Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbookABloombergNEFspecialreportpreparedforCOP26November10,2021UNDEREMBARGOUNTILNOVEMBER10,2021Designedcoveranddividerpageswillbeaddedtothefinalversion1Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021ThisspecialreporthasbeenproducedbyBloombergNEFattherequestoftheU.K.COP26PresidencyandinpartnershipwithBloombergPhilanthropies,tocoincidewithCOP26,the2021UnitedNationsClimateChangeConference.SincethelastConferenceofthePartiesinlate2019,globalmomentumtowardszero-emissionsroadtransporthasacceleratedsignificantly.Justafewsignsofprogressinclude:●Annualelectricvehiclesalesareontrackforaround5.6millionunitsin2021,upfrom2.1min2019and3.1min2020.7.2%ofnewcarssoldgloballyinthefirsthalfofthisyearwereelectric,upfrom2.6%in2019and4.3%in2020.Theglobalcleanroadtransportmarketwillbewortharound$244billionthisyear.●Therearemorethan500zero-emissionvehiclemodelsavailabletobuyglobally,up37%since2019.●ProposedandconfirmedrulesintheU.S.,EUandChinaimplythatEVswillberoughly20-30%ofcarsalesinthosemarketsby2025.●Automakershavecollectivelycommittedtosellaround40millionEVsperyearby2030,andautomakerswithplannedphase-outsofcombustionenginesnowaccountfor27%oftheglobalautomarket.ThisZero-EmissionVehiclesFactbookdocumentstheprogressthathasbeenmadetowardsglobalnetzerointheroadtransportsector,andshowsthatthefutureisbrighterthaneverforzero-emissionvehicles(ZEVs).Still,whilemanyoftheindicatorsinthisreportarepointingintherightdirection,mostofthemstillhavealongwaytogobeforewecanbeconfidentthatweareonazero-emissionstrajectory.National,regionalandlocalgovernmentswillneedtocontinuetoraiseambitionandimplementstable,long-termpoliciesthatinducethegrowthofzero-emissionstransport,andmanagethephase-outofpollutingvehicles.Manufacturersandtechnologycompanieswillneedtoacceleratethedevelopmentanddeploymentofvehiclesandsupportingtechnology,suchasbatteries,infrastructureandsoftware.Andtheprivateandpublicsectorswillneedtoworktogethertogrowanddevelopthenewsupplychainsandskillsbasesrequiredtoenablethetransitioninallcountries.Particularattentionisneededtosupportthetransitiontozero-emissiontransportindevelopingeconomies.StrongerinternationalcollaborationandfinancialandtechnicalassistancewillbeneededtoaccelerateZEVadoptioninthesecountries.Thisreportisstructuredaroundfourkeyelementsofthezero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)transition:(1)ZEVmarketoverview,(2)marketdrivers,(3)corporatecommitmentsand(4)governmentcommitments.Wehopeyoufindthisfactbookvaluable,andthatitstimulatesfurtherdebateanddiscussiononpathwaystozero-emissiontransport.Introductionandkeymessages2Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021ContentsZero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)marketoverview3Marketdrivers21Corporatecommitments41Governmentcommitments483Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Zero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)marketoverviewRapidprogress,risingmomentum4Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,20210.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.62015201620172018201920202021eBillionOtherU.S.EuropeChinaSource:BloombergNEF,nationalstatisticalagencies.Note:includespassengercars,commercialvehiclesandbuses;excludestwo-andthree-wheelvehiclesTheglobalroadvehiclefleetcontinuestogrowTheglobalfleetoffour-wheeledroadvehiclescontinuestoriseandcurrentlystandsatcloseto1.5billionvehicles.●Thistotalincludescars,trucksandbuses.●Thegrowthrateispositivebutslowing,reachingonlyabout1%in2021.●ThisgrowthrateisfasterincountriesoutsideofthelargestmarketsintheU.S.,ChinaandEurope–marked‘Other’inthechart.Morethan50millioncars,trucksandbuseswereaddedtotheglobalfleetbetween2019andmid-2021.Chinaaccountedforabout40%oftheincreaseand,byend-2021,thecountryislikelytobehometothelargestfleetoffour-wheeledvehiclesglobally.Theglobalfleetoftwo-andthree-wheelersisalmostasbig,exceedingonebillion.China,IndiaandcountriesinSoutheastAsiaarebyfarthelargestmarketsfortwo-andthree-wheelersglobally.Globalfour-wheeledvehiclefleetbyregionZero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)marketoverview5Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021ProgresssinceCOP25Source:BloombergNEF.Note:includespassengervehicles,commercialvehicles,busesandtwo-andthree-wheeleremissionsfromtailpipe,power.2021isestimatedamountbasedonchangestotheEVfleetthroughtheendof2021.GlobalroadtransportemissionsarereboundingfromtheCovid-19shockGlobalroadtransportemissionsareontheriseagain,afterfallingin2020duetotheCovid-19pandemic.Zero-emissionvehiclescan,andhave,playedaroleincurbingincreasesinroadtransportemissions,butthereismuchworktodotodecarbonizetheroadtransportsectormovingforward.NorthAmericahasthehighestemissionsfromroadtransport,atanestimated1.5GtCO2in2021.BNEFestimatesthatNorthAmericanroadtransportemissionswillbeup4%bytheendof2021,comparedto2020.EuropeandChinaarethenexthighestemitters,withroadtransportemissionsataround0.90GtCO2and0.70GtC02,respectively,in2021.IndiaandtheRestoftheWorldmakeup48%ofglobalroadtransportemissionstoday.Thesetworegionssawemissionsreducedcollectivelyby8%since2019,toanestimated2.9GtCO2in2021.Moreeffortisneededtoaddresstheneedformarketandsupplychaintransitiontonet-zeroinemerginganddevelopingeconomies.GlobalCO2emissionsfromroadtransportbyregion0123456789102015201620172018201920202021eGtCO2OtherIndiaEuropeNorthAmericaChinaZero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)marketoverview6Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Note:categorisationsareforthepurposeofclarifyingthisreportonly.Electricvehicles(EVs)andzero-emissionvehicles(ZEVs):scopeFuelcellvehicle(FCV)Batteryelectricvehicle(BEV)Plug-inhybridelectricvehicle(PHEV)Hybridvehicle(non-pluggable)Zero-emissionvehicles(ZEVs)Electricvehicles(EVs)Forthepurposesofthisreport,wedefinezero-emissionvehicles(ZEVs)asthosevehiclesthatneveremitcarbondioxidefromtheirtailpipes.ThismeansthatZEVs,inthisreport,onlyincludepureBEVsandFCVs,neitherofwhichhaveinternalcombustionengines.Itisunderstoodthatthesevehiclesshouldbefueledfromcleanelectricity/hydrogeniftheyaretobetrulyzero-emissioninoperation.Electricvehicles(EVs)asacategoryarecommonlyunderstoodtoincludeplug-inhybrids(PHEVs).Inthisreport,asinallotherBNEFpublications,weincludePHEVsinourdefinitionofelectricvehicles(EVs),alongsidepureBEVs.However,PHEVsareexcludedinsomepagesofthisreportthatarefocusedontheZEVdefinitionabove.Someslidesinthisreportfocusonawiderdefinition“EVsandFCVs”,encompassingalloftheabove.HybridvehiclesthatcannotbechargedfromanexternalpowersourcearenotincludedinourdefinitionsofZEVorEVinthisreport.(Thesevehicletypescontaincombustionengines)Zero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)marketoverview7Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF,IEA,OPEC.Note:IEAistheirbase-case(statepolicyscenariofor2020and2021,newpolicyscenariofor2019).BNEF‘20and‘21areBEVsandFCVs(excl.PHEVs).OPECincludesallEVsandFCVs.BNEF’19andIEAreportsareBEVsonly.()IEAreportonlygoesthrough2030.Theoutlookforzero-emissionvehicleshasimprovedmarkedlyLong-termoutlooksforbatteryelectricandfuelcellvehicleadoptionhavebecomemorebullishinthelasttwoyears.CompaniesforecastingZEVadoptionnowseetensofmillionsmorebatteryelectricvehicles(BEVs)andfuelcellvehicles(FCVs)ontheroadinthefuturethantheyexpectedin2019.Inits2021Long-TermElectricVehicleOutlook,BNEFprojectstheglobalpassengerandcommercialZEVfleettohit677millionvehiclesby2040.In2019,thisforecastcalledforjust495millionZEVsontheroadin2040.ThelatestoutlookseespassengerZEVsmakingup39%ofthe2040passengervehiclefleet,upfrom26%inthe2019report.CommercialZEVshit24%ofthe2040commercialfleetinEVO2021,upfrom19%in2019.Intotal,acrosspassengerandcommercialvehicles,the2040ZEVfleetsharewentfrom25%in2019to36%inthe2021report.Otherfirmshavealsobecomemorebullishintheirmostrecentpublications,increasingtheirZEVadoptionoutlooks.TheIEA’slatestGlobalEVOutlookincreasesitsBEVfleetby7%,to91millioninthe2021report,from86millionin2019.OPEChasreviseditsprojected2040EVandFCVfleetupby11%initsmostrecentWorldofOilpublication,to369millionEVsandFCVsontheroad.GlobalpassengerandcommercialZEVfleet,variousoutlooks010020030040050060070080020202025203020352040MillionBNEF'21BNEF'20BNEF'19OPEC'21OPEC'20OPEC'19IEA'21IEA'20IEA'19Zero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)marketoverview8Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF,IEA.Note:IEAistheirbase-case(statepolicyscenariofor2020and2021,newpolicyscenariofor2019.BNEF‘20and‘21areBEVsandFCVs(excl.PHEVs).IEABEVshareofsalesareestimatesbasedonthedataprovidedintheirreports.Officialreportsavailableatorganizationwebsites.ZEVsarenowexpectedtotakemoremarketshare,soonerRecentmajorreportsareprojectingZEVstocaptureahighershareofpassengervehiclesales,soonerthanpreviouslyexpected.Shareofsalesisausefulmetric,distinctfromtotalZEVsales.Thisisbecausedifferentreportshavedivergingviewsofhowoverallglobalvehiclesaleswillchangeovertime.Thesedependondifferingviewsonoverallcarownershiptrends,aswellastherolesofautonomousandsharedmobilitytechnologies,andothermodesoftransport.InBNEF’sLong-TermElectricVehicleOutlook2021,ZEVs’shareofpassengervehiclesalesreaches70%globallyby2040.Thisisup20percentagepointsfromthe2019report.In2019,BNEFexpectedBEVswouldhit50%ofpassengervehiclesalesby2040(outlookdidnotincludeFCVs).IEA’sGlobalEVOutlookin2021callsforanestimated11%BEVshareofpassengervehiclesalesby2030.BNEF’s2021reportcallsforZEVshareofsalesof29%bythen.The2019IEAforecastwaslower,atanestimated9%BEVsshareofnewpassengervehiclesalesin2030.GlobalZEVshareofpassengervehiclesales,variousoutlooks0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20202025203020352040BNEF'21BNEF'20BNEF'19IEA'21IEA'20IEA'19Zero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)marketoverview9Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021ProgresssinceCOP250.50.71.11.92.13.15.601234562015201620172018201920202021eMillionChinaEuropeU.S.CanadaJapanSouthKoreaOther1H2021(total2.5m)Estimated2H2021Source:BloombergNEF,Marklines,EAFO,governmentregistrationagencies.Note:IncludesBEV,PHEVandFCVvehicles.PassengerelectricvehiclessaleshaveacceleratedsignificantlysinceCOP25GlobalpassengerEVsalesgrewby47%in2020,tomorethan3.1million.ThissurgeinEVsaleswasinstarkcontrasttotheoveralldeclineinthepassengervehiclemarket,whichwasdown14%duetothepandemic.TheEVsurgehascontinuedinto2021.Inthefirstsixmonthsof2021,over2.5millionEVsweresoldglobally–over140%morethanin1H2019.ChinaandEuropehaveledtheglobalpassengerEVandFCVmarketsince2015,andhavestretchedouttheiradvantageinthelasttwoyears.EuropeandChinawereresponsiblefor82%ofglobalEVsalesin2020and84%in1H2021.ThenextlargestmarketwastheU.S.at11%oftheglobalmarketin1H2021.BNEFexpects2021tobeyetanotherrecordyearforEVsalesglobally,at5.6millionsoldintotal.Thiswouldput2021passengerEVsales83%higherthanin2020,and168%higherthanin2019.GlobalelectricvehiclesalesbyregionZero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)marketoverview10Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF.GlobalpassengervehiclesalesbydrivetrainElectricvehiclesexceeded7%ofglobalcarsalesin1H2021,upfromjust2.8%in2019.RecordhighEVsalesin2020putadentinsalesofinternalcombustionengine(ICE)vehicles.Theseweredown16%globallyin2020,allowingforEVstogainmarketshare.ChinaandEuropearevisiblypullingaheadinmarketshareterms,justastheyareinabsoluteterms.11%and17%ofcarssoldinChinaandEurope,respectively,wereelectricin1H2021,incontrastto1%inJapanand3%inNorthAmerica.ThebiggestcarmarketsinEuropehavemadesignificantprogresssince2019.Between1H2019and1H2021,theEVshareofsaleshasincreased:●From3%to22%inGermany●From2.8%to16%inFrance●From0.5%to8%inItalyEVsarenowmorethan7%oftheglobalpassengervehiclemarketEV,2.6%ICE,97.4%EV,4.3%ICE,95.7%EV,7.2%ICE,92.8%84million73million35million201920201H2021Zero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)marketoverview11Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF.Globally,salesofbatteryelectricvehiclesoutweighthoseofplug-inhybridsandfuelcellvehicles.●BEVswerenearly5%of1H2021globalpassengervehiclesales,whilePHEVswerejustover2%.●FCVsareaminisculeportionofthepassengervehiclemarket,below1%ofsalesglobally.ChinaandtheU.S.followthissametrend.InChina,BEVs’marketshareincreasedfrom4%in2019toaround9%inthefirsthalfof2021.Meanwhile,intheU.S.,BEVsaccountedforabout2.6%ofallvehiclessoldin1H2021.Plug-inhybrids(PHEVs),whicharenotstrictlyzero-emissionvehicles,havefaredconsiderablybetterinEurope.OverhalfofallEVssoldinEuropein1H2021werePHEVs,upfrom35%in2019.Europe’sPHEVshareofpassengervehiclesaleshasjumpedasaresult,fromover1%in2019to8%inthefirsthalfof2021.PurebatteryEVsarebeatingoutplug-inhybrids,exceptinEuropeChinaEuropeU.S.GlobalPassengervehicleshareofsalesbydrivetrain0%2%4%6%8%10%20152017201920211H0%2%4%6%8%10%20152017201920211H0%2%4%6%8%10%20152017201920211H0%2%4%6%8%10%20152017201920211H0%10%20152016201720182019202020211HBEVPHEVFCVZero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)marketoverview12Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021024681012142015201620172018201920201H2021MillionOtherS.KoreaJapanU.S.EuropeChinaProgresssinceCOP25Source:BloombergNEF.Note:EVincludesBEVandPHEVs.GlobalpassengerEVandFCVfleetThefleetofpassengerelectricandfuelcellvehicleshasdoubledinsizesince2019.Acumulativetotalof12.6millionEVsandFCVshadbeensoldupto1H2021,upfromjust6.9millionattheendof2019.Weassumethemajorityofthesevehiclesarestillontheroad.Thisequatestojust1%oftheglobalfleetofpassengervehicles,ChinaandEuropearehometo76%ofthatfleet.●Therearenownearly5.5millionEVsinChina.●Thereare4.1millionEVsinEurope–morethantwicethe2019level.●TheU.Scomesinthird,withanEVandFCVpassengerfleetof2millionvehicles–aroundhalfofthatinEurope.Therearenownearly13millionpassengerEVsandFCVsontheroad….Zero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)marketoverview13Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF.Note:ZEVsonlyincludebatteryelectricvehicles(BEVs)andfuelcellvehicles(FCVs).GlobalpassengerZEVfleet(excludesplug-inhybrids)Usingstrictercriteria,thefleetoftruezero-emissionpassengervehicles(excludingPHEVs)hasalsonearlydoubledinsizesince2019.Cumulativeall-timesalesofzero-emissionpassengervehiclesreached8.5millionbythemiddleof2021,upfromjust4.6millionattheendof2019.DespiteEurope’shighershareofPHEVs,itisstillthesecondbiggestZEVmarketglobally,afterChina.●Therearenownearly4.3millionZEVsinChina,followedbyEuropeat2.2million–morethantwicethe2019level.●TheU.Sisinthirdplace,withaZEVpassengerfleetaround40%ofthatinEurope,at1.3millionvehicles.….butonlyaround9millionaretrulyzero-emission01234567892015201620172018201920201H2021MillionOtherS.KoreaJapanU.S.EuropeChinaProgresssinceCOP25Zero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)marketoverview14Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021ProgresssinceCOP25Source:BloombergNEF,EAFO,CAIN,KoreaMinistryofTransport,nationalregistrationagencies.CommercialZEVsalesaregrowingfromalowerbaseSalesofelectricvansandtrucksarerisingbutremainlowcomparedtotheprogressseeninpassengercars.Only0.8%ofvansandtruckswerezero-emissionmodelsin1H2021.Mostareelectriclight-dutyvansandtrucksinsomeEUcountries,ChinaandSouthKorea.Adoptionin2020rangedfromlessthan1%inChina,to2-3%inFranceandGermany,andmorethan12%inSouthKorea.Zero-emissionvehiclesinheaviersegmentsareonlynowstartingtobecomeavailableinvariousmarkets.Salesofzero-emissionmedium-andheavy-dutytruckswerejustover3,500unitsin2020,acceleratingto2,500in1H2021.Suchvehiclesarecurrentlyusedinurbanandsuburbanroutesmostlyforgarbagecollection,cityandregionaldistributionandasyardtractors.TheavailabilityofthesevehiclesisgraduallyincreasinginEurope,ChinaandtheU.S.Fuelcelltrucksarestillatthetrialphase.Truckspoweredbyhydrogenarestillatanearlierstageofdevelopmentandcommercialization.Largetruckmakersareplanningtobeginsalesofhydrogentruckslaterinthisdecade.GlobalcommercialZEVsales,byregion0204060801001201401602015201620172018201920202021eThousandChinaEuropeOther1H2021(total70,000)Estimated2H2021Zero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)marketoverview15Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021ProgresssinceCOP25Source:BloombergNEF,variousgovernmentsandtradeassociations.Theglobalzero-emissionbusfleethasundergoneahugeexpansionTheglobalzero-emissionbusfleethasrisenby22%sinceCOP25,andsix-foldsince2015.In2019,therewereabout522,000zero-emissionbusesontheroadglobally.Bymid-2021,weestimatethatthisnumberhadgrowntoaround636,000units.Mostofthesebuses–99%oftheZEVfleet–areelectricbuses(e-buses).Chinacontinuestoleadthemarket,makingupabout97%oftheglobalfleet.China’szero-emissionfleetis619,000units–20%higherthantwoyearsago.Citieshaveledthetransition,withsomesuchasShenzhenhittinga100%ZEVfleetin2017.TheEuropeanzero-emissionbusfleethasgrownby71%since2019,fromover5,000unitsto8,700units.Thisexpansionisbeingdrivenbycommitmentsfrommajorcitiestobeginprocuringonlyzero-emissionbuses.ExamplesincludeLondon,Copenhagen,ParisandMadrid.E-busdeploymentintheU.S.isstillinitsinfancy.TheU.S.e-busfleetgrewby170%to1,300unitssince2019.Californiaisthemaindriverofgrowthtodate.Thereareonlylimitedfuelcellbusesinthefleet.Globalzero-emissionbusfleetbyregion/country01002003004005006007002015201620172018201920201H2021ThousandJapanIndiaCanadaU.S.SouthKoreaSoutheastAsiaOtherEuropeChinaZero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)marketoverview16Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021ProgresssinceCOP25781001051049681930204060801001202015201620172018201920202021eThousandJapanIndiaCanadaU.S.SouthKoreaSoutheastAsiaOtherEuropeChina1H2021(total33k)Estimated2H2021Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Chinaincludesmuniandnon-munibuses.2021salesareestimated.Zero-emissionbussalesarereturningtogrowth,drivenbyChinaGlobalzero-emissionbussalesareexpectedtorisetoover93,000unitsin2021.Whilethisrepresents15%growthfrom2020,itisessentiallyflatsince2019.Theglobalzero-emissionbusmarkethasbeenpropelledprimarilybygrowthinChina,unlikepassengerZEVswhichhavetakenoffinmanymarkets.●Growthtodatehasbeendrivenbynationalsubsidies,andmunicipalpolicytotransitionbusfleetstozero-emissionresources.Inthefirsthalfof2021,around30,000zero-emissionbuseshavebeensold.●China’szero-emissionbusmarketistypicallystrongerinthesecondhalfoftheyear,andtherewillbeadesireamongbuyersandmanufacturerstoclaimsubsidiesbeforetheyphaseoutin2022.Europe’szero-emissionbussectorwasthesecondlargestafterChina,withover2,300unitssoldin2020.Thelastfewyearshaveseenstrongersalesintheregionasmoreandmorecitiesbegintodecarbonize.Globalzero-emissionbussalesbyregion/countryZero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)marketoverview17Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF.Salesofelectrictwo-wheelerswere9timeshigherthanpassengerEVsin2020Electrictwo-wheelersaresellinginverylargenumbers,totaling27millionunitsin2020–andtheirmarketsharesurgedduringthepandemic.Whileglobalsalesoftwo-wheelersweredown11%in2020,salesoftheelectricvarietygrewby11%.Nearly70%oftwo-wheelerssoldinChina,andjustunder40%globally,wereelectricin2020.●Newnationale-bikestandardsintroducedinChinain2019requireallelectricbicyclesandmopedstohavepedalsalongwithanelectricmotor.ThisdrovedemandinChinatoover25millionunits.●InEurope,increasingdemandforpersonalmobilityandtheavailabilityofpurchaseincentivesdroveelectrictwo-wheelersalesup15%in2020,to85,000vehicles.Electrictwo-wheelersalesEVshareoftwo-wheelersalesinkeymarkets202122242527051015202530201520162017201820192020MillionChinaVietnamIndiaTaiwanEuropeOther0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%201520162017201820192020ChinaGlobalSouthKoreaVietnamTaiwanEuropeIndiaZero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)marketoverview18Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF.Note:chartemissionsincludespassengervehicles,commercialvehicles,busesandtwo-andthree-wheeleremissionsavoidedfromtailpipeandthensubtractingpowersectoremissions.2021isestimatedamountbasedonchangestotheEVandFCVfleetthroughtheendof2021.EVsandFCVsareavoiding72millionmetrictonsofemissionsperyearAgrowingglobalEVandFCVfleetisalreadyhelpingtoavoidcarbondioxideemissions.Electricvehicleswillbeeliminatingabout127MtCO2peryearofglobalroadtransportemissionsbytheendof2021.Thisisa‘net’figure,whichaccountsforthesmallincreaseinpower-sectoremissionsresultingfromhigherelectricitydemand.ItwillriseasmoreZEVsrollout.Avoidedemissionsattheendof2021willbeupabout16%from2019.Attheendof2019,netemissionsavoidedsatatjustbelow110MtCO2,andhavebeenincreasingastheEVandFCVfleetgrows.Thegrowthwouldhavebeenfasterifthepandemichadnotalteredmileagebaselines.Still,thereisalongwaytogo–theavoidedemissionsestimatedfor2021areonlyasmallportionofallroadtransportemissions.Thenetavoidedemissionsrepresentabout2.1%ofalltheroadtransportemissionsweexpectfor2021.AvoidednetannualemissionsfromroadtransportfromEVsandFCVs0.000.050.100.152015201620172018201920202021eGtCO2Zero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)marketoverview19Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEFNote:qualifyingautomakersmusthavesoldaminimumof250,000vehiclesthatyearandhavetransparentfinancialinformation.In2015-2018,onlyBEVsandPHEVswerescoredasapartofindustryscoring.FCVswereaddedin2019-2020.Forfullcriteria,seeAutomakerEVExposureScoresreport.Leadingautomakersare45%morecommittedtoEVsthantheywerein2019BNEFautomakerEVexposures:industry-widescoreBNEF’sautomakerEVexposurescoresprovideaquantitativemeasureofautomakers’exposuretothepassengerEVandFCVmarket.Thescoringassessesautomakersonthreefactors:1)EVsales,2)EVrevenueand3)EVmodelcount.Thevolume-weighted,industry-widescorehasincreased45%since2019.Thiscanbeunderstoodasrisingexposure,andcommitment,totheEVmarket.Still,theindustry-wideaveragescoreisonly4.25in2020.Intheory,anautomakercouldachieveascoreof100ifalltheirsalesandrevenuescamefromEVs.TotalEVrevenuesforoursampleofautomakershasincreased37%in2020,comparedto2019.●EVrevenuesforqualifyingautomakersjumpedfrom$81billionin2019to$111billionin2020.0.582.332.934.250246201520162017201820192020Volume-weightedsegmentscoresZero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)marketoverview20Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021ProgresssinceCOP256577110109143244050100150200250300201620172018201920202021e$billionAMERAPACEMEA1H2021(total$110billion)Estimated2H2021Source:BloombergNEF.Note:includespassengerandcommercialvehicles,buses,publicandhomechargingandhydrogenrefueling.BEVs,PHEVs,FCVs.Cleantransportinvestmentwillexceed$240billionin2021Globalinvestmentintocleanroadvehiclesandinfrastructure–includingBEVs,PHEVsandFCVs–hashitover$600billioncumulativelyfrom2016throughthefirsthalfof2021.BNEFtracksinvestmentsacrossanarrayofsubsectors,includingcleanpassengervehicles,commercialvehicles,busesandhomeandpubliccharginginfrastructure.Thisfigureincludesfinalpurchasesofvehiclesandinvestmentininfrastructure,butnotinvestmentintomanufacturingplantorothersupplychainsteps.SinceCOP25,theEMEAregionhasseenthemostEVandFCVinvestment,at$120billioninthatperiod.TheAPACandAMERregionshaveseenthesecondandthirdmostat$95billionand$38billion,respectively.Globalcleanroadtransportinvestmentinthefirsthalfof2021wasalmostequaltothefull-yeartotalin2019.Weexpectthefinaltotalfor2021toexceed$240billion,morethandoublethe2019total.Passengervehicleinvestmentsfaroutweightheothersegments.PassengerEVsandFCVsaccountedfor88%oftotalexpendituresin1H2021.GlobalinvestmentintocleanroadtransportvehiclesandinfrastructureZero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)marketoverview21Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021MarketdriversPolicy,technologyandinfrastructure22Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF.Policieshaveevolvedfromsubsidiestomarket-basedmechanismsKick-startingthemarket(subsidies)GettingtoscaleLoweringbarriers●Manufacturingsubsidies●Directpurchasesubsidies●Taxcredits●Companycarallowances●Charginginfrastructurefunding/publicprocurement●Chargingstandards●Fueleconomy/emissionsregulations●EVquotas●Cityrestrictionsonpollutingvehicles●InternalcombustionenginebansEffective,butexpensiveInexpensive,competitive,scalableDirectpurchaseincentives,whichlowertheupfrontcostofanEV,areaneffectivetoolinincentivizingEVadoption,butareexpensiveforgovernmentstosupportinthelongterm.Chinahashadsomeofthemostgeneroussubsidiesinplacesince2010,buthasbeenreducingthemannually,andthesearenowsettoexpireby2022.Supplysidepolicies–likefleet-widefueleconomytargets–aregaininginimportance.●EuropeandChinahavesomeofthemoststringentfueleconomytargetsinplaceglobally,whichautomakersmustmeet.Meetingthemimpliessignificantlyincreasingsalesofelectricvehicles.●AutomakersactiveinthesetworegionsarethusstronglyinducedtolaunchnewEVmodels,andmakethemattractivetoconsumers.Marketdrivers23Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021HistoricalandtargetaveragevehicleCO2emissionsinEuropeRequiredEVadoptiontomeetnewEUCO2emissiontargetsEUfueleconomytargetsaredrivingrecordEVadoptionintheregionSource:BloombergNEF,EuropeanCommission.Note:Targetsin2020calledforanaveragevehicleCO2emissionsreductionto95gCO2/km.The2025targetcallsforCO2emissionstobe15%lowerthanin2021;theEVsharedependsontheBEV-PHEVmix.Europe’sfueleconomytargetsforpassengervehiclesbecamemorestringentin2020.Regulationsnowrequirea37.5%reductionofCO2emissionsby2030,from2021levels.Accordingtoouranalysis,thiswouldrequireEVadoptiontoreacharound42%ofpassengervehiclesales.TheEuropeanCommissionproposestotightenthesetargetsfurther.Underitsproposals,therequiredCO2reductionfrom2021-2030wouldrisefrom37.5%to55%.Tocomply,atleast60%ofnewcarsaleswillhavetobeelectricin2030.ThisfigureassumesalloftheEVsareall-electricBEVs.ThefinalsharewilldependonthemixbetweenBEVsandplug-inhybrids,andcanexceed80%ofsalesifautomakersweretoonlyusePHEVsforcompliance.TheEuropeanCommissionalsoproposestophaseoutsalesofICEvehiclesby2035.ThisisdiscussedintheGovernmentcommitmentssectionbelow.02040608010012014020212023202520272029gCO2/kmEmissionsofnewsaleswith2020technologysplitTarget0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20252030ShareoftotalsalesBEVonlyPHEVonlyMarketdrivers24Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021ProgresssinceCOP250%10%20%30%40%50%1234123412341234123412201620172018201920202021EVshareofsalesGeely(Volvo)BMWDaimlerHyundai-KiaVWGroupRenault-NissanStellantisFordHondaToyotaSource:BloombergNEF.Note:IncludesBEV,PHEVandFCVs.Severalautomakersareat~20%EVsalesandabove,inEuropeAutomakers’EVsalesshareinEuropeElectricvehiclesarenowamajorcomponentofautomakers’salesportfoliosinEurope.FormostautomakersinEurope,thelast3-4quartersofsalesfigureshaveseenEVsjumptonewhighs.In2019,EVscontributedjust3.4%tomajorautomakers’salesinEurope.Thishasleapttoanaverageof14%in1H2021.Premiumbrands,suchasVolvo,BMWandDaimlerhavethehighestshareofEVsintheirtotalsalesamongautomakerswithEuropeanoperations,butsome70%oftheircombinedEVsalesarestillPHEVs.ThesecompaniesachievedthehighestEVsalessharesin1H2021:●Geely(Volvo):39%●BMW:20%●Daimler:20%●Hyundai-Kia:17%Marketdrivers25Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,20210%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%20192020202120222023BatteryelectricPlug-inhybridBNEFforecastHistoricEVRequiredproportionofNEVcreditstocoverICEpassengercarproductionandimportsEstimatedshareofEVsalesneededtomeetCAFCcredittargetsChinapromotesEVsthroughacreditmechanismandfueleconomytargetsSource:BloombergNEF,MinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnology.Note:EVssoldcangeneratemorethanoneNEVcredit,sotheEVadoptionrateislowerthantheNEVcredittarget.RequiredsalestomeetCAFCtargets(visualizedbytheblueshadedarea)variesdependingonthemixofBEVandPHEVssold.10%12%14%16%18%20192020202120222023Since2019,ChinahasbeenpromotingdomesticEVsalesthroughtheNewEnergyVehicle(NEV)creditandCorporateAverageFuelConsumption(CAFC)creditsystems.UndertheNEVcreditsystem,automakersarerequiredtogeneratecreditsfromtheproductionofbatteryelectric,plug-inhybridandfuelcellvehicles.TomeetNEVrequirements,EVswillhavetobe6-11%ofpassengervehiclesalesin2023,dependingonthemixofBEVsandPHEVs.Thisisdifferentthan(butderivedfrom)the18%shareofcreditsrequired(chart).China’sCAFCtargetstightentowardsafleet-widetargetoffourlitresper100kilometersby2025.Weestimatethat13%ofvehiclesaleswillneedtobeelectricin2021and17%in2023inordertocomplywiththefueleconomytargetsinChina.Thesetargetsarehigherthanourcurrentforecast.Marketdrivers26Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021EstimatedfueleconomytargetsforpassengercarsandtrucksundernewproposedBidenruleRequiredEVshareofsalestomeetU.S.fueleconomystandardsU.S.transportdecarbonizationpolicyisincatch-upmodeIntheU.S.,thecurrentSaferAffordableFuel-Efficient(SAFE)rule,introducedunderPresidentTrump,doesverylittletoincentivizeEVadoptioninthecountry.WeestimatethatinordertocomplywiththeSAFErule,onlyaround5%ofannualpassengervehiclesalesinthecountrywillhavetobeelectricthroughoutthecomplianceperiod.TheBidenadministrationhasproposedanewruleforfueleconomystandardsformodelyears(MY)2024-2026BNEFprojectstheEVshareofpassengervehiclesalesneededtohitthenewBidenCAFEtargetwouldbe9%in2024and24%in2026.ThenewruleisonlyslightlylessstringentthantheObama-eratargetsinthelastcomplianceyear,2026.0102030405060702020202220242026mpgTargetfueleconomyEstimatedfueleconomyCarsTrucks0%5%10%15%20%25%30%202220242026EVshareofsalesObama-eratargetsTrump-eraSAFEruleBidenproposedruleSource:BloombergNEF,EPA,NHTSA.Note:passengercarsincludedomesticandimportedcars.ProjectedNHTSAimprovementsundertheproposedBidenrule.Estimatedfueleconomyassuming2019vehiclesalesmix.Marketdrivers27Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF.AutomakersarerespondingbylaunchingmanymorenewEVmodelsThenumberofEVandFCVmodelsavailablearoundtheworldhasincreased37%since2019.Whileattheendof2019therewere264batteryelectric,109plug-inhybridand7fuelcellvehiclesmodelsavailableglobally,bytheendof1H2021thishasalreadyrisento362,151and9,respectively.Chinaisleadingintermsofmodelavailability.Bytheendof2020therewere355EVandFCVmodelsavailableinChina,comparedto230inEuropeandjust83intheU.S.AlackofEVmodelstochosefrom,combinedwithweakfueleconomystandards,areamongthereasonsfortheU.S.laggingChinaandEuropeinZEVdeployment.EVandFCVmodelsavailablegloballyProgresssinceCOP250100200300400500123412341234123412341234201520162017201820192020FuellcellPlug-inhybridBatteryelectricMarketdrivers28Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021NewBEVscanchargefasterthanever…Maximumfast-chargecapabilityofBEVmodels,byyearoflaunchSource:BloombergNEF,Companypressreleases.TodaythevastmajorityofBEVsavailableinthemarketincludefast-chargingcapabilitiesinadditiontotheon-boardcharger.Thisfeaturereduceschargingtimes,increasingconvenienceandhelpingtoencourageadoption.Historically,thedominantchargingpoweravailableinthemarketwas50kW,withafewluxurybrandsofferingratesover100kW.Whiletheaveragemax-chargingpowerofaBEVlaunchedin2019was115kW,thishasincreasedto140kWformodelslaunchedin2021.TheshareofBEVswithratesbetween100to250kWinallBEVsintroducedin2021increasedto53%,from38%formodelslaunchedin2019.Somehigh-endBEVmodelsgofurther,allowingforchargingpowersofupto350kW.Lately,moreautomakershaveannouncedimplementationof800Varchitecturestoachieve350kWinfuturemodels.Thesuccessoffast-chargingtechnologywillrequireadditionaleffortstoimproveandexpandfast-charginginfrastructurenetworks.050100150200250300350400200920112013201520172019202120232025VehiclelaunchyearkW$10-20k$20-40k$40-80k$80k+Xpeng7PorcheTaycanJaguarI-PaceF-150LightningMaseratiLucidAirAudie-TronGTTeslaRoadsterTeslaModelSTeslaModelXNissanLeafRenaultZoeCadillacLyricMercedesEQBID.4KiaSoulEVChevroletBoltTeslaModel3VWe-GolfRivianHummerGMTeslaCybertruckTeslaModelYDaciaSpringMarketdrivers29Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF,EPA,Insideevs,EVCompare,Marklines,Automaker'swebsites.Note:InouranalysisweusedEPAelectricrangewhichisthetestingcycleusedintheU.S.formodelswithoutaverifiedEPArange,avaluewasestimatedbyconvertingfromtheWLTPorNEDCmeasurement.Regionscorrespondtoautomakerheadquarters.…AnddriveforlongerdistancesTheaveragerangeofnewlylaunchedBEVmodelshassteadilyrisenoverseveralyears,reaching400kmin2021.Automakershavebeenprogressivelyextendingtherangecapabilityoftheirofferings.Inthelastthreeyears,BEVrangeincreasedatacompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)of18%.Modelsannouncedfor2022arealreadyhittinganimpressive480kmaverageandweexpectthesenumberstorisefurtherinthefuture.Thereisavarianceacrossregions,withtheU.S.automakersofferingthehighestmileages.BEVsinEuropehaveremainedstablewiththebulkofthemodelsinmid-levelranges,from100to500km.Thelowest-rangemodelsarecommonintheChinesemarket.However,eventheresomeupcomingmodelswillachieveupto500km.RangeoflaunchedandupcomingBEVmodels,bylaunchyear01002003004005006007008009001000200820102012201420162018202020222024EPArangeinkilometersLegend:HQinAsiaHQinU.S.HQinEuropeLaunchedUpcomingAllvehiclesrangesexponentialtrendlineModelYearMarketdrivers30Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF,ICCT.Note:forEuropeancountriesweassumethattherawmaterialsandthebatterycellsaremanufacturedinGermanyandthepackinthecountrywherethevehicleisused;fortheU.S.andChinathematerials,cellsandpackaremanufactureddomestically;thebatterysizeofmediumBEVis71kWh.BEVsdohavelowerlifecycleemissionsthaninternalcombustionenginevehiclesThelifecycleCO2emissionsofbatteryelectriccarsproducedin2020werealreadylowerthanthoseofcombustioncars.LifecycleCO2emissionsofbatterycarsproducedin2020andusedfor250,000kmintheU.K.,Germany,theU.S.andChinawererespectively76%,49%,60%and18%lowerthanthoseofICEvehicles.ThegrowthofrenewableenergyinthepowersystemmeansthatmanufacturingemissionswilldroprapidlyforbothICEsandBEVsbetween2020and2030.Moreimportantly,cleanerelectricitymeanscleaner-runningBEVs.ThismeansthattheemissionsadvantageofBEVsagainstICEswillonlyexpand.By2030,lifecycleCO2emissionsofBEVswillbe86%,70%,69%and37%lowerintheU.K.,Germany,theU.S.andChinathanforcomparableICEs.BEVandICEvehiclelifetimeCO2emissions,2020BEVandICEvehiclelifetimeCO2emissions,20300102030405060BEVICEBEVICEBEVICEBEVICEU.K.GermanyU.S.ChinaTonsCO2VehiclemanufacturingBatterymanufacturingUse0102030405060BEVICEBEVICEBEVICEBEVICEU.K.GermanyU.S.ChinaTonsCO2VehiclemanufacturingBatterymanufacturingUseMarketdrivers31Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF.Lithium-ionbatterypackpriceContinuedbatterycostreductionsareagoodsignforthefutureofEVsThepriceoflarge-formatlithium-ionbatteriesusedinEVshasfallendramaticallyoverthelastdecade.Thevolume-weightedaveragebatterypackpriceinBNEF’sannualsurveyhasdecreased89%since2010,from$1,191perkWhto$137perkWhin2020.Batterypricesarefallingforanumberofreasons,includinggrowingglobalmanufacturingcapacity,growingordersizesfromleadingmanufacturers,increasingenergydensityandintroductionofnewcellandpackdesigns.Whileshort-termcommoditypricefluctuationsmayslowthisdeclineinthecomingyear,thelong-termtrendoffallingbatterycostswillcontinuetoimprovetheeconomicsofelectricvehicles.1,19192472666859238429522118115713720102011201220132014201520162017201820192020Batterypackprice(real2020$/kWh)89%Marketdrivers32Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF.Note:2021includesfacilitiescommissioneduptoMay2021.2025Otherincludescapacityoutsideofthecountriesindicated.Basedoncurrentannouncements.Valueshavebeenrounded.Lithium-ioncellmanufacturingcapacitybyplantlocationBatterymanufacturingcapacityhasincreased84%since2019BatterymanufacturingcapacityisgrowingsteadilytomeetdemandfromtheEVmarket.Thereiscurrently586GWh/yearofcommissionedlithium-ionbattery-manufacturingcapacityglobally.Thisisnearlytwicethecapacitythatexistedjusttwoyearsago.AlthoughChinastilldominatesglobally,injusttwoyears,Europehastripleditsbatteryproductioncapacity.By2025,totalcapacitywillalmosttripleto2,539GWh/year.Chinawillcontinuetobethelargestlithium-ionbatterymanufactureroverthistimehorizon,butnewcellmanufacturingisalsoplannedclosertodemandcentersintheU.S.andEurope.Europe’sshareofcapacityisprojectedtogrowfromjust6%todayto18%by20253195405862,53905001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002019202020212025GWhOtherJapanSouthKoreaU.S.EuropeChinaMarketdrivers33Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF.Lithium-ionbatterypackpriceoutlookWithincreasedscaleandimprovingtech,batterypriceswillcontinuetofallLithium-ionbatterycostswillcontinuetofall.Basedonanobservedlearningrateof18%,lithium-ionbatterypackpricescouldfallbelow$100/kWhin2024andreach$58/kWhin2030.Theannualrateofpricedeclinesisslowing.Thisisconsistentwiththeconceptofalearningrate,whichlinkstherateofpricedeclinestothecumulativevolumeofbatterypacksdeployedonthemarket.Wehaveobservedan18%learningrate(costreductionforeverydoublingofbatterycapacity),andusethistoprojectforward.By2035,lithium-ionbatterypackscouldachieveavolume-weightedaveragepriceof$45/kWh.However,thiswillrequirematerialsubstitutionandfurthertechnologyadvancements.020040060080010001200201020152020202520302035Lithium-ionbatterypackprice(real2020$/kWh)Observedprices18%learningrateMarketdrivers34Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021BEVswillsoonbecost-competitivetomakeandbuy,onanunsubsidizedbasisSource:BloombergNEF.Note:Includesdirectmanufacturingcostandadditionalcost.Taxnotincluded.Mightvarybycountrydependingonlocalpolicy.FallingbatterypriceswillsoonstarttobringtheupfrontcostofBEVstoparitywithequivalentICEs.Abatterypriceof$100/kWhisthepointatwhichweexpectEVswillstarttoreachpriceparitywithinternalcombustionenginevehiclesonanupfrontcostbasis.(EVscanalreadycompetewithICEsontotalcostofownershipinmanycases.)Theexactcrossoverpointdependsontheregionofsaleandvehiclesegment.Forexample,medium-sizedBEVsarecompetitiveinChinaandEuropeassoonas2023,whilesmallBEVsarenotcompetitiveuntil2026and2027inthosesameregionsrespectively.Forallvehicleclasses,weexpectthatBEVscanbecost-competitivewithICEsbeforetheendofthedecade.Somevehiclesegments,insomecountries,canreachpriceparityverysoon.WeestimateSUVsintheU.S.canreachpriceparityassoonas2023,whileinEuropethiswon’thappenuntil2024.Incontrast,Europewillseelargecarsreachparityin2023.YearofexpectedupfrontpriceparityforBEVsvs.ICEs20202021202220232024202520262027202820292030U.S.EuropeJapanChinaSouthKoreaSmallMediumLargeSUVMarketdrivers35Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021ProgresssinceCOP25ProgresssinceCOP25CumulativehomechargerinstallationsCumulativepublicchargerinstallationsBNEFestimatesthattherewillbe5.4millionhomeEVchargersand1.9millionpublicchargersinstalledcumulativelybytheendof2021.Therehavebeenover2millionhomeand600,000publicchargerinstallationssincetheendof2019.HomechargerinstallationsmakeupahighershareoftotalinstallationsinEuropeandtheU.S.comparedtoChina,wherethereisanear-evensplitbetweenhomeandpublicchargers.MoreworkisrequiredonchargingdeploymentincountriesoutsideofChina,EuropeandtheU.S.Theroll-outofcharginginfrastructureintherestofworldandemergingeconomieshasbeenslow,butslowuptakeofEVshasbeenafactor.AsEVadoptioninthosecountriesincreaseswithimprovingBEVeconomics,chargingwillfollow.7millionEVchargerswillhavebeeninstalledbytheendof2021Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Homechargerinstallationsareestimated.Excludesworkplaceandcommercialvehiclecharginginstallations0.40.60.91.31.90.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.520172018201920202021eMillionconnectorsChinaEuropeU.S.JapanOtherEstimated0.61.21.93.35.40.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.520172018201920202021eMillionconnectorsMarketdrivers36Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021ProgresssinceCOP25ProgresssinceCOP25AnnualhomechargerinstallationsAnnualpublicchargerinstallationsHomechargerinstallationsrateswillbealmostthreetimeshigherthisyearthanin2019.AroundfourtimesmorehomechargersarebeinginstalledannuallythanpublicchargersasmanyEVdriversinEuropeandtheU.S.havetheabilitytoinstallachargepointathome.TheshareofdriversinstallingahomechargerinEuropeandtheU.S.isexpectedtodecreaseoverthenextdecade,asmoredriverswithoutthisfacilityadoptanEV.Publicchargerinstallationsin2021willbeabout60%higherthanin2019.Theannualrateofpublicinstallationsisincreasingfromaround0.3millionin2019to0.5millionin2021.Chinainstalled65%ofallpublicchargersgloballybetweenJanuary2020andJune2021.Thecountryisexpectedtoinstallaround370,000publicchargersin2021,comparedto100,000inEuropeand35,000intheU.S.~4timesmorehomechargersarebeinginstalledannuallythanpublicchargersSource:BloombergNEF.Note:Homechargerinstallationsareestimated.0.10.20.30.40.50.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.220172018201920202021eMillionconnectors0.30.60.81.42.10.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.220172018201920202021eMillionconnectorsChinaEuropeU.S.JapanOtherEstimatedMarketdrivers37Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021ProgresssinceCOP25ProgresssinceCOP25AnnualhomechargerinvestmentAnnualpublicchargerinvestmentButinvestmentinpublicchargersoutweighshomechargingSource:BloombergNEF.Note:Investmentincludeshardwareandlocalinstallationcosts.Investmentnumbersareestimated.Totalannualinvestmentincharginginfrastructureisexpectedtoincreasetoover$8billionin2021,upfrom$4.6billionin2019Publiccharginginfrastructureaccountsforahigherproportionofinvestment,eventhoughtherearefewerchargers.Thisisbecauseofthehigherunitcostofequipmentandinstallation.Publiccharginginfrastructurecan,however,becheaperperelectricvehicleserved,onceutilizationincreases.Thesechargepointscanserveanywherefromfivetoover100vehicles’energyneedsinayear,comparedto1-2vehiclesforahomecharger1.51.93.43.64.90.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.020172018201920202021eBillion,$0.61.01.22.33.20.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.020172018201920202021eBillion,$ChinaEuropeU.S.JapanOtherEstimatedMarketdrivers38Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021ProgresssinceCOP25ProgresssinceCOP25Fastchargersmakeup20-40%ofannualpublicchargerinstallations,butover75%ofannualinvestmentApublicfastchargercancostbetween$30,000and$180,000tobuyandinstall,comparedtoaround$1,000forahomecharger.Theycanservemanymorevehiclesandgiveconsumersconfidencetocompletejourneysquickly.Ultra-fastchargers(>100kW)aretakingahighershareofannualpublicinstallations.Thesemadeup4%ofannualinstallationsin2017,14%in2019and27%in1H2021.Installationsareoccurringinurbanlocations,suchasatsupermarkets,aswellasonhighways.ThisinfrastructurewillsupportEVdriverswhodonothavetheabilitytochargeathome.AnnualpublicchargerinstallationsbypowertypeAnnualpublicchargerinvestmentbypowertypeFastchargersaccountforover75%ofpubliccharginginvestmentSource:BloombergNEF0.120.150.320.440.530.00.10.20.30.40.50.620172018201920202021eMillionconnectorsAC(3-43kW)Fast(43-100kW)Ultra-fast(>100kW)Estimated1.51.93.43.64.90.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.020172018201920202021e$,billionsMarketdrivers39Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021LocationTarget100,000publicchargersbytheendof2021Over1millionchargerstargetedbynineprovincesbetween2021and20251millionpublicchargersby2025500,000publicchargersby2025150,000publicchargersby2030500,000publicconnectorsby20301millionpublicchargersby2030Chargingdeploymenttargetsforselectedcountries/regionsGovernmentshavehighambitionsforcharginginfrastructureroll-outsSource:BloombergNEF,governmentannouncements.Note:theinformationisnotexhaustiveandtherewillbemoretargetsglobally.Majoreconomieshavetargetstodeployover3millionchargersgloballybetween2021and2030.●Deploymentdatesdifferandthesefigurescanbeforeitherprivateorpublicinfrastructureroll-outs●RegionalandlocalgovernmentsarealsosettingtargetstodeployinfrastructureDeploymenttargetsshouldavoidencouraginglow-qualityorexcessiveinfrastructureroll-outs.Insomecountries,therehavebeenreportsofchargersbeinginstalledcheaplyandinthewronglocations,contributingtolowutilization.Thetotalnumberofchargersrequireddiffersdependingonthepowerofchargersinstalledandthemake-upofthefleet.TheEuropeanUnionhasproposedspecificmeasuresforpublicchargerstocounteractsuchissues:●Distance-basedtarget:Astationevery60kilometersonmajorroads●Fleet-basedtarget:1kWofchargingpowerperbattery-electricvehicleand0.66kWperplug-inhybridelectricvehicleinthefleetMarketdrivers40Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Selectedcompanies’charginginfrastructuredeploymenttargetsAvarietyofcompaniesaretargetingthecharginginfrastructureopportunitySource:BloombergNEF,companypressreleases.CompanyTarget70,000publicchargersgloballyby2030500,000chargersgloballyby2025150,000chargersby2025650,000privateandpublicchargersby202275,000inEuropeby2022Manycompanieshavesetlong-termchargerdeploymentgoals.●Thisincludesutilities,oilandgascompaniesandautomakers●ThereismorefocusinEuropethanotherregionsaroundtheworldonsettingthesetargetsNinechargingcompanieshavegonepublic,orannouncedtheintenttogopublic,since2019.●Thisincludescompaniesthatmanufacturehardware,operatepublicchargingnetworksandprovidesoftwareTherehavebeenalargenumberofinvestmentsintoandacquisitionsofsmallerchargingcompaniesinrecentyears.BNEFhastrackedover14acquisitionsinthisspacesincethebeginningof2020,withoilandgasmajorsandutilitiesthemostactiveacquirers.Marketdrivers41Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021CorporatecommitmentsAmbition,targetsandinvestments42Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF,variousautomakers.Note:EVsalesestimatescomefromcorporatestatementsandestimatesfromtheBNEFEVdatahub.TeslasalesandtargetsareinpatternedpurpletodifferentiatefromvehiclemakersthatsellICEmodels.Automakersarenowtargetingmorethan40millionEVsalesperyearby2030ManyautomakershaveannouncednewEVsalestargetssinceCOP25,highlightingtheirgrowingcommitmenttoelectrification.16automakershavesetgoalsthatcouldresultin19millionEVsalesin2025.Thisisanincreaseof44%percentsinceJanuary2020,when11automakershadpledgedaround14millionEVs.Asfor2030,10automakershavepledgedtoachieveover40millioninaggregateEVsales.ThisincludesTesla’stargetofselling20millionBEVsin2030.Thisrepresentsamajorincreasesinceearly2020,whenonlytwoautomakers(HondaandSubaru)had2030pledges,forunder2millionEVs.Mostoftheincreaseshavecomefromnewautomakerssettingtargets,ratherthanautomakersrevisingtheirgoals.However,manyofthesetargetsarebasedonthecatch-allcategoryof‘electricvehicles’,leavingambiguityontheroleofhybriddrivetrains.2020actualand2025/2030targetEVsalesbyselectedautomakers0510152025303540452020EVsales2025EVtargets2030EVtargetsMillionTeslasalesandtargetAsofAugust2021AsofJanuary2020Corporatecommitments43Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:companypressreleases,BloombergNEF.Note:calculatedasequalannualinvestmentovercompanies’statedinvestmentperiods,dividedby2020R&Dandcapex;investmentplansareforfiveyears,otherthanDaimler’sandToyota’swhicharefortenyears;Toyota’splansreflectinvestmentsonbatterydevelopmentandproductiononly;see“AutomakersAreInvestinginEVsLikeTheyMeanIt”(webterminal).Majormanufacturers’investmentplansmatchtheirgrowingEVambitionsInvestmentinresearch,development,equipmentandplantsforvehicleelectrificationistheclearestevidenceoftheautomotiveindustry’srisingcommitmenttotheEVtransition.Fundsdeployedtodevelopnewelectricvehiclesaretheproofofconcreteactiontosupportlong-termdecarbonizationgoals.Inparticular,buildingEVmanufacturingplantsandsettingupsupplychainsrequiresignificantcapital,anddemonstraterealcommitmenttoproduceandsellelectricvehiclesatlargevolumes.Someofthelargestautomakersplantocommitmostoftheirdevelopmenteffortsandcapitalspendingtowardselectrificationinthenextfiveyears.Companieshavealreadydeployedpartsofthosebudgetsandhavebegunbringingmanufacturingcapacityonline.Assemblyandparts-productionplants(includingforbatteries)arenowoperatinginEurope,NorthAmerica,ChinaandSouthKorea.Theautomakersinthechartsold32millionvehiclesin2020,representingabout44%of2020globalsales(StellantissalesviaFCAandPSA).Manyothermanufacturers,suchasVolvo,Renault,Nissan,SAICandBAICalsohaveambitiouselectrificationplansandalreadyEVsatscale.58%52%51%47%33%6%VolkswagenStellantisGeneralMotorsFordDaimlerToyota%oftotalR&DandcapexSelectedautomakers’R&DandcapexcommitmentsforEVsanddigitaltechCorporatecommitments44Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF,Marklines,variousautomakers.Note:Shareof2020passengervehiclesales.AnnouncementsmadethroughSeptember2021.ShareofpassengervehiclessoldbyautomakerswithanICEphase-outannouncement2021hasseenasteadydrumbeatofautomakersannouncingtheirintentiontoendsalesofvehicleswithaninternalcombustionengine(ICE).12automakershaveannouncedglobal,regionalorsubsidiaryICEphase-outtargets.Thedatesofthesephase-outtargetsrangefrom2030to2040,dependingontheautomaker.Audi,Fiat,Volvoandothershavechosen2030,whileGMhasaspiredtoendICEsalesin2035andMercedes-Benzby2039.Hondahasthelatesttargetyearof2040.OtherautomakerslikeFord,HyundaiandVolkswagenhaveannouncedregionalICEphase-outsforEuropespecifically.Asashareofglobalpassengervehiclesales,theseautomakersrepresentedjustunder27%ofall2020sales.Twoyearsago,noneoftheseautomakershadformallymadeanannouncementaroundanICEphase-outpledge.However,around73%oftheglobalpassengervehiclemarketremainsunaccountedfor.Automakers’ICEphase-outcommitmentsnowrepresent27%oftheglobalmarketICEphase-outcommitments100%100%73.0%9%5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%201920202021JaguarMini+Rolls-RoyceVolvoHyundai(Europe)FiatFord(Europe)Mercedes-BenzHondaVolkswagen(Europe)+AudiGeneralMotorsNotcommittedCorporatecommitments45Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF,variousautomakers.Note:Basedon2020salesshares.Net-zerodatacomesfromBNEF’sCorporateNet-ZeroAssessmentTool.Manufacturerscovering58%oftheautomarkethavesetsomeformofnet-zerotargetVehiclemanufacturershavejoinedtheglobalwaveofcompaniespledgingtogonet-zeroby2050.AccordingtoBNEFdata,12automakersofvarioussizeshavemadenet-zerocommitmentstargeting2050orbefore,asofSeptember2021.Thesecompaniessoldover42millionvehiclesin2020,representing58%oftheglobalpassengervehiclemarket.Thisfigureisupfromjust31%in2019.LargeautomakerslikeFord,Renault,Honda,GMandNissanallmadenet-zerocommitmentsinthelastyear-and-a-half.Collectively,thesenet-zerocommitmentsamounttoatotalof1.1GtCO2tobereducedglobally.Thisisbasedonourestimateofthebase-yearCO2emissionscoveredbythenet-zerotargetsoftheseautomakers.Notethatsomeofthemhaveonlycommittedtoscope1and2emissions,andevenifacompanycoversall3scopes,itcanexemptcertainemissiontypessuchascustomer’suseofavehicle.Ifthese12automakersupdatedtheirtargetstocoveralltheemissionsintheirbaseyear,thatwouldresultincloserto2.2GtCO2ofemissionstoreduce.Shareofglobalpassengervehiclesalesfromautomakerswithanet-zerotargetby20500%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2015201620172018201920202021Corporatecommitments46Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF,companypressreleases.Note:ZEViszeroemissionvehicle.TruckmakersarebeginningtolooktowardsaZEVfutureSelectedmanufacturers’targetsforzero-emissioncommercialvehiclesCompanyZEVR&DinvestmentZEVsales202520302040“Vastmajorityoftotal”by2025n/aUpto60%100%(by2039)n/an/a>35%“Absolutemajority”1.6bneuros,2021-2510%ScaniainEurope●50%(Scania)●60%(MANdeliverytrucks)●40%(MANlong-haultrucks)Thedecarbonizationofcommercialvehicleshasmadelessprogressthanthepassengercarsegment.Inthelasttwoyears,threemajortruckmakershavepresentedplansforzero-emissionmedium-andheavy-dutytrucks.Daimler,VolvoandTratontogetheraveraged1.1millionannualunitsalesacross2019-2020–roughly23%oftheglobalmedium-andheavy-dutytruckmarket.Manymanufacturersexpecttodeploybothbatteryelectricandfuelcelltruckstoreachdecarbonizationtargets.However,theTratongroupisrelyingonlyonbatterytechnology,asareseveralstartupmanufacturers.Theabilityoftruckmakerstoinvestinseveralcompetingtechnologiesmaybelimited.Corporatecommitments47Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021VehiclescoveredbytheEV100pledgeTop10EV100membersbyfleetsizeCorporatefleetoperatorshavejoinedtheracetoelectrifySource:BloombergNEF,TheClimateGroup.Note:BasedonClimateGroup’sFeb2021report.DataonprogresstowardstargetsisfromreportinginAug-Oct20202.24.8VehiclescommitmentMillion20192021CorporatesustainabilityinitiativesaredrivinguptakeofcommercialEVs.●ThenumberofvehiclescoveredbytheClimateGroup’sEV100fleetcommitment,wherememberspledgetoelectrifyalloftheirvehiclesgloballyby2030,hasincreased117%since2019.●ThenumberofEV100memberspledgingtoelectrifytheirfleetincreasedfrom53in2019to91in2021.ThesecommitmentswillunderpinastrongsourceofEVdemandinthisdecade.Sofar,EV100membershaveelectrifiedjust169,000vehiclestodate,orjust3.6%ofcommittedvehicles.25.826.028.937.041.750.568.6NovartisFlipkartBTGroupFleetAllianceEDFGroupSiemensDHLLloydsBankingLeaseplanLyftThousand2,0001,883323ElectrifiedTobeelectrifiedCorporatecommitments48Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021GovernmentcommitmentsNationalandregionalZEVambition49Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF.GovernmentsofalllevelsareimplementingICEphase-outtargetsNationalandregionaltargetstophaseoutinternalcombustionvehiclesalesThereare45governmentsintotaltargetingaphase-outofnewinternalcombustionvehicle(ICE)sales.Thisincludes18nationalgovernmentsand27regionalandmunicipalauthorities.Since2019,theyearofthelastCOP,thelisthasbeenexpandedbysixcountries(theU.K.,Canada,Austria,Singapore,ChileandGreece),threeU.S.states(California,MassachusettsandNewYork)andQuebecprovinceinCanada.NotreflectedinthisfigureistheproposalfromtheEuropeanCommissiontophaseoutsalesofICEvehiclesintheEUby2035.Thiswouldadd19morecountriestothecount.TheimportanceofregionalICEphase-outtargetsshouldnotbeunderestimated.Sub-nationaltargetscandriverealimpact,especiallyincountrieswherenationalmandatesareyettobeimplemented.Forexample,theU.S.currentlyhasnophase-outtargetnationally,butstate-levelICEphase-outtargetsalreadymakeupabout25%ofpassengercarsalesinthecountry.Thisisdiscussedbelow.5513172326272471214185717243540452015201620172018201920201H2021CumulativenumberNationalRegionalandmunicipalGovernmentcommitments50Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF.NationalandregionalICEvehiclephase-outtargetsNationalandregionalNationalRegionalonly2030Austria2030Denmark2030Iceland2030Ireland2030Netherlands2025Norway+2025Bergen,2030Oslo2030Slovenia2040France+2030Paris2040Spain+2030Barcelona2030Sweden2030U.K.+2025CityofLondon2050CostaRica2030Israel2035Canada2035Quebec2040BritishColumbia2030Heidelberg2035Brussels2030Quito(EC)2030LosAngeles2030Seattle2035California2035Massachusetts2035NewYork2045Hawaii2050Connecticut2050Maryland2050Oregon2050RhodeIsland2050SanAntonio2050Vermont2030Hainan2040HongKong2030Auckland2030JejuIsland2030CapeTown2040Singapore2035CapeVerde2035Chile2030Milan2030GreeceGovernmentcommitments51Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BNEF.Note:EVshareofsalesinthesechartsincludesPHEVs.Sizeofthebubblerepresentsthesizeoftheoverallpassengervehiclesmarketin2020;thecolorofabubblerepresentsvehiclesegmentsincludedinthetarget.()Singaporetargetisafleettarget,notsales,anditallowsforpurehybridvehicles(HEV).17countriesaretargetingcompletephase-outsofconventionalcarsNationaltargetstophaseoutinternalcombustionvehiclesalesThereare18national-leveltargetstophaseoutsalesofinternalcombustionvehicles(ICE).●ThelistisrichinEuropeancountries,butCanada,Singapore,CostaRicaandChilehavealsocommittedtophasingoutICEsales.●Afewsmallermarkets–Sweden,Netherlands,DenmarkandIceland–aretargeting2030asthephase-outdate,whichisearlierthanothers.Thesecountriesalreadyenjoyabove-averageEVadoptionrates.●TheU.K.hasrecentlymoveditstargetforwardto2030,althoughitwillallowsalesofPHEVsuntil2035.●Canadahasrecentlysetaphase-outgoalfor2035,butthiswillrequireconcertedaction.Only4%ofpassengervehiclessoldinthecountryin2020wereelectric.01234561PassengercarsonlyPassengercarsandLCVPassengercarsandbusesPassengercars,commercialvehiclesandbusesSloveniaIsraelIrelandSingaporeCostaRicaAustriaChileGreece0%5%10%15%20%20202030204020502060EVshareofsales(2020)ICEphaseouttargetyearU.K.FranceSpainCanada0%5%10%15%20%20202030204020502060EVshareofsales(2020)ICEphaseouttargetyearNorwaySwedenNetherlandsDenmarkIceland0%20%40%60%80%100%20202030204020502060EVshareofsales(2020)ICEphaseouttargetyearGovernmentcommitments52Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021ProgresssinceCOP25Source:BloombergNEF,Marklines,BloombergIntelligence.Note:shareof2020globalpassengervehiclesalesbyannouncementyearofICEsalesphase-out.EuropeanUnionannouncementisstilltentativeascountriesworktofinalize2035CO2emissionregulation.Countrieswithphase-outtargetsaccountfor19%ofthepassengervehiclemarket19%of2020passengervehiclessaleswereincountriesthatnowhaveaninternalcombustionengine(ICE)phase-outdate.Morecountriesorregionsareannouncingphase-outseachyear,withamarkedaccelerationsince2019.Thoughsomeofthesetargetslacklegislativebacking,theyarestillameaningfulcommitmenttowardszero-emissionsroadtransport.TheabovefigureincludestheproposedEUwidetargetfor2035.Withoutthis,only10%oftheglobalcarmarketiscoveredbyphase-outs.ThefirstcountrywithanationalICEphase-outpolicywasNorwayin2016.Thatyear,lessthan1%ofglobalpassengervehiclesaleswerecoveredbythesepolicies.By2019,5%ofglobalpassengervehiclessalesoccurredincountrieswithanICEphase-out.ThisincludedmarketslikeCanada,France,Spainandothers.Overthepasttwoyears,nearly14%oftheglobalpassengervehiclemarkethasannouncednewICEphase-outtargets.ThelargestblocwastheEU,alongwiththeU.K.,ChileandSingapore.ShareofglobalsalescoveredbynationalandEUICEphase-outtargets0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%2015201620172018201920202021NationalandEUwideICEphase-outNationalICEphase-outGovernmentcommitments53Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF,NADA.AquarterofU.S.autosalesarenowunderastate-levelphase-outpolicyAround25%ofU.S.autosalesareinstatesthathavesomeformofICEphase-outpolicyinplace.TheU.S.had13.7millionvehiclessoldin2020,soabout3.4millionvehiclesweresoldinmarketswithanICEphase-outpolicyinplace.California,NewYorkandMassachusettshaveexecutive-ledorlegislatedtargetsfor2035.Thesethreestatesrepresentedjustunder20%oftheU.S.automarketin2020.OtherstateslikeConnecticut,Maryland,Oregon,Vermontandothersmallermarketshavecurrentlysignedonfora2050target.Thesemarketsonlyrepresentabout5%ofthetotalU.S.passengercarmarket.ItispossiblethatthesestateswillfollowCalifornia’sleadandbringforwardtheirtargetintheyearsahead.PHEVsmayplayaroleinsomeofthesestateICEphase-outpolicies.WhetherornotPHEVswillbeincludedinanyICEphase-outpolicyremainstobeseen.CaliforniaisstillallowingPHEVsinnewerversionsofitscleancarpolicyasopposedtobanningthem.TheroleofPHEVsintheU.S.marketwillbeanongoingdevelopmentinthisdecade.ShareofU.S.autosalescoveredbystateswithandwithoutICEphase-outtargets11%6%9%8%5%4%24.5%75.5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%ICEphase-outNoICEphase-outMichiganOklahomaFloridaTexasVermontRhodeIslandHawaiiOregonConnecticutMarylandMassachusettsNewYorkCaliforniaGovernmentcommitments54Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021TheEU’sproposedICEphase-outcovers14%oftheglobalautomarketEuropeanpassengervehiclesales,2020TheEuropeanCommissionhasannouncedplansthatimplyapracticalphaseoutofnewICEvehiclesalesby2035.Theinitialdraftaimstohitafleetwideefficiencyof0gCO2perkmby2035,effectivelybanningPHEVs,aswellasconventionalvehicles.Collectively,theEUtogetherwithNorway,SwitzerlandandIceland,countriesthatalsohavesetICEphase-outtargets,had10.3millionpassengervehiclesalesin2020,14%oftheglobaltotal.ThemarketisledbyGermany,FranceandItaly.Thesethreecountriesaccountedforalmost60%ofallEUpassengervehiclessalesin2020.SomeEUcountriesaremakingearlystridestowardsthe2035target.Inthefirsthalfof2021,Swedenstoodoutwitha13%ZEVmarketshare,followedbyAustria(11.8%)andGermany(10.4%).Countriesunder10%ZEVshareofsalessaw3.6millionpassengervehiclesalesin2021.Italy,France,SpainandPolandarethebiggestEuropeancarmarketswhereZEVadoptionisstillbelowthe10%mark(asof1H2021).ComplyingwiththeproposedICEphase-outwillbechallengingforthosecountries.>1Million<50,000ZEVsshareofsalesrepresentmorethan10%300k–1million300k–100k100k–50,000Source:BloombergNEF.Note:ThemapincludesdataEU27countries,Norway,SwitzerlandandIceland.DatafromZEVshareofsalesisforthefirsthalfof2021;totalpassengervehiclesalesisfullyear2020.Governmentcommitments55Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF,variousgovernments.Note:uses2020passengervehiclesalesforcountrytoestimateimpactofinterimtargetsinthechart.TheU.S.2030targetisnon-binding,anditincludesPHEVs.TheEU2035targetisafullICEphase-out,whiletheU.S.andChinatargetsareinterimtargets.ThoughChinaandtheU.S.donothaveICEphase-outtargets,theydohaveinterimtargetsthatcouldplayavitalroleinacceleratingEVadoption.China’stargetispartofitsNEVprogram,andincludesthreedrivetraintypes–BEV,PHEVandFCV.Itsnewinterimgoalcallsfor40%NEVshareofsalesacrosspassengerandcommercialvehiclesandbusesby2030.Thiscouldamountto8millionpassengerEVsandFCVssoldby2030,8timeshigherthanin2020.Chinaalsohasa20%NEVtargetfor2025,whichcouldresultin4millionpassengerEVsandFCVs.TheU.S.hasaninterimtargetfor2030,setunderanexecutiveorderbyPresidentBiden,callingfor50%ofpassengervehiclesalestobeelectric.Reachingthetargetwouldrequire6.9millionEVsandFCVstobesoldintheU.S.in2030–asignificantjumpcomparedto2020.Bothinterimtargets,ifachieved,willhaveasignificantimpactonglobalpassengervehiclesales.IntermsofEVsalesvolumes,theyarebroadlyinlinewiththeEU’slonger-termfullphase-outtarget.U.S.andChinahavesubstantialEVtargets,despitenophase-outpolicyEstimatedEVandFCVsalesbasedoninterimpolicytargetsinChinaandtheU.S.,comparedtotheEUICEphase-out0246810122020EVandFCVsales2025targets2030targets2035targetsMillionU.S.EU+Norway,Switzerland,IcelandChinaGovernmentcommitments56Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF,variousgovernments.Note:uses2020passengervehiclesalesforcountrytoestimateimpactofinterimtargetsinthechart.TheU.S.2030targetisnon-binding,anditincludesPHEVs.China’stargetsisfornewenergyvehicles.India’stargetincludesPHEVs.ICEphase-outsvarybycountry/region.Nearly41%ofthepassengervehiclemarketisnowcoveredbysometypeofZEVtarget,eitheraninterimsalestargetorICEphase-out.Thisisupfromjust8%in2019.Asdiscussedabove,ICEphase-outsrepresentover19%oftheglobalcarmarket.Interim/partialtargets–includingChina,theU.S.andIndia–addanother21%.Combined,thesetargetscoveredabout29.8millionpassengervehiclesalesin2020.Thereremainsabout60%ofthemarketnotcoveredbyanytypeofZEVcommitment.LargeautomarketswithoutacurrentICEphase-outpolicyincludeSouthKorea,Japan,RussiaandBrazil–aswellasremainingportionsofthethreelargemarketswithinterimtargets(theU.S.,ChinaandIndia).Targetsarehelpful,butthereisstillalongwaytogo.2020EVshareofpassengervehiclesaleswasjustover2%intheU.S.andfarbelow1%inIndia.ChinaandEuropefaredbetterat6%and11%respectively.Combinednationaltargetsreach41%oftheglobalpassengervehiclemarketShareof2020passengervehiclemarketcoveredbyICEphase-outcommitmentsandinterim/partialtargets9%11%11%9%1%59%73millionpassengervehiclesales(2020)U.S.(2030target)China(2030target)ICEphase-out(inplace)EUproposed(restofEU)India(2030target)NotcommittedGovernmentcommitments57Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Source:BloombergNEF,variousgovernments.Note:uses2020passengervehiclesalesforcountrytoestimateimpactofinterimtargetsinthechart.TheU.S.2030targetisnon-binding,anditincludesPHEVs.China’stargetsisfornewenergyvehicles.India’stargetincludesPHEVs.ICEphase-outsvarybycountry/region.AccordingtoBNEFandotherprojections,itwillbenecessarytoendcombustion-vehiclesalesby2035iftheroadtransportsectoristoreachnetzeroby2050.Thisisbecauseofthelongservicelivesandslowturnoverratesofvehicles,meaningthatcarsandvansproducedin2036arelikelystilltobeoperatingbymid-century.Currently,nationalandEUtargetsfor2035cover41%oftheglobalautomarket.Thisfigure,whichincludestheEuropeanCommission’sproposed2035ICEphase-out,mustriseinordertobringtrajectoriesinlinewithnetzeroby2050.Assoonas2030,ZEVcommitmentsalreadytotal26%oftheautomarket.ThisisunderpinnedbyinterimtargetsinkeymarketssuchastheU.S.andChina.CountrieswithICEphase-outtargetsafter2035donotsignificantlyaddtothetotal.ThesecountriesincludesmallcarmarketssuchasSingaporeandCostaRicawithICEphase-outtargetssetat2040and2050,respectively,aswellasEuropeancountriessuchasFranceandSpainwhichwehaveincludedintheproposedEUtarget.That41%levelisreachedin2035,whichwillbeacriticalyearShareof2020passengervehiclemarketcoveredbyICEphase-outcommitmentsandinterim/partialtargetsbyyear0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2021202520302035204020452050NotcoveredCoveredbyEUproposalICEphase-outandinterimtargets(country-levelonly)Governmentcommitments58Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021CountryICEphase-outtargetsandinterim/partialZEVtargetsby2035Automakers’ICEphase-outtargetsby2035Automakers’2035ambitionsdonotyetmatchuptocountrytargetsSource:BloombergNEF.Source:BloombergNEF.Automotivemanufacturers’ICEphase-outtargetsby2035arecurrentlylessambitiousthanthetargetssetbygovernments.Automakersaccountingfor19%oftheglobalpassengervehiclemarkethavestatedtheirintentionstostopsellinginternalcombustionenginevehiclesby2035.Thisisconsiderablylessthanthe41%oftheglobalmarketcoveredbynationalandEUtargets,asshownontheprevioustwoslides.Mostcorporateandcountrytargetsarefor2035,withonlyahandfulfor2040andbeyond.Hondahasseta2040ICEphase-outtarget,whileMercedes-Benztargets2039.Withthosetargetsincluded,automakersaccountingfor27%ofvehiclessoldin2020wouldonlysellelectriccarsby2040(seeslide45).AutomakerswithICEphase-outtarget19%Notcommitted81%ICEphase-out(inplace)7%EUproposed(restofEU)12%U.S.9%China11%India1%Notcommitted59%Governmentcommitments59Zero-EmissionVehiclesFactbook,November10,2021Copyright©BloombergFinanceL.P.2021.ThispublicationisthecopyrightofBloombergFinanceL.P.inconnectionwithBloombergNEF.Noportionofthisdocumentmaybephotocopied,reproduced,scannedintoanelectronicsystemortransmitted,forwardedordistributedinanywaywithoutpriorconsentofBloombergNEF.DisclaimerTheBloombergNEF("BNEF"),service/informationisderivedfromselectedpublicsources.BloombergFinanceL.P.anditsaffiliates,inprovidingtheservice/information,believethattheinformationitusescomesfromreliablesources,butdonotguaranteetheaccuracyorcompletenessofthisinformation,whichissubjecttochangewithoutnotice,andnothinginthisdocumentshallbeconstruedassuchaguarantee.Thestatementsinthisservice/documentreflectthecurrentjudgmentoftheauthorsoftherelevantarticlesorfeatures,anddonotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionofBloombergFinanceL.P.,BloombergL.P.oranyoftheiraffiliates(“Bloomberg”).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