IEF-2023年九月度石油和天然气数据审查【英文版】VIP专享VIP免费

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2023-10-06
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Monthly Oil & Gas Data Review

Energy Security Through Dialogue

ief.org 1

September 2023

Summary findings from the latest JODI oil & gas databases update

JODI Oil update by the numbers

51 countries updated the database with the most recent July 2023 data

101%

of July 2019 levels

Oil Demand

340

Million barrels below

the 5-year avg

Crude + Product

Stocks

96%

of July 2019 levels

Crude + NGL

Production

Oil Overview: Update with Data Through July 2023

•Oil demand in JODI-reporting countries fell by ~3 mb/d month-on-month in July but it

remained at a 5-year seasonal high.

• The m/m decline in demand was driven by China, India, and Indonesia.

• Despite the m/m decline, demand was up 3.4 mb/d y/y. The y/y gains were driven by China, US, and India.

•Gasoline demand was a 5-year seasonal high with Spain, Italy and Turkey seeing 8+ year high demand.

•China’s crude imports fell by 2.4 mb/d m/m to 10.3 mb/d – a 6-month low.

•Crude oil production fell by 1.8 mb/d in July to a 22-month low, driven by lower production

in Saudi Arabia, US, and China. Notably, Russian production data has not been reported

since March.

•Saudi crude production fell by 943 kb/d to 9.01 mb/d while its crude exports dropped by 792 kb/d to 6.01

mb/d – a 25-month low.

•Crude and refined product inventories had a net build in July, but they remained 340 mb

below the five-year average.

/23

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MonthlyOil&GasDataReviewEnergySecurityThroughDialogueief.org1September2023SummaryfindingsfromthelatestJODIoil&gasdatabasesupdateJODIOilupdatebythenumbers51countriesupdatedthedatabasewiththemostrecentJuly2023data2101%ofJuly2019levelsOilDemand340Millionbarrelsbelowthe5-yearavgCrude+ProductStocks96%ofJuly2019levelsCrude+NGLProductionOilOverview:UpdatewithDataThroughJuly2023•OildemandinJODI-reportingcountriesfellby~3mb/dmonth-on-monthinJulybutitremainedata5-yearseasonalhigh.•Them/mdeclineindemandwasdrivenbyChina,India,andIndonesia.•Despitethem/mdecline,demandwasup3.4mb/dy/y.They/ygainsweredrivenbyChina,US,andIndia.•Gasolinedemandwasa5-yearseasonalhighwithSpain,ItalyandTurkeyseeing8+yearhighdemand.•China’scrudeimportsfellby2.4mb/dm/mto10.3mb/d–a6-monthlow.•Crudeoilproductionfellby1.8mb/dinJulytoa22-monthlow,drivenbylowerproductioninSaudiArabia,US,andChina.Notably,RussianproductiondatahasnotbeenreportedsinceMarch.•Saudicrudeproductionfellby943kb/dto9.01mb/dwhileitscrudeexportsdroppedby792kb/dto6.01mb/d–a25-monthlow.•CrudeandrefinedproductinventorieshadanetbuildinJuly,buttheyremained340mbbelowthefive-yearaverage.3JODIGasupdatebythenumbers55countriesupdatedthedatabasewiththemostrecentJuly2023data4100%ofJuly2022levelsGasDemand30.0Billioncubicmetresabovethe5-yearavgGasStocks99%ofJuly2022levelsGasProductionGasOverview:UpdatewithDataThroughJuly2023•Naturalgasproductionroseseasonallyby3.1bcm.•Month-on-monthgainsweredrivenbyNorway(+2.2bcm)andQatar(+0.7bcm).•Russiangasproductionremainedlargelyflatmonth-on-monthat7-yearseasonallows.•Naturalgasdemandroseseasonallyby12.8bcminJulyandwasnearthetopofthe5-yearrange.•DemandgainsweredrivenbyUS,Canada,Japan,Egypt,andItaly.•EU+UKnaturalgasdemandroseby0.3bcmbutremainedbelowseasonalaveragelevels.•Totalgasinventoriesincreasedseasonallyby11.7bcmmonth-on-monthandremainednearthetopofthe5-yearrange.•EU+UKinventoriesroseby9.2bcminJulyandstoodaround85%fullattheendofthemonth.5OilHighlights6AggregatedfiguresusethetotalforcountriesthathavereporteddataeverymonthsinceJanuary2018OildemanddeclinedinJuly,butitwasstill3.4mb/daboveyearagolevels&ataseasonalrecordhighThem/mdeclinewasdrivenbyChina,India,andIndonesia750556065707580JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)OilProductDemand(43Countries)MillionBarrelsPerDaySource:IEF,JODIOilGasolinedemandwasata5-yearseasonalhighinJulywhiledieseldemanddippedbackintothe5-yearrange81112131415161718192021JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222022Avg(2018-2022)GasolineDemand(41Countries)MillionBarrelsPerDaySource:IEF,JODIOil1112131415161718192021JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)DieselDemand(39Countries)MillionBarrelsPerDaySource:IEF,JODIOilFueloilandLPGdemandwereabovethe5-yearrangeinJuly94.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)LPGDemand(34Countries)MillionBarrelsPerDaySource:IEF,JODIOil0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)FuelOilDemand(28Countries)MillionBarrelsPerDaySource:IEF,JODIOilJetfueldemandfellmarginallyinJulyandwasstill8%belowpre-COVIDlevels100.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)202020212022Avg(2018-2022)2023JetFuelDemand(30Countries)MillionBarrelsPerDaySource:IEF,JODIOilCrudeproductionfellby1.8mb/dtoa22-monthlowandwasdrivenbydeclinesinSaudiArabia,US,andChina113233343536373839404142JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)CrudeOilProduction(28Countries)MillionBarrelsPerDaySource:IEF,JODIOilCrudeinventoriesfellby12.8mbinJulywhileproductinventoriesroseby56mb1219002000210022002300240025002600JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)ClosingStocksforCrudeOil(33Countries)MillionBarrelsSource:IEF,JODIOil160017001800190020002100220023002400JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)ClosingStocksforTotalOilProducts(39Countries)MillionBarrelsSource:IEF,JODIOilIncludesapreliminaryestimateofa45.6mbbuildintheUSwhichdivergesfromtheUSweeklydatathatprovidesanestimateofa~16mbgainSaudicrudeproductionfellby943kb/dinJulywhilecrudeexportsdroppedby792kb/dtoa25-monthlow13678910111213JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)SaudiArabia:CrudeProductionMillionBarrelsPerDaySource:IEF,JODIOil4567891011JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)SaudiArabia:CrudeExportsMillionBarrelsPerDaySource:IEF,JODIOilChina’scrudeimportsfellby2.39mb/dwhiledemandfellby2.71mb/d1468101214161820JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)China:CrudeImportsMillionBarrelsPerDaySource:IEF,JODIOil68101214161820JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)China:TotalProductDemandMillionBarrelsPerDaySource:IEF,JODIOilChina’sproductexportsroseby169kb/ddrivenhigherdieselexports1505001000150020002500JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)China:TotalProductExportsThousandBarrelsPerDaySource:IEF,JODIOil0100200300400500600700800JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)China:DieselExportsThousandBarrelsPerDaySource:IEF,JODIOilGasolinedemandinSpainandItalyroseto8+yearhighs16020406080100120140160180200JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)Spain:GasolineDemandThousandBarrelsPerDaySource:IEF,JODIOil050100150200250300JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)Italy:GasolineDemandThousandBarrelsPerDaySource:IEF,JODIOilGasHighlights17AggregatedfiguresusethetotalforcountriesthathavereporteddataeverymonthsinceJanuary2018Gasproductionroseseasonallyby3.1bcmledbygainsinNorway18180190200210220230240250JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)NaturalGasProduction(30Countries)BillionCubicMetresSource:IEF,JODIGasRussiangasproductionremainedat7-yearseasonallowsinJuly194045505560657075JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)RussiaNaturalGasProductionBillionCubicMetresSource:IEF,JODIGasSource:IEF,JODIGasNaturalgasdemandroseseasonallyinJulyandwasnearthetopofthe5-yearrange120140160180200220240JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)NaturalGasGrossInlandDeliveries(45Countries)BillionCubicMetresSource:IEF,JODIGas20Naturalgasinventoriesbuiltseasonallyby11.7bcminJuly&remainednearthetopofthe5-yearrange050100150200250300JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)NaturalGasClosingStocks(29Countries)BillionCubicMetresSource:IEF,JODIGas21EU+UKgasdemandwasbelowtheseasonalaveragelevelsagaininJuly,helpinginventoriesendthemonthataround85%full2210203040506070JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)EU+UK:NaturalGasGrossInlandDeliveriesBillionCubicMetresSource:IEF,JODIGas020406080100120JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecRange(2018-2022)2020202120222023Avg(2018-2022)EU+UK:NaturalGasClosingStocksBillionCubicMetresSource:IEF,JODIGasTheGlobalHomeofEnergyDialogueief.orgTheGlobalHomeofEnergyDialogueief.org23

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