MappingIndia’sResidentialRooftopSolarPotentialABottom-upAssessmentUsingPrimaryDataSachinZachariah,BhawnaTyagi,andNeerajKuldeepNovember2023Report©CouncilonEnergy,EnvironmentandWater,2023Image:iStockContentsKeyhighlights1Studybackground2Approach3NationalestimationsforRTSpotentialintheresidentialsegment4State-levelestimationsforRTSpotentialintheresidentialsegment5Awarenessofsolarintheresidentialsector6Policyrecommendations7Annexure8ReferencesImage:CEEWKeyhighlightsRooftopsolarpotentialinIndiaImage:CEEW637GWofresidentialrooftopsolar(RTS)potentialinIndiaIRESsurvey2020coverage•21statescovering97%ofthepopulation•14,850householdswitheighthouseholdsfromeachvillage/wardTechnicalEconomicMarketpotentialpotentialpotential637GW118GW~102GW~11GWAllsuitableRestrictingrooftopEstimationbasedBasedonconsumerrooftopsaresolar(RTS)sizetooneconomicwillingnesstopayentirelycoveredmeethouseholds’viability(Netandpaybackinafivewithsolar.electricitydemand.presentvalue>0).yearperiod.•Unlockingthetechnicalpotentialintheresidentialsegmentrequiresintroducinginnovativebusinessmodelstoutiliseexcessroofspace.•ThiscanplayasignificantroleinIndia’senergytransitionandcontributetowardsitsrenewableenergy(RE)targetof500GWofinstalledcapacityby2030.5SNoouterc:eP:oAtuenthtioarlsa'sasneaslsymsise.ntbasedontheIndiaResidentialEnergySurvey(IRES)dataset.TheestimatedRTSpotentialsarewithoutanycapitalsubsidy.DecodingrooftopsolarpotentialatthenationalandstatelevelsNational-levelinsightsTechnicalpotentialIntotal,85%oftheIntotal,~30%oftheThedeclineinTheMinistryofNewandreducestoone-fifthtechnicalpotentialistechnicalpotentialliestechnicalpotentialisRenewableEnergywhensystemsizeisconcentratedinRTSinthe0-1kWcategory.higherinruralareas(MNRE)subsidy1isrestrictedtomeetsystemssizebetweenHowever,thiscategoryduetolowelectricityeffectiveforanRTShouseholds’electricity0-3kWaselectricityconsumptionduetoconsumptionacrossisnotrecognisedindemandpersqftsystemsizeof1-3kW,policyandsubsidy(6.8kWhpersqft)andcanincreasethelowerelectricitystatesinIndiaiscomparedtourbaneconomicpotentialby~5consumptionpersqft.concentratedintheschemes.areas(7.7kWhperGWbymakingsystemseconomicallyfeasibleforlowerslabs.sqft).moreconsumerswithnochangeinsystemsizesabove3kW.6SNoouterc:e1:.ACuatphitoarls’suabnsaildyysiso.fINR14,558perkWfor1-3kWRTScategoryunderMNREPhaseIIRTSscheme.DecodingrooftopsolarpotentialatthenationalandstatelevelsState-levelinsightsMorethan60%oftheAsignificantdeclineinNet-meteringFlatMNREcapitalConsumerawarenesstechnicalpotentialistechnicalpotentialisregulationsfurthersubsidiesincreaseaboutsolaris<60%inconcentratedinsevenwitnessedinstatesreducetheeconomicsuchasAssam,Bihar,potentialfrom102theeconomicmostofthestates.statesinIndia.GWto~81GW,duetopotentialinstatesbyAwarenessinurbanOdisha,Madhyaareasisonly6%higherPradesh,Rajasthan,minimumkWmakingsystemsrestrictionlimitsforeconomicallyviable.thanruralareas.Jharkhand,andRTSin15states.ForUttarakhandduetoConsumersinmostthelargeshareofWestBengal,thestatesfindRTSsystemshouseholdswithlowpotentialreducestoenergyconsumptionzeroduetoaminimumtobecostly,makingthemaversetopersqft.limitof5kW.buyingthem.7SNoouterc:e1:.ACuatphitoarls’suabnsaildyysiso.fINR14,558perkWfor1-3kWRTScategoryunderMNREPhaseIIRTSscheme.UnlockingtherooftopsolarpotentialintheresidentialsectorRecommendationsConsumer-centricMarket-driveninterventionsinterventionsPolicyandregulatoryinterventions•Rollingoutanationalawareness•Unlockinguntappedpotentialbycampaigntogenerateamoremovingbeyondtraditionalmodels•IntroducingtargetedcapitalsignificantdemandforRTS.toovercomeconstraintssuchassubsidies,particularlyforRTSlimitedroofspace,ownershipofsystemsofsize0-3kW.•Creatingonestopplatformattheroofs,andcapitalconstraints.stateleveltoprovideconsumers•RecognisingRTSsystemsof<1kW,basic,reliable,andcompelling•Introducinglow-costfinancingbothinpoliciesandregulations,asinformationaboutRTS.optionswithafastapprovalprocesssignificantpotentialliesinthisandaseparatelineofcreditforcategory.residentialconsumers.8Source:Authors’analysis.01StudybackgroundImage:CEEWSolarisingIndia’shouseholdsforanacceleratedenergytransitionEstablishingtheneedforRTSLimitedresidentialRTSKeyrooftopsolarpolicydeploymentinitiativesAsof2022,IndianhouseholdsconsumeaboutafourthofthetotalelectricitysoldRTSprovidesanexcellentopportunityforOvertheyears,theMNREandstateshaveannually(1317billionunits).ConsumptioninIndianhouseholdstocontributesignificantlyintroducedaslewofpolicy,regulatoryandtheresidentialsectorislikelytodoublebytotheongoingenergytransitionbymarketinitiativestopromoteRTSamong2030aspertheprojectionsofthe20thsubstitutingtheirelectricityconsumptionresidentialconsumers.SomeofthesekeyElectricPowerSurveyofIndia.Thiswillbewithsolar.AsofAugust2023,IndiahasinitiativesincludetheNationalRooftopSolarfuelledbygrowingpercapitaelectricityinstalledabout11GWofRTScapacityPortal,whichhasasimplifiedRTSadoptionconsumption,rapidurbanisation,andaagainst55.3GWofutility-scaleprojects.procedure,directbenefittransferforcapitalreturntonormalcyaftertheCOVID-19Further,theshareofresidentialrooftopsissubsidyundertheCentralFinancialpandemic.only21percentofthetotalRTScapacity,Assistanceschemeandprovisionofnet-giventhatRTSadoptionislargelyskewedmetering,amongothers.Shiftingexistingandfuturehouseholdtowardscommercialandindustrialelectricityneedstocleanenergyremainsconsumers.criticaltoachievingIndia’snationallydeterminedcontributions(NDCs)targetsanddeepdecarbonisationoftheeconomyinthelongrun.10Source:CEA,2023;NREL;MNRE;BridgetoIndiaSolarisingIndia’shouseholdsforanacceleratedenergytransitionAssessmentofrooftopsolarpotentialiscrucialforApproachtoestimatetherooftopsolarpotentialtargetedinterventionThetrueeconomicandmarketpotentialcanbecapturedonlybyTheresidentialrooftopsectorrequirestargetedpoliciesandmarketconsideringhouseholds’economicstrengthandenergyfootprint.interventionstoaccelerategrowthinRTSadoption.ThisnecessitatesWeconductadetailedassessmentofthetechnical,economic,andanin-depthunderstandingofRTSpotentialacrosstheentiremarketpotentialofhouseholdsinIndiabyadoptingthebottom-upconsumerstrata.Thereisadearthofstudiesthatestimatetheapproach.TheassessmentfurtherprovidesinsightsontheRTSpotentialofRTSforresidentialconsumersinIndia.Existingstudiesonpotentialofdifferentstates,theurban-ruralsplit,andpotentialforRTSpotentialarebasedonsecondaryliteratureandprovidelimiteddifferentsystemsizes.understandingwithnoinformationonstate-wisepotential.11Source:CEA,2023;NREL;MNRE;BridgetoIndia02ApproachImage:CEEWBottom-upapproachTypesofpotentialPerformstratifiedsampling1ResourcepotentialTechnicalpotentialConducthousehold-leveldataTheamountofsunshineovertheroofThecapacityofasolarPVsystemthatcollectionareathatcanbeusedtogeneratecanbeinstalledonarooftop,electricalenergyusingasolarPVEstimatetechnicalpotentialatsystem.accountingforfactorssuchasrooftopthehouseholdlevelavailabilityandenergyconsumptionofEstimateeconomicandmarketthehouse.feasibilityatthehouseholdlevelEconomicpotentialMarketpotentialMultiplyestimateswithweightageforthevillage/wardlevelTheportionoftechnicalpotentialthatTheportionofeconomicpotentialiseconomicallyfeasiblei.e.thenetwhereeitherthepaybackperiodoftheMultiplyestimateswithsolarPVsystemislessthanfiveyearsweightageforthedistrictlevelpresentvalueofsavingsthatisgreaterthantheexpensesofsettingupaorconsumerwillingnesstobuyisMultiplyestimateswithsystem.positive.weightageforthestatelevel∑ofpotential(s)inallstates≈IndiaRTSpotential1.Samplingapproachisprovidedindetailintheannexures.DataonIndianhouseholdscapturedthroughtheIndiaResidentialEnergySurvey(IRES)150010005000RuralUrbanIRESsurvey2020coverage:•21statescovering97%ofthepopulation.Dataconsistsof66%ruraland34%urbanhouseholds.•152districtsselectedthroughclustersampling•1210villagesand614urbanwardsthroughclustersampling•14,850householdswitheighthouseholdsfromeachvillage/ward14S2o0u2r0c:eD:eAsgigranwaanld,Sdhaatlauq,SuuanlitilyM.Naenwi,ADbehlhisi:hCeokuJnaicnil,oKnarEtnheikrgGya,nEensvainroannmdeJnothaanndneWsaUtrepre.lainen.2020.IndiaResidentialEnergySurvey(IRES)HouseholdsurveyedHaryanaChhattisgarhJharkhandUttarakhandHimachalPradeshKeralaDelhiAssamPunjabTelanganaAndhraPradeshOdishaKarnatakaGujaratMadhyaPradeshRajasthanTamilNaduWestBengalBiharMaharashtraUttarPradeshDecisiontreetoestimateresidentialrooftopsolarpotentialTechnicalpotentialResourcepotentialTechnicalpotentialRooftopareabasedConsumerenergyconsumptionbasedParametersusedforcalculationParametersusedforcalculation•StateweatherprofileParametersusedforcalculation•Rooftoparea•Statesrooftopareaavailable•Consumers’energyconsumption•Rooftopavailabilityfactor1•Rooftoparea•Rooftopsustainabilityfactor2Minimumoftechnicalpotential{Rooftoparea,energyconsumption}EconomicpotentialEconomicpotential={Technicalpotential,SystemseconomicallyviableifNPV>0ifsystemiseconomicallyviable0,ifsystemParametersusedforcalculationare•RTSsystemcost3iseconomicallyunviable}•Energyconsumption•RetailelectricitytariffMarketpotential={Yes,ifconsumerisMarketpotentialinterestedandNPV5>0orconsumerisnotinterestedbutNPV5>0;No,otherwise}Parametersusedforcalculation•Paybackperiodlessthanfiveyears•ConsumerswillingnesstoinstallRTS15Notes:1.Rooftopavailabilityfactordeterminestheavailabilityofroofspaceforinstallationafteraccountingforshading,obstructions,andotherconstraints.2.Rooftopsuitabilityfactordeterminesthesuitabilityoftherooftoputupthesystemfor25years.3.TheRTSsystemcostisconsideredwithoutsubsidy.03NationalestimationsforRTSpotentialintheresidentialsegmentImage:CEEWIndia'shouseholdscandeploymorethan600GWofrooftopsolarTechnicalpotential637GWAllsuitablerooftopsareTechnicalpotentialreducestoone-fifthafterlimitingthesystemsizebycoveredwithsolar.1electricityconsumption.ThisisprimarilydrivenbylowerelectricityconsumptionpersqftinmostofthestatesinIndia.Economicpotential118GWRTSsizeequaltoaMostresidentialconsumersfallinlowconsumptionslabs–(0-100)and(100–Marketpotentialhousehold’s300)kWhpermonth.Typically,theseconsumersreceiveelectricityataelectricitydemand.subsidisedratetomakeelectricityaffordableforthem.Asaresult,lowresidentialelectricitytariffratesreducetheeconomic~102GWEstimationbasedonviabilityofrooftopsystemseventhoughtheyaretechnicallyfeasible.Thiseconomicviabilityreducesthetechnicalpotentialby16GWtoarriveateconomicpotential.(NPV>0).Thepotentialreducesfurtherto11GWwhenthepaybackperiodis~11GWBasedonconsumerrestrictedtofiveyearsandwithconsumers’limitedwillingnesstopay.Thisiswillingnesstopayprimarilydrivenbylowerelectricitytariffratesandhighsystemcosts,makingandpaybackperiod.thesystemunabletorecovertheinvestmentcostinfiveyears,furtherworsenedbylimitedconsumerawarenessaboutthebenefitsofRTS.17SNoouterc:e1:.AFuotrhrooro'sftaonpawlyistihsshading,only50%ofthespaceisconsideredavailableforRTS.2TheestimatedRTSpotentialsarewithoutanycapitalsubsidy.Rooftopsolarpotentialshiftsto<3kWsystemsizesrestrictedbyelectricityconsumptionTechnicalpotential–Technicalpotential-Economicpotential(GW)Marketpotential(GW)Rooftopareabased(GW)Energyconsumptionbased(GW)0.50.55210.516172362633514255154320452500-11-22-33-10>10(kW)•Technicalpotentialbasedonrooftopareaisconcentratedinsystemsizesabove3kW,indicatingthepotentialforputtinguplargersystemsprimarilybasedonhighaveragerooftopspaceacrossstates.•Limitingthesystemsizebyelectricityconsumptionreducesandshiftsthepotentialtothe<3kWsystemsizecategoriesaselectricityconsumptionacrossstatesinIndiaisconcentratedinthelowertwoslabs–(0-100)kWhand(100–300)kWhpermonth.•CurrentRTSnetmeteringregulationinmoststatesrestricttheinstallationofanRTSsystemtobelow1kWbyspecifyingtheminimumcapacitycriteria.18SNoouterc:eT:hAeuethstoimrsa’taendalRyTsiSspuostinegntIiRaElsSadraetaw.ithoutanycapitalsubsidy.RuralhouseholdshaveabundantspacebutlowelectricitydemandconcentrateseconomicpotentialinlowerkWcategoriesTechnicalpotential–Technicalpotential-Economicpotential(GW)Marketpotential(GW)Rooftopareabased(GW)Energyconsumptionbased(GW)0.50.52110.531205350.41442317180.71852010-11-22-33-10>10(kW)•Rooftoparea-basedtechnicalpotentialishigherinruralareas(~363GW)duetohigheraverageroofspacecomparedtourbanareas(~274GW).•Themostpreferredsystemsizeislessthan2kWinruralareasduetolowerelectricitydemand.19SNoouterc:eT:hAeuethstoimrsa’taendalryosoisftuospinsgoIlaRrESpodtaetnat.ialsarewithoutanycapitalsubsidy.1-2kWisthemostpreferredRTSsystemsizeinurbanareasTechnicalpotential–Technicalpotential-Economicpotential(GW)Marketpotential(GW)Rooftopareabased(GW)Energyconsumptionbased(GW)0.63102.81513102.60.91213110131013530270-11-22-33-10>10(kW)•Technicalpotentialinurbanareasdeclinesby76%whenwerestrictthesystemsizerequirementbyelectricityconsumption.•Economicpotentialishigherinurbanareasduetohighelectricitydemandpersqft(7.7kWhpersqft)ascomparedtoruralareas(6.8kWhpersqft).•Marketpotentialisskewedinurbanareasduetohighereconomicfeasibilityandconsumers’willingnesstobuy.20SNoouterc:eT:hAeuethstoimrsa’taendalryosoisftuospinsgoIlaRrESpodtaetnat.ialsarewithoutanycapitalsubsidy.TheimpactofpoliciesandregulationsonrooftopsolarpotentialImpactofstatemeteringregulationsImpactofMNRERTSsubsidiesImpactofvariationsinpaybackperiodsEconomic102GW~81GWEconomic102GW107GW806832Economicpotential(GW)506070Economicpotential(GW)8years60Marketpotential(GW)405050304040322941453011305years20201020PaybackperiodWithoutsubsidy102610710131416160010172010130.510>10005303years0-11-22-33-100-11-22-33-10>10RTSsystemcategory(kW)RTSsystemcategory(kW)WithnetmeteringWithoutnetmeteringRuralUrbanWithsubsidy•Introducingthenetmeteringregulationreducesthe•TheMNREsubsidyiseffectiveforRTSsystemsizes•IncreasingthepaybackperiodtoeightyearseconomicpotentialduetotheminimumkWof1-3kWandincreasetheeconomicpotentialbyincreasesthemarketpotentialsignificantlyasmorerestrictionlimitforRTSin15states,rangingfrom~5GWbymakingsystemseconomicallyfeasibleforhouseholdsareabletorecovertheinvestmentcost102GWto81GW.moreconsumers.overalongertimeframeevenwithlowelectricityconsumption.•PotentialreducestozeroforWestBengalduetothe•Nochangeinpotentialobservedinthe3-10kWminimumlimitof5kW.category,implyingthatthesystemswerefeasible•Themarketpotentialincreasesfurtheronwithoutsubsidies.introducinganMNREcapitalsubsidyasitmakesRTS•Themaximumlimitdoesn’thaveanimpactonRTSfeasibleformorehouseholdswithafiveyearpotential.paybackperiod.21SNoouterc:e1:.ANuetthmorest’earninaglyrseisg.ulationspecifytheminimumandmaximumsystemsizesthatcanbeinstalledasgrid-connectedsystems.2.CapitalsubsidyofINR14,558perkWforthe1-3kWRTScategoryundertheMNREPhaseIIRTSscheme.04State-levelestimationsforRTSpotentialintheresidentialsegmentImage:CEEW~25crorehouseholdscouldsupport637GWRTScapacityacrossstates637GW118GW~102GW~11GWTechnicalpotential–Technicalpotential–Economicpotential(GW)Marketpotential(GW)Rooftopareabased(GW)Energyconsumptionbased(GW)•RTSpotentialisspreadgeographicallyacrossstatesinIndiaincontrasttootherrenewabletechnologiessuchasutilityscalesolar,windprojects,etc.andcouldbecriticaltostates’energytransitionambitions•Morethan60%oftechnicalpotentialisconcentratedinsevenstatesinIndia.One-thirdofthetotaltechnicalpotentialcouldsupporttheentireelectricitydemandoftheresidentialsector(~310TWh),althoughnotallofthisdemandisinthedaytime.•AsignificantdeclineintechnicalpotentialiswitnessedinstatessuchasAssam,Bihar,Odisha,MadhyaPradesh,Rajasthan,Jharkhand,andUttarakhandduetothehighshareofhouseholdswithlowenergyconsumptionpersqft.23SNoouterc:eT:hAeuethstoimrsa’taendalRyTsiSspuostinegntIiRaElsSadraetaw.ithoutanycapitalsubsidy.RuralstratashowshighertechnicalpotentialcomparedtourbanareasacrossstatesTechnicalpotential-RooftopareabasedTechnicalpotential–EnergybasedTechnicalpotentialbasedonrooftopareaismuchhigherinruralareas(363GW)comparedtoAndhraPradesh11163038AndhraPradesh3512urbanareas(274GW)Assam23Assam611Bihar1015Bihar01Technicalpotentialbasedonrooftopareais91929246muchhigherinruralareascomparedtourbanChhattisgarh11Chhattisgarh5areasinmostofthestatesexceptMaharashtra,Delhi0162933Delhi00..22Delhi1,TamilNadu,GujaratandAssamdueto5819316morerooftopspacesinurbanareasintheseGujarat56Gujarat06states.Haryana151726Haryana125HimachalPradesh35HimachalPradesh12Restrictingbyelectricityconsumption,potentialJharkhandJharkhanddeclinesacrossallstatesduetolowerelectricityKarnataka1011Karnataka0.31consumptionpersqft,i.e.,thereismoreroof91001.5spaceavailablethansystemsizeneededtomeetKerala68Keralaelectricitydemand.MadhyaPradeshMadhyaPradesh221023TechnicalpotentialbasedonenergyconsumptionMaharashtraMaharashtraishigherinurbanareas(65GW)thanruralareasOdisha11Odisha11(52GW)duetohigherelectricityconsumptioninPunjabPunjaburbanareas.434622RajasthanRajasthan4TamilNadu2539TamilNaduTelangana17Telangana23UttarPradeshUttarPradeshUttarakhandUttarakhand4WestBengalWestBengal2200..45401020304050051015GWGWUrbanRuralUrbanRural24SNooutercse::1A.Dutehlhoir'hsaasnoanlylysisurubsainngsIpRaEcSedsaintaitsregion.CapitalsubsidieshaveanimpactoneconomicpotentialinsevenstatesAndhraPradesh58AndhraPradesh8DeclineineconomicpotentialishigherinstatesAssam12Assam8withlowerelectricitytariffratesmakingitBiharBihar22economicallylessattractiveforconsumerstoput358185581188upsystemswithoutupfrontcapitalsubsidies.Chhattisgarh00.2818Chhattisgarh820DelhiDelhi00..22Lowerlimitsinnetmeteringregulations(i.e.1kW441020451100andabove)arerestrictiveinafewstatesreducingGujarat1110Gujarattheeconomicpotential,especiallyforstateswithHaryana00.51012Haryana121214economicpotentialinthe<1kWcategorysuchasHimachalPradesh11HimachalPradesh01.5UttarPradesh,AndhraPradesh,Telangana,Jharkhand01JharkhandRajasthan,Karnataka,Jharkhand,andKerala.KarnatakaKarnataka113411EconomicpotentialdeclinestozeroforWestKerala3KeralaBengalwhichhasalowerlimitof5kWandaboveMadhyaPradesh3MadhyaPradesh44forRTSsystemsunderitsnetmeteringregulation.2234MaharashtraMaharashtra22FlatMNREcapitalsubsidiesincreasetheOdisha22OdishaeconomicpotentialinsevenstatesthathavePunjabPunjab22witnessedadeclinefromtechnicaltoeconomic35potentialbymakingsystemseconomicallyviable.RajasthanRajasthan56TamilNadu35TamilNaduHowever,therewasnoincreaseineconomicTelanganaTelangana55potentialdespiteintroducingcapitalsubsidiesinUttarPradesh11UttarPradeshotherstates.Uttarakhand0Uttarakhand11WestBengalWestBengal999051015051015GWGWWithnetmeteringWithoutnetmeteringWithoutsubsidyWithsubsidy25Source:Authors’analysisusingIRESdata.Marketpotentialwithdifferentpaybackperiods–withoutsubsidyMarketpotential(GW)7GWMarketpotential(GW)11GWMarketpotential(GW)32GWAndhraPradesh0.7AndhraPradesh1.3AndhraPradesh0.22.4Assam0.2Assam0.2Assam3.1Bihar0.3Bihar0.3Bihar0000.53.8Chhattisgarh0.2Chhattisgarh0.2Chhattisgarh0.3Delhi0.3Delhi0.3Delhi0.10.10.1Gujarat0.2Gujarat0.2Gujarat1.1Haryana0.1Haryana0.1HaryanaHimachalPradesh0.2HimachalPradesh0.2HimachalPradesh0.4Jharkhand0.2Jharkhand0.2JharkhandKarnataka0.1Karnataka0.1Karnataka0.20.4Kerala2.1Kerala0.1KeralaMadhyaPradesh0.1MadhyaPradesh0.54.8MadhyaPradesh11.80.4101214Maharashtra0.5Maharashtra0.6Maharashtra0.1Odisha0.3Odisha0.4Odisha0.8Punjab0.5Punjab0.3Punjab3.30.41Rajasthan0.3Rajasthan0Rajasthan1TamilNadu0TamilNadu0.4TamilNaduTelangana0.4TelanganaTelangana0.3UttarPradeshUttarPradeshUttarPradesh0.2UttarakhandUttarakhandUttarakhand0.5WestBengalWestBengalWestBengal0246810121402468101214024683years5years8years•Consideringtheconsumerwillingnesstoadoptandthepaybackperiod(fiveyears),marketpotentialreducessignificantlyacrossstatesto11GW.•MarketpotentialincreasesbyincreasingthepaybackperiodwithsignificantchangesseeninthecaseofAndhraPradesh,Maharashtra,Bihar,Karnataka,andRajasthan.26Source:Authors’analysisusingIRESdata.Marketpotentialwithdifferentpaybackperiods–withsubsidyMarketpotential(GW)10GWMarketpotential(GW)32GWMarketpotential(GW)68GWAndhraPradesh0.8AndhraPradesh2.5AndhraPradesh4.6Assam0.2Bihar0.3Assam0.2Assam1.40Chhattisgarh0.3Bihar3.3Bihar3.3Delhi0.40.2Chhattisgarh0Chhattisgarh0Gujarat0.2Haryana0.1Delhi0.7Delhi2.7HimachalPradesh0.2Jharkhand0.2Gujarat0.4Gujarat0.8Karnataka0.1Haryana0.2Haryana0.4Kerala0.1MadhyaPradesh0.5HimachalPradesh1.1HimachalPradesh1.10.3Maharashtra0.5Jharkhand0.5Jharkhand0.5Odisha0.4Punjab0.3Karnataka2.7Karnataka3.8Rajasthan0Kerala0.2Kerala0.9TamilNadu0.4TelanganaMadhyaPradesh0.4MadhyaPradesh1UttarPradeshUttarakhand4.5Maharashtra12.4Maharashtra14.3WestBengal141646810121416Odisha0.1Odisha0.33yearsPunjab0.8Punjab4.9Rajasthan3.2Rajasthan3.3TamilNadu1TamilNadu6.8Telangana1Telangana3.1UttarPradesh0.3UttarPradesh9.6Uttarakhand0.3Uttarakhand0.5WestBengal0.5WestBengal5.10202468101214160246810125years8years•Marketpotentialincreasesbythreetimesafterintroducingacapitalsubsidyasmoresystemsbecomeseconomicallyviable.Theincreaseismorethan50percentinthecaseoffive-yearandeight-yearpaybackperiods.•Systemsarenoteconomicallyviableformostofthestateswithathree-yearpaybackperiodduetolowerelectricitytariffrates.27Source:Author'sanalysisusingIRESdata05State-levelestimationsAwarenessofsolarintheresidentialsectorImage:iStockLessthan50%ofconsumersinIndiaareawareofsolarConsumerawarenessaboutsolaracrossstatesinIndiaConsumersawareaboutofsolar(%)29SNoouterc:eT:hAeustuhrovresy’aennaqluysirisedusaibnoguIRtEcSondsautma.erawarenessofsolarhomesystemsusedforhouseholdelectricityneeds..Rural4258Urban48AwareNotaware52•Consumerawarenessofsolarisstilllessthan50%atthenationallevel.•Awarenessinmoststatesisclusteredbetween30-50%withonlythreestatesreportingawarenesslevelsabove60%.•Theshareofawarenessinurbanareasisslightlyhigherthanthatinruralareas,butitisstilllowerthan50%.•HighcapitalcostandlimitedawarenessabouttheRTSsystemsareleadingbarriersacrossstatesimpactingconsumers’willingnesstobuy.AwarenesslevelsarehigherinurbanareasinmoststatesAndhraPradesh72%47%42%Assam71%55%Bihar45%68%49%37%Chhattisgarh51%64%Delhi56%40%21%0Gujarat57%37%18%49%HaryanaHimachalPradesh56%38%15%Jharkhand78%Karnataka59%38%42%51%Kerala55%30%MadhyaPradesh38%34%51%Maharashtra27%OdishaPunjab29%56%RajasthanTamilNadu48%Telangana63%UttarPradeshUttarakhand30%WestBengal36%39%56%52%UrbanRuralAwarenesslevelsarehigherinurbanareasinmostofthestatesasawarenesscampaignsarelargelytargetedatcities.However,awarenessinruralareasislargelydrivenbysolarpumpsschemes,solarwaterkiosks,andsolarlanterns,amongothers.30SNoouterc:eT:hAeustuhrovresy’aennaqluysirisedusaibnoguIRtEcSondsautmaerawarenessofsolarhomesystemsusedforhouseholdelectricityneeds.Therelationshipbetweenawarenessandwillingnesstobuy14GJ12HP10Consumerwillingnesstobuy(%)DL86MH42CGTLAPKL0PBASUKRJ0HRTNKABRUPWBJHMPOD1020304050607080Consumerawarenessaboutsolar(%)Mappingstates’awarenesswithconsumerwillingnesstobuyshowcasesapositivecorrelation.However,only25%ofconsumers’willingnesstobuyisexplainedbyconsumerawarenesslevels.ThereareotherfactorsthatalsoimpacttheadoptionofRTS.31SNoouterc:eT:hAeustuhrovre’syaennaqluysirisedusaibnoguIRtEcSondsautmaerawarenessofsolarhomesystemsusedforhouseholdelectricityneeds.06UnlockingdemandpotentialthroughtargetedinterventionsImage:CEEWWhatisneededtoscaleupadoption?(1/3)PolicyandregulatoryinterventionsThereisaneedtointroducetargetedThereisuntappedpotentialinthe0-1Presently,lowelectricitytariffratescapitalsubsidiesforconsumerstokWcategory.However,currentmaketheRTSinstallationseconomicallymaximiseeconomicpotentialandtoregulationsinmanystatesdon’tunviableforconsumers.Recognisingthisensuretheeconomicviabilityofrecognise<1kWinstallationsandcentralbarrier,statesneedtointroducedifferentRTSsystemsizes.Thiswillhelpsubsidiesarealsonotapplicabletothiseconomicallyattractivefeed-intariffstounlockthepotentialintheresidentialcategory.Thereisaneedtoextendthetofacilitatesolarinstallationsandsegment.RTSpotentialinthe0-3kWcapitalsubsidybenefittothebelow1promotethesustainablegrowthofthecategoriesshowsthehighestincreasekWcategoryandrecogniseitinthesector.withtheintroductionofdirectcapitalsolarpoliciesofthestate.Itwillboostsubsidies.RTSadoptioninruralandsemi-urbanlocalitiesacrossIndia.33Whatisneededtoscaleuptheadoption?(2/3)Consumer-centricinterventionsAonestopplatformforconsumersatthestateleveltoreceivecredibleinformationaboutRTSshouldbecreated.TheintentisThereisaneedtorolloutnationalawarenesscampaigntotoprovideconsumerseasyaccesstobasic,reliable,andgarneramoresignificantdemandforRTS.Despitesignificantcompellinginformation.Theseportalswillcoverinformationpotential,thereislimitedwillingnesstoadoptanddeploymentisonRTSsystems,governmentschemes,virtual/physicalsystemskewedtowardsafewstates.Acentralpushsupportedbystatetours,toolsforpre-feasibilityassessment,etc.Theycanregularlyandlocalinterventionsisneeded.Community-drivendemandalsohostinteractivewebinars,virtualdemonstrationtours,aggregationcampaignssuchasSolarisecanbetargeted.doubt-clearingsessions,andcompetitions.34Whatisneededtoscaleuptheadoption?(3/3)Market-driveninterventionsUpfrontcapitalcostalsoimpactstheadoptionofRTSsystem,makingthemeconomicallyunviableforconsumers.ThereisaPresentregulationslimitthecapacityofsystems,thereby,needtointroducelow-costfinancingoptionswithafastreducingthepotentialofRTSsystems.Thereisaneedtoapprovalprocessandaseparatelineofcreditforresidentialintroduceenablingregulations,includingtherecognitionofconsumerstotheencourageadoptionofRTS.innovativemodels(suchascommunitysolar,solarpartners)beyondtraditionalCAPEXandOPEXmodelsandprovisionstoimplementthem.35AnnexureImage:CEEWEstimatingthetechnicalpotentialofahouseholdTechnicalpotential(Rooftoparea(sqft)xrooftopavailabilityfactor(0.7)xrooftopsuitabilityfactor(1))/(basedonroofavailabilityinkW)(100sqftperkW)TechnicalpotentialMinimumof{(constrainedbyconsumptioninkW)(EnergyconsumptionforthelifetimeofaPVsystem(kWh)/lifetimeenergygenerationperkWofsystem(kWh/kW))and(rooftoparea(sqft)xRooftopavailabilityfactor(0.7)xrooftopsuitabilityfactor(1))/(100sqftperkW)}i.e.{T.P(kW)_rb,ifT.P(kW)_rb<T.P(kW)_cbT.P(kW)_cb,ifT.P(kW)_rb>T.P(kW)_cb}where,rb=rooftopareabasedcb=restrainedbyhouseholdenergyconsumption37EstimatingtheeconomicpotentialofahouseholdEconomicfeasibility{YesifNPV>capitalcostEconomicpotential(kW)NoifNPV<capitalcost}Netpresentvalue(INR)Discountfactor{Technicalpotential,ifthesystemiseconomicallyviableNetannualcashflow(INR)0,ifthesystemiseconomicallyunviable}25𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦�𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐∗𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑛𝑛=1𝟏𝟏where,nreferstotheyear(𝟏𝟏+𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒅𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓)𝒏𝒏Annualsavings-annualO&McostAnnualoperationsandmaintenance(O&M)O&Mexpenses(1+O&Mescalationrate)cost(INR)𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎𝒎Annualsavings(INR)Monthlyelectricitybill�(𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝑬𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒘𝒘𝒘𝒘𝒘𝒘𝒘𝒘𝒘𝒘𝒘𝒘𝒘𝒘𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔−𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒆𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒘𝒘𝒘𝒘𝒘𝒘𝒘𝒘𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔)Energyunitcarriedforward(kWh)𝒏𝒏=𝟏𝟏(Monthlyenergyunitsconsumedelectricitytariffslabrate){Unitsgenerated-unitsconsumed,ifgeneration>consumption0,ifconsumption>generation}38Note:O&Mexpensesisonepercentofthesystemcost,whereasthetariffrateescalatedby1%everyyear.EstimatingthemarketpotentialofahouseholdMarketfeasibility{Yes,iftheconsumerisinterestedandNPV5>0orconsumerisnotinterestedbutNPV5>0NPV5No,iftheconsumerisinterestedbutNPV5<0orconsumerisnotinterestedandNPV5<0}5𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦�(𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐∗𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓)𝑛𝑛=1Marketpotential(kW){Economicpotential,ifmarketfeasibilityisYes;0,ifmarketfeasibilityisNo}39Assumptionsanddatasources(1/2)Assumptions•Electricitydemandwasassumedtobeconstantovertheyears.•Excessgenerationiscarriedforwardacrossmonthsbutthereis•Arearequiredforthe1kWsystemis100sqft.•Wehaveconsideredonlypuccahousesinouranalysis.Therefore,nocompensationforexcessattheendofyear.thesuitabilityfactorwasconsideredasone.•Weassumedthesystemswillbeselffinancedwithnosubsidy•Forshadedhouses,wehaveconsideredthat50percentofthecomponent.spacecanbeutilisedtoputupthesystemiftheareaismorethan•Electricityretailtariffratesescalatedattherateof1percent.100sqft.•O&Mwasconsideredtobe1percentofthecapitalcostand•Degradationrateforsystemswasassumedtobe1percent.•Thetemperaturecoefficientofpoweris-0.0035.escalatedattherateof3percent.•Thelifetimeofsystemwasassumedtobe25years.•Discountratewasassumedtobe8percent.40Assumptionsanddatasources(2/2)DatasourcesWeatherprofileRTSsystemcostsNetmeteringElectricitytariffHouseholdsdatawastakenfromweretakenfromlimitsweretakenweresourcedweresourcedfromstates’netfromstates’theNationaltheMNREfromIRESsurveyRenewableBenchmarkmeteringlatesttariffdata2020.cost2022.regulationsororders.EnergyLaboratoryrenewableenergy(NREL).regulations.41References•CEA.2023.AllIndiaElectricityStatistics.CentralElectricityAuthority.https://cea.nic.in/wp-content/uploads/general/2022/GR_Final.pdf•MNRE.2023.CentralFinancialAssistance(CFA)/CentralGovernmentSubsidyforrooftopsolarplantinstalledbyaresidentialconsumerundersimplifiedprocedure.MinistryofNewandRenewableEnergy.https://solarrooftop.gov.in/pdf/revised_CFA_structure_08052023.pdf•MNRE.2021.AmendmentinBenchmarkcostsforGrid-connectedRooftopSolarPVsystemsforthefinancialyear2021-22-reg.MinistryofNewandRenewableEnergy.https://solarrooftop.gov.in/notification/130_notification.pdf•MNRE.2023.StateWiseCumulativeInstalledCapacity.MinistryofNewandRenewableEnergy.https://mnre.gov.in/year-wise-achievement/•BridgetoIndia.2023.IndiaSolarRooftopMap.https://bridgetoindia.com/report/india-solar-rooftop-map-june-2023/•Agrawal,Shalu,SunilMani,AbhishekJain,KarthikGanesanandJohannesUrpelainen.2020.IndiaResidentialEnergySurvey(IRES)2020:Designanddataquality.NewDelhi:CouncilonEnergy,EnvironmentandWater.•NREL.2012.U.S.RenewableEnergyTechnicalPotentials:AGIS-BasedAnalysis.NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL).https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51946.pdf•NREL.n.d.“NationalSolarRadiationDatabase.”NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL).https://nsrdb.nrel.gov•StateElectricityRegulatoryCommission42TheauthorsCopyright©2023CouncilonEnergy,EnvironmentandWater(CEEW).Openaccess.Somerightsreserved.ThisworkislicencedundertheCreativeCommonsAttributionNon-commercial4.0.International(CCBY-NC4.0)licence.Toviewthefulllicence,visit:www.creativecommons.orglicences/by-nc/4.0/legalcode.SachinZachariahSuggestedcitationZachariah,Sachin,BhawnaTyagi,andNeerajKuldeep.2023.MappingIndia’sResidentialRooftopSolarPotentialDisclaimerABottomUpAssessmentUsingPrimaryData.NewDelhi:CouncilonEnergy,EnvironmentandWatersachin.zachariah@ceew.inPeerreviewersPublicationteamTheviewsexpressedinthisstudyarethatoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesoftheCouncilonEnergy,BhawnaTyagiAcknowledgmentsEnvironmentandWaterorBloombergPhilanthropies.bhawna.tyagi@ceew.inOrganisationsSaptakGhosh,SeniorPolicySpecialist,CenterforStudyofScience,TechnologyandPolicy;SubrahmanyamPulipaka,CEO,NationalSolarEnergyFederationofIndia;andDishaAgarwal,SeniorProgrammeLead,CEEW.CoverimagesKartikeyaJain(CEEW);AlinaSen(CEEW);TheCleanCopy;MadreDesigning,andFRIENDSDigitalColourSolutions.WewouldliketothanktheIRESsurveyteamforprovidingthedata.WewouldespeciallyliketoacknowledgethecontributionofSelnaSajiandKumareshRameshinsupportingthisworkandfortheirvaluableinputstothestudy.Wearegratefultothereviewersofthisstudyfortheircommentsandsuggestionswhichhelpedalotinbringingthestudytoitscurrentform.WewouldalsoliketothankBloombergPhilanthropiesforsupportingourworkatCEEW.TheCouncilonEnergy,EnvironmentandWater(CEEW)isoneofAsia’sleadingnot-for-profitpolicyresearchinstitutionsandamongtheworld’stopclimatethinktanks.TheCouncilusesdata,integratedanalysis,andstrategicoutreachtoexplain—andchange—theuse,reuse,andmisuseofresources.TheCounciladdressespressingglobalchallengesthroughanintegratedandinternationallyfocusedapproach.Itpridesitselfontheindependenceofitshigh-qualityresearch,developspartnershipswithpublicandprivateinstitutions,andengageswiththewiderpublic.CEEWhasafootprintinover20Indianstatesandhasrepeatedlyfeaturedamongtheworld’sbestmanagedandindependentthinktanks.FollowusonX(formerlyTwitter)@CEEWIndiaforthelatestupdates.Frontandback-iStockNeerajKuldeepneeraj.kuldeep@ceew.in43CouncilonEnergy,EnvironmentandWaterISIDCampus,4VasantKunjInstitutionalAreaNewDelhi-110070,IndiaT:+911140733300info@ceew.inceew.in@CEEWIndiaceewIndia