分布式光伏项目收益分析测算工具VIP专享VIP免费

序号说明项基础说明1组件衰减多晶电池组件和单晶电池组件衰减率第1年内不高于2.5%和3%,首年衰减已经包2峰值日照小时数对于分布式电站,除西北地区,采用Meteonorm气象数据水泥混凝土屋面:固定倾角安装方式,PR在75%-80%之间,各地年均PR略有差别3首年系统效率彩钢瓦屋面:顺着屋面平铺安装方式,倾角5度以内,灰尘污垢带来全年发电量损包括日常限电、意外停电、维修停电、设备故障、并网容量不足、发电权交易等造4电量损失率电站折旧年限20年,残值率5%5电站折旧资本金占总投资额的30%,银行贷款比例70%,银行长期贷款利率为7.5%,贷款6投资比例对于彩钢瓦屋面,在光伏电站生命周期内存在一次拆装费用,包括组件的拆卸和重7新增组件拆卸和安装费分布式电站运维费用暂定:该地区新投资项目,运维费按0.04元/瓦测算,本区域8运维费用企业用电单价根据自发自用和余电上网比例计算综合售电电价(含税,不含补贴)9电价计算%和3%,首年衰减已经包含在首年效率中,从第二年开始次年的衰减率不超过0.7%-0.8%,暂按0.7%之间,各地年均PR略有差别,根据中康运维经验,暂设80%;既有水泥又有彩钢瓦的,按加权效率灰尘污垢带来全年发电量损失至少5%左右,根据中康运维经验,暂设78%容量不足、发电权交易等造成的电量损失(或收入损失倒折成电量损失),暂设1%期贷款利率为7.5%,贷款年限5年费用,包括组件的拆卸和重新安装费、管理费等,单价暂按0.25元/瓦计算。在表格“现金流动”第32行,第10年中一次性加入此费用按0.04元/瓦测算,本区域内已有项目,再次新建项目,按0.03元/瓦测算电电价(含税,不含补贴),自发自用电价根据当地峰平谷工业电价平均值计算中一次性加入此费用项目收益率及修正现金流测算表项目类型:自发自用余电上网项目地址:光照资源:类地区售电给企业部分售电给电网部分投资年限20年商业模式(EMC)(PPA)项目净资产收益率ROE21%项目内部收益率ProjectIRR12.08%系统20年20年股本内部收益率EquityIRR14.36%日平均峰值小时数(Meteonorm)(小时/天)NPV(折现率7%时)1,321,699自发自用比例/余电上网比例3.303.30正常用电工作日天数“修正现金流”出现盈余的年度70%30%(即股东开始分红年份)1出现错误时,在公式尾部输365365Ctrl+Shift+Enter年峰值日照小时数(Meteonorm)(小时)843361.35电站规模(MW)系统损耗率22%22%规模(MW)第1年电量产出(kWh)1.001.00有效发电小时数(h)65828220年年均发电量(kWh)930,115939,51020年总发电量(kWh)854,719模组年损耗率-第1年/每年17,094,384售电价格0.81模组年损耗率-第2-20年/每年2.50%一、EMC部分85%电量损失率0.70%当地工业电价峰谷平加权值:0.6852折扣比例0.0%1%EMC电价工业电价年递增率系统3.33二、PPA部分0.3910日平均峰值小时数(Meteonorm)(小时/天365光伏上网电价(当地脱硫煤标杆电价)0.0%)1,215上网电价年递增率发电天数22%年峰值日照小时数(Meteonorm)(小时)940水泥20%,彩钢瓦22%;两者皆有,按加权系统损耗率有效发电小时数20国家补贴0.080.5电站折旧年限5.0%省级补贴(如有,请填写,并需在“现金流动00”表中9-11行、18-20行中更改补贴电价最长残值率时限)市级补贴(同上)00县级补贴及其他补贴(同上)00建置成本国家补贴时间2020EPC成本(含外线)3.80县级补贴时间路条开发费用(含总部开发机构成本)0.20市级补贴时间融资成本0.00开发成本0.00建置成本(元/瓦)4.00初步测算时,总建置成本按4元注:电量损失率包括日常限电、意外停电、维修停电、工厂休假、设备故障、并网容量不足、发电权交易等造成的电量损失(或收入损失倒折成电量损失),需根据对当地预测的情况输入损失比率。与系统损耗率不是一回事。总投资额4,000,000406,838政府一次性补贴030%实际投资70%资本金(自有资金)4,000,000银行长期贷款1,200,000贷款期限长短及偿还方式对修正现金流长期贷款利率2,800,000影响较大。长期贷款期限7.50%5运营维护成本厂房实际面积(m²)15000租金(元/m²)0屋顶(土地)租赁费(元)0屋顶维护费或光伏设备拆装费(第10年)250000单价(元/W)0.25运维费用(80%递增部分)12,0003.0%运维费用(20%非递增部分)8,0000.0%保险费用00.030%人工费用(80%递增部分)20,0003.0%运维费用合计40,000单价(元/W)0.0420年所得税(RMB)1,247,947所得税率(%)25%增值税抵扣520,00013%需要填入结果增值税附加税10%增值税率17%利润表-2.50%-0.70%-0.70%-0.70%-0.70%-0.70%-0.70%-0.70%-0.70%-0.70%-0.70%234567891011总计0196.80%96.10%95.40%94.70%94.00%93.30%92.60%91.90%91.20%90.50%11,966,06997.50%636,612632,008627,405622,801618,198613,594608,990604,387599,783595,180一、与企业(EMC)0.68529,065,198657,65799%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%电量产出0.08005,128,31599%发电比例(扣除电量损失率)0.00000.6850.6850.6850.6850.6850.6850.6850.6850.6850.685售电电价0.00004,523,6360.6850.0800.0800.0800.0800.0800.0800.0800.0800.0800.080国家补贴0.000017,094,3840.0800.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000省级补贴13,588,8330.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000市级补贴0.39100.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000县级补贴0.500000.000482,281478,794475,306471,819468,331464,844461,356457,868454,381450,893售电收入(含税)0.00000498,225二、与电网(PPA)0.0000-1,974,446272,834270,861268,888266,915264,942262,969260,996259,023257,050255,077电量产出0.000011,614,387281,85399%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%发电比例(扣除电量损失率)099%上网电价收入-250,0000.3910.3910.3910.3910.3910.3910.3910.3910.3910.391国家补贴-322,4440.3910.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.500省级补贴-160,0000.5000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000市级补贴00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000县级补贴-537,4070.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000售电收入(含税)-145,4450.000240,664238,924237,183235,443233,703231,962230,222228,482226,741225,00110,199,091248,620总电量产出额-3,306,000909,446902,869896,293889,716883,139876,563869,986863,410856,833850,257总售电收入(含税)6,893,091939,510722,945717,717712,490707,262702,034696,806691,578686,350681,122675,894-630,000746,8446,263,091-105,043-104,284-103,524-102,765-102,005-101,245-100,486-99,726-98,966-98,207四、增值税(在收入中扣除)-1,247,947-108,5165,015,144617,902613,434608,965604,497600,029595,561591,092586,624582,156577,687(1)不含税营业收入0638,32912%0000000000屋顶(土地)租赁费用0-250,000屋顶维护费或光伏设备拆装费-12,360-12,731-13,113-13,506-13,911-14,329-14,758-15,201-16,127运维费用(80%递增部分)10%-12,000-8,000-8,000-8,000-8,000-8,000-8,000-8,000-8,000-15,657-8,000运维费用(20%非递增部分)-8,00000000-8,0000保险费用50,087.2700000人工费用25%-20,600-21,218-21,855-22,510-23,185-23,881-24,597-25,335-26,878增值税附加税15%-20,00000-10,200-10,125-10,049-9,973-26,095-9,82100-413-9,897(2)息税折旧前利润576,942571,485544,732539,226533,688528,115516,861598,329565,998560,068272,506年折旧额-165,300-165,300-165,300-165,300-165,300-165,300-165,300-165,300-165,300-165,300-165,300(3)息税前利润411,642406,185379,432373,926368,388362,815351,5610433,029400,698394,768107,206利息-168,000-126,000000000-210,000-84,000-42,0000(4)税前利润243,642280,185379,432373,926368,388362,815351,5610223,029316,698352,768107,206所得税243,642280,185-47,429-93,482-92,097-90,704-87,8900-39,587-44,096-26,802(4)净利润39.4%45.7%332,003280,445276,291272,111263,6710223,0293,834,7003,669,400277,111308,67280,405收入净利润率1,150,4101,100,82055.3%47.1%46.7%46.4%45.6%固定资产34.9%45.5%51.1%3,173,5003,008,2002,842,9002,677,60013.8%2,347,000股本4,000,0006%8%3,504,1003,338,8002,512,300ROA1,200,0001,051,2301,001,640952,050902,460852,870803,280704,10010%9%10%10%753,69011%6%8%9%3%ROE21%19%20%23%23%26%28%23%23%23%7%22%发电成本0.386电站残值189,7500.440.410.370.370.330.300.360.360.360.590.3700010,5005,250000000734,844710,585704,987659,790653,791742,698690,241685,208680,171737,630670,084现金流量表25%6,893,091-28,00028,60029,21840,35544,436245,396244,496243,617242,760491,925241,113520,00001234567891011项目现金流25%息税前利润-1,263,697-4,000,000433,029411,642406,185400,698394,768379,432373,926368,388362,815107,206351,561增值税抵扣53,306,000-4,000,000108,516105,043104,284103,52498,633000000(-)企业所得税7.50%-4,000,000-4,000,000-50,087-49,346(+)折旧4005,455,394165,300165,300165,300165,300-47,429-93,482-92,097-90,704-26,802-87,890(-)初始资本支出272165,300165,300165,300165,300165,300165,300165,300项目现金流78512.08%4,000,000706,844681,985675,769619,435累计项目现金流6.47-4,000,000-3,293,156-2,611,170-1,935,402-1,315,967609,355497,303445,745441,591437,411245,705428,971-706,612-209,309236,435678,0261,115,4371,361,1421,790,113项目内部收益率240,681-630,685542,940480,025392,600344,598250,930200,681177,390项目回收期630,685542,940480,025392,600344,598250,930200,681177,390156,77978,578122,4066,893,0910630,685542,940480,025392,600344,598250,930200,681177,390156,77978,578122,406股东现金流520,0000636,797553,515494,116408,041361,622265,878214,697191,618156,77978,578122,406息税前利润-630,000170,99586,533136,105增值税抵扣-1,200,00012345678(-)利息-1,247,947-1,200,000433,029411,642406,185400,698394,768379,432373,926368,38891011(-)企业所得税3,306,000-1,200,000108,516105,043104,284103,524362,815107,206351,561(+)折旧-4,000,000-210,000-168,000-126,000-84,00098,633000(-)初始资本支出4,841,144-39,587-42,000000000权益现金流000165,300-44,096-47,429-93,482-92,097000累计项目现金流14.36%165,300165,300165,300-560,000165,300165,300165,300165,300-90,704-26,802-87,890股本内部收益率8.86-560,000-560,000-560,000-14,065-560,000000165,300165,300165,300股本回收期-63,156-46,015-10,231-1,333,46712,605497,303445,745441,591000-1,263,156-1,309,170-1,319,402-1,320,862-823,559-377,81563,776437,411245,705428,971银行还贷:4501,187746,8921,175,863231,120,0005期初余额012,240,0001,680,000560,00067891011偿还本金560,000560,000000000偿还利息2,800,000560,000560,00084,000000000期末余额168,000126,000560,00042,0000000002,800,000560,0001,680,0001,120,0000000000发电量630,000896,293节约标煤(吨)560,000210,000909,446902,869359889,716883,139876,563869,986863,410856,833850,257碳364361244356353351348345343340二氧化碳17,094,3842,240,0002472467042422402382372352332316,8387147096986936886836786736674,650939,51037613,419256738-0.70%-0.70%-0.70%-0.70%-0.70%-0.70%-0.70%-0.70%-0.70%12131415161718192089.80%89.10%88.40%87.70%87.00%86.30%85.60%84.90%84.20%590,576585,972581,369576,765572,162567,558562,954558,351553,74799%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%0.6850.6850.6850.6850.6850.6850.6850.6850.6850.0800.0800.0800.0800.0800.0800.0800.0800.0800.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000447,406443,918440,431436,943433,455429,968426,480422,993419,505253,104251,131249,158247,185245,212243,239241,266239,293237,32099%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%0.3910.3910.3910.3910.3910.3910.3910.3910.3910.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000223,261221,520219,780218,039216,299214,559212,818211,078209,338843,680837,103830,527823,950817,374810,797804,221797,644791,067670,666665,438660,210654,983649,755644,527639,299634,071628,843-97,447-96,688-95,928-95,168-94,409-93,649-92,890-92,130-91,370573,219568,751564,282559,814555,346550,878546,409541,941537,473000000000-16,611-17,109-17,622-18,151-18,696-19,256-19,834-20,429-21,042-8,000-8,000-8,000-8,000-8,000-8,000-8,000-8,000-8,000000000000-27,685-28,515-29,371-30,252-31,159-32,094-33,057-34,049-35,070-9,745-9,669-9,593-9,517-9,441-9,365-9,289-9,213-9,137511,179505,458499,697493,894488,050482,162476,229470,250464,223-165,300-165,300-165,300-165,300-165,300-165,300-165,300-165,300-165,300345,879340,158334,397328,594322,750316,862310,929304,950298,923000000000345,879340,158334,397328,594322,750316,862310,929304,950298,923-86,470-85,039-83,599-82,149-80,687-79,215-77,732-76,238-74,731259,409255,118250,797246,446242,062237,646233,197228,713224,19345.3%44.9%44.4%44.0%43.6%43.1%42.7%42.2%41.7%2,181,7002,016,4001,851,1001,685,8001,520,5001,355,2001,189,9001,024,600859,300257,790654,510604,920555,330505,740456,150406,560356,970307,38012%13%14%15%16%18%20%22%26%22%21%21%21%20%20%19%19%19%0.370.370.380.380.380.390.390.390.40000174,000665,033659,977654,917240,324239,559238,819151617181920121314328,594322,750316,862310,929304,950298,923345,879340,158334,397000000000-82,149-80,687-79,215-77,732-76,238-74,731165,300165,300165,300165,300165,300165,300-86,470-85,039-83,599165,300165,300165,300411,746407,362402,946398,497394,013389,4933,463,0833,870,4464,273,3924,671,8895,065,9025,455,394424,709420,418416,0972,214,8222,635,2403,051,33774,46665,73558,01751,19445,16439,83574,46665,73558,01751,19445,16439,835108,13295,50684,34074,46665,73558,01751,19445,16439,835108,13295,50684,34086,05776,70368,35360,89954,24748,310108,13295,50684,340121,399108,26496,532151617181920328,594322,750316,862310,929304,950298,923121314345,879340,158334,397000000000000000-82,149-80,687-79,215-77,732-76,238-74,731000165,300165,300165,300165,300165,300165,300-86,470-85,039-83,599000000165,300165,300165,300411,746407,362402,946398,497394,013389,4930002,848,8333,256,1963,659,1424,057,6394,451,6524,841,144424,709420,418416,0971,600,5722,020,9902,437,08712131415161718192000000000000000000000000000000000843,680837,103830,527823,950817,374810,797804,2210033733533233032732432222922822622422222121900662657652647642636631797,644791,067319316217215626621运营年份假设条件12应收账款(含增值税)746,844722,945电网/企业结算国家补贴555,241537,473省市县补贴465,057450,176--实际收款国补回款速度一般在当季兑1,020,298987,649现,省市补假设延迟一年付现运维费用(含地方税费)-40,000-40,960付现财务费用(利率源自基础7.50%-210,000-168,000数据!C45)缴纳所得税00缴纳增值税00净现金流量770,298778,689归还银行本金-560,000-560,000资金盈缺(负数代表缺口)210,298218,689资金盈缺(累计)210,298428,987出现资金缺口时修正现金流数据:新增短期流动资金贷款假设出现资金缺口时需在当0年年初做一年期流贷,逐年0偿还流动资金贷款本金滚动0偿还新增流贷利息(5%~010%)假设上一年流贷在第二年年0减少缴纳所得税647,675修正后净现金流初偿还,借新债还旧债647,675分红派息6.00%0新增利息产生的减税效应0有流贷年度的现金余值视为0420,596假设在不做流贷的年度开始420,596对股东进行分红34567717,717712,490707,262702,034696,806533,586529,700525,813521,926518,040446,920443,665440,409437,154433,899-966,222959,080951,938980,507973,364-55,297-56,334-44,42900-41,949-42,967-47,429-93,482-42,000-102,005-101,245-126,000-84,000754,349700,877-44,096000-39,587-4,132754,349700,87700831,5651,954,2692,655,146812,558806,810-560,000271,56500-560,000-560,0001,199,92000252,558246,81000681,544928,354002,708,6183,356,0230002,708,6183,356,0230000000934,10200934,1021,175,1641,471,4851,175,1641,471,48589101112691,578686,350681,122675,894670,666514,153510,266506,380502,493498,606430,643427,388424,132420,877417,622944,796937,654930,512923,370916,228-57,405-58,509-309,649-60,826-62,04000000-92,097-90,704-26,802-87,890-86,470-100,486-99,726-98,966-98,207-97,447694,809688,715495,095676,447670,27100000694,809688,715495,095676,447670,2713,349,9554,038,6704,533,7655,210,2115,880,482000000000000000000004,044,7644,727,3855,028,8595,886,6586,550,7524,044,7644,727,3855,028,8595,886,6586,550,7521314151617665,438660,210654,983649,755644,527494,719490,833486,946483,059479,173414,366411,111407,855404,600401,345909,086901,944894,801887,659880,517-63,293-64,586-65,920-67,296-68,71600000-85,039-83,599-82,149-80,687-79,215-96,688-95,928-95,168-94,409-93,649664,066657,831651,565645,267638,93700000664,066657,831651,565645,267638,9376,544,5477,202,3787,853,9438,499,2109,138,147000000000000000008,505,507007,208,6137,860,2088,505,5079,144,4779,777,0847,208,6137,860,2089,144,4779,777,084181920639,299634,071628,843475,286471,399467,513398,089394,834391,578873,375866,233859,091-70,180-71,691-73,249000-77,732-76,238-74,731-92,890-92,130-91,370632,573626,175619,741000632,573626,175619,7419,770,72010,396,89511,016,63600000000000010,403,29311,023,07011,636,37610,403,29311,023,07011,636,376012,总计012TotalEMC部分售电收入(含各级补贴)17.0%498,225482,281PPA部分增值税17%4,523,63672,39270,075提取增值税后收入657,280425,833412,206售电收入(含各级补贴)3,866,355增值税1,974,446248,620240,664提取增值税后收入36,12434,968520,000520,000212,495205,6961,454,446售电所含增值税108,516105,043累加213,559-108,516105,043设备税可抵扣增值税0108,516增值税可抵扣-实付增值税--34567893456789478,794475,306471,819468,331464,844461,356457,86869,56869,06268,55568,04867,54167,03566,528409,226406,245403,264400,283397,302394,321391,341238,924237,183235,443233,703231,962230,222228,48234,71534,46334,21033,95733,70433,45133,198204,208202,721201,233199,746198,258196,771195,283104,284103,524102,765102,005101,245100,48699,726317,843421,367524,132626,136727,382827,867927,593104,284103,52498,633------4,132102,005101,245100,48699,7261011121314151610111213141516454,381450,893447,406443,918440,431436,943433,45566,02165,51465,00864,50163,99463,48762,981388,360385,379382,398379,417376,436373,456370,475226,741225,001223,261221,520219,780218,039216,29932,94532,69232,44032,18731,93431,68131,428193,796192,308190,821189,333187,846186,359184,87198,96698,20797,44796,68895,92895,16894,4091,026,5601,124,7671,222,2141,318,9021,414,8301,509,9981,604,407-------98,96698,20797,44796,68895,92895,16894,4091718192017181920429,968426,480422,993419,50562,47461,96761,46060,954367,494364,513361,532358,551214,559212,818211,078209,33831,17530,92230,66930,417183,384181,896180,409178,92193,64992,89092,13091,3701,698,0561,790,9461,883,0761,974,446----93,64992,89092,13091,370分布式项目收益率测算汇总表基本测算条件规模(MW)1.00企业消纳及电价系统损耗率22%首年发电小时数940收益率建置成本(元/W)年均发电量(万度)4.00运维成本(元/W)85.47企业消纳比例0.04企业用电综合电价电价折扣70%脱硫煤标杆电价0.8062项目内部收益率股本内部收益率85%净资产收益率0.391012.08%14.36%20.90%

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