Estimating the Value of Near-real-time Satellite Information for Monitoring Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon Katrina Mullan1, Thales A. P. West2, Jill Caviglia-Harris3, Erin Sills4, Thaís Ottoni Santiago1, Jime Rodrigues Ribeiro4, Trent Biggs5 Affiliations: 1 Department of Economics, University of Montana 2 Environmental Geography Group, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije University Amsterdam 3 Economics and Finance Department, Environmental Studies Department, Salisbury University 4 Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University 5 Department of Geography, San Diego State University Abstract We estimate the amount of avoided deforestation due to the use of near-real-time satellite imagery (DETER) to support the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm), the conservation of indigenous and other protected areas, and compliance with the Brazilian Forest Code (FC). We develop a Directed Acyclical Graph (DAG) that outlines some of the econometric challenges that arise from the role of policy in the estimation of satellite data on deforestation and consider that policy could be a mediator and/or a moderator along this causal chain. We control for policies that were introduced simultaneously with DETER, and allow for changes in the influences of prices, agricultural settlement, and forest conservation policies on deforestation after near-real-time monitoring was introduced. We find both direct impacts of DETER on deforestation, and indirect impacts via changes in the influences of commodity prices on deforestation. In total we estimate the amount of avoided deforestation is approximately 467-471 thousand km2 between 2001-2015, ...
