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The State of Climate Action:

Major Course Correction

Needed from +1.5% to −7%

Annual Emissions

WHITE PAPER

NOVEMBER 2023

In collaboration with

Boston Consulting Group

Images: Getty Images

reserved. No part of this publication may

be reproduced or transmitted in any form

or by any means, including photocopying

and recording, or by any information

storage and retrieval system.

Disclaimer

This document is published by the

World Economic Forum as a contribution

to a project, insight area or interaction.

The ﬁndings, interpretations and

conclusions expressed herein are a result

of a collaborative process facilitated and

endorsed by the World Economic Forum

but whose results do not necessarily

represent the views of the World Economic

Forum, nor the entirety of its Members,

Partners or other stakeholders.

Contents

Forewords 3

Executive summary 4

1. Without much more dramatic action, 1.5°C will slip out of reach 5

2. National commitments and policies are still widely insufﬁcient 8

3. Corporate climate action is progressing far too slowly 10

4. Green technologies and infrastructure are not scaling fast enough 12

5. The climate funding gap remains enormous 14

6. Mitigation action needs to drastically step up 16

Conclusion 17

Contributors 18

Endnotes 19

The State of Climate Action: Major Course Correction Needed from +1.5% to −7% Annual Emissions 2

Forewords

Pim Valdre Head of Climate

Ambition Initiatives, World

Economic Forum

Patrick Herhold

Managing Director and Senior

Partner, Center for Climate

and Sustainability, Boston

Consulting Group

The State of Climate Action:

Major Course Correction Needed from +1.5% to −7% Annual Emissions

November 2023

The State of Climate Action: Major Course Correction Needed from +1.5% to −7% Annual Emissions 3

The picture that comes out of this white paper is in

line with the ﬁndings described in the UN’s global

stocktake report: we face a drastic gap in climate

action, taking us further from the 1.5°C path by

the day.1 This situation leaves us with no choice

but to double down on mitigation, focusing on

three imperatives for all actors. First, all countries

and companies should shift immediately towards

delivering shorter-term targets and actions and

making their net-zero transition plans public.

Second, climate actions, funding and global

coalitions should rigorously prioritize solutions

that promise immediate outsized impact, such as

value-chain decarbonization partnerships, faster

deployment of the most mature technologies – for

example, solar photovoltaics (PV), wind and electric

vehicles (EVs) – and related grid infrastructure and

reductions in methane emissions. Finally, we must

ensure a just transition, based on various levels

of economic and social capabilities, adaptation

challenges and responsibility, so that no one is

left behind.

Without far more dramatic action, 1.5°C will slip

out of reach and even “well under 2°C” will be at

high risk. A 1.5°C path now calls for reductions

in emissions of 7% every year until 2030; this is

more than the impact from COVID-19 and against

the current trend of a 1.5% annual increase. To

avoid catastrophic impacts on livelihoods and

economies, we need to drastically step up national

commitments and policies, corporate climate

action, green-technology scaling and funding.

/20

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IncollaborationwithBostonConsultingGroupTheStateofClimateAction:MajorCourseCorrectionNeededfrom+1.5%to−7%AnnualEmissionsWHITEPAPERNOVEMBER2023Images:GettyImagesContentsForewords3Executivesummary41.Withoutmuchmoredramaticaction,1.5°Cwillslipoutofreach52.Nationalcommitmentsandpoliciesarestillwidelyinsufficient83.Corporateclimateactionisprogressingfartooslowly104.Greentechnologiesandinfrastructurearenotscalingfastenough125.Theclimatefundinggapremainsenormous146.Mitigationactionneedstodrasticallystepup16Conclusion17Contributors18Endnotes19DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.©2023WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.TheStateofClimateAction:MajorCourseCorrectionNeededfrom+1.5%to−7%AnnualEmissions2November2023TheStateofClimateAction:MajorCourseCorrectionNeededfrom+1.5%to−7%AnnualEmissionsForewordsPimValdreHeadofClimateAmbitionInitiatives,WorldEconomicForumThepicturethatcomesoutofthiswhitepaperisincoalitionsshouldrigorouslyprioritizesolutionslinewiththefindingsdescribedintheUN’sglobalthatpromiseimmediateoutsizedimpact,suchasstocktakereport:wefaceadrasticgapinclimatevalue-chaindecarbonizationpartnerships,fasteraction,takingusfurtherfromthe1.5°Cpathbydeploymentofthemostmaturetechnologies–fortheday.1Thissituationleavesuswithnochoiceexample,solarphotovoltaics(PV),windandelectricbuttodoubledownonmitigation,focusingonvehicles(EVs)–andrelatedgridinfrastructureandthreeimperativesforallactors.First,allcountriesreductionsinmethaneemissions.Finally,wemustandcompaniesshouldshiftimmediatelytowardsensureajusttransition,basedonvariouslevelsdeliveringshorter-termtargetsandactionsandofeconomicandsocialcapabilities,adaptationmakingtheirnet-zerotransitionplanspublic.challengesandresponsibility,sothatnooneisSecond,climateactions,fundingandgloballeftbehind.PatrickHerholdManagingDirectorandSeniorPartner,CenterforClimateandSustainability,BostonConsultingGroupWithoutfarmoredramaticaction,1.5°Cwillslipthecurrenttrendofa1.5%annualincrease.Tooutofreachandeven“wellunder2°C”willbeatavoidcatastrophicimpactsonlivelihoodsandhighrisk.A1.5°Cpathnowcallsforreductionseconomies,weneedtodrasticallystepupnationalinemissionsof7%everyyearuntil2030;thisiscommitmentsandpolicies,corporateclimatemorethantheimpactfromCOVID-19andagainstaction,green-technologyscalingandfunding.TheStateofClimateAction:MajorCourseCorrectionNeededfrom+1.5%to−7%AnnualEmissions3ExecutivesummaryAs1.5°Cisslippingoutofreach,achievingitnow–Morethanhalfofclimatefundingneedsarestillcallsfora7%annualemissionsreduction,moreunmet,withcriticalgapsinearlytechnologiesthantheclimatereductionimpactfromCOVID-19andinfrastructureparticularlyacute,andtheandagainstthecurrenttrendofa1.5%annualclimatefundinggaptwiceaslargeindevelopingincrease.Astherequiredpathgetssteeper,economiesasindevelopedones.progressisstillwidelyinsufficientinallaspects:Ifthedecarbonizationtrajectorydoesnotchange,–Only35%ofemissionsarecoveredbyaadaptationeffortswillnotbeenoughtocopewithnationalnet-zerocommitmentby2050,andthefutureissuestheworldissteeringtowardsforonly7%bycountriesthatcomplementboldlargepartsofhumanityandnature.Whether1.5°Ctargetswithambitiouspolicies.remainsachievableornot,everytenthofadegreemattersgreatly,astheimpactsofclimatescale–Fewerthan20%oftheworld’stop1,000exponentially.Thereisthereforenochoicebuttocompanieshaveset1.5°Cscience-basedredoublemitigationeffortsdramatically.targets,and,basedontheNetZeroTracker,fewerthan10%alsohavecomprehensivepublicThetaskaheadisdaunting,butthispaper’sstarktransitionplans.2findingsmustbeusedasacatalysttostrengthenglobalresolveandimmediatelycorrectthecurrent–Technologiesthatareeconomicallyattractivecourse,shiftingfromincrementalactionstothosenoworwillbeinthenearfuturecanonlythatdeliveroutsizedimpact.achievejustoverhalfoftheemissionsreductionsneededtoreach1.5°C.TherestNote:Thisanalysisisbasedon1.5°Cscenariosarestillintheearlystagesofdevelopment,suchasbytheInternationalEnergyAgencyandrequiringgreaterinvestmentandpolicysupportIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangetotobecomeeconomicallycompetitive.provideexamplesofthegapandtheactionsrequired.TheStateofClimateAction:Majorcoursecorrectionneededfrom+1.5%to−7%annualemissions41Withoutmuchmoredramaticaction,1.5°CwillslipoutofreachAlreadychallengingadecadeago,thegoaloflimitingglobalwarmingto1.5°Cisnowpracticallyunreachable.LargepartsofEuropeandRussiahavealreadyof7%inglobalemissions–morethantheimpactwarmedbymorethan2°C,andtheArcticbyfromCOVID-19–everysingleyearuntil2030.Butmorethan4°C.Recordoceantemperaturesareemissionsthisyeararestillexpectedtoincreaseacceleratinginaviciouscycle.Atthispoint,limiting(seeFigures1and2).warmingto1.5°CwouldrequireanannualdeclineFIGURE1:Manycountriesandoceanareasarealreadymorethan2°Cwarmerthantheywere100yearsago2012–2022averagetemperatureanomalyvs.1900–1920:>4˚C>2˚C>1˚C>0.5˚C>0.2˚C>-0.2˚C>-0.5˚CNote:LimitedprecisiondataforChina,Mongolia,SaudiArabia,Iran,AfricaandSouthAmerica;insufficientdatatoderiveanestimatefortheRepublicoftheCongoandAntarctica.Source:NASAGoddardInstituteforSpaceStudiessurfacetemperatureanalysis;BCGanalysisTheStateofClimateAction:Majorcoursecorrectionneededfrom+1.5%to−7%annualemissions5Climatechangeishere,itisterrifying,anditisjustthebeginning.Theeraofglobalwarminghasended;theeraofglobalboilinghasarrived.…Itisstillpossibletolimitglobaltemperatureriseto1.5°Candavoidtheveryworstofclimatechange,butonlywithdramatic,immediateclimateaction.Wehaveseensomeprogress–arobustrolloutofrenewablesandsomepositivestepsfromsectorssuchasshipping–butnoneofthisisgoingfarenoughorfastenough.Acceleratingtemperaturesdemandacceleratedaction.AntónioGuterres,Secretary-General,UnitedNations,27July2023FIGURE2:Tostaybelow1.5°C,emissionsneedtocomedownby7%peryear–buttheyarecurrentlyincreasingby1.5%Globalnetanthropogenicgreenhousegasemissionsandpathways(GtCO2eperyear)70+1.5%p.a.2011-2021Implementedpolicies:60+3.2°Cby210015040-7.0%p.a.CommittedNDCs:+2.0%p.a.2021-2030+2.4°C21950-2011-5.8%p.a.+2.0°Cpath3302030-2050+1.5°Cpath320withno/limitedovershoot101930194019501960197019801990200020102020203020402050Notes:Thelightbluelineplotsegmentrepresentsestimatesfor2020–2021,extrapolatedfromIPCC's2019data;NDCs=nationallydeterminedcontributions;p.a.=peryear;1.IPCCmedianprojection,5thto95thpercentilerange:2.2°Cto3.5°C,atmediumconﬁdence;2.ClimateActionTracker'smedianprojection:3.IPCCmedianprojection.Source:IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange;PotsdamInstituteforClimateImpactResearch;ClimateActionTracker;BCGanalysisThemeasuresneededtocounterthistrendareinevitabletocountertheserisks,theywillbecomedramatic,andtheymusthappenonaglobalscalemoreexpensiveandlesseffectivewithevery(seeFigure3).Butthe1.5°Cambitionissetbyincrementalincreaseintemperature.A2023studyscience,notpolitics.Everytenthofadegreeaboveoftendevelopingcountriesfoundthatby20301.5°Cwillmovehumanityoutofsafeoperatingeachcountry’sadaptationcostswouldrisebyspaceandwillcomeatanincreasingcosttoaround60%to260%at3.5°Ccomparedto1.5°C,3ecosystems,economiesandhumanwell-being.andresidualclimate-relatedlosseswouldalsoAndalthoughadaptationandresilienceeffortsareescalatesignificantly.TheStateofClimateAction:MajorCourseCorrectionNeededfrom+1.5%to−7%AnnualEmissions6FIGURE3:Reaching1.5°Cwouldrequireswift,significantaction:selectedexamplesAllcoalandoilpowerNonewunabatedNonewICEcarsNonewfossil-fuelledDeforestationendedbyplantsclosedby2040demand-sidefossilfrom2035boilersfrom20252025assetsfrom20301YearlynewbuildwindSAFcapacity>10%of100%ofnewbuildingsAgricultureandland-andsolarx4by20306GtCO2capturedbydemandby2030“zero-carbon-ready”3byusechangeemissions2050(40Mttoday)2(0.1%today)2030(<1%today)reducedby50%by2030Notes:1.Referstoindustrialassetsonly;2.Includescarboncapture,utilizationandstorageanddirectaircapture;3.Zero-carbon-readybuildingsarehighlyenergyefficientanduseeitherdirectrenewableenergyoranenergysupplythatcanbefullydecarbonizedby2050(e.g.electricity,districtheat).Source:IllustrationbasedonInternationalEnergyAgencyNetZeroby2050Scenario;UnitedNationsHigh‑LevelExpertGroup;IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeThereforemitigationmustaccelerate.Greenasharpcoursecorrectionfromthecurrentleveltechnologiesmustscalemuchfaster.Countries,ofaction,whichisinsufficientinallrespects(seecorporationsandinvestorscollectivelyneedtoFigure4).domuchmore,muchmorequickly.ThismeansFIGURE4:Acrossallmajordimensions,progressisinsufficientCountriesCompaniesTechnologiesFinancing~35%<20%~55%<50%ofemissionscoveredbyoftop1,000companieswithofmitigationneededby2050ofclimateﬁnancingneedsanationalnet-zero1.5°Cscience-basedcoveredbytechnologiesthatcovered,withmajorgapsincommitmentby2050,targets,and<10%alsowithaarecost-competitiveorsoonearlytechnologiesandincluding<10%withcomprehensivepublicwillbe3infrastructureandinextensivepolicies1transitionplan2developingcountries4Source:1.NetZeroTracker;ClimateWatch;ClimateActionTracker;1.5°Cnationalpathwayexplorer;IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange;InternationalEnergyAgency;PoweringPastCoalAlliance;GlasgowDeclaration;WorldBank;EuropeanHeatPumpAssociation;Climatepolicydatabase.2.CDPdata(2018–2021);GlasgowFinancialAllianceforNetZero(2023);NetZeroTracker(2023);Reﬁnitiv(2023);ScienceBasedTargetsinitiative(2023).3.InternationalEnergyAgency;IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange;LenaHöglund-Isakssonetal.,“TheRoleofAnthropogenicMethaneEmissionsinBridgingtheEmissionsGap”,inEmissionsGapReport2021:TheHeatIsOn,pp.47–55;deskresearch.4.InternationalEnergyAgency;UNEnvironmentProgramme;ClimatePolicyInitiative;WorldBank;OECD;SAFInvestorTheStateofClimateAction:MajorCourseCorrectionNeededfrom+1.5%to−7%AnnualEmissions72NationalcommitmentsandpoliciesarestillwidelyinsufficientAsofmid-2023,theshareoftotalglobalemissionscoveredbynationalnet-zerotargetsexceeded80%–upfromvirtuallyzeroonlyafewyearsago–butveryfewcountriesarecurrentlyontracktoachieve1.5°C.Althoughgreatstrideshavebeenmade,keycommittingtoshort-termactionclosetowhatiscountriesstillstretchtheirambitionsforfartoolong,required.Thesharewithrelativelyambitiouspoliciescommittofartoolittleprogressthisdecadeortoimplementthisactionstandsatbelow10%(seestruggletocreatestrongimplementationplanstoFigure5).Evensomeoftheseareatriskofbeingachievethetargetstheyhaveset.dialledback,asexemplifiedbytheUK’splantograntmorethan100newoilandgasextractionDespitethesubstantialincreaseinnationalnet-zerolicences,France’sinabilitytoachieveits2023commitments,onlyathirdofglobalemissionsarerenewablestarget,thetemporaryresurgenceofcoveredbyanet-zerotargetfor2050–theroughcoalpowerinEuropefollowingRussia’sinvasionofdaterequiredfora1.5°Cpathway.ThegapisevenUkraine,andtheUSAreachinganall-time-highoilmoresignificantthisdecade,asonly20%arealsooutputin2023andallowingdrillingintheArctic.4FIGURE5:Veryfewcountriesarecurrentlyontracktoachieve1.5°CNonet-zerocommitmentNationalnet-zerocommitment…at/before2050...and…and2030NDCextensivepoliciescloseto1.5°C-aligned1implemented216%ofemissions49%ofemissions15%ofemissions13%ofemissions7%ofemissions102countries14countries41countries14countries22countries+92countries+31countries+12countriesRelativesizeofgreenhouse-gasemissionsNotes:Basedon193UNmembercountries,excludingemissionsfromlanduse,land-usechangeandforestryandinternationalaviationandshipping;NDC=nationallydeterminedcontribution;1.Country’sunconditional2030nationallydeterminedcontributiondeliversatleast75%of1.5°C-compatiblereduction;2.Countryhasimplementedatleastacoalban,internalcombustionengineban,emissions-tradingschemes/taxandonekeypolicyperemissionsector(energysystems,transport,industry,buildingsandagriculture,forestryandlanduse).Source:NetZeroTracker;ClimateWatch;ClimateActionTracker;1.5°Cnationalpathwayexplorer;IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange;InternationalEnergyAgency;PoweringPastCoalAlliance;GlasgowDeclaration;WorldBank;EuropeanHeatPumpAssociation;ClimatePolicydatabase;BCGanalysisTheStateofClimateAction:MajorCourseCorrectionNeededfrom+1.5%to−7%AnnualEmissions8Climatechangeisaglobalproblem,andaddressingontracktoovershootthe1.5°Cpathby300itisasharedresponsibility,butafewindividualgigatonnes(Gt)until2050:China,India,Russia,countriescarryahigherresponsibilitythanothers.IndonesiaandIran.5ThisrepresentsalmosthalftheOfthetenlargestemitters(responsibleforaroundglobalovershootbasedonallnationalcommitments65%ofcurrentglobalemissions),fivearejointly(seeFigure6).6FIGURE6:Despitenationalcommitments,the“carbondebt”isrisingCumulativegapbetweennationalcommitments1and1.5°C“technical”paths1Gapvs.“fairshare”1.5°Cpath2NetGtCO2eperyear,top10largestemitters,excludinglanduse,land-usechangeandforestryClimateActionTracker’sfairsharelensshowshigher-incomecountrieshaveagreaterroletoplayBrazil564Mexico5Japan61122USA13EU2785Iran31IndonesiaRussia35India9064China24183491618720192025203020352040204520502050Notes:1.2030nationalcommitmentsdataisbasedonunconditionalnationallydeterminedcontributionsonly;technicalpathsreﬂecttechnicalmitigationpotential,regardlessofresponsibility,capabilityorequality;2.BasedonClimateActionTracker'sfairshareratingsystem,splittingmitigationeffortsbasedoncountries'capabilities,historicalresponsibilityandequality(percapitaorGDP).Source:NetZeroTracker;ClimateWatch;ClimateActionTracker;1.5°Cnationalpathwayexplorer;IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange;BCGanalysisButitisessentialtoalsoconsiderpastcontributionssubstantiallychangesthepicture,makingthetotheaccumulationofgreenhousegasesintheEUandtheUSA,alongsideChina,roughlyatmosphere,whichhavefuelledalargerdebateequallyresponsibleforreducingtheovershoot.aboutclimatejustice.TheClimateActionTrackerThishighlightstheneedfordevelopednationshasattemptedtoaddresstheseconsiderations(especiallytheUSAandEUcountries),whichwitha“fairshare”perspective.Byfactoringintheareresponsibleforthelargestshareofhistoricalweightofhistoricalresponsibilityandeconomicemissions,tosignificantlyincreasetheirfinancialcapability,itprovidesametricsimilarto“financialandtechnicalsupporttodevelopingcountriesforresponsibility”foremissionsreductions.Thistheglobaltransition.TheStateofClimateAction:MajorCourseCorrectionNeededfrom+1.5%to−7%AnnualEmissions93CorporateclimateactionisprogressingfartooslowlyOnthecorporateside,progressinrecentyearshasbeenpositive,butmuchmoreisneeded.Thetotalnumberofcompanieswithcommitmentstargetsandactualemissionsreductionsinlinetoscience-basedtargetsmorethansextupledfromwith1.5°Cover2018–2021.8Despitesometheendof2020toAugust2023.7Buthere,too,thediscrepancies,thispictureholdstrueforallcurrenttrajectoryisentirelyinadequate.Asignificantsectors,callingformuchmoreambitiousactionshareoflargecorporations–especiallyoutsideacrosstheboard(seeFigure7).Westerncountries–havenotyetsettargets.Wheretheyhavedoneso,thetargetsareoftenEvenmanytopperformersareonlytakingtheinsufficientinscope,magnitudeorfollow-through.firststeps.Amongtherespondentstothe2022Manycompaniesalsolackacredible,coherentCarbonDisclosureProjectsurveythatdecreasedandtransparenttransitionplanforachievingtheirtheiremissionsin2021,mostlimitedtheireffortstargets.Inthiscontext,managementteamsandto“no-regret”levers9suchasenergyefficiencyboardmembershavearesponsibilitytoensure(with35%citingitamongtheirreasonsforreducedsufficientfocusonclimateimpactsandaction.emissions)andusingrenewablepower(71%).10Leverssuchaselectrifyingvehicles,buildingsandAsofAugust2023,fewerthan20%oftheworld’sfactories(2%)andusinglessmaturetechnologiestop1,000companieshadscience-basedtargets(below0.5%)stillcontributedverylittle.Ifprogressalignedwitha1.5°Cpathway–andalmost40%istobeaccelerated,morecompaniesneedtohadnonet-zerocommitmentatall.Amere2%investinhardersolutions,asdescribedinthenextamongthesealsohadbothcomprehensive,section–andthatentailsmorefinancialtrade-offspubliclydisclosedtransitionplanstoreachtheandinvestments.TheStateofClimateAction:Majorcoursecorrectionneededfrom+1.5%to−7%annualemissions10FIGURE7:Fewerthan20%ofthetop1,000companieshaveset1.5°Cscience-basedtargetsDataasreportedbyCDP,SBTiandNetZeroTracker(July2023)Nonet-zerotargetorcommitment1Net-zerotarget1DisclosureScience-basedtargetorcommitment1…and1.5°C-alignedtarget2toCDP…andpublictransitionplan3…andemissionsreduction>5.1%4Numberofcompanies%companies39%14%28%11%6%2%62%1,000acrossallsectorsTelecom11%7%15%48%7%11%67%27Apparel25%50%25%83%1223%30%Biotech,healthcare9%21%13%4%59%56andpharma29%6%34%15%30%7%28%20%14%2%66%87Food,beveragesandagriculture11%4%74%127ServicesTransport32%13%41%7%7%68%71Retail46%11%28%9%7%54%46Financialinstitutions39%22%27%10%63%136Energy47%15%27%5%4%2%55%186Manufacturing36%27%31%3%3%66%77Materials45%22%23%6%5%63%10967%6%6%Constructionand5%15%36%66engineeringNotes:1.ScienceBasedTargetsinitiativeand/orNetZeroTracker;GlasgowFinancialAllianceforNetZero;2.TargetcoveringScopes1and2,andScope3ifitaccountsformorethan40%oftotalemissions;3.Publiclydisclosedplanscoveringallrelevantscopesand/ormeasuringtheexpectedimpactofactionstomeetthetargetasassessedbytheNetZeroTracker;4.Compoundannualreductionofmorethan5.1%over2018–2021(IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange2018–20301.5°Cpath),basedonCDP,orReﬁnitivifnopublicdisclosureonCDP.Source:CDPdata,2018–2021;GlasgowFinancialAllianceforNetZero,2023;NetZeroTracker,2023;Reﬁnitiv,2023;ScienceBasedTargetsinitiative,2023;BCGanalysisTheStateofClimateAction:MajorCourseCorrectionNeededfrom+1.5%to−7%AnnualEmissions114GreentechnologiesandinfrastructurearenotscalingfastenoughAchievingnet-zeroemissionswillrequireafundamentaltransitioninthewaysthatenergy,materialsandfoodareconsumedandproduced–andcrucially,itmusthappenfast.Thepathtoachievingnet-zeroemissionsisnowandbatteriesthatwouldhaveseemedapipedreamwelldescribed,butkeygreentechnologiesarenotatthestartofthecentury.Virtuallyalltechnologiesscalingfastenough.neededtoachievenet-zeroemissionsalreadyexist,buttheyareatverydifferentlevelsofmaturity.HumaningenuityhasalreadyachievedimpressiveAsaresult,technologiesthatarealready,orwillprogressincriticaltechnologiessuchaswind,solarsoonbe,economicallyviable–especiallyefficiencyFIGURE8:Mostrequiredgreentechnologiesexist,butonlyaround55%areorwillsoonbecost-competitiveGlobalgreenhouse-gasmitigationrequiredby2050toreach1.5°C,splitbysectorandtechnology1%ofnetGtCO2ep.a.CCUS/bioenergy/hydrogen/ammonia3%DietaryRES/BiogasfromMSWMSWrecyclingIncinerationWastewaterbiogas~5%shiftsbioenergy2Geothermal,solarthermalandmarineBehaviourchangeNuclearLow-carbonfuelsforCCUSDACaviation/shippingHydropower4%~30%4%MajorcostHydrogenAvoidedHeatdisadvantageBioenergywithdeforestationpumpsBECCS,biocharBioenergy/other~10%BEV/FCheavytrucksfuelshiftsMinorcost6%3%disadvantage3%HeatelectriﬁcationEnergyefﬁciency/renovation~55%SolarPVandwindCost-competitiveLight-dutyEVs4%AgriculturalorwillbesoonReforestationpracticesF-gasalternativesEnergy/materialefﬁciency31%10%4%4%3%3%PowerandheatTransportIndustryAFOLUBuildingsWaste3SequestrationNotes:Cost-competitivenessisgaugedincomparisontotoday'shighgreenhouse-gasreference,includingcapexandopex,andmeasuredforthedirectowneroftheasset(asopposedtoend-userprice,forexample);AFOLU=agriculture,forestryandlanduse;BECCS=bioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage;BEV/FC=batteryelectricvehicle/fuelcell;CCUS=carboncapture,utilizationandstorage;DAC=directaircapture;EVs=electricvehicles;MSW=municipalsolidwaste(includingindustrial);PV=photovoltaic;RES=renewableenergysources;1.Annualemissionsatprojected2050level,currentcost-competitiveness;2.Forheatingonly;3.Excludingagriculturalwaste.Source:InternationalEnergyAgency;IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange;LenaHöglund-Isakssonetal.,“TheRoleofAnthropogenicMethaneEmissionsinBridgingtheEmissionsGap”,inEmissionsGapReport2021:TheHeatIsOn,pp.47–55;deskresearch;BCGanalysisTheStateofClimateAction:MajorCourseCorrectionNeededfrom+1.5%to−7%AnnualEmissions12technologies,renewablepowerandEVs–canhappenwithinoneassetgeneration.Thismeansdeliverjustoverhalfofthedecarbonizationrequired.alltechnologiesmuststartscalingimmediatelyonCritically,however,nearlyhalfofthetechnologiesagloballevel,regardlessofeconomicsormaturity.neededarenotyetcost-competitiveoraretooRightnow,theearly-stagetechnologiesrequiredforexpensiveformostemitterstouse(seeFigure8).deepdecarbonization–suchashydrogen;carboncapture,utilizationandstorage(CCUS);anddirectToreachorgetclosetonetzeroby2050,theshiftaircapture(DAC)–inparticularstillfallwellshortoftolowergreenhouse-gas-emittingsolutionshastothecostsandscaleneeded(seeFigure9).FIGURE9:Early-stagetechnologiesareexpectedtoremainsmallinscaleuntil2030CapacityperyearGreensteel1,2CCUS-equippedSustainableDirectairHydrogenIndustrialheat(Mt)cement2(Mt)aviationfuelcapture3electrolysisfromrenewable(MtCO2)electricity4(EJ)(Bnlitres)(GW)2022existing<1<0.5<0.5~0.01~1<12030<70<20<15<5<330<10plannedvs.requiredIEANetZeroScenario~130~370~40~80~590~15x2vs.planx19vs.planx2-3vs.planx16vs.planx1-2vs.planx1-2vs.planNotes:CCUS=carboncapture,utilizationandstorage;EJ=exajoules;GW=gigawatts;Mt=megatonnes;1.H2-DRI/CCUS-equipped,excludingscrap;2.Includesplanstotransitionovertime;3.Onlyprojectsinadvanceddevelopment;4.Planned=IEA’sstatedpoliciesscenario.Source:IllustrationbasedonInternationalEnergyAgency;companywebsites;SAFInvestor;BCGanalysisTocatchup,innovationandindustrialscalingneedtechnologiesaresofarscalingasfastasisneeded.toaccelerateatnearlyunprecedentedlevels.IttookTheannualadditionsofEVsandzero-carbon-readyaround30yearsfromdevelopingthefirstprototypebuildingsurfaceareasespeciallyarenotontrackofsolarPVandEVLi-ionbatteriestoreachat-scalewiththeInternationalEnergyAgency’snet-zeromarketdeployment.Fornewtechnologiessuchscenario–requiring,respectively,asevenfoldandascementCCUS,DACandsolid-statebatteries,ninefoldincreaseby2030.12Substantialskillsgapsthisfigureneedstohalve.11Thisisnotimpossible–areasignificantfactorslowingthemdown.ForCOVID-19vaccinesweredevelopedandintroducedinstance,outofthe480,000-plusworkersneededinlessthanatenthoftheusualtimeframe–butgloballyfrom2021to2025toimplementplanneditwillrequiretheworldtotreatclimatechangewindcapacityadditions,only150,000hadbeenmorelikethelife-threateningcrisisthatitisandtrainedbytheendof2021.13Morethan600,000incentivize,investandscaleaccordingly.newjobsarealsoneededby2030toachievetheEU’ssolarstrategy.14Agoodillustrationofthetechnology-scalingchallengeisthefactthatnotalleconomicallyviableTheStateofClimateAction:MajorCourseCorrectionNeededfrom+1.5%to−7%AnnualEmissions135TheclimatefundinggapremainsenormousInpartbecauseofallofthefactorsnotedinthisreport,theclimatefundinggapishuge.In2022morethanhalfoftheroughly$4trillionpolicysupport.Thisresultsespeciallyincriticalinannualclimatefinancingneedswereunmet,underfundingofearly-stagetechnologiessuchwithgapsacrossallsectors(seeFigure10).asbioenergy,hydrogen,sustainableaviationfuelInvestorsseemparticularlyreluctanttofundclimate(SAF),CCUSandbatterystorage,whichcollectivelytechnologiesthatcarryhighuncertainty,includingreceivedonlyaround2%oflastyear’sglobalunclearbusinesscases,timetomarketorfuturemitigationfunds.FIGURE10:Morethanhalfofannualclimatefinancingneedswereunmetin20222020–2025averageyearlyﬁnancingneedsvs.2022actualﬂows$trillionsperyearGapvs.requiredﬁnancing0.4-0.64.0-4.2Actualﬂows0.10.3-0.50.40.083.60.40.20.050.10.20.2>50%0.70.22.1-2.30.31.82.00.41.01.8<50%1.91.0PowerBuildingsTransportAgricultureandIndustryTotalAdaptationTotalclimatenature-basedmitigationﬁnanceNotes:Someﬁgureshavebeenroundedandtotalsmaynotmatchexactly.Source:IllustrationbasedonInternationalEnergyAgency;UNEnvironmentProgramme;ClimatePolicyInitiative;SAFInvestor;BCGanalysisSofar,publicfinancehasbeeninsufficienttofillgrowingtheirenergyinfrastructureandthegap.EvenintheUSA,wheretheInflationsimultaneouslyinvestmoreinadaptationReductionAct(IRA)ishighlightedasastepchangeandresilience,sincemanyofthemfaceinclean-energyfunding,theroughly$400billiondisproportionatethreatsfromrisingininvestmentsplannedacrossthenexttenyearstemperatures,allwhilefacingafinancinggaparedwarfedbytheroughly$5trillioninpandemictwiceaslargeasthatofdevelopedcountriesstimulusthatthecountryunlockedinamuch(seeFigure11).Andthisdisparityisgrowing:shortertimeframeduringCOVID-19.15from2019totheendof2023,around55%ofthegrowthinclean-energyinvestmentswilllikelyTheneedisevengreaterinlower-incomehavebeenconcentratedintheEU,theUSAandcountries.ThesemustdecarbonizewhileJapan,andaround35%inChina.16TheStateofClimateAction:MajorCourseCorrectionNeededfrom+1.5%to−7%AnnualEmissions14FIGURE11:Thefundinggapismorethantwiceaslargeindevelopingcountriesasitisindevelopednations2020–2025averageyearlyﬁnancingneedsvs.2022actualﬂows$trillionsperyear,includingmitigationandadaptationindevelopingcountriesGapvs.requiredﬁnancing0.14.0-4.20.12.1-2.3Actualﬂows0.4<0.012.0-2.20.20.21.2-1.4~60%0.81.50.6~40%1.90.8DevelopedcountriesDevelopingcountriesAgricultureandPrivate-sectorGlobalclimate(OECD+otherEU)nature-based1,2adaptation1ﬁnanceNotes:Someﬁgureshavebeenroundedandtotalsmaynotmatchexactly;1.Notallocatedatcountrylevel;2.Mitigationonly.Source:IllustrationbasedonInternationalEnergyAgency;UNEnvironmentProgramme;ClimatePolicyInitiative;SAFInvestor;WorldBank;OECD;BCGanalysisDevelopingcountriesaresubjecttolowerlevelsintensive.Forexample,thefinancingcostsofaofavailablecapitalandhigherperceivedrisks–utilitysolarPVplantinBrazil,IndiaorIndonesiaincludingfromcurrencyvolatility,unclearregulationsamountto50–60%oftheirlevelizedcostofenergyandpermitting,illiquidassets,inferiorgridquality(LCOE),vs.slightlymorethan20%intheEUandlimitedfinancialinformation.InvestorsthusandUSA.17Thegapisevenwiderforadaptation,tendtoexpectreturnsthataretoohighformanywhichoftenreliesmostlyonpublicfundingandclean-energyprojects,whichareoftencapex-internationalaid.TheStateofClimateAction:MajorCourseCorrectionNeededfrom+1.5%to−7%AnnualEmissions156MitigationactionneedstodrasticallystepupEvenif1.5°Csoonslipsoutofreach,avoidingtheworstconsequencesofclimatechangerequiresadramaticriseinmitigationaction.Thisurgencywouldonlyincreaseifthe2.0°Cor–Massivelyscalehigh-impacttechnologies2.5°Cthresholdswerecrossed.Muchhasbeenandnecessaryinfrastructure,leveragingIRAwrittenaboutpotentialsolutions,atopicthatwillorsimilarapproachestoaccelerateinvestmentbecoveredinthenextreport.Here,asetofclearinbotheconomicallyviabletechnologiesthatnear-termprioritiesarehighlighted–thesearehavethepotentialforoutsizedimpact(solarareaswhere,giventhechallenges,itwilllikelybePV,windandEVs)andearly-stageoptionsnecessarytogoevenfurther.thatneedtogettomarketmorequickly(greenhydrogen,SAFandCCUS).Near-termprioritiesinclude:–RaiseclimatefinancingfortheGlobalSouth,–Unlockbolder,morerapidnationalconditionalonambitiousmitigationactioncommitmentsandactions,inparticular–strengthenfundingfrombilateral(suchastorebuildtheenergyinfrastructure,engageJETPs19)andmultilateraldevelopmentbanks,high-emittingsectors,reducemethaneindrawmoreprivatecapital(forexample,throughlightofitslargeshort-termimpactandconcessionalfinanceandlegitimizedcreditingofimplementambitiousgovernmentgreen-investments,bygovernmentsandentitiessuchprocurementpractices.astheSBTi20)andchannelmorephilanthropicfundingintoclimate.Thismustgohandinhand–Leveltheplayingfieldfordecarbonizationwithwiderinternationalagreementsthatarethroughmechanismssuchascarbonpricing,beneficialtoallparties.emissions-tradingsystemsandcarbonborderadjustmentmechanisms(CBAM).Similarly,Eachoftheseelementsoffersasubstantialsupportboldeffortsinnature,foodandopportunityforimprovementwithgigatonne-levelagriculturerelatedtodeforestation,reforestationimpact,butnonewillbeeasytoimplementataandregenerativeagricultureinacoordinatedglobalscale,owingtotheinherentcomplexityofeffortwithclimateaction.theissues,combinedwithlocalandglobalpolitics,entrenchedinterests,fundingchallengesand–Strengthengovernmentactionstoremovedisconnectsbetweenwhopays,whobenefitsandobstaclestothetransition.Fast-trackhowtomeasurethebenefits.permitting,buildthenecessaryinfrastructureandsupplychains,supportinvestmentstoHowever,thecostofinactionisanevenlargerde-riskaccesstorawmaterials,andupskillthethreat.Astemperaturescontinuetoriseandaffectworkforce,especiallybyreskillingworkersfromcommunitiesaroundtheworld,theimpactofdelayfossil-basedindustries.willbecomeincreasinglyapparentacrosstheglobe–andnotjustinclimate-vulnerablecountries–and–Shiftcorporates’focustoboldertargetsforsowillthecostsandchallengesofactinglatertothemselvesandtheirsupplychains,andmakeupforanytimelost.alignactionstoachievethesetargets.ThisshouldincludegreatertransparencyinmaterialInthiscontext,muchmoredrasticmeasures–suchinvestments,risksandprogressalignedwiththeasincentivizingcompanieswith1.5°C-compliantnewISSBreportingframework,18adoptingclearemissions-reductiontargetsandplans(forintermediategoalsfor2030andsooner.Carbonexample,throughtaxbenefits),orevenmakingremovalshouldbeincludedwherepossibleand1.5°C-compliancecompulsoryforcompaniescountedtowardscompanies’goals,particularlydoingbusinessinagivencountryorregion–maywherereductionpathwaysareunlikelytomeetsoonbecomenecessary.Theregulatory,taxandnetzero.complianceburdensofactionstakenlaterarelikelytobeevengreateriftheemissionscurveisn’tbentsoon–andsubstantially.TheStateofClimateAction:MajorCourseCorrectionNeededfrom+1.5%to−7%AnnualEmissions16ConclusionTheprogressaccomplishedinrecentyearsishistoricinmanyregards,butitisstillinsufficient,andtheriskofbacktrackingremainsveryreal.Humankindisgettingdangerouslyclosetosettingoffonlycontinuetobecomemoredrasticaslongascascadingtippingpoints,threateningthefutureofthedecision-makerskeepunderdelivering.Acollectiveplanet.TheworldneedsmoreParismomentsandshiftinmindset,spurringpeopleintoactionataactionsthatcanmovetheneedleinthenearterm.levelthattrulymatchestheurgencyoftheclimateThiswillrequiremuchmorecollaborationacrosscrisis,isamongthemostimportantchangesneededcountries,companiesandsectorstoacceleratetonavigatetheroutetowardsaclimate-safeandactiontoday.Ifnot,thenecessarymeasureswillnature-positivefuture.TheStateofClimateAction:Majorcoursecorrectionneededfrom+1.5%to−7%annualemissions17ContributorsWorldEconomicForumBostonConsultingGroupPedroGomezJensBurchardtHeadofClimate,MemberoftheExecutiveManagingDirectorandPartnerCommitteeTrineFiltenborgdeNullyPimValdreProjectLeader;WorldEconomicForumFellowHeadofClimateAmbitionInitiativesPatrickHerholdManagingDirectorandSeniorPartnerRichLesserGlobalChairCorneliusPieperManagingDirectorandSeniorPartnerGalaadPréauConsultantBecketSalernoConsultantTheStateofClimateAction:MajorCourseCorrectionNeededfrom+1.5%to−7%AnnualEmissions18Endnotes1UnitedNations,TechnicalDialogueoftheFirstGlobalStocktake,8September2023:https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/sb2023_09_adv.pdf.2“Comprehensivepublictransitionplans”aredefinedaspubliclydisclosedplanscoveringallrelevantscopesand/ormeasuringtheexpectedimpactofactionstomeetthetarget,asassessedbytheNetZeroTracker:https://zerotracker.net/.3StandardChartered,TheAdaptationEconomy,2023:https://standardcharteredbank.turtl.co/story/the-adaptation-economy/page/1.ThetencountriescoveredareBangladesh,China,Egypt,India,Indonesia,Kenya,Nigeria,Pakistan,theUnitedArabEmiratesandVietNam.4“LaFrancenedevraitpasatteindresesobjectifsdedéveloppementdesénergiesrenouvelablesàlafinde2023”,LeMonde,24January2023:https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2023/01/24/la-france-ne-devrait-pas-atteindre-ses-objectifs-de-developpement-des-energies-renouvelables-a-la-fin-de-2023_6159100_3244.html;MattEgan,“UnderBiden,USOilProductionIsPoisedtoBreakTrump-EraRecords”,CNNBusiness,9August2023:https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/09/business/oil-production-biden-trump/index.html;EricMcDaniel,“BidenFramesHisCleanEnergyPlanasaJobsPlan,ObscuringHisRecordonClimate”,NPR,13July2023:https://www.npr.org/2023/07/13/1186854511/biden-climate-jobs-voters.5Thiscalculationisbasedon2030nationallydeterminedcontributions(NDCs)andnet-zerotargets;itexcludeslanduse,land-usechangeandforestry.6ThiscalculationisbasedontheClimateActionTracker’sestimatedglobalpathfromcommittedNDCsandlong-termpledges,includinglanduse,land-usechangeandforestry;ClimateActionTracker:https://climateactiontracker.org/.7ScienceBasedTargetsinitiative,“TargetDashboard(Beta)”,August2023:https://sciencebasedtargets.org/target-dashboard.8Thesenumbersreflectpubliclydisclosedplanscoveringallrelevantscopesand/ormeasuringtheexpectedimpactofactionstomeetthetarget,asassessedbytheNetZeroTracker:https://zerotracker.net/.9Thatis,changesthatarerelativelyeasytoimplementquicklyastheyaremorewidelyavailableandareusuallycheaperoronaparwithfossil-basedalternatives.10Thesefiguresapplyonlytocompaniesthatmadetheirresponsespublic;theyexcludereductionsduetomethodologychanges,mergersandacquisitions(M&A),unknowncauseornorationale.11InternationalEnergyAgency,EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2023,2023:https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2023.12Zero-carbon-readybuildingsarehighlyenergyefficientanduseeitherdirectrenewableenergyoranenergysupplythatcanbefullydecarbonizedby2050,suchaselectricityordistrictheat.13GlobalWindOrganisationandGlobalWindEnergyCouncil,GlobalWindWorkforceOutlook2021–2025,2021:https://gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Global-Wind-Workforce-Outlook-2021-2025.pdf.14SolarPowerEurope,EUMarketOutlookforSolarPower2022–2026,2022:https://www.solarpowereurope.org/insights/market-outlooks/eu-market-outlook-for-solar-power-2022-2026-2%23downloadForm#downloadForm.15AliciaParlapiano,DeborahB.Solomon,MadeleineNgoandStacyCowley,“Where$5TrillioninPandemicStimulusMoneyWent”,NewYorkTimes,11March2022:https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/03/11/us/how-covid-stimulus-money-was-spent.html.16InternationalEnergyAgency,ScalingUpPrivateFinanceforCleanEnergyinEmergingandDevelopingEconomies,2023:https://www.iea.org/reports/scaling-up-private-finance-for-clean-energy-in-emerging-and-developing-economies.Thesefiguresincludemitigationfundingforpower,buildings,transportandindustry;theyexcludeagricultureandnature-basedmitigation,andadaptationandresilience.17Ibid.“Levelizedcostofenergy”isdefinedastheaveragenetpresentcostofenergygenerationoverthelifetimeoftheasset,perunitofenergyproduction.18InternationalSustainabilityStandardsBoard:https://www.ifrs.org/groups/international-sustainability-standards-board/.19JETPstandsfor“justenergytransitionpartnership”,abilateralagreementbetweenadevelopingcountryandasetofdevelopedcountriestofinancethedecarbonizationofthecountryasawhole,involvingpublicandprivatefunds.20ScienceBasedTargetsinitiative:https://sciencebasedtargets.org/.TheStateofClimateAction:MajorCourseCorrectionNeededfrom+1.5%to−7%AnnualEmissions19TheWorldEconomicForum,committedtoimprovingthestateoftheworld,istheInternationalOrganizationforPublic-PrivateCooperation.TheForumengagestheforemostpolitical,businessandotherleadersofsocietytoshapeglobal,regionalandindustryagendas.WorldEconomicForum91–93routedelaCapiteCH-1223Cologny/GenevaSwitzerlandTel.:+41(0)228691212Fax:+41(0)227862744contact@weforum.orgwww.weforum.org

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