POLICYBRIEF©2023InternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentWhatCanIndonesiaLearnfromSouthAfrica’sExperienceoftheJustEnergyTransitionProcess?AnissaSuharsono,MarthaMaulidiaJuly2023JustEnergyTransitionPartnershipsandtheImportanceofAcceleratingEnergyTransitionJustEnergyTransitionPartnerships(JETPs)areessentiallyafinancingmechanismagreedbetweenagroupofindustrializedcountriesandadevelopingcountry,designedtofundatransitionofthecoal-dependentdevelopingnationawayfromfossilfuelproductionandconsumptiontowardlow-carbonenergywhileaddressingthesocialconsequencesinvolved.AsofMay2023,JETPdealshavebeenannouncedforSouthAfrica,Indonesia,andVietnam.Inanationwherecoalplaysanimportantroleintheeconomy,robustsocialandeconomicmeasuresmustbetakenandincludedintheJETPplans,astransitioningawayfromcoalwillaffectasignificantportionofthepopulation.FinanceprovidedundertheJETPmayincludegrants,loans,andinvestments,and,asofMarch2023,thedonorgroupincludestheInternationalPartnersGroup(IPG)andtheGlasgowFinancialAllianceforNetZeroWorkingGroup.TheIPGrepresentsthedonorcountries,madeupofCanada,Denmark,theEuropeanUnion,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,Norway,theUnitedKingdom,andtheUnitedStates.TheGlasgowFinancialAllianceforNetZeroWorkingGrouprepresentsover550majorfinancialinstitutionsfrom50countries,suchasHSBCandCitibank(Kusuma,2023).TheJETPschemewasfirstannouncedattheUNClimateChangeConference(COP26)inNovember2021.Itwasdescribedatthetimeasalong-termpartnershipdesignedtosupporttheRepublicofSouthAfricaindecarbonizingitsenergysystem—preventingupto1–1.5gigatonnesofemissionsoverthenext20years—andhelpthecountryaccelerateitstransitionfromcoaltoalow-emission,climate-resilienteconomy.ItwaslaunchedwithafundingcommitmentofUSD8.5billioninthefirstphaseoffinancing,withthecomprehensiveinvestmentplanmadepublicafewdaysbeforeCOP27(EuropeanCommission,2022).IISD.org2WhatCanIndonesiaLearnfromSouthAfrica’sExperienceoftheJustEnergyTransitionProcess?ThesecondJETPdealwasannouncedduringtheG20SummitinNovember2022.TheIPG—ledbytheUnitedStatesandJapan—pledgedtomobilizeUSD20billion(aroundIDR300trillion)overthenext3–5yearstoaccelerateIndonesia’senergytransitionthroughearlyretirementofcoalpowerplantsanddeploymentofrenewableenergy.Thedealappearstoheraldadramaticshiftinenergypolicy,settinganewtargetforrenewables—whichwillneedtoaccountfor34%ofthecountry’spowerproductionby2030.Indonesiaiscurrentlyintheprocessofpreparingitscomprehensiveinvestmentplan.ThisbriefwillassesstheJETPprocessSouthAfricawentthrough1yearafteritwasannouncedtohighlightanyrelevantfindingsandlessonstoassistpolicy-makersimplementingtheIndonesianJETP.ProcessandOrganizationalStructureofSouthAfrica’sJETPSincetheannouncementoftheJETPatCOP26inNovember2021,severalpolicyreformsthatwillbenefitandenabletheSouthAfricanJETPhavebeenstartedorannounced.Thesereformsincludethefollowing:•anupdatedClimateChangeBill;•proposedchangestoelectricitysectorregulations;•releaseofaJustTransitionFrameworkandajustenergytransitioninvestmentplan;•greenhydrogendevelopments,includingaHydrogenEconomyRoadmap;•theSouthAfricanGreenfinancetaxonomyandSustainabilityandClimateChangeDisclosureGuidance,withthecarbontaxrateexpectedtoincreaseprogressivelyeveryyear;•aNationalMineClosureStrategyanddiscussiononSouthAfricanRenewableEnergyMasterPlan;•furtherroundsofbidsforrenewableenergyprojectsareunderway,andthelicensingthresholdfornewgenerationcapacityhasbeenraisedto100MW,openingnewwaysforprivatesectorinvestmentinrenewableenergyprojects(PresidentialClimateFinanceTaskTeam&IPG,2022a,2022b).Collectively,thesepolicymeasuresaimtoreducebarrierstocleanenergydeploymentandtoalignenergypolicywiththeagreedphase-downofcoalgeneration.Despitethehigh-levelagreementandmovestowardpolicyreform,thesereformsarestillcontroversial.TheSouthAfricanJETInvestmentPlan(JETIP)wasdevelopedthroughoutthecourseof2022,anditarticulatedtheneedforZAR1,48trillion(USD98billion)investmentinthreeprioritysectorsoveraperiodof5years.ItisimportanttonotethattheJETIPonlysetsouttheguidingprinciplesforimplementationoftheJustTransitionFrameworkandisnotexhaustiveofallthetransitionneedsinSouthAfrica.TheUSD8.5billioninthefirstphaseoffinancingwillbespentonthemosturgentprogramsidentifiedundertheIP.IISD.org3WhatCanIndonesiaLearnfromSouthAfrica’sExperienceoftheJustEnergyTransitionProcess?Inthepastfewyears,SouthAfricahasbeenundergoingtheprocessofelectricitysectorreform.ThisreformprocessisalsorecognizedtobeoneofthekeymeasurestosupporttheimplementationoftheJETIP.Inthe12monthsfollowingtheannouncementoftheJETP(PresidentialClimateFinanceTaskTeam&IPG,2022),thepresidentannouncedseveralstepsinthetransformationoftheelectricitysector,suchas•removinglicensingthresholdsforembeddedgenerationtoenableprivateinvestmentsinlarge,utility-scalegenerationprojects;•reviewingtheIntegratedResourcePlan2019toreflecttheneedforadditionalgenerationcapacityandSouthAfrica’sclimatecommitments;•reducingdesignatedlocalcontentforsolarpanelsfrom100%to35%(ThePresidencyRepublicofSouthAfrica,2023);•offeringincentivesforrooftopsolar,developingfeed-intariffsforthepurchaseofelectricitysurplusfromresidentialcustomers,andfurtherworkontaxincentives;•enhancingtheefforttorestructureEskomaswellasaddressingcrimeandcorruptionthroughalaw-enforcementteam;•usingclimatefundingprovidedthroughtheJETPtoinvestintransmissiongridandrepurposecoalpowerplantsthathavereachedendoflife;•establishingaNationalEnergyCrisisCounciltostrengthenPresidentialoversightofdeliveryagainstannouncedreforms.SouthAfrica’ssevereload-sheddingduetotheongoingenergycrisisisalsopartlythereasonfortheestablishmentoftheNationalEnergyCrisisCouncil(Proctor,2023).Theelectricitysectorreformmeasuresarealsobroadlyaimedatincreasingtherateofdeploymentofnew(and,inmanycases,privatelyowned)generation,muchofitrenewable.However,therearestillelementswithinthegovernmentwhoareopposedtoreforms,remainingunconvincedthatrenewablescanreplacethermalgenerators.Theseelementsmaycontinuetoseektoundermineorreversethereforms.Asinmanycountries,inSouthAfrica,thereisoftenagapbetweenpolicyandimplementation,andnotalloftheseinitiativeshavetranslatedintopracticalchanges.OrganizationStructureandRolesChairedbytheUnitedKingdom,theIPGwasestablishedtocoordinatethepartnershipannouncedatCOP26betweenitsmembersandthegovernmentofSouthAfrica.InFebruary2022,thePresidentialClimateFinanceTaskTeamwasformed,anditservesasacounterpartfortheIPG.ItengageswiththeIPGtoadviseCabinetonthefinancingpackage’scomposition,affordability,andalignmentwiththeregulatoryenvironment.Italsocoordinateswithrelevantgovernmentdepartmentsandtheprivatesectortodeveloprelevantfinancingmechanismsandfacilitiestoenableinternationalclimatefinance.IISD.org4WhatCanIndonesiaLearnfromSouthAfrica’sExperienceoftheJustEnergyTransitionProcess?Figure1.SouthAfricanJETPgovernancestructureSource:EuropeanCommission,2022.TheJETPsecretariatistaskedwithprovidingtechnicalandcoordinationsupporttothepartnershipinaneutralandobjectivemanner.Inordertoassistwiththesecretariat’swork,theClimateInvestmentFundBoardwillprovidethesupportandresourcesneeded.Severalconsultationscoveringkeyissues—suchasthenatureofthefinancialoffer,sharedunderstandinginpriorityareas,JETPIPoutlineandcontents,andthescopeandresponsibilitiesofthesecretariat—wereheldinMay2022.TheyinvolvedthePresidentialClimateFinanceTaskTeam,IPG,governmentfocalpoints,anddevelopmentfinanceinstitutions.Theseconsultationsincludedanassessmentofrelevantpoliciesandguidelines,preliminaryreviewofinvestmentandpolicyimplications,andmappingdevelopmentfinanciers’activitiesandprogramsthatcansupportthejustenergytransition.Atthesametime,thesecondmissionoftheAcceleratingCoalTransitionInvestmentProgramme(fundedbytheClimateInvestmentFundandledbytheWorldBankGroupandTheAfricanDevelopmentBank)washeldinordertoaligntheprogramandsupportthebroaderJETP.Tosupportthesecretariat,JETPhasalsoestablishedfiveworkinggroupstogathertechnicalexpertiseandexperienceinthefollowingareas:finance,implementation,power,greenSouthAfricanCabinetInter-MinisterialCommittee(IMC)JustEnergyTransitionPresidentialClimateFinanceTaskTeam(PCFTT)Members:IndividualswithrelevantexperienceMandate:FinalrecommendationsforInvestmentPlanandfinancingpackageInternationalPartnerGroup(IPG)Members:CapitalsandlocalteamsMandate:FinancingofferandendorsedInvestmentPlanJETPSecretariatIndependentteam:Coordinatingtechnicalworkinggroups,accountabletoJET(SAandIPG)Mandate:CoordinatethejointworkingprogramofPCFTTandIPGforfinalrecommendationsoftheInvestmentPlanandfinancingpackage,draftthereports,coordinatemediaengagementsofJETPChairIISD.org5WhatCanIndonesiaLearnfromSouthAfrica’sExperienceoftheJustEnergyTransitionProcess?hydrogen,andtransport.Termsofreferenceforeachworkinggrouparestillbeingdeveloped,buttheywillcentrearoundinvestmentsequencinginrelationtoSouthAfrica’sgoalsandchallenges.HighlightedShortcomingsoftheSouthAfricaJETPProcessTheJETPdealmayserveasacatalystforenergytransitionandcouldalsoopenthedoortomoreclimatefunds.However,becauseitisanewmechanismwhereallthedetailsarestillunderdevelopment,thereisalwaystheriskofthedealfailingtodeliveronitspotential.Oneoftheaspectsthatmustbemetinordertofulfillthe“just”aspectoftheenergytransitionistoensureabalancebetweentacklingcleanenergyissuesanddeliveringasociallyjusttransition.Raisingfinancesimplyforenergyinfrastructureisrelativelyeasyduetotheprospectoffavourableinvestmentreturns,butthesamecannotbesaidaboutraisingfinancetosupportcoalworkersandcommunities.EnsuringthatJETPprogramsareabletodeliverajustenergytransitionaswellasinfrastructureinvestmentisasignificantchallenge(Halsey,2022).Box1.ThepolicyimplementationgapandtheSouthAfricanJETPThegapbetweenstatedtargetsandpolicyobjectivesandtheirimplementation(thepolicyimplementationgap)isanoften-observedphenomena.Newinitiatives,particularlythosethatareambitiousandunprecedented,faceatoughjourneytorealization.Threekeyfactorsinfluencethelikelihoodofdelivery;Indonesianpolicy-makersshouldconsiderand,wherepossible,mitigatethesefactorsinthedevelopmentoftheJETP.1.Shortcomingsatthefeasibilitystage.Policiesdevelopedwithoutfullunderstandingoftheeconomic,social,andinstitutionalbarriersmayproveimpossibletoimplement.Toavoidthis,transparencyandconsultationatthedesignstagearecritical.ThereportedlackofcivilsocietyconsultationinSouthAfricamayhavegivenrisetopolicy-makingblindspots.2.Misestimationofthepoliticallandscapeandcrossdepartmentalcoordination.Proposalsaretypicallydevelopedbyaleadgovernmentministry.Withoutadequatecoordination,theproposalsmaynotcarrythesupportofallgovernmentstakeholders.InSouthAfrica,theoriginalpremiseofthedeal—earlyphase-outofcoalgenerationinexchangeforinternationalfinanceforcleanenergy—iscurrentlybeingopenlyquestionedbygovernmentministers.Thisindicatesthatthepoliticallandscapewasnotfactoredintothedealattheinceptionphase.3.AstheJETPmovestowardsimplementation,furtherproblemswillarise.Monitoringandevaluationwillbecomeincreasinglyimportanttoidentifyproblemsanddevelopmitigationmeasures.ThedevelopmentofstructurestomonitorandevaluatetheJETPwillbecomeincreasinglyimportant.TheSouthAfricanJETPdesignprocesshasbeencriticizedfornotbeinginclusiveofthepeoplemostaffectedbyitsimplementation.PriortothepublicationoftheJETPIPinIISD.org6WhatCanIndonesiaLearnfromSouthAfrica’sExperienceoftheJustEnergyTransitionProcess?November2022,eventhoughvariouspolicydocumentshadbeendiscussedandformalized(andtheSouthAfricataskteamandtheworkinggroupshadbeenworkingontheinvestmentplan),thegeneralpublicdidnothavethechancetoconsultthesedocuments,norhadanyrepresentativesofaffectedcommunities.TheJETforumsconvenedbythePresidentialClimateCommissionarealsoseenasnotyetsufficienttoaddresstheseconcerns.Thereisalsothefactthatevenwiththeinclusionofacomprehensivedefinitionof“just”transition,thereisaverynarrowfocusonthemitigationofdecarbonizationandthehistoricalimpactsofcoalmininginSouthAfrica.Thecurrentstateoftheenergysystem—wherethereisstill“unjustness”intermsofaccesstoandaffordabilityofelectricity—isalsonotaddressedintheJETPdeal,sinceuniversal,affordableaccessisnotidentifiedasaJETPfocusarea.ThisshowsalackofalignmentbetweentheinterestsoftheJETPwiththeself-identifiedinterestsinthepowerofthemajorityofSouthAfricans(PublicAffairsResearchInstitute,2023).Theissueofvestedinterestsandwidespreadcontinued(andpossiblyevenincreasing)supportforcoalinSouthAfricawouldalsobearelevantissueforpolicy-makersinIndonesiatoconsider.InthecaseofSouthAfrica,theelectricitysupplycrisis,whichwouldhavebeenanidealargumentfortransitioningtowardrenewables,isdrivingdemandstoextendthelifeofcoalassetsandpossiblyevenbuildoutmorecoalinfrastructure(PublicAffairsResearchInstitute,2023).TherulingAfricanNationalCongresswentasfarasissuingarecommendationforEskomtodelaythedecommissioningofitsagingcoalpowerplantstominimizeload-shedding.Thecontradictionbetweenthediscussionofacceleratedphase-outsundertheJETPandlifeextensionsreflectsthecontroversyaroundelectricityplanningandtheimplementationoftheenergytransition.Despiteannouncementsandtargets,manypoliciesdonotcometofruition.Box1outlinesthreedriversforthisgapbetweenpolicyandimplementation.OverviewoftheSouthAfricaJETPIPandComparisonwiththeIndonesianContextThissectiondescribesthekeyfeaturesandchallengesofSouthAfrica’sJETPIPandidentifieskeysimilaritiesanddifferenceswiththeIndonesiancontext.BudgetAllocationsandPrioritySectorsSouthAfricacreatedtheJETPIPtodefineitsprimaryinvestmentneedsinthefieldsofelectricity,new-energyvehicles,andgreenhydrogenforthenext5yearstosupporttheobjectivesofenergysecurity,economicgrowth,andjusttransition.TheJETPIPalsohighlightsinitiativesrelatedtotheelectricitysector’stransitionintheMpumalangaProvince,aswellasoutliningtwocrucialcross-cuttingpriorities(skillsdevelopmentandmunicipalcapacity).TheJETPIPestimatesthattotalinvestmentintheidentifiedsectorsisUSD98.7billion.Itshouldbenoted,therefore,thattheIPG’spledgeofUSD8.5billioncannotfundalltheinvestmentslisted.Instead,themostcatalyticprogramsandprojectsthatarereadytobeimplementedintheJETIP’sportfolioofneedsshouldbeprioritized.Inaddition,thereisaneedforadditionalfundingtoimplementalltheidentifiedactions.IISD.org7WhatCanIndonesiaLearnfromSouthAfrica’sExperienceoftheJustEnergyTransitionProcess?Tables1and2showthetotalJETIPfundingrequirementspersectorforthenext5years,aswellastheindicativeallocationofthepledgedUSD8.5billion.Table1.SouthAfricaJETIPfundingrequirementspersector,2023–2027Fundingrequirements2023–2027ZARbillion(USDbillion)Electricitysector711.4(47.2)Newenergyvehiclesector128.1(8.5)Greenhydrogensector319(21.2)Skillsdevelopment2.7(0.18)Municipalcapacity319.1(21.3)TOTAL1,480(98.7)Source:ThePresidency,RepublicofSouthAfrica,2022.AsTables1and2show,highpriorityisgiventotheelectricitysector,whichtakesup48%ofthetotalbudgetallocation.Theprimaryinvestmentareasforinfrastructureintheelectricitysectorareasfollows:•tohandlethedecommissioningoftheretiringcoalgenerationfleetinaccordancewiththerevisedIntegratedResourcePlanwhilesimultaneouslyimplementingtherapidandlarge-scalegenerationofrenewableenergy;•topromptlyenhancethetransmissiongridinfrastructuretoaccommodatethetransitiontorenewableenergy;•toupdateandmodernizetheelectricitydistributionsystem.Table2showsthatover73%ofthebudgetforelectricitygoestowardnewsolarPVandnewwind,whileabout20%ofthebudgetgoestotransmission.Table2.SouthAfricanationalelectricitysector’sinfrastructureinvestmentneeds,2023–2027Nationalelectricitysector’sinfrastructureinvestmentneedsZARbillionCoalplantdecommissioning4.1Transmission131.8Distribution13.8NewsolarPV233.2Newwind241.7Newbatteries23.1TOTAL1,480(98.7)Source:ThePresidency,RepublicofSouthAfrica,2022.IISD.org8WhatCanIndonesiaLearnfromSouthAfrica’sExperienceoftheJustEnergyTransitionProcess?TheImportanceofUpgradingtheTransmissionGridTheSouthAfricaJETPIPallocatesZAR647.7billion(35.4USDbillion)toelectricityinfrastructure,or48%ofthetotalJETPinvestmentneedsofZAR1,480billion(USD98.7billion).Around20%oftheinfrastructurefundisallocatedforthedevelopmentoftransmissionsystem.SouthAfrica’selectricitylandscapeoperatessimilarlytoIndonesia’sintermsofthestrongpresenceofthegovernment,whereitsstateutilitycompany,Eskom,controlsthesupplychainfromgenerationtodistributionandisthesolebuyerofpower.However,recentregulatorychangeshavegraduallyerodedthismonopoly.Forexample,independentgeneratorsarenowpermittedtodevelopprojectsandselloutputdirectlythroughtheEskom-ownedpowernetworktolargeconsumers.Since2019thePresidentofSouthAfrica,CyrilRamaphosamandatedthesplitofEskomintothreedivisions:generation,transmissionanddistribution(Paton,2019).Thismove,partoflargerreformefforts,willspreadthecontroloverthethreefunctionsandmaycreateopportunitiestoaccelerategridstrengtheningandupgrade.However,implementationremainsdifficultandcontroversial.Intermsoftransmission,thetwocountries’situationsaresomewhatcomparable.SouthAfrica’stransmissioninfrastructurelacksthecapacitytoacceptelectricity,especiallyfromthenewrenewableenergypowerplants.Indonesiaalsourgentlyneedstoupgradeitsoutdatedtransmissionsystemtoadapttotheflexiblenatureoftheincreasedshareofrenewablesinthegrid.TransformingIndonesia’selectricitytransmissionsystemiscriticaltoensuringthereliabilityofpowersupplyfromrenewablesources:therefore,theJETPIPcouldbeakeyopportunitytoraiseambitionsinthisarea.Currently,Java–BaliistheonlyinterconnectedgridsysteminIndonesia,withothersystemsremainingisolated.Indonesiaaspirestocompletetheinterconnectionofallmajorislandstobefollowedbyinter-islandpowergridconnectionasstatedintheGrandStrategyofEnergy(NationalEnergyCouncil,2022).However,thefeasibilityoftheplanremainsquestionableduetothelengthyplanninganddevelopmenttimesandcapital-intensivenatureofinterconnectionprojects.ItwillbeevenmorechallengingifitistobeadoptedaspartofJETP.ThebrieftimewindowofJETP(only3to5years)demandsquickwinstobeincludedintheprojectpipeline.Onlycertaintransmissionprojectsarelikelytomeetthecriteria,suchasanupgradeoranexpansionofexistingsystemsoraconnectionbetweentwosystemsliketheongoingJava–Baliconnectionproject.Generally,ittakesaround10yearstobuildagreenfieldtransmissionline.Thiscaneventakelongerconsideringthetime-to-builddelays.Thecurrenttransmissionplanisstillnotinlinewiththeambitiontohaveinterconnectedgridsystemsthataredesirableforanincreasedshareofvariablerenewableenergy.IntheNationalElectricityCompany(PerusahaanListrikNegara/PLN)’scurrentbusinessplan(NationalElectricitySupplyBusinessPlan/RencanaUsahaPenyediaanTenagaListrik/RUPTL2021–2030),PLNplanstobuild1.4timesthecurrenttransmissionlines’lengthand2.2timesthecurrentcapacityofmainsubstationsbetween2021and2030(PLN,2021)Thisnumberisbasedontheobjectiveofbuildingreliabletransmissionsystemsthatconnectlocallyavailableenergysourceswithdemand,minimizingtheneedforaninterconnectedgrid.WithahigherIISD.org9WhatCanIndonesiaLearnfromSouthAfrica’sExperienceoftheJustEnergyTransitionProcess?targetofrenewableenergy,asagreedinJETP,PLNneedstobuildmorethanwhatithasalreadyplanned.Onepotentialbarriertoexpansionisthecurrentownershipstructure.ThecurrentsystemisownedandoperatedbyPLN,allowinglittleroomforprivatesectorparticipation.GridimprovementwillrequirealargeamountofinvestmentthatPLNneedstorecover.ThedevelopmentofNusantaraGridwillneedinvestmentofUSD100billionuntil2050(InstituteforEssentialServicesReform[IESR]etal.,2021)whichdoesnotincludeinter-islandconnectivity(Guitarra,2022).PLN’ssmart-gridprogram,aimedatimprovingtheefficiencyandproductivityofthegrid,requirescapitalexpendituresofuptoIDR25trillion(aroundUSD1.7billion)inthefirstphase.Thesecondphase,whichfocusesonresilience,customerengagement,sustainability,andself-healing,willrequirecapitalexpenditureofuptoIDR50trillion(aroundUSD3.4billion)(Arifin,2021).ThetotalinvestmentofUSD5billionisalmostsixtimesPLN’snetprofitofUSD887millionin2021.Deliveringthesevolumesofinvestmentwillrequireinnovation.Overall,themovesinSouthAfricatoprioritizethedevelopmentofthetransmissionnetworkalongsideinstitutionalreformstoenableadditionalmodelsofownershipandinvestmentshouldbeincludedinpolicy-makingdiscussionsinIndonesia.FocusonCoal-DependentRegionsSouthAfrica’sJETPIPputsanemphasisonjusttransitionmeasuresinitscoal-dependentprovince,Mpumalanga,whichaccountsformorethan80%ofthecountry’scoalproduction.Transitioningintocleanenergywillaffectaround90,000peopleemployedinthecoalminesandpowerplantsinthisregion,moreemployeesinthecoalsupplychainandservices,localcommunitiesaffectedbythecoalphaseout,andsmallandmedium-sizedenterprises,aswellaspeopleself-employedeitherformalorinformallyincoal-relatedbusinesses.Mpumalangaishometo12ofEskom’s15CFPPs,includingthelargestCFPPinthecountry,KusilePowerPlant.Afterstartingoperationin2017,Kusile’slasttwounitswillbecompletedin2024,foratotalcapacityof4,800MW.Meanwhile,EastKalimantan,thelargestcoal-producingprovinceofIndonesia,has21CFPPsthatsuppliedmorethan45%oftheprovince’selectricityin2022(EastKalimantanProvincialGovernment,2023).ThelargestCFPPsaremostlylocatedonJavaisland,hometo55%ofIndonesia’spopulation.Tolowertheshareofcoalinpowerproduction(andhenceincreaserenewableenergy’sshareoftheenergymix),PLNplannedtoretireoldandinefficientCFPPsinJavaandSumatra,withatotalcapacityofaround4.8GW.Evenwiththisgoal,itwillnotmeettheJETP’stargetofreaching34%ofrenewableenergyshareby2030.TomeettheJETPtarget,IndonesiashouldconsidercancellingallCFPPscurrentlyinRUPTL’spipeline(2.9GW),retiremoreCFPPs(includingthoseownedbyindependentpowerproducersandcaptiveplantsupto8.2GW),andreplacethelostcoalcapacitywithrenewableenergy(IESR,2023).Indonesiahasbeentheworld’slargestexporterofcoalsince2005,withtotalproductionof687milliontonnesin2022,ofwhich72%(494milliontonnes)wasexported(MinistryofEnergyandMineralResources,2023a),mainlytoChina,India,Japan,andSouthKoreaIISD.org10WhatCanIndonesiaLearnfromSouthAfrica’sExperienceoftheJustEnergyTransitionProcess?(Kusnandar,2022).Thelucrativecoalmarketofthepast2yearsboostedthestate’snon-taxrevenuefromthemineralsandminingsectortorecordlevels:IDR124.4trillionin2021(Syahputra,2022)andIDR183.35trillionin2022,around25%ofthetotalnon-taxrevenue(MinistryofFinance,2023).Morethan80%ofthenon-taxrevenueisfromcoalroyaltiesalone(Julian,2023).In2022,theminingsectorhad244,945localemployeesand5,355foreigneremployees(MinistryofEnergyandMineralResources,2023b).Coalphase-outwillaffectregionsthathaveahighdependenceoncoal.Forexample,SangattaMineandPaserMine,whichhavebeenincommercialoperationsince1992and1993,respectively,havecreatedeconomicdependenceforthelocalpeople,notonlyintheimmediateareabutalsoinneighbouringregionswithinterlinkedsupplychains.Indonesia’scomplexrelationshipwithcoalcallsforthetransitiontobecarefullymanagedtopreventdetrimentalsocio-economicimpacts.Tobeabletotransitionawayfromcoaltorenewableenergy,moreattentionneedstobegiventojusttransitionaspectsinbothcoal-producingandcoal-reliantregions.Inadditiontodirectandindirectemployeesoftheoverallcoalvaluechain,localcommunitiesmoregenerallyneedtobeactivelyengagedindecisionmakingovertheclosureofcoalminesandretirementofCFPPs.AkeylessonfromtheexperienceinSouthAfricaisthatamechanismisneededtomakesurethatlocalcommunitiesareconsultedfirstbeforedecidingontheinvestmentplanandtomakesuretofacilitatedirectandmeaningfulinputontheinvestmentplanfromthelocalcommunity.ThesocialjusticeelementisimportantbecausethatiswhatsetsJETPapartfrompreviousfinancingcooperation.Itemphasizesthejusticeelement,notmerelyfocusingonthemeasureoftonnesofCO2equivalent(Kramer,2022).TheFinancialMechanismIndonesiashouldconsiderthefinancingprinciplessetoutintheSouthAfricaJETPIPwhiledevelopingitsownapproach.Theseprinciplesinclude,amongothers,technologytransfer,additionality,andmainstreamingofjusttransitioncomponents.AccountingfortheseprincipleswillensurethequalityofJETPfinancewhileatthesametimeaddressingfinancingimpedimentstoIndonesia’senergytransitionefforts,suchasthelackofbankableandsizableprojectsandthehighcostoffunds.MorestrategiesneedtobedevelopedtoovercomeoutstandingissuesthathamperIndonesia’srenewableenergydevelopment,includingfossilfuelsubsidiesandlocalcontentrequirements.Itiscriticaltodevelopfinancingprinciplesthatstrikeabalancebetweenensuringcredibilityofsupportedprojectsandprogramsandprotectingnationalinterests.JETPIPfinanceshouldalsoconsiderUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeprinciplesthatnotonlyfocusonthefinancingitselfbutalsooffersbroadersupportstobuildcapacityandensuretechnologyandskillstransfertoimproveIndonesia’sclimateresponseconsideringitscapabilities,nationalcircumstances,andpriorities.Financeshouldalsobeadditionaltoexistingcommitmentsandavoidrelabellingofongoing,planned,andcommittedsupports.OnecriticismoftheSouthAfricanJETPhasbeenthedifficultyinclearlydistinguishinghowmuchofitisgenuinelyadditional.IISD.org11WhatCanIndonesiaLearnfromSouthAfrica’sExperienceoftheJustEnergyTransitionProcess?WhiletheIPGandIndonesiahaveagreedtosplitthetotalcommitmentsinto50%privatefundingand50%publicfunding,thesplitsbetweengrantsandconcessionalloansstillneedtobeagreedontoreflecttheenormousfinancingneedstoimplementjusttransitionmeasures.InSouthAfrica’sJETPIP,grantsandtechnicalassistancemakeupatinypercentage(slightlybelow4%),whileconcessionalloansmakeupthemajorityofthecommitment(63%),followedbycommercialloansandguarantees(18%and15%,respectively).Bothpartiesalsoneedtomakesurethatfinancingcomesintheformofconcessionalloansandavoidsmoreexpensivecommercialloans,somethingthatisseenasabarriertorenewableenergydevelopmentinIndonesia.IndonesiashouldalsofollowSouthAfricainrequiringmoreadvantageousrisk-sharingarrangements,includingprovidingdebtinlocalcurrencyandlimitingtheuseofgovernmentguarantees.Anotherimportantfinancingissuetobeconsideredisthatfinancingforjusttransitioncomponents,whichaddresstheimpactsonlivelihoods,localgovernments,andsmallbusinesses,shallbemainstreamedandintegratedintoallJETIPprogramsandprojects.InSouthAfrica’scase,thesocialcomponentreceivesaround26%oftotalfundingandthelargerportion(74%)goestowardinfrastructuredevelopment.Privatefundingwillnaturallypreferinvestmentwithtangiblereturns,suchasinfrastructure,butthisshouldbeaccompaniedwithjusttransitioncomponents.Publicfunding,includinggrants,willbeusedasseedfundingandwillhelppreparethesocialfoundationforjusttransition.Recognizingtheimportanceofthis,itdeservestoreceiveahigherportionoffunding.SouthAfricamakesinvestmentintransmissionanddistributionsystemsaprioritythatshouldbetackledfirst.Meanwhileinvestmentinrenewableenergysupplyissetasthelastoftheinvestmentsequencing(Figure2).SouthAfricastartedtheRenewableEnergyIndependentPowerProducersProgramin2011andintroducedrenewableenergyauctionschemestoincreasepowercapacitythroughprivatesectorinvestment,mostlyinrenewableenergy.Theauctionschemehasmanagedtoreducethepriceofrenewables,notablysolarPVandwind,by75%forPVand54%foronshorewind,injustthreeroundsofauctions,orabout4years(Kitzingetal.,2022).Withalotofprojectsinthepipeline,itisunderstandablethatinvestmentonrenewableenergysupplyisplacedlastininvestmentsequencing.AkeydifferencebetweenSouthAfricaandIndonesiaisthattherenewablesindustryinSouthAfricaissignificantlymoremature,duetoalongerhistoryofdeploymentandprocurement.Indonesiahasnotyetarrivedatthepointofcheaprenewables,althoughitseemsthatauctionsonfloatingsolarPVprojectshavemanagedtolowerthepricetoUSD0.0368/kWh,thelowestinthecountry’shistory(Christianetal.,2021).Also,thecurrentshareofrenewableenergy(10.4%in2022)meansthatitisstillstrugglingtoachieveitsownrenewableenergytargetof23%by2030,letalone34%.Atthesametime,transmissionwilltakealongtimetobuildandneedstobeprioritized.Withthesechallenges,Indonesianeedstobeextracautiousinselectinginvestmentprioritiesandsequencing.IISD.org12WhatCanIndonesiaLearnfromSouthAfrica’sExperienceoftheJustEnergyTransitionProcess?Figure2.InvestmentsequencingofSouthAfrica’sJETPSource:ThePresidency,RepublicofSouthAfrica,2022.RecommendationsforIndonesia’sJETPProcess1.SelectProjectstoBeIncludedintheJETPIPCarefullyandBeAbletoDemonstrateResultsBothIndonesiaandSouthAfricaneedtoanswerthechallengesindeliveringenergytransitionresultswithintheJETPperiodofbetween3and5years.ProgramsandprojectsthatareeligibletobeincludedinJETPneedtobecarefullyselectedtobeabletoshowprogresswithinshortperiodoftimedespitetheirlong-termcharacteristics.Infrastructureprojects,notablypowertransmissionprojects,havetime-to-builddelaysthatneedtobetakenintoaccount.2.AgreeonaStrongEnergyPolicyThatBindsthePowerSectorinIndonesiatotheCoalPhase-OutPlanasLaidOutintheJETPIPSouthAfrica’senergycrisisandtheongoingdebatesaroundpotentialdelaysshuttingdowncoalpowerplants(Sguazzin&Burkhardt,2023)maylookabitdifferentfromIndonesia.Indonesiahasbeenexperiencingoversupplyinelectricitysince2020,especiallyinJava,Bali,andSumatera(NationalEnergyCouncil,2022).However,delayingcoalphase-outisalsounlikelytohappenifastrongpolicythatbindsPLNandIPPsisabsent.Indonesia’senergyplanningandpolicyarevulnerabletoglobalgeopoliticalchange,asevidencedbytheeffectsofRussia’sinvasionofUkraineonnationalenergypoliciesaroundtheworld.GlobalfossilenergypriceshavedrivenIndonesia’sdomesticenergypolicytorespondtothemarketbyincreasingproductiontargets,asevidencedinvariousgovernmentplanningdocuments,includingMEMR’sstrategicplan.Thechallengeishowtomakepolicymorealignedwithlong-termplanningandthecommitmenttothetransitionfromcoal.PLN’sinternalplanstograduallyshutdowncoalplants,startingwith6.17GWofCFPPsinJavaandSumatraby2030(Setiawan,2022)areagoodsign,indicatingthatperhapstherewillbefewerdifficultieswhenitcomestoimplementation.However,theSouthAfricanexampleshowsthatifkeyactorsarenotalignedwiththeagreedtargetsandplans,implementationmaybeachallenge.Forthedevelopmentoftransmissionsystems,thereisabiggapbetweenwhatPLNhasplannedinits2021–2030businessplan(RUPTL)andtheneedtobuildmoretransmissionsystemsthatareinterconnectedandmoderntosupportmorevariablerenewableenergycomingintothesystem.Currently,PLNplanstobuild1.4timesthecurrentlengthoftransmissionlinesand2.3timesthecurrentcapacityofsubstationsby2030.ForenergyTransmissiongridandmunicipaldistributioninfrastructureDecompositionandrepurposingofcoalassetsSocialfoundationsplanningandcommunitysupportIncreasingthesupplyofRE;foundationforEVandGH2sectordevelopmentIISD.org13WhatCanIndonesiaLearnfromSouthAfrica’sExperienceoftheJustEnergyTransitionProcess?transitiontomaterialize,PLNneedstomultiplythespeedandfinancialcapabilitytobuildevenmoretransmissioncapacitythanithasalreadyplanned.Thiscanonlybeachievedwithprivatesectorsupportandattractiveprofit-sharingmechanismsthatworkforthebusinessmodelsofbothPLNandprivatecompanies.TheSouthAfricanJETPIPallocates20%ofitselectricityinfrastructurefundstogridinvestment.IndonesiashouldconsideradoptingasimilarapproachforitsIP.3.FocusClearlyontheSocialImpactsofJETPItneedstobeemphasizedagainthatJETPisnotsimplyaninfrastructurefinancepackage.Italsoaimstoaddressthesocialimpactsofthecleanenergytransition,andassuch,shouldbestructuredtoprioritizeprojects’socialbenefits:employment,supporttolocaleconomies,andthebestuseofresources.Supportforcoal-dependentregionssuchasEastKalimantanshouldbewellplannedandfocusonpeopleandcommunitiesbeyondworkersandpotentialrepurposeofcoalminesandplants.Thesupportshouldalsoensurethattheprocessisparticipatory,transparent,andprotectivetowardsmarginalizedcommunities.Inpractice,thiscouldmeanthatprojectscanreceivemoregenerousfinancialsupportiftheyareaddressingenergyaccessbarriers,arelocatedinformercoal-producingregions,orarelinkedtocommunityenergyschemes.Projectsthatmakeuseofexistinginfrastructure—likerepurposingofgridinfrastructurenearformercoalplantstohostnewrenewableenergygeneration—couldalsobesingledoutforsupport.Finally,projectsthatavoidtheuseofscarceresources,suchasagriculturalland,couldalsobeprioritized,forexample,throughthedeploymentofsolarPVonwarehouseroofsandabovecarparks.WhiletheJETPisafantasticopportunitytorethinktheenergysystem,theupcoming6-monthperiodtodevelopthecomprehensiveinvestmentplanwillbecriticalforthesuccessofIndonesia’senergytransition.Withoutseriousreformstoremovestructuralbarrierstorenewableenergydeployment,thedealwillnotsucceed,and,withoutamethodforbalancingthesocialandeconomicbenefitsofprojects,thetransitionmaynotbeas“just”asintended.OneofthehighlightedissuesintheSouthAfricanJETPprocessishowthegovernmentseemstoneglectthehardworkofnegotiatingwiththelabourunions,whichunderstandablyresultedinconcernsandpushbackfromthelocalcommunitieswhoselivelihoodsdependoncoalminingandcoalpowerplants.Therefore,Indonesianeedstoensurethatinputfromcivilsociety,affectedcommunities,andtheresearchcommunityaretakenintoaccount—itisessentialtoaddressconcernsandavoidpotentialpitfalls.4.SeizetheOpportunityoftheJETPIPandUsePublicFundstoLeveragePrivateInvestmentTheSouthAfricanJETPIPservesasablueprintfortheentireenergytransitionroadmap.ItidentifiesthefinancialrequirementsofUSD98.7billionoverthenext5years,tocomefrombothpublicandprivatesectors,andthattheUSD8.5billionpledgedundertheJETPdealisjustonefundingsourcetocarryouttheentiresectortransformation.Indonesiaisinthesamesituation.TheUSD20billionpledgedintheJETPdealaccountsforonlyasmallpercentageofthetotalfundingrequiredtodeliverajustenergytransition.Differentestimatesoftheactualneedforenergytransformationaremuchhigher—roughlyIISD.org14WhatCanIndonesiaLearnfromSouthAfrica’sExperienceoftheJustEnergyTransitionProcess?USD240billiontoreduceemissionsby2030(MinistryofFinanceestimate)(Sukarno,2022),orUSD22billion/year(IESRetal.,2021),orUSD1trillionuntil2060(MinistryofEnergyandMineralResources,2022).ThereforeIndonesiashouldreplicateSouthAfrica’sefforttocomeupwiththetotalnumbersforrequiredfinance,andincludethisintheJETPIP.Thiswouldserveasaguidanceforhowmuchfinancingshouldberaisedandhowtobestprioritizetheprojects.Indonesiashouldcarefullyallocatepublicfinancetoleveragemaximumprivateinvestment.LimitedfiscalspaceshouldnotbeanexcuseforalackofpublicfundingtosupportenergytransitionwhenIndonesiacontinuesspendinglavishlyonfossilfuelsubsidies.In2022,thesesubsidiesreachedarecordIDR551.2trillion(USD37billion(Kristianus,2023),whichcouldhavebeendivertedtodevelopmentpriorities,includingenergytransitionmeasures.5.MitigateRiskandEnsureSmoothImplementationoftheJETPbyPrioritizingtheAchievementofaBroadConsensusAcrossGovernmentAmongthechallengesSouthAfricaisfacingintheimplementationofJETParevestedinterestsandagrowingwidespreadsupportforcoal.Thereisatrendofexploitingthecurrentenergycrisisasanargumenttoextendandexpandthelifetimeofcoaloperations.Onecrucialfactorcontributingtothisdilemmaisthelackofagreementwithinthegovernmentitself.Theabsenceofaunifiedstancebetweenthegovernmententitiesinvolvedhascauseddiscord,leadingtoconflictingpoliciesandobjectives.TopreventthesamescenariofromhappeninginIndonesia,itshouldbeaprioritytoachieveabroadconsensusacrossthegovernment,especiallyamongthelineministriesresponsibleforexecutingtheprogramsthatfallundertheJETP’sscope.Byfosteringagreementandalignmentamongthesekeystakeholders,theissuesofcoalretirementcanbeproactivelyaddressedandthecountrycanchartacoherentpathtowardsustainableenergyalternatives.6.TranslatetheCommitmenttoJETPIntoLegislationJETPisdesignedtobeamultiyeardeal,andtheUSD20billionpledgedatCOP27wasjustthefirstphaseoffunding.Toensurethecountry’scommitmenttodecarbonizationandcoalphase-outwillcontinuethroughoutmultipleadministrations,itshouldbetranslatedintolegislationsimilartoUUNo.17/2004ontheKyotoProtocolandUUNo16/2016ontheParisAgreement.Anotheralternativeistoissueapreside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