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Contents

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 61 02

Foreword

RECAI 61

PPA index

Key developments

Analysis

Regional focus

Data and

methodology

Contacts

Normalized index

Foreword

RECAI 61

Renewables highlights

from around the world

Key developments

How market actions are

impacting the global

journey toward net zero

Analysis

India: working round the clock

to cement its investible position

in renewable energy

Regional focus

RECAI 61

Normalized index

PPA Index

Data and methodology

Contacts

Normalized index

PPA index

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 61 03

Ben Warren

RECAI Chief editor

Partner, Renewables Corporate Finance,

Ernst & Young LLP

Foreword

• ●Thelimitationsofrelyingonimported

energyhavebeenhighlightedbyrecent

worldeventsandmarkets’strengthened

commitmenttoenergysecurity.

• ●Thecurrenteconomicclimate,withits

inationarypressures,couldfacilitate

spendingandincentivesforinfrastructure

projects,enablingevengreater

opportunitiesfortherenewablesindustry

toturbochargegreenenergydemand.

• ●Innovative,game-changingpolicy—

includingtheUSInationReduction

Act—issettoboostabroadrangeof

assetclasses.

• TheActhasacceleratedinvestmentinto

cleanenergy(andotherdecarbonization

investments),butriskscausingan

imbalanceininternationalcapital

allocation.

• Playerslookingtoourishinthisnew

environmentwillneedaccesstoexible

capitalandthefullenergyvaluechain,plus

agilitytooperateinmultiplejurisdictions.

• ●Indiaisconsolidatingitsleadingposition

forsolarandisonitswaytobecomingan

exporterofgreenammoniaandhydrogen.

Keytakeaways

No one said the path to net zero would be

a smooth one. Decarbonizing our world

is, undoubtedly, the biggest challenge of

the century. It will require all hands on

deck; a plethora of hurdles will need to be

overcome, and courageous decisions will

have to be made.

Indeed,headwindshaveemergedinthecurrent

macroeconomicenvironment,highlightedby

risinginterestrates,insecurityofsupplychains

and the increasing cost of renewables project

development.Theenergycrisis,sparkedbythe

warinUkraine,alsoservesasarmreminderof

thelimitationsofinterdependentpowermarkets

andtheissuesthatcanarisefromarelianceon

importedenergy.Meanwhile,thecommitmentto

energysecurityhasneverbeenstronger.

Atthesametime,weareseeingsignsofa

mid-yearrecession—and,giventhatsuch

anenvironmenttypicallyfacilitatesspending

andincentivesforinfrastructureprojects,a

generationalopportunityhasemergedforthe

renewablesindustrytoturbochargegreenenergy

demandmorethansubsidieshaveinthepast.

Forlargereconomies,itcouldevendrivegrowth

throughscalingupcapacityinthepushforenergy

independence.

Consequently,tailwindshaveemergedinthe

formofinnovative,game-changingpolicy,the

mostprominentofwhichistheUSInation

ReductionAct(theAct),whichearmarksa

combinedUS$369bforinvestmentinenergy

securityandclimatechange.1 In this edition

ofRECAI,weexploretheimpactandinuence

oftheActonrenewablesinvestmentactivity

acrossglobalmarkets.

Abroadrangeofrenewableenergysources,

vectorsandapplications—fromwindandsolarto

newerinnovationssuchashydrogenandelectric

vehicles(EVs)—willgetamajorboostfromtax

credits,andnewinvestmentopportunitieshave

beensparkedthroughoutthesupplychain.It’s

earlydays—theActwaspassedinAugust2022

—but,initsrstsixmonths,morethanUS$90b2

ofcapitalinvestmenthasoodedintoUSclean

energydevelopment.3Giventhat,in2022,a

totalofUS$50b4wasinvested,ofwhichUS$40b

cameinthethreemonthsaftertheAct’spassage,

itscolossalroleincatalyzinginvestmentin

renewablescannotbeoverstated.

Equallyimportantisthatthelegislationhas

sparkedaracetothetopamonginternational

marketseagertoboostthecompetitiveness

oftheirrenewablesindustry.Forinstance,

in response to the Act, the European Union

announced its Green Deal Industrial Plan,5 which

offerssupportforthedevelopmentofgreen

technologies,withatargettomanufacture40%

oftheproductsandequipmentitneedsfornet-

zerotechnologies.

Indiahasalsosteppedupinvestmentand

aggressivelyraisedtargetsforitsrenewables

industry.ThiseditionofRECAItakesadeeper

diveintodevelopmentsthereasthemarket

aimstobecomeasignicantexporterofgreen

ammoniaandhydrogen.

Ofcourse,itwouldberemissnottoacknowledge

thatthecurrentpathtonetzerocomeswith

risks.TheActintensiescompetitionforcapital,

andsomemarketscouldbeleftfurtherbehind.

Domesticrenewableenergysupplychainscould

acceleratemarkets’broadereconomies,butthe

increasedpressureonsupplychainswillrequire

newpartnershipstobedeveloped,andthiswill

takesometime.

Increasedcompetitionwillacceleratetheenergy

transition,however,asexempliedbythefact

thatglobalinvestmentinenergytransition

technologiesrose19%in2022,toarecord

high.6Thiswillspeedupdevelopmentofnascent

greentechnologiesthatwillbenettheworldby

combatingclimatechange.

Withpolicysupportforrenewablesbolsteredin

numerousmarkets,auniqueopportunityhas

emergedfortheindustry,worldwide,todouble

downoneffortstostimulaterenewablessupply

anddemandandaccelerateeconomies.

Theremaybesometwistsandturnstonavigate

ontheroadtonetzero,butthepathisbecoming

clearer,andthespeedoftravelisincreasing.

Arnaud de Giovanni

EY Global Renewables Leader

Foreword

RECAI 61

PPA index

Key developments

Analysis

Regional focus

Data and

methodology

Contacts

Normalized index

Foreword

/31

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StartContents0405ForewordRECAI6103RECAI61NormalizedindexNormalizedindexPPAindexForeword0713KeydevelopmentsAnalysis06KeydevelopmentsAnalysisRegionalfocusDataandPPAindexRenewableshighlightsHowmarketactionsaremethodologyfromaroundtheworldimpactingtheglobalContactsjourneytowardnetzero182127RegionalfocusDataandmethodologyContactsIndia:workingroundtheclockRECAI61tocementitsinvestiblepositionNormalizedindexinrenewableenergyPPAIndexRenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6102ForewordNoonesaidthepathtonetzerowouldbeAtthesametime,weareseeingsignsofaEquallyimportantisthatthelegislationhasKeytakeawaysForewordasmoothone.Decarbonizingourworldmid-yearrecession—and,giventhatsuchsparkedaracetothetopamonginternationalRECAI61is,undoubtedly,thebiggestchallengeofanenvironmenttypicallyfacilitatesspendingmarketseagertoboostthecompetitiveness•T●helimitationsofrelyingonimportedNormalizedindexthecentury.Itwillrequireallhandsonandincentivesforinfrastructureprojects,aoftheirrenewablesindustry.Forinstance,energyhavebeenhighlightedbyrecentPPAindexdeck;aplethoraofhurdleswillneedtobegenerationalopportunityhasemergedfortheinresponsetotheAct,theEuropeanUnionworldeventsandmarkets’strengthenedKeydevelopmentsovercome,andcourageousdecisionswillrenewablesindustrytoturbochargegreenenergyannounceditsGreenDealIndustrialPlan,5whichcommitmenttoenergysecurity.Analysishavetobemade.demandmorethansubsidieshaveinthepast.offerssupportforthedevelopmentofgreenRegionalfocusForlargereconomies,itcouldevendrivegrowthtechnologies,withatargettomanufacture40%•T●hecurrenteconomicclimate,withitsDataandIndeed,headwindshaveemergedinthecurrentthroughscalingupcapacityinthepushforenergyoftheproductsandequipmentitneedsfornet-inflationarypressures,couldfacilitatemethodologymacroeconomicenvironment,highlightedbyindependence.zerotechnologies.spendingandincentivesforinfrastructureContactsrisinginterestrates,insecurityofsupplychainsprojects,enablingevengreaterandtheincreasingcostofrenewablesprojectConsequently,tailwindshaveemergedintheIndiahasalsosteppedupinvestmentandopportunitiesfortherenewablesindustrydevelopment.Theenergycrisis,sparkedbytheformofinnovative,game-changingpolicy,theaggressivelyraisedtargetsforitsrenewablestoturbochargegreenenergydemand.warinUkraine,alsoservesasafirmreminderofmostprominentofwhichistheUSInflationindustry.ThiseditionofRECAItakesadeeperthelimitationsofinterdependentpowermarketsReductionAct(theAct),whichearmarksadiveintodevelopmentsthereasthemarket•I●nnovative,game-changingpolicy—andtheissuesthatcanarisefromarelianceoncombinedUS$369bforinvestmentinenergyaimstobecomeasignificantexporterofgreenincludingtheUSInflationReductionimportedenergy.Meanwhile,thecommitmenttosecurityandclimatechange.1Inthiseditionammoniaandhydrogen.Act—issettoboostabroadrangeofenergysecurityhasneverbeenstronger.ofRECAI,weexploretheimpactandinfluenceassetclasses.oftheActonrenewablesinvestmentactivityOfcourse,itwouldberemissnottoacknowledgeArnauddeGiovanniacrossglobalmarkets.thatthecurrentpathtonetzerocomeswith•TheActhasacceleratedinvestmentintorisks.TheActintensifiescompetitionforcapital,cleanenergy(andotherdecarbonizationEYGlobalRenewablesLeaderAbroadrangeofrenewableenergysources,andsomemarketscouldbeleftfurtherbehind.investments),butriskscausinganvectorsandapplications—fromwindandsolartoDomesticrenewableenergysupplychainscouldimbalanceininternationalcapitalBenWarrennewerinnovationssuchashydrogenandelectricacceleratemarkets’broadereconomies,buttheallocation.vehicles(EVs)—willgetamajorboostfromtaxincreasedpressureonsupplychainswillrequireRECAIChiefeditorcredits,andnewinvestmentopportunitieshavenewpartnershipstobedeveloped,andthiswill•PlayerslookingtoflourishinthisnewPartner,RenewablesCorporateFinance,beensparkedthroughoutthesupplychain.It’stakesometime.environmentwillneedaccesstoflexibleErnst&YoungLLPearlydays—theActwaspassedinAugust2022capitalandthefullenergyvaluechain,plus—but,initsfirstsixmonths,morethanUS$90b2Increasedcompetitionwillacceleratetheenergyagilitytooperateinmultiplejurisdictions.ofcapitalinvestmenthasfloodedintoUScleantransition,however,asexemplifiedbythefactenergydevelopment.3Giventhat,in2022,athatglobalinvestmentinenergytransition•I●ndiaisconsolidatingitsleadingpositiontotalofUS$50b4wasinvested,ofwhichUS$40btechnologiesrose19%in2022,toarecordforsolarandisonitswaytobecomingancameinthethreemonthsaftertheAct’spassage,high.6Thiswillspeedupdevelopmentofnascentexporterofgreenammoniaandhydrogen.itscolossalroleincatalyzinginvestmentingreentechnologiesthatwillbenefittheworldbyrenewablescannotbeoverstated.combatingclimatechange.Withpolicysupportforrenewablesbolsteredinnumerousmarkets,auniqueopportunityhasemergedfortheindustry,worldwide,todoubledownoneffortstostimulaterenewablessupplyanddemandandaccelerateeconomies.Theremaybesometwistsandturnstonavigateontheroadtonetzero,butthepathisbecomingclearer,andthespeedoftravelisincreasing.RenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6103RECAI61IndexUSGermany+1Germany+3PortugalSince2003,thebiannualRECAIhas12ChinaMainlandThemarketissettocontinueacceleratingTheenvironmentministerhasstatedthatrankedtheworld’stop40marketsonexpansionofitssolarphotovoltaictheenergyindustrycanexpecttoseetheattractivenessoftheirrenewable133(PV)sectorasacoreelementofits€60b(US$66b)ofinvestmentby2030,Forewordenergyinvestmentanddeploymentdecarbonizationstrategy,withthewhileincreasingwindandsolarcapacitybyRECAI61opportunities.Therankingsreflectour4UKgovernmentsettingtargetsof11GW3.4GWand6.4GWrespectively.PortugalisNormalizedindexassessmentsofmarketattractivenessandofground-basedand11GWofrooftopalsosettolaunchanauctioncoveringthePPAindexglobalmarkettrends.5Franceinstallationsperyearfrom2026.Therightstosellhydrogentothenationalgrid.11KeydevelopmentsenergyministerhasalsoannouncedAnalysisIndiaplanstosubsidizethedecarbonizationof+2SaudiArabiaRegionalfocusenergy-intensiveindustry.7Dataand6Themarkethaslaunchedthedevelopmentmethodology+1Netherlandsoftheworld’slargestsolarPVplant,atContacts7Australiaaround2GWbytheendof2025,aspartAnewtargetof3GWofoffshorefloatingofplanstoinstall27.5GWofnewsolar2Spainsolarcapacityhasbeenannouncedaspartcapacityby2030.TheKingdomisalsodue4ofa€28b(US$30.7b)packagetoachievetolaunchitsgreenhousegascertificates582030climatetargets.Themarkethasmarketthisyear,whilelaunching7alsoreachedits6GWonshorewindtarget,renewablescapacitytendersbackedbythe9Netherlandswithafurther800MWduetocomeonlinePublicInvestmentFund.126during2023.8-4ArgentinaJordan4400Increasedattractivenesscompared810Japan+3Canadawithpreviousindex1011DenmarkArgentinaiscommittedtogrowing389Planstoleaseplotsfor5GWofoffshorerenewables,butitsenergygridisthoughtwindprojectsby2026havebeensetintobeinsufficienttosupportafurtherSaudiArabia39motionintheprovinceofNovaScotia,withsignificantrolloutofrenewablescapacity,theprojectstargetedforoperationbythewithrecentinvestmentingenerating41endofthedecade.Thegovernmenthasalsocapacitynotmatchedbyinfrastructure.introducedrefundabletaxcreditsforcapitalGiventhepotentialofsolarinthenorthThailand3840Decreasedattractivenesscompared11costsonnew-buildrenewablesprojects.9ofthemarketandwindinthesouth,gridSouthAfrica3737capacityintheseareasisakeyissue.13withpreviousindex1512Canada+3Turkey-1AustraliaVietnam3636Nproevcihoaunsgiendinexattractivenesssince1313IrelandThegovernmenthasissuednew10-yearfeed-intariffsforrenewableenergyprojectsDespite2022beingarecordyearfor3317installedbetween2021and2030,withrenewableenergyprojectcommitments,31anextrafiveyearsforsolarprojectsusingAustraliaiscurrentlynotonpacetoMexico35Currentrankingshownincircleswith1214ChilecomponentsproducedinTurkey.ThisreachthefederalgovernmenttargetofSwitzerland3427previousrankingnotedatthebottomsupportsplanstodecarbonizetheenergy82%renewablegenerationby2030,withofeachsegment1615Italymixto65%renewablesourcesby2030,deploymentratesrequiredtoatleast18requiring53GWofsolarPVby2035.10doubletoachievethis.14Philippines3335141621Seepage23forRECAImethodology.Kazakhstan3234Greece26192017Norway3132202922Poland3030252823241918Argentina29BrazilAustria28IsraelEgypt2725242321Sweden2622TurkeyFinlandTaiwanBelgiumPortugalSouthKoreaMoroccoRecentglobaltrendshavehadasignificantanddirecteffectonrenewableenergymarketsthroughboththegascrisisandsupplychainconcerns.ToensureamorerelevantandappropriatereflectionofthecurrentinvestmentclimatetheRECAIteamhasadjustedthemodeltobemorereflectiveofthemacroeconomicfactorsdrivingtheattractivenessofindividualmarkets.Themodelnowhasanincreasedweightingforthemacrofundamentalspillar,whichfactorsintheeconomicstability,easeofdoingbusinessandinvestmentclimatewithinmarkets.RenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6104NormalizedindexTheRECAIusesvariouscriteriatocomparetheattractivenessofrenewablesmarkets,suchasthemagnitudeofthe+1GreeceForeworddevelopmentpipeline,thatreflecttheabsolutesizeoftherenewableinvestmentopportunity.Hence,theindexnaturallyRECAI61benefitslargeeconomies.However,bynormalizingwiththegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)wecanseewhichmarketsareThegovernmentcontinuestoimplementpolicytosupporttheNormalizedindexperformingaboveexpectationsfortheireconomicsize.growthofrenewableenergy.WiththeannouncementofitsnewPPAindexsolar-plus-storagescheme,residentialandagriculturalconsumersKeydevelopmentsInthisway,thenormalizedindexhelpsrevealambitiousplansforenergytransitioninsmallereconomies,creatingsomewillbeabletoclaimsubsidiestocoverupto65%oftheinstallationAnalysisattractivealternativesforpotentialinvestors.costofrooftoppanelsandbatteries.PolicyhasalsoemergedtoRegionalfocusallowoldoperatingwindturbinestobemovedtoisolatedislands,DataandNormalizedMarketPreviousMovementvs.RECAINormalizedMarketPreviousMovementvs.RECAItoboostrenewablesproductionattheselocationsandextendthemethodologyrankingrankingpreviousrankingrankingrankingpreviousrankingusefullifeoftheturbines.15Contacts1Greece21621Canada3612+01Chile123242Morocco31122Belgium2060Chilecontinuestoestablishitselfasaleaderintherenewableenergy44033industry.Drivenbystronggovernmentbuy-in,naturalresource3Denmark51423Honduras2131andtheuseofglobalpartnerships,ithasbecomeanattractive70729destinationforforeigninvestment.Targetsof80%renewable4Jordan61324Philippines1946energyby2030andcarbonneutralityby2050areambitious,100226andwillrequirethemarkettobuilduponitsexistinginfrastructure5Chile92125Norway4359investmentcommitmenttoensuretherenewableenergyproduced82201canbedistributedappropriatelyacrossthecountry.166Australia130526Austria3415120437+01Finland7Ireland140827Kenya2830110903Finnishonshorewindcapacitygrewby75%lastyear(2.4GWof8Germany161928Taiwan3848newinstalledturbines),drivenbydomesticandforeigninvestment.150636WindisnowFinland’ssinglelargestdriverofforeigninvestment,9Finland171729Tunisia2310whichwillbecoretothegovernment’stargetofcarbonneutrality223218by2030.Themarkethasalsoenteredintoacross-bordertender10Portugal182030UnitedStates3156forrenewableenergyaspartoftheEUrenewableenergyfinancing272841mechanism,whichwillallowforupto400MWofsolarPVprojects11France31Italy24tobebuiltinFinland.1712UK32SouthAfrica41+4Kazakhstan13Spain33Argentina25Tocreateamoreattractiveenvironmentforinvestorsandinstall6.5GWofrenewablescapacityby2035,Kazakhstanhasannounced14Netherlands34ChinaMainland29thatitintendstoimproveitsregulatoryframework.Furthermore,ithasidentifiedthepotentialofgreenhydrogenandsetitssightson15Israel35DominicanRepublic26becominganetexporterofthefuelbythestartofthe2030s.Thegovernmenthassignedanagreementtobeginthedevelopmentof16India36Vietnam39a20GWgreenhydrogenplant,whichisexpectedtoproduceuptotwomilliontonnesperyear.1817Poland37Japan32Seepage24fornormalizedRECAImethodology.18Kazakhstan38Brazil3019Sweden39Panama3320Egypt40Peru49RenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6105PPAIndexGermanyCorporatePPAmarketridesoutForthefirsttimesincetheEYPPAIndexbegan,SpainhasbeenknockedoffthetopspotbyarisingPPAstar.SinceOctoberabumpyyeartocomeoutontopGermany2021,GermanyhassteadilymovedupthePPAIndex,fromForewordinEuropeSpainfourthposition,andPPAsarenowenablingthemarket’sRECAI61transitiontorenewablesforenergysecurity,aswellashelpingNormalizedindex12UStoreducecostsanddecarbonize.OffshorewinddealsplayaPPAindexkeyroleinGermanPPAs,especiallyforlargeindustrials.ForKeydevelopments3UKsmallercorporates,onshorewindandsolarPVarethemainAnalysistechnologies.Feed-intariffs,andthengovernmenttenders,RegionalfocusDuring2022,corporatepowerPhysicalandsleevedPPAsare4Franceusedtobethepreferredchoiceofdevelopers,butPPAsareDataandpurchaseagreements(PPAs)becominglesspopular,as“shaping”nowequallyattractive.methodologysignificantlyovertookutilitycostshavespiraled,whilepay-as-5ContactsPPAsinEurope,bothintermsofproducedvirtualPPAsarenowtheUScapacity(7GWof8.4GW)anddealnorminmanyderegulatedmarkets.Australiacount(129of161deals).19This6StaticatNo.3inourglobalPPAIndex,theUSwastheoriginoftrendisexpectedtodevelopinPPAsandhasbeentheirpowerhouseformorethanadecadeotherpartsoftheworld.21Indianow.TherecentInflationReductionAct,whichisspurring37theUSrenewablesinvestmentmarket,isexpectedtodriveIthasnotbeenaneasyride4growthofPPAsfurther.Itwasanotherrecordyearin2022,forcorporatesinthepast6Denmarkwith16.9GWofPPAs,ofwhichatleasthalfwerevialargeyear,however,withvolatile,8technologycompanies.20Aninterestingdevelopmenthasbeensky-highpricing—plusproject5theriseofvPPAsforScope3reductionofcorporatesuppliers’scarcity—flippingthemarketemissions,asopposedtothetypicalScope2corporate’sowninsellers’favor.InflationalsoIncreasedattractivenesscompared89Netherlandsoperationalemissions.affectedPPApricingstructures,withpreviousindex710Poland9PolandDecreasedattractivenesscompared15withpreviousindexJumpingfiveplacesintothetop10,Polandwasthefourth-largestPPAmarketinEuropein2022,behindSpain,withfewdevelopersagreeingNochangeinattractivenesssince1011SwedenGermanyandtheUK.Withmanycompanieshavingsignificanttonoindexation—butthis12FinlandmanufacturingoperationsinPoland,andwithacarbon-heavyrequirementhaseased,withmostAustria30previousindex13Italygrid,thereisastrongdriverforrenewablePPAs.Butthefuturenowofferingflatnominalpricing.Lithuania2914Brazilisnotplainsailing.Inlate2022,thegovernmentintroduceda1115Norwayhardcaponpowerproducers,includingRESpricingtoprotectDuringearly2023,asglobalJapanconsumercosts,butthisledtogreatuncertaintyforPPAs,marketscalmed,priceshave29Newentryandanumberofdealswerepaused.Thiscapisexpectedtobeeasedconsiderably,andtheremovedattheendof2023,whichshouldcomeaswelcomePPAmarketisbecomingmoreCurrentrankingshownincircleswith12newstopendingdeals.balancedagain.Withwholesalepowerpricefuturesgenerally28previousrankingnotedatthebottom13Irelandreducingcomparedwithcurrentpricesinmanymarkets,someRomania2825ofeachsegment14ArelativenewcomertoPPAs,Irelandisnowseeinggrowingcountriesbeingatriskof27interest,especiallyamonglargedatacenterandpharmaceuticalincreasedcannibalizationof24companieswithsignificantfootprintsinthemarket.Itsrenewables’captureprices,andEthopia272617four-rankriseinthiseditionofRECAIisbasedonseveraldevelopersneedinglong-term2016recentdealsandtheforthcomingpipeline.Ireland’sClimaterevenuesecurity,thepowerofa26221923ActionPlanalsoaimsfor15%ofthemarket’selectricitytobelong-termPPAissendingsellersGreece1821deliveredthroughPPAsby2030.In2022,therewas647MWbacktocorporates.ofPPAsinIreland,21competingwithitsRenewableEnergy2516SupportSchemeauctionsystem.Thailand2417Seepage26forPPAmethodology.Morocco2318Chile22212019PortugalBelgiumEgyptIrelandColombiaSouthAfricaRenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6106Keydevelopments1Nochange2Up14Nochange5NochangeForewordRECAI61RenewableshighlightsRECAIrankingRECAIrankingRECAIrankingRECAIrankingNormalizedindexfromaroundtheworldPPAindex10Down113Nochange28Up130Down4KeydevelopmentsDevelopingpoliciestoencouragethebuild-outofrenewablesAnalysishasrisentothetopofmanygovernments’agendas,andthisRECAIrankingRECAIrankingRECAIrankingRECAIrankingRegionalfocuspushforenergysecurityinarecessionaryenvironmenthasDataandcreatedaviableopportunityforsignificantinvestment.Here,methodologywelookatkeydevelopmentswithin10globalmarkets—ContactsfromEgypt’sambitionsforitsonshorewindsectortoJapan’spushtoincreaseitsshareofthesolarPVmarket.31Up336NochangeRECAIrankingRECAIrankingRenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6107Keydevelopments1NochangeUS:Connectionandconstructiondelaysslow2Up1Germany:OffshorewindtenderlaunchedamidForewordenergytransitionpowermarketreformsRECAI61RECAIrankingRECAIrankingNormalizedindexTheUS’sjourneytonetzerohasnotbeenhelpedbyagridlockofrenewableenergyGermanyclimbsoneplacetosecondpositionforthefirsttimeinadecade,PPAindexprojectswaitingforconnectiontoregionalgrids.SevenleadingregionalgridsovertakingChinaMainlandintheindex.ThemarkethaslaunchedatenderforKeydevelopmentsreportedlargeinterconnectionqueues,totaling1TW,attheendof2022.Solarwastwooffshorewindlotsof900MWeachintheseabedareasofftheNorderneyAnalysisthetechnologywiththemostcapacityinqueues—almost360GW—whilestandaloneshore.Thebiddeadlineis1August2023,withdevelopmentrightsexpectedtoRegionalfocusbatterystoragehad258GW.22begrantedinthefirstquarterof2024andthewindfarmsfullyoperationalbyDataand2028.25Germanyboastsoffshorewindpowercapacityof7GWandhasatargetofmethodologyDespitesignificantgrowthofthemarket’soffshorewindsector,theBidenreaching30GWby2030.26Contactsadministration’sambitiousgoalofhaving30GWofoffshorewindpoweroperatingby2030islikelytobemissedby10GW,accordingtocurrentconstructiondatesGermanyalsocontinuestoacceleratepowermarketreform,transitioningawayannouncedbydevelopers.Thetargetcouldstillbemet,however,ifnewleaseareasarefromfossilfuelsasitpushestoachieveitsgoalofrenewablescomprising80%developedfasterandthereareadditionalinvestmentsinsupportinginfrastructureandofitspowermixby2030.Currently,renewableenergyaccountsfor46%ofthesupplychain.23market’spowerconsumption,upfrom41%atthestartof2022.27TheUS’sEVsectorhasreceivedaboost,meanwhile,withUS$2.5bofnewfundingInDecember2022,theEuropeanCommissionapprovedGermany’srenewableannouncedinMarchtosupportEVchargingandhydrogeninfrastructurethroughtheenergyact(EEG2023),whichincludesabudgetof€28b(US$30.5b)andprovidesChargingandFuelingInfrastructureDiscretionaryGrantProgram,establishedbytheaidtosupportproductionofrenewableenergythroughamarketpremiumpaidbyBipartisanInfrastructureLaw.Grantswillbeprovidedoverfiveyearstocities,counties,thenetworkoperatortotheproducer,ontopofthemarketprice.28localgovernmentsandTribesthroughaCommunityProgram,whileaCorridorProgramwillsupportdevelopmentofhydrogeninfrastructurealongdesignatedInApril2023,Germanyceasedoperationsatitslastthreeremainingnuclearalternativefuelcorridors.powerplants.29Whilethisisamajormilestoneinitsprogresstoacceleratedenergytransitiontargets,thereislikelytobeanincreaseintheuseofcoalintheshortTheprogramwillhelpboosttheUS’sgoalofadding500,000publicEVchargingterm,toreducetheeffectsofintermittencyinthepowersupply.30stationsby2030.24InthiseditionofRECAI,weexplorethelikelyglobalimpactandinfluenceoftheUSInflationReductionActpolicy:seepage13ofthisreport.RenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6108Keydevelopments4NochangeUK:Greenhydrogencertificationplannedfor20255NochangeFrance:Progressonoffshorewind,butstilltrailingonForewordrenewablestargetsRECAI61RECAIrankingSeekingtoincreaseinvestmentinthegrowinggreenhydrogenmarket,theUKRECAIrankingNormalizedindexplanstodevelopagloballyrecognizedcertificationschemeforgreenhydrogenFrancehastakenstepsforwardinitsoffshorewinddevelopment,withthePPAindexproductionby2025.Thegovernmentwillconsultwithindustryonthescheme,selection,inMarch2023,ofEDFRenewablesandMaplePowerasthewinningKeydevelopmentswhichaimstobuildtransparencyandconfidenceinthisnascentsector.31bidinthefourthoffshorewindtendertobuildthemarket’sbiggestoffshoreAnalysiswindfarm.TheCentreManche1windfarm,offthecoastofNormandy,willRegionalfocusMeanwhile,inthemarket’sfifthContractsforDifference(CfD)schemeround,haveacapacityof1GW,enoughtopower800,000homes.TheprojectwasDataandabudgetof£205m(US$255m)hasbeenconfirmed.Itwillinclude£170mawardedatatariffof€44.9/MWh(US$49/MWh).34methodology(US$211m)reservedforestablishedtechnologies,which,forthefirsttime,Contactsincludesoffshorewind.Additionally,£35m(US$44m)willbesetasideforDespitethis,Francestillneedstorampupitsgreenenergysector.Theshareofemergingtechnologies.Resultsoftheauctionareexpectedtoberevealedinrenewablesintheelectricitymixrosebyjust1%lastyear,from25%in2021tolatesummer2023.3226%in2022.35Onshorewindisoneareathathasbeenstalling.Themarket’slastonshorewindauctionwassupposedtoaddnearly1GWofcapacity,butWhiletheUK’soffshorewindsectorcontinuestogrow,playersinthemarket’sonlyfouroutof60projectswereawarded,withatotalcapacityof56MW.onshorewindsectorarecallingforreformstotheplanningsystem.RulesonAconvolutedandunclearinstructionprocesswasblamedforthemassivecommunityconsenthaveseverelylimiteddevelopment,particularlyinEngland,undersubscription.36whereonlytwosmallturbineswereinstalledin2022.33Solarhasseengrowth,withinstalledPVcapacityrisingto15.8GW,butthecurrentpacewouldachieveabout31GWby2028,wellshortofFrance’sgoalofbetween35GWand44GW.37Recognizingthatlengthypermittingprocedureshavebeenahindrance,France’sNationalAssemblyandSenatepassedtheRenewableEnergyAccelerationBillinFebruary,simplifyingapplicationsandpermitting,andlimitingappeals.Thelegislationalsogiveslocalmunicipalitiestheauthoritytoidentifyrenewableaccelerationzones,wherepermittingwillbeexpeditedtobetweenoneandthreemonths.38RenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6109Keydevelopments10Down1Japan:SolarPVandoffshorewindprimedforgrowth13NochangeIreland:CountingonoffshorewindForewordRECAI61RECAIrankingJapanhaslongbeenaleaderinsolarPVinnovation.In2007,itwasthefirstRECAIrankingIrelandhasambitiousplanstoinstall7GWofoffshorewindpowerby2030andNormalizedindexmarketintheworldtobuildafloatingsolarinstallation,anditcurrentlytrails37GWby2050,representingaboldvisionforamarketthatcurrentlyhasonlyPPAindexonlyChinaandtheUSininstalledsolarcapacity,expectingtotop90GWbefore25MWofoffshorewindcapacityand4.3GWofonshorewindfarms.43Keydevelopmentstheendof2023.39AnalysisOn11May,fourprojectstotaling3GWwereannouncedassuccessfulinRegionalfocusBlessedwithsomeofthemostinnovativecompaniesinthesector,suchasIreland’sfirstoffshorewindauction.Theaveragepriceof€86.05/MWhDataandPanasonicandMitsubishi,Japanhaslongpossessedthetechnologicalknow-(US$94.55/MWh)wasviewedashugelycompetitiveandoneofthelowestmethodologyhow.Now,amidgrowingtradetensionsbetweentheUSandChina—theworld’spricespaidbyanemergingoffshorewindmarket.Altogether,theprojectsContactsbiggestproducerofsolarpanels—Japanisinaperfectpositiontotakeanwillproducemorethan12TWh/year,whichismorethanone-thirdofIreland’sincreasingshareofthemarket.Itisseekingtoimportmoresilicon,toboostitselectricityconsumption.Theauctionhadbeenopentosixoffshorewindproductionofsolartechnology.projects,andthetwounsuccessfulonesarestilleligibletosecurearoutetomarketthroughacorporatePPAorafutureauction.44Japan’soffshorewindmarketisalsoexpectedtoexperiencesignificantgrowth.Afterthegovernment’srecentrevisionofguidelinesforthesecondroundofInMay,IrelandalsoannouncedplanstocreatetheNationalIndustrialStrategyoffshorewindauctions,momentumhasbeenpickingup.Theauction,whichforOffshoreWind,whichisexpectedtobepublishedinthefirstquarterofcloseson30June,willselectoperatorsforfournewareascapableofgenerating2024.Itwillseektodevelopsupplychainopportunitiesandreducerisksfrom1.8GW.40Currentcapacitysitsat190MW,withthemarket’sfirstcommercial-bottlenecks,whilealsointroducingmeasurestodeveloplocalandexportscaleoffshorewindprojectscommissionedinDecember2022andJanuarydemandforoffshorewindenergy,andestablishclustersofeconomicactivity2023.41Japan’sambitiousplansseektoadd10GWofoffshorewindcapacitybyfortheoffshorewindsector.452030,andbetween35GWand45GWby2040.42RenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6110Keydevelopments28Up1Egypt:Eyeingaleadingpositioninwindenergy30Down4Argentina:Firstpublictendersince2019launchedForewordRECAI61RECAIrankingEgypthashighambitionsforonshorewindandhassigned10memorandaRECAIrankingArgentinaisholdingitsfirstpublictenderforrenewableenergysince2019.TheNormalizedindexofunderstanding(MoUs)forwindpowerprojectssincethestartof2022.country’sfourthroundwasdelayedbecauseoftheCOVID-19pandemic,whileaPPAindexBy2026,4.3GWofnewinstallationswillhavecomeonline,followedbyannewprocessfortendershasnowbeenestablishedinanattempttoreignitetheKeydevelopmentsadditional1GWofcapacityannuallyafter2027,tobringEgypt’stotalinstalledindustry.Thetendercallsfor500MWfocusedonsolarPV,windandbiomass,Analysiswindcapacityto8GWby2030.Consideringitscurrentinstalledcapacityisand120MWfocusedonbiogasandsmall-scalehydropower.49Morethan2GWRegionalfocus1.7GW,thisisanenormousundertakingandwillestablishitasaleadingwindofpotentialcapacityhasbeenbidintotheprocess,withwinningbidssettoDataandenergymarketintheregion.beannouncedon6July2023.Theywillsecure15-yearsupplycontractswithmethodologyCAMMESA,theoperatorofArgentina’swholesaleelectricitymarket.50ContactsWhilehostingCOP27inNovember2022,Egyptsignedframeworkagreementsforninegreenhydrogenandammoniafacilities,whichcouldresultinuptoIn2019,inthethirdround,aminimumpriceofUS$54.22/MWhwasachieved.51US$83bbeinginvestedintothesemarkets.46EgyptisnowworkingtosignTheannouncementofafourthroundcomesatatimewhenArgentinaisonfinalagreementsonthesedeals,oneofwhich—withChinaEnergytobuildaatrajectoryforrenewablestoaccountforonly17.8%oftotalannualpowerUS$5.1bgreenhydrogenplant—hasalreadybeenapproved.47generationby2025,shortofitstargetof20%.52IndustryexpertshopethenextauctionroundwillbeexpeditedtorestoreconfidenceamonginvestorsandEgyptisseekingtoraisetheproportionofrenewablesintheenergymixstakeholders.to20%bytheendof2023,onthebackofstrongwindandsolargrowth.Amidthisgrowthinrenewables,thegovernmentisalsoexpectedtostartDespitepossessingabundantlandandidealconditionsforsolarandwindpowerdecommissioning5GWofgas-firedpowerplantsthisyear,whichisabout8%ofgeneration,thesesourcesaccountforjust1.1GW53and3.3GWrespectively.themarket’stotalgenerationcapacity.48Theyaredwarfedbythermoelectricity,whichaccountsfor25.3GW,andhydroelectricity,whichprovides10.8GW.54AsArgentinalookstoacceleraterenewableenergygenerationcapacity,itstransmissionanddistributioncapacitywillneedtobeincreasedsotheindustrycanreachitsfullpotential.RenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6111Keydevelopments31Up3Norway:Seekingtoharnessemergingrenewables36NochangeVietnam:OffshorewindcentraltoenergytransitionForewordtechnologiesRECAI61RECAIrankingRECAIrankingVietnamisturningitsattentiontountappedpotentialinoffshorewindthanksNormalizedindexNorwayhasrevealedplanstodevelopitsoffshorewindsectorwithagoaltostrongwindsandrelativelyshallowwatersnearpopulatedareas.ThemarketPPAindexofreaching30GWofcapacityby2040.InMarch,thegovernmentformallyisnowdevelopingaregulationframeworkforthesector,whichtheWorldBankKeydevelopmentslauncheditsfirstoffshoretenders,includinga1.5GWfixedfoundationandbelievescouldgenerateupto30%ofVietnam’selectricityoutputby2050.Analysisthree500MWfloatingprojects.ThetenderdeadlinesforthetwoprojectsRegionalfocusarethebeginningofAugustandSeptember2023respectively.55Aproductiontargetof7GWfromoffshorewindby2030hasbeenset,withtheDataandsector’sgrowthexpectedtoaccelerateandreachgenerationcapacityof64.5GWmethodologyAsNorwayembracesoffshorewind,ithassignaleditsintentiontodevelopby2045.57VietnamalsohopesthatthedevelopmentofitsoffshorewindcapabilityContactsotheremergingrenewableenergytechnologiesandgreenindustry.Inwillsparkgrowthinsupportingindustriesandlogisticsservices.January2023,NorwayandGermanysignedajointdeclarationtoincreasetheproductionofrenewableenergythroughcooperationinhydrogen,Aspartofitspushtoreachnetzeroby2050,VietnamhasalsojoinedtheJustbatterytechnology,andcarboncaptureandstorage.EnergyTransitionPartnership,whichincludesafinancingpackageofUS$15.5bofferedbyhigh-incomecountriestoassistthemarketinshiftingawayfromcoal.58Additionally,Norwegianstate-ownedEquinorwillcollaboratewithGermanutilityRWEtocreateanindustrialsupplychainforlow-carbonhydrogenproduction.Plansalsoincludetheconstructionofa€3b(US$3.3b)hydrogenpipelinetoconnectthetwomarkets,whichcouldbegindeliveringhydrogenasearlyas2030.56RenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6112AnalysisHowmarketactionsareimpactingtheglobaljourneyForewordtowardnetzeroDomesticcleanenergyproductionisnowapriorityforgovernmentsaroundtheRECAI61world,butwilllocalambitionhelporhinderthepushfordecarbonization?InbriefTheglobaldriveforenergysecurityandarecessionaryTheUS,forexample,isaimingtobolsteritsrenewablesGregMatlockNormalizedindexenvironmentmeantherenewablesindustryhasneverindustrywiththeInflationReductionAct,agame-PPAindex•G●overnmentsareeyeinghadabetteropportunitytoacceleratebothdemandforchangingpieceoflegislationthatoffersvariousEYAmericasEnergyTransitionandKeydevelopmentsdomesticallyproduced,low-itsproductsandprogresstowardnetzero.Governmentsincentives,creditsandgrantsforthedevelopmentandRenewableEnergyLeaderAnalysiscost,low-carbonenergyinaareplacingrenewables,aswellastraditionalenergycommercializationofgreentechnologies.TheActrisksRegionalfocusbidtoreducetheirdependencesources,atthecenteroftheirenergypolicies,andcausinganimbalanceininternationalcapitalallocation,ContributorsDataandonimportsandenhancelegislatingformarketinterventionstoaddressdomestichowever—andlocalizedsupplychainswillhavetobemethodologyenergysecurity.concernsaboutenergysupplyandaffordability.rapidlybuiltorstrengthenedtoachievenet-zerotargets.AndrewHorsteadContactsExpandingdomesticsupplychainscouldalsobekeytoEYGlobalPower&UtilitiesLeadAnalyst•T●heUSInflationReductionActWithgeopoliticaleventssuchastheongoingwarboostingmarkets’broadereconomies,helpingcreatehasacceleratedinvestmentinUkrainesendingenergycoststorecordhighs,jobs,expandvariousindustriesandincreasegrossStephanieChesnickintocleanenergy(andothergovernmentsarekeentoreducetheirrelianceondomesticproduct,aswellasenhancepeople’swelfare.61EYAmericasStrategyandTransactionsdecarbonizationinvestments),importedenergyandfindwaystoremovelinksbetweenEnergy&ResourcesLeaderbutriskscausinganimbalancenaturalgasandrenewablespricing.TheEU,forexample,ininternationalcapitalisexploringhowtodecouplegasandelectricitypricesSonalAgarwalallocation.asitworkstoacceleratetherolloutofrenewablesandAssociatePartner,StrategyandTransactions,reduceitsdependenceonimportedRussiangasviatheEYCorporateAdvisorsPte.Ltd•L●ocalizedsupplychainswillREPowerEUinitiative.59TheUKisalsolookingatenergyhavetoberapidlybuiltorreformstodelinkgasandelectricityprices.60BrunoBousquiéstrengthenedtomeetStrategyandTransactionsLeaderFrance,net-zerotargets.InterdependentlegacymarketdynamicsarenolongerErnst&YoungAdvisoryseenassustainable,whiledomesticallyproduced,low-cost,low-carbonand,insomecases,low-lead-MichaelNewmantimeenergy—usinglocaltechnology—looksmoreEYOceaniaRenewablesLeaderattractivethanever.AlexLuAssociatePartner,Ernst&YoungHuaMingLLPRenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6113AnalysisSuchgoalswilltaketimetorealize,however.notbefeltforsometimeyet,theActcanalreadypossibleforgreenhydrogenplayerstobenefitfromSofar,theActappearstobemakingprogressonForewordEconomicgrowthisforecastbytheInternationalbeseentobeincreasingrenewable(andotheracombinationoftaxcreditsforrenewablepowerachievingitsstatedgoals,andthislookssettoRECAI61MonetaryFund(IMF),initsbaselinescenario,todecarbonization-related)investmentopportunitiesgenerationandcleanhydrogenproduction.69continueasinvestorsseektotakeadvantageoftheNormalizedindexfallfrom3.4%in2022to2.8%in2023,beforeintheUS.Itprioritizesenergysecurityandclimatetaxcredits,grantsandothereconomicincentives.PPAindexreboundingslightlyto3.0%in2024.62Gregorychange,whichareduetogetacombinedinvestmentExpansionofthegreenhydrogenindustryisCertaintechnology-specificinvestmentandKeydevelopmentsDaco,EY-ParthenonChiefEconomist,StrategyofUS$369b.66expectedtohaveaknock-oneffectondemandforproductiontaxcreditshavebeenextendedbytheAnalysisandTransactions,Ernst&YoungLLP,commented:therenewableenergythatitrequiresforproduction.Actthrough2024,butwillthenbereplacedwithRegionalfocus“GlobalgrowthcontinuestoslowinthefaceofTheActisdesignedtodrive“thedevelopmentBy2030,US-basedgreenhydrogenproducersaretechnology-neutralcleanenergytaxinvestmentDataandelevatedinflation,higherinterestrates,tighterandcommercializationofnewgreentechnologies”projectedtoneedaround500GWofelectrolyzerandproductiontaxcredits.73Withrespecttothetaxmethodologyfinancialconditionsandthelingeringimpactofthroughthreebespokefocusareas:acceleratingcapacityandroughly750GWofsolarandwindcreditfortheproductionofcleanhydrogen,ortheContactsthewarinUkraine.Thethreatofglobalfinancialtheenergytransition(includingimprovingmarketpowercapacitytomeetgreenhydrogendemand.70taxcreditavailableforthecaptureandsequestrationinstabilityinthewakeoftherecentbankingturmoilcompetitiveness,efficiencyandinnovation);oruseofqualifiedcarbonoxides,suchprojectsisanadditionalriskcloudingtheoutlook.”63boostingdomesticmanufacturing;andincreasingFurther,theActincludesanumberofadditionalmayqualifyfortheupdatedincentivesaslongasthenumberofUSjobs.mechanismsfordevelopersofcertaingreenenergytheconstructionoftheapplicablefacilitiesbeganDespitesuchaslow-growthoutlook,theinvestmentorlow-carbontechnologiestomonetizetheUStaxbefore1January2033(inadditiontomeetingotherlandscapeforlow-carbontechnologieshasItiscomplementarytotheInfrastructureInvestmentcredits.Inparticular,theabilityforadevelopertorequirements).74continuedtoevolveinrecentyears,aseconomiesandJobsActpassedin2021,whichprovides“transfer”or“sell”certainUSfederalincometaxrecoverfromtheimpactsoftheCOVID-19pandemicUS$1.2tininfrastructurefundingoverfiveyears,creditsforcash(thereceiptofwhichistax-free)isa“Globalgrowthcontinuestoslow—andtheresultingpressuresonsupplychains—withafocusongridresilience,EVinfrastructuregamechanger,anditishavinganimmediateimpactwhilesettingincreasinglyambitiousdecarbonizationdevelopmentandthereductionofgreenhouseonfinancingandprojectdevelopment.Additionally,inthefaceofelevatedinflation,targets.Afteraninitialsteadydouble-digitgrowth,gases.SomeoftheprovisionsintheInflationsometax-exemptinvestors,governmententitiesandhigherinterestrates,tighterenergytransitiondealvolumesexplodedovertheReductionActincludeUS$30bworthoftaxcreditscertainotherentitiesmaybeeligibleforanewlyfinancialconditionsandthelasttwoyears,withmoregrowthexpectedascapitalallocatedtothemanufacturingofsolarpanels,windestablished“directpay”regime—anadditionallingeringimpactofthewarincontinuestoflowintothespace.InNorthAmerica,turbines,batteriesandcriticalmineralsprocessing.67monetizationvalvethataimstoenhancethecapitalUkraine.ThethreatofglobaldealvolumesacrossallinvestorsegmentsremainedTaxcreditsandgrantsworthUS$6bhavealsoattractivenessofcertaingreenenergy-relatedfinancialinstabilityinthewakestrongin2022following2021’srecordyear,thoughbeenallocatedtoemission-reductioneffortsbyinvestments.71oftherecentbankingturmoiliswithamodestreductioninoverallvolumes.64heavypollutersinindustrialmanufacturing.AanadditionalriskcloudingthefurtherUS$10bintaxcreditsisavailablefortheDespiteitbeingearlydaysfortheAct,investorsoutlook.Conditions,then,areripeforturbochargingdevelopmentofEVmanufacturingandrenewablearealreadycomingforwardtotakeadvantageofrenewableenergydemandandacceleratingtheenergytechnologies,whileUS$30bingrantsandtheincentivesitoffers.InthefirsteightmonthsGregoryDacotransitiontonetzero—butwillmarketinterventionsloansisbeingallocatedtohelputilitiestransitionsinceitspassageinmid-August2022,morethanEY-ParthenonChiefEconomist,Strategyunderpinorunderminesuchambition?tocleanenergy.Additionally,theGreenhouseGasUS$150bofcapitalinvestmentintoutility-scaleUSandTransactions,Ernst&YoungLLPReductionFundisbeingestablished,withUS$27bcleanenergywasannounced,surpassingthetotalInflationReductionActchangesworthoffundingtosupportcleanenergyprojects.investmentestimatedforallcleanenergyprojectsthegamecommissionedinthemarketover2017–21.72Abroadrangeofassets—includingwind,solar,Overthesameperiod,46newutility-scalecleanPerhapsthemostsignificantpolicywhenitcomestoenergystorage,carboncaptureutilizationandenergymanufacturingfacilitieswereannounced,renewablesexpansionistheUSInflationReductionstorage(CCSandCCUS),theproductionofcleanwiththeseestimatedtocreatemorethan18,000Act,whichwassignedintolawbyPresidentBidenhydrogen,renewablenaturalgas,nuclearanddomesticjobs.Ofthese46projects,26aresolaron16August2022.TheWhiteHousedescribedEVs—issettobenefitfromtheAct.Notably,manufacturingfacilities.Afurther10projectstheActas“themostsignificantactionCongressthelegislationstandstomaketheUStheworldareutility-scalebatterystoragemanufacturinghastakenoncleanenergyandclimatechangeinleaderinCCSandCCUS,whileUS-producedgreenfacilitiesorexpansions,and10arewindpowerthenation’shistory”65—andwhileitsfullimpactwillhydrogencouldbecomethecheapestintheworld68manufacturingfacilities.undertheupdatedtaxcreditregime.ItwillalsobeRenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6114AnalysisSignificantly,theActisexpectedtoresultinnewSimilarconcernshaveemergedelsewhereintheaccountsforaround50%ofenergyinvestment.Forewordinvestmentopportunitiesthroughouttheenergyworld,andgovernmentsareexaminingtheimpactWiththehighcostofcapitalandrisingborrowingRECAI61andmanufacturingsupplychain,notjustinandformulatingtheirresponsesatthepolicylevel.coststhreateningtoundercuttheeconomicNormalizedindexspecificrenewablesprojectsandtechnologies,asattractivenessofcapital-intensivecleanenergyPPAindexitseekstopromotedomesticmanufacturingoftheIn2022,theUSaccountedfor13%ofglobaltechnologies,increasedcompetitionfromleadingKeydevelopmentscomponentsrequiredforcleanenergyproduction.renewablescapacity,excludinghydro,whereasrenewablesmarketscouldmakeitmorechallengingAnalysisChinaandtheEUheldsharesof38%and21%stillforemerginganddevelopingeconomiestoRegionalfocusTheActisexpectedtodrasticallyincreasetherespectively.75Asothereconomiespushtoexpandattractinvestmentfromtheprivatesector.Dataanddemandforcomponentsneededforcleanenergytheirownrenewablesindustries,theActlookssetmethodologytechnologies.ButsomeoftheincentiveshingeontomorethandoubleinstalledcapacityintheUS.Ofsignificance,ContactsacertainamountofrawmaterialsbeingsourcedinThetotalUSrenewableenergycapacity,excludingtheUSInflationReductiontheUS,thefinalproductbeingconstructedinthepumpedhydrofacilities,is385GW.TheAmericanActisexpectedtoresultinUS,ormeetingapprenticeshipandprevailingwageCleanPowerAssociationestimatesthatinvestmentsnewinvestmentopportunitiesstandards.drivenbytheActcoulddeliveranadditionalthroughouttheenergyand525GWto550GWofcleanpowerfortheUSbymanufacturingsupplychain,Toaccommodatetheincreasedparticipation2030,generatingUS$550toUS$600bofcapitalnotjustinspecificrenewablesbyinvestors—andtodevelopthesupplychainsinvestment.76projectsandtechnologies,neededfornewertechnologies,newtechnology-specificeconomiesandincreaseddomesticenergyWhilerenewablesinvestmentcontinuestoincreaseasitseekstopromoteproduction—newcommercialstructuresandjointworldwide,itstillfallsshortofwhatisneeded.Thedomesticmanufacturingoftheventuresarebeingcreated.AlthoughanambitiousInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)componentsrequiredforcleanundertaking,theAct’sinclusionofadditionalhasestimatedthatUS$35tofinvestmentisneededmonetizationoptions,andthecredits,incentivesby2030tokeepglobaltemperaturerisestowithinenergyproduction.andgrantsavailable,isdrivingUSdevelopment.1.5ºCofpre-industriallevels.77TheUS,ChinaandWhatislefttobeseen,however,iswhattheAct’stheEUaccountedfortwo-thirdsofallrenewableimpactwillbeoninternationalmarkets.capacityadditionsin2022,78andtheAct’spassageintolawintensifiesthecompetitionforcapital,asImplicationsforglobalmarketswellashighlightingtheneedtoincentivizegreenenergytoattractcapitalindevelopingmarkets.TheActhasimplicationsonagloballevel,asitislikelytoresultinatleastsomedistortionofAsidefromIndiaandChina,cleanenergyspendingglobalmarkets.TheconcernamongEuropeaninemerginganddevelopingmarketsremainspoliticiansandpolicymakers,forexample,isthatstuckat2015levels.Thesemarketsaccountforitwillincentivizedevelopersandmanufacturerstoone-fifthofallglobalenergyinvestment,and,locateinvestmentsintheUSandawayfromEurope.withinmanyoftheseeconomies,publicfundingUS$35tworldwideinvestmentIRENAsaysisneededby2030tokeepglobaltemperatureriseswithin1.5°Cofpre-industriallevelsRenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6115AnalysisIndeed,thereisalreadysignificantinterestamongTheEUisunderpressurefromtheprivatesectorandzeroindustry.”93TheproposalsincludedtherelaxationForewordinvestorsbasedelsewhereinthedeploymentofMemberStatestodoevenmore.Indeed,companies,ofstaterulestodrivefunding,theNet-ZeroIndustryRECAI61futurecapitalexpendituresintheUS,asillustratedincludingsteelmakerArcelorMittal,arecallingontheEUAct,theenhancementofskills,andopentradeaimedNormalizedindexbythepresenceofforeigncompaniesamongthosetosimplifyitsapprovalsprocessforgreeninvestmentsatensuringresilientsupplychains.Then,inMarchPPAindexannouncingnewUScleanenergyinvestmentsinandprovidemoreincentivestokeeptheregion2023,theEuropeanCommissionapprovedasignificantKeydevelopmentsthefirsteightmonthsfollowingthepassageofthecompetitivewiththeUS.89Giventhechallengesinvolvedrelaxationofstateaidrules94undertheTemporaryAnalysisAct.TheseincludeItaly’sEnel,whichisinvestingininachievingconsensusacrossthebloc,however—andCrisisandTransitionFramework,amidconcernthatRegionalfocusafacilityforthemanufacturingofsolarpanelsandtheamountoftimethiscantake—individualmarketscompanieswouldfavorinvestmentintheUSbecauseofDataandcells.79Meanwhile,Germany’sRWEhasannouncedandarealsohavingtopursuetheirowninitiativestobolstertheAct.TheEuropeanCommissionamendedtheEU’smethodologycompletedtheacquisitionofConEdisonCleanEnergytheirattractivenesstorenewablesinvestors.stateaidrulestosimplifytheapprovalofsubsidiesinsixContactsBusinesses,whichitsaidmakesitthenumberfourkeyareas—batteries,solarpanels,windturbines,heatrenewableenergycompanyintheUS.80AndEENorth“Myviewisthat,today,thereactionstotheUSpumps,electrolyzersandcarboncapturetechnologyAmerica,asubsidiaryofDenmark’sEuropeanEnergy,InflationReductionActaremorecountry-led,rather—aswellasfortheproductionofthecomponentsandunveiledplanstodevelop10GWofrenewableenergythanEuropeanCommission-led,”saidBrunoBousquié,rawmaterialsneededtomanufacturethem.95ThemoveintheUSby2026.81Others,includingautomakersStrategyandTransactionsLeaderFrance,Ernst&YoungisaimedatgivingEUMemberStatesmoreflexibilityVolkswagen,82BMW83andtheMercedes-BenzGroup,84Advisory.HecitesGermanyasoneoftheEuropeantoinjectpublicmoneyintocleanenergyand,thereby,batteryproducerNorthvolt85andindustrialgasplayereconomiesleadingtheway.TheGermanFederalprovideadditionalincentivestoprivatesectorplayers.Linde,86haveindicatedinrecentmonthsthattheyareMinistryforEconomicAffairsandClimateActionhasfocusingmoreontheirNorthAmericanbusinesses.prioritizedinvestmentandinnovationsupportmeasuresHowever,therehavealsobeenwarningsthattheEUtostrengthenitsrenewableenergyandpowergridshouldnotrushtoreplicatetheAct,asthiscouldserveTheEU’sresponse—bothtodateandplanned—isproductioncapacity.Thisincludesenablingaccesstotodistortthemarketfurtherstillandunderminetheimportant,asrecentmarketinterventionscanmakefinance,offeringhedginginstrumentsandpromotingbloc’sexistingmechanismsforincentivizingthebuild-Europelessattractiveforinvestors.Analysisbytheinnovations.90outofrenewables.TherehasbeendebateamongEUEuropeanParliamentestimatesthatrevenuefromtheMemberStatesonhowtorespondtotheActinsuchatemporarywindfalltaxonenergycompanies’profits,Globally,GermanyandFrancearethirdandfourthmannerthatitdoesnotnegativelyaffectlocalmarkets,appliedin2022bysettingacaponmarketrevenuesrespectivelyintermsofannualinvestmentintothesuggestingthatamorecarefullythought-outapproachforrenewablegenerators,sofaramountsto€30.9benergytransition.91InFebruary2023,Franceadoptedisneeded.Forexample,whileFrance,Germany,Italy(US$34.1b)fromonshorewind,€16.7b(US$18.4b)anewrenewableenergybillaimedathelpingitachieveandSpainhavebeenamongthoseadvocatingformorefrombiomassand€7.9b(US$8.7b)fromoffshoreatenfoldexpansioninsolarenergyoutputtoexceedflexibleandquickerprocedurestograntstateaid,wind.87AstheblocunwindsdecadesofRussiangas100GWby2050andtorollout50newoffshoreNordiccountries,theNetherlandsandseveralCentraldependencybyexpandingrenewables,hydrogenandwindfarmstoreachacapacityof40GW.92andEasternEUMemberStatesarewarythatrelaxingbiomethane,88itsmarketdesignproposalsmustensurestateaidruleswouldonlybenefitafewEUMemberthattheabilitytocontinuetoattractinvestmentisn’tNonetheless,theEUcontinuestopursuebloc-wideStateswithdeeperpocketswhiledamagingcompetitionundermined.initiatives.InFebruary2023,theEuropeanCommissionwithinthe27-nationbloc.96proposeditsGreenDealIndustrialPlan,withtheaimof“enhancingthecompetitivenessofEurope’snet-“Myviewisthat,today,thereactionstotheUSInflationReductionActaremorecountry-led,ratherthanEuropeanCommission-led.BrunoBousquiéStrategyandTransactionsLeaderFrance,Ernst&YoungAdvisoryRenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6116AnalysisOutsidetheEU,asitpursuesitsownenergyAtthesametime,ChinaisfocusedonaggressivelyInAustralia,federalandstategovernmentsindustry.Othermajoreconomies,facedwithForewordtransition,theUKisalsolookingathowtoremainexpandingitsrenewablesindustryasitseekstorecognizethattheActislikelytohaveanimpactincreasedcompetitionfromtheUS,willseektoRECAI61competitivewiththeUSinthewakeoftheAct.reboundfromalmostthreeyearsofpandemic-ontheirinvestmentlandscape,thoughtheextentdoubledownontheirownrenewablesinvestmentsNormalizedindexInMarch2023,forexample,theUKunveiledarelatedlockdownsandtheimpacttheyhavehadonofthisremainsuncertain.Indeed,companiesandtakestepstoenhancetheircompetitiveness.PPAindexpackageofmeasuresaimedatspurringinvestmenttheeconomy.ChinesegrowthisforecastbytheIMFthatwereconsideringAustraliaforinvestmentsIncreasedcompetitioncanhelpspeedupKeydevelopmentsinCCUS,offshorewind,greenhydrogen,andothertoreboundto5.2%thisyear,98andthiscomesasingreenhydrogenarerethinkingtheirplansintechnologicaladvancesandbringdowncosts,Analysiscleanenergyindustriesandinitiatives.97themarketstepsupitspursuitofenergytransitionlightoftheAct’sabilitytobringdownthecostsofwhichshouldbenefittheenergytransitionacrossRegionalfocusBeyondEurope,majorplayers,includingIndiaandtargets.BeijingisaimingforcarbonneutralityproductionintheUS.Incomparison,Australia’stheboardandhelpspurtheinvestmentrequiredtoDataandChina,arepursuingtheaggressivegrowthoftheirby2060,andthistargetwillhelpdrivedomesticcompetitivenessinthenascentgreenhydrogendecarbonizeandkeepglobaltemperaturerisesinmethodologyownrenewablesindustries.Forexample,Indiademandforrenewablesandcleanenergy.Further,spacenowlooksreduced.check.TheconsiderableaccelerationofthelearningContactsisexpandingviaacombinationofgovernmentChinaappearssettocontinuedominatingthesolarcurvefornascentgreentechnologies,thankstothetargetsandprivatesectoractions,althoughIndiancomponentsindustryforsometime.ChineseplayersNonetheless,federalandstategovernmentsAct,standstobetoeveryone’sbenefitglobally.firmswillalsobeopentothenewUSinvestmentarealsotargetingexportmarketsglobally,andtheirinAustraliaarekeentodemonstratethattheiropportunitiesprovidedbytheAct.(Seepage18,effortstobecompetitivecoulddrivecostslower.marketsremainopenforbusiness,andthatfurtherOntheotherhand,marketleaderswillhavetoregionalfocusarticle.)supportforrenewablesislikelytomaterializeinthenavigatecarefullyiftheyaretoavoidsignificantChina’sresponsewillbesignificant,givenitscurrent“Chinaistakingmeasurestoretainitscompetitivefuture.ThisisespeciallythecaseasAustraliahassetbacks.TheActhasbeenthesubjectofdominanceacrossawiderangeofcleanenergyadvantage—forexample,intechnologieswhereitisanaggressivetargetfor82%ofitspowergenerationinternationalcriticismforitsprotectionistmeasures,supplychains,includingwindandsolarcomponents,reallyleadingthemarket,”saidAlexLu,Associatecomingfromrenewablesby2030.99anditcouldrunintofurtherpushbackifitdoesnotbatteriesandcriticalminerals.AmajorgoalofthePartner,Ernst&YoungHuaMingLLP.HeaddedthatevolvetobecomelessdisadvantageoustoforeignActistoimproveUScompetitivenesswithChinaChina’scompetitiveadvantagehaspreviouslybeenIndeed,theAustraliangovernmentrecentlycompaniesandcomponents.Similarly,renewablesacrossthosesupplychains.cost-ledratherthantechnology-led.introducedtheCapacityInvestmentScheme,whichsupplychainsspanmarketsandcontinents,soanyisinitiallyfocusedonprovidingcapacityincentivesattempttoshiftthemsignificantlywillbecostly“ChinaistakingmeasurestoretainElsewhereinAsia,marketssuchasMalaysia,whichtoenergystorageprojects.“Thereisstill,Ithink,aandtime-consuming.Andmarketsthatcurrentlyhasasolarmanufacturingindustryandexportstopotentialrevenuegapforstorageprojects,becausedominatesupplychains,suchasChina,willbeitscompetitiveadvantage—fortheUS,standtobeaffectedbytheintroductionofoftherangeofrevenuestreams.Sothatisthefocusedonremainingcompetitiveandretainingexample,intechnologieswhereittheAct.Othersintheregion,includingIndonesia,firstlever,andthereisalsoaquestionmarkovertheirdominance.isreallyleadingthemarket.wanttoestablishanewsolarmanufacturingwhetherabroadercapacityinvestmentsschemeindustryandwillneedtoconsiderhowtodosoincouldbebroughtintohelprenewableenergyfromUnlesspotentialissueswithlocalizedsupplychainsthefaceofcompetitionfromsignificantlylargeraglobalattractivenessperspective,”saidMichaelareaddressedcorrectly,net-zerotargetscouldbeeconomies,includingtheUSandChina—theNewman,EYOceaniaRenewablesLeader.missed,andtheglobalenergytransitiondelayed.latterofwhichsuppliessolarpanelstomuchofSoutheastAsia.AwinfortheenergytransitionThepathforwardwillnotbewithoutrisksandpressures,andpoliciesandincentiveswillneedIncreasedcompetitionrepresentsawinforthetoevolvefurtherstilltoadapttonewmarketenergytransition,whilealsobenefitingthosedistortions.Overtime,someoftheAct’scurrentmarketsthatturntorenewablestodrivetheirprovisionsstandtobephasedout,andunlesseconomiesoutoftherecessionaryenvironmentwiththeseareextended,ornewonesbroughtin,thiswhichtheyarecurrentlydealing.couldhelpleveltheplayingfieldinthelongerterm,improvingthecomparativeattractivenessofotherTheUSwantstoaccelerategrowthandhassetmarketsagain.Governmentscanhelpsetthestagethestageforamajorexpansionofitsrenewablesforthisbytakingcarefullyconsideredstepsnow.AlexLuAssociatePartner,Ernst&YoungHuaMingLLPRenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6117RegionalfocusIndia:workingroundtheclocktocementForewordinvestiblepositioninrenewableenergyRECAI61NormalizedindexIndia’srenewablesindustryisgrowingrapidly.AccordingtotheInternationalEnergyAgencyPPAindex(IEA),Indiahasthefastestrateofrenewableelectricitygrowthofanymajoreconomy,withKeydevelopmentsnewcapacityadditionsontracktodoublebetweenthestartof2022and2026.100ItalsoAnalysisdoubledbetween2015and2022,toreach163GW.101AsofFebruary2023,renewablesRegionalfocusaccountedforaround42.5%ofIndia’sinstalledpowergenerationcapacity.102DataandmethodologyInbriefIndia’srenewableenergyindustryisexpandingstoragecapacityof4.8GWhasremainedunchangedSomeshKumarContactsviaacombinationofgovernmenttargetsandsince2013.104Thisislikelytoincreaseinthe•I●ndiahasthefastestrateofprivatesectoractions.Solar,inparticular,hascomingyears,however,withmajornewprojectsEYIndiaPower&UtilitiesLeaderrenewableelectricitygrowthofcontinuedtotakesignificantstridesforward.Inunderdevelopment.anymajoreconomy,withsolar2022,itaccountedfor63GWofthemarket’sContributorsleadingthetransition.totalrenewablescapacity,followedbyrenewable“Withincreasingadoptionofrenewableelectricityhydropower,at47GW,andwindpower,at42GW.103acrossprivatesectorandcommercialandindustrialKapilBansal•C●ommercialandindustrialconsumers,intermittencyandnonavailabilityofRTCPartner,Ernst&YoungLLPcompaniesareturningtoTheprivatesector—andC&Icompaniesinparticularpowerisagrowingconcern,”saysSomeshKumar,renewablepowerpurchase—isincreasinglyturningtorenewablePPAsasitEYIndiaPower&UtilitiesLeader.“PumpedhydroKiranK.Mallaagreementstolowertheirseekslower-costelectricitywhilesimultaneouslystoragecanplayasignificantroleinensuringRTCPartner,Ernst&YoungLLPelectricitycostsandemissions.pursuingloweremissions.However,thegrowingpowertoconsumers.”shareofrenewablepowergenerationmeansthatPankhuriNeb•E●nsuringround-the-clocksupplysupplyintermittencyisalsobecomingabiggerInaddition,newandupcomingtechnologies,suchSenior,Ernst&YoungLLPisapriorityasIndiaseekstoconcern.Solar—whichisexpectedtocontinuetoasgreenhydrogen,aremakingtheirwayintothebecomeamajorproducerandplayadominantroleinIndia’senergymix—anddomesticrenewableenergymix,totheextentexporterofgreenhydrogen.windarecloselyassociatedwithintermittencythattheycanboostIndia’sexportadvantage.Thisissues,which,unlessproperlymanaged,canstrainreinforcestheimportanceofRTCsupplyofusablepowergrids.Asaresult,ensuringround-the-cleanenergyforpotentialofftakers.Policiestoclock(RTC)supplyisbecomingmoreofapriority.boostmarketparticipationaregraduallytakingPumpedhydroisexpectedtoplayasignificantrolecenterstage,andtherenewablesmarkethasinthis.AccordingtoIRENA,India’spurepumpedattractedlargepensionfundslately.108GWIndia’stotalamountofpumpedstoragepotential,accordingtothegovernmentRenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6118RegionalfocusTheseprioritiesareleadingtoclearpolicyactionsGreenHydrogenMission—whichhasaninitialonimportedsolarmodulesandcellsin2022.111capitalstandpoint,andtheemergenceofC&IPPAsForeworddesignedtobooststorageandhydrogenandunlockoutlayofINR197b(US$2.4b)—IndiaistargetingAsofearly2023,cellandmodulemanufacturing—especiallyinvolvingsolarpower—hashelpedbringRECAI61barriersforcorporateplayers.InterestininvestingproductionoffivemillionmetrictonnesofgreencapacityinIndiawasaround44GWperyear,112whiledownthecostsforpowerinsomecases,comparedNormalizedindexinIndia’senergymarket—anditsrenewableshydrogenby2030.107themarketistargeting280GWofinstalledsolarwithwhatcustomerswouldbeabletobuyfromPPAindexindustryinparticular—isalreadyrisingandpowercapacityby2030.113Inaddition,emphasisonthegrid.Thishasnotbeenthecaseeverywhere,Keydevelopmentsexpectedtogrowfurtherstill.InadditiontolargeThegovernmenthasallocatedINR350b(US$4.3b)researchanddevelopmentthroughtheAdvancedhowever,withonlysomestatesviableforopenAnalysispensionfunds,investmentshaveflowedinviaamixto“prioritycapitalinvestmentstowardenergyChemistryCellschemehasbeenpivotalinexploringaccess.Inmost,open-accesspowerremainsmoreRegionalfocusofdeals,includingacquisitions,bonds,debts,equitytransitionandnet-zeroobjectives,andenergyindigenized,higher-efficiencysolarcells.expensivethanpowersuppliedbystatedistributionDataandinvestmentandmezzaninefunding.105security”inits2023–24budget.108companies.methodology“IndiaismakingsignificanteffortstoestablishitselfContactsGovernmentincentivesandtargetsTodate,IndiahashadconsiderablesuccessinasanattractiveandinvestiblemarketforrenewableTheopen-accessmarketforrenewableenergydrivinggrowthincertainareas.Itisamajorhubenergy,”saysKumar.“TheIndiangovernmenthasgrewtoaround10GWbythe2022fiscalyear,Inthefourthquarterof2022,Indiareleaseditsforthemanufacturingofcomponentsrequiredforbeenimplementingvariouspoliciesandinitiativestofrom300MWin2009.115Itcurrentlyaccountsforlong-termlow-carbondevelopmentstrategieswindpowergeneration—indeed,itisoneofonlypromoterenewableenergydevelopmentandattractaminorityofconsumers,butIndiaisoneofthethroughitslatestdraftNationalElectricityPlanfivemarketsthatcancurrentlyproduceallsixmajorbothdomesticandforeigninvestments.”fastest-growingPPAmarketsintheworld,andit(NEP).TheNEPsetsoutdecarbonizationtargetswindturbinecomponents.109Itisalsopromotingthecouldincreasefasterstillifpoliciesacrossdifferentforthepowersectorupto2031–32.ItalsosetsdomesticmanufacturingofcomponentsrequiredC&IsegmentpursuesPPAsstatesbecamemorestandardized.outplanstoexpandthetransmissioninfrastructureforsolargeneration.UndertheProductionLinkednetworkby300GWby2030,toallowforeffectiveIncentiveSchemeforHighEfficiencySolarPVTheemergenceofC&IPPAsmeanstheindustrywill,TheonlythingthatcanslowthemomentumisthepowertransmissionfromareasofhighrenewableModules,forexample,thegovernmenthadallocatedtosomeextent,relyonthegovernmenttoallowitgovernment’sreluctancetoprovideapprovalsforenergygeneration.Themarketisaimingtohave48.3GWofdomesticsolarPVmodulemanufacturingtoadvancewithitsplans,becausethesecustomersC&IPPAstoproceed.Overall,momentumremains500GWofrenewablescapacityby2030106andcapacitybytheendofMarch2023,withcumulativewouldotherwisebesuppliedbystate-ownedstrong,but,insomestates,approvalshavebeennet-zerogreenhousegasemissionsby2070.supportofINR185b(US$2.3b).110Thiscapacityutilitiesandrequireapprovalstoobtainpowerfromslow.Nonetheless,governmentenablement,thepullMeanwhile,underitsrecentlylaunchedNationalisduetocomeonlinebyApril2026.However,alternativesources.fromcustomerstoshifttorenewablesandthefactincreasesindomesticmanufacturingcapacityneedthatcapitalisincreasinglychasingC&Iplatformstobeacceleratedtomeetthemarket’srenewableThePPAsinquestionaretypicallyforRTCsupply,meanrenewablecapacitycontinuestoexpand.energygoals,especiallyinlightofthetaxesimposedsoitisuptothesuppliersofthepowersoldunderthesedealstocomplementrenewablesourcesofGrowingstorageneedsTodate,Indiahashadconsiderablesuccessinenergywithstoragecapacity.drivinggrowthincertainareas.ItisamajorhubTokeeppacewiththegrowthinrenewableforthemanufacturingofcomponentsrequiredTheseC&Icustomershavetheirownnet-zerogenerationandtransmissioncapacity,andhelpforwindpowergeneration—indeed,itisoneofemissionstargetsand,inpursuitofthese,areensureRTCsupply,energystoragesystemsneedonlyfivemarketsthatcancurrentlyproduceallsixseekingtosignPPAsunderIndia’sopen-accesstobeputinplace.Recently,Indiaappearstohavemajorwindturbinecomponents.mechanism.Anotherkeyreasonforthegrowthofbeenmovingawayfrombattery-basedstorageandPPAsisthehighgridtariffsassociatedwithcoal-towardpumpedstorage,giventhepotentialscalederivedenergyandthefactthatrenewableenergyofprojects,theirenvironmentalcredentialsandisnowwidelyavailableinIndia.114theavailabilityofthenecessarytechnology.TheMinistryofPowerpublisheddraftguidelinesonFromtheotherside,capitalisalsochasingthesepromotingpumpedstorageinFebruary2023116—agreements,withcompetitioninutility-scalebutthispreferencecouldchangeiftheeconomicstendersandincreasedinterestbyprivateequityshift,asbatterystoragecostsareexpectedtofallplayersbecauseofbetterreturnsandsovereignovertime.guarantees.Indeed,themarkethasevolvedfromaRenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6119RegionalfocusSeverallarge-scalepumpedhydroprojectshavethemarketunderpressuretodisplacemoreofitsEVs,atINR138.87b(US$1.9b).126SuchcontinuedMeanwhile,furtherstandardizationofprocessesForewordbeenannouncedbyprivatesectordevelopers,demandforfossilfuelswithrenewables.ItisalsosupportforfossilfuelsisoutofstepwithIndia’sforopenaccessacrossIndia’sstateswouldbeRECAI61thoughthesehavelongleadtimesandthepotentialtheworld’sfourth-largestbuyerofliquefiednaturalenergyaccess,energysecurityandclimatechangerequiredtohelptheC&IsectorspecificallytogrowNormalizedindextorunintodelaysbecauseoftheirscaleandgas(LNG),122importinganestimated212.4millionobjectives.Ifthegovernmentistoachieveitsmorequickly.PPAindexcomplexity.metrictonnesofcrudeand30.8bcubicmetersofcommitmentof500GWofrenewablecapacitybyKeydevelopmentsLNGoverthe2021–22fiscalyear.1232030,itisestimatedthatadoublingofinvestmentThegreenhydrogenindustryisstillnascent,AnalysisThegovernmentwillbekeenforthesetomove—toINR2.44t(US$28b)peryear—willberequiredwithconsiderableuncertaintyahead.However,Regionalfocusforward,however,giventhatitrecentlyestimatedTheGreenHydrogenMissionproposestoexpandbetween2022and2029.127substantialopportunitiesarepresentingthemselvesDataandthemarketwillrequire18.8GWofpumpedhydroIndia’snascentgreenhydrogenindustryinaphasedasagrowingnumberofmarketslookaheadtomethodologystorageand51.5GWoffive-hourbatterystoragemanner,firstfocusingondeployingitacrossMaintainingthegrowthmomentumofrenewablesimportinggreenhydrogenoverthelongerterm.Contactstointegratethe500GWofrenewablecapacitysectorsthatuselesscleanformsofhydrogenwillalsocomedowntoprivatesectorinterest,itistargetingtobringonlineby2032.117Indiaanddevelopinganecosystemforresearchandandfinancialincentivescouldhelpboostthis.Withenergydemandgrowing,thepressurewillhas108GWofpumpedstoragepotentialintotal,development,regulationsandpilotprojects.IRENAAdditionally,abalancewillneedtobestruckbeontokeepfossilfuelconsumptionincheck.accordingtothegovernment.AsofFebruaryestimatesthatIndiacurrentlyconsumessixmillionbetweenbroadereffortstokeeptherenewablesRenewables,storageandaneventualrolein2023,onlyeightprojectswereinoperation,withametrictonnesperyearofhydrogen,mostofitgreybuild-outgoingandthepushtoexpanddomesticthegreenhydrogensupplychainareintegralcombinedcapacityof4.7GW.Afurther24projects,hydrogen,whichisproducedusingfossilfuels.124manufacturingcapacity,shoulditnotkeeppacewithandcomplementarycomponentsinachievingwithacombinedcapacityof26.6GW,areunderRampingupdomesticelectrolyzermanufacturingoverallrenewablesgrowth.this,andtheIndiangovernmentissteppingupdevelopment.118capacitywillalsobeanearlypriority.supportforallthree.HydrogenexportpotentialProgressisalsobeingmadeonplansforgreen“Withincreasingadoptionofrenewableammoniaexports.InFebruary2023,GreenkoelectricityacrossprivatesectorandIndiaisaimingtobecomealow-costrenewablessignedanMoU,pavingthewayfornegotiatingacommercialandindustrialconsumers,productioncenter,withaviewtotargetingexportfirst-of-its-kinddealtosupplygreenammoniatomarketsaswellasdomesticconsumption.WithGermany’sUniper.Theintegrationofapumpedintermittencyandnonavailabilitycheaprenewablepowergeneration,itwillalsoaimstorageplanttohelpensurereliableandcompetitiveofRTCpowerisagrowingconcern.toprovideRTCrenewablepowersupplytofacilitatesupplywashighlightedatthetimeasakeyPumpedhydrostoragecanplayagreenhydrogenandammoniaexports.Currently,differentiatorforthatproject.significantroleinensuringRTCpowerhydrogenincentivesinIndiaarenotsizable,especiallycomparedwiththeUSanditsAct,butNextstepstoboostrenewablestoconsumers.IndiaisbankingontheUSprioritizingdomesticgrowthhydrogenconsumption,whileitcantargetexportSomeshKumarmarketssuchasEurope.TheIndiangovernment’spolicypushonrenewablesEYIndiaPower&UtilitiesLeaderisinlinewiththeglobaltrendofcustomersIndeed,Indiaisaimingtobecomeaglobalhubindemandingprocurementfromrenewablethisspace,119citinginitsNationalGreenHydrogendevelopers.Therearepushandpullfactorsinvolved,Mission120bothaneedtoachieveself-relianceforandnewinvestorsareemergingtotakeadvantageenergyanditsdesiretocontributetotheenergyoftheopportunitiesavailable.transitionglobally.IfIndiaachievesitsgoals,itwillreduceitsdependenceonfossilfuelimports,andThemarketwillhavetoconsiderwhenitshouldhelpitbecomeatechnologyandmarketleaderinprovidemoresubsidiestorenewablesasindustrygreenhydrogen.However,Indiaiscurrentlytheplayersincreasetheiroperations.Between2014third-largestconsumerandnetimporterofcrudeand2022,subsidiesforcoal,fossilgasandoiloilandpetroleumproductsintheworld,121anditsfellby76%inrealterms,buttheyremainmoreenergydemandisexpectedtokeepgrowing,puttingthanfourtimesthesubsidiesforrenewablesandRenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6120DataandmethodologyRECAI61scoresTechnology-specificscoresRankingMarketPreviousMovementvs.ScoreOnshoreOfffshoreSolarPVSolarCSPBiomassGeothermalHydroMarineForewordrankingpreviouswindwindRECAI6172.939.520.6Normalizedindex1UnitedStates172.358.350.758.546.540.446.841.621.1PPAindex370.756.443.257.232.350.437.150.917.9Keydevelopments2Germany269.853.345.261.655.249.624.339.935.4Analysis469.658.352.549.815.754.936.342.138.6Regionalfocus3ChinaMainland569.155.444.154.924.046.439.048.120.1Dataand768.753.924.562.934.543.422.026.925.4methodology4UnitedKingdom666.053.533.456.946.741.115.523.423.3Contacts864.052.827.153.629.440.015.727.616.65France1063.953.638.846.915.851.124.738.023.3963.850.042.048.819.356.044.821.721.56India1163.853.542.046.316.844.315.847.426.41562.756.838.546.819.335.525.822.124.97Australia1362.450.135.946.219.936.218.145.228.11762.351.922.648.355.042.446.145.718.48Spain1262.247.234.050.831.141.832.341.615.11662.049.533.349.135.843.425.536.214.59Netherlands1860.748.941.649.213.745.719.947.618.41460.651.331.852.024.649.612.718.315.510Japan2159.540.115.855.336.929.215.336.227.42049.131.942.415.943.518.411Denmark12Canada13Ireland14Chile15Italy16Greece17Poland18Brazil19Israel20SwedenRenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6121DataandmethodologyRECAI61scoresTechnology-specificscoresRankingMarketPreviousMovementvs.ScoreOnshoreOfffshoreSolarPVSolarCSPBiomassGeothermalHydroMarineForewordrankingpreviouswindwindRECAI6159.023.015.7Normalizedindex21Finland2258.659.828.036.115.745.015.737.024.0PPAindex2558.643.619.647.725.440.423.333.913.8Keydevelopments22Portugal1958.546.217.250.650.225.013.825.618.0Analysis2458.051.129.141.918.441.122.729.832.9Regionalfocus23Morocco2357.839.332.749.018.748.617.133.427.7Dataand2857.342.638.745.718.729.623.945.619.8methodology24Belgium3056.749.321.348.823.941.341.923.411.9Contacts2956.645.715.354.235.224.911.939.821.225SouthKorea3256.546.021.043.414.141.917.534.417.62656.550.822.148.531.536.018.046.032.826Taiwan3456.248.933.539.014.932.817.441.513.83556.148.516.445.618.134.816.341.820.227Turkey2755.741.920.847.420.040.043.138.815.33155.341.317.944.318.435.922.835.119.128Egypt3354.442.221.447.624.534.539.746.518.63654.444.634.143.417.538.813.019.820.729Austria3752.947.218.344.947.131.412.631.718.64052.938.915.444.321.641.316.612.111.830Argentina4152.945.316.144.828.125.915.815.413.23843.616.344.230.323.213.231Norway32Kazakhstan33Philippines34Switzerland35Mexico36Vietnam37SouthAfrica38Thailand39SaudiArabia40JordanRenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6122DataandmethodologyRECAI61methodologyForewordRECAI61TheindexrankingsreflectourassessmentofthefactorsdrivingNormalizedindexmarketattractivenessinaworldwhererenewableenergyhasgonePPAindexbeyonddecarbonizationandrelianceonsubsidies.KeydevelopmentsAnalysisWehavedefinedthequestionsbeingasked,basedonwhatDeterminingtherankingsRegionalfocusweseeasglobalmarkettrendsaffectinginvestmentandDataanddeploymentpriorities,andthechallengesandsuccessfactorsEachparameterwithinthefivepillarscomprisesaseriesmethodologyimpactingEYclients:ofdatasetsthatareconvertedintoascore,fromonetoContactsfive,andweightedtogenerateparameterscores.These•I●stherealong-termneedforadditionalorreplacementareweightedagaintoproducepillarscores,thenanoverallenergysupply?Ifso,isthereastrongcaseforenergyfromRECAIscoreandranking.WeightingsarebasedontheEYrenewableresourcesinparticular?assessmentoftherelativeimportanceofeachdataset,parameterandpillarindrivinginvestmentanddeployment•I●spolicyhinderingorhelpingtheabilitytoexploitdecisions.Eachtechnologyisalsoallocatedaweightingbasedrenewablesopportunities?onitsshareofhistoricalandprojectedinvestmentlevels.•A●reessentialcomponentsinplacetoensureprojectSeparatefromthemainindex,EYtechnology-specificdelivery,suchaslong-termcontracts,gridinfrastructureindicesrankingsreflectaweightedaveragescoreacross(includingstorage)andavailabilityoffinance?thetechnology-specificparameters,andacombinedscorecoveringourothermacroandenergymarketparameters.•W●hatdoesthestrengthofnaturalresource,trackrecordThisisbecausesomemarketsmaybehighlyattractiveforandprojectpipelinerevealabouttheoutlookforparticularspecifictechnologiesbutfaceothermajorbarrierstoentry.renewabletechnologies?Datasetsarebasedonpubliclyavailableorpurchaseddata,•E●venifallotherelementsareinplace,doesthemacroEYanalysisoradjustmentstothird-partydata.Weareunablestabilityandinvestmentclimateenableorimpedetheeasetopubliclydisclosetheunderlyingdatasetsorweightingsofdoingbusiness?usedtoproducetheindices.TheseindexpillarsthereforeputemphasisonfundamentalsIfyouwouldliketodiscusshowEYRECAIanalysiscouldhelpsuchasenergyimperative,policystability,projectdeliveryyourbusinessdecisionsortransactions,pleasecontactthe(includingcapitalavailability)anddiversityofnaturalRECAIadvisorLavaanyaRekhi.resource—factorsthatwillincreasinglybecomekeymarketdifferentiatorsasmarketsmovetowardgridparity,and“artificial”motivations,suchasgovernmenttargetsorthering-fencingoftechnologies,becomelesscritical.RenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6123DataandmethodologyForewordRECAI61NormalizedRECAImethodologyNormalizedindexPPAindexWiththelargestglobalmarketstendingtotopthecoreRECAI,therearemanysmallermarketswhereKeydevelopmentsrenewableenergyisgrowingrapidlyandbecominghighlyattractive.Bydividingamarket’sRECAIAnalysisscorebylogarithmofGDPtoproducea“normalizedscore,”theindexidentifiesthosesmallerrenewableRegionalfocusenergymarketsthatperformbestonthecoreRECAIpillarsofenergymix,governmentsupport,projectDataanddeliveryandnaturalresource.Removingamarket’seconomicsizeshowcasesthosethatareefficientmethodologyintermsoftheirsizeandthemostattractiveforinvestors.ThenormalizedindexalsohighlightslargerContactsmarketsthatscorewellinthecoreRECAIbutcouldbedoingmoretosupportthegreentransition.Seethenormalizedindexrankingonpage5.RenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6124DataandmethodologyPPAIndexscoresRankingMarketPreviousMovementvs.NormalizedPPAIndexPPAmarketPPAfuturePPApolicyRECAIForewordrankingpreviousscore(0–100)scorematuritymarketscorescorescoreRECAI61Normalizedindex1Germany2100.024,718,48371.388.354.372.3PPAindex198.924,435,81680.989.751.066.0Keydevelopments2Spain392.822,948,409100.055.556.772.9Analysis485.521,132,50268.982.153.469.8Regionalfocus3UnitedStates671.317,622,05262.081.050.469.6Dataand569.617,194,18279.354.258.268.7methodology4UnitedKingdom869.217,097,77772.151.067.469.1Contacts764.615,961,74459.882.051.063.85France959.314,650,80059.175.951.064.01557.414,195,09063.065.355.662.06Australia1056.613,994,28563.376.148.859.51156.113,867,50064.468.853.059.07India1253.413,198,55951.282.250.462.31344.210,929,44778.554.042.460.78Denmark1443.010,632,69960.063.449.556.52435.254.248.052.363.99Netherlands1731.38,691,93760.439.152.562.41627.57,727,26734.465.651.558.610Poland2326.46,801,79050.635.957.462.71926.26,529,29960.836.553.754.411Sweden2123.16,479,55959.440.049.249.01822.95,720,00646.938.854.756.712Finland2220.75,649,49154.931.849.958.52020.55,104,54739.337.458.858.613Italy2614.45,070,66547.023.361.552.92714.43,569,55232.635.149.962.214Brazil2512.73,554,51236.035.058.942.42810.33,151,25426.734.953.251.515Norway298.02,553,00632.233.750.536.17.81,982,61819.934.350.356.616Japan1,940,36617Chile18Portugal19Ireland20SouthAfrica21Colombia22Egypt23Belgium24Morocco25Thailand26Greece27Ethiopia28Romania29Lithuania30AustriaRenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6125DataandmethodologyPPAIndexmethodologyPPAmarketmaturityForewordRECAI61Byanalyzingthesame100marketsasinthefullRECAIdatabase,thegoalistocreatea(Sources:Pexapark,DLAPiperandEYanalysis)Normalizedindexnewrankingthatfocusesontheattractivenessofrenewablepowerprocurement—via1.NumberofPPAssignedinthepastfiveyearsPPAindexoffsitecorporatePPAs—ratherthantheattractivenessofrenewableprojectinvestment.2.TotalPPAvolumeinthepastfiveyearsKeydevelopments3.NumberofPPAssignedinthepastyearAnalysisThefinalscoreforthetop30marketsiscalculatedfromaThePPAIndexusesamultiplicativeformulatoprioritizewell-4.TotalPPAvolumeinthepastyearRegionalfocusweightedcombinationof12keyparameters,whichactasaroundedmarketswithstrengthsinallaspectsofcorporateDataandproxyforcorporatePPApotential.ThePPAIndexfocusesonPPAdevelopmentandintegration.Forexample,thiswillPPAfuturemarketmethodologyfourpillars(threePPA-specificpillarstogetherwithaRECAImeanthatmarketswithzeroPPAdealstodatewillscorezeroContactsscorepillar):overallandwillnotyetbeincluded.(Sources:WoodMackenzie,GlobalData,IRENA,IEA,PexaparkandEYanalysis)•PPAmarketmaturity—thisfocusesonactivitiescarriedHowever,withstrongweightingonforward-looking1.Pipelineofprojects:outwithineachmarketinthepastdecade.Itconcentratesparameters,evenmarketswithjustafewdealstodatecouldonmarketmaturity,lookingatpastPPAdealfrequencyandscorehighlyifsignificantgrowthisexpectedinthecorporatea.Forecastpowercapacityvolume,aswellasaquantitativeanalysisofmorerecentPPAmarketwithinthenextfiveyears—thehorizonofRECAI.b.ForecastinstallationgrowthPPAdealgrowth.c.ProjectpipelineTheRECAIPPAIndexscore(whichcanbeverylarge)has2.Wholesalepowerpricing:•PPAfuturemarket—thisforward-lookingscoreassessesbeennormalizedintoascorefrom0to100,tocreateamorea.WholesalepowerpricerelativetothehistoricLCOEtheforecastactivityofeachmarket.Forecastpowermanageablereferencevalue.Theleadingmarketwillscoreb.WholesalepowerpricerelativetothePPApricecapacityisakeydriverofthemagnitudeofamarket,so100—butthisdoesnotmeanthatthemarketisperfectforthishasasignificantweightingonthescoreaswellascorporatePPAs.Itmeansthat,relativelyspeaking,itisthePPApolicyscorethewholesalepowerpricerelativetothelevelizedcostmostattractivemarketforcorporatePPAsacrossthecomingofenergy(LCOE)orPPApriceineachmarket.Forecastfiveyears.(Sources:WorldBank,GlobalData,IEAandEYanalysis)capacityinstallationsandaweightedprojectpipelinescore1.Easeofdoingbusinessindex(WorldBank)fromRECAIareused.TheindexhasfocusedonwindandDatasetsarebasedonpubliclyavailableorpurchaseddata,2.Renewableenergyimperative:solarPPAs(togetherweightedat93%)astheserepresentEYanalysisoradjustmentstothird-partydata.WeareunablethevastmajorityofoffsitecorporatePPAs.topubliclydisclosetheexactdatasetsorweightingsusedto•Renewableenergypercentageoftotalgenerationproducetheindices.•Percentageofpopulationwithaccesstoelectricity•PPApolicyscore—thisfocusesontheeaseofoperationin•Forecastenergyconsumptiongrowthagivenmarket.IfamarketistohavepotentialforcorporateFormoreinformationontheservicesthatEYteamsprovide•CO2emissionsPPAgrowth,supportinggovernmentpolicymustbeinplacetocorporatesaroundrenewableenergystrategiesandPPAs,forefficientandlarge-scaleexpansion.Thisisconsideredpleaserefertoourwebsite:www.ey.com/uk/ppa.RECAIscoreinthecoreRECAI,butisalsoexaminedhere,withamorenuancedfocusonPPAsupportivepolicy.(Source:EYanalysis)1.Macrofundamentals•RECAIscore—theoverallscoreyieldedbyRECAIisalso2.Energyimperativefactoredinasoneofthefundamentalpillars,becauseit3.Policyprovidesastrongoverviewoftheexistingandpotential4.Projectdeliverystrengthofamarket’srenewableenergylandscape.5.TechnologySpecialthankstoPexaparkforprovidingaccesstotheirdata.RenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex61026ContactsArnauddeGiovanniBenWarrenGregMatlockSomeshKumarForewordRECAI61EYGlobalRenewablesLeaderRECAIChiefEditorEYAmericasEnergyTransitionandEYIndiaPower&UtilitiesLeaderNormalizedindexarnaud.de.giovanni@fr.ey.comPartner,RenewablesCorporateRenewableEnergyLeadersomesh.kumar@in.ey.comPPAindexKeydevelopmentsFinance,Ernst&YoungLLPgreg.matlock@ey.comAnalysisRegionalfocusbwarren@uk.ey.comDataandmethodologyAndrewHorsteadStephanieChesnickSonalAgarwalBrunoBousquiéMichaelNewmanAlexLuKapilBansalContactsEYGlobalPower&UtilitiesEYAmericasAssociatePartner,EnergyStrategyandTransactionsLeaderEYOceaniaRenewablesLeaderAssociatePartner,Ernst&YoungPartner,Ernst&YoungLLPLeadAnalystStrategyandTransactionsTransition&ClimateStrategyFrance,Ernst&YoungAdvisorymichael.newman@au.ey.comHuaMingLLPkapil.bansal1@in.ey.comEnergy&ResourcesLeaderahorstead@uk.ey.comStrategyandTransactions,EYbruno.bousquie@parthenon.ey.comalex.lu@cn.ey.comstephanie.chesnick@ey.comCorporateAdvisorsPte.Ltd.sonal.agarwal@sg.ey.comKiranK.MallaPankhuriNebPhilDominyLavaanyaRekhiNathanDockerPartner,Ernst&YoungLLPSenior,Ernst&YoungLLPSeniorRECAIAdvisorRECAIAdvisorEYUK&IEnergyandInfrastructurekiran.malla@parthenon.ey.compankhuri.neb@uk.ey.comErnst&YoungLLPEYUK&IEnergyandInfrastructureCorporateFinanceSeniorExecutivepdominy@uk.ey.comCorporateFinanceSeniorExecutiveErnst&YoungLLPErnst&YoungLLPnathan.docker@uk.ey.comlrekhi@uk.ey.comRenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6127CitationsReferencesForewordRECAI61NormalizedindexPPAindexKeydevelopmentsAnalysisRegionalfocusDataandmethodologyContactsRenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6128CitationsReferencesForewordRECAI61NormalizedindexPPAindexKeydevelopmentsAnalysisRegionalfocusDataandmethodologyContactsRenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6129CitationsReferencesForewordRECAI61NormalizedindexPPAindexKeydevelopmentsAnalysisRegionalfocusDataandmethodologyContactsRenewableEnergyCountryAttractivenessIndex6130EYBuildingabetterworkingworldBackEYexiststobuildabetterworkingworld,helpingtocreatelong-termvalueforclients,peopleandsocietyandbuildtrustinthecapitalmarkets.Enabledbydataandtechnology,diverseEYteamsinover150countriesprovidetrustthroughassuranceandhelpclientsgrow,transformandoperate.Workingacrossassurance,consulting,law,strategy,taxandtransactions,EYteamsaskbetterquestionstofindnewanswersforthecomplexissuesfacingourworldtoday.EYreferstotheglobalorganization,andmayrefertooneormore,ofthememberfirmsofErnst&YoungGlobalLimited,eachofwhichisaseparatelegalentity.Ernst&YoungGlobalLimited,aUKcompanylimitedbyguarantee,doesnotprovideservicestoclients.InformationabouthowEYcollectsandusespersonaldataandadescriptionoftherightsindividualshaveunderdataprotectionlegislationareavailableviaey.com/privacy.EYmemberfirmsdonotpracticelawwhereprohibitedbylocallaws.Formoreinformationaboutourorganization,pleasevisitey.com.©2023EYGMLimited.AllRightsReserved.EYGno.005518-23GblBMCAgencyGA174030779EDNoneThismaterialhasbeenpreparedforgeneralinformationalpurposesonlyandisnotintendedtoberelieduponasaccounting,tax,legalorotherprofessionaladvice.Pleaserefertoyouradvisorsforspecificadvice.TheviewsofthirdpartiessetoutinthispublicationarenotnecessarilytheviewsoftheglobalEYorganizationoritsmemberfirms.Moreover,theyshouldbeseeninthecontextofthetimetheyweremade.ey.com

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