Table1DataofcarbonemissionpredictioninChinafrom2005to2050.TotalGDP(hundredmillionCNY)GDPpercapita低增速情境基准高增速情境低增速情境基准高增速情境LEG情境HEGLEG情境HEGREFREF2005184937.37184937.37184937.371307561.41441.41441.41441.27610.6372006208381.02208381.02208381.021314481.58531.58531.58531.24140.6372007237892.76237892.76237892.761321291.80051.80051.80051.17910.6372008260812.94260812.94260812.941328021.96391.96391.96391.11750.6372009284844.76284844.76284844.761334502.13452.13452.13451.07650.6372010314602.46314602.46314602.461340912.34622.34622.34621.03290.6372011343860.13343860.13343860.131347352.55212.55212.55211.0120.6372012370173.8370173.8370173.81354042.73382.73382.73380.97720.6372013396552.01399156.01403173.611360722.91432.93342.96290.9440.6372014421162.75426712.12435345.27135569.33.10663.14763.21120.91190.6372015450886.87459827.71473852.76136151.33.31173.37733.48030.88090.6372016482580.33495381.38515629.05136699.43.53023.62393.7720.85090.6372017516347.61533524.98560921.24137208.83.76323.88844.08810.8220.6372018552295.16574415.75609990.24137674.64.01164.17234.43070.7940.6372019590529.03618214.05663108.88138091.44.27644.47684.8020.7670.6372020631159.17665087.88720567.11138454.54.55864.80375.20440.7410.6372021666729.32703236.73773525.26138764.14.80485.06795.57440.70840.6372022704034.72743289.35830057.98139021.25.06425.34665.97070.67720.6372023743137.21785316.45890374.62139224.45.33775.64076.39520.64740.6372024784096.45829386.61954690.62139371.95.62595.95096.850.61890.6372025826983.19875580.471023244.13139463.95.92976.27827.3370.59170.6372026871875.28923986.441096292.27139501.56.24996.62357.85860.56560.6372027918855.1974698.081174109.02139486.16.58746.98788.41740.54080.6372028968016.421027821.391256994.93139420.36.94327.37219.01590.5170.63720291019458.71083468.811345271.21139306.87.31817.77769.65690.49420.63720301073293.091141765.611439288.82139149.17.71338.205310.34350.47250.63720311119995.3311971481508815.4138951.18.06048.615610.85860.45170.63720321168418.221254882.221581278.98138716.48.42319.046411.39940.43180.63720331218639.841315082.571656821.9138448.68.80219.498711.96710.41280.63720341270739.41377866.551735590.3138150.89.19829.973612.5630.39460.63720351324795.851443353.231817732.49137825.59.612110.472313.18870.37730.637203613808891511664.621903399.97137474.810.044710.995913.84540.36070.63720371439099.051582925.121992747.41137100.410.496711.545714.53490.34480.63720381499511.481657267.032085939.1136704.110.96912.12315.25880.32960.63720391562214.161734827.42183145.56136287.511.462612.729216.01870.31510.63720401627295.981815746.72284540.98135851.911.978513.365616.81640.30130.63720411677003.411891117.042358878.44135398.112.385713.967117.42180.28440.637表12005-2050年中国碳排放量预测数据年份YearGDP总量（亿元）总人口数（万）人均GDP（万元）能源强度（吨/万元）碳排放强度（吨/吨）Totalpopulation(104)EnergyintensityCarbonemissions(104CNY)(tons10-4CNY-1)intensity(tonstons-1)20421727977.971969329.642435280.75134926.212.806814.595618.0490.26850.63720431780223.32050455.972513764.16134434.913.242315.252418.69870.25340.63720441833738.962134564.242594339.32133922.813.692515.938819.37190.23920.63720451888531.342221731.992677026.56133389.214.158116.65620.06930.22580.63720461944603.352312034.192761841.37132833.314.639417.405520.79180.21320.63720472001953.932405542.612848793.68132254.215.137218.188821.54030.20130.63720482060583.882502332.542937896.09131651.315.651819.007322.31570.190.63720492120494.752602481.663029162.36131024.216.18419.862623.11910.17940.63720502181682.512706062.233122598.2130372.316.734220.756423.95140.16930.637技术因素人均碳排放量（吨）碳排放总量（百万吨）Percapitacarbonemissions(tons)低增速基准高增速低增速基准高增速情境情境情境情境情境情境LEGREFHEGLEGREFHEG1.06011.21871.21871.21871593.621593.621593.621.05131.31771.31771.31771732.261732.261732.261.04261.40981.40981.40981862.871862.871862.871.03391.44521.44521.44521919.461919.461919.461.02531.50071.50071.50072002.82002.82002.81.01681.56941.56941.56942104.652104.652104.651.00841.65891.65891.65892235.332235.332235.3311.70161.70161.70162304.232304.232304.230.99171.76671.74911.73772404.22380.242364.710.98351.83431.79791.77452486.962437.652405.940.97531.90451.84811.81222593.22516.452467.520.96721.97731.89971.85062703.262597.1125300.95922.0531.95271.88992817.152679.552593.280.95122.13152.00721.92992934.872763.72657.280.94332.21312.06331.97093056.382849.452721.850.93552.29782.12092.01273181.672936.72786.890.92772.33332.12132.01123238.122943.882791.050.922.36942.12182.00973294.312949.952794.160.91242.40612.12222.00823350.182954.882796.170.90482.44332.12262.00673405.622958.632797.060.89732.48112.12312.00523460.592961.22796.840.88992.51952.12352.00383515.082962.612795.530.88252.55852.1242.00233569.082962.912793.150.87522.59812.12442.00083622.592962.132789.770.86792.63832.12491.99933675.652960.332785.440.86072.67912.12531.99783728.292957.62780.230.85352.66652.11571.97933705.412940.012750.530.84652.65392.10611.9613681.692921.742720.430.83942.64132.09651.94283657.232902.8926900.83252.62892.0871.92483632.142883.522659.330.82562.61652.07761.90693606.482863.692628.470.81872.60412.06821.88923580.322843.462597.470.81192.59182.05881.87173553.712822.862566.380.80522.57962.04951.85443526.712801.952535.230.79852.56742.04021.83723499.362780.752504.070.79192.55532.03091.82013471.712759.32472.920.78532.47831.98681.76193355.852690.392385.78TechnicalfactorsTotalcarbonemissions(106tons)0.77882.40361.94371.70553243.382622.812301.370.77232.33121.90151.65093134.192556.532219.610.76592.26091.86021.59813028.172491.512140.380.75952.19281.81991.54692925.222427.712063.620.75322.12671.78041.49742825.252365.121989.250.7472.06261.74171.44952728.172303.691917.190.74082.00051.70391.40312633.92243.411847.370.73461.94021.66691.35822542.362184.251779.720.72851.88171.63071.31472453.492126.211714.19