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Securing Minerals for

the Energy Transition

WHITE PAPER

DECEMBER 2023

In collaboration with

McKinsey & Company

Images: Getty Images

reserved. No part of this publication may

be reproduced or transmitted in any form

or by any means, including photocopying

and recording, or by any information

storage and retrieval system.

Disclaimer

This document is published by the

World Economic Forum as a contribution

to a project, insight area or interaction.

The ﬁndings, interpretations and

conclusions expressed herein are a result

of a collaborative process facilitated and

endorsed by the World Economic Forum

but whose results do not necessarily

represent the views of the World Economic

Forum, nor the entirety of its Members,

Partners or other stakeholders.

Contents

Executive summary 3

Introduction: Energy transition is at risk of critical minerals undersupply 4

1 Risk characterization 6

2 Addressing the risks 8

3 The need for global collaboration 10

4 Themes for collaborative action 11

Conclusion 13

Contributors 14

Endnotes 16

Securing Minerals for the Energy Transition 2

Executive summary

The world is on an ambitious path to decarbonize

and achieve net-zero emissions. However, critical

minerals essential for key emissions-reduction

technologies may be in short supply by 2030.

Historical underinvestment in mining and

exploration, as well as supply chain disruptions,

are already creating demand-supply gaps. So

are lengthy lead times between exploration and

production, on top of the fact that often these

minerals have complex orebodies, making them

difﬁcult and costly to extract. If current trends hold,

many minerals’ supply may fall short of demand by

2030, potentially jeopardizing short-term climate

goals and driving further price volatility.

It is crucial to identify and understand key supply-

chain risks to manage the minerals-related

obstacles for the energy transition. Two types

of risks are associated with the supply-demand

gap of critical minerals: (i) risks associated with

the inability to close the supply-demand gap and

(ii) risks associated with the efforts to close the

supply-demand gap. Both could signiﬁcantly delay

the energy transition. These risks threaten to disrupt

the supply chain beyond the mining and metals

industry, delay the energy transition, and have

deleterious social and environmental outcomes.

This report identiﬁes 10 high-priority risk

management strategies for these key minerals.

These strategies are designed to: reduce resource

intensity; mobilize investment; leverage alternative

ﬁnancing; increase data transparency; address

price uncertainty; increase value-add for local

communities; encourage dialogue on policy design;

accelerate innovation; address lack of consistency

among mining-related environmental, social and

governance (ESG) standards; and streamline mining

projects’ approval. They are essential for creating a

more resilient and sustainable mining industry that

can meet the growing demand for critical minerals

in a responsible and equitable manner.

Effective risk management requires stakeholders

to collectively reduce and adapt to supply-chain

risks. Global collaboration can raise awareness and

drive action to tackle the disparity in the supply

and demand of critical minerals. On the contrary,

isolated efforts by governments, the private sector

and non-proﬁt organizations are unlikely to address

the energy transition challenge. Collaboration

is necessary to unify efforts, mitigate regional

imbalances and ensure sufﬁcient and equitable

supply of critical minerals.

The key themes for global collaboration include

facilitating policy dialogue, supporting investment

mobilization, accelerating innovation, evaluating

gaps in existing ESG standards, and building

capabilities across the value chain. This report dives

into the critical role of three priority collaborative

actions – facilitating policy dialogue, supporting

investment mobilization and accelerating innovation.

Securing Minerals for the Energy Transition

December 2023

Securing Minerals for the Energy Transition 3

/17

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IncollaborationwithMcKinsey&CompanySecuringMineralsfortheEnergyTransitionWHITEPAPERDECEMBER2023Images:GettyImagesContentsExecutivesummary3Introduction:Energytransitionisatriskofcriticalmineralsundersupply41Riskcharacterization62Addressingtherisks83Theneedforglobalcollaboration104Themesforcollaborativeaction11Conclusion13Contributors14Endnotes16DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.©2023WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.SecuringMineralsfortheEnergyTransition2December2023SecuringMineralsfortheEnergyTransitionExecutivesummaryTheworldisonanambitiouspathtodecarbonizeintensity;mobilizeinvestment;leveragealternativeandachievenet-zeroemissions.However,criticalfinancing;increasedatatransparency;addressmineralsessentialforkeyemissions-reductionpriceuncertainty;increasevalue-addforlocaltechnologiesmaybeinshortsupplyby2030.communities;encouragedialogueonpolicydesign;accelerateinnovation;addresslackofconsistencyHistoricalunderinvestmentinminingandamongmining-relatedenvironmental,socialandexploration,aswellassupplychaindisruptions,governance(ESG)standards;andstreamlineminingarealreadycreatingdemand-supplygaps.Soprojects’approval.Theyareessentialforcreatingaarelengthyleadtimesbetweenexplorationandmoreresilientandsustainableminingindustrythatproduction,ontopofthefactthatoftenthesecanmeetthegrowingdemandforcriticalmineralsmineralshavecomplexorebodies,makingtheminaresponsibleandequitablemanner.difficultandcostlytoextract.Ifcurrenttrendshold,manyminerals’supplymayfallshortofdemandbyEffectiveriskmanagementrequiresstakeholders2030,potentiallyjeopardizingshort-termclimatetocollectivelyreduceandadapttosupply-chaingoalsanddrivingfurtherpricevolatility.risks.GlobalcollaborationcanraiseawarenessanddriveactiontotacklethedisparityinthesupplyItiscrucialtoidentifyandunderstandkeysupply-anddemandofcriticalminerals.Onthecontrary,chainriskstomanagetheminerals-relatedisolatedeffortsbygovernments,theprivatesectorobstaclesfortheenergytransition.Twotypesandnon-profitorganizationsareunlikelytoaddressofrisksareassociatedwiththesupply-demandtheenergytransitionchallenge.Collaborationgapofcriticalminerals:(i)risksassociatedwithisnecessarytounifyefforts,mitigateregionaltheinabilitytoclosethesupply-demandgapandimbalancesandensuresufficientandequitable(ii)risksassociatedwiththeeffortstoclosethesupplyofcriticalminerals.supply-demandgap.Bothcouldsignificantlydelaytheenergytransition.TheserisksthreatentodisruptThekeythemesforglobalcollaborationincludethesupplychainbeyondtheminingandmetalsfacilitatingpolicydialogue,supportinginvestmentindustry,delaytheenergytransition,andhavemobilization,acceleratinginnovation,evaluatingdeleterioussocialandenvironmentaloutcomes.gapsinexistingESGstandards,andbuildingcapabilitiesacrossthevaluechain.ThisreportdivesThisreportidentifies10high-priorityriskintothecriticalroleofthreeprioritycollaborativemanagementstrategiesforthesekeyminerals.actions–facilitatingpolicydialogue,supportingThesestrategiesaredesignedto:reduceresourceinvestmentmobilizationandacceleratinginnovation.SecuringMineralsfortheEnergyTransition3IntroductionAsclimateambitionrisesgloballyandtheenergytransitionaccelerates,thesupplyofcriticalmineralsisexpectedtofallshortofdemandby2030.TheworldhasembarkedonanambitiousUndercurrentprojections,thesupplyofcriticaldecarbonizationjourneytowardsnet-zeroemissionscommoditiesisexpectedtobeinsufficienttotargets.Thistransitionwillrequirefundamentalmeettherisingdemand.Theconsumptionoftechnologyshiftsacrossindustriesatanmineralsandmetalscomesinahistoricalcontextunprecedentedspeed.Eachofthekeylow-carbonofunderinvestmentinmineralexplorationandabatementtechnologiesandenergysolutionsreliesmining.Inthelast10years,theratioofglobalonmineralsandmetals,andtheconsumptionofcapitalexpendituretorevenuedecreasedtotheserawmaterialsissettowitnessasignificantlessthan10%comparedto15%inthepreviousincreaseoverthenextdecade.decade.1Moreover,theminingsupplychainfacedincreasingchallenges,suchascomplexorebodies,AccordingtotheInternationalEnergyAgencydecreasinggradesaswellasdisruptions.These(IEA)’sAnnouncedPledgesScenario,demandforchallenges,aswellaslongleadtimesbetweencriticalmineralsforcleanenergytechnologieswillexplorationandmineralproductionthatcannotgrowmorethantwo-foldby2030.Cleanerenergyeasilybecompressed,makeitdifficulttospeedupinfrastructure,suchaswindpowerandbatterydevelopment.Withoutfurtheraction,thesupplyelectricvehicles(BEVs)thatusemorecriticalmineralofcommoditiessuchascopper,nickel,lithium,componentsthanthelegacyenergyinfrastructure,cobaltandrareearthelements(REEs)maynotbewilldependonthesupplyofcriticalminerals.sufficienttomeetthe2030demand(Figure1).2FIGURE1Anticipatedsupply-demandgapundertheIEA’sAnnouncedPledgesScenarioMegatonCopperKilotonLithium35+8%AnnouncedNetzero700AnnouncedNetzero30PledgesScenarioemissionsby600+6%PledgesScenarioemissionsby252050scenario5002050scenario20demand400demand1530010200-16%100Megaton5Kiloton00AnnouncedNetzero2030AnnouncedNetzero2030PledgesScenarioemissionsbysupplyPledgesScenarioemissionsbysupply2050scenario2050scenariodemandCobaltdemandNickel3506+6%3005250200415010032501020300supply2030supplySupply-demandgapinanAnnouncedPledgesScenario.Note:Expectedsupplyby2030atcurrentpaceofproduction;Expecteddemandin2030underAnnouncedPledgesScenario.Source:IEA,CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023.Shortageswouldleadtosignificantpricespikesand–Sustainability:Anenergysystemthatisvolatilityacrossminerals,whichinturnwouldmakeconsumption-consciousanddecarbonized,thekeytechnologiesmoreexpensive.supportingtheambitionofacleanerandlesspollutedearthforcurrentandfuturegenerations.Inthecomingdecades,itwillbecrucialtosecureareliablesupplyofenergy-transitionmineralstoTheWorldEconomicForum’sSecuringMineralssupportthethreedimensionsoftheenergytriangle:fortheEnergyTransition(SMET)initiativehasbeenworkingonidentifyingtherisksthatwill–Security:Areliable,uninterruptedandemergeifcriticalminerals’supplylagsdemand,evolvingenergysystemthatcanwithstandandformulatingpriorityriskmanagementandrespondtosupply-demanddynamicsandstrategies(Box1).Theinitiativehasalsobeenrecoverrapidlyfromdisruptions.focusedonbuildingcollaborationandconnectionsbetweenrelevantstakeholderstoswiftlymobilize–Equity:Anenergysysteminwhichenergyisfairlyactionandraiseawarenesstoaddressthedistributed,accessibleandaffordable;asystemsupply-demandimbalance.inwhichsustainabilityinitiatives(andbenefits)aresharedtoenableinclusive,equitableeconomicgrowthandimprovedstandardsofliving.BOX1ObjectivesoftheSMETinitiativeTheSecuringMineralsfortheEnergyTransition2.Conveneglobalstakeholdersinacommon(SMET)initiativehastwoobjectives:efforttosupportasecure,equitableandsustainablesupplyofmineralsessentialforthe1.Identifyandcharacterizestrategiesfortheenergytransition.collectivemanagementofrisksfromthesupply-demandgapincriticalmineralsneededSMETisaninitiativeoftheWorldEconomicintheenergytransition.ForuminpartnershipwithMcKinsey&Companyastheknowledgepartner,andadiversegroupofinternationalandprivatesectororganizations.SecuringMineralsfortheEnergyTransition51RiskcharacterizationIdentifyingandunderstandingkeyrisksacrossmultipledimensionsiscrucialtomanagepotentialobstaclesfortheenergytransition.Twotypesofrisksareevident:(i)risksassociatedontheirpotentialimpactontheecosystemandthewiththeinabilitytoclosethesupply-demandgap,likelihoodoftheiroccurrence.Althoughseveralrisksand(ii)risksassociatedwitheffortstoclosethecouldaffecttheecosystem,onlythemostrelevantsupply-demandgap,bothofwhichthreatentooneswereconsideredfortheprioritylist.significantlydelaytheenergytransition.TheSMETinitiativehasexploredecosystemrisks,namely,risksThesepriorityrisksspanfivecategories,chosennotonlytotheprimarystakeholdersinthevalueinlinewiththePESTELframework,3consideringchain(suchasrawmineralsuppliers,technologypolitical,economic,social,technologicalandproducers,originalequipmentmanufacturers(OEMs)environmentalriskdimensions.Forlikelihoodtoandintermediaries)butalsosecondarystakeholdershappen,“low”representedariskthatisnotlikely(includingconsumers,governmentsandthewidertohappenand“extremelyhigh”ariskthatisverysocietyandtheenvironment).likelytooccur.Forimpactontheecosystem,“low”representedaminorimpactand“extremelyhigh”TheSMETinitiativehasidentifiedandprioritizedrepresentedacatastrophicimpactonhumantheserisksthroughworkshopswithadiversegrouplivesorsociety.Therisksarelikelytodifferacrossofstakeholders,includinginternationalorganizationsgeographiesandtime.ThemainrisksidentifiedandprivatesectorcompaniesfromacrossthevalueandscoredaresummarizedinFigure2,acrossthechain.Theparticipantsassessedtherisksbasedlikelihood-impactmatrix.FIGURE2EcosystemrisksfromthesupplydemandimbalanceofcriticalmaterialsImpact1ExtremelyCatastrophicLackofpoliticalwillforDelayofthehighclimateeventstheenergytransitionenergytransitionHighConﬂictoverresourcesReputationalHigherenvironmentalpressureonMediumdamageforecosystemsandwastegenerationJoblossesincaseenergytransitionofmaterialsshortageHigherdemandforresourcesIncreasingresourcefromincreasedminingBacklashinadoptingESGtargetsnationalismnewtechnologiesbecomingCascadingrenewableunattainabletechnologyshortagesSupplychainLackofaccesstofragmentationReducedMarketvolatilityIncreasingtradeRisingnewcapitaltoaddressresponsibleanduncertaintyfragmentationtechnologypricestheimbalanceminingResourcesusedforclimatechangeIncreaseinadaptationinsteadofmitigationartisanalandillegalminingReducedSetbacksinsocio-economicRegulatoryracetotheStockpilingofcriticalmineralsLowincentivesfornewminingprojectsaccesstodevelopmentinproducingbottomasinvestmentGeopoliticalrisksdisruptingmaterialsvaluechainsLoweracceptanceofminingprojectsenergyandcountriesforcedtoleapfrogﬂowstocountrieswithPressuresinsubstitutematerialsupplychainsUncoordinatedlandusetransporttraditionalformoreexpensivelowerESGstandardsservicestechnologiesIncreasedworkforcepressureforproductivityoverwell-beingLowLikelihood2LowMediumHighExtremelyhighSecondaryrisk(cannotbedirectlyaddressedinthevaluechain).Highestlikelihoodandimpactrisks.PoliticalEconomicSocialTechnologicalEnvironmentalNote:1.Impactontheecosystem:“Low”representsminorimpactand“Extremelyhigh”representscatastrophicimpactonhumanlives,societiesandtheplanet.2.Likelihoodtohappen:“Low”representsariskthatisnotlikelytocometopassand“Extremelyhigh”ariskthatisverylikelytooccur.Source:Riskidentificationbasedoninsightsfromriskcharacterizationworkshop,“SecuringMineralsfortheEnergyTransition”,andMcKinseyanalysis.AssessmentstructurefromWorldEconomicForumGlobalRisksReport2017.Therisksidentifiedintheworkshoparerenamedandplacedinthematrixbasedontheassessment.2AddressingtherisksEffectiveriskmanagementnecessitatesconcertedeffortsbyallstakeholderstocollectivelyreduceandadapttorisks.Properriskmitigationneedscoordinatedefforts.Riskcanbeleveragedbylocalgovernmentsandmanagementstrategiesmustproactivelyidentify,industryleaderstoincreasetransparency,assessandmitigatesupply-demandimbalances,reducerisksandenhanceclimatefinanceensuringasmootherandmoreresilienttransitionreadiness.Examplesofalternativefinancingtowardsasustainableenergyfuture.Whileeffortsinstrumentsincludeconcessionalandblendedarecurrentlyontomanagesupplyrisksacrosskeyfinance,impactinvestingandgreenbonds.geographiesandminerals,morecoordinatedactionisneededandatanacceleratedpace.4.Increasedatatransparencyonsupplyanddemand.Thetop10high-prioritystrategiesselectedforImproveddatatransparencyintheminingimplementationare:industryandcriticalmineralsupplychainscanhelpstakeholdersmakewell-informeddecisions1.Decreasetheresourceintensityofminingtosecurecriticalminerals.Sharingaccurateactivitieswhileimprovingresourceandup-to-dateinformationonsupplyandefficiencyandreuse.demanddynamicscanenablestakeholderstoTheenvironmentalimpactofminingoperationstakeproactivemeasuresthataddresspotentialcanbereducedbyadoptingmoresustainableshortagesorexcessesofcriticalminerals.Thispracticesthatminimizetheconsumptionofcanincludemineraltrackingsystemsthroughoutnaturalresourcessuchasmineralsandwater.thesupplychaintopredictfuturedemandThisinvolvesemployingefficienttechnologiesandtrends.Collaborativeplatformsforsharingglobalimplementingclosed-loopsystemstoextract,andnationaldemanddataformineralscanalsoprocessandreuseminerals.Someexamplesincreasetransparency.includeadoptingcircularitymodelssuchasurbanmining(e.g.extractingcriticalmineralslikeREEs5.Addresspriceuncertaintyduetolimitedfromend-of-lifeelectronics),reducingwastebyinformation.extractingmorefromlower-qualityoresthroughThecreationofstabletradingrelationshipscanleachingtechnologies,andthecreationofaaddresspriceuncertainty.Stakeholderscansecondarymarketforcriticalminerals.4usefinancialinstrumentslikehedgingstrategies,orexplorelong-termcontractstoprovide2.Mobilizeinternationalprivateandgreaterpricestabilityforbothproducersandinstitutionalinvestmentforthetransition.consumers.Further,thereisaneedforpriceInvestmentfromprivateandinstitutionaltransparencymeasuressuchasfacilitatingsourcescanincreasethesupplyofcriticalgreateruseofspotpricingtransactions,mineralstosupportthetransition.Withoutparticularlyinthosemineralmarketswherethesufficientfinancing,technologicalinnovationsinformationiscoveredinlong-term,undisclosedthatfacilitateexploration,miningproductivitycommercialagreementsandofftakecontractsandefficiency,andprocessingandrecyclingbetweenbuyersandsellers.processes,areunlikelytobridgethesupply-demandgapforcriticalminerals.6.Increasevalue-addforlocalcommunities.FurtherinvestmentscanbeencouragedbyMiningcompaniescantakestepstoreduceinstitutionalizingESGprinciplesinforeigntheimpactthatlanduse,extractionandinvestmentsandthroughdigitalplatformspollutionhaveonnature,whileincreasingthethatconnectresponsibleinvestorstosocio-economicbenefitsoftheirprojects.responsibleprojects.Whenbeginningnewprojectsandexpandingcurrentoperations,miningcompaniescan3.Leveragealternativefinancinginstrumentsfostersustainabledevelopmentthroughjobsinchallengingmarkets.5andskillscreation,localdevelopmentandtheAlternativefinancinginstruments(i.e.financialpromotionofequalityandinclusion.Thiswillproductsandservicesthataredesignedtorequirecollaborationbetweencompaniesandraisecapitaloutsideoftraditionalchannels)cangovernmentstoidentifystrategicprioritiesforreduceinvestorrisks,especiallyformarketswithlocalsocio-economicdevelopment.limitedfinancereadiness.TheseinstrumentsSecuringMineralsfortheEnergyTransition87.Encouragingdialogueonpolicydesign.9.AddressthelackofconsistencyamongPolicy-makersmustfosteraconduciveminingESGstandards.environmentforinvestmentinthemineralsHarmonizedregionalandinternationalminingneededfortheenergytransitionandtoESGstandardscanhelpcreatealevelplayingensureequitableandlong-termaccess.Theyfieldforcompanies.Toachievethis,itismustconsidertheinterconnectednessofimportanttoharmonizeexistingframeworksenvironmental,socialandeconomicfactorstoremoveroadblocksinESGperformance,whenformulatingregulations.Aholistic,reportingandtracking.Thesestandardswillglobal-levelcollaborationandpolicydiscussionpromoteresponsiblemining,enhancethebetweengovernmentsandpublicandprivatetransparencyofESGmetricsandensurethatsectororganizationsisessential.environmentalandsocialimpactsaremanagedconsistentlyacrossjurisdictions.Thismay8.Acceleratethepaceofinnovation.reducemonitoringcostsandincreasetrustInnovationintechnologiesandpracticesthroughoutthevaluechain.caneitherreducethedemandforacriticalmineralatitsenduseorincreaseitssupplyby10.Streamlineandde-riskprocessesforpromotingefficiencyinproductionthroughoutapprovalandgovernanceofminingprojects.thevaluechain.Researchanddevelopment,Effortstothisendcanreduceleadtimesandaswellascollaborationbetweenacademiaandstrengthensupply.Modernizedandstandardizedindustry,candrivetheadoptionofcutting-edgepermitandapprovalprocedureslikeasingle-technologiesandmethodsthatcanhelpreducewindowsystem,onlinesubmissionplatforms,bothcurrentandfutureshortages.Recognitiondigitalrecord-keepingandreal-timetrackingcanplatformsoracceleratorprogrammescanhelpstreamlineapprovals.Moreover,enhancingtheincentivize,promoteandscaleinnovationsgovernanceandoversightofminingprojectscanthroughoutthevaluechain.ensurecompliancewithregulations.3TheneedforglobalcollaborationWorldwidecollaborationcanraiseawarenessandreducedisparityinthesupplyanddemandofcriticalminerals.Globalcollaboration,withtheparticipationofmultipleinclusion.Thesefragmentationsmayexacerbatestakeholdersincludingregulators,non-profits,regionalimbalancesanddisparitiesinaccessresearchers,industryassociationsandfinanciers,istothesecrucialresources.6Hence,aglobalessentialtoovercometheenergytransitionchallenge.collaborativeeffortisneededforcollectiveaction.7TheSMETcommunitycollaboratedwithleadersfromAcollaborativeeffortcanenablekeyactorstoover15initiativestoanalysethecoverageofexistingdiscussgaps,risks,solutionsaswellasgoodeffortsrelatedtomineralsfortheenergytransition.practicesandbenefitfromkeyinitiativesbeingThisanalysisshowedthatmostoftheinitiativesdoundertakenbydifferentinstitutions.Further,anotencompassalldimensionsoftheenergytriangle,collaborativegroupcanidentifygapsandprioritizenamelysecurity,equityandsustainability.topicsandpotentialactionsintherelevantspaceswhileconveningstakeholdersregularlyTheabsenceofaunifiedefforttobridgethesupply-tofosterdialogue.ConnectingactorstoraisedemandgapmayresultinfragmentationacrossawarenessaroundkeythemeswillcontributethecriticalmineralvaluechainforESGfactors,toamorecomprehensiveunderstandingofthesuchasgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions,landoveralllandscapeandraisetheurgencytotakeuseandpollution,waterusageandcontamination,meaningfulaction.biodiversitylossandthepromotionofequalityand4ThemesforcollaborativeactionSMEThasprioritizedthemesforactiontofacilitateglobalcollaboration.TheSMETcommunityidentifiedkeythemesfordiscrepanciesthroughmoderateddialogue.Manyactionfromexpertinterviewsandconsultationswithoftheseforumsalreadyexist.Forinstance,thepublicandprivatestakeholdersfromthecriticalEuropeanRawMaterialsAlliance(ERMA)9bringsmineralsvaluechains.Assessedwithrespecttotheirtogetherstakeholdersfromindustry,academiacoveragebyexistinginitiativesandtheirimportanceandgovernmenttoanalysepoliciesandtoinfacilitatingthemineralstransition,thefivehighest-developrecommendationsforthesecurityofthescoringthemesforcollaborativeactiontoimprovestakeholders’accesstorawmaterials.Similarly,theuponthecoverageofexistinginitiativesare:InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)hasconvenedmembersforitsCollaborativeFramework1.Facilitatepolicydialogue:SupportanonCriticalMaterialsfortheEnergyTransition.10enablingenvironmentforpolicydialogueamongstakeholdersandsignpostpolicyforbusinessesPolicysignpostscanprovideincreasedvisibilitytoreduceroadblockstotheavailabilityoftoinvestors,reducingfrictionsinthemarketbymineralsneededfortheenergytransition.guidingbusinessesthroughanevolvingregulatorylandscape.Thesesignpostsrefertoindicatorsor2.Supportinvestmentmobilization:Understandsignalsthatsuggestthedirectionofgovernmentinvestmentneedsacrossthecriticalmineralspolicyoncriticalminerals.Investorscanusethesevaluechainsandmobilizeinvestmenttobridgetomonitorandpredicttheimplicationsofnewthesupply-demandgap.regulations,whichmayreducepolicy-inducedmarketfluctuations.Focusgroupdiscussions3.Accelerateinnovation:Spurprivate-sectorinvolvingrepresentativesfrombothprivateandinnovationbyidentifyingnewtechnologiesandpublicsectororganizationsareausefultool,systematicinnovationsforscalingup.aidingbusinessesinnavigatingcomplexpolicyenvironmentsmoreeffectively.Regularnewsletters4.EvaluategapsincurrentESGstandards:andothercommunicationtoolscankeepStreamlineexistingESGframeworksbybusinessesupdatedonrecentpolicydevelopmentsconnectingvoluntarystandardsgroupswithandimplications.internationalstandardsbodies.Finally,effortstode-riskapprovalsandgovernance5.Buildskillsacrossthevaluechain:Analyseinminingprojectscanimprovethesupplyofgapsandopportunitiesintheneedsforskillscriticalminerals.Bestpracticescanbeappliedandbuildcapabilitiesacrossthevaluechain.tostreamlinepermitandapprovalprocesses.Additionally,cleargovernanceguidancespecificFacilitatepolicydialoguetominingprojectscanbeestablished,outliningrolesandresponsibilitiesforallstakeholders.SuchPolicyanalysiscanfacilitatedialoguebyprovidingmeasurescanensurecompliancewithregulations,stakeholderswiththeevidenceandinsightstheysocialresponsibilitiesandsafetystandards,whileneedtomakeinformeddecisions.Taxonomiesofferreducingconflictsanddisruptions.afoundationforanalysisbytrackingandorganizingregionalpoliciesbasedontheirpurpose,methodandSupportinvestmentmobilizationoutcomes.Whilemuchhasbeendonetofacilitatepolicyanalysisatagloballevel,suchastheIEA’sCurrentinvestmentformanycriticalmineralsfallsCriticalMineralPolicyTracker,8moreisneededattheshortofwhatisneededtosupportanacceleratedregionalleveltoaddresslocalizedsupplyrisks.deploymentofemissionsreductiontechnologies.ThelackofinformationonriskscandissuadeOpenpolicydialoguecanfacilitateconversationsinvestmentsintocriticalminerals’valuechains.betweenthepublicandprivatesectorsontheFurther,thelong-termnatureofmininginvestments,bestpracticesforsecuringaccesstocriticaloftenrequiringadecadeforreturns,maybeminerals.Regionalforumscanalsoprovideaincompatiblewiththeshort-termfocusoffinancialvenueforstakeholderstodiscussrisksandpolicymarkets,hinderingprivateinvestmentsinmining.SecuringMineralsfortheEnergyTransition11ThisisespeciallytrueinthelowcommoditypricesAccelerateinnovationenvironment.CollaborativeinitiativestoanalyseinvestmentneedsInnovationisessentialtobridgingtheimpendingandwaysofde-riskinginvestmentsarecrucial.supply-demandgapforcriticalminerals.BusinessesWithouteffortstoscaleupinvestmentanalytics,mustidentifypriorityareas,andthendeployandstakeholdersmaybeunabletoidentifyhowtoamplifytheappropriatetechnologicalandotheroptimallyinvestintechnologyinnovation,recyclingsolutions.Onthedemandside,it’spossibletoandsupplychainresilience.Thecollectiveeffortreducerelianceoncriticalmineralsbyexploringmayincludegapanalysesthatcancomparesupplymineralsubstitutionoptionswithinexistingchainperformanceagainstdemand,identifyareastechnologies,suchasusinglithium-iron-phosphateofimprovementanddeterminehowstakeholdersbatteriesinsteadofnickel-cobalt-aluminumcanallocateresourceseffectively.Further,collectivebatteries.Onthesupplyside,it’spossibletoactioncanreduceandadapttovariouseconomicincreasethesupplyofcriticalmineralsbyinvestingrisksacrossthevaluechaintoensureoptimalinnewtechnologiestoextractmoremineralsfrominvestmentlevels.existingassets.Regionalpublic-privatesectorforumscanhelpIn-depthresearchinpriorityareasforinnovationstakeholdersidentifyinvestmentneeds.Tomobilizecancatalysechange.Criticalityassessmentscanfunds,actorsneedtoensuretheirinvestmentsbeparticularlyimportantfordeterminingwhereareevidence-based,cost-effectiveandalignwithinnovationscanreducevulnerabilitiestosupplytheirpriorities.Investorsandpublicorganizationsdisruptionsorwherecriticalmineralscanbecanuseforumstoencourageknowledge-sharingusedtoreduceenvironmentalandsocialimpactsthatidentifieslocalizedsupplyrisks.Forexample,associatedwiththeirextractionanduse.TheseInvestinginAfricanMiningIndaba11convenesassessmentscanidentifypriorityareasandinformannuallytodiscussAfricanmining,includingsupplyfundingforinnovationresearch,developmentandchainandlocalizedrisks,andprovidesavenueimplementation.forinnovatorsandstakeholderstosecurefundingandtoformnewpartnershipstounlockpotentialItisnecessarytoprioritizeinnovationsandinvestableprojects.Similarforumscanenableadvancementsacrossthevaluechainforthestakeholderstoidentifyinvestmentopportunitiesbenefitofallstakeholders.Furtherresearchandthatbridgethegapbetweensupplyanddemanddevelopment(R&D)isneededinpriorityareastothroughimprovementsinexploration,recycling,identifyopportunitiesforincreasingthesupplysupplydiversification,innovationandstockpiling.ofcriticalmineralsandreducingthedemandforemissions-reductiontechnologies.WorkinggroupswithkeyprivateandpublicsectorplayerscanalsoensurethatinvestmentrisksdoFormoreadvancedinnovations,public-privatenotdiminishthereturnsoninvestmentsorlimitpartnerships(PPPs)canbeusedtoscaleupaccesstofinancing.Economicrisksandinformationfinancing,andcanbeparticularlybeneficialwhenasymmetrycanleadtoalowerthanefficientlevelscalinguplarge-scaleprojects.Forexample,theofinvestment.ThiscanreducetheincentivestoMiningInnovationCommercializationAcceleratorinvestin,forexample,innovativetechnologiesthatNetwork12isagovernment-backedinitiativethatincreasethesupplyofacriticalmineral.supportsinnovations,suchasCopperDestiny’s13greenadditivethatreducescapitalexpenditureandCross-collaborationsbetweencompaniesacrosspowerusageinthecopperleachingprocess.thecriticalmineralsvaluechainsandbetweenpolicy-makersandprivateorganizationscanIndustryleaderscanamplifyinnovationstoexpeditedeviseriskmanagementstrategiesthatreduceuptakeandcreatesynergies.Byconnectingandadapttoeconomicrisks.Instrumentssuchinnovatorswithestablishedplayersinthefield,asblendedpublic-privatefinancecanbeusedcollaborationscanbefosteredthatleveragetoreducetheriskstakenbytheprivatesectorexistingexpertiseandresources.Thiscanbeandincreaseincentivestoinvestinchallengingfacilitatedthroughregionalinnovationforumsandmarkets.Transparencyandriskreductioncanfocusgroupsthatconnectpublicandprivateenableinvestorstocreatefinancialinstrumentstoplayers,enablingthemtocollaborateoninnovationmakeinvestmenteasierandincentivizelong-termactivitiesandbuildpartnershipsinvaluechains.investmentsinmineralexplorationandmining.ThisTheseforumscancreateaspaceforinnovatorstocanscaleupfinanceandbridgethecriticalgapshowcasetheirsolutions,attractinvestmentandbetweenthedemandandsupplyofminerals.forgerelationshipsthatcanstreamlinethetransitiontosustainablecriticalminerals.SecuringMineralsfortheEnergyTransition12ConclusionTheenergytransitionisessentialtoachievingaTheWorldEconomicForum’sglobalconveningsustainablefuture,butitisalsofraughtwithriskspowerisauniqueassetthatcansignificantlyofasupplyshortfallofcriticalminerals.Theseacceleratecollaborativeactionforhigh-priorityriskrisksmustbeidentifiedandunderstoodacrossmanagementstrategiesforcriticalminerals.Bythepolitical,economic,social,technologicalandbringingtogetherstakeholdersthroughoutthevalueenvironmentaldimensions.chainandleveragingitsknowledgepartnerships,theForumcanpropelthetransitiontomorePublic,privateandgovernmentalentitiescansustainableandequitablemineralsvaluechainscollaboratetoraiseawarenessofthecriticaltothebenefitofnotonlystakeholdersbutalsomineralssupply-demanddisparity,diagnosesecondarybusinesses,consumers,governmentsrisksthroughoutthevaluechainanddevelopandthenaturalenvironment.holisticriskmanagementstrategiesthataddressresourceintensity,investment,datatransparency,localvalue-add,policydesign,innovation,ESGstandardsandapprovalprocesses.Collaborationiskey,andthisreporthasoutlinedvariousapproachestofacilitateit.SecuringMineralsfortheEnergyTransition13ContributorsTheWorldEconomicForumacknowledgesandthanksthefollowingexperts,withoutwhoseguidancethisreportwouldnothavebeenpossible.However,thereportdoesnotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofthesecompaniesandindividuals.Expertadviceispurelyconsultativeinnatureanddoesnotimplyanyassociationwiththetakeawaysorconclusionspresentedwithinthisreport.MohsinAliSofianeKhatibLeadGeologist,Exploration,MariPetroleum,StrategicAdviser,TrafiguraGroup,SwitzerlandPakistanTae-YoonKimAyedHamoudAl-MutairiSeniorEnergyAnalyst,CriticalMineralsLead,SeniorVicePresident,CorporateStrategyandInternationalEnergyAgency,FranceCorporateAffairs,SaudiArabianMiningCompany(Ma’aden),SaudiArabiaVirginiaIrwinKlausmeierPresidentandChiefExecutiveOfficer,Sylvatex,EkaterinaAutetUSASeniorInvestmentOfficer,Metals&Mining,InternationalFinanceCorporation,USASophieLuGlobalHeadofHeavyIndustryDecarbonisation,MuhammadAzeemHSBCHoldings,UnitedKingdomManagerJointVentures,BDC,MariPetroleum,PakistanMartinaLyonsProgrammeOfficer-InnovationandEndUseGrégoireBelloisSectors,IRENA,GermanyIntergovernmentalForumonMining,Minerals,MetalsandSustainableDevelopment,SwitzerlandVeronicaNavasOspinaSeniorEconomist,InternationalFinanceDamianBrettCorporation,USASeniorMiningSpecialist,WorldBank,USAMariaTeresaPisaniEricBuissonEconomicAffairsOfficer,EconomicCooperationCriticalMineralsAnalyst,InternationalEnergyandTradeDivision,UnitedNationsEconomicAgency,FranceCommissionforEurope(UNECE),SwitzerlandJordyLeeCalderonMargeryRyanResearchAssociate,ColoradoSchoolofMines,MarketResearchManager,PlatinumGroupMetals,USAJohnsonMatthey,UnitedKingdomAnaElenaSanchoCalvinoAdrianaUnzuetaSaavedraAssociateDirectoroftheGlobalTradeAlert,St.Consultant,Climate-SmartMiningInitiative,WorldGallenEndowmentforProsperitythroughTrade,Bank,USASwitzerlandMaximilianSchnipperingGillianDavidsonHead,Sustainability,SiemensGamesaRenewableSustainabilityAdvisortotheCEO,EurasianEnergy,SpainResourcesGroup(ERG),LuxembourgMartinStuermerClaireDivverEconomistResearcherattheCommoditiesUnitGlobalHead,CorporateAffairsandSustainability,Department,InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF),TrafiguraGroup,SwitzerlandUSAClareEilbeckHarikrishnanTulsidasHeadofPortfolioStrategy,BHPGroup,AustraliaEconomicAffairsOfficer,UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforEurope(UNECE),GenevaKatieFedosenkoDirector,ESGEngagement,TeckResources,MatthewDavidWittensteinCanadaSectionChief,EnergyDivision,UnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforAsiaandthePacific(ESCAP),ThailandSecuringMineralsfortheEnergyTransition14WorldEconomicForumMcKinsey&CompanyTatianaAguilarPatriciaBingotoManager,MiningandMetalsIndustrySeniorExpertGlobalMaterialsPractice,SwitzerlandLucianaGutmannNeilFrankProjectFellow,SecuringMineralsfortheEnergyKnowledgeSpecialist,UnitedKingdomTransitionAgnieszkaKaminskaEspenMehlumKnowledgeSpecialist,UnitedKingdomHeadofEnergyTransitionIntelligenceandRegionalAccelerationAlexKazaglisPartner,UnitedKingdomTanyaMadanKnowledgeAnalyst,UnitedKingdomLadislavTvaruzekKnowledgeSpecialist,UnitedKingdomMichelVanHoeySeniorPartner,LuxembourgAliceVandermostenSeniorKnowledgeAnalyst,UnitedKingdomSecuringMineralsfortheEnergyTransition15Endnotes1.McKinsey&Company,McKinseyBasicMaterialsInsights,2023.2.IEA,CriticalMineralsmarketReview2023,2023.3.ThePESTELframeworkincludesthelegaldimension,thoughthelatteriscurrentlynotcoveredforriskcharacterization.4.ThecreationofsecondarymarketsforcriticalmineralsisatthecentreofanotherWorldEconomicForum-McKinseyknowledgecollaboration:theCircularityintheBuiltEnvironmentinitiative.Thisinitiativeexploresavenuestoclosematerialandmineralloopsandloweremissionsthroughcircularsolutionswhileinvestigatingcross-industryopportunitiesandbusinessmodels.5.Challengingmarketconditionsrefertolessinstitutionalorregulatorysupportoncriticalmineraltopics.6.IMF,WorldEconomicOutlook,NavigatingGlobalDivergences-Chapter3:FragmentationandCommodityMarkets:VulnerabilitiesandRisks,October2023.7.Somepublic-privatecollaborativeinitiativesarealreadymakingadifference.Forinstance,theWorldBank’sClimateSmartMiningInitiativeservesasaplatformforprovidingtechnicalassistanceandforsupportinginvestmentsinresource-richdevelopingcountriestoachievelow-carbonandresponsiblesourcing.TheGlobalBatteryAllianceisacollaborationacrossthebattery-automotivevaluechaintoachievegoalsinrelationtocircularity,sustainabilityandresponsiblesourcing.Despitetheexistinginitiativesonminerals,thereisstillaneedforglobal-levelactiontofosterdialogue,unifyefforts,addresscriticalmineralchallengesandensurestablesupplywhilemitigatingregionalimbalances.8.IEA,CriticalMineralsPolicyTracker,2023,https://www.iea.org/reports/critical-minerals-policy-tracker/key-findings.9.EuropeanRawMaterialsAlliance,AboutERMA,2022,https://erma.eu/about-us/.10.IRENA,CollaborativeFrameworkonCriticalMaterialsfortheEnergyTransition,2022,https://www.irena.org/How-we-work/Collaborative-frameworks/Critical-materials.11.InvestinginAfricanMiningIndaba,InvestinginAfricanMiningIndaba,2023,https://miningindaba.com/home.12.MiningInnovationCommercializationAcceleratorNetwork,October2023Newsletter,https://micanetwork.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/MICA-Newsletter-October-2023.pdf.13.DestinyCopper,CleanTech,2023,https://www.destinycopper.com/cleantech/.SecuringMineralsfortheEnergyTransition16TheWorldEconomicForum,committedtoimprovingthestateoftheworld,istheInternationalOrganizationforPublic-PrivateCooperation.TheForumengagestheforemostpolitical,businessandotherleadersofsocietytoshapeglobal,regionalandindustryagendas.WorldEconomicForum91–93routedelaCapiteCH-1223Cologny/GenevaSwitzerlandTel.:+41(0)228691212Fax:+41(0)227862744contact@weforum.orgwww.weforum.org

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