VCSModuleVMD0055ESTIMATIONOFEMISSIONREDUCTIONSFROMAVOIDINGUNPLANNEDDEFORESTATIONVersion1.027November2023SectoralScope14VMD0055,v1.0Verradevelopedversion1.0ofthismodulewithsupportfromTimPearson(GreenCollar),KevinR.Brown(WildlifeConservationSociety),SimonKoenig(ClimateFocus),TillNeeff,SarahM.Walker(WildlifeConservationSociety),andLucioPedroni(CarbonDecisionsInternational).JuanFelipeVillegas(CarbonDecisionsInternational),IginoEmmer(Silvestrum),RebeccaDicksonandDavidShoch(TerraCarbon),andJ.RonaldEastmanandRobertGilmorePontiusJr.(ClarkLabs),andManuelEstradamadesignificantcontributions.VMD0055,v1.0CONTENTS1SOURCES.......................................................................................................................12SUMMARYDESCRIPTIONOFTHEMODULE....................................................................23DEFINITIONSANDACRONYMS.......................................................................................23.1Definitions.........................................................................................................................................23.2Acronyms...........................................................................................................................................34APPLICABILITYCONDITIONS...........................................................................................45PROCEDURES.................................................................................................................55.1ProjectBoundary..............................................................................................................................55.2DescriptionofBaselineScenario.....................................................................................................85.3QuantificationofGHGEmissionReductions................................................................................116DATAANDPARAMETERS...............................................................................................596.1DataandParametersAvailableatValidation...............................................................................596.2DataandParametersMonitored..................................................................................................627REFERENCES...............................................................................................................93APPENDIX1:DETERMINATIONOFJURISDICTIONALDATAFORPROJECTADALLOCATION.94A1.1General........................................................................................................................................94A1.2Boundaries..................................................................................................................................95A1.3ADCategoriesforWhichHistoricalADEstimatesAreRequired................................................96A1.4CompilationandAllocationofUDefAD.......................................................................................97A1.5UpdatingtheADBaselineAllocationReport............................................................................118APPENDIX2:DEVELOPMENTOFJURISDICTIONALDATAONACTIVITYSHIFTINGBYGEOGRAPHICALLYMOBILEAGENTSFORPROJECTLEAKAGEESTIMATES..................119A2.1Step1:SpatiallyDelineateLandAvailableforActivityShiftingOutsidetheUDefPAandUDefLB.................................................................................................................................................119A2.2Step2:DevelopArea-WeightedEmissionFactorforActivityShiftingtoOutsidetheUDefLB121APPENDIX3:THEPROJECTBASELINEDEVELOPMENTPROCESS....................................122A3.1SubmissionofUDefADBaselineAllocationRequest..............................................................124A3.2ReviewofADBaselineAllocationRequests.............................................................................125A3.3ProcessandResponsibilitiesforADBaselineAllocation.........................................................126VMD0055,v1.0APPENDIX4:DATACONTRIBUTIONBYSTAKEHOLDERS...................................................129DOCUMENTHISTORY.......................................................................................................132VMD0055,v1.01SOURCESThismoduleisbasedonthefollowingmodules,toolsandmethodologies:•JNRScenarios1,2and3Requirements•VM0007REDD+MethodologyFramework(REDD+MF),v1.6•VM0015MethodologyforAvoidedUnplannedDeforestation,v1.1Thismoduleusesthelatestversionsofthefollowingmodulesandtools:•VT0007UnplannedDeforestationAllocationTool(UDef-AT)•CDMMethodologicalTool:EstimationofDirectN2OEmissionsfromNitrogenFertilization(E-NA)Thismoduleusestheestimationproceduresdescribedinthefollowingmodulesforestimatingcarbonstocksinrelevantpools,leakage,directemissionsandmonitoring:1•VMD0001EstimationofCarbonStocksintheAbove-andBelowgroundBiomassinLiveTreeandNon-treePools(CP-AB)•VMD0002EstimationofCarbonStocksintheDeadWoodPool(CP-D)•VMD0003EstimationofCarbonStocksintheLitterPool(CP-L)•VMD0004EstimationofCarbonStocksintheSoilOrganicCarbonPool(CP-S)•VMD0005EstimationofCarbonStocksintheLong-termWoodProductsPool(CP-W)•VMD0011EstimationofEmissionsfromMarket-effects(LK-ME)•VMD0013EstimationofGreenhouseGasEmissionsfromBiomassandPeatBurning(E–BPB)•VMD0014EstimationofEmissionsfromFossilFuelCombustion(E-FFC)•VMD0016MethodsforStratificationoftheProjectArea(X-STR)1Wherethesemodulesrefertoexternaldocuments(e.g.,IPCCguidelines)andsuchdocumentsareupdated,themostrecentversionofthedocumentmustbeused.1VMD0055,v1.02SUMMARYDESCRIPTIONOFTHEMODULEThismoduledescribestheproceduresandmethodsforaccountingforthegreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsreductionsfromprojectsthataimtoavoidunplanneddeforestation.Themoduleincludesthefollowing:•Proceduresforunplanneddeforestationactivitydata(UDefAD)collection,constructionofforestcoverbenchmarkmapsandapplicationoftheUnplannedDeforestationAllocationTool(UDef-AT).TheseactivitiesarecarriedoutbyVerrathroughthird-partydataserviceproviders(DSPs)orbythejurisdictionalproponentwhereaprojectistobenestedinaregisteredJurisdictionalandNestedREDD+(JNR)Scenario1or2program.•ProceduresforestimatingGHGbaselineemissionsfromcarbonstockchangesresultingfromunplanneddeforestationintheprojectarea(UDefPA).Toestablishcarbonstockchangesinthebaseline,projectproponentsestimateemissionfactorsandcombinethesewithUDefADgeneratedbyVerrafortheUDefPAandleakagebelt(UDefLB).•ProceduresforestimatingthenetGHGemissionsfromdisplacementofunplanneddeforestation(leakageduetoactivityshifting)triggeredbyprojectspreventingunplanneddeforestation.Leakageinsideandbeyondtheareadirectlyaroundtheproject(theUDefLB)causedbygeographicallyunconstrainedagentsandbyregionaldemandforwoodproductsisassessed.•MethodsforexpostmonitoringofGHGemissionsduetodeforestationintheUDefPAandUDefLB3DEFINITIONSANDACRONYMS3.1DefinitionsInadditiontothedefinitionssetoutintheVCSProgramDefinitionsandVM0048ReducingEmissionsfromDeforestationandForestDegradation,thefollowingdefinitionsareusedinthismodule.AquacultureFarmingofaquaticorganisms,includingfish,mollusks,crustaceansandaquaticplants2VMD0055,v1.0Avoidingunplanneddeforestationprojectarea(UDefPA)Thediscreteparcel(s)which,atthestartoftheproject,areunderthreatofunplanneddeforestationandonwhichtheprojectproponentwillundertaketheprojectactivities(i.e.,onwhichunplanneddeforestationwillbeavoided)Avoidingunplanneddeforestationprojectleakagebelt(UDefLB)Thediscreteparcel(s)surroundingtheUDefPAtowhichunplanneddeforestationintheUDefPAmaybepotentiallydisplacedasaconsequenceofimplementingprojectactivitiesaimedatavoidingunplanneddeforestationDataserviceprovider(DSP)EntitiescontractedbyVerratodevelopactivitydataand/orriskmapsForestreferenceemissionlevel(FREL)TheamountofemissionsfromdeforestationandforestdegradationfromageographicareaGeographicallyconstraineddeforestationanddegradationagentsAgentsthathavegeneratedtheirlivelihoodinsideorneartheUDefPAsincethestartoftheprojectGeographicallymobiledeforestationagentsDeforestationagentsthat,inthebaselinescenario,areexpectedtomigrateintoorneartheUDefPAandcausedeforestationthereinHistoricalreferenceperiod(HRP)Afixedperiodoftimeduringwhichfactorsmustbeconsideredinordertomakefutureprojectionsofdeforestation,thedurationofwhichissetoutintheVCSMethodologyRequirementsProjectactivitiesregionTheregioninwhichthehistoricalagentsanddriversofdeforestationareanalyzed;itcomprisestheUDefPA,theUDefLBandthesurroundingdeforestedareasextending10kmfromtheUDefPA.RanchingRaisingherdsofanimalsonlargeareas(greaterthan>1000ha)ofland3.2AcronymsADActivitydataBVPBaselinevalidityperiodCHCChangecategoriesDLFDisplacementleakagefactorDSPDataserviceprovider3VMD0055,v1.0FCBMForestcoverbenchmarkmapFRELForestreferenceemissionlevelHRPHistoricalreferenceperiodSOPStandardoperatingprocedure(s)UDefLBAvoidingunplanneddeforestationleakagebeltUDefPAAvoidingunplanneddeforestationprojectarea4APPLICABILITYCONDITIONSThismoduleisapplicablewhereallofthefollowingconditionsaremet:1)Thelandusetransitioninthebaselinescenarioisforestlandtonon-forestland,meetingthedefinitionofunplanneddeforestation;2)Theprojectinvolvesactivitiesaimedatavoidingunplanneddeforestation;and3)Agentsofdeforestationinthebaselinescenarioclearthelandfortreeharvesting,settlements,roads,unsanctionedexpansionofroadsorotherinfrastructure,agriculturalcropproduction,ranchingoraquaculture.Thismoduleisnotapplicableunderanyofthefollowingconditions:4)Theprojectharveststreestogenerateincome,fiberorfuel(unlessthetreeshavebeenplantedduringtheprojectlifetimeaspartofprojectactivitiesforleakagemitigationorcommunitydevelopment);5)MorethantwopercentofthevegetationinthePAispeatlandortidalwetlandvegetation;6)Wetlandsarebeingdrainedinthebaselinescenarioorwetlanddrainageoccursintheprojectscenario(includingtheuseoftrenchesorditchesforthepurposeofwetlanddrainage);7)Morethan10percentofthevegetationina10-kilometerwidebufferaroundthePAispeatlandortidalwetlandvegetation;or4VMD0055,v1.08)Implementedleakagemitigationmeasuresinclude:a)Floodingagriculturallandstoincreaseproduction(e.g.,forricepaddies),orb)Intensifyinglivestockproductionthroughtheuseoffeed-lots2and/ormanurelagoons.35PROCEDURES5.1ProjectBoundary5.1.1JurisdictionBoundaryThejurisdictionofrelevancetotheprojectwillbedefinedbyVerrafollowingthecriteriadescribedinSectionA1.2.1ofAppendix1andwillbeprovidedtotheprojectproponent.5.1.2AvoidingUnplannedDeforestationProjectArea(UDefPA)TheentireUDefPAmustbeforestattheprojectstartdateandmustonlyincludelandqualifyingasforestforaminimumof10yearspriortotheprojectstartdate.TheboundariesoftheUDefPAremainfixedforthedurationoftheprojectcreditingperiod,regardlessofanylandcoverchangeafterthestartoftheproject.TheUDefPAmayincludedifferentprojectactivityinstances,allofwhichmustmeettheaboverequirements.Whereaprojectactivityinstance(orequivalent)leavestheproject(e.g.,alandownerdecidestoleaveaproject)beforetheendofthecreditingperiod:1)Theprojectmustconservativelyassumealossofallpreviouslyverifiedemissionreductionsassociatedwiththeexcludedarea;2)Theprojectproponentmustsubmitvectorizeddigitalfiles(e.g.,KML)toVerrathatclearlydifferentiatetheremainingUDefPAfromtheexcludedinstance;and3)ThebaselineemissionsmustberecalculatedbytheprojectproponenttoadjusttotherevisedUDefPA.AprojectdeviationdetailingthesechangesmustbeintroducedinthesubsequentmonitoringreportandassessedbytheVVB.2Feedlotsaredefinedasareasinwhichnaturallygrazinganimalsareconfinedtoanareawhichproducesnofeedandarefedonstoredfeeds.3Anaerobiclagoonsthatfunctionasreceptaclesforanimalwasteflushedfromanimalpens.Anaerobicorganismspresentinthemanureandtheenvironmentdecomposethewasteinthelagoon.5VMD0055,v1.05.1.3AvoidingUnplannedDeforestationProjectLeakageBelt(UDefLB)Theavoidingunplanneddeforestationprojectleakagebelt(UDefLB)istheforestareatowhichunplanneddeforestationbygeographicallyconstrainedagentsmaybedisplacedandismonitored.ThespatialextentoftheUDefLBwillbedefinedbyVerrafollowingthecriteriadescribedinSectionA1.2.2ofAppendix1andwillbeprovidedtotheprojectproponent.BaselineADwillbeallocatedbyVerratoeachproject’sUDefLBfollowingSectionA1.4.3ofAppendix1.Theprojectproponentmustsubtractfromtheproject'sbaselineUDefLBADanyactivitydatathatisallocatedtootherVCSAFOLUPAsthatintersectwiththeproject'sUDefLB.ThesubtractionentersintoforceoncetheintersectingVCSAFOLUprojectshavesubmittedaninitialvalidationreporttotheVerraRegistryandnosoonerthantheintersectingprojects’startdate.TheonusisontheprojectproponenttodemonstratethisandontheVVBtoconfirmit.OncetheUDefLBADallocatedtotheintersectingVCSAFOLUPAshasbeenexcludedfromtheproject’sbaseline,theprojectmaystopmonitoringtheUDefLBADintheintersectingareaandrelatedleakageemissionsmaybeomitted.LeakageemissionsassociatedwithotheroverlappingVCSREDD4projectleakagebelt(s)maybeomittedbyaprojectwhere:1)AleakagebeltagreementissignedbetweenprojectproponentsthatclearlydefinesthelocationoftheboundariesofthedifferentleakagebeltareasoverlappingwithUDefLB,aswellastherelatedmonitoringresponsibilities;and2)AlloftheVCSREDDprojectsthatarepartytotheagreementhavesubmittedverificationreportsinthefiveyearspriortothedateonwhichtheprojectrequestedverification.Whenrequestingverification,aprojectmustdemonstratethatpartiestotheleakagebeltagreementhaveverifiedinthelastfiveyears.5Whereanypartytotheagreementterminatesitsactivitiesorfailstopresentaverificationreportformorethanfiveconsecutiveyears,theexcludedareasanddiscountedADarereintroducedtotheUDefLBoftherelevantprojectsduringthefirstsubsequentmonitoringperiod.TheomissiononlyappliestotheUDefLBportionsthatwillbemonitoredbytheotherproject,aspertheleakagebeltagreement.Whereleakageemissionsareomitted,theprojectmustdiscountthecorrespondingallocatedbaselineAD,reducingthebaselineADbytheamountofbaselinedeforestationallocatedtotheareamonitoredbytheotherproject.Theprojectdescriptionmustclearlydescribetheexcludedareasandtherelateddiscountingcalculations.4Limitedtoprojectsthatusethismodule5ThismaybedemonstratedusingtheVerraRegistryoranyotherevidenceshowingthattheotherprojecthasinitiatedverification.6VMD0055,v1.0Post-validationchangesmustbedescribedandassessedbytheVVBasprojectdescriptiondeviations.Unlesstheconditionsabovearemet,bothprojectswillbeallocatedADfortheoverlappingUDefLBagainstwhichtheywillmonitordeforestation,aspertheprocessdetailedinthismodule.5.1.4LandAvailableforActivity-ShiftingLeakageGeographicallymobileagentsmaydisplacetheiractivitiesoutsidetheUDefPAandbeyondtheUDefLB.Theareaavailableforthiskindofactivityshiftingcorrespondstoallpotentiallyarable,6physicallyaccessibleandunprotectedlandinthecountry.ThespatialextentoflandavailableforgeographicallymobileactivityshiftingwillbedefinedbyVerrafollowingthecriteriaandproceduresdescribedinSectionA2.1ofAppendix2.ThiswillbeprovidedbyVerratotheprojectproponentuponreceiptoftheADBaselineAllocationRequestForm.5.1.5LeakageManagementZonesLeakagemanagementzonesarepartoftheoverallprojectdesign.Thesearenon-forestareasunderthecontroloftheproject,andwheretheprojectproponentintendstoimplementactivitiestominimizetheriskofactivity-shiftingleakage,suchasafforestation,reforestation,enhancedcroppingorgrazinglandmanagement.LeakagemanagementzonesmayoverlapwithanotherVCSAFOLUproject.Emissionsassociatedwiththeimplementationofleakagemitigationmeasures(seeSection5.3.4.7)maybeomittedforportionsofleakagemanagementzonesthatfallwithinanotherVCSAFOLUprojectwhentheseemissionsareaccountedforbytheotherproject.Forexample,agroforestryactivitiesimplementedtoreducedeforestationmayberegisteredasaseparateproject(orasanARRcomponentofthesameproject)andrelatedemissionsomittedbecausetheyareaccountedforintheframeworkofthisotherproject(orothercomponentofamultipleactivityproject).5.1.6ProjectActivitiesRegionTheprojectactivitiesregioncomprisestheUDefPA,theUDefLBandthesurroundingdeforestedareasextending10kmfromtheUDefPA.Thisistheregioninwhichthehistoricalagentsanddriversofdeforestationareanalyzedtodeterminethemostplausiblebaselinescenario.6LandconsideredavailableforactivityshiftingleakagebeyondtheUDefLBcomprisesarableland(i.e.,landusedforcropproduction)ratherthanallagriculturalland(i.e.,landusedforcropproductionorranching)duetothechallengeofaccuratelyidentifyingareasthatarepotentiallysuitableforranchingacrossanentirecountry.7VMD0055,v1.05.2DescriptionofBaselineScenarioProjectsmustdeterminethemostplausiblebaselinescenariofollowingSection6ofVM0048.QuantificationofbaselineemissionsisdescribedinSection5.3.2.Oncedetermined,thebaselinescenariomustbedescribedthroughadetailedanalysisoftheagents,proximatecauses,driversandunderlyingcausesofdeforestationintheprojectactivitiesregion.Understanding“who”isdeforestingandwhatdrivestheirdecisionisnecessarytounderstandtheriskofactivity-shiftingleakageandtodesigneffectivemeasurestoaddressdeforestation.Alloftheanalysisdescribedinthissectionmustbesummarizedintheprojectdescription.Thebaselinescenariodescriptionmustbesupportedbyevidencesuchasexistingstudies,maps(includingthejurisdictionalforestcoverbenchmarkmap(FCBM)andriskmap),expertconsultations,fieldsurveys(suchasparticipatoryruralappraisal)andotherverifiablesourcesofinformation.Notwithstandingotherrulesandrequirements,themostplausiblebaselinescenariodescribedinthissectionmustatminimumbeconsistentwithandreferredtowhen:1)Describingtheconditionspriortoprojectinitiation;2)Identifyingthestakeholderstobeengagedandconsulted;3)Selectingcarbonpoolsandestimatingthepost-deforestationcarbonstocks(Section5.3.2.3);4)Assessingandquantifyingtheriskofleakagebygeographicallyconstrainedandgeographicallymobileagents(Section5.2.1);5)Estimatingexanteprojecteffectivenessatreducingdeforestation(Section5.3.3.1);6)CreatingtheForestStratificationMap(Section5.3.2.1);and7)Assessingthenon-permanenceinternalandexternalrisksfollowingthemostrecentversionoftheVCSAFOLUNon-PermanenceRiskTool.5.2.1IdentificationandCharacterizationofDeforestationAgentsIdentifythemaingroupsofdeforestationagents(e.g.,farmers,ranchers,loggers)thatwoulddeforesttheprojectactivitiesregionintheabsenceofprojectimplementation.Describehowtheycontributetodeforestationandtheirrelativeimportancetohistoricallanduseandlandcoverchange.Foreachidentifiedgroup,providethefollowinginformation:1)Nameofthegroupofdeforestationagents;2)Briefdescriptionoftherelateddeforestationactivity(e.g.,slashandburnagriculture,unsustainablelogging)andthemainsocial,economicandculturalfeaturesthatare8VMD0055,v1.0relevanttounderstandwhytheagentgroupisdeforesting(e.g.,subsistenceversuscommercialactivities);3)Briefassessmentoftheagentpopulationsize(e.g.,numberofhouseholds,numberoffarmers)anditsmostlikelychangeinthefuture.Forgroupsofagentsthatareexpectedtoincreaseinnumber,specifywhethertheincreasewillbeduetomigrationfromoutsidetheUDefPAandUDefLB.4)Foreachidentifiedgroup,describethealternativeand/ormitigationactivitiesthatwillbefacilitatedbytheproject,whereapplicable.Anavoidingunplanneddeforestationproject,byprotectingtheUDefPA,maycausesomeportionofdeforestationagentstorelocatetheiractivitiestoanotherlocation(i.e.,be“displaced”fromtheUDefPA).Twotypesofdeforestationagentsmaybedisplaced,asdescribedbelowandsummarizedinTable1.Aspartoftheanalysisofthedeforestationagents,assesswhethereachgroupofagentsshouldbeconsideredgeographicallyconstrainedorwhethertheymayshifttheiractivityoutsidetheUDefLB.ThecharacterizationmustbebasedontheproportionoftheseagentsthathavemigratedintotheprojectactivitiesregioninthelastfiveyearsandmustbeconfirmedthroughlocalsurveyasdescribedinSection5.3.4.4.Table1:SummaryofactivitiesofgeographicallyconstrainedandgeographicallymobileagentsofdeforestationinthebaselineandprojectscenariosUnplannedResidingImpactintheUDefEvolutionofPracticesduetoDeforestationLocationatPAandUDefLBProjectImplementation(ProjectAgentTypeStartoftheUndertheBaselineScenario)BaselineScenarioValidityPeriodGeographicallyResidingwithinorCausesdeforestationAgentsmay:constrainedneartheUDefPAintheUDefPAandintheUDefLB•ContinuecausingdeforestationintheUDefPA(activitiesinefficient)•Adoptnewpracticesandstopdeforesting(noleakage)•DisplacetheiractivitiesinthenearestaccessibleforestrepresentedasUDefLB(leakage)9VMD0055,v1.0UnplannedResidingImpactintheUDefEvolutionofPracticesduetoDeforestationLocationatPAandUDefLBProjectImplementation(ProjectAgentTypeStartoftheUndertheBaselineScenario)BaselineScenarioValidityPeriodGeographicallyResidingMigratesintoornearAgentsmay:mobileanywhereinthetheUDefPAorUDefcountryoutsideLB,andcauses•MigratetotheUDefPAorUDeftheUDefPAanddeforestationintheLBandcausedeforestationUDefLBUDefPAorUDefLB(activitiesinefficient)•MigratetoanareaotherthantheUDefPAorUDefLBwithoutcausingdeforestation(noleakage)•MigratetoanareaotherthantheUDefPAorUDefLBandcausedeforestation(leakage)Inmostcases,theprojectscenariowillresultinacombinationofthepossibilitieslisted(i.e.,aportionofthegroupofagentswillstopdeforestingordisplacetheiractivitiesinsideoroutsideoftheUDefLB).Notethatinthiscontext,theterm“displacement”doesnotmeanthatdeforestationagentslivinginorneartheUDefPAorUDefLBarerelocatedtootherareasthroughprojectimplementation.Itreferstothedisplacementofforecastedbaselineactivities(activitiesthathavenotoccurred)intootherlocations.Forgeographicallymobiledeforestationagents,displacementmeansthatdeforestationagentsandtheactivitiestheyconductarerelocatedfromtheirpointoforiginoutsidetheUDefPAandUDefLBtoanotherlocationthatisalsooutsidethePAandLB.ThismovementoutsideoftheUDefPAreplacesmigrationintothePA,asoriginallyprojectedinthebaseline.5.2.2IdentificationofDriversofDeforestationIdentifyandanalyzethefactorsthatdrivetheland-usedecisionsofeachgroupofdeforestationagentsinordertoidentifytheproximatecausesofdeforestation.Firstdescribeand,wherepossible,quantifythedeforestationdrivers(e.g.,pricesofagricultural,mineral,timberorothercommodities,costsofagriculturalinputs,populationdensityandgrowthandruralwages).Second,describedriversthatexplainthelocationofdeforestation(accesstoforests,slope,proximitytomarkets,proximitytoexistingorindustrialfacilities,proximitytoexistingsettlements,landmanagementtype).Foreachofthesetwosetsofdeforestationdrivers:1)Provideevidenceforonetofivekeyvariablesindicatingadriverofdeforestationintheprojectactivitiesregionduringthehistoricalreferenceperiod(HRP);and10VMD0055,v1.02)Brieflydescribe,foreachmainagentgroupidentifiedinSection5.2.1,howthekeydrivershaveandwillmostlikelyimpacttheagents’decisiontodeforest;and3)Provideinformationaboutlikelyfuturedevelopmentofeachdeforestationdriver(e.g.,howagrowinggeographicallyconstrainedpopulationmightexertgreaterpressureontheforestthroughfirewoodcollectionoranincreasingpriceforamineralislikelytodriveanincreaseinillegalmining).5.2.3IdentificationoftheUnderlyingCausesofDeforestationTheagents’characteristicsanddecisionsarethemselvesdeterminedbytheunderlyingcausesofdeforestation,suchasland-usepoliciesandtheirenforcement,populationpressure,socioeconomicdynamics,warandothertypesofconflicts,systemsofpropertyownershipandclimatechange.ListonetofivekeyunderlyingcausesandciteanyrelevantsourceofinformationthatprovidesevidencethattheidentifiedvariableshavebeenanunderlyingcauseofdeforestationduringtheHRP.Brieflydescribehoweachunderlyingcauseisimpactingthedecisionsofthemainagentgroupstodeforest.Foreachunderlyingcause,provideinformationaboutitslikelyfuturedevelopment.5.2.4AnalysisofChainofEventsLeadingtoDeforestationBasedonthehistoricalevidencecollected,theprojectmustdeterminetherelationshipsbetweenmainagentgroups,keydriversandunderlyingcausesandexplainthesequenceofeventsthattypicallyhasledandmostlikelywillleadtodeforestation.5.3QuantificationofGHGEmissionReductions5.3.1InitialProjectBaselineValidityPeriod(BVP)UnderthisModuleWhereaprojectvalidatesortransitionstoVM0048andthismoduleaftertheinitialyearofajurisdictionalBVP(e.g.,BVP1inFigure1below),aninitialbaselinevalidityperiodwillbeapplied.TherearetwooptionswhenmovingtothejurisdictionalBVP:1)Option1:TheprojectproponentchoosestobeallocatedUDefADfromthesubsequentjurisdictionalBVP(e.g.,BVP2inFigure1)whenthatBVPbegins;or2)Option2:TheinitialprojectBVPisextendedintothesubsequentjurisdictionalBVPforthedurationsetoutintheVCSStandard7ortwoyears,whicheverisshorter.AftertheinitialprojectBVPends,theprojectmustadoptanallocationfromtherespectivejurisdictionalbaseline.ThisoptiononlyapplieswheretherehasbeennoVerra-endorsedjurisdictionalBVPforfiveyearsormore.7ThisinformationmaybefoundinthesectionoftheVCSStandardrelatedtobaselineduration.11VMD0055,v1.0SubsequentprojectBVPsmustbethesamedurationasthejurisdictionalBVP.IntheexampleillustratedinFigure1,thesix-yearjurisdictionalBVPstartsin2020andaprojectregisterswitha2024startdate.InOption1,theprojectwouldusetheproject-specificallocatedADfortwoyears,whileinOption2theproject-specificallocatedADwouldbeusedforfouryears.IftheprojectselectsOption1,ittransitionstojurisdictionalBVP2in2026(i.e.,whenthatBVPbegins).IftheprojectchoosesOption2,ittransitionsin2028–twoyearsintothenewBVP.The2028baselineisvaliduntilthenextjurisdictionalBVPtransition,in2032,whentheprojectisallocatedADforthenextjurisdictionalBVP.Figure1:Potentialoptionsforprojects’initialbaselinevalidityperiod,includingexampledatesForprojectsthattransitiontoVM0048andthismoduleafterbeingregisteredusingVM0006,VM0007,VM0009,VM0015orVM0037,theinitialBVP(BVP1inFigure1)startsonthedatethattheprojectfirstverifiesusingVM0048.5.3.2BaselineEmissionsThekeystepstobeundertakenbytheprojectproponenttoestimatetheprojectbaselinearedescribedinFigure2.12VMD0055,v1.0Figure2:ProcessforestimationoftheprojectbaselineStratifyforestsintheprojectareaandleakagebeltApplyallocatedbaselineunplanneddeforestationtotheforeststrataEstimateuncertainty-discountedemissionfactorsforeachstratumEstimateannualnetbaselineemissionsforthebaselinevalidityperiod5.3.2.1CreationofForestStratificationMapProjectproponentsmustuseX-STRtodefinetheforeststratausedforcalculatingUDefPAandUDefLBemissions.Separatestratadelineationisrequiredforareasthatexceedtwohectaresandmeetanyofthefollowingcriteria:1)Forestedwetlandsoils;82)Treecoverthatisnotconsideredundertherelevantnationalforestdefinition(e.g.,treecoverinagriculturallandscapes);or3)Areasofforestthatwereplantedorreestablishedwithin30yearspriortothestartoftheproject,whereversuchforestsmaybeunambiguouslyidentifiedwithreadilyavailabledatasetsorrecords.Aforeststratificationmapdepictingstrataandforestclassesmustbedevelopedoradopted.Themapmust:a)Beidenticalto,ordirectlyderivedfrom,thespatialstratificationusedtoestimateprojectcarbonstocksfromforestinventories(e.g.,amapwithahighernumberof8Forguidanceonidentifyingwetlandsoils,seeChapter1.2inHiraishietal.(2014).13VMD0055,v1.0classesusedforforestinventorymaybesimplifiedbycombiningclassesaftertheinventoryanalysisiscomplete);andb)EncompasstheUDefPAandUDefLBandusethesamesetofforeststratadefinitionsinbothareas.Thespatialaccuracyoftheforeststratificationmapwillbereflectedintheuncertaintyofcarbonstockestimatesforeachforeststratum.Where,duringmonitoring,anaturaldisturbance9isidentifiedtohaveimpactedacontiguousareaof100haorgreaterwithintheUDefPAand/orUDefLBduringtheBVP,thedisturbedareamustbedelineatedandtreatedasaseparateforeststratum.Thenewstratummustbedescribedandbaselineemissionsmustbeupdatedthroughaprojectdescriptiondeviation.WheretheeventqualifiesasalossaspertheVCSProgramDefinitions,applicableVCSrulesandrequirementswillapply.Afteraloss,baselineemissionsmustbeupdatedthroughaprojectdescriptiondeviation.5.3.2.2EstimationofBaselineAnnualUnplannedDeforestationwithintheProjectBoundaryThroughtheADBaselineAllocationReport,whichwillbepostedonaproject’spageintheVerraRegistry,Verra10willprovideprojectproponentswiththeprojectedbaselineannualareaofunplanneddeforestationforeachriskclassrintheUDefPA(ADPA-UDef,r)andUDefLB(ADLB-UDef,r).Todeterminebaselineemissionsfromunplanneddeforestation,projectproponentsmustusethefollowinginformationfromtheADBaselineAllocationReport:1)ParametersADPA-UDef,randADLB-UDef,r;2)Theforeststratificationmap;3)Thejurisdictionaldeforestationriskmap;and4)PotentialoverlappingVCSAFOLUPAsandLBs(seeSection5.1.3).ThebaselineannualareaofunplanneddeforestationallocatedtoeachUDefPAandUDefLBriskclass(ADPA-UDef,r,ADLB-UDef,r)mustbeallocatedamongforeststratawithintheseareasbasedontherelativeareaofeachforeststratumwithineachriskclass.9Suchastectonicactivity(earthquake,landslide,volcano),extremeweather(hurricane),pest,droughtorfirethatresultinunavoidabledegradationofforestcarbonstocks10Throughoutthismodule,VerraisreferredtoastheentitygeneratingandissuingtheADBaselineAllocationReport.WhereaprojectistobenestedinaregisteredJNRScenario1or2program,thejurisdictionalproponentisresponsibleforgeneratingandallocatingthisinformation.14VMD0055,v1.0WhereotherVCSAFOLUPAsorLBsareexcludedfromtheUDefLB,asperSection5.1.3,theforeststratificationmapmustbeadjustedtoexcludeanystrataexistingonlyintheintersectingareas,beforeADallocationamongtheremainingstrata.TheareasofforeststratumiinriskclassrintheUDefPAandUDefLBaretermedAPA-UDef,r,iandALB-UDef,r,i,respectively.Theseparametersmustbecalculatedbyspatialoverlayofthefollowinglayers:1)DigitalmapsofUDefPAboundaries;2)DigitalmapsofUDefLBboundaries;3)Foreststratificationmap;and4)Jurisdictionaldeforestationriskmap.TheallocationofADtoforeststrataintheprojectareaisdescribedinEquation(1):𝑅𝐴𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑟,𝑖𝐴𝐷𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡=∑(𝐴𝐷𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑟×∑𝑀𝑖=1)(1)𝐴𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑟,𝑖𝑟=1Where:ADBSL,PA-UDef,i,t=UDefADinthebaselinescenarioallocatedtoforeststratumiintheUDefPAforyeart(ha)ADPA-UDef,r=UDefADallocatedtotheUDefPAforriskclassr(ha)APA-UDef,r,i=AreaofforeststratumiinriskclassrintheUDefPAatthestartoftheBVP(ha)i=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratumr=1,2,3,…,Rriskclasst=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheprojectTheallocationofADtoforeststrataintheleakagebeltisdescribedinEquation(2):𝑅𝐴𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑟,𝑖𝐴𝐷𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡=∑(𝐴𝐷𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑟×∑𝑀𝑖=1)(2)𝐴𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑟,𝑖𝑟=1Where:ADBSL,LB-UDef,i,t=UDefADinthebaselinescenarioallocatedtoforeststratumiintheUDefLBforADLB-UDef,ryeart(ha)=UDefADallocatedtotheUDefLBforriskclassr(ha)ALB-UDef,r,i=AreaofforeststratumiinriskclassrintheUDefLBatthestartoftheBVP(ha)15VMD0055,v1.0i=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratumr=1,2,3,…,Rriskclasst=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheprojectNewIdentifiedExclusionsWhere,throughprojectmonitoring,anewidentifiedexcludedareaofdeforestationisdetected(seeTable11inAppendix1foradescriptionofidentifiedexclusions),suchareasmaybespatiallydelineated.Theriskclassforidentifiedexclusionsischangedto“excludedriskclass”(r=exclude).Forsuchareas,ADPA-UDef,r=excludeandADLB-UDef,r=excludearebothsettozeroforallyearsofthemonitoringperiod.FurtherdetailisprovidedinSection5.3.3.2Step1below.Suchareasmustberecordedwithdescriptionandsupportingimageryasevidenceofreasonforexclusion.5.3.2.3EstimationofEmissionsfromCarbonStockChangesThecarbonstocksbeforeandafterdeforestationfortheforeststratawithintheUDefPAandUDefLBmustbeestimatedtoallowestimationofthechangeincarbonstocksresultingfromdeforestationwithineachforeststratum.Step1:EstimationofCarbonStocksperForestStratumEstimationofForestCarbonStocksCarbonstocksineachofthepoolsselectedfortheprojectareestimatedusingmodulesCP-AB,CP-D,CP-L,CP-SandCP-W.ThemodulesandderivedparametersarelistedinTable2.Table2:Carbonpoolsusedinthismodule,withoriginatingmodulesandresultingparametersPoolModuleParametersParameterDescriptionAbovegroundtreeCP-ABCAB_tree,iMeancarbonstockintheabovegroundtreebiomassbiomassCAB_tree,post,ipoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)CBB_tree,iBelowgroundtreeCP-ABCBB_tree,post,iMeancarbonstockinthepost-deforestationbiomassabovegroundtreebiomasspoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)Meancarbonstockinthebelowgroundtreebiomasspoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)Meancarbonstockinthepost-deforestationbelowgroundtreebiomasspoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)16VMD0055,v1.0PoolModuleParametersParameterDescriptionAbovegroundnon-CP-ABCAB_nontree,iMeancarbonstockintheabovegroundnon-treetreebiomassCAB_nontree,post,iwoodybiomasspoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)Meancarbonstockinthepost-deforestationabovegroundnon-treewoodybiomasspoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)Belowgroundnon-CP-ABCBB_nontree,iMeancarbonstockinthebelowgroundnon-treewoodytreebiomassCBB_nontree,post,ibiomasspoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)Meancarbonstockinthepost-deforestationbelowgroundnon-treewoodybiomasspoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)DeadwoodCP-DCDW,iCarbonstockinthedeadwoodpoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)CDW,post,iCarbonstockinthepost-deforestationdeadwoodpoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)LitterCP-LCLI,iCarbonstockinthelitterpoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)CLI,post,iCarbonstockinthepost-deforestationlitterpoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)SoilorganicCP-SCSOC,iMeancarbonstockinthesoilorganiccarbonpoolincarbonforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)CSOC,post,iMeancarbonstockinthepost-deforestationsoilorganiccarbonpoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)(parameterisCSOC,PD-BSL,iinCP-S)HarvestedwoodCP-WCWP,iMeancarbonstocksenteringthewoodproductspoolproductsCWP100,iatthetimeofdeforestationfromforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)Carbonstockenteringthewoodproductspoolfromstratumiatthetimeofdeforestationthatisexpectedtobeemittedover100years(tCO2e/ha)IninstanceswheretheUDefLBcontainsforeststratanotfoundwithintheUDefPA(andnotexpectedtobefoundintheUDefPAundereitherthebaselineorprojectscenarios),carbonpoolestimatesfromanationaldataset(e.g.,forestreferenceemissionlevel(FREL)ornationalforestinventory)orpeer-reviewedpublishedsourcemaybeused.17VMD0055,v1.0EstimationofNon-ForestCarbonStocksThecarbonstocksfollowingdeforestationareassumedtobethearea-weightedaveragestocksofallpost-deforestationlanduseclassespresentwithina10-kmwideareasurroundingtheUDefPA,referencingthemostcurrentlanduse/landcoverclassificationcoveringthejurisdiction.Thisarea-weightedaveragestockofthepost-deforestationlandusesmaybecalculatedforeachforeststratumseparately.Alternatively,asinglearea-weightedaveragestockofthepost-deforestationlanduseclassmaybecalculatedandappliedtoallforeststrata.Step2:EstimationofEmissionsfromCarbonStockChangesStockchanges(ΔCp)ineachcarbonpoolarecalculatedbysubtractingthepost-deforestationcarbonstocksfromforestcarbonstocks.ThestockchangesarecalculatedforeachpoolineachforeststratumusingEquation(3),whichshouldbeappliedtoalloftheparametersincludedinTable2.∆𝐶𝑝,𝑖=𝐶𝑝,𝑖−𝐶𝑝,𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑡,𝑖(3)Where:EstimatedemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinpoolpinforeststratumiΔCp,i=(tCO2e/ha)Cp,i=Estimatedcarbonstockinpoolpofforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)Cp,post,i=Estimatedcarbonstockinpost-deforestationpoolpinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)p=Carbonpool:abovegroundtreebiomass(AB_tree),abovegroundnon-treebiomass(AB_nontree),belowgroundtreebiomass(BB_tree),belowgroundnon-treei=biomass(BB_nontree),deadwood(DW),litter(LI),soilorganiccarbon(SOC)andharvestedwoodproducts(WP)1,2,3,…,MforeststratumStep3:EvaluationofUncertaintyofCarbonStockEstimatesEstimatesofthecarbonstocksineachcarbonpoolmustbeaccompaniedbyanestimateofuncertainty.Thepercentageuncertaintyofeachcarbonstockestimateisdefinedasthehalfwidthofthetwo-sided90percentconfidenceintervaldividedbytheestimate.Thefollowingrequirementsapply:1)Wherecarbonstockestimatesarederivedfromsampling(e.g.,measuringabovegroundbiomassorothercarbonpoolsinsampleplots),uncertaintymustbeatminimumderivedfromthesamplinguncertainty.18VMD0055,v1.02)Whereliteraturesources(includingIPCCguidance)areusedforcarbonstockestimates,thesesourcesmustalsoincludeanestimateoftheuncertaintyand/ordataranges(datarangesmaybeusedasproxiesofconfidenceintervals).3)Theprojectdocumentationmustincludeatableofcarbonstockestimatesineachpoolandforeststratum(meanand90percentconfidenceinterval)andanindicationofwhichsourcesofuncertaintywereincluded.4)Theuncertaintyofparametersusedintheestimationofstocks(e.g.,carbonfraction,wooddensity,soilorganiccarbonstockchangefactorsandroot-to-shootratio)mustbeincludedandpropagated.Theuncertaintyderivedfromallometricequationsforabovegroundorbelowgroundtreebiomass,orfromthevariablesusedtoparameterizetheequations,isnotincluded.Estimatingtheuncertaintyassociatedwithmeasurementerror(e.g.,treeheightordiametermeasurements)isnotrequired.Toevaluateuncertainty,thestandarderrorofeachestimate11mustbecalculated.ThestandarderrorofestimateAisdenotedasS(A).Theuncertaintyofthisestimateisevaluatedintermsofthehalf-widthofitstwo-sided90percentconfidenceintervalandisdenotedasU(A)=talpha=10%×S(A),wheretalpha=10%isthetvalueforatwo-sided90percentconfidenceinterval.ThepercentageuncertaintyistheuncertaintyexpressedasapercentageoftheestimateandisdenotedasU%(A)=100×talpha=10%×S(A)/A.Errorpropagationisnecessarytotrackuncertaintythroughthevariouscalculationstepsinvolvedinestimatingcarbonstocks.TheequationsinTable3summarizesimplifiedrulesoferrorpropagationthatmustbeusedwhencarryingoutsummations,subtractions,multiplicationsanddivisionsoftwovariablesAandB.Multiplicationwithanexactlyknowncoefficientcisalsoshown.Table3:Equationsforerrorpropagationf(A,B,c)StandardErrorofEstimatePercentageUncertaintyofEstimate𝐴+𝐵𝑆(𝐴+𝐵)=√𝑆(𝐴)2+𝑆(𝐵)2𝑈%(𝐴+𝐵)=100×𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑝ℎ𝑎=10%×√𝑆(𝐴)2+𝑆(𝐵)2𝐴+𝐵11Itisimportanttodistinguishbetweenthestandarddeviationofapopulationparameterandthestandarddeviationoftheestimatorofthatpopulationparameter.Forexample,whereapopulationmeanisestimatedfromsamplemeasurements,theestimatorwillbethesamplemean.Thestandarddeviationofthemeanestimate(oftenreferredtoasstandarderror)willconsiderthenumberofsampleunits,n,andiscalculatedbydividingthestandarddeviationbythesquarerootof(n−1).Forclarity,thetermstandarderrorisusedinthismoduletorefertothestandarddeviationofanestimate.19VMD0055,v1.0𝑆(𝐴×𝐵)𝑈%(𝐴×𝐵)=100×𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑝ℎ𝑎=10%×𝐴×𝐵𝐴×𝐵=𝐴×𝐵×√(𝑆(𝐴))2+(𝑆(𝐵))2√(𝑆(𝐴𝐴))2+(𝑆(𝐵𝐵))2𝐴𝐵×𝐴×𝐵𝐴–𝐵𝑆(𝐴−𝐵)=√𝑆(𝐴)2+𝑆(𝐵)2𝑈%(𝐴−𝐵)=100×𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑝ℎ𝑎=10%×√𝑆(𝐴)2+𝑆(𝐵)2𝐴−𝐵𝐴𝑆(𝐴)=𝐴×√(𝑆(𝐴))2+(𝑆(𝐵))2𝐴𝐴√(𝑆(𝐴))2+(𝑆(𝐵))2𝑈%()=100×𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑝ℎ𝑎=10%××𝐴𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐴𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐴𝐵𝑐×𝐴𝑆(𝑐×𝐴)=𝑐×𝑆(𝐴)𝑈%(𝑐×𝐴)=100×𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑝ℎ𝑎=10%×𝑆(𝐴𝐴)EstimationofUncertaintyforEachPoolandStratumTheuncertaintyofeachcarbonpoolandstratummustfirstbepropagatedusingtheequationforsubtractionfromTable3asfollows:𝑈(∆𝐶𝑝,𝑖)=𝑈(𝐶𝑝,𝑖−𝐶𝑝,𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑡,𝑖)=√𝑈(𝐶𝑝,𝑖)2+𝑈(𝐶𝑝,𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑡,𝑖)2(4)Where:U()=Uncertaintyashalf-widthofthetwo-sided90percentconfidenceinterval(tCO2e/ha)ΔCp,i=Estimatedemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinpoolpofforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)Cp,i=Estimatedcarbonstockinpoolpofforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)Cp,post,i=Estimatedcarbonstockinpost-deforestationpoolpinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)p=Pool:abovegroundtreebiomass(AB_tree),abovegroundnon-treebiomass(AB_nontree),belowgroundtreebiomass(BB_tree),belowgroundnon-treebiomass(BB_nontree),deadwood(DW),litter(LI),soilorganiccarbon(SOC)andharvestedwoodproducts(WP)i=1,2,3,…,MforeststratumStep4:EstimationofanUncertaintyDiscountFactorConservativeestimationofchangesincarbonstocksisachievedbyapplyinganuncertaintydiscountfactor.20VMD0055,v1.0AveragingCarbonStockChangesOverForestStrataandCarbonPoolsToestablishtheuncertaintydiscountfactor,firststockchangesareaveragedoverforeststrataandcarbonpools.ThestockchangesareaveragedovertheareaofUDefADwithineachforeststratumoverthebaselineperiodforeachpoolseparately,usinganarea-weightedaverage.TheareadatatobeusedforaveragingarethoseobtainedinSection5.3.2.2.Thestockchangesarecalculatedasfollows:∑𝑀𝑖=1𝐴𝐷𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡×∆𝐶𝑝,𝑖𝑊∆𝐶𝑝=∑𝑀𝑖=1𝐴𝐷𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡(5)Where:WΔCp=UDefADbaselineweightedaverageemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinpoolp(tCO2e/ha)ADBSL,PA-UDef,i,t=UDefADinthebaselinescenarioallocatedtoforeststratumiintheUDefΔCp,i=PAforyeart(ha)Estimatedemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinpoolpinforeststratumip=(tCO2e/ha)i=Pool:abovegroundtreebiomass(AB_tree),abovegroundnon-treebiomass(AB_nontree),belowgroundtreebiomass(BB_tree),belowgroundnon-treet=biomass(BB_nontree),deadwood(DW),litter(LI),soilorganiccarbon(SOC)andharvestedwoodproducts(WP)1,2,3,…,Mforeststratum1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheprojectTheUDefADbaselineweightedstockchangesarethensummedacrossallrelevantcarbonpools.Toestablishthediscountfactor,thismustbeundertakenforallpoolstogether,althoughsoilorganiccarbonandcarbonstocksenteringthewoodproductspoolsarekeptseparatewhenemissionfactorsareappliedtoAD.ThesoilorganicpoolisderivedfrommoduleCP-SwithΔCSOC,i=CSOC,i−CSOC,post.i.𝑊∆𝐶=𝑊∆𝐶𝐴𝐵𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑒+𝑊∆𝐶𝐵𝐵𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑒+𝑊∆𝐶𝐴𝐵𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑒+𝑊∆𝐶𝐵𝐵𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑒+𝑊∆𝐶𝐷𝑊+𝑊∆𝐶𝐿𝐼+𝑊∆𝐶𝑆𝑂𝐶−𝑊𝐶𝑊𝑃+𝑊𝐶𝑊𝑃100(6)Where:=OverallUDefADbaselineweightedaverageemissionsfromcarbonstockWΔCchanges(tCO2e/ha)21VMD0055,v1.0WΔCAB_tree=UDefADbaselineweightedaverageemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeintheabovegroundtreebiomasspool(tCO2e/ha)WΔCBB_tree=UDefADbaselineweightedaverageemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthebelowgroundtreebiomasspool(tCO2e/ha)WΔCAB_nontree=UDefADbaselineweightedaverageemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeintheabovegroundnon-treewoodybiomasspool(tCO2e/ha)WΔCBB_nontree=UDefADbaselineweightedaverageemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthebelowgroundnon-treewoodybiomasspool(tCO2e/ha)WΔCDW=UDefADbaselineweightedaverageemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthedeadwoodpool(tCO2e/ha)WΔCLI=UDefADbaselineweightedaverageemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthelitterpool(tCO2e/ha)WΔCSOC=UDefADbaselineweightedaverageemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthesoilorganiccarbonpool(tCO2e/ha)WCWP=UDefADbaselineweightedaveragecarbonstockenteringthewoodproductspoolatthetimeofdeforestation(tCO2e/ha)WCWP100=UDefADbaselineweightedaveragecarbonstockenteringthewoodproductspoolatthetimeofdeforestationthatisexpectedtobeemittedover100years(tCO2e/ha)Uncertaintymustbepropagatedaccordingly.Indoingthis,theADareavaluesareconsidered,forsimplicity,assimplemultiplicationfactorswithnouncertainty.√∑𝑀𝑖=1(𝐴𝐷𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡×𝑈(∆𝐶𝑝,𝑖))2(7)𝑈(𝑊∆𝐶𝑝)=∑𝑀𝑖=1𝐴𝐷𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡Where:U()=Uncertaintyashalf-widthofthetwo-sided90percentconfidenceinterval(tCO2e/ha)WΔCp=UDefADbaselineweightedaverageemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinpoolp(tCO2e/ha)ADBSL,PA-UDef,i,t=UDefADinthebaselinescenarioallocatedtoforeststratumiintheUDefPAforyeart(ha)ΔCp,i=Estimatedemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinpoolpinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)p=Pool:abovegroundtreebiomass(AB_tree),abovegroundnon-treebiomass(AB_nontree),belowgroundtreebiomass(BB_tree),belowgroundnon-tree22VMD0055,v1.0biomass(BB_nontree),deadwood(DW),litter(LI),soilorganiccarbon(SOC)andharvestedwoodproducts(WP)I=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratumt=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheprojectFurther,uncertaintymustbepropagatedusingtheequationsforadditionandsubtractionfromTable3perEquations(8)and(9).𝑈(𝑊∆𝐶𝐴𝐵)2+𝑈(𝑊∆𝐶𝐵𝐵)2+𝑈(𝑊∆𝐶𝐴𝐵)2𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑒(8)𝑈(𝑊∆𝐶)=√+𝑈(𝑊∆𝐶𝐵𝐵)2+𝑈(𝑊∆𝐶𝐷𝑊)2+𝑈(𝑊∆𝐶𝐿𝐼)2𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑒+𝑈(𝑊∆𝐶𝑆𝑂𝐶)2+𝑈(𝑊𝐶𝑊𝑃)2+𝑈(𝑊𝐶𝑊𝑃100)2𝑈%(𝑊∆𝐶)=100×𝑈(𝑊∆𝐶)(9)𝑊∆𝐶Where:U()=Uncertaintyashalf-widthofthetwo-sided90percentconfidenceinterval(tCO2e/ha)U%()=Percentageuncertainty(i.e.,uncertaintyexpressedasapercentageoftheestimate)(%)WΔC=OverallUDefADbaselineweightedaverageemissionsfromcarbonstockchanges(tCO2e/ha)WΔCAB_tree=UDefADbaselineweightedaverageemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeintheabovegroundtreebiomasspool(tCO2e/ha)WΔCBB_tree=UDefADbaselineweightedaverageemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthebelowgroundtreebiomasspool(tCO2e/ha)WΔCAB_nontree=UDefADbaselineweightedaverageemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeintheabovegroundnon-treewoodybiomasspool(tCO2e/ha)WΔCBB_nontree=UDefADbaselineweightedaverageemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthebelowgroundnon-treewoodybiomasspool(tCO2e/ha)WΔCDW=UDefADbaselineweightedaverageemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthedeadwoodpool(tCO2e/ha)WΔCLI=UDefADbaselineweightedaverageemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthelitterpool(tCO2e/ha)WΔCSOC=UDefADbaselineweightedaverageemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthesoilorganiccarbonpool(tCO2e/ha)23VMD0055,v1.0WCWP=UDefADbaselineweightedaveragecarbonstockenteringthewoodproductsWCWP100poolatthetimeofdeforestation(tCO2e/ha)=UDefADbaselineweightedaveragecarbonstockenteringthewoodproductspoolatthetimeofdeforestationthatisexpectedtobeemittedover100years(tCO2e/ha)EstimationofanUncertaintyDiscountFactorThediscountfactorforemissionsfromcarbonstockchange,DFWΔC,iscalculatedbasedontheresultinguncertaintyofthebaselineUDefADweightedaveragecarbonstockchange,U%(WΔC).Wherethepercentageuncertaintyislessthanorequalto10percent,thediscountfactoriszero,calculatedusingEquation(10).Wherethepercentageuncertaintyisgreaterthan10percent,thediscountfactoriscalculatedusingEquation(11).InaccordancewithVCSrequirements,uncertaintymustremainbelow100percent.Whereuncertaintyisgreaterthan100percent,additionalsamplingmustbeundertaken.IfU%(WΔC)≤10%then:DFWΔC=0(10)IfU%(WΔC)>10%then:𝐷𝐹𝑊𝛥𝐶=𝑈%(𝑊∆𝐶)×𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑝ℎ𝑎=66.67%(11)100×𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑝ℎ𝑎=10%Where:DFWΔC=UncertaintydiscountfactorforstockchangesPercentageuncertaintyinemissionsfromcarbonstockchange(%)U%(WΔC)=Valueofthetdistributionforatwo-sided90percentconfidenceintervalValueofthetdistributionforaone-sided66.67percentconfidenceintervaltalpha=10%=talpha=66.67%=Step5:ConservativeEstimationofEmissionsfromCarbonStockChangeConservativeestimatesoftheemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeintheUDefPAarecalculatedbysummingoverthecarbonstockpoolsandapplyingthediscountfactor.Thisadjustmentmustbeundertakenseparatelyforeachcarbonpool:abovegroundbiomass,belowgroundbiomass,litteranddeadwood,soilorganiccarbonandcarbonstocksenteringthewoodproductspool.∆𝐶𝑐𝐴𝐵−𝐿𝐼,𝑖=((∆𝐶𝐴𝐵𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑒,𝑖−𝐶𝑊𝑃,𝑖)+∆𝐶𝐴𝐵𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑒,𝑖+∆𝐶𝐿𝐼,𝑖)×(1−𝐷𝐹𝑊∆𝐶)(12)24VMD0055,v1.0Where:=ConservativelyestimatedemissionsfromannualcarbonstockchangeintheΔCcAB-LI,iUDefPAinabovegroundbiomassandlitterpoolsinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)ΔCAB_tree,iΔCAB_nontree,i=EmissionsfromcarbonstockchangeintheabovegroundtreebiomasspoolinΔCLI,iforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)CWP,iDFWΔC=Emissionsfromcarbonstockchangeintheabovegroundnon-treewoodyibiomasspoolinstratumi(tCO2e/ha)=Emissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthelitterpoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)=Carbonstockenteringthewoodproductpoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)=Uncertaintydiscountfactorforstockchanges=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratum∆𝐶𝑐𝐵𝐵−𝐷𝑊,𝑖=(∆𝐶𝐵𝐵𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑒,𝑖+∆𝐶𝐵𝐵𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑒,𝑖+∆𝐶𝐷𝑊,𝑖)×(1−𝐷𝐹𝑊∆𝐶)(13)Where:=ConservativelyestimatedemissionsfromannualcarbonstockchangeintheΔCcBB-DW,iUDefPAinbelowgroundbiomassanddeadwoodpoolsinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)ΔCBB_tree,iΔCBB_nontree,i=EmissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthebelowgroundtreebiomasspoolinΔCDW,iforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)DFWΔCi=Emissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthebelowgroundnon-treebiomasspoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)=Emissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthedeadwoodpoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)=Uncertaintydiscountfactorforstockchanges=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratum25VMD0055,v1.0∆𝐶𝑐𝑆𝑂𝐶−𝑊𝑃,𝑖=(∆𝐶𝑆𝑂𝐶,𝑖+𝐶𝑊𝑃100,𝑖)×(1−𝐷𝐹𝑊∆𝐶)(14)Where:=Conservativelyestimatedemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeovera20-yearΔCcSOC-WP,iperiodintheUDefPAinsoilorganiccarbonandwoodproductpoolsinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)ΔCSOC,iCWP100,i=EmissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthesoilorganiccarbonpoolinforestDFWΔCstratumi(tCO2e/ha)i=Carbonstockenteringthewoodproductpoolatthetimeofdeforestationthatisexpectedtobeemittedover100yearsinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)=Uncertaintydiscountfactorforstockchanges=1,2,3,…,MforeststratumEmissionsfromcarbonstockchangeintheUDefLBarecalculatedsimilarly,butuncertaintyisnotquantified:∆𝐶𝐿𝐵,𝐴𝐵−𝐿𝐼,𝑖=(∆𝐶𝐴𝐵𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑒,𝑖−𝐶𝑊𝑃,𝑖)+∆𝐶𝐴𝐵𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑒,𝑖+∆𝐶𝐿𝐼,𝑖(15)Where:=EstimatedemissionsfromannualcarbonstockchangeintheUDefLBinΔCLB,AB-LI,iabovegroundbiomassandlitterpoolsinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)ΔCAB_tree,iΔCAB_nontree,i=EmissionsfromcarbonstockchangeintheabovegroundtreebiomasspoolinΔCLI,iforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)CWP,ii=Emissionsfromcarbonstockchangeintheabovegroundnon-treewoodybiomasspoolinstratumi(tCO2e/ha)=Emissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthelitterpoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)=Carbonstockenteringthewoodproductpoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratum26VMD0055,v1.0∆𝐶𝐿𝐵,𝐵𝐵−𝐷𝑊,𝑖=∆𝐶𝐵𝐵𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑒,𝑖+∆𝐶𝐵𝐵𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑒,𝑖+∆𝐶𝐷𝑊,𝑖(16)Where:=EstimatedemissionsfromannualcarbonstockchangeintheUDefLBinΔCLB,BB-DW,ibelowgroundbiomassanddeadwoodpoolsinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)ΔCBB_tree,iΔCBB_nontree,i=EmissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthebelowgroundtreebiomasspoolinΔCDW,iforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)i=Emissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthebelowgroundnon-treebiomasspoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)=Emissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthedeadwoodpoolinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratum∆𝐶𝐿𝐵,𝑆𝑂𝐶−𝑊𝑃,𝑖=∆𝐶𝑆𝑂𝐶,𝑖+𝐶𝑊𝑃100,𝑖(17)Where:=Estimatedemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeovera20-yearperiodintheΔCLB,SOC-WP,iUDefLBinthesoilorganiccarbonandwoodproductpoolsinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)ΔCSOC,iCWP100,i=Emissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinthesoilorganiccarbonpoolinforestistratumi(tCO2e/ha)=Carbonstockenteringthewoodproductspoolatthetimeofdeforestationthatisexpectedtobeemittedover100yearsinforeststratumi(tCO2e/ha)=1,2,3,…,MforeststratumStep6:EstimationofAnnualBaselineEmissionsfromCarbonStockChangesThesumofemissionsprojectedtotakeplaceintheUDefPAareestimatedusingtheareaofADandtheemissionsfromthecarbonstockchangesresultingfromunplanneddeforestation.Stockchangesintheabovegroundandlittercarbonpoolsareassumedtobeemittedatthetimeoflandusetransition.Followingthelandusetransition,emissionsfromthebelowground,deadwood,soilorganiccarbonandwoodproductpoolsareassumedtotakeplacegraduallyovertime;thosefromthebelowgroundbiomassanddeadwoodpoolsatanannualrateof1/10ofthestockchange,andthosefromsoilorganiccarbonandwoodproductsatanannualrateof1/20ofthestockchange.Foragivenyeart(theyearforwhichemissionsaretobeestimated),27VMD0055,v1.0emissionsfromunplanneddeforestationaresummedfromtheprojectstartdateuptot(forbelowgroundbiomass,deadwood,soilorganiccarbonandwoodproducts).ForcarbonpoolsintheUDefPA:∆𝐶𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡=(𝐴𝐷𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡×∆𝐶𝑐𝐵𝑆𝐿,AB−LI,𝑖)(18)1𝑡+10×∑(𝐴𝐷𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡×∆𝐶𝑐𝐵𝑆𝐿,BB−DW,𝑖,𝑡)𝑡−101𝑡+20×∑(𝐴𝐷𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡×∆𝐶𝑐𝐵𝑆𝐿,SOC−WP,𝑖,𝑡)𝑡−20Where:=CumulativeemissionsfromthebaselinecarbonstockchangeinallcarbonΔCBSL,PA-UDef,i,tpoolsinforeststratumiwithintheUDefPAinyeart(tCO2e)ADBSL,PA-UDef,i,tΔCcBSL,AB-LI,i=UDefADinthebaselinescenarioallocatedtoforeststratumiintheUDefPAforyeart(ha)ΔCcBSL,BB-DW,i,t=ConservativelyestimatedemissionsfromannualcarbonstockchangeintheΔCcBSL,SOC-WP,i,tUDefPAinabovegroundbiomassandlitterpoolsinforeststratumi,estimatedforyeart(tCO2e/ha)it=Conservativelyestimatedemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeovera10-yearperiodintheUDefPAinbelowgroundbiomassanddeadwoodpoolsinforeststratumi,estimatedforyeart(tCO2e/ha)=Conservativelyestimatedemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeovera20-yearperiodintheUDefPAinthesoilorganiccarbonandwoodproductpoolsinforeststratumi,estimatedforyeart(tCO2e/ha)=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratum=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheprojectForcarbonpoolsinUDefLBstrata:∆𝐶𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡=(𝐴𝐷𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡×∆𝐶𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝐿𝐵,𝐴𝐵−𝐿𝐼,𝑖)(19)1𝑡+10×∑(𝐴𝐷𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡×∆𝐶𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝐿𝐵,𝐵𝐵−𝐷𝑊,𝑖,𝑡)𝑡−101𝑡+20×∑(𝐴𝐷𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡×∆𝐶𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝐿𝐵,𝑆𝑂𝐶−𝑊𝑃,𝑖,𝑡)𝑡−2028VMD0055,v1.0Where:ΔCBSL,LB-UDef,i,t=CumulativeemissionsfrombaselinecarbonstockchangeinallcarbonpoolsinforeststratumiwithintheUDefLBinyeart(tCO2e)ADBSL,LB-UDef,i,t=UDefADinthebaselinescenarioallocatedtoforeststratumiintheUDefLBforyeart(ha)ΔCBSL,LB,AB-LI,i=EstimatedemissionsfromannualcarbonstockchangeintheUDefLBinabovegroundbiomassandlitterpoolsinforeststratumi,estimatedforyeart(tCO2e/ha)ΔCBSL,LB,BB-DW,i=Estimatedemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeovera10-yearperiodintheUDefLBinbelowgroundbiomassanddeadwoodpoolsinforeststratumi,estimatedforyeart(tCO2e/ha)ΔCBSL,LB,SOC-WP,i,t=Estimatedemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeovera20-yearperiodintheUDefLBinsoilorganiccarbonandwoodproductpoolsinforeststratumi,estimatedforyeart(tCO2e/ha)i=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratumt=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheproject5.3.2.4EstimationofOtherBaselineGHGEmissionsAnyotherGHGemissionsthatwouldtakeplaceinthebaselinescenariowithintheUDefPAmustbeestimated.SeemodulesE-FFC,E-BPBandE-NAforcalculationofEBSL,FC,i,t,EBSL,BiomassBurn,i,t,andN2OBSL,direct-N,i,t,respectively.TheotherGHGemissionswithintheUDefPAareestimatedas:𝐺𝐻𝐺𝐵𝑆𝐿𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝐸,𝑡𝑡∗𝑀(20)=∑∑(𝐸𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝐹𝐶,𝑖,𝑡+𝐸𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝐵𝑖𝑜𝑚𝑎𝑠𝑠𝐵𝑢𝑟𝑛,𝑖,𝑡+𝑁2𝑂𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑑𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡−𝑁,𝑖,𝑡)𝑡=1𝑖=1Where:GHGBSL_PA-UDef,E,t=CumulativeotherGHGemissionsinthebaselineinyeartresultingfromunplanneddeforestationwithintheUDefPAsincetheprojectstart(tCO2e)EBSL,FC,i,t=EmissionsfromfossilfuelcombustioninforeststratumiintheUDefPAinEBSL,BiomassBurn,i,t=yeart(tCO2e)N2OBSL,direct-N,i,t=Non-CO2emissionsduetobiomassburningaspartofavoidingunplanneddeforestationactivitiesinforeststratumiinyeart(tCO2e)DirectN2Oemissionasaresultofnitrogenapplicationonanalternativelanduseinforeststratumiinyeart(tCO2e)29VMD0055,v1.0i=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratumt=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheproject5.3.2.5EstimationofNetBaselineEmissionsNetemissionsunderbaselineconditionsforUDefPAarecalculatedas:𝑡∗𝑀(21)Δ𝐶𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑡=(∑∑∆𝐶𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡)+𝐺𝐻𝐺𝐵𝑆𝐿𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝐸,𝑡𝑡=1𝑖=1Where:ΔCBSL,PA-UDef,t=CumulativenetGHGemissionssincetheprojectstartwithintheUDefPAinthebaselineinyeart(tCO2e)GHGBSL_PA-UDef,E,t=CumulativeotherGHGemissionsinthebaselineinyeartresultingfromΔCBSL,PA-UDef,i,t=unplanneddeforestationwithintheUDefPAsincetheprojectstart(tCO2e)i=SumofthebaselineemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinallcarbonpoolsinforeststratumiwithintheUDefPAinyeart(tCO2e)t=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratum1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheprojectNetemissionsunderbaselineconditionsfortheUDefLBarecalculatedas:𝑡∗𝑀(22)∆𝐶𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑡=∑∑∆𝐶𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡𝑡=1𝑖=1Where:ΔCBSL,LB-UDef,t=CumulativenetGHGemissionsinthebaselineinyeartwithintheUDefLBsincetheprojectstart(tCO2e)ΔCBSL,LB-UDef,i,t=CumulativeemissionsfrombaselinecarbonstockchangeinallcarbonpoolsinforeststratumiwithintheUDefLBinyeart(tCO2e)i=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratumt=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheproject5.3.2.6AreaCapatBaselineReassessmentThroughthelifeoftheprojectthesumofallocateddeforestationinanygivenstratummustnotexceedthetotalareaofeachstratum.Thus:30VMD0055,v1.0𝑡∗mustbeAi∑𝐴𝐷𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡𝑡=1Inanycircumstancewhere:𝑡∗is>Ai,baselinedeforestationmustbeallocatedtoanalternativestratuminthesameriskclassr.Wheretherearenootherstratawithremainingarea∑𝐴𝐷𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡forpotentialdeforestationinthesameriskclass,deforestationmustbeallocatedtotheimmediatelysubsequentriskclass.𝑡=1Ifatanytime:𝑀𝑡∗>APA-UDef(withthesubtractionofanyidentifiedexclusions),thennofurtherissuanceofVCUsmayoccur.∑∑𝐴𝐷𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡𝑖=1𝑡=1Where:ADBSL,PA-UDef,i,t=UDefADinthebaselinescenarioallocatedtoforeststratumiintheUDefPAforyeart(ha)Ai=Areaofstratumi(ha)AreaofprojectwhereactivitiesaimedatavoidingunplanneddeforestationAPA-UDef=willtakeplace(ha)1,2,3,…,Mforeststratumi=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheprojectt=Wherebaselinerenewalrepresentsthefirstuseofthismoduleaftertheproject’sprioruseofVM0006,VM0007,VM0009,VM0015orVM0037,theparametersintheexpressionsaboveshouldbereplacedasdetailedinTable4.Table4:ParametersassociatedwiththeareacapandapplicableparametersinpriorREDDmethodologiesParameterinthismoduleParameterinpreviouslyvalidREDDmethodologyADBSL,PA-UDef,i,tVM0006:𝐷𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎,𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑆𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑜,𝐷𝐹(𝑡)VM0007(VMD0007):𝐴𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑃𝐴,𝑢𝑛𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑑,𝑡VM0009:𝐴[𝐵𝑚∆]𝑃𝐴𝐴VM0015:𝐴𝐵𝑆𝐿𝑃𝐴𝑖,𝑡VM0037:(𝐿𝑇(1−2)𝑦2−𝑦1,𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒)×𝑆𝑅𝐸𝐷𝐷,𝑖AiVM0006:𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎(𝑡,𝐶𝑆𝑖)VM0007(VMD0007):𝐴𝑢𝑛𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑑,𝑖,𝑡VM0009:𝐴𝑘31VMD0055,v1.0APA-UDefVM0015:𝐴𝐵𝑆𝐿𝑃𝐴𝑖VM0037:𝑆𝑅𝐸𝐷𝐷,𝑖VM0006:𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎VM0007:𝑃𝐴VM0009:𝐴𝑃𝐴𝐴VM0015:𝑃𝐴VM0037:∑𝑖=1𝑆𝑅𝐸𝐷𝐷,𝑖5.3.3ProjectEmissionsThekeystepsundertakenbytheprojectproponenttoestimateprojectemissionsaresummarizedinError!Referencesourcenotfound..Figure3:StepstoestimateprojectemissionsEstimateexanteemissionreductionsanticipatedbytheprojectDetermineADperstratumpermonitoringperiodMultiplyADbyemissionfactorsSumwithestimatedotherprojectemissions5.3.3.1ExAnteEstimationsofEmissionReductionsExanteestimatesmustusethebaselinedeforestationallocationprovidedbyVerraandemissionfactorsascalculatedinSection5.3.2.3.BeyondtheinitialprojectBVP,exanteestimationoftheannualallocationofemissionsreductionsmustnotincreaseandinsteadmustbeheldconstant(ordecrease).Avalueforexanteeffectiveness(EAEF,t)mustbedetailedforeachyearreflectingthepercentagebywhichtheprojectexpectstoreducedeforestationagainstthebaseline.EAEF,tshouldbeappliedtoestimateannualemissionreductionsthroughouttheprojectlifetime.Estimatedexanteeffectivenessmustbeconsistentwiththe32VMD0055,v1.0analysisofagentsanddriversofdeforestation(Sections5.2.1–5.2.2),aswellaswiththemeasuresimplementedtoreducedeforestation.Itmustnotincludeexanteleakagethatiscalculatedseparately(seeSection5.2.1).5.3.3.2UDefPAandUDefLBDeforestationDatafortheMonitoringPeriodMonitoringperiod12ADmustbeestimatedusingasample-basedapproachthatuseshumaninterpretationofhigh-resolutionimagery(10morfinerspatialresolution)withinsampleplots13distributedinarepresentativemanneracrosstheprojectactivitiesregion.Whereavailable,insituobservationsmaybeusedtosupplementvisualinterpretationofsampleplots.Otherspatialdatamaybeusedtoincreasethesamplingdesignefficiencyoraidinterpretationoftheimages.TheADmustbeconservativelyinflatedbasedontheestimatedstatisticaluncertainty,followingSteps3–4below.Astratifiedsamplingdesignmustbeemployedthataccountsforeachlocation’sbaselineriskofdeforestation,forestcarbonstocksandinclusionineithertheUDefPAorUDefLB.Step1:DevelopaLandCover/LandCoverChangeDatasetThesample-basedmethodyieldsanestimateoftheareaofunplanneddeforestationforthemonitoringperiod.Standardoperatingprocedures(SOPs)mustbedevelopedandusedbytheprojectproponentandmustinclude,ataminimum:sampledesign,responsedesignanddatasources,datacollectionanddataanalysis.TheSOPsshouldincludedetailedguidanceonqualitymanagementduringallofthesesteps.CollectedsampledataareusedtoidentifylandcoverconditionsatthestartandenddatesofthemonitoringperiodwithintheUDefPAandUDefLBandtoassignachange(deforestationorforestregrowth)ornochange(stableforestorstablenon-forest)resulttoeachobservation.SampleDesignProjectsamplingframeSamplingtakesplacewithintheprojectsamplingframe.TheprojectsamplingframeencompassesboththeUDefPAandUDefLB,minusanyareasmappedasidentifiedexclusionsinthemostrecentjurisdictionalmapofidentifiedexclusions.TheareaoftheprojectsamplingframeisdenotedAPSF.Whereadditionalareasof“identifiedexclusion–naturaldisturbance”or“identifiedexclusion–planneddeforestation”aredetectedashavingoccurredduringthemonitoringperiod,those12ProjectproponentsshouldalignmonitoringperiodswiththestartandenddatesoftheBVP.WhereamonitoringperiodmustextendovermultipleBVPs,allbaselineandmonitoringcalculationsmustbeundertakenandpresentedseparatelyfortheportionsofthemonitoringperiodthatfallintoeachBVP.13Forafullertreatmentofbestpracticesregardingplot-basedADdevelopment,seeSection4.2ofGFOI(2020).33VMD0055,v1.0areasmaybespatiallydelineatedandremovedfromtheprojectsamplingframe.Forprojectmonitoring,anidentifiedexclusionmustmeetaminimumcontiguoussizeof100ha(asopposedto1000haforthejurisdiction).DescriptionsofidentifiedexclusionsareprovidedinTable11ofAppendix1.Whereversuchareasaredelineated,theallocationofbaselineADmustbesettozero(seeSection5.3.2.2).AnyERRsgeneratedintheseareasandclaimedfrompreviousmonitoringperiodsmustbeaccountedforasareversal.EstimationofProjectEmissionsthroughForestDegradationintheUDefPATheUDefPAmustbemonitoredforevidenceofanthropogenicforestdegradation.Degradationmonitoringmustincludetwocomponents:1)FullevaluationoftheUDefPAforthepresenceofnewroads(definedhereascontinuousbaregroundatleast2mwide);and2)Examinationinstratifiedsamplesforsamplesiteswithadecreaseincanopycoverof50percentormorethatdonotqualifyasdeforestation.Wheresuchareasarerecorded,newdegradationimpactareasmustbedeterminedanddelineated:a)Fornewroads,degradationimpactareaswillbedeterminedanddelineatedinallinstancesequaltoanexpanseof500meithersideofthenewroad.b)Forrecordeddecreasesincanopycoverof50percentormorethatdonotqualifyasdeforestation,theareaimmediatelysurroundingthesamplingpointmustbeexaminedinimagerywitharesolutionof10morfiner.Wheretheareaoverwhichtheaveragecanopycoverhasdecreasedisequaltoorgreaterthan1ha,thisareamustbedelineatedasadegradationimpactarea.Adecreaseincanopycoveriscalculatedasthedifferencebetweencanopycoveratthestartandendofthemonitoredperiod.ThesedelineatedareasmustbewithdrawnfromREDDreportingforthemonitoredperiod,whichinvolvestemporarilytreatingforestcarbonstocksaszero.Theareasmustbetreatedasnewstrataandreincorporatedoncefieldmeasurementhasoccurredwithnew(decreased)emissionfactorsforrecordingprojectemissionsandfutureavoidedunplanneddeforestationemissions.Whentheseareasarereincorporatedinasubsequentmonitoringperiod,bothbaselineandmonitoredemissionsmustberecalculatedbeginningfromthefirstyearinwhichthenewforeststratumwasdefined,takingintoaccounttherevisedemissionfactorandtheUDefADoriginallyallocatedtothestratumintheassociatedBVP.34VMD0055,v1.0StratificationThesamplingdesignmustensurethatsampleplotsyieldarepresentativesampleoftheUDefPAandUDefLB.Astratifiedsampledesignisrequiredformonitoring.Thefollowingstratificationsoftheprojectsamplingframemustbeincluded:1)Abovegroundcarbonstockofforests(foreststrata);2)Carbonaccountingarea(UDefPAorUDefLB14);and3)Likelihoodofobservingdeforestation.Eachforeststratumusedbytheprojectforprojectemissionsaccountingmustalsobeusedasasamplingstratum.NotethatSection5.3.3.3referstocaseswherenewforeststratamaybedefinedwithintheUDefPAduetodegradationeventsthatoccurredafterthebeginningofthemonitoredperiod.Natural(butnotanthropogenic)large-scaledegradationmaybesimilarlydelineatedintheUDefLB.Suchforeststratamustbeincorporatedinthesamplingdesignformonitoringdeforestationarea,butthestrataareomittedfromemissionsaccountinguntilrevisedcarbonstocksareestimated.Sampleplotsmustbestratifiedbytheiranticipatedlikelihoodofobservingdeforestationtoensurethatareasofhigherdeforestationriskaresubjecttosufficientsamplingintensity.Projectsshoulduseaminimumofthreesamplingstratarepresentingexpecteddifferencesinthelikelihoodofobservingdeforestation.Thesesamplingstratamaybedefinedbyallocatedbaselinedeforestationrisk(asdefinedbythejurisdictionaldeforestationriskmap),byproject-generatedlandcoverchangemapsofthemonitoringperiodorbyotherfactorsthattheprojectproponentjustifiesasbeingassociatedwithdeforestationrisk.Thenumberofsampleobservationsineachsamplingstratumshouldbesufficientsuchthatthefinalestimateofdeforestationhasanuncertainty(definedasahalf-widthofthe90percentconfidenceinterval)thatiswithin±10percentoftheestimateofthemean;otherwisetheestimatewillbesubjecttoconservativeadjustment.Projectsshoulddemonstratethatthesamplingresultsinaminimumnumberofobservationscollectedfromeachsamplingstratum,andthatsampleplotsareallocated(eitherrandomlyorsystematically,demonstratingnobias)tostrataproportionallytothetotalareaofdeforestationanticipatedfromeachsamplingstratum(areaofstratummultipliedbyanticipatedpercentageofdeforestationoverthemonitoringperiod).14Whereoverlapsexistbetweentheleakagebeltsofdifferentprojectsand/orwhereleakagebeltexclusionshaveoccurredduetotheagreedpartitionoftheleakagebelt(Section5.1.3),thismustbeclearlyidentifiedinthestratificationofUDefLB.35VMD0055,v1.0DataSourcesSampledataaredevelopedthroughtheinterpretationofhigh-resolutionimagery.15Mapsmaybeemployedinthedesignofefficientsamplingstrategies.Otherdatasources,suchasairborneandspaceborneactiveandpassiveremotesensing,andgroundobservation,mayalsobeusedtosupplementtheinterpreters’observationofhigh-resolutionimagery.DataCollectionVisualinterpretationisusedtoassigneachsampleunittoachangeorno-changeclassification.Eachsampleplotobservationisrecordedwithreferencetothesamplingstratum(ss),foreststratum(i)andprojectaccountingarea(UDefPAorUDefLB)inwhichthesampleplotislocated.Notethatwhileprojectaccountingareasandforeststratamustbeusedassamplingstrata,eachretainsaseparatesubscriptinseveralparameterstofacilitateestimationofdifferentratesforaccountingareasandforeststrata(seeTable5).Table5:ExampleofstratumnamingconventionAccountingAreaForestStrata(i)RiskClassSamplingStrata(ss)PAForesttypeA1PA-A-1PAA2PA-A-2PAA3PA-A-3PAB1PA-B-1PAB2PA-B-2PAB3PA-B-3LBA1LB-A-1LBA2LB-A-2LBA3LB-A-3LBB1LB-B-1LB………DetailedproceduresforqualitymanagementduringtheinterpretationprocessmustbeformulatedanddescribedintheSOPforimageinterpretation.Typically,theseprocedureswillincludecross-validationamonginterpreters,atleastforasubsetofsampleunitsassessedbyallinterpreters,andrulesfordealingwithdisagreementsonclassidentificationbetweenanalysts.SuchSOPsmustinclude:1)Sampleplotdesignandspatialplotallocationtothesamplingframe;15Unlessotherwisestated,high-resolutionimageryinthismodulemeans10morfiner.36VMD0055,v1.02)Datasourcingandpre-processing;3)Visualinterpretationofforestandnon-forestlandcovers;4)Recordingdatesofimagerycollection;5)Minimumqualificationsofanalysts,includingfamiliaritywithjurisdiction-specificlandcoverinterpretation;and6)Cross-checksamonganalystsandrulesforresolvingdisagreements.DataAnalysisThesample-basedapproachproducescountsofobservationsofsampleunitswithineachsamplingstratum(ss).Notethatforeststrata(i)andprojectaccountingareas(UDefPAandUDefLB)areusedasmandatorysamplingstratificationandareaccountedforwithinthesssubscriptinEquations(23)and(26).SuchsampleunitcountsaredenotedasCountCHC,ssforchangecategories(CHC)deforestation,regrowth,stableforestandstablenon-forestobservedinthesssamplingstrata.Thetotalcountofsampleunitsinsamplingstratumss(Countss)mustbesummarizedfollowingtheformatofTable6.Table6:Formatforrecordingplotobservations,withreferencetoassociatedparameternamesChangeCategories(CHC)SamplingStratumUnplannedStableForestCHCCHCStratumTotal(ss)Deforestation(SF)……Countss=1(UDef)……Countss=2CountSF,ss=1……Countss=SSss=1CountUDef,ss=1CountSF,ss=2ss=2CountUDef,ss=2CountSF,ss=3ss=3CountUDef,ss=3Samplingstratumweightswsssmustbecalculatedforthe1,2,3,…,SSsamplingstratabydividingthemappedareaofeachstratum(Ass)bythetotalareaofthesamplingframe(Table7).Notethatareasofidentifiedexclusionsarenotconsideredpartoftheprojectsamplingframe,soAssshouldnotreflectanysamplingstrataportionsthatwouldotherwiseextendintotheidentifiedexcludedareas.37VMD0055,v1.0Table7:CalculationofsamplestratumweightsSamplingStratumSamplingStratumSamplingStratum(ss)Area(ha)Weight(ratio)ss=1Ass=1wsss=1=Ass=1/APSFwsss=2=Ass=2/APSFss=2Ass=2wsss=SS=Ass=SS/APSF1ss=SSAss=SSSamplingstratatotal(SS)APSFWhere:Ass=Areaofsamplingstratumssintheprojectsamplingframe(ha)APSF=Areaofprojectsamplingframe(ha)ss=1,2,3,…,SSsamplingstratumThecountsofsampleunitsofchangeclassesCHC(unplanneddeforestation(UDef),stableforest(SF),stablenon-forest(SNF)andregrowth(Reg))observedwithineachsamplingstratumss(CountCHC,ss)andthestrataweights(wsss)areusedtoestimatetheproportionoftheareaclassifiedaseachchangecategoryCHC(PropCHC,ss).Foreachsamplingstratum,thearea-weightedproportionofthetotalareaofeachchangecategoryCHCmustbecalculatedbymultiplyingtheweightofthestratum(wsss)bythenumberofobservationsofCHCpersamplingstratum,andbydividingbythetotalobservationcountfortherespectivestratum,asfollows:𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝐶𝐻𝐶,𝑠𝑠=𝑤𝑠𝑠𝑠×𝐶𝑜𝐶𝑢𝑜𝑛𝑢𝑡𝑛𝐶𝑡𝐻𝑠𝐶𝑠,𝑠𝑠(23)Where:PropCHC,ss=WeightedproportionofAPSFthatfallsintosamplingstratumssandisclassifiedaschangecategoryCHC(dimensionless)wsssCountCHC,ss=Weightofsamplingstratumss(dimensionless)=NumberofobservationsofchangecategoryCHCinsamplingstratumssCountssCHC(sampleunits)=Totalcountofsampleunitsinsamplingstratumss(sampleunits)ss=Changecategory:unplanneddeforestation(UDef),stableforest(SF),stablenon-forest(SNF),regrowth(Reg)=1,2,3,…,SSsamplingstrataTheresultingproportionsmustbesummarizedasillustratedinTable8.38VMD0055,v1.0Table8:Formatforrecordingestimatedjurisdictionproportions,withreferencetoassociatedparameternamesChangeCategory(CHC)SamplingDeforestationStableForest(SF)ChangeStratumTotalStratum(ss)(UDef)Categorywsss=1wsss=2Stratum1PropUDef,ss=1PropSF,ss=1…wsss=3Stratum2PropUDef,ss=21StratumSSPropUDef,ss=SSPropSF,ss=2…CHCtotalPropUDefPropSF,ss=SS…PropSF…Step2:CalculateTotalAreaofEachADCategoryEstimatetheareawithintheprojectsamplingframe(fortheprojectscenario)classifiedundereachchangecategoryCHC.SummationofPropCHC,ssoccursacrosssamplingstratass,exceptthosethatrepresenteitherforeststrata(i)orprojectaccountingareas(UDefPAorUDefLB).NotethatsubscriptsPA/LBandiareexcludedfrompreviousstepsinthissectionforclarity,butareaddedheretofacilitatedisaggregationbyprojectaccountingareaandforeststrata.ForUDefPA:𝑆𝑆(24)𝐴𝑃𝐴,𝐶𝐻𝐶,𝑖=𝐴𝑃𝑆𝐹×∑𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑃𝐴,𝐶𝐻𝐶,𝑖,𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠=1WhereAPA,CHC,i=AreaoftheUDefPAinstratumiclassifiedaschangecategoryCHCoverthemonitoringperiod(ha)PropPA,CHC,i,ss=WeightedproportionofAPA,ithatfallsintosamplingstratumssandisclassifiedaschangecategoryCHC(dimensionless)APSF=Areaofprojectsamplingframe(ha)Changecategory:unplanneddeforestation(UDef),stableforest(SF),stableCHC=non-forest(SNF),regrowth(Reg)1,2,3,…,Mforeststratumi=1,2,3,…,SSsamplingstratumss=ForUDefLB:𝑆𝑆(25)𝐴𝐿𝐵,𝐶𝐻𝐶,𝑖=𝐴𝑃𝑆𝐹×∑𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝐿𝐵,𝐶𝐻𝐶,𝑖,𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠=1Where39VMD0055,v1.0ALB,CHC,i=AreaoftheUDefLBclassifiedaschangecategoryCHCoverthemonitoringperiod(ha)PropLB,CHC,i,ss=WeightedproportionofALB,ithatfallsintosamplingstratumssandisclassifiedaschangecategoryCHC(dimensionless)APSF=Areaofprojectsamplingframe(ha)Changecategory:unplanneddeforestation(UDef),stableforest(SF),stableCHC=non-forest(SNF),regrowth(Reg)1,2,3,…,Mforeststratumi=1,2,3,…,SSsamplingstratass=Estimatedareasofdeforestationmustbeconservativelyinflatedbasedontheirassesseduncertainty(seeSteps3–4below).Step3:CalculatetheUncertaintyoftheEstimatedAreasofEachChangeCategoryCalculatethestandarderroroftheproportions:√𝑆𝑆𝑤𝑠𝑠𝑠2×𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝐶𝐻𝐶,𝑠𝑠×(1−𝐶𝑜𝐶𝑢𝑜𝑛𝑢𝑡𝑛𝐶𝑡𝐻𝐶,𝑠𝑠)(26)𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑆(𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝐶𝐻𝐶)=∑𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠=1𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡−1𝑠𝑠Where:S(PropCHC)=StandarderroroftheproportionoftheprojectsamplingframeinchangecategoryCHC(dimensionless)PropCHC=ProportionoftheprojectsamplingframeinchangecategoryCHC(dimensionless)wsss=Weightofsamplingstratumss(dimensionless)NumberofobservationsofchangecategoryCHCinsamplingstratumssCountCHC,ss=(sampleunits)Totalcountofsampleunitsinsamplingstratumss(sampleunits)Countss=Changecategory:unplanneddeforestation(UDef),stableforest(SF),stablenon-forest(SNF),regrowth(Reg)CHC=1,2,3,…,SSsamplingstratumss=Calculatethestandarderroroftheareas:𝑆(𝐴𝐶𝐻𝐶)=𝑆(𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝐶𝐻𝐶)×𝐴𝑃𝑆𝐹(27)Where:S(ACHC)=StandarderroroftheestimatedareaofchangecategoryCHCwithintheprojectsamplingframeoverthemonitoringperiod(ha)S(PropCHC)=StandarderroroftheproportionoftheprojectsamplingframeinchangecategoryCHC(dimensionless)APSF=Areaofprojectsamplingframe(ha)40VMD0055,v1.0CHC=Changecategory:unplanneddeforestation(UDef),stableforest(SF),stablenon-forest(SNF),regrowth(Reg)Calculatethepercentageuncertaintyoftheestimatedarea.Thepercentageuncertaintyisdefinedasthehalf-widthofthetwo-sided90percentconfidenceinterval,expressedasapercentageoftheestimatedarea.𝑈%(𝐴)=𝑡×𝑆(𝐴𝐶𝐻𝐶)×100(28)𝐶𝐻𝐶𝑎𝑙𝑝ℎ𝑎=10%∑𝑀𝑖=1𝐴𝑃𝐴,𝐶𝐻𝐶,𝑖+∑𝑀𝑖=1𝐴𝐿𝐵,𝐶𝐻𝐶,𝑖Where:PercentageuncertaintyoftheestimatedareaofchangecategoryCHCwithinU%(ACHC)=theprojectsamplingframeoverthemonitoringperiod(%)StandarderroroftheestimatedareaofchangecategoryCHCwithintheS(ACHC)=projectsamplingframeoverthemonitoringperiod(ha)AreaoftheUDefPAclassifiedaschangecategoryCHCoverthemonitoringAPA,CHC,i=period(ha)AreaoftheUDefLBclassifiedaschangecategoryCHCoverthemonitoringALB,CHC,i=period(ha)Valueofthetdistributionforatwo-sided90percentconfidenceinterval(atalpha=10%=valueof1.6449maybeusedforUDefADanalyses)Changecategory:unplanneddeforestation(UDef),stableforest(SF),stableCHC=non-forest(SNF),regrowth(Reg)1,2,3,…,Mforeststratumi=Step4:ConservativelyInflatetheEstimatedAreaofUnplannedDeforestationTheestimatedtotalareaofunplanneddeforestation(CHC=UDef)withintheprojectsamplingframeisinflatedbasedonitsuncertaintylevel.Wherethepercentageuncertaintyoftheestimatedunplanneddeforestationareaislessthanorequalto10percent,theestimatemaybeusedwithoutmodification,andtheinflationfactoriszero.Wherethepercentageuncertaintyisgreaterthan10percent,16theareaestimatemustbescaledupbyinflationfactorIFUDef.Theinflationfactor,IFUDefiscalculatedasfollows:𝑈%(𝐴𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓)(29)𝐼𝐹𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓=100×𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑝ℎ𝑎=10%×𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑝ℎ𝑎=66.67%Where:=Inflationfactorforareaofunplanneddeforestation(%)IFUDef16UncertaintymaynotexceedthemaximumacceptableuncertaintysetoutintheVCSMethodologyRequirements.41VMD0055,v1.0U%(AUDef)=Percentageuncertaintyoftheestimatedareaofunplanneddeforestation(wheretalpha=10%=CHC=UDef)withintheprojectsamplingframeoverthemonitoringperiod(%)talpha=66.67%=Valueofthetdistributionforatwo-sided90percentconfidenceinterval(avalueof1.6449maybeusedforADanalyses)Valueofthetdistributionforaone-sided66.67%confidenceinterval(avalueof0.4307maybeusedforADanalyses)Usingtheestimatedareaandtheinflationfactors,calculatethefinalADvaluesforUDefPA:𝐴𝑃𝐴,𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑,𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖=𝐴𝑃𝐴,𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖×(1+𝐼𝐹𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓)(30)Where:=AreaofunplanneddeforestationwithinforeststratumioftheUDefPAAPA,inflated,UDef,ioverthemonitoringperiod,conservativelyinflatedforuncertainty(ha)APA,UDef,i=Uninflatedareaofunplanneddeforestation(whereCHC=UDef)withinforeststratumiwithintheUDefPAoverthemonitoringperiod(ha)IFUDef=Inflationfactorforareaofunplanneddeforestation(%)i=1,2,3,…,MforeststratumUsingtheestimatedareaandtheinflationfactors,calculatethefinalADvaluesforUDefLB:𝐴𝐿𝐵,𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑,𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖=𝐴𝐿𝐵,𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖×(1+𝐼𝐹𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓)(31)Where:=AreaofunplanneddeforestationwithinforeststratumiintheUDefLBALB,inflated,UDef,ioverthemonitoringperiod,conservativelyinflatedforuncertainty(ha)ALB,UDef,i=Uninflatedareaofunplanneddeforestation(whereCHC=UDef)withinforeststratumiwithintheUDefLBoverthemonitoringperiod(ha)IFUDefi=Inflationfactorforareaofunplanneddeforestation(%)=1,2,3,…,MforeststratumStep5:DeterminetheADforUnplannedDeforestationTheannualizedemissionsperstratumintheUDefPAandUDefLBareequaltoADcalculatedforthemonitoringperioddividedbythenumberofyearsinthemonitoringperiod.ForUDefPA:𝐴𝐷𝑀𝑃,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡=𝐴𝑃𝐴,𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑,𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖𝑀𝑃𝐿(32)Where:ADMP,PA-UDef,i,t=UDefADintheUDefPAinforeststratumiinyeart(ha)APA,inflated,UDef,i=AreaofunplanneddeforestationwithinforeststratumioftheUDefPAMPLoverthemonitoringperiod,conservativelyinflatedforuncertainty(ha)t=Lengthofmonitoringperiod(years)=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheproject42VMD0055,v1.0i=1,2,3,…,MforeststratumForUDefLB:𝐴𝐷𝑀𝑃,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡=𝐴𝐿𝐵,𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑,𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖𝑀𝑃𝐿(33)Where:ADMP,LB-UDef,i,t=UDefADintheUDefLBinforeststratumiinyeart(ha)ALB,inflated,UDef,i=AreaofunplanneddeforestationwithinforeststratumioftheUDefLBMPLoverthemonitoringperiod,conservativelyinflatedforuncertainty(ha)i=Lengthofmonitoringperiod(years)t=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratum=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheproject5.3.3.3EstimationofCarbonStockChangesperStratumEmissionsresultingfromunplanneddeforestationintheprojectscenariomustbeestimatedusingthesameestimatesofcarbonstockdifferencesestablishedforthebaselinescenario(Section5.3.2.3),pairedwiththeconservativelyinflatedareasofunplanneddeforestationobtainedinEquations(30)(fortheUDefPA)and(31)(fortheUDefLB).However,intheeventofanaturaldisturbanceimpacting100contiguoushectaresormorethatdoesnotresultinatransitiontonon-forest,additionalforeststratamaybedefined.5.3.3.4EstimationofAnnualEmissionsfromCarbonStockChangesChangesincarbonstocksintheprojectscenariomustbeestimatedusingthesameestimatesofcarbonstockdifferencesthatwereestablishedforthebaseline(Section5.3.2.3),pairedwiththeconservativelyinflatedUDefADobtainedinEquations(32)(fortheUDefPA)and(33)(fortheUDefLB).Abovegroundbiomassandlittercarbonpoolsareassumedtobeemittedatthetimeofdeforestation.Followingdeforestation,emissionsfrombelowgroundbiomassanddeadwoodareassumedtooccurovertimeatanannualrateof1/10ofthestockchangeandemissionsfromsoilorganiccarbonandwoodproductsareassumedtooccurovertimeatanannualrateof1/20ofthestockchange.Thus,foragivenyeart,emissionsforbelowgroundbiomass,deadwood,soilorganiccarbonandwoodproductsaresummedacrossareasofeachlandusetransitionclassfromtimet=1(i.e.,startofBVP)totimet(theyearforwhichemissionsaretobeestimated).ForcarbonpoolsintheUDefPA:43VMD0055,v1.0∆𝐶𝑀𝑃,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡(34)=(𝐴𝐷𝑀𝑃,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡×∆𝐶𝑐𝑀𝑃,𝐴𝐵−𝐿𝐼,𝑖)1𝑡+10×∑(𝐴𝐷𝑀𝑃,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡×∆𝐶𝑐𝑀𝑃,𝐵𝐵−𝐷𝑊,𝑖,𝑡)𝑡−101𝑡+20×∑(𝐴𝐷𝑀𝑃,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡×∆𝐶𝑐𝑀𝑃,𝑆𝑂𝐶−𝑊𝑃,𝑖,𝑡)𝑡−20Where:=TotalemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinallpoolsinforeststratumiΔCMP,PA-UDef,i,tintheUDefPAinyeart(tCO2e)ADMP,PA-UDef,i,tΔCcMP,AB-LI,i=UDefADintheUDefPAinforeststratumiinyeart(ha)ΔCcMP,BB-DW,i,t=ConservativelyestimatedemissionsfromannualcarbonstockchangeintheUDefPAinabovegroundbiomassandlitterpoolsinforeststratumiΔCcMP,SOC-WP,i,tinyeart(tCO2e/ha)i=ConservativelyestimatedemissionsfromannualcarbonstockchangeinttheUDefPAinbelowgroundbiomassanddeadwoodpoolsinforeststratumiinyeart(tCO2e/ha)=Conservativelyestimatedemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeovera20-yearperiodintheUDefPAinthesoilorganiccarbonandwoodproductpoolsinforeststratumiinyeart(tCO2e/ha)=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratum=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheprojectForcarbonpoolsinUDefLB:∆𝐶𝑀𝑃,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡(35)=(𝐴𝐷𝑀𝑃,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡×∆𝐶𝑀𝑃,𝐿𝐵,𝐴𝐵−𝐿𝐼,𝑖)1𝑡+10×∑(𝐴𝐷𝑀𝑃,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡×∆𝐶𝑀𝑃,𝐿𝐵,𝐵𝐵−𝐷𝑊,𝑖,𝑡)𝑡−101𝑡+20×∑(𝐴𝐷𝑀𝑃,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡×∆𝐶𝑀𝑃,𝐿𝐵,𝑆𝑂𝐶−𝑊𝑃,𝑖,𝑡)𝑡−20Where:=TotalemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinallpoolsinforeststratumΔCMP,LB-UDef,i,tiintheUDefLBinyeart(tCO2e)ADMP,LB-UDef,i,t=UDefADintheUDefLBinforeststratumiinyeart(ha)44VMD0055,v1.0ΔCMP,LB,AB-LI,i=EstimatedemissionsfromannualcarbonstockchangeintheUDefLBinabovegroundbiomassandlitterpoolsinforeststratumiinyeart(tCO2e/ha)ΔCMP,LB,BB-DW,i=EstimatedemissionsfromannualcarbonstockchangeintheUDefLBinbelowgroundbiomassanddeadwoodpoolsinforeststratumiinyeart(tCO2e/ha)ΔCMP,LB,SOC-WP,i,t=EstimatedemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeintheUDefLBsoilorganiccarbonandwoodproductpoolsinforeststratumiinyeart(tCO2e/ha)i=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratumt=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheprojectFortotalemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeintheUDefPA:𝑀(36)∆𝐶𝑀𝑃,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑡=∑∆𝐶𝑀𝑃,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡𝑖=1Where:=TotalemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinallpoolsintheUDefPAinΔCMP,PA-UDef,tyeart(tCO2e)ΔCMP,PA-UDef,i,t=TotalemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinallpoolsinforeststratumiintheUDefPAinyeart(tCO2e)it=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratum=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheprojectFortotalemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeintheUDefLB:𝑀(37)∆𝐶𝑀𝑃,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑡=∑∆𝐶𝑀𝑃,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡𝑖=1Where:ΔCMP,LB-UDef,t=TotalemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinallpoolsintheUDefLBinΔCMP,LB-UDef,i,tyeart(tCO2e)it=TotalemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinallpoolsinforeststratumiintheUDefLBinyeart(tCO2e)=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratum=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheproject45VMD0055,v1.05.3.3.5EstimationofOtherGreenhouseGasEmissionsAnyotherGHGemissionsthatoccurduetoprojectactivitiesintheUDefPAmustbeestimatedusingthefollowingequation:𝑡∗𝑀(38)𝐺𝐻𝐺𝑀𝑃𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝐸,𝑡=∑∑(𝐸𝑀𝑃,𝐹𝐶,𝑖,𝑡+𝐸𝑀𝑃,𝐵𝑖𝑜𝑚𝑎𝑠𝑠𝐵𝑢𝑟𝑛,𝑖,𝑡+𝑁2𝑂𝑀𝑃,𝑑𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡−𝑁,𝑖,𝑡)𝑡=1𝑖=1Where:GHGMP_PA-UDef,E,t=CumulativeotherGHGemissionsasaresultofprojectactivitiesintheUDefPAinyeart(tCO2e)EMP,FC,i,t=Emissionsfromfossilfuelcombustioninforeststratumiinyeart(tCO2e)EMP,BiomassBurn,i,t=Non-CO2emissionsduetobiomassburningaspartofprojectactivitiesinN2OMP,direct-N,i,t=foreststratumiinyeart(tCO2e)i=N2Oemissionresultingfromnitrogenapplicationonanalternativelanduseinforeststratumiinyeart(tCO2e)t=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratum1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheproject5.3.3.6EstimatedNetProjectEmissionsThenetprojectemissionsforUDefPAarecalculatedas:𝑡∗𝑀(39)∆𝐶𝑀𝑃,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑡=∑∑(∆𝐶𝑀𝑃,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡)+𝐺𝐻𝐺𝑀𝑃𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝐸,𝑡𝑡=1𝑖=1Where:=CumulativenetGHGemissionsintheUDefPAinyeart(tCO2e)ΔCMP,PA-UDef,t=TotalemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinallpoolsinforeststratumiinΔCMP,PA-UDef,i,ttheUDefPAinyeart(tCO2e)GHGMP_PA-UDef,E,t=CumulativeotherGHGemissionsasaresultofprojectactivitiesintheiUDefPAinyeart(tCO2e)t=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratum=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheprojectThenetprojectemissionsforUDefLBarecalculatedas:46VMD0055,v1.0𝑡∗𝑀(40)∆𝐶𝑀𝑃,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑡=∑∑(∆𝐶𝑀𝑃,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡)𝑡=1𝑖=1Where:=CumulativeGHGemissionsintheUDefLBinyeart(tCO2e)ΔCMP,LB-UDef,t=TotalemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinallpoolsinforeststratumiinΔCMP,LB-UDef,i,ttheUDefLBinyeart(tCO2e)i=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratumt=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheproject5.3.4LeakageFourtypesofleakagemustbeassessed:1)Activityshiftingbygeographicallyconstrainedagents;2)Activityshiftingbygeographicallymobileagents;3)Market-effectsleakage;and4)Leakagemitigationemissions.Emissionsfromthesesourcesaresummedtoyieldanestimateofthetotalleakageemissionsfortheprojectactivitiesoverthemonitoringperiod.LeakageduetoactivityshiftingbygeographicallyconstrainedagentsismonitoredwithintheUDefLB.BaselineunplanneddeforestationallocatedwithintheUDefLBiscomparedtothedeforestationmonitoredexpost.Leakageduetoactivityshiftingbygeographicallymobileagentsisestimatedonthebasisof:a)Thenetreduction(displacement)ofdeforestationfromthebaselinetotheendofthemonitoringperiodwithinthecombinedareaoftheUDefPAandUDefLB;b)Theproportionofgeographicallymobileagentsofdeforestationprojectedinthebaseline;andc)Area-weightedemissionfactorsforareasaccessibletogeographicallymobiledeforestationagentsoutsideoftheUDefLB.Market-effectsleakageoccurswhereinthebaselinecasecommoditieswereproducedforregional,nationalorinternationalmarkets.Market-effectsleakageisestimatedusingmoduleLK-ME.Emissionsduetoleakagemitigationmeasurescorrespondtonon-CO2GHGemissionsfrombiomassburningorfertilizeruse,andmustbequantified.47VMD0055,v1.048VMD0055,v1.05.3.4.1RolesinDevelopmentofLeakageEstimatesTheprocedurestoestimateleakagerelyonacombinationofdataandstepstobetakenbyVerraandtheprojectproponent(Table9).ProcessesandcriteriatodevelopjurisdictionaldataaredescribedinAppendix1.Table9:RolesindevelopmentofleakageestimateStepResponsiblepartyFrequencyDefinitionofUDefLBboundariesVerra(UDefLBtobeOncepriortostartofadjustedbytheprojecteachjurisdictionalproponentwhereapplicableBVP–seeSection5.1.3)DefinitionofjurisdictionalemissionfactorforVerraOncepriortostartofareasoutsidetheUDefLBsubjecttoeachjurisdictionaldeforestationfromactivityshiftingbyBVPgeographicallymobileagentsAssessingemissionsfromactivityshiftingdueProjectproponentOncepermonitoringtodisplacementofunplanneddeforestationtoeventtheUDefLBAssessingemissionsfromactivityshiftingdueProjectproponentOncepermonitoringtodisplacementofunplanneddeforestationtoeventareasoutsidetheUDefLBOncepermonitoringAssessingemissionsfromleakagemitigationProjectproponenteventmeasuresOncepermonitoringEstimationoftotalleakageduetotheProjectproponenteventdisplacementofunplanneddeforestationFigure4summarizesthekeyleakageestimationstepstobeundertakenbytheprojectproponent.49VMD0055,v1.0Figure4:LeakageestimationstepsEstimateleakagebygeographicallyconstrainedagentsEstimateleakagebygeographicallymobileagentsEstimatemarket-effectsleakageSumwithemissionsfromleakagemitigationmeasures5.3.4.2ExAnteEstimationofLeakageExante,activitydisplacementleakagemayonlybeestimatedbasedontheanticipatedcombinedeffectivenessoftheproposedleakagemitigationmeasuresandprojectactivities.ThismustbedonebymultiplyingtheestimatedbaselinecarbonstockchangesfortheUDefPAbya“displacementleakagefactor”(DLF)representingthepercentageofdeforestationexpectedtobedisplacedoutsidetheprojectboundary.WheredeforestationagentsidentifiedinSection5.2.1donotparticipateinand/orbenefitfromleakagemitigationmeasures,thedisplacementfactoris100percent.Whereleakagemitigationmeasuresareimplemented,thefactorisequaltotheproportionofthebaselineagentsestimatedtonotbegiventheopportunitytoparticipateinleakagemitigationmeasuresandprojectactivities.Whereemissionsfromforestfireshavebeenincludedinthebaseline,theexanteemissionsfromforestfiresduetoactivitydisplacementleakagewillbecalculatedbymultiplyingbaselineforestfireemissionsintheUDefPAbythesameDLFusedtoestimatethedecreaseincarbonstocks.Exanteestimatesofleakageemissionsdonotcontributetoestimatesofexpostmonitoredprojectleakageemissions.MonitoredleakageemissionsaredescribedinSections5.3.4.3–5.3.4.8.50VMD0055,v1.05.3.4.3EmissionsFromDisplacementofGeographicallyConstrainedActivitiesintheUDefLBNetCarbonStockDifferenceintheUDefLBDuringtheMonitoringPeriodVersustheBaselineScenarioThedifferenceincarbonstocksbetweenthebaselinescenarioandthemonitoringperiodwithintheUDefLBsincetheprojectstartdatetoyeartiscalculatedasΔCLK-net-LB,t.NotethatΔCLK-net-LB,tmaybelessthanzeroatthisstep,whereforestcarbonstocksinthemonitoringperiodaregreaterthanprojectedunderthebaseline.Negativevaluesareaccountedforinalaterstepsuchthatpositiveleakageisneverattributedtotheproject.∆𝐶𝐿𝐾−𝑛𝑒𝑡−𝐿𝐵,𝑡=∆𝐶𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑡−∆𝐶𝑀𝑃,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑡(41)Where:ΔCLK-net-LB,t=DifferenceincumulativenetGHGemissionsbetweenthebaselineandmonitoringperiodwithintheUDefLBduetounplanneddeforestationinyeartΔCBSL,LB-UDef,t=(tCO2e)ΔCMP,LB-UDef,t=CumulativenetGHGemissionsinthebaselineinyeartwithintheUDefLBsincetheprojectstart(tCO2e)t=CumulativenetmonitoredGHGemissionsinyeartwithintheUDefLBsincetheprojectstart(tCO2e)1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheprojectOtherDeforestationEmissionsWithintheUDefLBDuringtheMonitoringPeriodWheresignificant(asdeterminedfollowingAppendix1ofVM0048),fossil-fuelrelatedandnon-CO2GHGemissionsoccurringintheUDefLBmustbeevaluated.Forexample,wheredeforestationoccursintheUDefLBandfireisusedasameansofforestclearance,thenon-CO2emissionsmaybesignificant.Fossil-fuelrelatedandnon-CO2GHGemissionsperunitarearesultingfromlandcovertransitionintheUDefLBareassumedtoequalthoseestimatedforthebaselineperiodintheUDefPA.TheseemissionsarecalculatedbysummingthetotalemissionsoverthebaselineperiodforeachforeststratumacrosstheUDefPAandthendividingthisbythesumofADperforeststratumoverthebaselineperiodusingEquation(42).TheseaverageemissionsperunitareaarethenappliedtothedifferenceinADbetweenthebaselineandmonitoringperiodwithintheUDefLBinEquation(42)(43).𝐺𝐻𝐺𝐿𝐵,𝐸,𝑖,𝑡=∑𝑡𝑡∗=1(𝐸𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝐹𝐶,𝑖,𝑡+𝐸𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝐵𝑖𝑜𝑚𝑎𝑠𝑠𝐵𝑢𝑟𝑛,𝑖,𝑡+𝑁2𝑂𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑑𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡−𝑁,𝑖,𝑡)(42)∑𝑡𝑡∗𝐴𝐷𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡=151VMD0055,v1.0Where:GHGLB,E,i,t=AnnualperhectareotherGHGemissionsintheUDefLBasaresultofdeforestationactivitiesinforeststratumiinyeart(tCO2e/ha)ADBSL,PA-UDef,i,t=UDefADinthebaselinescenarioallocatedtoforeststratumiintheUDefPAEBSL,FC,i,t=foryeart(ha)EBSL,BiomassBurn,i,t=Emissionsfromfossilfuelcombustioninforeststratumiinyeart(tCO2e)N2OBSL,direct-N,i,t=Non-CO2emissionsduetobiomassburningaspartofprojectactivitiesinforeststratumiinyeart(tCO2e)i=DirectN2Oemissionasaresultofnitrogenapplicationonanalternativelandt=useinforeststratumiinyeart(tCO2e)1,2,3,…,Mforeststratum1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheproject𝑡∗𝑀(43)𝐺𝐻𝐺𝑀𝑃,𝐿𝐾−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝐸,𝑡=∑∑((𝐴𝐷𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡−𝐴𝐷𝑀𝑃,𝐿𝐵−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡)×𝐺𝐻𝐺𝐿𝐵,𝐸,𝑖,𝑡)𝑡=1𝑖=1Where:CumulativeotherGHGemissionsinyeartasaresultofunplannedGHGMP,LK-UDef,E,t=deforestationwithintheUDefLBduringthemonitoringperiod(tCO2e)ADBSL,LB-UDef,i,t=UDefADinthebaselinescenarioallocatedtoforeststratumiintheUDefLBforyeart(ha)ADMP,LB-UDef,i,t=UDefADintheUDefLBinforeststratumiinyeart(ha)GHGLB,E,i,t=AnnualperhectareotherGHGemissionsintheUDefLBasaresultofdeforestationactivitiesinforeststratumiinyeart(tCO2e/ha)i=1,2,3,…,Mforeststratumt=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheprojectNetGHGEmissionsWithintheUDefLBDuringtheMonitoringPeriodThenetGHGemissionsaresummedfortheUDefLBas:𝛥𝐶𝐿𝐾,𝐿𝐵,𝑡=𝛥𝐶𝐿𝐾−𝑛𝑒𝑡−𝐿𝐵,𝑡+𝐺𝐻𝐺𝑀𝑃,𝐿𝐾−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝐸,𝑡(44)Where:=CumulativenetGHGleakageemissionswithintheUDefLBduringtheΔCLK,LB,tmonitoringperiodinyeart(tCO2e)52VMD0055,v1.0ΔCLK-net-LB,t=DifferenceincumulativenetGHGemissionsbetweenthebaselineandmonitoringperiodwithintheUDefLBduetounplanneddeforestationinyearGHGMP,LK-UDef,E,t=t(tCO2e)t=CumulativeotherGHGemissionsinyeartasaresultofunplanneddeforestationwithintheUDefLBduringthemonitoringperiod(tCO2e)1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheproject5.3.4.4EmissionsfromActivityShiftingDuetoDisplacementofUnplannedDeforestationtoAreasOutsidetheUDefLBEstimationoftheProportionofMigratedLandCoverTransitionAgentsintheBaseline(PROPMIG)Randomlysamplehouseholdslocatedwithintheprojectactivitiesregiontodeterminetheproportionthatmeetsthefollowingcriteria:1)Migratedintotheareawithinthelastfiveyears;and2)Engagesinlanduseactivitiesidentifiedasabaselinedriverofdeforestation.TheproportionofsampledhouseholdsmeetingthesecriteriaistermedPROPMIG.Theminimumsamplesizemustbeatleast200households.Wherethetotalnumberofhouseholdsisestimatedtobelessthan250,theminimumsamplesizemaybereducedto80percentoftheestimatednumberofhouseholds.Forsamplingrequirements,refertothelatestversionofGuideline:SamplingandsurveysforCDMprojectactivitiesandprogrammesofactivities.17ThisassessmentmustberepeatedwithintwoyearspriortothestartofeachnewBVPandtheestimatedproportionsareassumedtoremainconstantfortheBVP.PROPMIGmayalwaysbeassignedaconservativevalueof1.0.Projectsshoulddescribehowthedefinitionofhouseholdappliedinsurveydesignisjustifiedgivenlocalcontext,anddemonstratehowitisconsistentlyappliedinsurveyadministration.TotalAreaofActivityShiftingtoOutsidetheUDefLBItisconservativelyassumedthatgeographicallymobileagentsofunplanneddeforestationrecentlysettledintheUDefPAareprimarilydrivenbyaneedtosecureagriculturalland.TheamountofleakagetoareasoutsidetheUDefLBistakenasthetotalareaofavoidedlandcovertransitionintheUDefPA,scaledbytheproportionofrecentmigration(PROPMIG).17Availableat:https://cdm.unfccc.int/sunsetcms/storage/contents/stored-file-20151023152925068/Meth_GC48_%28ver04.0%29.pdf53VMD0055,v1.0𝑡∗𝑀𝐴𝐷𝐴𝑆−𝑂𝐿𝐵,𝑡=𝑃𝑅𝑂𝑃𝑀𝐼𝐺,𝑡×∑∑(𝐴𝐷𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡−𝐴𝐷𝑀𝑃,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑖,𝑡)(45)𝑡=1𝑖=1Where:ADAS-OLB,t=CumulativeareaoutsidetheUDefLBexperiencinglandcoverconversionduetoactivityshiftinginyeart(ha)PROPMIG,t=ProportionofhouseholdslivingintheprojectactivitiesregionthatareADBSL,PA-UDef,i,t=recentmigrantsandareengaginginlanduseactivitiesidentifiedasabaselinedriverofunplanneddeforestation,ascalculatedforyeartADMP,PA-UDef,i,t=(proportion)i=UDefADinthebaselinescenarioallocatedtoforeststratumiintheUDefPAforyeart(ha)t=UDefADintheUDefPAinforeststratumiinyeart(ha)1,2,3,…,Mforeststratum1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheprojectWhere,atanypointintime,𝐴𝐷𝐴𝑆−𝑂𝐿𝐵,𝑡≥𝐴𝐴𝑣𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒,18thenADAS-OLB,twillbeequaltozerofortheremainderoftheBVP.EmissionsfromActivityShiftingtoAreasOutsidetheUDefLBTheareaofdeforestationthatisdisplacedfromtheUDefPA(ADAS-OLB,t)isassumedtoresultinlandcoverconversionofanequalextentoutsidetheUDefLB.∆𝐶𝐿𝐾,𝑂𝐿𝐵,𝑡=𝐴𝐷𝐴𝑆−𝑂𝐿𝐵,𝑡×∆𝐶𝑂𝐿𝐵,𝑡(46)Where:ΔCLK,OLB,t=CumulativetotalemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeduetoactivityshiftingtoareasavailableoutsidetheUDefLBinyeart(tCO2e)ADAS-OLB,t=CumulativeareaoutsidetheUDefLBexperiencinglandcovertransitionduetoactivityshiftinginyeart(ha)ΔCOLB,t=EmissionsfromcarbonstockchangeduetolandcovertransitioninareasavailableforactivityshiftingoutsidetheUDefLB,ascalculatedforyeart(tCO2e/ha)t=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheproject18AAvailableistheareapotentiallyavailableforactivityshiftingoutsidetheUDefLBandisdeterminedbyVerra(seeAppendix2).54VMD0055,v1.05.3.4.5EstimationofTotalLeakagefromDisplacementofUnplannedDeforestationTotalactivity-shiftingleakageemissionsarethesumofleakagefromwithinandoutsidetheUDefLB.Wheretotalleakageiscalculatedtobelessthanzero,ΔCLK-AS,tisassignedavalueofzero.𝛥𝐶𝐿𝐾−𝐴𝑆,𝑡=∆𝐶𝐿𝐾,𝐿𝐵,𝑡+𝛥𝐶𝐿𝐾,𝑂𝐿𝐵,𝑡(47)Where:ΔCLK-AS,t=CumulativenetGHGleakageemissionsduetothedisplacementofunplanneddeforestationactivitiesinyeart(tCO2e)ΔCLK,LB,t=CumulativenetGHGleakageemissionswithintheUDefLBduringthemonitoringΔCLK,OLB,t=periodinyeart(tCO2e)t=CumulativetotalemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeduetoactivityshiftingtoareasavailableoutsidetheUDefLBinyeart(tCO2e)1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheproject5.3.4.6EmissionsfromMarket-EffectsLeakageWheredeforestationinthebaselineinvolveswoodharvestingforcommercialmarkets(timber,fuelwoodorcharcoal),emissionsfrommarket-effectsleakagemustbeestimatedusingmoduleLK-ME,resultinginparameterΔCLK-ME,t.5.3.4.7EmissionsfromLeakageMitigationMeasuresLeakagemitigationmeasuresmustbeimplemented.Wheresuchactivitiesresultinsignificantincreasesinemissionsfromcarbonstockchanges,biomassburningand/orincreasedfertilizerusage,suchemissionsmustbecountedandconservativelyincludedintheirentiretyasemissionscausedbyprojectimplementation.Theprojectdescriptionmustlisttheplannedleakagemitigationmeasures,locatethem(i.e.,defineleakagemanagementzones)andidentifyareaswhereleakagemitigationmeasureswillimpactcarbonstocks.Fortheseareas,calculatethenetcarbonstockchangesinabove-andbelowgroundtreebiomassthattheplannedleakagemitigationmeasuresareexpectedtocauseduringthefixedbaselineperiodusingconservativegrowthprojections.Wherethenetsumofcarbonstockchangeswithintheleakagemanagementzonesoverthemonitoringperiodisgreaterthanzero,thenetincreaseisconservativelyignoredinthecalculationofnetGHGemissionreductionsoftheprojectactivity.Wherethenetsumofcarbonstockchangeswithintheleakagemanagementzonesoverthemonitoringperiodisnegative,significancemustbetestedfollowingAppendix1ofVM0048.Foremissionsassociatedwithbiomassburningandfertilizerusage,significancemustbetestedfollowingAppendix1ofVM0048.55VMD0055,v1.0Wheretheemissionsaresignificant,theymustbeaccountedintheexanteestimationofleakage,andemissionsinthelandunitswhereleakagemitigationmeasuresareimplementedwillbesubjecttomonitoring,reportingandverification(MRV).Wheretheemissionisnotsignificant,itmaybeexcludedandcarbonstockchangesintheleakagemanagementzonewillnotbesubjecttorequiredMRV.𝑡∗𝐺𝐻𝐺𝐿𝐾,𝐸,𝑡=∑(𝐸𝐶𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘𝑠,𝐿𝑀𝑍,𝑡+𝐸𝑀𝑃,𝐵𝑖𝑜𝑚𝑎𝑠𝑠𝐵𝑢𝑟𝑛,𝑡+𝑁2𝑂𝑀𝑃,𝑑𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡−𝑁,𝑡)(48)𝑡=1Where:GHGLK,E,t=CumulativeotherGHGemissionsasaresultofleakagemitigationmeasuresinyeart(tCO2e)ECstocks,LMZ,t=NetCO2eemissionsfromcarbonstockchangesinliveabove-andEMP,BiomassBurn,t=belowgroundtreebiomassintheleakagemanagementzoneresultingfromimplementationofleakagemitigationmeasuresinyeart(tCO2e)N2OMP,direct-N,t=Non-CO2monitoredemissionsduetobiomassburningaspartofprojectt=activitiesinyeart(tCO2e)DirectN2Omonitoredemissionsasaresultofnitrogenapplicationonanalternativelanduseinyeart(tCO2e)1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheproject5.3.4.8EstimationofSummedLeakageEmissionsTotalleakageemissionsareequaltothesummedemissionsfromactivityshifting,market-effectsandGHGemissionsassociatedwithleakagemitigationmeasures.𝛥𝐶𝐿𝐾−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑡=𝛥𝐶𝐿𝐾−𝐴𝑆,𝑡+𝛥𝐶𝐿𝐾−𝑀𝐸,𝑡+𝐺𝐻𝐺𝐿𝐾,𝐸,𝑡(49)Where:CumulativenetGHGemissionsduetoleakagefromtheprojectactivityinyeartΔCLK-UDef,t=(tCO2e)ΔCLK-AS,t=CumulativenetGHGleakageemissionsduetothedisplacementofunplanneddeforestationinyeart(tCO2e)ΔCLK-ME,t=CumulativenetGHGemissionsduetomarket-effectsleakageinyeart,fromGHGLK,E,t=moduleLK-ME(tCO2e)t=CumulativeotherGHGemissionsasaresultofleakagemitigationmeasuresinyeart(tCO2e)1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheproject56VMD0055,v1.05.3.5NetGHGEmissionReductionsTheprojectproponentmustpresentconservativeexanteestimationsofthetotalnetGHGemissionsreductionsoftheprojectactivity.Forexanteestimationsofspecificparameters,refertotheparametertablesintheappropriatemodules.ThetotalnetGHGemissionsreductionsoftheavoidingunplanneddeforestationprojectactivityarecalculatedasfollows:𝑁𝐸𝑅𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑡=𝛥𝐶𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑡−𝛥𝐶𝑀𝑃,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑡−𝛥𝐶𝐿𝐾−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑡(50)Where:NERUDef,t=CumulativetotalnetGHGemissionreductionsoftheprojectactivityinyeart(tCO2e)ΔCBSL,PA-UDef,t=CumulativenetGHGemissionsinthebaselinewithintheUDefPAinyeartΔCMP,PA-UDef,t=(tCO2e)ΔCLK-UDef,t=TotalemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinallpoolsintheUDefPAinyeart(tCO2e)t=CumulativenetGHGemissionsduetoleakagefromtheUDefPAinyeart(tCO2e)1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheproject5.3.5.1CalculationofAFOLUPooledBufferAccountContributionThenumberofcreditstobeheldintheAFOLUpooledbufferaccountisdeterminedasapercentageofthetotalcarbonstockbenefits.Foravoidingunplanneddeforestationprojectactivities,thisiscalculatedusingEquation(51).Leakageemissionsdonotfactorintothebuffercalculations.𝐵𝑢𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙,𝑡=(∆𝐶𝐵𝑆𝐿,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑡−∆𝐶𝑀𝑃,𝑃𝐴−𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑡)×𝐵𝑢𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟%(51)Where:BufferTotal,t=Cumulativetotalpermanenceriskbufferwithholdinginyeart(tCO2e)ΔCBSL,PA-UDef,t=ΔCMP,PA-UDef,t=CumulativenetGHGemissionsinthebaselinewithintheUDefPAinyeartBuffer%=(tCO2e)TotalemissionsfromcarbonstockchangeinallpoolsintheUDefPAinyeart(tCO2e)Bufferwithholdingpercentage,fromVCSAFOLUNon-PermanenceRiskTool(%)57VMD0055,v1.0t=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheproject5.3.5.2CalculationofVerifiedCarbonUnitsTocalculatethenumberofpotentialVerifiedCarbonUnits(VCUs)foryearsinwhichmonitoringhasbeenconductedandsubmittedforverification,thismoduleusesthefollowingequation:𝑉𝐶𝑈𝐴𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑡=(𝑁𝐸𝑅𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑡−𝑁𝐸𝑅𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑡−1)−(𝐵𝑢𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙,𝑡−𝐵𝑢𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙,𝑡−1)(52)Where:VCUAUDef,t=NumberofpotentialVerifiedCarbonUnitsgeneratedinyeart(VCU)NERUDef,t=CumulativetotalnetGHGemissionreductionsoftheprojectactivityinyeart(tCO2e)NERUDef,t-1=CumulativetotalnetGHGemissionreductionsoftheprojectactivityinyeart−1(tCO2e)BufferTotal,t=Cumulativetotalpermanenceriskbufferwithholdinginyeart(tCO2e)Cumulativetotalpermanenceriskbufferwithholdinginyeart−1(tCO2e)BufferTotal,t-1=1,2,3,…,tyearselapsedsincethestartoftheprojectt=Wherethisequationresultsinadecimalnumber,thenumbermustberoundeddown.58VMD0055,v1.06DATAANDPARAMETERS6.1DataandParametersAvailableatValidationData/ParameterAPA-UDefDataunithaDescriptionAreaofprojectwhereactivitiesaimedatavoidingunplanneddeforestationwilltakeplaceEquationsSection5.3.2.6SourceofdataCalculatedwithinaGISValueappliedTobedeterminedbyprojectproponentJustificationofchoiceofAccuracyofmappedcoordinatesmustbedemonstrated.dataordescriptionofmeasurementmethodsandproceduresappliedPurposeofdataCalculationofprojectemissionsCommentsNoneData/ParameterAJDataunithaDescriptionAreaofthejurisdictionEquationsSectionA1.4.1,(54),(56)SourceofdataDigitalmapofjurisdictionalboundariesValueappliedTobedeterminedbyVerraJustificationofchoiceofPriortothestartofeachBVPdataordescriptionofmeasurementmethodsandproceduresappliedPurposeofdataCalculationofbaselineemissions59CommentsVMD0055,v1.0AJshouldbecalculatedusingthesameprojectedcoordinatesystemasthatusedforthedigitalmapofjurisdictionalboundaries.Data/ParameterDLFDataunit%DescriptionDisplacementleakagefactorEquationsSection5.3.4.2SourceofdataEstimatedandjustifiedbyprojectproponentValueappliedTobedeterminedbyprojectproponentJustificationofchoiceofProjectproponenttodeterminebasedontheextentofimplementationofdataordescriptionofdeforestationmitigationactivitiesandtheexpectedimpactofactivitiesonmeasurementmethodsandleakageproceduresappliedPurposeofdataCalculationofleakageCommentsMustbetiedtoEAEF,tData/ParameterEAEF,tDataunit%DescriptionExanteeffectivenessofhaltingbaselineemissionsinyeartEquationsSection5.3.3.1SourceofdataEstimatedandjustifiedbyprojectproponentValueappliedTobedeterminedbyprojectproponentJustificationofchoiceofProjectproponenttodeterminebasedontheextentofimplementationofdataordescriptionofdeforestationmitigationactivitiesandtheexpectedimpactofactivitiesonmeasurementmethodsandbaselinedeforestationproceduresappliedPurposeofdataCalculationofprojectemissions60VMD0055,v1.0CommentsNoneData/Parametertalpha=10%DataunitunitlessDescriptionValueoftheStudent’stdistributionforatwo-sided90percentconfidenceintervalEquationsSection5.3.2.3,(11),(28),(29),𝑈%(𝐴𝐽𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓)=𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑝ℎ𝑎=10%×(57),(58)SourceofdataCommonstatisticaltablesorsoftwareValueappliedDeterminedbyprojectproponent.Avalueof1.6449maybeusedforanalysesinvolving50ormoresamples(e.g.,ADestimates).Thetvaluecorrespondingtothenumberofdegreesoffreedommustbeusedforcasesinvolvinglessthan50samples(e.g.,carbonstockestimates).JustificationofchoiceofBasedonthecentrallimittheorem,sampleestimatesareassumedtodataordescriptionofapproachanormaldistribution,fromwhichaconfidenceintervalmaybemeasurementmethodsandconstructed.TheStudent’stdistributionisusedtoallowforsmallsampleproceduresappliedsizes.PurposeofdataCalculationofbaselineemissionsandprojectemissionsCommentsNoneData/Parametertalpha=66.67%DataunitDescriptionunitlessEquationsValueoftheStudent’stdistributionforaone-sided66.67percentSourceofdataconfidenceintervalValueapplied(11),(29),(58)JustificationofchoiceofdataordescriptionofCommonstatisticaltablesorsoftwareDeterminedbyprojectproponent.Avalueof0.4307maybeusedforanalyseswith50ormoresamples(e.g.,ADestimates).Thetvaluecorrespondingtothenumberofdegreesoffreedommustbeusedforcasesinvolvingfewerthan50samples(e.g.,carbonstockestimates).Basedonthecentrallimittheorem,sampleestimatesareassumedtoapproachanormaldistribution,fromwhichaconfidenceintervalmaybe61VMD0055,v1.0measurementmethodsandconstructed.TheStudent’stdistributionisusedtoallowforsmallsampleproceduresappliedsizes.PurposeofdataCalculationofbaselineemissionsandprojectemissionsCommentsNone6.2DataandParametersMonitoredData/ParameterAAvailableDataunithaDescriptionAreaofjurisdictionmappedasavailableforactivityshiftingoutsidetheUDefLBEquationsAppendix2SectionA2.1SourceofdataVerra(Appendix2)DescriptionofDigitalmapoflandavailableforactivityshiftingmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeappliedFrequencyofEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybemonitoring/recordingshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.QA/QCprocedurestobeN/AappliedPurposeofdataCalculationofleakageemissionsCalculationmethodInGISCommentsNoneData/ParameterAiDataunithaDescriptionAreaofstratumiEquationsSection5.3.2.662VMD0055,v1.0SourceofdataProjectproponent(determinedduringspatialanalysis)DescriptionofN/AmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeappliedFrequencyofMonitoringmustbeconductedatleasteveryfiveyears,orpriortoeachmonitoring/recordingverificationeventwhereverificationoccursmorefrequently.QA/QCprocedurestobeN/AappliedPurposeofdataCalculationofprojectemissionsCalculationmethodInGISCommentsNoneData/ParameterAPSFDataunithaDescriptionAreaofprojectsamplingframeEquationsSection5.3.3.2,Table7,(24),(25),(27)SourceofdataProjectproponent(determinedduringspatialanalysis)DescriptionofN/AmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeappliedFrequencyofMonitoringmustbeconductedatleasteveryfiveyears,orpriortoeachmonitoring/recordingverificationeventwhereverificationoccursmorefrequently.QA/QCprocedurestobeN/AappliedPurposeofdataCalculationofprojectemissionsCalculationmethodInGISCommentsNone63VMD0055,v1.0Data/ParameterALB-UDef,r,iDataunithaDescriptionAreaofforestintheUDefLBatthestartoftheBVPinriskclassrinforeststratumiEquationsSection5.3.2.2,(2)SourceofdataProjectproponent(spatiallyexplicitmapofforeststratadevelopedbyprojectproponentandspatialsubsetofthejurisdictionaldeforestationriskmapDescriptionofassociatedwiththerelevantBVP)measurementmethodsInGISandprocedurestobeappliedEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybeFrequencyofshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.15.3.1;subsequentmonitoring/recordingbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.N/AQA/QCprocedurestobeappliedCalculationofleakageemissionsPurposeofdataSpatialoverlayoftheFCBM,thejurisdictionaldeforestationriskmapandaCalculationmethodproject-developedforeststratificationmapNoneCommentsData/ParameterAPA-UDef,r,iDataunitDescriptionhaEquationsAreaofforestintheUDefPAatthestartoftheBVPinriskclassrinforestSourceofdatastratumiSection5.3.2.2,(1)Projectproponent(spatiallyexplicitmapofforeststratadevelopedbyprojectproponentandspatialsubsetofthejurisdictionaldeforestationriskmapassociatedwiththerelevantBVP)64VMD0055,v1.0DescriptionofCalculatedinGISmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybeappliedshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.15.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.FrequencyofN/Amonitoring/recordingCalculationofbaselineemissionsQA/QCprocedurestobeSpatialoverlayoftheFCBM,thejurisdictionaldeforestationriskmapandaappliedproject-developedforeststratificationmapNonePurposeofdataCalculationmethodCommentsData/ParameterADLB-UDef,rhaDataunitUnplanneddeforestationactivitydataallocatedtotheUDefLBinriskclassr(2),Section5.3.2.2,Appendix1A1.4.3Step3DescriptionVerra(UDef-ATandAppendix1)UDef-ATandAppendix1EquationsEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybeSourceofdatashorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.15.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.DescriptionofN/AmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeCalculationofleakageemissionsappliedApplicationofAppendix1andUDef-ATbyVerraFrequencyofmonitoring/recordingQA/QCprocedurestobeappliedPurposeofdataCalculationmethod65VMD0055,v1.0CommentsNoneData/ParameterAssDataunithaDescriptionAreaofsamplingstratumssintheprojectsamplingframe(ha)EquationsSection5.3.3.2SourceofdataProject(calculatedinaGISfromspatialstratificationoftheprojectsamplingframe)DescriptionofN/AmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeappliedFrequencyofMonitoringmustbeconductedatleasteveryfiveyears,orpriortoeachmonitoring/recordingverificationeventwhereverificationoccursmorefrequently.QA/QCprocedurestobeN/AappliedPurposeofdataCalculationofprojectemissionsCalculationmethodInGISCommentsNoneData/ParameterADPA-UDef,rDataunithaDescriptionUnplanneddeforestationactivitydataallocatedtotheUDefPAinriskclassrinthejurisdictionEquationsSection5.3.2.2,(1),SectionA1.4.3Step3SourceofdataVerra(throughtheADBaselineAllocationReportandUDef-AT)DescriptionofApproachtobedeterminedandappliedbyDSPselectedbyVerrameasurementmethodsandprocedurestobe66appliedVMD0055,v1.0FrequencyofEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybemonitoring/recordingshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.15.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.QA/QCprocedurestobeN/AappliedPurposeofdataCalculationofbaselineemissionsCalculationmethodApplicationofAppendix1byVerraCommentsNoneData/ParameterBuffer%Dataunit%DescriptionBufferwithholdingpercentageEquations(51)SourceofdataVCSAFOLUNon-PermanenceRiskToolDescriptionofSeeVCSAFOLUNon-PermanenceRiskToolmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeappliedFrequencyofEveryverificationeventmonitoring/recordingQA/QCprocedurestobeN/AappliedPurposeofdataCalculationofVCUsCalculationmethodSeeSection5.3.5.1andtheVCSStandardCommentsNoneData/ParameterCp,iDataunittCO2e/haDescriptionEstimatedcarbonstockinpoolpofforeststratumi67VMD0055,v1.0Equations(3),(4)Projectproponent(poolmodulesCP-AB,CP-D,CP-L,CP-S,CP-W)SourceofdataSeemodulesCP-AB,CP-D,CP-L,CP-S,CP-WDescriptionofEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybemeasurementmethodsshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.15.3.1;subsequentandprocedurestobebaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.appliedSeemodulesCP-AB,CP-D,CP-L,CP-S,CP-WFrequencyofCalculationofbaselineemissions,projectemissionsandleakageemissionsmonitoring/recordingSeemodulesCP-AB,CP-D,CP-L,CP-S,CP-WNoneQA/QCprocedurestobeappliedPurposeofdataCalculationmethodCommentsData/ParameterCp,post,iDataunitDescriptiontCO2e/haEquationsSourceofdataEstimatedcarbonstockinpost-deforestationpoolpinforeststratumi(3),(4)ProjectproponentPublishedand/orpeer-reviewedstudiesselectedfromthefollowing,indescendingorderofpreference:1)Within5kmoftheprojectboundary2)Subnationaljurisdiction3)Nationaljurisdiction4)Nationaldatafromneighboringcountrieswithsimilarconditions5)GlobalWherethesedataareinadequateornotappropriate,fieldsamplingmaytakeplacewithinthejurisdiction.Fieldsamplingdesignmustresultinanestimatethatproducesconservativeestimatesofthecarbonstocks.68VMD0055,v1.0DescriptionofSeemodulesCP-AB,CP-D,CP-L,CP-S,CP-WmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybeappliedshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.FrequencyofSeemodulesCP-AB,CP-D,CP-L,CP-S,CP-Wmonitoring/recordingCalculationofbaselineemissions,projectemissionsandleakageemissionsQA/QCprocedurestobeStockestimatesofeachnon-forestlanduseclassrepresentedmustbeequalappliedtothelong-termaveragestocks(time-weightedaverageofstocksincyclicalPurposeofdatapost-deforestationland-usesystemssuchasshiftingagriculturewithfallow).CalculationmethodNotethatinEquation(3)Cp,post,iisreplacedbytheparametersspecifictoindividualpoolsasdetailedinTable2.CommentsData/ParameterCAB_nontree,itCO2e/haDataunitForestcarbonstockinabovegroundnon-treewoodyvegetationinstratumiSection5.3.2.3,(3),(4)DescriptionProjectproponent(fieldmeasurementsasdelineatedinCP-AB)SeemoduleCP-ABEquationsEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybeSourceofdatashorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.DescriptionofSeemoduleCP-ABmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeCalculationofbaselineemissions,projectemissionsandleakageemissionsappliedFrequencyofmonitoring/recordingQA/QCprocedurestobeappliedPurposeofdata69VMD0055,v1.0CalculationmethodSeemoduleCP-ABCommentsNoneData/ParameterCAB_nontree,post,iDataunitDescriptiontCO2e/haEquationsSourceofdataPost-landusetransitioncarbonstockinabovegroundnon-treewoodyvegetationinstratumiDescriptionofmeasurementmethodsSection5.3.2.3,(3),(4)andprocedurestobeappliedProjectproponentFrequencyofPublishedand/orpeer-reviewedstudiesselectedfromthefollowing,inmonitoring/recordingdescendingorderofpreference:QA/QCprocedurestobeapplied1)Within5kmoftheprojectboundaryPurposeofdata2)SubnationaljurisdictionCalculationmethod3)Nationaljurisdiction4)NationaldatafromneighboringcountrieswithsimilarconditionsComments5)GlobalWherethesedataareinadequateornotappropriate,fieldsamplingmaytakeplacewithinthejurisdiction.Fieldsamplingdesignmustresultinanestimatethatproducesconservativeestimatesofthecarbonstocks.SeemoduleCP-ABEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybeshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.SeemoduleCP-ABCalculationofbaselineemissions,projectemissionsandleakageemissionsStockestimatesofeachnon-forestlanduseclassrepresentedmustbeequaltothelong-termaveragestocks(time-weightedaverageofstocksincyclicalpost-deforestationland-usesystemssuchasshiftingagriculturewithfallow).None70VMD0055,v1.0Data/ParameterCAB_tree,itCO2e/haDataunitForestcarbonstockinabovegroundtreebiomassinstratumiSection5.3.2.3,(3),(4)DescriptionProjectproponent(asdelineatedinmoduleCP-AB)SeemoduleCP-ABEquationsEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybeSourceofdatashorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.DescriptionofSeemoduleCP-ABmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeCalculationofbaselineemissions,projectemissionsandleakageemissionsappliedSeemoduleCP-ABNoneFrequencyofmonitoring/recordingQA/QCprocedurestobeappliedPurposeofdataCalculationmethodCommentsData/ParameterCAB_tree,post,iDataunitDescriptiontCO2e/haEquationsPost-landusetransitioncarbonstockinabovegroundtreebiomassinstratumiSection5.3.2.3,(3),(4)71VMD0055,v1.0SourceofdataProjectproponentPublishedand/orpeer-reviewedstudiesselectedfromthefollowing,listedinDescriptionofdescendingorderofpreference:measurementmethodsandprocedurestobe1)Within5kmoftheprojectboundaryapplied2)Sub-nationaljurisdictionFrequencyof3)Nationaljurisdictionmonitoring/recording4)NationaldatafromneighboringcountrieswithsimilarconditionsQA/QCprocedurestobe5)GlobalappliedWherethesedataareinadequateornotappropriate,fieldsamplingmaytakePurposeofdataplacewithinthejurisdiction.FieldsamplingdesignmustresultinanestimateCalculationmethodthatproducesconservativeestimatesofthecarbonstocks.CommentsSeemoduleCP-ABEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybeshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.SeemoduleCP-ABCalculationofbaselineemissions,projectemissionsandleakageemissionsStockestimatesofeachnon-forestlanduseclassrepresentedmustbeequaltothelong-termaveragestocks(time-weightedaverageofstocksincyclicalpost-deforestationland-usesystemssuchasshiftingagriculturewithfallow).NoneData/ParameterCBB_nontree,iDataunittCO2e/haDescriptionForestcarbonstockinthebelowgroundnon-treewoodybiomasspoolinstratumiEquationsSection5.3.2.3,(3),(4)SourceofdataProjectproponent(fieldmeasurementsasdelineatedinmoduleCP-AB)72VMD0055,v1.0DescriptionofSeemoduleCP-ABmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybeappliedshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.FrequencyofSeemoduleCP-ABmonitoring/recordingCalculationofbaselineemissions,projectemissionsandleakageemissionsQA/QCprocedurestobeSeemoduleCP-ABappliedNonePurposeofdataCalculationmethodCommentsData/ParameterCBB_nontree,post,iDataunitDescriptiontCO2e/haEquationsSourceofdataPostlandusetransitioncarbonstockinthebelowgroundnon-treewoodybiomasspoolinstratumiDescriptionofmeasurementmethodsSection5.3.2.3,(3),(4)andprocedurestobeappliedProjectproponentPublishedand/orpeer-reviewedstudiesselectedfromthefollowing,indescendingorderofpreference:1)Within5kmoftheprojectboundary2)Subnationaljurisdiction3)Nationaljurisdiction4)Nationaldatafromneighboringcountrieswithsimilarconditions5)GlobalWherethesedataareinadequateornotappropriate,fieldsamplingmaytakeplacewithinthejurisdiction.Fieldsamplingdesignmustresultinanestimatethatproducesconservativeestimatesofthecarbonstocks.SeemoduleCP-AB73VMD0055,v1.0FrequencyofEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybemonitoring/recordingshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.QA/QCprocedurestobeappliedSeemoduleCP-ABPurposeofdataCalculationmethodCalculationofbaselineemissions,projectemissionsandleakageemissionsCommentsStockestimatesofeachnon-forestlanduseclassrepresentedmustbeequaltothelong-termaveragestocks(time-weightedaverageofstocksincyclicalpost-deforestationland-usesystemssuchasshiftingagriculturewithfallow).NoneData/ParameterCBB_tree,itCO2e/haDataunitForestcarbonstockinbelowgroundtreebiomassinstratumiSection5.3.2.3,(3),(4)DescriptionProjectproponent(fieldmeasurementsasdelineatedinmoduleCP-AB)SeemoduleCP-ABEquationsEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybeSourceofdatashorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.DescriptionofSeemoduleCP-ABmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeCalculationofbaselineemissions,projectemissionsandleakageemissionsappliedSeemoduleCP-ABNoneFrequencyofmonitoring/recordingQA/QCprocedurestobeappliedPurposeofdataCalculationmethodCommentsData/ParameterCBB_tree,post,i74VMD0055,v1.0DataunittCO2e/haDescriptionEquationsPostlandusetransitioncarbonstockinbelowgroundtreebiomassinstratumSourceofdataiDescriptionofSection5.3.2.3,(3),(4)measurementmethodsandprocedurestobeProjectproponentappliedPublishedand/orpeer-reviewedstudiesselectedfromthefollowing,listedinFrequencyofdescendingorderofpreference:monitoring/recordingQA/QCprocedurestobe1)Within5kmoftheprojectboundaryapplied2)SubnationaljurisdictionPurposeofdata3)NationaljurisdictionCalculationmethod4)Nationaldatafromneighboringcountrieswithsimilarconditions5)GlobalCommentsWherethesedataareinadequateornotappropriate,fieldsamplingmaytakeplacewithinthejurisdiction.Fieldsamplingdesignmustresultinanestimatethatproducesconservativeestimatesofthecarbonstocks.SeemoduleCP-ABEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybeshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.SeemoduleCP-ABCalculationofbaselineemissions,projectemissionsandleakageemissionsStockestimatesofeachnon-forestlanduseclassrepresentedmustbeequaltothelong-termaveragestocks(time-weightedaverageofstocksincyclicalpost-deforestationland-usesystemssuchasshiftingagriculturewithfallow).NoneData/ParameterCDW,iDataunittCO2e/haDescriptionForestcarbonstockinthedeadwoodpoolinstratumi75VMD0055,v1.0EquationsSection5.3.2.3,(3),(4)Projectproponent(fieldmeasurementsasdelineatedinmoduleCP-D)SourceofdataSeemoduleCP-DDescriptionofEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybemeasurementmethodsshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselinesandprocedurestobewillberenewedeverysixyears.appliedSeemoduleCP-DFrequencyofCalculationofbaselineemissions,projectemissionsandleakageemissionsmonitoring/recordingSeemoduleCP-DNoneQA/QCprocedurestobeappliedPurposeofdataCalculationmethodCommentsData/ParameterCDW,post,iDataunitDescriptiontCO2e/haEquationsSourceofdataPost-deforestationcarbonstockinthedeadwoodpoolinstratumiSection5.3.2.3,(3),(4)ProjectproponentPublishedand/orpeer-reviewedstudiesselectedfromthefollowing,listedindescendingorderofpreference:1)Within5kmoftheprojectboundary2)Subnationaljurisdiction3)Nationaljurisdiction4)Nationaldatafromneighboringcountrieswithsimilarconditions5)GlobalWherethesedataareinadequateornotappropriate,fieldsamplingmaytakeplacewithinthejurisdiction.Fieldsamplingdesignmustresultinanestimatethatproducesconservativeestimatesofthecarbonstocks.76VMD0055,v1.0DescriptionofSeemoduleCP-DmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybeappliedshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselinesFrequencyofwillberenewedeverysixyears.monitoring/recordingSeemoduleCP-DQA/QCprocedurestobeCalculationofbaselineemissions,projectemissionsandleakageemissionsappliedStockestimatesofeachnon-forestlanduseclassrepresentedmustbeequalPurposeofdatatothelong-termaveragestocks(time-weightedaverageofstocksincyclicalCalculationmethodpost-deforestationland-usesystemssuchasshiftingagriculturewithfallow).NoneCommentsData/ParameterCLI,itCO2e/haDataunitForestcarbonstockinthelitterpoolinstratumiSection5.3.2.3,(3),(4)DescriptionProjectproponent(fieldmeasurementsasdelineatedinmoduleCP-L)SeemoduleCP-LEquationsEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybeSourceofdatashorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.DescriptionofSeemoduleCP-LmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeCalculationofbaselineemissions,projectemissionsandleakageemissionsappliedSeemoduleCP-LFrequencyofmonitoring/recordingQA/QCprocedurestobeappliedPurposeofdataCalculationmethod77VMD0055,v1.0CommentsNoneData/ParameterCLI,post,iDataunitDescriptiontCO2e/haEquationsSourceofdataPost-deforestationcarbonstockinthelitterpoolinstratumiDescriptionofSection5.3.2.3,(3),(4)measurementmethodsandprocedurestobeProjectproponentappliedPublishedand/orpeer-reviewedstudiesselectedfromthefollowing,listedinFrequencyofdescendingorderofpreference:monitoring/recordingQA/QCprocedurestobe1)Within5kmoftheprojectboundaryapplied2)SubnationaljurisdictionPurposeofdata3)NationaljurisdictionCalculationmethod4)Nationaldatafromneighboringcountrieswithsimilarconditions5)GlobalCommentsWherethesedataareinadequateornotappropriate,fieldsamplingmaytakeplacewithinthejurisdiction.Fieldsamplingdesignmustresultinanestimatethatproducesconservativeestimatesofthecarbonstocks.SeemoduleCP-LEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybeshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.SeemoduleCP-LCalculationofbaselineemissions,projectemissionsandleakageemissionsStockestimatesofeachnon-forestlanduseclassrepresentedmustbeequaltothelong-termaveragestocks(time-weightedaverageofstocksincyclicalpost-deforestationland-usesystemssuchasshiftingagriculturewithfallow).None78VMD0055,v1.0Data/ParameterCSOC,iDataunittCO2e/haForestcarbonstockinthesoilorganiccarbonpoolinstratumiDescriptionSection5.3.2.3,(3),(4)Projectproponent(fieldmeasurementsasdelineatedinmoduleCP-S)EquationsSeemoduleCP-SSourceofdataDescriptionofEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybemeasurementmethodsshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselinesandprocedurestobewillberenewedeverysixyears.appliedSeemoduleCP-SFrequencyofCalculationofbaselineemissions,projectemissionsandleakageemissionsmonitoring/recordingSeemoduleCP-SNoneQA/QCprocedurestobeappliedPurposeofdataCalculationmethodCommentsData/ParameterCSOC,post,iDataunittCO2e/haDescriptionPost-deforestationcarbonstockinthesoilorganiccarbonpoolinstratumiEquationsSection5.3.2.3,(3),(4)79VMD0055,v1.0SourceofdataProjectproponentPublishedand/orpeer-reviewedstudiesselectedfromthefollowing,listedinDescriptionofdescendingorderofpreference:measurementmethodsandprocedurestobe1)Within5kmoftheprojectboundaryapplied2)SubnationaljurisdictionFrequencyof3)Nationaljurisdictionmonitoring/recording4)NationaldatafromneighboringcountrieswithsimilarconditionsQA/QCprocedurestobe5)GlobalappliedWherethesedataareinadequateornotappropriate,fieldsamplingmaytakePurposeofdataplacewithinthejurisdiction.FieldsamplingdesignmustresultinanestimateCalculationmethodthatproducesconservativeestimatesofthecarbonstocks.CommentsSeemoduleCP-S(equivalenttoCSOC,PD-BSL,iinCP-S)Everysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybeshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.SeemoduleCP-SCalculationofbaselineemissions,projectemissionsandleakageemissionsStockestimatesofeachnon-forestlanduseclassrepresentedmustbeequaltothelong-termaveragestocks(time-weightedaverageofstocksincyclicalpost-deforestationland-usesystemssuchasshiftingagriculturewithfallow).NoneData/ParameterCWP,iDataunittCO2e/haDescriptionMeancarbonstocksenteringthewoodproductpoolatthetimeofEquationsdeforestationfromforeststratumiSourceofdataSection5.3.2.3,(3),(4),(12),(15)Projectproponent(asdelineatedinmoduleCP-W)80VMD0055,v1.0DescriptionofSeemoduleCP-WmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybeappliedshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.FrequencyofSeemoduleCP-Wmonitoring/recordingCalculationofbaselineemissions,projectemissionsandleakageemissionsQA/QCprocedurestobeSeemoduleCP-WappliedNonePurposeofdataCalculationmethodCommentsData/ParameterCWP100,iDataunittCO2e/haDescriptionCarbonstockenteringthewoodproductspoolfromforeststratumiatthetimeofdeforestationthatisexpectedtobeemittedover100yearsEquationsSection5.3.2.3,(3),(4),(14),(17)SourceofdataProjectproponent(asdelineatedinmoduleCP-W)DescriptionofSeemoduleCP-WmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybeappliedshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.FrequencyofSeemoduleCP-Wmonitoring/recordingCalculationofbaselineemissions,projectemissionsandleakageemissionsQA/QCprocedurestobeSeemoduleCP-WappliedPurposeofdataCalculationmethod81VMD0055,v1.0CommentsNoneData/ParameterMPLDataunityearsDescriptionLengthofmonitoringperiodEquations(32),(33)SourceofdataProjectproponent(metadataofimageryusedtoundertakeplotinterpretationforprojectmonitoring)DescriptionofN/AmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeMonitoringmustbeconductedatleasteveryfiveyears,orpriortoeachappliedverificationeventwhereverificationoccursmorefrequently.FrequencyofN/Amonitoring/recordingQA/QCprocedurestobeCalculationofprojectemissionsappliedCalculatedasthedifferencebetweentheaveragedatesofimageryusedtoPurposeofdataassesssampleplotsatthestartandendofthemonitoredperiod.CalculationmethodNoneCommentsData/ParameterΔCLK-ME,tDataunittCO2eDescriptionCumulativenetGHGemissionsduetomarket-effectsleakageinyeartEquationsSection5.3.4.6,(49)SourceofdataProjectproponent(asdelineatedinmoduleLK-ME)DescriptionofSeemoduleLK-MEmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeapplied82VMD0055,v1.0FrequencyofMonitoringmustbeconductedatleasteveryfiveyears,orpriortoeachmonitoring/recordingverificationeventwhereverificationoccursmorefrequently.SeemoduleLK-MEQA/QCprocedurestobeappliedCalculationofleakageSeemoduleLK-MEPurposeofdataNetGHGemissionsduetomarket-effectsleakagesummeduptoyeartCalculationmethodCommentsData/ParameterΔCOLB,tDataunittCO2e/haDescriptionEmissionsfromcarbonstockchangeduetolandcovertransitioninareasavailableforactivityshiftingoutsidetheUDefLB,ascalculatedforyeartEquations(46)SourceofdataVerra(seeAppendix2SectionA2.2;derivedbyVerrafromaveragecarbonstocksinpixelsavailablefordeforestationfromaglobalcarbonstockmap,DescriptionofwhererelevantwithadditionofbelowgroundbiomassfromIPCCroot-to-shootmeasurementmethodsratios)andprocedurestobeSeeAppendix2A2.2appliedFrequencyofEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybemonitoring/recordingshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.QA/QCprocedurestobeN/AappliedPurposeofdataCalculationofleakageemissionsCalculationmethodSeeAppendix2A2.2CommentsNone83VMD0055,v1.0Data/ParameterCountJCHC,ssDataunitDescriptionSamplingunitsEquationsSourceofdataTotalcountofthesampleunitsthatfallintosamplingstratumssandchangeDescriptionofcategoryCHC(UDef/SF/SNF/Reg)measurementmethodsandprocedurestobe(53),(55)appliedFrequencyofVerra(interpretationofhigh-resolutionsatelliteimageryand/orgroundmonitoring/recordingmeasurements)QA/QCprocedurestobeSeeAppendix1appliedEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybePurposeofdatashorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselinesCalculationmethodwillberenewedeverysixyears.ImageryInterpretationMethodTheinterpretationandrecordkeepingapproachmustbedocumentedthroughSOPs,allowingtheprocesstobereproducedbyindividualsnotinvolvedininitialdatageneration.Themethodsemployedmustmeetthefollowingminimumcharacteristics:•Theinterpretationapproachprovidessufficientobjectivecriteriatoallowinterpreterstoindependentlyandconsistentlyproducesimilarinterpretationsforthesamesamples.Interpretationcriteriashouldrelatetothephysicaldefinitionsoflandcoverclasses,asfarasthosecriteriamaybeinterpretedfromhigh-resolutionimagery.•Multipleanalystsareemployedtointerpreteachplotthroughblindlyrepeatedobservationsorteam-basedinterpretation.•Observationfocusesonidentifyingasample’sclassateachoftwosinglepointsintime,thebeginningandendoftheHRP.Thechangeisdeterminedasthedifferencebetweenthestartandendclasses.•Wherethereisanalystdisagreementovertheinterpretationofasample,anobjectiveprocessisputinplacetoeitheradjudicatethedisputeandresolvetheplottoasingleclass,orrejecttheplotasunclear.Adjudicationmustalwaysbeattemptedbeforerejection.Informationonallrejectedplotsmustberetained,anditmustbedemonstratedthattherejectionofplotsdoesnotbiastheresults.Calculationofbaselineemissions,projectemissionsandleakageemissionsAsabove84CommentsVMD0055,v1.0CHC=UDef,SF,SNF,Reg(unplanneddeforestation,stableforest,stablenonforest,regrowth)Data/ParameterCountssDataunitSampleunitsDescriptionTotalcountofsampleunitsinsamplingstratumssEquationsTable6,(23),(26)SourceofdataProjectproponent(interpretationofhigh-resolutionsatelliteimageryandgroundmeasurements)DescriptionofSeeAppendix1measurementmethodsandprocedurestobeappliedFrequencyofMonitoringmustbeconductedatleasteveryfiveyears,orpriortoeachmonitoring/recordingverificationeventwhereverificationoccursmorefrequently.QA/QCprocedurestobeAsdescribedinStandardOperatingProceduresforSamplePlotappliedInterpretationPurposeofdataCalculationofprojectemissionsandleakageemissionsCalculationmethodApproachmustcomplywithallrelevantrequirementsofAppendix1.CommentsNoneData/ParameterCountCHC,ssDataunitDescriptionSampleunitsEquationsSourceofdataCountofthesampleunitswithintheprojectsamplingframethatfallintosamplingstratumssandareclassifiedaschangecategoryCHC(UDef/SF/SNF/Reg)Table6,(23),(26)Project(interpretationofhigh-resolutionsatelliteimageryandgroundmeasurements)85VMD0055,v1.0DescriptionofSeeAppendix1measurementmethodsandprocedurestobeappliedFrequencyofMonitoringmustbeconductedatleasteveryfiveyears,orpriortoeachmonitoring/recordingverificationeventwhereverificationoccursmorefrequently.QA/QCprocedurestobeAsdescribedinStandardOperatingProceduresforSamplePlotappliedInterpretationPurposeofdataCalculationofprojectemissionsandleakageemissionsCalculationmethodApproachmustcomplywithallrelevantrequirementsofAppendix1.CommentsCHC=UDef,SF,SNF,Reg(unplanneddeforestation,stableforest,stablenonforest,regrowth)Data/ParameterEBSL,BiomassBurn,i,tDataunittCO2eDescriptionNon-CO2emissionsduetobiomassburningaspartofprojectactivitiesinforeststratumiinyeartEquations(20),(42)SourceofdataProjectproponent(asdelineatedinmoduleE-BPB)DescriptionofSeemoduleE-BPBmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybeappliedshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselinesFrequencyofwillberenewedeverysixyears.monitoring/recordingSeemoduleE-BPBQA/QCprocedurestobeCalculationofbaselineemissionsappliedModuleE-BPBPurposeofdataNoneCalculationmethodComments86VMD0055,v1.0Data/ParameterEMP,BiomassBurn,i,tDataunittCO2eDescriptionNon-CO2emissionsduetobiomassburningaspartofprojectactivitiesinforeststratumiinyeartEquationsNote–inapplicationintheleakagemanagementzones,therearenostrataSourceofdataandsubscriptishouldbeomitted.Descriptionof(38),(48)measurementmethodsProjectproponent(asdelineatedinmoduleE-BPB)andprocedurestobeSeemoduleE-BPBappliedFrequencyofMonitoringmustbeconductedatleasteveryfiveyears,orpriortoeachmonitoring/recordingverificationeventwhereverificationoccursmorefrequently.QA/QCprocedurestobeSeemoduleE-BPBappliedPurposeofdataCalculationofprojectemissionsCalculationmethodSeemoduleE-BPBCommentsNoneData/ParameterECstocks,LMZ,tDataunittCO2eNetCO2eemissionsfromcarbonstockchangesduetotheimplementationofDescriptionleakagemitigationmeasuresintheleakagemanagementzoneinyeart(48)EquationsProjectproponent(asdelineatedinmoduleCP-AB)SeemoduleCP-ABSourceofdata87DescriptionofmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeappliedVMD0055,v1.0FrequencyofEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybemonitoring/recordingshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.QA/QCprocedurestobeSeemoduleCP-ABappliedPurposeofdataCalculationofleakageemissionsCalculationmethodSeemoduleCP-ABCommentsNoneData/ParameterEBSL,FC,i,tDataunittCO2eDescriptionEmissionsfromfossilfuelcombustioninforeststratumiinyeartofthebaselineEquations(20),(42)SourceofdataProjectproponentExante:defaultvaluesfromIPCC2006(including2019Refinement)orpeerDescriptionofreviewedliteraturemeasurementmethodsExpost:asdelineatedinmoduleE-FFCandprocedurestobeSeemoduleE-FFCappliedFrequencyofEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybemonitoring/recordingshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.QA/QCprocedurestobeSeemoduleE-FFCappliedPurposeofdataCalculationofbaselineemissionsandleakageemissionsCalculationmethodModuleE-FFCCommentsNone88VMD0055,v1.0Data/ParameterEMP,FC,i,tDataunittCO2eDescriptionEmissionsfromfossilfuelcombustioninforeststratumiinyeartEquations(38)SourceofdataProjectproponentExante:defaultvaluesfromIPCC2006(including2019Refinement)orpeerDescriptionofreviewedliteraturemeasurementmethodsExpost:asdelineatedinmoduleE-FFC)andprocedurestobeSeemoduleE-FFCappliedFrequencyofMonitoringmustbeconductedatleasteveryfiveyears,orpriortoeachmonitoring/recordingverificationeventwhereverificationoccursmorefrequently.QA/QCprocedurestobeSeemoduleE-FFCappliedPurposeofdataCalculationofprojectemissionsCalculationmethodSeemoduleE-FFCCommentsNoneData/ParameterN2OBSL,direct-N,i,tDataunittCO2eDescriptionDirectN2OemissionsasaresultofnitrogenapplicationonanalternativelanduseinstratumiinyeartofthebaselineEquations(20),(42)SourceofdataProjectproponent(asdelineatedinmoduleE-NA)DescriptionofSeemoduleE-NAmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeapplied89VMD0055,v1.0FrequencyofEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybemonitoring/recordingshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.QA/QCprocedurestobeSeemoduleE-NAappliedCalculationofbaselineemissionsandleakageemissionsPurposeofdataSeemoduleE-NANoneCalculationmethodCommentsData/ParameterN2OMP,direct-N,i,tDataunittCO2eDescriptionN2OemissionsresultingfromnitrogenapplicationonanalternativelanduseinstratumiinyeartNote–inapplicationintheleakagemanagementzones,therearenostrataandsubscriptishouldbeomitted.Equations(38),(48)SourceofdataProjectproponent(asdelineatedinmoduleE-NA)DescriptionofSeemoduleE-NAmeasurementmethodsandprocedurestobeappliedFrequencyofMonitoringmustbeconductedatleasteveryfiveyears,orpriortoeachmonitoring/recordingverificationeventwhereverificationoccursmorefrequently.QA/QCprocedurestobeSeemoduleE-NAappliedPurposeofdataCalculationofprojectemissionsCalculationmethodSeemoduleE-NACommentsNoneData/ParameterPROPMIG90VMD0055,v1.0DataunitProportionDescriptionProportionofhouseholdslivingintheprojectactivitiesregionthatarerecentmigrantsandareengaginginlanduseactivitiesidentifiedasabaselinedriverofunplanneddeforestationEquationsSection5.3.4.4,(45)SourceofdataProjectproponent(throughparticipatoryruralappraisal)DescriptionofForsamplingrequirementsrefertoCDMGuideline:SamplingandsurveysformeasurementmethodsandCDMprojectactivitiesandprogrammesofactivities.procedurestobeappliedPROPMIGmayalwaysbeassignedaconservativevalueof1.0.FrequencyofEverysixyearsatbaselinerenewal.Notethataproject’sinitialBVPmaybemonitoring/recordingshorterthansixyears,asprovidedforinSection5.3.1;subsequentbaselineswillberenewedeverysixyears.QA/QCprocedurestobeForsamplingrequirementsrefertoCDMGuideline:SamplingandsurveysforappliedCDMprojectactivitiesandprogrammesofactivities.PurposeofdataCalculationofleakageemissionsCalculationmethodSurveyCommentsNoneData/Parametertstart,ss,stend,ss,sDataunitDecimalyearDescriptionDateofimageusedtointerpretthestartandenddatesofsamplesclassifiedinsamplingstratumssEquations(60),(61)SourceofdataProjectproponent(frommetadataprovidedwithhighresolutionimageryusedinsampleplotinterpretation,orforgroundobservations,dateoffieldvisit)DescriptionofmeasurementmethodsandN/Aprocedurestobeapplied91VMD0055,v1.0FrequencyofMonitoringmustbeconductedatleasteveryfiveyears,orpriortoeachmonitoring/recordingverificationeventwhereverificationoccursmorefrequently.QA/QCprocedurestobeappliedN/APurposeofdataCalculationmethodCalculationofprojectemissionsandleakageemissionsCommentsN/AForimagesthatarecompositesofmultipleimagingdates,themidpointofthetimeperiodrepresentedinthecompositemustbetakenasthecollectiondate.92VMD0055,v1.07REFERENCESCDM(2015).Guideline:SamplingandsurveysforCDMprojectactivitiesandprogrammesofactivities.Availableat:https://cdm.unfccc.int/sunsetcms/storage/contents/stored-file-20151023152925068/Meth_GC48_%28ver04.0%29.pdfGFOI(2020).Integrationofremote-sensingandground-basedobservationsforestimationofemissionsandremovalsofgreenhousegasesinforests,Edition3.0.Availableat:https://www.fs.usda.gov/rm/pubs_journals/2020/rmrs_2020_espejo_a001.pdfHiraishi,T.,Krug,T.,Tanabe,K.,Srivastava,N.,Baasansuren,J.,Fukuda,M.&Troxler,T.G.(eds)(2014).2013Supplementtothe2006IPCCGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventories:Wetlands.IPCC,Switzerland.Availableat:https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/Wetlands_Supplement_Entire_Report.pdfIPCC.(2019).2019Refinementtothe2006IPCCGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventories.Availableat:https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2019rf/vol4.htmlIversen,P.,Lee,D.,&Rocha,M.(2014).Chapter2.2.3Landversusactivity-basedapproaches.In:UnderstandingLandUseintheUNFCCC.Availableat:https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/Land_Use_Guide.pdfTobler,W.(1993).ThreePresentationsonGeographicalAnalysisandModeling:Non-IsotropicModeling;SpeculationsontheGeometryofGeography;andGlobalSpatialAnalysis(93-1).NationalCenterforGeographicInformationandAnalysis,UCSantaBarbara.Availableat:https://escholarship.org/uc/item/05r820mz93VMD0055,v1.0APPENDIX1:DETERMINATIONOFJURISDICTIONALDATAFORPROJECTADALLOCATIONA1.1GeneralTheADbaselineforunplanneddeforestationisthejurisdictionalaverageannualrateofunplanneddeforestation.ThejurisdictionalbaselineADmustbeupdatedattheendofeachBVP.Verrawillestablishjurisdictionalbaselinesandallocatethemtoprojects;VerraisresponsibleforalloftheactionsinthisAppendix1.ProjectallocationswillbedocumentedinanADBaselineAllocationReport.Thisreportincludesthefollowing:1)DefinitionofforestusedinFCBMconstruction;2)DefinitionofdeforestationusedinADestimation;3)StartandenddateoftheHRP;4)StartandenddateoftheBVP;5)TableoftotalADallocationtoeachriskclassfortheUDefPAandUDefLBovertheBVP;6)ThejurisdictionalFCBM;7)Thejurisdictionaldeforestationriskmap–independentlyassessedforappropriatenessandmethodologicalsoundness–includingthenameoftheDSPthatdevelopedit,datalayersandtypeofstatisticalmodelused,predictionabilitystatisticsandtherelevantdigitalGISfiles;8)ThespatialboundariesofanyregisteredAFOLUcarbonprojects,associatedleakagebeltsandprojectsintheVCSprojectpipeline;19and9)ThejurisdictionalemissionfactorduetolandcovertransitioninareasavailableforactivityshiftingoutsidetheUDefLB.Theapplicationofthisprocedureemploysactivity-basedaccounting.2019Limitedtoprojectsthatusethismodule20Theactivity-basedapproachtoemissionsestimationconsistsofidentifyingspecificactivitiesoccurringonthelandthatinfluenceGHGfluxesandfocusingontheprojectactivities,allowingfordifferentiationbetweenactivities.SeeIversenetal.(2014)formoreinformation.94VMD0055,v1.0A1.2BoundariesA1.2.1JurisdictionalBoundariesThelocationdescriptionofthejurisdictionmustincludethefollowinginformation:1)Nameofthejurisdiction;2)Vectorizeddigitalfile(e.g.,shapefile,kmz,geojson)ofthejurisdictionboundaries,includinginformationontheprojectionanddatumused;3)Geodeticcoordinatesoftheverticesofthejurisdictionboundary,providedintheformatspecifiedintheVCSStandard;and4)Totalterrestrialareacoveredbythejurisdictioninhectares,calculatedinaGISprogramusinganequalareaprojectioninmeters.Thejurisdictionalboundarymustbedefinedusingoneofthefollowingcases:•Thenationalboundariesmayalwaysbeusedasthejurisdiction.•WherethereisaclearexpressionofgovernmentintenttousealternativeboundariesindevelopingjurisdictionalREDD+programs,21theboundariesofagovernment’sjurisdictionalREDD+programmaybeused.Onlyinthiscasemayboundariesbedefinedusingnon-administrativeboundaries(e.g.,biomes,ecozones,watersheds).•Theboundariesofoneorseveralcontiguousjurisdictionsateithersecondorthirdlevel(i.e.,administrativelevelbelowthenationallevel)maybeusedwherethese,takentogether,coveratleast2.5millionhectares.Wheretheareaamountstomorethanhalfofthecountryarea,thewholecountrymustbeincluded.Thejurisdictionmayincludeforestandnon-forestlandsandmustconsistofthefullspatialextentoftheselectedadministrativeunit.TheboundariesofajurisdictionmustnotspatiallyoverlapwithanyotherjurisdictionalboundarydefinedbyVerraorwithanyregisteredJNRjurisdictionalFRELorprogram.WheretheabovecriteriadefiningjurisdictionalboundariesarenotachievableduetothepresenceofotherjurisdictionsforwhichavalidVCSjurisdictionalADbaselineorJNRprogramandFRELexist,thejurisdictionmustbedefinedastheremainingareawithinthenationalboundary.WhereanexistingUDefPAorUDefLBintersectsmorethanoneadministrativejurisdiction,anapprovedADBaselineAllocationReportwillbedevelopedbyVerrafortheportionoftheUDefPAsorUDefLBsoutsidetheselectedjurisdictionincasenovalidBVPADexistsforsuchjurisdiction.ADmustbeallocatedtotherespectiveportionoftheUDefPAfromeachjurisdiction.21Forexample,thoseincludedinasubmissionofaFRELtotheUNFCCCorasubmissiontotheForestCarbonPartnershipFacility’sCarbonFund,theBioCarbonFundInitiativeforSustainableForestLandscapes(ISFL)ortheArchitectureforREDD+Transactions(ART)REDD+EnvironmentalExcellenceStandard(TREES)95VMD0055,v1.0A1.2.2UDefLBBoundariesThespatialextentofeachproject’sUDefLBmustbedelineatedastheforestarea(asdepictedonthejurisdictionalFCBM)withina10kilometerwidebufferaroundtheUDefPA,excluding:1)Areasthatfalloutsidethenationalboundary;and2)Areasmappedasidentifiedexclusions(seeSectionA1.4.1Step1).Where,followingtheaforementionedexclusionsofforests,theremainingforestareawithina10kmwidebufferexceedstheextentoftheUDefPAattheprojectstartdate,thebufferwidthmustbereducedsothattheareaofforestintheUDefLBisequaltotheextentoftheUDefPAattheprojectstartdate.TheminimumUDefLBbufferwidthmustinallcasesbe2km.WheretheUDefPAincludesnon-contiguousforestpatchesorwhereagroupedprojectiscomposedofmultipleprojectactivityinstances,eachpatchorprojectactivityinstanceisconsideredasaseparate“PAsegment”forthepurposeofUDefLBdelineation.PAsegmentswhoseboundariesareseparatedbynomorethan4kmmustbegroupedintoasinglePAsegmentpriortoUDefLBdelineation.MultiplesmallsegmentsmaythusbeaggregatedintooneorasmallnumberofPAsegmentsandtheUDefLBbufferwidthisdeterminedbasedonthecombinedforestareawithintheaggregatedsegment.AsdetailedinSection5.1.3,furtheractionsmustbetakenbyprojectproponentstodiscountfromUDefLBtheoverlappingPAsandLBsofotherVCSAFOLUregisteredandactiveprojects.A1.3ADCategoriesforWhichHistoricalADEstimatesAreRequiredThefollowingcategoriesmustbeexplicitlydefinedintheADBaselineAllocationReport:1)Foresttonon-forest(deforestation);2)Stableforest;3)Non-foresttoforest22(i.e.,forestregrowth,whichincludesafforestation,reforestationandnaturalregenerationofforests);and4)Stablenon-forest.Deforestationmustbedisaggregatedintoatleastsmall-scaleandlarge-scaleunplanneddeforestation.Othercategoriesdonotrequiredisaggregation(seeTable10).22Wheretreesmeetingthethresholdparametersofthedefinitionof“forest”appearonlandsthatwerenot“forest”inpreviousyears,theselandsshouldbeconsidered“temporarilystocked”(i.e.,not“forest”).Ittakesatleast10consecutiveyearsforsuchlandstobecome“forest”andthereforeitisnotpossibleforthemtobedeforestedearlier.96VMD0055,v1.0Table10:ChangecategoryinclusioncriteriaRequiredchangecategoryRequiredclassesDeforestationLarge-scaleunplanneddeforestation;Small-scaleunplanneddeforestationForestregrowthForestregrowthStableforestStableforestStablenon-forestStablenon-forestA1.4CompilationandAllocationofUDefADVerrawillusethefollowingprocedurestocompilejurisdictionaldeforestationADandallocatethistoUDefPAsandUDefLBs(Figure5).Figure5:AllocationofjurisdictionaldeforestationADtoUDefPAsandUDefLBs97VMD0055,v1.0Historicallandcoverchangeisestimatedusingasampleofhigh-resolutionimagery.UncertaintyoftheestimateisassessedandusedtodeterminewhethertheresultingADmustbeconservativelydiscounted.A1.4.1EstimateAreasofUnplannedDeforestationthatTookPlaceintheJurisdictionDuringtheHRPHistoricalADreferstothetotalareaofthejurisdictionthatexperienceddeforestationovertheHRP.HistoricalADmustbeestimatedusingasample-basedapproachthatuseshumaninterpretationofhigh-resolutionimagerywithinsampleplots23distributedinarepresentativemanneracrossthejurisdiction.Whereavailable,insituobservationsmaybeusedtosupplementvisualinterpretationofsampleplotsbutarenotrequired.Otherspatialdatamaybeusedtoincreasesamplingdesignefficiencyoraidimageinterpretation.ThehistoricalADmustbeconservativelydiscountedbasedontheestimatedstatisticaluncertaintyandthenannualized.Theuncertainty-discountedaverageannualhistoricalADestimatewillbeusedtoprojectfutureADovertheBVPanddevelopthejurisdictionalADbaselineforunplanneddeforestation.Developmentofwall-to-wallforest,landcoverorlandcoverchangemapsisnotarequirementforestimatingAD.However,wall-to-wallmapsfromanysourcemaybeusedtodevelopefficientstratifiedsamplingstrategiesforestimatinghistoricalAD.Anysamplingstrategythatisspatiallyrepresentativeofthejurisdictionandsupportedbycurrentbestpracticesmaybeusedaslongasitsuseassistsinproducingestimatesthatmeetaccuracyrequirements.Step1:DevelopaHistoricalLandCover/LandCoverChangeDatasetHistoricalADshouldbeestimatedusingasample-basedapproach.Thesample-basedmethodyieldsanestimateoftheareaofunplanneddeforestationfortheHRP,togetherwithanevaluationofstatisticaluncertainty,asexpressedbyconfidenceintervals.SOPsmustbedevelopedandemployedbythedatadeveloperandmustinclude,ataminimum,sampledesign,responsedesignanddatasources,datacollectionanddataanalysis.TheSOPsshouldalsoincludedetailedguidanceonqualitymanagementduringallthesestepsandshouldbeannexedtotheADBaselineAllocationReport.JurisdictionalSamplingFrameandAreasofIdentifiedExclusionsADsamplingmustbecarriedoutovertheentirejurisdiction,exceptforareasdeterminedtobe“identifiedexclusions.”Table11liststhecategoriesofidentifiedexclusionsandtheconditionsunderwhichtheymustbemapped.Locationsofirrefutablyidentifiedandboundedexclusionsmustbespatiallydelineatedandexcludedfromthejurisdictionalsamplingframe.23Forafullertreatmentofbestpracticesregardingplot-basedADdevelopment,seeSection4.2ofGFOI(2020).98VMD0055,v1.0Table11:DescriptionofmapsofidentifiedexclusionsDataProductDescriptionofIdentifiedRequirementforProducingDataProductExclusionsMapofIdentifiedCoastalorriverineareassubjecttoRequiredwhere1000haofmangroveforestsExclusion-IntertidalregularinundationbytidesareknowntoexistinthejurisdictionZoneOptionalinallothercasesMapofIdentifiedForestsmeetingallofthefollowingRequiredwherecommercialplantationslargerExclusion–conditions:than1000haareknowntoexistintheCommercialjurisdictionPlantations1)CurrentlymanagedprimarilyOptionalinallothercaseswiththeobjectivetoearnMapofIdentifiedrevenuethroughtimberRequiredwherebothofthefollowingconditionsExclusion–Naturalharvesting;aremet:Disturbances2)Harvestingpracticesinvolve1)Anindividualnaturaldisturbanceisknownclearcuts,patchcuts,seedtohaveresultedinmorethan1000haoftrees,continuousthinning,deforestation;andgroupselectionorrelatedpractices;and2)Itispossibletospatiallydelineatedeforestationattributabletoanatural3)Woodisharvestedtosupplydisturbancefromotherpotentialcausesofcommercialmarkets.24deforestationwithhighconfidenceusingavailabledatasets.DeforestationduringtheHRPcausedbyknowninfrequent,large-Optionalinallothercasesscalenaturaldisturbance24Commercialmarketsherearedefinedassaleofproductstoendusersandpublicandprivatecompanieswithsalesconducteddistant(morethan50km)fromtheUDefPA.99VMD0055,v1.0DataProductDescriptionofIdentifiedRequirementforProducingDataProductExclusionsMapofIdentifiedDeforestationduringtheHRPRequiredwherebothofthefollowingconditionsExclusion–Plannedcausedbylarge-scaleinfrastructurearemet:Infrastructureprojects1)Anindividualinfrastructureprojectisknowntohaveresultedinmorethan1000haofdeforestation;and2)Itispossibletospatiallydelineatedeforestationattributabletoaninfrastructureprojectfromotherpotentialcausesofdeforestationwithhighconfidenceusingavailabledatasets.OptionalinallothercasesMapofIdentifiedDeforestationduringtheHRPRequiredwherebothofthefollowingconditionsExclusion–Plannedcausedbylarge-scaleplannedaremet:Deforestationdeforestationclearedbyasingleagent1)Anindividualplanneddeforestationactivityisknowntohaveresultedinmorethan1000haofdeforestationclearedbyasingleagent;and2)AllotherVCSdefinitionsforplanneddeforestationaremet.OptionalinallothercasesMapofIdentifiedPermanentbodiesofwaterOptionalinallcasesExclusion–WaterincapableofsustainingforestsThespatiallydelineatedareasexcludedfromsamplingwithinthejurisdiction(andexcludedfromanyrequired10kmbuffer)mustbeprovidedasaseriesofidentifiedexclusionmaps.Theentireareaofthejurisdictioninhectares,including“identifiedexclusions,”istermedAJ.ADsamplingmustonlybeundertakenwithinareasnotidentifiedasexcluded.Theremainingareaofthejurisdictiononceidentifiedexclusionshavebeenremovedistermedthejurisdictionalsamplingframe.Figure6Error!Referencesourcenotfound.illustratestheprocessofdevelopingthejurisdictionalsamplingframe.Thepurposeofthisstepisnottoexhaustivelyidentifyallcasesofallowablecategoriesforexclusionbutrathertolimitsampleeffortandimprovetheaccuracyofthesample-basedADestimates.Themapsofidentifiedexclusionsarealsousedtoreclassifyapparentdeforestation,asisfurtherdescribedinSectionA1.4.3Step1.Theexcludedareasareassignedadeforestationriskcategoryofzeroincertaincircumstances,asdescribedinSectionA1.4.3Step2.100VMD0055,v1.0Figure6:ConceptualillustrationofthedevelopmentofidentifiedexclusionareamapsandjurisdictionalsamplingframeSampleDesignThesamplingdesignmustensurethatsampleplotsaredistributedacrosstheentirejurisdictionalsamplingframe,yieldingarepresentativesampleofthelandscapeconsideringspatialpatternsofdeforestation.Samplingdesignsmaybesystematic,random,stratifiedrandomsamplingoranyotherdesignsupportedbycurrentbestpractices.Thesamplingstrategymethodshouldensurethattheuncertainty(definedasahalf-widthofthe90percentconfidenceinterval)ofthefinalestimateofdeforestationiswithin±10percentoftheestimateofthemean,otherwisetheestimateissubjecttoaconservativediscounting.Anyrelevantspatialcriterionmaybeemployedtostratifythejurisdictionalsamplingframe,includingobservedlandcoverchangeinanancillarywall-to-wallmap,areasofhypothesizedhighversuslowriskofdeforestationoranyothercriterionthatassistsinlimitinginterpretationefforttomeettheuncertaintytargetsoftheestimatedAD.Whereastratifiedsamplingdesignisnotemployed,theentirejurisdictionalsamplingframemustbeconsideredtoconstituteasinglesamplingstratum.Areasexcludedfromthejurisdictionalsamplingframe(areasmappedasidentifiedexclusions)mustnotbeincludedinanysamplingstratumnorbeincorporatedinthecalculationsofarea(inhectares)ofanysamplingstratum.ResponseDesignCollectedsampledataareusedtoidentifylandcoverconditionsatthestartdateandenddateoftheHRPwithinthejurisdictionspatialboundaryandtoassignachange(deforestationorforestregrowth)ornochange(stableforestorstablenon-forest)resulttoeachobservation.Whereevidenceexistsofintermediarylandcover25changesoccurringbetweenthestartandenddatesoftheHRP,such25Theterm“landcover”hereencompassesbothlandcoverandlanduse.101VMD0055,v1.0evidenceshouldbeusedtoinformtheclassificationofasampleunit.OnlyoneresultmaybeidentifiedperlocationperHRP.RulesfordeterminingtheevidenceandinterpretationguidancethatshouldbeemployedmustbedescribedintheSOPforimageinterpretationandmayrelyonacombinationofimagery,secondaryremotesensingdataandancillaryspatialornon-spatialdata.Foreachsampleunitwherechangeisobserved,thedateonwhichchangeisobservedmustbeidentifiedandrecordedusingthesatelliteimagerytimeseries.DataSourcesSampledataaredevelopedthroughtheinterpretationofatimeseriesofhigh-resolutionimageryspanningaperiodwithin±365daysofthestartandenddatesoftheHRP.Fortheprimaryimagerydataset,aspatialresolutionof10morfinermustbeusedforalltimeperiods.Wheresuitable/usableimagesarenotavailable,thetimeseriesmaybesupplementedwithimageryfromawidertimerangetohelpinterpretobservations.Mapsmaybeemployedinthedesignofefficientsamplingstrategies.Otherdatasources,suchasairborneandspaceborneactiveandpassiveremotesensing,andgroundobservation,mayalsobeusedtosupplementtheinterpreters’observationofhigh-resolutionimagery.Imageryshouldbeorthorectifiedtominimizetheeffectofspatialerrorbetweenimagesfromdifferentacquisitiondatesorterraindistortions.DataCollectionVisualinterpretationisusedtoassigneachsampleunittoachangeornon-changeclassification.Whereastratifiedsamplingdesignisemployed,eachsampleplotobservationisrecordedwithreferencetothesamplingstratuminwhichthesampleplotislocated.DetailedproceduresforqualitymanagementduringtheinterpretationprocessmustbeformulatedanddescribedintheStandardOperatingProceduresforSamplePlotInterpretation.Typically,theseprocedureswillincludecross-validationamonginterpreters,atleastforasubsetofsampleunitsassessedbyallinterpreters,andrulesfordealingwithdisagreementsonclassidentificationbetweenanalysts.SuchSOPswillvarybyjurisdictionandADcollectioninstancebutmustinclude:1)Sampleplotdesignandspatialplotallocationtothesamplingframe;2)Datasourcingandpre-processing;3)Visualinterpretationofforestandnon-forestlandcovers;4)Recordingdatesofimagerycollection;5)Descriptionofthejurisdiction-specificcharacteristicsoflarge-scaleplanneddeforestation,andassociatedinterpretationguidance;102VMD0055,v1.06)Guidanceforassessingwhetherobserveddeforestationislikelytohaveoccurredonlandalreadyinanestablishedmanagementsysteminvolvingclearingandreplantingoftreesonashort(lessthan10years)cycle;7)Minimumqualificationsofanalysts,includingfamiliaritywithjurisdiction-specificlandcoverinterpretation;and8)Cross-checksamonganalysts,recordingofanalystcertaintyaroundeachplotinterpretationandrulesforresolvingdisagreements.Wheredeforestationisobservedinplots,assesswhetherthedeforestationmeetseitherofthefollowingtwoconditions:a)Likelyoccurredonlandalreadyinanestablishedmanagementsysteminvolvingclearingandreplantingoftreesonashort(lessthan10years)cycle.i)Wherethedeforestationeventlikelymeetsthecriteriaforidentifiedexclusion–commercialplantation,itshouldbedelineatedandaddedtothemapofidentifiedexclusions.Suchplotsareeliminatedfromthesamplingdesign.ii)Wherethedeforestationeventdoesnotmeetthecriteriaforidentifiedexclusion–commercialplantation,theplotshouldbeconsiderednon-forestatthestartoftheHRPandtheassociatedchangecategoryforthatplotrecordedaccordingly.Examplesoflandusecategoriesthatmaymeetthiscondition,dependingonthecontextofajurisdiction,includebutarenotlimitedtosmallholderwoodlots,agroforestry,treecropsandagriculturalfallows.b)Occurredaspartofalarge-scaledeforestationevent.Wherethedeforestationobservationislocatedwithinalargerdeforestationeventof100contiguoushectaresormore,andwherethatdeforestationeventappearslikelytobebyasingleagent(asopposedtoanaggregationofmanysmall-scaleagents),theanalystmustmakethefollowingdetermination:i)Wherethedeforestationeventisunambiguouslylarge-scaleplanneddeforestation(unambiguouslymeetingtheVCSdefinitionofplanneddeforestationandexceeding100contiguoushectares26),itshouldbespatiallydelineatedandaddedtothemapofidentifiedexclusions(identifiedexclusion–planneddeforestationoridentifiedexclusion–plannedinfrastructure).Suchplotsareeliminatedfromthesamplingdesign.ii)Wherethedeforestationeventdoesnotunambiguouslymeetthedefinitionofplanneddeforestation,theplotobservationshouldberecordedaschangecategorydeforestation.Anadditionalrecordmustbemadeforsuchplotsidentifyingthemas“large-scaledeforestation.”26Toguidethisstep,adescriptionofthejurisdiction-specificcharacteristicsofplanneddeforestationmustbedevelopedanddocumentedintheSOPforSamplePlotInterpretation.Theanalystshouldconsiderthelocalcontextandapplyajurisdiction-specificdecisiontreeforidentifyingplannedandunplanneddeforestation.103VMD0055,v1.0DataAnalysisThesample-basedapproachproducescountsofobservationsofsampleunitswithineachsamplingstratum.SuchsampleunitcountsaredenominatedasCountJCHC,ssforthechangecategories(CHC)ofdeforestation,regrowth,stableforestandstablenon-forestintheSSsamplingstrata.ThecountsofclassifiedsampleunitsmustbesummarizedfollowingtheformatinTable12.Table12:Formatforrecordingplotobservations,withreferencetoassociatedparameternamesChangeCategories(CHC)DeforestationStableForestStableNon-ForestRegrowthssTotalSamplingss=1CountJdeforestation,ss=1CountJstable-forest,ss=1……CountJss=1Stratumss=2CountJdeforestation,ss=2CountJstable-forest,ss=2…ss=3CountJdeforestation,ss=3CountJstable-forest,ss=3……CountJss=2(SS)…CountJss=SSTotalsCountJdeforestationCountJstable-forest[tabletotal]CHCtotalsCountJdeforestationCountJstableforest……CountJParametersforstablenon-forestandforestregrowthfollowthepatternofdeforestationinTable12butareomittedforspace.ThecountofsampleunitobservationsmadeineachsamplingstratumssisdenotedasCountJss.Samplingstratumweightswsssmustbecalculatedforthe1,2,3,…,SSstratabydividingthemappedareaofeachsamplingstratum(AJss)bythetotalareaofthejurisdiction(AJ).Becausesamplingstrataareonlydefinedforthesamplingframe,AJssshouldnotincludeanyareasfromthejurisdictionwithanidentifiedexclusion(Table13).Table13:CalculationofsamplestratumweightsStratumweight(ratio)Samplingstratum(ss)Samplingstratumarea(hectares)Stratum1AJss=1wsss=1=AJss=1/AJStratum2AJss=2wsss=2=AJss=2/AJStratumSSAJss=SSwsss=SS=AJss=SS/AJSamplestrataweights(wsss)sumtooneminusthefractionofthejurisdictioncoveredbyidentifiedexclusions.104VMD0055,v1.0Thecountsofsampleunitsobservedwithineachsamplingstratum(CountJss),countsofsampleunitsclassifiedasdeforestation,stableforest,stablenon-forestandregrowth(CountJUDef,ss,CountJSF,ss,CountJSNF,ss,CountJReg,ss)andthestrataweights(wsss)areusedtoestimatetheproportionofthejurisdictionclassifiedasdeforestation,stableforest,stablenon-forestandregrowth(PropJUDef,ss,PropJSF,ss,PropJSNF,ss,PropJReg,ss).Foreachstratumweight,areaproportionsmustbecalculatedbymultiplyingbythestratumweightanddividingbythetotalcountfortherespectivestratum,asfollows:𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝐽𝐶𝐻𝐶,𝑠𝑠=𝑤𝑠𝑠𝑠×𝐶𝑜𝐶𝑢𝑜𝑛𝑢𝑡𝑛𝐽𝐶𝑡𝐻𝐽𝑠𝐶𝑠,𝑠𝑠(53)Where:PropJCHC,ss=WeightedproportionofAJthatfallsintosamplingstratumssandisclassifiedaschangecategoryCHC(dimensionless)wsss=Weightofsamplingstratumss(dimensionless)CountJCHC,ss=TotalcountofsampleunitsthatfallintosamplingstratumssandchangecategoryCHC(sampleunits)CountJss=Totalcountofsampleunitsinstratumss(sampleunits)CHC=Changecategory:unplanneddeforestation(UDef),stableforest(SF),stablenon-forest(SNF),regrowth(Reg)ss=1,2,3,…,SSsamplingstratumTheresultingproportionsmustbesummarizedasillustratedinTable14.Table14:Formatforrecordingestimatedjurisdictionalproportions,withreferencetoassociatedparameternamesChangeCategories(CHC)Strata(ss)ChangeCategory1ChangeCategory2ChangeStratumtotalStratum1(e.g.,deforestation)(e.g.,stableforest)Categorywsss=1Stratum2wsss=2StratumSSPropJCHC=1,ss=1PropJCHC=2,ss=1…wsss=SSCHCtotalPropJCHC=1,ss=2PropJCHC=2,ss=2…PropJCHC=1,ss=SSPropJCHC=2,ss=SS…PropJCHC=1PropJCHC=2…Parametersforstablenon-forestandforestregrowthfollowthepatternofdeforestationandstableforestinTable14,butareomittedforspace.105VMD0055,v1.0Step2:CalculatetheTotalHistoricalAreaofEachChangeCategoryEstimatetheareawithinthejurisdictionclassifiedineachchangecategoryusingthecolumntotalsfortheproportionsestimatedinTable14,summingacrosssamplingstrataandchangecategoriesasfollows:𝑆𝑆𝐴𝐽𝐶𝐻𝐶=∑𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝐽𝐶𝐻𝐶,𝑠𝑠×𝐴𝐽(54)𝑠𝑠=1Where:AJCHC=AreaofthejurisdictionclassifiedaschangecategoryCHC27overtheHRP(ha)WeightedproportionofAJthatfallsintosamplingstratumssandisclassifiedasPropJCHC,ss=changecategoryCHC(dimensionless)Areaofthejurisdiction(ha)AJ=Changecategory:unplanneddeforestation(UDef),stableforest(SF),stablenon-forest(SNF),regrowth(Reg)CHC=1,2,3,…,SSsamplingstratumss=Aconservativediscountshouldbeappliedtotheestimatedareasofhistoricaldeforestationbasedontheirassesseduncertainty(seeSteps3–4below).Step3:CalculatetheUncertaintyofEstimatedHistoricalAreasofEachChangeCategoryCalculatethestandarderroroftheproportionsandareas:√𝑆𝑆𝑤𝑠𝑠𝑠2×𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝐽𝐶𝐻𝐶,𝑠𝑠×(1−𝐶𝑜𝐶𝑢𝑜𝑛𝑢𝑡𝑛𝐽𝐶𝑡𝐻𝐽𝐶,𝑠𝑠)(55)𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝐽𝑆(𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝐽𝐶𝐻𝐶)=∑𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠=1𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝐽𝑠𝑠−1𝑆(𝐴𝐽𝐶𝐻𝐶)=𝑆(𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝐽𝐶𝐻𝐶)×𝐴𝐽𝐶𝐻𝐶(56)Where:S(PropJCHC)=StandarderroroftheproportionofAJinchangecategoryCHC(dimensionless)PropJCHC=ProportionofAJinchangecategoryCHC(dimensionless)27Representstheparameterassociatedwitheachchangecategoryi.e.,AJUDef,AJSF,AJSNFandAJReg106VMD0055,v1.0wsss=Weightofsamplingstratumss(dimensionless)CountJCHC,ss=TotalcountofsampleunitsthatfallintosamplingstratumssandchangecategoryCHC(sampleunits)CountJss=Totalcountofsampleunitsinstratumss(sampleunits)AJCHC=AreaofjurisdictionclassifiedaschangecategoryCHCovertheHRP(ha)S(AJCHC)=StandarderroroftheareawithchangecategoryCHC(ha)AJ=Areaofthejurisdiction(ha)CHC=Changecategory:unplanneddeforestation(UDef),stableforest(SF),stablenon-forest(SNF),regrowth(Reg)ss=1,2,3,…,SSsamplingstratumTheremainingstepsinthissection(A1.4.1)areshownforthechangecategory(CHC)ofunplanneddeforestation(UDef).AllremainingequationsexpressaUDefsubscriptinplaceofCHC,andmaybeunderstoodasCHC=UDef.Calculatethepercentageuncertaintyoftheestimatedarea.Thepercentageuncertaintyisdefinedasthehalf-widthofthetwo-sided90percentconfidenceinterval,expressedasapercentageoftheestimatedarea.𝑆(𝐴𝐽𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓)𝑈%(𝐴𝐽𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓)=𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑝ℎ𝑎=10%×𝐴𝐽𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓×100%(57)Where:U%(AJUDef)=Percentageuncertaintyoftheestimatedareaofunplanneddeforestation(whereCHC=UDef)withinthejurisdictionovertheHRP(%)S(AJUDef)=Standarderroroftheestimatedareaofunplanneddeforestation(whereCHC=UDef)withinthejurisdictionovertheHRP(ha)AJUDef=Undiscountedareaofchangecategory(CHC)unplanneddeforestationwithinthejurisdictionovertheHRP(ha)talpha=10%=Valueofthetdistributionforatwo-sided90percentconfidenceinterval(avalueof1.6449maybeusedforADanalyses)Step4:ConservativelyDiscounttheEstimatedAreaofHistoricalUnplannedDeforestationTheestimatedhistoricalareaofunplanneddeforestationisdiscountedbasedonitsuncertaintylevel.Wherethepercentageuncertaintyoftheestimatedtransitionareaislessthanorequalto10percent,theestimateisusedwithoutmodificationandthediscountfactoriszero.Estimateswithuncertaintylevelsabove20percentarenotadmissible.Wherethepercentageuncertaintyisbetween10percentand20percent,theareaestimatemustbescaleddownbydiscountfactorDF.107VMD0055,v1.0ThediscountfactorDFiscalculatedasfollows:𝑈%(𝐴𝐽𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓)(58)𝐷𝐹𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓=100×𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑝ℎ𝑎=10%×𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑝ℎ𝑎=66.67%Where:DFUDef=Discountfactorforunplanneddeforestation(%)U%(AJUDef)=Percentageuncertaintyoftheestimatedareaofunplanneddeforestation(whereCHC=UDef)withinthejurisdictionovertheHRP(%)talpha=10%=Valueofthetdistributionforatwo-sided90percentconfidenceinterval(avalue1.6449maybeusedforADanalyses)talpha=66.67%=Valueofthetdistributionforaone-sided66.67%confidenceinterval(avalueof0.4307maybeusedforADanalyses)Usingtheestimatedareaandthediscountfactors,calculatethefinalADvalues:𝐴𝐽𝑐𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓=𝐴𝐽𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓×(1−𝐷𝐹𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓)(59)Where:=AreaofunplanneddeforestationwithinthejurisdictionovertheHRP,AJcUDefconservativelydiscountedforuncertainty(ha)AJUDefDFUDef=Undiscountedareaofchangecategory(CHC)unplanneddeforestation(UDef)withinthejurisdictionovertheHRP(ha)=Discountfactorforunplanneddeforestation(%)A1.4.2DeterminetheJurisdictionalADforUnplannedDeforestationAreasofchangeareannualizedbydividingtheareaexperiencingchangebythenumberofyearselapsedfromthestarttotheenddateoftheHRP.ThetimespanbetweenthestartandendoftheHRPmustbebasedontheaverageacquisitiondatesoftheimagesusedtogenerateobservations(ordatesoffieldobservations)andmustbeconsistentwiththestartandenddatereportedintheADBaselineAllocationReport.AlignmentbetweentheBVPandtheHRPisensuredasfollows:1)TheHRPenddate(HRPend)mustdifferbynomorethanoneyearfromthestartdateoftheBVP;or2)ThehistoricalperiodcalculatedasthedifferencebetweenHRPstartandHRPendmustnotbeshorterorlongerthanhalfayear(i.e.,±6months)fromthenominallengthoftheHRP.108VMD0055,v1.0Whereitisnotpossibletomeeteitheroftheseconditionsduetodataavailability,Verramustdeterminewhichcriterionwillbemodified.𝑆𝑆∑𝑆𝑠=1𝑡𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡,𝑠𝑠,𝑠(60)𝐻𝑅𝑃𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡=∑(𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝐽𝑠𝑠×𝑤𝑠𝑠𝑠)𝑠𝑠=1𝑆𝑆∑𝑆𝑠=1𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑑,𝑠𝑠,𝑠(61)𝐻𝑅𝑃𝑒𝑛𝑑=∑(𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝐽𝑠𝑠×𝑤𝑠𝑠𝑠)𝑠𝑠=1Where:=Area-weightedaveragedateofimageryusedforinterpretationofsampleplotsattheHRPstartstartoftheHRP(decimalyear)HRPend=Area-weightedaveragedateofimageryusedforinterpretationofsampleplotsattheendoftheHRP(decimalyear)tstart,ss,s=AcquisitiondateofimageforsamplesinsamplingstratumssatstartoftheHRPtend,ss,s(decimalyear)CountJss=AcquisitiondateofimageforsamplesinsamplingstratumssatendoftheHRPwsss(decimalyear)sss=Totalcountofsampleunitsinstratumss(sampleunits)=Weightofsamplingstratumss(dimensionless)=1,2,3,…,SSsamplingstratum=1,2,3,…,SsampleunitTheestimatedareaofunplanneddeforestationinthejurisdiction,conservativelydiscountedforuncertainty,isannualizedbydividingbythenumberofyearselapsedfromthestarttotheenddateoftheHRP:𝐴𝐽𝑐𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑧𝑒𝑑𝐴𝐽𝑐𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓=𝐻𝑅𝑃𝑒𝑛𝑑−𝐻𝑅𝑃𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡(62)Where:=AverageannualareaofunplanneddeforestationwithinthejurisdictionovertheAnnualizedHRP,conservativelydiscountedforuncertainty(ha)AJcUDefAJcUDef=AreaofunplanneddeforestationwithinthejurisdictionovertheHRP,conservativelydiscountedforuncertainty(ha)HRPend=Area-weightedaveragedateofimageryusedforinterpretationofsampleplotsattheendoftheHRP(decimalyear)109VMD0055,v1.0HRPstart=Area-weightedaveragedateofimageryusedforinterpretationofsampleplotsatthestartoftheHRP(decimalyear)A1.4.3AllocateJurisdictionalBaselineADforUnplannedDeforestationtoPAandLBTheannualizedjurisdictionalADisspatiallydistributedacrossthejurisdiction(including10kmbufferwhererequired)accordingtotheriskofdeforestationsothatareasofhighriskreceiveahigherallocationthanareasoflowrisk.Therefore,adeforestationriskmapmustbeconstructedbyapplyingtheUDef-AT.ThisprocedurerequiresanFCBMasinput.OncethedeforestationriskmapisconstructedandtheADisdetermined,UDef-ATisusedtoallocateportionsofthejurisdictionalADtotheUDefPAandUDefLBaccordingtotheriskclasseswithintheseareas.TheprojectdeveloperthendistributestheADportionsallocatedtoeachriskclassacrossforeststrataandmultipliestheperforeststratumADwiththecorrespondingaverageemissionfactorstocalculatetheemissionbaselineforunplanneddeforestationintheUDefPAandUDefLB.Thisentireprocesscomprisesthefollowingsteps,summarizedbelow.Step1isfullydescribedhere.Steps2–3aredescribed,butrequireapplicationoftheUDef-AT.Steps4–7arelistedhereforreference,butarefullydescribedinSection5.3.3;theyarecompletedbytheprojectproponent.UndertakenbyVerra:Step1.CreateajurisdictionalFCBMfortheHRP.Step2.UsingtheUDef-AT,stratifytheareasofstableforestthatexistattheenddateoftheHRPintocategoricalriskclasses.Step3.UsingtheUDef-AT,allocateportionsofthejurisdictionalADbaselineforagivenBVPtotheriskclassesthatexistintheareasofstableforestintheUDefPAandUDefLB.Undertakenbyprojectproponent:Step4.StratifytheareaofstableforestattheendoftheHRPintheUDefPAandUDefLBbyproject-developedforeststrata(seeSection5.3.2.1).Step5.DistributetheADfortheBVPallocatedtoeachriskclassacrossforeststrataproportionallytotheirareawithintheUDefPAandUDefLB(seeSection5.3.2.2).Step6.EstimateaverageemissionfactorsperforeststratumwithintheUDefPAandUDefLB(seeSection5.3.2.3,Steps1–5).Step7.DeterminethebaselineforunplanneddeforestationintheUDefPAandUDefLBbymultiplyingtheallocatedportionsoftheADwithintheBVPperforeststratumbytheircorrespondingemissionfactors(seeSection5.3.2.3,Step6andSection5.3.2.5).110VMD0055,v1.0Step1:ConstructJurisdictionalForestCoverBenchmarkMapConductJurisdictionalMappingVerrawillconstructajurisdictionalrasterFCBMcoveringthejurisdictionalarea,plusabufferofatleast10kmoutsidetheboundaryofthejurisdiction(excludingareasoutsideofthenationalbordersandareasmappedasidentifiedexclusions),whichisneededforusingUDef-AT.Thespatialresolutionoftherasterfilemustbeconsistentwiththeminimumareathresholdoftheforestdefinition.TheFCBMisasinglemapthatisconstructedbyfirstmappingthepresenceorabsenceofforestsatthestart,mid-pointandendoftheHRP,resultingintheeightuniquecombinationsorforesttransitionslistedinTable15.Fortheprimaryimagerydataset,aspatialresolutionof30morfinermustbeusedforalltimeperiods.Theeighttransitionsaresummarizedintofoursimplifiedcategories(stablenon-forest,stableforest,deforestationinthefirsthalfoftheHRPanddeforestationinthesecondhalfoftheHRP)forusewiththeUDef-ATasfollows:•Areasmappedasnon-forestatthestartoftheHRPareconsideredstablenon-forest,regardlessofsubsequentlandcover.•Areasmappedasforestforallthreeperiodsareconsideredasstableforest.•AreasmappedasforestatthestartoftheHRPandnon-forestatthemidpointoftheHRPareconsidereddeforestedinthefirsthalfoftheHRP,regardlessofsubsequentlandcover.•AreasmappedasforestatthestartandmidpointoftheHRPandnon-forestattheendoftheHRPareconsidereddeforestedinthesecondhalfoftheHRP.Table15:InterpretationofFCBMintosimplifiedclassesforuseinUDef-ATHRPStartHRPHRPEndForestInterpretedClassKeyforUseinUDef-ATYearMidpointYearTransitionClassesforUseForestForestForestValuesinUDef-ATNoNoNo11Stablenon-forestNoNoYes21Stablenon-forestNoYesNo31Stablenon-forestNoYesYes41Stablenon-forestStableforestYesYesYes52DeforestedinfirsthalfofHRPYesNoNo63YesNoYes73DeforestedinfirsthalfofHRPDeforestedinsecondhalfofHRPYesYesNo84111VMD0055,v1.0AccuracyAssessmentoftheJurisdictionalFCBMTheaccuracyofareasofthejurisdictionalFCBM(FCBMj)mustbeassessedbycomparisonagainstsample-basedobservations.Theassessmentincludesuser’sandproducer’saccuracies,understoodasfollows:•User’saccuracy:Foramappedclass,theestimatedproportionofthemappedclass’sareathatcorrectlydepictsactuallandcoverorlanduse.•Producer’saccuracy:Foranactuallandcoverorlanduseclass,theestimatedproportionofthatlandcoverorlanduseclass’sareathatisassignedthecorrectmappedclass.Twocomponentsofaccuracymustbeassessed:1)DeforestationbetweenthestartandendoftheHRP:theuser’sandproducer’saccuraciesmusteachbe70percentorgreaterforareasmappedasdeforestationovertheHRP.2)ForestattheendoftheHRP:user’sandproducer’saccuraciesmusteachbegreaterthan90percentforareasmappedasforestattheendoftheHRP.Whereitisdemonstratedthat50percentormoreoftheforestareaofthejurisdictionhasacanopycoveroflessthan50percent,thefollowingaccuracystandardsmaybeapplied:a)DeforestationbetweenthestartandendoftheHRP:theuser’sandproducer’saccuraciesmusteachbe60percentorgreaterforareasmappedasdeforestationovertheHRP.b)ForestattheendoftheHRP:user’sandproducer’saccuraciesmusteachbegreaterthan80percentforareasmappedasforestattheendoftheHRP.TheeightforesttransitionvaluesaresummarizedasthreesimplifiedcategoriesforFCBMaccuracyassessments:(1)non-forestattheendoftheHRP,(2)forestattheendoftheHRPand(3)deforestedwithintheHRP(Table16).Table16:InterpretationofFCBMintosimplifiedclassesforaccuracyassessmentHRPStartHRPHRPEndForestInterpretedClassesClassKeyforFCBMAccuracyYearMidpointYearTransitionforAccuracyAssessmentForestForestForestValuesAssessmentNoNoNo11Non-forestatendofHRPNoNoYes22ForestatendofHRPNon-forestremainingnon-forestNoYesNo31NoYesYes42ForestatendofHRPYesYesYes52ForestatendofHRP112VMD0055,v1.0HRPStartHRPHRPEndForestInterpretedClassesClassKeyforFCBMAccuracyYearMidpointYearTransitionforAccuracyAssessmentForestForestForestValuesAssessmentYesNoNo63DeforestedwithinHRPYesNoYes73DeforestedwithinHRPYesYesNo83DeforestedwithinHRPAccuracyassessmentobservationsmustfollowthesameprotocolforimageryinterpretationusedinADdevelopment.Toassesstheaccuracyofthetwomainclasses(areaofdeforestationovertheHRPandareaofforestatendoftheHRP),aminimumof100sampleobservationsshouldbemadeofthetargetandnon-targetclasses(totalingaminimumof200observationsperestimate).ObservationsshouldbespatiallyrepresentativeoftheentireFCBM.Asingleobservationmaybeusedtoinformbothestimates.Thesample-basedobservationsusedforthisaccuracyassessmentincorporatesomeofthesampleobservationscollectedforADdevelopment.AdditionalsampleobservationsmaybetakentoensurethatmappedclassesreachtheminimumrequirednumberortoachievespatialrepresentativenessoftheFCBMj.WhereRelevant,IntegrateProjectFCBMsintoJurisdictionalFCBMsDuringthedevelopmentoftheFCBMj,allproponentsofprojectseithercurrentlyactiveorintheVCSpipelineandanticipatingvalidationwithintheBVPareallowedtosubmitproject-specificFCBM(FCBMp)encompassingtheUDefPAsandUDefLBsassociatedwiththesameperiodsforwhichthejurisdictionalFCBMisbeingdeveloped.ForeachFCBMpsubmission,thefollowingassessmentisundertaken:1)TheaccuracyofeachsubmittedFCBMpmustbeassessedusingthesameaccuracycriteriaandminimumsamplingsizeasthoseappliedtotheFCBMj,andusingthesameSOPforimageinterpretationusedtodevelopjurisdictionalAD.WherethemappedareaofdeforestationinanFCBMpisnotsufficientlylargetoaccommodate100samplepoints,thesamplesizemaybereducedsuchthatallsamplepointsaredelineatedwithoutoverlappingoneanother.2)Simultaneously,accuracyofthejurisdictionalFCBMwithinthespatialboundariesoftheFCBMpmustbeassessedusingthesamesample.3)WheretheFCBMpisshowntoprovidesubstantiallymoreaccurateestimatesofthetwomainclasses(areaofdeforestationovertheHRPandareaofforestattheendoftheHRP)thanthejurisdictionalFCBM,theFCBMpmustreplacetheportionsofthejurisdictionalFCBMwithwhichitintersects.“Substantiallymoreaccurate”isdefinedinthisassessmentasmeetingbothofthefollowingconditions:113VMD0055,v1.0a)Theaverageoftheuser’sandproducer’saccuraciesoftheforestareaattheendoftheHRP,ascalculatedfromtheFCBMp,isgreaterbyatleastfivepercentthanthesameaveragecalculatedfromthesamespatialextentofthejurisdictionalFCBM;andb)Theaverageoftheuser’sandproducer’saccuraciesoftheareaofdeforestationovertheHRP,ascalculatedfromtheFCBMp,isgreaterbyatleastfivepercentthanthesameaveragecalculatedfromthesamespatialextentofthejurisdictionalFCBM.Forexample,wherethejurisdictionalFCBM,whenassessedstrictlywithintheboundariesoftheFCBMp,isfoundtohaveaverageuser’sandproducer’saccuraciesof65percent,theFCBMpmustachieveaverageaccuraciesof70percentorgreatertobeincorporated.NotethattheFCBMpaccuraciesarenotcomparedtoaccuraciesfortheentirejurisdictionalFCBM,butonlytothoseareasofthejurisdictionalFCBMthatoverlapspatiallywiththeFCBMp.AnFCBMpmeetingconditionsa)andb)mustbeincorporateddirectlyintotheFCBMjbyreplacinganymappedvalueswiththosedepictedontheFCBMp.AnFCBMpfailingeitherconditiona)orb)mustnotbeincorporateddirectlyintothejurisdictionalFCBM.AfterallFCBMphavebeenassessedandanypotentialmodificationstothejurisdictionalFCBMhavebeenmade,theresultingmodifiedmapretainsthename“jurisdictionalFCBM.”ProjectswishingtosubmitFCBMpafterajurisdictionalFCBMhasbeenvalidatedmustwaituntilthecommencementofdatadevelopmentforthesubsequentBVP.ReassignADforAreaswithinIdentifiedExclusionsThefinaljurisdictionalFCBMissubjectedtoafinaladjustmenttoreassignspecificADthatfallwithinareasmappedasidentifiedexclusions.Anydeforestationinidentifiedexclusionareas(mappedasaforesttonon-foresttransition–interpretedclasses3and4inTable15)inthefinaljurisdictionalFCBMarereassignedtostablenon-forest.Thisreassignmentensuresthattheseforestclearingsarenotusedtoinformtheriskmodelingofunplanneddeforestation.ThereassignmentofclassesoftheFCBMisdepictedinTable17.114VMD0055,v1.0Table17:ReassignmentofFCBMclasspriortoapplicationwithinUDef-ATAreaIdentifiedIncludedinIncludeInterpretedClassesforUseinReassignmentofAssignedRiskClassMappedasExclusionJurisdictionalinRiskMapping(fromTable15)ClassforUseinRiskIdentifiedCategorySamplingFCBMMappingExclusionFrameYesActiveNoYes1–Stablenon-forest1–Stablenon-forestN/Acommercialplantations2–Stableforest2–StableforestZeroIntertidalzone3–DeforestedinfirsthalfofHRP1–Stablenon-forestN/A4–DeforestedinsecondhalfofHRPDeforestationNoYes3–DeforestedinfirsthalfofHRP1–Stablenon-forestN/Abyinfrequent,large-scale4–DeforestedinsecondhalfofHRPnaturaldisturbancesDeforestationbylarge-scaleinfrastructurePermanentNoYes1–Stablenon-forest1–Stablenon-forestN/AbodiesofwaterNoN/AYesYesPerTable15NoreassignmentAsmodeledbyUDef-AT115VMD0055,v1.0Step2:DevelopaJurisdictionalDeforestationRiskMapAjurisdictionaldeforestationriskmap–adigitalmapcoveringtheextentofthejurisdictionthatindicates,foreverylocationmappedasforest,therelativeriskofundergoingdeforestationduringtheBVP–mustbedevelopedbyemployingthelatestapprovedversionoftheUDef-ATandtheFCBMjresultingfromStep1.TheresultingriskmapassignsacategoricalriskclasstoeachlocationmappedasstableforestinthefinaljurisdictionalFCBMj.Theriskmapisthenfurtheradjustedbymodifyingtheriskcategoryassignedtoareasofstableforestthatfallwithinanidentifiedexclusionarea.Theseforestsshouldbeassignedazero-deforestationrisktoensurethatnoADisallocatedtoforeststhatarenoteligibleforavoidingunplanneddeforestationprojectsandwerenotsampledtogenerateUDefAD.Step3:AllocateProjectedADtoRiskClasseswithinUDefPAandUDefLBThelatestapprovedversionoftheUDef-ATmustbeusedtoallocateportionsoftheADovertheBVPtothePAsandLBsofallexistingVCSregisteredprojects,projectsintheVCSpipelineandanyotherplannedprojectsforwhichtheproponenthasappliedforabaselineADallocationforunplanneddeforestation.TheapplicationoftheUDef-ATwillrequirethefollowing:1)Digitalmapofjurisdictionalboundaries;2)FCBMs(FCBMj);3)DigitalmapsofPAsandLBs;and4)Jurisdictionaldeforestationriskmap.ADBaselineAllocationtoUDefPAsandUDefLBsApplicationoftheUDef-ATgeneratesatablecontainingtheADbaselineassociatedwitheachriskclassintersectingeachUDefPAandUDefLB.BaselineADallocationstoUDefPAandUDefLBaretermedADPA,UDef,pr,randADLB,UDef,pr,r.Where:ADPA,UDef,pr,r=PortionofthejurisdictionalUDefADbaselineallocatedtotheUDefPAofprojectprinriskclassr(ha)ADLB,UDef,pr,r=PortionofthejurisdictionalUDefADbaselineallocatedtotheUDefLBofprojectprinriskclassr(ha)pr=1,2,3,…,PRavoidingunplanneddeforestationprojectsrequestingallocationofaportionofthejurisdictionalUDefADr=1,2,3,…,RriskclassUDefLBsmustnotextendbeyondnationalboundaries.116VMD0055,v1.0WhereaportionofaUDefLBextendsbeyondtheboundaryofthejurisdictionintoanotherpartofthecountry,ADareallocatedtothatportionoftheUDefLBasfollows.•WheretheportionoftheUDefLBoutsideofthejurisdictionfallsintoaseparateVCSavoidingunplanneddeforestationjurisdictionfromthattowhichtheassociatedprojectbelongs,thatportionreceivesitsADallocationfromtheadjoiningjurisdiction’smostrecentjurisdictionaldeforestationriskmapandAD.WheretheadjoiningVCSavoidingunplanneddeforestationjurisdiction’sBVPendspriortotheendoftheprojectjurisdiction’sBVP,ADisallocateduntiltheendoftheprojectjurisdiction’sassociatedBVPbyassumingthattheannualizedADallocationfortheremainingyearsoftheadjoiningjurisdiction’sBVPcontinuesuntiltheendoftheprojectjurisdiction’sBVP.•WheretheportionoftheUDefLBoutsideofthejurisdictiondoesnotfallintoaseparateVCSavoidingunplanneddeforestationjurisdiction,thenaseparateriskclass-“extra-jurisdictional”exJ-isdefinedtoencompassthisportion.ADallocationiscalculatedasfollows:𝐴𝐿𝐵,𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑝𝑟,𝑟=𝑒𝑥𝐽𝑅𝐴𝐷𝐿𝐵,𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑝𝑟,𝑟=𝑒𝑥𝐽=𝐴𝐿𝐵,𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑝𝑟−𝐴𝐿𝐵,𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑝𝑟,𝑟=𝑒𝑥𝐽×∑𝐴𝐷𝐿𝐵,𝑈𝐷𝑒𝑓,𝑝𝑟,𝑟(63)𝑟=1Where:ADLB,UDef,pr,r=exJ=UDefADbaselineallocatedtoUDefLBofprojectprinriskclassexJ(ha)ALB,UDef,pr=AreaoftheUDefLBofprojectpr(ha)ALB,UDef,pr,r=exJ=AreaoftheUDefLBofprojectprinriskclassexJ(ha)ALB,UDef,pr,r=PortionofthejurisdictionalUDefADbaselineallocatedtotheUDefLBofprojectprinriskclassr(ha)pr=1,2,3,…,PRavoidingunplanneddeforestationprojectsrequestingallocationofaportionofthejurisdictionalUDefADr=1,2,3,…,RriskclassDeliveryofDatatoProjectProponentsinADBaselineAllocationReportADwillbeprovidedtoprojectproponentsbyVerraasapartoftheADBaselineAllocationReport,including:1)TablecontainingthetotalADallocationtoeachriskclassfortheUDefPAandUDefLBovertheBVP;2)JurisdictionalFCBM;and3)Thejurisdictionaldeforestationriskmap.117VMD0055,v1.0TheADvaluescontainedintheproject-specifictablesareassignedtheparameternamesADPA-UDef,randADLB-UDef,rWhere:ADPA-UDef,r=UDefADallocatedtotheUDefPAinriskclassr(ha)UDefADallocatedtotheUDefLBinriskclassr(ha)ADLB-UDef,r=1,2,3,…,Rriskclassr=A1.5UpdatingtheADBaselineAllocationReportTheADBaselineAllocationReportmustbeupdatedandrevalidatedpriortothestartdateofeachsubsequentBVP.EachupdatedADBaselineAllocationReportwillrepresentanewBVP.Wherecompatiblewiththemostrecentversionofthismodule,theupdatedADBaselineAllocationReportmustemploythesamemethodsasthoseusedintheinitialADBaselineAllocationReport,updatedwhereneeded(e.g.,toenabletheuseofnewsatellitedatasources).118VMD0055,v1.0APPENDIX2:DEVELOPMENTOFJURISDICTIONALDATAONACTIVITYSHIFTINGBYGEOGRAPHICALLYMOBILEAGENTSFORPROJECTLEAKAGEESTIMATESNote–theseactivitiesareundertakenbyVerraatthestartofeachBVP.VerrawillestimateemissionsfromdeforestationoutsidetheUDefLBusingasingleemissionfactorencompassingalllandsavailableforconversiontoagriculturallandusewithinthenationalextent.Thisemissionfactorisapproximatedusingarea-weightedcarbonstocksofalllandsinthenationalextent,forestedandnon-forested,thatareassessedtobeallofthefollowing:a)Physicallyaccessibletogeographicallymobiledeforestationagents;b)Suitableforagriculture;andc)Unprotected.Thefollowinggeneralstepsaredescribedinthissection.1)Spatiallydelineatealllandsinthenationalextentthatarephysicallyaccessibletoagents,suitableforagricultureandunprotected.2)Developanarea-weightedemissionfactorforactivityshiftingtooutsidetheUDefLB.A2.1Step1:SpatiallyDelineateLandAvailableforActivityShiftingOutsidetheUDefPAandUDefLBTheareaofforestandnon-forestlandwithinthejurisdictionalboundariesthatisavailableforleakageduetogeographicallymobileactorsisdeterminedbythespatialdistributionofthefollowingfactors:1)Suitabilityoflandforagriculture;2)Physicalaccessibility;and3)Relativeprotectionstatus.Jurisdictionalmapsportrayingeachofthesethreefactorsmustbeconstructed.119VMD0055,v1.0SuitabilityofLandforAgricultureUsingpeer-reviewedandaccuracy-assessedmap-basedsources,delineatetheareaofpotentiallyarablelandasfollows.Landscurrentlymanagedunderagriculturalcropproductionmustbeexcluded.Alltemperateandtropicalnaturalforestsareconsideredpotentiallyarableexcludingallareaswithaslopeinexcessof10percentaswellasforestsonserpentineandfloodedsoils.Othernaturalvegetationtypessuchasgrassland,shrubland,savanna,bushlandandwetlandsshouldalsobeconsideredpotentiallyarable.Areasofnaturalvegetationthatareunsupportiveofagricultureduetoreasonssuchasinsufficientprecipitationshouldbeexcludedfromtheestimationofpotentiallyarablenon-forestland.Aminimumthresholdofmeanannualprecipitationforrain-fedagricultureinthejurisdictionshouldbeestablishedandamapofmeanannualprecipitationshouldbeusedtoconductthisanalysis.Theoutputofthisanalysisisadigitalmapofpotentiallyarablelandwithalllandsindicatedtobeeither“potentiallyarable”or“notpotentiallyarable.”PhysicalAccessibilityPotentiallyarablelandmustbephysicallyaccessibletotransportationnetworkstobeeligibleforleakageduetogeographicallymobileactors.Physicallyaccessiblelandisdefinedhereasallpotentiallyarablelandwithin10kmofanexistingroad.Theoutputofthisanalysisisadigitalmapofphysicallyaccessiblelandwithalllandsindicatedtobeeither“accessible”or“inaccessible.”RelativeProtectionStatusTheprotectionstatusoflandlimitsitsavailabilityformigration.Thismodulerecognizesthattheeffectivelevelofprotectionisoftenlowerthantheintendedmanagementobjectiveduetolackofenforcement,allowanceofcertaineconomicactivitiesorlandtenureconflict.“Protection”inthiscontextdoesnotpertainonlytostate-protectedconservationlands,butalsotoareassuchastimberconcessionsandlargeprivatelyheldforestsandnon-forestedlandinwhichactivitiestoexcludemigrantsettlementwouldtypicallybeundertaken.ProtectedlandsshouldbeconsideredtoincludeallprotectedforestsfallinginIUCNcategoriesI,IIandIII,allcurrentlymanagedtimberconcessionsandallexistingUDefPAsandUDefLBsassociatedwithprojectsthathavebeenvalidatedorverifiedinthepastfiveyears.Theoutputofthisanalysisisadigitalmapofprotectionstatuswithalllandsassignedtobeeither“protected”or“unprotected.”Thedigitalmapsofpotentiallyarableland,physicallyaccessiblelandandprotectionstatusarecombinedintoasinglemap.Landsindicatedas“notpotentiallyarable,”“inaccessible,”or“protected”areconsidered“unavailable.”Allremaininglandsareclassifiedas“available.”Theoutputofthisanalysisisadigitalmapoflandavailableforactivityshifting.120VMD0055,v1.0Aavailableisthenthecalculatedareaof“available”land.A2.2Step2:DevelopArea-WeightedEmissionFactorforActivityShiftingtoOutsidetheUDefLBEmissionsfactorsforlandssubjectedtoactivityshiftingareestimatedbyconservativelyassumingthatactivityshiftingresultsinlong-termagriculturallanduse.Forsimplicity,theemissionfactorwillrepresentthearea-weightedcarbonstockofavailableforestsintheaboveground(AB)andbelowground(BB)pools.Acarbonstratificationmapmustbesourcedtoconductaspatialoverlaytoidentifytheareaofeachjurisdictionalcarbonstratumthatfallswithinthe“available”category.Thecarbonstratificationmapmustbesourcedfrompeer-reviewedforestcarbonstockmapswithconsistentcoverageofthejurisdiction.Overlayingthemapsof“available”arablelandsonthecarbonstockmapswillallowderivationoftheaveragestockacrossallrelevantpixels.Wherethisstockisabovegroundbiomassonly,belowgroundbiomassshouldbeaddedwitharoot-to-shootratiosourcedfromIPCCGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventories.TheoutputisajurisdictionalemissionfactorduetolandcovertransitioninareasavailableforactivityshiftingoutsidetheUDefLBexpressedas:ΔCOLB=EmissionsfromcarbonstockchangeduetolandcovertransitioninareasavailableforactivityshiftingoutsidetheUDefLB(tCO2e/ha)ThejurisdictionalemissionfactorduetolandcovertransitioninareasavailableforactivityshiftingoutsidetheUDefLBwillbeestimatedforeachBVPandwillbespecifiedintheADBaselineAllocationReport.121VMD0055,v1.0APPENDIX3:THEPROJECTBASELINEDEVELOPMENTPROCESSDevelopmentofanavoidingunplanneddeforestationprojectusingthismethodologyrequiresthedevelopmentofanemissionsbaselineusingADallocatedtoprojectsbyVerra.AsdescribedinAppendixes1Error!Referencesourcenotfound.and2,thejurisdictionalaverageannualunplanneddeforestationrateandthejurisdictionalemissionfactorforlandcovertransitioninareasavailableforactivityshiftingoutsidetheUDefLBareproducedbyVerraandprovidedtoprojectproponents.Projectproponentsthenconvertdatafortheirprojectsintoemissionbaselinesusingproject-specificemissionfactors(assetoutinSection5.3.2.3).Figure7andFigure8illustratethehigh-levelprocessforavoidingunplanneddeforestationprojectsapplyingthismodule.122VMD0055,v1.0Figure7:High-levelbaselinegenerationprocessfornewprojects123VMD0055,v1.0Figure8:High-levelbaselinegenerationprocessforregisteredprojectsA3.1SubmissionofUDefADBaselineAllocationRequestToapplythismoduleanddevelopaprojectdescription,projectproponentsmustreceiveanADBaselineAllocationReportfromVerra.ThereportmustberequestedbysubmittinganADBaselineAllocationRequestFormviatheVerraRegistry.TherequestmustcontainthefollowingforeachUDefPAoreachprojectactivityinstance(inthecaseofgroupedprojects):1)NameoftheUDefPA(e.g.,compartmentnumber,allotmentnumber,localname,whererelevant);124VMD0055,v1.02)AKMLfilewithgeodeticpolygonsthatpreciselydelineatetheareawheretheprojectproponenthasthelegalrighttocontrolandoperateprojectactivities,asdefinedbytheVCSStandard;and3)Thestartdateoftheprojectorprojectactivityinstance.Projectproponentsmustrequestpipelinelistingforaprojectas“underdevelopment”beforeorconcurrentlywithsubmittinganADBaselineAllocationRequestForm.ProjectproponentsareencouragedtorequestADbaselineallocationearlyintheirdevelopmentprocessbutmustsubmitanADBaselineAllocationRequestFormbeforetheyrequestpipelinelistingas“undervalidation.”Forgroupedprojects,anADBaselineAllocationRequestFormmustbesubmittedeachtimeaprojectactivityinstanceisaddedtotheproject.TheVCSRegistrationandIssuanceProcesssetsouttheprocessforrequestingandbeingallocatedAD.A3.2ReviewofADBaselineAllocationRequestsInreviewingtheallocationrequest,Verrawillconsiderthefollowing:1)WhethertheprojectnestsunderaJNRProgram:a)Whereaprojectoverlaps28fullywithaprogramareaofaregisteredJNRprogram,theprojectmustnestaccordingtothejurisdictionalprogram’snestingscenarioandfollowtheprovisionsoftheprogramtoestablishitsbaseline.UnlessthenestingprovisionsexplicitlyrelyonVerratoallocateADbaseline,theADbaselinewillbedirectlyallocatedbythejurisdictionalprogram.29b)WhereaprojectpartiallyoverlapswiththeboundariesofaregisteredJNRprogram,pointa)abovemustapplytotheoverlappingareas.UnlessthenestingprovisionsoftheJNRprogramrelyonVerratoallocatetheADbaseline,ADwillbeallocatedbytheJNRprogramfortheoverlappingareas,andbyVerraforthenon-overlappingareas.OverlappingareasmustnestundertheJNRprogramaccordingtothejurisdictionalprogram’srules.ProjectsthatpartiallyoverlapwithaJNRprogrammustbedesignedas“multipleprojectactivities”andmustrefertotherelatedrequirementsinthemostrecentversionoftheVCSStandard.c)WhereaprojectoverlapswithaJNRprogramindevelopment(i.e.,notyetregistered),VerrawillproduceandallocatebaselineADfortheoverlappingareauntiltheJNRprogramisregistered,atwhichpointprojectswillnestundertheJNRprogram.The28Inthissection,overlapreferstoageographicalandtemporaloverlap.TemporaloverlapmeanstheprojectstartsduringthejurisdictionalBVP.29TheprojectmaystillapplyotherportionsofthismethodologyprovidedthisisexplicitlyallowedbytheJNRprogram.125VMD0055,v1.0project’stransitiontotheJNRnestingrequirementsiseffectivefortheverificationthatfollowstheJNRprogram’sregistration,regardlessofthenumberofyearsthatarestillvalidundertheVerra-allocatedADbaseline.2)Whetheranexistingjurisdictionalbaselineapplies:a)WhereaprojectoverlapsfullywithajurisdictionforwhichjurisdictionalADwerepreviouslydevelopedbyVerra,theprojectwillreceiveitsallocationinaccordancewiththepreviouslydevelopeddata.b)WhereaprojectpartiallyoverlapswithajurisdictionforwhichjurisdictionalADwerepreviouslydevelopedbyVerra,theprojectwillbeallocatedbaselineADbasedonthepreviouslydevelopeddatafortheoverlappingareasonly.VerrawillproducejurisdictionalADforthenon-overlappingjurisdictionsandallocatethemtotherelevantportionoftheproject.c)WherenojurisdictionalADareavailableforaproject,VerrawillproducejurisdictionalADandallocatethemtotheproject.A3.3ProcessandResponsibilitiesforADBaselineAllocationA3.3.1AllocationofBaselineADtoProjectVerraisresponsibleforallocatingbaselineADtoUDefPAandUDefLB30usingthelatestversionoftheUnplannedDeforestationAllocationTool(UDef-AT).AsdescribedinA1.4.3Step3ofAppendix1,VerrapostsanADBaselineAllocationReporttotheproject’spageontheVerraRegistry.TheADBaselineAllocationReportcontainstheinformationsetoutinAppendix1SectionA1.1.Usingthisinformation,projectsareresponsibleforallocatingbaselineADtoeachforeststratumoftheUDefPAandUDefLBbasedontherelativeareaofeachforeststratumwithinriskclassesasdescribedinSection5.3.2.2ofthismodule.TheresultsmustbeusedtoassessbaselineGHGemissionsandmustbedescribedintheprojectdescription.Wheretheboundariesoftheprojectareaarealteredduringthevalidationortheregistrationprocess(e.g.,asaresultofaVVBcorrectiveactionrequest,orasaresultofVerra’saccuracyreview),theprojectproponentmustrequestanewADbaselineallocationusingthecorrectedprojectarea.VerraissuesarevisedADBaselineAllocationReportthatmustbeusedtocorrectthebaselineGHGemissions.30SeeSectionsandError!Referencesourcenotfound.forhowUDefPAandUDefLBaredelineatedbyVerrabasedontheprojectareaKMLthatisprovidedbytheprojectproponentwhensubmittingtheADBaselineAllocationRequestForm.126VMD0055,v1.0A3.3.2ProductionofJurisdictionalADBaselineJurisdictionalADbaselinesareproducedbyVerrafollowingtheproceduresandrequirementssetoutinAPPENDIX1:DeterminationofJurisdictionalDatafor.ADbaselineallocationrequirespriorproductionofajurisdictionalADbaseline,jurisdictionalFCBMandjurisdictionaldeforestationriskmap.Projectproponents,governmentsandothereligiblestakeholdersengagedinavoidingunplanneddeforestationprojectdevelopmentinajurisdictionmaysubmittechnicalmaterialstoVerraforreview,considerationandpotentialincorporationintojurisdictionaldataproducts.OnceVerrahasannouncedthatADwillbeproducedforagivenjurisdiction,arequestforproposalsfrompotentialDSPswillbeissuedpublicly.VerrawillselectandcontractaDSPconsideringtheirtechnicalexpertise,experienceinthechosenjurisdiction,financialofferandabilitytodeliverwithinthepre-determinedtimeframe.DSPsactasagentsofVerra;therefore,theworkoftheDSPisreferredtoasVerra’sthroughoutthismodule.A3.3.3DevelopmentoftheJurisdictionalDeforestationRiskMapTheUnplannedDeforestationAllocationTool(UDef-AT)setsout:1)Thebenchmarkriskmappingapproach;and2)Thestatisticalmethodsforcomparingtheperformanceofalternativeriskmapsagainstthebenchmarkriskmap.VerrawillapplyproceduresprovidedintheUDef-ATtodevelopabenchmarkriskmapandatleasttwoalternativeriskmapsthatincorporatejurisdiction-specificriskfactors.Thebest-performingriskmapwillbeadoptedforuseinthejurisdictionduringtheentiretyoftherespectiveBVP.JurisdictionaldeforestationriskmapswillbeupdatedatthebeginningofeachsubsequentBVP.A3.3.4Stakeholders’ContributiontoJurisdictionalProductsVerrawilltakesubmissionsofdataproductsforagivenjurisdictionrelatedtoADcollectionandriskmapping.Stakeholdersmaysubmitmaterials,includingdatasets,maps,technicalguidance,recommendeddefinitionsandSOPs.AcompletedescriptionofthetypesoftechnicalmaterialspermittedforsubmissionandthedutiesofthedatadeveloperinrespondingtothemarecataloguedinAppendix4.Forestcoverbenchmarkmapdatasubmissionsmaybejurisdictionalinscopeorrestrictedtotheprojectareasandleakagebeltsofexistingorproposedavoidingunplanneddeforestationprojects.Verragiveshigherprioritytotheuseofdatasetsfromofficialgovernmentsources,suchasthosederivedfromnationalforestmonitoringsystemsorREDDmonitoring,reportingandverification127VMD0055,v1.0platforms,providedthosedatasetsandsourcesmeetthestandardsandspecificationsdescribedinAppendix4.A3.3.5ExpertAssessmentofJurisdictionalDataAnindependentexpertwillbecontractedbyVerratoassessthedataandproceduresusedtoconstructthejurisdictionalADanddeforestationriskmap.TheassessmentprocessmayrequireVerratoadjusttheADorriskmaptoensurecompliancewiththismethodologyandassociatedmodulesandtools.Oncevalidated,thejurisdictionalADanddeforestationriskmapwillbeadoptedforallocation.128VMD0055,v1.0APPENDIX4:DATACONTRIBUTIONBYSTAKEHOLDERSVerraisresponsibleforADcollection,riskmapdevelopmentandADallocation.Verrawillcontractwithdataserviceproviders(DSPs)toaccomplishthis.AnystakeholdermayprovidedataproductsrelatedtoADcollectionandriskmappingforagivenjurisdiction,providedtheseproductsmeettherequirementssetoutinTable18below.AsafirststepintheprocessofADcollection,riskmappingandallocation,VerrawillmakeapublicannouncementofarequestforproposalsforDSPsandsubmissionsofsupplementarymaterials.TherolesandresponsibilitiesofstakeholdersandDSPsaresetoutinTable18.Table18:ADdatacollection,riskmappingandallocationrolesPrimaryDataProductSubmissionsfromProjectDataServiceProviderProponents,GovernmentsandResponsibilitiesOtherEngagedStakeholdersJurisdictionalBoundaryProposeddefinitionofjurisdictionNone;finaldecisionismadebyDefinition(Appendix1SectionandjustificationVerraA1.2.1)UnplannedDeforestationSampleplotobservationsTheDSPmustevaluatetheseActivityDatarepresentativeofthejurisdiction,materialsandincorporatethemincludingthosedevelopedfortothehighestdegreefeasible.(Appendix1SectionA1.4)nationalFRELandbyothergroupsAnyobservationsthatmeetthatmeetthestandardsdescribedinrequirementsmustberetained.Appendix1forsampleplotobservations,coveringtimeperiodTheDSPmaycollectadditionalandresolutionofsourceimagery.plotstosupplementnationaldataforsuchpurposesasTheimageryonwhichobservationsreducingoveralluncertaintytoweremademustbemadeavailablemeetrequirementsandtotheDSPtothehighestdegreeimprovingspatialrepresentationfeasible.ofanyareasnotcoveredbynationaldata.Supplementarymaterials,whichmayTheDSPwillreviewallincludeanycombinationof:submissionsandprovidearesponsetoeachsubmissionon•Workingdefinitionofforestwhetherandhowthesubmission(whereadjustmentsfromofficialwillbeincorporatedintothedefinitionareneededforanalysisplan.practicalreasons);Wheresubmissionsrepresent•Sampleplotobservations;officialgovernmentdata,theDSP•Spatialstratificationofshouldusethesedatawherethejurisdiction;129VMD0055,v1.0•SOPforimageryinterpretation;dataareshowntobeofatleast•Descriptionofthejurisdiction-comparablefitnessforpurposeasotheravailabledatasources.specificcharacteristicsofplanneddeforestation;Exceptinthecaseofofficial•SOPforidentificationofplannedgovernmentdata,DSPisnotdeforestation;andobligatedtouseanyorall•Imagerydata.submissionsindatasetgeneration.SubmissionsmustincludeadescriptionofeachitemandtheproposedapplicationoftheitemwithinADgeneration.MapsofIdentifiedExclusionMapsdepictinganyoftheidentifiedTheDSPwillreviewallAreasexclusionareas(activecommercialsubmissionsandprovidea(Appendix1SectionA1.4.1plantations;intertidalzones;responsetoeachsubmissiononStep1)infrequent,largenaturalwhetherandhowthesubmissiondisturbances;large-scalewillbeincorporatedintotheMapofAvailableLandforinfrastructure;permanentbodiesofanalysisplan.ActivityShiftingwater)(Appendix1SectionA2.1)Wheresubmissionsrepresentofficialgovernmentdata,theDSPshouldusethesedatawherethedataareshowntobeofatleastcomparablefitnessforpurposeasotheravailabledatasources.Exceptinthecaseofofficialgovernmentdata,theDSPisnotobligatedtouseanyorallsubmissionsindatasetgeneration.Mayincludeanycombinationof:TheDSPwillreviewallsubmissionsandprovidea•Ancillaryspatialdata;responsetoeachsubmissionon•Nationalcarbonstockmap;whetherandhowthesubmission•Mapofpotentiallyarableland;willbeincorporatedintothe•Mapofprotectionstatus;andanalysisplan.•Mapofaccessibility.WheresubmissionsrepresentSubmissionsmustincludeaofficialgovernmentdata,theDSPdescriptionofeachitemandtheshouldusethesedatawheretheproposedapplicationoftheitemtodataareshowntobeofatleastgenerationoftheMapofAvailablecomparablefitnessforpurposeLandforActivityShifting.asotheravailabledatasources.Exceptinthecaseofofficialgovernmentdata,theDSPisnotobligatedtouseanyorallsubmissionsindatasetgeneration.130VMD0055,v1.0ForestCoverBenchmarkMapMayincludeanycombinationof:TheDSPwillreviewall(Appendix1SectionA1.4.3)submissions,including•DescriptionofimageryconductinganaccuracyRiskMapclassificationapproach;assessmentonanyFCBMp,and(UDef-AT)providearesponsetoeach•Ancillaryspatialdata;submissiononwhetherandhowADAllocation(UDef-AT)•Calibrationandvalidationpoints;thesubmissionwillbe(Appendix1SectionA1.4.3•DelineationofplannedincorporatedintotheanalysisStep3)plan.deforestationareas;•Remotesensingdata(e.g.,Wheresubmissionsrepresentofficialgovernmentdata,theDSPimagery);shouldusethesedatawherethe•Landcovermaps;anddataareshowntobeofatleast•Project-specificFCBM(FCBMp).comparablefitnessforpurposeasotheravailabledatasources.Submissionsmustincludeadescriptionofeachitem,theExceptinthecaseofofficialproposedapplicationoftheitemgovernmentdata,theDSPisnotwithinFCBMgenerationandobligatedtouseanyorallcitations.submissionsindatasetgeneration.Supplementarymaterials,includingTheDSPwillreviewallanycombinationof:submissionsandprovidearesponsetoeachsubmissionon•Descriptionofdrivers;whetherandhowthesubmission•Spatialriskfactormaps;andwillbeincorporatedintothe•Modelingalgorithms.analysisplan.SubmissionsmustincludeaWheresubmissionsrepresentdescriptionofeachitemandtheofficialgovernmentdata,theDSPproposedapplicationoftheiteminshouldusethesedatawheretheriskmapgeneration.dataareshowntobeofatleastcomparablefitnessforpurposeasotheravailabledatasources.Exceptinthecaseofofficialgovernmentdata,theDSPisnotobligatedtouseanyorallsubmissionsindatasetgeneration.NonepermittedConductedbytheDSPunlessaprojectproponentinthejurisdictionistheDSP.Inthatcase,allocationwillbeconductedbyVerra.131VMD0055,v1.0DOCUMENTHISTORYVersion27Nov2023Commentv1.0Initialversion132