EnergytransitioninPoland2022Editionwww.forum-energii.euEnergytransitioninPolandELABORATION:MarcinDusiło–ForumEnergiiCOPYEDITING:BrienBarnettGRAPHICDESIGN:KarolKoszniecPHOTO:AndersJildén,UnsplashPUBLICATIONDATE:2April2022ForumEnergiiisaEuropean,interdisciplinarythink-tankfromPolandwhoseteamconsistsofexpertsworkinginthefieldofenergy.Wecombineexperiencegainedinbusiness,publicadministration,media,andsciencewithspecialistknowledgeinthefieldofenergy.ThemissionofForumEnergiiistoinitiatedialogue,proposeknowledge-basedsolutions,andinspireactionforajustandefficientenergytransitionthatleadstoclimateneutrality.AllForumEnergiianalysesareprovidedfreeofchargeandmaybereproduced,providedthesourceandauthorsareacknowledged.TABLEOFCONTENTS05Foreword(JoannaMaćkowiak-Pandera,PhD)06MainconlusionsGenerationcapacity07Achievablecapacityin202108Changesinachievablecapacityin2021ascomparedto2020Changesinachievablecapacityoverthelastdecade09ChangesinachievablerenewablecapacityoverthelastdecadeElectricityproduction10Electricityproductionin2021Changesinelectricitygenerationin2021ascomparedto202011ChangesinelectricitygenerationoverthelastdecadeChangesinrenewableelectricitygenerationoverthelastdecade12EnergybalanceBalanceofdomesticelectricityproductionandconsumption13Cross-borderexchangeofelectricityChangeinelectricitydemandversusGDP14ChangeinpeakpowerdemandEmissions153SpecificemissionsofprimaryenergyconsumptionSpecificemissionsofelectricitygeneration16StructureofgreenhousegasemissionsinPolandChangesingreenhousegasemissionsinPoland17181920212223242526APRIL2022EnergytransitioninPolandChangesingreenhousegasemissionsfromelectricityandheatgeneration2728Emissionsfromelectricityandheating,byfuel2930CarbondioxideemissionscoveredbytheETS3132CO2emissionallowanceprices;Poland’sincomefromtheirsale33Electricityprices3435ComparisonofSPOTelectricitypricesinneighbouringmarkets3637Comparisonofelectricitypricesinneighbouringmarkets-pricesforhouseholds3839Comparisonofelectricitypricesinneighbouringmarkets-industrialprices4041Powersectorfuels4243Tradebalanceofsteamcoal44454HardcoalbalanceinPoland46DomestichardcoalproductionAPRIL2022TradebalanceofnaturalgasNaturalgasbalanceinPolandDomesticnaturalgasproductionShareofimportsofenergyresourcesfromRussiaStructureofprimaryenergyconsumptionStructureofnaturalgasconsumptionStructureofsteamcoalconsumptionCoalandnaturalgaspricesForewordTheworldisn’tgivingusabreak.Aftertheextraordinarypandemicof2020whenenergydemandandcommoditypricesfelltorecordlows,2021wasaverydifferentyear.TheEUandglobaleconomiesbegantoacceleratemorethanexpected.Electricitydemandincreasedsignificantlyandindustrialproductiongrewrapidly.Gaspricesalsostartedtorise,whichwasreflectedinelectricitypricesacrossEurope.ThepriceofCO2emissionallowancesrose.AnenergycrisisbeganintheEuropeanUnionthatnobodyexpected.InPoland,westartedtoburnmorecoalagain.Forthefirsttimeinyears,thePolishenergymarketwasoneofthecheapestintheEU,thetrendofcross-borderflowsofelectricitywasreversed,andimportsdecreasedsignificantly.TheculminationofeventsforcingaredefinitionoftermsandanewsettingofprioritieswasRussia’sfull-scaleinvasionofUkraineonFebruary24,2022.Theanxietyofenergyconsumersaboutthefutureishigh.ThepriorityforPolandandotherEUcountrieshasbecomehowtomoveawayasquicklyaspossiblefromRussianenergyresources.Currently,about30%of5theKremlin’sbudgetrevenuesisfromthesaleofrawmaterials,whichinturnfinancestheRussianwarmachine.Despitetherapidlychangingexternalenvironment,marketvolatility,andrecordhighpricesofrawmaterials,renewablesourcesarestillbeingneglectedbyPolishdecision-makers.Althoughthephotovoltaicssectorisdeveloping,thedevelopmentofonshorewindenergyisstilleffectivelyblockedbyregulationsonsitingofwindturbines.Inourreportfor2021,wepresentthemostinterestingdataonenergy.Asalways,wearereadyfordiscussion.Yourssincerely,JoannaMaćkowiak-Pandera,PhDPresidentofForumEnergiiEnergytransitioninPolandMainconclusions•Shareofcoalinelectricitygenerationin2021increasedandisover72%.•Shareofrenewablesfelltoabout17%despiterecordproductionfromthesesources(30TWh).•In2021,arecordwassetinelectricityproduction(179.4TWh,+14%y/y)andconsumption(180.3TWh,+5.4%y/y).•Netelectricityimportswerethelowestin5years(at0.89TWh).•Availablecapacityincreasedby3.7GW(to53.5GW).•Capacityofconventionalunitshasremainedstableforyears;REScapacityisgrowing(+4.4GWy/y),especiallyphotovoltaics(+3.7GWy/y).6•Paceofexpansionandmodernisationofgenerationunitsisstillinsufficienttoensureenergysecurityinthefaceofplannedshutdownsintheconventionalpowergeneration.•DespitehighCO2prices,coal-firedgenerationwaslessexpensivethannaturalgas-firedgeneration,resultinginarecordincreaseintheuseofcoal-firedcapacityandadecreaseintheuseofnaturalgas-firedcapacity.•Forthefirsttimeinyears,wholesaleelectricitypricesinPolandwereamongthelowestinthispartofEurope.Thisresultedinhighexportsandproduction.•TheweightedaveragepriceofCO2in2021amountedto53.13euro/tCO2.Poland’srevenuefromthesaleofCO2allowanceswasmorethanPLN25billionin2021.•Naturalgasprices,andinturnalsoelectricityprices,haverisentorecordhighsacrosstheregion.Generationcapacity7EnergytransitioninPolandAchievablecapacityin2021•53.5GW-theachievablecapacityavailableattheendof2021.Thisis3.7GWmorethanayearearlier.•Shareofrenewableenergysources(RES)capacityincreasedto31%(from25%).NATURALGASOTHERINDUSTRIAL3,2GW0.6GW6,0%1.1%LIGNITEPUMPEDSTORAGEHYDRO8.4GW1.4GW1.0GW15.7%2.7%1.8%8RESONSHOREWIND16.7GW7.0GW31.3%13.1%HARDCOALBIOGAS23.1GW0.3GW43.2%0.5%BIOMASS0.8GW1.5%PHOTOVOLTAICS7.7GW14.3%OwnelaborationbasedonAREdata.Changesinachievablecapacityin2021ascomparedto2020•Thedecreaseinhard-coalpowerplantcapacityresultsfromtheshutdownof12units(twounitseachinthepowerplantsDolnaOdra,Rybnik,Łaziska,Łagisza,Siersza,andStalowaWola).•Theincreaseinlignite-firedplantcapacityisduetothecommissioningofanew496MWunitattheTurówpowerplant.•Thelargestincreaseincapacitywasinrenewableenergy,especiallyinprosumerphotovoltaics.4000MW37093000200091000678031124004126-1000-1023-2000HARDCOALLIGNITENATURALGASOTHERPUMPEDHYDROONSHOREBIOGASBIOMASSPHOTOVOLTAICSINDUSTRIALSTORAGEWINDOwnelaborationbasedonAREdata.EnergytransitioninPolandChangesinachievablecapacityoverthelastdecade•Conventionalcapacityhasfluctuatedbetween32GWand35GWforyears,withadeclineof0.7GWlastyearto35.3GW.•REScapacityhasquadrupledoverthedecade,from4.1GWin2012to16.7GWin2021.60GW5010403020102013201420152016201720182019202020210HARDCOALLIGNITERES2012NATURALGASOTHERINDUSTRIALPUMPEDSTORAGEOwnelaborationbasedonAREdata.Until2016,the„otherindustrial”categoryalsoincludescapacityinnaturalgasandhardcoal.Changesinachievablerenewablecapacityoverthelastdecade•Attheendof2021,16.7GWwasinstalledasRES,anincreaseof4.4GW(+36%y/y).•SolarPVcapacityincreasedby3.7GW(+94%y/y),reaching7.7GW.In2021,solarPVcapacitysurpassedthatofwindfarms.•RESdevelopmentin2021wasmainlydrivenbytherapidlygrowingnumberofprosumers,andtoalesserextent,byRESauctions.18GW20132014201520162017201820192020111614WATER20211210864202012ONSHOREWINDBIOGASBIOMASSPHOTOVOLTAICSOwnelaborationbasedonAREdata.EnergytransitioninPoland12ElectricityproductionElectricityproductionin2021•72.4%wastheshareofcoalinelectricitygenerationin2021–2.7p.p.morethanayearearlier.•Productionfromhardcoalreacheditshighestlevelin10yearsat84TWh(+1.4p.p.).•Productionfromnaturalgasfellby0.7TWh,whichtranslatedintoa1.6p.p.declineintheshareofgas.•Productionfromphotovoltaicsdoubledfrom2020to3.8TWh.•EnergyproductionfromallRESsourceslastyearamountedtoarecord30TWh.Despitethis,theshareofRESinthegenerationmixfellto16.7%(from17.7%in2020).NATURALGASHYDRO15.3TWhLIGNITE8.5%2.3TWh46.0TWh25.6%OTHERINDUSTRIAL1.3%133.0TWhHARDCOAL1.7%ONSHOREWIND84.0TWh16.5TWh46.8%PUMPEDSTORAGE9.2%0.8TWhOwnelaborationbasedonAREdata.0.4%BIOGAS1.3TWhRES0.7%30.4TWh16.9%BIOMASS4.7TWh2.6%BIOMASSCO-FIRING1.8TWh1.0%PHOTOVOLTAICS3.8TWh2.1%EnergytransitioninPolandChangesinelectricitygenerationin2021ascomparedto2020•Productionfromcoalandligniteincreasedby20.1TWhcomparedtothepandemicyear2020.Thisisaresultofincreasedelectricityexports,amongotherthings.Thelargescaleoftheincreaseisalsoduetolowproductionfromcoalin2020.•Coal-firedgenerationreplacedgas-firedplants,amongothers.Thelatterfellin2021forthefirsttimeinmorethan10yearsduetotheveryhighpriceofnaturalgas.•Amongrenewablesources,electricityproductionfromphotovoltaicsgrewmostdynamically(+95%y/y,+1.9TWh),whilebiomassco-firingrecordedthelargestdecline(-18%y/y).Productionfromwindfarmsincreasedby5%y/y.16000GWh1414000120001240410000772480006000400018692000224742540-2000-747-63-57-96-393HARDCOALLIGNITENATURALOTHERPUMPEDHYDROONSHOREBIOGASBIOMASSBIOMASSPHOTOVOLTAICSGASINDUSTRIALSTORAGEWINDCO-FIRINGOwnelaborationbasedonAREdata.Changesinelectricitygenerationoverthelastdecade•Domesticelectricityproductiontotalled179.4TWh.Thisrecordresultis14%higherthanin2020andisthefirstincreaseinelectricityproductionsince2017.•Theincreaseddemandforelectricitymostlyhasbeenmetbyanincreaseincoal-firedcapacitygeneration,especiallyfromhardcoal.200TWh2013201420152016201720182019202015180160LIGNITENATURALGASPUMPEDSTORAGERES20211401201008060402002012HARDCOALOTHERINDUSTRIALOwnelaborationbasedonAREdata.Until2016,the„otherindustrial”categoryalsoincludescapacityinnaturalgasandhardcoal.EnergytransitioninPolandChangesinrenewableelectricitygenerationoverthelastdecade•In2021,30.4TWhofelectricitywasgeneratedfromRES,whichis8.5%morethanin2020.•WindpowerwasresponsibleformorethanhalfoftheproductionfromRES(54%),withtheshareofbiomassat15%andphotovoltaicsat13%.•In10years,productionfromREShasincreasedby80%,from16.8TWhin2012to30.4TWhin2021.•ExcludingPV,thelargestincreaseinproductionwasseeninwindpower,at+250%inadecade.35TWh301625201510502013201420152016201720182019202020212012WATERONSHOREWINDBIOGASBIOMASSBIOMASSCO-FIRINGPHOTOVOLTAICSOwnelaborationbasedonAREdata.Energybalance17EnergytransitioninPolandBalanceofdomesticelectricityproductionandconsumption•Electricityproductionin2021wasthehighestinPolishhistoryat179.4TWh.•Electricitydemandwasalsoarecord180.3TWh.•Netimportsofelectricitywerethelowestin5years.•99.5%ofelectricitydemandwasmetbydomesticgeneration.185TWh1800.89TWh202117518170165160155150145201320142015201620172018201920202012PRODUCTIONCONSUMPTIONOwnelaborationbasedonAREdata.Grossconsumption(includingthepowerplant’sownneeds)isshown.Cross-borderexchangeofelectricity•In2021,electricityimportswere15.10TWh,whileexportswere14.21TWh.Thebalanceofexchangewithforeignsystemswas0.89TWh.•Electricityexportswerethehighestsince2016,mainlyduetolowerpricesonthewholesalemarketinPoland.ThisstemmedfromthelowercostofelectricityproductionfromcoalinPolandthanfromnaturalgasinneighbouringcountries(evenaftertakingintoaccountthehighpriceofCO2emissionallowances).25TWh2019150.89TWh10502013201420152016201720182019202020212012IMPORTSEXPORTSOwnelaborationbasedonAREdata.EnergytransitioninPolandChangeinelectricitydemandversusGDP•In2021,GDPgrewby5.7%andelectricityconsumptionby5.4%.•ThisisthefirstyearinmorethanadecadeinwhichelectricityconsumptiongrowthwasroughlyequaltoGDPgrowth.Thisisduetotheunusualreferenceyear(2020),whichwasthefirstyearoftheCOVID-19pandemic.2012201320142015201620172018201920202021245.9260TensofbillionsPLNTWh27%240220180.322%17%205.4%5.7%12%7%2002%1801603.3%3.9%2.4%2.9%4.8%5.1%4.5%1400.8%2.1%2.4%1.8%1200.5%1.6%0.5%1.3%100-0.7%-2.1%-2.5%-3%80CHANGEINELECTRICITYCONSUMPTIONGDPDYNAMICS(CONSTANTPRICES)ELECTRICITYCONSUMPTIONGDP(CURRENTPRICES)OwnelaborationbasedonAREandGUSdata.Changeinpeakpowerdemand•Winterpeakpowerdemandin2021was27.617GW,whichwas0.818GWmorethanin2020.•Summerpeakpowerdemandalsoincreased,inthiscaseto24.533GW,or1.5GWmorethaninthepandemicyear2020.•Theincreaseindemandisrelatedtotheelectrificationofheating(heatpumpsduringthewinterpeak)andtheincreaseinair-conditionedspaces(summerpeak),amongotherfactors.30GW2827.626.226.426.526,.82125.825.525.125.52624.82424.124.52221.621.822.322.823.223.723.02021.2182013201420152016201720182019202020212012SUMMERPERIODMAXIMUMWINTERPERIODMAXIMUMOwnelaborationbasedonPSEdata.EnergytransitioninPoland22EmissionsSpecificemissionsofprimaryenergyconsumption•In2020,Polandwasranked6thintheworldintermsofcarbonintensityofprimaryenergyconsumption.•ThecountrywiththehighestcarbonfactorwasSouthAfrica(3.18tCO2/toe).Poland,with2.85tCO2/toe,wasjustbehindChina(2.87tCO2/toe).Forcomparison,theBritisheconomyemitted31%lessthanPoland(1.97tCO2/toe)andtheFrencheconomy56%less(1.25tCO2/toe).3.5tCO2/toe3.02.52.0231.51.00.50.0RSAAustraliaKazakhstanVenezuelaChinaPolandMalaysiaGermanyUnitedFranceKingdomOwnelaborationbasedonEnerdatadata.ThespecificcarbonintensityofprimaryenergyconsumptionshowshowmanytonnesofCO2wereemittedonaveragewhen1unitofprimaryenergywasconsumed(toe-tonsofoilequivalent,1toe≈41.9GJ).Inotherwords,itistheemissivityofenergyconsumption,regardlessofitsform(heating,fuels,electricity,etc.).EnergytransitioninPolandSpecificemissionsofelectricitygeneration•Carbonintensityofelectricityproductionin2020inPolandwasabout710kgCO2/MWhandwasoneofthehighestintheEuropeanUnion.•SuchahighcarbonintensityhasandwillcontinuetoimpacttheindustryduetotheincreasingimportanceofthecarbonfootprintinmanufacturingandhighsensitivityofelectricitypricestothepriceofCO2emissionallowances,amongotherfactors.900kgCO2/MWh800700246005004003002001000SwedLIcelandithuenFaniaLuraxemncebourgFinlandAustrSloiavakiaLatvDeianmarkCroatiaSpainBelgiumPortugalItalyHungaSloveryniaEU-27IrelaRondmanGermiaNetheranylandsMaltaBulgCarizechaiaGreeceCyprusPolaEndstoniaOwnelaborationbasedonEEAdata.StructureofgreenhousegasemissionsinPoland•In2020,mostemissionswerefromelectricityandheatgeneration-35.1%oftotalgrossemissions.•Transportationandindustrywereresponsiblefor16.9%and16.5%,respectively.•Householdsemitted9%ofgreenhousegases.INDUSTRYTRANSPORT25OTHERENERGYUSE62.0MtCO2eq63.6MtCO2eq16.9%39.5MtCO2eq16.5%10.5%AGRICULTUREFUELCOMBUSTION33.1MtCO2eqWASTEINHOUSEHOLDS8.8%MANAGEMENT33.5MtCO2eq12.1MtCO2eq8.9%OTHER3.2%51.6MtCO2eqOwnelaborationbasedonEEAdata.13.7%ELECTRICITYANDHEATPRODUCTION132.0MtCO2eq35.1%EnergytransitioninPolandChangesingreenhousegasemissionsinPoland•AccordingtoForumEnergiiestimates,in2021emissionsincreasedbyabout6%toabout397milliontonnesofCO2equivalent,mainlyintransportandelectricityproduction.•Landuse,landusechangeandforestry(LULUCF)wasresponsibleforabsorbingabout15milliontonnesofCO2eq.550MtCO2eq-17%500-2%4504003502630025020015010050019901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021POLANDNETPOLANDPOLAND(FORUMENERGIIESTIMATE)NETPOLAND(FORUMENERGIIESTIMATE)OwnelaborationbasedonEEA,KOBiZE,AREandGUSdata.Greenhousegases:CO2,methane,nitrousoxide.Netgreenhousegasemissionislowerthangrossemissionbecauseittakesintoaccountnotonlygreenhousegasesreleasedintotheatmosphere,butalsothoseabsorbedbytrees,peatlands,orsoil(LULUCF–LandUse,LandUseChangeandForestry).Changesingreenhousegasemissionsfromelectricityandheatproduction•In2021,emissionsfrompowerandCHPplantsareestimatedtohaveincreasedby15%to140milliontonnesofCO2eq.•Nosignificantchangesinemissionsfromtheheatingplantareexpected.220MtCO2eq-25%200-11%18016027140120-76%100-24%80604020019901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021POWERPLANTSANDCHPHEATINGPLANTSPOWERPLANTSANDCHP(FORUMENERGIIESTIMATE)HEATINGPLANTS(FORUMENERGIIESTIMATE)OwnelaborationbasedonEEA,KOBiZE,AREandGUSdata.Greenhousegases:CO2,methane,nitrousoxide.EnergytransitioninPolandEmissionsfromelectricityandheatproduction,byfuel•Hardcoalwasresponsiblefor62%ofgreenhousegasemissionsfromthepowerindustryin2021(93milliontonnesCO2,+18%y/y).•Lignitewasresponsiblefor31%ofemissions(7milliontonnesCO2,+18%y/y).•Theproductionofelectricityandheatfromnaturalgasfuelswasassociatedwithemissionsof10milliontonnesofCO2(-4.7%y/y).180MtCO2160140281201008060402002013201420152016201720182019202020212012NATURALGASSTEAMCOALLIGNITEOwnelaborationbasedonKOBiZE,AREandGUSdata.Greenhousegases:CO2.CarbondioxideemissionscoveredbytheETS•Poland’stotalCO2emissionsin2020were374milliontonnes;46%wascoveredbytheEuropeanEmissionsTradingSystem(EUETS).•Amongcommercialpowerplantsandcombinedheatandpowerplants,116milliontonnesofCO2(88%ofallemissionsfromthissector)werecoveredbytheETS.Forheatplants,thefigureis57%,with6milliontonnesofCO2coveredbytheETSin2020.•81%ofindustrywascoveredbytheETS-50milliontonsofCO2.COMMERCIALPOWERPLANTSANDCHPHEATINGPLANTSINDUSTRY2916MtCO212%4MtCO212MtCO243%19%116MtCO26MtCO250MtCO288%57%81%OwnelaborationbasedonEEAandKOBiZEdata.ETSNON-ETSEnergytransitioninPolandCO2emissionallowanceprices;Poland’sincomefromtheirsale•80.64euro/tCO2wastheweightedaveragepriceofCO2emissionallowancesontheprimarymarket(EEX,attheendof2021).•AdynamicincreaseinEUApriceswasobservedin2021by51euro/tCO2(+272%y/y).•ThePolishbudgetgainedPLN25.56blnfromauctionsofCO2emissionallowances(EUAandEUAA).ThisisPLN11.5billionmorethanin2020.•PLN60.37billion–totalbudgetrevenueinPoland’s10yearsofactivityontheprimaryCO2market.90Euro/tCO2billionPLN30258030706020501540301020510002012201320142015201620172018201920202021POLAND'SREVENUEWEIGHTEDAVERAGEPRICEOFCO2EMISSIONALLOWANCESOwnelaborationbasedonEEXdata.Electricityprices31EnergytransitioninPolandComparisonofSPOTelectricitypricesinneighbouringmarkets•Attheendof2021,forthefirsttimeinyears,thewholesalepriceofelectricityinPolandwasnotamongthehighestintheregion.OnlyinSwedeninthesecondhalfoftheyearwasitcheaper.•Thepost-pandemicreboundhaspushednaturalgaspricestorecordlevels,affectingthewholesalepriceofelectricityinmanyEuropeanUnioncountries.•DespitethehighpricesofCO2emissionallowances,thecostofelectricityproductioninPolishunitswaslowerthaninforeignones.Thisresultedinthehighestelectricityexportsinyears.200Euro/MWh180321601401201008060402002013201420152016201720182019202020212012POLANDSWEDENLITHUANIAGERMANYCZECHIASLOVAKIAOwnelaborationbasedonEuropeanCommission(QuarterlyReportonEnergyMarkets)andENTSO-Edata.Comparisonofelectricitypricesinneighbouringmarkets–pricesforhouseholds•Foryears,electricitypricesforhouseholdsinPolandhavebeenamongthelowestoftheneighbouringcountries.•Includingalltaxesandlevies,thepriceofelectricityinPolandinthethirdquarterof2021was15.3eurocents/kWh.•Thepriceofelectricityforhouseholdsisshapedbymanyfactors,mostnotablygovernmenttaxandregulatorypolicies.Itisnotasimplereflectionofwholesaleenergypricesontheexchange.35Eurocents/kWh303325201510502013201420152016201720182019202020212012POLANDSWEDENLITHUANIAGERMANYCZECHIASLOVAKIAOwnelaborationbasedonEuropeanCommission(QuarterlyReportonEnergyMarkets)data.EnergytransitioninPolandComparisonofelectricitypricesinneighbouringmarkets-industrialprices​•AfterdeductingVATandallrecoverabletaxesandlevies,thepriceofelectricityforindustryinPolandwas10.79eurocents/kWh.20Eurocents/kWh181614341210864202013201420152016201720182019202020212012POLANDSWEDENLITHUANIAGERMANYCZECHIASLOVAKIAOwnelaborationbasedonEuropeanCommission(QuarterlyReportonEnergyMarkets)data.Powersectorfuels35Mostdataendsin2020duetothelatepublicationofGUSreportsforthepreviousyear.EnergytransitioninPolandTradebalanceofsteamcoal•In2020,steamcoalimportstotalled11milliontonnes-2.2milliontonneslessthanin2019.•82%ofimportedsteamcoalcamefromRussia.OtherimportdestinationswereColombia(8%),Kazakhstan(8%),andAustralia(1%).•In2020,2milliontonnesofsteamcoalwereexported.ThemaincustomerswereCzechia(59%),Slovakia(11%),Germany(11%),andAustria(9%).20milliontonnesIMPORTS153610502011201220132014201520162017201820192020EXPORTS0-5-10IMPORTS:RUSSIACOLOMBIAKAZAKHSTANAUSTRALIAOTHEREXPORTS:CZECHIASLOVAKIAGERMANYAUSTRIAOTHEROwnelaborationbasedonGUSandEurostatdata.HardcoalbalanceinPoland•In2020,bothcoalproductionandconsumptionwerelowerthaninpreviousyears.•Consumptionwas63.5milliontonnes(5.3milliontonneslessthaninthepreviousyear),domesticproductionwas54.7milliontonnes(7.4milliontonnesless),andnetimportswere8.2milliontonnes(4.1milliontonnesless).•Incontrasttopreviousyears,domesticproductionandnetimportswereapproximatelyequaltoconsumptionin2020.•Inpreviousyears(2018and2019),coal(mostlydomestic)wasstockpiled.90milliontonnes8037706050403020100-102012201320142015201620172018201920202011MININGNETIMPORTSINCREASEININVENTORIESCONSUMPTIONOwnelaborationbasedonGUSdata.EnergytransitioninPolandDomestichardcoalproduction​•55milliontonnesofhardcoalwasmineddomesticallyin2021.•Comparedtolastyear,productionincreasedby0.3milliontonnes.90milliontonnes80706055.038504030201002013201420152016201720182019202020212012STEAMCOALHARDCOKINGCOALHARDCOALOwnelaborationbasedonGUSandPolskiRynekWęgladata.Tradebalanceofnaturalgas•In2020,naturalgasimports(bothpipelineandLNG)totalled17.4bcm,thesameasinthepreviousyear.•About55%oftheimportednaturalgascamefromRussia.OtherimportdestinationswereGermany(21%),Qatar(13%),andtheUSA(6%).•In2020,1.4bcmofnaturalgaswasexported.PracticallytheonlycustomerwasUkraine(98%).Theremaining2%ofexportedgaswenttoGermany.•LNGimportsaccountedfor22%(3.8bcmafterregasification)ofallimportedgasfuel.ThemainsupplierswereQatar(60%)andtheUSA(26%).24bcm2039IMPORTS161284EXPORTS020122013201420152016201720182019202020110-4IMPORTS:RUSSIAGERMANYQATARUSAOTHEREXPORTS:UKRAINEOTHEROwnelaborationbasedonGUSandEurostatdata.EnergytransitioninPolandNaturalgasbalanceinPoland•In2020,theupwardtrendinnaturalgasconsumptioncontinued,withhigh-methanegasresponsiblefortheincrease.Nitrogen-richnaturalgasconsumptionremainsstableat3.7-3.8bcm.•Totalnaturalgasconsumptionwas20.9bcm,ofwhichhigh-methanegaswasresponsiblefor18.4bcm.•Theincreasedconsumptionwasnotassociatedwithanincreaseinproductionornetimports(whichfellby0.6bcmto15.5bcm),soinventorieshadtobereducedby0.5bcmtoclosethebalance.24bcm20401612840201220132014201520162017201820192020-2YIELDFROMTRANSFORMATIONOUTPUTORRETURNSNETIMPORTSINCREASEININVENTORIESCONSUMPTION2011MININGOwnelaborationbasedonGUSdata.Nitrogen-richnaturalgashasbeenconvertedtotheequivalentofhigh-methanenaturalgas.Domesticnaturalgasproduction•Domesticproductionofhigh-methanegasisdecliningslightly.In2020,2.7bcmwereextracted,with62%comingfromminigandtheremaining38%fromtransformationoutputorreturns.•Domesticproductionofnitrogen-richnaturalgasdidnotdeviatefromthelong-termtrend.In2020,3.7bcmwereproduced,with96%comingfromminingand4%fromtransformationoutputorreturns.4.5bcm4.03.53.0412.52.01.51.00.502012201320142015201620172018201920202011MINING(HIGH-METHANE)YIELDFROMTRANSFORMATIONOUTPUTORRETURNS(HIGHMETHANE)MINING(NITROGEN-RICH)YIELDFROMTRANSFORMATIONOUTPUTORRETURNS(NITROGEN-RICH)OwnelaborationbasedonAREdata.EnergytransitioninPolandShareofimportsofenergyresourcesfromRussia•In2020,theenergyresourcePolandimportedthemostfromRussiawasoil(64%).•ThesmallestshareofenergyimportsfromRussiawasrecordedinhardcoal(15%).•Abouthalfofthenaturalgas(47%)camefromRussia.NATURALGASOILCRUDEHARDCOAL13%3%15%4233%64%6%47%79%40%IMPORTFROMRUSSIAIMPORTSFROMOTHERCOUNTRIESOWNPRODUCTIONOwnelaborationbasedonARP,marketwatch.com,wnp.pldata.Structureofprimaryenergyconsumption•45%oftheenergyconsumedinPolandcomesfromcoal:36%fromhardcoaland9%fromlignite.•88%offinalenergyconsumptioniscoveredbyfossilfuels.•Renewablesourcesprovided7%ofenergy,withasmuchas5%frombiomass(wood).Waterenergy,photovoltaic,windenergy,geothermal,andambientheatcovered2%ofenergyneeds.•Overthedecade,thereisadecreaseintheshareofcoal(-8p.p.),anincreaseintheshareofoil(+3p.p.)andnaturalgas(+5p.p.).Theshareofwoodremainsstable.5000PJWOODOTHER20204500201PJ202PJ40005%4335005%3000HARDCOAL2500OTHERRENEWABLE1517PJ2000SOURCES36%150084PJ10002%LIGNITE370PJ500GAZZIEMNY9%0727PJ201117%201220132014201520162017201820192020CRUDEOIL1109PJHARDCOALLIGNITE26%CRUDEOILNATURALGASOTHERRENEWABLESOURCESWOODOTHEROwnelaborationbasedonAREdata.EnergytransitioninPolandStructureofnaturalgasconsumption•ThelargestconsumerofgasinPolandisindustry,whichin2020wasresponsiblefor40.2%ofdomesticconsumption.Foryears,thissectorhasbeenresponsiblefor40-43%ofdemand.•Adecreaseintheshareofgasinfinalconsumptionwasrecordedonlyintransport(-11%y/y)andamongothercustomers(-23%y/y).•Thelargestincreasesintheshareofgaswererecordedinagriculture(+16%y/y),electricityandheatproduction(+8%y/y),andhouseholds(+6%y/y).2020900PJOTHERELECTRICITYANDHEAT78.3PJPRODUCTION80010.3%199.3PJ26.1%44700INDUSTRY600AGRICULTURE306.4PJ1.8PJ40.2%5000.2%400HOUSEHOLDS300160.8PJ21.1%200100201220132014201520162017201820192020TRANSPORT16.1PJ02.1%2011ELECTRICITYANDHEATPRODUCTIONINDUSTRYTRANSPORTHOUSEHOLDSAGRICULTUREOTHEROwnelaborationbasedonGUSdata.Structureofsteamcoalconsumption•Thelargestconsumerofsteamcoalistheelectricityandheatproductionindustry,whichwasresponsiblefor71.1%ofdomesticconsumptionin2020.Foryears,thissectorhasbeenresponsiblefor70-74%oftotaldemand.•Transport(-25%y/y),electricityandheat(-10%y/y),andindustry(-10%y/y)sawthelargestdeclinesintheirshareoffinalconsumption.•Onlyhouseholdsandagriculture(+2%y/yeach)sawanincreasedshare.80000thousandtonnesAGRICULTUREOTHER20201250th.t.826th.t.700002.4%1.6%456000050000HOUSEHOLDS8670th.t.4000016.7%30000TRANSPORT12th.t.200000.0%10000INDUSTRY4279th.t.8.2%02012201320142015201620172018201920202011ELECTRICITYANDHEATPRODUCTIONINDUSTRYTRANSPORTELECTRICITYANDHOUSEHOLDSAGRICULTUREOTHERHEATPRODUCTION36966th.t.71.1%OwnelaborationbasedonGUSdata.EnergytransitioninPolandCoalandnaturalgasprices•Sincemid-2021,anhistoricallyunprecedentedriseinenergycommodityprices,especiallynaturalgas,hasbeenobserved.•Naturalgasfuturescontractsrosebymorethan500%y/yonthePolishexchange,whiletheEuropeanTTFindexrosebymorethan570%y/y.•StrongincreasesinnaturalgaspriceswerefeltmoststronglyinEurope.TheU.S.HenryHubindexalsorose,butonaverylimitedbasis.•CoalbecamemoreexpensiveonthebroaderEuropeanmarket,whileitbecamecheaperonthePolishmarket.ARAAPI2recordedadynamicincrease(to38PLN/GJ).ThePolishindexin2021wasonaveragePLN0.5/GJcheaperthanin2020.46160PLN/GJ1401201008060402002013201420152016201720182019202020212012COALPSCMI1COALCIFARAGASHENRYHUBGASTGEGASTTFOwnelaborationbasedonmonthlyaverages:ARP,TGE,NBP,NaturalgasTTF-DutchTTFNaturalGasCalendarindex(TTF=F),CoalCIFARA-indexCoal(API2)CIFARA(ARGUS-McCloskey)Futures(MTFc1),GasHenryHub-naturalgasfutures.Notes47EnergytransitioninPoland2022EditionFORUMENERGIIul.Wspólna35/10,00-519WarszawaNIP:7010592388,KRS:0000625996,REGON:364867487www.forum-energii.eu