WorldEnergyInvestment2023世界能源投资2023TimGould,ChiefEnergyEconomist蒂姆·古尔德，首席能源经济学家Paris,20September2023法国巴黎，2023年9月20日Cleanenergyinvestmentiswideningthegapoverfossilfuels清洁能源与化石燃料投资的差距正在扩大Globalenergyinvestmentincleanenergyandinfossilfuels全球对清洁能源和化石燃料的能源投资BillionUSD(2022)20001600Cleanenergy清洁能源Cleanenergy1200Fossilfuels化石能源清洁能源800Fossilfuels400化石燃料201520162017201820192020202120222023eForeverydollarinvestedinfossilfuels,about1.7dollarsarenowgoingintocleanenergy.Fiveyearsago,thisratiowasone-to-one.现在，每投资1美元化石燃料，就有约1.7美元投资于清洁能源。五年前，这个比例是一比一。IEA2023.Allrightsreserved.Page2Solarinvestmentiseclipsingoilproductioninvestment太阳能投资正在大幅超越石油生产投资BillionUSD(2022)Oilproductioninvestmentandsolarinvestment石油生产投资和太阳能投资700600Globaloil500Production全球石油生产投资400300200Solar太阳能投资10020132023eMorethanonebilliondollarsisspenteverydayonsolar,平均每日有超过十亿美元的太阳能投资，whichissettoovertakeinvestmentinoilproductionforthefirsttime首次超越石油生产投资。IEA2023.Allrightsreserved.Page3Energyinvestmentisupalmostacrosstheboard能源投资全方位增长FuelsupplyinvestmentPowerinvestmentEnduseinvestment燃料供应投资电力投资终端投资BillionUSD(2022)600400200201920212023201920212023201920212023201920212023201920212023201920212023201920212023201920212023201920212023201920212023UpstreamMidstreamCoalLow-emissionRenewablesFossilGridsandNuclearEfficiencyElectrification煤炭核能发电能源效率oilandgasoilandgasFuels可再生能源发电化石能源发电Storageandother电气化与其他上游石油天然气中游石油天然气低排放燃料电网与储存Onlyinvestmentsinupstreamoilandgasandfossilfuel-firedpowergenerationremainbelowpre-pandemiclevels.只有上游石油和天然气以及化石燃料发电的投资仍低于疫情前水平。IEA2023.Allrightsreserved.Page4Growthincleanenergyinvestmenthasbeenstrong,butuneven清洁能源投资增长强劲，但不平衡Changeinannualcleanenergyinvestmentinselectedcountriesandregionsbetween2019and2023e2019年至2023年部分国家和地区年度清洁能源投资变化China中国EuropeanUnion欧盟UnitedStates美国Japan日本India印度Africa非洲Brazil巴西MiddleEast中东Indonesia印尼Russia俄罗斯-10205080110140170200BillionUSD(2022)Therearebrightspotsinothercountries,butmorethan90%oftheincreaseincleanenergyinvestmentsince2021hastakenplaceinadvancedeconomiesandChina.尽管其他国家也有投资亮点，但自2021年以来，清洁能源投资增幅中有超过90%来源于中国和发达国家经济体。IEA2023.Allrightsreserved.Page5GasinvestmentsrespondtoRussia’scuts天然气投资对俄罗斯制裁作出了反应ChangeinglobalinvestmentinnaturalgassupplyAnnualLNGcapacityadditions全球天然气供应投资变化每年新增液化天然气产能BillionUSD(2022)30120Bcmperyear1510080-1560Export-3040出口-4520202120232025Import-602019进口20192020202120222023e2027Akeydilemmaforinvestorsundertakinglarge,capital‐intensivegassupplyprojectsishowtoreconcilestrongnear‐termdemandgrowthwithuncertainandpossiblydeclininglonger-termdemand对于开展大型资本密集型天然气供应项目的投资者来说，一个关键的困境是如何协调近期内强劲增长的需求，以及长期不确定且可能下降的需求。IEA2023.Allrightsreserved.Page6Signsoflifeforlow-emissionsfuels低排放燃料抬头CapacityadditionsofhydrogenelectrolysisandCO2capturebyannouncedstartdate,2017-2026电解氢和碳捕捉的产能增长（按照公布的开始日期），2017-2026年HydrogenelectrolysisCCUS3090GWMtCO₂/yr257520601545103051520172018201920202021202220232024202520262017201820192020202120222023202420252026NorthAmericaEuropeLatinAmericaChinaAsiaPacificMiddleEastOtherStrongpolicysignalsandnewsupportschemeshavetriggeredarapidexpansionintheprojectpipelinesforlow-emissionshydrogenandCCUS有力的政策信号和新的支持计划促进了低排放氢气与CCUS技术相关试点项目的快速扩张。IEA2023.Allrightsreserved.Page7Cancleanenergy&criticalmineralsuppliesexpandintandem?清洁能源和关键矿产供应能否同步扩大？Lithium-ionbatterymanufacturingcapacity锂离子电池制造产能Capitalexpenditurebymajorminingcompaniesinnon-ferrousmetals主要矿业公司在有色金属的资本支出TWh840BillionUSD(2022)Restofworld其他6UnitedStates30美国Europe4欧洲20China2中国1020222025203020182019202020212022Competitionforcleanenergymanufacturingissteppingupascountriesandcompanieslooktosecurepositionsinmajorgrowthsectors;reliable,diversesuppliesofcriticalmineralsandmetalsarecriticaltosmoothtransitions随着各国和企业寻求在主要增长领域占据一席之地，清洁能源制造业的竞争正在加剧；关键矿物和金属的可靠、多样化供应对于平稳过渡至关重要。IEA2023.Allrightsreserved.Page8Cansustainablefinancegettowhereit’sneededmost?可持续金融是否足够有针对性？Sustainabledebtissuances可持续债务发行情况2022Sustainabledebtissuances可持续债务发行BillionUSD(2022)1800OtherEMDE其他新兴发1500展中经济体10%USD1.5China12%trillion78%1200中国AdvancedEconomies发达经济体900Cleanenergyspending清洁能源支出2022600OtherEMDE16%其他新兴发展300中经济体USD1.6trillion201620172018201920202021202232%52%Government政府Corporates,financialsandothers企业及其他China中国AdvancedEconomies发达经济体Sustainablefinancehasweatheredthestormoftheenergycrisis,butbigopenquestionsremainonhowtomobilisegreatersupportfortransitionsinemissions-intensivesectorsandindevelopingeconomies可持续金融已经受住了能源危机的风暴，但如何动员更多金融资源，以推动排放密集型行业、发展中经济体的转型，仍然是一个重大问题。IEA2023.Allrightsreserved.Page9Strongmomentum,butalongwaytogoFossilfuels势头强劲，但任重而道远HistoricalinvestmentinenergybenchmarkedagainstneedsinIEAscenariosin2030以IEA2030年情景需求为基准的历史能源投资Cleanenergy清洁能源5TrillionUSD(2022)432120192020202120222023eSTEPSAPSNZE20192020202120222023eSTEPSAPSNZECleanelectrification20302030清洁电气化Low-emissionfuelsEnergyefficiencyCoalOilNaturalgas煤炭石油天然气低排放燃料能源效率Scalingupcleaninvestment,particularlyinemerginganddevelopingeconomies,isthekeytaskforthesustainableandsecuretransformationoftheenergysector如何扩大清洁投资，尤其在新兴和发展中经济体中，是能源部门可持续、安全转型的关键任务。IEA2023.Allrightsreserved.Page10DrilldownintoinvestmentenvironmentinAfrica深入了解非洲的投资环境Thisnewreport,incollaborationwiththeAfDB,explorestheinvestmentneedsforAfricatoachieveuniversalenergyaccessby2030andtheNDCsinfullandontime在IEA与非洲开发银行合作的新报告中，探讨了非洲到2030年实现普遍能源获取，以及全面准时实现国家自主贡献的投资需求。IEA2023.Allrightsreserved.Page11UnlockingAfrica’scleanenergypotential释放非洲清洁能源潜力EnergyinvestmentinAfrica,byscenario2022-2030BillionUSD(2022)225Other其他180Efficiency能源效率135Access能源获取90Grids电网45Renewables可再生能源20222030Fossilfuels化石能源Reachingthecontinent’ssustainabledevelopmentgoals,includingenergyaccessandnationalclimatetargets,seesinvestmentmorethandoublefromtoday’slevelsby2030;allthegrowthcomesfromcleanenergyandinfrastructure为了实现非洲大陆的可持续发展目标，包括能源获取和国家气候目标，到2030年，投资将比当今水平增加一倍以上，所有的增长都将来自清洁能源和基础设施IEA2023.Allrightsreserved.Page12IEA2023.Allrightsreserved.Page13