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nature communications

Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33047-9

Mitigation of China’scarbonneutralityto

global warming

Longhui Li

1,2,3

, Yue Zhang

1,2,3

, Tianjun Zhou

, Kaicun Wang

,CanWang

Tao Wang

,LinwangYuan

1,2,3

,KangxinAn

, Chenghu Zhou

& Guonian Lü

1,2,3

Projecting mitigations of carbon neutrality from individual countries in rela-

tion to future global warming is of great importance for depicting national

climate responsibility but is poorly quantiﬁed. Here, we show that China’s

carbon neutrality (CNCN) can individually mitigate global warming by 0.48 °C

and 0.40 °C, which account for 14% and 9% of the global warming over the long

term under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 scenarios,

respectively. Further incorporating changes in CH

and N

Oemissionsin

association with CNCN together will alleviate global warming by 0.21 °C and

0.32 °C for SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 over the long term, and even by 0.18 °C for

SSP2-4.5 over the mid-term, but no signiﬁcant impacts are shown for all SSPs in

the near term. Divergent responses in alleviated warming are seen at regional

scales. The results provide a useful reference for the global stocktake, which

assesses the collective progress towards the climate goals of the Paris

Agreement.

Global warming since the preindustrial era has been primarily attrib-

uted to the increase in atmospheric CO

concentrations, which mainly

results from the carbon emissions of fossil fuel combustion1,2.The

likely range of the total human-caused global surface temperature

increase from 1850–1900 to 2010–2019is0.8°Cto1.3°C,withabest

estimate of 1.07 °C2. The contributions of historical anthropogenic

carbon emissions have been quantiﬁed, although the currently existing

qualiﬁcations are based on different criteria and differ in estimation3,4.

If worldwide carbon emissions continue at the current rate, global

warming is likely to exceed 1.5 °C between 2030 and 2052, and even

more than 3–5 °C at the end of the 21st century2. Global warming has

caused a range of broad threats to both natural system and humanity,

including increasing extreme climate events, rising sea levels, and

shifting wildlife populations and habitats5. To limit the increase in

global mean temperature below 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels,

reaching net zero of global CO

emissions in 2055 and limiting non-

greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions after 2030 are crucial mitigation

strategies6. Since the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions to

mitigating global warming agreed upon in the 2015 Paris Agreement,

more than 120 countries have pledged to achieve carbon neutrality

anddeclaredadate

7. In the context of this unique opportunity, pro-

jecting mitigations of pledged carbon neutrality to future global

warming is of the same importance as previous efforts devoted to

quantifying historical climate responsibilities, which can inform the

implementation of global climate mitigation strategies and equality in

development from nations’carbon emissions. As one of the large

annual emitters of CO

emissions8, China has committed to peak its

carbon emissions before 2030 and attain carbon neutrality before

20607,9. Such an ambitious policy target for CO

emission reduction is

expected to mitigate global warming. A recent study based on a very

simpliﬁed climate model reported that China’scarbonneutralityalone

will contribute a 0.16–0.21 °C avoided global warming at the end of the

Received: 14 October 2021

Accepted: 25 August 2022

Check for updates

Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China.

Key Laboratory of

Virtual Geographic Environment (Nanjing Normal University), Ministry of Education, Nanjing 210023, China.

School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing

Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China.

LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.

Sino-French Institute for

Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.

School of Environment, Tsinghua University,

Beijing, China.

State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System and Resources Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese

Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.

Institute of Geographical Information Science and Natural Resources, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China.

e-mail: gnlu@njnu.edu.cn

Nature Communications | (2022) 13:5315 1

1234567890():,;

21st century10. However, the magnitude of such mitigation has not yet

been quantiﬁed using a fully coupled Earth system model that incor-

porates all crucial components of the climate system.

In this work, we employ the NCAR Community Earth System

Model (CESM)11 to project the mitigation of China’s carbon neutrality

(CNCN) to global warming by comparing four pairs of simulations

corresponding to four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs),

including SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, which represent

different anthropogenic surface CO

emissions in future scenarios of

socioeconomic development, population growth, and land and water

requirements for food supplies12. Each pair of simulations consists of

onedefaultfromthesixthphaseofCoupledModelIntercomparison

Project (CMIP6) built-in CESM and another one in which anthro-

pogenic surface CO

emissions in China’s domain are replaced with

values in the policy target of CNCN released by Tsinghua University in

202113 (Supplementary Fig. S1). The results show that China’s carbon

neutrality (CNCN) can individually mitigate global warming by 0.48 °C

and 0.40 °C, which account for 14% and 9% of the average increase in

global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the long term

(2081–2100) under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively.

When further incorporating changes in CH

and N

O emissions in

association with CNCN (CNCN

ext

), the combined effects of three pri-

mary GHGs will slow down the GMST by 0.21 °C and 0.32 °C for SSP1-

2.6 and SSP2-4.5 over the long term, and even by 0.18 °C for SSP2-4.5

over the mid-term (2041–2060).

Results

Temporal evolutions of mitigations of China’s carbon neutrality

to global warming

Following the IPCC AR62, we examine the projected changes in GMST

for the near term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060) and long term

(2081–2100) relative to 1850–1900 (preindustrial period). Compared

to the preindustrial period, the GMST averaged over 2081–2100 is

projected to increase by 1.7 °C under the low GHG emissions scenario

(SSP1-2.6), by 2.7 °C and 3.4 °C under the two intermediate scenarios

(SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0), and by 4.7 °C under the very high GHG

emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) (Fig. 1a). The simulated GMSTs for the

policy target of the CNCN scenario do not signiﬁcantly differ from

those for the corresponding SSPs over the near term (Fig. 1b), and the

insigniﬁcant response in the near-term projection is caused mainly by

the CESM’sinternalvariability

14. Such insigniﬁcant mitigation is also

the case over the mid-term except for SSP5-8.5, in which CNCN miti-

gates the impact of global warming by 0.17 °C (±0.05 °C) (Fig. 1c). Over

the long term, the GMST in the policy target of CNCN scenarios is

signiﬁcantly different (p< 0.01) from that in the default SSP scenarios,

except for SSP1-2.6 (Fig. 1d). For SSP2-4.5, China’s carbon neutrality

Fig. 1 | Mitigations of China’s carbon neutrality (CNCN) and extension scenarios

with additional CH

and NO

emission reductions accompanied by the CO

emission reductions for CNCN (CNCN

ext

) to global mean surface temperature

(GMST). a Evolution of GMST changes relative to the preindustrial period

(1850–1900 average) (ΔT, unit in °C) for the default CMIP6, CNCN and CNCN

ext

scenarios from 2015 to 2100. b–drepresent mitigations of the CNCN and

CNCN

ext

scenarios for each shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) over the near

term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060) and long term (2081–2100). The

mitigation effect is calculated as the difference in GMST between the CNCN (or

CNCN

ext

) and the default CMIP6 scenarios. The segment lines represent the

original values and the shaded areas around the smooth line represent the

conﬁdence at level of 0.05 for each scenario. The box plots in panels b–dshow

the 25th, the median and the 75th percentile range (box) and the

minimum–maximum range (whiskers). The symbols * and *** represent statis-

tical signiﬁcance at levels of 0.01 and 0.001, respectively. “ns”represents sta-

tistical insigniﬁcance at level of 0.01. Symbols with underscores shown above

the head of the box in b–drepresent comparisons between the CNCN and

CNCN

ext

scenarios and those shown above the x-axis are referred to as com-

parisons between the CNCN (or CNCN

ext

) and the default CMIP6 scenarios. The

paired t test was used to calculate the signiﬁcance.

Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33047-9

Nature Communications | (2022) 13:5315 2

reduces the GMST by 0.14 °C (±0.07 °C) in the long term. For the SSP3-

7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, CNCN potentially reduces the long-term

GMST by 0.48 (±0.09) °C and 0.40 (±0.09) °C (p< 0.01), respectively

(Fig. 1d). Such mitigations account for 14% and 9% of the average

increase in the GMST during the last two decades of the 21st century,

respectively.

When further incorporating the changes in CH

and N

O accom-

paniedbythereductionsincarbonemissions(i.e.,CNCN

ext

), the

CNCN

ext

scenario does not result in signiﬁcant changes in GMST for all

four SSPs over the near and mid-terms except for SSP2-4.5, which

shows ~0.09 °C less warming over the mid-term (p< 0.01) compared

with the CNCN scenario (Fig. 1b, c). Over the long term, changes in CH

and N

O emissions prevent signiﬁcant further GMST warming relative

to the CNCN scenario for all SSPs except for SSP3-7.0 (Fig. 1d). Con-

sequently, changes in the three GHG emission under the pledge of

China’s carbon neutrality result in signiﬁcant and large net declines in

GMST by 0.21 (±0.17), 0.32 (±0.13), 0.50 (±0.21) and 0.39 (±0.17) °C

over the long term for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5,

respectively (Fig. 1d). Such impacts on the GMST are signiﬁcant for

SSP2-4.5 (0.18 ± 0.09 °C) and SSP5-8.5 (0.13 ± 0.07 °C) over the mid-

term but insigniﬁcant for all SSPs over the near term. For those pairs of

simulated GMST without signiﬁcant differences, underlying causes

mainly come from either smaller differences among the default CMIP6,

CNCN and CNCN

ext

scenarios (Supplementary Figs. S3, S4) or historical

accumulation up to the simulation years4,aswellastheinternal

variability14. As previously reported, the internal variability of the CESM

ranges from 0.06 to 0.09 °C15, and the magnitudes of mitigations on

global warming from CNCN and CNCN

ext

for the SSP3-7.0 (0.48 and

0.39 °C) and SSP5-8.5 (0.4 and 0.5 °C) scenarios over the long term are

larger than the internal variability, indicating a robust response.

Spatial divergences of mitigations of China’s carbon neutrality

to global warming

The effect of anthropogenic CO

emissions on GMST is evident at both

global and regional or local scales16. The change of surface tempera-

ture induced by CNCN (dT) is scenario-dependent, spatially not uni-

form and varies with time. The magnitudes of dT at the global scale

range from −1.84 to 1.76 °C (Fig. 2). Remarkable differences are seen at

regional scale. Over the near term and mid-terms, only 0.2–4% of grids

show signiﬁcant differences in dT at the global scale (Fig. 2a–d). A

strong warming is seen in the near term under SSP1-2.6 over the

Barents Sea and its southern regions adjacent to western Russia

(Fig. 2a). Such kind of warming can be explained by the fact that the

SSP1-2.6 under the CNCN scenario has signiﬁcantly larger carbon

emissions than the default scenario over the near term (Supplemen-

tary Fig. S2). Over the mid-term, CNCN leads to a strong increase in

surface temperature in south of Greenland under both the SSP2-4.5

and SSP3-7.0 scenarios but a signiﬁcant decrease in east of Siberian sea

and adjacent to eastern Russia under the SSP2-4.5 scenario (Fig. 2f, g),

which is highly consistent with the report of a signiﬁcant regional

transient response of local temperature to CO

emissions16.Overthe

long term, grids with signiﬁcant differences in dT account for up to

10% and 9% of the global values for SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5, respectively,

but the signs of CNCN-induced surface temperature change are

regionally dependent (Fig. 2i–l). Warming effects over the long term in

Greenland and the Arctic from SSP1-2.6 are primarily caused by higher

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

(e)

(f)

(g)

(h)

(i)

(j)

(k)

(l)

Near term Mid–term Long term

SSP1–2.6SSP2–4.5

SSP3–7.0SSP5–8.5

–1.9

–1.7

–1.5

–1.3

–1.1

–0.9

–0.7

–0.5

–0.3

–0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

Fig. 2 | Mean surface temperature difference between China’s carbon neutrality

(CNCN) and default CMIP6 scenarios for four shared socioeconomic pathways

(SSPs). Panels from left to right represent the near term (2021–2040, a–d),

mid-term (2041–2060, e–h) and long term (2081–2100, i–l), and panels from

top to bottom represent SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5,

respectively. The mean surface temperature difference (dT, unit in °C) is cal-

culated as the value of CNCN minus the default CMIP6 for each combination of

the study term and SSPs. Pixels overlayed by dots indicate that the dT is sta-

tistically signiﬁcant at a level of 0.01. The paired ttest was used to calculate the

signiﬁcance.

Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33047-9

Nature Communications | (2022) 13:5315 3

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naturecommunicationsArticlehttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33047-9MitigationofChina’scarbonneutralitytoglobalwarmingLonghuiLi1,2,3,YueZhang1,2,3,TianjunZhou4,KaicunWang5,CanWang6,TaoWang7,LinwangYuan1,2,3,KangxinAn6,ChenghuZhou8&GuonianLü1,2,3Projectingmitigationsofcarbonneutralityfromindividualcountriesinrela-tiontofutureglobalwarmingisofgreatimportancefordepictingnationalclimateresponsibilitybutispoorlyquantiﬁed.Here,weshowthatChina’scarbonneutrality(CNCN)canindividuallymitigateglobalwarmingby0.48°Cand0.40°C,whichaccountfor14%and9%oftheglobalwarmingoverthelongtermunderthesharedsocioeconomicpathway(SSP)3-7.0and5-8.5scenarios,respectively.FurtherincorporatingchangesinCH4andN2OemissionsinassociationwithCNCNtogetherwillalleviateglobalwarmingby0.21°Cand0.32°CforSSP1-2.6andSSP2-4.5overthelongterm,andevenby0.18°CforSSP2-4.5overthemid-term,butnosigniﬁcantimpactsareshownforallSSPsinthenearterm.Divergentresponsesinalleviatedwarmingareseenatregionalscales.Theresultsprovideausefulreferencefortheglobalstocktake,whichassessesthecollectiveprogresstowardstheclimategoalsoftheParisAgreement.Globalwarmingsincethepreindustrialerahasbeenprimarilyattrib-utedtotheincreaseinatmosphericCO2concentrations,whichmainlyresultsfromthecarbonemissionsoffossilfuelcombustion1,2.Thelikelyrangeofthetotalhuman-causedglobalsurfacetemperatureincreasefrom1850–1900to2010–2019is0.8°Cto1.3°C,withabestestimateof1.07°C2.Thecontributionsofhistoricalanthropogeniccarbonemissionshavebeenquantiﬁed,althoughthecurrentlyexistingqualiﬁcationsarebasedondifferentcriteriaanddifferinestimation3,4.Ifworldwidecarbonemissionscontinueatthecurrentrate,globalwarmingislikelytoexceed1.5°Cbetween2030and2052,andevenmorethan3–5°Cattheendofthe21stcentury2.Globalwarminghascausedarangeofbroadthreatstobothnaturalsystemandhumanity,includingincreasingextremeclimateevents,risingsealevels,andshiftingwildlifepopulationsandhabitats5.Tolimittheincreaseinglobalmeantemperaturebelow1.5°Cabovepreindustriallevels,reachingnetzeroofglobalCO2emissionsin2055andlimitingnon-CO2greenhousegas(GHG)emissionsafter2030arecrucialmitigationstrategies6.SincetheIntendedNationallyDeterminedContributionstomitigatingglobalwarmingagreeduponinthe2015ParisAgreement,morethan120countrieshavepledgedtoachievecarbonneutralityanddeclaredadate7.Inthecontextofthisuniqueopportunity,pro-jectingmitigationsofpledgedcarbonneutralitytofutureglobalwarmingisofthesameimportanceaspreviouseffortsdevotedtoquantifyinghistoricalclimateresponsibilities,whichcaninformtheimplementationofglobalclimatemitigationstrategiesandequalityindevelopmentfromnations’carbonemissions.AsoneofthelargeannualemittersofCO2emissions8,Chinahascommittedtopeakitscarbonemissionsbefore2030andattaincarbonneutralitybefore20607,9.SuchanambitiouspolicytargetforCO2emissionreductionisexpectedtomitigateglobalwarming.ArecentstudybasedonaverysimpliﬁedclimatemodelreportedthatChina’scarbonneutralityalonewillcontributea0.16–0.21°CavoidedglobalwarmingattheendoftheReceived:14October2021Accepted:25August2022Checkforupdates1JiangsuCenterforCollaborativeInnovationinGeographicalInformationResourceDevelopmentandApplication,Nanjing210023,China.2KeyLaboratoryofVirtualGeographicEnvironment(NanjingNormalUniversity),MinistryofEducation,Nanjing210023,China.3SchoolofGeographicalSciences,NanjingNormalUniversity,Nanjing210023,China.4LASG,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing,China.5Sino-FrenchInstituteforEarthSystemScience,CollegeofUrbanandEnvironmentalSciences,PekingUniversity,Beijing100871,China.6SchoolofEnvironment,TsinghuaUniversity,Beijing,China.7StateKeyLaboratoryofTibetanPlateauEarthSystemandResourcesEnvironment(TPESRE),InstituteofTibetanPlateauResearch,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing,China.8InstituteofGeographicalInformationScienceandNaturalResources,ChineseAcademyofScience,Beijing,China.e-mail:gnlu@njnu.edu.cnNatureCommunications(2022)13:531511234567890():,;1234567890():,;21stcentury10.However,themagnitudeofsuchmitigationhasnotyetbeenquantiﬁedusingafullycoupledEarthsystemmodelthatincor-poratesallcrucialcomponentsoftheclimatesystem.Inthiswork,weemploytheNCARCommunityEarthSystemModel(CESM)11toprojectthemitigationofChina’scarbonneutrality(CNCN)toglobalwarmingbycomparingfourpairsofsimulationscorrespondingtofoursharedsocioeconomicpathways(SSPs),includingSSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0andSSP5-8.5,whichrepresentdifferentanthropogenicsurfaceCO2emissionsinfuturescenariosofsocioeconomicdevelopment,populationgrowth,andlandandwaterrequirementsforfoodsupplies12.EachpairofsimulationsconsistsofonedefaultfromthesixthphaseofCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP6)built-inCESMandanotheroneinwhichanthro-pogenicsurfaceCO2emissionsinChina’sdomainarereplacedwithvaluesinthepolicytargetofCNCNreleasedbyTsinghuaUniversityin202113(SupplementaryFig.S1).TheresultsshowthatChina’scarbonneutrality(CNCN)canindividuallymitigateglobalwarmingby0.48°Cand0.40°C,whichaccountfor14%and9%oftheaverageincreaseinglobalmeansurfacetemperature(GMST)overthelongterm(2081–2100)undertheSSP3-7.0andSSP5-8.5scenarios,respectively.WhenfurtherincorporatingchangesinCH4andN2OemissionsinassociationwithCNCN(CNCNext),thecombinedeffectsofthreepri-maryGHGswillslowdowntheGMSTby0.21°Cand0.32°CforSSP1-2.6andSSP2-4.5overthelongterm,andevenby0.18°CforSSP2-4.5overthemid-term(2041–2060).ResultsTemporalevolutionsofmitigationsofChina’scarbonneutralitytoglobalwarmingFollowingtheIPCCAR62,weexaminetheprojectedchangesinGMSTforthenearterm(2021–2040),mid-term(2041–2060)andlongterm(2081–2100)relativeto1850–1900(preindustrialperiod).Comparedtothepreindustrialperiod,theGMSTaveragedover2081–2100isprojectedtoincreaseby1.7°CunderthelowGHGemissionsscenario(SSP1-2.6),by2.7°Cand3.4°Cunderthetwointermediatescenarios(SSP2-4.5andSSP3-7.0),andby4.7°CundertheveryhighGHGemissionsscenario(SSP5-8.5)(Fig.1a).ThesimulatedGMSTsforthepolicytargetoftheCNCNscenariodonotsigniﬁcantlydifferfromthoseforthecorrespondingSSPsoverthenearterm(Fig.1b),andtheinsigniﬁcantresponseinthenear-termprojectioniscausedmainlybytheCESM’sinternalvariability14.Suchinsigniﬁcantmitigationisalsothecaseoverthemid-termexceptforSSP5-8.5,inwhichCNCNmiti-gatestheimpactofglobalwarmingby0.17°C(±0.05°C)(Fig.1c).Overthelongterm,theGMSTinthepolicytargetofCNCNscenariosissigniﬁcantlydifferent(p<0.01)fromthatinthedefaultSSPscenarios,exceptforSSP1-2.6(Fig.1d).ForSSP2-4.5,China’scarbonneutralityFig.1MitigationsofChina’scarbonneutrality(CNCN)andextensionscenarioswithadditionalCH4andNO2emissionreductionsaccompaniedbytheCO2emissionreductionsforCNCN(CNCNext)toglobalmeansurfacetemperature(GMST).aEvolutionofGMSTchangesrelativetothepreindustrialperiod(1850–1900average)(ΔT,unitin°C)forthedefaultCMIP6,CNCNandCNCNextscenariosfrom2015to2100.b–drepresentmitigationsoftheCNCNandCNCNextscenariosforeachsharedsocioeconomicpathway(SSP)overthenearterm(2021–2040),mid-term(2041–2060)andlongterm(2081–2100).ThemitigationeffectiscalculatedasthedifferenceinGMSTbetweentheCNCN(orCNCNext)andthedefaultCMIP6scenarios.Thesegmentlinesrepresenttheoriginalvaluesandtheshadedareasaroundthesmoothlinerepresenttheconﬁdenceatlevelof0.05foreachscenario.Theboxplotsinpanelsb–dshowthe25th,themedianandthe75thpercentilerange(box)andtheminimum–maximumrange(whiskers).Thesymbolsandrepresentstatis-ticalsigniﬁcanceatlevelsof0.01and0.001,respectively.“ns”representssta-tisticalinsigniﬁcanceatlevelof0.01.Symbolswithunderscoresshownabovetheheadoftheboxinb–drepresentcomparisonsbetweentheCNCNandCNCNextscenariosandthoseshownabovethex-axisarereferredtoascom-parisonsbetweentheCNCN(orCNCNext)andthedefaultCMIP6scenarios.Thepairedttestwasusedtocalculatethesigniﬁcance.Articlehttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33047-9NatureCommunications(2022)13:53152reducestheGMSTby0.14°C(±0.07°C)inthelongterm.FortheSSP3-7.0andSSP5-8.5scenarios,CNCNpotentiallyreducesthelong-termGMSTby0.48(±0.09)°Cand0.40(±0.09)°C(p<0.01),respectively(Fig.1d).Suchmitigationsaccountfor14%and9%oftheaverageincreaseintheGMSTduringthelasttwodecadesofthe21stcentury,respectively.WhenfurtherincorporatingthechangesinCH4andN2Oaccom-paniedbythereductionsincarbonemissions(i.e.,CNCNext),theCNCNextscenariodoesnotresultinsigniﬁcantchangesinGMSTforallfourSSPsoverthenearandmid-termsexceptforSSP2-4.5,whichshows~0.09°Clesswarmingoverthemid-term(p<0.01)comparedwiththeCNCNscenario(Fig.1b,c).Overthelongterm,changesinCH4andN2OemissionspreventsigniﬁcantfurtherGMSTwarmingrelativetotheCNCNscenarioforallSSPsexceptforSSP3-7.0(Fig.1d).Con-sequently,changesinthethreeGHGemissionunderthepledgeofChina’scarbonneutralityresultinsigniﬁcantandlargenetdeclinesinGMSTby0.21(±0.17),0.32(±0.13),0.50(±0.21)and0.39(±0.17)°CoverthelongtermforSSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0andSSP5-8.5,respectively(Fig.1d).SuchimpactsontheGMSTaresigniﬁcantforSSP2-4.5(0.18±0.09°C)andSSP5-8.5(0.13±0.07°C)overthemid-termbutinsigniﬁcantforallSSPsoverthenearterm.ForthosepairsofsimulatedGMSTwithoutsigniﬁcantdifferences,underlyingcausesmainlycomefromeithersmallerdifferencesamongthedefaultCMIP6,CNCNandCNCNextscenarios(SupplementaryFigs.S3,S4)orhistoricalCO2accumulationuptothesimulationyears4,aswellastheinternalvariability14.Aspreviouslyreported,theinternalvariabilityoftheCESMrangesfrom0.06to0.09°C15,andthemagnitudesofmitigationsonglobalwarmingfromCNCNandCNCNextfortheSSP3-7.0(0.48and0.39°C)andSSP5-8.5(0.4and0.5°C)scenariosoverthelongtermarelargerthantheinternalvariability,indicatingarobustresponse.SpatialdivergencesofmitigationsofChina’scarbonneutralitytoglobalwarmingTheeffectofanthropogenicCO2emissionsonGMSTisevidentatbothglobalandregionalorlocalscales16.Thechangeofsurfacetempera-tureinducedbyCNCN(dT)isscenario-dependent,spatiallynotuni-formandvarieswithtime.ThemagnitudesofdTattheglobalscalerangefrom−1.84to1.76°C(Fig.2).Remarkabledifferencesareseenatregionalscale.Overtheneartermandmid-terms,only0.2–4%ofgridsshowsigniﬁcantdifferencesindTattheglobalscale(Fig.2a–d).AstrongwarmingisseenintheneartermunderSSP1-2.6overtheBarentsSeaanditssouthernregionsadjacenttowesternRussia(Fig.2a).SuchkindofwarmingcanbeexplainedbythefactthattheSSP1-2.6undertheCNCNscenariohassigniﬁcantlylargercarbonemissionsthanthedefaultscenariooverthenearterm(Supplemen-taryFig.S2).Overthemid-term,CNCNleadstoastrongincreaseinsurfacetemperatureinsouthofGreenlandunderboththeSSP2-4.5andSSP3-7.0scenariosbutasigniﬁcantdecreaseineastofSiberianseaandadjacenttoeasternRussiaundertheSSP2-4.5scenario(Fig.2f,g),whichishighlyconsistentwiththereportofasigniﬁcantregionaltransientresponseoflocaltemperaturetoCO2emissions16.Overthelongterm,gridswithsigniﬁcantdifferencesindTaccountforupto10%and9%oftheglobalvaluesforSSP1-2.6andSSP2-4.5,respectively,butthesignsofCNCN-inducedsurfacetemperaturechangeareregionallydependent(Fig.2i–l).WarmingeffectsoverthelongterminGreenlandandtheArcticfromSSP1-2.6areprimarilycausedbyhigher(a)(b)(c)(d)(e)(f)(g)(h)(i)(j)(k)(l)NeartermMid–termLongtermSSP1–2.6SSP2–4.5SSP3–7.0SSP5–8.5dT–1.9–1.7–1.5–1.3–1.1–0.9–0.7–0.5–0.3–0.10.10.30.50.70.91.11.31.51.71.9Fig.2MeansurfacetemperaturedifferencebetweenChina’scarbonneutrality(CNCN)anddefaultCMIP6scenariosforfoursharedsocioeconomicpathways(SSPs).Panelsfromlefttorightrepresentthenearterm(2021–2040,a–d),mid-term(2041–2060,e–h)andlongterm(2081–2100,i–l),andpanelsfromtoptobottomrepresentSSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0andSSP5-8.5,respectively.Themeansurfacetemperaturedifference(dT,unitin°C)iscal-culatedasthevalueofCNCNminusthedefaultCMIP6foreachcombinationofthestudytermandSSPs.PixelsoverlayedbydotsindicatethatthedTissta-tisticallysigniﬁcantatalevelof0.01.Thepairedttestwasusedtocalculatethesigniﬁcance.Articlehttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33047-9NatureCommunications(2022)13:53153anthropogenicCO2emissionsthanthedefaultscenario(Supplemen-taryFig.S2).TheavoidedwarmingfromSSP2-4.5ismainlylocatedintheSouthernOcean(Fig.2j).ForSSP3-7.0andSSP5-8.5,53%and34%oftheglobalvaluesshowsigniﬁcantdifferencesindT,respectively(Fig.2k–l).Generally,theavoidedwarminginducedbyCNCNoverthelongtermunderSSP3-7.0scenariofeaturesapolarampliﬁcationpat-tern,withstrongeravoidedwarmingintheArcticandhigh-latitudes,andweakavoidedwarminginlowlatitudes(Fig.2k).UndertheSSP5-8.5scenario,strongavoidedwarmingisseenineasternGreenland,theGreenlandSea,largeregionsofRussiaandsomefractionsofregionsoflandandoceansfromlowtohighlatitudes(Fig.2l).ComparedtotheCNCNscenario,thejointeffectsofCH4andN2Ofurtherresultinadditionalnear-termwarmingunderbothSSP1-2.6andSSP2-4.5scenariosbutsigniﬁcantlylesswarmingunderSSP5-8.5scenarioinhighlatitudesoftheNorthernHemi-sphere(SupplementaryFig.S7),whichismainlyduetothediffer-enceinN2Oemissionsbetweenthetwoscenarios(SupplementaryFig.S4).FurtheravoidedwarmingsfromthecombinedeffectsofCH4andN2OaremoreevidentunderbothSSP1-2.6andSSP2-4.5scenariosinthelongterminhighlatitudesoftheNorthernHemisphere.However,signiﬁcantwarminginducedbyCH4andN2OemissionsisobservedoverthelongtermunderSSP3-7.0scenariointheregionssurroundingtheMediterraneanSeaandtheBarentsSea(SupplementaryFig.S7).TakingcomprehensivecovariationsofthreeprimaryGHGswithintheChina’scarbonneutralitypledgeintoaccountresultsinastrongwarmingeffectinnear-termGMSToveralargeareacoveringthemajorityoftheBarentsSea,RussiaanditsnorthernoceansovertheneartermforSSP1-2.6(Fig.3a).Theresponseofsurfacetemperatureinthenear-termisnotevidentunderallotherscenarios(Fig.3a–d).Theavoidedwarminginthemid-termunderCNCNextscenarioisonlyevidentinsmallregions,whichcoversonly3%(SSP1-2.6)to10%(SSP2-4.5)ofglobalarea(Fig.3e,f).Incontrast,aremarkableavoidedwarmingisseeninthelongterm,whichaccountsfor8%,22%,25%and36%oftheglobalareaforSSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0andSSP5-8.5,respectively(Fig.3i–l).DiscussionHere,wemakeaﬁrstattempttoprojecttheeffectofpledgedcarbonneutralityfromanindividualcountry,takingthecurrentlylargestemittingcountryasanexample,onfutureglobalwarmingmitigationbasedonafullycoupledEarthsystemmodel.TheavoidedwarmingsfromCNCNaresigniﬁcantunderSSP3-7.0andSSP5-8.5scenariosoverthelongtermbutinsigniﬁcantorsigniﬁcantinonlylessthan10%ofglobalregionsunderotherscenariosforneartermandmid-term.MitigationscausedbyCNCNalonewouldreduceglobalwarmingby0.48(±0.09)°Cand0.40(±0.09)°Cinthesetwoscenarios,respec-tively.Suchmitigationmagnitudesaccountfor14%and9%ofglobalwarminginthesameperiod.WhenfurtherchangesinCH4andN2OemissionsinassociationwithChina’scarbonneutralityareincorpo-rated,thecombinedeffectsofthethreeprimaryGHGsslowedthewarmingofGMSTinthelongtermby0.21–0.50°CforthefourSSPs,whichaccountedforapproximately11–12%ofglobalwarming.CNCNextalsocontributeavoidedwarmingsforSSP2-4.5(0.18°C)and(a)(b)(c)(d)(e)(f)(g)(h)(i)(j)(k)(l)NeartermMid–termLongtermSSP1–2.6SSP2–4.5SSP3–7.0SSP5–8.5dT–2.5–2.1–1.9–1.7–1.5–1.3–1.1–0.9–0.7–0.5–0.3–0.10.10.30.50.70.91.11.31.51.71.92.12.5Fig.3MeansurfacetemperaturedifferencebetweenextensionscenarioswithadditionalCH4andNO2emissionreductionsaccompaniedbytheCO2emissionreductionsforChina’scarbonneutrality(CNCNext)anddefaultCMIP6scenariosforfoursharedsocioeconomicpathways(SSPs).Panelsfromlefttorightrepresentthenearterm(2021–2040,a–d),mid-term(2041–2060,e–h)andlongterm(2081–2100,i–l),andpanelsfromtoptobottomrepresentSSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0andSSP5-8.5,respectively.Themeansurfacetemperaturedif-ference(dT,unitin°C)iscalculatedasthevalueofCNCNextminusthedefaultCMIP6foreachcombinationofthestudytermandSSPs.PixelsoverlayedbydotsindicatethatthedTisstatisticallysigniﬁcantatalevelof0.01.Thepairedttestwasusedtocalculatethesigniﬁcance.Articlehttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33047-9NatureCommunications(2022)13:53154SSP5-8.5(0.12°C)overthemid-termbutdoesnothaveanysigniﬁcantimpactsontheGMSTforallfourSSPsinthenearterm.Wealsoacknowledgetheuncertaintiesinourstudy.First,inournumericalexperiments,weassumedthatothercountriesdonottakeanysigniﬁcantmitigationactions,whichisfardifferentfromfuturereality,asmorethan120countrieshavepledgedsuchactions7.GiventhatmanyeffortstoreduceGHGemissionsworld-widehavebeenpledged,China’sshareofthemitigationofglobalwarmingwilllargelydecline.Second,theemissionpathwayusedtodrivetheEarthsystemmodelinthisstudyisonlyoneofvariouspossiblepathwaystoattaincarbonneutrality,andemissionpath-waysforcarbonneutralityarequitesensitivetovariationsinnations’policyinterventions,thedecarbonizationprogressinelectricityandindustrialsectors,andestablishmentofrenewableenergyandtechnologyinnovationsforcarboncaptureandstorageorcarbondioxideremoval17.Third,changesinatmosphericaerosols,suchasshortlivedGHGscooccurringwithfossilfuelcombustionsanddiversehumanactivities,arenottakenintoaccountinthesimula-tions,althoughthecombinedeffectofvariouskindsofaerosolsisreportedtohaveconﬂictingeffectsthatrangefromsigniﬁcantreductionintemperaturetoamodestimpactandevenanetfuturewarmingeffect18–21.Finally,mitigationeffectsarederivedbypairsimulationsofasinglefactor,CO2onlyoracombinationofCO2,CH4andN2O,whichessentiallycannotsortoutanindividualcountry’seffectsonglobalwarmingbecausetheglobalwarmingiscausedbythecumulativeanthropogenicCO2emissionsfromthepreindustrialeraandthehistoricalemissionwillstillworkinfuturewarming.Inaddition,multiplesimulationsforthesamescenariowouldreducetheuncertaintyinducedbythemodel’sinternalvariabilityandmaketheresultsmorerobust.ItiswellknownthatCO2emissionpathwaysforcarbonneu-tralityandGHGneutralityaredifferent.Carbonneutralitytargetsabalancebetweenanthropogenicemissionsbysourcesandremovalsbysinksofcarbon,butGHGneutralityreferstoallgreenhousegases,whichmeansthatadditionalnegativeCO2emissionsandsomenon-CO2GHGemissionshavetocancelouteachotherforGHGneutrality22–24.Chinahasdeliveredaseriesofdomesticstrategiesandpoliciesincludingabatedcoalconsumption25,clearenergydevelopment26–28,nationwideecologicalrestoration29,30andothervariousnegative-emissiontechnologies31aspotentialcounter-measurestoachievecarbonneutralityby2060.MostoftheseChi-na’songoingemissionactionsalsocontributetoreductionsinsomenon-CO2GHGemissionsandincreasesinnegative-emissionofCO2,whichimpliesthatChina’sfutureemissionpathwayisultimatelytargetingforaGHGneutrality,althoughcarbonneutralityiscur-rentlyclaimed7,9.China’srapidgrowthinanthropogenicCO2emis-sionsoccurredafter2000(SupplementaryFig.S2),andthetimespanstocarbonpeaking(2030)andneutrality(2060)arequiteshort,comparedtothoseofdevelopedcountries4.ThiscreatesgreatchallengesforChinatoachievecarbonorGHGneutrality.However,China’sdeterminationandambitionforcarbonorGHGneutralityareverystrongbecauseimpellingforcarbonandGHGneutralitywillnotonlycontributetomitigatingfurtherglobalwarmingbutalsotofacilitatingeconomictransformationandupgradeformoresus-tainabledevelopment,includingimprovingdomesticairqualityandprotectingpublichealth32.ThisstudyquantiﬁestherelativecontributionofChina’scarbonneutralitypledgetofutureglobalwarming,whichisinformativeandinsightfulforquantifyinganindividualcountry’smitigationofcarbonemissionsonscalesofbothtimehorizonsandspatialdistributions.Ourresultsprovideausefulreferencefortheglobalstocktake,whichassessesthecollectiveprogresstowardstheclimategoalsoftheParisAgreement.Thisalsoimpliesthatjointeffortsfromallcountriesintheworldareurgentlyneededtomitigatefurtherglobalwarmingthroughnet-zerocarbonactions.MethodsCommunicationearthsystemmodelTheNCAR’sCommunityEarthSystemModel(CESM)11isafullycoupledearthsystemmodelconsistingofsevenprognosticcomponents,namelyatmosphere,land,landice,ocean,seaice,riverandacouplerthatcomputesﬂuxesbetweencomponents.TheCESM2.1.3versionincorporatesasuiteofcasesforCMIP6simulationswithseveralsharedsocioeconomicpathway(SSP)scenarios.FourSSPswereusedinthisstudy.TheﬁrstisSSP1-2.6,whichrepresentsthelowendoftherangeoffutureforcingpathwaysandupdatestheRCP2.6(RCP,representativeconcentrationpathways).ThesecondisSSP2-4.5,whichrepresentsthemediumpartoftherangeoffutureforcingpathwaysandupdatestheRCP4.5pathway.ThethirdisSSP3-7.0,whichrepresentsthemediumtohighendoftherangeoffutureforcingpathways.ThefourthisSSP5-8.5,whichrepresentsthehighendoftherangeoffuturepathwaysandupdatestheRCP8.512,althoughtheSSP5-8.5scenarioiscriticisedasoverestimatingfuturecumulativefossilfuelandindustryCO2emissions33.EachdefaultCMIP6SSPincorporatescorrespondingspatiallyanthropogenicsurfaceCO2emissionsproducedwiththeIntegratedAssessmentModel(IAM).GlobalCO2forcingdataunderCNCNscenarioTheCNCNscenario13ismainlybasedoncarbonemissionsconsistentwiththeIPCC1.5°Ctarget,butitrequiresfurtherreductionsinnationaltotalenergyconsumptionandlargeincreasesinthepropor-tionofnonfossilenergyinprimaryenergyconsumption.TheCNCNscenarioalsorequiressigniﬁcantdecreasesinnon-CO2GHGemissionsandincreasesinterrestrialecosystemcarbonsinksandlarge-scaleimplementationsofcarboncaptureandstorage(CCS)andcarbondioxideremoval(CDR).UnlikeIAMs,itisnotpossibletogeneratespatiallyexplicitanthropogenicsurfaceCO2emissionsfortheCNCNscenario,butaroadmapwiththeexpectedamountoftotallydomesticCO2emissionsforCNCNupto2050isgenerated13.WeassumethatfutureanthropogenicCO2emissionsforeachgridundertheCNCN(CO2ði,jÞ)scenarioarelinearlyproportionaltotheiroriginalvaluesinthedefaultSSPs(CO2,SSPði,jÞ),i.e.,theEq.(1).CO2ði,jÞ=CO2,CNN∑n1CO2,SSPði,jÞ×CO2,SSPði,jÞð1ÞGeneratedspatialCO2emissionsthenreplacethevaluesindefaultSSPsinChinabutremainunchangedoutsideofChina,andanthro-pogenicCO2emissionsfortheCNCNscenarioafter2050remainunchangedasitsvaluein2050.ThenewdatasetsofCO2emissionsforCNCNareusedtodrivetheCESMandrepresenttheCNCNscenarios.Therefore,fourpairsofsimulationsareformed,andthedifferenceineachpairofsimulationsrepresentsthemitigationsofglobalwarmingfromCNCN.FromtheCNCNreport13,China’santhropogeniccarbonemissionswillpeakat10.5GtCO2year−1in2030anddropto1.2GtCO2year−1in2050.Underthecarbonneutralitypathway13,Chinawillreduceitscarbonemissionsby89%in2050,whichisroughlyconsistentwitharecentsynthesisforthe1.5°Ctargetbasedonmultipleintegratedassessmentmodels17.ComparedwiththedefaultCMIP6scenario,CNCNhasadifferencerangingfrom−3.70to18.03GtCO2year−1inanthropogenicsurfaceCO2(SupplementaryFigs.S2–S3).GlobalCH4andN2OforcingdataunderCNCNscenarioBecausebothCH4andN2O,twootherkindsofgreenhousegases,areemittedalongwiththefossilfuelproduction,transportationorcom-bustionandotheranthropogenicactivities9,34,changesinCH4andN2OconcomitantwithCNCNarealsoincorporatedtodrivetheCESM(referredtoasCNCNext).UndertheCNCNextscenario,China’scumu-lativeCH4emissionsduringtheperiod2015-2100havedifferencesof−785,810,3552,and661MtCH4comparedtothedefaultSSP1-2.6,Articlehttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33047-9NatureCommunications(2022)13:53155SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0andSSP5-8.5,respectively.Incontrast,theCNCNextscenarioresultsinchangesincumulativeN2Oemissionsof−19.4,8.2,24.1and30.4MtN2OcomparedtothefourdefaultSSPs,respectively.BothCH4andN2OforcingdataoftheCESMareprescribedasgloballyuniformsurfaceconcentrations,ratherthantheirsurfaceﬂuxes.ConversionfromﬂuxestoconcentrationsgenerallyrequiresrunningasimpleclimatemodellikeMAGICC35.UnderscenariosoffourdefaultSSPs,concentrationsofCH4andN2Ocanbeeasilyextracted.However,reimplementinganMAGICCfortheCNCNscenarioessen-tiallyinvolvesalargenumberofsimulationtasks.Fortunately,dependencesofbothCH4andN2Oconcentrationsontheircumulativeemissionsinthetroposphereduringtheperiod2015-2100canbeempiricallyﬁttedbycubicfunctionsforfourSSPsunderthedefaultCMIP6scenario(R2closeto1,SupplementaryFig.S5),althoughtheirﬁttingequationsarelargelydifferentamongvariablesandSSPs,sowehavehighconﬁdenceinderivingcorrespondingsurfaceconcentra-tionsofCH4andN2Obasedontheircumulativeemissionsduringaspeciﬁedperiod(2015–2100)(SupplementaryFig.S5).AsChinahasyetspeciﬁednon-CO2GHGemissionreductiontargetsandtimelinesforGHGneutrality,theGlobalChangeAssessmentModel36(GCAM,version5.4)isusedtoprojectemissionsofCH4andN2OundertheCNCNscenariofrom2015to2100,inwhichemissionsofCO2undertheCNCNscenarioareusedasconstraints,andanequalmarginalcostofemissionreductionsbetweenCO2andnon-CO2GHGsisassumed.Therefore,concentrationsofCH4andN2OcanbederivedunderbothscenariosofthedefaultCMIP6andCNCN(SupplementaryFig.S6).SuchCESMsimulationsdrivenbycombinedvariationsinCO2,CH4andN2OundertheCNCNscenariorepresenttheCNCNextscenario,whosedifferencesinsimulatedGSMTfromCNCNsimulationsareregardedasrelativecontributionstoglobalwarmingbybothCH4andN2ObutthosedifferencesinsimulatedGMSTfromthedefaultCMIP6simulationsareregardedascontributionsbyCNCNext.PriorvalidationofthecommunityearthsystemmodelPriortobeginningsimulations,theCESM2.1.3wasrunwithfullycoupledcomponentsfromboth1850and1900to2014,andnosig-niﬁcantdifferenceinthesimulatedGMSTwasfound(SupplementaryFig.S8),whichallowedustousethespin-upsimulationfrom1850to2014forthestart-upsimulation.ThesimulatedGMSTfromspin-uprunswasalsocomparedwiththreeglobalhistoricaltemperaturedatasets,andtheconsistencyidentiﬁedbycross-corelationwashigh(Rrangingfrom0.78to0.99)(SupplementaryFig.S9),provingtherobustnessofthemodelinsimulatingtheresponseofglobalmeantemperaturetoanthropogenicCO2emissions.DataavailabilityDatasetoffutureCH4andN2OemissionsfordifferentSSPsarearchivedinIIASAwebsite(https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb).DuetotheextremelylargesizeoftheoutputrawdatafromCESMsimulations,theseﬁleswerenotdepositedinapublicrepository,butareavailablefromthecorrespondingauthorsonreasonablerequest.CodeavailabilityTheRcodesforvisualizingtheresultsinthisstudyareavailablefromthecorrespondingauthorsonrequest.Refere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