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ADB BRIEFS

NO. 286

JANUARY

2024

ISBN 978-92-9270-587-9 (print)

ISBN 978-92-9270-588-6 (electronic)

ISSN 2071-7202 (print)

ISSN 2218-2675 (electronic)

Publication Stock No. BRF240005-2

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/BRF240005-2

Measuring the Economic Impacts

of a Wind Power Project in VietNam

Nguyen Anh Tuan

Independent Economic Consultant

Viet Nam

Manfred Kiefer

Principal Economist

Private Sector Transaction

Support Division

Private Sector Operations Department

Asian Development Bank

Christian Abeleda

Associate Economics Officer

Private Sector Transaction

Support Division

Private Sector Operations Department

Asian Development Bank

KEY POINTS

• The findings of this study

underscore the economic

value addition of the

Lotus Wind Power Project

in VietNam. During

its construction phase,

theproject created a total

of 1,574 employments

(measured as full-time

equivalents or FTEs) and

infused local economies with

job earnings amounting to

$29.13 million. Moreover,

itcontributed $89.6 million

to the country’s gross

domesticproduct.

• In its operational and

maintenance phase, the

positive economic impacts

of the project are estimated

as 227 FTE permanent jobs,

$4.4 million in earnings

per year, and $9.5 million

of annual economic value

addition over the next

20 years. More than just

statistical numbers, these

benefits resonate with the

communities affected,

offering the promise of

enhanced livelihoods and

economic prosperity.

• Similar investments in the

sector may be considered

in the future. A conducive

investment environment

must be created, and

communities need to be able

to benefit from investments

and have a voice in the

decision-making process.

INTRODUCTION

The Lotus Wind Power Project is the first financing of the Asian Development Bank

(ADB) for a wind power initiative in Viet Nam. In 2021, ADB arranged and syndicated

a $173 million financing package for the project, which has a total capacity of

144megawatts (MW). The project includes three wind power farm projects—Lien

Lap, Phong Huy, and Phong Nguyen (with 48 MW each)—constructed and operated

by the PC1 Group Joint Stock Company (PC1 Group) and RENOVA Global Business

Development Company.

The Lotus project marks a significant advancement for the quickly developing wind

power industry in Viet Nam and was the first wind power project that not only ADB but

all the other participating lenders have financed in the country. The financing is certified

as a Green Loan by the Climate Bonds Initiative. Construction took 18 months from

May 2019 to October 2021. The wind farms were connected in September 2021 and

started operating and delivering power to the national grid in October 2021.

The authors extend their gratitude to the following offices and individuals for their valuable

inputs and unwavering support: ADB Economic Research and Development Impact Department;

Shantanu Chakraborty, Maria Patgeuana, and Nguyen Ba Hung of the ADB Viet Nam Resident

Mission; Lien Nguyen, Michael Gabish, and Ninh Le Do of the ADB Private Sector Operations

Department; and the PC1 Group Joint Stock Company. Special thanks are also extended to

ArvinYana, communications consultant, for research assistance and coordination of publication,

and the ADB Department of Communications and Knowledge and Management for ensuring the

overall quality of this knowledge product.

In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars.

ADB recognizes “Vietnam” as Viet Nam, and “Hanoi” as Ha Noi.

ADB BRIEFS NO. 286

In 2023, after almost 2 years of operation, the Private Sector

Operations Department of ADB implemented an economic

assessment of the direct, indirect, and induced impacts arising from

the construction and operation of the project, mainly in terms of

job creation and economic value addition, using a tool based on an

input–output (I-O) model. Research on socioeconomic impacts

of renewable energy projects, especially on job creation, remains

sparse but is important (COBENEFITS 2019). Assessing the

impacts of renewable energy projects has gained momentum, given

the increasing role renewable energy has to play in the transition

to zero emission. Sound information on expected outcomes, such

as employment and income generation at both national and local

levels, is essential for informed policy decisions and planning.

The study aimed to measure the impacts of this wind power

project. This brief summarizes and communicates the study

findings, particularly the benefits of the investment, to policy

makers and the wider public.

DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT

Renewable energy development in Viet Nam has gained significant

momentum in recent years. The country, which was traditionally

dependent on fossil fuels to meet energy needs, has been actively

transitioning toward cleaner and more sustainable sources

of power. Based on 2022 data (Viet Nam Electricity 2022),

renewable sources accounted for 48% of total power generation

(130,000 gigawatt-hour [GWh]) in Viet Nam, comprising mostly

hydropower plants (35%) while wind, solar, and biomass accounted

for 13%.

Viet Nam, particularly the northern region, traditionally boasts

of a geography ideally suited for the development of hydropower

plants. With its rugged terrain and numerous rivers, the region

holds substantial hydropower potential that has been used from

the early days of Viet Nam’s industrialization. However, as the

suitable locations for large hydropower projects have all been used,

the dynamic growth of hydropower in the north has slowed. In a

bid to meet the surging demand for electricity, the country initially

turned to more accessible and cost-effective sources, including the

establishment of several coal power plants in the northern region,

and combined-cycle gas turbines in the southernregion.

As the nation’s energy landscape evolves and climate consideration

gains importance, there is a notable shift toward cleaner and more

sustainable options, leading to the significant development of solar

and wind energy projects in the center and southern regions.

Solar and wind energy have slowly become the driving forces

behind the further increase of the share of renewable energy.

During the 2010–2022 period, the share of renewable energy

increased from 27% to 48% (Figure 1).

1 See Decision No. 39/2018/QD-TTg, 10 September 2018, amending several articles of Decision No. 37/2011/QD-TTg of the Prime Minister dated 29 June

2011 on provision of assistance in development of wind power projects in Viet Nam in NHQuang & Associates. 2023. Policy Brief for Preparation of Just Energy

Transition Partnership Implementation in Viet Nam: Legal Aspects.

Wind power development has been instrumental in Viet Nam’s

efforts to diversify its energy mix, reduce greenhouse gas (GHG)

emissions, and improve energy security. The growth in the

sector is supported by the government’s strong support and

implementation of generous feed-in-tariff (FIT). The introduction

of a FIT of $0.085 per kilowatt-hour for onshore wind projects

in 2018 encouraged the development of wind power project in

the country.1 This led to an increase in investments and added

capacity. However, due to the expiration of the FIT in 2021 and

the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, installation of

new wind power has slowed down. Currently, the Government of

VietNam is considering various alternative support options for

wind development including auctioning and special arrangements

for offshore wind, amongothers.

THE LOTUS WIND POWER PROJECT

The project is in Huong Hoa District, Quang Tri Province,

VietNam (see Map). Huong Hoa is a mountainous rural district

in the west of Quang Tri Province with a population of ethnic

Vietnamese as well as Bru people and Ta Oi people. Due to its

elevation; strong wind resources; and its unique geography of

steep slopes, sharp crests, and narrow valleys covered by dense

broadleaf evergreen forests, the area is conducive to wind farms.

Quang Tri is home to many wind farms in the region, totaling

17 as of 2021. Huong Hoa District has potential for agricultural

production and tourism aswell.

Figure 1: Viet Nam—Power Generation Structure

and Growth Rate, 2010–2022

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Growth (%)

Electricity generation (GWh)

Import Fossil Fuels Renewable Energy

Growth Rate Renewable Energy Share

GWh = gigawatt-hour.

Source: Viet Nam Electricity. 2022. Annual Report. Hanoi.

Measuring the Economic Impacts of a Wind Power Project in VietNam

Map: Lotus Wind Project—Location of the Wind Farms

Source: Asian Development Bank.

The three 144-MW wind parks required a total investment of

$254.2 million, with 60% of the construction material and labor

being locally sourced. The turbines and major equipment were

mostly imported, but still 15% locally sourced (Table 1). Local labor

accounted for 77% of the total labor costs. The project started

delivering power to the national grid in October 2021. In 2022,

theproject delivered a total of 417.54 GWh of electricity all over

the country.

The project enjoyed certain privileges for generating energy from

renewable sources (LNT & Partners 2023). Under its 20-year

power purchase agreement with Viet Nam Electricity, the project

received a guaranteed FIT of $0.085 or 1,928 Vietnamese dong

(VND) per kilowatt-hour, excluding value-added tax (VAT).

Theimports of raw materials, supplies, and components that

cannot be domestically manufactured were eligible for import

duty exemption (equipment is normally subject to 5% import

tax and 10% VAT). However, certain renewable equipment such

as wind tower and turbines were exempted from import duties.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, which coincided with the project

construction phase, a reduced VAT of 8% was applied to all

Table 1: Lotus Wind Project—Actual Construction Costs

Construction Items

Cost

($ million)

Domestic

(%)

1. Main Equipment Costs (Turbine) 118.4

Turbines and equipment 109.6 15

Transportation 8.8 100

2. Balance of Plant 112.7

Materials 56.1 99

Labor 19.7 77

Development and other costs 37.0 90

3. Import Tax (Material and

Equipment Purchases)

23.1 100

Total Project Cost 254.2 60

Source: Data from PC1 Group Joint Stock Company.

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NO.286ADBBRIEFSJANUARY2024KEYPOINTSMeasuringtheEconomicImpactsofaWindPowerProjectinVietNam•ThefindingsofthisstudyunderscoretheeconomicNguyenAnhTuanChristianAbeledavalueadditionoftheIndependentEconomicConsultantAssociateEconomicsOfficerLotusWindPowerProjectVietNamPrivateSectorTransactioninVietNam.Duringitsconstructionphase,ManfredKieferSupportDivisiontheprojectcreatedatotalPrincipalEconomistPrivateSectorOperationsDepartmentof1,574employmentsPrivateSectorTransactionAsianDevelopmentBank(measuredasfull-timeequivalentsorFTEs)andSupportDivisioninfusedlocaleconomieswithPrivateSectorOperationsDepartmentjobearningsamountingtoAsianDevelopmentBank$29.13million.Moreover,itcontributed$89.6millionINTRODUCTIONtothecountry’sgrossdomesticproduct.TheLotusWindPowerProjectisthefirstfinancingoftheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)forawindpowerinitiativeinVietNam.In2021,ADBarrangedandsyndicated•Initsoperationalanda$173millionfinancingpackagefortheproject,whichhasatotalcapacityofmaintenancephase,the144megawatts(MW).Theprojectincludesthreewindpowerfarmprojects—LienpositiveeconomicimpactsLap,PhongHuy,andPhongNguyen(with48MWeach)—constructedandoperatedoftheprojectareestimatedbythePC1GroupJointStockCompany(PC1Group)andRENOVAGlobalBusinessas227FTEpermanentjobs,DevelopmentCompany.$4.4millioninearningsperyear,and$9.5millionTheLotusprojectmarksasignificantadvancementforthequicklydevelopingwindofannualeconomicvaluepowerindustryinVietNamandwasthefirstwindpowerprojectthatnotonlyADBbutadditionoverthenextalltheotherparticipatinglendershavefinancedinthecountry.Thefinancingiscertified20years.MorethanjustasaGreenLoanbytheClimateBondsInitiative.Constructiontook18monthsfromstatisticalnumbers,theseMay2019toOctober2021.ThewindfarmswereconnectedinSeptember2021andbenefitsresonatewiththestartedoperatinganddeliveringpowertothenationalgridinOctober2021.communitiesaffected,offeringthepromiseofTheauthorsextendtheirgratitudetothefollowingofficesandindividualsfortheirvaluableenhancedlivelihoodsandinputsandunwaveringsupport:ADBEconomicResearchandDevelopmentImpactDepartment;economicprosperity.ShantanuChakraborty,MariaPatgeuana,andNguyenBaHungoftheADBVietNamResidentMission;LienNguyen,MichaelGabish,andNinhLeDooftheADBPrivateSectorOperations•SimilarinvestmentsintheDepartment;andthePC1GroupJointStockCompany.SpecialthanksarealsoextendedtosectormaybeconsideredArvinYana,communicationsconsultant,forresearchassistanceandcoordinationofpublication,inthefuture.AconduciveandtheADBDepartmentofCommunicationsandKnowledgeandManagementforensuringtheinvestmentenvironmentoverallqualityofthisknowledgeproduct.mustbecreated,andInthispublication,“$”referstoUnitedStatesdollars.communitiesneedtobeableADBrecognizes“Vietnam”asVietNam,and“Hanoi”asHaNoi.tobenefitfrominvestmentsandhaveavoiceinthedecision-makingprocess.ISBN978-92-9270-587-9(print)ISBN978-92-9270-588-6(electronic)ISSN2071-7202(print)ISSN2218-2675(electronic)PublicationStockNo.BRF240005-2DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/BRF240005-2ADBBRIEFSNO.286In2023,afteralmost2yearsofoperation,thePrivateSectorWindpowerdevelopmenthasbeeninstrumentalinVietNam’sOperationsDepartmentofADBimplementedaneconomiceffortstodiversifyitsenergymix,reducegreenhousegas(GHG)assessmentofthedirect,indirect,andinducedimpactsarisingfromemissions,andimproveenergysecurity.Thegrowthinthetheconstructionandoperationoftheproject,mainlyintermsofsectorissupportedbythegovernment’sstrongsupportandjobcreationandeconomicvalueaddition,usingatoolbasedonanimplementationofgenerousfeed-in-tariff(FIT).Theintroductioninput–output(I-O)model.ResearchonsocioeconomicimpactsofaFITof$0.085perkilowatt-hourforonshorewindprojectsofrenewableenergyprojects,especiallyonjobcreation,remainssparsebutisimportant(COBENEFITS2019).AssessingtheFigure1:VietNam—PowerGenerationStructureimpactsofrenewableenergyprojectshasgainedmomentum,givenandGrowthRate,2010–2022theincreasingrolerenewableenergyhastoplayinthetransitiontozeroemission.Soundinformationonexpectedoutcomes,such,asemploymentandincomegenerationatbothnationalandlocal,levels,isessentialforinformedpolicydecisionsandplanning.,,Thestudyaimedtomeasuretheimpactsofthiswindpower,project.Thisbriefsummarizesandcommunicatesthestudy,findings,particularlythebenefitsoftheinvestment,topolicymakersandthewiderpublic.-Electricitygeneration(GWh)DEVELOPMENTCONTEXTGrowth()RenewableenergydevelopmentinVietNamhasgainedsignificantImportFossilFuelsRenewableEnergymomentuminrecentyears.Thecountry,whichwastraditionallyGrowthRatedependentonfossilfuelstomeetenergyneeds,hasbeenactivelyRenewableEnergySharetransitioningtowardcleanerandmoresustainablesourcesofpower.Basedon2022data(VietNamElectricity2022),GWh=gigawatt-hour.renewablesourcesaccountedfor48%oftotalpowergenerationSource:VietNamElectricity.2022.AnnualReport.Hanoi.(130,000gigawatt-hour[GWh])inVietNam,comprisingmostlyhydropowerplants(35%)whilewind,solar,andbiomassaccountedin2018encouragedthedevelopmentofwindpowerprojectinfor13%.thecountry.1Thisledtoanincreaseininvestmentsandaddedcapacity.However,duetotheexpirationoftheFITin2021andVietNam,particularlythenorthernregion,traditionallyboaststhecoronavirusdisease(COVID-19)pandemic,installationofofageographyideallysuitedforthedevelopmentofhydropowernewwindpowerhassloweddown.Currently,theGovernmentofplants.Withitsruggedterrainandnumerousrivers,theregionVietNamisconsideringvariousalternativesupportoptionsforholdssubstantialhydropowerpotentialthathasbeenusedfromwinddevelopmentincludingauctioningandspecialarrangementstheearlydaysofVietNam’sindustrialization.However,astheforoffshorewind,amongothers.suitablelocationsforlargehydropowerprojectshaveallbeenused,thedynamicgrowthofhydropowerinthenorthhasslowed.InaTHELOTUSWINDPOWERPROJECTbidtomeetthesurgingdemandforelectricity,thecountryinitiallyturnedtomoreaccessibleandcost-effectivesources,includingtheTheprojectisinHuongHoaDistrict,QuangTriProvince,establishmentofseveralcoalpowerplantsinthenorthernregion,VietNam(seeMap).HuongHoaisamountainousruraldistrictandcombined-cyclegasturbinesinthesouthernregion.inthewestofQuangTriProvincewithapopulationofethnicVietnameseaswellasBrupeopleandTaOipeople.DuetoitsAsthenation’senergylandscapeevolvesandclimateconsiderationelevation;strongwindresources;anditsuniquegeographyofgainsimportance,thereisanotableshifttowardcleanerandmoresteepslopes,sharpcrests,andnarrowvalleyscoveredbydensesustainableoptions,leadingtothesignificantdevelopmentofsolarbroadleafevergreenforests,theareaisconducivetowindfarms.andwindenergyprojectsinthecenterandsouthernregions.QuangTriishometomanywindfarmsintheregion,totaling17asof2021.HuongHoaDistricthaspotentialforagriculturalSolarandwindenergyhaveslowlybecomethedrivingforcesproductionandtourismaswell.behindthefurtherincreaseoftheshareofrenewableenergy.Duringthe2010–2022period,theshareofrenewableenergyincreasedfrom27%to48%(Figure1).1SeeDecisionNo.39/2018/QD-TTg,10September2018,amendingseveralarticlesofDecisionNo.37/2011/QD-TTgofthePrimeMinisterdated29June2011onprovisionofassistanceindevelopmentofwindpowerprojectsinVietNaminNHQuang&Associates.2023.PolicyBriefforPreparationofJustEnergyTransitionPartnershipImplementationinVietNam:LegalAspects.2MeasuringtheEconomicImpactsofaWindPowerProjectinVietNamMap:LotusWindProject—LocationoftheWindFarmsSource:AsianDevelopmentBank.Thethree144-MWwindparksrequiredatotalinvestmentofTable1:LotusWindProject—ActualConstructionCosts$254.2million,with60%oftheconstructionmaterialandlaborbeinglocallysourced.TheturbinesandmajorequipmentwereConstructionItemsCostDomesticmostlyimported,butstill15%locallysourced(Table1).Locallabor($million)Shareaccountedfor77%ofthetotallaborcosts.Theprojectstarted(%)deliveringpowertothenationalgridinOctober2021.In2022,1.MainEquipmentCosts(Turbine)118.4theprojectdeliveredatotalof417.54GWhofelectricityallover15thecountry.Turbinesandequipment109.6100TheprojectenjoyedcertainprivilegesforgeneratingenergyfromTransportation8.899renewablesources(LNT&Partners2023).Underits20-year77powerpurchaseagreementwithVietNamElectricity,theproject2.BalanceofPlant112.790receivedaguaranteedFITof$0.085or1,928Vietnamesedong100(VND)perkilowatt-hour,excludingvalue-addedtax(VAT).Materials56.1Theimportsofrawmaterials,supplies,andcomponentsthat60cannotbedomesticallymanufacturedwereeligibleforimportLabor19.7dutyexemption(equipmentisnormallysubjectto5%import3taxand10%VAT).However,certainrenewableequipmentsuchDevelopmentandothercosts37.0aswindtowerandturbineswereexemptedfromimportduties.DuringtheCOVID-19pandemic,whichcoincidedwiththeproject3.ImportTax(Materialand23.1constructionphase,areducedVATof8%wasappliedtoallEquipmentPurchases)TotalProjectCost254.2Source:DatafromPC1GroupJointStockCompany.ADBBRIEFSNO.286businesses.Despitethesetaxexemptions,thecompanyreportedrelationshipsbetweenchangesindemandforgoodsandservices.tohavepaid$23.1milliontaxfortheimportationofmaterialsandThisallowsestimationoftheeffectsthateachdollarspentonaequipment(Table1).powergenerationprojectinaspecificregionhasonemploymentoreconomicactivitiesinthelocalarea.ThemodelincludessecondaryTheprojectisalsoentitledtocorporateincometax(CIT)reductioneffects,likeeffectsfromthedemandforsteelforthetower,anddoesnothavetopayCITforthefirst4years,withonlyaservicescateringtoemployees,andprovisionofofficespace.reducedCITrateforthenext11yearsthereafter(5%in9years,then10%forthesucceeding2years).Theregular20%CITrateappliesThefollowingemploymentandeconomicimpactanalysisbasedbeginningonthe16thyear.ontheJEDImodelcomparestheeconomiceffectsoftheproject’soperationswithacounterfactualsituationwherethesaidprojectADB’SVALUEADDITIONdoesnotexist.Inotherwords,theimpactsbeingassessedareeconomicoutcomesthatcouldnothavematerializedwithouttheADBservedasthemandatedleadarrangerandbookrunnerforthewindpowerprojectinthearea.Theultimatebenefitsgeneratedfinancingpackage;facilitatedafinancingstructurethataddressesdependontheextenttowhichthoseexpendituresarespentpowerpurchaseagreementrisks;andmobilizedinternationallocallyandthestructureofthelocaleconomy.Thethreeimpactcofinanciersforthelong-termUnitedStates(US)dollarfinancingatparametersbeingexaminedaredirecteffect,indirecteffect,andcompetitivecost.SuchfinancingisusuallynotavailableinVietNam.inducedeffect(Figure2).TheBloanstructureattractedinternationalcommercialbanksFigure2:LotusWindPowerProject—Economicandinstitutionalinvestors,mostofwhichhadnopre-existingImpactAssessmentBasedontheJobandrelationshipwiththesponsorsorVietNam’snascentrenewableEconomicDevelopmentImpactModelenergysector.ADB’sexpertiseinlarge-scalerenewableenergyprojectsservedasatrustedmarketreferenceandalleviatedsomeDirectoftheselong-heldworries.TheparticipationofADBtogetherwith•On-siteconstructiontheJapanInternationalCooperationAgencyandExportFinanceAustraliaasdirectlendersprovidedassurancethattheprojectmeetsworkersinternationalbestpracticeintermsofenvironmentalandsocial•Equipmentmanufacturersstandards,includinggenderequality.Thiswindpowerinvestmentis•DesignservicesalighthouseprojectinVietNam’sprivatesectorandwilllikelyattract•Maintenanceworkersotherinternationalinvestorsandfinanciersforsimilarinvestments.2•Securitypersonnel•ReplacementpartAPPROACHTOMEASUREMENTOFIMPACTSOFRENEWABLEENERGYPROJECTSmanufacturersThestudyusedananalyticaltooldevelopedbytheNationalIndirectRenewableEnergyLaboratoryandMRG&Associatestomodel•Legalservicesemploymentandeconomiceffects.ThemodeliscalledJEDI,which•NaturalresourcesuppliersstandsforJobs&EconomicDevelopmentImpact.3JEDIwaschosen•Constructionequipmentsuppliersbecauseitcanbeflexiblyappliedandadjustedtoprojectspecificsto•Wholesalebusinessesthatsellmodelrenewableenergyimpact.TheversionforLandBasedWindModel(W10.30.2020)wasusedandadjustedtotheproject.replacementparts•AccountingservicesTheJEDIisbasedonanI–Omethodologythatcalculatestheproject’simpactonemployment,earnings,value‑added,Inducedandgrosseconomicoutput.Usersneedtoinputbasicproject•Housinginformationandspecificationssuchaslocation,facilitysize,project•Retailerscosts,anddomesticshares.Themodelthenusesestablished•Restaurantsstandardmultipliersandconsumptionpatternstocompileand•Healthcareprovidersaggregatenationalandregionaleconomicanddemographicdata.•Agriculture,foodprovidersItcalculatestheimpactsbasedoninterindustrylinkagesandSource:AdaptedfromNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory.JEDI:Jobs&EconomicDevelopmentImpactModels.2DiscussionsareliftedfromanarticlewrittenbyMichaelGabisch,DesireeZhou,andNicholasMollerfromtheAsianDevelopmentBank,andBenThompsonfromMayerBrown,Singapore.SeeProjectFinanceInternational.2021.LotusBlossomsintheWind;andADB.2022.LotusBlossomsintheWind.3PubliclyavailableJEDImodelscanbedownloadedfromNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory.JEDI:Jobs&EconomicDevelopmentImpactModels.4MeasuringtheEconomicImpactsofaWindPowerProjectinVietNam(i)DirectimpactscaptureeconomicactivitiesrelateddirectlyFirst,theresultsoftheJEDIaregrossratherthannetestimates.totheinvestment,suchasconstruction,engineering,Potentialconsequenceslikepreplacingotheroperationsarenotprofessionalservices,ortheactualoperation.consideredintheimpactestimations.If,forexample,outputsfromawindfarmweretoreplacethosefromacoalplant,thecoalplant’s(ii)Indirectimpactsrepresenteconomicactivitiesresultingshutdownwouldnotbefactoredintotheprojectedimpacts.fromexpendituresoftheprojectforproductsorservices.TheseincludethelocalmanufacturingorassemblingofAdditionally,JEDIdoesnotconsiderpriceeffectsanddoesnotprojectpartsandintermediateproducts.Inthecaseofwindaccountforresourcelimits.Forinstance,themodeldoesnotfarms,indirectimpactsincludeactivitiesarisingfromthecalculatetheeffectsofopportunityuseofthefundsusedforthismanufactureofwindturbinessuchasactivitiesassociatedproject.Norareeffectsonwagesthroughincreasedemploymentwithitsintermediategoodslikesteel,resin,andfiberglass.demandconsidered.Thetoolassumesthatnomatterhowmuchisrequired,allinputs—includinglaborandcapital—arereadily(iii)Inducedimpactsrefertoeffectsdrivenbyspendingavailableandcostthesame.ofhouseholdearningsbythosepersonsdirectlyandindirectlyemployedbytheproject.InducedresultsareAlso,asI-Otablesusedinthemodelingaregenerallysourcedoftenassociatedwithincreasedbusinessactivitiesinlocalfromofficialstatistics,economicactivitiesthatarenotmonitoredrestaurants,hotels,andretailestablishmentsandothersuchastheblackmarket,informaltransactions,orexternalitieslikeentitiesthataretriggeredbythedirectandindirectimpacts.pollutionorclimateprotectionarenotincluded.Thesethreeeffectsyieldthetotalproject’simpacts.ThisanalysisAsmentioned,themodelusedcountry-specificdataandusedcountry-specificdataandcountry-specificmultipliersmultipliersandpersonalexpenditurepatternsfromnationalandpersonalexpenditurepatternsforVietNam,mostlyissuedstatisticsreports.Thestudyalsoincorporatedproject-specificbytheGeneralStatisticsOffice(GSO)forVietNam,withthedatasuchasprojectcosts,capacity,sharesofoverseasandlocallatestfiguresfrom2016.TheGSOprovidesanI-Omatrixofspending,amongothers.Likeanysimulationandmodeling,168x168products,whichareconvertedandalignedtothe16x16changestotheseparameterscouldaltertheresults.Forinstance,matrixusedintheJEDII-Otables.Toderivelocalizedimpacts,theanalysisutilizedtheI-OtablespreparedbytheGSOin2016.totheextentpossible,thestudyincorporatedproject-specificTheresearchersareawarethatotherVietNamI-Otablescanbedataanddomesticspendingshares.Actualprojectcostsandusedsuchasthesocialaccountingmatrix(SAM)fromtheGlobalotherinformationwereeitherprovidedbyPC1orcollectedTradeAnalysisProject.TheSAMmultipliersexpandtheI-Otablesduringfieldvisits.byconsideringconsumptionspillovereffects.SimulationsofimpactsusingtheSAMmultiplierscanbeconductedinTheJEDImodelreportseconomicimpactestimatesfortwofuturestudies.phases:constructionphaseandoperationandmaintenance(O&M)phase.TheconstructionphaseresultsaresummedupRESULTSintoonetotalforthe18-monthspanoftheconstructionperiod.TheO&MphaseresultsaregivenasannualfiguresfortheentireBelowarefindingsusingtheJEDImodel.operatinglifeofthefacility,estimatedas20yearsstartingwiththecommercialoperationdate.1.ImpactonJobGenerationTheeconometricresultsarecomplementedbyfindingsonhowJobsareexpressedasfull-timeequivalent(FTE)whereoneimpactsareperceivedontheground.Representativesfromjobistheequivalenttoonepersonworking40hoursperweek,fourcommunes(HuongTan,HuongPhung,TanLien,andTanyear-round.TheJEDImodelshowsthattheprojectsupportsLapcommunes)coveredbythewindfarmsandotherlocaljobgeneration.stakeholderswereinterviewed.ThesitevisitwasconductedinMay2023andcoordinatedwithcommuneleaderswhowereAtotalof1,574FTEsaretobecreatedduringprojectconstructionaskedtoconnecttheresearcherwithhouseholdsthathavebeen(Figure3).Ofthetotalconstructionjobs,morethanhalfaffectedbythewindfarm’sconstructionandoperationandare(i.e.,867FTEs)aredirecton-siteworkers,mainlythoseinthewillingtobeinterviewed.Duetotimeandbudgetconstraints,onlyconstructionandmanagementoftheprojectsuchasengineers,5–6householdsforeachcommunewereinterviewed(totaloftechnicians,andconstructionworkers.Around18%or285FTEs21households).MeetingswithPC1werealsoconductedtovalidatearerelatedtoindirecteffects,whichmayincludeemployeesatthecollectedinformation.subcomponentmanufacturers(i.e.,providingblades,steel,turbineparts)orserviceproviders(e.g.,logistics,transport).AtotalofSTUDYLIMITATIONS422inducedFTEsaregeneratedduetoincreasedeconomicactivitiesanddemand.ThesecouldcomefromincreaseddemandAlthoughtheJEDImodelisausefultoolforstraightforwardforfood,clothing,retailservices,publictransit,utilities,medicalestimationofprojectimpacts,therearelimitationstothemodel.services,insurance,orsimilaractivities.5ADBBRIEFSNO.286Figure4:LotusWindProject—EstimatedJobEarningsDuringConstructionandOperationPhasesFigure3:LotusWindPowerProject—EstimatedNumberofDirect,Indirect,($million)andInducedEmploymentGeneratedConstructionAnnualOperation(full-timeequivalent)andMaintenance,Number..,,..,..,ConstructionphaseOperationandmaintenancephaseDirectIndirectInduced(Temporaryjobs)(Permanentjobs;Annual)DirectIndirectInducedNote:BasedontheJobs&EconomicDevelopmentImpactModels.Note:BasedontheJobs&EconomicDevelopmentImpactModels.Source:AsianDevelopmentBank.Source:AsianDevelopmentBankestimates.Duringconstruction,theprojectisestimatedtogenerateprofessionals,securitypersonnel,andotherworkersdirectly$29.13millioninearnings,withthemajoritycomingfromon-siteinvolvedwithmaintainingthewindfarm.6JEDIalsoestimateslaborimpacts(Figure4).Jobearningsincludeanykindofincomeapproximately18jobsthataresupportedbythelocalsupplychain,fromworkandgenerallyincludeemployeewagesandsalaries,andwhichincludesmanufacturingworkersforreplacementpartssupplementalcostspaidbyemployers,suchascontributionsforandotherO&Mmaterials.Thisrelativelylowernumbercanbehealthinsuranceandretirement.Theanalysisusedthefollowingexplainedbythefactthatmostreplacementpartswillbeimported.earningsestimatesduringconstruction:(i)averageof$21,000Expendituresmadebyon-siteandsupplychainworkerssupportannuallyforon-siteworkers(directworkers);4(ii)averageof$18,000additional55inducedFTEsinunrelatedindustriesthatprovideannuallyforjobsthatsupplyservicesofmaterials,turbines,andlocalservicesorgoods.Jobearningsrelatedtotheoperationsupply-chain-relatedmaterials(indirectworkers);and(iii)averagetotaled$4.4millionannually,7withthemajoritycomingfromof$13,000annuallyforemployeesininducedjobs,supportedbyon‑siteworkers.spendingbyon-siteandsupplychainworkers(inducedworkers).5Inall,themodelestimatesthatforevery1MWcapacityinstalled,Thewindfarmsareexpectedtooperateforatleast20years.1.6O&Mjobsarecreatedbytheproject.ThisfigureisrelativelyThroughtheseyears,theprojectwillrequirelong-termemployeesconservativecomparedtothefindingsinthesimulationpreparedtooperateandmaintainthefacility,manyofthemresidentsorbytheInstituteforAdvancedSustainabilityStudiesandGreenpeoplewhohaverelocatedtoQuangTriProvince.BasedontheInnovationandDevelopmentCentre(COBENEFITS2019)JEDImodelresults,theprojectcreatesatotalof227long-termwherewindenergyinVietNamwillcreate2.8jobsperaverageorpermanentFTEs,arelativelylowfigurebecauseO&Mworkinstalled1MWcapacity.Ontheotherhand,theprojectnumbersforawindparkisnotverylabor-intensive.Some154FTEsarearesignificantlyhigherwhencomparedtoasimilarJEDImodelingon-sitepositionsforwindtechnicians,managers,administrativeconductedbyGreeneandGeisken(2013)fora147-MWwind4Theearningsofon-siteworkerswerebasedoncompanybooksin2020and2021.Thecompanypaidhighersalaries(doubleortriple,evenprovidinghighbonuses)asworkershadtoworkdoubletimeandovernightjusttobeatthedeadlineof30November2021(tobeeligiblefortheFIT).Theamountistheaverageforalltypesofworkers,includinginternationalandhighlyqualifiedworkersanddomesticworkers.5ThesenumbersarecomparablewithGSOstatistics,whereintheaveragecomparableearningsforahighlyqualifiedworkerintheconstructionsectorinVietNamis$8,000–$15,000annually.Indirectandinducedworkersinthefieldofrenewableenergyarenotcategoricallyclassifiedas“minimum-wage.”Thedesigners,constructionsupervisors,transport,andengineering,procurement,andconstructioncontractorswerepaidmuchhigherthanthe$15,000/year.6ThesenumberswerevalidatedwithPC1.ThetotaldirectemploymentoftheLotuswindfarmsis163personsin2023,closeto154personsontheJEDImodel.7TheanalysisusedthefollowingearningsestimatesduringO&M:(i)averageof$19,000annuallyforon-sitejobs(direct);and(ii)averageof$20,000annuallyeachforindirectjobsthatsupplyreplacementpartsoroff-siteserviceandforinducedjobs.Thesefiguresaresimilartothedatacollectedduringtheinterviewandsitevisits.6MeasuringtheEconomicImpactsofaWindPowerProjectinVietNamprojectinOklahomaCityintheUS,whereonly188jobswereturbinesandotherequipment.AccordingtotheProvincegeneratedduringconstruction,and148jobsduringO&M.CustomerAgency,inthefirst6monthsof2021,TheQuangTriNevertheless,thisassessmentshowedthattheprojecthastheCostumerAgencycollectedaboutVND567.7billion($25million)capacitytostimulatelocaljobcreationinthecountry.onwindequipmentimporttaxfromallwindfarmsinQuangTriProvince.2.ImpactontheEconomyThesameresultwasobservedforindirectimpact,whichhadanGrosseconomicoutputrepresentsthetotalvalueofeconomicequivalentof7.5:1ratio.Foreverydollarinprojectdevelopment,activitythatoccurswithinVietNambecauseoftheproject.$7.5wasgeneratedindirectlybytheproject.IndirectimpactThisrepresentsthecumulativeimpactsarisingnotonlyfromcoversactivitiesthatoriginatefromthecompanysupplierswiththeprojectbutfromothersectorsaswellsuchasconstructionfurthermaterialsuppliers.Thebiggestindirectimpactscomeandmanufacturingsectors,servicesandtransportation,andfromthelocalmanufacturingsectorduetoheavyinvestmentcommunicationsectors,whichhavebeentriggeredbytheproject.innewmanufacturingcapacityandpurchasingofmaterialsformanufacturingelectricalequipment.ThetotalindirectimpactisThemodelingshowsthatwindfarmscontributesignificantlyto$40.03million.thecountry’seconomicdevelopment.Duringconstruction,theprojectexpendituressupportapproximately$89.6millionofgrossDuringtheO&Mphase,theprojectcreatesapproximatelyeconomicoutput(Figure5).$9.5millioningrosseconomicoutputannually.Here,themajorityalsocomesfrominducedimpacts.On-sitelaborimpactsaccountThelargerportionofgrossoutputwasgeneratedthroughfor$0.3millionineconomicactivity.Localsupplychainimpactsinducedandindirectimpacts,whereastheprojectdevelopmentsupportapproximately$2.6millioningrossoutput.Comparedto(directimpact)isonlyasmalleffect.Around49%($43.9million)theresultsofGreeneandGeiske(2013)forOklahomaCitywhereofthegrossoutputisexpectedtobeinduced,whereasarounda147-MWwindprojectestimatedacombineddirecteconomic6%($5.7million)wouldbeon-siteprojectdevelopment.Thisimpactof$26.7millionannually,theLotusWindProject’slocalisroughlyequivalenttoa7.8:1ratio.Foreverydollarinprojectimpactissmall,whichisunderstandablebecausedirectmaterialsdevelopment,approximately$7.8wasinduced.Theseinducedusedforoperationsandmaintenancearemostlyimported.impactsincludehousingandretaileractivities,foodservices,andhealthcareservices,whichwereintensiveduringtheconstruction3.ImpactontheCommunityphase.OneofthesignificantcontributionsistaxontheimportedTheprojecthaspositiveimpactsonthelocalcommunitiesFigure5:LotusWindPowerProject—EstimatedbasedontheinterviewswithhouseholdsaffectedbythewindDirect,Indirect,andInducedGrossEconomicfarmconstruction(Boxes1and2).Inall,theprojectacquiredImpactsDuringConstructionandOperationPhases90.4hectaresoflandfromatotalof127households.Theprojectcompensatedthesehouseholdsfairlyandtransparentlyandalso($million)providedthemwithlivelihoodrestorationandethnicminoritydevelopmentplans.Theprojectalsoimprovedtheinfrastructureandservicesinthecommune,suchasroads,tourism,andcommerce.4.ImpactsontheEnvironment.TheclimatebenefitsarenotincludedintheJEDImodelbutcanbeseparatelyestimated.WindenergyisacleanandgreenValuesourceofpowerwithlittletonoGHGemissions.Harnessingwindenergyforelectricitygenerationcontributestothereductionofrelianceonfiniteandenvironmentallyharmfulfossilfuels,thereductionofoverallcarbonfootprint,andthe.mitigationofclimatechange...Theprojectstartedtogenerate125.0GWhofelectricityin2021Constructionphase..andincreaseditsoutputto417.6GWhin2022,almostreachingtheexpectedaveragelong-termoutput(Table2).OperationandmaintenancephaseComparedtotheaverageGHGemissionthatVietNam’sgenerationofelectricitycauses,thisinvestmentwillavoidGrossEconomicOutput6.2milliontonscarbondioxideequivalent(tCO2e)overthecourseoftheproject’s20-yeartechnicallifetime,orDirectIndirectInduced0.31milliontCO2eannually.Thisiscalculatedbycomparingthewithandwithouttheprojectscenarios.Withouttheproject,Note:BasedontheJobs&EconomicDevelopmentImpactModels.Source:AsianDevelopmentBank.7ADBBRIEFSNO.286Box1:LotusWindPowerProject—TransformingBox2:LotusWindPowerProject—BoostingtheLocalCommunityLocalEmploymentHoVanTinh,deputychiefoftheHuongTancommune—oneHoThiMyNhung,a32-year-oldresidentfromHuongHoa’scapitalofthethreecommunesaffectedbythedevelopmentofthetownofKheSanh,hasbeenapermanentstaffoftheLotusProjectthreeLotuswindfarms—describedtheimpactoftheprojectasOperationsManagementOfficesinceJuly2022.Despiteherlife‑changing.family’soperationofasnackeateryandherhusband’sirregularjob,itisherjobatLotusthatgivesherfamilyastableincome.“Theprojecthasimprovedourroads,tourism,andcommerce,”saidTinh,whosecommunehassevenvillageswith832households.“ItThroughouttheconstructionphase,allthreewindfarmsprioritizedhaschangedourlivesforthebetter.”hiringnearly200residentsforperiodsrangingfrom16to18months.TheseemploymentopportunitiesresultedinaverageImprovedroadways,initiallyconstructedtofacilitatethemonthlyincomesrangingfrom10millionto12millionVietnamesetransportationofwindturbinecomponentsandmaterials,havehaddong($423–$507).abroaderimpact,makingitmoreconvenienttotransportproductstomarketsandenablingchildrentoreachschoolsquickly.Thewindfarmspermanentlyemployabout40residentsinvariouscapacities,includingasofficestaff,securitypersonnel,cleaners,and“Ourroadsaremuchbetternow,makingiteasierforustotransportcanteenstaff.Thesepositionsofferanaveragemonthlyincomeofourproductstothemarketandforourchildrentogotoschool,”hearound$200.said.“Inthepast,itwouldtakealmostanhourforparentstobringtheirchildrentoschool.Nowitonlytakes10to15minutes.”“Ialwayshopedtohaveastablejobtosupportmychildren’sstudies,andtheLotusprojectfulfilledthis.WehopemoreprojectsTinhadded,“Thewindfarmshaveattractedmorevisitorstolikethiswillbeimplementedinourcommunity,”saidNhung.ourcommunewhowanttoseethewindturbinesandenjoythescenery.ThishascreatedmoreopportunitiesforjobsandNhung,whoraisesaseven-year-oldchildwithherself-employedsmallbusinessesforus.In2022alone,wehave4newcoffeehusbandandparents-in-law,reflectedonheremployment,saying,shopswithaviewofthewindturbines,3conveniencestores,“Thisjobgivesmeandmyfamilyasenseofstabilityinourfinances.10eaterycafeterias,2repairshops,2barbershops,and3smallAsawoman,itgivesmeabiggervoiceinthefamily’sdecisionecotourismspots.”making.”When20householdsfromHuongTancommunegaveupSource:ADB.2023.APrivateSectorWindFarminVietNamisPoweringportionsoftheirlandfortheconstructionofthewindtowersandtheGridandCommunities.Manila.transmissionlines,Tinhsaidtheprojectcompensatedthemfairlyandtransparentlywhilemaintainingorrestoringtheirlivelihood.Table2:PowerGenerationoftheLotusWindProjectSpecialattentionwasgiventoethnicgroupsinethnicminority(GWh)developmentplanspreparedbytheprojectteam.Livelihoodsupportincluded50chicksforbreedingorfatteninggiventoPowerGeneration2021a2022a2023andhouseholdsimpactedbytheproject;waterwellsfortwovillagesOnwardbwitheachservingaclusteroffamilies;aswellas30setsoftextbooks,clothing,televisionsets,speakers,andotheressentialsLienLap37129.4123.8forchildrenattendingpreschoolfor1year.Theprojectalsosupportedvariousculturalactivities,whileresidentsweregivenPhongNguyen47145.4152.5accesstoprojectamenitiessuchasfootballfields.PhongHuy41142.8152.9Tinhsaidtheyareproudtobepartofaproject,“whichnotonlyhelpsourcountrydeveloprenewableenergybutalsohelpsTotal125417.6429.2protecttheenvironmentthroughthereductionofgreenhousegasemissionswhileempoweringourcommunity.”aThethreewindfarmswerecommissionedinSeptemberandOctober2021.Theseareactualfigures.Source:ADB.2023.APrivateSectorWindFarminVietNamisPoweringtheGridandCommunities.Manila.bEstimatesbasedonaninternalAsianDevelopmentBanklinkeddocumentforeconomicanalysis.Sources:AsianDevelopmentBankandPC1GroupJointStockCompany.itwasassumedthatthedemandforenergywillbemetbyexistingBasedonestablishedmethodologiesofmultinationaldevelopmentenergycapacityinthecountry.Thewithoutprojectemissionconsideredistheaverageemissionsgeneratedbygrid-connectedbanksandADB,thisclimatebenefithasanestimatedannualvaluepowerplantswhengeneratingthesameamountofpowerasthewindpowerplants.8of$16.8million.AnnualCO2reductionwasvaluedat$54.1/tonin2023pricelevels,withanescalationof2%annuallyinrealtermstoreflectgrowingenvironmentalcostsofGHGemissions.8Theemissionfactoradoptedis0.7221tCO2e/MWh(MinistryofNaturalResourcesandEnvironment2022).Thecalculationdidnotconsiderlifecycleanalysisanddidnotaccountforemissionsthatmayhavecomefromtheconstructionofthewindfarms.8MeasuringtheEconomicImpactsofaWindPowerProjectinVietNamCONCLUSIONSANDRECOMMENDATIONSAconduciveinvestmentenvironmentandbalancedinterests,includingfortheaffectedcommunities,cancontinuetoattractOverthepastdecade,VietNamhaswitnessedaremarkablefurtherinvestmentsandcontinuetoprovideaprosperouswin–surgeinwindpowerdevelopment,andtheLotusWindPowerwinsituation.Projectisatypicalandlikelyrepresentativeexampleofthisrenewableenergyrevolution.REFERENCESTheanalyseshavepresentedanestimationofthetangibleCOBENEFITS.2019.FutureSkillsandJobCreationthroughbenefitsoftheLotusproject,andthefindingsunderscoreitsRenewableEnergyinVietnam:AssessingtheCo-benefitspositiveeconomicimpacts.Duringitsconstructionphase,theofDecarbonisingthePowerSector.Hanoi:Instituteprojectcreatedasubstantialnumberofjobstotaling1,574andforAdvancedSustainabilityStudies(IASS)andGreeninfusedlocaleconomieswithjobearningsof$29.13million.InnovationandDevelopmentCentre(GreenID).Moreover,itscontributiontothecountry’sGDPisestimatedat$89.6millionandsignifiesasubstantialeconomicstimulus.J.S.GreeneandM.Geisken.2013.SocioeconomicImpactsofWindFarmDevelopment:ACaseStudyofWeatherford,InitsO&Mphase,thepositiveeconomicimpactoftheprojectOklahoma.Energy,SustainabilityandSociety.3(2).isexemplifiedbytheannual227FTEjobs,$4.4millioninearnings,and$9.5millionofeconomyannualvalueaddition.LNT&Partners.2023.RenewableEnergyPolicyFrameworkinTheseareeconomiccontributionstoVietNamforthenextVietNam.LegalUpdate.20years.Complementingtheeconometricnumbers,benefitsfortheaffectedcommunitiespromiseimprovedlivelihoodsandMinistryofNaturalResourcesandEnvironment.2022.Officialeconomicprospectstothem.DispatchNo.1278/BDKH-TTBVTODonAnnouncingtheResultsofCalculatingtheEmissionCoefficientofVietNam’sProjectcomponentsthatareprocuredlocally,includingPowerGridin2021.Hanoi.constructionlaborandmaterials,generatedthemostbenefitsforthecountryandforthelocalcommunity,whileimportedNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory.JEDI:Jobs&EconomicturbinesandequipmenthavelessernationalimpactongrossDevelopmentImpactModels.economicoutput.However,furtherdevelopmentofwindpowermayincreaselocalmanufacturingandlocalsharesandthereforeVietNamElectricity.2022.AnnualReport.Hanoi.stimulatetheeconomyfurther.TheLotusWindPowerProjectisanexampleofharmoniouscoexistenceofenvironmentalsustainabilityandeconomicgrowth.Thecumulativebenefitspresentedinthisstudyfaroutweightheeconomiccostsandeventualtaxlossesassociatedwiththeincentivesgrantedbythegovernment.AbouttheAsianDevelopmentBankTheviewsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotADBiscommittedtoachievingaprosperous,inclusive,resilient,andnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesofADBoritsBoardofGovernorssustainableAsiaandthePacific,whilesustainingitseffortstoeradicateorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.ADBdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyextremepoverty.Establishedin1966,itisownedby68members—ofthedataincludedhereandacceptsnoresponsibilityforanyconsequence49fromtheregion.Itsmaininstrumentsforhelpingitsdevelopingmemberoftheiruse.Thementionofspecificcompaniesorproductsofmanufacturerscountriesarepolicydialogue,loans,equityinvestments,guarantees,grants,doesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyADBinpreferenceandtechnicalassistance.toothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.Bymakinganydesignationoforreferencetoaparticularterritoryorgeographicarea,orbyusingthetermADBBriefsarebasedonpapersornotespreparedbyADBstaffandtheir“country”inthispublication,ADBdoesnotintendtomakeanyjudgmentsasresourcepersons.Theseriesisdesignedtoprovideconcise,nontechnicaltothelegalorotherstatusofanyterritoryorarea.accountsofpolicyissuesoftopicalinterest,withaviewtofacilitatinginformeddebate.TheDepartmentofCommunicationsandKnowledgeManagementAsianDevelopmentBankadministerstheseries.6ADBAvenue,MandaluyongCity1550MetroManila,Philippineswww.adb.org/publications/series/adb-briefswww.adb.orgCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)©2024ADB.TheCClicensedoesnotapplytonon-ADBcopyrightmaterialsinthispublication.https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccesshttp://www.adb.org/publications/corrigendapubsmarketing@adb.org9

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