建筑物脱碳的新方法可以降低排放并有利可图（英）-8页VIP专享VIP免费

下载本文档

阅读 475
格式 pdf
大小 355.96 KB
约8页
2023-12-18
收藏
点赞(0)
海报
举报

An AI-informed approach makes it faster, easier, and

cheaper to decarbonize real estate. Here’s how.

This article is a collaborative eort by Brodie Boland, Daniel Cramer, Alastair Green,

Darya Guettler, Focko Imhorst, and Marita Winslade, representing views from

McKinsey’ Real Estate Practice.

A new way to decarbonize

buildings can lower

emissions—profitably

Real estate companies are increasingly accepting the imperative to decarbonize

buildings, but they frequently find the task difficult, laborious, and expensive.

Owners with portfolios of many unique buildings often have no centralized inventory

that indicates the conditions inside or the types of equipment they contain. What’s

more, physical energy audits and building-by-building net-zero plans are lengthy, costly,

and enjoy no benefits of scale. Due to these limitations, the traditional approach to

decarbonization has created a widespread impression that decarbonizing buildings is

significantly unprofitable.

But thanks to improvements in the quantity and quality of data and analytic methods,

there is a better approach. It is now possible to use a combination of data from satellites,

geospatial analytics, regulations, labor and equipment costs, building characteristics,

energy, and other sources to rapidly create a high-fidelity picture of the current state of

an individual building without ever stepping foot inside.

By applying machine learning, AI, and physics-based modeling, portfolio owners can

quickly identify building decarbonization opportunities. This includes the current type

and estimated capacity of heating and cooling systems, the site-specific potential for

solar or geothermal power, and where insulation and efficiency levels are substandard.

Advanced evolutionary optimization algorithms can then determine the optimal set of

solutions and sequence of actions for each building—and the portfolio as a whole—to

reach net zero on a given timeline.

November 2023

These capabilities can quickly generate a set of financially optimized plans for each

building in a portfolio based on the building’s unique starting point, regulatory

environment, lease structure, and many other factors. These plans—which can be

generated for a full portfolio in a matter of weeks—can include a set of time-bound

actions, associated capital costs, and documentation of the effect on emissions and

operating costs. For large portfolios, this novel approach to reaching net zero represents

a more than 100-fold increase in the pace and scale of decarbonization planning

compared with the traditional approach of conducting energy audits and net-zero studies.

It also eliminates the need to rely on vague building archetypes or general marginal

abatement cost curves, which often lead to poorer plans and higher costs. This system

yields specific, detailed, actionable plans with faster abatement and better economics.

By developing the full path to net zero, real estate organizations can plan ahead instead

of reacting. They can integrate decarbonization cost insights when deciding which

buildings to move into or acquire. Because this new approach can rapidly generate a plan

for every building, owners and occupiers can decide where to invest limited capital and

coordinate equipment procurement, design, and project management to minimize costs.

Additionally, owners can aggregate building-level plans across the portfolio to develop

capital plans and reporting. Building-level plans for energy efficiency and electrification

allow owners and occupiers to estimate and procure required volumes of renewable

power, increase the potential to take advantage of government incentives, and make

building managers’ jobs easier.

This article begins by exploring the importance of adopting a more efficient way to

decarbonize buildings. Next, we describe how this new approach often makes it possible

for real estate portfolios to achieve net zero at a net present value (NPV) that is neutral

to positive. For example, we highlight a company that recently developed a net-zero

pathway plan that’s projected to cost roughly $85 million less than a traditional-approach

plan would have cost. Finally, we describe the seven features of a credible building

decarbonization plan.

Decarbonization efforts are challenging, but a faster, more economical way of

accomplishing the real estate industry’s decarbonization goals provides an opportunity

to meaningfully accelerate actions required to limit global warming.

Building owners, operators, and occupiers have

obligations to decarbonize

The real estate industry accounts for approximately 40 percent of global combustion-

related emissions, of which 28 percentage points come from building operations and

12 from embodied carbon—that is, emissions from building materials and construction

(Exhibit 1).1 To keep global warming within approximately 1.5°C and to reach a net-zero-

carbon building stock by 2050, the IEA estimates direct building emissions (such as from

onsite gas or oil boilers) will need to be reduced by 50 percent and indirect emissions by

1 2022 Global status report for buildings and construction, United Nations Environment Programme, November 9, 2022.

60 percent (for example, through energy efficiency measures and grid decarbonization)

by 2030.2 However, the world’s buildings are not currently on track to achieve these goals.

Some progress has been made and more is within reach

Real estate companies across the ecosystem are increasingly making net-zero

commitments.3 Meanwhile, regulators and governing bodies are working to implement

a mix of incentives and regulations, including the European Commission’s Energy

Performance of Buildings Directive, the United Kingdom’s Minimum Energy Efficiency

Standards, and the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s proposed climate

disclosure. Adding to momentum are investors who are increasingly allocating capital to

support the transition.

Progress is within reach. Unlike in some areas that are addressing decarbonization (such

as heavy industry and shipping), our work in real estate has shown us that the technology

already exists to replace the use of fossil fuels and dramatically improve energy efficiency

in most buildings around the globe. If companies deploy the most efficient approaches,

a large share of buildings (and an even larger share of building portfolios) can be

decarbonized with neutral or positive financials4 within the existing technology, policy,

supply chain, and energy market environment.

Fulfilling the industry’s obligations for the climate transition while creating value is

possible. However, it requires that building owners do things differently.

2 “Building sector emissions hit record high, but low-carbon pandemic recovery can help transform sector – UN report,” United

Nations Environment Programme, December 16, 2020.

3 “Companies taking action,” Science Based Targets initiative dashboard, August 2023.

4 “Sustainability upgrades are driving a vacancy gap in oces,” JLL, January 16, 2023.

Exhibit 1

Building operations (direct)

Building operations (indirect)

Building construction industry

Other construction

Other industry

Transportation

Other

28 37

Web <2023>

Exhibit <1> of <4>

Global energy and

process emissions

by source, 2021, %

Source: UNEP 2022 Global Status Report for Buildings and Construction

Thirty-seven percent of global energy emissions are related to buildings,

with 28 percentage points of that due to building operations.

McKinsey & Company

下载本文档

文本预览下载提示常见问题

November2023Anewwaytodecarbonizebuildingscanloweremissions—profitablyAnAI-informedapproachmakesitfaster,easier,andcheapertodecarbonizerealestate.Here’show.ThisarticleisacollaborativeeffortbyBrodieBoland,DanielCramer,AlastairGreen,DaryaGuettler,FockoImhorst,andMaritaWinslade,representingviewsfromMcKinsey’RealEstatePractice.Realestatecompaniesareincreasinglyacceptingtheimperativetodecarbonizebuildings,buttheyfrequentlyfindthetaskdifficult,laborious,andexpensive.Ownerswithportfoliosofmanyuniquebuildingsoftenhavenocentralizedinventorythatindicatestheconditionsinsideorthetypesofequipmenttheycontain.What’smore,physicalenergyauditsandbuilding-by-buildingnet-zeroplansarelengthy,costly,andenjoynobenefitsofscale.Duetotheselimitations,thetraditionalapproachtodecarbonizationhascreatedawidespreadimpressionthatdecarbonizingbuildingsissignificantlyunprofitable.Butthankstoimprovementsinthequantityandqualityofdataandanalyticmethods,thereisabetterapproach.Itisnowpossibletouseacombinationofdatafromsatellites,geospatialanalytics,regulations,laborandequipmentcosts,buildingcharacteristics,energy,andothersourcestorapidlycreateahigh-fidelitypictureofthecurrentstateofanindividualbuildingwithouteversteppingfootinside.Byapplyingmachinelearning,AI,andphysics-basedmodeling,portfolioownerscanquicklyidentifybuildingdecarbonizationopportunities.Thisincludesthecurrenttypeandestimatedcapacityofheatingandcoolingsystems,thesite-specificpotentialforsolarorgeothermalpower,andwhereinsulationandefficiencylevelsaresubstandard.Advancedevolutionaryoptimizationalgorithmscanthendeterminetheoptimalsetofsolutionsandsequenceofactionsforeachbuilding—andtheportfolioasawhole—toreachnetzeroonagiventimeline.Thesecapabilitiescanquicklygenerateasetoffinanciallyoptimizedplansforeachbuildinginaportfoliobasedonthebuilding’suniquestartingpoint,regulatoryenvironment,leasestructure,andmanyotherfactors.Theseplans—whichcanbegeneratedforafullportfolioinamatterofweeks—canincludeasetoftime-boundactions,associatedcapitalcosts,anddocumentationoftheeffectonemissionsandoperatingcosts.Forlargeportfolios,thisnovelapproachtoreachingnetzerorepresentsamorethan100-foldincreaseinthepaceandscaleofdecarbonizationplanningcomparedwiththetraditionalapproachofconductingenergyauditsandnet-zerostudies.Italsoeliminatestheneedtorelyonvaguebuildingarchetypesorgeneralmarginalabatementcostcurves,whichoftenleadtopoorerplansandhighercosts.Thissystemyieldsspecific,detailed,actionableplanswithfasterabatementandbettereconomics.Bydevelopingthefullpathtonetzero,realestateorganizationscanplanaheadinsteadofreacting.Theycanintegratedecarbonizationcostinsightswhendecidingwhichbuildingstomoveintooracquire.Becausethisnewapproachcanrapidlygenerateaplanforeverybuilding,ownersandoccupierscandecidewheretoinvestlimitedcapitalandcoordinateequipmentprocurement,design,andprojectmanagementtominimizecosts.Additionally,ownerscanaggregatebuilding-levelplansacrosstheportfoliotodevelopcapitalplansandreporting.Building-levelplansforenergyefficiencyandelectrificationallowownersandoccupierstoestimateandprocurerequiredvolumesofrenewablepower,increasethepotentialtotakeadvantageofgovernmentincentives,andmakebuildingmanagers’jobseasier.Thisarticlebeginsbyexploringtheimportanceofadoptingamoreefficientwaytodecarbonizebuildings.Next,wedescribehowthisnewapproachoftenmakesitpossibleforrealestateportfoliostoachievenetzeroatanetpresentvalue(NPV)thatisneutraltopositive.Forexample,wehighlightacompanythatrecentlydevelopedanet-zeropathwayplanthat’sprojectedtocostroughly$85millionlessthanatraditional-approachplanwouldhavecost.Finally,wedescribethesevenfeaturesofacrediblebuildingdecarbonizationplan.Decarbonizationeffortsarechallenging,butafaster,moreeconomicalwayofaccomplishingtherealestateindustry’sdecarbonizationgoalsprovidesanopportunitytomeaningfullyaccelerateactionsrequiredtolimitglobalwarming.Buildingowners,operators,andoccupiershaveobligationstodecarbonizeTherealestateindustryaccountsforapproximately40percentofglobalcombustion-relatedemissions,ofwhich28percentagepointscomefrombuildingoperationsand12fromembodiedcarbon—thatis,emissionsfrombuildingmaterialsandconstruction(Exhibit1).1Tokeepglobalwarmingwithinapproximately1.5°Candtoreachanet-zero-carbonbuildingstockby2050,theIEAestimatesdirectbuildingemissions(suchasfromonsitegasoroilboilers)willneedtobereducedby50percentandindirectemissionsby12022Globalstatusreportforbuildingsandconstruction,UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme,November9,2022.2Web<2023><Buildingsdecarbonization>EExxhhibiibti<t1>1of<4>Thirty-sevenpercentofglobalenergyemissionsarerelatedtobuildings,with28percentagepointsofthatduetobuildingoperations.GlobalenergyandBuildingoperations(direct)9processemissionsbysource,2021,%2837Buildingoperations(indirect)19Buildingconstructionindustry9Otherconstruction3Otherindustry30Transportation22Other8Source:UNEP2022GlobalStatusReportforBuildingsandConstructionMcKinsey&Company60percent(forexample,throughenergyefficiencymeasuresandgriddecarbonization)by2030.2However,theworld’sbuildingsarenotcurrentlyontracktoachievethesegoals.SomeprogresshasbeenmadeandmoreiswithinreachRealestatecompaniesacrosstheecosystemareincreasinglymakingnet-zerocommitments.3Meanwhile,regulatorsandgoverningbodiesareworkingtoimplementamixofincentivesandregulations,includingtheEuropeanCommission’sEnergyPerformanceofBuildingsDirective,theUnitedKingdom’sMinimumEnergyEfficiencyStandards,andtheUSSecuritiesandExchangeCommission’sproposedclimatedisclosure.Addingtomomentumareinvestorswhoareincreasinglyallocatingcapitaltosupportthetransition.Progressiswithinreach.Unlikeinsomeareasthatareaddressingdecarbonization(suchasheavyindustryandshipping),ourworkinrealestatehasshownusthatthetechnologyalreadyexiststoreplacetheuseoffossilfuelsanddramaticallyimproveenergyefficiencyinmostbuildingsaroundtheglobe.Ifcompaniesdeploythemostefficientapproaches,alargeshareofbuildings(andanevenlargershareofbuildingportfolios)canbedecarbonizedwithneutralorpositivefinancials4withintheexistingtechnology,policy,supplychain,andenergymarketenvironment.Fulfillingtheindustry’sobligationsfortheclimatetransitionwhilecreatingvalueispossible.However,itrequiresthatbuildingownersdothingsdifferently.2“Buildingsectoremissionshitrecordhigh,butlow-carbonpandemicrecoverycanhelptransformsector–UNreport,”UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme,December16,2020.3“Companiestakingaction,”ScienceBasedTargetsinitiativedashboard,August2023.4“Sustainabilityupgradesaredrivingavacancygapinoffices,”JLL,January16,2023.3BuildingdecarbonizationcanbeeconomicaltodayIndetaileddecarbonizationworkcoveringapproximately20,000buildings,morethan15megatonsofCO2equivalentannualemissions,andvariouspropertytypesandgeographies,wehavecometoanotableconclusion:usingthenewapproach,itisoftenpossibleforrealestateportfoliostoachievenetzerowithneutraltopositivereturnsoninvestmentassavingsmeetorexceedcostsovertime.Thisconclusionisvalidwithconservativeassumptions,includingnogreenpremiumsonrentorpropertyvaluation,noincrementalfutureregulationsorcarbonpricing,andnoneworsignificantlyimprovedtechnology.Byexecutingenergyefficiencyandelectrificationmeasuresforeachbuilding’sfullpathtonetzeroandoptimizingrenewable-powerprocurementattheportfoliolevel,buildingownersandoccupantstypicallycanrecouptheirinvestmentsthroughenergysavings,capitalcostoptimization,andavoidanceofexistingregulatorypenalties.AdiversecohortofrealestateportfoliosusedthenewapproachtodramaticallyimprovetheNPVofreducingtheiroperationalemissionstonetzero(Exhibit2).Theseplanswereverifiedthroughtestingandrefinementwithengineersandfacilitymanagersandfromtheapprovalofbusinesscasesandcapitalplansbyfinancedepartments,executives,andboards.ArealestateinvestorimprovedtheNPVofitsnet-zeropathwaybyroughly$85millionAUSrealestateinvestorwithroughly$20billioninassetsundermanagementacrossmultiplepropertytypesrecentlyusedthemodernapproachtodevelopasset-leveldecarbonizationplansformorethan750buildings.DevelopingtheinitialplanstooklessthaneightweeksandimprovedtheNPVoftherealestateinvestmenttrust’snet-zeropathwaybyabout$85million,toanear-neutralNPV(seesidebar,“Acompany’soptimizedapproach”).Thisinvestor’snet-zerojourneycouldpayforitselfduetolowerWeb<2023><Buildingsdecarbonization>EExxhhibiibti<t22>of<4>Buildingdecarbonizationcanbeeconomicaltoday.Netpresentvalue(NPV)ofportfoliopathwaytonetzeroPortfolioPlannedbeforeandafteroptimization,1illustrative,$billionsize,abatement,BeforeoptimizationAfteroptimizationthousandskilotonsCO2Netzeroofbuildingsequivalentby–0.500.51.01.52.0Globalretailowner-4.65,0002040occupierwithretailandwarehouses–0.2–0.100.7NorthAmericanowner-5002050investorfocusedonretail0.8andwarehousingNorthAmericanowner-2040investorfocusedonmedical350ocesandassistedliving1TheNPVvaluesgivenarecalculatedwithoutconsideringgreenpremiums,futureregulations,orstepchangeimprovementsintechnologyperformanceorcosts;weretheyincluded,NPVwouldlikelyincrease.McKinsey&Company4Acompany’soptimizedapproachWeb<2023>NOTE:ForthePDF,thescrollytriggertextwillneedtobefoldedintothearticletext(bulletedlist?)-would<Buildingsdecarbonization>suggestconnectingwithcopydeskandKatyonhowbesttoincorporateScrollyExhibit<3PDF>of<4>Eightwaysalargerealestateowner-investorimprovedthenetpresentvalueofitspathtonetzero.Netpresentvalue85Totalimprovement¹improvement,realestateinvestor,OptimizedAvoidedAvoided$millionsequencingstrandedregulatory17capitalpenalties21512CoordinatedUpdatedLeveragedbulkmajorleaseprocurementinvestments3agreements101716Optimizedpowerprocurement10Capturedincentives251Anadditional$35millioncouldbeachievedthroughincentivesandleasestructurechanges.2Alsoreducestheriskoflast-minute,moreexpensiveactionsrequiredtoreacttofutureregulations.Onlyexistingregulationswereconsideredforthepurposesofcalculatingnetpresentvalue(NPV)optimizationpotential.Avoidedpenaltiesfromlast-minuteaction/nesfromfutureregulationsareconsideredfurtherupside.3OnlyappliedwhereroofandrooftopHVACsystemshavesimilarexpectedend-of-lifedates.McKinsey&CompanyTotalNPVimprovement.Toproduceaequipmentoftenhaveusefullivesof10to>25conservativeestimate,theNPVimprovementyears,missedopportunitiestoelectrifyatend-figuredoesnotincludeadditionalupsidepotentialof-lifeislikelytoresultinstrandedcapitalorthefromrentalorcapratepremia,increasesinneedtoretireequipmentbeforetheendofitsoccupancy,theabilitytocapturelocalincentives,usefullife.)and/ortheavoidanceoffutureregulations.Avoidedregulatorypenalties.DevelopedOptimizedsequencing.Usedevolutionaryplanstohelpensurethatfossil-fuel-poweredoptimizationtodeterminethehighestvaluesetassetsarereplacedbeforetherequireddatesinofactionstoreachnetzero;eg,thecompanyapplicableregions.installedefficiencymeasuresearlytomaximizeoperating-expensesavingsandreducecapitalCoordinatedmajorinvestments.Coordinatedexpendituresrequiredtoelectrifylater.majorrenovationsandequipmentupgrades(eg,roofreplacements,insulationupgrades,andAvoidedstrandedcapital.Actedimmediatelyelectrificationofrooftopheating,ventilation,toensurethatnear-termcapitalinvestmentsandair-conditioning[HVAC]systems)toreduceacrosstheportfoliowerealignedwithlong-terminstallationcostsbysharinglabor,projectdecarbonizationplans.(Becauseroofsandmajormanagement,design,crane,andothercosts.5Updatedleaseagreements.ReviewedleasesOptimizedpowerprocurement.Developedantoensurecurrenttemplatesallowforcapitaloptimizedpowerprocurementstrategytiedtoanrecoveriesforinvestmentsthatyieldenergyelectrificationtimeline.Thegoalwastoreducesavingsfortenants.Thisallowslandlordstoaligntheriskofsigninglargecontractsathighercostscostsandbenefitsacrosspartiesandavoidrightbeforenet-zerotargetdates.the“split-incentiveproblem.”(Fornonservicedleases,landlordsmaywishtoconsidermetered-Capturedincentives.Createdaplantoapplyefficiencystructuresthatcanallowownerstoforincentivesavailablefornet-zero-relatedreceiveashareofenergysavings.)electrificationandenergyefficiencymeasures.(TheseincentivesweretreatedasanupsideLeveragedbulkprocurement.DevelopedplansandwerenotfactoredintotheNPVimprove-thatprovidelong-termvisibilityintoallmajormentestimate.)HVACandbuildingenvelopeneedstonegotiatebulkdiscountsandsecuredeliverytimelinesformajorequipmentandmaterials.utilitybills,avoidedexistingregulatorypenalties,andreducedcapitalcosts(bycoordinatingprojectsandnegotiatingbulkprocurementpricing,forexample).Changesinthesefactors,suchasanewpriceoncarboninacertainjurisdictionorgreenpremiums,arelikelytoresultinpositiveeconomicsoverthelongrun.TraditionalapproachesaretypicallyslowerandmorecostlyTraditionally,ownershavetakenaproject-by-projectapproachacrosstheirportfolios,focusingondiscreteactionswithclearstand-alonepaybackperiods,suchasinstallinghigh-efficiencyequipment,lighting,andautomatedbuildingcontrols.Marginalabatementcostcurves,orMACCcurves,havehistoricallybeenusedtoidentifyandprioritizestand-alonepaybackperiodprojectsbycalculatingtheaverageindustrycosts,orsavings,pertonofcarbonabatedforthattypeofproject.MACCshavebeenausefulprioritizationtoolinthepastandremainsoforhighlystandardizedindustrieswheresite-specificoptimizationisnotyetavailable.However,forrealestateportfolios,anoptimizedapproachthatusesdataandanalyticscanyieldsignificantlyimprovedresults.Toillustratetherelativebenefitoftheoptimizedapproach,take,forexample,abuildingfollowinganaveragecommercialbuildingMACCcurvethatwouldyieldanNPVofnegative$1.1milliontoreachnetzero.Thesamebuilding,byoptimizingthepathwayforthespecificbuildingconditionsviathenewapproach,couldyieldanNPVofpositive$100,000toreachnetzero,representinga$1.2millionNPVimprovementcomparedwiththealternativemethod.Whyisthisthecase?Forcompanieswithanet-zerocommitment,theMACCapproachdoesnotconsidersitespecifics(suchasifthebuildingenvelopeisleaky)orinterdependenciesandcoordinationopportunitiesbetweendecarbonizationlevers.Accordingly,itoftenpushescostlyactionsintothefuture.Realestateownerscouldthenbeforcedtoimplementmoreexpensiveinitiativesatlater,nonoptimaltimes,leadingtowastedcapital(duetoissuessuchasoversizesystemsorequipmentthathastoberetiredbeforeendoflife)andlostenergysavings.6Otherownershavetraditionallyworkedfromthebottom-up,conductingbuilding-by-buildingenergyauditsandengineeringstudiestoexamineissuesincludinginsulation,currentheating,ventilation,andair-conditioning(HVAC)systems,andonsitesolarpotential,andthendevelopingbespokedecarbonizationplans.Thisapproachoftentakesmonthsperbuildingandcanresultinaseriesofindividualreports,makingitdifficulttoaggregateplans,understandportfolio-widecosts,avoidwastedcapitalsuchasbyhavingtostripoutequipmentbeforeendoflife,complywithregulationsortargets,orfindportfolio-levelefficiencies(suchasthroughbulkprocurement).Howtogetstarted:ThesevenfeaturesofacrediblebuildingdecarbonizationplanWhilearangeofbuildingownersandoccupantsaremakingcommitmentstoachievenetzero,manylackcomprehensiveplans.GivenwhatisnowpossiblewithevolvingdataandAIandthesignificanteffectstheycouldhaveonthepaceofbuildingdecarbonizationandprofitability,majorbuildingownersandoccupiershaveanewsetofoptionsfordevelopingcredibleplans.Optimalplanswillrequirethefollowingsevencomponents:•Portfoliolenstonetzero.Manybuildingownersoroccupantshavehundredsorthousandsofbuildingsintheirportfolios.Plansfordecarbonizingthesebuildingsareoftenpatchwork,startingwithasubsetofbuildingsbasedonemissions(forexample,sometakethe“worstfirst”approach),regulations(someonlycreateplanswhereregulationsalreadyexist),orotherfactors(someassetsfallwithincertaindivisionswherethereisanenthusiasticsustain-abilityleader).Underthenewapproach,ownerscancapturevaluebymakingbuildingplansacrosstheportfolioworktogether,suchasthroughjointprocurement,coordination,andsmartsequencing.Untilthereisaplanforeverybuilding,theplanisnotcomplete.•Asset-specificplans.Foroptimizedfinancials,generallistsoflevers(suchasLEDlights,heatpumps,andon-sitesolar),archetypes,andMACCcurvesfallshort.Tomaximizedecarbonizationimpactperdollarspent,eachbuildingneedsitsownplanthatconsidersitsspecificstartingpoint(suchastypeofinsulation,currentequipmentandsystems,andbuildinglayout),conditions(includinglocalclimate,geologicalconditions,andlocalsolarradiation),andassetstrategies,includingleasetypes,tenantcomposition,andoperatingobjectives.•Afullpathwaytonetzero.Companiesarewisetoavoidplansthatonlygetpartofthewaytonetzero,suchasplanstoreach30percentenergy-efficiencyimprovementsinthenexttwoyearswithoutvisibilitypastthatpoint.Thiskindofshort-termviewcansignificantlycompromiselong-termdecarbonizationoutcomesandcosts.Forinstance,someinsulationmeasuresthatdon’tmeettheshort-termhurdleratecouldreducefutureHVACsizingrequirementsandexpenses.Companiesthatmakeonlyshort-termdecisions—orwaituntilregulationsrequirethem—mayendupspendingmoreinthelongrun.•LinkedScope1and2plans.PlansforScope1,suchaselectrificationmeasures,andforScope2,suchasrenewable-powerpurchasing,oftenarecreatedseparately.Forexample,facilitiesmanagersmighthandleretrofits,whileprocurementdepartmentsmighttakeonrenewable-energypurchasing.Thisapproachdoesn’ttakeadvantageof7interdependenciesbetweenScopes1and2,suchasdemandestimatesthatconsiderthesometimes-opposingeffectsofenergyefficiencyandelectrificationactions.Theresultcanbeslowerandmoreexpensiverenewable-energyprocurement.•Actionablesteps.Plansforeachbuildingshouldincludespecificstepsthatabuilding’sfacilitymanagercanimplement.(Forexample:“Replacegas-firedsystemwithairsourceheatpumpandauxiliaryelectricresistancebackupasneeded.Additionalnaturalgasbackupwithcondensingboilercanbeimplementedtomitigatetemperaturesbelow–10°F.”)Buildingpersonnelshouldbeabletoquicklysendtheseinstructionstovendorsorfacilitiesmanagementteamsforexecution.•Quantifiedplans.Plansshouldbespecificenoughtoinformfinancialplanningatabuildingandportfoliolevel.Leadersneedtounderstandtheexactfinancialsofachievingnetzero,includingtherequiredchangesincapitalinvestmentandoperatingcosts,thepotentialcostsofadditionaldebtortheimplicationsoffront-loadingcapitalexpenditures,andhowbothcostsandbenefitswillaccruetoeitherbuildingownersortenants.•Net-zero-orienteddecisionmaking.Ownersandoperatorscanembeddecarbonizationplansintooperationsacrosstheentireorganization,includingprocesses,incentives,andgovernancestructures.Fortunately,decarbonizingbuildings’operationalemissionscanoftenbeaccomplishedwithsmalltweakstoexistingprocessesratherthananentirelynewcampaign.“Businessasusual”shouldcometoincludeupdatingcapital-planningprocessestoconsiderthedecarbonizationplansforeachbuilding,creatingfundsandallocatingcapital(whichoftencanhaveapositivereturn)forlow-emissionssystems,andincorporatingdecarbonizationanalysesintotheprocessofacquiringnewassets.Therealestateindustryfacesdauntingchallengesasitworkstodecarbonize:itneedstoscalesupplychainstomeetnewdemand,trainmillionsofskilledworkerstodeployretrofits,andupgradegridgenerationandstoragecapacitytoaccommodateelectrification.Thegoodnewsisthatdevelopingdecarbonizationplanshasrecentlybecomemuchsimpler,faster,andcheaper,makingiteasierfortheindustrytogetmoving.Mostimportant,realestatecompaniesthatmakeuseoftheAI-backed,full-life-cycleapproachtodecarbonizationcanmakeagenuinedentinbuilding-relatedemissions.Giventheprofounddecarbonizationchallengesacrosssectors,thisnewapproachcouldbeanimportantpartofglobaleffortstominimizeclimatechange.Itispossibleandnecessary.Thetimetostartisnow.BrodieBolandisapartnerinMcKinsey’sWashington,DC,office,whereAlastairGreenisaseniorpartnerandDaryaGuettlerisaconsultant;DanielCramerisasolutionassociatepartnerintheNewYorkoffice;FockoImhorstisapartnerintheLondonoffice;andMaritaWinsladeisaconsultantintheTorontooffice.TheauthorswishtothankAnnHewitt,ShaileshLekhwani,TessaOwens,AidanRowley,andIsabelleRundefortheircontributionstothisarticle.Copyright©2023McKinsey&Company.Allrightsreserved.8

1、当您付费下载文档后，您只拥有了使用权限，并不意味着购买了版权，文档只能用于自身使用，不得用于其他商业用途（如 [转卖]进行直接盈利或[编辑后售卖]进行间接盈利）。
2、本站所有内容均由合作方或网友上传，本站不对文档的完整性、权威性及其观点立场正确性做任何保证或承诺！文档内容仅供研究参考，付费前请自行鉴别。
3、如文档内容存在违规，或者侵犯商业秘密、侵犯著作权等，请点击“违规举报”。

碎片内容

碳中和的最新文档