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Policymakers and investors often refer to battery, new energy vehicle (NEV) andn

renewable energy as the “New Three” of the Chinese economy, in comparison

to the “Old Three” such as furniture, home appliance and clothing in Chinese

exports; or property, infrastructure and processing trade in the overall economy.

NEV and battery production, as well as renewable energy capex, have seen

signiﬁcant increases in recent years and are expected to continue growing

rapidly in coming years, adding to headline GDP growth in China.

Leveraging the framework in our research on green capex, we investigate hown

much the “New Three” would directly and indirectly contribute to China’s GDP

over the next ﬁve years. Taking NEV as an example, we found that, for each 1

trillion RMB domestic ﬁnal demand in NEV production, induced domestic

value-added would be 840bn RMB and induced urban employment would be

roughly 2.8mn persons. Both value-added amount and employment impact are

slightly smaller than residential housing construction per yuan of demand.

Putting NEV, battery production and wind/solar power generation capex together,n

our analysis suggests that the “New Three” could only partially offset the drag

on growth from the property downcycle (including both through property

investment and upstream sectors, and also through real estate services, ﬁscal

and consumption channels). The likely impact on real GDP growth (from

expanding “New Three” but a shrinking property sector and declining traditional

vehicle production) is -0.5pp per year from 2023-2027 based on our estimates.

Based on our expectation of expanding “New Three” but a shrinking propertyn

sector and declining traditional vehicle production, the net impact on urban

employment will also be negative. Frictional unemployment will likely exist as

well. We continue to believe China’s overall economic growth in the next few

years will decelerate as the multi-year property downturn proceeds, despite the

government’s efforts to develop the “New Three”. We expect China’s real GDP

growth to slow from 4.5% in 2024 to 3.7% in 2027.

Maggie Wei

+852-2978-6962 | maggie.wei@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Xinquan Chen

+852-2978-2418 | xinquan.chen@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Hui Shan

+852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Lisheng Wang

+852-3966-4004 |

lisheng.wang@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Yuting Yang

+852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Andrew Tilton

+852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Asia Economics Analyst

Sizing the “New Three” in the Chinese Economy

19 October 2023 | 6:04AM HKT

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC

certiﬁcation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

a3194d4bc6d047f488bef73494dfc726

Sizing the “New Three” in the Chinese Economy

China’s decarbonization efforts boosted growth in new energy vehicle (NEV), battery and

renewable energy sectors. These sectors are often referred to as the “New Three” of

the Chinese economy, which highlights their signiﬁcance in policymakers’ pursuit of

“high-quality growth”, explains their exponential growth in recent years, and suggests

their increasing importance to the overall economy in future years. Our analysis

suggests that the “New Three” could only partially offset the drag on growth from the

property downcycles (including both through property investment and upstream

sectors, and also through real estate services, ﬁscal and consumption channels). The

impact on real GDP growth (from expanding “New Three” but a shrinking property

sector and declining traditional vehicle production) is -0.5pp per year from 2023-2027

based on our estimates, with the drag being most negative this year and fading

gradually towards -0.2 in 2027.

Although these sectors are often discussed together, the channels through which they

contribute to the Chinese economy differ somewhat. Renewable energy involves large

investment in wind and solar power generation, which mostly adds to GDP growth

through investment induced production across upstream sectors. NEV and battery

production are playing increasingly important roles in the total production chain of the

economy. Exhibit 1 showed the rapid growth of NEV and battery production, and

wind/solar power generation capacity in recent years.

Gauging the importance of the “New Three” in the Chinese economy: the

example of NEV

NEV production volume increased from 1 million units in 2018 to 6.7 million units in

2022. Although the share of GDP accounted for directly by activities of NEV production

is relatively small at less than 1% of GDP (our estimate of share in 2022), overall impact

on China’s GDP can be bigger if we count domestic economic activities embodied in

ﬁnal demand for NEV production, which include sector activities such as battery

production and non-ferrous metals (e.g., copper and aluminum) smelting and pressing.

Exhibit 1: NEV and battery production, and wind/solar power

generation capacity showed exponential growth in recent years

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E

NEV production

Battery production

Wind and solar power generation capacity

Index (2015=100) Index (2015=100)

Source: NBS, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

19 October 2023 2

Goldman Sachs Asia Economics Analyst

a3194d4bc6d047f488bef73494dfc726

The input structure of NEV production estimated by ERIA (Economic Research Institute

for ASEAN and East Asia) in 20201 showed that major inputs to NEV production include

battery, electric motor, and wire and cable, different from inputs to traditional vehicle

(internal combustion engine vehicle, ICEV) production which mainly include engine and

vehicle parts (Exhibit 2)

To capture the impact more comprehensively, we examine both direct contribution from

NEV production and domestic value-added in the rest of the economy embedded in the

ﬁnal demand of NEV production using input-output analysis. Input-output analysis

illustrates the interdependencies between different economic sectors and industries.

Following the framework in our report on green capex’s impact on the Chinese

economy, we map out NEV’s supply chains based on the NBS 2020 input-output (IO)

table. The 2020 IO table illustrates the linkages between 153 sectors in the Chinese

economy, and is the latest version of detailed IO tables published by the NBS. The ERIA

input structure for NEV production and the NBS IO table allow us to map each yuan of

NEV ﬁnal demand proportionally into required activities from different sectors of the

economy.2

One important note is that in this report, we focus on mapping industry linkages of NEV

production, rather than NEV capex, due to data limitation on the input structure of NEV

capex. NEV production will likely continue growing fast, on potential higher penetration

of NEV domestically and fast NEV export growth, but NEV capex growth is set to slow

after the initial investment stage of building out factories. The GS auto research team

expects net addition to NEV production capacity to be 2mn units in 2027, but total NEV

production to be around 18mn units in 2027 (vs 6.7mn units in 2022). In addition, the

average capex per unit of NEV production can be much smaller than the average cost of

goods sold per unit of NEV production. NEV production is therefore a much bigger and

1ERIA (2020). “The Inﬂuence on Energy and the Economy of Electriﬁed VehiclePenetration in ASEAN”. ERIA

Research Project Report 2020, No. 14.

2We use battery electric vehicle (BEV) input structure to represent NEV in this analysis. To the extent

technological advancements shift signiﬁcantly for the input structure of NEV production, our projection

post-2020 could be biased as we only have the data for the 2020 NEV input structure and IO table.

Exhibit 2: NEV production mainly requires battery and electric motors

while ICEV production requires engine, vehicle parts and electric

parts

100

ICEV NEV

Input structure for traditional vehicle vs EV

Capital Labor Engine Battery

Wire and cable Electric parts Electronic parts Vehicle parts

Other parts Service Electric motor

Percent

Source: ERIA (2020)

19 October 2023 3

Goldman Sachs Asia Economics Analyst

a3194d4bc6d047f488bef73494dfc726

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19October20236:04AMHKTAsiaEconomicsAnalystSizingthe“NewThree”intheChineseEconomynPolicymakersandinvestorsoftenrefertobattery,newenergyvehicle(NEV)andMaggieWeirenewableenergyasthe“NewThree”oftheChineseeconomy,incomparisontothe“OldThree”suchasfurniture,homeapplianceandclothinginChinese+852-2978-6962maggie.wei@gs.comexports;orproperty,infrastructureandprocessingtradeintheoveralleconomy.GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.NEVandbatteryproduction,aswellasrenewableenergycapex,haveseensigniﬁcantincreasesinrecentyearsandareexpectedtocontinuegrowingXinquanChenrapidlyincomingyears,addingtoheadlineGDPgrowthinChina.+852-2978-2418xinquan.chen@gs.comnLeveragingtheframeworkinourresearchongreencapex,weinvestigatehowGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.muchthe“NewThree”woulddirectlyandindirectlycontributetoChina’sGDPoverthenextﬁveyears.TakingNEVasanexample,wefoundthat,foreach1HuiShantrillionRMBdomesticﬁnaldemandinNEVproduction,induceddomesticvalue-addedwouldbe840bnRMBandinducedurbanemploymentwouldbe+852-2978-6634hui.shan@gs.comroughly2.8mnpersons.Bothvalue-addedamountandemploymentimpactareGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.slightlysmallerthanresidentialhousingconstructionperyuanofdemand.LishengWangnPuttingNEV,batteryproductionandwind/solarpowergenerationcapextogether,ouranalysissuggeststhatthe“NewThree”couldonlypartiallyoffsetthedrag+852-3966-4004ongrowthfromthepropertydowncycle(includingboththroughpropertylisheng.wang@gs.cominvestmentandupstreamsectors,andalsothroughrealestateservices,ﬁscalGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.andconsumptionchannels).ThelikelyimpactonrealGDPgrowth(fromexpanding“NewThree”butashrinkingpropertysectoranddecliningtraditionalYutingYangvehicleproduction)is-0.5ppperyearfrom2023-2027basedonourestimates.+852-2978-7283yuting.y.yang@gs.comnBasedonourexpectationofexpanding“NewThree”butashrinkingpropertyGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.sectoranddecliningtraditionalvehicleproduction,thenetimpactonurbanemploymentwillalsobenegative.FrictionalunemploymentwilllikelyexistasAndrewTiltonwell.WecontinuetobelieveChina’soveralleconomicgrowthinthenextfewyearswilldecelerateasthemulti-yearpropertydownturnproceeds,despitethe+852-2978-1802andrew.tilton@gs.comgovernment’seffortstodevelopthe“NewThree”.WeexpectChina’srealGDPGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.growthtoslowfrom4.5%in2024to3.7%in2027.a3194d4bc6d047f488bef73494dfc726Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertiﬁcationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgotowww.gs.com/research/hedge.html.GoldmanSachsAsiaEconomicsAnalystSizingthe“NewThree”intheChineseEconomyChina’sdecarbonizationeffortsboostedgrowthinnewenergyvehicle(NEV),batteryandrenewableenergysectors.Thesesectorsareoftenreferredtoasthe“NewThree”oftheChineseeconomy,whichhighlightstheirsigniﬁcanceinpolicymakers’pursuitof“high-qualitygrowth”,explainstheirexponentialgrowthinrecentyears,andsuggeststheirincreasingimportancetotheoveralleconomyinfutureyears.Ouranalysissuggeststhatthe“NewThree”couldonlypartiallyoffsetthedragongrowthfromthepropertydowncycles(includingboththroughpropertyinvestmentandupstreamsectors,andalsothroughrealestateservices,ﬁscalandconsumptionchannels).TheimpactonrealGDPgrowth(fromexpanding“NewThree”butashrinkingpropertysectoranddecliningtraditionalvehicleproduction)is-0.5ppperyearfrom2023-2027basedonourestimates,withthedragbeingmostnegativethisyearandfadinggraduallytowards-0.2in2027.Althoughthesesectorsareoftendiscussedtogether,thechannelsthroughwhichtheycontributetotheChineseeconomydiffersomewhat.Renewableenergyinvolveslargeinvestmentinwindandsolarpowergeneration,whichmostlyaddstoGDPgrowththroughinvestmentinducedproductionacrossupstreamsectors.NEVandbatteryproductionareplayingincreasinglyimportantrolesinthetotalproductionchainoftheeconomy.Exhibit1showedtherapidgrowthofNEVandbatteryproduction,andwind/solarpowergenerationcapacityinrecentyears.Exhibit1:NEVandbatteryproduction,andwind/solarpowergenerationcapacityshowedexponentialgrowthinrecentyearsIndex(2015=100)Index(2015=100)5,0005,0004,000NEVproduction4,000a3194d4bc6d047f488bef73494dfc7263,000Batteryproduction3,0002,000Windandsolarpowergenerationcapacity2,0001,0001,00000201520162017201820192020202120222023ESource:NBS,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchGaugingtheimportanceofthe“NewThree”intheChineseeconomy:theexampleofNEVNEVproductionvolumeincreasedfrom1millionunitsin2018to6.7millionunitsin2022.AlthoughtheshareofGDPaccountedfordirectlybyactivitiesofNEVproductionisrelativelysmallatlessthan1%ofGDP(ourestimateofsharein2022),overallimpactonChina’sGDPcanbebiggerifwecountdomesticeconomicactivitiesembodiedinﬁnaldemandforNEVproduction,whichincludesectoractivitiessuchasbatteryproductionandnon-ferrousmetals(e.g.,copperandaluminum)smeltingandpressing.19October20232GoldmanSachsAsiaEconomicsAnalyst19October2023TheinputstructureofNEVproductionestimatedbyERIA(EconomicResearchInstituteforASEANandEastAsia)in20201showedthatmajorinputstoNEVproductionincludebattery,electricmotor,andwireandcable,differentfrominputstotraditionalvehicle(internalcombustionenginevehicle,ICEV)productionwhichmainlyincludeengineandvehicleparts(Exhibit2)Tocapturetheimpactmorecomprehensively,weexaminebothdirectcontributionfromNEVproductionanddomesticvalue-addedintherestoftheeconomyembeddedintheﬁnaldemandofNEVproductionusinginput-outputanalysis.Input-outputanalysisillustratestheinterdependenciesbetweendifferenteconomicsectorsandindustries.Followingtheframeworkinourreportongreencapex’simpactontheChineseeconomy,wemapoutNEV’ssupplychainsbasedontheNBS2020input-output(IO)table.The2020IOtableillustratesthelinkagesbetween153sectorsintheChineseeconomy,andisthelatestversionofdetailedIOtablespublishedbytheNBS.TheERIAinputstructureforNEVproductionandtheNBSIOtableallowustomapeachyuanofNEVﬁnaldemandproportionallyintorequiredactivitiesfromdifferentsectorsoftheeconomy.2Exhibit2:NEVproductionmainlyrequiresbatteryandelectricmotorswhileICEVproductionrequiresengine,vehiclepartsandelectricpartsPercentInputstructurefortraditionalvehiclevsEVPercent10010090908080707060605050404030302020101000BatteryVehiclepartsICEVLaborNEVa3194d4bc6d047f488bef73494dfc726CapitalElectricpartsEngineWireandcableServiceElectronicpartsOtherpartsElectricmotorSource:ERIA(2020)Oneimportantnoteisthatinthisreport,wefocusonmappingindustrylinkagesofNEVproduction,ratherthanNEVcapex,duetodatalimitationontheinputstructureofNEVcapex.NEVproductionwilllikelycontinuegrowingfast,onpotentialhigherpenetrationofNEVdomesticallyandfastNEVexportgrowth,butNEVcapexgrowthissettoslowaftertheinitialinvestmentstageofbuildingoutfactories.TheGSautoresearchteamexpectsnetadditiontoNEVproductioncapacitytobe2mnunitsin2027,buttotalNEVproductiontobearound18mnunitsin2027(vs6.7mnunitsin2022).Inaddition,theaveragecapexperunitofNEVproductioncanbemuchsmallerthantheaveragecostofgoodssoldperunitofNEVproduction.NEVproductionisthereforeamuchbiggerand1ERIA(2020).“TheInﬂuenceonEnergyandtheEconomyofElectriﬁedVehiclePenetrationinASEAN”.ERIAResearchProjectReport2020,No.14.2Weusebatteryelectricvehicle(BEV)inputstructuretorepresentNEVinthisanalysis.TotheextenttechnologicaladvancementsshiftsigniﬁcantlyfortheinputstructureofNEVproduction,ourprojectionpost-2020couldbebiasedasweonlyhavethedataforthe2020NEVinputstructureandIOtable.3GoldmanSachsAsiaEconomicsAnalystmoresustainabledriverforgrowthinChina,comparedwithNEVcapex.Sectorsmosta3194d4bc6d047f488bef73494dfc726affectedbytheﬁnaldemandofNEVproductioninvolvebatteryandwireandcableasdiscussedabove,whileNEVcapexinvolvesmachinery,factories,andconstructionofassemblylines.3WefoundthatforeachyuanofﬁnaldemandofNEVproduction,totaldomesticvalue-addeddirectlyandindirectlyis0.84yuan.NEVproductionalsodrivesimports-theinducedvalue-addedcontentinimports(boththroughautosectoritselfandthroughrelatedsectors)wouldamountto0.16yuan.ComparingNEVproductionvsresidentialhousingconstructionAsinvestorsoftenaskwhichsectorscanatleastpartiallyoffsetthenegativeimpactongrowthfromdecliningpropertyinvestment,wecomparetotaldomesticvalue-addedfromﬁnaldemandofNEVproductiontothatofresidentialhousingconstruction.Insum,ouranalysissuggestseachyuanofﬁnaldemandinNEVproductiongeneratesslightlylowerdomesticvalue-addedvspropertyinvestment(0.84vs0.88).TherelevantindustriescontributingtoNEVproductionandresidentialhousingconstructionarequitedifferent.Forexample,motorvehicleparts,batteryandwholesaletradearethetopthreebroadindustriesthatwouldbeneﬁtthemostinvalue-addedtermsfromeachyuanﬁnaldemandofNEVproduction(Exhibit3).Incontrast,ﬁnancialservices,wholesaletradeandsmeltingandprocessingofferrousmetalwouldbeneﬁtthemostinvalue-addedtermsfromeachyuanofinvestmentinresidentialhousingconstruction(Exhibit4).Asaresult,inashiftfromRMB1trillionﬁnaldemandinresidentialhousingconstructiontoRMB1trilliondomesticﬁnaldemandofNEVproduction,theindustrieswiththelargestincreaseindomesticvalue-addedwouldbebattery,vehiclepartsandnon-ferrousmetalsmeltingandprocessing,whilecement,ferrousmetalsmelting,andﬁnancialserviceswouldseethelargestdeclineinvalue-added(Exhibit5).NEVproductionalsotendstocreatefewerjobscomparedwithresidentialhousingconstruction:for1trillionRMBﬁnaldemandofNEVproduction,2.8mnjobswouldbecreatedwhileforeach1trillioninvestmentinresidentialhousingconstruction,3.7mnjobswouldbecreated,reﬂectingthefactthatconstructionactivitiesaremorelaborintensivecomparedwithmanufacturingactivities.Acrossthebroadeconomicsectors,switchingfrom1trillionRMBﬁnaldomesticdemandinpropertyinvestmenttoﬁnaldemandinNEVproduction,lessthan1madditionaljobswouldbecreatedinthemanufacturingsector,butaround1.4mjobswouldbelostintheconstructionsector.Theimpactonprimaryindustry,servicesandutilitiesemploymentwouldbenegativeaswell(Exhibit6).19October20233Limitedbydataavailability,wedonotconsiderNEVdownstreamsectorssuchaschargingstationsinthisreport.4GoldmanSachsAsiaEconomicsAnalystExhibit3:Motorvehicleparts,wholesaletradeandbatterywouldExhibit4:…whileresidentialhousinginvestmentbeneﬁtsﬁnancialbeneﬁtthemostfromNEVproduction…services,wholesaletradeandferrousmetalprocessingandsmeltingthemostDomesticVA(top10sectors)forRMB1tndomesticfinaldemandinNEVproductionDomesticVA(top10sectors)forRMB1tndomesticfinaldemandinresidentialhousingconstructionRoadcargotransportRealestateMetalproductsUtilitiesRealestateCommercialservicesMiningandwashingofcoalNon-ferrousmetalsandtheiralloysCementFinancialservicesRetailtradeRetailtradeUtilitiesBatteryPlasterWholesaletradeSmeltingandprocessingof…MotorvehiclepartsandaccessoriesWholesaletrade0Financialservices1020304050010203040506070RMBbnRMBbnSource:NBS,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:NBS,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchExhibit5:Cementandrelatedproducts,ferrousmetals,andExhibit6:Onlythemanufacturingsectorwouldseejobgainsinaﬁnancialserviceswillbehitthemostbyashiftfromresidentialshiftfrom1tnRMBofdemandfromresidentialinvestmenttoNEVinvestmenttoNEVproductionproductionDifferenceofVAforRMB1tndomesticfinaldemandshiftfromNEVtoresidentialhousingThouspersonsThouspersonsFinancialservicesPlaster1,500EmploymentimpactofshiiftingRMB1tnofdemandfromresidentialinvestment1,500Cement1,000toNEVproduction1,000FerrousmetalsBuildingmaterials500500…Retailtrade00ElectricMotor-500-500Non-ferrousmetalsandtheiralloysMotorvehiclepartsandaccessories-1,000-1,000Battery-30-20-10010203040-1,500ConstructionManufacturing-1,500RMBbnServicesPrimaryUtilitiesSource:NBS,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:NBS,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearcha3194d4bc6d047f488bef73494dfc726Extendingtheanalysistocoverbatteryproduction4andwind/solarpowergenerationcapex,wecomparethetotaldomesticvalue-added,inducedvalue-addedimports,andinducedemploymentfromNEVproduction,batteryproduction,andwind/solarpowercapextothoseofICEVproductionandresidentialhousingconstruction.Ourinput-outputanalysissuggeststhedomesticvalue-addedratioforeachunitofﬁnaldemandwouldbethehighestforresidentialhousingconstruction(0.88)andthelowestforbattery(0.75).Theemploymentcontributionisthebiggestforresidentialhousing,andlowestforNEV(Exhibit7).19October20234BatteryisaseparatesectorinChina’s2020IOtable,thereforenoinputstructureassumptionisneeded.5GoldmanSachsAsiaEconomicsAnalyst19October2023Exhibit7:“NewThree”inducesmodestlylessdomesticvalue-added,morevalue-addedimports,andfewerjobscomparedwithresidentialhousingconstructionTnRMB%ofurbanemployment1.51.51.0TotaleconomicimpactfromRMB1tndemandinEV,wind/solarpower,batteryvsICEVandresidentialhousingNEVWind/solar1.0BatteryICEVResidentialhousingconstruction0.50.50.00.0Domesticvalue-addedInducedvalue-addedimportsEmploymentimpact(rhs)Source:NBS,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchThefuturepathof“NewThree”andtheircontributiontoGDPgrowtha3194d4bc6d047f488bef73494dfc726DecarbonizationeffortswilllikelycontinuedrivingfastgrowthofNEVandbatteryproductionandrenewableenergycapexinChina.WhileweareoptimisticaboutNEVproductioninthenextfewyears,totalpassengercarconsumptionandproductioninChinahingeonbothmacrofactorssuchashouseholdincomeandconsumerconﬁdenceandmicrofactorssuchaswhetherfamilieswillwanttoowntwocarsinthefuture,oneICEVforlong-distancedrivingandoneNEVforurbandriving.Aspropertydowncyclemightcontinueweighingonconsumersentimentinthenextfewyears,barringmajorconsumptionstimulativepoliciessuchasdirecttransferstohouseholds,weexpecthouseholdconsumptiongrowthtodeceleratefrom2023through2027.Itmightbechallengingtoseeoveralldomesticpassengercardemandgrowingataveryfastpaceasaresult.China’stotalpassengercarproductionroseby2.3%yoyperyearonaveragefrom2015-2019.Werunascenarioanalysisonprojectingfuturetotalpassengercarproduction:nInalowgrowthscenario,weexpecttotalpassengercarproductiontogrowby2%peryearfrom2024to2027.Inahighgrowthscenario,weadoptourequityresearchteam’sexpectationontotalpassengercarproduction,whichwouldgrowby4.7%yoyperyearoverthesametimehorizon.nInbothscenarios,weremainpositiveonNEV’spenetrationinChinaandforecastNEVproductiontoaccountfor60%oftotalpassengercarproductioninChinaby2027,upfrom29%in2022.China’smarketshareinglobalNEVexportswentupto60%in2023accordingtoChinaPassengerCarAssociation(CPCA).LargeDMssuchastheEuroAreastartedtoconsiderrestrictingChineseexportsofNEV,sothemarketsharegainofChineseNEVmaybeslowerincomingyears.However,incomparisonwithtotalNEVproduction,exportvolumetookaround16%intotalChinaNEVproductionin2022,sodomesticdemandremainsthebiggerpartforChinaNEVproductionrelativetoexportsinthenextfewyears(Exhibit8).Therefore,6GoldmanSachsAsiaEconomicsAnalystweuseourequityresearchteam’sforecastsforChineseNEVexportsandICEVexportsinbothscenarios.5Ourassumptiononthelowgrowthscenariothusimpliestotalpassengercarproductionnotforexportswouldremainbroadlyunchangedoverthenextfewyears,whileinhighgrowthscenario,totalpassengercarproductionnotforexportsgraduallygrowsbyaround2%peryear.nIncontrast,wethinkresidentialhousinginvestmentissettodeclineincomingyears.Propertyinventoriesstayhighinlower-tiercitiesandconﬁdencetowardsthepropertymarketoutlookremainsweak.Inbothscenarios,weexpectpropertyinvestmenttodeclinebyanaveragerateof4%peryearoverthenextﬁveyears,consistentwithourpropertycontributiontoGDPmodel.nWeadoptpublishedGSequityresearchforecastforbatteryproductionandwind/solarpowergenerationcapexinbothscenarios.GSequityforecastsassumebatteryproduction,andwind/solarpowergenerationrelatedcapextogrowbyaround150%and120%cumulativelyby2027relativeto2022(Exhibit9).Inthelowgrowthscenario,grossdomesticvalue-addedofthe“NewThree”(namelyexpectedNEVandbatteryproduction,aswellasexpectedcapexinwind/solarpowergeneration)canincreasefrom3trillionRMB(in2020price)in2022to7.5trillionRMB(in2020price)in2027.(Toavoiddoublecounting,weonlyincludebatteryproductionnotusedforNEVorrenewableenergygeneration.Thiswouldmainlyincludebatteryproductionforconsumerelectronics,whichisroughly40%oftotalbatterydemandinChinacurrently.)Exhibit8:DomesticconsumptionwilllikelyremainthedominantExhibit9:NEVproductionislikelytoexpandquicklyoverthenextdriverforNEVproductionincomingyearsfewyearsMillionunitsMillionunitsRMBtn(2020price)RMBtn(2020price)357735Grossvalue-addedfromNewThree6Chinapassengercardata30654(historicalandforecastlowgrowthscenario)253302201ICEVtotalproduction025NEVproductionexclexports52026E2027ENEVexportsNEV(highgrowth)a3194d4bc6d047f488bef73494dfc72620NEV(lowgrowth)4ICEV(highgrowth)1515ICEV(lowgrowth)3Wind/solar1010Battery255102020202120220020192023E2024E2025E2026E2027E20202023onwardsdataareGSforecasts202120222023E2024E2025ESource:CPCA,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:NBS,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchMappingthegrossvalue-addedfrom“NewThree”toGDPcontribution,togetherwiththatfromtraditionalsectorssuchasICEVproductionandproperty,weﬁndthatthestrongexpansionof“NewThree”isstillnotenoughtooffsetthenegativedragongrowthfromshrinkingpropertysectoranddecliningICEVproduction.Propertysector’sshareinChina’sGDPthroughallchannelswilllikelyshrinkfromcloseto30%in2020(seeourreporthereformoredetaileddiscussions),toaround17%by2027(Exhibit10).Thedeclinecannotbefullyoffsetby“NewThree”basedonourcalculation.Inourlow19October20235Notethatinbothscenarios,ourexpectationfor2023productionisthesame,whichismarkedtomarketbasedonyear-to-dateperformance.7GoldmanSachsAsiaEconomicsAnalystgrowthscenario,thecombinedimpactonrealGDPyear-over-yeargrowthoverthenexta3194d4bc6d047f488bef73494dfc726ﬁveyearswouldbe-0.5pp,withthenetimpactbeingthemostnegativein2023,at-0.8ppofGDP,beforegraduallyfadingto-0.7ppin2024andﬁnallyonly-0.2ppby2027.Inthehighgrowthscenario,theaveragenetimpactonrealGDPgrowthwouldbe-0.3ppoverthenextﬁveyears,withthenetimpactbeingonly-0.07ppby2027(Exhibit12).Ouranalysisoninducedemploymentbydifferentsectorshowedthat,inlowgrowthscenario,urbanemploymentwouldbedownbymorethan3mnpersonsin2024.Inparticular,therewillbemanyjoblosses(around6mnpersons)inpropertyandICEVproduction,despitethearound3.7mnjobgainsin“NewThree”relatedjobs.Additionally,thenegativeimpactonemploymentmaybelargerthanimpliedbythesemechanicalcalculationsduetofrictionalunemployment,astheskillsetrequiredfromworkingin“NewThree”relatedjobswouldbevastlydifferentfromthoserequiredfromworkinginpropertyrelatedjobs.FrictionalunemploymentcanlowerconﬁdenceandweighonconsumptionandoverallGDPgrowth.Oneimportantcaveathereisouranalysisisbasedon2020input-outputtable.Wethereforehaveassumedtheinput-outputstructureforNEV,batteryproductionandrenewableenergygenerationcapexremainunchangedinfutureyears.Inreality,technologyadvancementaroundNEVandbatterycouldsigniﬁcantlyaltertheinputstructureoftheseindustries,aswellasotherindustriesintheChineseeconomypotentially.WeaimtoupdateouranalysisinthefuturewhenupdatedERIAdataandNBSIOtablebecomeavailable.Anothercaveatisthatouranalysismaynotcaptureallthelinkagesbetweenthe“NewThree”andthebroadereconomy.Forexample,NEVproductiondownstreamsectorssuchaschargingfacilitieswilllikelybeneﬁtfromrapidgrowthofNEVproductionandaddfurthertoourestimateof“NewThree”contributiontoGDPgrowthinfutureyears.Ontheotherhand,wealsodonotincludethenegativedragtoGDPfromfallinginfrastructureinvestmentassociatedwithpropertyinvestment(e.g.,roadsnearnewlybuiltapartmentcomplexes)orfromfallingservicesoutputassociatedwithICEV(e.g.,oilchangeservices).Exhibit10:PropertysectormaycontinueshrinkingrelativetototalExhibit11:TheexpansionofNewThreecanonlypartiallyoffsetthesizeofGDPincomingyearsnegativedragongrowthfrompropertydowncycleandlowerICEVproductionPercentPercentpppp5050ShareofChinaGDPbyNewThree,ICEVandproperty(lowgrowthscenario)3.03.04040ImpactonrealGDPgrowthfromtotalvalue-addedbysector(lowgrowthscenario)Property(allchannels)NEVNEVICEVICEVWind/solarBattery2.0Property(allchannels)Wind/solar2.0BatterySum1.01.030300.00.02020-1.0-1.01010-2.0-2.00202120222023E2024E2025E2026E0-3.020222023E2024E2025E2026E-3.020202027E20212027ESource:NBS,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch19October20238GoldmanSachsAsiaEconomicsAnalystExhibit12:EveninhighgrowthscenarioofChina’stotalpassengercarproduction,thenetimpactonrealGDPgrowthwillstillbenegativeoverthenextfewyearspppp0.2NetcontributionfromNewThree,property(allchannels)andICEVproductionto0.20.0China'srealGDPgrowthunderdifferentscenarios0.0-0.2HighgrowthLowgrowth-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.8-0.8-1.0-1.0-1.2-1.2-1.42023E2024E2025E2026E-1.420222027ESource:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchWethankTinaHouandEricSheninGSequityresearchteam,andSabrinaLukinAsiaeconomicsresearchteamfortheircontributionstothisreport.MaggieWeiandXinquanChena3194d4bc6d047f488bef73494dfc72619October20239GoldmanSachsAsiaEconomicsAnalystDisclosureAppendixRegACa3194d4bc6d047f488bef73494dfc726We,MaggieWei,XinquanChen,HuiShan,LishengWang,YutingYangandAndrewTilton,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreﬂectourpersonalviews,whichhavenotbeeninﬂuencedbyconsiderationsoftheﬁrm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.DisclosuresRegulatorydisclosuresDisclosuresrequiredbyUnitedStateslawsandregulationsSeecompany-speciﬁcregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublicofferingsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachstradesormaytradeasaprincipalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdiscussedinthisreport.Thefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialconﬂictsofinterest:GoldmanSachspolicyprohibitsitsanalysts,professionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Analystcompensation:AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheproﬁtabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.Analystasofﬁcerordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembersoftheirhouseholdsfromservingasanofﬁcer,directororadvisorofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Non-U.S.Analysts:Non-U.S.analystsmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCandthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241orFINRARule2242restrictionsoncommunicationswithsubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbytheanalysts.AdditionaldisclosuresrequiredunderthelawsandregulationsofjurisdictionsotherthantheUnitedStatesThefollowingdisclosuresarethoserequiredbythejurisdictionindicated,excepttotheextentalreadymadeabovepursuanttoUnitedStateslawsandregulations.Australia:GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtdanditsafﬁliatesarenotauthoriseddeposit-takinginstitutions(asthattermisdeﬁnedintheBankingAct1959(Cth))inAustraliaanddonotprovidebankingservices,norcarryonabankingbusiness,inAustralia.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor“wholesaleclients”withinthemeaningoftheAustralianCorporationsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.Inproducingresearchreports,membersofGlobalInvestmentResearchofGoldmanSachsAustraliamayattendsitevisitsandothermeetingshostedbythecompaniesandotherentitieswhicharethesubjectofitsresearchreports.InsomeinstancesthecostsofsuchsitevisitsormeetingsmaybemetinpartorinwholebytheissuersconcernedifGoldmanSachsAustraliaconsidersitisappropriateandreasonableinthespeciﬁccircumstancesrelatingtothesitevisitormeeting.Totheextentthatthecontentsofthisdocumentcontainsanyﬁnancialproductadvice,itisgeneraladviceonlyandhasbeenpreparedbyGoldmanSachswithouttakingintoaccountaclient’sobjectives,ﬁnancialsituationorneeds.Aclientshould,beforeactingonanysuchadvice,considertheappropriatenessoftheadvicehavingregardtotheclient’sownobjectives,ﬁnancialsituationandneeds.AcopyofcertainGoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsandacopyofGoldmanSachs’AustralianSell-SideResearchIndependencePolicyStatementareavailableat:https://www.goldmansachs.com/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html.Brazil:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoCVMResolutionn.20isavailableathttps://www.gs.com/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html.Whereapplicable,theBrazil-registeredanalystprimarilyresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreport,asdeﬁnedinArticle20ofCVMResolutionn.20,istheﬁrstauthornamedatthebeginningofthisreport,unlessindicatedotherwiseattheendofthetext.Canada:Thisinformationisbeingprovidedtoyouforinformationpurposesonlyandisnot,andundernocircumstancesshouldbeconstruedas,anadvertisement,offeringorsolicitationbyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCforpurchasersofsecuritiesinCanadatotradeinanyCanadiansecurity.GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCisnotregisteredasadealerinanyjurisdictioninCanadaunderapplicableCanadiansecuritieslawsandgenerallyisnotpermittedtotradeinCanadiansecuritiesandmaybeprohibitedfromsellingcertainsecuritiesandproductsincertainjurisdictionsinCanada.IfyouwishtotradeinanyCanadiansecuritiesorotherproductsinCanadapleasecontactGoldmanSachsCanadaInc.,anafﬁliateofTheGoldmanSachsGroupInc.,oranotherregisteredCanadiandealer.HongKong:FurtherinformationonthesecuritiesofcoveredcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedonrequestfromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.India:FurtherinformationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimited,ResearchAnalyst-SEBIRegistrationNumberINH000001493,951-A,RationalHouse,AppasahebMaratheMarg,Prabhadevi,Mumbai400025,India,CorporateIdentityNumberU74140MH2006FTC160634,Phone+912266169000,Fax+912266169001.GoldmanSachsmaybeneﬁciallyown1%ormoreofthesecurities(assuchtermisdeﬁnedinclause2(h)theIndianSecuritiesContracts(Regulation)Act,1956)ofthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchreport.Investmentinsecuritiesmarketaresubjecttomarketrisks.Readalltherelateddocumentscarefullybeforeinvesting.RegistrationgrantedbySEBIandcertiﬁcationfromNISMinnowayguaranteeperformanceoftheintermediaryorprovideanyassuranceofreturnstoinvestors.GoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimitedInvestorGrievanceE-mail:india-client-support@gs.com.ComplianceOfﬁcer:AnilRajputTel:+912266169000Email:anil.m.rajput@gs.com.Japan:Seebelow.Korea:Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor“professionalinvestors”withinthemeaningoftheFinancialServicesandCapitalMarketsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.FurtherinformationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch.NewZealand:GoldmanSachsNewZealandLimitedanditsafﬁliatesareneither“registeredbanks”nor“deposittakers”(asdeﬁnedintheReserveBankofNewZealandAct1989)inNewZealand.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedfor“wholesaleclients”(asdeﬁnedintheFinancialAdvisersAct2008)unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.AcopyofcertainGoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsisavailableat:https://www.goldmansachs.com/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html.Russia:ResearchreportsdistributedintheRussianFederationarenotadvertisingasdeﬁnedintheRussianlegislation,butareinformationandanalysisnothavingproductpromotionastheirmainpurposeanddonotprovideappraisalwithinthemeaningoftheRussianlegislationonappraisalactivity.ResearchreportsdonotconstituteapersonalizedinvestmentrecommendationasdeﬁnedinRussianlawsandregulations,arenotaddressedtoaspeciﬁcclient,andarepreparedwithoutanalyzingtheﬁnancialcircumstances,investmentproﬁlesorriskproﬁlesofclients.GoldmanSachsassumesnoresponsibilityforanyinvestmentdecisionsthatmaybetakenbyaclientoranyotherpersonbasedonthisresearchreport.Singapore:GoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte.(CompanyNumber:198602165W),whichisregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore,acceptslegalresponsibilityforthisresearch,andshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,thisresearch.Taiwan:Thismaterialisforreferenceonlyandmustnotbereprintedwithoutpermission.Investorsshouldcarefullyconsidertheirowninvestmentrisk.Investmentresultsaretheresponsibilityoftheindividualinvestor.UnitedKingdom:PersonswhowouldbecategorizedasretailclientsintheUnitedKingdom,assuchtermisdeﬁnedintherulesoftheFinancialConductAuthority,shouldreadthisresearchinconjunctionwithpriorGoldmanSachsresearchonthecoveredcompaniesreferredtohereinandshouldrefertotheriskwarningsthathavebeensenttothembyGoldmanSachsInternational.Acopyoftheseriskswarnings,andaglossaryofcertainﬁnancialtermsusedinthisreport,areavailablefromGoldmanSachsInternationalonrequest.EuropeanUnionandUnitedKingdom:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoArticle6(2)oftheEuropeanCommissionDelegatedRegulation(EU)(2016/958)supplementingRegulation(EU)No596/2014oftheEuropeanParliamentandoftheCouncil(includingasthatDelegatedRegulationis19October202310GoldmanSachsAsiaEconomicsAnalystimplementedintoUnitedKingdomdomesticlawandregulationfollowingtheUnitedKingdom’sdeparturefromtheEuropeanUnionandtheEuropeana3194d4bc6d047f488bef73494dfc726EconomicArea)withregardtoregulatorytechnicalstandardsforthetechnicalarrangementsforobjectivepresentationofinvestmentrecommendationsorotherinformationrecommendingorsuggestinganinvestmentstrategyandfordisclosureofparticularinterestsorindicationsofconﬂictsofinterestisavailableathttps://www.gs.com/disclosures/europeanpolicy.htmlwhichstatestheEuropeanPolicyforManagingConﬂictsofInterestinConnectionwithInvestmentResearch.Japan:GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.isaFinancialInstrumentDealerregisteredwiththeKantoFinancialBureauunderregistrationnumberKinsho69,andamemberofJapanSecuritiesDealersAssociation,FinancialFuturesAssociationofJapanTypeIIFinancialInstrumentsFirmsAssociation,TheInvestmentTrustsAssociation,Japan,andJapanInvestmentAdvisersAssociation.Salesandpurchaseofequitiesaresubjecttocommissionpre-determinedwithclientsplusconsumptiontax.Seecompany-speciﬁcdisclosuresastoanyapplicabledisclosuresrequiredbyJapanesestockexchanges,theJapaneseSecuritiesDealersAssociationortheJapaneseSecuritiesFinanceCompany.Globalproduct;distributingentitiesGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchproducesanddistributesresearchproductsforclientsofGoldmanSachsonaglobalbasis.AnalystsbasedinGoldmanSachsofﬁcesaroundtheworldproduceresearchonindustriesandcompanies,andresearchonmacroeconomics,currencies,commoditiesandportfoliostrategy.ThisresearchisdisseminatedinAustraliabyGoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtd(ABN21006797897);inBrazilbyGoldmanSachsdoBrasilCorretoradeTítuloseValoresMobiliáriosS.A.;PublicCommunicationChannelGoldmanSachsBrazil:08007275764and/orcontatogoldmanbrasil@gs.com.AvailableWeekdays(exceptholidays),from9amto6pm.CanaldeComunicaçãocomoPúblicoGoldmanSachsBrasil:08007275764e/oucontatogoldmanbrasil@gs.com.Horáriodefuncionamento:segunda-feiraàsexta-feira(excetoferiados),das9hàs18h;inCanadabyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC;inHongKongbyGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.;inIndiabyGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLtd.;inJapanbyGoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.;intheRepublicofKoreabyGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch;inNewZealandbyGoldmanSachsNewZealandLimited;inRussiabyOOOGoldmanSachs;inSingaporebyGoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte.(CompanyNumber:198602165W);andintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC.GoldmanSachsInternationalhasapprovedthisresearchinconnectionwithitsdistributionintheUnitedKingdom.GoldmanSachsInternational(“GSI”),authorisedbythePrudentialRegulationAuthority(“PRA”)andregulatedbytheFinancialConductAuthority(“FCA”)andthePRA,hasapprovedthisresearchinconnectionwithitsdistributionintheUnitedKingdom.EuropeanEconomicArea:GSI,authorisedbythePRAandregulatedbytheFCAandthePRA,disseminatesresearchinthefollowingjurisdictionswithintheEuropeanEconomicArea:theGrandDuchyofLuxembourg,Italy,theKingdomofBelgium,theKingdomofDenmark,theKingdomofNorway,theRepublicofFinlandandtheRepublicofIreland;GSI-SuccursaledeParis(Parisbranch)whichisauthorisedbytheFrenchAutoritédecontrôleprudentieletderesolution(“ACPR”)andregulatedbytheAutoritédecontrôleprudentieletderesolutionandtheAutoritédesmarchesﬁnanciers(“AMF”)disseminatesresearchinFrance;GSI-SucursalenEspaña(Madridbranch)authorizedinSpainbytheComisiónNacionaldelMercadodeValoresdisseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSpain;GSI-SwedenBankﬁlial(Stockholmbranch)isauthorizedbytheSFSAasa“thirdcountrybranch”inaccordancewithChapter4,Section4oftheSwedishSecuritiesandMarketAct(Sw.lag(2007:528)omvärdepappersmarknaden)disseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSweden;GoldmanSachsBankEuropeSE(“GSBE”)isacreditinstitutionincorporatedinGermanyand,withintheSingleSupervisoryMechanism,subjecttodirectprudentialsupervisionbytheEuropeanCentralBankandinotherrespectssupervisedbyGermanFederalFinancialSupervisoryAuthority(BundesanstaltfürFinanzdienstleistungsaufsicht,BaFin)andDeutscheBundesbankanddisseminatesresearchintheFederalRepublicofGermanyandthosejurisdictionswithintheEuropeanEconomicAreawhereGSIisnotauthorisedtodisseminateresearchandadditionally,GSBE,CopenhagenBranchﬁlialafGSBE,Tyskland,supervisedbytheDanishFinancialAuthoritydisseminatesresearchintheKingdomofDenmark;GSBE-SucursalenEspaña(Madridbranch)subject(toalimitedextent)tolocalsupervisionbytheBankofSpaindisseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSpain;GSBE-SuccursaleItalia(Milanbranch)totherelevantapplicableextent,subjecttolocalsupervisionbytheBankofItaly(Bancad’Italia)andtheItalianCompaniesandExchangeCommission(CommissioneNazionaleperleSocietàelaBorsa“Consob”)disseminatesresearchinItaly;GSBE-SuccursaledeParis(Parisbranch),supervisedbytheAMFandbytheACPRdisseminatesresearchinFrance;andGSBE-SwedenBankﬁlial(Stockholmbranch),toalimitedextent,subjecttolocalsupervisionbytheSwedishFinancialSupervisoryAuthority(Finansinpektionen)disseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSweden.GeneraldisclosuresThisresearchisforourclientsonly.OtherthandisclosuresrelatingtoGoldmanSachs,thisresearchisbasedoncurrentpublicinformationthatweconsiderreliable,butwedonotrepresentitisaccurateorcomplete,anditshouldnotbereliedonassuch.Theinformation,opinions,estimatesandforecastscontainedhereinareasofthedatehereofandaresubjecttochangewithoutpriornotiﬁcation.Weseektoupdateourresearchasappropriate,butvariousregulationsmaypreventusfromdoingso.Otherthancertainindustryreportspublishedonaperiodicbasis,thelargemajorityofreportsarepublishedatirregularintervalsasappropriateintheanalyst’sjudgment.GoldmanSachsconductsaglobalfull-service,integratedinvestmentbanking,investmentmanagement,andbrokeragebusiness.WehaveinvestmentbankingandotherbusinessrelationshipswithasubstantialpercentageofthecompaniescoveredbyGlobalInvestmentResearch.GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC,theUnitedStatesbrokerdealer,isamemberofSIPC(https://www.sipc.org).Oursalespeople,traders,andotherprofessionalsmayprovideoralorwrittenmarketcommentaryortradingstrategiestoourclientsandprincipaltradingdesksthatreﬂectopinionsthatarecontrarytotheopinionsexpressedinthisresearch.Ourassetmanagementarea,principaltradingdesksandinvestingbusinessesmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearch.Weandourafﬁliates,ofﬁcers,directors,andemployeeswillfromtimetotimehavelongorshortpositionsin,actasprincipalin,andbuyorsell,thesecuritiesorderivatives,ifany,referredtointhisresearch,unlessotherwiseprohibitedbyregulationorGoldmanSachspolicy.TheviewsattributedtothirdpartypresentersatGoldmanSachsarrangedconferences,includingindividualsfromotherpartsofGoldmanSachs,donotnecessarilyreﬂectthoseofGlobalInvestmentResearchandarenotanofﬁcialviewofGoldmanSachs.Anythirdpartyreferencedherein,includinganysalespeople,tradersandotherprofessionalsormembersoftheirhousehold,mayhavepositionsintheproductsmentionedthatareinconsistentwiththeviewsexpressedbyanalystsnamedinthisreport.Thisresearchisfocusedoninvestmentthemesacrossmarkets,industriesandsectors.Itdoesnotattempttodistinguishbetweentheprospectsorperformanceof,orprovideanalysisof,individualcompanieswithinanyindustryorsectorwedescribe.Anytradingrecommendationinthisresearchrelatingtoanequityorcreditsecurityorsecuritieswithinanindustryorsectorisreﬂectiveoftheinvestmentthemebeingdiscussedandisnotarecommendationofanysuchsecurityinisolation.Thisresearchisnotanoffertosellorthesolicitationofanoffertobuyanysecurityinanyjurisdictionwheresuchanofferorsolicitationwouldbeillegal.Itdoesnotconstituteapersonalrecommendationortakeintoaccounttheparticularinvestmentobjectives,ﬁnancialsituations,orneedsofindividualclients.Clientsshouldconsiderwhetheranyadviceorrecommendationinthisresearchissuitablefortheirparticularcircumstancesand,ifappropriate,seekprofessionaladvice,includingtaxadvice.Thepriceandvalueofinvestmentsreferredtointhisresearchandtheincomefromthemmayﬂuctuate.Pastperformanceisnotaguidetofutureperformance,futurereturnsarenotguaranteed,andalossoforiginalcapitalmayoccur.Fluctuationsinexchangeratescouldhaveadverseeffectsonthevalueorpriceof,orincomederivedfrom,certaininvestments.19October202311GoldmanSachsAsiaEconomicsAnalystCertaintransactions,includingthoseinvolvingfutures,options,andotherderivatives,giverisetosubstantialriskandarenotsuitableforallinvestors.InvestorsshouldreviewcurrentoptionsandfuturesdisclosuredocumentswhichareavailablefromGoldmanSachssalesrepresentativesorathttps://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jspandhttps://www.ﬁadocumentation.org/ﬁa/regulatory-disclosures_1/ﬁa-uniform-futures-and-options-on-futures-risk-disclosures-booklet-pdf-version-2018.Transactioncostsmaybesigniﬁcantinoptionstrategiescallingformultiplepurchaseandsalesofoptionssuchasspreads.Supportingdocumentationwillbesupplieduponrequest.DifferingLevelsofServiceprovidedbyGlobalInvestmentResearch:ThelevelandtypesofservicesprovidedtoyoubyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchmayvaryascomparedtothatprovidedtointernalandotherexternalclientsofGS,dependingonvariousfactorsincludingyourindividualpreferencesastothefrequencyandmannerofreceivingcommunication,yourriskproﬁleandinvestmentfocusandperspective(e.g.,marketwide,sectorspeciﬁc,longterm,shortterm),thesizeandscopeofyouroverallclientrelationshipwithGS,andlegalandregulatoryconstraints.Asanexample,certainclientsmayrequesttoreceivenotiﬁcationswhenresearchonspeciﬁcsecuritiesispublished,andcertainclientsmayrequestthatspeciﬁcdataunderlyinganalysts’fundamentalanalysisavailableonourinternalclientwebsitesbedeliveredtothemelectronicallythroughdatafeedsorotherwise.Nochangetoananalyst’sfundamentalresearchviews(e.g.,ratings,pricetargets,ormaterialchangestoearningsestimatesforequitysecurities),willbecommunicatedtoanyclientpriortoinclusionofsuchinformationinaresearchreportbroadlydisseminatedthroughelectronicpublicationtoourinternalclientwebsitesorthroughothermeans,asnecessary,toallclientswhoareentitledtoreceivesuchreports.Allresearchreportsaredisseminatedandavailabletoallclientssimultaneouslythroughelectronicpublicationtoourinternalclientwebsites.Notallresearchcontentisredistributedtoourclientsoravailabletothird-partyaggregators,norisGoldmanSachsresponsiblefortheredistributionofourresearchbythirdpartyaggregators.Forresearch,modelsorotherdatarelatedtooneormoresecurities,marketsorassetclasses(includingrelatedservices)thatmaybeavailabletoyou,pleasecontactyourGSrepresentativeorgotohttps://research.gs.com.Disclosureinformationisalsoavailableathttps://www.gs.com/research/hedge.htmlorfromResearchCompliance,200WestStreet,NewYork,NY10282.©2023GoldmanSachs.Nopartofthismaterialmaybe(i)copied,photocopiedorduplicatedinanyformbyanymeansor(ii)redistributedwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.a3194d4bc6d047f488bef73494dfc72619October202312

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