2023年关键矿产市场报告（英文版）-国际能源署IEAVIP专享VIP免费

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Critical Minerals

Market Review 2023

The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy

issues including oil, gas and coal supply and

demand, renewable energy technologies,

electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to

energy, demand side management and much

more. Through its work, the IEA advocates

policies that will enhance the reliability,

affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31

member countries, 11 association countries and

beyond.

This publication and any map included herein are

without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty

over any territory, to the delimitation of

international frontiers and boundaries and to the

name of any territory, city or area.

Source: IEA.

International Energy Agency

Website: www.iea.org

IEA member countries:

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Slovak Republic

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Republic of Türkiye

United Kingdom

United States

The European Commission

also participates in the work

of the IEA

IEA association countries:

Argentina

Brazil

China

Egypt

India

Indonesia

Kenya

Morocco

Senegal

Singapore

South Africa

Thailand

Ukraine

Critical Minerals Market Review 2023

PAGE | 2

Critical Minerals Market Review 2023

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Abstract

The inaugural edition of the Critical Minerals Market Review provides a

major update on the investment, market, technology and policy trends of

the critical minerals sector in 2022 and an an initial reading of the

emerging picture for 2023. Through in-depth analyses of clean energy

and mineral market trends, this report assesses the progress made by

countries and businesses in scaling up future supplies, diversifying

sources of supply, and improving sustainable and responsible practices.

It also examines major trends for individual minerals and discusses key

policy implications.

The report will be followed by a forthcoming analysis that will feature

comprehensive demand and supply projections for key materials and a

number of deep-dives on key issues. It also makes available an online

tool, the Critical Minerals Data Explorer, which allow users to explore

interactively the latest IEA projections.

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CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits31membercountries,11associationcountriesandbeyond.Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.Source:IEA.InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:www.iea.orgIEAmembercountries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzechRepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNewZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovakRepublicINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCYSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdomUnitedStatesTheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEAIEAassociationcountries:ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouthAfricaThailandUkraineCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE2CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.AbstractTheinauguraleditionoftheCriticalMineralsMarketReviewprovidesamajorupdateontheinvestment,market,technologyandpolicytrendsofthecriticalmineralssectorin2022andananinitialreadingoftheemergingpicturefor2023.Throughin-depthanalysesofcleanenergyandmineralmarkettrends,thisreportassessestheprogressmadebycountriesandbusinessesinscalingupfuturesupplies,diversifyingsourcesofsupply,andimprovingsustainableandresponsiblepractices.Italsoexaminesmajortrendsforindividualmineralsanddiscusseskeypolicyimplications.Thereportwillbefollowedbyaforthcominganalysisthatwillfeaturecomprehensivedemandandsupplyprojectionsforkeymaterialsandanumberofdeep-divesonkeyissues.Italsomakesavailableanonlinetool,theCriticalMineralsDataExplorer,whichallowuserstoexploreinteractivelythelatestIEAprojections.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE3CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.TableofcontentIntroduction......................................................................................................4Executivesummary.........................................................................................5Keymarketdevelopments..............................................................................9Developmentsofthebatterysector............................................................35Keytrendsbyindividualcommodity...........................................................50Implications....................................................................................................62Annex..............................................................................................................75CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE4CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.IntroductionCriticalminerals,essentialforarangeofcleanenergytechnologies,haverisenupthepolicyandbusinessagendainrecentyears.Rapidgrowthindemandisprovidingnewopportunitiesfortheindustry,butacombinationofvolatilepricemovements,supplychainbottlenecksandgeopoliticalconcernshascreatedapotentmixofrisksforsecureandrapidenergytransitions.Thishastriggeredanarrayofnewpolicyactionsindifferentjurisdictionstoenhancethediversityandreliabilityofcriticalmineralsupplies.SincetheInternationalEnergyAgency’s(IEA)landmarkanalysisontheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitionsandthenewministerialmandatesinMarch2022,theAgencyhasexpandeditsworkoncriticalmineralstohelppolicymakersaddresstheseemergingchallengesandensurereliableandsustainablesuppliesofcriticalminerals.Theseeffortsincludeacommitmenttoregularmarketmonitoring,whichaimstoprovideaclearunderstandingoftoday’sdemandandsupplydynamicsandwhattheymeanforthefuture.Inthisinauguralpieceofanalysis,wereviewthelatestprice,investmentandproductiontrendsinthecriticalmineralssector.Thefirstchapterprovidesasnapshotofindustrydevelopmentsin2022andearly2023.Thesecondchapterreviewskeytrendsinthebatterysectorgivenitsimportanceindrivingdemandgrowthforcriticalminerals.Thethirdchapterpresentsaconcisereviewofkeytrendsforeachindividualcommodity.Inthefinalchapter,wepresentimplicationsforpolicyandindustrystakeholders.CriticalmineralshavebeenfullyintegratedintotheIEA’sGlobalEnergyandClimateModel,whichmeansthattheprojectionsforcriticalmineralsdemandandsupplyareregularlyupdatedinlinewithlatestpolicyandtechnologytrendsintheIEAenergyscenarios,notablyintheWorldEnergyOutlookandtheGlobalEVOutlook.TheupdatedprojectionsareavailablethroughtheIEACriticalMineralsDataExplorer,anonlinetoolthatintendstoallowuserstoeasilyaccessandnavigatethelatestdata.Thisispartoftheeffortstoenhancemarkettransparencythroughmakingmoredatapubliclyavailable.Ourreportconsidersawiderangeofmineralsusedincleanenergytechnologies,asindicatedintheAnnexofthespecialreport.Forenergytransitionminerals,wefocusoncopper,majorbatterymetals(lithium,nickel,cobaltandgraphite)andrareearthelements.Wealsodiscusstrendsforotherimportantmineralsandmetalssuchasaluminium,manganese,platinumgroupmetalsanduraniumasrelevant.Thisreportfocusesontoday’sstateofplay.Itwillbecomplementedbyaforthcomingpieceofanalysisthatwillprovidefulldemandandsupplyprojectionsforkeymaterialsandanumberofdeep-divesonkeyissues.ThiswillresponddirectlytotherequestintheG7Five-PointPlanforcriticalmineralssecurity,wheretheGroupofSevenministersaskedtheIEAtoproducemedium-andlong-termoutlooksforcriticalmineralsdemandandsupplytohelpinformdecisionmaking.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE5CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.ExecutivesummaryRecorddeploymentofcleanenergytechnologiessuchassolarPVandbatteriesispropellingunprecedentedgrowthinthecriticalmineralsmarkets.Electriccarsalesincreasedby60%in2022,exceeding10millionunits.Energystoragesystemsexperiencedevenmorerapidgrowth,withcapacityadditionsdoublingin2022.SolarPVinstallationscontinuetoshatterpreviousrecords,andwindpowerissettoresumeitsupwardmarchaftertwosubduedyears.Thishasledtoasignificantincreaseindemandforcriticalminerals.From2017to2022,demandfromtheenergysectorwasthemainfactorbehindatriplinginoveralldemandforlithium,a70%jumpindemandforcobalt,anda40%riseindemandfornickel.In2022,theshareofcleanenergyapplicationsintotaldemandreached56%forlithium,40%forcobaltand16%fornickel,upfrom30%forlithium,17%forcobaltand6%fornickelfiveyearsago.Drivenbyrisingdemandandhighprices,themarketsizeofkeyenergytransitionmineralsdoubledoverthepastfiveyears,reachingUSD320billionin2022.Thiscontrastswiththemodestgrowthofbulkmaterialslikezincandlead.Asaresult,energytransitionminerals,whichusedtobeasmallsegmentofthemarket,arenowmovingtocentrestageintheminingandmetalsindustry.Thisbringsnewrevenueopportunitiesfortheindustry,createsjobsforthesociety,andinsomecaseshelpsdiversifycoal-dependenteconomies.Theaffordabilityandspeedofenergytransitionswillbeheavilyinfluencedbytheavailabilityofcriticalmineralsupplies.Manycriticalmineralsexperiencedbroad-basedpriceincreasesin2021andearly2022,accompaniedbystrongvolatility,particularlyforlithiumandnickel.Mostpricesbegantomoderateinthelatterhalfof2022andinto2023butremainwellabovehistoricalaverages.Higherorvolatilemineralpricesduring2021and2022highlightedtheimportanceofmaterialpricesinthecostsoftransformingourenergysystems.AccordingtotheIEA’scleanenergyequipmentpriceindex,cleanenergytechnologycostscontinuedtodeclineuntiltheendof2020duetotechnologyinnovationandeconomiesofscale,buthighmaterialpricesthenreversedthisdecade-longtrend.Despitetheserecentsetbacks,itisnoteworthythatthepricesofallcleanenergytechnologiestodayaresignificantlylowerthanadecadeago.Countriesareseekingtodiversifymineralsupplieswithawaveofnewpolicies.ThereisgrowingrecognitionthatpolicyinterventionsareneededtoensureadequateandsustainablemineralsuppliesandtheproliferationofsuchinitiativesincludestheEuropeanUnion’sCriticalRawMaterials(CRM)Act,theUnitedStates’InflationReductionAct,Australia’sCriticalMineralsStrategyandCanada’sCriticalMineralsStrategy,amongothers.TheIEACriticalMineralsPolicyTrackeridentifiednearly200policiesandregulationsacrosstheglobe,withover100oftheseenactedinthepastfewyears.Manyoftheseinterventionshaveimplicationsfortradeandinvestment,andsomehaveincludedrestrictionsonimportorexport.Amongresource-richcountries,Indonesia,NamibiaandZimbabwehaveintroducedmeasurestobanCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE6CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.theexportofunprocessedmineralore.Globally,exportrestrictionsoncriticalrawmaterialshaveseenafivefoldincreasesince2009.Investmentincriticalmineralsdevelopmentrecordedanothersharpuptickby30%in2022,followinga20%increasein2021.Ourdetailedanalysisoftheinvestmentlevelsof20largeminingcompanieswithasignificantpresenceindevelopingenergytransitionmineralsshowsastrongriseincapitalexpenditureoncriticalminerals,spurredbytherobustmomentumbehindcleanenergydeployment.Companiesspecialisinginlithiumdevelopmentrecordeda50%increaseinspending,followedbythosefocusingoncopperandnickel.CompaniesbasedinthePeople’sRepublicofChina(hereafter,“China”)nearlydoubledtheirinvestmentspendingin2022.Explorationspendingalsoroseby20%in2022,drivenbyrecordgrowthinlithiumexploration.CanadaandAustralialedthewaywithover40%growthyear-on-year,notablyinhard-rocklithiumplays.ExplorationactivitiesarealsoexpandinginAfricaandBrazil.Lithiumstoodoutasaclearleaderinexplorationactivities,withspendingincreasingby90%.Uraniumalsoexperiencedasignificantsurgeinspendingby60%duetorenewedinterestinnuclearpoweramidconcernsoverRussiansupplies.Nickelwasaclosefollowerwitha45%growthrateforexploration,ledbyCanada,wherehigh-gradesulfideresources,proximitytoexistinginfrastructureandaccesstolow-emissionselectricitycreateattractiveinvestmentopportunities.Despiteheadwindsinthewiderventurecapitalsector,criticalmineralsstart-upsraisedarecordUSD1.6billionin2022.This160%year-on-yearincreasetookthecriticalmineralscategoryto4%ofallventurecapital(VC)fundingforcleanenergy.Thefirstquarterof2023hasbeenstrongforcriticalminerals,despiteaseveredownturninotherVCsegments,suchasdigitalstart-ups.BatteryrecyclingwasthelargestrecipientofVCfunding,followedbylithiumextractionandrefiningtechnologies.CompaniesbasedintheUnitedStatesraisedmostofthefunds,at45%ofthetotalbetween2018and2022.CanadianandChinesestart-upsarenotablyactiveinbatteryrecyclingandlithiumrefining.Europeanstart-upshavebeensuccessfulatraisingmoneyforrareearthelements,batteryreuseandbatterymaterialsupply.Thebatterysectorisundergoingtransformativechangeswiththeemergenceofnewtechnologyoptions.Globalbatterydemandforcleanenergyapplicationsincreasedbytwo-thirdsin2022,withenergystoragebecomingagrowingpartofthetotaldemand.Demandforbatteriesinvehiclesoutpacedthegrowthrateofelectriccarsalesastheaveragebatterysizeforelectriccarscontinuedtoriseinnearlyeverymajormarket.ThetrendoffavouringlargervehiclesseeninconventionalcarmarketsisbeingreplicatedintheEVmarket,posingadditionalpressureoncriticalmineralsupplychains.Sodium-ionbatterieswitnessedaleapforwardinearly2023,withplansforproductioncapacityexceeding100gigawatt-hours,primarilyconcentratedinChina.Initially,companiesaretargetinglessdemandingapplicationssuchasstationarystorageormicromobilityforthistechnology,anditremainstobeseenifitwillbeabletomeettheneedsforEVrangeandchargingtime.Today,thevastmajorityofrecyclingcapacityislocatedinChina,butnewfacilitiesarebeingdevelopedinEuropeandtheUnitedStates.ScrapfrommanufacturingprocessesisCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE7CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.dominatingtoday’srecyclingpool,butthisissettochangefromaround2030asusedEVbatteriesreachtheendoftheirfirstlife.Inabidtosecuremineralsupplies,automakers,batterycellmakersandequipmentmanufacturersareincreasinglygettinginvolvedinthecriticalmineralsvaluechain.Long-termofftakeagreementshavebecomethenormintheindustry’sprocurementstrategies,butcompaniesaretakingextrastepstoinvestdirectlyinthecriticalmineralsvaluechainsuchasmining,refiningandprecursormaterials.Since2021,therehasbeenanotableincreaseindirectinvestmentactivities.ContemporaryAmperexTechnologyCo.Limited,theworld’slargestbatterycellmaker,hasmadetheacquisitionofcriticalmineralassetsacentralelementofitsstrategy.OtherexamplesincludeGeneralMotors’USD650millioninvestmentinLithiumAmericasandTesla’splantobuildanewlithiumrefineryintheUnitedStates,amongothers.DemandforcriticalmineralsforcleanenergytechnologiesissettoincreaserapidlyinallIEAscenarios.Sinceitslandmarkspecialreportin2021,theIEAhasbeenupdatingitsprojectionsforfuturemineraldemandbasedonthelatestpolicyandtechnologydevelopments.IntheAnnouncedPledgesScenario(APS),demandmorethandoublesby2030.IntheNetZeroEmissionsby2050(NZE)Scenario,demandforcriticalmineralsgrowsbythreeandahalftimesto2030,reachingover30milliontonnes.EVsandbatterystoragearethemaindriversofdemandgrowth,buttherearealsomajorcontributionsfromlow-emissionspowergenerationandelectricitynetworks.TheseresultsareavailablethroughtheIEACriticalMineralsDataExplorer,aninteractiveonlinetoolthatallowsuserstoeasilyaccesstheIEA'sprojectiondataunderdifferentscenariosandtechnologytrends.Threelayersofsupply-sidechallengesneedtobeaddressedtoensurerapidandsecureenergytransitions.Theyarei)whetherfuturesuppliescankeepupwiththerapidpaceofdemandgrowthinclimate-drivenscenarios;ii)whetherthosesuppliescancomefromdiversifiedsources;andiii)whetherthosevolumescanbesuppliedfromcleanandresponsiblesources.Ahostofnewlyannouncedprojectsindicatethatsupplyiscatchingupwithcountries’cleanenergyambitions,buttheadequacyoffuturesupplyisfarfromassured.Insomecases,newlyannouncedprojectssuggestthatanticipatedsuppliesin2030areapproachingtherequirementsoftheAPSalthoughdeploymentlevelsintheNZEScenariorequirefurtherprojectstoberealised.Whileencouraging,practicalchallengespersist.Risksofscheduledelaysandcostoverruns,whichhavebeenprevalentinthepast,cannotbeignored.Thereisalsoanimportantdistinctionbetweentechnology-gradeproductsandbattery-gradeproducts,withthelattergenerallyrequiringhigher-qualityinputs.Thismeansthatevenwithanoverallbalanceofsupplyanddemand,thesupplyofbattery-gradeproductsmaystillbeconstrained.Moreover,newminingplaysoftencomewithhigherproductioncosts,whichcouldpushupmarginalcostsandprices.Limitedprogresshasbeenmadeintermsofdiversifyingsupplysourcesinrecentyears;thesituationhasevenworsenedinsomecases.Comparedwiththesituationthreeyearsago,theshareofthetopthreeproducersin2022eitherremainsunchangedorhasincreasedfurther,especiallyfornickelandcobalt.Ouranalysisofprojectpipelinesindicatesasomewhatimprovedpictureformining,butnotforrefiningoperationswheretoday’sgeographicalconcentrationisgreater.TheCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE8CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.majorityofplannedprojectsaredevelopedinincumbentregions,withChinaholdinghalfofplannedlithiumchemicalplantsandIndonesiarepresentingnearly90%ofplannednickelrefiningfacilities.Manyresource-holdingnationsareseekingpositionsfurtherupthevaluechainwhilemanyconsumingcountrieswanttodiversifytheirsourceofrefinedmetalsupplies.However,theworldhasnotyetsuccessfullyconnectedthedotstobuilddiversifiedmidstreamsupplychains.Therehasbeenmixedprogresstowardsimprovingsustainableandresponsiblepractices.Somecompaniesaresteppingupactionstoreduceenvironmentalandsocialharmsassociatedwiththeiractivities.Ourassessmentoftheenvironmentalandsocialperformanceof20keycompaniesshowsthatcompaniesaremakingheadwayincommunityinvestment,workersafetyandgenderbalance.However,environmentalindicatorsarenotimprovingatthesamerate.Greenhousegasemissionsremainhigh,withroughlythesameamountbeingemittedpertonneofmineraloutputeveryyear.Waterwithdrawalsalmostdoubledfrom2018to2021.Thereisalsoaquestionmarkregardingtheextenttowhichsustainabilityisbeingseriouslyconsideredbyconsumers.Despitetheavailabilityofcleanerproductionpathways,therearefewsignsthatendusersareprioritisingthemintheirsourcingandinvestmentdecisions,althoughsomedownstreamcompanieshavestartedtogivepreferencetomineralswithalowerclimateimpact.CriticalmineralssupplyisalsoaconcernforChina.Astheworld’slargestmetalrefininghub,Chinaheavilyreliesonimportsforlargevolumesofrawmaterials,oftenfromasmallnumberofsources.Forexample,ChinareliesalmostentirelyontheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongoforminedcobalt.Chinaisthereforeseekingwaystodiversifyitsrawmaterialsupplyportfolio.ThecountryhasbeenactivelyinvestinginminingassetsinAfricaandLatinAmerica,andstartedinvestinginoverseasrefininganddownstreamfacilities,withanaimtosecurestrategicaccesstorawmaterials.Between2018andthefirsthalfof2021,ChinesecompaniesinvestedUSD4.3billiontoacquirelithiumassets,twicetheamountinvestedbycompaniesfromtheUnitedStates,AustraliaandCanadacombinedduringthesameperiod.Anapproachtocriticalmineralsecurityneedstocastitsnetwidelytoencompassnicheminerals.Whilethefocushasunderstandablybeenonbatterymetalsandcopper,recenteventssuchastheexportcurbsonChinesegalliumandgermaniuminJuly2023havehighlightedthesignificanceofalesser-knowngroupofcriticalminerals,oftencharacterisedbysmallvolumes,buthighlevelsofsupplyconcentration.Theseillustratehowrelativelynichemineralssuchasmagnesium,high-puritymanganese,high-purityphosphorusandsiliconmaydisruptsupplychainsduetohighrelianceonasmallgroupofsuppliers.Abroadandboldstrategyisneededthatbringstogetherinvestment,innovation,recycling,rigoroussustainabilitystandardsandwell-designedsafetynets.Tobolsterglobalprogress,theIEAwillhostthefirst-everinternationalsummitoncriticalmineralson28September2023,bringingtogetherministersfrommineral-producingand-consumingeconomiesaswellasindustry,investorsandcivilsocietytodiscussmeasuresforcollectivelypromotingasecureandsustainablesupplyofcriticalminerals.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE9CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.KeymarketdevelopmentsCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE10CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Cleanenergytechnologydeploymentcontinueditsupwardmarchin2022,withmomentumexpectedtocontinuethrough2023andbeyondAnnualcapacityadditionsforsolarPVandwindandelectriccarsalesIEA.CCBY4.0.Source:IEA(2023),RenewableEnergyMarketUpdate–June2023,forsolarPVandwindcapacityadditions;IEA(2023),GlobalEVOutlook2023–April2023,forelectriccarsales.8016024032040020192020202120222023eGWSolarPV35%30%30609012015020192020202120222023eGWWind20%70%369121520192020202120222023eMillionElectricCars60%30%CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE11CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.TherapidriseofcleanenergyhasunderpinnedsignificantgrowthinmineraldemandDemandforkeymaterialsandshareofcleanenergyintotaldemandIEA.CCBY4.0.30%56%30609012015020172022ktLiCleanenergyOtherusesLithium6%16%800160024003200400020172022ktNickel17%40%408012016020020172022ktCobalt7%10%2040608010020172022ktNeodymiumCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE12CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Thankstoheighteneddemandandrisingprices,themarketsizeforenergytransitionmineralsdoubledoverthepastfiveyears,reachingUSD320billionin2022MarketsizeforkeyenergytransitionmineralsIEA.CCBY4.0.Note:ThemarketsizefornickelincludesbothClass1(batterygrade)andClass2nickel.Source:IEAanalysisbasedonS&PGlobal.10020030040020172022BillionUSD1.5x255075100201720222017202220172022201720226.7x3.1x1.9x2.5xCopperLithiumRareearthelementsCobaltNickelCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE13CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Ascleanenergydeploymenthitsnewrecords,energytransitionmineralsarebecomingamajorfocusfortheminingandmetalsmarketsDeploymentofcleanenergytechnologieshadanotherrecordyearin2022.Electriccarmarketswitnessedunprecedentedgrowthassalesexceeded10millionunitsin2022,withatotalof14%ofallnewcarssoldbeingelectric–upfromlessthan5%in2020.ThePeople’sRepublicofChina(hereafter,“China”)wasthefrontrunner,accountingforaround60%ofglobalelectriccarsalesin2022,followedbytheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStates.Electriccarsalesaregenerallylowoutsidethethreemajormarkets,buttherearepromisingsignsinsomeemergingmarketssuchasIndiaandIndonesia.Thankstotheincreasingavailabilityofaffordablemodelsandstrengthenedpolicysupport,EVsalesareexpectedtogrowstronglythrough2023.Over2.3millionelectriccarsweresoldinthefirstquarterof2023,about25%morethaninthesameperiodlastyear.AlongsidethestronggrowthofEVsales,investmentinenergystoragesystemsisgrowingevenfasterwithadoublingofcapacityadditionsin2022.Ourearlyestimatessuggestanotherdoublingofnewinstallationin2023,drivenbystronggrowthinutility-scalebatterysystems.Witharound340GWofcapacityaddition,globalspendingonrenewableshitanewrecordatalmostUSD600billionin2022,despitecostandsupplychainpressures.ThegrowthwasmainlydrivenbysolarPV.Chinaaloneaddedalmost100GWofsolarPVcapacityin2022,almost70%higherthanin2021,andisontracktoadd150GWin2023.TheEuropeanUnionalsosawremarkablegrowthinsolarPVadditionsthatwereupbyalmost50%comparedwith2021,resultingfromthepushtorampupinvestmentinrenewablesasEuroperespondstothecutsinRussiangasdeliveries.In2022,windcapacitydidnotgrowasfast,asthesectorwasexposedtopermittingbottlenecks,scheduledelaysandmarginpressures.However,onshorewindcapacityadditionsareexpectedtoreboundstronglyby70%in2023asdelayedprojectsstarttocomeonline.Thecontinuousincreaseincleanenergydeploymentinrecentyearshasledtoasignificantriseindemandforcriticalminerals.From2017to2022,demandforlithiumtripledwhilenickelandcobaltdemandincreasedby40and70%respectively.Coupledwithheightenedprices,themarketsizeofkeyenergytransitionminerals–namelycopper,lithium,nickel,cobaltandgraphite–doubled,reachingUSD320billionin2022.Thiscontrastswiththerelativelymodestgrowthofbulkmaterialssuchaszincandlead.Asaresult,energytransitionminerals,whichusedtobeasmallsegmentofthemarket,aremovingtocentrestageintheminingandmetalsindustry.In2022,thesharepricesofcriticalmineralminingcompaniesoutperformedthoseoftheoverallminingsectorbyawidemargin.Thecleanenergysectorhasbeenfirmlyinthedrivingseatofthisgrowth.In2022,theshareofcleanenergyapplicationsintotaldemandreached56%forlithium,40%forcobaltand16%fornickel,upfrom30%,17%and6%,respectively,fiveyearsago.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE14CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Afterthesurgein2021and2022,manycriticalmineralpricesstartedtomoderatein2023,butremainwellabovehistoricalaveragesPricedevelopmentforselectedenergytransitionmineralsandmetalsIEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:LCE=lithiumcarbonateequivalent.AssessmentbasedonLMELithiumCarbonateGlobalAverage,LMENickelCash,LMECobaltCashandLMECopperGradeACashprices(nominal).Source:IEAanalysisbasedonS&PGlobal.456789101112JanJunDecThousandUSD/tonneCopper2030405060708090100JanJunDecThousandUSD/tonneCobalt510152025303540JanJunDecThousandUSD/tonneNickel1020304050607080JanJunDecThousandUSD/tonneLCERange2016-20202320222021LithiumCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE15CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Withelevatedcommodityprices,rawmaterialcostsloomlargerinthetotalcostofkeycleanenergytechnologiesAveragepackpriceoflithium-ionbatteriesandshareofcathodematerialcostIEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:Cathodematerialcostsincludelithium,nickel,cobaltandmanganese.Othercellcostsincludecostsforanode,electrolytes,separatorandothercomponentsaswellascostsassociatedwithlabour,manufacturingandcapitaldepreciation.Source:IEAanalysisbasedonBNEF(2022).10%20%30%40%50%2004006008001000201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022USD/kWhCathodematerialOthercellcostPackcostShareofcathodematerial(rightaxis)CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE16CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.CleanenergytechnologypricescontinuedtoincreaseforthesecondyearinarowalthoughtherecentpricefallforcriticalmineralinputscouldprovidesomerespiteIEA.CCBY4.0.Note:TheIEAcleanenergyequipmentpriceindextrackspricemovementsofafixedbasketofsolarPVpanels,windturbinesandlithium-ionbatteries(forEVsandenergystorage).Pricesareweightedbasedonthesharesofglobalaverageannualinvestment.Source:IEAanalysisoncompanyfinancialreports,BloombergandBNEF.1252503755006250.51.01.52.02.520142016201820202022USD/kWh(nominal)MillionUSD/MW(nominal)EVbatteries(rightaxis)StoragebatteriesWindturbinesSolarpanelsAveragepricesforselectedtechnologies5010015020025020142016201820202022Index(2019Q4=100)IEAcleanenergyequipmentpriceindexCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE17CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.CriticalmineralsuppliesarehavingamajorimpactontheaffordabilityofenergytransitionsManycriticalmineralsthatarevitalforcleanenergytechnologiesexperiencedbroad-basedpriceincreasesin2021andearly2022,accompaniedbystrongvolatilityandsignificantpeaks,particularlyfornickelandlithium.Withtheexceptionoflithium,mostpricesbegantomoderateinthesecondhalfof2022.ExpectationsforChina’sreopeningunderpinnedabriefrallyattheendof2022,butpricesresumedtheirdeclinesinthefirstfewmonthsin2023,includinglithium,onthebackofweakconsumption,newsupplyplansandconcernsaboutapossiblerecession.China’sreopeninghasnotyettranslatedintoarevivalofindustrialactivities,astherecoveryhasbeendrivenmostlybyitsservicesector.BeyondChina,acrossmanyeconomies,manufacturingpurchasingmanagers’indicesareconsistentlyunderperformingtheirservicecounterparts,leadingtoweaknessindemandforindustrialmetals.Further,thereductioninEVsubsidiesandpricecutsforconventionalcarsinChinaputadditionalpressureonprices.Nonetheless,currentpricesformostmaterialsremainwellabovehistoricalaverages.Near-termpricesmaybedampenedbytherisksofaneconomicrecession,thepossiblespreadofthebankingcrisisandaplannedincreaseinsupplies.However,medium-termpricesformanyenergytransitionmineralsmayremainabovehistoricallevelsastheeconomyrecovers.Scheduledelaysorcostoverrunsremainanonnegligiblepossibilityformanyannouncedprojects,whilesustainedpolicysupportforcleanenergydeploymentissettopropupdemand.Additionally,supply-sideeventsmayinduceshort-termpricepressures,asseeninearly2023,withminesupplydisruptionsinChileandPeru,heavyrainfallinIndonesiaandBrazil,anddisruptedaluminiumproductionduetohydropowershortagesinChina.ChangesinlithiumpricesbetweenJanuaryandApril2023bypriceindexIEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:CIF=costinsuranceandfreight;FOB=freeonboard;EXW=ExWorks.Source:IEAanalysisbasedonS&PGlobal.AnotabletrendinrecentmonthshasbeenthesteeperdeclineinthepriceindexinChinacomparedwithotherregions.BetweenJanuaryand-80%-60%-40%-20%CIFNorthAmericaCIFEuropeGlobalaverageEXWChinabatteryCIFEuropeFOBNorthAmericaEXWChinaLithiumLithiumhydroxideCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE18CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.April2023,lithiumcarbonatepricesinChinaplummetedbyover60%whereasthoseinEuropedroppedbyonly20%.Thiswasmostlylinkedtodestockingacrossthebatterysupplychain,whichloweredapparentdemandforlithiumwhiletheunderlyingdemandhasremainedrobust.StartingfromMay2023,domesticlithiumpricesinChinaareshowingsignsofreboundwithgrowingoptimismforanear-termrecoveryindemand.Lowexchangestocklevelsareanadditionalareaofconcern.Fromaluminiumtocopperandtonickel,stocklevelsintheLondonMetalExchange(LME)remainathistoriclows,withlimitedsignsofrecovery,exacerbatedbytherecenteventsurroundingitsregisterednickelwarehouseinMarch2023.Thisleavesthemarketvulnerabletosupply-sideevents,geopoliticaldisruptionsorspeculativefinancialactivities.Higherormorevolatilemineralpricescouldhaveasignificanteffectonthecostsoftransformingourenergysystems.Inthe2010s,technologylearningandeconomiesofscaleledtoasubstantialreductioninthecostsofkeyenergytechnologies.However,thisalsomeansthatrawmaterialcostsnowmakeupalargershareofthetotalcostofcleanenergytechnologies.Forinstance,theshareofcathodematerialsinbatterycostswasunder5%inthemiddleofthelastdecade,butithasrecentlysurgedtoover20%in2021andnearly40%in2022.Whenanodematerialsandotherrawmaterialinputsareaddedin,theshareofrawmaterialsrisesfurther,underscoringtheimportanceofmineralpricesindeterminingtheaffordabilityofcleanenergytechnologies.TheIEA’scleanenergyequipmentpriceindexmonitorspricemovementsofarepresentativeglobalbasketofcleanenergyequipmentproducts,includingsolarPVpanels,windturbines,andlithium-ionbatteriesforEVsandenergystorage.Thisindexdeclinedconsistentlyatanannualaveragerateof13%from2014untiltheendof2020,afterwhichitstartedtorise.Bythesecondquarterof2022,theindexreachedthesamevalueasithadfouryearsearlier.Individualcleanenergytechnologypriceshavereflectedthistrend.Pricesofwindturbineshaverisenconsistentlybetween2020and2022,althoughtheyshowsomesignsofeasingin2023.PricesofsolarPVmodulesincreasedbetween2020and2021forthefirsttimeafteradecadeofdecliningprices.Theycontinuedtorisein2022,albeitataslowerpace,although2023couldbetheyearofreliefassiliconpricesgraduallystartdeclining.Unlikesolarandwind,pricepressuresdidnotarriveforbatteriesin2021,but2022becamethefirstyearthatpricesforbothstorageandEVbatteriessawanuptick,reversingadecadeoffallingcoststhathadresultedfromtechnologyinnovationandeconomiesofscale.Despitetheserecentsetbacks,itisnoteworthythatthepricesofallcleanenergytechnologiestodayaresignificantlylowerthanadecadeago.Asthingsstand,2023couldbeacrucialyearforcleanenergytechnologyprices.Whetherandhowquicklytheyresumeadownwardtrajectorywilldependonthespeedofinnovationandonthestabilityofmineralmarketsthatwitnessedsignificantvolatilityin2022aftertwoyearsofpandemic-relatedsupplychaindisruptionsfollowedbytheonsetofglobalgeopoliticaluncertainty.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE19CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Investmentincriticalmineralminingroseby30%in2022asstrengtheningmomentumforenergytransitionsoffersprospectsforrobustdemandgrowthCapitalexpenditureonnonferrousmetalproductionbymajorminingcompaniesIEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:Co=cobalt;Cu=copper;Ni=nickel.Fordiversifiedmajors,capexontheproductionofironore,coalandotherenergyproductswasexcluded.Source:IEAanalysisbasedoncompanyannualreportsandS&PGlobal.10203040502010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022BillionUSD(2022)LithiumspecialistTianqiLithiumPilbaraMineralsMineralResourcesGanfengLithiumSQMAlbemarleCu,Ni,CofocusedZhejiangHuayouChinaMolybdenumNorilskNickelKGHMFirstQuantumMineralsSouthernCopperCodelcoDiversifiedmajorGlencoreTeckResourcesFreeport-McMoRanValeAngloAmericanBHPRioTintoLithiumspecialistsFocusedplayers(Cu,Ni,Co)DiversifiedmajorsCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE20CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.DiversifiedminingmajorsaretakingamoremeasuredapproachtoinvestmentwhereasspecialistplayersaretakingmorerisksinpursuitoffuturegrowthCashgenerationanddispositiontrendsbymajorminingcompaniesIEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:Focusedplayersinclude“Lithiumspecialists”and“Focusedplayers(Cu,Ni,Co)”inthepreviouspage.Excludesinvestmentinmarketablesecuritiesandothers.Capitalexpenditurecoversallcommodities,includingnonferrousmetals.Reinvestmentratioinvestment=capitalexpenditureinnonferrousmetalproductionasapercentageofoperatingcashflow.Source:IEAanalysisbasedoncompanyfinancialreports.-50%-25%0%25%50%75%100%-100-5005010015020020142016201820202022CashflowfromoperationsEquityissuedDebtraised/repaidCapitalexpenditureAcquisition(netofdivestment)Dividend/sharerepurchasesReinvestmentratio(rightaxis)DiversifiedminingmajorsBillion-50%-25%0%25%50%75%100%-60-30030609012020142016201820202022Focusedplayers(Cu,Ni,Co,Li)BillionCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE21CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Explorationspendingcontinuedtomarchupwards,ledbyAustraliaandCanadaExplorationspendingforselectednonferrousmineralresourcesIEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:Excludesbudgetsforironore,coal,aluminium,goldanddiamonds.Otherscompriserareearthelements,potash/phosphateandmanyotherminormetals.Source:IEAanalysisbasedonS&PGlobal.123456720182019202020212022BillionUSD(2022)RestofworldAfricaAsiaPacificAustraliaLatinAmericaCanadaUnitedStatesByregion123456720182019202020212022OthersUraniumPlatinumSilverLithiumNickelZincCopperBycommodityCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE22CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.M&Aactivitiesforenergytransitionmineralassetswereweakerin2022thanin2021,butremainabovepre-CovidlevelsAnnouncedminingM&AdealvaluesforselectedenergytransitionmineralsIEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:M&A=mergerandacquisition.IncludebothcompanyandpropertydealsoverUSD1million.Streaming,royalty-relatedandearn-intransactionsareexcluded.Source:IEAanalysisbasedonS&PGlobal.51015202530354020152016201720182019202020212022BillionUSDGraphiteCobaltPlatinumLithiumNickelCopperCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE23CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Tradingliquidityforbatterymetalsatmajorexchangesstartedtopickup,buthassignificantscopeforfurtherdeepeningDailytradevolumeforkeybatterymetalsatmajorexchanges(left)andshareofannualproduction(right)IEA.CCBY4.0.Note:Cobalt(ChicagoMercantileExchange[CME],LME),lithium(CME,LME),nickel(LME,ShanghaiFuturesExchange[SHFE]),copper(CME,LME,SHFE),zinc(LME,SHFE).Source:IEAanalysisbasedonBloomberg.10%20%30%40%10203040LithiumCobaltNickelCopperZincMilliontonnesVolume(March2023)Shareofannualproduction(rightaxis)1234100200300400Jan21Jul21Jan22Jul22Jan23MilliontonnesTonnesLithiumCobaltNickel(rightaxis)CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE24CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.StrongcashflowsandthemomentumbehindenergytransitionsaredrivinggrowthininvestmentandexplorationspendingThankstohighcommodityprices,theminingindustryhadanotherstrongyearin2022,whichresultedinelevatedprofitabilityandcashflows.Inaddition,growingpolicysupporttodiversifycriticalmineralsupplychainspromptedmanyminingcompaniestoincreasetheirinvestmentincriticalmineralsdevelopment.Wehaveassessedtheaggregateinvestmentlevelsof20largeminingcompaniesthathaveasignificantpresenceindevelopingmineralsessentialfortheenergytransition.Thelistincludesdiversifiedminingmajorsandspecialiseddevelopersforspecificenergytransitionmineralssuchascopper,nickel,cobaltandlithium.Followingthe20%increasein2021,investmentspendingrecordedanothersharpuptickby30%in2022.Companiesspecialisinginlithiumdevelopmentrecordeda50%increaseinspending,followedbythosefocusingoncopperandnickeldevelopments.CompaniesbasedinChinanearlydoubledtheirinvestmentspendingin2022.Explorationspendingalsocontinueditsupwardmarchin2022,upby20%,drivenprimarilybyrecordgrowthinlithiumexploration,followedbycopperandnickel.CanadaandAustralialedthewaywithover40%growthyear-on-year,notablyinhard-rocklithiumplays,thankstofavourablepolicysupportsuchasCanada’sCriticalMineralExplorationTaxCreditthatwasintroducedin2022.ExplorationactivitiesarealsoexpandinginAfricaandBrazil.Incontrast,explorationspendingintheRussianFederation(hereafter,“Russia”)decreasedby30%asaresultofinternationalsanctionsandboycottsbyindividualexplorers.Chinaalsosawa10%declineinexplorationspendingduetoCovid-19relatedrestrictions.Intermsofcommodities,lithiumemergedastheclearleaderinexplorationactivities,withspendingincreasingby90%,followinga25%increasein2021.Uraniumalsoexperiencedasignificantincreaseinspending,risingby60%duetorenewedinterestinnuclearpoweramidconcernsoverRussiansupplies.Nickelwasaclosefollowerwitha45%growthrateforexploration,ledbyCanadawherehigh-gradesulphideresources,proximitytoexistinginfrastructureandaccesstolow-emissionselectricitycreateattractiveinvestmentopportunities.Strongcashflowsin2021and2022haveenabledtheminingindustrytoallocateagreateramountofcapitaltonewdevelopments,exploration,andmergersandacquisitions(M&As),whiletheremainingsurplushasbeenreturnedtoshareholdersandcreditorsthroughdividends,sharebuybacksanddebtrepayment.Basedontheassessmentof20companies’cashgenerationanddispositionpatterns,approximately50%ofthecapitalwasallocatedtoinvestmentwhilearound50%wasreturnedtoinvestorsandlenders.Followingthedipin2020and2021,theindustry’sreinvestmentratio,calculatedbydividingnonferrousmetalinvestmentbyoperatingcashflows,returnedtopre-Covidlevelsin2022.Thereisanotabledifferenceamongcompanytypes.DiversifiedminingCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE25CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.majorsingeneralweremorecautiousintheirgrowthinvestment,withthereinvestmentratioedginguponlyslightly.However,specialisedplayersfocusingonenergytransitionmineralsincreasedinvestmentbyover40%andallocatedagreaterportiontogrowthinvestment,buoyedbyanincreaseinprofits.Inthissegment,achangeinfinancingpatternswasobserved,withashiftfromdebtfunding,whichhadbeentheprimarysourceoffinancingpriorto2020,toequityfundingsince2021.Thisshiftreflectstheindustry’sgrowingdesireforfurtherexpansionaswellasinvestors’improvedsentimenttowardsthecriticalmineralssector.AtoverUSD20billion,M&Atransactionsrelatedtoenergytransitionmineralswerelowerin2022thanin2021,whentheyreboundedstronglyfromthedipin2020.CopperremainedasadominantfocusofM&Aactivities.RioTinto’sacquisitionofTurquoiseHillResources(USD3.1billion),whichincludedMongolia’sOyuTolgoimine,wasanotableexample.BHP’sacquisitionofOZMinerals(USD6.4billion),whichwascompletedinMay2023,wasanotherexample.Beyondcopper,lithium-relatedacquisitionrosefromUSD0.3billionin2020toUSD5.8billion2021beforedecliningtoUSD2.2billionin2022.RioTinto'sUSD825millionpurchaseoftheRinconLithiumProjectfromSentientEquityPartnersunderscoresthegrowingimportanceoflithiumasafocusofM&Aactivities.Nickel-relatedminingacquisitionwasminimalin2022althoughtherewasamajordealintherefiningsector–theacquisitionoftheYabulurefineryinAustraliabytheZeroCarbonInvestekconsortium(USD1.3billion).Thistransactionisnotincludedinouranalysis,whichfocusedonminingM&Aactivities.Despitethemodestfallin2022,M&Aactivitiesremainrobustinthefirsthalfof2023,especiallyforlithiumassets,withthemega-mergerbetweenLiventandAllkembeingaprimeexample(USD10.6billion).Asinvestmentintothesectorgrows,tradingliquidityforbatterymetalshasnotablyimprovedsince2022.Unlikebasemetals,batterymetalssuchaslithiumandcobalthavetraditionallybeentradedbasedonbilateralmultiyearcontracts,withlimitedactivityonmajorexchangessuchastheLME,theCME,andtheSHFE.However,earlysignsindicatethisisbeginningtochange.Cobalttradingvolumes,whichwerezeroattheendofJune2022,skyrocketedtoover500lots(tonnes)bytheendof2022,peakingat1300lotson17January2023.Lithiumtradingvolumeshavealsobeenontherise,albeitataslowerpace,reaching276lotsbyApril2023.Conversely,nickeltradinghascontinuedtotrenddownwards,indicatingthatthesectorhasnotfullyrestoredstakeholders'confidence.Thishighlightsthegrowingimportanceofspotpricingandthepotentialemergenceoffinancialinstrumentstohedgepricerisks.However,thetradingliquidityofbatterymetalsstilllagssignificantlybehindthatofotherbulkmaterials,despiterecentimprovements.Asitstands,dailytradedvolumeasapercentageofannualproductionrepresentslessthan1%forlithiumandcobalt,comparedwith10-30%formajormaterialssuchasnickel,zincandcopper.Thisunderscoressignificantpotentialtoincreasemarketliquidityaswellastheneedtoenhancemarkettransparencyasthesectorcontinuestogrow.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE26CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Despiteheadwindsinthewiderventurecapitalsector,criticalmineralsstart-upsraisedarecordUSD1.6billionin2022Early-andgrowth-stageVCinvestmentintocriticalmineralstart-ups,2017-2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Source:IEAanalysisbasedonCleantechGroup(2023).0.51.01.52.0201720182019202020212022Q12023BillionUSD(2022)OtherBatteryreuseBatteryandwasterecyclingRareearthextractionCopperextractionCobaltextractionLithiumextractionandrefiningCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE27CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Investorsarebackingstart-upswithnewprocessestobreakintocriticalmineralsupplychainsWithtechnical,regulatoryandpoliticaldevelopmentsallpointingtoalargefuturemarketforcriticalminerals,innovatorswithnewtechniquesforextractingandprocessingthemhavebeenabletoattractfundsfortestingandscale-up.In2022,despiteadipinoverallventurecapital(VC)fundingfortechnologyentrepreneurs,criticalmineralsstart-upsraisedrecordamountsofequity,reachingUSD1.6billion,ofwhichUSD0.25billionwasforhigherriskearly-stageventures.This160%year-on-yearincreasetookthecriticalmineralscategoryto4%ofallVCfundingforcleanenergyinthatyear.Thefirstquarterof2023hasbeenstrongforcriticalminerals,despiteaseveredownturninotherVCsegments,suchasdigitalstart-ups.Investmentssofarin2023putcriticalmineralsontracktoovertake2021levelsbytheyear’send,andbeat2022forearly-stagedealvaluealone.Themomentumforcriticalmineralsstart-upsin2023indicatesthatinvestorsexpectthepolicyenvironmenttoenablenewprojectstoreachfinancialclose,withasignificantsharegoingtotheunconventionalmineralresourcesinwhichsmallentrepreneursaremostactive.Reachingamarketsizeofmorethanonebilliondollarsisparticularlyimpressivegiventhatnocriticalmineralcompaniesraised“growth-stage”fundsbetween2016and2020.Growth-stagecompaniesrequiremorecapitalforcapital-intensivescale-up,butwhiletheystilldonottypicallygenerateprofitsyet,thisinnovationstageislesstechnicallyriskythanearly-stage,whichfundsinitialideas,businesscreationandprototyping.Growth-stagefundingforcriticalmineralsfirmsin2022rose160%fromits2021level,toUSD1.4billion.Whiletheoveralltrendislimitedtoarelativelysmallsampleofcompanies(159dealsfor87companiesintotalsince2010),thedatarevealaclearresponsetomarketsignals,strategicprioritiesandannouncedgovernmentfunding.Whereastheonlydealsinthissegmentpriorto2017wereintheareasofcopper,siliconandrareearthelements,in2022thelargestcategorywasbatteryrecycling.Forexample,GreenLi-ion,aSingaporeanstart-up,receivedUSD35millionoffundingin2022to2023,includingfromanelectricutiltyandanoilandgascompany.Thenextlargestcategorywaslithiumextractionandrefining,epitomisedbyEnergyExplorationTechnologies,aPuertoRicancompanydevelopingdirectlithiumextractionmethods,receivedUSD500millionin2022to2023,includingfromGeneralMotors,acarcompany.Regionally,companiesbasedintheUnitedStatesraisedmostofthefunds,at45%ofthetotalbetween2018and2022.Inparticular,USstart-upsraisedmostmoneyinbatteryrecyclingandlithiumextraction,aswellascobaltandmagnesiumrecovery.CanadianandChinesestart-upsarenotablyactiveinbatteryrecylingandlithiumrefining.Europeanstart-upshavebeensuccessfulatraisingmoneyforrareearthelements,batteryreuseandbatterymaterialsupply.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE28CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.CountriesareseekingtodiversifymineralsupplieswithawaveofnewpoliciesInresponsetothepressingneedtoensuresecuremineralsupplies,therehasbeenaproliferationofpolicyinitiativesoverthepastfewyears,includinglandmarkmeasuressuchastheEuropeanUnion’sbatteryregulationandCriticalRawMaterials(CRM)Act,theUS’sInflationReductionAct(IRA),Australia’sCriticalMineralsStrategyandCanada’sCriticalMineralsStrategy,amongothers.TheIEACriticalMineralsPolicyTrackerhasidentifiednearly200policiesandregulationsfrom25countriesandregionsworldwide,withover100oftheseenactedinjustthepastfewyears.Althoughcountriesapproachtheissuewithdifferentgoals,thereisgrowingrecognitionthatpolicyinterventionisneededtoensureadequateandsustainablemineralsuppliestomeettheneedsoftheenergytransition.Themajorityoftheseinitiativesshareacommonobjective:todiversifythecurrentsupplychains,whicharehighlyconcentrated.Theseeffortsaimtomarkadeparturefromthecurrentlydominantcommoditysupplymodel,whererawmaterialsareextractedfromresource-richnationsindevelopingeconomies,processedinChinaandthenshippedtoconsumingnationsasrefinedmetals.Countriesaretakingdifferentapproachestoachievethisgoal,ofteninfluencedbythepositionofcountrieswithinthesupplychain.Forexample,manycountrieswithlargeunderexploitedmineralresourcesarefocusingondevelopingtheirdomesticproductionandexpandingtheirvaluechains.Consumingnationsplacemoreemphasisonsecuritymechanisms,refiningcapacity,technologyinnovationandrecycling.Nonetheless,thepromotionofsustainableandresponsiblepracticesincriticalmineralssupplychainsremainsacommoncomponentofmanypolicyapproaches.MiningpoliciesInresponsetotheprojectedincreaseindemandforcriticalminerals,policymakers,particularlythoseinresource-richcountries,arereassessingtheirlegalframeworksformining.Thisinvolvesprovidingsupportforexploration,suchasCanada’s30%CriticalMineralExplorationTaxCredit.Innationsthataretraditionalsuppliersofcriticalminerals,thereisongoingmodernisationofminingpoliciestoaddressenvironmentalconcernsandfosterstakeholderparticipation.Forexample,theChileangovernmentreleaseditsnewNationalMiningPolicyframeworkinJanuary2022,whichwastheresultoftwoyearsofcollaborationinvolvingrepresentativesfromprivatecompanies,academiaandcivilsociety.Manycountriesarestrivingtocapturemorevaluefromtheextractionoftheirnaturalresources.Forexample,Mexiconationaliseditslithiumindustryin2022,andthereareongoingreformsinChilerelatedtocopperminingroyalties,aswellasaproposedrevisionofthelithiumconcessionsystem,withanincreasedrolegiventoastate-ownedplayer.Interventionsareextendingtootherpartsofthevaluechain.Amongresource-richcountries,IndonesiahasbannedtheexportofnickeloreCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE29CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.tonurtureitsmidstreamvaluechain,withapotentialexportbanbeingconsideredforbauxite,tinandcobalt.NamibiaandZimbabweisfollowingsimilarstrategieswithanexportbanofallunbeneficiatedmineralore.ArecentstudybytheOECDshowsthatexportrestrictionsoncriticalrawmaterialshaveseenafivefoldincreasesince2009.Nationsthatrelyonimportsarealsoreviewingthecompetitivenessoftheirminingpoliciestoenhancetheirself-sufficiencyincriticalmineralswhileupholdingenvironmentalsafeguards.Thisentailsidentifyingstrategicprojectsandstreamliningprocesses,suchastheestablishmentof“one-stop-shop”permitsorreducingpermitdelays,asproposedintheEUCRMAct.PublicsupportandtaxcreditsforcriticalmineralprojectsToovercometheCovid19pandemic,manygovernmentsintroducedinvestmentprogrammesaimedatenergytransitions,whichoftenincludedcriticalmineralsaspartofthepackage.IntheUnitedStates,aspartoftheInfrastructureInvestmentandJobsActsignedin2021,theDepartmentofEnergyisimplementingaUSD6billiongrantprogramme,halfofwhichisintendedtofunddomesticproductionofmaterialsneededfortheEVsupplychain,includingtherefiningofnickel,lithium,cobaltandrareearthelements(REEs).Theotherhalfisallocatedforbatterymanufacturingandrecycling.TheIRAintroducedaUSD7500creditfortheacquisitionofacleanvehicleundertheconditionthatalargeportionofcriticalmineralsaresourcedfromtheUnitedStatesoracountrysharingafreetradeagreementwiththeUnitedStates,andthatmostofthebatterycomponentsaremanufacturedinNorthAmerica.SincetheenactmentoftheIRA,overUSD45billionofinvestmentshavebeenannouncedforbatterysupplychainprojects,rangingfrommineralextractiontobatterymanufacturing.AustraliaalsoreleasedaninvestmentstrategywiththeModernManufacturingInitiative,whichprovidesfundingofAUD120million(Australiandollars)forthedevelopmentofnickelandcobaltrefineries,AUD15millionforREEprocessingandAUD6millionforlithiumhydroxide.CanadareleaseditsfirstCriticalMineralsStrategyinDecember2022,backedbyCAD3.8billion(Canadiandollars)support.ThenewCleanTechnologyManufacturingTaxCreditwasalsointroducedtosupportinvestmentsincriticalmineralextraction,recyclingandprocessing.AspartoftheFrance2030investmentprogramme,FrancehasannouncedEUR1billioninpublicsupporttocriticalmineralprojects,halfinloansandgrants(includingfiveprojectsselectedin2022)andhalfinvestedintoadedicatedpublic-privateequityinvestmentfund.Inadditiontominingandprocessingprojects,thereisalsosupportforR&Dactivities.TheEuropeanUnion’sHorizonEuropeprogramme,withanoverallbudgetofEUR95.5billion,fundsresearchandinnovationinstrategicvaluechains.ExamplesincludeEITRawMaterials,abodythatsupportsstart-upsandinnovativeprojectsrelatedtorawmaterials,andtheRawMatCopprogrammewhichusesearthobservationdatafromtheCopernicussatellitesystemtoassistintheexplorationandmonitoringofminingsites.CanadaintroducedtheCriticalMineralsResearch,DevelopmentandDemonstration(CMRDD)programme,whichhassupportedsixpilotanddemonstrationprojectsinthefieldofnickel,lithiumandREEs,withCAD14.1millionsofar.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE30CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.SupplysecurityAgrowingnumberofcountriesthatrelyoncriticalmineralsimportshaveintroducedpoliciestoenhancesupplysecurity.TheIEAisalsodevelopingavoluntarycriticalmineralsecurityprogrammewithitsmembercountriestoenhancepreparednessagainstpotentialdisruptions.Asafirststep,mostpoliciesaimtoincreaseunderstandingofpotentialrisks.Manynationshaverecentlyupdatedtheircriticalminerallistsandstrategiesinlightoftheevolvingmarketcontext.Forexample,Canadaupdateditslistin2021,theUnitedKingdomin2022,andtheEuropeanCommissionandtheUnitedStatesin2023.Somecountrieshavealsostrengthenedtheirmarketintelligencefunctionstogainbetterinsightsintothemarket.ExamplesincludeFrance’sObservatoryofmineralresourcesforindustrialclusters(OFREMI),theUnitedKingdom’sCriticalMineralIntelligenceCentre,andCanada’sCriticalMineralsCenterofExcellence.IntheCRMAct,theEuropeanCommissionhasproposedEU-widesupplymonitoringandstresstests,mandatoryinformationsharingamongEUmemberstates,andriskpreparednessexercisesforlargedownstreammanufacturers.Somejurisdictionshavebeenusingregulatorytoolstosecuresupplyandsupportalternativesourcingstrategies.Thesecaninvolvepublicprocurementrules,aswellasnationalagenciescoordinatingprocurement,offtakeagreements,andstockpiling.JapanandKoreahavesuchagenciesandhavebeenoperatingstockpilingsystems.TheEuropeanCommission'sCRMActincludesproposalsaroundstockpilecoordination,commonpurchasingandsupportforofftakes.InternationalcooperationInternationalcooperationoncriticalmineralsisrapidlydevelopingtoensurereliablemineralsupplies.Therehavebeennumerousbilateralagreements,alongsidemultinationalcooperations,toco-developcriticalmineralprojectsandensureimprovedaccesstomineralsupplies.TheUSIRAgivesprioritytomaterialssourceddomesticallyorfrompartnercountries,creatingacontextforanaccelerationofbilateraltradeagreements.TheUnitedStatesandJapanrecentlysignedatradeagreementspecificallycenteredoncriticalminerals,andfurtherbilateraltradeagreementswiththeEuropeanUnionareundernegotiation.TheMineralSecurityPartnership,launchedbytheUnitedStatesandkeypartnercountries,aimstofacilitatecross-investmentinnewminesandprocessingfacilitiesindiversifiedregions.Environmental,socialandgovernancepoliciesNearlyallcountriesenforceenvironmentalstandardsintheirdomesticmarketsthroughpermittingandotherconditions.Thereareseveraleffortstoincorporateduediligencerequirementsdirectlyintotheirregulatoryframeworkswithanaimtoenhancesupplychaintransparencyandencourageresponsiblesourcing.TheEUbatteryregulation,forexample,requiresimportersandmanufacturerstotrackthecountryoforiginoftherawmaterialsusedinbatteries.Policiesaimedatincreasingthescaleofrecyclingarealsogainingtraction.Recentpoliciesinvolverecyclingratetargets,informationdisclosurerequirementsaboutmaterialcompositionand“recycledcontent”obligationsfornewproducts.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE31CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Therearesomesignsthatenvironmental,socialandgovernancepracticesareimprovinginminingoperations…Gender,social,healthandsafetyindicatorsforselectedminingcompaniesIEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:AggregateddataforAlbemarle,AngloAmerican,BHP,CMOC,Codelco,FirstQuantumMinerals,Freeport-McMoRan,GanfengLithium,Glencore,MineralResources,NorilskNickel,RioTinto,SQM,TeckResourcesandTianqiLithium.Considersreporteddataforalloperations.Genderbalanceandinjuryrateindicatorsshowtheweightedaveragebyproduction.Source:IEAanalysisbasedoncompanyreports.5%10%15%20%25%2018201920202021FemaleshareofworkforceGenderbalance0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%4008001200160020002018201920202021MillionUSDCommunityprojectsPerrevenue(rightaxis)Socialinvestment0.51.01.52.02.520040060080010002018201920202021InjuriespermillionhoursofworkCasesofoccupationalillnessWorkforceinjuryrate(rightaxis)HealthandsafetyCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE32CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0....butmanyareasstilllackindustry-wideprogress,especiallyinenvironmentalsustainabilityEnvironmentalindicatorsforselectedminingcompaniesIEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:CO2-eq=carbondioxideequivalent.AggregateddataforAlbemarle,AngloAmerican,BHP,CMOC(onlyforGHGemissions),Codelco(onlyforGHGemissionsandwateruse),FirstQuantumMinerals,Freeport-McMoRan,GanfengLithium(onlyforGHGemissionsandwaste),Glencore,MineralResources,NorilskNickel,RioTinto,SQM(onlyforGHGemissionsandwaste),TeckResources,andTianqiLithium.Considersreporteddataforalloperations.Source:IEAanalysisbasedoncompanyannualreportsandS&PGlobal.246810121000200030004000500060002018201920202021CmpertmineralMcmWaterwithdrawalPerminedoutput(rightaxis)Wateruse246810121000200030004000500060002018201920202021kgperkgmineralMtWastegenerationPerminedoutput(rightaxis)Miningwaste0.050.100.150.200.250.30204060801001202018201920202021KgCO2eperkgmineralMtCO2-eqGHGemissionsPerminedoutput(rightaxis)GHGemissionsCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE33CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.IstheindustrymakingprogressonESG?Theminingindustryhasbeenassociatedwithahostofnegativeenvironmental,socialandgovernance(ESG)impacts,includinghumanrightsviolations,contributiontoarmedconflict,environmentalcontamination,deforestationandotherharms.Failuretomanagetheseimpactscouldhaveprofoundimplicationsforcleanenergytransitionsaswellasdamagetheenvironmentandcommunitiesinthevicinityofminingdeposits.Thereareindicationsthatcompaniesaresteppingupactionstoreduceoreliminateenvironmentalandsocialharmsassociatedwiththeiractivities.Someofthelargestminingcompanies–includingBHP,Glencore,RioTinto,Valeandothers–havecommittedtoachievenetzeroemissionsby2050acrosstheiroperations,toimprovepublicdisclosuresofESG-relatedinformation,topromotediverseandinclusiveworkforces,andtoreduceoccupationalinjuries.MajorindustryplayerspublishsustainabilitymetricsonGHGemissions,workerhealthandsafety,andotherESGaspectsthroughannualsustainabilityreports.ThesereportscanbroadenthepublicavailabilityofinformationonminingperformancebeyondoccupationalsafetyandGHGemissionstoincludedataonwateruse,landfootprintandrecoveredareas,wastegeneration,airpollutants,genderbalance,communityengagementandothertopics.However,therearelimitationsonwhatispubliclyavailable.Reporteddataareusuallyaggregatedatcompanylevel,combininginformationfromdifferentmineralresourcesacrossvariousregions.Apartfromafewcompaniesthataremostlydedicatedtocriticalminerals,metricsareoftendominatedbyhigh-volumecommoditiessuchasironoreandcoal.Also,whilemanyoperatorsfollowtheGlobalReportingInitiativeStandards,thechoiceofscopeandcriteriavariessubstantially.Therearesomecompaniesthatdonotreportonsustainabilityatall.Meanwhile,investorsareincreasinglyconcernedwithESGperformance,recognisingitiscloselytiedtosupplyandreputationalrisks.ESGperformanceisaffectingaccesstocapitalanditscost,pavingthewayforthepotentialemergenceofgreenpremiums.However,manystakeholdersarechallengedbythemultiplicityofstandardsandratingsalongsideobscurecompanyreporting.Differentinitiativesaddressparticularconcernsassociatedwithcertainmineralsorpartsofthesupplychain,butitisnotnecessarilyeasytoassessESGperformanceacrosscompanies.Todemonstratetheirperformance,someoperatorsareadheringtosite-levelsustainabilitystandardsverifiedbythirdpartiessuchasTowardsSustainableMining(TSM)andtheInitiativeforResponsibleMiningAssurance(IRMA).Bothinitiativeshaveseengrowinguptakeinrecentyears.TSMwascreatedbytheMiningAssociationofCanada,butnowhasparticipatingorganisationsinovertencountries,includingArgentina,AustraliaandBrazil.IRMAhascompletedauditsatmorethanadozensitesinAfrica,NorthAmericaandSouthAmerica–ratingoperationsagainstmetricsspanningtheentirerangeofESGCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE34CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.considerations,includinghumanrights,workersafetyandhealth,communityandstakeholderengagement,airandwaterpollution,andwatermanagement.TheIEAconductedaninitialassessmentofcompanyprogressacrossvariousESGdimensionsbasedonthepublicsustainabilityreportspublishedby20majorminingcompaniesthathaveastrongpresenceinenergytransitionminerals.ItrevealedamixedpictureforprogressondifferentESGdimensions.Thesecompanieshavemadeheadwayoncommunityinvestment,workersafetyandgenderbalance.However,therearemanyareaswhereprogresshasbeenmuchslower,especiallyonenvironmentalsustainability.GHGemissionsremainathighlevels,withroughlythesameamountbeingemittedpertonneofmineraloutputeveryyear.Waterwithdrawalsalmostdoubledfrom2018to2021.Duringthesameperiod,wastegenerationoscillatedaround5Gt,with2021intensitiesslightlyabove2018levels.Reportingvariessubstantiallyinbothconsistencyandbreadth.Somecompaniesprovideverygranularreporting,acrossseveralyears,withdataforhundredsofcategoriesanddetailedregionalinformation.Othersprovideonlyhighlightsonanaggregatelevel,coveringonlyahandfulofareas.Altogether,overalltheESGdimensionsreviewedduringthisassessment,onlyahandfulweredisclosedbymorethan15companies.Totalenergyconsumptionandscope1and2GHGemissionswerethemostreportedcategories.Duediligencechecks,fatalitiesandwasterecyclingweresomeofthecategorieswiththelowestlevelofdisclosure.Theindustryasawholewillfaceincreasingpressuretoprovidedetailed,transparentandgranularinformationthatallowsstakeholderstofullyunderstanditsperformance,compareitacrosscommoditiesandcompanies,andtrackprogressovertime.Manycustomersareaimingtotraceimpactsacrosstheentirelifecycleofproducts,includingmineralinputsandrelatedoperations.ESGcredentialsmaysoonberequiredonaproductbasisthroughtraceabilitysystems,productorbatterypassports.TheuptakeofsuchsystemswilldependonhowESGaffectssupplyagreements.ThereisaquestionmarkregardingtheextenttowhichESGfactorsarebeingseriouslyconsideredinconsumers’sourcingandinvestmentdecisions,beyondtheminingindustry.Differentproductionpathwayshavevaryingdegreesofenvironmentalimpact.Forinstance,theproductionofbattery-gradenickelfromlateriteresourcesbyconvertingnickelpigirontomatteisseveraltimesmoreenergy-intensivethantheproductionroutebasedonsulphideresources.Additionally,syntheticgraphiteanodeshavehigheremissionsthannaturalgraphiteanodes.However,despitetheavailabilityofcleanerproductionpathways,theBatteryMaterialsReviewsuggeststhatendusersandinvestorsarenotnecessarilyprioritisingthemintheirsourcingandinvestmentdecisions,althoughsomebatterymanufacturersstartedtotrackemissionsassociatedwiththeirsupplychain,givingpreferencetomineralswithalowerclimateimpact.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE35CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.DevelopmentsinthebatterysectorCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE36CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Globalbatterydemandforcleanenergyapplicationsincreasedbytwo-thirdsin2022,mainlyfortransportbutwithpowersectorstoragegrowingfastBatterydemandinthecleanenergysectorbysegmentandregionIEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:LDVs=light-dutyvehicles,includingcarsandvans.Energystorageincludesbothutility-scaleandbehind-the-metrestorage.Intheleftchart,Othertransportincludesmedium-andheavy-dutytrucksandtwo-/three-wheelers.Source:IEA(2023),GlobalEVOutlook2023.1002003004005006002016201720182019202020212022GWhperyearLDVsBusOthertransportEnergystorage1002003004005006002016201720182019202020212022GWhperyearChinaEuropeUnitedStatesOtherCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE37CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.AconsumerpreferenceforbiggerconventionalcarsisbeingreplicatedintheEVsector,pushinguptheaveragesizeofbatteriesDevelopmentsofaveragebatterysizeinkeyregions(left)andcarmodelavailabilitybysegment(right)IEA.CCBY4.0.Note:BEV=batteryelectricvehicle;ICE=internalcombustionengine.Intheright-handchart,distributionisbasedonthenumberofavailablemodels,notsales-weighted.Source:IEA(2023),GlobalEVOutlook2023.20406080100201720182019202020212022kWhpervehicleNorthAmericaOECDAsiaEuropeanUnionChinaAveragebatterysizeforpassengerBEV20%40%60%80%100%WorldChinaEuropeUnitedStatesWorldBEVtypesin2022SmallcarMediumcarCrossoverLargecarSUVICECriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE38CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Cathodechemistrychoicesarebifurcatingtowardshigh-nickelorLFPwhileanodechemistriesseeagrowingadoptionofsilicon-dopedgraphiteEvolutionofsalessharesforEVbatteries(cars)bycathodeandanodechemistry,2018-2022IEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:LFP=lithiumironphosphate;NCA=nickelcobaltaluminium;NMC=nickelmanganesecobalt.Si/Creferstosilicon-graphiteanodes,withthesilicondopingratioalongside.Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromEVVolumes,BenchmarkMineralsIntelligenceandBNEF.20%40%60%80%100%201720182019202020212022CathodeNCANMC333NMC532/622NMC721/811LFPOther20%40%60%80%100%20182019202020212022AnodeGraphiteSi/C5%Si/C10%CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE39CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Globalbatterydemandfortransportandenergystoragehadarecordyear,whilechemistriesevolvedinanattempttoaccommodatetheeffectsofvolatilemineralpricesIn2022,demandforlithium-ionbatteriesintheautomotivesectorincreasedbyaround65%toreach550GWh,upfrom330GWhin2021.Thisstemmedprimarilyfromthegrowthinelectricpassengercarsales,withnewregistrationsin2022being55%higherthanthepreviousyear.InthePeople’sRepublicofChina(hereafter,“China”),batterydemandforvehiclesgrewbymorethan70%in2022aselectriccarsalesroserapidly.BatterydemandintheUnitedStatesgrewbyaround80%duringthesameyear,despiteelectriccarssalesonlyincreasingaround55%relativeto2021.ThiswasduetotheaveragebatterysizeofelectriccarsintheUnitedStatesbeing40%higherthantheglobalaverage,mainlybecauseoftherelativelyhighershareofSUVsinthecountrycomparedwithothermajormarkets.However,thegrowingappetiteforlithium-ionbatteriesin2022wasnotlimitedtoEVs.Thebatteryenergystoragemarketalsoexperiencedremarkablegrowth,withthemarketsizenearlydoublingto80GWh(combinedforutility-scaleandbehind-the-meter),markingoneofthelargestannualincreasesindeploymenteverwitnessedinthissector.ThisburgeoningdemandhasledautomakerstofollowinthefootstepsofthetrendpioneeredbyTesla’sPowerwallanddirectlyenterthebatteryenergystoragemarket.In2022,GeneralMotorsandToyotalaunchedbehind-the-meterenergystorageproducts.ApartfromthegrowingsalesofEVs,theincreasingbatterysizeisalsoakeyfactordrivingdemandgrowthforbatteriesand,inturn,forcriticalminerals.TheIEAhasbeenraisingthequestionofhowthegrowingconsumerpreferenceforlargercarswillimpactfutureemisssionsfromthetransportsector.Theaveragebatterysizeforpassengerelectriccarshasbeenonanalmostunbrokenrisingtrendformanyyearsinnearlyeverymajormarket.WhilemoreEVmodelsbecomeavailableonthemarket,thereisvisibleevidencethatthetrendoffavouringlargervehiclesseeninconventionalcarmarketsisbeingreplicatedintheEVmarketasautomakersseekhigherprofitsandconsumersoptforlargercars,oftenbeyondwhattheyneed.Ifthistrendpersists,itwillimposeadditionalpressureonbatterysupplychainsandfurtherincreasedemandforthecriticalmineralsrequiredtomakethebatteries.Batterychemistrytrendshaveshownsomemajordevelopmentssince2019.Cathodechemistrieshavedemonstratedavisiblebifurcationinthepastfewyears.Ontheonehand,nickelmanganesecobalt(NMC)chemistrieswithhighcobaltcontent(orlownickelcontent)suchasNMC333(alsoreferredtoasNMC111)arebeingphasedoutinfavourofNMC721,NMC811(high-nickel/low-cobalt)andevenlowercobalt-contentchemistries.Ontheotherhand,theaffordableandsafebutlessenergy-denselithium-ironphosphatechemistry(LFP)hasbeenmakingadecisivecomebackandsteadilyincreasingitsmarketsharesthankstostrongsupportfromlocalandglobal(Tesla)automakersinChina,CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE40CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.leadingtorenewedinterestinthechemistryfromautomakersintheWestaswell.Volkswagen’splanstoproduceentry-levelmodelsinEuropewithLFPbatteriesandFord’sdecisiontobuildanLFPbatterymanufacturingplantintheUnitedStatessignificantlyadvanceproductioncapacityofthechemistryoutsideChinainthecomingyears.BoththeNMCandLFPdevelopmentshavecloselinkstothecriticalmineralsthatareneededfortheproductionofbatteries:whilereducingcobaltcontenthasbeenadecades-longendeavourforcompaniesaimingtoreducecostsandmitigatesocialrisksforbatterymanufacturing,theriseofLFPistriggeredbythefactthat,ratherthanthreeormore,thisvariantusesjustonekeycriticalbatterymineral,namelylithium,reducingconcernsaroundcriticalmineralsupplies(albeitnotcompletely,seeBox1).Ontheanodesideofdevelopments,graphiteremainsthedominantchoicebutthemarketshareofgraphitedopedwithsilicon,whichimprovesitscapacity(dependingonthequantityofsilicon),hasbeenwitnessingasteadyincreasesince2018,reachingaround30%ofthemarketsharein2022.Takingstepsinacompletelydifferentandpromisingdirection,sodium-ionbatteries,whichrelyprimarilyontheabundantelementofsodiumandavoidtheuseofalmostanycriticalmineralsinsizeableamounts,witnessedaleapforwardinearly2023withtheworld’slargestbatterymanufacturer,ContemporaryAmperexTechnologyCo.,Limited(CATL),andthelargestEVmaker,BYD,bettingonthistechnology.Nevertheless,withtheadvantagesinenergydensityandeconomiesofscalethatlithium-ionbatteriescurrentlyhave,itremainstobeseenhowquicklyandtowhatextentsodium-ionbatteriescanreplacelithium-ionbatteries(seeBox2).CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE41CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Box1.DoestheresurgenceofLFPimplyamoresecurefutureforglobalbatterymarkets?LFPbatteriescontrastwithotherchemistriesintheiruseofironandphosphorusinsteadofthemorecriticalnickel,manganeseandcobaltfoundinNCAandNMCvariantsoflithium-ionbatteries.ThedownsideofLFPisthattheirenergydensitytendstobesignificantlylowerthanthatofNMCandNCAchemistriesalthoughthegaphasnarrowednoticeablywiththecell-to-packdesign.Ingeneral,anincreaseinthemarketshareofLFPbatteries,aswearewitnessingtoday,implieslowerlevelsofmineralsecurityconcernsduetotheabsenceofcobalt,nickelandmanganesewhosesupplychainsaremoregeographicallyconcentratedandpronetodisruptions.Nevertheless,thisdoesnotmeanthatLFPbatteriesarefreefromsupplychainconcerns.LFPbatteriescontainphosphorus,whichisalsousedinlargevolumesforfertiliserproduction.DependingontheevolutionoftheLFPmarketshareforEVs,thepossibilityofconflictingdemandsforphosphorusmayariseinthefuturebetweenbatterymanufacturingandtheagriculturesector.Furthermore,significantregionalimbalancescouldalsoariseinthephosphorussupplychain,withpossiblebottlenecksbothintermsofidentifiedresourcesandprocessing.Around70%ofknownresourcesofphosphaterockaregeographicallyconcentratedinMoroccoandtheWesternSahararegion.Ontheprocessingside,currentlythehighpurityphosphorusneededforLFPbatteriescanbeproducedonlybyonemethodwiththerefiningcapacitiesexistinginonlyfourcountries-China,theUnitedStates,KazakstanandVietNam.SomejuniorminersareexploringnewdepositsinCanadaandNorway.Afinalconsiderationistheprice.Whileitisthecheapestvariantofalithium-ionbattery,theincreaseinlithiumpricesin2022causedalargerrelativejumpinLFPbatterypricesincomparisonwithotherchemistries.ThepricehikeforLFPwasestimatedtobearound25%comparedwithlessthan15%forNMCbatteries.LFPbatteriesremainfarlessexpensivethanNCAandNMCperkilowatt-hourbutthepricedevelopmentsoflastyearshowthattheracebetweendifferentbatterychemistriesisfarfromover.Priceindexforselectedbatterychemistries,2020-2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Source:IEAanalysisbasedonBNEF.80100120140160202020212022LFPNCANMCIndex(LFP2020=100)CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE42CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.EVmakersarebecomingseriousaboutcriticalmineralsupplies;therehasbeenanotablepick-upinstrategicinvestmentintotherawmaterialsectorsince2021Top10EVmakers’involvementintherawmaterialsupplychainMarketplayerLong-termofftakeInvestmentinminingInvestmentinrefiningLithiumNickelOthersLithiumNickelOthersLithiumNickelOthersBYDOOOOTeslaOOOOOOOVWGroupOOOOOGeneralMotorsOOOOOOStellantisOOOOOOHyundaiOBMWOOOOOGeelyAutoRNMAllianceOOOOOMercedes-BenzONotes:VW=Volkswagen.Top10EVmakersaccountedforaround70%marketsharein2022.O=before2021;O=after2021.Source:IEAanalysisbasedoncompanyannouncementsandnewsarticles.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE43CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.EVbatterycellmakersarefollowingthesamepathway;topplayersincreasedtheirrawmaterialinvestmentssignificantlyinrecentyearsTop7batterycellmakers’involvementintherawmaterialsupplychainMarketplayerLong-termofftakeInvestmentinminingInvestmentinrefiningLithiumNickelOthersLithiumNickelOthersLithiumNickelOthersCATLOOOOOOOOOOLGESOOOOOOOOOBYDOOOOPanasonicOOOOSKOnOOOOOOOSamsungSDIOOOOCALBNotes:Top7cellmakersaccountedfor86%ofmarketsharein2022.O=before2021;O=after2021.Source:IEAanalysisbasedoncompanyannouncementsandnewsarticles.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE44CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Long-termofftakesbecameintegralforEVcellmanufacturersandOEMs’sourcingstrategy,butmanyplayersaretakinganextrastepbyinvestinginthecriticalmineralsvaluechainInrecentyears,therehasbeenanoticeablemismatchinthepaceofdevelopmentswithintheEVsupplychain.Onthemanufacturingfront,theindustryiswitnessingasurgeinannouncementstobuildnewbatterygigafactories.Whenalltheannouncedprojectsaresummedup,theygetclosetotherequiredscaleintheIEANetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario,whichachievesnetzeroemissionsgloballyby2050.Although“announced”doesnotmeanthatalltheseprojectswillcometofruition,thistrendisanencouragingsignofprogresstowardsclimategoals.However,theexpectedpaceofgrowthinmineralsuppliesdoesnotmatchthatofmanufacturingcapacityadditionsforEVbatteries.Thishasledtoconcernsamongautomakers,batterycellmakersandequipmentmanufacturersaboutsecuringrawmaterialsupplies,promptingmajormarketplayerstoexploredifferentfinancialandsourcingstrategiestosecuremineralsupplies.Worriesaboutsecurityofsupplytendtopushindustryprocurementstrategiestowardslong-termofftakeagreements–bindingagreementstopurchaseacertainquantityofcriticalmineralsoveranextendedperiod.Tesla’smajorlong-termofftakesincludeafive-yearcontractwithAustralia’sLiontownResourcestosourcelithiumspodumeneconcentrate,starting100000tonnesin2024andgrowingto150000tonnesinsubsequentyears,andafive-yearcontractwithnickelprocessingcompaniesinIndonesiaworthUSD5billion.GeneralMotorsinkedalong-termofftakecontracttoreceive25000tonnesofbatterygradenickelsulphateannuallyfromValeCanadastartingfromthesecondhalf2026.BMWGroupalsosignedaUSD335millionofftakedealwithUS-basedLiventtosourcelithiumhydroxideinAustralia.Renaulthasaseven-yeardealwithManagemGrouptoannuallysource5,000tonnesofcobaltsulphatefromMoroccoandafive-yeardealwithVulcanEnergytosource6000tonnesto17000tonnesoflithiumannually.Whilelong-termofftakecontinuestoplayanimportantrole,arecentinvestmenttrendshowsEVOEMsandbatterycellmanufacturerstakinganextrasteptoinvestinpartofthecriticalmineralsvaluechainsuchasmining,refining,precursormaterialsandcathodeproduction,especiallyfromaround2021.Thesemovementsareunderpinnedbyexpectationsthatacquiringastakewouldenableastrongercontroloverthecriticalmineralssupply,helpsafeguardtheirproductionpipelineandmitigateexposuretomarketrisksinthelongerterm.CATL,thelargestbatterycellmakerinChina,hasmadetheacquisitionofcriticalmineralassetsacentralelementofitsstrategy.Forinstance,CATL’ssecond-largestshareholder,SichuanCATL,acquireda25%stakeworthUSD3.7billioninCMOC,thesecond-largestcobaltproducerintheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo.ACATL-ledconsortiumalsowonabidtodeveloplithiumreservesinBolivia,withaplantoinvestoverUSD1billionintheproject’sfirstphase.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE45CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Othermarketplayers’acquisitionshavebeenmostlyintheminingsegmentofcriticalmineralswhichsawasharprisesince2021.LGChemical,aparentcompanyofLGEnergySolution,currentlyholdsa5.7%stakeofPiedmontLithium.BYDisnegotiatingtheacquisitionofsixunnamedlithiumminesinAfricacontainingmorethan25Mtoforegrading2.5%lithiumoxide.SKOnissettoacquirea10%stakeinLakeResources,anAustralianlithiumdeveloper,withtherightstosecureupto230,000tonnesfortenyearsstartingfromthefourthquarterof2024.GeneralMotorsannouncedanewinvestmentofUSD650millioninLithiumAmericastodevelopNevada'sThackerPasslithiumminingproject.Stellantisacquireda8%stakeworthUSD52millioninVulcanEnergy,anAustralian-Germanlithiumstartup,andextendeditspreviousfive-yearofftakedealtotenyears.Whilethescaleofinvestmentisgreaterintheminingsector,investmentinrefineriesalsoincreasedinrecentyears.TeslaannouncedaplantobuildanewlithiumhydroxiderefineryontheTexasGulfCoastinOctober2022.VolkswagenGroupannounceditsplantobuildanickeloreproductionandprocessingplantinIndonesiainJuly2022.InvestmentintheoveralllifecycleoftheEVvaluechainhasalsobeenemerging.AunitofCATLissettojoinlocalstate-ownedgroupsinIndonesiatobuildUSD6billionmining-to-batteriescomplexwhichwillincludenickelminingandprocessing,batterymaterials,recycling,andbatterymanufacturingfacilities.AconsortiumledbyLGEnergySolution,theworld’ssecondlargestEVbatterymaker,announcedplanstoinvestUSD9billionintheentireEVbatteryvaluechaininIndonesia,includingsmeltingandrefiningofnickel,andmanufacturingcathodematerials.InCanada,GeneralMotors,BASF,POSCOandValeaimtodevelopabatteryhubinBécancour,Quebec,includingrawmaterials,cathodeandrecyclingoperations.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE46CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.AsignificantamountofbatteryrecyclingcapacityisbeingdevelopedmainlyinChina,EuropeandtheUnitedStatesEstablishedandplannedbatteryrecyclingcapacitybyrecyclingtechnologyandregion,2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:ROW=restofworld.Basedon53identifiedbatteryrecyclingprojects.Source:IEAanalysisbasedonBaumetal.(2022),Lithium-IonBatteryRecycling-OverviewofTechniquesandTrends,BNEFandcompanyannouncements.100000200000300000400000500000600000PlannedEstablishedPlannedEstablishedPlannedEstablishedPlannedEstablishedPlannedEstablishedROWJapan&KoreaEuropeUSChinaRecyclingcapacity(tonne/year)PyrometallurgyHydrometallurgyPyro/hydrocomboUnknown...800000900000CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE47CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Scrapfrommanufacturingprocessesisdominatingtoday’srecyclingpool,butthisissettochangebytheendofthedecadeRecyclingoflithium-ionbatteriesisstillinitsnascentstages.Today,thevastmajorityofrecyclingcapacityislocatedinChina,whichisalsohometothelargestEVfleetandbatterymanufacturingcapacityintheworld.Atanestimated230ktperyear,theestablishedrecyclingcapacityinChinais1.5timeslargerthanthecombinedcapacityinEurope.Batteriesbeingrecycledtodayarepredominantlycomingfromconsumerelectronicsandbatterymanufacturingscrap.Untiltherearesufficientquantitiesofbatteriestorecycleattheendoflife,scrapfrommanufacturingprocessesissettoplayanimportantrole.However,thisisexpectedtochangedramaticallyasalmost150GWhofusedEVbatterieswillreachtheendoftheirfirstlifeby2030.SomeofthelargestrecyclingfacilitiesalreadyinoperationincludetheGermancompanyReduxwhichhasarecyclingcapacityof50ktperyearandachievesametalrecyclingrateof95%andtheGuangdongBrunpGroupinChinawhichhasabatteryrecyclingcapacityof30ktperyearwitharecoveryrateover99%fornickeland97%forcobaltandmanganese.In2023,GlencoreandLi-CycleannouncedaplantostudythefeasibilityofdevelopingalargebatteryrecyclinghubinEurope.Mostestablishedbatteryrecyclingoperationsrelyonpyrometallurgy,butthemajorityoftheplannedcapacityuseseitherhydrometallurgyoramixofthetwobecausehydrometallurgyislessenergy-intensiveandallowsforhigherrecoveryrate.Despiteprogressinsomekeyregions,effortsforrecyclingneedtobescaledupsignificantlyinthecomingyears,particularlyinEuropeandNorthAmericawherethedeploymentofEVsisthelargestoutsideofChina.Europeisestimatedtorepresentaround15%ofglobalscrappoolin2030accordingtoBenchmarkMineralIntelligence.Forthis,furtherpolicysupporttoincentiviserecycling,standardisebatterydesignwithrecyclinginmindandformulateregulationsforthemovementofend-of-lifeEVbatteriesisneeded.China,EuropeandtheUnitedStateshaveallrecentlytakennewpolicystepsinthisarea.InChina,theMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnologyissuedtheInterimMeasuresfortheManagementofRecyclingandUtilisationofPowerBatteriesandNewEnergyVehicleswherebymanufacturerswouldhavetheresponsibilitytoclosetheloopforbatteries.IntheUnitedStates,thestatesofCaliforniaandWashingtonhaverecentlypassedbillsforbatteryrecyclingandintheEuropeanUnion,thenewCriticalRawMaterialsActrequires15%ofannualconsumptiontobefromrecycledsourcesby2030.Goingbeyondtheroleofpolicies,OEMsareincreasinglyconsideringverticalintegrationofthecarmanufacturingandrecyclingprocessesorcollaboratingwithrecyclingcompaniesattheearlystageoftheplanningprocesses.Tofacilitatesuchcooperation,theGlobalBatteryAllianceistestingtheprototypeforabatterypassporttoassistinthetrackingandpropermanagementofbatteries.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE48CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Box2.Newbatteriesonthehorizon?AsglobalEVsalesanddeploymentofvariablerenewablessetnewrecordseachyear,innovationinlithium-ionbatterieshasevolvedandimprovedmorerapidlyinthepastdecadethansomeoftheindustry’smostambitiousexpectations.However,achievingglobalclimategoalsrequiresafurtherimprovementinbatteryperformancetobringbetterandcheaperbatteriestothemarket.Severalpromisingdevelopmentsareunderway.Academicandcorporatelaboratoriesarehuntingforwaystoimprovethetechnology–boostingvolumetricandgravimetricenergydensity,speedingchargingtime,targetingmaterialefficiencyandsubstitution,enhancingsafetyandcuttingcosts.Severalnewtechnologiescouldseeprogressin2023,thoughtheywilllikelytakelongertogainsignificantmarketshares.Sodium-ionbatteriesmadequitearippleinearly2023.Thesebatterieshaveadesignsimilartothatofconventionallithium-ionbatteries,includingaliquidelectrolyte,butinsteadofrelyingonlithium,theyusesodiumasthemainconductingelement.Theymaynotimproveenergydensitybuttheycouldcutcostssignificantlybecausetheyrelyoncheaper,less-criticalmaterialsthanlithium-ionbatteries.TheiEVA50bytheChinesecompanyHiNA(aJAC-Volkswagenjointventure)becamethefirstsodium-ionbatteryequippedelectriccar.ItwillbefollowedbytwootherChinesecars:CATLandtheSeagullbyBYD,withmassproductionslatedtostartin2023inbothcases.ExamplesofcompaniesworkingonandinvestinginR&Dforsolid-stateandsodium-ionbatteriesasofApril2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Note:Non-exhaustivebasedonarepresentationofinterestinnovelbatterytechnologies.Source:IEAanalysisbasedoncompanyannouncements.Butforsodium-ionbatteriestotrulycompete,itneedstobeseeniftheywillbeabletomeettheneedsforEVrangeandchargingtime,whichiswhyseveralcompaniesaretargetinglessdemandingapplicationstostart,suchasstationarystorageormicromobility.DespitetheseCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE49CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.limitations,planstoproducesodium-ionbatteriesarepickingupwithover100GWhofproductioncapacityinthepipeline,mostlyinChina.Evenwithinthestandardlithum-ionbatteryclass,theresurgenceofimprovedLFPcathodes(LFP2.0)mayhaveabreak-outyearin2023,furtherpenetratingthelightdutyvehiclesegmentthatwaspreviouslybiasedtowardsthemoreenergy-denseNMCandNCAchemistries.RecentimprovementsinLFPchemistryandmanufacturinghavehelpedboosttheperformanceofthesebatteries,andcompaniesaremovingtoadoptthetechnology.LFPmarketshareisgrowingquickly,fromunder10%oftheglobalEVmarketin2018toalmost30%accordingtovariousestimatesin2022.TeslaisalreadyusingLFPbatteriesinsomemodelsandregions,andautomakerssuchasFordandVolkswagenannouncedthattheyplantostartofferingsomeEVmodelswiththechemistrytoo.Furthermore,theadventofalithiummanganeseironphosphatevariantoftheLFPbatterycouldprovideevenhigherdensitythanconventionalLFP,withmassproductionexpectedtostartin2024.Untilrecently,batterytechnologydevelopmenthasfocusedmostlyonthecathodebutimprovementisalsomadeonanodes.Theenergydensityandchargingspeedsofgraphiteanodeshavebeensignificantlyboostedbydopingthegraphiteanodewithsilicon.ThestartupOneDBatterySciencesworkingonstate-of-the-artsilicon-graphiteblendedanodeshaspartneredwithGeneralMotorsandSionicEnergyandaimstobringthemtomarketin2023.Solid-statebatteriesgoevenfurtherbyswitchingthetraditionalgraphiteanodestolithiummetalanodesorpuresilicon,whichcouldsignificantlyenhanceenergydensityandthermalsafety.Theseanodeshavesignificantlyhigherchargecollectioncapacitythangraphiteandmakestheanodemuchthinnertoimproveenergydensity,whilethesolidelectrolyteimprovesthermalstabilityovertheliquidelectrolytesinincumbenttechnologies.CompaniessuchasQuantumScape,SolidPower,FactorialEnergy,Bolloré,Panasonic,Samsung,ProLogium,andHydroQuébecaresurgingaheadintheirdevelopmentwithautogiantssuchasVolkswagen,BMW,Ford,GeneralMotors,StellantisandHyundaibettingstronglyonthem.Inthelong-term,lithium-sulphurbatteriesofferthepotentialtodivergecompletelyfromallcommercialchemistriestodate,pushingtheboundariesofcurrentlyavailableenergydensitiesandevensurpassingtheimprovementsofthesolid-statebattery.Whiletheseinnovationscouldusherinaneweraforbatterycompactness,EVrangeandchargingtimes,significanttechnologicalhurdlesneedtobeovercomeforthistechnologytoscaleup.Nonetheless,rapidchangesinbatterychemistriescouldprovechallengingfortherecyclingindustryastherewouldbeaneedforconstantadaptation.Furthermore,theuseoflower-valuematerielsasinLFPorsodium-ionbatteriescouldpotentiallylowerthemonetaryincentivetorecyclethesebatterieswithoutstrongpolicysupport.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE50CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.KeytrendsbyindividualcommodityCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE51CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Copperproductionisstartingtogrowafterflatyears,butmedium-termrisksremain;lithiumsupplyiscontinuingitsstrongupwardjourneyProductiontrendsforcopperandlithiumIEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:LCE=lithiumcarbonateequivalent.DRC=DemocraticRepublicoftheCongo.Source:IEAanalysisbasedonS&PGlobalandWoodMackenzie.2020202120222023eLithiumchemical28%34%33%510152025302020202120222023eMtOthersArgentinaJapanChinaAustraliaDRCPeruChileMinedcopper4%3%1%2020202120222023eRefinedcopper2%3%4%200400600800100012002020202120222023ektLCELithiumrawmaterials30%38%32%CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE52CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.TrendsforcopperandlithiumCopperSincethesecondhalfof2022,copperpriceshavebeentrendingdownwards,althoughtheywereoccasionallyproppedupbysupplydisruptionsinChileandPeru,expectationsforthere-openingofthePeople’sRepublicofChina(hereafter,“China”),andlowinventorylevels.Priceshavecontinuedtofallinthefirstfewmonthsof2023asnewsuppliescameonlinewhileChinesedemandremainssubdued.Copperproductionstartedtopickupin2022afterseveralflatyears.TheQuellavecomineinPerustartedoperationinJuly2022andtheexpansionatKamoaKakulaintheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongomadeasizeablecontributiontoproductiongrowth.Otherexistingmines,suchasOyuTolgoiinMongoliaandQuebradaBlancainChile,aremovingfromtheexpansionphasetoproduction.TheUdokanprojectintheRussianFederation(hereafter,“Russia”)isscheduledtobeginoperationin2023,producing100kt/yearandeventuallyaimingtosupply400kt/yeartoAsianmarkets,inparticularChinaandIndia,althoughsanctionscouldaffectitsdevelopment.Thesenewsupplies,coupledwithrelativelymodestdemandgrowth,arelikelytoputtheoverallmarketbalanceintosurplusin2023and2024.Acloserlookbeyond2024,however,revealsadifferentstory.Existingoperationsarestillencounteringchallenges,asChilefacesdecliningoregradeandwatershortages,andprotestsfromlocalcommunitiescoulddisruptPeruviansupplies.Moreover,thelackofhigh-quality,large-scaleprojectsinthepipelineindicatesthattherateofproductiongrowthmaydecelerateafter2024.ThisimpliesthatthemarketcouldturnintodeficitifdemandweretoincreaseduetotherecoveryoftheChineseeconomyandtheaccelerationofenergytransitions,whichwouldhavelong-termpriceimplications.LithiumInjustadecade,thelithiumindustryhasundergoneadrastictransformation,withbatteriesnowbeingthedominantuseoflithium.Thelithiummarketiscurrentlyexperiencingaperiodofrapidexpansion.Followingadoublingofdemandin2021comparedwith2017,lithiumconsumptionwitnessedanadditional30%growthin2022.Productionlevelsarealsoincreasingatasignificantpace,withanannualgrowthraterangingbetween25%and35%.Lithiumisattractingsubstantialattentionfrommininginvestors.Thebriskpaceofmarketgrowthhasbeenaccompaniedbyvolatilepricesoverthepasttwoyears.Afterarelentlessriseuntilearly2022,pricescooledoffduetodestockinginChinesemarketsandgrowingsupplies,althoughtheyhaverecentlystartedtoheadupwardsagain.In2022,therewasadeficitoflithiumchemicalsupplies,particularlyinbattery-gradeproducts.However,thisshortfallgraduallyeasedin2023duetoincreasedsupplyfrombothexistingproducersandnewentrants.Nonetheless,pricesforbattery-gradematerialsmayremainelevatedCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE53CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.duetorobustexpectationsfordemandgrowth,thechallengesassociatedwithproducingandqualifyingasabattery-gradeproduct,andthehighercostprofileofnon-brineplays.Historically,themajorityoflithiumminingcapacityhasbeenconcentratedinChile'ssaltflatsandAustralia's"hardrock"spodumeneoremines,withChinadominatingthedownstreamrefiningprocess.Inrecentyears,Chinahasprogressivelyrampedupitsdomesticlithiumminingcapacity,thoughitislesscompetitiveduetodeposits’challenginggeologicalconditions(lepidolitehardrockore,highmagnesiumsaltflats).In2022,therewasanotableincreaseininterestinlepidoliteplays,particularlyinJiangxiprovince,duetotheirampleresourcebase.CompaniessuchasCATL,GotionandBYDhaveannouncedinvestmentsinexpandinglepidoliteminingandconversionfacilities.However,significanthurdlesremaintosupportthemeaningfulgrowthoflepidoliteplays.Theseincludeahighercostprofilecomparedwithotherlithiumsourcesandthesubstantialamountofwasteandrefiningslagassociatedwiththeirdevelopment.Itisalsochallengingtoproducebattery-gradelithiumfromlepidolite.MiningprojectsarealsoslatedtocomeonlineinCanadaandArgentinaintheshortrun.Additionally,notabledevelopmentsareoccurringinBrazil,wheretheGrotadoCirilosminerecentlycommencedproduction,aswellasinseveralEuropeanandAfricancountriesProjectsarealsounderwaytodiversifydownstreamprocessingcapacitiesthattransformlithiumcarbonateintolithiumhydroxide,whichweretraditionallyconcentratedinChina.Newinvestmentsarebeingmadeinconversioncapacitiesclosertomines,aswellasinsomeotherconsumercountries.Althoughthelonger-termoutlookispromising,newsupplyprojectsfacesomenear-termuncertainties.Therecentdeclineinlithiumpricescouldposechallengestojuniorminersandearly-stageprojects.Someprojectsarefacingchallengeswithslowramp-upsandconstructionprocesses.Theimpactoflowpricesonproductionrouteswillnotbeuniform.Non-integratedlithiumrefinersinChinaarelikelytofacedifficultiesatcurrentpricelevels,whileexistingAustralianhardrockminingoperationsandSouthAmericansaltflatsmayretaintheircompetitivenessinthemarket.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE54CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Indonesiaemergedastheworld'slargestnickelminingandrefiningcentre;theDRC-ChinasupplychainsremainstrongforcobaltProductiontrendsfornickelandcobaltIEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:NC=NewCaledonia.DRC=DemocraticRepublicoftheCongo.Source:IEAanalysisbasedonS&PGlobalandBenchmarkMineralIntelligence.2020202120222023eRefinedcobalt14%8%12%801602403202020202120222023ektMinedcobalt14%23%17%2020202120222023eRefinednickel6%175%12342020202120222023eMtOthersCubaDRCCanadaFinlandChinaNCRussiaPhilippinesIndonesiaMinednickel18%14%12%CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE55CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.TrendsfornickelandcobaltNickelNickel,avitalrawmaterialintheproductionofstainlesssteelandbatteries,hasfacedchallengesofilliquidityintradingandvolatilityinpricesduetoitsconcentrationofsupplyandgeopoliticaltensions.ClassifiedintoClass1andClass2basedontheirrespectivepurities,Class1nickelisprimarilyusedforbatterycathodesandissourcedfromRussia,CanadaandAustralia,whileClass2nickel,usedforindustrialalloys,ismainlysuppliedbyIndonesia,thePhilippinesandNewCaledonia.AfterthemarketsqueezeinMarch2022,theLondonMetalExchange(LME)suspendedAsiantradinghourstocontainvolatility,whichonlyrestartedayearlater.AlthoughtheLMEhasputforthatwo-yearactionplantoboostitsmarkets,whichinvolvesestablishingdailypricelimitsandcreatingChina-basedspotmarketofferingsfornickelsulphateandnickelmatte,thespeedatwhichtradingliquidityamongAsianmarketparticipantsrecoversremainsuncertain.Meanwhile,CMEGroupinChicagoisplanningtolaunchanickelcontractparticulartoClass1nickel.In2022,theindustryaddedarecordamountofsupply,withminednickelproductionupby18%andrefinednickelproductionupby17%.ThissurgeinsupplywasprimarilydrivenbyIndonesia,whichexperiencedastaggering50%growthinbothminedandrefinednickelsupplies,puttingthemarketbalanceintosurplus.Addingtoitsestablishedpositionastheworld’slargestnickelminer,thecountryovertookChinaasthelargestrefinednickelproducer,althoughmanyofnewcapacitieshavebeenfinancedbyChinesecompanies.IndonesiaremainstheleadingproducerofClass2nickel.However,itsjointventurewithChinesecompaniesinhigh-pressureacidleach(HPAL)plantsisenablingtheprocessingofitslateriteresourcesintoClass1products.Theconversionofnickelpigiron(NPI)intonickelmatte,whichcanbefurtherrefinedintobattery-gradenickel,isalsocomingintofruition.Theramp-upofnickelprocessinginIndonesiaisexpectedtocontinue,withthecountryhavinganumberofadditionalHPALplantsinthepipeline.Nonetheless,concernsoverwastedisposalfromHPALplantsremainasthegeographyandclimateofIndonesiaposechallengestoenvironmentallysafeoptionstotreatthewaste.TheNPI-to-nickel-matteroutefaceschallengesassociatedwithhigherenergyconsumption,waterprotection,riskstobiodiversity,erosionandassociatedemissions.SeveralnewnickeldevelopmentprojectsarecurrentlyunderwayoutsideofIndonesia,particularlyinAustraliaandCanada.InthePhilippines,thesecond-largestsupplierofnickellaterite,onlytwoHPALplantsarecurrentlyoperatingwithmorebeingconsidered,oneofwhichisajointventurebetweenalocalcompanyandaChinesecompany.However,itisunlikelythattheseprojectswillposeasignificantchallengetoIndonesia'sdominantpositioninnickelsupplies.OnekeyuncertaintyrevolvesaroundwhetherIndonesiannickelwillqualifyforsubsidiesCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE56CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.undertheUSInflationReductionAct(IRA)andtheregulatorypressuresbeingbroughtbytheEuropeanUnionontheGHGfootprintofbatteries.TheoutcomeofthisqualificationwillhaveimplicationsforthecompetitivenessofIndonesiannickelintheglobalmarket.CobaltAfterreachingapeakofUSD80000pertonneinMarch2022,cobaltpricesunderwentaconsistentdownwardtrendandremainedaroundUSD50000pertonnethroughouttheremainderoftheyear.Themutedeconomicoutlook,coupledwithChina'sstringentlockdownmeasures,hadadetrimentaleffectonconsumerelectronicsdemand,impactingtheoveralldemandforcobalt.Thelowdemandwasadditionallyimpactedbythecost-cuttingstrategiesofChineseEVbatteryproducers,optingforcheaperhigh-nickelchemistrieswithreducedcobaltcontentorcobalt-freelithiumironphosphate(LFP)batteries.Concurrently,thesubdueddemandforcobaltcoincidedwithanupsurgeinsupplyasnumerousminesresumedproductionin2021and2022.GlencoresuccessfullyreopenedtheMutandamineintheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,whichhadbeenundersuspensionsince2019,andbroughtitbackintofulloperationduring2022.InDecember2022,EurasianResourcesGroupandGecamines,thenationalminingcompanyintheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,restartedoperationsattheBossmine,whichhadalsobeensuspendedsince2019.ExportsfromtheTenkeFungurumemine,whichhadbeenblockedsinceJuly2022,resumedinApril2023asChina’sCMOCandtheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo’sstate-ownedminingcompanyGécaminessettledadisputeoverroyalties.Overall,minedcobaltsupplyexperiencedasignificantsurgein2022,growingby20%,whichresultedinasubstantialsurplusinthemarketbyyear-end.TheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongomaintaineditsstrongpositionastheleadingcobaltproducer,accountingforover70%ofglobalproductionin2022.Elsewhere,Indonesiamadenotablestrides,becomingthesecond-largestsupplierofminedcobalt.In2022,IndonesiatripleditscobaltproductionwiththecommencementofnewHPALprojects.TheUnitedStatesalsomarkedthecountry’sfirstcobaltproductionsince1994asproductionbeganattheIdahoCobaltOperationsinOctober2022.However,duetoalackofdomesticprocessingcapabilities,theseoresaretobeexported.WitharobustpipelineofprojectsintheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongoandIndonesiaamidtherestrainedpriceconditions,thedominanceofthesetwocountriesinglobalcobaltsuppliesisanticipatedtopersist,whileChinacontinuestomaintainastrongholdinrefinedproductsupplies.Chinaaccountedforover75%ofrefinedcobaltoutputin2022.Lookingaheadtotheremainderof2023,cobaltpricesareexpectedtoremainsuppressedduetooversupply.TheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongoisprojectedtofurtherincreaseitsproduction.CMOC,theworld’ssecond-largestcobaltproducer,isscheduledtocommenceproductionattheKisanfuminein2023.Indonesiaissettoaddmorevolumesasthecountryproducescobaltasaby-productofitsgrowingnickelindustry.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE57CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.GraphiteandrareearthelementsaresettogainincreasingtractioninthecriticalmineralsdiscussionProductiontrendsforgraphiteandrareearthelementsIEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:t=tonne;REE=rareearthelements,REO=rareearthoxide.Naturalgraphiteisbasedonproductionofnaturalflakegraphite,MagnetREEsincludeneodyminium,praseodymium,dysprosiumandterbium.Source:IEAanalysisbasedonWoodMackenzieandAdamasIntelligence.204060801002020202120222023ektREOMinedmagnetREEs14%11%9%2020202120222023eSyntheticgraphite18%4%10%2020202120222023eRefinedmagnetREEs21%11%9%50010001500200025002020202120222023ektOthersEstoniaMalaysiaUnitedStatesMynamarIndiaJapanMadagascarMozambiqueChinaNaturalgraphite11%7%40%CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE58CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.TrendsforgraphiteandrareearthelementsGraphiteComposedoflayersofgraphene,graphiteisamaterialusedinmultipleindustries,fromrefractorymaterialtolubricant.Butdemandisgrowingfastestforuseinbatteries.Graphitecanbesourcedfromnaturaldepositsorproducedartifically.Some70%ofthenaturalflakegraphitein2022issuppliedfromChina,whichisalsothemainproducerofsyntheticgraphiteandanode.AprocesstomakesphericalgraphitethatisusedforbatteriestakesplacealmostentirelyinChina.SeveralcompaniesarelookingtodevelopplantsoutsideofChina,includingSyrahResources’VidaliaplantintheUnitedStates.Batteryproducershavefavouredsyntheticgraphiteforitsgreaterreliability,leadingtolongerbatterylongevity.Almost80%ofanodesmanufacturedinChinaaremadeusingsyntheticgraphite.Butproductionrequirescokeandtemperatureabove2500°C,leadingtoconsiderableCO2emissions.Ontheotherhand,naturalgraphiteischeaperandlessenergy-intensivetoproduce.Thankstotechnologicaldevelopment,thereliabilityofnaturalgraphitequalityhasbeenimprovingoverthepastfewyears.Forthesereasons,themarketshareofnaturalgraphiteisexpectedtoincreaseinthecomingyears.Thepricesofnaturalgraphitecontinuetoremainsubduedduetoweakdemandandelevatedstocklevels.However,productioncapacityforanodesisexploding,withanannouncedcapacityof13Mtperyearin2025,comparedwith0.8Mtin2021,mostofwhichbeingconcentratedinChina.Graphiteproductionisalsoincreasingbutataslowerrate,raisingconcernsabouttightsuppliesinthecomingyears,particularlyforbattery-gradeproducts.Alternativestographiteinanodesdoexist.Siliconcanbeusedtoreplacesomeofthegraphitetoimprovethecapacityandtheenergydensityoftheanode.Silicon-dopedgraphitealreadyenteredthemarketafewyearsago,andnowabout30%ofanodescontainsilicon.Anotheroptionincludeslithiummetalanodes,whichcouldyieldevengreaterenergydensitywhentheybecomecommerciallyavailable.RareearthelementsRareearthelements(REEs)areessentialforpermanentmagnetsrequiredbyEVsandwindturbines.In2022andinto2023,Chinaremainedtheworld’slargestproducerandprocessorofREEs,accountingfor70%ofproductionand90%ofprocessing,andMyanmarremainedasignificantexporterofrareearthorestoChina.AgainstthebackdropoftheCovid-19pandemic,borderclosuresbetweenMyanmarandChinaremainedinplaceatthebeginningof2022,causingsignificantsupplyconstraintsanduncertainty.TheChineseexportpriceofneodymium-praseodymiumoxideroseby30%inMarch2022fromthebeginningoftheyear.WhiletheimportrestrictionswereeasedlaterinApril,weakautomotiveproductionandtheslowingeconomicrecoverydampenedREEdemand,resultinginpricedecreasestolevelslastCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE59CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.observedinJuly2021.Thepricesrecoveredtosomeextentinthelatterhalfof2022,supportedbyexpectationsofChina’sre-opening.InChina,threestate-ownedentitiesmergedinDecember2021,creatingtheChinaRareEarthGroup,whichaccountsforover60%ofthecountry’sheavyREEsupply.ThereconstructionoftheREEindustrycontinuedthroughout2022,includingthepromotionofstrategicco-operationbetweenChinaRareEarthGroupandGuangdongRisingHoldings.TheconsolidationaimstoimproveproductionefficiencyandenvironmentalperformanceoftheChineseREEindustry,butcouldalsoincreasethenewentity’spricingpowerofkeyREEssuchasdysprosiumandterbium,withimplicationsfortheglobalREEindustry.TheChinesegovernmentincreasedits2023quotaforREEminingby20%over2022levels,furtherraisingproduction(mainlylightREEs).InMyanmar,whileChineseCovid-19restrictionsattheirborderendedbytheendof2022,localresidents’protestagainstenvironmentalpollutionsbeganinDecember,and,asofApril2023,ChineseminingcompaniesarereportedlypreparingsuspensionofminingactivitiesinMyanmar.Globally,severalprocessingprojectsareindevelopment,includingintheUnitedStates(MPMaterials)andCanada(SRC),andin2022,theUnitedStates,AustralianandCanadiangovernmentsfundeddomesticREEminingandprocessingplants.In2023,theJapanesegovernmentprovidedadditionalfundingtoLynastobuildaheavyREEseparationandproductionfacility,aimingtodiversifyheavyREEsuppliesawayfromChina.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE60CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.TrendsforotherkeycommoditiesAluminiumSpurredbyRussia'sinvasionofUkraine(Russiamakesupabout5%ofglobalaluminiumingotsupply),thepricesofaluminiumsoaredinearly2022,reachingarecordhighlevelofUSD3210pertonneon7March.However,thepricetrajectoryshiftedcourseinearlysummer2022duetoeconomicslowdownsinChinaandotherregions.Consequently,pricesdeclinedtoarangeofUSD2000toUSD2500pertonneduringthelatterhalfof2022andthroughout2023.ConsiderablefocushasrecentlybeendirectedtowardsRussianexports,potentialrestrictionsonbauxiteexportsfromIndonesiaandcurtailedsuppliesinEurope.Europeansmeltershavebeengrapplingwithsoaringenergyprices,powershortages,andconsequentreductionsintheiroperations.ThissituationhasresultedintheLMEinventoriesreachingtheirlowestlevelsince1990.Chinaremainsacriticalactorandispoisedtoshapefuturemarketdynamics,intermsbothofdemandandsupply.Onthesupplyside,thehydropowershortageinYunnanprovincehaspromptedsmeltercurtailmentsof1.3MtpainSeptember2022andagaininFebruary2023,leadingtoaswifttighteningofthemarket.Ifpowershortagespersistandresultinfurthersmeltercurtailments,themarketcouldexperiencenoticeableconsequences.Thusfar,theimpactofsupplycurtailmentshasbeenmitigatedbyweakdemandinChina.However,thesituationcouldquicklychangeifChinesedemandweretosignificantlyreboundintandemwithaneconomicrecovery.ItisimportanttomonitoranyshiftsindevelopmentsinChinaastheycouldhaveasubstantialinfluenceonthemarketconditions.ManganeseManganeseisprimarilyusedasaningredientinalloysteel.Althoughbatteriescurrentlyaccountforasmallpercentageoftheoveralldemandformanganese,theirshareisexpectedtoincreaseasnickelmanganesecobalt(NMC)batteriesincreasinglyincorporatemanganeseandnickelinsteadofcobalt.Tomeettherequirementsofbatteries,high-puritymanganesesulphatesareneeded,andtheseareprimarilyproducedbyahandfulofcompanies,mostlylocatedinChina.Chinaproduces97%ofbattery-grademanganesesulphateandtherearejustacoupleofrefinerieselsewhere,inJapanandinBelgium.Producinghigh-puritymanganeseinvolvesacomplexprocessthatmustbetailoredtodifferentoretypes.Chinahasaccumulatedsignificantexperienceandexpertiseinaddressingthesechallenges,makingitdifficulttodiversifythesupplychain.SeveralrefiningprojectsarebeingconsideredoutsideChina,includingtheCzechRepublic(EuroManganese),SouthAfrica(GiyaniMetals),Canada(CanadianManganese,EuroManganese),Australia(Element25)andtheUnitedStates(South32).However,withgrowingtrendstoadoptmanganese-CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE61CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.richchemistriesinbatteries,thelackofprojectstosupplyhigh-puritymanganesemaywellposeabottleneckfortheuptakeofEVs.PlatinumgroupmetalsSinceautocatalystisthemajoruserofplatinumgroupmetals(PGMs),weakautomotiveproductionsaffecteddemandforplatinumandpalladiumthroughthefirsthalfof2022,pressuringprices.Forthesupplyside,SouthAfricaistheworld’slargestproducerofplatinumandpalladiumaccountingfor80%and45%respectively,followedbyRussia,with10%and40%,highlightingtheimpactsofRussia’sinvasionofUkraineonsupplyandpricetrends.Theothermajorsupply-sideissuewasthepowercutsandmaintenancechallengesinSouthAfrica.Inthethirdquarterof2022,Mogalakwena,theworld’slargestopen-pitplatinummine,reducedproductionby6%fromthepreviousyear,andAmandelbultreducedproductionby12%,partlybecauseoflocalprotestsandpoweroutages.PGMpricesareexpectedtoriseintheremainderof2023astheglobaldeficitofplatinumcontinueswithsupplydisruptioninSouthAfricaandRussia.UraniumGrowingconcernsonenergysecurityandcleanenergytransitionshaveunderscoredtheroleofnuclearinthedecadestocome,bringingtightmarketconditionsforuraniumin2022.Whilethereisnoopenmarketforuranium,tradedspotpricesforuraniumoxidespikedtonearlyUSD60perpoundinmarch2022,stabilisingaroundUSD50perpoundafterwards.ThislevelremainssignificantlyhigherthanpricesseeninthepreviousfiveyearsasspotpriceslargelyremainedbetweenUSD20/poundandUSD30/pound.Thespreadbetweenthespotpriceandthoseseeninlong-termcontractshasalsonarrowed,withlong-termcontractscommandingpremiumofonlyUSD2/poundtoUSD3/poundthusfarin2023,comparedwithanaveragepremiumofoverUSD5/poundin2019and2020.Inrecentyears,Russiahasbeenasignificantsupplierinthenuclearfuelmarket.WhileRussiaproducesonlyaround5%ofuraniumoxideproduction,italsoplaysapivotalroleinthemarketthroughitsconversionandenrichmentplants.Kazakhstanisthelargestproducerofuraniumintheworld,andasithasnodomesticconversionorenrichmentfacilities,muchofitsproductionreliesonRussiatoreachtheworldmarket.ThesedynamicscreatemajoruncertaintiesforsupplyinthelightofRussia’sinvasionofUkraine.Againstthisbackdrop,anumberofprojectscouldpotentiallyexpandproduction,notablysitesinCanada,KazakhstanandtheUnitedStatesthathavebeenidledduetolowprices.ThisincludesMcArthurRiverandKeyLakeinCanadaandmultiplesitesinKazakhstan.Atthesametime,theUnitedStatesDepartmentofEnergyhasbegunpurchasesontheopenmarkettosupportastrategicuraniumreservefromuraniumthatareproducedataUSfacility.Inthelongerterm,overalluraniumrequirementsfortheglobalnuclearreactorfleetisexpectedtogrow,buttheprecisemagnitudeofthisgrowthisuncertain.Atthelowendofgrowthexpectations,existingandcommittedproductionmaybesufficienttomeetdemandupto2030–atthehigherend,additionalprojectswouldlikelybeneeded.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE62CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.ImplicationsCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE63CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Criticalmineralsdemandforcleanenergyissettogrowbyuptothree-and-a-halftimesovertheperiodto2030astheworldmovesthroughenergytransitionsMineralrequirementsforcleanenergytechnologiesbyscenarioIEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:STEPS=StatedPoliciesScenarios;APS=AnnouncedPledgesScenario;NZE=NetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario.Includesmostofthemineralsusedinvariouscleanenergytechnologies,butdoesnotincludesteelandaluminium.51015202530354020222030205020302050203020502022203020502030205020302050MtSolarPVWindOtherlowcarbonCopperNickelGraphiteEVsandstorageElectricitynetworksHydrogenLithiumManganeseCobaltOtherSTEPSAPSNZESTEPSAPSNZEBytechnologyBymineralCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE64CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.CleanenergytechnologiescontinuetobeamajorforceindrivingdemandgrowthforkeymineralsGlobalcriticalmineralsdemandbyenduseintheNZEScenarioIEA.CCBY4.0.30060090012001500202120302050Index(100=2021)SolarPVWindOtherlow-emissionsgenerationElectricvehiclesGridstoragebatteriesElectricitynetworksOtherShareofcleanenergytechnologiesLithium20%40%60%80%100%80160240320400202120302050202120302050202120302050CopperNickelCobalt(rightaxis)CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE65CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Twoyearson,whatdothedemandprospectslooklike?Sinceitslandmarkspecialreportin2021,theIEAhasbeenupdatingitsprojectionsforfuturemineraldemandbasedonthelatestpolicyandtechnologydevelopmentsintheWorldEnergyOutlook2022andtheGlobalEVOutlook2023.TheseupdatedprojectionsarebasedonthethreeIEAenergyscenarios:•StatedPoliciesScenario(STEPS):thisscenariomapsoutatrajectorythatreflectscurrentpolicysettings,basedonadetailedassessmentofwhatpoliciesareactuallyinplaceorareunderdevelopmentbygovernmentsaroundtheworld.•AnnouncedPledgesScenario(APS):thisscenarioassumesthatalllong-termemissionsandenergyaccesstargets,includingnetzerocommitments,willbemetontimeandinfull,evenwherepoliciesarenotyetinplacetodeliverthem.•NetZeroEmissionsby2050(NZE)Scenario:thisscenariosetsoutapathwayfortheglobalenergysectortoachievenetzeroCO2emissionsby2050.Demandforcriticalmineralsforcleanenergytechnologiesissettoincreaserapidlyinallthreescenarios.IntheAPS,demandmorethandoublesby2030andis3.5timeshigherby2050.IntheNZEScenario,anevenfasterdeploymentofcleanenergytechnologiesimpliesanincreaseindemandforcriticalmineralsbythree-and-a-halftimesin2030and2050,comparedwithtoday,reachingover30milliontonnes.EVsandbatterystoragearethemaindriversofdemandgrowth,buttherearealsomajorcontributionsfromlow-emissionspowergenerationandelectricitynetworks.Twoyearson,ourlatestdemandprojectionsdifferfromthoseinthespecialreportin2021forseveralreasons.•ProjecteddemandintheSTEPShasbeenrevisedupwardsduetoarangeofnewpolicymeasuresthatsupportstrongerdeploymentofcleanenergytechnologies(e.g.theUSInflationReductionAct[IRA]).•TheAPSandtheNZEScenariobecamethemainclimate-drivenscenariosreplacingtheSustainableDevelopmentScenario.TheAPSconsidersallclimatepledgesmadebygovernmentsandtheimplicationsforcountriesthathavenotmadeambitiouslong-termpledges,butnonethelessbenefitfromtheacceleratedcostreductionsforcleanenergytechnologies.TheAPSisassociatedwithatemperatureriseof1.7°Cin2100(witha50%probability),whiletheNZEScenariolimitsglobalwarmingto1.5°C.•TheNZEScenarioreflectstheimpactsofbehaviouralchangesthattamepreferencesforlargervehicles(e.g.lowerSUVshare).Thisresultsintheaveragebatterysizepeakinginthisdecadeandgraduallydecliningthereafer,loweringmineralrequirementscomparedwithwhatwouldotherwisehavebeen.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE66CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.•Theupdatedprojectionsreflectthelatestdevelopmentsonbatterychemistries,includingahighershareoflithiumironphosphate(LFP)andafasterswitchtohigh-nickelchemistries.Thishadanotable(downward)impactoncobaltdemand.•Mineraldemandforelectricitynetworkshasbeenupdatedbasedonagranularassessmentofgridlinedeploymentbytype(overhead,underground)andvoltagelevels.Theupdatedprojectionsalsoconsiderahighershareofaluminiuminlow-to-mediumvoltagesegments.•Materialintensityassumptionshavebeenupdatedbasedonthelatestliteraturereviewandindustryconsultations.Forbatteries,theupdatedprojectionsincorporatethelatestintensityassumptionsintheGREET-2022,whichareslightlylowerthaninthepreviousassumptions.Althougheachfactorhadadifferentimpactonprojectedmineralrequirements,overall,projecteddemandintheSTEPSishigherthanthatinthe2021report,whereasdemandintheNZEScenarioislower,mostnotablyduetothemoderatebatterysizegrowth.Nonetheless,evenwiththelowereddemandintheNZEScenario,projectedmineraldemandinclimate-drivenscenariosismultipletimeshigherthantoday,puttingcleanenergytechnologiesattheforefrontofdrivingtotalmineraldemandgrowth.Fromcoppertolithiumandtocobalt,cleanenergytechnologiesemergeasthelargestconsumingsegmentofdemand,pushingtheirshareintotaldemandconsiderablyhigherthantoday.Itisimportanttonotethatdemandprojectionsareinherentlysubjecttolargevariations,notonlyaffectedbyenergyscenariosbutalsobytechnologychoicesandbehaviouralfactors.TheIEAdevelopedmorethantenalternativecasestoquantifytheimpactsofdifferentconsumerchoicesandtechnologydevelopmentsonfuturemineralrequirements.TheresultsofthesecaseswillbeavailablethroughtheIEACriticalMineralsDataExplorer,anaccompanyingonlinedatatool(seeAnnex).CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE67CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Supplyiscatchingupwithcountries’ambitionswithahostofnewlyannouncedprojects,butwellbalancedmarketsarefarfromassuredAnticipatedprimaryproductionandprimarysupplyrequirementsofselectedmineralsintheAPSandNZEScenarioIEA.CCBY4.0.Note:Primarysupplyrequirementsarecalculatedas“totaldemandnetofsecondarysupply”’.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonS&PGlobal,BNEFandBenchmarkMineralIntelligence.102030402022AnticipatedsupplyAPSNZE2030MtCopper2004006008002022AnticipatedsupplyAPSNZE2030ktLiLithium24682022AnticipatedsupplyAPSNZE2030MtNickel1002003004002022AnticipatedsupplyAPSNZE2030ktCobaltCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE68CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Therehasbeenlimitedprogressintermsofdiversificationoverthepastthreeyears;concentrationofsupplyhasevenintensifiedinsomecasesShareoftopthreeproducingcountriesintotalproductionforselectedresourcesandminerals,2022IEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:DRC=DemocraticRepublicoftheCongo.Graphiteextractionisfornaturalflakegraphite.Graphiteprocessingisforsphericalgraphiteforbatterygrade.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonS&PGlobal,USGS(2023),MineralCommoditySummariesandWoodMackenzie.DRCDRCIndonesiaIndonesiaChinaChinaUSAustraliaChileChileMozambiquePeru25%50%75%100%RareearthsGraphiteLithiumCobaltNickelCopperDRCIndonesiaPhilippinesChinaUSRussiaArgentinaAustraliaChileJapanMozambiquePeruFinlandCanadaZambiaMadagascarMalaysiaEstonia2019top3shareExtractionChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChileChileIndonesiaFinland25%50%75%100%RareearthsGraphiteLithiumCobaltNickelCopperProcessingCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE69CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Analysisofprojectpipelinesindicatesthat,inmostcases,thegeographicalconcentrationofrefiningoperationsislikelytoremainhighintheneartermGeographicaldistributionofplannedrefiningprojectsforkeyminerals,2023-2030IEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:Includedfirmandprobableprojects.Thesharesarebasedonprojected2030supply.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonWoodMackenzieandBenchmarkMineralIntelligence.China36%Canada33%Australia24%Others7%RefinedcobaltChina49%Argentina16%Australia11%Chile9%Others15%LithiumchemicalIndonesia88%PapuaNewGuinea6%Brazil3%Others3%RefinednickelCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE70CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.China’spushtodiversifyrawmaterialsupplieshintatgreatercompetitionforminingassetsaroundtheworldCompositionofChina'sunrefinedrawmaterialimportsbyorigin,2022IEA.CCBY4.0.Notes:DRC=DemocraticRepublicoftheCongo;NC=NewCaledonia.Tradedataforcobalt,nickel,tin,lithium(spodumene),aluminium(bauxite)andcopperhardrockoresandconcentrates.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonChinaCustomdata,BMOcapitalmarkets.ChileSouthAfricaGuineaAustraliaMyanmarPhilippinesDRCPeruGabonIndonesiaVietnamDRCNC20%40%60%80%100%CopperManganeseAluminiumLithiumTinNickelCobaltoftotalmassFirstsupplyingcountrySecondsupplyingcountryOthersupplyingcountriesCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE71CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Box3.Whatmakesittoughtodiversifyrefiningandprocessingoperations?Despitetheincreasinginterestindiversifyingrefiningandprocessingoperations,significantprogressinthisareahasyettobemade.Theindustryhashistoricallyfavouredconcentratedglobal“hubs”thatspecialiseinthemetallurgicalandchemicaltransformationsnecessaryforhigh-techapplications.Examplesincludetheproductionofcathodeactivematerialsforbatteries,theconversionoflithiumintohydroxideform,andthetreatmentandseparationofrareearthoreintooxides.Asaresult,supplychainsforrefiningandprocessinghavebecomemoreconcentratedthanthoseformining.Developingnewrefiningandprocessingprojectsindiversifiedareaspresentssignificantchallengesforinvestors,whichinclude:•Limitedpricingpower:Positionedbetweentherawmaterialsandthedownstreamvaluechain,therefiningandprocessingindustryhasfrequentlyfacedmarginpressuresduetothemarketpoweroftheextractiveindustryanddominantdownstreamequipmentmanufacturers.Whiletheintermediatesupplychainhadtonavigatethepricevolatilitybetweenrawmaterialpricesanddownstreamcomponentprices,pricehedgingoftenproveddifficultinrelativelysmallandilliquidmarkets.•Insufficientvalueplacedondiversificationbyconsumers:Downstreamactorshaveoftenprioritisedshort-termprofitsovertheimportanceofdiversifiedsupplychains,astherisksassociatedwithconcentrationaredifficulttoassessandaresometimesviewedasspeculative.Additionally,manyconsumershaveestablishedoff-takecontractswithestablishedplayers,whichfurtherintensifiescompetitionfornewentrants.•Exposuretodistortivemarketbehaviours:Whenincumbentplayersorregionspossesssignificantmarketpowerinshapingprices,newentrantsmustconsiderthepotentialfordistortingmarketbehaviours.Furthermore,substantialindustrialovercapacitiesandnon-transparentstockpileswithindominanthubsisoftenobserved,whichdiminishestheattractivenessofprojectinvestmentsinnewfacilitiesinothercountries.•Limitedaccesstotechnology,skillsandsupplychains:Incumbentplayerspossessasubstantialadvantagethroughtheiraccesstoaskilledworkforce,well-establishedcomponentsupplychainsandaccumulatedtechnologicalexpertise.Thisoftentranslatesintohighercapitalcosts,creatingbarrierstoentryfornewplayers,whomaystruggletocompeteonthesamelevelintermsofresourcesandcapabilities.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE72CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Despitethenotablechallenges,therefiningindustrystandsoutforitsrelativelyshorterleadtimesanditsabilitytogeneratesubstantialemploymentandaddedvaluecomparedwiththeextractivesector.Recognisingtheconcernssurroundingthehighgeographicalconcentrationofrefiningandprocessingoperations,governmentsareenactingvariouspolicymeasurestoaddressthisissue.Theseeffortsincludeprovidingdirectfundingthroughgrantsandpreferentialloans,andsupportingR&Daswellaspilotplantdevelopments.Forinstance,JapanhasatrackrecordofproactivelysupportingAustralia'srareearthelementcompany,Lynas.TheInflationReductionActtaxcreditsareanothernewpolicytoolsastheyprovideincentivesfordownstreamactorstofavoursuppliersinfriendlyregions,indirectlyde-riskinginvestmentsinrefiningprojectsindiversifiedregions.Strengtheningenvironmental,socialandgovernancerequirementswouldalsocontributetocreatingamorelevelplayingfield.Giventheenergy-intensivenatureofrefiningoperations,ensuringaffordableandcleanenergysuppliescanalsohelpenhancethecompetitivenessoftheplants.Whiletradedistortionsshouldbeminimised,furtherpolicymeasuresarenecessarytosupportgeographicallydiversifiedsupplysourcesandhelpbusinessesandinvestorsrecognisethevalueofdiversity.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE73CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Threelayersofsupply-sidechallengesWhenitcomestomineralsupplies,therearethreelayersofchallengesthatneedtobeaddressed:i)whetherfuturesuppliescankeepupwiththerapidpaceofdemandgrowthinclimate-drivenscenariostoavoidapotentialmismatchbetweendemandandsupply;ii)whetherthosesuppliescancomefromdiversifiedsources;andiii)whetherthosevolumescanbesuppliedfromcleanandresponsiblesources.Onthefirstquestion,therehasbeensomeprogressinrecentyearswithnotableincreasesininvestmentandexplorationspending,leadingtoincreasedsuppliesinthecomingyears.Thishasreducedthepotentialmismatchbetweendemandandanticipatedsupplyin2030,althoughmeetingtherequirementsintheNZEScenariostillrequiresfurtherprojectstocomethrough.However,whiletheabsolutesupplysituationhasimprovedcomparedwithseveralyearsago,medium-termpressuresremainduetoseveralpracticalchallenges.•Whilelongleadtimestodevelopnewprojectsarewell-knownchallenges,projectexecutiondelaysandcostoverrunshavebeenprevalentinpastexperiences,whichaddstothechallengesofdeliveringvolumesontime.•Thereisanimportantdistinctionbetweentechnology-gradeproductsandbattery-gradeproducts,whichgenerallyrequirehigher-quality,high-purityoutputsandinvolvealengthyprocesstobequalifiedbyendusers.Aggregatesupplyanddemandbalancesdonotnecessarilyreflectthesupplydynamicsforbattery-gradeproducts.•Newplaysgenerallyinvolvehigherproductioncosts.Fromlaterite-basednickeltolepidolite-basedlithiumandtosulphidic-basedcopper,thereisalonglistofpotentialplaysthatsitontherightersideofcostcurves,whichwouldrequireelevatedmarginalcoststobringthesevolumesonstream.•Thininventorylevelslimittheindustry’sabilitytocushionshort-termsupplydisruptions.•Thereisthepossibilitythattoday’sdipinpriceswilldiminishtheinvestmentappetite,whichwouldhavestrongmedium-termimplications.•Thereareuncertaintiestooonthedemandside,butiftheworldistoachieveitsclimategoalsthenthereneedstoberobustandcontinuousgrowthindemandafter2030.Thesignificanceofsecuremineralsuppliesbecomesmoreprominentwhenwelookatthewaythatwearebuildingupcleanenergysupplychains.InthecaseofEVbatteriesandsolarpanels,forexample,thereareincreasingannouncementstoconstructnewbatterygigafactoriesorsolarpanelplants,thetotalofwhichapproachesthenecessaryscaleintheNZEScenario.However,thereisnomatchingprogressontherawmaterialfront.Whenonecomponentofthevaluechainprogressesquicklywhileotherslagbehind,theoverallpaceoftransitionwillbegearedtowardstheslow-movingone.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE74CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.Despitesomeprogressonthefirstsupply-sidechallenge,thereislesspromiseonthesecondchallenge–diversification–andthethirdchallenge–cleanandresponsibly-producedsupplies.Comparedwiththreeyearsago,theshareofthetopthreeproducersin2022eitherremainsunchangedorhasincreasedfurther,especiallyfornickelandcobalt.Ouranalysisofprojectpipelinesrevealsasomewhatimprovedoutlookformining,butnotforrefiningoperationswheretoday’sgeographicalconcentrationisgreater.Plannedprojectsaremostlydevelopedinincumbentregions,withChinaholdinghalfofplannedlithiumchemicalfacilitiesandIndonesiarepresentingnearly90%ofplannedrefinednickelplants.Manyresourceholdingnationsareseekingpositionsfurtherupthevaluechainwhilemanyconsumingcountrieswanttodiversifytheirsourceofrefinedmetalsupplies.However,theworldhasnotyetsuccessfullyconnectedthedotstobuilddiversifiedmidstreamsupplychains.Thishighlightsnumerouschallengesindiversifyingrefiningandprocessingoperations,whichrequiresfurtherpolicysupportandpush(seeBox3).China’sstrongpositionintherefiningandprocessingvaluechainalsoimpliespotentiallygreatercompetitionforrawmaterialassetsindiversifiedregions.WhileChinaistheworld’slargestmetallurgicaltransformationhub,itreliesonimportsforlargevolumesofrawmaterials,oftenfromasmallnumberofsources.Forexample,ChinareliesalmostentirelyontheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongoforminedcobalttorunitsrefiningfacilities,andthePhillipinesandMyanmaraccountfor75-85%ofthecountry’sunrefinednickelandtinoresupplies.Therefore,asothereconomiesstepupeffortstodiversifytheircriticalmineralsupplychains,Chinaisalsoseekingwaystodiversifyitsrawmaterialsupplyportfolio.ThecountryhasbeenactivelyinvestinginmanyminingassetsinAfricaandLatinAmerica,anditsinvestmentinoverseasminingassetsislikelytogrowinthecomingyears.Between2018andthefirsthalfof2021,ChinesecompaniesinvestedUSD4.3billiontoacquirelithiumassets,twicetheamoutinvestedbycompaniesfromtheUnitedStates,AustraliaandCanadacombinedduringthesameperiod.Chinaisalsoinvestinginprocessing,refininganddownstreamfacilitiesinotherregions,oftenwithanaimtosecurestrategicaccesstorawmaterials.Thecountry’sinvestmentsinIndonesia’snickelprocessingplantsarewellknownandBYDrecentlyannouncedaplantobuildaUSD290millionlithiumcathodeplantinNorthernChile.Apartfromprogressondiversification,asignificantproportionofthecurrentmineralsupplycomesfromsourceswithlowerenvironmental,socialandgovernancescores,highlightingthattheindustryisfarfrombeingabletosecurecleanandresponsiblevolumes.Totacklethiscomplexsetofchallenges,itiscrucialtoremainvigilantinpromotingsecure,sustainable,andresponsiblesuppliesofcriticalmineralsthatplayacentralroleinglobalcleanenergytransitions.Inthisregard,theIEAwillhostthefirsteverinternationalsummitoncriticalmineralson28September2023,bringingtogetherministersfrommineral-producingand-consumingeconomiesaswellasindustry,investorsandcivilsocietytoaddressarangeofquestionsaroundsupplyandsustainability.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE75CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.AnnexCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE76CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.IEACriticalMineralsDataExplorerTheIEAhasintegratedcriticalmineralsintoitslong-termenergymodellingframework.AlongwiththeCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023,wearelaunchingtheIEACriticalMineralsDataExplorer,aninteractiveonlinetoolthatallowsuserstoeasilyaccesstheIEA'sprojectiondata.Initsfirstrelease,thetoolprovidesuserswithaccesstotheIEA'sdemandprojectionresultsundervariousenergyscenariosandtechnologyevolutiontrends(throughten-plusalternativetechnologycases).Userscanlookuptotaldemandforkeyminerals(copper,lithium,nickel,cobaltandneodymium)andprojectedmineraldemandinthecleanenergysectorbytechnologyandcommodity,scenarioandtechnologycases.Thenumberswillberegularlyupdatedtoalignwiththelatestenergyprojections,whentheWorldEnergyOutlook2023isreleased.Long-termsupplyprojectiondatawillalsobeaddedtothedataexploreratalaterstage.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE77CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.GeographicalconcentrationofproductionShareoftoponeandthreeproducingcountriesintotalproductionforselectedresourcesandmineralsMinedoutputRefinedoutputTop1shareTop3shareTop1shareTop3share20192022201920222019202220192022Copper28%24%48%45%40%42%56%57%Lithium55%47%88%91%63%65%99%99%Nickel34%49%55%65%32%43%54%66%Cobalt73%74%80%82%68%76%83%90%Graphite71%70%91%90%100%100%100%100%Rareearthelements63%68%85%88%88%90%100%100%Note:Graphiteextractionisfornaturalflakegraphite.Graphiteprocessingisforsphericalgraphiteforbatterygrade.Thefiguresforrareearthelementsareformagnetrareearthelementssuchasneodyminium,praseodymium,dysprosiumandterbium.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonS&PGlobal,BenchmarkMineralIntelligence,AdamasIntelligence,USGS(2023),MineralCommoditySummariesandWoodMackenzie.CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE78CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.AcknowledgementsThisreportwaspreparedbytheEnergySupplyandInvestmentOutlook(ESIO)DivisionoftheDirectorateofSustainability,TechnologyandOutlooks(STO),inco-operationwithotherdirectoratesoftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).Tae-YoonKimco-ordinatedtheworkandwastheleadauthor,andhedesignedanddirectedthereporttogetherwithTimGould,ChiefEnergyEconomist.Theprincipalauthorsfromacrosstheagencywere:SimonBennett(venturecapitalinvestment),HippolyteBoutin(mining),EricBuisson(modelling,policy,demandandsupplytrends),AmritaDasgupta(cleanenergytechnologyandbatterytrends),TsuyoshiDeguchi(investment,mergersandacquisitions),AlexandreGouy(modelling,recycling),AlexandraHegarty(rareearthelements),YunYoungKim(manufacturerstrategies,cobalt),K.C.Michaels(environmentalandsocialissues),ToruMuta(supply,individualcommodityreview),TomásdeOliveiraBredariol(environmentalandsocialissues),RyszardPospiech(modelling),JoyceRaboca(environmentalandsocialissues,nickel)andNatalieStClair(environmentalandsocialissues).EleniTsoukalaprovidedessentialsupport.ThereportbenefitedgreatlyfromcontributionsfromotherexpertswithintheIEA:MaryWarlick,KeisukeSadamori,LauraCozzi,LucilaArboleyaSarazola,SimoneBeretta,EléonoreCarré,JasonElliott,MiloszKarpinski,TeoLombardo,DionysiaLyngopoulou,ChristopheMcGladeandEricaRobin.ThanksalsotoJadMouawad,CurtisBrainard,AstridDumond,OliverJoy,JethroMullen,JuliePuechandThereseWalshoftheCommunicationsandDigitalOffice.ErinCrumeditedthemanuscriptandCharnerRamseydesignedthecover.JonCusterandIvoLetraprovidedsupportforthedatatool.TheIEACleanEnergyTransitionsProgramme(CETP),particularlythroughthefinancialcontributionsofMinistryofForeignAffairsinJapansupportedthisanalysis.ThanksalsogototheIEAWorkingPartyonCriticalMinerals.ManyexpertsfromoutsideoftheIEAprovidedinputandreviewedpreliminarydraftsofthereport.Theircommentsandsuggestionswereofgreatvalue.Theyinclude:NobuakiArimaMinistryofEconomy,TradeandIndustry,JapanMorganD.BazilianColoradoSchoolofMinesPeterBuchholzFederalInstituteforGeosciencesandNaturalResourcesShobhanDhirUniversityofOxfordFrancescaGostinelliENELScottGreenipDepartmentofState,UnitedStatesColinHamiltonBMOCapitalMarketsTakeshiHaradaJapanOrganizationforMetalsandEnergySecurityCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE79CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.SaraHastings-SimonUniversityofCalgaryDanielHillNaturalResourcesCanadaBenjaminKatzOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentNobuyukiKikuchiMinistryofForeignAffairs,JapanJohnLindbergInternationalCouncilonMiningandMetalsLouisMaréchalOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentDennisO.MesinaDepartmentofEnergy,UnitedStatesMarkRichardsRioTintoTristanStanleyBHPMartinStuermerInternationalMonetaryFundLyleTryttenIndependantconsultantJoelWatsonForeign,CommonwealthandDevelopmentOffice,UnitedKingdomCriticalMineralsMarketReview2023PAGE80CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023IEA.CCBY4.0.AbbreviationsandacronymsAPSAnnouncedPledgesScenarioAUDAustraliandollarCADCanadiandollarCMEChicagoMercantileExchangeCO2carbondioxideCO2-eqcarbondioxideequivalentCRMActCriticalRawMaterialsActDRCDemocraticRepublicoftheCongoESGenvironmental,socialandgovernanceEVelectricvehicleG7GroupofSevenintergovernmentalforumGHGgreenhousegasGREETGreenhouseGases,RegulatedEmissions,andEnergyUseinTechnologiesmodelHPALhighpressureacidleachingIEAInternationalEnergyAgencyIRAInflationReductionActIRMAInitiativeforResponsibleMiningAssuranceLCElithiumcarbonateequivalentLFPlithiumironphosphateLMELondonMetalExchangeM&AmergersandacquisitionsNCAnickelcobaltaluminiumNMCnickelmanganesecobaltNPInickelpigironNZENetZeroEmissionsBy2050ScenarioOECDOrganisationForEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentOEMoriginalequipmentmanufacturerPGMsplatinumgroupmetalsPVphotovoltaicR&DresearchanddevelopmentREErareearthelementsSHFEShanghaiFuturesExchangeSTEPSStatedPoliciesScenarioSUVsportutilityvehicleTSMTowardsSustainableMiningVCventurecapitalUnitsofmeasureGtgigatonneGWgigawattGWhgigawatt-hourkgkilogrammektkilotonnekWhkilowatt-hourm3cubicmetremcmmillioncubicmetresMtmilliontonnesMtpamilliontonnesperannumMWmegawattTWhterawatt-hoursInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)ThisworkreflectstheviewsoftheIEASecretariatbutdoesnotnecessarilyreflectthoseoftheIEA’sindividualMembercountriesorofanyparticularfunderorcollaborator.Theworkdoesnotconstituteprofessionaladviceonanyspecificissueorsituation.TheIEAmakesnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,inrespectofthework’scontents(includingitscompletenessoraccuracy)andshallnotberesponsibleforanyuseof,orrelianceon,thework.Thisdocumentandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.Unlessotherwiseindicated,allmaterialpresentedinfiguresandtablesisderivedfromIEAdataandanalysis.IEAPublicationsInternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:www.iea.orgContactinformation:www.iea.org/contactTypesetinFrancebyIEA-July2023Coverdesign:IEAPhotocredits:©ShutterStockSubjecttotheIEA’sNoticeforCC-licencedContent,thisworkislicencedunderaCreativeCommonsAttribution4.0InternationalLicence.

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