1InstitutionalResearchGroupAnalysisPitchBookData,Inc.JohnGabbertFounder,CEONizarTarhuniVicePresident,InstitutionalResearchandEditorialDanielCook,CFAHeadofQuantitativeResearchContentsPublishedonSeptember22,2023PublishingDesignedbyChloeLadwigKeytakeaways1Introduction2Financialreturnpotential3Environmentalandsocialimpactpotential5PitchBookisaMorningstarcompanyprovidingthemostcomprehensive,mostaccurate,andhard-to-finddataforprofessionalsdoingbusinessintheprivatemarkets.HowtransittechcancreateadoublebottomlineoffinancialreturnsandpositivesocialandenvironmentalimpactEmergingSustainableInvestingOpportunities:TransitTechKeytakeaways•Inanefforttoboostpublictransitridershipnumbers,governmentsareincreasinglyturningtotransittechtohelpimprovebothaccesstoandtheexperienceofmasstransportation.•Thefinancialreturnpotentialofthisopportunityisunderpinnedbyagrowingend-userbase,governmentsupportintheformofpartnershipsandregulatorycooperation,anduserstickiness.•Transittechhasthepotentialtocreatepositiveenvironmentalimpactsintheareasofclimatechangeandpollutionmitigationandecosystemharmprevention,aswellassocialimpactsintermsofhumanhealthandeconomicmobility.AnikkaVillegasAnalyst,FundStrategies&SustainableInvestinganikka.villegas@pitchbook.comDataAlyssaWilliamsSeniorDataAnalystpbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.comInsightsdevelopedincollaborationwithJonathanGeurkink,Sr.Analyst,EmergingTechnologyatPitchBookData.2EmergingSustainableInvestingOpportunities:TransitTechIntroductionVenturecapital,oftenservingastheincubatorofemergingtechnologies,iswell-positionedtoinvestwithpositivesocialandenvironmentalimpactgoalsinmind.Venturecapitalistscanutilizetheirexpertiseandresourcestofosterthebusinessesthathavethegreatestpotentialforbothimpactandreturns,especiallywhenkeepinganeyetocompaniesforwhichsuccessnecessarilymarriesthetwo.Thisfacthasnotgoneunnoticedbyventurecapitalists,whichcomprise42.7%ofthetotalcountofimpactfundsraisedsince2007.1Yet,thelandscapeofprospectiveopportunitiesisexpansiveandrapidlyevolving,makingitdifficulttokeeptrackofwhichhavethegreatestfinancial—andimpact—returnpotential.Emergingopportunitiesoftengobeyondtheinvestmentareastraditionallyassociatedwithsustainability,suchassolarenergyorelectricvehicles,encompassingahostoflesser-knowntechnologies.Evenwithinthefamiliarthemes,therearenicheinvestmentopportunitiesdeveloping.Inthisanalystnoteseries,wesurfaceopportunitiesacrossemergingtechnologyverticalssuchasfoodtech,mobilitytech,andcarbon&emissionstechthatwebelievearepoisedtoperformwellwithinthenextdecade,frombothafinancial-returnandanimpact-returnperspective.Indoingso,wehopetohelpguideventurecapitalistspursuingthe“doublebottomline”throughthecomplexlandscapetothemostfruitfulopportunities.Foreachanalystnoteintheseries,insightsaredevelopedincollaborationwithaPitchBookEmergingTechnologyAnalystcoveringtherelevantvertical,usingtheirsubjectmatterexpertiseandpreviousresearch,aswellassomeexternalresources,toinformourperspectiveonthespace.Wediscussthereturnpotentialoftheopportunityanditsmajordrivers,aswellastheinvestmentrisksandobstaclesitfaces.Wealsoexploreitssocialandenvironmentalimpactpotential,howtheopportunityfitsintovariousIRIS+Impactthemes,2andpotentialmetricstohelpquantifythoseimpacts.Ultimately,theaimofthisresearchistogiveventurecapitalistsandtheirLPsabetterunderstandingofhowtheopportunitiesaligntotheirreturnandsustainabilitygoalsandprovidecompaniesoperatinginthesespacesasenseofhowtooptimizeandcommunicatetheirsocialandenvironmentalimpact.Thisanalystnotefocusesontransittech,whichencompassesdigitaldispatchappsanddigitalplanning,scheduling,androuteoptimizationsoftware,aswellasothertech-enabledsolutionscreatedtohelpaddresspublictransportationchallenges.3Masstransit,intheformofbuses,lightrails,subways,andferries,amongothers,isnotanewphenomenon.However,asconsumerpreferenceshaveshiftedtowardsingle-occupancyvehiclesinmanymetropolitanareas—particularlyintheUS—publictransitagenciesandoperatorshavesoughttoimproveridershipthroughnewtechnologies.Since2013,61VC-backedcompanieshaveenteredthetransittechspace,with$5.3billionininvestment.1:Formoreimpactfundraisingdata,checkoutourQ42022AnalystNote:ImpactInvestingUpdate.2:TheImpactReportingandInvestingStandards(IRIS+)framework,createdbytheGlobalImpactInvestingNetwork(GIIN),isanindustry-leadingmethodologyaidinginvestorsinsortingimpactinvestmentsbythedifferenttypesofimpacttheyaretargeting.YoucanlearnmoreabouttheIRIS+categories,whattheyinclude,andwhattheydonot,in“IRIS+ThematicTaxonomy,”GlobalImpactInvestingNetwork,April2023.3:ReadmoreabouttransittechopportunitiesinourQ12023AnalystNote:TransitTechTransformsPublicTransportation3EmergingSustainableInvestingOpportunities:TransitTechFinancialreturnpotentialInsomegeographies,particularlyintheUS,single-occupantvehicleshavebecomethestandardmodeoftransportation.Ridersareprioritizingcomfort,convenience,reliability,andprivacy,andthetradeoffstheymustmaketousepublictransportationseeminglyoutweighitsdirectbenefits.Forcitiesandtheiroccupants,thisisaproblem,ashighernumbersofsingle-occupantvehiclescontributetoheavytraffic,carbonemissions,andhigheraccidentrates,amongotherundesirableoutcomes.AspublictransitridershipnumbershavefailedtofullyrecoverfollowingthepeakoftheCOVID-19pandemic,localgovernmentsandconstituentsarelookingtotransittechtoimproveaccesstoandtheexperienceofmasstransportation.Thereturnpotentialoftransittechismoderatetohighatpresent,butwilllikelyimprovefurtherinthenextdecade.Therearethreecentralfactorscontributingtoitsreturnpotential.First,ithasagrowingend-userbase,whichwillcontinuetoscale.Thenumberofpublictransportationusersworldwideispredictedtoamountto4.5billionby2027.4IntheUS,whereridershipislaggingcomparedwithotherdevelopedcountries,younger,climate-consciousconstituentsarecomingofageandaremorelikelytousepublictransitnowandinthefuture.GenerationZAmericansaregettingtheirdriver’slicenseslaterandlater,5andmillennialsaredrivingfewermilesthanmembersofGenerationXandbabyboomers.6Furthermore,ontheglobalscale,anincreasingproportionofthepopulationhasgrownupwiththeinternetandmobilephoneapps,makingthemmoretechsavvyandreceptivetotechusedfordigitalmultimodalbooking,tripplanning,andrideshares.Asashorter-termboon,apotentialrecessionandlooseningofthelabormarketislikelytobenefitridership,asbothvariable-routepassengerpoolingtechnologiesandfixed-routeservicessuchastraditionalbusroutesaremoreeconomicalforriders.4:“PublicTransportation–Worldwide,”Statista,August2023.5:“TheOldest(andYoungest)StatesandtheShrinkingNumberofTeenagerswithLicenses,”TheWashingtonPost,AndrewVanDam,January13,2023.6:“GenerationalTravelPatternsintheUnitedStates:NewInsightsfromEightNationalTravelSurveys,”ScienceDirect,MingZhangandYangLi,February2022.Source:PitchBook•Geography:GlobalAsofAugust21,2023$0.0$0.0$0.2$0.4$0.5$0.3$1.0$0.5$1.7$0.5$0.212162722252530254026820132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Dealvalue($M)DealcountTransittechVCdealactivity4EmergingSustainableInvestingOpportunities:TransitTechSecond,companiesinthetransittechspaceofteneithergeneratebusinessthroughgovernmentpartnerships—similartothewayprivate-marketinfrastructuredevelopersdo—orbenefitsignificantlyfromregulatorycooperation.Forexample,ViaTransportationhaspartneredwithTransportforLondon,7KingCountyMetroinSeattle,8andTransportforNewSouthWalesinAustraliatoprovideitstransittechservicestoresidents.9Governmentappetitefortransittechpartnershipisconsiderableandlikelytoremainso,inlargepartbecauseimprovedridershipwillbeneededtoaccomplishclimate-change-relatedgoals.Ascompetitionforminedandnonrenewableelectric-vehivle(EV)batterymaterialsincreases,productionwillbecomemoreexpensive,likelyprohibitivelyso,makingafulltransitiontoEVsimprobableinthenextfewdecades.Governmentsareexpectedtoincreasinglyinvestinpublictransit,whichhasunmatchedresourceefficiency,toreducecarbonemissions,thusbolsteringdemandfortransittech.Forexample,thepassageoftheUSBipartisanInfrastructureLawinlate2021authorizedupto$108billionforpublictransportationinvestmentintheUS,withfourkeyprioritiesofimprovingsafety,modernization,sustainability,andequity.10Third,forthemainplayers,whichwilltypicallybethosethathaveestablishedgovernmentpartnerships,userstickinesswillnotonlybesubstantialbutwillincreaseastimegoeson.Inpart,thisisbecausecontinuedtrendsofdigitizationandprogresstowardsmartcitieswillimprovethequalityoftransittechthroughmoreabundantandbetter-qualitydataandinterconnectedness,improvinguserexperience.Transittechmayalsobecomepartofcityorcountyplanning,withsomeruralareasalreadyintegratingit,enablingresidentstoliveinpreviouslycar-centriccommunities,suchasthoseinSummitCounty,Utah,withoutavehicle,asmentionedinourQ12023AnalystNote:TransitTechTransformsPublicTransportation.Shouldtransit-tech-enabled,car-freecommunitiesbecomemorepopular,providerswouldbesupplyingindispensableservicesforresidentswhootherwisewouldnothavetransporttowork,school,orhealthcarefacilities,makingthemfirmlyentrenched.Ontheothersideoftheequation,therisklevelofthisopportunityismoderatebutexpectedtodecreaseslightlyoverthenext10yearsaswinnersemerge.Therearetwokeyriskscontributingtothisassessment.Thefirstiscompetitiverisk.Thefactorsthatmakeforuserstickinessandcreateentrenchedplayersalsomakeitdifficulttodisruptthemarketoncekeyplayersdomaterialize.Plus,marketentrantshavetocontendnotonlywithotherstartupsbutalsowithestablishedfirmslikeAppleorGoogleiftheychoosetodevelopcompetingproducts.Assuch,businessesenteringthemarketwillneedtofocusondifferentiatingtheirproductsandestablishingcustomerand/orend-userrelationshipsearlyon.Thelongerstandingtheserelationshipsare,thelesslikelythecompanyistobedisplaced,soriskshoulddecreaseinthenextdecadeforexistingplayers.7:“TransportforLondonAwardsViawithMulti-YearContracttoTransformAccessibleTransport,”Via,August7,2023.8:“ViatoTransitCelebratesThreeYearsofProvidingKingCountywithEfficient,EquitableOn-DemandPublicTransportation,”Via,April28,2022.9:Ibid.10:“BipartisanInfrastructureLaw,”FederalTransitAdministration,July24,2023.5EmergingSustainableInvestingOpportunities:TransitTechThesecondriskisvulnerabilitytopoliticaloreconomicshiftsreducinggovernmentwillingnesstospendontransittechanddiminishingregulatorycooperativeness.ThisriskismostmaterialincountriesliketheUSthatarepronetolargeswingsfromoneendofthepoliticalspectrumtotheother,whichcaninfluencefederalfunding,aswellasthosewithlesscapitaltocommittopublicworksprojectsingeneral.Still,intheUS,therecentspendingenvironmentandpoliticalclimatehavebeenfriendlytothesetechnologiesandrelatedsectors,withbountifulfederalfundingformobilityandinfrastructure.Furthermore,evenifgovernmentspendingslows,mostmetropolitanareasindevelopedcountrieshavealreadymadeinvestmentsinpublictransportationinfrastructure;so,thefundamentalstructuresuponwhichtransittechcompaniesoftenrelytooperatetheirbusinessesorprovidetheirservicesalreadyexist,eveniftheyarenotstate-of-the-art.Thisscenarioislessriskythanoneinwhichcompaniesbroadlyrelyongovernmentstobuildthosestructurestomaketheirproductsorservicesviable.EnvironmentalandsocialimpactpotentialRelevantIRIS+Categories11AirClimateDiversity&inclusionEducationHealthPollutionTransittechhasamoderatepositiveenvironmentalimpactpotentialatpresent,whichwilllikelyexpandtoamoderate-to-highlevelofpotentialimpactwithinthenextdecadeasadoptionincreasesandtechnologyisrefined.Therearetwocentralenvironmentalimpactopportunitiesthatarisewithinthespace.First,byreducingthenumberofsingle-occupantvehiclesonroadsandintraffic,transittechcanhelpalleviateecosystemharmduetopoorairquality.Automobilesproduceandreleasesulfurdioxideandnitrogenoxidesintotheatmosphere.Bothcontributetotheprecipitationofacidrain,andnitrogenpromotestheeutrophicationofbodiesofwater.1211:“IRIS+ThematicTaxonomy,”GlobalImpactInvestingNetwork,April2023.12:“Health&EnvironmentalEffectsofAirPollution,”DepartmentofEnvironmentalProtection,n.d.,accessedSeptember8,2023.6EmergingSustainableInvestingOpportunities:TransitTechAirpollutionfromvehiclesalsoincreasestheambientlevelsofairtoxics.Thiscancausecancersaswellasneurological,cardiovascular,respiratory,reproductive,andimmunesystemdamage,notonlytowildlifebutalsotohumans.13Assuch,transittechtiesintoasocialhuman-healthimpactaswell.Plants,includingcrops,canalsobeharmedbyairpollution,whichcanclogleavesandaffectphotosynthesis.14Morecities,includingLondon,Stockholm,andMilan,havebeenimplementingcongestionpricingtoimproveairqualityandmitigateotherenvironmentalimpactsoftrafficandpollutioninrecentyears.15Asinitiativeslikethesepopularize,theenvironmentalandsocialeffectsofimprovedairqualitycomingfromtransittechwillbeamplifiedaswould-bedriversareincentivizedtousepublictransit.Second,transittechcanhelpmitigateclimatechange.Approximately40%oftheglobalcarbondioxideemissionsproducedbythetransportationsectorcomefrompassengercars.16Persinglepassenger,carsemitbetween57and322gramsofcarbondioxideequivalent,whilebusesemit22to92grams,andtrainsemitsixto118grams.17Masstransitisnecessarytocurbtransportationemissions,andimprovingridershipisintegraltothatgoal.Transittechsolutionsspecificallyfocusedonlow-carbontransportation,suchasEVvanpoolingridesharesolutions,magnifythesepositiveenvironmentaleffects.Asthenumberofcarbon-neutralvehiclescomingtothemarketclimbs,theenvironmentalimpactpotentialofthisopportunitywillincrease.Technologicaldevelopmentswillalsoplayarole.Whileelectricbusescurrentlyexist,theyfacerangeandbatterylimitations,aswellasotherperformanceissues,whichhaveresultedinsomecitiesadopting,thenretiring,them.18Inthesamevein,route-optimizationsoftwareandmultimodalbookingplatformswillworkinconcerttomaketravelmoreefficient,maximizingpositiveenvironmentalimpact.19Intermsofsocialimpact,therearethreedimensionstotransittech’spositiveeffects.Itspresentsocialimpactpotentialismoderatebutwillincreaseslightlyinthenext10yearsduetomoreusersandbettertechnology.First,therearetheaforementionedpositivehealthimpactsassociatedwithimprovedairquality.Thesecondsocialimpactopportunityalsorelatestohumanhealth,andspecifically,vehicleaccidentprevention.Researchhasfoundthatbusesareapproximately10timessaferpermilethantravelbycar,whilerailis18timessaferbytrafficcasualtyrate.20So,gettingdriversoffthestreetandontobusesandtrainsbenefitsnotonlythoseindividualsbutalsopedestrians.Thisimpactmaybediminishedifdangerouslast-milemobilitysolutionslikee-scootersarebeingusedmorefrequentlyduetotransittech.2113:“ResearchonHealthEffects,Exposure,&RiskfromMobileSourcePollution,”EPA,February22,2021.14:“ReviewingtheImpactofVehicularPollutiononRoad-SidePlants—FuturePerspectives,”ProQuest,MuthuManikandan,etal.,May3,2021.15:“5CitieswithCongestionPricing,”SmartCitiesDive,JoePeach,n.d.,accessedSeptember8,2023.16:“DistributionofCarbonDioxideEmissionsProducedbyTheTransportationSectorWorldwidein2021,bySubsector,”Statista,IanTiseo,August29,2023.17:“GHGIntensityofPassengerTransportModes,2019,”IEA,May27,2020.18:“EVFutureinPittsburghCloudedbyProblems,BothMechanicalandRiders,”TheCenterSquare,AnthonyHennen,September28,2022.19:“DigitallyDrivenMultimodalityCanSuperchargeSustainableGrowthofEuropeanPassengerMobility,”Kearney,PabloEscutiaLopezandJoseCantera,November28,2022.20:“DangerousStreets?TaketheBus,”Bloomberg,AndrewSmall,September11,2018.21:“InjuryRatesPerMileofTravelForElectricScootersVersusMotorVehicles,”NationalLibraryofMedicine,KevinRix,etal.,October27,2020.COPYRIGHT©2023byPitchBookData,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedinanyformorbyanymeans—graphic,electronic,ormechanical,includingphotocopying,recording,taping,andinformationstorageandretrievalsystems—withouttheexpresswrittenpermissionofPitchBookData,Inc.Contentsarebasedoninformationfromsourcesbelievedtobereliable,butaccuracyandcompletenesscannotbeguaranteed.Nothinghereinshouldbeconstruedasinvestmentadvice,apast,currentorfuturerecommendationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranoffertosell,orasolicitationofanoffertobuyanysecurity.Thismaterialdoesnotpurporttocontainalloftheinformationthataprospectiveinvestormaywishtoconsiderandisnottoberelieduponassuchorusedinsubstitutionfortheexerciseofindependentjudgment.7EmergingSustainableInvestingOpportunities:TransitTechThefinalsocialimpactopportunitycomesfromthesocioeconomicimpactsofpublictransit.Techthatfacilitatesflexible,on-demandridershipimproveslow-incomeandunderservedcommunities’connectednesstobetter-payingjobsinwealthierareas,schools,andcommunityorganizations,aswellashealthcareservices.Accesstothoseopportunitiesandresourceshasintergenerationaleffectsonhealthoutcomesandeconomicmobility,which,whiledifficulttocalculateindirectrelationtotransittech,arefarfromnegligible.Implementationoftransittechsolutionsinlow-income,historicallyunderservedneighborhoodswouldthenhavegreatersocialimpact.Theonlyothermajorthreatstothesepositiveoutcomesareadoptionrisk,ascost-prohibitivepricingofservicesmayprecludetheintendedeffectofincreasingridership,andrisksrelatedtogovernmentwillingnesstospendontransittech,asdiscussedintheFinancialReturnPotentialsection.Potentialimpactmetrics22•Numberofridersorusers•Numberofridersoruserslocatedinlow-incomecommunities•TonsofCO2emissionspreventedbyridestakenorbookedbyridersoruserscomparedwithstandardcartransit•TonsofCO2emissionspreventedbyridestakenorbookedbyridersoruserscomparedwithstandardpublictransitofferingsabsenttheserviceprovided•Numberofridesprovidedorbookedusingservicesthatuseelectricvehiclesorothersustainabletransportationalternatives22:AsdiscussedinourQ12022AnalystNote:ESG,Impact,andGreenwashinginPEandVC,someGPsandLPsconsidermeasurementanecessarycomponentofanimpactinvestmentprogram.Thefollowingmetricscanbeusedtoquantifythepositivesocialandenvironmentalimpactsdiscussedinthereport,includingbycompaniespitchingtheirpositiveimpactstosustainability-orientedGPsandGPscollectingimpactmetricsontheirportfoliosforinternaltrackingandmonitoring,amongothers.Ofnote,thesemetricsaretailoredtothespecificopportunitydiscussed,andassuch,someofthemwillnotaggregatemeaningfullyattheLPportfoliolevel.Youcanreadmoreabouttheuseofcustomizedversusstandardizedmetricsin“AssessingComparability:TheIndicatorsDilemma,”EVPA,GianlucaGaggiottietal.,September12,2023.