碳中和导向下CO2排放达峰及“十四五”规划PeakingofCO2emissionandthe14thFive-YearPlanundercarbonneutrality清华大学何建坤2020.12.10能源基金会TsinghuaUniversityHeJiankun10Dec.20202020.12.10.能源基金会1.习近平主席在联合国大会重要讲话，提出中国强化2030年自主贡献（NDC）目标和长期碳中和目标PresidentXiJinpingdeliveredanimportantaddressattheUNGeneralAssembly,proposingthatChinawillenhanceits2030NationallyDeterminedContribution(NDC)andlong-termcarbonneutralitygoalp确立“力争2030年前CO2排放达峰，努力争取2060年前实现碳中和”的目标，对国内疫情后加速绿色低碳转型和长期低碳发展战略的实施，以及推进全球气候治理进程都将发挥重要指引作用。China'stargetsofthepeakingofCO2emissionsbefore2030andachievingcarbonneutralitybefore2060willplayanimportantroleinacceleratingthecountry’spost-pandemicgreenlow-carbontransitionandtheimplementationoflong-termlow-carbonstrategiesaswellasfacilitatingtheprocessofglobalclimategovernance.n对内推进目标导向下紧迫的低碳转型，成为国家现代化建设的重要目标和生态文明建设的核心内容。Promotingthemuch-neededlow-carbontransitionathomehasbecomeanimportanttargetofsocialistmodernizationintheneweraandisatthecoreofbuildinganecologicalcivilization.n国际上提振各方应对气候变化信心和行动意愿，引领全球经济技术变革潮流。Internationally,China’spledgewillboosttheconfidenceandwillingnesstoactagainstclimatechange,andleadglobaleconomicandtechnologicaltransformation.2020.12.10.能源基金会p第一阶段：2030年之前实现CO2排放达峰。Step1:StrivingtoachievethepeakingofCO2emissionsbefore2030.n中国NDC目标：CO2排放2030年左右达到峰值并努力早日达峰。China’sNDCtarget:Toachievethepeakingofcarbondioxideemissionsaround2030andmakingbesteffortstopeakearly.n中国仍处于工业化、城镇化发展阶段，随经济较快增长，能源消费和CO2排放仍会有所增长。Chinaisstillinthestageofindustrializationandurbanization.Withtherapideconomicgrowth,energyconsumptionandCO2emissionswillstillincrease.n力争早日实现CO2排放达峰，首先要控制和减少CO2排放增量，使经济增长和CO2排放脱钩。TopeakCO2emissions,theincreaseinCO2emissionsshallbefirstlycontrolledandreducedtodecoupleeconomicgrowthfromCO2emissions.n以国内2020~2035年现代化建设第一阶段基本实现现代化、生态环境根本好转、美丽中国建设目标基本实现的目标为指引，强化低碳发展政策导向，落实和强化NDC目标。Guidedbythetargetofrealizingbasicmodernization,fundamentalimprovementoftheecologyandenvironment,andbuildingaBeautifulChinainthefirststageofdomesticmodernizationconstructionfrom2020to2035,thepolicyorientationoflow-carbondevelopmentshallbestrengthenedandtheNDCgoalshallbeimplementedandenhanced.2.远近统筹，进行两个阶段的战略部署(1)Coordinatethefarandthenearandconductatwo-stepstrategicdeployment2020.12.10.能源基金会p第二阶段：2060年之前实现碳中和。Step2:Achievingcarbonneutralitybefore2060n以《巴黎协定》确立的全球长期目标为导向：把全球平均气温升幅控制在工业化前2℃之内，并努力控制在1.5℃之内。Guidedbythegloballong-termgoalestablishedbytheParisAgreement,controltheglobalaveragetemperaturerisetowellbelow2°Cabovepre-industriallevelsandpursueeffortstolimitthetemperatureincreasetobelow1.5°C.n实现“目标”导向下倒逼的能源和经济转型路径，推动能源革命和经济发展方式的根本性变革。Realizethe“target-oriented”energyandeconomictransitionpathwayandpromoteenergyrevolutionandthefundamentaltransformationofeconomicdevelopmentmode.n以中国本世纪中叶现代化强国建设目标为指导，在建成美丽中国的同时，以碳中和目标为导向，实现与全球控制温升低于2℃并努力低于1.5℃目标相契合的深度脱碳发展路径。GuidedbyChina’sgoalofbuildingamodernandpowerfulcountryinthemiddleofthiscenturyandthenewcarbonneutralitypledge,Chinashouldachieveadeepdecarbonizationpathwaythatisconsistentwiththegoalofkeepingtheglobaltemperaturerisebelow2°Candstrivingtokeepitbelow1.5°C,whileensuringtherealizationofthegoalofbuildingaBeautifulChina.2.远近统筹，进行两个阶段的战略部署(2)Coordinatethefarandthenearandconductatwo-stepstrategicdeployment2020.12.10.能源基金会pCO2排放达峰以后，化石能源总体上不再增长，从源头控制了常规污染物来源，是环境质量根本改善重要保障。AfterCO2emissionpeaks,fossilenergywillnotincreaseonthewhole,indicatingacontrolontheoriginofconventionalpollutants,andsecuringafundamentalimprovementofenvironmentalquality.p2030年之后，要实现全部温室气体绝对量快速减排。AveryfastabsolutedeclineinallGHGemissionsneedtobeachievedafter2030.p实现了经济增长与化石能源消费和CO2排放脱钩，这也是基本实现现代化国家的重要标志。ThedecouplingofeconomicgrowthfromfossilenergyconsumptionandCO2emissionmarksthegeneralrealizationofnationalmodernization.3.实现CO2排放达峰，是经济发展方式转变的重要转折点，也是最终实现碳中和的重要节点PeakingofCO2emissionimpliesanimportanttransitionineconomicdevelopmentmodeandamilestoneforcarbonneutrality2020.12.10.能源基金会p降低GDP的CO2强度，抵消经济增长带来的CO2排放增长，实现CO2排放达峰。ReducetheCO2intensityofGDPtooffsettheCO2emissionincrementfromeconomicgrowthandrealizethepeakingofCO2.p大力节能，降低GDP能耗强度，控制能源消费增长。Makinganefforttosaveenergy,reduceenergyintensityofGDP,andcurbenergyconsumptiongrowth.p改善能源结构，降低单位能耗CO2强度，抵消能源消费增长带来的CO2排放增加。Perfectenergymix,andreduceCO2intensityofenergyconsumptiontooffsettheCO2emissionincrementfromenergyconsumptionincrease.4.大幅度降低GDP的CO2强度是保障经济社会持续发展同时推进CO2排放尽早达峰的核心对策，其根本措施是大力节能和加速能源体系低碳化TodecreasetheCO2intensityofGDPisthecoremeasureforbothsustainableeconomicandsocialdevelopmentandthepeakingofCO2emissionasearlyaspossible,andthekeyliesinenergysavingandenergystructuraldecarbonization2020.12.10.能源基金会p经济发展：2020~2035年GDP翻一番，2020~2030年均约为5%。Economicgrowth:GDPdoublesfrom2020to2035andremainsatabout5%from2020to2030.p保持“十三五”节能降碳力度，GDP能源强度年下降率保持不低于3%的水平。Retainthe13thFYPstrengthforenergysavingandcarbonreduction,andkeeptheannualdeclinerateofenergyintensityofGDPatnolessthan3%.n结构节能，产业转型升级，发展数字经济、高新科技产业和现代服务业。Promotestructuralenergysaving,industrialtransformationandupgrading;developdigitaleconomy,high-techindustryandmodernserviceindustry.n技术节能，提高能源转换和利用效率。Promotetechnologicalenergysaving,enhanceenergyconversionanduseefficiency.5.实现2030年前CO2排放达峰情景与对策(1)ScenariosandstrategiesforthepeakingofCO2before20302020.12.10.能源基金会p能源结构改善：非化石能源占比“十四五”达20%，“十五五”达25%，单位能耗CO2强度年下降率“十五五”将提升到1.5%以上，抵消能源消费年均约1.5%增长带来的新增排放。Perfectenergystructure:Non-fossilenergyaccountsfor20%and25%inthe14thand15thFYPperiodsrespectively.RaisetheannualdeclineinCO2intensityofenergyconsumptiontoabove1.5%tooffsettheadditionalemissionsfromenergyconsumptionwhichgrowsbyabout1.5%annually.n风电、太阳能发电每年合计新增装机超过1亿千瓦。Annuallyaddedcapacityofwindpowerandsolarpowertotalsatmorethan100millionKW.pGDP的CO2强度下降：“十四五”达19~20%，“十五五”大于20%，“十五五”期间的CO2强度年下降率将提升到4.5~5.0%的水平，从而实现CO2排放达峰。ReduceCO2intensityofGDP:Thedecreasereaches19~20%inthe14thFYPperiod,andexceeds20%withanannualdecreaseof4.5~5.0%inthe15thFYPperiodforthepeakingofCO2emission.5.实现2030年前CO2排放达峰情景与对策(2)ScenariosandstrategiesforthepeakingofCO2before20302020.12.10.能源基金会p强化“十四五”规划中应对气候变化指标和措施Strengthenaddressingclimatechangetargetsandmeasuresinthe14thFive-YearPlan.p“十四五”规划将受到世界广泛关注，被认为是疫情后全球经济复苏的风向标。The14thFive-YearPlanwillbecloselywatchedbytheworldasabellwetherforglobaleconomicrecoveryfromthepandemic.n中国抗击疫情成功，经济复苏全球起带头作用。China'ssuccessinfightingthepandemicgivesitanopportunitytoleadtheworldineconomicrecovery.n普遍关注中国经济刺激的资金投向和政策导向。期待中国在坚持“绿色复苏，低碳转型”方面发挥引领性作用。TheworldiswatchingtheinvestmentandpoliciesofChina'seconomicstimulus.Chinaisexpectedtoplayaleadingroleinensuringa“greenrecoveryandlow-carbontransition”.p“十四五”确立积极的节能降碳指标。Establishingambitiousenergy-savingandemissionreductiontargetsinthe14thFive-YearPlan.6.“十四五”规划强化节能降碳各项指标和措施(1)Targetsandmeasuresforstrengtheningenergysavingandcarbonreductioninthe14thFYP2020.12.10.能源基金会n非化石能源比重达20%左右，GDP的CO2强度下降19~20%，能源消费总量控制在55亿tce以内，CO2排放总量低于105亿吨。Theshareofnon-fossilenergyreachesabout20%,theCO2intensityofGDPdecreasesby19~20%,totalenergyconsumptioniscontainedwithin5.5billiontce,andtotalCO2emissionslessthan10.5billiontons.p重点城市和高能耗强度行业CO2排放率先达峰，制定十年达峰计划。Publishing10-year-planforpeakingemissions.Keycitiesandenergy-intensiveindustriesshouldtaketheleadinpeakingCO2emissions.p严格控制煤电产能和煤炭消费总量反弹，力争“十四五”实现煤炭消费达峰甚至负增长。Strictcontrolofreboundincoalpowercapacityandtotalcoalconsumption,andstrivetopeakcoalconsumptionorevenachievenegativegrowthduringthe14thFYP.p完善全国碳市场建设，扩大覆盖行业。Improvethenationalcarbonmarketandexpandthesectoralcoverage.p控制CH4等非CO2其他GHG排放，建立MRV体系。ControltheemissionofnonCO2GHGs;establishanMRVsystem.6.“十四五”规划强化节能降碳各项指标和措施(2)Targetsandmeasuresforstrengtheningenergysavingandcarbonreductioninthe14thFYP2020.12.10.能源基金会7.力争CO2排放2030年前实现高质量达峰，其后迅速呈现快速下降趋势(1)StriveforthepeakingofCO2emissionsbefore2030andaveryfastdecreaseinCO2emissionsafterthatpCO2排放达峰时间越早，峰值排放量越低，越有利于实现碳中和目标，否则实现碳中和目标的难度和代价则更大。TheearlierpeakingofCO2emissions,thelowerpeakingemission,andthemorefavorableforcarbonneutrality,orcarbonneutralitywillbemoredifficultandmoreexpensive.p峰值平台期要在2025年左右实现，2030年后要结束平台期，呈快速下降态势，2035年要比峰值有显著下降。Thepeakingplateauneedstobeachievedaround2025.After2030theplateauneedstobeendedandreplacedbyarapiddeclineintheemission,realizingasignificantreductiontill2035.p实现2060年前碳中和目标，2030至2050年CO2排放年均下降率要达8~10%。TheannualdeclineinCO2emissionsneedstoreach8~10%from2030to2050forthetargetofcarbonneutralitybefore2060.p2030年前实现CO2排放达峰同时，要为2030年之后快速减排做好技术、基础设施、机制和政策等多方面准备，奠定良好基础。WhilestrivingforthepeakingofCO2emissionsbefore2030,weneedalsopreparethetechnology,infrastructure,systemandpolicyetc.forrapidemissionreductionafter2030soastolayasolidfoundation.2020.12.10.能源基金会pCarbonneutralitybefore2060actuallyrequiresthelong-termdeepdecarbonizationpathwayunderthe1.5℃scenario.能源消费二氧化碳排放路径分析（不含CCS和碳汇）CO2emissionpathwayofenergyconsumption(CCSandcarbonsinknotincluded)GDP、一次能源消费和二氧化碳排放指数（2020=1）IndexforGDP,primaryenergyconsumptionandCO2emissions（2020=1）7.力争CO2排放2030年前实现高质量达峰，其后迅速呈现快速下降趋势(2)StriveforthepeakingofCO2emissionsbefore2030andaveryfastdecreaseinCO2emissionsafterthatPolicyscenario2℃scenarioLong-termlow-carbontransitionReinforcedpolicyscenario1.5℃scenario2050netzeroemissionscenarioCO2Index(2℃)GDPIndexPrimaryEnergyIndex(2℃)CO2Index(1.5℃)PrimaryEnergyIndex(1.5℃)pTwo-stepgoals:achievethepeakingofCO2emissionsbefore2030andcarbonneutralitybefore2060.2020.12.10.能源基金会p中国到2060年之前实现碳中和，实际上就是要努力实现以1.5℃目标为导向的长期深度脱碳转型路径。Carbonneutralitybefore2060actuallyrequiresthelong-termdeepdecarbonizationpathwayunderthe1.5℃scenario.能源消费二氧化碳排放路径分析（不含CCS和碳汇）CO2emissionpathwayofenergyconsumption(CCSandcarbonsinknotincluded)GDP、一次能源消费和二氧化碳排放指数（2020=1）IndexforGDP,primaryenergyconsumptionandCO2emissions（2020=1）pCO2排放达峰后要呈快速下降趋势，实现两个目标的衔接。CO2emissionsneeddecreaserapidlyafteritpeakssoastoachievethelinkingofthetwotargets.Policyscenario2℃scenarioLong-termlow-carbontransitionReinforcedpolicyscenario1.5℃scenario2050netzeroemissionscenarioCO2Index(2℃)GDPIndexPrimaryEnergyIndex(2℃)CO2Index(1.5℃)PrimaryEnergyIndex(1.5℃)7.力争CO2排放2030年前实现高质量达峰，其后迅速呈现快速下降趋势(2)StriveforthepeakingofCO2emissionsbefore2030andaveryfastdecreaseinCO2emissionsafterthat2020.12.10.能源基金会8.实现2030年前CO2排放达峰和2060年前碳中和两个目标的对策和措施要统筹布局，超前部署(1)StrategiesandmeasuresforthepeakingofCO2emissionbefore2030andcarbonneutralitybefore2060needoverallcoordinationandforwarddeploymentp顺应并引领世界范围经济技术变革趋势，打造核心竞争力，需要超前部署。Itrequiresforwarddeploymenttoadjusttoandleadtheeconomicandtechnologyreformworldwideandcreatecorecompetitiveness.n建立绿色低碳循环发展产业体系和社会消费方式，以数字化和深度电气化推进脱碳化。Buildingagreenlow-carboncircularindustrialsystemandsocialconsumptionpattern,andpromotingdecarbonizationthroughdigitalizationanddeep-electrification.n建立清洁低碳高效安全的能源生产和消费体系，形成以新能源和可再生能源为主体的零碳排放能源体系，基本结束化石能源时代。Establishingaclean,low-carbon,efficientandsafeenergyproductionandconsumptionsystem,formazero-carbonenergysystemwithnewandrenewableenergyasthemainbody,andbasicallyendthefossilfuelera.n推进支撑深度脱碳技术研发和产业化发展。例如：氢能、储能、智能电网、零碳炼钢、零碳化工、CCS和BECCS、CDR等。PromotingtheR&Dandindustrializationofdeepdecarbonizationtechnologies.Forexample,hydrogenenergy,energystorage,smartgrid,zerocarbonsteelmaking,zerocarbonchemicalindustry,CCSandBECCS,CDRandsoon.n推进体制机制改革和碳价机制与碳市场发展，为长期低碳化转型营造良好的制度环境、政策环境和市场环境。Promotinginstitutionalreform,carbonpricingmechanismsandcarbonmarkets,andcreateanenablinginstitutional,policyandmarketenvironmentforlong-termlow-carbontransition.2020.12.10.能源基金会p以长期碳中和目标为导向，避免近期高碳基础设施和产能扩张的技术锁定效应。Haveaneyeonthelong-termcarbonneutralitytarget,andavoidthetechnicallockingeffectofshort-termcarbon-intensiveinfrastructureandcapacityexpansion.n严格控制煤电、钢铁、化工、石化等高能耗强度产能扩张。Strictlycontroltheenergy-intensivecapacityexpansionincoalelectricity,steel,chemical,petrochemicalandotherindustries.p顺应世界经济变革趋势，避免投资风险。Conformtotheworldeconomicreformtrend,andavoidinvestmentrisks.n全球碳价机制下产业竞争力。Industrialcompetitivenessunderglobalcarbonpricingsystem.n高碳产能提前退役的搁浅成本。Strandedcostsofearlydecommissioningofcarbon-intensivecapacity.p以长期碳中和为目标导向，引导低碳技术发展和基础设施投资。打造新的经济增长点和新增就业机会。Thelong-termcarbonneutralitytargetdirectslow-carbontechnologydevelopmentandinfrastructureinvestmentandcreatesneweconomicgrowthareasandnewjobs.8.实现2030年前CO2排放达峰和2060年前碳中和两个目标的对策和措施要统筹布局，超前部署(2)StrategiesandmeasuresforthepeakingofCO2emissionbefore2030andcarbonneutralitybefore2060needoverallcoordinationandforwarddeployment2℃scenario1.5℃scenarioEnergysupplyIndustrialsectorTrafficsectorBuildingsectorInvestmentTrillion2020.12.10.能源基金会
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