VCSMethodologyVM0048REDUCINGEMISSIONSFROMDEFORESTATIONANDFORESTDEGRADATIONVersion1.027November2023SectoralScope14VM0048,v1.0Verradevelopedversion1.0ofthismethodologywithsupportfromTimPearson(GreenCollar),KevinR.Brown(WildlifeConservationSociety),SimonKoenig(ClimateFocus),TillNeeff,SarahM.Walker(WildlifeConservationSociety),LucioPedroni(CarbonDecisionsInternational).ManuelEstradamadesignificantcontributions.VM0048,v1.0CONTENTS1SOURCES...............................................................................................................12SUMMARYDESCRIPTIONOFTHEMETHODOLOGY....................................................23DEFINITIONS..........................................................................................................43.1Definitions..............................................................................................................................43.2Acronyms................................................................................................................................44APPLICABILITYCONDITIONS...................................................................................55PROJECTBOUNDARY..............................................................................................55.1GeographicBoundaries..........................................................................................................55.2CarbonPools..........................................................................................................................55.3SourcesofGHGEmissions......................................................................................................66BASELINESCENARIO..............................................................................................86.1DeterminationoftheMostPlausibleBaselineScenario..........................................................86.2ProjectsImplementedinJurisdictionalREDDProgramsorWhereaGovernmenthasEstablishedaREDDBaseline................................................................................................106.3BaselineValidity...................................................................................................................107ADDITIONALITY....................................................................................................118QUANTIFICATIONOFGHGEMISSIONREDUCTIONS.................................................118.1BaselineEmissions...............................................................................................................118.2ProjectEmissions.................................................................................................................128.3Leakage...............................................................................................................................128.4NetGHGEmissionReductions..............................................................................................139MONITORING.......................................................................................................149.1DataandParametersAvailableatValidation.........................................................................149.2DataandParametersMonitored...........................................................................................149.3DescriptionoftheMonitoringPlan........................................................................................1410REFERENCES.......................................................................................................18APPENDIX1:TESTINGSIGNIFICANCEOFGHGEMISSIONS................................................19DOCUMENTHISTORY......................................................................................................21VM0048,v1.01SOURCESThismethodologyisbasedontheVCSJurisdictionalandNestedREDD+(JNR)Frameworkv4.0andthefollowingmethodologies:•VM0006MethodologyforCarbonAccountingforMosaicandLandscape-scaleREDDProjects,v2.2•VM0007REDD+MethodologyFramework(REDD+MF),v1.6•VM0009MethodologyforAvoidedEcosystemConversion,v3.0•VM0015MethodologyforAvoidedUnplannedDeforestation,v1.1•VM0037MethodologyforImplementationofREDD+ActivitiesinLandscapesAffectedbyMosaicDeforestationandDegradation,v1.0Thismethodologyusesthelatestversionsofthefollowingmodulesandtools:•Activity-typeaccountingmodules:oVMD0055EstimationofEmissionsReductionsfromAvoidingUnplannedDeforestation(AUDef)oOtheractivity-typeaccountingmodulescoveringplanneddeforestationandunplanneddegradationorotherREDDactivitiesnotcoveredinAUDef(e.g.,AvoidingPlannedDeforestation,APDef,andAvoidingUnplannedForestDegradation,AUDeg)•Tools:oVCSAFOLUNon-PermanenceRiskTooloVCSVT0001ToolfortheDemonstrationandAssessmentofAdditionalityinVCSAFOLUProjectActivitiesoCDMMethodologicalTool:EstimationofDirectN2OEmissionfromNitrogenFertilization(E-NA)Thismethodologyusestheestimationproceduresdescribedinthefollowingmodulesforestimatingcarbonstocksinrelevantpools,leakage,directemissionsandmonitoring:1•VMD0001EstimationofCarbonStocksinAbove-andBelowgroundBiomassinLiveTreeandNon-treePools(CP-AB)1Wherethesemodulesrefertoexternaldocuments(e.g.,IPCCguidelines)andsuchdocumentsareupdated,themostrecentversionofthedocumentmustbeused.1VM0048,v1.0•VMD0002EstimationofCarbonStocksintheDeadWoodPool(CP-D)•VMD0003EstimationofCarbonStocksintheLitterPool(CP-L)•VMD0004EstimationofCarbonStocksintheSoilOrganicCarbonPool(CP-S)•VMD0005EstimationofCarbonStocksintheLong-termWoodProductsPool(CP-W)•VMD0011EstimationofEmissionsfromMarket-effects(LK-ME)•VMD0013EstimationofGreenhouseGasEmissionsfromBiomassandPeatBurning(E–BPB)•VMD0014EstimationofEmissionsfromFossilFuelCombustion(E-FFC)•VMD0016MethodsforStratificationoftheProjectArea(X-STR)2SUMMARYDESCRIPTIONOFTHEMETHODOLOGYAdditionalityandCreditingMethodAdditionalityProjectMethodCreditingBaselineProjectMethodThemodulesandtoolsreferencedinthisdocumentapplytoprojectactivitiesthatreduceemissionsfromunplanneddeforestation(UDef).Infutureiterations,additionalmoduleswillbeaddedtoaddressactivitiesthatreduceemissionsfromplanneddeforestation(PDef)andunplannedforestdegradation(UDeg).Foravoidingplannedforestdegradation,seetheimprovedforestmanagementcategoryofmethodologies.Referencetothismethodologyandthemodulesusedtoconstructtheproject-specificmethodologymustbegivenintheprojectdescription.Theprojectproponentmustjustifythechoiceofmodulesintheprojectdescription.Table1liststhemodulesandtools,indicatingwheretheuseofmodules/toolsismandatory,optionalornotapplicable.Appendix1ofthismethodologymustbeusedtojustifytheomissionofcarbonpoolsandemissionsources.2VM0048,v1.0Table1:Determinationofwheremodule/tooluseismandatory(M),optional(O)ortobedetermined(TBD)forallprojectactivitiescoveredbythismethodologyProjectActivitiesModule/ToolUDefPDefUDegAUDefMOOAPDefOMOAUDegOOMAFOLUNon-PermanenceRiskToolMTBDTBDE-NACP-AB(m)1TBDTBDCP-DMTBDTBDCP-LTBDTBDCP-S(m)2TBDTBDCP-WOTBDTBDLK-MEOTBDTBDE-BPBTBDTBDE-FFC(m)3TBDTBDX-STR(m)3TBDTBDTBDTBDMOMTABLENOTESAUDefVMD0055EstimationofEmissionsfromAvoidingUnplannedDeforestationAPDefVMD00XXEstimationofEmissionsfromAvoidingPlannedDeforestation(underdevelopment)AUDegVMD00XXEstimationofEmissionsfromAvoidingUnplannedForestDegradation(underMdevelopment)OFullymandatoryforthegivenprojectactivity(i.e.,theindicatedmodulesandtoolsmustbe(m)1used)(m)2Fullyoptionalforthegivenprojectactivity(i.e.,theindicatedpoolsandsourcesmaybeincluded(m)3orexcludedasdecidedbytheproject,butwheretheyareincludedinthebaseline,theymustalsobeincludedintheprojectscenario)MandatoryforthegivenprojectactivitywhereleakagepreventionactivitiesincludeincreasesintheuseoffertilizersMandatoryforthegivenprojectactivitywherethiscarbonpoolisgreaterinthebaseline(post-deforestation/degradation)thanprojectscenarioandsignificant;otherwisemaybeconservativelyomittedMandatoryforthegivenprojectactivitywheretheprocessofdeforestationinvolvestimberharvesting,fuelwoodcollectionand/orcharcoalproductionforcommercialmarkets3VM0048,v1.03DEFINITIONS3.1DefinitionsInadditiontothedefinitionssetoutintheVCSProgramdocumentProgramDefinitionsandadditionaldefinitionsinspecificmodules,thefollowingdefinitionsapplytothismethodologyandanyofthemodulesused.Activitydata(AD)DataonthemagnitudeofahumanactivitythatresultsinemissionsorremovalstakingplaceduringagivenperiodoftimeBaselinevalidityperiodTheperiodoftimeforwhichabaselineisconsideredvalid,assetoutintheVCSStandardForestInadditiontothedefinitionsetoutintheVCSProgramDefinitionsandtherequirementsoftheVCSMethodologyRequirements,forthismethodology,“forest”mustincludewoodyvegetationwithacanopycoverofbetween10and30percent,asusedintherelevantcountry’sinternationalreportingtotheUNFCCC,orasotherwiseofficiallyelectedasanapplicabledefinitionforusebyclimatechangemitigationprojectsandprograms.Whereacountry’snationalforestdefinitionexcludesspecificlanduse/landmanagementtypesand/orvegetativeclasses,stratificationshouldidentifytheseareastoenablefutureinclusion/exclusioninnestedaccounting.Planneddeforestation(PDef)DeforestationonforestlandsthatarelegallyauthorizedanddocumentedforconversionUnplanneddeforestation(UDef)DeforestationofdegradedtomatureforestsnotlegallyauthorizedanddocumentedforconversionFordefinitionsofVCSAFOLUprojectcategories,refertotheVCSStandard.3.2AcronymsADActivitydataGHGGreenhousegasJNRJurisdictionalandNestedREDD+SOPStandardoperatingprocedure(s)UDefUnplanneddeforestation4VM0048,v1.04APPLICABILITYCONDITIONSThismethodologymayonlybeusedforeligibleREDDprojectsandactivitiesdescribedintheVCSMethodologyRequirements.TheapplicabilityconditionsforeachactivitytypearelistedinAUDef,andwillbelistedinAPDefandAUDeg.5PROJECTBOUNDARY5.1GeographicBoundariesThespatialboundariesoftheprojectareamustbeclearlydefinedtofacilitateaccuratemeasuring,monitoring,accountingandverificationoftheproject’semissionsreductions.Theprojectactivitymayencompassmorethanonediscreteareaofland.Whendescribingphysicalprojectboundaries,thefollowinginformationmustbeprovidedforeachdiscretearea:1)Nameoftheprojectarea(e.g.,compartmentnumber,allotmentnumber,localname),givingauniqueIDforeachdiscreteparcelofland;2)Map(s)ofthearea(indigitalformat);3)Geographiccoordinatesofeachpolygonvertexalongwithdocumentationoftheiraccuracy(fromageo-referenceddigitalmap–datamustbeprovidedintheformatspecifiedintheVCSStandard);4)Totallandarea;and5)Detailsoflandholderanduserrights.Theforestedprojectarea(withineachdiscreteareaofprojectactivity)mustbecontinuouswithoutarbitraryexclusionsofforestsinthesamegeography(e.g.,withoutexcludingforestsnexttovillagesaroundwhichdeforestationislikelytooccur).TheboundaryoftheREDDactivitymustbeclearlydelineatedanddefinedandincludeonlylandqualifyingasforestforaminimumof10yearsbeforetheprojectstartdate.SpecificboundariesexistforspecificactivitytypeswithREDD–detailsandrequirementsareprovidedintheappropriateaccountingmodules(e.g.,AUDef).ForprojectswheremultipleAFOLUprojectactivitiesarebeingimplementedwithintheprojectboundary,thediscreteareaswhereeachactivityisimplementedmustbespatiallydelineated.5.2CarbonPoolsThecarbonpoolsincludedinorexcludedfromtheboundaryofREDDprojectactivitiesareshowninTable2.5VM0048,v1.0Theselectionofcarbonpoolsandtheappropriatejustificationmustbepresentedintheprojectdescription.WhereREDDactivitiestakeplaceinwetlands,theprojectmustaccountforexpectedemissionsfromthesoilorganiccarbonpoolorchangesinthesoilorganiccarbonpoolintheprojectscenariounlessdeemeddeminimis.ThesignificanceofpoolsmustbedeterminedbyusingtheprocedureoutlinedinAppendix1.Table2:CarbonpoolsincludedinorexcludedfromtheREDDprojectboundaryPoolIncluded?Justification/ExplanationAbovegroundtreeIncludedMajorcarbonpoolthatwillsignificantlydecreaseinbiomassIncludedthebaselinescenariointhecaseofdeforestationIncludedorforestdegradationBelowgroundtreeOptionalbiomassMajorcarbonpoolthatwillsignificantlydecreaseinthebaselinescenariointhecaseofdeforestationAbovegroundnon-treeorforestdegradationbiomassMustbeincludedinthebaseline(post-Belowgroundnon-treedeforestationcarbonstocks)butmaybebiomassconservativelyexcludedfromforestcarbonstocksDeadwoodLitterPotentialemissionsarenegligible.SoilorganiccarbonOptionalConservativetoexcludeHarvestedwoodOptionalproductsOptional/ConservativetoexcludeIncludedNon-wetlandsoils:ConservativetoexcludeOptionalWetlandsoils:Majorcarbonpoolthatmaysignificantlyincreaseordecreaseinboththebaselineandprojectscenarios.Appendix1ofthismethodologymustbeusedtodeterminesignificance.Maybeexcludedwheretimberharvestisnegligibleinthebaselinecase.Appendix1ofthismethodologymustbeusedtodeterminesignificance.5.3SourcesofGHGEmissionsTheprojectmustaccountforanysignificantincreasesinemissionsofcarbondioxide(CO2),nitrousoxide(N2O)andmethane(CH4),relativetothebaseline,thatarereasonablyattributabletotheprojectactivity.6VM0048,v1.0TheGHGemissionsourcesincludedinorexcludedfromtheboundaryoftheREDDprojectactivityareshowninTable3.Theselectionofsourcesandtheappropriatejustificationmustbeprovidedintheprojectdescription.ProceduresspecifiedinAppendix1ofthismethodologymustbeusedtodeterminewhetheranemissionssourceissignificant.Whereasourceisincludedinestimatingbaselineemissions,2itmustalsobeincludedincalculatingprojectandleakageemissions.Table3:GHGsourcesincludedinorexcludedfromtheREDDprojectboundarySourceGasIncluded?Justification/ExplanationBurningofCO2IncludedMajoremissionssourceOptionalNon-CO2gasesemittedfromwoodybiomassburningwoodyOptional–itisconservativetoexclude.OptionalbiomassCH4ExcludedMaybeexcludedwheredeterminednegligibleExcludedPotentialemissionsarenegligible.N2OExcludedPotentialemissionsarenegligible.ExcludedPotentialemissionsarenegligible.BaselineCombustionCO2OptionalPotentialemissionsarenegligible.offossilfuelsIncludedMaybeexcludedwheredeterminednegligibleIncludedMajoremissionssourceCH4IncludedMajoremissionssourceOptionalN2OMajoremissionssourceExcludedUseofCO2ExcludedEmissionsassociatedwiththecombustionoffossilfuelsduetoleakagepreventionactivitiesarealwaysfertilizersconsideredinsignificant.Emissionsassociatedwithotheractivities(e.g.,CH4monitoring,patrolling)mustbedemonstratedasnegligibletobeomitted.N2OPotentialemissionsarenegligible.BurningofCO2Potentialemissionsarenegligible.woodybiomassCH4N2OProjectCombustionCO2offossilfuelsCH4N2O2Forexample,CH4orN2Oemissionsfromagricultureresultingfromdeforestationorfiretoclearforest7VM0048,v1.0SourceGasIncluded?Justification/ExplanationUseofCO2ExcludedPotentialemissionsarenegligible.fertilizersCH4ExcludedPotentialemissionsarenegligible.N2OOptionalMustbeincludedwherefertilizeruseincreasesduetotheproject(e.g.,asaleakageavoidancemechanism).Otherwise,itmaybeexcludedifitisalsoexcludedfromthebaseline.6BASELINESCENARIO6.1DeterminationoftheMostPlausibleBaselineScenarioDeterminationofthemostplausiblebaselinescenariobuildsontheoutcomeoftheadditionalityanalysis(Section7)andmustbeconsistentwiththedescriptionoftheconditionspriortotheprojectstartdate.VT0001mustbeusedtoassesstheprojectadditionality.ThestepwiseapproachbelowmustbefollowedinadditiontoVT0001todeterminethemostplausiblebaselinescenario.Step1:ReusetheplausiblealternativelandusescenariostotheREDDprojectactivitythathavebeenlistedasanoutcomeofSub-step1boftheadditionalitytoolVT0001.UnlessithasbeendemonstratedthatanyoftheselandusescenariosarenotcredibleordonotcomplywithallmandatoryapplicablelegislationandregulationsasrequiredbyVT0001Sub-step1b,thelistofplausiblealternativelandusescenariosmustincludeatleast:1)Continuationofthepre-projectlanduse;2)ProjectactivityperformedonthelandwithintheprojectboundarywithoutbeingregisteredasaVCSREDDproject;and3)ActivitiessimilartotheproposedprojectactivityonatleastpartofthelandwithintheprojectboundaryoftheproposedREDDproject.8VM0048,v1.0Step2a:WheretheVT0001barrieranalysisisusedtodemonstrateadditionality,applythedecisiontreeinFigure1tothelistofallalternativelandusescenariosfromStep1thatarenotpreventedbyanybarrier.Figure1.BarrieranalysisdecisiontreeStep2b:WheretheVT0001investmentanalysisisusedtodemonstrateadditionality,andifatleastonelandusescenariogeneratesfinancialbenefitsotherthancarbonrevenues,selectthebaselinescenarioasbelow:4)WhereVT0001OptionIisused,thebaselinescenarioisthelandusescenariowiththelowestcostsoverthecreditingperiod).OptionImayonlybeappliedifthealternativescenariosdonotincluderevenues.5)WhereVT0001OptionIIisused,thebaselinescenarioisthemosteconomicallyorfinanciallyattractivelandusescenario(i.e.,thescenariowiththemostfavorablefinancialindicatorsuchasinternalrateofreturn).6)WhereVT0001OptionIIIisusedandnoneofthealternativelandusescenarioshaveafinancialindicatorthatmeetsthebenchmark,thebaselinescenarioisthecontinuationofthepre-projectlanduse.WhereOptionIIIisusedandatleastoneofthelandusescenarioshasafinancialindicatorthatmeetsthebenchmark,thebaselinescenarioisthescenariothathasthemostfavorablefinancialindicator(e.g.,internalrateofreturn,netpresentvalueorcost-benefitratio).9VM0048,v1.0Step3:Wherebarrieranalysisisusedtodemonstrateadditionalitybutdoesnotallowdeterminationofthebaselinescenario,implementoneofthefollowing:1)AninvestmentanalysisfollowingVT0001OptionII(regardlessofwhetherithasbeenusedtodemonstrateadditionality).SelectthemostplausiblebaselineasspecifiedinStep2babove;or2)Throughqualitativeanalysis,estimatethebaselineGHGemissionsforeachalternativelandusescenariothatisnotpreventedbyanybarrier.ThebaselinescenarioisthelandusescenariothatallowsforthelowestbaselineGHGemissions.Estimatesmustbebasedonpubliclyavailabledefaultfactorsandstandards,suchastheIPCC2006GuidelinesforNationalGHGInventoriesandits2019RefinementsortheIPCC2003GoodPracticeGuidelinesforLULUCF.Allotherdatausedmustbepubliclyavailableandmustcomefromrecognized,crediblesources,suchaspeer-reviewedliterature.QuantificationofGHGemissionsundertheselectedbaselinescenariomustfollowtheapplicableandrelevantactivity-typemodule(s).6.2ProjectsImplementedinJurisdictionalREDDProgramsorWhereaGovernmenthasEstablishedaREDDBaselineProjectsthatareimplementedwithinaregisteredJNRprogramareeligibletousethismethodologyforactivitiesincludedunderthatprogram.However,projectsmustbenestedaccordingtotherequirementssetoutintheJNRScenario1RequirementsorJNRScenario2Requirements,asappropriate.REDDprojectsthatareimplementedwithinanon-JNRREDDjurisdictionalprogramshouldalsofollowtherelevantjurisdictionalprogram’srequirements(e.g.,withrespecttobaseline,assetoutinAUDef),buttheymustberegisteredandmonitoredunderVCSfollowingthismethodology.Furtherclarificationissetoutintherelevantmodule(s).Wherethebaselineestimatedusingtheactivitydataallocatedtotheprojectthroughthismethodologyishigherthanthelocalgovernment’sbaseline,aprojectproponentmayelecttolimittheamountofVCUsitissuestotheamountthatwouldbeissuedbasedonthislowerbaseline.Whererequiredbylocalregulations,suchlimitationismandatory.6.3BaselineValidityBaselineprojectionsbeyondthebaselinevalidityperiodarenotrequiredforREDDprojectactivities.TheprojectbaselinemustbereassessedpertheVCSStandardandtherequirementintherelevantmodule.Thedateofthenextscheduledbaselinereassessmentmustbespecifiedintheprojectdescription.10VM0048,v1.07ADDITIONALITYAdditionalityoftheprojectactivitiesmustbedemonstratedusingthemostrecentversionofVT0001ToolfortheDemonstrationandAssessmentofAdditionalityinVCSAFOLUProjectActivitiesandbyfollowingtheadditionalguidanceoninvestmentanalysisofthelatestversionoftheVCSMethodologyRequirements.ProjectproponentsmustalsodemonstrateregulatorysurplusinaccordancewithboththerequirementsonregulatorysurplussetoutinthelatestversionoftheVCSStandardandtherulesandmethodstoassessanddemonstrateregulatorysurplusdescribedinthelatestversionoftheVCSMethodologyRequirements.InUNFCCCnon-AnnexIcountries,whereregulatorysurplusisjustifiedbythelackofsystematiclawenforcementitmustbedemonstratedthatenforcementofthelawisoutofthecontroloftheprojectproponentandotherentitiesinvolvedintheproject.SuchlackofcontrolmaybedemonstratedbythebarriersidentifiedinStep3ofVT0001.8QUANTIFICATIONOFGHGEMISSIONREDUCTIONS8.1BaselineEmissions8.1.1GeneralProceduresThesameprocedureforquantifyingemissionsandcarbonstocksmustbefollowedexanteandexpost.Forparametersmonitoredafterprojectinitiation,guidanceisgivenintheparametertablesoftherelevantmodulesforthevaluesthatmustbeusedinexantecalculations.Thebaselineoftheprojectactivityisestimatedexante.Exantebaselineestimationsareusedintheexanteandexpostestimationofnetcarbonstockchangesandgreenhousegasemissionreductions.Therelevantactivitymodules(e.g.,AUDef)providemethodsforestimatingnetbaselinecarbonstockchangesandgreenhousegasemissions.8.1.2BaselineReassessmentandTransitiontoVM0048WhereprojectshaveverifiedusingVM0009priortotheirtransitiontoVM0048,projectproponentsmustfollowtheprovisionssetoutinVM0009torevisethebaselineemissionsmodel(seeSection6.20ofVM0009,v3.0orequivalentsectioninthemostrecentversionofthemethodology).11VM0048,v1.0Where,afterbaselinereevaluation,therevisedbaselineemissionsmodelpredictsfewerGHGemissionreductionsthanVCUsissuedunderthepreviousmodel,theprojectmustcompensateforthisdifferencebyoneofthefollowingmethods:1)CancelationofVCUsfromtheprojectintheprojectproponent’sVerraRegistryaccountthathavenotbeenusedforoffsettingpurposes(“activeVCUs”),orofalreadyissuedactiveVCUswheretheprojectproponentgainstheconsentofthecurrentowner,and/or2)ReplacementoftheemissionreductionsthroughimmediatecancelationfromsubsequentissuancesofVCUstotheproject.ThedeductionmaybedistributedovermorethanoneverificationperiodprovidedadeductionplanhasbeensubmittedtoandapprovedbyVerra.ProjectsmustdescribetheapplicablecalculationsasaprojectdescriptiondeviationinthefirstmonitoringreportsubmittedaftertransitioningtoVM0048.Thevalidation/verificationbodymustassessthecalculationsandensurethatadeductionplan,whererelevant,hasbeenapprovedbyVerra.8.2ProjectEmissionsThesameprocedureforprojectemissionsmustbefollowedexanteandexpost.Forparametersmonitoredafterprojectinitiation,guidanceisgivenintheparametertablesoftherelevantmodulesforexantecalculations.MethodsforestimatingnetcarbonstockchangesandGHGemissionsintheprojectscenarioareprovidedintherelevantactivitymodules(e.g.,AUDef).8.3LeakageEmissionsfromdifferentleakagesourcesmustbeestimatedunlessdeemeddeminimis:1)Activity-shiftingleakage;2)Market-effectleakage;and3)Emissionsfromleakagepreventionactivities.Therelevantactivitymodulesspecifytheleakagesourcesthatmustbeestimated.ThesignificanceofleakageandcarbonpoolsmustbedeterminedusingAppendix1ofthismethodology.Therelevantactivitymodules(e.g.,AUDef)providemethodsforestimatingnetcarbonstockchangesandGHGemissionsduetoactivity-shiftingleakage.LeakageduetomarketeffectsmustbeconsideredusingLK-ME.Marketeffectsmustbeconsideredwheretheprojectleadstodecreasedtimber,fuelwoodorcharcoalproduction.12VM0048,v1.0Whereleakagepreventionactivitiesresultinsignificantincreasesinemissionsfromcarbonstockchanges,biomassburningand/orincreasedfertilizerusage,3anyincreaseinGHGemissionsassociatedwiththeseactivitiesmustbeaccountedforfollowingtherelevantactivitymodules(e.g.,AUDef),unlessdeemeddeminimis.Leakagepreventionactivitiesmayleadtoanincreaseinthecombustionoffossilfuels.However,anyincreaseinemissionsbecauseoftheincreasedcombustionoffossilfuelsisconsidereddeminimisanddoesnotneedtobequantifiedorreported.Whereleakagepreventionleadstoasignificantincreaseinfertilizeruse,moduleE-NAmustbeused.Leakagepreventionmustnotincludethefloodingofagriculturallands(e.g.,fornewricepaddies)northecreationoflivestockfeedlotsormanurelagoons.Leakagepreventionmustnotincludethedrainageofpeatland.Thelistofleakagesourceswithappropriatejustificationmustbepresentedintheprojectdescription.8.4NetGHGEmissionReductionsTheprojectproponentmustpresentconservativeexanteestimationsoftheprojectactivity'stotalnetGHGemissionsreductions.Refertotherelevantaccountingmodulesandtheparametertableswithinthesemodulesforinstructionsonexanteestimationsofspecificparameters.ThepotentialnumberofVerifiedCarbonUnits(VCUs)forthemonitoringperiodtisestimatedasfollows:𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑡𝑡=𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴+𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴+𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴(1)Where:=NumberofpotentialVerifiedCarbonUnitsatyeart=t2−t1(VCU)VCUtVCUAUDef=NumberofpotentialVerifiedCarbonUnitsfromunplanneddeforestationatyeart=t2−t1(VCU)VCUAPDef=NumberofpotentialVerifiedCarbonUnitsfromplanneddeforestationatyeart=t2−t1(VCU)3Potentiallyaspartoftreeplanting,aquaculturalintensification,agriculturalintensification,fertilization,fodderproduction,othermeasurestoenhancecroplandand/orgrazinglandareas,leakagemanagementzonesoracombinationofthese13VM0048,v1.0VCUAUDeg=NumberofpotentialVerifiedCarbonUnitsfromunplannedforestdegradationatyeart=t2−t1(VCU)9MONITORING9.1DataandParametersAvailableatValidationRelevantparametersaredetailedwithinaccountingandothersourcemodules.9.2DataandParametersMonitoredRelevantparametersaredetailedwithinaccountingandothersourcemodules.9.3DescriptionoftheMonitoringPlan9.3.1DevelopmentofMonitoringPlanGeneralThemonitoringplanmustaddressthefollowingtasks:•Monitoringofprojectimplementation;•Monitoringofactualcarbonstockchangesandgreenhousegasemissions;•Monitoringofleakagecarbonstockchangesandgreenhousegasemissions;and•Estimationofexpostnetcarbonstockchangesandgreenhousegasemissions.Foreachofthesetasks,themonitoringplanmustincludethefollowinginformation:•Technicaldescriptionofthemonitoringtask;•Datatobecollected(dataandparameterstobecollectedmustbelistedintheprojectdescription);•Overviewofdatacollectionprocedures;•Qualitycontrolandqualityassuranceprocedures;•Dataarchiving;and•Organizationandresponsibilitiesofthepartiesinvolvedinalloftheabove.UncertaintyandQualityManagementAsfarasispractical,uncertaintiesrelatedtothequantificationofGHGemissionreductionsshouldbereduced.UncertaintiesarisingfrominputparameterswouldresultinuncertaintiesinestimatingbaselineandprojectnetGHGemissions–especiallywhereglobaldefaultfactorsareused.Theproject14VM0048,v1.0mustidentifycriticalparametersthatwouldsignificantlyinfluencetheaccuracyofestimates.Localvaluesspecifictotheprojectcircumstancesmustbeobtainedforthesekeyparameterswherepossible.Thesevaluesshouldbebasedon:•Citeddatafromwell-referencedpeer-reviewedliteratureorotherwell-establishedpublishedsources;•NationalinventorydataordefaultfactorsfromIPCCliteraturethathave,wherepossibleandnecessary,beencheckedforconsistencyagainstavailablelocaldataspecifictotheprojectcircumstances;or•Expertopinion,intheabsenceoftheabovesourcesofinformation.Expertswilloftenprovidearangeofdatavaluesandaproposedvalueforthedata.Therationaleforselectingaparticulardatavaluemustbedemonstrated.Inchoosingkeyparametersormakingimportantassumptionsbasedoninformationnotspecifictotheprojectcircumstances,suchasusingdefaultfactors,theprojectproponentmustselectvaluesthatwillleadtoanaccurateestimationofnetGHGemissionreductions,takingintoaccountuncertainties.Whereuncertaintyissignificant,4theprojectproponentmustchoosedatathatindisputablytendstounder-estimating,ratherthanover-estimating,netGHGprojectbenefits.ToensurethatGHGfluxesareestimatedinawaythatisaccurate,verifiable,transparentandconsistentacrossmeasurementperiods,theprojectproponentmustestablishanddocumentclearstandardoperatingproceduresandproceduresforensuringdataquality.Ataminimum,theseproceduresmustinclude:•Comprehensivedocumentationofallfieldmeasurementstakenintheprojectarea.Thisdocumentationmustbedetailedenoughtoallowreplicationofsamplingintheeventofstaffturnoverbetweenmonitoringperiods;•Trainingproceduresforallpeopleinvolvedinfieldmeasurementordataanalysis.Thescopeanddateofalltrainingmustbedocumented;•Aprotocolforassessingtheaccuracyofplotmeasurementsusingacheckcruiseandaplanforcorrectingtheinventorywhereerrorsarediscovered;•Protocolsforassessingdataforoutliers,transcriptionerrorsandconsistencyacrossmeasurementperiods;and•Safearchivingofdatasheetsforthelifetimeoftheproject.Datastoredinelectronicformatsmustbebackedup.4InlinewiththeVCSMethodologyRequirements,uncertaintyisdeemedsignificantwhereitisexpectedtoexceed10percentoftheestimate.15VM0048,v1.0ExpertjudgmentTheuseofexpertjudgmentforselectingandinterpretingmethods,selectinginputdatatofillgapsinavailabledataandselectingdatafromarangeofpossiblevaluesoruncertaintyrangesareallwelldefinedintheIPCC2006GuidelinesforNationalGHGInventoriesandits2019Refinement.TheprojectproponentmustusetheguidanceprovidedinVolume1Chapter2ApproachestoDataCollection(inparticular,Section2.2andAnnex2A.1)oftheIPCC2019Refinementtothe2006IPCCGuidelinesforNationalGHGInventories.MonitoringofProjectImplementationInformationmustbeprovidedandrecordedtoestablishthefollowing:1)Thegeographicpositionoftheprojectboundaryisrecordedforallareasofland.Thegeographiccoordinatesoftheprojectboundary(andanystratificationorbufferzonesinsidetheboundary)areestablished,recordedandarchived.Thismaybeachievedbyfieldsurvey(e.g.,GPS)orgeo-referencedspatialdata(e.g.,maps,GISdatasets,orthorectifiedaerialphotographyorgeo-referencedremotesensingimages).Theabovealsoappliestostratarecording,includingstrataresultingfrompeatlandfiresintheprojectscenario.2)Commonlyacceptedprinciplesoflanduseinventoryandmanagementareimplemented.Standardoperatingprocedures(SOPs)andqualitycontrol/qualityassuranceproceduresforinventories,includingfielddatacollectionandmanagement,mustbeapplied.UseoradaptationofSOPsalreadyappliedinnationallandusemonitoringoravailablefrompublishedhandbooksorthelatestIPCCguidancedocumentsisrecommended.Theprojectplanandarecordoftheplanasimplementedduringtheprojectmustbeavailableforvalidationorverification,asappropriate.3)Themonitoringplanmustusethemethodsintherelevantmodule(s)(i.e.,AUDef,APDef,and/orAUDeg)tomonitorchangesinforestcoverandcarbonstockchanges.Allrelevantparametersfromthemodulesmustbeincludedinthemonitoringplan.9.3.2MonitoringExpostmonitoringmustaccomplishtwokeytasks:1)Monitoringaccordingtothemonitoringplan;and2)Revisingthebaselineforfutureprojectcreditingperiods.16VM0048,v1.0TASK1:MonitoringAccordingtotheMonitoringPlanMonitoringofKeyBaselineVariablesInformationrequiredtoperiodicallyreassesstheprojectbaselinemustbecollectedduringtheentireprojectcreditingperiod.Keyvariablestobemeasuredare:•Changesinforestcoverasspecifiedintherelevantaccountingmodules(e.g.,AUDef)•Spatialvariabledatasetsusedinmodeling,asspecifiedinrelevantaccountingmodules(e.g.,AUDef).Asaminimum,thevariablesusedinthefirstbaselineassessmentmustbemonitoredduringanyreassessments.•Carbonstockdata,whererequired,asspecifiedintherelevantaccountingmoduleMonitoringofLeakageAllsignificantsourcesofleakageidentifiedaresubjecttomonitoringfollowingtheproceduresoutlinedinthemonitoringplan.Suchproceduresmustbeconsistentwiththeapplicableleakagemodules.Themonitoringplanmustincludeallrelevantparametersintheleakagemodules.ReportingofParametersinEachMonitoringReportThefollowingvaluesmustbereportedusingtheunitinparentheses,eachwithanestimateofuncertainty,representingsamplingerrorasatwo-sided90percentconfidenceinterval:1)ForprojectsusingAUDef,theallocatedannualdeforestationareabystratum(hectaresforeachyearofthemonitoringperiod);2)Aggregateannualdeforestationareafortheverificationperiodintheprojectarea(hectaresperyear);3)Aggregateannualdeforestationareafortheverificationperiodintheleakagebelt(hectaresperyear);4)Aggregateannualemissionsfromdeforestationfortheverificationperiodandprojectarea(tonnesCO2eperyear);5)Aggregateannualemissionsfromdeforestationfortheverificationperiodandleakagebelt(tonnesCO2eperyear);and6)Averageemissionfactorfordeforestationfortheverificationperiodandovertheprojectarea(tonnesCO2eperhectare).AdditionalvaluesmaybeaddedasadditionalmodulesareaddedunderthisVM0048.TASK2:RevisingtheBaselineforFutureProjectCreditingPeriodsThemethodologicalproceduretoupdatethebaselinemustbethesameasinthefirstbaselineestimation.17VM0048,v1.010REFERENCESIPCC(2003).GoodPracticeGuidanceforLandUse,LandUseChangeandForestry.InstituteforGlobalEnvironmentalStrategies(IGES).IPCC(2006).2006IPCCGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventories.InstituteforGlobalEnvironmentalStrategies(IGES).IPCC(2019).2019Refinementtothe2006IPCCGuidelinesonNationalGreenhouseGasInventories.InstituteforGlobalEnvironmentalStrategies(IGES).Additionalreferencesmaybefoundinthemodulesreferencedthroughoutthismethodology.18VM0048,v1.0APPENDIX1:TESTINGSIGNIFICANCEOFGHGEMISSIONSThefollowingstepwiseproceduremustbeusedtotestthesignificanceofGHGemissions.ItisanadaptationoftheCDMToolfortestingthesignificanceofGHGemissionsinA/RCDMprojectactivities,v01.TheproceduremaybeusedtojustifytheomissionofpoolsandGHGsourceswithintheprojectboundaries,aswellastojustifytheomissionofGHGemissionsresultingfromleakagemitigationmeasures.ThesignificanceofGHGemissionsbysourceandcarbonstockchangesbypoolmustbeatminimumtestedexantetojustifytheprojectboundariesandatbaselinereassessment.ThesignificanceofleakageGHGemissionsmustbetestedexantefortheentirebaselinevalidityperiodandexpostforaspecificmonitoringperiod.1)Definetheperiodoverwhichthesignificancewillbetested(i.e.,eitherabaselinevalidityperiodforexanteestimatesoraspecificmonitoringperiodorannuallyforexpostestimates).2)Identifyandestimatethefollowingwhererelevant:a)GHGemissionsbysource(pereachsource)tobeincludedandtestedforthespecifiedperiod.Estimationmustbebasedonsite/project-specificdata,scientificpeer-reviewedliteratureand/orthemostrecentdefaultemissionfactorsprovidedbyIPCC.b)GHGemissionsattributabletonetcarbonstockchangesbypool(pereachpooltobeincludedandtested).Theestimationofnetcarbonstockchangesmustfollowthemethodologyandbeconsistentwiththebaselinescenarioandprojectactivities.Estimationmustbebasedonsite/project-specificdata,scientificpeer-reviewedliteratureand/orthemostrecentdefaultemissionfactorsprovidedbyIPCC.c)LeakageGHGemissionsbysourceattributabletotheprojectleakagemitigationmeasures(i.e.,netcarbonstockchangesinabove-andbelowgroundtreebiomass,emissionsassociatedwithbiomassburningandnitrogenapplication)thattheplannedleakagemitigationmeasuresareexpectedtocauseduringthefixedbaselineperiod.Estimationmustfollowsoundproceduresconsistentwithcalculationapproachesintheapplicableactivity-typemodule(s).Estimationmustbebasedonsite/project-specificdata,scientificpeer-reviewedliteratureand/orthemostrecentdefaultemissionfactorsprovidedbyIPCC.3)Whereneeded,converttheGHGemissionstoCO2eusing100-yearglobalwarmingpotential(GWP)valuesfromthelatestversionoftheVCSStandard.4)CalculatetherelativecontributionsoftheGHGemissionslistedinStep2a–caboveaccordingtothefollowingequation:19VM0048,v1.0𝐸𝐸𝑖𝑖𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝐸𝐸𝑖𝑖=∑𝐼𝑖𝑖𝐼=1𝐸𝐸𝑖𝑖(2)Where:=RelativecontributionofeachsourceitothesumofprojectandleakageGHG𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝐸𝐸𝑖𝑖emissions𝐸𝐸𝑖𝑖=GHGprojectandleakageemissionsforsourceiasestimatedunderStep2a–cabovei=IndexforindividualsourcesofprojectandleakageGHGemissionsduetoleakagemitigationmeasures(I=totalnumberofsourcesconsideredinStep1)5)RanktheGHGemissionsindescendingorderoftheirrelativecontributionsRCEiandorderthemaccordingtotheirranks(i.e.,thelowestemissionmustgetthehighestrankandmustoccupythelastpositionintheorderedsequenceofleakageemissions).6)StartcalculatingthecumulativesumoftherelativecontributionsRCEi(orderedaccordingtoStep5),beginningwiththelowestrank.Ceasethesummationwhenthecumulativesumreachesthelowestvaluenotlessthanthethresholdof0.95.TheGHGandprojectleakageemissionsbysourceexcludedfromthecumulativesuminStep6areconsideredinsignificantwheretheirtotalislowerthanfivepercentofnetanthropogenicGHGERRsintheprojectarea.Otherwise,theproceduredescribedinStep6mustbecontinuedbeyondthethresholdof0.95untilthisconditionismet.Evenwheretheyareinsignificant,projectproponentsmayincludeanyqualifyingsourcesandsinksintheprojectcase.ForthepurposesoftestingGHGemissionssignificance,thenetGHGERRsmustbecalculatedbeforediscountingthecumulativeGHGemissionsresultingfromleakage(i.e.,beforediscountingΔCLK-UDef,t).Significancetestcalculationsmustbesummarizedintheprojectdescriptionormonitoringreportsanddetailedinacalculationspreadsheettobesharedwiththevalidation/verificationbodyandVerra.20VM0048,v1.0DOCUMENTHISTORYVersionCommentv1.027Nov2023Initialversion21
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