1TowardsZeroEmissionsChina’sClimatePathwayanditsImplicationsfortheTransportSectorImplementedbySupportedby2ImprintAsafederallyownedenterprise,GIZsupportstheGermanGovernmentinachievingitsobjectivesinthefieldofinternationalcooperationforsustainabledevelopment.Publishedby:DeutscheGesellschaftfürInternationaleZusammenarbeit(GIZ)GmbHRegisteredofficesBonnandEschborn,GermanyAddressTayuanDiplomaticOfficeBuilding2-514LiangmaheSouthStreet,ChaoyangDistrict100600,Beijing,PRChinaT+86-(0)10-85275589F+86-(0)10-85275591Etransition-china@giz.deIwww.mobility.transition-china.orgProjectNDCTransportInitiativeforAsia(NDC-TIA)ispartoftheInternationalClimateInitiative(IKI)andissupportedbytheFederalMinistryfortheEnvironment,NatureConservationandNuclearSafety(BMU)ResponsibleSebastianIbold(GIZ)Etransition-china@giz.deIwww.mobility.transition-china.orgAuthorsSebastianIbold,YunXiaLayoutXinHu,LangLiuPhotocreditsShutterstock/Mindscanner(FrontCover)Shutterstock/DavidDennis(Backcover)MapsThemapsprintedhereareintendedonlyforinformationpurposesandinnowayconstituterecognitionunderinternationallawofboundariesandterritories.GIZacceptsnoresponsibilityforthesemapsbeingentirelyuptodate,correctorcomplete.Allliabilityforanydamage,directorindirect,resultingfromtheiruseisexcluded.URLlinksResponsibilityforthecontentofexternalwebsiteslinkedinthispublicationalwayslieswiththeirrespectivepublishers.GIZexpresslydissociatesitselffromsuchcontent.Beijing,20213ContentsBackground1China’sclimatepathway2China’scurrenttransportsectordevelopment9KeypoliciesforChina’stransportsectordevelopment13Recommendations17Transportemissionpeakinganddecarbonizationstrategies17Aligningthetransitioninthetransportandenergysectors18TheFourNows!19Internationalcooperation214SinceChina’sannouncementinlate2020thatitwouldpeakitscarbondioxideemissionsby2030andattaincarbonneutralityby2060,thedebateonhowtodecarbonizethetransportsectorhasbeenheatingup.Givengrowingdemandforpassengerandfreighttransportandrisingmotorization,thesectorwillbeahardnuttocrack.Variousdecarbonizationtechnologiesarealreadyonthetable.Amongthemostpromisingsolutionsforreducingemissionsandincreasingefficiencyiselectrictransportpoweredbycleanenergy.Butthepathtozero-carbonfreight,aviation,andmaritimetransportwillbedifficult.InordertoaligntheChinesetransportsectorwiththecountry’s2030and2060targets,clearstrategiesandambitiousmeasuresareneeded.Thisincludesnotonlytheadoptionofinnovativetechnologiesbutalsoanacceleratedshifttoclimate-friendlytransportmodesandastrongerfocusontripavoidancethroughholisticurbanplanning.Atthesametime,itmustbeensuredthatsectortransformationleavesnoonebehindandremainssociallyandeconomicallysustainable.Internationalcooperation,thesharingofexpertise,andin-depthdialoguecanpositivelycontributetothesustainableandclimate-friendlydevelopmentofthetransportsector–inChinaandelsewhere.ThispaperprovidesageneraldescriptionoftheroleofthetransportsectorinachievingChina’scarbonpeakingandneutralitygoals.Inaddition,itaimstofosterdebateonthepolicies,technologies,measures,andpartnershipsneededtoachievethoseobjectives.Thisdiscussionisnotexhaustive,however.ItfocusesonjustafewapproachesandmeasuresthatcanhelpachieveChina’stargets.1BackgroundOverthepastfewdecades,thePeople’sRepublicofChina(PRC)hasundergonearapidandcomprehensivesocio-economictransformation.Withthistransformationhavecomenewindustries,cities,andinfrastructure,aswellastheeradicationofabsolutepoverty1.UrbanizationhasplayedakeyroleinChina’sdevelopment.Inthepast20yearsalone,China’surbanpopulationhasgrownbyabout390millionpeople.Bytheendof2019,thecountry’surbanizationlevelhadreached60.6%.Duringthesame20-yearperiod,China’sgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)grewfrom1trillioneurosto13.1trillioneuros.ThedraftofChina’s14thFive-YearPlan(2021–2025)2,whichwasapprovedduringtheTwoSessions(两会)3inMarch2021,setsanurbanizationtargetof65%fortheendof2025.Thismeansthatinthenextfiveyearsaloneanother69millionpeoplewillrelocatetocities(seeFigure1).Figure1.DevelopmentofChina’surbanpopulationSource:GIZ1Seehttp://english.www.gov.cn/archive/statistics/202102/26/content_WS603858f0c6d0719374af99ab.html2Seetheoutlineofthe14thFive-YearPlanandlong-rangeobjectivesfor2035.3The“twosessions”refertotheannualplenarysessionsofChina’sNationalPeople’sCongressNPCandtheChinesePeople’sNationalConsultativeConferenceCPPCC.2China’sclimatepathwayChina’seconomicgrowthandurbanizationhavebroughtenvironmentalproblemsandhighcarbonemissions.Today,Chinaistheworld’slargestemitterofgreenhousegases(GHG).The10.5GtofCO2itreleasedin2018accountsforaboutone-thirdofglobalemissions(Figure2)4.ClimatechangeisakeychallengeforChinabecausealargepartofitspopulationisconcentratedalongthecoastline,whichisvulnerabletorisingsealevelsaswellasharvestandfoodinsecuritycausedbyextremeweather.Increasingly,climaterisksarepushingChinatoadoptasustainable,low-carbondevelopmentpathway.Thepathway’sgoalistobuilda“BeautifulChina”5bythemiddleofthe21stcenturywhilealsocontinuingtheurbanizationprocess,strikingabalancebetweenurbanandruraldevelopment,andattendingtothecountry’sagingpopulation.Figure2.AnnualtotalCO2emissions,byworldregionSource:OurWorldinData,basedontheGlobalCarbonProject4SeeChinaAcademyofTransportationSciences(CATS).5TheCommunistPartyofChina(CPC)hasincorporatedtheideaofa“BeautifulChina”inits“two-stagedevelopmentplan”.Inthefirststage,from2020to2035,Chinaaimstoachieve“socialistmodernization”.Inthesecondstage,from2035tothemiddleofthe21stcentury,Chinaaimsatbuildinga“greatmodernsocialistcountrythatisprosperous,strong,democratic,culturallyadvanced,harmonious,andbeautiful”.3Sinceits12thFive-YearPlan(FYP)(2010–2015),Chinahassetacoursetogreenandlow-carbondevelopment6.Theyear2020representsanimportantmilestone,particularlyforthecalibrationofChina’sclimateprotectionroadmap(seeFigure3,Step3).OnTuesday,September22,2020,duringhisspeechattheGeneralDebateofthe75thsessionoftheUNGeneralAssembly,ChinesePresidentXiJinpingannouncedthatChinaaimstopeakitsCO2emissionsbeforetheyear2030andachievecarbonneutralityby2060.OnDecember12,2020,atthe2020ClimateAmbitionSummit,MrXifurtherannouncedthatChinawillloweritsCO2emissionsperunitofGDPbyover65%fromthe2005level,increasetheshareofnon-fossilfuelsinprimaryenergyconsumptiontoaround25%,increasetheforeststockvolumeby6billioncubicmetersrelativetothe2005level,andbringthetotalinstalledcapacityofwindandsolarpowertoover1.2billionkilowatts.ThesetargetsgoaboveandbeyondChina’sNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs),whichweresubmittedtotheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)inJune2015.7Figure3.China’sclimateroadmap(selection)Source:GIZ6AttheCopenhagenSummitin2009,Chinaputforwarda40%-45%reductiontargetinCO2emissionsperunitofGDPby2020relativeto2005.Inits12thFive-YearPlan,Chinapledgeda17%reductionofCO2emissionsperunitofGDPby2015relativeto2010.7Inits2015NDCs,Chinapledgedto“peakCO2emissionsaroundtheyear2030whilemakingbesteffortstopeakearlier”Seehttps://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/China%20First/China's%20First%20NDC%20Submission.pdf4Thenew2030and2060goalsweresubmittedasupdatedNDCstotheUNFCCConSeptember28,2021,threedaysaheadofthe26thUNClimateChangeConferenceofParties(COP26)8.Whilea2030peakingtarget(withbesteffortstopeakearlier)wasalreadypartofChina’s2015NDCtotheParisAgreement,China’sSeptember2020announcementwasitsfirstcarbonneutralitytargettogopublic.Chinajoinedagroupof137countriesthathavenowcommittedtocarbonneutrality9(Figure4).Besidesitsdeepimpactontheglobalclimateagenda,theannouncementhasfar-reachingconsequencesforChina’sdomesticpolicyoverthecomingdecades.ForChinatomeetitstarget,itwillhavetophaseoutconventionalcoal,oil,andgasby2060.Doingsowillrequirenolessthanthecompletetransformationofthecountry’ssocio-economicstructure,withdeepandambitiousreformsacrossallsectors.Figure4.CarbonneutralitygoalsSource:VisualCapitalist8Seehttps://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/pages/Party.aspx?party=CHN9https://www.visualcapitalist.com/race-to-net-zero-carbon-neutral-goals-by-country/5Alongwiththeannouncementcamethefirstcallsforaction.OnSeptember27,2020,theTsinghuaUniversity’sInstituteofEnergy,EnvironmentandEconomy,oneofChina’stopclimateresearchinstitutes,presenteda12.7trillioneuro,30-yearroadmapforendingtheuseofcoalforelectricitygenerationbyaround2050,drasticallyincreasingnuclearandrenewablepowergeneration,andelectrifying80%ofChina’senergyconsumptionby206010.IfChinawantstodeliveronitspledgestopeakCO2emissionsbefore2030andachievecarbonneutralityby2060,ambitiousandbindinggoalshavetobesetineverysector,andeffectivepolicies,roadmaps,andmeasureshavetobeimplemented.Thisisparticularlytrueforthe14thFYP(2021–2025)and15thFYPperiods(2026–2030),whicharekeytosteeringChina’sdevelopmentoverthenextfourdecades.TheOutlineforthe14thFive-YearPlanandtheLong-RangeObjectivesThrough2035setvarioustargetsshapingtheclimateroadmap,includingabinding18%CO2intensityreductiontarget(CO2emissionsperunitofGDP),abinding13.5%energy10Seehttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/09/29/asia-pacific/science-health-asia-pacific/china-climate-change-road-map-2060/11Seehttp://www.npc.gov.cn/englishnpc/c23934/202103/ed3ca743486b43acabbdce4323466937/files/a54ecbc67f2c4ef78b8fc12c5717e85b.pdfintensityreductiontarget(energyconsumptionperunitofGDP)by2025,andanincreaseintheshareofnon-fossilenergyintotalenergyconsumptionto20%.(Thelastgoalwassetin2009.Thereportedsharein2020was15.8%).TheoutlinedoesnotincludeaspecificGDPgrowthtargetfor2025(althoughatargetofover6%for2021wassetintheReportontheWorkoftheGovernment,presentedbyPremierLiKeqiangduringtheTwoSessions11).ACO2emissioncaporcoalcaparealsonotforeseen12.Inordertoalignthe2030and2060climatetargetswiththerequirementsforChina’soverallsocio-economicdevelopmentanditsindividualsectors,theNationalDevelopmentandReformCommission(NDRC),togetherwithvariousotherministriesandinstitutions,iscurrentlydevelopingthe1+NPolicySystemforCO2PeakingandCarbonNeutrality(Figure5).Thepolicysystemcoversguidancefor2030CO2peakingand2060carbonneutralityalongwithdescriptionsofthepoliciesandactionplansforkeyareasincludingenergy,industry,transport,andthecirculareconomy.12AdetailedbriefingbyCarbonBriefonwhatthe14thFYPmeansforclimatechangecanbefoundhere:https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-does-chinas-14th-five-year-plan-mean-for-climate-change6Figure5.1+NpolicysystemforCO2peakingandcarbonneutralitySource:GIZOnOctober24,2021,theWorkingGuidanceforCarbonDioxidePeakingandCarbonNeutralityinFullandFaithfulImplementationoftheNewDevelopmentPhilosophy13wasreleasedbytheCentralCommitteeoftheCommunistPartyofChina(CPC)andtheStateCouncilofthePeople’sRepublicofChina.Thepolicy,thefirstofthe1+NpolicysystemforCO2peakingandcarbonneutrality,provideshigh-levelguidanceforChina’snationalandinternationaldevelopmentstrategy.ThepolicyaimstoalignChina’s2030and2060climatetargetswithitssocio-economicdevelopment,individualsectordevelopment,technologyroadmaps,standards,lawsandregulations,policies,andimplementationmechanisms.13Seehttps://en.ndrc.gov.cn/policies/202110/t20211024_1300725.htmlTheWorkingGuidancepolicyhasthefollowingmainobjectives:1.By2025,inlinewiththetargetsoutlinedinthe14thFYPandtheupdatedNDCs,theaimistocreateaninitialframeworkforagreen,low-carbon,andcirculareconomyandgreatlyimprovetheenergyefficiencyofkeyindustries,layingasolidfoundationforcarbondioxidepeakingandcarbonneutrality.2.By2030,makesignificantinroadsintothecomprehensivegreentransformationoftheeconomyandsociety,withenergyefficiencyinkeyenergy-consumingin-dustriesreachingadvancedinternationallevelsasCO2emissionspeakandthendecline.3.By2060,achievecarbonneutrality7byestablishingagreen,low-carbon,andcirculareconomyandaclean,low-carbon,energysystemwhoseefficiencyisonparwithinternationallevelsandwhoseshareofnon-fossilenergyconsumptionisover80%.Thepolicyrequiresthatthe2030and2060goalsbeincorporatedintothecountry’smedium-andlong-termdevelopmentplansandbebalancedwiththerequirementsoftheenergysector,industry,supplychain,foodsecurity,and“dailylife”.Undertheguidanceofthepolicy,theStateCouncilofthePeople’sRepublicofChinaonOctober26,2021createdtheActionPlanforCarbonDioxidePeakingbefore203014.Otherrelevant“N”policiesandactionplansforkeyareas(includingtransport)willbereleasedinthecomingmonthsaspartofthe1+Npolicysystem.Inordertoensurethatthe2030and2060targetsalignwiththerequirementsforsocio-economicdevelopmentand14Seehttps://en.ndrc.gov.cn/policies/202110/t20211027_1301020.html15https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-china-creates-new-leaders-group-to-help-deliver-its-climate-goals.Themeetingwasattendedbyfourothertop-levelofficialsincludingVice-PremierLiuHe,StateCouncilorWangYong,StateCouncilorWangYi,andthereinforceoverallclimateworkcoordination,China’scentralgovernmentestablishedtheLeadingGrouponCarbonPeakingandCarbonNeutrality,whichconsistsoftheleadersofthecountry’snationalministriesandagencies15.TheofficeoftheleadinggroupispartoftheNDRC.Thefirstplenarymeetingofthegroup,presidedbyVice-PremierHanZheng,tookplaceonMay26inBeijing(seeFigure6).MrZhengstressedthateffortsshouldbemadetoguideandsuperviselocalgovernmentsandkeyareas,industries,andenterprisesinsettinggoalsandformulatingactionplans.HestatedthattargetedandoperablepolicymeasuresareneededtooptimizeChina’sindustrialstructure,promotetheadjustmentoftheenergystructure,andsupporttheresearchanddevelopmentofgreenandlow-carbontechnologies.MrZhengalsohighlightedtheresponsibilitiesoflocalauthoritiesandtheleadingroleofstate-ownedenterprises(SOEs)inachievingdirectoroftheNationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionNDRCHeLifeng.AccordingtoCarbonBrief,MinisterofFinanceLiuKun,MinisterofScienceandTechnologyWangZhigang,MinisterofEcologyandEnvironmentHuangRunqiu,governorofChina’scentralbankYiGang,China’sspecialenvoyforclimateXieZhenhua,andthedirectoroftheNationalBureauofStatisticsNingJizheparticipatedintheplenarymeeting.8the2030CO2emissionpeakinggoal16.Theleadinggroupisthetop-levelcoordinatingandsteeringpoliticalbodyoverseeingChina’sclimateroadmapdevelopment.Itmakessurethatthe2030and2060targetsremainthehighestpriorityforthecentralgovernmentandanintegralpartoftheoverallefforttocreatea“BeautifulChina”bymid-century.China’sprovinces,autonomousregions,andmunicipalitieshavealsoestablishedtheirownleadinggroupsoncarbonpeakingandcarbonneutralitytoaidthecoordinationandimplementationofthe2030and2060climatetargets(e.g.,formulatingplanstoimplementprovincialcarbonemissionscontroltargetsandthetasksofcontrollingGHGemissions).Furthermore,Chinahassetupacarbonemissionsstatisticalaccountingworkinggroup,jointlyledbytheNDRCandtheNationalBureauofStatistics.Thegroup’spurposeistoacceleratetheestablishmentofastandardizedcarbonemissionstatisticalaccountingsystemandtocoordinateitsworkacrossdifferentregionsandindustries17.Figure6.PlenarymeetingoftheleadinggrouponcarbonpeakingandcarbonneutralitySource:StateCouncilofthePeople’sRepublicofChina16Seehttp://english.www.gov.cn/statecouncil/hanzheng/202105/27/content_WS60af990bc6d0df57f98da4d7.html17Seehttps://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202108/31/WS612e15eda310efa1bd66c648.html9China’scurrenttransportsectordevelopmentThetransportsectorwillbeinstrumentaltotheachievementofChina’s2030and2060goals.China’stransportCO2emissionshavewitnessedaverageannualgrowthof5.4%,increasingfrom505milliontonsin2005(8.1%ofthecountry’stotalCO2emissions)to1.11billiontonsin2019(10.7%ofthecountry’stotalCO2emissions).Ofthoseemissions,freighttransportaccountsfora65.8%share,androadtransportaccountsforashareof76.7%(2019)18.Duetoincreasingmotorization19andrisingpassengerandfreighttransportvolumes,thetransportsectorislikelytobetheonlysectorinChinathatdoesnotpeakitsCO2emissionsby203020.Accordingly,thepoliciesandmeasuresfordecarbonizingthetransportsectorneedtobemuchmoreambitiousifChinaistoachieveits2060target.Thisincludesthesustainablesteeringoffuturetransportdemand,thepromotionoflow-carbontransportmodes,andtheadoptionoflow-carbontechnologies.Atthesametime,theholistictransformationofthetransportsectormustbe18SeeChinaAcademyofTransportationSciences(CATS).19Currently,themotorizationrateinChinaisrelativelylow(211.8passengercarsper1,000peoplein2021).IfChinaimplementedinawaythatissustainableandthatleavesnoonebehind.TobetterunderstandthefutureofthetransportsectorinChina,onemustfirstconsideritspast.Therapideconomicgrowthandurbanizationofthepastdecadeshavebeenaccompaniedbythelarge-scaleexpansionofthecountry’stransportinfrastructureandarapidincreaseinpassengerandfreighttransportvolumes.Thenumberofcivilianairportsincreasedfrom138in2012to238bytheendof2019,andtheshareoftotalpassengertransportbyairincreasedfrom0.8%in2012to3.7%in2019.Bytheendof2019,China’shigh-speedrail(HSR)networktotaled35,000kmcomparedwith10,000kmin2012.TheshareofHSRintotalrailpassengertransportrosefrom4.5%in2007to65.4%in2019,whiletheproportionoftotalpassengertransportbyrailwayincreasedfrom5%in2012to20.8%in2019.Theurbanrailpassengervolumegrewfrom8.73billiontripsin2012to23.88billiontripsbytheendof2019,andatotalof40citieshadopenedweretoreachthemotorizationrateofGermany(about579passengercarsper1,000people),another515millioncarswouldhittheroads.20WorldEnergyOutlook2017,IEA.10urbanrailtransitlines,withatotaltracklengthof6,172km.Morethan70citieshaveissuedadministrativemeasurestoregulatebike-sharing,andmorethan360citiesprovidebike-sharingservices.Fueledbydigitalizationande-commerce,expressdeliveryvolumeshavesoared.In2012,thetotalnumberofdeliveredparcelswas5.69billion.Bytheendof2019,thenumberroseto63.52billion,aneleven-foldincrease(seeTable1).Withitsacceleratingdigitalizationandtheemergenceofnewindustriesandtechnologies,Chinahasbecomeanimportantglobalplayerinfieldssuchaselectricvehicletransport,batteryandenergystoragetechnologies,sharedmobility,andtrafficmanagementsystemsbasedonsmartandbigdata.Inordertomodernizeandtransformitstransportsector,Chinahasimplementedvariousprograms,plans,andpoliciestoguidedevelopment.Specifictargetsforshort-termdevelopmentaresetinChina’sFYPs(seeTable2).Year20122019FactorHigh-speedrail(HSR)networklength10,000km35,000km3.5Expresswaynetworklength96,000km150,000km1.56Navigableinlandwaterway125,000km127,000km1.01Civilianairports1382381.72Urbanrailpassengervolume8.73billiontrips23.88billiontrips2.73Railfreightvolume3.9billiontonnes4.39billiontonnes1.12Postalandexpressdeliveryservicesnetworklength10.92millionkm40.86millionkm3.74Expressdeliveryvolume5.69billionparcels63.52billionparcels11Table1.SelectedstatisticsfromChina’stransportinfrastructure,2012–2019Source:WhitePaperontheSustainableDevelopmentofTransportinChina11Target11thFYP(2006–2010)Status201012thFYP(2011–2015)Status201513thFYP(2016–2020)Status201914thFYP(2021–2025)Gradeofurbanization47%47.5%51.5%56.1%60%60.6%65%ReductioninenergyconsumptionperunitofGDP20%19.1%16%18.2%15%13.2%13.5%ReductioninCO2emissionsperunitofGDP--17%20%18%18.2%18%Shareofnon-fossilfuelsinprimaryenergy-8.6%11.4%12%15%15.3%20%Railwaynetworklength90,000km91,000km120,000km121,000km150,000km139,000km170,000km21High-speedrailnetworklength-8,358km-19,000km30,000km35,000km50,000km22Highwaynetworklength2.3millionkm4millionkm4.5millionkm4.58millionkm5millionkm5.01millionkm-Civilianairports190175230207260238268+%villageswithaccesstopavedroads-81.7%90%94.5%99%100%-Table2.Comparisonofselectedtransportdevelopmenttargetsinthe11th,12th,13th,and14thFive-YearPlansSource:GIZ21Theseareexpertprojections,andareexpectedtobeincludedinthetransportsectionoftheupcoming14thFive-YearPlan.Seehttps://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1693528477794435890&wfr=spider&for=pc22Ibid.12Inits13thFYPperiod(2016–2020)23,Chinaaimedtomakeitsgreentransportsectormoreefficient,integrated,andsafe,inadditiontofurtherexpandingitsbasictransportinfrastructure(seeTable2andFigure7).Thisincludedthepromotionofpublictransport,smartandintelligenttransport,newenergyvehicles(NEVs)24,intermodaltransport,cycling,andwalking.ItalsoincludedthebetterintegrationoftransportinfrastructuresandservicesincityclusterssuchasBeijing–Tianjin–Hebei(Jing-Jin-Ji),theYangtzeRiverEconomicBelt,andtheGuangdong–HongKong–MacaoGreaterBayArea(GBA).Figure7.Keytargetsfortransportinthe13thFive-YearPlanforEconomicandtheSocialDevelopmentofthePeople’sRepublicofChina,2016–2020Source:GIZ23The13thFive-YearPlanforEconomicandSocialDevelopmentofthePeople’sRepublicofChina,2016–2020,wasissuedonMarch17,2016.Moreinformationcanbefoundhere.24NEVsincludebattery-electric,(plug-in)hybrid,andfuel-cellvehicles.13KeypoliciesforChina’stransportsectordevelopmentTofurtherguidethedevelopmentofthetransportsector,Chinahasrecentlyintroducedvariousshort-,medium-,andlong-termtop-levelpolicies(Figure8).Someofthemostimportantinclude:1.OutlineforBuildingChina’sStrengthinTransport(2020–2050)Theoutline,releasedonSeptember19,2019,andapprovedbytheCommunistPartyofChinaCentralCommittee(CPCCC)andtheStateCouncilofthePeople’sRepublicofChina,isalong-termplanforthetransformationofChina’stransportsystemfromaspeed-andscale-centeredmodeltoaquality-andefficiency-centeredintegratedmodel.TheplanprovidesaroadmapforChinatobecomeaglobaltransportsuperpowerby2050.Adetailedbriefingonthepolicycanbefoundhere.Figure8.China’stransportsectordevelopmentroadmap(selectedpolicies)Source:GIZ142.NationalComprehensiveThree-dimensionalTransportationNetworkPlanningOutline(2021–2035)Thepolicy,releasedonFebruary24,2021bytheCentralCommitteeoftheCommunistPartyofChina(CPC)andtheStateCouncilofthePeople’sRepublicofChina,isastrategictop-levelpolicyguidingthedevelopmentofacomprehensiveandfullyintegratedtransportsystemduringthe2021–2035period.Italsopresentsavisionforsubsequentdevelopmentuntilmid-century.ThepolicyisbasedontheOutlineforBuildingChina’sStrengthinTransportandisalignedwiththecountry’s2030and2060climatetargets.Itsgoalistoensurethattransportsectoremissionspeakasearlyaspossible.Adetailedbriefingonthepolicycanbefoundhere.3.NewEnergyVehicleIndustryDevelopmentPlan(2021–2035)Theplan,releasedonNovember2,2020,bytheStateCouncilOfficeof25Seehttp://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2012/content_2182749.htmthePeople’sRepublicofChina,isastrategictop-levelpolicyguidingthedevelopmentofacomprehensiveandfullyintegratednewenergyvehicle(NEV)andintelligentconnectedvehicle(ICV)ecosysteminChinaby2035.TheplanispartofacomprehensiveroadmaptohelpChinabecomeaglobalautomotivepowerhouse.TheplanfollowstheEnergyConservationandNewEnergyVehicleIndustryDevelopmentPlan(2012-2020),25whichwasissuedbytheStateCouncilofthePeople’sRepublicofChinain2012.Adetailedbriefingonthepolicycanbefoundhere.4.14thFive-YearPlan(2021–2025)andLong-RangeObjectivesThrough2035The192-chapterlong14thFive-YearPlan(FYP)isatop-levelpolicyblueprintforChina'snationaleconomicandsocialdevelopmentoverthenextfiveyears.ForthefirsttimeinChina’sFYPhistory,theplandoesnotsetaGDPgrowthtarget.15(Comparethistothe6.5%targetsetinthe13thFYPfor2016–2020.)TheFYPcallsforatransitionfromspeed-andscale-centereddevelopmenttoamoresustainabledevelopmentmodelbasedonqualityandefficiency.The14thFYPemphasizesthecentralroleoftechnologyandinnovation(includingartificialintelligence,bigdata,and5G)andforeseesanincreaseinR&Dspendingofmorethan7%peryear.Thetransportsectoriskeytoachievingmoreintegrateddevelopmentinthe14thFYPperiod.Overthenext5years,Chinawilldevelopitscoastalareasandhinterland,strengthenitsurbanagglomerationsandcityclusters,pushruraldevelopmentandurban-ruralintegration,andimproveitstransportinfrastructure(seeFigure9).Figure9.Diagramofthespatialpatternsofurbanizationinthe14thFYPSource:14thFYP16InlinewiththeOutlineforBuildingChina’sStrengthinTransport(2020-2050)andtheNationalComprehensiveThree-dimensionalTransportationNetworkPlanningOutline(2021–2035),the14thFYPsetsthefollowingtargets(amongothers):1.build30+newcivilianairportsby2025;2.build3,000kmofnewintercityrailwaysandsuburbanrailwaysandcompletetherailtransportnetworkinBeijing,Tianjin,theHebeiregion(Jing-Jin-Ji),theYangtzeRiverDelta,andtheGreaterBayArea,with3,000kmofnewurbanrailtransit;3.acceleratetheshiftfromroadtorailandroadtowaterwaysforbulkcargoandlong-distancefreighttransport;4.promotetheelectrificationofurbanpublictransportandlogisticsdistributionandgiveprioritytothedevelopmentofurbanpublictransportandactivemobilitynetworks(i.e.cyclingandwalking)inChinesecities;5.developin-depthNEVandchargingfacilitiesandintelligentconnectedvehicles(ICVs);6.supportinnovativetechnologiesthatcandeliverenergysavingsandemissionsreductions;developapplicablestandards;marketelectricvehicles,ICVs,andsmartports;anddigitallytransformtraditionaltransportinfrastructure.Thepolicycanbefoundhere.Basedonthe14thFive-YearPlan(2021–2025)andtheLong-RangeObjectivesThrough2035,furthertransportsector-specificpolicieswillbereleasedinthecomingmonthsatthenationalandsub-nationallevels(e.g.,ModernComprehensiveTransportation14thFYP,ComprehensiveTransportationServices14thFYP,UrbanPublicTransport14thFYP,WaterTransport14thFYP,HighwayDevelopment14thFYP).5.WorkingGuidanceforCarbonDioxidePeakingandCarbonNeutralityinFullandFaithfulImplementationoftheNewDevelopmentPhilosophySectionVIofthe1+Npolicy(“Acceleratingtheconstructionofalow-carbontransportationsystem”)identifiestransportasakeysector.Inlinewiththegoalsoftheabovepolicies,thesectionoutlinestheimportanceofbringingdowntransport17energyconsumptionandcarbondioxideemissionintensity.The1+Npolicyseekstooptimizethetransportstructureandacceleratetheconstructionofanintegrated,multi-dimensionaltransportationnetwork.Itsmeasuresincludethepromotionoflow-carbonmobility(publictransport,cycling,walking),greenlogistics,low-carbonequipment,low-carboninfrastructure(hydrogenrefuelingstations,chargingandbatteryswappingnetworksystems),intelligenttransportation,theimprovementofenergy-efficiencystandardsforfossil-fuelvehiclesandvessels,andthephase-outofobsoletevehiclesandvesselswithhighenergyconsumptionandemissions.Thepolicycanbefoundhere.6.Actionplanforcarbondioxidepeakingbefore2030Thispolicyisthefirst“N”ofthe1+Npolicysystem.Section5of1+N(“Theactionforpromotinggreenandlow-carbontransportation”)identifiesthetransportsectorasakeysectorinachieving2030targets.Theseaimto1.reachpeakpetroleumconsumptionforlandtransport;2.attaina40%shareofincrementalvehiclesfueledbynewandcleanenergy;3.cutthecarbonemissionintensityofcommercialvehicles(measuredbyconvertedturnover)byabout9.5%relativeto2020;4.reducetheenergyconsumptionofnationalrailways/unitofconvertedturnoverby10%relativeto2020;and5.conductnolessthan70%oftravelthroughenvironmentallyfriendlymeansincitieswithpopulationsofonemillionormore.Thepolicycanbefoundhere.RecommendationsTransportemissionpeakinganddecarbonizationstrategiesAspartofthe1+Npolicysystem,anational-levelclimateactionstrategyforthetransportsectorbasedonemissioncapsisneededtoprovideaclearlow-carbondevelopmentpathwayforregionaldecision-makers,thetransportindustry,andmarkets.Thestrategyshouldbeforesight-basedandaddressemissionsfromroad,rail,water,andair18transport.Thestrategyshouldfurtheraddresspropulsiontechnologypathways(inparticularforheavy-dutyfreight,aviation,andmaritimetransport),theclean-energysupply,thechargingandrefuelinginfrastructure,thebenefitsofco-controlforGHGemissionsandairpollutants,theinterlinkagebetweentransportandothersectors(includingurbandevelopment,energy,andinformationsectors),carbonmarketpricing,fuelandemissionstandards,internalcombustionengine(ICE)phase-outroadmaps,datacollection,measurement,reportingandverification(MRV)frameworks,greenfinancingandthepromotionofinnovation.Thestrategyshouldharnesstheavoid–shift–improveapproach.Thisapproachaimsto1.avoidtrips,e.g.throughefficientland-useplanning;2.shifttripstoclimate-friendlymeanssuchaspublictransport,cycling,andwalking;and3.improvesystemefficiencyandadvancelow-carbontechnology.Thestrategyshouldincludepathwaystoa“justtransition”.Thatistosay,thestrategyshouldfullyexplorethepotentialforpositiveeconomicgrowth,innovation,andnewjobsandensurethatnooneisleftbehind.Inthisway,Chinacanbringaboutatransitionwithbroadpublicsupport.AligningthetransitioninthetransportandenergysectorsIfChinaistodecarbonizeitstransportsector,creatingazero-emissionenergysectoriscrucial.Moreover,itisimportanttoensurethattransitionintheenergysectorisfullyalignedwithtransitioninthetransportsector.Electrictransportmustbezeroemissionsfromwell-to-wheel,usingcleanenergyonly.Thedirectelectrificationoftransportshouldbeimplementedwhereverpossible.Greenhydrogenandgreensynthetice-fuels(power-to-X)shouldbeusedonlywhendirectelectrificationisnottechnicallyoreconomicallyviableinthenearterm(suchasinaviationandmaritimetransport).Theenergy,transport,andinformationsectorsshouldbefullyintegratedinan“energyinternet”totapthepotentialsofvehiclesasenergystorageunits(vehicle-to-grid,V2G)andnewbusinessmodels(e.g.battery-as-a-service,BaaS).19TheFourNows!Theauthorsofthisreporthaveidentifiedfourareasofhighpriorityfordecarbonizingthetransportsector.TheFourNows!arecrucialtoreachingCO2peakingby2030andcarbonneutralityby2060.Immediate,holistic,andcoordinatedambitionsandmeasuresareneededtosteerthedevelopmentofthetransportsectortoazero-emissionpathway,particularlygiventhelonginvestmentcyclesforresearchanddevelopment,propulsiontechnologyadoption,andinfrastructureconstruction.1.Greenfreightnow!Chinashouldplayaleadingroleinthedecarbonizationoffreighttransport.Freighttransportaccountsforabout65%oftotaltransportemissionsinChina,ofwhichroadfreighttransportmakesupthelargestshare.Thefreightsector,includinglong-distance,inter-city,andinner-cityfreight,needstobedecarbonizedassoonaspossible.Chinashouldfocusonacceleratingthepromotionofintermodaltransporttoshiftfreighttransportvolumesfromroadtorail(incl.high-speedfreighttrains)andinlandwaterways.Vehicleelectrificationwillplayakeyroleindecarbonizingroadfreight.Afocusshouldbeplacedonbattery-electricpropulsionandinnovativesolutionssuchascatenarytrucksforlong-haultransport.Thefurtheradvancementofbatterytechnology,standardization,andthedevelopmentofchargingandbatteryswappinginfrastructurearealsoneeded.Fiscalandnon-fiscalsupportmeasures,includingvehiclepurchasesubsidiesandright-of-waylanesforNEVs,shouldbeadopted.Smartlogisticssolutions,digitalfreightandlogisticsplatforms,andautonomousdrivingcanleadtohigherefficiencyandloweremissions.Greendeliverysolutions(e.g.cargobikesforlast-miledeliveries,cargotramsorsubwaysforpassengerandgoods)shouldbepromoted.2.Greenaviationnow!Chinashouldplayaleadingroleinthedecarbonizationofairtravel.Asdescribedabove,the14thFYPenvisionstheconstructionofmorethan30new20airports.Rightnow,China’spercapitaaviation-relatedCO2emissionsarelow(0.09tonscomparedwith0.57tonsintheUSand0.86tonsintheUK).IfChinaremainsonitscurrentcourse,however,emissionsinitsaviationsectoremissionsmayquadrupleby2050.26Therefore,afocusshouldbeplacedonthelong-termdeepdecarbonizationofthedomesticandinternationalaviationsector.Thisincludescross-bordersolutions,thedevelopmentofaircraftandenginetechnology,theuseofsustainableaviationfuels,efficiencyinairtrafficmanagement,greenon-groundoperations,andthepromotionofgreenairportsandrelatedinfrastructure.ItalsoincludespromotingHSRinsteadofflyingwhereverpossibleandraisingawarenessfortheenvironmentalandclimateimpactoftheaviationsector.3.Greenshippingnow!Chinashouldplayaleadingroleinpromotingthe4thenergyrevolutioninshipping(fromrowingtosailingtooiltocleanfuels).Shippingisacapital-26Seehttps://theicct.org/sites/default/files/ICCT_Global-Aviation-CO2-Inventory-2018.xlsx,intensiveindustrywithlong-lifeassets,thinmargins,andahighdependencyontheglobalsupplyofenergy-densefuels.Immediateactionisthereforeneededtodecarbonizemaritimeandinlandwaterwaystransport.Tothisend,moreresourcesshouldbechanneledintoresearchontheroleofalternativefuelssuchasgreenammoniaandintothedevelopmentofscalableandcost-competitiveuses.Inthemeantime,Chinashoulddevelopshort-termsolutionssuchasacleanonshorepowersupplyandclean-energyapplicationsforportswhileexploringwindpropulsiontechnologies(e.g.inflatablesailsystems,seawings)andotherinnovativesolutions.4.Greencitiesnow!Todecarbonizeurbantransport,holisticapproachesareneeded.Theseincludethealignmentofurbandevelopmentwiththetransportsectorandclimatetargets(e.g.bypromotingsustainableurbanmobilityplanning,orSUMP);thepromotionofpeople-centered,space-https://www.carbonbrief.org/emissions-from-chinese-aviation-could-quadruple-by-205021saving,mixed-use,barrier-free,andpublictransport-centeredcities(suchasthe“15-minutecity”andtransit-orienteddevelopmentToD);thepricingofroadandparkingspaces;thepromotionofpublictransportasanurbanmobilitybackbone(networkexpansionandserviceimprovement)anditsintegrationwithnewcarboncredit-basedmobility-as-a-serviceplatforms(e.g.ride-hailingandsmartbike-sharing)27;theprioritizationofcycling,walking,andotherformsofmicromobility;andthepromotionoflow-speedelectricvehicles(LSEVs).InternationalcooperationNocountrycanfightclimatechangealone.FiveyearsaftertheParisAgreement,moreandmorecountriesarecommittingthemselvestoclimateneutralitytargets.Strengtheningnationalclimatetargetswillleadtoincreasedambitionsinthetransportsector.Practicalinternationalexchangeandintensifieddialoguesbetweengovernments,researchinstitutions,and27Mobility-as-a-Service(MaaS)isaconceptthatfacilitatestheintegrationoftransportservicesintosinglemobilityplatforms.industriescanfosterthealignmentofclimatestrategiesandroadmaps,andthesharingofbestpracticesandcansupporttheinternationalcommunityinexploringopportunitiesandsynergisticeffectsfordecarbonizingtransportatthegloballevel.ExamplesofinternationalcooperationinthefieldoftransportdecarbonizationaretheNDCTransportInitiativeforAsia(NDC-TIA)andtheSino-GermanCooperationonLow-CarbonTransport(CLCT).Theseprojects,whichhavebeencommissionedbytheGermanFederalMinistryfortheEnvironment,NatureConservationandNuclearSafety(BMU)andimplementedbyGIZ,seektosupporttheMinistryofEcologyandEnvironmentofthePeople’sRepublicofChina(MEE)andtheMinistryofTransportofthePeople’sRepublicofChina(MoT)indecarbonizingtheChinesetransportsectorandtofosterknowledgesharingbetweenstakeholdersinChinaandotherAsiancountries.22Ifyouwanttoknowmoreaboutwhatwearedoingtopromotelow-carbontransportinChina,pleasecontactMrSebastianIbold(sebastian.ibold@giz.de),theprojectdirectorofthesustainablemobilityteamofGIZChina,orMs.XiaYun(yun.xia@giz.de),theChinatechnicaladvisorattheNDCTransportInitiativeforAsiaatGIZChina.
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