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Innovation and Adaptation

in the Climate Crisis:

Technology for the New Normal

INSIGHT REPORT

JANUARY 2024

In collaboration with

Boston Consulting Group

Images: Getty Images

be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying

and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system.

Disclaimer

This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a

project, insight area or interaction. The ﬁndings, interpretations and conclusions

expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the

World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the

World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders.

Contents

Foreword 3

Executive summary 4

Introduction 5

1 Comprehend risks (and opportunities) 12

1.1 Drones for data collection 14

1.2 IoT and sensors for data collection 14

1.3 Earth observation for planetary intelligence 15

1.4 Artiﬁcial intelligence 16

1.5 AR/VR to visualize climate impacts 19

1.6 Advanced computing to power intelligence 20

2 Build resilience 21

2.1 Climate-resilient infrastructure 24

2.2 Climate-resilient food systems 25

2.3 Resilient global supply chains 26

2.4 Advanced early warning systems 27

3 Respond dynamically 28

3.1 The ﬁrst 72 hours 30

3.2 AI for humanitarian data collection 30

3.3 Earth observation for post-disaster analytics 31

3.4 AI for post-crisis decision-making 32

3.5 Drones to optimize search-and-rescue operations 33

3.6 AI to optimize mobility and evacuations 33

4 Multistakeholder collaboration and key enablers 35

4.1 Open source is the unlock 37

4.2 Repositioning adaptation to attract ﬁnance 40

4.3 Policy and regulation as a catalyst 41

Conclusion 42

Contributors 43

Endnotes 45

Innovation and Adaptation in the Climate Crisis 2

Foreword

Recent years have seen extreme weather events

wrack the globe – from the 2021 ﬂooding in

Germany to this past year’s wildﬁres in Hawaii,

Eastern Canada and Australia – leaving little doubt

that the impacts of climate change are arriving.

The climate science is clear that these impacts will

become more volatile: the continuation of current

emissions and nature degradation correlate with

increased sudden- and slow-onset events within

this decade. Mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG)

emissions has never been more urgent. At the same

time, communities, businesses and governments

must adapt to present and oncoming changes.

Adaptation is the process of evolving to the effects

of change – in this case, adjusting ecological, social

and economic systems to alleviate the impacts of

climate change. This includes crisis response for

extreme events such as ﬂooding and wildﬁres. It

also encompasses multi-faceted, agile approaches

for navigating a world where reliable climate and

weather conditions can no longer be taken for

granted. Leaders need new forms of intelligence

to build resilience into their communities and

businesses. Along the way, ﬁrst-movers will ﬁnd

this is not only a risk mitigation strategy but also a

source of competitive advantage.

There are multiple interdependent approaches to

climate adaptation, including economic incentives,

policy and regulation, locally-led intervention, and

nature-based approaches. Technology is a key

enabler across all of them – helping leaders not only

to assess climate risk but also to identify solutions

and to build resilience in the real world. Data-driven

and digital technologies, in particular, will be a critical

source of adaptive value protection and creation.

Advances in these technologies – particularly

artiﬁcial intelligence (AI) – have been one of the

major stories of 2023. This report outlines the roles

that data-driven and digital technologies can play in

supporting climate adaptation, from strengthening

risk analytics and climate-prooﬁng supply chains to

powering R&D and discovery processes to yield the

next generation of climate technologies.

The Tech for Climate Adaptation Working Group,

hosted by the World Economic Forum’s Centre

for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, convened

to develop this report and advance applications

and knowledge related to technology for climate

adaptation. The working group includes leaders and

experts from technology, industry, the public sector,

academia and civil society. Its members have been

essential to charting the scope of this report and

bringing domain-speciﬁc insight to its chapters.

There is no technological silver bullet for climate

change. More to the point, there is no substitute for

deep and swift mitigation of GHG emissions. The

impacts of climate change are here and cannot be

ignored. Technology offers a way to manage these

impacts – to adapt and bring more clarity to an

uncertain future.

Helen Burdett

Head, Technology for Earth,

World Economic Forum

Hamid Maher

Managing Director

and Partner, Boston

Consulting Group

Innovation and Adaptation in the Climate Crisis:

Technology for the New Normal

January 2024

Innovation and Adaptation in the Climate Crisis 3

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IncollaborationwithBostonConsultingGroupInnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis:TechnologyfortheNewNormalINSIGHTREPORTJANUARY2024Images:GettyImagesContentsForeword3Executivesummary4Introduction51Comprehendrisks(andopportunities)121.1Dronesfordatacollection141.2IoTandsensorsfordatacollection141.3Earthobservationforplanetaryintelligence151.4Artificialintelligence161.5AR/VRtovisualizeclimateimpacts191.6Advancedcomputingtopowerintelligence202Buildresilience212.1Climate-resilientinfrastructure242.2Climate-resilientfoodsystems252.3Resilientglobalsupplychains262.4Advancedearlywarningsystems273Responddynamically283.1Thefirst72hours303.2AIforhumanitariandatacollection303.3Earthobservationforpost-disasteranalytics313.4AIforpost-crisisdecision-making323.5Dronestooptimizesearch-and-rescueoperations333.6AItooptimizemobilityandevacuations334Multistakeholdercollaborationandkeyenablers354.1Opensourceistheunlock374.2Repositioningadaptationtoattractfinance404.3Policyandregulationasacatalyst41Conclusion42Contributors43Endnotes45DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.©2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis2January2024InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis:TechnologyfortheNewNormalForewordHelenBurdettHamidMaherHead,TechnologyforEarth,ManagingDirectorWorldEconomicForumandPartner,BostonConsultingGroupRecentyearshaveseenextremeweathereventsenableracrossallofthem–helpingleadersnotonlywracktheglobe–fromthe2021floodingintoassessclimateriskbutalsotoidentifysolutionsGermanytothispastyear’swildfiresinHawaii,andtobuildresilienceintherealworld.Data-drivenEasternCanadaandAustralia–leavinglittledoubtanddigitaltechnologies,inparticular,willbeacriticalthattheimpactsofclimatechangearearriving.sourceofadaptivevalueprotectionandcreation.TheclimatescienceisclearthattheseimpactswillAdvancesinthesetechnologies–particularlybecomemorevolatile:thecontinuationofcurrentartificialintelligence(AI)–havebeenoneoftheemissionsandnaturedegradationcorrelatewithmajorstoriesof2023.Thisreportoutlinestherolesincreasedsudden-andslow-onseteventswithinthatdata-drivenanddigitaltechnologiescanplayinthisdecade.Mitigatinggreenhousegas(GHG)supportingclimateadaptation,fromstrengtheningemissionshasneverbeenmoreurgent.Atthesameriskanalyticsandclimate-proofingsupplychainstotime,communities,businessesandgovernmentspoweringR&Danddiscoveryprocessestoyieldthemustadapttopresentandoncomingchanges.nextgenerationofclimatetechnologies.AdaptationistheprocessofevolvingtotheeffectsTheTechforClimateAdaptationWorkingGroup,ofchange–inthiscase,adjustingecological,socialhostedbytheWorldEconomicForum’sCentreandeconomicsystemstoalleviatetheimpactsoffortheFourthIndustrialRevolution,convenedclimatechange.Thisincludescrisisresponsefortodevelopthisreportandadvanceapplicationsextremeeventssuchasfloodingandwildfires.Itandknowledgerelatedtotechnologyforclimatealsoencompassesmulti-faceted,agileapproachesadaptation.Theworkinggroupincludesleadersandfornavigatingaworldwherereliableclimateandexpertsfromtechnology,industry,thepublicsector,weatherconditionscannolongerbetakenforacademiaandcivilsociety.Itsmembershavebeengranted.Leadersneednewformsofintelligenceessentialtochartingthescopeofthisreportandtobuildresilienceintotheircommunitiesandbringingdomain-specificinsighttoitschapters.businesses.Alongtheway,first-moverswillfindthisisnotonlyariskmitigationstrategybutalsoaThereisnotechnologicalsilverbulletforclimatesourceofcompetitiveadvantage.change.Moretothepoint,thereisnosubstitutefordeepandswiftmitigationofGHGemissions.TheTherearemultipleinterdependentapproachestoimpactsofclimatechangearehereandcannotbeclimateadaptation,includingeconomicincentives,ignored.Technologyoffersawaytomanagethesepolicyandregulation,locally-ledintervention,andimpacts–toadaptandbringmoreclaritytoannature-basedapproaches.Technologyisakeyuncertainfuture.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis3ExecutivesummaryTheimpactsofclimatechangeareintensifyinganddata-drivenanddigitaltechnologiescanhelp.Theimpactsofclimatechange–intheformofanddronesaretransforminghowleadersgather,extremeandslow-onsetevents–areincreasingprocessandanalyseinformation.Theseinfrequencyandintensity.TheWorldEconomictechnologiesprovideintelligenceonhowtheEarthisForum’s2024GlobalRisksReportrankedextremechangingattheplanetarylevelandhowtheimpactsweathereventsasthesecond-mostsevereriskmaybefeltbybusinessesandlocalcommunities.overthenexttwoyears–andthemostsevereovera10-yearhorizon.Nearlyhalfoftheworld’sBuildingresilienceagainstclimateimpacts–populationisvulnerabletotheimpactsofclimateAIishelpingbuildresilienceintocriticalinfrastructure,change.Virtuallyeverysectoroftheglobaleconomysuchasfloodmanagementsystems,throughisexposedtosomedegreeofclimate-relatedrisk.optimizationandreal-timemaintenance.EarthobservationandIoTarebringingnewprecisiontoTechnologyisintegraltobuildingadaptivecapacity,criticalresiliencetoolssuchasearly-warningsystems.propellinginnovationandbringingnewcapabilitiestoleadersandcommunities.ThereisnotechnologicalRespondingdynamicallywhenimpactshit–panaceathatcantackleclimatechange;thereEarthobservation,alongwithdrones,canprovideisnosubstitutefordeepandswiftmitigationaviewofhard-to-reachareasintheaftermathofanofgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions.However,extremeevent.Dronesarealsobeingusedtomaketechnology–specificallydata-drivenanddigitaldeliveriesofemergencyaidandsupportsearch-and-technology–canhelpleadersmanagethemountingrescueoperations.AI’scapabilitiesforpredictionandrisksassociatedwithclimateimpactsandunlockoptimizationimprovesituationalawareness.newopportunitiesalongtheway.Anemergingsetoftechnologies–allsynergisticwithartificialTheclimatecrisisdemandsadaptation.Data-intelligence(AI)andadvancedcomputing–supportdrivenanddigitaltechnologiesalreadyplayaacomprehensivestrategyforadaptationandplayamission-criticalroleinadaptationeffortsacrosskeyroleateachstageofthe“adaptationcycle”:theworld;theyarepoisedforscaledadoptionandgreaterimpactwhensupportedbyopenComprehendingrisksandopportunities–collaboration,improvedfinancingandanenablingAI,Earthobservation,theinternetofthings(IoT)policyenvironment.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis4IntroductionTowardsatechnology-ledapproachtoclimateadaptation.Itisofficial–2023wasthehottestyearinrecorded$200billion–40%greaterthantheannualaveragehistory.1JunewasthewarmestJuneonrecord,forthepast20years(excludingearthquakes).8JulythewarmestJuly,AugustthewarmestAugust,SeptemberthewarmestSeptemberandOctoberExtremeweathereventsarenottheonlyimpactsthewarmestOctober.2Acrosstheyear,roughlyofclimatechange.Slowonsetevents,9suchasoneineverythreedaysbreachedthe1.5ºCincreasingglobaltemperatures,aredamagingthreshold.3Climatechangeisacceleratingatanagriculture,biodiversityandhumanhealth.unprecedentedpace.Glaciersandpolaricecapsaremelting,withrisingsealevelsthreateningcoastalcommunitiesThefalloutisevident.4Thenumberofextremethrougherosion,floodingandsaltwaterintrusion.weatherevents,suchasheatwaves,wildfiresandSeasonalprecipitationpatternsarechanging,hurricanes,hasincreasedinrecentyears.5Iftheseresultingingreaterrainfallinsomeareasandtrendspersist,extremeeventscouldincreasetodesertificationinothers.TheUnitedNations5606ayearby2030–1.5aday–representingaEnvironmentProgramme’sDavidJensenstates,40%increaseover2015.7Inadditiontohuman“Inmanypartsoftheworld,thepredictabilitysuffering,thecostsarehuge;in2022,naturalthatusedtoexistinseasonalweatherpatternsdisasterscostgovernmentsandbusinessesoverissimplygone”.FIGURE1AllindustriesareexposedtosomelevelofclimateriskthroughacuteandchronichazardsIndustries(selection)InfrastructureOilandUtilitiesMiningAgricultureManufacturingFashionTransportHealthgasandluxuryDroughtFloodingFreezingChronicPhysicalclimateriskAcuteSeverestormTropicalcycloneWildﬁreWinterstorm/hailHighertemperatureMeltingice/permafrostEcosystemdisruptionEmployeehealthEquipmentefﬁciencySealevelriseWaterscarcityLowriskHighriskIndicativeSources:BCGanalysis;Zawadzki,Annika,LorenzoFantiniandGiovanniCovazzi,"ComingtoGripswithCorporateClimateRisk",BCG,20November2023,https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/coming-to-grips-with-corporate-climate-risk.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis5In2019,theClimatechangetodaythreatenspeople,businessesmostadaptabletochange.Thus,theseindicatorsGlobalCommissionandnature.Invulnerableregionsacrosstheworld,notonlyheightentheurgencyformitigatingonAdaptationbetween3.3and3.6billionpeopleareexposedtoanthropogenicimpactsontheclimatebutalsobringestimatedtheimpactsofclimatechange.10“Theimpactsofattentiontotheneedforpeople,businessesandthatinvestingclimatechange,whilefeltglobally,dodependongovernmentstoadapt.$1.8trillioninwhereintheworldyouare.Thevulnerablearehitclimateadaptationthehardest,”saysChristerSolheimGundersenofInrecentyears,studieshaveestimatedtheeconomicmeasuresbyNorwegianAgencyforDevelopmentCooperationdamagesassociatedwithclimateimpactsandthe2030couldyield(NORAD).Inbusiness,$4trillionincorporateassetspossiblebenefitsoftacklingthem.In2019,theGlobal$7.1trillionincouldbeatriskby2030duetotheimpactsofCommissiononAdaptationestimatedthatinvestingnetbenefits.climatechange.11Nearlyeverysectoroftheglobal$1.8trillioninclimateadaptationmeasuresby2030economyisexposedtosomedegreeofclimate-couldyield$7.1trillioninnetbenefits.13Basedoninducedrisk(seeFigure1).Inthenaturalworld,sixtheseestimatesandotheranalyses,anincreasingofnineplanetaryboundarieshavebeencrossed,12numberofgovernmentshaveenactedlawsandpaintingagrimpictureoftheEarth’shealth.issuedprotocolsrelatedtoclimateadaptation.Climatic,naturalandsocioeconomicsystemsmayThenumberofcountrieswithnationaladaptationbeclosetotippingpoints,whererelativelysmallplansisincreasingyear-on-year.14Moreover,thechangesleadtoirreversibleshifts.emergenceofclimate-resilientindustriesandtechnologies,suchasresilientagriculture,haveAshistoryshows,itisnotthestrongestspeciespresentedopportunitiesforgovernmentsandthatsurvivesnorthemostintelligent–butthosebusinessesto“climate-proof”theirfutures.BOX1ClimateadaptationdefinitionNotes:1.BasedontheUNFCCCdefinition;2.Encompassesactivitiesreferredtoas“climateresilience”Actionstakentoadjustprocesses,or“adaptationandresilience”.practicesandstructurestomoderatepotentialdamagesortobenefitfromopportunitiesassociatedwiththeeffectsofclimatechange.NumerousadaptationstrategieshavebeenData-drivenanddigitaltechnologiesareuniquelydevelopedtomaketheworldmoreresilienttosuitedtobuildadaptivecapacityandtacklethetheimpactsofclimatechange.Theyrangefrommulti-variable,complexproblemsinvolvedinbuildingstrongerinfrastructureanddevelopingearlyclimatedecision-making(seeFigure2).Thesewarningsystemstoimplementingfloodcontroltechnologiescandealwiththeinter-connectednessmeasuresandchangingagriculturalpractices.ofnatural,socioeconomicandeconomicThesestrategiesbroadlyfallintofourgroups:systems,copewithmanyvariablesanddegreesregulatory,economic,socioculturalandnature-ofuncertainty,andalignclimateactionacrossbased.Takentogether,theseinterdependentmultipletimehorizonsandimperatives.Onthisstrategiescanbeviewedthroughthelensoflaterpoint,NaokoIshii,DirectoroftheCenterforwhatclimateandsocialscientistscalladaptiveGlobalCommonsattheUniversityofTokyo,says,capacity.15AccordingtoGailWhiteman,Professor“Adaptationneedstotakealong-term,strategicofSustainabilityattheUniversityofExeterandviewpoint.Historically,adaptationhasbeenExecutiveDirectorofArticBasecamp,“It’sallaboutconsideredasashort-termoradhocresponsetobuildingadaptivecapacity.Focusingatthesystemsspecificevents–separatefrommitigationstrategy.leveltoadaptoursocial,ecologicalandeconomicDataandtechnologycanhelptoaligntheseprocesses.Indeed,wecanthinkofadaptationasstrategiesforthelong-term.”Thisisthekindofanongoingprocess”.intelligencethattheclimatecrisisdemands.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis6FIGURE2GlobalriskslandscapeIntrastateviolenceCensorshipandsurveillanceNaturalresourceshortagesInvoluntarymigrationErosionofhumanrightsMisinformationanddisinformationCriticalchangetoTerroristattacksAdverseoutcomesofEarthsystemsExtremeInterstatearmedconﬂictSocietalfrontiertechnologiesBiodiversitylossandweathereventsNon-weatherrelatednaturaldisasterspolarizationTechnologicalpowerecosystemcollapseconcentrationCyberinsecurityPollutionAdverseoutcomesInfectiousdiseasesofAItechnologiesChronichealthconditionsDisruptionstocriticalinfrastructureBiological,chemicalInsufﬁcientinfrastructureandservicesornuclearhazardsLackofeconomicopportunityDisruptionstoasystemicallyimportantsupplychainLabourshortagesConcentrationofGeoeconomicconfrontationstrategicresourcesInﬂationEconomicdownturnDebtUnemploymentIlliciteconomicactivityAssetbubbleburstsNodesEdgesRiskcategoriesEnvironmentalGeopolicticalSocietalTechnologicalRiskinﬂuenceRelativeinﬂuenceEconomicHighHighMediumMediumLowLowSource:WorldEconomicForum,GlobalRisksPerceptionSurvey2023-2024,2024Forgloballeaders,publicandprivatealike,data-adaptationrequirespolicydevelopment,communitydrivenanddigitaltechnologieswillcreateandengagementandinternationalcooperationtowork.protectvalue.TheywillenableleadersinawideAmultistakeholderapproachisessentialforeffortsrangeofways,fromsupportingdecision-makingtoscalerapidlyandadvancetheworld’sresponseandpoweringscientificdiscoverytochangingtoclimatechange.behaviours.Atthesametime,technology-basedInnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis7MappingthetechnologylandscapeAsetofdata-drivenanddigitaltechnologiesareemergingasmission-criticaltoolsforclimateadaptation.FIGURE3High-leveldefinitionsArtiﬁcialintelligenceDronesEarthobservationFamilyofmathematicalandcomputerUnmannedaerialvehicles(UAVs)thatcanRemote-sensing(e.g.satellites)orinsciencetechniques,includingadvancedbeequippedwithcameras,coverlargesitutechniques(e.g.weatherstations)analytics,bigdataanalytics,machinelearning,distancesandcarrysmallamountsofforgatheringinformationaboutactivitiesdeeplearningandlargelanguagemodels.physicalmaterial.onEarth.AdvancedcomputingIoTAR/VRSuper-computing(includingNetworkeddevices(includingsensorsandToolsthatprovideimmersiveexperiences,cloud-based)andquantumcomputinghand-helddevices)thatworktogethertoeitherbysuperimposingdigitalfeaturesonprocessesthatenhancecomputepower,collectandsharedataandmonitorphysicalenvironmentsorusinghardwareaccuracyandspeed.systems.(e.g.headsets)tofullyimmerseusers.Notes:Extendeddefinitiononp.16.Augmentedreality/virtualrealityTechnologiesoftheIndustrialRevolutionhaveuse,andsecondly,theirvastpotentialforimpactfulbeenasignificantdriverofclimatechange16–butcontribution.Consequently,emphasishasbeennewandemergingtechnologiescanhelpleadersplacedfirstlyontechnologiesthatcurrentlyadapttothechangingclimateofthe21stcentury.providevitalsolutionsforclimateadaptation,andTechnologywillenableleaderstoenhanceindustrysecondly,onthosethataredevelopingrapidlyandresilience,protectecosystemsandsafeguardareexpectedtoyieldsignificantbenefitsforfuturehumanwell-being.climateresilience.Aconfluenceoffactors,suchasscientificandMoreover,thesetechnologieshaveapplicationstechnologicaldevelopments,policysupport,marketacrossthedatalifecycle.17Eachphaseembodiesdemandandarisingsenseofurgency,aredrivingdifferentchallengesandopportunities.Thisreportthedevelopmentofpath-breakingtechnologiesthereforeendeavourstoexploretechnologiesforclimateadaptation.Thisconvergenceislocatedatvariousphasesofthelifecycle(e.g.howcatalysinginnovationandopeningnewpathwaysIoTcanbeusedfordatacollection;andmachinetobuildadaptivecapacityintoorganizationsandlearning(ML),furtherdownstream,fordataanalysis).communitiesworldwide.WhilethesixtechnologiesanalysedinthisreportIntroducingthetechnologiescanworkautonomously,theirimpactcanbeexpandedwhenusedinconcert.ThisreportAsetofdata-drivenanddigitaltechnologies–allcoversbothmodesofoperation.Forinstance,synergisticwithartificialintelligence(AI)–areinthewakeofahurricane,Earthobservationemergingasmission-criticaltoolsforclimatecanworkautonomouslytocaptureimagesofadaptation.Thespecifictechnologiesthataredamagedbuildings,ortheseimagescanbeusedthefocusofthisreportaredrones,theinternetwithAI-basedsystemstohelpinsurersprocessofthings(IoT),Earthobservation,augmenteddamageclaims.18andvirtualreality(ARandVR),advancedcomputingandAI.Together,theycompriseaTosecureasustainablefuture,advancedfirst-of-its-kindtoolkitforclimateadaptation.technologyshouldbecentredinclimateadaptationstrategies.ThekeyliesnotjustinGiventheurgencyoftheclimatecrisis,theselectiondevelopinganddeployingthesetechnologies,butofthesetechnologiesisbasedoneitheroftwoalsoinusingthemfordiscoveryprocessesthatwillkeycriteria:firstly,theirreadinessforimmediateinventfuturesolutions.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis8FIGURE4HowtechnologypowersclimateadaptationAIatthecoreIoTAR/VRThetechnologiesDronesAsuiteofadvancedtechnologies,AdvancedallsynergisticwithAI,areenteringcomputingthemainstreamandemergingascriticaltoolsforclimateadaptation.EarthThesetoolsarelocatedatdifferentobservationpointsofthedatalifecycle;theyaresometimesusedautonomously,Gather,completeandsometimesinconcert.processdataTheircapabilitiesStrengthenplanningThetechnologiesproduceasetofanddecision-makingcapabilitiesthatleaderscanapplyforreal-worldimpact.TheseOptimizeprocessescapabilitiesrangefrompredictiveinrealtimedecision-makingtonudgingbehaviourchange.Indifferentways,Powerdiscoverythesecapabilitiesrelyondigitalprocessesintelligence–andallarevaluablefordrivingclimateadaptation.NudgeadaptivebehavioursComprehendrisksTheadaptationcycledopportunitiesLeaderscanputthesecapabilitiestoworkintheirclimateadaptation1anstrategies.AneffectiveandBuildresiliencecomprehensivestrategyfollowsthe“adaptationcycle”,whichgainstfutureimpactencompasses:1)comprehendingarisksandopportunities,2)buildingyresilienceagainstfutureimpacts,2sAdaptationand3)respondingdynamicallyRwhenclimateimpactshit.cycle3InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis9esponddynamicallwhenimpactshitThekeyliesnotThe“sowhat”–thecapabilitiesproblems–forexample,identifyingatraderoutejustindevelopingrisingfromadvancedtechnologythatminimizesclimaterisk–andcaniterateanddeployingthroughmultiplestrategiesuntiltheyhaveidentifiedthesetechnologies,Torealizetechnology’spotentialforadaptation,thebestoutcome.Additionally,thesealgorithmsbutalsoinusingitisimportanttounderstandthecapabilitiescanrapidlyadjustparameters(e.g.intheeventofthemfordiscoverythatitprovidestoleaders.Thesetofadvancedanunexpectedclimateshocktothesupplychain)processesthattechnologiesfeaturedinthisreportsupportstheandprovidedynamicupdates.willinventfuturedevelopmentoffivedifferentcapabilities:solutions.Powerdiscoveryprocesses:AIistransformingGather,processandcompletedatasets:sciencebecauseofthevolumesandformsofdataTechnologyenablesleaderstoworkwithvast(i.e.structuredandunstructureddata)itcanstudyamountsofinformation.Forinstance,privateandthespeedatwhichitcandoso.Thatishowcompanieshavelaunchedtheirownsatellites,deeplearningtools,suchasGoogleDeepMind’sexpandingthecollectionofplanetarydata.IoT,AlphaFold,havepioneeredmethodstodetermineontheotherhand,allowsforsensorplatformsthatthestructureofproteinsfromthesequenceofcollectlocalizeddata.AIenablessummaryofthisaminoacids.20Similarly,climateandweatherdata19anddeliversnewcapabilitiestocompleteresearchersareusingAItoapproximatecomplextemporally-andspatially-sparsedatasets.physicalandchemicalphenomenaandembedtheminnext-generationmodellingsystems.21AsStrengthenplanninganddecision-making:MehdiGhissassi,DirectorandHeadofProductatTheflagshipcapabilityofAIistostudycomplexDeepMindhassaid,“AIishelpinghumansgenerateproblemsandpredictfutureeffects.Thesenewknowledgethatexpandsourunderstandingofpredictivepowersaretransformingplanningandvariousscientificfields.Theseadvancescanleaddecision-making.Forinstance,AImakesitpossibletobetteroutcomesinthelifesciences,climate,tocalculatethefinancial,operationalandsocialandenergy,amongotherfields”.impactsofaninvestmentinclimateresilience–and,crucially,topredictthecostsofinaction.BothareNudgeadaptivebehaviour:Inmanyessentialtoprioritizepotentialactionsandallocatedomains,climateactionrequireschangeattheresourcesefficiently.behaviourallevel.Technologycanbeappliedinconsumer-oruser-facingsystems(e.g.productOptimizeprocessesinreal-time:AIperformsrecommendations,socialmedia,etc.)toweighbestwhengivenenoughdatatocapturedecisionsinfavourofadaptiveorrisk-reducingunderlyingpatterns.CertainclassesofMLchoices.22Additionally,emergingtechnologiessuchalgorithmsarewell-suitedforoptimizationasAR/VRcanprovideimmersiveexperiencesthatgiveusersavisceralsenseofclimateimpacts.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis10LeadersmustTheclimateadaptationcycleAdvancedtechnologyhasaremarkableabilitytopickask:Howdooutanomaliesand‘weakcues’fromhugeamountswebuildshort-Howcanthesetechnologiesandtheircapabilitiesofdata.Wearestartingtoseethethreatsbeforeandlong-termbeappliedtoclimateadaptation,specifically?Sincetheyoccur”.resilience?HowAIandotheradvancedtechnologieshaveenteredcanweprotectthemainstream,technologyandbusinessplayersBuildresilience:Thenextstepistobuildresilienceagainstbothhaveracedtofindcommercialapplications.Whileagainstfutureclimatechangeimpactsandunlocksudden-onsetthemarketvalueofthesetechnologiesisevident,newopportunitiesalongtheway.Leadersmusteventsandslow-itisimportanttosurfacetheclimatevalueofask:Howdowebuildshort-andlong-termonsetevents?technology,too.Thesubsequentsectionsofthisresilience?Howcanweprotectagainstbothreportwillserveasamapforhowtechnologycansudden-onsetevents,suchasextremeweather,beappliedtoclimateadaptation.andslow-onsetevents,suchasdesertificationorsea-levelrise?HowwillouractionsalignwithClimateadaptationisamulti-stageprocesscurrentbusinessoroperatingmodels–whatdoweinvolvingdifferentstrategies,investments,risksandstandtogainbybuildingresilience?rewards.Thisreportreferstotheprocessasthe“adaptationcycle”,consistingofthreestages:Responddynamically:Whentheimpactsofclimatechangearerealized–forinstance,whenanextremeComprehendrisks(andopportunities):Thefirstweathereventoccurs–leadersmustbepreparedstageintheclimateadaptationcycleistounderstandtorespond.Theymustevaluatehowtoprioritizetherisks–and,insomecases,opportunities–hardware,softwareandhumanresponseeffortsassociatedwiththeimpactsofclimatechange.optimally.ThisoptimizationcanbethedifferenceinLeadersshouldask:Whatarethemainriskswesavinglives,ecosystemsandeconomicvalue.face,andhowvulnerablearewe?Whatisthepotentialimpactonourbusinesses,communitiesTechnologyisacriticaltoolacrossallthreestepsandstakeholders–andhowdowequantifythatoftheadaptationcycle.DavidJensenofUNEPimpact?Onwhattimeline(s)willtheseimpactsstates,“Technologyispowerfulforhelpingustooccur?GailWhitemanstates,“Youcan’tadaptifunderstandtheaccumulationofdifferenttypesofyoudon’tknowwhatimpactsarecomingatyou.risk–tounderstandthatriskindifferentscenariosandacrossdifferenttime-scales”.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis111Comprehendrisks(andopportunities)Adaptationstartswithcomprehendinghowclimate-inducedrisk–and,insomecases,opportunities–manifestforspecificgeographies,communitiesandassets.FIGURE5Technologymapforstage1:Comprehendrisksandopportunities1ComprehendrisksNote:Whereapplicationsemploymultipletechnologiesinandopportunitiesconcert,groupingsareindexedtotheprimarytechnology.Gather,Dronesforaerialdatacollectioncompleteande.g.aerialdatacollectionofphysicalassetstoassessprocessdatavulnerabilitytoclimaterisksStrengthenIoTfordistributeddatacollectionplanningande.g.networkedheatsensorstodetectwildﬁresdecision-makingEarthobservationforplanetaryintelligenceNudgee.g.satellite-enableddatacollectiontoadvancescientiﬁcadaptiveunderstandingofatmosphericconditionsbehavioursCross-cuttingAIforﬁllingdatagapse.g.missingvalueinferencetocompletetemporally-orspatially-sparsedatasetsAIforclimatemodellinge.g.digitaltwinoftheplanet,usingAItodepictclimaticconditionswithgreaterresolutionAIforweathermodellinge.g.AI/MLsurrogatesthatuseinferencetodown-scaleandtailorintelligencetospeciﬁcregionsorhazardsAIforclimateriskanalyticse.g.AI-poweredriskassessmentsthatpin-pointexposureinvaluechainsandquantifythecostofinactionAR/VRtovisualizeclimateimpactse.g.immersivedigitalexperiencesthatshowusershowpolartippingpointswillimpactrisingsealevelsAdvancedcomputingtopowerintelligencee.g.cloud-basedsupercomputingtopowerGPU-basedclimatemodelsandmakethemaccessibleInnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis12LeadersmustForpublic-andprivate-sectorleadersalike,Assessvulnerability:Onceorganizationsdevelopancomprehendingclimateriskbeginswithanunderstandexposure(e.g.theprobabilityofaevidence-basedexerciseofassessment.Climateriskscanhurricanehittingafactory),theymustassessunderstandingbegroupedintoseveralcategoriesbasedonvulnerabilitytoclimaterisk(e.g.thestructuralofthepotentialtheirnatureandsource.Thisfacilitatesariskintegrityofthefactoryanditsresiliencetocostsofclimateassessmentprocess,whichentailsanalysingthewithstandinghighwinds).Byidentifyingtheextentchangeifleftconsequences,probabilitiesandresponsestotowhichtheircoreassetsandcriticalsupplychainsunaddressed;thisclimateimpacts.Climateriskassessmentscallonarevulnerable,organizationscanfigureoutwhere“costofinaction”organizationsto:toinvestandbuildresilience.cansupportthedecisiontoinvestMaptheriskcategoriesthatmayaffectassetsEstimatethecostofinaction:Takingactiontoinresilience.andoperations:Riskscantaketheformofadapttoclimatechangecanrequiresignificantphysicalrisks,suchasadamagedfactory,andcapitalandoperationalexpense.Leadersmusttransitionrisks,suchasclimatepolicychangesdevelopanevidence-basedunderstandingandchangingconsumerpreferences.23Theserisksofthepotentialcostsofclimatechangeifleftcanimpactanorganization’scapitalassetsandunaddressed;this“costofinaction”cansupportoperations(includingthepeoplethatoperationsthedecisiontoinvestinresilience.Forinstance,thedependon,fromemployeestovendors).ThiscityofLagoshasbuiltanadaptationandresiliencereport’sfocusisonthetechnologiesthatsitbehindplanthatquantifiesthecostsofsea-levelriseriskassessment.andextremeweather.ThisdataishelpingLagos’leaderstobrokernovelpublic-privatepartnershipsUnderstandtheextentofexposure:Leadersandraisefinancestobuildclimateresilienceagainstmustdeterminehowexposedtheyaretothethosepotentialimpacts.25climaterisksthatthreatentheircommunities,naturalandeconomicassets,andvaluechains.DuetoHowadvancedtechnologyisshapingclimatethewiderangeofexposure,leadersmustconductintelligence:Data-drivenanddigitaltechnologiesanalysesthatusehistoricaldataandvarioushaveawiderangeofapplicationsforthefirst“what-if”scenarios.Certainstakeholdersmuststageoftheadaptationcycle.Furthermore,theseconsidereventsthathavenohistoricalprecedent.technologiesareadvancingrapidly;theyareForinstance,howwillmeltingArcticiceimpactdifferentiatedfromlegacytechnologiesthatcouldmaritimeshippingroutes?Howwillthisimpacthowprovidesimilarcapabilities;andtheyrepresentabusinessesmanagetheirsupplychains,andhowstep-changeinadaptationcapabilities,asmadegovernmentsapproachforeigntrade?24evidentbythefollowingapplications:InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis131.1DronesfordatacollectionHowitworks:Unmannedaerialvehicles(UAVs)Howit’sinnovative:Dronesprovidehigh-resolutionordronescapturevisualdatafromtheairwiththeimages,especiallyofremoteareasthataredifficultaidofadvancedcameras,26withwhichtheycanforhumanstosurvey.Theycanbeequippedwithbeequipped.Theycovervastdistances,mappingsophisticatedequipment,suchassensorstodetectfactorysites,supplychainsandnaturalsystems.anomalies,andgeo-positioningsystemstotrackOrganizationscananalysethevisualdatatoidentifylocationwithhighprecision.Connectedtotheimpactsrelatedtoclimatechange.Forinstance,acloud,dronescangenerateandstorevastamountsfactorymanagermayusedronestomonitorwaterofdatathatAIcanprocessandanalyseinrealtime.sourcesthatarecriticaltoitsoperations.INNOVATIONSPOTLIGHT:CapgeminihasrecentlyformedapartnershipwithcomprehendtheirlevelofexposuretoclimateIBMtoprovideanovel“drones-as-a-service”(DaaS)impacts(e.g.theproximityofphysicalassetstoplatform.27Theplatformenablesuserstomanagefloodplains).DaaSalsoexemplifieshowadvancedandmonitorafleetofdrones,carryoutinspectiontechnologiesmaybeusedinconcert,asithasmissionsandcapturehigh-resolutionvisualdata.thepotentialtoconnectwithtechnologieslikeIoTInanadaptationcontext,thedronescouldrunsensors,5Gandedgecomputing,therebyimprovingaerialsurveysofphysicalassets,helpingleadersthemonitoringandvisualizationofphysicalassets.1.2IoTandsensorsfordatacollectionFormachines,Howitworks:ThroughIoTnetworks,companiesHowit’sinnovative:IoTmeldsphysicalworlds,sensorsaretheircanembeddeviceswithsensorsandprocessorsandthings,withvirtualworldsanddata.AsMichaelwindowintothatallowthemtocommunicatewitheachother.Spranger,ChiefOperatingOfficerofSonyAIhastheworld.IoTenablesleaderstogathernewkindsofdata,said,“Formachines,sensors(IoT)aretheirwindowsuchaschangesinairquality,temperatureandintotheworld”.IoTsensorscantransmitdataambientlighting.Forexample,sensornetworksacrossdevices(suchascamerasandhand-heldcanbeusedtodetectwildfiresandprovidedevices,creatinganinterconnectedanddistributedadvancednoticetoforestrystations.Smartphoneswebofinformation)carrydatainreal-timetoaareinvaluabletoolsinIoTnetworks,too.Theycentralizednodeandtransmitdatafromsensorscanserveasdistributeddata-gatheringplatforms,tocommunicationtools.Forinstance,sensorsthatturningindividualsinto“citizenscientists”whotrackdetectwildfirescanpushmobilephonealertstochangesintheirlocalenvironments.28peopleintheaffectedarea.INNOVATIONSPOTLIGHT:PanoAIisaCalifornia-basedcompanythatinformationtothosethatneedit.PanoAIisnowprovidesaconnected,IoT-basedplatformformonitoringover5millionacresandhadthousandsdetectingwildfiresanddisseminatinginformationoffiredetectionsin2022.AccordingtoChieftofireprofessionalsandfirstresponders.PanoAI’sExecutiveOfficer,SoniaKastner,“Thisisthemostsolution,PanoRapidDetect,combinesultra-high-powerfulsolutionouttherefordetectingwildfires.definitioncamerasplacedonhighvantagepoints,Anditisnotexperimental.Wearealreadyhavinggeospatialdataandotherthird-partydatafeedsimpactanddeliveringnewcapabilitiestofirsttorapidlydetectwildfiresandpushactionablerespondersandemergencymanagerstoday”.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis141.3EarthobservationforplanetaryintelligenceHowitworks:Earthobservationisthegatheringfromspace.32SatelliteEarthobservationisofinformationaboutEarth’sactivitiesandfundamentallychangingthedatalayerforclimatecharacteristics.29Thisisachievedthroughbothscience,providingvastamountsofinformationremotesensingtechnologies(e.g.satellite-enabledaboutplanetarycharacteristics.Morethandatacollection)and“insitu”datasources(e.g.100terabytesofsatelliteimagerydataaretemperaturereadingsfromathermometer).Earthcollecteddaily–andthatnumbercontinuestoobservationtechnologiesenableleaderstomonitorgrow.33AccordingtoPierre-PhilippeMathieu,andmeasurethenaturalenvironmentwithbreadthImplementingManageroftheCivilSecurityfromandprecision.Forexample,somesatellitescanSpaceProgrammeoftheEuropeanSpaceAgencymonitorlargeswathesofforestduringawildfire,30(ESA),“Earthobservationsatellitessuchas[thewhileotherscantracetemperaturechangesofESA’s]CopernicusmissionsareroutinelydeliveringEarthfeaturesassmallas3.5metres.31largeamountsofdataonthestateofourplanet,whichareusedtodevelopthenextgenerationofHowit’sinnovative:Over50%ofclimateinformationservicessupportingmanagementofvariablescanonlybemeasuredatscaleplanetaryresources.”INNOVATIONSPOTLIGHT:TheESA,throughitsEarthExplorersprogramme,mapping(FLEXmission),whichassessesplanethaslaunched10researchsatellitemissions.Thesehealthandstress,andbiomassmonitoringmissions,proposedanddesignedbythescientific(Biomassmission),whichwillfurtherthescientificcommunity,haveunlockednewknowledgecommunity’sunderstandingofforests.ESAhasabouttheclimatesystem,includingatmosphericplanstolaunchtwonewmissions,EarthExplorerdynamics,icemeltandfreshwaterresources.The11and12,inthecomingyears.Additionally,satellitemissionshaveemployedarangeofnovelEarthExplorersprovidessupportfordevelopingtechniquesforgatheringdata,includingfar-infraredoperationalmissions,includingthesuiteofradiationmonitoring(FORUMmission),whichwillCopernicusSentinelmissions.34enhanceclimatemodels,vegetationfluorescenceInnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis151.4ArtificialintelligenceAIisoneofHowitworks:TheMassachusettsInstituteof–DeliveringimprovedpredictionstheseenablingTechnologydefinesAIastheabilityofcomputerstechnologiesthattoimitatecomplex,cognitivefunctionssuchas–Suggestingoptimalactionsandwillpermeatelearningandproblem-solving.35AIusesmathandrecommendationstoreachtargets.everythingwedologictosimulatetheformsofhumanreasoningthatashumans.helppeoplelearnfromnewinformationandmakeTheseusecasescanbeattainedbyapplyingadecisions.Thissetofmathematicalandcomputerwiderangeoftechniques,includingadvancedsciencetechniquesanalysedatatohelpusersanalytics,ML,deeplearningandgenerativemodels.understandandnavigatereal-worldphenomenaby:MichaelSprangerstates,“AIisoneoftheseenablingtechnologiesthatwillpermeateeverything–Providingbetterinformation36wedoashumans”.AIforfillingdatagapsHowit’sinnovative:AI–andML,specifically–iscontinuallyrefiningpredictionsuntiltheinternalapowerfultoolforfillinginandvalidatingdatasets.modelisaccurateenoughforanalysis.Importantly,MLalgorithmscanemploytechniques,suchasthisAIcapabilitycanbeusedforstructuredmissing-valueinference,totransformincompleteandunstructureddata.AsVijayKarunmurthy,andunstructureddatasetsintousableinformation.FieldChiefTechnologyOfficeratScaleAI,hasForexample,MLalgorithmscanidentifypatternssaid,“AIisreallygoodwithbothstructuredindatatoconstructaprediction–aninference–andunstructureddata.Itcanworkasakindofforthedatathatismissing.Thealgorithmsthenaugmentedco-pilotandhelpusnavigatemassiveruntestsonthisinferencetoassessitsaccuracy,datasets”.INNOVATIONSPOTLIGHT:In2022,theFireAIdproject,acollaborationHaticeYildirim,DigitalTransformationProgrammebetweenKoCHoldingsandtheWorldEconomicManageratKoCHoldings,underscorestheForum,launchedapilotprogramthatusedAIimportanceofusingAIforfillingdatagaps:“InitialtomapandpredictwildfiresinTurkey.ThepilottestsshowedthatsomeofourforestrydatasetswaslaunchedinthewakeofTurkey’sworst-everwereupto42%incorrectorincomplete.Ourwildfireseason,whichsawfiresburn1,400squareengineersleveragedAImethodstoimprovethekilometresofforest.FireAIdbuiltanAI-powereddatasetstothepointwheretheycouldbeusedtosolutionthatsuccessfullypredictedwildfireswithmakehigh-confidencepredictions”.an80%accuracyrate.IndevelopingFireAId,InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis16AIforweatherandclimatemodellingHowit’sinnovative:AIispoweringtheGPT-3andGPT-4,theyneverthelessrelyonvastdevelopmentofweatherandclimatemodels37thatamountsofdatatomakeaccuratepredictions.offerastep-changeintermsofsophisticationandAIcandiscoverrelationshipsbetweenandwithinprecision.Theseadvancescanbecategorizedindatasetstoallowforecastingsystemstoingestdatatwoways:1)improvingtraditional,mathematics-fromawidevarietyofsources.Forexample,AIhasbasedsimulations,and2)replacingthoseadvancedthescientificcommunity’sunderstandingsimulationscompletelywithAIsurrogates.ofoceancurrentspeedbyincorporatingdataonseasurfacetemperatureintooceanicmodels–afeatthat1.Improvingtraditionalweatherandclimateresearcherscouldnotindependentlyperform.39WithsimulationswithAIAIunderthehood,weatherandclimatemodelscanconsumemoredata,frommoreplaces,inmoreforms.Generatevastamountsofhigh-qualitydata:AIisbecomingahouseholdnamewhenitcomestoCapturecomplexphysicalprocesses:Inlargepartdataintake.Toputthingsinperspective,OpenAI’sduetoadvancedcomputing(seeBox1)advancedGPT-3,thepredecessortoChatGPT’sfoundationmodelscanruncomplexsimulationsoftheweathermodel,hasapproximately175billionparameters.38andclimateathighresolution.40ThesesimulationsGPT-4isthoughttohaveover1trillionparameters.cantraceanarchofchangingclimateconditions,enablingnear-real-timeforecasting(NRT).ThisWhileweatherandclimatemodelsincludefewercapabilityisessentialforforecastingsudden-onsetparametersthanlargelanguagemodels(LLMs)likeevents,suchashurricanesandfloods.ModellingandunderstandingtheEarthSystemisextremelychallenging,astheEarth’sprocessesarebynaturehighlynon-linear,coupledandspanmultiplescalesintimeandspace.Today,rapidadvancesinMLhaveenabledscientiststomakerelativelygoodpredictionsofweatherandclimatewithhigh-resolutionsimulationsthatemulatephysicalprocesses.ThisisrevolutionizingthewayNumericalWeatherForecasting(NWP),alongwithclimatemodelling,willbedoneinthefuture,bringingtogethertraditional,physics-basedmodellingwithmorestatistically-basedapproachesintoadynamichybrid.Pierre-PhilippeMathieu,ImplementingManager,CivilSecurityfromSpaceProgramme,EuropeanSpaceAgencyINNOVATIONSPOTLIGHT:ResearchersassociatedwithM2Lines–anlibrary,thesemodelswereembeddedinsideinternationalcollaborativethatworkstoimproverealisticoceansimulationswhileonlynominallyclimateprojections–havedevelopedAImodelsincreasingtime-to-solution.HybridAIandthatcanreproduce(oremulate)theeffectsofequations-basedsimulations,suchasthese,turbulence,anoften-intractableproblemincanbeusedtoincreasetheaccuracyoflow-mathematicsandscience.UsingHewlettPackardresolutionmodels–theworkhorsesofclimateandEnterprise’s(HPE)open-sourceSmartSimweatherapplications.2.CreateAImodelsurrogatesforcomplexsynergistictoolsets–AI/ML-basedapproachesweathersimulationsenableuniquecapabilities.ThesemodelscandepictclimateconditionsthroughcomputervisionRe-frameclimatesystemsasimages:Anandneuralnetworks,enablinganewmodeofimportantadvanceinweatherandclimateprediction.Additionally,AI/MLsurrogatescantakemodellinghasbeentheintroductionofAI/ML-advantageofnewtypesofcomputingincludingbasedsurrogates,trainedontraditionalequation-graphicsprocessingunit(GPU)resources,whichbasedsimulations.Whilebothtypesofsystemsreducetime-to-solution.willcontinuetobeusedgoingforward–theyareInnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis17WithGPUs,someclimateproblemscanbeconstruedascomputervisionproblems–asanexample,aclimateimagethatcontainstemperature,pressureandwindspeedasthefundamentalpixelsoftheimage.ThenthetaskofpredictingaclimateeventsuchasElNinobecomeslikepredictingthenextframeinavideo.HimanshuGupta,ChiefExecutiveOfficer,ClimateAIEnablecustomizationandlocalizedinference:ittozeroinonspecificvariablesandgeospatialInmanyscenarios,climatemodelsareonlyusefulareas.AndrewShao,SeniorHigh-Performanceiftheyaretask-specific.Forexample,abusinessComputing(HPC)andAIResearchScientistatmaywanttoknowhowaspecificclimate-inducedHewlettPackardEnterprisessaid,“AImodelsrisk(e.g.amajorhurricane)mayimpacttheirtrainedonhigh-resolutionsimulationscanbeusedsupplychaininaspecificpartoftheworld.Oraaslocalizedsurrogatesforclimaticconditions.localgovernmentmayneedtounderstandhowInsteadofneedingasupercomputer,acustomizedrisingsealevelswillimpactaparticularpartoftheirMLmodelcouldbetrainedforyourownpurposes,coastlineoverthenext20years.Theimpactsofgeography,andflavourofclimaterisk.”Christerclimatechangecanbeidiosyncratic;torespondtoSolheimGundersen,NORAD,hasemphasizedthethis,modelsmustbeflexibleandcustomizable.benefitsoflocalizedinference,too:“AIcanmakeadvancedmodellingmoreaccessible.Youdon’tThelatestgenerationoffoundationclimatenecessarilyneedlocalizeddata.Ifyouhavethebasicmodels(i.e.large,globalmodels)areconducivedataarchitecture,AIcanperformaninference.Thistocustomizationandlocalizedinference.Machineallowsmodelstoscalemoreeasily,shortenstime-learning’spowersforpatternrecognitionenableto-marketandreducescostofinvestment.”INNOVATIONSPOTLIGHT:ManyoftheseAI-poweredcapabilitiesconvergetheplanet,itiscustomizableandallowsuserstoinwatsonx.ai,anewclimatefoundationmodelfocusonspecificregionsandhazardtypes.41ThisfromIBMandNASA.Themodelconsumesvastlevelofcustomizationisdeliveringpositiveresults.amountsofsatellitedata–muchofitfromNASA’sAccordingtoSolomonAssefa,Vice-PresidentHarmonizedLandsatSentinel-2–andwastrainedofIBMResearch,“Fromthismodel,youcanforover5,000GPUhoursonsupercomputers.Inpotentiallycreateflooddetectionmodelsthatareadditiontoprovidingaglobal,geospatialpictureof15%moreaccurate”.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis18AIforclimateriskanalyticsHowit’sinnovative:ThisreporthasshowntheAIpowersriskanalyticsbyintegratingcompany-powerofAItocustomizeweatherandclimateorcommunity-specificparametersintomodels.modelsaccordingtospecificparameters,likeMLalgorithmscanthenconstructriskportfoliosbyhazardtypeandregion.Yet,formanyusers–approximatingtheeventualityofdifferentclimatebusinessleadersinparticular–climateintelligencescenarios(e.g.willthehurricanemakelandfallcannotstopthere.Itisnotenoughtoforecastthatorstayoff-shore?).Thefinalstepofclimateriskahurricanemayoccurinoneweek;leadersneedanalyticsistoquantifypotentialdamagesandcoststoknowtheprobabilityofthishappening,whatacrossvariousscenarios.Thesecostsmaybecommunities,naturalsystemsandphysicalassetseconomic,socioeconomicornatural.AI-poweredareexposed,whethertheyareready,andwhatthetoolscanquantifytheimpacts,demonstratingtocostsmaybe.leadersthevitalimportanceofbuildingresilience.INNOVATIONSPOTLIGHT:markets.ChiefExecutiveOfficerHimanshuGuptasaid,“FoodandseedcompaniescandrawaCalifornia-basedcompanyClimateAIusescircleonamapofwheretheygetstrongyieldsAItohelpcompanies,assetmanagersandtoday.Thenweusealgorithmstodeterminewhatcommunitiespredictandmitigateclimateriskgrowingconditionshavecontributedtoyieldsontheirsupplychains,marketsandoperations.historically–andwherethoseconditionsmayRecently,ClimateAIworkedwithoneoftheexistgoingforward”.ClimateAI’scustomer,alargeworld’slargestagricultureassetmanagers.Theagrochemicalcompany,sawa5-10%increasecompanyusedAItoperformanassessmentinsalesrevenuebyadjustingtheirsalesstrategyoftheassetmanager’sagriculturalportfoliototothenewclimatevolatilityobservedintheirunderstandhowgrowingconditionswillchangedemandmarkets.inthecomingdecade.ClimateAIwasalsoabletoidentifyinvestmentopportunitiesandgrowth1.5AR/VRtovisualizeclimateimpactsWearingaHowitworks:AR/VRaretoolsthatprovideimmersiveHowit’sinnovative:AR/VRisbecomingakeyheadset,usersexperiencesofadigitalenvironment.AsGoogletooltonudgebehaviourchangerelatedtoclimatecanexperiencedescribes,thesetools“expandhowweexperienceaction.Forinstance,immersiveVRexperiencescanwhatitwouldbetheworldandaccessknowledge…[allowingyou]tosimulatetheimpactsofclimatechange.Wearingliketolivewithtakeininformationandcontentvisually,inthesameaheadset,userscanexperiencewhatitwouldbealteredweatherwayyoutakeintheworld.”42ARisoftendesignedtoliketolivewithalteredweatherpatterns,depletedpatterns,depletedsuperimposedigitalfeaturesonthephysicalworld,biodiversityandmore.Whileapplicationsofthesebiodiversitysuchasapplicationsthatapplyvisualfiltersontechnologiesremainnascent,thereispotentialforandmore.real-worldimages.VR,ontheotherhand,isoftensignificantimpactinthefuture.AR/VRcanturnthedesignedtofullyimmerseusersinadigitalworld,abstractintothevisceral.aidedbyhardwarelikeheadsetsandheadphones.43INNOVATIONSPOTLIGHT:TheWorldEconomicForumanditspartnerscontributingtosignificantsea-levelrise.AsGailrecentlyintroducedanew,immersiveexperienceWhitemanandhercolleagueshavewritten,“BycalledthePolarTippingPointsHub.Thehubnavigatingthisvirtualrealm(PolarTippingPointsuses3DsimulationsandVRexperiencestoshowHub),userscandelveintoenvironmentsoftenhowclimate-inducedtippingpointswillramifybeyondreachinthephysicalworld,gainingaacrosstheglobe.Forexample,articsummerprofoundunderstandingofthesignificantimpactsseaicecoulddisappearwithinthenextdecade,ofclimatetippingpoints”.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis191.6AdvancedcomputingtopowerintelligenceBOX2Cross-cutting:advancedcomputingand,onthefrontier,quantumcomputing,providemorepower,precisionandspeedtoManyapplicationsinthisreport–acrossthecomputingprocesses.adaptationcycle–relyonthepowerofadvancedcomputing.Cloud-basedsupercomputingCloud-basedsupercomputing:“Supercomputing”Recently,largeprovidersofcloud-basedservicesisageneraltermfortheworld’slargestandmosthavemadesupercomputingaccessibleatlowerpowerfulcomputers.Amongothercapabilities,cost.AndrewShao,SeniorHPCandAIResearchthesecomputersaredifferentiatedintheirabilitytoScientistatHewlettPackardEnterprise,said,rapidlyruntests(e.g.productprototyping),engineer“Cloudsupercomputingisonetoolthatisdrivingcomplexmodels(e.g.digitaltwins)andcombineAI/democratizationofweatherandclimatemodels…MLwithsimulationstomakepredictions.44Thesecateringtotherequirementsandrequestsofawidecomputershavehistoricallybeenavailableonlytovarietyofdownstreamstakeholders”.governments,universitiesandlargecorporations.INNOVATIONSPOTLIGHT:CrusoeisaColorado,US-basedcloudcomputingstranded-,wasted-andclean-energyresources,companythatfocusesondeliveringsustainablesuchasflarednaturalgasorstrandedrenewablecomputingsolutions,purpose-builtforAIandenergy.Repurposingthiswasteenergytopowerothercompute-intensiveworkloads.BydeliveringdatacentresenablesbothlowercostsandreducedsupercomputinginthecloudwithGPUsandhigh-environmentalimpact.Crusoe’sChiefExecutiveperformancenetworking,CrusoecancutcostsonOfficerandCo-Founder,ChaseLochmillersaid,specializedinfrastructureandincreaseaccessto“Richsourcesofcleanenergyarenotintheplacestheresourcesneededtofuelinnovation.Critically,weneedthem.Movingdataiseasierthanmovingtheyhavefocusedonthelargestoperatingexpenseenergy;AIrequiresalotofboth.Weleverageforsupercomputing:theenergyneededtopowerstrandedenergybyco-locatingourdatacentresit.Crusoeco-locatestheirdatacentresalongsidenearsourcesofenergyproduction”.Quantum-basedQuantumcomputing:Quantumcomputinguncertaintythatcanexistinclimatesystems),andsystemsholdharnessesthelawsofquantummechanics–thepotentialtodrivedowntheenergyconsumptionofvalueforclimatefundamentaltheorywhichdescribesphysicsatlargeAI/MLmodels.adaptation,duethesubatomiclevel–toredesignthecomputer.45totheirpowerThesemachinesaredivergentfromclassicalQuantumcomputingremainsnascent,withonlyforoptimizationcomputers(includingsupercomputers).Classicalthelargesttechnologycompanies,researchandlearning,computersworkinbinarycode(i.e.zeroorone).institutionsandwell-fundedstart-upsabletodealingwithQuantumcomputerscanprocessthefullrangeaffordthehardware.However,novelmodelsarestochasticity,andofvaluesbetweenzeroandonesimultaneouslyemergingtomakequantummoreaccessible.potentialtodrive(i.e.zeroandone).Accordingly,theycanperformCarlosKuchkovsky,ChiefExecutiveOfficerofdowntheenergymultiplecalculationsatonce,expandingtheQCentroid,whichoffersquantum-as-a-service,consumptionofcomputer’spower.Quantum-basedsystemsdescribeshowquantumcoulddriveforwardclimatelargeAI/MLmodels.holdvalueforclimateadaptation,duetotheirintelligence,“Quantumcomputingcouldbereallypowerforoptimizationandlearning(e.g.aidinggoodforclimatemodellingbecauseyoucanpredictinscientificdiscovery,suchasinthematerialnonlinearprocesseslikefluiddynamics–essentialsciencesforresilientbuildingmaterials),dealingtoweatherforecasting–whichisdifficultwithwithstochasticity(e.g.randomnessanddeepclassicalcomputers”.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis202BuildresilienceThesecondstageoftheadaptationcyclerequiresbuildingresilienceinthephysicalworld–incommunities,businessesandenvironments.FIGURE6Technologymapforstage2:buildresilience2BuildresilienceNote:Whereapplicationsemploymultipletechnologiesinagainstfutureimpactsconcert,groupingsareindexedtotheprimarytechnology.Gather,Resilienceprojectsusedatacollectedcompleteandandprocessedinstage1processdataStrengthenEarthobservationforearlywarningsystems(hazardmonitoring)planningande.g.satellite-enabled,near-real-time(NRT)monitoringtospotdecision-makinghurricanesbeforetheyhappenIoTforearlywarningsystems(dissemination)e.g.networkeddevices–phones,computers,televisions–thatpushoutemergencyalertsOptimizeAIforsupplychainoptimizationprocessese.g.climate-proofedsupplychainsthatdynamicallyre-adjustinrealtimesourcingwhendisruptionshitAIforresilientinfrastructuree.g.smartsewersystemsthatoptimizewaterﬂowsandpumpstationstoavertﬂoodingduringheavyrainfallPowerAIforresilientdesignatthemolecularleveldiscoverye.g.deeplearningtounlockadvancesfordesigningprocessesdrought-resistantcropsorresilientbuildingmaterialsCross-cuttingAdvancedcomputingtopowerintelligencee.g.quantumcomputingtoaccelerateAIdiscoveryprocessesInnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis21Epigraph…InthatEmpire,theArtofCartographyattainedsuchPerfectionthatthemapofasingleProvinceoccupiedtheentiretyofaCity,andthemapoftheEmpire,theentiretyofaProvince.Intime,thoseUnconscionableMapsnolongersatisfied,andtheCartographersGuildsstruckaMapoftheEmpirewhosesizewasthatoftheEmpire,andwhichcoincidedpointforpointwithit.ThefollowingGenerations,whowerenotsofondoftheStudyofCartographyastheirForebearshadbeen,sawthatthatvastMapwasUseless,andnotwithoutsomePitilessnesswasit,thattheydeliveredituptotheInclemenciesofSunandWinters.IntheDesertsoftheWest,stilltoday,thereareTatteredRuinsofthatMap,inhabitedbyAnimalsandBeggars;inalltheLandthereisnootherRelicoftheDisciplinesofGeography.Onexactitudeinscience,JorgeLuisBorges,CollectedFictions,translatedbyAndrewHurley.Themapisnottheterritory.WhilecomprehendingconferencesawtheadoptionoftheSharmEl-therisksofclimatechange–aidedbythemodernSheikhAdaptationAgenda,aglobalplantoattaincartographyofAI,Earthobservationandmore30climateadaptation-relatedoutcomesby2030.46–isanessentialfirststep,itisonlythat.LeadersTheAdaptationFundannounced$105millionmustusedigitalintelligenceasameanstobuildofnewpledges,andseveralcountries,suchasresilienceinthephysicalworld.ThisbeginswiththetheUK,US,EgyptandBangladesh,announceddevelopmentofadaptationandresilienceplans–additionalinvestmentsinadaptationinitiatives.47andculminateswiththeirimplementationinbusinessenvironments,communitiesandnaturalsettings.Ayearlater,COP28,whichtookplaceinDubaiinNovemberandDecember2023,sawmoreactivityThestateofpublicsectoradaptationplanningrelatedtoadaptation.Ahistoric“lossanddamage”andimplementationfundwasagreedonthefirstdayofthesummit,focusedondirectingfinanceflowstocountriesmostAdaptationplanningclimbedtothetopofthevulnerabletotheimpactsofclimatechange.BytheagendainNovember2022atCOP27.InadditionconclusionofCOP28,pledgestothefundtotalledtogloballeaders’pledgesandcommitments,theover$700million.48WhilethisrepresentsonlyaInnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis22Fewerthan500fractionofoveralladaptationfundingneeds(seeDespitethegrowinginterestinadaptation,citiesintheworldsection4.2)theagreementsignalstheinternationalbusinessesarestilllagging.Onlyoneinfivehavedevelopedcommunity’sgrowingrecognitionthatadaptationiscompanieshasaplantoadapttothephysicalclimateadaptationanintegralcomponentofclimateaction.risksofclimatechange,accordingtodataplans–andthosefromS&P’sGlobalCorporateSustainabilitythathaveoftenEvenso,adaptationstrategiesfacechallengesinAssessmentReport,whilethenumberoffailedtospecifygettingofftheground.Climatechangemaybeacompaniesimplementingtheseplansislikelystrategiestoglobalproblem,butadaptationisoftenperceivedasalower.Evenamongsectorsthatconsiderclimateimplementthem.localorregionalissue.Asaresult,someinternationalchangeamajorrisk,thereportfoundgapsactorsarereluctanttoinvest–inaglobaladaptationinphysicalriskandadaptationplanning.fund,forexample–iftheyexpectotherswillbetheprimarybeneficiariesofthoseoutlays.Additionally,Catalysingpublic-privateadaptationlow-resourcesettingshaveawiderangeofchallenges,withtechnologysuchasalackofdata,toolsandcapabilitiestodevelopandimplementadaptationstrategies.Whilepublic-privatepartnershipiscriticalthroughouttheadaptationcycle,itisofparticularDespitethesechallenges,recentyearshaveseenimportancetomattersofimplementation.Manyofprogressinthedevelopmentofnationaladaptationtheresilienceprojectsrequiredforadaptation(e.g.plans(NAPs),withfiveoutofsixpartiestotheUnitedbuildingsea-walls)entailsignificantoutlaysofcapital,NationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangelabourandpoliticalwill.Atthesametime,these(UNFCCC)havingsubmittedatleastoneNAPprojectshavesignificantbenefitsforpublicandinstrument,accordingtoUNEP’sAdaptationGapprivateactorsalike(e.g.sea-wallsthatprotectbothReport2023.However,lessprogresshasbeenmadeacoastalcommunityandafactory).Forexample,atlocallevelsofgovernment.AccordingtoCDP,inLagos,Nigeria,theBostonConsultingGroupfewerthan500citiesintheworldhavedeveloped(BCG)workedwiththelocalgovernmenttoshowclimateadaptationplans–andthosethathaveoftenthatimplementingarangeofresilienceprojects(anfailedtospecifystrategiestoimplementthem.investmentvaluedat$10billion)willhelpthecityavoid$30billioninlossanddamagesfromclimate-Thestateofprivatesectoradaptationplanninginducedimpacts.49Thesesavingswillbenefitbothandimplementationthecitygovernmentandprivatebusinesses.MomentumisbuildingintheprivatesectoraroundItisimperativetotakeadaptationplansofftheclimateadaptation.Severalgovernmentsareusingpageandintothephysicalworld;totakedataoutregulations,policiesandstandardstoaccelerateoftheworldofbits-and-bytesandintotheworldprivatesectoradaptation,whilecapitalmarketsandofatoms.So,justhowcangovernmentsandinvestorsarerewardingcompaniesthatimplementbusinesscometogethertobuildresilience–andthosestandards.whatistheroleoftechnology?InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis232.1Climate-resilientinfrastructureHowtobuildit–withtech:Whenextremecategory5hurricane,whichmadelandfallinFloridaweathereventshit,thestabilityofbasicin2017.Thehurricanecausedpoweroutagesandinfrastructure,suchaspowerutilities,isatrisk.Likesignificantflooding,causingmanysewagepumpothercountriesaroundtheworld,India’spowergridstationstomalfunction.Incertaincommunities,wasimpactedbyheatwavesin2022–resultingthisresultedinthousandsofgallonsofrawsewageinthecountry’sworstelectricityshortageinyears.spillingontothestreets.51Electricitysupplyfellshortofdemandby1.88billionunitsinApril2022,beforethesummerreallyToensureenergystability,publicandprivatebegan.Extremetemperaturesforcedwidespreadactorsneedtobuildresilient,smartgridsthatpowercuts,earlyclosuresoffactories,officesandcanwithstanddisruptionandoptimizesupplyschools,andputthehealthofworkersatrisk.50duringdemandsurges.Tomanageflooding,theyThecrisisdemonstratedthefragilelinkbetweenneedtoturnsewersystemsintointelligent,flood-weatherconditions,energysupplyandgridmanagementsystems.Thesesolutionsarebasedresilience.WatersystemsandutilitiesarevulnerableinAIandreal-timedataflows,enablingleaderstotoextremeevents,too.HurricaneIrmawasaoptimizeandmaintaincriticalinfrastructure.Combinedwithsensors,AIcanbeusedtopinpointwhereassetsarevulnerable–forexample,pinpointinginefficienciesinenergygrids–aswellasbeingusedtodynamicallyoptimizethesesystemstoenableobjectivessuchasrenewablesintegrationandreliability.Indeed,thisisoneareawhereAIisthemostcatalytic:inthesensethattheseactivities–real-timemaintenanceandoptimization–arehardtoenvisionbeingdonewithoutAI.PriyaDonti,Co-FounderandChair,ClimateChangeAI;AssistantProfessor,MassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyINNOVATIONSPOTLIGHT:IchiroYamanoi,SeniorResearcheratHitachi,andautomaticallycalculatesanappropriatehasworkedwithlocalgovernmentsinJapantooperationplanforfuturerainwaterpumpsbasedbuildsmartsewersystems.Governmentshaveontheresults.Thiscanpreventinternalflooding.startedusingAItoautomatedecisionsabouttheAsIchirodescribesit,“AIisveryeffectiveinoperationofpumpingstationsthatmoveflowingmanagingsocialinfrastructureintelligently.Forrainwaterthroughstormdrainsanddischargeitexample,AIcanbeusedinsystemstopredictintonearbyrivers.ResearchershavedevelopedAIflowstopumpingstations,whichplayakeytopredicttheamountofinflowbasedonrainfallroleinseweragesystemsduringperiodsofdistributiondataandrainwater-pipewaterlevels,intenserainfall.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis242.2Climate-resilientfoodsystemsSatelliteHowtobuildit–withtech:FoodsecurityisoneofRegardingwateruse,innovativetechnologiesareimagerycanhelpthemostsignificantriskslinkedtoclimatechange.playingaroleboth“intheground”and“intheair”.AsfarmersmeasureInmanypartsoftheworld–particularlytheGlobaltheWorldBankpointsout,wateraccountingsystemsevapotranspiration,South–climatechangeisdisruptingagriculturalcanemployin-groundsensorsthatmeasuresoilwhichinformstheproductiononmultiplefronts:reducedwatermoisture.Intheair,satelliteimagerycanhelpfarmersmanagementofsupplies,increasedfrequencyofextremeweathermeasureevapotranspiration(theprocesswherewaterwaterbalances.events,heatstressandincreasedprevalenceofistransferredfromlandtoatmosphere),whichinformspests,suchaslocustswarms.TheWorldBankhasthemanagementofwaterbalances.53Intermsofcropoutlinedthreekeystrategiesforbuildingresilientmixtureandsoilhealth,AIandIoTsensornetworksagriculturalsystems:52aremakinganimpact.GailWhitemanstates,“Thereiscurrentlyafocusontechnologyforresilient–Usewatermoreefficientlyandeffectively,agriculture,droughtresistanceinparticular.Forcombinedwithpoliciestomanagedemandexample,identifyinggrainssuchaspearlmillet,whichuselesswaterthanrice.Anotherexampleisusing–Switchtoless-thirstycropsdataandsensorstooptimizesoilmix”.Technologyisbringingnewintelligencetofoodsystems–and–Improvesoilhealth.presentsanopportunityforprivate-sectortechnologyproviderstocollaboratewithlocalgovernments.INNOVATIONSPOTLIGHT:Thestart-upVerticalFutureisusingtechnologytostudytheseconditionsinrealtime;thealgorithmspushtheboundariesofresilientandsustainableidentifypatterns,predictcropperformanceandagriculture.VerticalFutureuseshydroponicandofferdata-drivensuggestionsforimprovingcropaeroponicsystems–soillesscultivationmethodsmanagement.AIalsoaidsindecision-making,such–togrowcropsyear-round,independentofaswhentochangegrowingconditionsandnutrientweatherconditions.IoTtechnologiesareusedtodelivery.VerticalFuture’sapproachdemonstratescollectdataonenvironmentalconditions,planthowtechnologyisopeningapathforresilient,growthandresourceuse.VerticalFutureusesAItoindooragriculturalproduction.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis252.3ResilientglobalsupplychainsHowtobuildit–withtech:Thevulnerabilityofinducedhazards.ClimateAIisoneofagrowingglobaltradeflowstoextremeweathereventsisnumberoftechnologycompaniesthatuseAItosignificant.AccordingtoarecentstudybyOxford’sclimate-proofsupplychains.AccordingtoHimanshuEnvironmentalChangeInstitute,over$122billionofGupta,thispresentsanewparadigmforsupplyeconomicactivity–$81billionintradealone–isatchainresilience:“AIishelpingtoinnovateanewriskfromclimate-inducedimpacts.54strategyforsupplychainmanagement–goingfrom‘just-in-time’to‘just-in-case’supplychains,whichGovernmentsandbusinessescanminimizetheshieldsagainstclimaterisk”.Byidentifyingclimate-risksbyusingAItooptimizeshippingroutes.Whileinducedrisksandbuilding-inslack,companiesclimate-relatedoptimizationhasmainlyfocusedcannavigatedisruptionswithminimalimpactononemissionstodate,leaderscanusethesameoperations.Inthepublicsector,themacroeconomicapproachtooptimizetraderoutestoavoidclimate-benefitstogovernmentswillbesubstantial.INNOVATIONSPOTLIGHT:Anothertechnologycompanyattheinnovativeriskinsupplychains.ThetoolgoesbeyondbasicedgeofsupplychainresilienceisEverstreamforecastingtoprovideeventcontext,trendsandAnalytics.EverstreamprovidesanAI-poweredtoolactionableinsights.thatusesappliedmeteorologytomanageclimateRisingtemperaturesandprecipitationareenvironmentalandeconomicconcerns.Climatechangewillcontinuetoreshapeproductionanddistributionlandscapes.Companiesthatadoptadvancedweathermodellingandpredictiveanalyticstoanticipateandproactivelyaddressthesechallengeswilloutpacetheircompetitorswhilemakingmeaningfulprogressontheirenvironmental,socialandgovernance(ESG)commitments.JulieGerdeman,ChiefExecutiveOfficer,EverstreamAnalyticsInnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis262.4AdvancedearlywarningsystemsHowtobuildit–withtech:Multi-hazardearlyTheroleofadvancedtechnology–intheUN’swarningsystems(EWS)areamongthemostinitiativeandEWSbroadly–canbeagame-impactfultechnologiesforsavinglives(seeFigurechanger.AI,BigDataandcloudcomputingare3).EWShavebeencentredinrecentglobalpowerfultoolsthatenhancethepredictiveprecisionpartnershipsonadaptation.TheUN’s“EarlyofEWS.Additionally,IoTnetworksandAIcanWarningsforAll”seekstoensurethateveryoneonimprovehydro-meteorologicalservices,whileEarthisprotectedbyEWSby2027.Theeconomicsatellite-basedtechnologycanoptimizehowalertsargumentforEWSisstrong:investing$800millionarepushedtoat-riskindividuals.inEWSindevelopingcountriescanpreventlossesof$3-$16billionannually.55INNOVATIONSPOTLIGHT:onfloodforecasting.AntoniaGawel,DirectorofSustainabilityPartnershipsandEngagementSeveralbigtechnologycompaniesareworkingatGooglehassaid,“GoogleisworkingtobringwiththeWorldMeteorologicalOrganizationAI-poweredfloodforecastingtoeverycountry.(WMO)undertheauspicesof“EarlyWarningsOurglobalhydrologicalAImodelcombinedwithforAll”.Microsoftisworkingtoimproveinternetpublicly-availabledatacurrentlypredictsfloodsspeedsandensurethattimelyalertsfromupto7daysinadvancefor460millionpeoplenationalmeteorologicalandhydrologicalservicesinmorethan80countries”.Alibaba,foritspart,aredisseminated.MicrosoftisalsousingAIisusingAItoassistindisasterpreventionandandhigh-resolutionsatellitestomapat-riskreduction,withafocusonAsia.populationsandconductpost-disasterdamageassessments.GoogleisworkingwiththeWMOFIGURE7ThelifesavingimpactofearlywarningsystemsBangladeshhasonlytwo300coastalradars;nocomprehensivewarningsystem.Numberofdeaths(thousands)Over90%ofthe200vulnerablepopulationreceiveearlywarnings.Bangladeshcollectsmeteorologicaldataviaanetworkof50100weatherstations,balloonsandradars.019751980198519901995200020052010201520201970Majortropicalcyclone1Notes:Graphdepictspolynomialtrendline(R2=.81).1.Ascategorizedin“ClimatechangedrivendisasterrisksinBangladeshanditsjourneytowardsresilience”,JournaloftheBritishAcademy.Sources:“ClimatechangedrivendisasterrisksinBangladeshanditsjourneytowardsresilience”,JournaloftheBritishAcademy,vol.9,no.8,2021,pp.55-77;TheNewHumanitarian;USAID;BCGAnalysisInnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis273ResponddynamicallyInthewakeofclimateimpacts,leadersmustresponddynamicallytosavelives,businessesandnaturalassets.FIGURE8Technologymapforstage3:responddynamicallywhenimpactshit3ResponddynamicallyNote:Whereapplicationsemploymultipletechnologiesinwhenimpactshitconcert,groupingsareindexedtotheprimarytechnology.Gather,AIforhumanitariandatacollectioncompleteande.g.socialmediascrapingtoolsthatcandetectanprocessdatauptickinmessagesaboutanextremeweathereventEarthobservationforpost-crisismappinganddamageassessmentse.g.satelliteimagerytoidentifydamagedbuildingsStrengthenAIforsituationalawarenessinacrisisdecision-makinge.g.toolsthatpredicthowacrisiswillunfoldandmakerecommendationsonhowtodeployresourcesOptimizeprocessesDronesforoptimizingsearch-and-rescueinrealtimee.g.aerialimagerytoidentifyaffectedcommunitiesinhard-to-reachareasNudgeadaptiveAIforoptimizingmobilityduringevacuationsbehaviourse.g.predictivetoolsthatworkwithgeospatialdatatoidentifytrafﬁccongestionandrecommendre-routingCross-cuttingAIforpost-crisismentalhealthsupporte.g.accreditedchatbotsthatcanprovidebasicsupportwhenin-personsupportisnotaccessibleNascent,notdetailedinreportAdvancedcomputingtopowerintelligencee.g.cloud-basedsupercomputingtosupportAI/MLtoolsforsituationalawarenessInnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis28Climate-andweather-relateddisastershaveThesummerof2023witnessedmultipleextremesurgedoverthelast50years,peakingatafive-foldevents.WildfiresburnedLahaina,Hawaii,leavingincreaseinthefirstdecadeofthiscentury.56Inthatresidentswith“nowarningandnowayout”.57period,theyhavecausedover2milliondeathsDerna,inLibya,washitbytorrentialrainsthatledtoand$3.5trillionineconomiclosses(seeFigure4).devastatingfloods,costingthousandsoflives.58TheThesedamageshavedisproportionatelyimpactedEU’sCopernicusAtmosphereMonitoringServicegeographiesintheGlobalSouth,wherebothloggedrecord-highemissionsfromCanadianpre-existingresilienceandresourcesforrecoverywildfiresmoke.59arelimited.AccordingtoConstanzaGomezMont,FounderandPrincipalofC-Minds,“DisastersAdvancedtechnologiescanhelp.DuetoimprovedcomewithabigtollhereinLatinAmerica.Thereearlywarninganddisastermanagementsystems,aremanyvulnerablepopulations,particularlythenumberoffatalitiesduetoclimate-andthoseincoastalareas.Ontopofthat,mobilizationweather-relateddisastersfellalmostthreefoldintheofresourcesandrecoveryfromadisasterarelastfourdecades:fromover50,000inthe1970stosignificantchallenges”.under20,000inthe2010s.60FIGURE9Extremeeventsduringthecourseofthelast50yearsNumberoftotaleventsperdecade4,000+345%3,000Weather-,climate-andwater-relateddisastershaveincreasedsigniﬁcantlyoverthelast50years,resultinginmajoreconomiclosses2,0003,5631,0003,1657112,25001,4101990s2000-20092010-20191970s1980sEconomicloss$175billion$289billion$852billion$942billion$1,381billionSources:WMO,AtlasofMortalityandEconomicLossesfromWeather,ClimateandWaterExtremes(1970–2019),2021;BCGanalysis.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis293.1Thefirst72hoursAdvancedtechnologiescanbeleveragedduringDavidJensenstates,“Thereismuchthattechnologythefirst72hoursafteracrisis–acriticalwindowcandointhewakeofanextremeclimateevent.forsavinglivesandminimizingdamage.61ProvidingFrommappingofindividualsandcommunitiesmedicalcare,deliveringemergencyshelter,foodandimpactedtooptimizingtheallocationofhumanitarianwater,andconductingsearchandrescueoperationssupport(e.g.routingofemergencyvehicles)tocanreducetheadverseimpactsofanextremeevent.automatingdamageandneedsassessments”.Thetechnologiesthataretransformingcrisisresponse3.2AIforhumanitariandatacollectionHowitworks:Inthewakeofaclimate-orweather-bothstructuredandunstructured–tomaptherelateddisaster,itiscriticaltogatherandanalysetheevolutionofcrisesandforecasttheirconsequences.largevolumesofdatathatproliferateontheinternetAccordingtoPriyaDonti,“Analysisofsocialmediaandsocialmedia.Thisopensareal-timewindowoutputstopinpointexactlywherepeopleare(intheintohowthecrisisisunfolding.Forinstance,AIcanwakeofadisaster)andassessotheron-the-groundbeusedtosiftthroughdataonsocialmediaandconditionsisonepotentiallyimpactfulapplicationofdistilkeyinsights(e.g.identifyingwhereandhowAI”.AIcanalsobecombinedwithcomputervisionpeoplearebeingaffected).Equally,itcanbeusedtoprovideinnovativesupportduringprotractedforoutboundcommunications,enablingleaderstoevents.Forexample,theInternationalCommitteeofpushcriticalinformationtoaffectedcommunities.theRedCrosshasdevelopedadigitaltooltohelprefugeesandmigrantsfindmissingfamilymembers.Howit’sinnovative:ThelatestgenerationofAIItusesfacialrecognitiontechniquestoautomatethesystemscanbuildondifferentdatasources–search-and-matchprocess.INNOVATIONSPOTLIGHT:ArtificialIntelligenceforDisasterResponse(e.g.filteringbykeywordsandhashtagssuch(AIDR)istheAIcomponentoftheopen-sourceas“floods”and“#Libya”).AstheclassificationMicroMappers,ajointinitiativewiththeUNOfficeisrefined,AIappliesthisintelligencetoallthefortheCoordinationofHumanitarianAffairstweetsthatitcollectsinrealtime.Thetweetsare(OCHA).62Itssoftwareplatformautomaticallyautomaticallytaggedanddisplayed,poweringacollectsandclassifiestweetspostedduringcriseslivedashboardandcrisismap.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis303.3Earthobservationforpost-disasteranalyticsHowitworks:Duringcrises,decision-makersthisdegreeofresolution,itispossibletoperformshouldstudyasmuchoftheaffectedareasasdamageassessmentsofindividualbuildingsandpossible,withthehighestresolutionpossible.parcelsofland.AccordingtoVijayKarunmurthy,EarthobservationcanhelpthemunderstandtheFieldChiefTechnologyOfficeratScaleAI,incertainmagnitudeofimpacts–thebreadthofanareacases,“AIcanbeusedtoperformpost-disasterinundatedbyflooding,forexample–andviewareasdamageassessmentsandevenoptimizetheroutingthatmaynotbeaccessiblefromtheground.ofinsuranceclaimsinthewakeofanaturaldisaster”.Theseconsumer-scaleapplicationsarepairedHowit’sinnovative:Earthobservationtechnologieswithplanetary-scalecapabilities.Remote-sensingprovidenet-newperspectivesontheplanet.satellitescanproduceup-to-dateinformationonvastThemostadvancedtools–equippedwithhigh-locations,measuringenvironmentalchangeinNRT.64resolutioncameras–canmapsystemsatagranularThedatatheycapturegeneratecriticalinsightsforscale(downto50centimetresresolution63).Withdecision-makersinthewakeofacrisis.INNOVATIONSPOTLIGHT:PlanetLabsisatechnologycompanyandoneofPlanet’splatform,trainingittodetecthuman-theleadingdataprovidersforearthintelligence.madefeatures(e.g.buildingsandphysicalPlanet’splatformprocessesaglobalstreamofassets).TheneuralnetworkwasthentrainedtoEarthobservationdata,pullingfromover200detectex-postchangesinthephysicalandbuiltsatellites.65In2017,multipleextremeeventsenvironments(e.g.buildingsthathadlostpartsoccurredintheUnitedStates,includingHurricaneoftheirstructure).Theresultswerepowerful:theHarveyinTexasandtheSantaRosawildfiresinPlanet-NvidiatoolidentifieddamagedroadsafterCalifornia.Aftertheseevents,PlanetpartneredHurricaneHarveywithan89%accuracyrate.withNvidiatotestthepowerofEarthobservationInCalifornia,itdetectedbuildingsdamagedbyandAIforpost-disasterdamageassessments.wildfirewithan81%accuracyrate.66NvidiafedaneuralnetworkwithimagedatafromInnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis313.4AIforpost-crisisdecision-makingHowitworks:WithitspredictivepowersandAI-basedsystemscanrapidlyintegrateinformationabilitytodistilhugeamountsofdata,AIiskeytofromvarioussources–suchasground-leveldatasituationalawarenessafteraclimate-orweather-fromfirstrespondersandgeospatialdatafromrelateddisaster.AI-basedsystemscandrawsatellites–andanalysetheminrealtime.Certainonlargeamountsofdatatofindpatterns,drawAI-basedsystemscanevendeveloppredictionsinferencesandmakerecommendationsforaction.67abouthowthecrisiswillunfold–suchasdynamic,geospatialmapsoftheaffectedareas–tohelpHowit’sinnovative:AIcapabilitiesofferastep-leaderscutthroughthefogofuncertainty.changeoverlegacydecision-makingplatforms.INNOVATIONSPOTLIGHT:Whenextremeeventsoccur,firstrespondersoftenminimizesufferingandreducelong-termimpacts.lacktheinformationtomakecriticaldecisions.TheForexample,HOThasdevelopedanAI-assistedHumanitarianOpenStreetMapTeam(HOT)isamappingtoolthatusesaerialimagestodelineatenot-for-profitthatusesopen-sourcemappingandbuildingdamages.HOT’sopen-sourcetoolsaregeographicinformationsystems(GIS)technologytousedbypartnerssuchastheRedCross,Médecinsmeetthisneed.ThesetoolsenableleadersandfirstSansFrontières,UNagencies,governmentresponderstooptimizereliefeffortstosavelives,agencies,andlocalNGOsandcommunities.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis323.5Dronestooptimizesearch-and-rescueoperationsHowitworks:InadditiontoperformingarangeHowit’sinnovative:Dronescanbepre-emptivelyofobservationduties,dronescanbeusedforpositionedindisaster-proneregions,maynotsearch-and-rescueoperationsanddeliveringrequirerunwaysandcancircumventdamagedfirstaid,particularlyinhard-to-reachareas.infrastructure.Inadditiontotheirdata-gatheringOrchestratedinconcertwithAIandadvancedcapabilities,dronescandeliverrescueequipmentgeospatialmapping,dronescanpilottotargetandhumanitarianpackages68tolocationsthathavelocationsaccuratelyandreliably.beencut-offbyweatherevents.Moreover,theyarewell-suitedforsearch-and-rescueoperations,astheycancoverlargeareasinshortamountsoftime,providingvisualdatatorescuers.69INNOVATIONSPOTLIGHT:WhenCyclonesIdaiandKennethstruckandreliefagenciesneededtodecidewhereandMozambiquein2019,theWorldFoodProgrammehowtodeliveraid.Inthiscase,WFPalsousedAI(WFP)deployeddronesforthefirsttimeasparttoanalysethevisualdatacollected.WFP’sDigitalofitsemergencyresponse.ItcoordinatedtheseEngineforEmergencyPhoto-analysis(DEEP)effortswiththecountry’sNationalInstituteofreducedtheanalysistimefromweekstohours.DisasterManagement.ThousandsofdroneDEEPisbasedonopen-sourcesoftware,makingimageswerecollectedandstitchedintodata-richitssourcecodevisibletoprogrammerswhocanmaps,providingtheinformationthatgovernmentinspect,changeorenhanceit.703.6AItooptimizemobilityandevacuationsHowitworks:Afteracrisis,onecommoninaminimumamountoftime.Thesetoolsletusersimperativeistogetpeopletosaferground.AIcanqueryageospatialareaofinterest(theimpactzoneworkwithgeospatialdatatooptimizetheflowofawildfire,forexample)andseetheleveloftrafficofpeopleandtrafficduringevacuations.Theseinthatarea.Insomecases,thegeo-referencedAI-basedtoolscanalsopredicthowpeople’sdatacanbeoverlayedwithotherdatasets,suchmovementswillprogress,enablingleaderstoasstreet-leveldataofbuildings,toprovidearicherproactivelymanageevacuationroutes.viewofthesituation.AIcanalsotrackindividualpeople’smovements,whichcouldbecriticalduringHowit’sinnovative:AI-basedtoolscanoptimizeemergencies,butraisesimportantquestionsaboutroutestoevacuatethemaximumnumberofpeopledataprivacy(seeBox2).INNOVATIONSPOTLIGHT:TheWorldBankhasbuiltanagileplatformthatallowsuserstoqueryspecificareasandintegrateusesGoogleMapsdatatotracktrafficcongestionthatinformationwithotherspatially-referencedandmobility,providingapotentialtoolfordatasets.Forexample,combiningtrafficwithevacuationscenarios.WhileGoogleMapscanstreet-leveldatatoindicateoverallcongestiondisplaycongestionaccordingtooneoffourtrafficlevelsafteracrisis.Additionally,theplatformcanlevels,thedatacanbeinflexibleanddifficulttooperateatmicro-andmacro-scales,allowingworkwithduringacrisis.Tocontendwiththis,theuserstodepicttrafficcongestionforaspecificWorldBank’stool–theGoogleTrafficRpackage–neighbourhoodorentirecity.71InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis33BringingitalltogetherFIGURE10Technologymapforthecompleteadaptationcycle(stages1-3)Gather,1Comprehend2Build3RespondcompleteandrisksresiliencedynamicallyprocessdataDronesforaerialResilienceprojectsAIforhumanitariandatacollectionusedatacollecteddatacollectionandprocessedinIoTfordistributedstage1Earthobservationdatacollectionforpost-crisismappingandEarthobservationdamageforplanetaryassessmentsintelligenceAIforﬁllingdatagapsStrengthenAIforclimateEarthobservationAIforsituationaldecision-makingmodellingforearlywarningawarenessandcrisissystemsdecision-makingOptimizeAIforweather(monitoring)processesmodellinginrealtimeIoTforearlyAIforclimatewarningsystemsriskanalytics(dissemination)Stage1intelligenceAIforsupplyDronesforoptimizing-servesasinputtochainoptimizationsearch-and-rescueoptimizationtoolsinstages2and3AIforresilientAIforoptimizinginfrastructuremobilityduringevacuationsPowerAIdrivescontinuousAIforresilientdesignN/Adiscoveryimprovementofstep1processesintelligencetoolsatmolecularlevelNudgeAR/VRtovisualizeIoTtodirectpeopletoAIforpost-crisisadaptiveclimateimpactscoolbuildingsduringmentalhealthsupportbehavioursheatwavesCross-cuttingNascent,notdetailedinreportAdvancedcomputingtopowerintelligenceInnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis344MultistakeholdercollaborationandkeyenablersCollaborationonkeyenablers–open-sourcetechnology,financingandpolicy–willadvancetheroleoftechnologyinadaptation.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis35ScalabilityandTheglobalapproachtoclimateactionmusttransportreduceemissions(mitigation)whilereplicabilityacrossproceedattwolevels.Itmustfocusondevelopingcreatinganopportunitytodesignmoreresilientdifferentregionsandexecutingmitigationmeasures.Atthesamecities(adaptation).andcontextstime,anincreasingshareoftheglobalpopulation,willbeessentialeconomyandnaturalworldrequireadaptation.BothadaptationandmitigationarecomplextoaddresstheAntonioGuterres,SecretaryGeneraloftheUnitedchallengesthatrequireexpertiseandresourcesglobalnatureofNations,hassaid,“Adaptationandmitigationmustfromstakeholderssuchasgovernment,academia,climatechange.bepursuedwithequalforceandurgency”.72civilsocietyandbusiness.CollaborationamongthesegroupsleadstomoreeffectiveclimateAstheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateactionandfacilitatesresourcepooling,makingitChange(IPCC)demonstratedintheir2023easiertoinvestinclimatetechnologiesatscale.SynthesisReport(seeFigure5),adaptationandScalabilityandreplicabilityacrossdifferentregionsmitigationstrategiesareoftensynergistic.Forandcontextswillbeessentialtoaddresstheglobalinstance,expandingrenewableenergysourcesnatureofclimatechange.andimprovingtheirefficiency(mitigation)canreducevulnerabilitiestoenergy-relateddisruptionsAmultistakeholderapproachwillmostimpacttheduringextremeevents(adaptation).Sustainableexecutionofadaptationandmitigationstrategiesagriculturepracticessequestercarbon(mitigation)inthreeareas:technology,financingandpolicyandenhancesoilhealthandwaterretention,andregulation.73Theremainderofthissectionwillmakingcommunitiesmoreresilienttodroughtsexplorehowmultistakeholdercollaborationinthose(adaptation).Sustainableurbanplanningandareascanunlockthefullpowerofclimateaction.FIGURE11IPCCassessedthatmostadaptationoptionsaresynergisticwithmitigationClimateresponsesandadaptation,optionsSynergieswithmitigationEnergysupplyEnergyreliability(e.g.diversiﬁcation,access,stability)ResilientpowersystemsNotassessedLand,water,foodImprovewateruseefﬁciencyEfﬁcientlivestocksystemsSettlementsandImprovedcroplandmanagementinfrastructureWateruseefﬁciencyandwaterresourcemanagementBiodiversitymanagementandecosystemconnectivityAgro-forestrySustainableaquacultureandﬁsheriesForest-basedadaptationIntegratedcoastalzonemanagementCoastaldefenceandhardeningSustainableurbanwatermanagementSustainablelanduseandurbanplanningGreeninfrastructureandecosystemservicesLevelofsynergieswithmitigationConﬁdencelevelinsynergieswithmitigationHighMediumLowHighMediumLowNote:Limitedversionofgraphicpresented;completegraphicavailablein:IPCC,AR6SynthesisReport:ClimateChange2023,2023.Source:IPCC,ClimateChange2023,2023.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis364.1OpensourceistheunlockOpen-sourcedigitaltechnologiesforclimateTobeeffective,anopen-sourcemodelmustextendadaptationwillbecritical.Theywillensureaccess,acrossthetechnologypipeline,encompassingespeciallyintheGlobalSouth,tothedataanddata,analyticsandcomputingpower.Inthatsense,softwarethattechnology-ledadaptationrequiresclimatetechnologiescanemergeasadigitalpublicwhilefosteringecosystemsofinnovation.(Openutility,withtheopen-sourcemodelasitsbasis.74sourcereferstotechnologiesthatareavailableByapplyingopen-sourceprinciples,governmentsforfree,whosesourcecodecanbemodifiedandandbusinessescanstrengthencooperation,identifyredistributed,andaredevelopedinadecentralizeddifferentusers’needsandbuildtrust.wayandpeer-reviewed.)1.TheglobaldatacommonsThemostimportantpartoftheopen-sourceAccordingtotheIPCC,over3billionpeopleliveintechnologypipelineisthedatalayer.Thedataregionsthatarevulnerabletoclimatechange.Evenlayerisinclusiveofmodeloutputsthatderivefromso,mostdevelopmentofdata-driventechnologyupstreamsourcedata,providingtheactionabledoesnotinvolvepeoplelivingintheseregions.informationneededtomakedecisions(e.g.forAccordingtotheInternationalResearchCentrefinanceandinvestment,strategyandplanningandonArtificialIntelligence,over80%ofAIsolutionspolicy-making).Forclimateadaptation,inparticular,relatedtotheUNSustainableDevelopmentGoalstheglobaldatacommonsmustincludeaccessweredevelopedintheGlobalNorth.75AsPriyatohistoricaldatacontainedindatabases,dataDontihassaid,“ThewaytechnologieslikeAIexiststreamsofliveweatherconditionsandforward-todayispath-dependentonthefactthattheywerelookingdata.developedwithhugeamountsofdata,computeandcapital.Butthispathwasn’tinevitable–andTherehasbeenasignificantexpansionofclimate-it’snottheonlywaythatAIcanexist.”Thisissueisrelateddatainrecentyears.However,asDavidnotlimitedtoAItechnologiesalone.ChiefExecutiveGreenofNASApointsout,“JustbecausedataOfficerofOS-Climate,TrumanSemans,pointsout,existsdoesn’tmeanit’suseableorfindable.We“It’snotjustAItoolsthataredominatedbyOECDneedtobringinformationintoshareddatalakescountries.Deterministicandstochasticmodels,anddatacommons”.Makingdataavailableforwhichareimportantforadaptationandresilience,free–andensuringthatdataisactionableandareprimarilydevelopedintheNorth–thoughaccessible–iscritical.thesecanbemadeavailabletotheGlobalSouthInnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis37Climaterisksandlocalized”.Makingdatawidelyaccessibleisasustainingpartnershipsbetweenorganizationscutacrosssectorscriticalfirststeptobuildingsolutionsthatworkatwithdifferentexpertise.Thisisimportantforandgovernmentthelocallevel–whereverintheworldthatmaybe.climateactionsincetheanalysesneeded,suchdepartments,ascreatingvulnerabilityassessments,requireandsolutionsSo,whatistobegainedfromtheopen-sourcecomplextechniquesandspecializedknowledge.foronecanhaveapproach?RecentWorldResourcesInstitute(WRI)positiveornegativeandOpenDataCharterstudiesshowfourbenefits–Bettermonitoring.Opendataplaysaconsequencesthatcountriescanexpectfromopendatapolicies:76keyroleinmonitoringclimatepoliciesandforanother.programmes.Whendataandinformationare–Betterdecision-makingprocesses.Climatemadeaccessible,peoplecanundertakeformalriskscutacrosssectorsandgovernmentandinformalmonitoringinasystematic,data-departments,suchaswater,agriculturedrivenfashion.andenergy,andsolutionsforonecanhavepositiveornegativeconsequencesforanother.–Sophisticatedmodelling.ModellingunderliesIntegratingdataacrosssectorsbetterinformsmanyclimatechangeanalyses,fromestimatingdecisionsandensuresstrategicalignment.riskstomakingpredictions.Forthesemodelstogeneratereliableinsights,dataavailability–Greatercollaboration.Opendataandqualityarecritical.Ithelpsbuildcontext-reinforcescollaborativeactionbybuildinganspecificmodelsthatcanbeusedtransparentlyunderstandingofrisksandpriorities,aswellasinnationalandlocalplanning.2.Open-sourceanalyticaltoolsInadditiontoopen-sourcedata,open-sourcemaking.Moreover,toolsfordatainterpretation–foranalyticaltoolsarecrucialtotransformingupstreamexample,open-sourcedatavisualizationtools–canbedataintothederiveddatanecessaryfordecision-crucialtoturnanalysisoutputsintoactionableinsights.INNOVATIONSPOTLIGHT:OS-Climate(OS-C),aninitiativeoftheLinuxOS-Climate’sgoalistocreateacommunitythatFoundation,iscreatingaplatformandopen-willhelpboostglobalcapitalflowsintoclimatesourcetechnologiestofederateclimate-relatedadaptationandmitigation.Itisdevelopingdataanddevelopanalyticandvisualizationtools.scenario-basedpredictiveanalyticstools,whichAdditionally,OS-CworkswithpartnersandthethirdpartiescanfreelyusetodevelopinvestmentLinuxFoundationFINOSinitiativetostandardizeproductsthatmanageclimate-relatedriskanddatamodels.Itisapplyingthesamecommunity-financeclimatesolutions.OS-Climate’slong-termbasedgovernance,collaborationrules,licensinggoalistohelpaddressdataandanalysisgapsandstandards-settingprocessesthathaveacrosseverygeography,sectorandassetclass.revolutionizedinnovationinthelifesciencesanddigitalindustries,creatingsomeofthemostvaluableandimpactfulpublicgoodsinexistence.77InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis383.AccessiblecomputingresourcesForopen-sourcedataandanalyticaltoolstohaveAtthesametime,itisimportantforleaderstoanimpact,theyneedsupportfromlow-costandrecognizethatthesecapabilitiesmaycomewithaaccessiblecomputingresources.Fortunately,significantenergycost.78recenttechnologicaladvanceshavereducedthecostofcloud-basedsupercomputing(seeMakingcomputingresourcesaccessibletoinnovationspotlight,p.20).Givensufficientinternetdevelopingcountriesisacomplextaskthatwillconnectivity,thiseliminatestheneedforon-premiserequireinternationalcooperation,financialsupportorlocalsupercomputers,makingiteasierforandlong-termtechnicalassistance.Inadditiontolow-resourcesettingstoaccesshigh-performanceinternationalpartnershipsbetweendevelopedandcomputingresources.Thecloudismakingdevelopingcountries,establishingregionaldatacomputingmainstreamandunlockingnewwayscentreswithsharedsupercomputingcapabilitiesfororganizationstoanalyseclimate-relateddata.mayalsohelptacklethechallenge.BOX3Trustandtransparencylevel,theAIforthePlanetAlliance(AI4P)indicatesthat67%ofleaderslackconfidenceinAIdataManyleadersanddownstreamtechnologyusersanalysis.79Attheuserlevel,a2023studybylacktrustindata-driventechnologies–particularlythePewResearchCentershowsthat52%ofAI.Thislackoftrustspansseveraldimensions:peoplearemoreconcernedthanexcitedbyAI(atrustthatdatainputsarerepresentative,thatpercentagethathasincreasedbyapproximatelyalgorithmsaretraceableandfreeofbias,and,35%sincethedebutofgenerativeAI).80importantly,thatthosewhocontroltechnologywillnotabuseitscapabilities.AttheleadershipItisimperativeTrustinthedatalayerOnekeymeasuretomanagethisriskisensuringthatleadersthathumanactorsremaincentraltothedecision-prioritizeThequalityofdatainputsisessentialtoensuringmakingprocess(e.g.havingahumanverifytechnologythattheoutputsofatechnology(i.e.thederivedAI-derivedoutputsbeforetheyareusedforuseforclimateintelligence)areaccurateandequitable.Fordecision-making).82action–andexample,ifanMLsystemistrainedondatasetsdeploytechnologythatdonotincludeinformationfromaparticularTrustinresponsibleuseinamannerthatglobalregion,thatMLsystemmaybehaveasifrespectsindividualtheregiondoesnotexist.ThiscanhavesignificantAIandotheradvancedtechnologiesaretoolsprivacyanddignity.consequencesfortheutilityandlocalizationofAI-thatprovidecapabilities.Howexactlythesedriventools.capabilitiesareusedisuptoleaders.ItisimperativethatleadersprioritizetechnologyuseforclimateTrustinthealgorithmsaction–anddeploytechnologyinamannerthatrespectsindividualprivacyanddignity.WhenitItcanbedifficulttotraceanalgorithm’spathtoancomestoAI,leadersandtechnologypractitionersoutput(i.e.the“blackbox”problem).Thisisduetoshouldemploya“responsibleAI”approach.83themassiveamountsofdatathatAI/MLsystemsThisapproachincludesundergoingAIcomplianceconsumeandthecomplexsetofanalysestheyrun.audits,seekinginputfromdomainexperts,andIndeed,thesearecorecapabilitiesofAI/ML–butadheringtodesignpracticesthatmitigateriskstotheyalsoraisesignificantquestionsaboutbias.81humanprivacyandnegativesocietalimpact.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis39TheinvisiblebarrierstoopensourceGovernmentsandcompaniesmayquestiontheramificationsforclimateintelligence:“Thereisaneedvalueoftheopen-sourceapproach.Thisisoftenforseamlessmigrationacrosscomputingprovidersduetoalackofawarenessaboutthewaysin(cloudorotherwise).Customerswouldliketohavewhichopen-sourcecansupportcompetitivere-deployableinfrastructure.Flexibilityisneededtobusinessmodels.Inmanybusinessenvironments,provideburstmodellingcapabilityandoperationalcompaniesseektolockinusersandshielddataresponseinthefaceofadevelopingextremeevent”.andtoolcodefromcompetitors,includingthroughrestrictivelicensingterms.Whilecommonplace,Open-sourcetechnologiesareofnovalueunlessthesecompetitivedynamicsarenotalwayspeoplecancontributetoandusethem.Manynecessary.AccordingtoTrumanSemans,“Weneedorganizationslackopen-sourcereadiness:thetocollectivelyidentifythe‘pre-competitive’layerscapabilitiestoworkwithopentechnologystacks.oftechnologyanddatastacksforunderstandingReskillingandupskillingneedtobeaddressedclimateriskandopportunity–thedataandglobally,buttheresourcesareskewedinfavourofelementsofmodelsthatusersneedandaretheGlobalNorth.Forinstance,insufficientaccessinvestingefforttodevelopandmaintain,butwhichtoexpertiseisthelargestroadblocktousingAIarenottherefineddataandadvancedmodellingintheGlobalSouth,accordingtoTheAIfortheelementsthataredriversofcompetitiveadvantage”.PlanetAlliance.84PriyaDontihassaid,“Ahugepreconditionfortechnology-ledadaptationistheIntegratingopentechnologieswithexistingdemocratizationofcapacity.Weneedleadershipsystemscanbechallengingatatechnicallevel.tobeliterateaboutthesetechnologiesandenableFortoolstobeusedflexibly,thereneedstobeadiverseecosystemofsolutionsproviders,aswellmorestandardizationamongbigtechnologyasin-houseimplementationcapacitywithinpubliccompanieswhenitcomestoinfrastructuresectorentities.”Stakeholdersshouldinvestindesignandmetadata.AndrewShaoofHewletttrainingintechnology-baseddisciplines,mentorshipPackardEnterpriseunderscoresthisbarrieranditsandnetworksforbestpracticesharing.4.2RepositioningadaptationtoattractfinanceWhileadaptationfundinghasincreasedovertime,Bydemonstratingtheinnovationandgrowthinsufficientfinancingcontinuestoslowprogress.Asopportunitiesassociatedwithclimateadaptation,theUNshowsinitsAdaptationGapReport2023,85stakeholderscanbuildecosystemsthatwilladaptationfinanceflowstodevelopingcountriescreatethenextwaveofadaptivetechnologies.are10to18timesbelowestimatedneeds.TheBusinessleadersarestartingtotakenote.annualadaptationneedsofthesecountriesareAsHimanshuGupta,ChiefExecutiveOfficerestimatedatbetween$215billionto$387billionofClimateAI,said,“Climateadaptationistheayearuntil2030,andtheyareexpectedtorisebiggestgrowthopportunityforcompaniestoday.acrossfuturedecades.A2022studybyTheCompaniescanunlocknewbusinessmodels,RockefellerFoundationandBCGestimatesthatnewmarketsandnewpartnerships.Weareneedsmaybeevenlarger(seeFigure6).Data-seeingtheconversationstarttomovefromchiefdrivenanddigitaltechnologieshavebeenoneofsustainabilityofficerstochiefstrategyofficers”.thecasualtiesofthefinancinggap;intheleastAdditionally,bigtechnologycompanies,suchasdevelopedcountriesandsmallislanddevelopingGoogle,87IBM88andHPE,89havestartedfocusingstates,lessthan10%ofbasicweatherandoninnovationandclimateactiontorealizetheclimatesdataarewidelyavailable.86synergiesbetweenthem.In2022,Googlesetupa$30-millionclimatechallengefundtofinanceOnewayofincreasingfinancialflowsintoclimateprojectsacceleratingtechnologicaladvancesinadaptationistochangeitsframing–toemphasizeclimateaction.IBMrecentlypartneredwiththethelinkagesbetweenclimateadaptationandcityandstateofNewYork,whichisbuildinginnovation.Asthisreporthasshown,adaptationaninternationalcentrethatwillincubatenewandinnovationaretwinactivities.Tobuildadaptivetechnologiestocombattheclimatecrisis(theNewcapacity,leadersmustprocessnewdata,designYorkClimateExchange).InSeptember2023,HPEprocessesandsystemsinanagilemanner,andsetupthreeacceleratorstosupportpromisingresponddynamicallywhendisruptionsoccur.start-upsthatarefocusingondifferentaspectsofClimatechangeisanevolvingphenomenon,sotheclimatetechnologyecosystem.organizationsmustcontinuouslyinnovateanddevelopnoveltechnologiestokeeppace.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis40FIGURE12Annualclimatefinancingin2020($,billions)4,500~3,800Othercategoriesofﬁnancing3,000thatdonotmeetindicatorsfor710climateﬁnance,buthave410-560mitigation/adaptationimpacts15905~2,500-3,20046360-5103,3501,5002,050-2,7600AnnualadaptationTotalannualclimateAnnualmitigationAnnualadaptionAnnualﬁnancingﬁnanceneedﬁnanceneedﬂowsﬂowsgapAnnualmitigationﬁnanceneedMitigationAdaptationNote:1.Financingflowstocompaniesandinvestmentvehiclesthatwillhaveclimateimpact,butarenotdirectlyfocusedondecarbonizationand/orprotectinghumanandecologicalsystemsfromtheadverseimpactsofclimatechangeSource:“WhatGetsMeasuredGetsFinanced:ClimateFinanceFundingFlowsandOpportunities”,RockefellerFoundationandBostonConsultingGroup,November20224.3PolicyandregulationasacatalystClimateadaptationtechnologiesaremostlikelyAnysectorthatreliesonglobalsupplychainstoachievescaleifpolicyandregulationplayacouldbeaffectedbypoliciesandregulationscentralrole.AsConstanzaGomezMont,Founderaroundclimateandenvironmentalrisk,duetotheirandPrincipalofCMinds,hassaid,“Technologyisglobalexposure.Themostcomprehensivewillbeimportant.ButthenthereisthelargerquestionoftheEU’sCorporateSustainabilityDueDiligencehowyouprepareentirecommunitiesfortheimpactsDirective(CSDDD),proposedbytheEuropeanofclimatechange.AndthatiswheretheroleofCommissioninFebruary2022.TheEUisbuildingpolicyiskey”.onotherrecentlypassedlaws,suchasGermany’sSupplyChainDueDiligenceAct,whichcameintoInrecentyears,newregulations,policiesandeffectinJanuary2023.Alongsidethepoliciesandnon-bindingstandardsfocusedonclimateriskregulations,governmentsandNGOsaredevelopingandadaptationhavebeenenactedinseveraltaxonomiestosupportpublic-andprivate-sectorcountriesaroundtheworld.Manyfocusontheactorsinadvancingclimateadaptationobjectives.financialsectorandaimtocompelmarketstopriceinclimaterisk.Astheyexpand,theseSoundregulationandpolicymaypavethewaypoliciesandregulationswillalsohaverippleforcollaborationbetweenstakeholderstoshapeeffectsonothersectors.Theywillparticularlyclimatesolutionsthataretechnology-led,equitableaffectsectorsandbusinessmodelswithhighandeffective.AsPierreGentineofLEAP,Columbiavulnerabilitytoclimateimpacts,suchasinsuranceUniversity,hassaid,“Theseareexcitingtimes.andre-insurance,agriculture,electricalutilitiesTechnologicaldevelopmentshavebeendramatic.andrealestate.Specificallyforadaptation.Nowthequestionis:willthatinformationbeused?Regulationneedstomovefrombeingabottlenecktobeinganenabler.”InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis41ConclusionThemosteffectiveclimateadaptationstrategiestodealingwiththecomplexityandurgencythatmakeorganizationsandcommunitiesmoreagile,characterizeextremeeventsandtheiraftermath.innovativeandsustainable:theybuild“adaptiveEarthobservationtechnologiescanremotelycollectcapacity”.Data-drivenanddigitaltechnologiesinformationonimpactzones,andAIanddronesarepivotalinformingandimplementingthesecanbeused,individuallyorinconcert,toimprovestrategies.Atthetechnicallevel,thesetoolssituationalawarenessandoptimizesearch-and-canusevastamountsofinformationtooptimizerescueefforts.actionsinthepresentandmakepredictionsaboutthefuture.Attheoperationallevel,theycanMultistakeholdercollaborationisessentialforenhanceintelligenceaboutclimate-relatedriskandtechnology-ledadaptationtotakeholdintheopportunity,decreasevulnerabilitytoimpactsandpublicandprivatesectors.Asclimateimpactsfacilitateresponseswhentheyhit.increase,leaderswillfocusonmainstreamingopen-sourcetechnology,aligningclimateadaptationThemosteffectiveclimateadaptationstrategiesweaveandtechnologicalinnovationtoattractadditionaltogetherthetechnicalandoperational,poweringfinancing,anddesigningapolicyandregulatoryactionacrossthethree-partadaptationcycle:environmentthatsupportsadaptation.Leadershipfromawiderangeofsectorsandspheres–largeComprehendingrisks–and,insomecases,technologycompanies,start-ups,public-sectorandopportunities–associatedwiththeimpactsofmultilateralagencies,academia,civilsocietyandclimatechange.ComprehensionispoweredbyaNGOs–willbeessentialtothisprogress.rangeofadvancedtechnologiesfordatacollectionandprocessing(e.g.Earthobservation,drones,IoT)Astheworld’seconomiestransitiontowardsaandAIforturningdataintoinsight.sustainablefuture,leadersthatembraceclimateadaptationwillfindthemselvesatastrategicBuildingresilienceagainsttheimpactsofclimateadvantage.Inthistransition,businessescanchange.Leadersmusttakeclimateintelligenceharnessdata-drivenanddigitaltechnologiestooutoftheworldofbytes–andoffthepageofnotonlymitigateemissionsbutalsotoenhanceadaptationplans–andimplementresilienceintheclimateintelligence,formnovelpartnershipsandphysicalworld.Advancedtechnologiescanplayatapintonewmarketsforclimate-resilientproductsmajorroleintheseimplementationprojects:Earthandservices.ThefusionofthesetwoclimateobservationandIoTcanimproveearly-warningimperatives–mitigationandadaptation–presentssystems,andAIcanembedresilienceinanarrayofacompellingpathforward.Indeed,technologyandcriticalsystems,fromsupplychainstoinfrastructure.theclimatewillremaincorestrategicconsiderationswellintothefuture.ThefutureofleadershipbelongsRespondwhenclimate-inducedimpactshit.tothosewhoseeclimateadaptationnotasmerelyData-drivenanddigitaltechnologiesarewell-suitedanobligation,butasacatalystfortransformation.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis42ContributorsLeadauthorWorldEconomicForumJosephWegenerHelenBurdettFellow,WorldEconomicForum;Consultant,Head,TechnologyforEarthBostonConsultingGroupTimvandenBerghBostonConsultingGroupLead,PartnerandBusinessEngagementEnxhiDautiValentinGolovtchenkoConsultantLead,ClimateTechnologyHamidMaherManagingDirectorandPartnerAcknowledgementsTechforClimateAdaptationHimanshuGuptaWorkingGroup,WorldCo-FounderandChiefExecutiveOfficer,ClimateAIEconomicForumKarinHollandEdwardAndersonEnvironmentalSustainabilityLeader,AmgenSeniorDisasterRiskManagementSpecialist,DigitalEarthPartnership,WorldBankNaokoIshiiDirector,CenterforGlobalCommons,UniversitySolomonAssefaofTokyoVice-President,IBMResearchDavidJensenPriyaDontiCoordinator,DigitalTransformationProgramme,Co-FounderandChair,ClimateChangeAIUNEnvironmentProgrammeAntoniaGawelVijayKarunmurthyDirector,SustainabilityPartnershipsandFieldChiefTechnologyOfficer,ScaleAIEngagement,GoogleSoniaKastnerPierreGentineChiefExecutiveOfficer,PanoAIDirector,LearningtheEarthwithArtificialIntelligenceandPhysics(LEAP),ColumbiaUniversityCarlosKuchkovskyCo-FounderandChiefExecutiveOfficer,QcentroidJulieGerdemanThomasLingardChiefExecutiveOfficer,EverstreamAnalyticsGlobalHead,Sustainability(Environment),UnileverMehdiGhissassiChaseLochmillerDirectorandHeadofProduct,GoogleDeepMindCo-FounderandChiefExecutiveOfficer,CrusoeDavidGreenPierre-PhilippeMathieuProgrammeManager,NASAImplementingManager,CivilSecurityfromSpaceProgramme,EuropeanSpaceAgency(ESA)ChristerSolheimGundersenSeniorAdviserInnovation,NorwegianAgencyforConstanzaGomezMontDevelopmentCooperation(NORAD)FounderandPrincipal,CMindsInnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis43TrumanSemansBostonConsultingGroupFounderandChiefExecutiveOfficer,OS-ClimateDaveSivaprasadAndrewShaoManagingDirectorandPartnerSeniorHPCandAIResearchScientist,HewlettPackardEnterprisesAmaneDannouniManagingDirectorandPartnerMichaelSprangerChiefOperatingOfficer,SonyAILorenzoFantiniManagingDirectorandPartnerGailWhitemanProfessorofSustainability,UniversityofExeterGiovanniCovazziBusinessSchoolPartnerIchiroYamanoiAliZiatSeniorResearcher,HitachiPrincipalHaticeYildirimHamzaTberDigitalTransformationProgrammeManager,AssociateDirectorKoçHoldingWorldEconomicForumProductionInjyElhabroukLaurenceDenmarkSpecialist,InternationalTradeandInvestmentCreativeDirector,StudioMikoChitreshSaraswatXanderHarperHoffmannFellow,InnovationinClimateAdaptationDesigner,StudioMikoEricWhiteMarthaHowlettHead,ClimateAdaptationEditor,StudioMikoInnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis44Endnotes1.WorldMeteorologicalOrganization,2023shattersclimaterecords,withmajorimpacts[Pressrelease],30November2023,https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/2023-shatters-climate-records-major-impacts.2.“Septembersmashesmonthlytemperaturerecordbyrecordmargin”,WorldMeteorologicalOrganization,17October2023,https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/september-smashes-monthly-temperature-record-record-margin#:~:text=September%202023%20was%20warmer%20than,their%20warmest%20September%20on%20record;“WorldhadwarmestOctoberonrecord”,WorldMeteorologicalOrganization,8November2023,https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/world-had-warmest-october-record.3.McGrath,Matt,MarkPoynting,BeckyDaleandJanaTauschinski,“Worldbreacheskey1.5Cwarmingmarkforrecordnumberofdays”,BBC,7October2023,https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66857354.4.Seneviratne,S.I.,X.Zhang,M.Adnan,W.Badietal.,“Chapter11:WeatherandClimateExtremeEventsinaChangingClimate”inClimateChange2021:ThePhysicalScienceBasis.ContributionofWorkingGroupItotheSixthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,eds.JohnnyChan,AsgeirSortebergandCarolinaVera,IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),2021,pp.1,513-1,766,https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/.5.“Climatechangeandextremeweather”,WorldMeteorologicalOrganization,n.d.,https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/world-meteorological-day/world-meteorological-day-2022-early-warning-early-action/climate-change-and-extreme-weather.6.Estimatethatspansmultiplehazardtypes,includingfloods,cyclonesandwildfires:“UNDRR’sCalltoActionatCOP27”,UnitedNationsOfficeforDisasterRiskReduction(UNDRR),n.d.,https://www.undrr.org/undrr-cop27.7.UNDRR,OurWorldatRisk:TransformingGovernanceforaResilientFuture,2022,https://www.undrr.org/gar/gar2022-our-world-risk-gar.8.CentreforResearchontheEpidemiologyofDisasters(CRED),EmergencyEventsDatabase(EM-DAT)andtheUniversiteCatholiquedeLouvain,2022Disastersinnumbers,2023,https://www.un-spider.org/news-and-events/news/cred-publication-2022-disasters-numbers#:~:text=The%20%222022%20Disasters%20in%20Numbers,losses%20amounting%20to%20%24223.8%20billion.9.“Slowonsetevents”,UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC),n.d.,https://unfccc.int/wim-excom/areas-of-work/slow-onset-events#:~:text=Slow%20onset%20events%2C%20as%20initially,sea%20level%20rise%3B%20and%20salinization.10.UNFCCC,SummaryreportontheSBSTA–IPCCspecialevent:UnpackingthenewscientificknowledgeandkeyfindingsintheWorkingGroupIIcontributiontotheSixthAssessmentreport:Impacts,AdaptationandVulnerability,2022,https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Final_Summary%20Report_IPCC%20WG2_06.10.2022.pdf.11.Zawadzki,Annika,LorenzoFantiniandGiovanniCovazzi,NavigatingClimateRiskswithAdaptation&Resiliencestrategie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igence/responsible-ai84.AIforthePlanetAlliance,HowAICanBeaPowerfulToolintheFightAgainstClimateChange,2022.85.UNEP,AdaptationGapReport2023,2023,https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/43865/AGR23_ESEN.pdf?sequence=8.86.Ibid.87.“Google.orgImpactChallengeonClimateInnovation”,Google,n.d.,https://impactchallenge.withgoogle.com/climate2022/.88.Nixon-Saintil,Justina,“IBMtohelpbuildnewclimateactioncenterinNewYorkCity”,IBM,24April2023,https://newsroom.ibm.com/IBM-to-help-build-new-climate-action-center-in-New-York-City.89.Tan,Fred,“HPElaunchesthreeclimatetechimpactaccelerators”,HewlettPackardEnterprise,18September2023,https://www.hpe.com/us/en/newsroom/blog-post/2023/09/hpe-launches-three-climate-tech-impact-accelerators.html.InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis48TheWorldEconomicForum,committedtoimprovingthestateoftheworld,istheInternationalOrganizationforPublic-PrivateCooperation.TheForumengagestheforemostpolitical,businessandotherleadersofsocietytoshapeglobal,regionalandindustryagendas.WorldEconomicForum91–93routedelaCapiteCH-1223Cologny/GenevaSwitzerlandTel.:+41(0)228691212Fax:+41(0)227862744contact@weforum.orgwww.weforum.org

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