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CHILDREN DISPLACED

IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

preparing for a future already underway

CHILDREN

DISPLACED

IN A CHANGING

CLIMATE

Acknowledgements

This United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) publication was

developed jointly by UNICEF’s Programme Division; Division

of Data and Analytics, Planning and Monitoring; and Division of

Global Communication and Advocacy, in partnership with Internal

Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) and with support from

the Patrick J. McGovern Foundation.

Overall leadership and guidance: Verena Knaus, Danzhen You

Conceptualization, project management and narrative

development: Laura Healy

Data analysis and research: Jan Beise, Clémence Leduc, Sylvain

Ponserre

Production support: Ilaria Lanzoni

Reporting: Annabelle Bodmer-Roy, Tess Ingram

Fact-checking: Yasmine Hage

Copy-editing: Naomi Lindt, Ross Stewart

Design and data visualizations: Blossom.it

Special thanks to IDMC for its partnership and collaboration,

especially Alexandra Bilak, Christelle Cazabat, María Teresa

Miranda Espinosa and Sylvain Ponserre.

Thank you to the Patrick J. McGovern Foundation for its

contributions and support, especially Sarah Grady, Nikita Japra,

Claudia Juech, Ben Mann, Alissa Orlowsky, Frank Ortiz, Ananthan

(A.B.) Srinivasan and Chelsey Walden-Schreiner.

This report beneted from valuable contributions from many

colleagues. Particular thanks go to Sanjay Wijesekera, Director of

the Programme Division; Genevieve Boutin, Deputy Director of

the Programme Division; Vidhya Ganesh, Director of the Division

of Data, Analytics, Planning and Monitoring (DAPM); João Pedro

Azevedo, Chief Statistician and Deputy Director of DAPM; Mark

Hereward, Chief Data Ocer and Associate Director of DAPM;

Naysan Sahba, Director of Division of the Global Communication

and Advocacy; Paloma Escudero, Senior Advisor on Advocacy,

Climate Change and Gautam Narasimhan, Global Lead on Climate,

Energy, Environment and Disaster Risk Reduction.

Many colleagues across UNICEF provided critical inputs,

including: David Anthony, Marta Arias, Annabelle Bodmer-

Roy, Jan Burdziej, Cristina Colon, Larissa Demel, Ndeye

Marie Diop, Martin Eklund, Nicole Ethier, Tsedeye Girma, Tess

Ingram, Josiah Kaplan, Nupur Kukrety, Patrick Laurent, Hani

Mansourian, Farai Maxwell Marumbwa, Jason Miks, Bo Viktor

Nylund, Omar Robles, Jeremy Sprigge, Jen Stephens, Ramya

Subrahmanian, Lucy Szaboova, Ingrid Sanchez Tapia, Anne

Marie Turmine, Amy Wickham, Vanessa Anne Wyeth, Kevin

Wyjad and colleagues in regional oces, country oces and

national committees.

Thanks also to the following partners for their support: Yoma,

Goodwall, Robert Bosch Stiftung, the United Nations Network

on Migration, the Oce of the Special Advisor on Solutions for

Internal Displacement, the Global Centre for Climate Mobility and

others who shared their insights and solutions.

Special thanks go to the Migration Youth and Children Platform

of the Major Group for Children and Youth, YOUNGO, Resilient

40 Africa and the many young people who participated in the

Goodwall Climate Mobility Challenge and Africa Climate Mobility

Initiative Youth Forum.

CHILDREN

DISPLACED

IN A CHANGING

CLIMATE

Contents

01. The faces of child displacement 6

02. Mapping disaster-related

displacements of children 11

03. The hazards 15

04. Analysing future risk 39

05. Taking action 49

Annex: Key terms and concepts 57

Endnotes 59

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CHILDRENDISPLACEDINACHANGINGCLIMATEpreparingforafuturealreadyunderwayCHILDRENAcknowledgementsDISPLACEDINACHANGINGThisUnitedNationsChildren’sFund(UNICEF)publicationwasofData,Analytics,PlanningandMonitoring(DAPM);JoãoPedroCLIMATEdevelopedjointlybyUNICEF’sProgrammeDivision;DivisionAzevedo,ChiefStatisticianandDeputyDirectorofDAPM;MarkofDataandAnalytics,PlanningandMonitoring;andDivisionofHereward,ChiefDataOfficerandAssociateDirectorofDAPM;2GlobalCommunicationandAdvocacy,inpartnershipwithInternalNaysanSahba,DirectorofDivisionoftheGlobalCommunicationDisplacementMonitoringCentre(IDMC)andwithsupportfromandAdvocacy;PalomaEscudero,SeniorAdvisoronAdvocacy,thePatrickJ.McGovernFoundation.ClimateChangeandGautamNarasimhan,GlobalLeadonClimate,Energy,EnvironmentandDisasterRiskReduction.Overallleadershipandguidance:VerenaKnaus,DanzhenYouConceptualization,projectmanagementandnarrativeManycolleaguesacrossUNICEFprovidedcriticalinputs,development:LauraHealyincluding:DavidAnthony,MartaArias,AnnabelleBodmer-Dataanalysisandresearch:JanBeise,ClémenceLeduc,SylvainRoy,JanBurdziej,CristinaColon,LarissaDemel,NdeyePonserreMarieDiop,MartinEklund,NicoleEthier,TsedeyeGirma,TessProductionsupport:IlariaLanzoniIngram,JosiahKaplan,NupurKukrety,PatrickLaurent,HaniReporting:AnnabelleBodmer-Roy,TessIngramMansourian,FaraiMaxwellMarumbwa,JasonMiks,BoViktorFact-checking:YasmineHageNylund,OmarRobles,JeremySprigge,JenStephens,RamyaCopy-editing:NaomiLindt,RossStewartSubrahmanian,LucySzaboova,IngridSanchezTapia,AnneDesignanddatavisualizations:Blossom.itMarieTurmine,AmyWickham,VanessaAnneWyeth,KevinWyjadandcolleaguesinregionaloffices,countryofficesandSpecialthankstoIDMCforitspartnershipandcollaboration,nationalcommittees.especiallyAlexandraBilak,ChristelleCazabat,MaríaTeresaMirandaEspinosaandSylvainPonserre.Thanksalsotothefollowingpartnersfortheirsupport:Yoma,Goodwall,RobertBoschStiftung,theUnitedNationsNetworkThankyoutothePatrickJ.McGovernFoundationforitsonMigration,theOfficeoftheSpecialAdvisoronSolutionsforcontributionsandsupport,especiallySarahGrady,NikitaJapra,InternalDisplacement,theGlobalCentreforClimateMobilityandClaudiaJuech,BenMann,AlissaOrlowsky,FrankOrtiz,Ananthanotherswhosharedtheirinsightsandsolutions.(A.B.)SrinivasanandChelseyWalden-Schreiner.SpecialthanksgototheMigrationYouthandChildrenPlatformThisreportbenefitedfromvaluablecontributionsfrommanyoftheMajorGroupforChildrenandYouth,YOUNGO,Resilientcolleagues.ParticularthanksgotoSanjayWijesekera,Directorof40AfricaandthemanyyoungpeoplewhoparticipatedinthetheProgrammeDivision;GenevieveBoutin,DeputyDirectorofGoodwallClimateMobilityChallengeandAfricaClimateMobilitytheProgrammeDivision;VidhyaGanesh,DirectoroftheDivisionInitiativeYouthForum.CHILDRENContentsDISPLACEDINACHANGING01.Thefacesofchilddisplacement6CLIMATE02.Mappingdisaster-related3displacementsofchildren1103.Thehazards1504.Analysingfuturerisk3905.Takingaction49Annex:Keytermsandconcepts57Endnotes59CHILDRENThelinkbetweenclimatechangeanddisplacementiscomplex.YetitisclearerDISPLACEDthaneverthattheclimateisshiftingpatternsofdisplacement.1AlthoughINACHANGINGweatherevents,suchasfloodsandstorms,arenaturalphenomenaandasingleCLIMATEeventcannotbedirectlyattributedtoclimatechange,thereiswidespreadconsensusthathuman-inducedclimatechangeisaffectingthefrequency,4intensity,geographicrange,duration,andtimingofextremeweatherevents.Therefore,noweatherisentirely‘natural’anymore,butratheroccursinthecontextofachangingclimate.Large-scaledisasters,whichinthepast,occurredonlyoccasionally,arenowmorefrequent.Infact,witheveryadditionalonedegreeCelsiusofwarming,theglobalrisksofdisplacementfromfloodingareprojectedtorisebyapproximately50percent.2Millionsofchildrenarealreadybeingdrivenfromtheirhomesbyweather-relatedevents,exacerbatedbyclimatechange.Decisionstomovecanbeforcedandabruptinthefaceofdisaster,ortheresultofpre-emptiveevacuation–wherelivesmaybesaved,butmanychildrenstillfacethechallengesthatcomewithbeinguprootedfromtheirhomes.Inthecontextofslow-onsetclimateprocesses,displacementcanbedrivenbyaninterplayofsocio-economic,political,andclimate-relatedfactors.Decisionstomoveoftenoccurinacontextofconstrainedlifechoicesanderodinglivelihoods,wherechildrenandyoungpeoplearetrappedbetweenaspirationsandhopes,adutyofcaretotheirfamiliesandcommunities,andpressurestoleavehome.Displacement–whethershort-livedorprotracted–canmultiplyclimate-relatedrisksforchildrenandtheirfamilies.Intheaftermathofadisaster,childrenmaybecomeseparatedfromtheirparentsorcaregivers,amplifyingtherisksofexploitation,childtrafficking,andabuse.Displacementcandisruptaccesstoeducationandhealthcare,exposingchildrentomalnutrition,disease,andinadequateimmunization.Furthermoreovercrowdedandunder-resourcedevacuationsitesmaybelocatedinclimate-vulnerableareas.CHILDRENYettodate,childrendisplacedbyweather-relatedeventshavebeenDISPLACEDstatisticallyinvisible.ExistingdisplacementdataarerarelydisaggregatedINACHANGINGbyage,andincontextswhereextremeweathereventscollidewithrapidCLIMATEurbanization,fragilityandconflict,childrenonthemoveareevenmorelikelytoslipthroughthecracksunnoticed.Thelackofdatahamperseffortstoidentify5childrenmostatrisktohelpthemrecover,thrive,andbuildresilienceagainstfutureclimate-relatedchallenges.Toshinealightonthegrowingnumberofchildrendisplacedbyweather-relatedevents,whicharegrowinginintensityandfrequency,andidentifythosemostatrisk,theUnitedNationsChildren’sFund(UNICEF)andtheInternalDisplacementMonitoringCentre(IDMC),inpartnershipwiththePatrickJ.McGovernFoundation,analysedpastchilddisplacementslinkedtoweather-relateddisastersfrom2016–2021and–basedonIDMC’sriskmodel–estimatedtheriskofchilddisplacementinfuture.Thereportanalysesthemostcommonweather-relatedhazardsthatleadtothelargestnumberofdisplacements:floods,storms,droughtsandwildfires.Together,thesehazardsaccountforover99percentofallweather-relateddisplacementsrecordedbyIDMCsince2016,whilehazardssuchasextremeheat,erosionandlandslides,makeuptherest.3Duetolackofavailabledata,theanalysisdoesnotassessthefullrangeofweather-relatedeventsthatcancontributetodisplacement–particularlyinrelationtoslower-onsetclimateprocesses.Therefore,thesefindingsrepresentconservativeestimates,andtheactualnumbersofclimate-relateddisplacementsofchildrenarelikelytobemuchhigher.Thesenewinsightscanhelpgovernments,UnitedNationsagencies,civilsociety,andaffectedcommunities,toidentifychildrenatriskofweather-relateddisplacement,maptheareasmostaffectedandmostimportantly,targeteffortsandresourcestothemostvulnerable,withtheaimofprotectingchildren’sfuturesfromtheimpactsofdisplacementastheclimatecontinuestochange.CHILDREN01.DISPLACEDThefacesofchildINACHANGINGdisplacementCLIMATEDistressingimagesofchildrenforcedtofleetheirhomes01.Thefacesofchildbecauseofacuteweather-relateddisasters,suchasfloods,displacementstormsandwildfires,arebecomingincreasinglycommonplace.InAugust2022,disastrousfloodscoverednearlyonethirdof02.MappingPakistan,causingbillionsofdollarsindamagetocrops,housesdisaster-relatedandotherbuildings,andseverelyaffectingthelivesof33milliondisplacementspeople,manyofwhomweredisplacedfromtheirhomes.4Theofchildrenconsequenceshavebeenespeciallyhorrificforchildren,manyofwhomhavebeenleftwithoutsafedrinkingwaterandareliving03.Thehazardsinunsanitaryconditions.Meanwhile,onanothercontinent,morethan280,000peoplewereaffectedbyfloodsinSudan.Families04.Analysingwereleftstrandedasalmost17,000housesweredestroyedandfutureriskanother44,000damaged.505.TakingactionBACKTO©UNICEF/UN0716324/YusufCONTENTS6CHILDRENAbdul’sDISPLACEDstoryINACHANGINGCLIMATE01.ThefacesofchildKhalidAbdulAzimisaneighth-gradepupilat“Iamgladwearebackinschool,buttheredisplacementWadAl-ShafieElementarySchoolinSudan.isadelayincompletingthecurriculum.ByTogetherwithhisfamily,AbdulAzimspentthistime,wewouldhavecompletedseveral02.Mappingseveralweekslivingintheopenafterhisvillageunits,butwehavebarelycoveredoneordisaster-relatedwasflooded,followingheavyrains.two,”saysAbdulAzim.7displacementsofchildren“WemovedourbelongingstothehighwayLikeAbdulAzim,childrenlivinginmanyotherwherewelivedforweeks.Wecouldonlypartsoftheworldarefeelingtheimpactsof03.Thehazardsaccessthevillageusingaboatformoreofthechangingclimate.ThoseinLatinAmericaourbelongings.ManyhousesweredamagedandtheCaribbeanareamongthemost04.Analysingincludingours,”saysAbdulAzim.vulnerableintheworldtobeingdrivenfromfuturerisktheirhomesbyacuteweather-relateddisasters.Notonlywashishomedestroyed,butAbdulFrom2014to2018,3.4millionpeoplewere05.TakingactionAzim’sschoolwasdamaged,too.About140,000internallydisplacedacrosstheCaribbeandueschool-agechildrenacrossSudanwereunabletoaseriesofcatastrophictropicalcyclones.toaccesstheirschoolsowingtothefloods.TheWhenstorms–suchashurricanesHarvey,Irma,effectsofthefloodingremainedvisibleinMariaandDorian–makelandfall,theycancauseschoolsacrossthecountryanddelayedthestartcatastrophicdamagetohomes,infrastructureoftheschoolyear.ThegatestoAbdulAzim’sandeconomiesandleavesomeareasvirtuallyschoolopenedinlateOctober,afewweeksuninhabitable.8aftertheoriginallyscheduledstartdate.6BACKTOCONTENTS©UNICEFSudan/20227CHILDRENJuana’sDISPLACEDstoryINACHANGINGCLIMATE01.ThefacesofchildIntheaftermathofhurricanesEtaandIota,nine-ofbiodiversity,oceanacidification,salinizationdisplacementyear-oldJuanaJenniferTzoywasdisplacedfromandsealevelrisearealreadydrivingpeoplefromherhomeinGuatemalawhenhertownwastheirhomesandwilllikelyhaveanincreasingly02.Mappingcompletelysubmergedinwater.Juanamustgreaterimpactinthefuture.11disaster-relatednowtravelbyboattovisitcommunitiesarounddisplacementsCampur,wheresheusedtolivewithherfamily.ForcommunitiesaffectedbythedroughtintheofchildrenApproximately310,000peoplewereforcedtoHornofAfrica,losingtheirlivestockandgrazingliveinsheltersacrossGuatemalafollowingtheareasmeansthatmovingmaynolongereven03.Thehazardshurricanes,whichdevastated387,960homesbeanoption.12Somaliaiswitnessingatwo-acrossthecountry.9yearhistoricdryspell–asituationnotseenin04.Analysingmorethan40years–andanexpectedfifthfailedfutureriskInfact,weather-relatedhazards–especiallyrainyseasonisprojectedtodisplacemanymorefloodsandstorms–accountformostfamilies,withfamineloomingonthehorizon.05.Takingactiondisplacementsrecorded,globally.10HoweverThisdevastatingdroughtreachedunprecedenteddisplacementresultingfromacuteandlarge-levelsin2022,with1millionpeopleregisteredBACKTOscaledisastersmaybeonlythetipoftheiceberg.asdisplacedwithinthecountry.13ThosewhoCONTENTSTheslow-onseteffectsofclimatechange,canstillmakeittofeedingstationsarethe‘luckysuchasdesertification,glacialretreat,increasingones’,whilethosetrappedbyimmobilitymaybe8temperatures,landandforestdegradation,lossthemostvulnerable.©UNICEF/UN0377672/Billy/AFP-ServicesCHILDRENKhadijoandDISPLACEDSabirin’sstoryINACHANGINGCLIMATE01.ThefacesofchildKhadijoMohamedisamotherandfarmerfrom“Wehopedforrainthenextyear,butitalsodisplacementDinsoorTownintheBayregionofSomalia.Shebecamedrought.Itbecamethreeconsecutivesitsoutsidehermakeshifttentontheoutskirtsdroughts.Whenitbecamethreeconsecutive02.MappingofMogadishurecountingthejourneyshehasdroughts,weboardedacarandleft.Wedisaster-relatedbeenforcedtotakeasherhomeregionteetersenteredthetown,”sherecounts.displacementsontheedgeoffamine.ofchildrenThejourneytoMogadishuwasbrutal.Theyhad“Wewerefarmersandusedtoliveanofoodforsevendaysandallherchildrenfell03.Thehazardscomfortablelifeinourhousebecausewesick.Heryoungest,two-year-oldSabirin,becameplantedmaize,beansandothercrops,andseverelymalnourished.04.Analysingweusedtohavecowsthatwegotmilkfromfutureriskbeforethedroughthit,”Khadijoexplains.Sabirinwasoneof44,000childrenadmittedfortreatmentforsevereacutemalnutrition05.TakingactionLikethousandsofotherfamiliesacrossSomalia,inAugust2022.TheexplodingnumberofKhadijohaswatchedcropsfail,livestockperishmalnutritioncasesmeansthat,currently,achildandthecommunity’swatersuppliesevaporate.isadmittedtoahealthfacilityforsevereacuteShefledtoMogadishuinsearchoffoodandmalnutritioneveryminute.14waterforherfouryoungestchildren.BACKTOCONTENTS©UNICEF/UN0716323/Yusuf9CHILDRENKhadijoandDISPLACEDSabirin’sstoryINACHANGINGCLIMATEIfunplannedandpoorlymanaged,large-scalelives.Thisshowsthatdisplacementisnotdisplacementeventsliketheonethatuprootednecessarilyanegativeoutcomeofdisasters,01.ThefacesofchildKhadijoandherfamilyriskaddingstresstoalreadybuttothecontrary,canhaveprotectivevalue.displacementfragileplacesandheighteningtensionsaroundThatsaid,forevacueeswhosehousesarelandandwaterresources.Furthermore,suddenseverelydamagedordestroyed,prolonged02.Mappingandlargepopulationshiftstowardslesshigh-displacementcanincreasetheirvulnerability.disaster-relatedriskareas,includingcitiesandurbanareas,canInrecentyears,wildfiresinAustralia,Greecedisplacementsundermineplanningeffortsandsocialcohesion.andtheUnitedStateshaveresultedinofchildrenunprecedentednumbersofevacuations.InHowever,apotentiallyworseoutcomeoccurs2020,CycloneAmphantriggeredcloseto503.ThehazardswhenchildrenandfamiliesarestrandedinplaceasmillionevacuationsacrossBangladesh,Bhutan,04.Analysingaresultofpoverty,age,disability,orlegalbarriers,IndiaandMyanmar.15leavingthemhighlyexposedandvulnerabletofutureriskincreasinglyhazardousclimaticconditions.AsAbdulAzim,Juana,andKhadijoandSabirin’s05.Takingactionstoriesillustrate,displacementcanhaveFordisplacedchildrensuchasSabirin,significantsocialandeconomicconsequencesBACKTOunexpected,high-riskdisplacementwithoutforchildren,theirhostcommunitiesandthoseCONTENTSearlywarningsystemscanresultinlossoflife,whobecometrappedinharm’sway.Theseinterruptedaccesstocriticalcareandservices,impactsvarybasedonresilienceandcapacity10andelevatedprotectionrisks.tocopeattheindividual,communityandnationallevels–aswellasthetypeandlengthHowever,manyofthedisplacementsrecordedofdisplacement.Withoutaccurateinformation,byIDMCaretheresultofgovernment-ledgovernmentsandcommunitiescannotevacuations.Insuchsituations,evacuationsadequatelyplanandpreparefororrespondtoareanemergencymechanismtomovedisasters,orensurethatevacuationplansarepeopleoutofharm’swayandcanhelpsavechild-sensitiveandwelldevised.CHILDREN02.DISPLACEDMappingINACHANGINGdisaster-relatedCLIMATEdisplacementsofchildren01.ThefacesofchilddisplacementHowmanychildrenhavebeendisplaced?02.MappingAlmost135millioninternaldisplacementslinkedtomorethandisaster-related8,000weather-relateddisplacementeventswererecordedbydisplacementsIDMCbetween2016and2021.Forthemostpart,thesedataofchildrenwerechildblind,withonlyaverysmallproportionofdataondisplacementsdisaggregatedbyageandsex.03.ThehazardsTobridgethisgap,thisresearchoverlayedtheseinternal04.Analysingdisplacementdatapointswiththelatestdemographicgriddedfutureriskpopulationdata,providinginsightsonwherethemostchildrenhavebeendisplaced–andaglimpseintotheexperienceof05.Takingactionchildrenonthemoveinclimatedisaster-affectedareas.BACKTO©UNICEF/UN0407051/FrancoCONTENTS11CHILDREN43.1Basedontheanalysis,therewere43.1millionimplementpre-emptiveevacuationsintimesofDISPLACEDinternaldisplacementsofchildrenlinkedtodisaster,which,whenmanagedproperly,canINACHANGINGmillioninternalweather-weather-relateddisastersoverthelastsixyearsbeeffectiveinsavinglives17andmitigatingtheCLIMATErelateddisplacements–theequivalenttoapproximately20,000childdamagecausedbydisplacement.ofchildrenoverthelastdisplacementsperday.01.ThefacesofchildsixyearsAsthedatadonotdistinguishbetweenpre-displacementAlmostall–95percent–ofrecordedchildemptiveevacuationanddisplacementin20,000displacementsweredrivenbyfloodsandresponsetodisaster,itisunclearhowmanyof02.Mappingstorms.Thesecomprised19.7millionchildthesechildrenwereinfactevacuees.Pre-emptivedisaster-relatedchilddisplacementsdisplacementsduetofloodsand21.2millionevacuationsaremorelikelytobeimplementeddisplacementsperdayduetostormsbetween2016and2021.(andrecorded)forfloodsandmajorstormssuchofchildrenascyclones,typhoonsandhurricanes–andin95%Wherewerechildrencountrieswitheffectiveearlywarning,disaster03.Thehazardsmostaffected?riskreduction(DRR)anddatasystemsinplace.04.AnalysingofrecordedchilddisplacementsduetoTheresearchfindingstelltwoverydifferentHowever,whenwelookatthegreatestnumberfutureriskweather-relatedeventsstories.Threecountriesdominatetheresultsofdisplacementsrelativetothesizeofthechild05.Takingactionweredrivenbyfloodsbasedonabsolutenumbers:thePhilippines,population,averydifferentpictureemerges.andstormsIndiaandChina,withacombinedtotalofalmostBACKTO23millionchilddisplacementsduetoweather-SouthSudanandSomaliaexperiencedCONTENTSrelatedeventsbetween2016and2021.Therewerethegreatestnumberofchilddisplacements9.7millionchilddisplacementsinthePhilippinesfromfloodsrelativetothesizeoftheirchild12alone,6.7millioninIndiaand6.4millioninChina.population,equivalenttoabout12percentinInadditiontotheirlocationsandgeographicSouthSudanand11percentinSomalia.Bothprofilesbeingpronetofloodsandstorms,thesecountriesimplementandrecordfarfewerpre-countries’sizesandpopulationsalsohelpexplainemptiveevacuations,suggestingthatchildrenthelargenumbersofdisplacements.livinginthesecountriesmaybeevenmorevulnerabletodisplacementrisk.SmallIslandWhilethePhilippines,IndiaandChinaareatDevelopingStatesandcountriesintheHornofhighriskofweather-relateddisasters–andAfricahavehadthegreatestproportionoftheirmaybecomeincreasinglysoastheimpactsofchildpopulationdisplaced.Dominica,Saintclimatechangeintensify16–allthreecountriesMartin(Frenchpart),SintMaarten(Dutchpart),theNorthernMarianaIslands,CubaandItisimportanttonotethatlivessavedbymovingoutofharm’swayarealsoregularlylostasaresultofchaoticmassevacuationsanddirelivingconditionsinevacuationcentresortemporaryshelters.Overcrowding,lackofprivacyandpoorhygienearejustsomeofthecommonlyencounteredchallengeschildreninevacuationcentresface.CHILDRENVanuaturecordedthemostchilddisplacementsDroughtconditionscanintensifydisputesoverDISPLACEDfromstormsrelativetothesizeoftheirchildscarceresources,reduceeconomicopportunitiesINACHANGINGpopulations.InDominica,thenumberofandstrainpublicinstitutionsandinfrastructure–CLIMATEdisplacementsofchildrenoverthelastsixandincountriesaffectedbyfragilityandconflict,yearswasequivalentto76percentofthechildandwithpoordatacollectionandmonitoring01.Thefacesofchildpopulation,whileinCuba,itwas31percent.capacities,displacementscanbeevenmoredisplacementSuchlargeproportionsofthechildpopulationdifficulttomeasure.18experiencingdisplacementhassignificant02.Mappingimplicationsforhowhealthcare,educationandFinally,theanalysisofdisplacementscausedbydisaster-relatedprotectionservicesforchildrenmustberun.wildfireillustratedthatweather-relateddisastersdisplacementsexacerbatedbythechangingclimateaffectofchildrenDroughtstriggeredmorethan1.3millionlow-andhigh-incomecountriesalike.Wildfiresinternaldisplacementsofchildrenacross15triggered810,000newchilddisplacements,with03.Thehazardscountriesbetween2016and2021.Morethanmorethanathirdoccurringin2020alone.The04.Analysinghalf–730,000–wererecordedinSomalia,UnitedStates,CanadaandIsrael,whichallwithanother340,000inEthiopiaand190,000haverobustearlywarningandDRRsystems,asfutureriskinAfghanistan.Unlikeinthefloodsandstormswellasstrongdatasystemsinplace,recorded05.Takingactionanalysis,thedataondroughtsshowmostlythemostchilddisplacements,manyofwhichactualdisplacementsasaconsequenceofthewerepre-emptiveevacuations.BACKTOdisaster.Pre-emptiveevacuationsindroughtCONTENTScontextsareextremelyrare,soitislikelytheLookingatpastdisplacementtrends,severalmajorityofthesedisplacementsoccurreddifferentcountrytypologiescomeintofocus:13withoutearlywarningsandeffortstominimizeSomecountriesareathighriskofweather-relatedtheimpactsofdisplacement.disasters–whichmaygrowinfrequencyandintensityastheclimatechanges–butaretakingThisanalysiscomeswithacaveat–slow-measurestominimizedisplacementrisk.Others,onsetdisplacementduetoeventslikewheredisasterriskishigh,butpre-emptivedroughtsislikelyradicallyunderreported.evacuationsarefewandfarbetween,areThereiscurrentlynoglobalestimationofwherechildrenandtheircommunitiesmaybetheleveloffuturedisplacementassociatedmostvulnerable.Itisinthesecountries,wherewithslow-onsetdisastersandthedataforriskmitigation,adaptationandpreparedness–historicaldisplacementsrelatedtodroughtsareincludingembracingpre-emptiveevacuationsandincomplete.Further,displacementlinkedtoslow-otherclimatemobilityoptionstosavelivesandonsetdisastersisoftendrivenbyacombinationminimizeanydisruptiontochildren’saccesstoofaspirationsandsocio-economicfactors.essentialservices–willbemostcritical.CHILDRENESTIMATEDNUMBEROFDISPLACEMENTSDISPLACEDBYHAZARDTYPEBETWEEN2016AND2021INACHANGINGCLIMATESTORMS69.7MILLION21.2MILLION01.ThefacesofchildFLOODS58.4MILLION19.7MILLIONdisplacementHAZARDTYPE2.6MILLION1.3MILLION02.MappingDROUGHTSdisaster-relateddisplacementsWILDFIRES3.4MILLION0.8MILLIONofchildrenTOTAL134.1MILLION43.1MILLION03.Thehazards04.AnalysingTOTALDISPLACEMENTSCHILDDISPLACEMENTSfutureriskNote:Totaldisplacementnumbers(allages)asreportedbyIDMCinitsGlobalInternalDisplacementDatabase.Childdisplacementnumbersestimatedbasedonlocationofdisasters(IDMCdatabase)andthecorrespondingproportion05.Takingactionofchildreninthepopulationforthatlocation(WorldPop).Thetotalsmaynotexactlymatchthesumofthevaluesshownowingtorounding.BACKTOCONTENTS14CHILDREN03.DISPLACEDThehazardsINACHANGINGCLIMATEThefollowingsectioncomprisesmapsandanalysesofthefourweather-relatedhazardsthatcausedthegreatestnumberof01.Thefacesofchildchilddisplacements–morethan43million–between2016anddisplacement2021:floods,storms,droughtsandwildfires.Themapsshowthegeographicdistributionofthedisastersandthescaleofthe02.Mappingassociatedchilddisplacements.Eachdotrepresentsonedisasterdisaster-relatedeventandthesizeofthedotindicatestheestimatednumberofdisplacementschilddisplacements.ofchildrenAsthemapsindicate,someareasweremoreproneto03.Thehazardsdisplacementsthanothers,owingtothefrequencyandseverityofhazardeventsandthenumberofchildrenexposedtothehazards.04.AnalysingTheseso-called‘hotspots’wereidentifiedbyaspatialanalysisoffutureriskthedistribution(i.e.,closeness)ofhazardeventsandthenumberofdisplacementstriggered.Identifyinghotspotstohelpguide05.Takingactiondisasterriskreduction(DRR)andresilience-buildingeffortstoprotectchildrenandtheircommunitiesfromdisplacementisakeyBACKTOstrategytopreparefortheimpactsofclimatechange.CONTENTSAhotspotanalysisisaspatialanalysisandmappingtechniquethatidentifiesclustersofspatialphenomena15–inthiscase,thedistributionandscaleofdisplacementeventsrecordedin2016–2021.Forthepurposeofthisstudy,acombinationofKerneldensityestimationandtheGetisGimeasurewasusedforthevisualandstatisticalidentificationofhotspots(includingp-levels).Fordetails,seethedocumentationfortheHotspotAnalysisPluginforQGIS.©UNICEF/UNI361788/SobeckiVIIPhotoCHILDRENFloodsDISPLACEDINACHANGINGFlood:AgeneraltermfortheoverﬂowofwaterfromastreamchannelontonormallydrylandonaCLIMATEﬂoodplain(riverineﬂooding);higher-than-normalwaterlevelsalongthecoast,inlakesorinreservoirs(coastalflooding);orthepondingofwateratornearthepointwheretherainfell(ﬂashﬂoods).19Fig.1:Childdisplacementstriggeredbyfloods(2016–2021)01.ThefacesofchildFloodeventsaccordingtotheTOTALCHILDDISPLACEMENTS:displacementnumberofchilddisplacements19.7MILLION02.Mapping1–1,000disaster-related1,000–100,000displacements100,000–1,000,000ofchildrenHotspots03.ThehazardsNote:ThismapdoesnotreflectapositionbyUNICEFonthelegalstatusofanycountryorterritoryorthedelimitationofanyfrontiers.ThedottedlinerepresentsapproximatelytheLineofControlinJammuandKashmiragreeduponbyIndiaand04.AnalysingPakistan.ThefinalstatusofJammuandKashmirhasnotyetbeenagreeduponbytheparties.ThefinalboundarybetweentheSudanandSouthSudanhasnotyetbeendetermined.ThefinalstatusoftheAbyeiareahasnotyetbeendetermined.futurerisk05.TakingactionBACKTOCONTENTS16CHILDRENFloodstriggeredanestimated19.7millionofabsolutenumbers.MostdisplacementsDISPLACEDdisplacementsofchildrenacrosstherecordedintheregionoccurredduringtheINACHANGINGglobebetween2016and2021.Hotspotssummermonsoonseason,whichrunsfromCLIMATEaremostlylocatedinSouthernandEasternApriltoSeptember.20However,manyoftheAsia,withIndia(3.9million),China(3.7displacementsrecordedwerepre-emptivemillion)andthePhilippines(1.3million)evacuations,wherechildrenweremovedoutbeingthemostaffectedcountriesintermsofharm’swaybeforethedisasterstruck.Fig.2:Top10countrieswiththemostchilddisplacementstriggeredbyfloods(2016–2021)01.ThefacesofchildNote:ThismapdoesnotreflectapositionbyUNICEFonthelegalstatusofanycountryorterritoryorthedelimitationofanyfrontiers.ThedottedlinerepresentsapproximatelytheLineofControlinJammuandKashmiragreeduponbyIndiaanddisplacementPakistan.ThefinalstatusofJammuandKashmirhasnotyetbeenagreeduponbytheparties.ThefinalboundarybetweentheSudanandSouthSudanhasnotyetbeendetermined.ThefinalstatusoftheAbyeiareahasnotyetbeendetermined.02.Mappingdisaster-relateddisplacementsofchildren03.Thehazards04.Analysingfuturerisk05.TakingactionBACKTOCONTENTS17CHILDRENBasedonthenumberofchilddisplacementspercentofthechildpopulation,respectively.21DISPLACEDrelativetothetotalchildpopulation,countriesInadditiontohavinghighdisplacementfiguresINACHANGINGinEastAfricahavebeenmostseverelyaffectedintheanalysis,thedisplacementsrecordedinCLIMATEbyfloods.Inrelativeterms,SouthSudanandSouthSudanandSomaliaarelesslikelytobepre-Somaliarecordedthemostchilddisplacementsemptiveevacuationsthanothercountriessuchasduetofloods,equatingto11.8percentand10.7China,IndiaandthePhilippines.22Fig.3:Top10countrieswiththemostchilddisplacementstriggeredbyfloodsrelativetochildpopulation(2016–2021)01.ThefacesofchildNote:ThismapdoesnotreflectapositionbyUNICEFonthelegalstatusofanycountryorterritoryorthedelimitationofanyfrontiers.ThedottedlinerepresentsapproximatelytheLineofControlinJammuandKashmiragreeduponbyIndiaanddisplacementPakistan.ThefinalstatusofJammuandKashmirhasnotyetbeenagreeduponbytheparties.ThefinalboundarybetweentheSudanandSouthSudanhasnotyetbeendetermined.ThefinalstatusoftheAbyeiareahasnotyetbeendetermined.02.Mappingdisaster-relateddisplacementsofchildren03.Thehazards04.Analysingfuturerisk05.TakingactionBACKTOCONTENTS18CHILDRENNumbersarehigherincountriessuchasthegoodearly-warningsystems,andtrackingandDISPLACEDPhilippineswherereportingisbetterandtheremonitoring.ThisresultsinfarhighercaseloadsINACHANGINGaremorepre-emptiveevacuationsduetobutpotentiallylessvulnerablepopulations.CLIMATEESTIMATEDNUMBEROFCHILDDISPLACEMENTSDUETO01.ThefacesofchildFLOODSBETWEEN2016AND2021displacementGlobalTOP10inabsolutenumbersTOP10relativetothechildpopulationa02.Mappingdisaster-related19.7millionchildIndia:3.9millionSouthSudan:11.8%(660,000)displacementsdisplacementsChina:3.7millionSomalia:10.7%(990,000)ofchildrenduetofloodsPhilippines:1.3millionPhilippines:3.2%(1.3million)Somalia:990,000Niger:3.1%(430,000)03.ThehazardsBangladesh:950,000Congo:3.1%(87,000)04.AnalysingIndonesia:930,000Myanmar:2.7%(430,000)Ethiopia:920,000Sudan:2.6%(570,000)futureriskSouthSudan:660,000CentralAfricanRepublic:2.4%(74,000)05.TakingactionNigeria:650,000SriLanka:1.8%(110,000)Sudan:570,000Nepal:1.8%(190,000)BACKTOCONTENTSaRelativenumbersaregivenheretoprovideanotionofthemagnitudeofthedisplacementriskforachildbetween2016and2021.Thenumbersdonotdescribetheshareofchildrendisplacedduringthisperiodasthesamechildmayhavebeendisplacedseveraltimesandthuscontributedmorethanoncetothenumberofdisplacements.19CHILDRENStormsDISPLACEDINACHANGINGStorm:Atropicalstormoriginatesovertropicalorsubtropicalwaters.Itischaracterizedbyawarm-CLIMATEcore,non-frontalsynoptic-scalecyclonewithalow-pressurecentre,spiralrainbandsandstrongwinds.Dependingontheirlocation,tropicalcyclonesarereferredtoashurricanes(westernAtlantic,northeastPaciﬁc),typhoons(westernPaciﬁc)orcyclones(SouthPaciﬁcandIndianOcean).23Alsoincludedherearetornadoes,blizzards(winterstorms),sand/duststormsandstormsurges.Fig.4:Childdisplacementstriggeredbystorms(2016–2021)01.ThefacesofchildStormeventsaccordingtotheTOTALCHILDDISPLACEMENTS:displacementnumberofchilddisplacements21.2MILLION02.Mapping1–1,000disaster-related1,000–100,000displacements100,000–1,000,000ofchildrenHotspots03.ThehazardsNote:ThismapdoesnotreflectapositionbyUNICEFonthelegalstatusofanycountryorterritoryorthedelimitationofanyfrontiers.ThedottedlinerepresentsapproximatelytheLineofControlinJammuandKashmiragreeduponbyIndiaand04.AnalysingPakistan.ThefinalstatusofJammuandKashmirhasnotyetbeenagreeduponbytheparties.ThefinalboundarybetweentheSudanandSouthSudanhasnotyetbeendetermined.ThefinalstatusoftheAbyeiareahasnotyetbeendetermined.futurerisk05.TakingactionBACKTOCONTENTS20CHILDRENStormscausedanestimated21millionnewInDominica,thenumberofdisplacementsDISPLACEDdisplacementsofchildrenbetween2016wereequivalentto76percentofchildren.INACHANGINGand2021.Inabsolutenumbers,themajorityOtherinstancesofhighproportionsofchildCLIMATEwererecordedinthePhilippines(8.3million),displacementinclude37percentinSintIndia(2.8million)andChina(2.6million),Maarten(Dutchpart)and31percentinwhileSmallIslandDevelopingStatesandCuba.InVanuatu,atotalof36,000childrenotherareasintheCaribbeanandPacificwereweredisplaced–theequivalentof25percentthemostaffectedcountriesinrelativeterms.oftheisland’schildpopulation.Fig.5:Top10countrieswiththemostchilddisplacementstriggeredbystorms(2016–2021)01.ThefacesofchildNote:ThismapdoesnotreflectapositionbyUNICEFonthelegalstatusofanycountryorterritoryorthedelimitationofanyfrontiers.ThedottedlinerepresentsapproximatelytheLineofControlinJammuandKashmiragreeduponbyIndiaanddisplacementPakistan.ThefinalstatusofJammuandKashmirhasnotyetbeenagreeduponbytheparties.ThefinalboundarybetweentheSudanandSouthSudanhasnotyetbeendetermined.ThefinalstatusoftheAbyeiareahasnotyetbeendetermined.02.Mappingdisaster-relateddisplacementsofchildren03.Thehazards04.Analysingfuturerisk05.TakingactionBACKTOCONTENTS21CHILDRENFig.6:Top10countriesandareaswiththemostchilddisplacementstriggeredbystormsinrelativeterms(2016–2021)DISPLACEDINACHANGINGCLIMATE01.ThefacesofchildNote:ThismapdoesnotreflectapositionbyUNICEFStormsarecommonacrossEastAsiaandtheThroughout2020,typhoonswereaggravateddisplacementonthelegalstatusofanycountryorterritoryorthePacific,affectinghighlypopulatedareaswherebyLaNiña,whichbroughtwetterthandelimitationofanyfrontiers.Thedottedlinerepresentscommunitiesareforcedtoflee,eitheraheadofnormalconditionstotheregion.TheLaNiña02.MappingapproximatelytheLineofControlinJammuandthestormorasaresultofitsimpacts.Cyclonephenomenonisanaturallyoccurringdriverofthedisaster-relatedKashmiragreeduponbyIndiaandPakistan.TheAmphanledto1.5millionchilddisplacementsearth’sclimatesystem,butnowoccursagainstdisplacementsfinalstatusofJammuandKashmirhasnotyetacrossIndia,Bangladesh,Myanmarandabackgroundofhuman-inducedclimatechange,ofchildrenbeenagreeduponbytheparties.ThefinalboundaryBhutaninMay2020,whereasTyphoonRai,whichmakesextremeweathereventsmorebetweentheSudanandSouthSudanhasnotyetalsoknownasOdette,caused1.5millionchildfrequentandintense.24,25,2603.Thehazardsbeendetermined.ThefinalstatusoftheAbyeiareadisplacementsacrossthePhilippines,Palauand04.Analysinghasnotyetbeendetermined.VietNaminDecember2021.Wherestormsandtyphoonscoincidewithperiodsofseasonalflooding,childrenfacethegreatestriskfutureriskofweather-relateddisplacement.05.TakingactionBACKTOCONTENTS22CHILDRENUnderstandinghowseasonalphenomenaand80,000displacementsinVanuatuin2020,DISPLACEDtheimpactsofclimateareaffectingweather-including34,000childdisplacements,amountingINACHANGINGrelateddisplacementhotspotsiskeytotonearlyaquarterofthepopulation.CycloneCLIMATEinformingeffortstoprevent,prepareforandWinstonstruckFijiin2016,leadingto21,000respondtoweather-relateddisplacement.27childdisplacements.Highemissionsclimate01.ThefacesofchildscenariossuggestthatdevastatingrarefloodingdisplacementCountrieswithsimilargeographiesandclimateeventsinVanuatuandFiji,whichcurrentlyoccurriskscanhaveverydifferentdisplacementanaverageofonceevery250years,arelikelyto02.Mappingoutcomes.Infact,somechilddisplacementsmayoccurevery5-25yearsbytheendofthecentury.disaster-relatedbeduetoalackofearlywarningandDRRsystems28Althoughbothcountriesarerelativelysmall,displacementsinareasathighriskofweather-relateddisasters.theseislandsaretakingthethreatofclimateofchildrenchangeseriously,withrelocationplansforCountriessuchasthePhilippinesandcommunitiesmostatriskandrobustmonitoring03.ThehazardsBangladeshareconsideredhighriskandareandearly-warningsystems.2904.Analysinggreatlyaffectedbyweather-relateddisplacementowingtotheirgeographyandseasonalandCubaisregularlystruckbyhurricanes,withfutureriskregularlyrecurringhazards.However,theseHurricaneIrmain2016displacing310,00005.Takingactioncountriesarealsotakingstepstomanagechildren,butitissimilarlytakingstepstopreparedisasterriskswithearlywarningsystemsandandbuildcommunityresilience.AllCubansareBACKTODRRplans.Pre-emptiveevacuationsareusedtaughtwhattodowhenahurricaneapproachesCONTENTStosuccessfullyreducethenumberofinjuriesfromanearlyage.30Disasterpreparedness,andliveslostwhenadisasterstrikes.Thesepreventionandresponsearepartofthe23evacuationsareoftenreportedasdisplacements;nationalcurriculumandpeopleofallagestaketherefore,theycontributetohigheroverallpartindrills,simulationexercisesandotherdisplacementfiguresforsomecountries.training.Theisland’scivildefensesystemandmeteorologicalinstitutearepillarsofitsdisasterOthercountriesarebecominghighriskowingriskmanagementsystemandeveryindividualistoacceleratingclimatechange,whichiscausingexpectedtohelptheircommunitytoweatherthethelikelihoodofriskssuchasextremeweatherstorm.Around1.7millionpeoplewereevacuatedtoincrease.ThePacificislandsofVanuatuandbeforeandduringIrma,keepingthemsafeFijiwillbeincreasinglyaffectedbythemorefromthedestructioncausedbythehurricane.gradualeffectsofclimatechangesuchassea-Thisdemonstratedthat,whenemployedasalevelelevation,erosionandmorefrequentresiliencemeasure,pre-emptiveevacuationscanextremeevents.CycloneHaroldcausedaroundhavepositiveoutcomes.31CHILDRENConversely,somecountriesareatamoderateexperienced.InthefaceofstormsofsuchDISPLACEDorhighriskofclimatehazardsbutlackmagnitude,localearlywarningsystemsprovedINACHANGINGsufficientcopingcapacity,whichmakesineffectiveandveryfewpeoplewereevacuatedCLIMATEcommunitiesandchildrenparticularlyfromhigh-riskareasbeforethecyclonesmadevulnerable.Inadditiontoextremeweatherlandfall.Mostpeoplemovedduringorafterthe01.Thefacesofchildevents,Haitiissimultaneouslycopingwithstorms,oncetheirhomeshadbeendamageddisplacementviolence,povertyandrepeateddisasters,ordestroyed.33Poorcommunitieswereincludingearthquakes.Disasterstendtocausedisproportionatelyaffectedandhadlittlecapacity02.MappingmoredamageinHaitithanintheneighbouringtorecoverandrebuild.34SinceIdaiandKenneth,disaster-relatedDominicanRepublicbecausetherehasbeenimportantimprovementshavebeenmadetodisplacementslessinvestmentinriskmitigationinHaiti.Mozambique’searlywarningsystems.ofchildrenInMozambique,CaboDelgado–oneoftheLookingahead,distinguishingbetweenthe03.Thehazardspoorestconflict-riddenregionsinthecountrycountriesmostat-riskbutwiththecapacity04.Analysing–isoftenaffectedbycyclones,suchasIdaitocopeandthosewithlimitedcapacitytoandKennethin2019.32AnumberoffactorsprepareforandmitigateriskswillbecriticalfutureriskcombinedmadeIdaiandKennethamongtheintargetingresourcestothemostvulnerable05.Takingactionmostdevastatingdisastersthecountryhaschildrenandcommunities.BACKTOCONTENTS24CHILDRENESTIMATEDNUMBEROFCHILDDISPLACEMENTSDISPLACEDDUETOSTORMSBETWEEN2016AND2021INACHANGINGCLIMATEGlobalTOP10inabsolutenumbersTOP10relativetothechildpopulationa01.Thefacesofchild21.2millionchildPhilippines:8.3millionDominica:75.8%(13,000)displacementdisplacementsIndia:2.8millionSintMaarten(Dutchpart):36.5%(2,800)duetostormsChina:2.6millionNorthernMarianaIslands:36.2%(4,600)02.MappingBangladesh:2.3millionSaintMartin(Frenchpart):35.2%(3,100)disaster-relatedUnitedStates:950,000Cuba:31.4%(670,000)displacementsVietNam:900,000Vanuatu:24.9%(36,000)ofchildrenCuba:670,000Philippines:20.1%(8.3million)Mozambique:410,000UnitedStatesVirginIslands:19.9%(1,200)03.ThehazardsHonduras:370,000Fiji:13.6%(43,000)04.AnalysingMadagascar:190,000Palau:12.9%(580)futureriskaRelativenumbersaregivenheretoprovideanotionofthemagnitudeofthedisplacementriskforachildbetween2016and2021.Thenumbersdonotdescribetheshareofchildrendisplacedduringthisperiodasthesamechildmay05.Takingactionhavebeendisplacedseveraltimesandthuscontributedmorethanoncetothenumberofdisplacements.BACKTOCONTENTS25CHILDRENDroughtsDISPLACEDINACHANGINGDrought:AnextendedperiodofunusuallylowprecipitationthatproducesashortageofwaterforCLIMATEpeople,animalsandplants.Droughtisdiﬀerentfrommostotherhazardsinthatitdevelopsslowly,sometimesevenoveryears,anditsonsetisgenerallydiﬃculttodetect.Droughtisnotsolelyaphysicalphenomenonbecauseitsimpactscanbeexacerbatedbyhumanactivitiesandwatersupplydemands.35Fig.7:Childdisplacementstriggeredbydroughts(2017–2021)01.ThefacesofchildDroughteventsaccordingtotheTOTALCHILDDISPLACEMENTS:displacementnumberofchilddisplacements1.3MILLION02.Mapping1–1,000disaster-related1,000–100,000displacements100,000–1,000,000ofchildrenHotspots03.ThehazardsNote:ThismapdoesnotreflectapositionbyUNICEFonthelegalstatusofanycountryorterritoryorthedelimitationofanyfrontiers.ThedottedlinerepresentsapproximatelytheLineofControlinJammuandKashmiragreeduponbyIndiaand04.AnalysingPakistan.ThefinalstatusofJammuandKashmirhasnotyetbeenagreeduponbytheparties.ThefinalboundarybetweentheSudanandSouthSudanhasnotyetbeendetermined.ThefinalstatusoftheAbyeiareahasnotyetbeendetermined.futureriskDifferenttotheotherhazardsdataondisplacementtriggeredbydroughtshavebeencollectedonlysince2017.05.TakingactionBACKTOCONTENTS26CHILDRENDroughtstriggeredmorethan1.3millionchilddrought-relateddisplacementusuallyoccursDISPLACEDdisplacementsacross15countriesbetweenslowly,only40eventswererecordedinIDMC’sINACHANGING2017and2021.Morethanhalf–730,000–weredatabase.Forinstance,whilecountriessuchasCLIMATErecordedinSomalia,340,000inEthiopiaandAngola,ChadandNamibiaexperiencedrecent190,000inAfghanistan.dryspells,therearefewerdatatolinkthese01.Thefacesofchildeventstoforcedpopulationmovements.InternaldisplacementItisimportanttotreatdataondroughtswithdisplacementisrarelyincludedindrought-relatedcaution,especiallywhencomparingthemtoothersurveysandevaluationsbygovernmentsor02.Mappinghazardsthatmayseemmoreimportantintermshumanitarianorganizations,makingthefullimpactdisaster-relatedofscale,asveryfewreliabledataexist.36Becauseofadroughtdifficulttoassess.37displacementsofchildrenFig.8:Top10countrieswiththemostchilddisplacementstriggeredbydroughts(2017–2021)03.ThehazardsNote:ThismapdoesnotreflectapositionbyUNICEFonthelegalstatusofanycountryorterritoryorthedelimitationofanyfrontiers.ThedottedlinerepresentsapproximatelytheLineofControlinJammuandKashmiragreeduponbyIndiaand04.AnalysingPakistan.ThefinalstatusofJammuandKashmirhasnotyetbeenagreeduponbytheparties.ThefinalboundarybetweentheSudanandSouthSudanhasnotyetbeendetermined.ThefinalstatusoftheAbyeiareahasnotyetbeendetermined.futureriskDifferenttotheotherhazardsdataondisplacementtriggeredbydroughtshavebeencollectedonlysince2017.05.TakingactionBACKTOCONTENTS27CHILDRENEthiopiaandSomaliaappeartobethecountriesdisplacementandmigration,whichhasDISPLACEDmostexposedtodroughtdisplacement,buttheyimplicationsforinterpretingdataandmakingINACHANGINGarealsothecountrieswheredataondroughtsestimates.CLIMATEaremostcomplete.IDMCpublisheditsfirstdroughtdisplacementestimatesin2018andInSomalia,pastoralagricultureisparticularly01.Thefacesofchildconductedextensivesurveysinbothcountries,important,andtheincreasingfrequencyanddisplacementallowingforamorein-depthanalysis.intensityofdroughtshasforcedbothnomadicandsedentarycommunitiestomove.Many02.MappingItisoftendifficulttodistinguishbetweenpastoralistshavelefttheirhomesasthedroughtdisaster-relateddisplacementsthatwerecausedbyaconditionsmakekeepingcattledifficult.38Thedisplacementsdroughtfromthosecausedbyothersocialriskstochildrendisplacedbydroughtsextendofchildrenandeconomicfactors.Drought-relatedbeyondthreatstotheirphysicalwell-beingdisplacementisnotalwayssudden,forcedorandprotection.Despitegrowingpressureon03.Thehazardslinkedtoasingleevent,whichmakesitdifficultinfrastructureandservicesandrisingrentprices04.Analysingtotrack.Movementisoftenaresponsetobecauseoftheincreasingdemand,evidencecumulativechangesthatunfoldoverextendedsuggeststhatpeopledisplacedbecauseoffutureriskperiods–forexample,asaresultofrecurringweather-relatedreasonsoftenmovetourban05.Takingactiondroughtsthatslowlydegradeecosystemsandandperi-urbansettlementsthatarealsohomethreatenthelivelihoodsthatdependonthem.topeopledisplacedbyconflictandviolence.39BACKTOSuchmovementmightbeconsideredlabourIntheseenvironments,childrenalsoexperienceCONTENTSmigrationasaformofadaptationtochange,emotionaldistress,causedbyfactorssuchasoritmightbeconsidereddisplacement,infearoffamilyseparation,water-relatedconflict,28responsetoeventssuchasdrought-relatedmountingtensionsandpressureswithinfamine.Inthecontextofslow-onsetevents,households,alackofemotionalsupportanditismuchhardertodistinguishbetweenincreasedworkloads.CHILDRENHiboandDISPLACEDAyesha’sstoryINACHANGINGCLIMATE01.ThefacesofchildHibois10yearsold.YearsofdroughtinSomaliathedroughttakesholdslowly,therearefewdisplacementforcedherfamilytoleavetheirhomeinGurielopportunitiestomovesafelybeforebecominginsearchoffoodandwater.Weakandfrail,itdisplaced.02.MappingtookHibo10daystoreachtheKahareycampfordisaster-relatedinternallydisplacedpersons,whereshenowlives.ItisincontextssuchasSomaliawhereembracingdisplacementsmigrationasanadaptationstrategyforchildrenofchildrenConsecutiveyearsofbelow-averagerainfallinandyoungpeoplebecomesmostcritical.CurrenttheHornofAfricahavecreatedoneoftheworstlivelihoodsmaybecomeuntenableorincreasingly03.Thehazardsemergenciesofthepast40years.Thescaleofundesirableforyoungpeopletoday,and,withthedisplacementisimmense–andgrowingtherightinformationandskills,movingmay04.Analysingrapidly.becomethebestoptionformany.MigrationfutureriskcanprovideopportunitiesforchildrenandyoungAyesha,an18-year-oldmotherlivinginanotherpeopletopursueaspirations,diversifytheirskills05.Takingactioninternaldisplacementcampexplains,“Weandcontributetotheirnewcommunity.Inthearrivedatthiscampsevendaysago,hopingcontextoftheurgentlow-carbontransitionthatthingswillbebetter.Myfamilyhaslostallourindustrializedeconomiesmustmake,therewillcattleandcamels.Theyalldiedbecausewebesignificantskillsandworkforcegapsthatthehadnowatertogivethem.Wehavenothing.”migrationofyoungworkersbetweencitiesorcountriescanhelpfill.Furthermore,supportingAdolescentgirlssuchasAyeshaandHibo,theupskillingofyoungpeopletofilljobsfocusedfaceparticularrisksfrommigration,includingonsustainabilitycanhelpusmovetowardsalowadolescentpregnancyandviolence.Andwhilecarboneconomy.40BACKTO©UNICEF/UNI361788/SobeckiVIIPhotoCONTENTS29CHILDRENESTIMATEDNUMBEROFCHILDDISPLACEMENTSDUETODISPLACEDDROUGHTSBETWEEN2017AND2021INACHANGINGCLIMATEGlobalTOP10inabsolutenumbersTOP10relativetothechildpopulationa01.Thefacesofchild1.3millionchildSomalia:730,000Somalia:8.0%(730,000)displacementdisplacementsEthiopia:340,000Afghanistan:1.0%(190,000)duetodroughtsAfghanistan:190,000Ethiopia:0.6%(340,000)02.MappingIndia:20,000Iraq:0.1%(12,000)disaster-relatedIraq:12,000Burundi:0.1%(3,900)displacementsAngola:4,000SouthSudan:<0.1%(2,200)ofchildrenBurundi:3,800Angola:<0.1%(4,200)Madagascar:2,900Madagascar:<0.1%(2,900)03.ThehazardsBrazil:2,600Mongolia:<0.1%(210)04.AnalysingSouthSudan:2,200Philippines:<0.1%(2,200)futureriskaRelativenumbersaregivenheretoprovideanotionofthemagnitudeofthedisplacementriskforachildbetween2017and2021.Thenumbersdonotdescribetheshareofchildrendisplacedduringthisperiodasthesamechildmay05.Takingactionhavebeendisplacedseveraltimesandthuscontributedmorethanoncetothenumberofdisplacements.BACKTOCONTENTS30CHILDRENWildfiresDISPLACEDINACHANGINGWildfire:Anyuncontrolledandnon-prescribedcombustionorburningofplantsinanaturalsettingCLIMATEsuchasforest,grassland,brushlandortundrathatconsumesthenaturalfuelsandspreadsbasedonenvironmentalconditions(e.g.,windortopography).Wildﬁrescanbetriggeredbylightningorhumanactions.41Fig.9:Childdisplacementstriggeredbywildfires(2016–2021)01.ThefacesofchildWildfireeventsaccordingtotheTOTALCHILDDISPLACEMENTS:displacementnumberofchilddisplacements810,00002.Mapping1–1,000disaster-related1,000–100,000displacementsHotspotsofchildrenNote:ThismapdoesnotreflectapositionbyUNICEFonthelegalstatusofanycountryorterritoryorthedelimitationofanyfrontiers.ThedottedlinerepresentsapproximatelytheLineofControlinJammuandKashmiragreeduponbyIndiaandPakistan.The03.ThehazardsfinalstatusofJammuandKashmirhasnotyetbeenagreeduponbytheparties.ThefinalboundarybetweentheSudanandSouthSudanhasnotyetbeendetermined.ThefinalstatusoftheAbyeiareahasnotyetbeendetermined.04.Analysingfuturerisk05.TakingactionBACKTOCONTENTS31CHILDRENExtremeweathereventsexacerbatedbyclimateThetopthreecountrieswiththelargestDISPLACEDchangeaffectchildreninlow-andhigh-incomenumberofchilddisplacementsweretheINACHANGINGcountriesalike.YettheriskmitigationmeasuresUnitedStates(610,000),Canada(47,000)andCLIMATEinplacetoreducetheimpactonchildrencanIsrael(31,000).varygreatly.01.ThefacesofchildSincedatafirstbecameavailablein2008,displacementBetween2016and2021,810,000newwildfireshavetriggeredaround3.3millionchilddisplacementsduetowildfiresweredisplacementsglobally,ofwhichalmost90per02.Mappingrecorded,including280,000in2020alone.centhavetakenplaceintheAmericas.disaster-relateddisplacementsFig.10:Top10countrieswiththemostchilddisplacementstriggeredbywildfires(2016–2021)ofchildrenNote:ThismapdoesnotreflectapositionbyUNICEFonthelegalstatusofanycountryorterritoryorthedelimitationofanyfrontiers.ThedottedlinerepresentsapproximatelytheLineofControlinJammuandKashmiragreeduponbyIndiaand03.ThehazardsPakistan.ThefinalstatusofJammuandKashmirhasnotyetbeenagreeduponbytheparties.ThefinalboundarybetweentheSudanandSouthSudanhasnotyetbeendetermined.ThefinalstatusoftheAbyeiareahasnotyetbeendetermined.04.Analysingfuturerisk05.TakingactionBACKTOCONTENTS32CHILDRENUrbanizationandtheexpansionofagriculturetoll,butalsotheirfrequencyandthetimeDISPLACEDmeanthathumansareinincreasinglyclosebetweenthemthatisneededforcommunitiesINACHANGINGcontactwithwildland,increasingtheriskandtorecover.CLIMATEimpactsofwildfires.RisingtemperaturesassociatedwithclimatechangecombinedwithTheanalysishighlightedalargeareaofwildfire01.Thefacesofchilddeforestationandtheuseofslash-and-burnhotspotsonthewestcoastoftheUnitedStates.displacementpracticesalsoincreasetheriskofdroughtandThiswasalsoreflectedinthemanydisplacementfires,exacerbatingtheriskofdisplacement.42,43eventsandnewdisplacementsrecordedinthe02.MappingTherisingnumbersandseverityofwildfires,UnitedStatesduringthetimeperiodstudied.disaster-relatednotonlyinNorthAmericabutalsointheBetween2016and2021,morethan610,000displacementsAmazonregion,willleadtolarger-scalechilddisplacementswereestimatedintheUnitedofchildrendisplacementsinthefuture.44AstheimpactsStates–mostofthempre-emptiveevacuations.ofclimatechangeintensify,itisnotonlytheThemajorityoccurredinCalifornia,affecting03.ThehazardsmagnitudeofdisastersthatdeterminetheirchildrensuchasMiaandMaia.04.Analysingfuturerisk05.TakingactionBACKTOCONTENTS33CHILDRENMiaandDISPLACEDMaia’sstoryINACHANGINGCLIMATE01.ThefacesofchildOnegustyOctobereveningin2017,theBravotraumacanaffecttheirphysicalhealth,displacementfamilynarrowlyescapedtheTubbsFire,whichpotentiallyleadingtochronichealthproblems,burnedpartsofNapaandSonomacountiesinmentalillnessandsubstanceuse.02.MappingCalifornia.Fromthebackofthefamily’sminivandisaster-relatedthatnight,sistersMiaandMaiawatchedState-ledmentalhealthscreeningsinCaliforniadisplacementsflamessurroundtheirtrailerinGlenEllen.TheyfromJanuary2020toSeptember2021foundofchildrenabandonedtheirbelongings,includingMia’sthatchildrenwereathigherriskoftoxicstressfavoritedoll,andleftwithouttheircat,Misi,whoortraumaiftheylivedinthestate’snorthern03.Thehazardswasspookedbythefire.Theonlythingthefamilycounties,aprimarilyruralregionthathasbeensavedwasthethree-month-oldbaby’sblanket.struckbylargewildfiresinrecentyears.4704.AnalysingfutureriskThefamilydroveaway,weavingthroughdarkMostdisplacementstriggeredbywildfireswereroadsilluminatedbyburningtreesandflamingpre-emptiveevacuationsorganizedbydisaster05.Takingactiontumbleweeds.Miawasquiet.Maiavomited.45riskmanagementagenciesatthefederalandstatelevel.IntheUnitedStates,thereareBACKTO“Iwasafraid,inshock,”Maiarecalls.avarietyofsupportprogrammesforpeopleCONTENTS“Iwouldstayupallnight.”affectedbydisasters,includingthosedisplaced.TheFederalEmergencyManagementAgency,34Aswildfiresgrowmoreintense,frequentandforexample,providessupportintheformofwidespread,46manychildrenwholivethroughtemporaryhousingandfinancialassistance.themareexperiencinglastingpsychologicalNonetheless,thementalandphysicalimpactstraumasuchasanxiety,depressionandpost-onchildrenforcedtoleavetheirhomesbecausetraumaticstressdisorder.Childrenmayalsoafireisnear–whethertheyhaveanearlydevelopsleeporattentionproblemsorstrugglewarningoraredisplacedoncethedisasterinschool.Ifnotmanaged,theiremotionalstrikes–aresignificant.©HeidideMarco/KaiserHealthNewsCHILDRENPeoplewhosehomeshavebeendestroyedfaceForexample,followingthedestructive2018DISPLACEDlong-termimpactsandmanystrugglewiththewildfiresinCalifornia,IDMCdatashowthatonlyINACHANGINGcostofrebuildingandareunabletodosobefore728ofthe9,000homesdestroyedinthecityofCLIMATEthenextdisasterstrikes.48,49,50Paradisehavebeenrebuiltmorethantwoyearsafterthefires.5101.ThefacesofchilddisplacementESTIMATEDNUMBEROFCHILDDISPLACEMENTSDUETOWILDFIRESBETWEEN2016AND202102.Mappingdisaster-relatedGlobalTOP10inabsolutenumbersTOP10relativetochildpopulationadisplacementsofchildren810,000childUnitedStates:610,000Israel:1.0%(31,000)displacementsCanada:47,000UnitedStates:0.8%(610,000)03.ThehazardsduetowildfiresIsrael:31,000Greece:0.7%(13,000)04.AnalysingTürkiye:22,000Canada:0.7%(47,000)Australia:19,000Australia:0.3%(19,000)futureriskGreece:13,000SyrianArabRepublic:0.1%(10,000)05.TakingactionSyrianArabRepublic:10,000Türkiye:0.1%(22,000)China:9,600Spain:0.1%(6,700)BACKTOSpain:6,700Portugal:0.1%(1,300)CONTENTSFrance:5,700NewZealand:0.1%(750)35aRelativenumbersaregivenheretoprovideanotionofthemagnitudeofthedisplacementriskforachildbetween2016and2021.Thenumbersdonotdescribetheshareofchildrendisplacedduringthisperiodasthesamechildmayhavebeendisplacedseveraltimesandthuscontributedmorethanoncetothenumberofdisplacements.CHILDRENCompoundHazardsDISPLACEDINACHANGINGFig.11:Weather-relateddisplacementsbysizeandhazard(2016–2021)CLIMATE01.ThefacesofchildFloodsStormsDroughtsWildfiresdisplacement1–1,0001–1,0001–1,0001–1,0001,000–100,00002.Mapping1,000–100,0001,000–100,0001,000–100,000disaster-related100,000–1,000,000100,000–1,000,000100,000–1,000,000displacementsofchildrenNote:ThismapdoesnotreflectapositionbyUNICEFonthelegalstatusofanycountryorterritoryorthedelimitationofanyfrontiers.ThedottedlinerepresentsapproximatelytheLineofControlinJammuandKashmiragreeduponbyIndiaandPakistan.ThefinalstatusofJammuandKashmirhasnotyetbeenagreeduponbytheparties.ThefinalboundarybetweentheSudanandSouthSudanhasnotyetbeendetermined.ThefinalstatusoftheAbyeiareahasnotyetbeendetermined.03.Thehazards04.Analysingfuturerisk05.TakingactionBACKTOCONTENTS36CHILDRENWEATHER-RELATEDDISPLACEMENTSOFCHILDRENDISPLACEDBYREGION(2016–2021)INACHANGINGCLIMATEChilddisplacementsbyhazardandregion(2016–2021)01.ThefacesofchildStormsFloodsDroughtsWildfiresAllhazardsdisplacementRegionNumbersSharebyNumbersSharebyNumbersSharebyNumbersSharebyNumbersShareby02.Mappingregionregionregionregionregiondisaster-relatedEastAsiadisplacementsandPacific12,000,00058%6,700,00034%2,4000.2%31,0003.9%19,000,00044%ofchildrenSouthAsia5,300,00025%5,700,00029%220,00016%5100.1%11,000,00026%03.Thehazards910,0004.3%6,200,00031%1,100,00082%12,0001.5%8,200,00019%04.AnalysingSub-Saharan1,700,0007.9%620,0003.1%Africa2,6000.2%7,4000.9%2,300,0005.3%futurerisk950,0004.5%110,0000.5%05.TakingactionLatinAmerica660,00082%1,700,0004.0%andthe44,0005.4%490,0001.1%BACKTOCaribbeanCONTENTSNorth37AmericaMiddleEast31,0000.1%400,0002.0%12,0000.9%andNorth5,4000.0%75,0000.4%Africa21.2million100%19.7million100%1.3million100%51,0006.3%130,0000.3%810,000100%43.1million100%EuropeandCentralAsiaTotalbyhazardCombiningmultiplehazards,EastAsiaandthePacificistheregionwiththemostweather-relatedchilddisplacementsinabsolutenumbers,followedbySouthAsia.ThemostchilddisplacementswererecordedinthePhilippines–atotalof9.7million–overthelastsixyears.However,otherregions,suchasLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,havealsobeenparticularlyaffectedinrelativeterms.InDominica,weather-relatedchilddisplacementsinthepastsixyearsareequivalentto76percentofthechildpopulation,awithconsiderableimplicationsforpreparednessandDRRplans.aBasedontheavailabledata,itispossiblethatsomechildrenexperiencedmultipledisplacements.CHILDRENESTIMATEDNUMBEROFCHILDDISPLACEMENTSDISPLACEDDUETOALLHAZARDSCOMBINEDBETWEEN2016AND2021INACHANGINGCLIMATEAllhazardsTOP10inabsolutenumbersTOP10relativetothechildpopulationacombined01.Thefacesofchild(floods,storms,Philippines:9.7millionDominica:76%(13,000)displacementdroughtsandIndia:6.7millionSintMaarten(Dutchpart):37%(2,800)wildfires)China:6.4millionNorthernMarianaIslands:36%(4,600)02.MappingBangladesh:3.3millionSaintMartin(Frenchpart):35%(3,000)disaster-related43.1millionchildSomalia:1.7millionCuba:31%(670,000)displacementsdisplacementsUnitedStates:1.7millionVanuatu:25%(36,000)ofchildrenEthiopia:1.3millionPhilippines:23%(9.7million)Indonesia:960,000BritishVirginIslands:20%(1,200)03.ThehazardsVietNam:930,000Somalia:19%(1.7million)04.AnalysingCuba:670,000Fiji:15%(46,000)futureriskaRelativenumbersaregivenheretoprovideanotionofthemagnitudeofthedisplacementriskforachildbetween2016and2021.Thenumbersdonotdescribetheshareofchildrendisplacedduringthisperiodasthesamechildmay05.Takingactionhavebeendisplacedseveraltimesandthuscontributedmorethanoncetothenumberofdisplacements.BACKTOCONTENTS38CHILDREN04.DISPLACEDAnalysingINACHANGINGfutureriskCLIMATEAlthoughlookingbackatpastdisplacementshelpstounderstand01.Thefacesofchildthelocationofdisastersandhowmanychilddisplacementsdisplacementoccured,itleavesoutsomeimportantconsiderations.Theshortsix-yeartimeframecanexcluderisksofrarerbutmoresevere02.Mappingdisasters.Extremedisastersoccurinfrequently,maybeonlydisaster-relatedevery100,500oreven1,000years.Althoughthesedisastersaredisplacementsuncommon,whentheydooccur,theycanleadtodramaticlossesofchildrenoflifeanddisplacements.03.Thehazards04.Analysingfuturerisk05.TakingactionBACKTO©UNICEF/UN0360925/Gómez/AFP-ServicesCONTENTS39CHILDRENTofillthisgapinthehistoricalanalysis,arenarrower–aconsequenceofhowtheDISPLACEDwehavetakenadvantageofthedisastermodeliscomputingtherisks.Forexample,INACHANGINGdisplacementriskmodeldevelopedbywhilethehistoricdisplacementdatausuallydoCLIMATEIDMCin2017.Theriskmodelusesinformationnotdifferentiatebetweencoastalfloodingandonhazards(e.g.,cyclones),exposure(peopleriverineflooding(andincludeotherformsof01.Thefacesofchildandbuildings)andvulnerability(fragilityoffloodingsuchasflashfloods),thedisplacementdisplacementbuildings)toestimatedisplacementrisksinriskmodelconsidersonlyriverinefloods.thefuture.ThemodeltakesintoaccounttheTherefore,itisnotpossibletodirectlycompare02.Mappingriskofmedium-tolarge-scaleevents,thatis,thedisplacementnumbersbetweenthetwodisaster-relateddisastersthatoccurmorefrequentlybutleadtypesofanalysis.displacementstorelativelyfewdisplacements,and‘once-in-a-ofchildrenlifetime’disasters(oreven‘once-in-a-century’Anotherdifferenceisthattheriskmodelor‘once-in-a-millennium’disasters),whichcandoesnotincludepre-emptiveevacuations.03.Thehazardsleadtolarge-scaledisplacements.UsingthisThisisbecausethemodelestimatesfuture04.Analysinginformation,wecanestimatehowmanypeopledisplacementsbasedontheextentofthecouldbedisplacedonaverageinanygivenyeardamageanddestructionthathazardofdifferentfutureriskinthefuture.Thisnumber–theaverageannualintensitiesarelikelytocause.Pre-emptive05.Takingactiondisplacement(AAD)–shouldnotbeunderstoodevacuationscan–dependingonthehazardsasthenumberofdisplacementsthatcanbeandthecountry’slevelofpreparedness–BACKTOexpectedtooccureveryyear.ItisratheranconstitutealargeproportionoftherecordedCONTENTSaverageofthenumberofdisplacementscauseddisplacements(e.g.,forwildfiresintheUnitedbyallkindsofeventsthatcouldoccuroveraStates,cyclonesinthePhilippines).Mostof40longtimeframe.Asinglelargedisastereventtheevacueesmaybeabletoreturntotheir–suchasaonce-in-a-millenniumflood–willhousesafterthehazardsubsidesandtheirresultinfarmoredisplacementsthantheAAD.displacementmaylastforonlyashortwhile,Byexpandingthetimehorizon,theAADmetricwhileothersmayfindtheirhomes,schools,becomesmoreconcreteandtangible:Itcantellhealthfacilitiesandotherinfrastructureushowmanydisplacementswecouldexpectindestroyedandbecometrappedinprotractedthenext10,20oreven50years.adisplacement.Sincetheriskmodeldoesnotaccountforpre-emptiveevacuations,Animportantdifferencebetweenthismodeltheresultingnumbersareasignificantandtheanalysisofhistoricdisplacementsisunderestimateoftheactualnumberofchildrenthatthehazardsconsideredintheriskmodellikelytobedisplacedinthefuture.aIngeneral,AAD,bothinitsoriginalformasanannualvalueandaccumulatedoveraperiodoftime,shouldbeconsideredasanindicatorofthepotentialmagnitudeofdisplacement,notasanexactvalue.TheAADisanaveragevaluebasedonpastconditionsthatmaychangeinthefuture.Forexample,peoplemaymoveinoroutofanareaatriskorinhabitdifferenttypesofbuildings,whichbothhaveaninfluenceonexposureandvulnerability.CHILDRENLOOKINGTOTHEFUTUREDISPLACEDINACHANGINGThehazardlikelytotriggerthemostchilddisplacementsinthefutureisriverinefloods,withanaverageofalmost3.2millionCLIMATEchildrendisplacedeveryyear.Thiswouldrepresentalmost96milliondisplacementsoverthenext30years.Cyclonicwindsarethesecondmostimpactfulhazard,withthepotentialtocausemorethan10.3millionchilddisplacementsover30years.Finally,stormsurgescouldberesponsiblefor7.2millionchilddisplacementsoverthisperiod.Thefiguresareverydifferentwhenlookingatcountriesusingrelativeversusabsolutenumbers.Giventheirlargepopulation,India,Bangladesh,VietNam,thePhilippinesandChinaarethefivecountrieswiththemostpredictedfuturedisplacementsofchildrenowingtoallhazardscombined(riverineflood,cyclonesandstormsurges).However,inrelativeterms,theBritishVirginIslands,theBahamasandAntiguaandBarbudaarethecountriesthatwillseetheirchildpopulationsmostaffectedbydisasterdisplacement.01.ThefacesofchildSimilartotheanalysisofhistoricdisplacements,However,itisimportanttorememberthatdisplacementthemodeldevelopedforthisstudyallowsusthisanalysisdoesnottakeintoaccountthetoidentifyareasthatcarryahighriskofbeingarea’svulnerabilitynorthepotentialmitigation02.Mappingaffectedbyspecifichazardsinthefutureandhavemeasuresinplacetopreventthehazardfromdisaster-relatedalargechildpopulation,thusallowingexpectedaffectingthepopulation,suchasthedegreetodisplacementshotspotsoffuturechilddisplacementstobewhichhousesareresistanttodisasters.ofchildrenidentified.DeterminingthegeographiclocationsofpotentialfuturedisastersandthescaleofThefollowingpagesprovideanalysesofthree03.Thehazardstheexpectedchildpopulationaffectedcanhelpcountry-specificexamplesoffuturerisk:riverine04.Analysingcountriespreparefordisaster-relateddisplacementfloodsinNigeria,stormsurgesinthePhilippinesandmitigatetherisksandimpactonchildrenandandcyclonicwindsinBangladesh.futurerisktheircommunities.05.TakingactionBACKTOCONTENTS41CHILDRENRiverinefloodsinNigeria–RiskmodelDISPLACEDINACHANGINGFig.12:RiskofchilddisplacementtriggeredbyriverinefloodsinNigeriaasestimatedbyriskmodelCLIMATE01.ThefacesofchildChildpopulationsatriskdisplacementofriverinefloods02.MappingLow-riskareasdisaster-relatedMedium-riskareasdisplacementsHigh-riskareasofchildrenHotspots03.ThehazardsBlueareasshowtheextentoffloodswitha100-yearreturnperiodcombinedwiththedensityofthechildpopulation.Thedarkertheshadeofblue,thegreatertheriskofchildrenbeingaffectedbyriverinefloods.Reddotsrepresent04.Analysinghotspotswhereahighriskofriverinefloodsandalargechildpopulationputaverylargenumberofchildrenatriskofdisplacement.MapbasedondatafromGAR2017,WorldPop,GHSL2022.Thismapfocusesonriverinefloodswitha100-yearreturnperiod.Thereturnperiodisameasureoftheseverityofaneventandthelikelihoodofitoccurring.Eventswithashorterreturnperiodarelessextremebutmorelikelytooccurinanygivenyear,whereaseventswithfuturerisklongerreturnperiodsaremoreextremebutlesslikelytooccurinanygivenyear.A100-yearreturnperiodhazardcanbeunderstoodasamediumhazardeventthathasa1percentannualchanceofoccurring–oronaverage(overa05.Takingactionlongperiod)occursonceevery100years.Seehttps://www.gfdrr.org/en/100-year-floodforamoredetaileddescription.Note:ThismapdoesnotreflectapositionbyUNICEFonthelegalstatusofanycountryorterritoryorthedelimitationofanyfrontiers.BACKTOCONTENTS42CHILDRENNigeriaislocatedattheconfluenceoftwoinanygivenyear.ThisrepresentsasimilarDISPLACEDmajorWestAfricanrivers,theNigerandannualfiguretotheobserveddisplacements,INACHANGINGtheBenue.HeavyprecipitationupstreaminbutitisactuallyasignificantunderestimateasCLIMATECameroon,MaliandtheNigerduringtherainyitreferstoriverinefloodsonly.Incontrast,theseasonoftentriggersflooding.Nigeriaisthehistoricalanalysistakesintoaccountpotential01.ThefacesofchildmostpopulatedcountryinAfrica,andthousandsdisplacementstriggeredbycoastalﬂoodingdisplacementofyoungNigeriansaredisplacedeveryyearandflashfloods.53Populationgrowth,rapidbecauseofflooding,withmanymoreatriskofurbanizationandclimateprojectionsareexpected02.Mappingdisplacementinthefuture.tofurtherincreasetheriskandnumbersofchilddisaster-relateddisplacementsinthecomingyears.54displacementsBetween2016and2021,floodingcausedanofchildrenestimated650,000childdisplacementsacrossHotspotareasforfuturedisplacementcanbethecountry.Theareasmostaffectedbyfloodidentifiedalongthecountry’srivers,mainly03.ThehazardsdisplacementwerearoundurbancentresandaroundtheNigerandtheCrossRiverand04.Analysingrivers.Themaineventgeneratingdisplacementtheirtributaries,withtheareasaroundthewaswidespreadfloodinginAugust2018,whichdeltaofPortHarcourtandLokojapossessingfutureriskdisplaced320,000children.Thissoleeventthegreatestriskofchilddisplacement.Thisis05.Takingactionrepresentsalmosthalfofthechilddisplacementsconsistentwiththehotspotpatternfromtherecordedinsixyears.Thismeansthatbeingreadyhistoricaldisplacementanalysis.BACKTOtorespondtoextremefloodingevents,especiallyCONTENTSduringtherainyseasonbetweenAprilandAstheanalysisshows,itiscrucialtoinvestinfloodOctober,isimportant.52mitigationmeasuresineveryregionofthecountry43topreventchilddisplacement–especiallyinfast-Lookingtothefuture,theriskmodelanalysisgrowingperi-urbanareas.Thedeadly2022floods,showsthatmorethan3.1millionchildreninaffecting2.6millionchildrenanddisplacingaroundNigeriaalonecouldbedisplacedbyriverine2.4millionpeopleacross34states,areaclearfloodsoverthenext30years–about100,000reminderofthispressingneed.55,56CHILDRENStormsurgesinthePhilippines–RiskmodelDISPLACEDINACHANGINGFig.13:RiskofchilddisplacementtriggeredbystormsurgesinthePhilippinesasestimatedbyriskmodelCLIMATE01.ThefacesofchildChildpopulationsatriskofstormsurgesdisplacementLow-riskareas02.MappingMedium-riskareasdisaster-relatedHigh-riskareasdisplacementsHotspotsofchildrenVioletareasshowtheextentofstormsurgeswitha100-yearreturnperiodcombinedwiththedensityofthechildpopulation.Thedarkertheshadeofviolet,thehighertheriskofchildrenbeingaffectedbystormsurges.Reddots03.Thehazardsrepresenthotspotswhereahighriskofstormsurgesandalargechildpopulationputaverylargenumberofchildrenatriskofdisplacement.MapbasedondatafromGAR2017,WorldPop,GHSL2022.Thismapfocusesonstorm04.Analysingsurgeswitha100-yearreturnperiod.Thereturnperiodisameasureoftheseverityofaneventandthelikelihoodofitoccurring.Eventswithashorterreturnperiodarelessextremebutmorelikelytooccurinanygivenyear,whereaseventswithlongerreturnperiodsaremoreextremebutlesslikelytooccurinanygivenyear.A100-yearreturnperiodhazardcanbeunderstoodasmediumhazardeventthathasa1percentannualchanceofoccurring–futureriskoronaverage(overalongperiod)occursonceevery100years.Seehttps://www.gfdrr.org/en/100-year-floodforamoredetaileddescription.05.TakingactionNote:ThismapdoesnotreflectapositionbyUNICEFonthelegalstatusofanycountryorterritoryorthedelimitationofanyfrontiers.BACKTOCONTENTS44CHILDRENThePhilippines’locationandtopographyHowever,asthemapshows,theentirecoastlineDISPLACEDplacesitatahighriskofstormsurges,whereofthePhilippinesisexposed,withpotentialforINACHANGINGanabnormalriseofthetideiscausedbymassiverepercussionsforchildren.CLIMATEstrongwindsandlowatmosphericpressuresduringatropicalcyclone.CombinedwithhighBasedonthehistoricaldataanalysis,44,00001.Thefacesofchildtides,stormsurgescanhavedevastatingchilddisplacementstriggeredbystormsurgesdisplacementimpactsonchildrenlivingincoastalareas–werereportedbetween2016and2021.On18uprootingthemfromtheirhomes,washingDecember2020,TropicalDepressionKrovanh,02.MappingawayschoolsanddisruptingaccesstocleanalsoknownasTropicalDepressionVickyinthedisaster-relatedwater,sanitation,healthcareandotherPhilippines,hitDavaoandCaragawithastormdisplacementsservices.57Accordingtoourdisplacementsurge,displacing36,000children.However,ofchildrenriskmodel,2.5millionchildrenacrossthethisrelativelylownumbercomparedwithPhilippinesareatriskofbeingdisplacedthenumberofchilddisplacementslinkedto03.Thehazardsduringthenext30yearsbystormsurges.typhoonsmaybebecausethedistinctionis04.AnalysingnotalwaysmadebetweenthestormanditsTheanalysisofdatafromhistoricaltropicalrelatedimpacts,suchasstormsurges,whenfutureriskcyclones,alongwithavailablegeographicaldisplacementsarerecorded.05.TakingactioninformationaboutthePhilippines,suggeststhatmostofthecountry’scoastlineislikelytobeAlthoughthePhilippineshasarobustsysteminBACKTOhitbyastormsurgeinthefuture,sometimesplacetobothpreventandrespondtodisasters,CONTENTSaffectinghighlypopulatedareassuchasManilaincludingmonitoringsystems,earlywarnings,orCebuCity.58Thehotspotanalysisidentifiedevacuationprotocolsandavailableshelters,5945locationswherelargenumbersofchildrenarethesheernumberofchildrenwhocouldbeatriskofdisplacementduetostormsurges–apotentiallydisplacedbyasingledisastereventcombinedeffectofthefrequencyofhazardraisesimportantquestionsaboutthecapacityofevents,severityoftheevents,vulnerabilityoftheshelters,schoolsandotherservicestoabsorbareaandthenumbersofexposedchildrenlivingdisplacedpopulationsinlocationsthatlendthere.Thesehotspotsareconcentratedaroundthemselvestohostingdisplacedpopulationslargecities,includingDavao,CebuandManila.afteradisasterstrikes.CHILDRENPROMISINGPRACTICEINTHEPHILIPPINESDISPLACEDINACHANGINGThePhilippinesisoneofthefewcountriestosystematicallycollectdisasterdisplacementdata.TheDisasterResponseOperationsCLIMATEMonitoringandInformationCentercollectsdataonthenumberofpeopleevacuatedandthenumberstayinginsheltersorwithrelativesovertimeanddisaggregatesthisinformationbyage,sexandlocation.60Importantguidelinesandinnovationshavealsobeendevelopedtomitigatedisasterriskandmanageresponseeffortsafteradisasterstrikes.Forexample,avillageearly-warningsysteminthePhilippinesincorporatessoundandvisualsignalstoimproveaccessibility.6101.Thefacesofchilddisplacement02.Mappingdisaster-relateddisplacementsofchildren03.Thehazards04.Analysingfuturerisk05.TakingactionBACKTO©UNICEF/UN0726762/SalvadorCONTENTS46CHILDRENCyclonicwindsinBangladesh–RiskmodelDISPLACEDINACHANGINGFig.14:RiskofchilddisplacementtriggeredbycyclonicwindsinBangladeshasestimatedbyriskmodelCLIMATE01.ThefacesofchildChildpopulationsatriskofcyclonicwindsdisplacementLow-riskareas02.MappingMedium-riskareasdisaster-relatedHigh-riskareasdisplacementsHotspotsofchildrenGreenareasshowtheextentofcyclonicwindswitha100-yearreturnperiodcombinedwiththedensityofthechildpopulation.Thedarkertheshadeofgreen,thehighertheriskofchildrenbeingaffectedbycyclonicwinds.Red03.Thehazardsdotsrepresenthotspotswhereahighriskofcyclonicwindsandalargechildpopulationputaverylargenumberofchildrenatriskofdisplacement.MapbasedondatafromGAR2017,WorldPop,GHSL2022.Thismapfocuseson04.Analysingcyclonicwindswitha100-yearreturnperiod.Thereturnperiodisameasureoftheseverityofaneventandthelikelihoodofitoccurring.Eventswithashorterreturnperiodarelessextremebutmorelikelytooccurinanygivenyear,whereaseventswithlongerreturnperiodsaremoreextremebutlesslikelytooccurinanygivenyear.A100-yearreturnperiodhazardcanbeunderstoodasmediumhazardeventthathasa1percentannualchanceoffutureriskoccurring–oronaverage(overalongperiod)occursonceevery100years.Seehttps://www.gfdrr.org/en/100-year-floodforamoredetaileddescription.05.TakingactionNote:ThismapdoesnotreflectapositionbyUNICEFonthelegalstatusofanycountryorterritoryorthedelimitationofanyfrontiers.BACKTOCONTENTS47CHILDRENBangladeshhashistoricallybeenahigh-riskTropicalcyclonesrepresentedover70percentofDISPLACEDcountryforweather-relateddisplacement–thetotalweather-relatedchilddisplacementsinINACHANGINGandthisriskisonlygrowingastheimpactsBangladeshbetween2016and2021,totallingoverCLIMATEofclimatechangeaccelerate,demographics2.3milliondisplacements.Childdisplacementschangeandrapidurbanizationcontinues.–includingpre-emptiveevacuations–peaked01.ThefacesofchildAccordingtotheGlobalClimateRiskIndexin2019when1.3milliondisplacementsweredisplacement2021,Bangladeshisamongthetop10triggeredbyninestormeventsacrossthecountry.countriesmostaffectedbyextremesudden-CyclonesBulbulinNovemberandFaniinMay02.Mappingonseteventsinthepast20years.62Basedwereresponsibleforthemajority,causing700,000disaster-relatedonthedisplacementriskmodel,intotal,1.1and550,000childdisplacements,respectively.displacementsmillionchildreninBangladeshcouldbeAlthoughthesechildren’sliveswereforcefullyofchildrendisplacedbycyclonicwindsoverthenextinterrupted,manyofthesedisplacementscanbe30years.Thisfigurerepresentsestimationsattributedtopre-emptiveevacuationsandwere03.Thehazardsoflong-termdisplacementsduetodamagetoonlytemporaryinnature.04.Analysinghomesthatleavesthemuninhabitable–thenumbercouldbemuchhigherwhenaccountingCycloneAmphanmadelandfallbetweenfutureriskforpre-emptiveevacuations.WestBengalinIndiaandtheHatiyaIslandsin05.TakingactionBangladeshon20May2020,triggering750,000Childrenacrosstheentirecountryareatriskofchilddisplacementsacrossthecountry.WindBACKTObeingaffectedbycyclonicwinds(seethegreenspeedsreached130–140km/h,causingtheCONTENTSshadingthroughoutthemapinFigure14),amassdestructionofhouses,schools,roadsandconsequenceofboththefactthatcyclonicotherinfrastructureincoastaldistricts.Crops48windscanreachallareasofthecountryandtheandhealthfacilitieswerealsodevastated,highandrelativelyevenlydistributedpopulationcontributingtochildmalnutrition,separationdensityofBangladesh.Theareasinredonthefromfamiliesandcaregivers,andincreasedriskmaprepresenthotspotsforchildexposureofchildlabourandviolence.64tocyclonicwinds.ThesearemainlylocatedaroundDhaka,thecapitalandlargestcity,withWhileBangladeshalreadyhasanestablishedapopulationsofalmost22millionpeople,andnetworkofshelters,earlywarningsystemsandChattogram,thesecondlargestcity.Urbanevacuationplansinplace,demographicandurbanareas–especiallythoselocatedalongthegrowthcombinedwithclimatechangeareputtingcoastorriverbasins–arewherehigh-densitypressureonthenationalandlocalgovernmentspopulation,rapidurbanizationandrecurringtoincreaseoneffortstopreventandmitigatethedisasterscollide.63riskofdisplacementanditsnegativeeffects.65,66CHILDREN05.DISPLACEDTakingINACHANGINGactionCLIMATEThehotspotmappingsofpastdisasterdisplacementstogetherwith01.Thefacesofchildthefutureriskanalysisprovideaguidetowhereweather-relateddisplacementdisplacementsofchildrenmayoccurnowandintheyearstocome.Astheimpactsofclimatechangeintensify,wecanexpectmore02.Mappingfrequentandmoresevereweather-relateddisasters,increasingthedisaster-relatedriskofchilddisplacementinthehotspotsidentified.displacementsofchildren03.Thehazards04.Analysingfuturerisk05.TakingactionBACKTO©UNICEF/UN0362743/LucesCONTENTS49CHILDRENHowever,itisimportanttoconsiderdisplacementThemodellingalsoexposedcriticalgapsintheDISPLACEDriskdataalongsidedataonchildpoverty,conflictavailabledata,especiallyincontextsaffectedINACHANGINGandfragilitytoidentifythemostvulnerablebydisplacementassociatedwithslow-onsetCLIMATEchildren.Fragileandconflict-affectedcountriesprocesses.Droughts,forexample,areusuallyarealreadygrapplingwithoverlappingcrises–theresultofmultiplefactors,makingitdifficult01.Thefacesofchildincludinglargenumbersofinternallydisplacedtoisolatetheclimaticeventasthetrigger.Thedisplacementpeopleandrefugees–strainingthecountries’sustainableandsystematiccollectionofdatacapacitiestocopewithadditionaldisplacementovertimeiscriticaltoprovideaclearerpicture02.Mappingcausedbydisasters.Changingpopulationofdisplacementlinkedtoslow-onsethazards.disaster-relateddynamicsmeanthatthesizeofthepopulationAdditionalinvestmentstoaddressthesegapsdisplacementsatriskispredictedtogrowinsomehotspotiscriticaltoguideforecast-basedclimateandofchildrencountriesandregions.Forexample,Westernmobilitypolicies,mapandpreparehotspotsAfricacanexpectasignificantpopulationincreaseforclimatedisplacement,andsupport03.Thehazardsandmigrationtourbancentres,whichareinformedchoicestoadapt,stayormoveby04.Analysingoftenlocatedincoastalareaswithahighriskofchildrenandfamilies.weather-relateddisplacement.67futurerisk05.TakingactionWherewerechildrenmostaffectedbyweather-relateddisplacement?BACKTOThroughanalysingpastdisplacementtrendsandavailableinformationonpreparednessandcopingCONTENTScapacities,threedifferentcountrytypologiesemerge:501.Highrisk,butwithgoodcopingcapacity:CountrieslikethePhilippinesandBangladesharehighriskandhighlyaffectedbyweather-relateddisplacementowingtotheirgeographyandseasonalandregularlyrecurringhazards.However,theyarealsotakingstepstomanagedisasterriskswithearlywarningandDRRsystems.Pre-emptiveevacuationsareusedtosuccessfullyreducethenumberofinjuriesandliveslostwhenadisasterstrikes.Theseevacuationsareoftenreportedasdisplacementsandcontributetohigheroveralldisplacementfiguresforsomecountries;however,dependingonthespecificsituation,manyoftheevacueesmaystillendupfacinglong-termdisplacementiftheirhomes,roadsandinfrastructurearedestroyed.CHILDREN2.Increasingriskduetoclimatechange:CountriessuchasVanuatuorFijiarebecomingDISPLACEDincreasinglyaffectedbyacceleratingclimatechange,whichincreasesdisplacementriskslinkedINACHANGINGtoextremeweather.Researchonthesetwocountriessuggeststhatdevastatingfloods,whichCLIMATEcurrentlyoccuronlyonceevery250yearsonaverage,arelikelytooccurevery5-25yearsbytheendofthecentury.68AlthoughboththesecountrieshaverobustmonitoringandDRRsystems,6901.Thefacesofchildthegrowingimpactsofclimatechangehaveseriousimplicationsforplanningandpreparingfordisplacementdisplacementthatmayaffectchildrenmultipletimesthroughouttheirchildhood.02.Mapping3.Moderateorhighrisk,butwithlimitedcapacitytocope:Somecountriesareatmoderateordisaster-relatedhighriskofweather-relatedextremesalsofacethecompoundingfactorsofhighratesofdisplacementspoverty,conflictandotherhazards,whichleavechildrenandtheircommunitiesparticularlyofchildrenvulnerable.Forexample,Haitiishighriskandisalsodealingwithconflict,violence,poverty,earthquakesandlimitedinvestmentinriskmitigationandpreparedness.InMozambique,poor03.Thehazardscommunitiesaredisproportionatelyaffectedwithlittlecapacitytorecoverfromconsecutive04.Analysingdisasters.Itisinthesecountries,whereriskmitigation,adaptationandpreparedness–includingembracingpre-emptiveevacuationsandotherclimatemobilityoptionstosavelivesandminimizefutureriskanydisruptiontochildren’saccesstocriticalservices–ismosturgent.05.TakingactionBACKTOCONTENTS51CHILDRENToimproveoutcomesforchildrenandyoungpeopleatriskoffuturedisplacementandtodeliveronDISPLACEDthecommitmentsmadeundertheParisAgreement,SendaiFramework,SustainableDevelopmentINACHANGINGGoals,andGlobalCompactsforMigrationandRefugees–governments,donors,developmentCLIMATEpartnersandtheprivatesectorshouldjoinforcestoprioritizethefollowingactions:01.Thefacesofchild1.PROTECTchildrenandyoungpeoplefromtheimpactsofclimatechangeanddisplacementbydisplacementensuringthatchild-criticalservices–includingeducation,health,socialprotectionandchildprotectionservices–areshock-responsive,portableandinclusive,includingforthose02.Mappingalreadyuprooted.disaster-relateddisplacements•Adaptservicesinhotspotlocationstoberesilienttotheimpactsofclimateofchildrenchangeandpreparedtoreachandprotectthemostvulnerablebefore,duringandafterdisasterstrikes.Designingservicesandinfrastructurebasedonadisplacement03.Thehazardsriskanalysiswithflexibilityandsurgecapacitytoabsorbdisplacedpopulationsiskey.04.AnalysingFurthermore,ensuringthatschoolstructuresarenotusedasevacuationsitesisimportanttominimizedisruptionstoeducationfollowingdisplacement.futurerisk05.Takingaction•Designservicestobeportableandabletofollowchildrenastheymovewithincountriesoracrossborders.ThismeansprioritizingportableskillsandeducationBACKTOcertification,andonlineaccesstoidentitydocuments,healthrecordsandotherinformationCONTENTSthatenableschildrentoreunitewithfamily,maintainaccesstohealthcare,continuetolearnandstayconnectedwiththeircommunities.52•Setupservicestobeequitableandinclusive.Poorerchildrenwhoalreadyfaceeconomicdisadvantagearemorelikelytoliveinhotspotlocationsandfacedisproportionateimpactsfromclimaticevents.Addressinginequitiesmeanssettingupsystemsandcapacityforshock-responsivesocialprotection,includingcashtransfermechanismstosupportchildrenaffectedbyclimateshocks.CHILDREN2.PREPAREchildrenandyoungpeopletoliveinaclimate-changedworldbyimprovingtheirDISPLACEDadaptivecapacityandresilienceandenablingtheirparticipation.INACHANGINGCLIMATE•Equipchildrenandyoungpeopleinhotspotlocationswiththeportableskillsneededtobuildlivelihoodselsewhereinaclimate-changedworld.Thisentailsstrengthening01.Thefacesofchildtheecosystemthatsupportschildrenandyoungpeopletodevelopgreenskillsanddisplacemententrepreneurshipingreensectors.Italsoincludesgreenjobsgeneration,includingaspartofeffortstomaketheagriculture,energy,constructionandminingsectorsmoresustainable02.Mappingdisaster-related•Educateandempowerchildrenandyoungpeopletomeaningfullyengageinclimatedisplacementspolicyandaction.Providingchildrenwithknowledgeofclimatechangeandresilienceofchildrentechniquesthroughclimateeducationiscriticaltoenablingchildrenandyoungpeople–includingthoseonthemoveorinhotspotlocations–toeffectivelyinfluenceclimate03.Thehazardspolicies,budgetsandplans.Itisimportanttoensurethatchildrenandyoungpeopleare04.Analysingdirectlyinformedaboutandshapedbythelivedexperiences,prioritiesandknowledgeofcommunitiesaffectedbyclimatechangeanddisplacement.futurerisk05.Takingaction3.PRIORITIZEchildrenandyoungpeople–includingthosealreadyuprootedfromtheirhomes–inclimate,humanitariananddevelopmentpolicy,actionandinvestments.BACKTOCONTENTS•Prioritizechild-sensitiveDRR,communityearly-warningsystemsandanticipatoryactiontominimizerisk.53Leveragedisplacement-sensitivesituationalandriskanalysistoinformDRRandpreparednessplans.Whenhazardsstrike,displacedchildrenandyoungpeoplemayfacespecificchallengesandbarriersthatneedtobeconsideredinnationalandlocalDRRpoliciesandplans.Itisalsocriticaltoensurecommunityearly-warningsystemsareequippedtoreachdisplacedpopulationsandcommunitiesinhotspotlocations.Engagelocalgovernments,affectedcommunities,andchildrenandyoungpeoplethemselvesinDRRandplanningfordisplacement.Ensuringawhole-of-societyapproachandpartneringwithlocalactors,communitiesanddisplacedchildrenandyoungpeople–andthoselivinginhotspotlocations–iscritical.CHILDRENEstablishflexiblefinancingandpre-arrangedpartnershipstopreparefordisplacement.DISPLACEDAnticipatoryactiontobrokerpublic–privatepartnershipsandestablishprearrangedfinancingINACHANGINGandresourcestoexpandservicesandabsorbdisplacedpopulationsfollowingadisastercanCLIMATEhelpprepareforfuturedisplacementcrises.01.Thefacesofchild•Strengthendatasystemstoplanfor,trackandmonitortheweather-relateddisplacementdisplacementofchildrenandleverageinnovativetechnologiestohelppredictandsimulatedisasters.02.Mappingdisaster-relatedWherepossible,datashouldbedisaggregatedbyage,sex,location,ethnicity,displacementshouseholdincomeandotherkeysocialanddemographicvariablestoinformmoreofchildrentargetedandeffectiveinvestmentandinterventionsbygovernments,humanitariananddevelopmentpartners.03.Thehazards04.AnalysingAsmanyclimate-relatedcrisesarepredictable,investmenttoscaleupbothgovernments’andhumanitarianactors’forecastingandriskanalysiscapabilitiesforstrengthenedfutureriskanticipatoryaction,preparednessandresiliencebuildingiscritical.Leveragingdataon05.Takingactioninfrastructureandpastdisasterscanhelppredictthedamagewhendifferentdisastershit.BACKTO•Recognizetheconnectionbetweenhumanmobility,displacementandclimatechange.CONTENTSManagemobilityoptionsbyexpandinginclusive,fairandaccessiblemigration54pathwaysforchildren,familiesandyoungpeoplelivinginhotspotlocations.Theoptiontomovesafely,voluntarilyandwithdignityfromweather-relatedhotspotstocitiesoracrossborderscanprovideopportunitiesforyoungpeopletoadapttoachangingclimateastheypursuetheiraspirationsandlivelihoods.Planningforpre-emptiveevacuationsandrelocationsaheadoftimewithandforaffectedcommunitieswillalsobecritical.Includemigrantanddisplacedchildrenandyoungpeople,andtheirspecificprotectionandassistanceneeds,inlocal,national,regionalandinternationalclimatestrategies,plansandpolicies.ThisincludesNationalAdaptationPlans,NationallyDeterminedContributions,DRRstrategiesandwiderframeworksforsustainabledevelopment.CHILDREN•Scaleupchild-responsiveandmobility-sensitiveclimatefinance.DISPLACEDINACHANGINGEnsurethatthemoneyflowstoprioritycountriestostrengthencapacitiestoprepareCLIMATEandcope.ThisincludesincreasingclimatefundingandfinancingthroughtheGreenClimateFund,GlobalEnvironmentFacilityTrustFund,AdaptationFundandLossandDamageFundto01.Thefacesofchildthecountriesmostatriskoftheweather-relateddisplacementofchildren,especiallythosedisplacementthatarealsofragileorconflict-affected,wheretherisksaregreatbutthecopingcapacityislow.Itwillbenecessarytounlockbarriersthatpreventfinancereachingthesehotspots02.Mappingbecauseofconflictorfragility.disaster-relateddisplacementsWithintheseprioritycountries,prioritizeinvestmentstostrengthentheclimateofchildrenresilienceandportabilityofchild-criticalservicesthroughchild-responsiveinterventions,includingineducation,health,foodandnutrition,cleanenergy,water,sanitationand03.Thehazardshygiene,childandsocialprotectionservices,anddisasterriskreduction.04.AnalysingRe-imagineexistingfinancingmodelstoprepareforafuturethatisalreadyunderway.futureriskUnlockfundingtosupportanticipatoryactiononclimatedisplacement,includingforplanned05.Takingactionrelocationsthatarechild-sensitive,andensuremeaningfulchildandyouthparticipation.LeveraginginnovativefinancinginstrumentswillreducethelikelihoodofcrowdingoutotherBACKTOdevelopmentorhumanitarianfinancethatchildrenalsodependon.ThesecouldincludeCONTENTSgreen,blueormunicipalbonds;innovativeinsuranceschemes;anddebt-for-climateanddebt-for-natureswaps.55CHILDRENWORKINGINPARTNERSHIPDISPLACEDWITHYOUNGPEOPLEINACHANGINGAFFECTEDBYCLIMATE-CLIMATERELATEDDISPLACEMENT01.ThefacesofchildTocomplementthedataanalysis,UNICEFworkedcloselywithdisplacementyoungpeopleexperiencingfirst-handtheimpactsofweather-relateddisplacementinhotspotlocations.Apartofajointinitiative02.MappingwiththeAfricanClimateMobilityInitiative(ACMI),10youthdisaster-relateddelegateswereselectedthroughayouthinnovationchallengedisplacementstoattendCOP27inperson.70Thedelegatescontributedtopublicofchildreneventsandbilateralmeetingswithheadsofgovernments,UnitedNationsagencies,innovatorsandbusinesspartners.Theyalso03.Thehazardshelpedlaunchthefirst-everAfricanYouthDeclarationonClimate04.AnalysingMobility,71outliningtheirprioritiesforyouth-ledsolutionstotheclimatecrisisandhumanmobilitynexus.futurerisk05.TakingactionBACKTOCONTENTS56CHILDRENAnnex:DISPLACEDKeytermsandconceptsINACHANGINGCLIMATEPre-emptiveevacuations:Evacuationsarecodeddataondisasterdisplacementsinceusuallyplanned,recommendedormandatory2016.Althoughweather-relatedeventsinvolve01.Thefacesofchildandfacilitatedbygovernmentagenciestonaturalprocesses,humaninfluencecannotbedisplacementavoidthepotentialimpactsofahazardbeforeitoverlooked–beithuman-inducedeffectsonstrikes.Pre-emptiveevacuationsoccurbeforeclimatechangeorenvironmentaldegradation.02.MappingadisasterstrikesandcanreducethelossofDisasterswereresponsibleformorethan60perdisaster-relatedlife.Pre-emptiveevacuationsareeffectiveforacentoftheinternaldisplacementsrecordedbydisplacementssubsetofweather-relateddisasters,includingIDMCworldwidein2021andmorethan94perofchildrenfloods,stormsandwildfires.Formostevacuees,centofthoseweretheresultofweather-relatedtheirdisplacementisshorttermandtheycaneventssuchasfloodsandstorms.7203.Thehazardsreturnsafelytotheirhomes.Butifhousing04.Analysingorinfrastructurearedestroyed,thiscanleadInternaldisplacement:Whenpeopleareforcedtolonger-termdisplacement.IDMCincludestofleetheirhomesduetoarmedconflict,futureriskevacuationsinitsmonitoringofdisplacement.generalizedviolence,violationsofhumanrights,05.TakingactionTheeffectivenessofevacuationssavinglivesandornaturalorhuman-madedisasters,butremainmitigatingharmdependsonthecountry’searlywithintheirowncountry.73InternaldisplacementBACKTOwarningsystemsandDRRcapacities.ismeasuredaccordingtothenumberofinternallyCONTENTSdisplacedpeopleataspecificpointintimeWeather-relateddisasters:Asubgroupof(e.g.,theendoftheyear),orasthenumberof57disasterslinkedtoweather-relatedevents(e.g.,internaldisplacementevents,whichreferstofloods,storms,droughts,wildfires,landslidesthenumberofforcedmovementsofpeopleandextremetemperatures)thatcanleadwithinatimeperiod,usuallyayear.74Thenumbertodisplacement.IDMChascollectedgeo-ofdisplacementscannotbeequatedwiththeCHILDRENnumberofdisplacedpeople,asthesamepersoninfluencingthefrequency,intensity,geographicDISPLACEDcanbedisplacedmultipletimesbythesameorrange,durationandtimingofextremeweatherINACHANGINGdifferenteventsoverthecourseofayear.events.77Asaconsequence,noweatherisCLIMATEentirely‘natural’anymore,butratheroccursintheHazard:“Aprocess,phenomenonorhumancontextofachangingclimate.78Extremedisaster01.Thefacesofchildactivitythatmaycauselossoflife,injuryorevents,whichinthepastoccurredonlyoncedisplacementotherhealthimpacts,propertydamage,socialwithinaperiodofmanyyears,maynowoccurandeconomicdisruptionorenvironmentalmorefrequently.Forexample,between2015and02.Mappingdegradation”.75Hazardscanhavenaturalorigins2017,Houston,Texas,experiencedadisaster-related(e.g.,storms,earthquakes),canbepredominantly‘1-in-500years’floodthreeyearsinarow,causeddisplacementsrelatedtohumanactivities(e.g.,technologicalbyeventssuchasHurricaneHarveyin2017.79ofchildrenhazardssuchasnuclearradiationortoxicwaste)orcanbeacombinationofboth(e.g.,theresultDisasterdisplacementriskmodel:IDMC03.Thehazardsofenvironmentaldegradationandclimatedevelopedthedisasterdisplacementrisk04.Analysingchange).Inthisreport,wefocusonweather-modelin2017,basedontheUnitedNationsrelatedhazardssuchasfloods,storms,droughtsOfficeforDisasterRiskReduction(UNDRR)futureriskandwildfires.modelthatanalysestheriskofeconomic05.Takingactionlossesduetodisasters.TheriskmodelAverageannualdisplacement(AAD):Theuseslong-termclimatologicalandotherBACKTOaveragenumberofpeopleexpectedtobeenvironmentaldatatoidentifyareasatriskCONTENTSdisplacedeachyearconsideringalleventsthatofhazardsanddataonphysicalvulnerabilitycouldoccuroveranextendedtimeframe,as(suchasthelocationandqualityofbuildings)58estimatedbythedisplacementriskmodel.toestimatethenumberofhousesdestroyed.ThisreportprovidestheAADofchildrenThis,takentogetherwiththeaverageaggregatedoveraperiodof30years.AADhouseholdsize,makesitpossibletoestimateshouldbeconsideredasanindicatorofthethenumberofdisplacements.However,bothpotentialmagnitudeofdisplacement,notastheclimatologicalandenvironmentaldataandanexactvalue.76theinformationonthelocationandqualityofbuildingsrefertocurrentandhistoricClimatechangeanddisasters:Althoughsituations:thecurrentmodeldoesnottakeweather-relatedeventssuchasfloodsandintoaccounttheinfluenceofclimatechangestormsarenaturalphenomenaandasingleonthefrequencyandseverityoffuturehazardeventcannotnecessarilybedirectlylinkedtoevents.Nordoesitaccountfordemographicclimatechange,thereiswidespreadconsensuschanges(suchasthesizeoragestructureofthathuman-inducedclimatechangeispopulations,urbanizationormigration).80CHILDRENEndnotesDISPLACEDINACHANGING1IPCC,2023,SynthesisReport.AReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,p.16.CLIMATE2GlobalCentreforClimateMobility,2023,ClimateMobilityintheIPCC6thAssessmentReportFactsheet.3InternalDisplacementMonitoringCentre(IDMC),2023,GlobalInternalDisplacementDatabase(GIDD).01.Thefacesofchild4UNICEF,15December2022,PakistanHumanitarianSituationReportNo.8(Floods).displacement5UNICEF,2022,“WeDidn’tFindAnyEquipmentandAllSchoolbooksWereDestroyed”:EducationinemergenciesremainsUNICEF’sprioritythatensureschildren02.Mappingaffectedcanlearn.disaster-related6Ibid.displacements7Ibid.ofchildren8UNICEF,2019,ChildrenUprootedintheCaribbean:Howstrongerhurricaneslinkedtoachangingclimatearedrivingchilddisplacement,p.1.9SantiagoBilly/AFP-Services,UNICEFphotolibrary.03.Thehazards10IDMC,2019,DisasterDisplacement:Aglobalreview,2008–2018,p.8.04.Analysing11IDMC,2018,SynthesizingtheStateofKnowledgetoBetterUnderstandDisplacementRelatedtoSlowOnsetEvents,pp.2–3.12IDMC,2017,ReducingDisplacementRiskintheGreaterHornofAfrica:Abaselineforfuturework,pp.8–10.futurerisk13UNHCRandNRC,2022,OneMillionPeopleDisplacedbyDroughtinSomalia.05.Takingaction14UNICEF,2022,“ThereIsNoPlaceToComeBackTo”:DroughtanddisplacementinSomalia.15IDMC,2021,GlobalReportonInternalDisplacement:Internaldisplacementinachangingclimate,p.53.BACKTO16USAID,2022,AddressingtheClimateCrisisinSoutheastAsia:Aregionalapproach.CONTENTS17IDMC,2020,GlobalReportonInternalDisplacement,pp.8,14.18IDMC,2022,TheState-of-the-ArtonDroughtDisplacementModelling.5919IntegratedResearchonDisasterRisk,2014,‘PerilClassificationandHazardGlossary’.20NationalGeographic,‘Monsoon’.21IDMC,2021,ImpactsofDisplacement:FlooddisplacementinBeledweyne,Somalia,p.14.22IDMC,2021,‘FiguresAnalysis2021–SouthSudan’.23IntegratedResearchonDisasterRisk,2014,‘PerilClassificationandHazardGlossary’.24Mei,WeiandShang-PingXie,2016,‘IntensificationofLandfallingTyphoonsovertheNorthwestPacificSincetheLate1970s’,NatureGeoscience.25Takahashi,HiroshiG.,etal.,2020,‘ResponseoftheAsianSummerMonsoonPrecipitationtoGlobalWarminginaHigh-ResolutionGlobalNonhydrostaticModel’,JournalofClimate.26WorldMeteorologicalOrganization,2020,‘LaNiñaHasDeveloped,ElNiño/LaNiñaUpdate’.27IDMC,2021,GlobalReportonInternalDisplacement:Internaldisplacementinachangingclimate,p.50.28IDMC,2022,FloodDisplacementRisk:AssessmentforFijiandVanuatuincurrentandfutureclimatescenarios,p.8.29IDMC,2021,GlobalReportonInternalDisplacement:Internaldisplacementinachangingclimate.30IDMC,2018,‘Spotlight:TheAtlantichurricaneseasonandimportanceofresilience’,p.44.31Ibid.32IDMC,2021,GlobalReportonInternalDisplacement:Internaldisplacementinachangingclimate,p.31.33IDMC,2020,GlobalReportonInternalDisplacement,p.25.34IDMCandIOM,2019,EightMonthsAfterIdai:Chronologyofdisplacement,humanitarianneedsandchallengesgoingforwardinMozambique,pp.4,5.35IntegratedResearchonDisasterRisk,2014,‘PerilClassificationandHazardGlossary’.36SADC,2021,SynthesisReportontheStateofFoodandNutritionSecurityandVulnerabilityinSouthernAfrica,p.18.37IDMC,2019,AfricaReportonInternalDisplacement,p.19.38IDMC,2021,ImpactsofDisplacement–DroughtdisplacementinGodeWoreda,Ethiopia,p.4.CHILDREN39IDMC,2020,“NoLand,NoWater,NoPasture”.TheurbanizationofdroughtdisplacementinSomalia,p.5.DISPLACED40UNICEF,2021,ChildrenUprootedinaChangingClimate:Turningchallengesintoopportunitieswithandforyoungpeople,p.11.INACHANGING41IntegratedResearchonDisasterRisk,2014,‘PerilClassificationandHazardGlossary’.CLIMATE42Shepherd,Marshall,2018,‘HowUrbanizationMakesWildfiresandHurricanesWorse’,Forbes.43MichiganStateUniversity,2020,‘ResearchingLinkbetweenAmazonDeforestationandFires’.01.Thefacesofchild44IDMC,2021,GlobalReportonInternalDisplacement:Internaldisplacementinachangingclimate,p.62.displacement45DeMarco,Heidi,9September2022,KaiserHealthNews,‘ChildreninNorthernCaliforniaLearntoCopewithWildfireTrauma’.46Cart,Julie,2022,‘WelcometotheAgeofFire:Californiawildfiresexplained’.02.Mapping47CaliforniaDepartmentofHealthCareServices(DHCS)andOfficeoftheCaliforniaSurgeonGeneral,2022,ACEScreeningandClinicianTrainingData–Quarterlydisaster-relateddisplacementsProgressReport.ofchildren48IDMC,2019,‘DisplacementandHousingAffordabilityintheUnitedStates’.49GovernmentoftheUnitedStates,2022,FEMA,‘TransitionalShelteringAssistance’.03.Thehazards50GovernmentoftheUnitedStates,2019,FEMA,‘IndividualsandHouseholdsProgram(IHP)–HousingAssistance’.04.Analysing51IDMC,2021,GlobalReportonInternalDisplacement:Internaldisplacementinachangingclimate,p.52.52WorldBankGroup,2021,ClimateChangeKnowledgePortal–Nigeria.futurerisk53UNOfficeforDisasterRiskReduction,2020,GlobalAssessmentReportinDisasterRiskReduction–RiskDataPlatform.05.Takingaction54InstituteofDevelopmentStudies,2019,ClimateChangeinNigeria:Impactsandresponses,pp.21–22.55OCHA,2022,‘WestandCentralAfrica:Floodingsituation’.BACKTO56UNICEF,2022,‘FlashUpdate#2:Nigeria,emergencyfloodresponse’.CONTENTS57GovernmentofthePhilippines,‘StormSurge’.58UNOfficeforDisasterRiskReduction,2017,GlobalAssessmentReportinDisasterRiskReduction–RiskDataPlatform.6059GovernmentofthePhilippines,‘StormSurge’.60GovernmentofthePhilippines,2019,DROMIC,reportingguidelines.61HandicapInternational,2014,EmpowermentandParticipation:GoodpracticesfromSouth&South-EastAsiaindisabilityinclusivedisasterriskmanagement,p.15.62Germanwatch,2021,GlobalClimateRiskIndex,p.13.63UNOfficeforDisasterRiskReduction,2023,‘StabilityEludesClimateRefugeesinBangladesh’sSinkingCities’.64UNCERF,2020,BangladeshRapidResponseCycloneAmphan,p.6.65GovernmentofthePeople’sRepublicofBangladesh,CyclonePreparednessProgramme(CPP).Bangladesh66RedCrescentSociety,CyclonePrepardnessProgramme(CPP).67WorldBankGroup,2021,GroundswellAfrica:InternalClimateMigrationinWestAfricanCountries,p.xxvii.68IDMC,2022,FloodDisplacementrisk:AssessmentforFijiandVanuatuincurrentandfutureclimatescenarios,p.9.69IDMC,2021,GlobalReportonInternalDisplacement.70Goodwall,2022,YouthInnovationChallengeonClimateMobility.71ACMIYouthForum,2022,AfricanYouthDeclarationonClimateMobility.72IDMC,2022,GlobalReportonInternalDisplacement.73OCHA,1998,GuidingPrinciplesonInternalDisplacement.74IDMC,2022,GlobalReportonInternalDisplacement.75UNGeneralAssembly,2016,ReportoftheOpen-endedIntergovernmentalExpertWorkingGrouponIndicatorsandTerminologyrelatingtoDisasterRiskReduction:note/bytheSecretary-General.76IDMC2017,GlobalDisasterDisplacementRisk.77Field,ChristopherB.,etal.(eds.),2012,ManagingtheRisksofExtremeEventsandDisasterstoAdvanceClimateChangeAdaptation:SpecialReportofWorkingGroupsIandIIoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.78Hassol,SusanJoy,etal.,2016,‘(Un)NaturalDisasters:Communicatinglinkagesbetweenextremeeventsandclimatechange’.79Popovich,Nadja,andClaireO’Neill,2017,‘A“500-YearFlood”CouldHappenAgainSoonerThanYouThink.Here’swhy’,NewYorkTimes.80IDMCiscurrentlyworkingonexpandingitsmodeltoincludethosefactors.ChildrendisplacedinachangingclimateISBN:978-92-806-5497-4Coverphoto:©UNICEF/UN0372375/Ocon/AFP-Services©UnitedNationsChildren’sFund(UNICEF),2023www.unicef.org

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