itif.orgInnovationAmplifiers:GettingMoreBangfortheBuckonGHGReductionsEDRIGHTORJULY2023ThepaceofGHGreductionsneedstogreatlyaccelerate.Recentinvestmentsareagreatstartbutarenotsufficient.Weneedtoamplifythecurrentinvestmentstoachievecleanenergyasthenormandimprovecompetitiveness.KEYTAKEAWAYSThepaceofglobalGHGreductionsisfarfromwhat’sneededtostabilizetheclimate.Emissionsaregoingupincontrasttoprojectionsandcommitmentsthatthey’dbegoingdown.ThetaxincentivesintherecentIRAlegislationwillexpandcleanenergygeneration,distribution,andusebutareinsufficienttodrivetheRD&Dneededtodecreasethecostsoflow-carbontechnologies,supportinfrastructure,andimplementsolutions.Forthecurrentportfolioofinvestments,DOEandotheragenciesneedtocapturesignificantlymorevaluefromtheresourcestheycommitbyadoptingknowledgeandapplicationamplifierswithgoal-directedresearch.DOEshoulddevelophighleveragecapabilities(e.g.,electrochemistry,composites,energystorage);pursuescienceandengineeringtoaddresscrosscuttingconstraints;andrallydiversecollaboratornetworksfocusedonaudaciousgoals.DOEalsoshouldencouragespilloversintoadjacentorunseenapplicationsandmarkets;increaseoutreachandtransparencytoengageecosystemsofcollaborators;andusetheinvestmentsinhydrogenandCCUShubstoutilizearangeofamplifiers.INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATIONJULY2023PAGE2CONTENTSKeyTakeaways...................................................................................................................1ExecutiveSummary............................................................................................................2Introduction.......................................................................................................................3WhatIsanAmplifier?.........................................................................................................4ImprovedClarityandFewerConstraints.............................................................................4KnowledgeSpillovers.......................................................................................................5ApplicationSpillovers......................................................................................................5ClearSolutionPaths........................................................................................................5StrategicUseofResources..............................................................................................6IntersectionalThinking....................................................................................................6SupportNetworks...........................................................................................................6Goal-DirectedResearch...................................................................................................7HowCanWeFosterAmplifiers?...........................................................................................7HowAreDOE,DOD,andOtherAgenciesUsingAmplifiers?....................................................9HowCouldAmplifiersMaximizetheImpactofRecentFunding?...........................................11ConclusionsandRecommendations...................................................................................13Endnotes.........................................................................................................................15EXECUTIVESUMMARYTheworldisbehindthecurveinaddressingclimatechange.Weneedtoamplifytheimpactofglobalgreenhousegas(GHG)reductioninitiatives.DespiterecenthistoricUnitedStatesinvestmentstospurcleanenergytechnologies,wesimplycan’treduceGHGsfastenoughwiththelimitedresourcescommittedglobally—andadditionalmassivefundingisunlikely.WeneedbiggerandfasterGHGreductionsfromthefundsalreadycommitted.Buthow?PursuingamplifiersisanunderutilizedapproachthatcouldcascadeGHGreductionsinmultipleareassimultaneously.Amplifiersleverageresourcesandknowledgetogreatlyincreaseimpact,removeconstraints,orexpandapplications.Theyspurcreativethinkingthatleadstoinnovativesolutionstotoughproblems.Amplifierssuchasspilloversincreasetheimpactofinnovations.Forexample,lithium-ionbatteriesdevelopedforsmallconsumerelectronicsaremakinganevenlargerimpactpoweringelectricvehiclesandstationarybatteries.Lookingahead,innovationsincorecapabilitiessuchaselectrochemistrycouldamplifyGHGreductionsinbatteries,hydrogenfuelcells,andwaterelectrolyzers,andconvertingcarbondioxide(CO2)intovalue-addedproducts.Likeincreasingthepowerofamplifiersataconcert,weneedto“crankitup”intermsofGHGreductions.TheDepartmentofEnergy(DOE)andresearchpartnerscangetmorebangforthebuckfromrecentinvestmentsbypursuingamplifiersin“EnergyEarthshots.”1DOEshouldINFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATIONJULY2023PAGE3engagediverseinnovatornetworksacrossmultiplepartnerstodevelopandapplyexpertisewithhighleveragepotential(e.g.,electrochemistry,compositematerials,separations,energystorage).MakingbigGHGreductionsfastisvital.UsingamplifierstodeliverthosebiggerreductionsfasterwillbecrucialtoachievingaudaciousGHGreductionandsustainabilitygoals.INTRODUCTIONSocietyiswaybehindthepacewhenitcomestoGHGreductionsneededtoavoidtheworstimpactsofclimatechange.2Recentinvestmentsprovideastartforthetransformationrequiredbutarefarfromthelevelcurrentlyneeded.Onewaytoachievefargreaterimpactfromthelimitedresourcesavailable—get“morebangforthebuck”—isbyidentifyingandpursuingamplifierstoincreaseleverageandmarketpull.Thescaleofthetransformationneededacrossenergysystems,manufacturing,buildings,transportation,supplychains,andthewaythatpeopleuseenergyiscolossal.Theresourcescommittedtothisradicalchangeinaverycompressedtimewindowarelimitedconsideringthescaleofthechangeneeded.Thisisaglobalproblem,andthelevelofglobalinvestmentneededwillbeenormous,buttheconsequencesofnotmakingthetransformationareunthinkable.Estimatesoftheglobalinvestmentneededareabove$130trillionthrough2050.3Between2021and2025,$2.6trillionperyearisneeded—andthisincreasesbeyond2025to$4.5trillion/year.Bycomparison,the$35billionauthorizedforcleanenergytechnologyismerelyablip.4Andprospectsforadditionalfundinginthenextfewyearsaredim,somakingthemostofthelimitedfundsisvital.Gettingmorebangforthebuckmatters,astheinnovationsneededtoenablethetechnologicalchangeareenormousandlow-carbontechnologiesneedtogettopriceandperformanceparitywithincumbentsolutionsfast.6Thiswillrequirelargeanddurableresearch,development,anddemonstration(RD&D)investmentsasadoptionfacesdisplacingwell-entrenched,less-expensivetechnologiesandprocesses.Sectorssuchasindustry,aviation,andmarineareveryheterogeneous,whileintegration(e.g.,complexlinkagesbetweeninputsandoutputs)andrisksforimplementationarehigh.Theneedsforinnovationtoachievenet-zeroemissionsareprofound.Nearlyhalfthetechnologiesneededtoreachnetzeroby2050arestillinprototypeordemonstrationstage.5Sectorssuchasindustry,aviation,andmarineareevenmoredependentonemergenttechnologies.Acceleratedadoptionwillrequiredemonstrationsinmultipleconfigurations,applications,andregionalcontexts,soinnovationinimplementationisimportanttoo.Thelow-carbonapproachesfortransitioningenergyusesuchasrenewablehydrogen,convertingCO2intousefulproducts,electrifyingmanufacturingprocesses,andmitigatingremainingemissionsfromhard-to-abateprocessesbycarboncaptureutilizationandstorage(CCUS)aresignificantlymoreexpensivethanincumbentsolutions.Thatpricegapwillleadtoslowadoption,whichmeansit’sessentialtoreachpriceparitywhiledeliveringthesameperformance.6There’sacriticalneedtoamplifyoureffortsgivenlimitedresources,ashorttimewindow,andmyriadadoptionchallenges.INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATIONJULY2023PAGE4ThisreportexploreshowtoidentifyandpursueamplifierstoaccelerateGHGreductions,highlightingpolicyenablersandwaysagenciescanexpandtheimpactoffundsprovidedbytheInflationReductionAct(IRA)andBipartisanInfrastructureLaw(BIL).WHATISANAMPLIFIER?Amplifiersareapproachestoprogrammanagementthatleverageresourcesandknowledgetogreatlyincreasetheimpactofinputs,removeconstraints,orexpandarangeofapplications.InthecontextofGHGreductions,anamplifiergreatlyexpandsthemagnitudeofemissionsreductionsfortheresourcesavailable.Figure1showstheseveralcategoriesofamplifiers,followedbyillustrativeexamplesforeach.Butastherearemanywaysamplifierscanbecreativelyapplied,thislistisnotmeanttobeexhaustive.Figure1:CategoriesofamplifiersImprovedClarityandFewerConstraintsTherearemultiplewaysinwhichremovalofconstraints(capital,risk,technicalissues,etc.)andimprovedclaritycanyieldamplifiedimpact.OperationWarpSpeed(OWS)intheUnitedStateswassuccessfulinremovingRD&DandregulatoryrisktoaccelerateCOVID-19vaccinedevelopment.7RD&Doftenhasassociatedrisksregardingwhetherofferingswillmeettheneedsofcustomersandifthey’llpurchasetheproductdeveloped.Thegovernmentlargelyeliminatedthoserisksbyguaranteeingthepurchaseofthevaccinesandprovidingfinancingregardlessofregulatoryapproval.Normalregulatoryprocessesformedicalproductscantakeyears—acloudofGoal-DirectedResearchImprovedClarity,FewerConstraintsKnowledgeSpilloversClearSolutionPathwaysStrategicResourcesIntersectionalThinkingSupportNetworksINFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATIONJULY2023PAGE5uncertaintyforproductdevelopers’approvaltimingandapplicationconstraints.Thegovernmentminimizedtheserisksbyfast-trackingapprovalforthevaccinesandaidedcontractinganddistribution,furtherminimizingrisks.Multipleagenciesandprivatesectorcompaniespartneredtospeeddevelopmentanddeploymentwhileeffectivelyaddressinghurdles.TheDefenseAdvancedResearchProjectsAgency(DARPA)playedanearlyrolebyseeingthepotentialforthemRNAtechnologyforvaccines,supportingdevelopment,buildingnetworksofresearchers,andloweringtechnicalrisks—startingeightyearsbeforethepandemic.8DARPAhasahistoryofpioneeringinnovationsthathavebeenpickedupbymarkets.ExamplesincludetheInternet,miniaturizedglobalpositioningsystem(GPS)devices,unmannedaerialvehicles(drones),andflatscreendisplays.9KnowledgeSpilloversSpilloversincreasetherateoflearningandapplicationinareasthatwerenottheoriginaltargetofinnovationactivity.10Knowledgespilloversincorporatenewprinciplesintootherapplicationsincreasingtherateofinnovationinthenewarea.Oneexample,asnotedistheadoptionofsemiconductormanufacturingprocessesandleveragedsiliconproductionwithphotovoltaic(PV)cells.ThiscontributedtothedominanceofPVs(overcompetingthinfilms)after2000withpolysiliconcostsdroppingto10percentthatofthe1975level.9Anotheraspectofthesespilloversoccurswhenresearcherspursueinnovationsinunfamiliarfieldsinwhichtheycandevelopnewinsights.Theseinterloperscanbe“cross-pollinators”thathelpdevelopinnovativeideas.11Thediversityinthinkingattheintersectionoffields,culture,andexperiencescanyielduniqueperspectives.Forexample,theemergencyroom(ER)staffatahospitalwhowereseekinginnovative,nontraditionalmethodstominimizemistakesobservedcarracingpitcrewsunderpressure—notERsatotherhospitals.12ApplicationSpilloversApplicationspilloversinvolveatechnologydevelopedforoneapplicationbeingpickedupbyanotherapplicationoradjacentmarket.Forexample,gasturbinesoriginallydevelopedandappliedforjetengineswerelateradaptedfornaturalgasturbines.13Spilloverscanshareacommonscientificbase,manufacturingtechniques,andoperationskills.ThemultitudeofapplicationspilloversfromtheNASAmoonshotsareprimeexamples.14TheincreasedimpactsandacceleratedspeedfromspilloverswerealsoimportantfortherapidpreparationofmaterialsforWorldWarII,wheretheyenabledcollaborationtoturnfailuresintosuccessesinotherapplicationsandacceleratedprogressinthefaceofscarceinputs.15ClearSolutionPathsAmplifierscanalsorevealnewknowledgethatallowsforaclearerpathtosolutions.ThedevelopmentofvaccinesbyOWSenabledthemappingofsupplychainsfortherapidmanufacture,transportation,anddeploymentofvaccines.Thismappingwasakeypartoftherapidresponsetothepandemic,asitidentifiedvulnerabilitiesandwasusedalongwithmanufacturingforecastingandinvestingtoclosegapsbeforetheyarose.7ThisalsouncoveredthatPfizerknewitssupplychain,asdidSanofi,butknowledgeoftheentiresupplychainneededformanufactureanddistributionwasunknown.Thisisanexampleoffindingclarityonhowtoutilizeacomplexproductionanddeliveryprocessmoreeffectivelyfromendtoend.INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATIONJULY2023PAGE6Therearealsoexampleswhereinnewinsightscancomefrommoreclearlyseeinghowtoorchestratesolutionsincomplex,nonlinear,ormultivariatesystems.Analysesofpatentsassociatedwithcomplexareasshowthedisproportionatebenefitsofscienceuncoveringpreviouslyunrecognizedrelationships.Sciencecanhelpinventorsbothfindtheirwaytounfamiliarplacesandconvinceothersthatwhattheyfoundisvaluable.16StrategicUseofResourcesGreaterimpactisrealizedwhenthevalueisleveragedacrossmultipleorganizations.Forexample,acompanywiththerightstobuildroads,bridges,orcommunicationsnetworkscanoperatemoreefficientlyinmovingitsgoodsorinformation.Thisimpact,however,canbefargreaterifthetechnologyissharedamongmultiplecompaniesconnectingmoreproducers,sellers,andendconsumers.Inanotherexample,systemsengineeringchallengeswerenotreadilydivisibleduringtechnologydevelopmentassociatedwithWWII,sothedevelopmentofradarwasconcentratedattheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology.15Conversely,paralleleffortswerefavoredforfissionandthedevelopmentofpenicillinandmedicinestoaddressmalaria.IntersectionalThinkingFransJohannsen,inTheMediciEffect,explainedthatincreasedcreativitycomeswhentalentedpeoplewithdifferentbackgroundsanddisciplinescollaborate,yieldingstep-changeimprovements.11Creativitywillflourishwhenpeoplewithdiversebackground,cultures,educations,andvaluescollaborate.Attheseintersectionsofthinking,newapproachesandbreakthroughscanoccur.Peopleoutsideacertainfieldofstudydon’thavethesameassumptionsorareabletochallengethosealreadypresent,andideascanbecombinedinnewways.DARPApromotesthisintersectionalityintheteamstheybuildandinteractionstheyspuramongnetworks.TheAdvancedResearchProjectsAgency-Energy(ARPA-E)promotesitattheirinnovationsummitswheretechnologydevelopersfromallovertheglobeworkingondiverseproblemshaveanopportunitytointeract.7SuccessesfromtheARPA-Eprogramincludewide-bandgapsemiconductorsandmobiledetectionformethaneleakdetectionamongthe135companies,morethan1,000patents,andover300licensesresultingfromsupportedprograms.17SupportNetworksSupportnetworksenabletherapidexchangeofknowledgeandspurcreativitybetweenresearchersinoverlappingdisciplines,encouragingcross-fertilizationandinnovation.Whenthesenetworksarefocusedonacommongoal,progresscanbeacceleratedbythecommunityofcollaboratorsthatexpandexpertiseanddrivedurableprogress.Forexample,DARPAisknownforbuildingstrongnetworksofcollaboratorsthatfocusonagoal,withthenetworkstappingabroadrangeofexpertiseanddisciplines.7Thenetworkscanrangefromacademiatoemergingtechnologyfirmsthatlackexperienceasdefensecontractors.Inanotherexample,theUnitedStatesgovernmentspurredthedevelopmentofpublic-privatenetworksleadingtonumerousPVinventions/innovationsinthe1970s.7However,atthesametime,asimilarfederalprogramencouragingpublic-privatenetworksandinnovationecosystemstodrivetheapplicationoftechnologywaslargelyabsent,allowingGermany,Japan,andSpaintohavetheupperhandininstallationspercapita.INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATIONJULY2023PAGE7Goal-DirectedResearchCreativeinnovationwillmakethegreatestdifferenceinaddressingclimatestabilization,ifdirectedtowardthatcause.Thisalignswithpriorlearnings.Goal-directedresearchwasvitaltotheUnitedStatesOfficeofScientificResearchandDevelopment(OSRD)developmentofinnovativesolutionstochallengesduringWWIIsuchastheManhattanProject.12Thatexperiencealsoshowedthetensionsbetweentheneedsforveryrapidinnovationinmultipleareas,severetimeconstraints/urgency,limitedresources,andhighcosts.Discoveringunusualcombinationsofideasviaamplifiersmayberelativelyinexpensive,butcommercializingthosebreakthroughsmayrequiremoretimetofullydeploy,astheseuniquesolutionsarestillrelativelynewanduntested.TheHumanGenomeproject’ssuccesswithprivateRD&Ddirectedtowardasocietalgoalchangedthewaybiomedicalresearchisstructured.18Theevolutionof“grandchallenges”providesadditionalsteeringforresearch.19Thenotionofchallenge-basedresearchhasbeenpickedupinEuropetocreatearesearchagendawithsocietyandactiveparticipantstakeholders.20HOWCANWEFOSTERAMPLIFIERS?Thereareseveralroutestobolsteramplifiers.Projectsandeventsthatgatherexpertsfromdifferentfieldsofstudyencouragecross-fertilizationofideas,learning,andcollaborationsthatleadtonewcombinationsofapproachestosolutions.Gatheringinnovatorsinmultiplefieldsacrossart,sciences,literature,etc.harkensbacktotheMedicis,awealthybankingandmerchantfamilythatspurredinnovationin16thcenturyFlorenceviathismethod.TheresultingnexusofintellectualthinkingcontributedtoEurope’srenaissance.21Thecollisionofdifferentperspectives,lifeexperiences,andculturescanleadtoexperimentationoutsidetheboundsofpreviousthoughtpatterns—whichsometimesareconstrainedbytheestablished“rules”ofafieldofpractice.Peoplethatconsiderproblemsinareasthatarenewtothemdon’thavethebiasesandthereforedon’thavetounlearn“traditional”learning.Thisallowspeopleworkingattheseinterfacestospontaneouslyconnectdisparateconcepts,ideas,ingredients,approaches,etc.Diversenetworks,collaborations,andpartnershipsformwhenpeoplewithdivergentexperiencesandperspectivescometogether.Akeytofosteringintersectionalthinkingistogatherpeoplefromdifferentfieldsandfocustheircreativethinkingonachallenge(e.g.,goal-directedRD&D).Peoplewhoarenaturallycuriousandinterestedintopicsbeyondtheirexpertiseandtraining—andasklotsofthought-provokingquestionsandenjoypursuingthem—aregoodcandidates.ThestrategyoffosteringnetworksiscentraltoDARPA,anditintentionallybringstogetherarangeofexpertsfrommultipledisciplinesandfocusesthemonachallenge.22ThismodelisalsoemployedintheNationalNetworkforManufacturingInnovation(NNMI),wheretheinvolvementofnetworkstoaddresscrosscuttingopportunitiesisrecognized.23Expansionofnetworkstoincludeinternationalpeersinoverlappingfieldscanspeedthetransferofknowledge,identifyinnovationgaps,andavoidduplicationofefforts.ExistingmultilateralprogramsincludetheInternationalEnergyAgency’s(IEA’s)technologycollaborationprograms,MissionInnovation,andtheCleanEnergyMinisterial.6INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATIONJULY2023PAGE8Spurringdevelopmentofnewinsightsincomplexareasisanotherroute.Thiscanoccurinareasthatarewellcovered—wherenewapproaches,tools,orre-examinationofassumptionscanyieldnewpathstosolutions.Oritcanoccurinunexploredareas.Theimprovedabilitytomodelmyriadparametersquicklywithemergingartificialintelligence(AI),machinelearning,quantumcomputing,etc.isexpectedtoprovidegreaterunderstandingofhowtooptimizecomplexsystemsanddynamicallyadjusttochangingmarketneedsandopportunities.Understandinghowtoconnectmarketpushandpullmechanisms,andhowtooptimizeinteractionsacrosscomplexsupplychains,presentsadditionalopportunitiesinthisarea.24Expandingaccesstoinformationorusingthevoluminouslevelofdigitaldataavailabletoidentifytrendsandinterpretthemformorerapiddecision-makingfitshereaswell.Encouragingnewapproachesandbusinessmodelsisyetanotherapproach.Forexample,increasingthescaleofproductionaidstheabilityofcompaniestocompete.Thisleadstolargerandlargerfacilitiesincentralizedlocations.Thepandemic,however,exposedseveralsupplychaingapswiththatmodelandinherentvulnerabilitieswithjust-in-time-delivery.Aconverseapproachispursuingsmallermodularunitsclosertocustomers(shortersupplychains)thatarenimblerandcanachievescalebystackingproductionfromidenticalunits.Thosepursuingdistributedmanufacturingtouttheincreasedopportunitiesforradicallydifferentbusinessmodelsinwhichdata-drivenopeninnovationprovidesgreaterflexibilityandtheabilitytocustomize,andmeetfastdeliveryrequirementsofcustomers.25Inspiringthedevelopmentofdeepexpertiseinareaswithbroadapplicabilityiscentraltoamplification.Therearemultipleopportunitieswheresharedexpertisecouldbenefitcleanenergyinnovation.Forexample,theareaofelectrochemistryiscentraltoinnovationinbatteries,electrolyzers(e.g.,generationofrenewablehydrogen),fuelcells,andmanyothercleantechnologyapplications.9Developmentofexpertiseinthisareaandencouragingexpertstomovefromoneapplicationareatoanotherisawaytoencourageinnovation.Otherareaswhereexpertisecouldbecentraltoinnovationscouldincludeenergystorage,separations,lightweightmaterials,quantumcomputing,AI,advancedmanufacturing/automation,andbiotechnology.Supportingearlymarketsiskey.It’schallengingforentrepreneurstocommercializeinventions.Encouragementintargetedareasofmarketorsocietalchallengescandecreasethehurdlesandspeedinnovation.DARPAusesthisapproachbyservingasanearlymarketforinformationtechnology(IT)products.Byencouraging“connectedRD&D,”DARPAprovidesnotonlyinsightsintocustomerneedsbutalsoconnectionstointerestedpartieswillingtotrialconcepts.26DARPAandtheDepartmentofDefense(DOD)werethefirstadoptersofITadvancesforworkstations(SunMicrosystems,SiliconGraphics)andInternetforerunnersARPANETandMILNET.27DARPAprovidedacriticalassisttothelaunchingofSunbyextendingfundstoacademicinstitutions,therebypermittingthemtoacquireworkstations.OrdersfromDARPA-connectedacademicpartnersaccountedfor80percentoftheordersreceivedbySuninitsfirstyearofbusiness.34DARPAreliedonitsconnectionsandtiestolargerinnovationsystemstonurtureinternalandexternalmultilayerednetworkstospurinnovationwhileengagingadiverserangeofresearchersandendusers.28There’salsotheapproachofofferingprizestospurinnovation,whichwouldseemtosupportinnovationbyentrepreneurs.There’sbeenaboominlargeprizessince1970,withinducementprizesaccountingfor78percentoftotalprizes.29Yet,quantitativeevidencefortheeffectofINFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATIONJULY2023PAGE9prizesisnotstrong.Whereprizesarechosen,theymaybeparticularlyappropriatefordevelopingtechnologytobreakcriticaltechnologicalbarriers,achievehigherperformance,orstimulatethediffusionorcommercializationoftechnologies.30Theseareasalignwithamplifieruse,socarefulselectionofgoalsandmetricsinthedesignofprizescouldbeconsideredtoinspirethosepursuingearlymarkets.Bealertforadjacentmarketsandapplications.Goal-orientedRD&Dshouldrecognizethatwhileinnovationsaretargetedforonearea,theremaybeadjacentmarketsorapplicationswithevenlargerimpactoramoredirectpathwaytoadoption.Ofteninnovatorshavetunnelvision—focusedonmeetingamarketneedthatjustifiestheirtimeandenergyindevelopingasolution—butareunawareofadjacentorunseenmarkets,asnotedbyPeterDruckerdecadesago.31Amplifierscanrevealabroadermarkettoinnovatorsaugmentingthebusinesscaseandprovidinggreaterscale.Thecompanythatdevelopedthefirstcomputer,Univac,sawthatitwouldbegreatforscientificresearchbutdidn’tseethemarketforbusiness,letalonepersonalcomputing.Severalmarketsconnectedwithelectrochemistrymaybemodesttoday,butwhencombinedwiththepotentialforleverageableinnovations,becomequiteattractive.Theglobalmarketforelectrolyzersis$1.2billionin2023butexpectedreach$24billionby2028(acompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)of80percent).32Theglobalmarketforhydrogenfuelcellswas$14.7billion/yearin2021andisprojectedtobea$80billion/yearmarketby2030(CAGR21percent).33Themarketpotentialinchemicalsandfuelsisimmensegiventhearrayofproductsandneedtodecarbonize.34Theglobalmarketforethylene(oneofthelargestcommoditychemicals)in2021was$176billionandisprojectedtoreach$287billionby2030.35Entrepreneurscanspurdisruptiveinnovationbyreorganizingacurrentmarketorcreatinganewonethroughtheapplicationofexistingtechnologiestonewprocessesorbusinessmodels.Thelatterishardtounderstand,asit’sdifficulttodoresearchonamarketthatdoesn’texistyet.Nevertheless,unseenmarketscanbethepathtosuccessandshouldbetappedbyamplifiers.HOWAREDOE,DOD,ANDOTHERAGENCIESUSINGAMPLIFIERS?Severalagenciesrecognizethebenefitsofleveraginginnovationsacrossmultipleareas.Forexample,theNationalEnergyTechnologyLaboratory(NETL)hasalong-runningcrosscutsprogram.Itfocusesonhigh-performancematerials,sensors/controls/cybersecurity,simulation-basedengineering,wastemanagement,andenergystorage.36Theprogramreachesouttotheprivatesectorbyincorporatingcomprehensiveriskassessmentsandtechno-economicanalyses.Severalprogramshaveinternationalcollaborators,suchasthematerialsRD&Darea,whichcollaborateswithexpertsinhigh-temperaturematerialsintheUnitedKingdom.37Acrossmultipledepartments,DOEhasorganizedmulti-officecrosscuttingresearchanddevelopment(R&D)programstoaddresscommonchallenges/objectives,streamlinehand-offsfromearlier-stageresearchtomoreappliedprograms,andavoidunintendedoverlapinprograms.38CrosscutteamslaunchedinFebruary2023workinareaswherethere’sanopportunitytoeffectivelyleverageimpactonbigprojects.39Thecrosscutinitiativeshaveobjectives,actionareas,andtiestoBILandIRAfunding.40SomeoftheseteamsspecificallysupporttheEnergyEarthshots,whoseintentionistoaccelerateprogressonaggressivetargetsandincreasecommunicationanddiversethinkingontheproblems/opportunities.TosupporttheINFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATIONJULY2023PAGE10fundamentalresearchconnectedwiththemultipleEnergyEarthshots,DOEannounced$150millioninfundingoverthreeyearsforsmallteamsfocusedonthecommonchallenges.Itisopentoacademia,privatesectorcompanies,andnongovernmentalorganizations(NGOs).41Additionally,therearejointstrategyteamsthatcoordinateeffortsDOE-wide.FosteringnetworkstospurinnovationwhileaskingandpursuingdifficultquestionstowardcommercializationisafocusoftheEmbeddedEntrepreneurshipInitiative(EEI)fundedbyDARPA.42Theaimistobuildhealthyecosystemswhereincompanieswithinnovativeconceptscancoalescewhilegettingearlyguidanceonwhat’scommerciallyrelevantandthestepsneededtodeliveraproducttothemarketplace.Totapthecapabilitiesandcreativenatureofsmallercompanies,DARPAhasaprogramspecificallyforsmallbusinessestojoinaconsortiumlookingatcreativesolutionstoproblems(e.g.,aninnovation“farmsystem,”perthebaseballanalogy).DARPAalsooffersatwo-yearfellowshipprogramforscientistswithinfiveyearsoftheirPh.D.TheDARPAapproach,usedatARPA-Etotaptheresearchcommunityandencourageentrepreneurstopursuesolutionsalignedwithareasofinterest,hasbeensuccessful.49ARPA-Eprojectshaveattractedmorethan$11.4billioninprivatesectorfunding.43BothDARPAandARPA-Ehavearelativelyflatorganizationalstructure,withahighdegreeofleveragetoacademia,entrepreneurs,andotherstofosterinnovationandcollectideasfromabroadcommunity.Theirsupportisinstrumentalindevelopingadiverseworkforceandprovidingabreedinggroundforyoungscientistsandengineers.Crosscutsarementionedinfundingstreamsforthevariousagencies.Figure2providesalookatthebudgetsforcrosscutprogramsusingpublicdata.ThisviewdoesnotincludeIRAandBILfunds,whicharedefinedtospecificprograms.ThiscoarseanalysisreflectsthepivotofDOEtowarddecarbonization(industry,transportation),investmentstransformingenergy(hydrogen,energystorage),andCO2mitigation.Criticalmineralsandmaterialsareimportanttomultipleareas(batteries,electrolyzers,catalysis,etc.)andarethereforeacrosscut.INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATIONJULY2023PAGE11Figure2:FundingforcrosscuttingareasatDOE(millions)HOWCOULDAMPLIFIERSMAXIMIZETHEIMPACTOFRECENTFUNDING?Amplifiersshouldbeusedtomaximizethefundingimpactfromrecentlegislation.Thisincludes:1.Developingcapabilitiesinexpertiseareaswithhighleverageandimpactpotential.Forexample,expertiseinelectrochemistrycouldbehelpfulindevelopingcreativesolutionsforbatteries,fuelcells,waterelectrolyzers,carboncapture,electro-swingabsorption,selectivecatalyticconversionofnon-petroleum-basedfeedstocksintochemicalsandfuels,andmoreapplications.Thesetechnologiesshareprinciples,materialsandmanufacturingapproaches,andcomponents,soadvancesinoneareacouldbenefitothers.Ananalysisshowsthatadvancedmaterialsandmanufacturingforelectrodescoulddeliver20–45percentofthecost-reductionpotential,whilesharedlearningonthebalanceofplantscoulddeliveranother25–45percentoftheimprovement.9Theimportanceofcriticalmineralsandmaterialsnotedinfigure2andsubstitutionwithchemistriesallowingless-critical,lower-costmaterialsisclearlyimportant.Continueddevelopmentandapplicationofskillsinmaterials,surfacechemistry,andnanotechnologycanimprovetheperformanceandlifetimeofmaterialssolutions.Agenciesshouldfosternetworksofdiversethinkerstopursuedecarbonization.Thiscouldbeintegratedintoseveralcurrentofficesandprograms,includingtheOfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergy(EERE),theVehicleTechnologiesOffice,theHydrogenprogram,theFuelCellTechnologyprogram,theAdvancedMaterialsandManufacturingprogram,andtheEnergyEarthshotsprogram.$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800IndustrialDecarbonizationEnergyStorageAlternateModesofTransportationHydrogenCriticalMineralsandMaterialsCO2RemovalSubsurfaceEnergyInnovationsEnergyWaterNexusINFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATIONJULY2023PAGE122.Identifyingandpursuingfundamentalscienceandtechnologytoaddressconstraintsandotherdeepchallengesinsupportofgoals.Forexample,improvingtheefficiencyofthermalenergytransferisimportanttohigh-temperatureapplicationsforprocessheatviabeneficialelectrification.Improvingtheheattransferefficiencyatscalecouldopendoorsforelectrificationofsteamcrackersaswellassteammethanereformers,methanolplants,etc.44Agencyareasofapplicationcouldincludethefollowing:a.The$150millionfundtoadvancethefundamentalsforEnergyEarthshotsisaclearareawhereamplifiersacrossappliedscienceandengineeringcouldbringdowncostssosolutionscancompetewithincumbenttechnologies.b.ForBasicEnergySciences(BES),amplifiersshouldbepursuedinEnergyFrontierResearchCenters,ComputationalMaterialsandChemicalSciences,EnergyInnovationHubs(fuelsfromsunlight,next-generationbatteries,andenergystorage),andmaterialsscienceandengineering.c.Connectingscience,engineering,andapplied/integrationworkisanopportunity.Incorporatingappliedscienceandengineeringearlyonwiththemorebasicsciencescanhelpidentifyconstraintssotheycanbeaddressedearlyintheconceptdevelopmentcycle.3.Rallyingadiversesetofcontributorsaroundgoal-drivenresearch.TheEnergyEarthshotsareagreatopportunitytofocusthecreativityofcollaboratorsaroundacommongoal.TheCleanFuelsandProductsEnergyEarthshotisgoalorientedandprovidesanexcellentopportunityforpursuingamplifiers.Creatingcross-functionalteamsinwhichindividualsareassignedtoateamforatargetedperiod,yetarestillconnectedtothelargerorganization(e.g.,island-bridgemodel),isasuccessfulapproachforinnovation.45Ouralliesarewrestlingwiththesamecleanenergychallenges,sothisisaprimeopportunitytocollaboratetoresolveconstraintsanddevelopsolutionsthatcancompeteinthemarketplaceonbothpriceandperformance.Specificprogramsincludethefollowing:a.TheCleanHydrogenR&Dprogram,whereintheBILspecificallycallsoutacrosscuttingapproachforabroadperspective(section40313).b.DeploymentofTechnologiestoEnhanceSmartGridFlexibility(section40107,BIL)isalsoanotherwhereabroadnetworkofcontributorsisneeded.c.EnergyEarthshotteamsshouldleveragelearningsfromtheCOVIDvaccineandcompetitivescenarioapproaches.464.Encouragingspillovers.Thisincludesareaswheremultipleusesoradaptationofsolutionsisanticipated.Processheatsolutionssuchasindustrialheatpumps,electricboilers,microwave,infrared,andahostofothersprovideaspacetobeleveragedacrossheavyindustries.47Additionalopportunityareasincludecompositematerials(applicationsinwindturbines,aircraft,roadvehicles,batteries,etc.)andintegrationofheatingandcooling.48Generalpurposespillovers(historicalexamplesincludesteamengines,electricpower,andIT)candriveproductivityacrosstheeconomy,soinvestmentattentiontospilloverscouldhaveverylargereturns.INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATIONJULY2023PAGE135.Increasingtransparencyofkeyinformationrelatedtogoals.Agenciescanincreasetransparencyandinformationflowduringprojectsratherthandeliveratomeatendofprojectswellaftertheresearchwasperformed.Otherroutestobreakdowninformationalbarrierscouldincludehavingdiversenetworksengagedwithprojectsin-flightevenifthey’renotthepartiesthatarefunded.Connecting“marketpull”and“technology/sciencepush”isimportanthereaswell.Forexample,successforOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment’s(OECD’s)demonstrationsisdependentonrapidlearningofhowtolowercostsandimproveperformancewhilemovingsolutionstofullscale.Itisimportanttohaveanagileandtransparentapproach,whichentailscommunicatingaboutinteriminformationontheobjectives,keynoncommercialdata,andindicatorsofsuccess.496.Supportingclusters,hubs,andtheopportunityformultipleamplifiers.DOEhassetthecoursewithHydrogenandCCUShubsasanapproachforfocusedtechnologydevelopmentanddeploymentandcultivatingnewmarkets.Clustersandhubsareatarget-richenvironmentforpursuingamplifiers,asthere’sareadymarkettopickupsolutions,anattentive/interestedaudiencetoprovideinputonneedsandhowtolowercosts.Agenciescanstimulateamplifiersatclustersandhubsbyintentionallycreatingnetworksthatengageonthechallengesandsolutions,beingtransparentandcommunicatinginterimresults,andnotshyingawayfrom“failures,”butrather,rapidlylearningfromthem.CONCLUSIONSANDRECOMMENDATIONSAmplifiersareapproachestoincreasetheleverage,impact,andspeedofinnovationbyengagingadiverseecosystemofinsightfulthinkerstofocusonaverychallengingsocietalorbusinessproblem.Ingenioussolutionsareneededtobringthecostsdownandperformanceupforlow-carbonsolutionsandtoinventtechnologiesthatclosethegaptonet-zeroGHGemissions.Therecentinvestmentsinthecleanenergyoptionsaregreat,butthepaceofGHGreductionsneedstogreatlyaccelerateandmoreleverageneedstobesqueezedfromthecurrentinvestments.Thisistheopportunityforamplifierstoyieldmorebangforthebuck.DOEandDODshould:1.Communicatetheopportunitiesforamplificationthroughoutagencies.2.Drivethepracticeofgoal-oriented,cross-functionalteamsdedicatedtoachievinggoals.3.Utilizenetworkswithdiversecapabilitiestocontributeuniqueandhelpfulperspectivesalignedwiththegoal-orientedareas.4.Applyintersectionallearning,nurtureinputs,andfosterabroadrangeofcollaboratorstospurcreativeinnovation.5.Betransparentandagile,andfosterrapidlearningandapplicationacrossteamsandnetworksDURINGprojects.6.Identifyareaswithspilloverpotentialandofcommonscience,engineering,andmarketchallenges.7.InvestinbasicRD&Dtosolvetheproblemsandapplysolutions.INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATIONJULY2023PAGE148.Trackthemagnitudeofamplificationeffectsandutilizetheinformationinfuturebudgetrequests.INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATIONJULY2023PAGE15AcknowledgmentsTheauthorthanksHannahBoylesforhelpwithformatting,references,andediting.ThanksaswelltoHoyuChongforscoutingthelevelofDOEinvestmentsincrosscuttingactivities.WilliamBonvillianprovidedseveralhelpfulconversationsandliteraturereferences,whichisalsogreatlyappreciated.AbouttheAuthorEdRightorisaconsultantfocusingondecarbonizationandsustainability.Hisworkinbothindustryandnon-profitprogramsfocusesonreducingenergyuse,greenhousegasemissions,andwaterandwasteimpactsinthemanufacturingsector.HeisthepreviousdirectorofITIF'sCenterforCleanEnergyInnovation.AboutITIFTheInformationTechnologyandInnovationFoundation(ITIF)isanindependent501(c)(3)nonprofit,nonpartisanresearchandeducationalinstitutethathasbeenrecognizedrepeatedlyastheworld’sleadingthinktankforscienceandtechnologypolicy.Itsmissionistoformulate,evaluate,andpromotepolicysolutionsthataccelerateinnovationandboostproductivitytospurgrowth,opportunity,andprogress.Formoreinformation,visititif.org/about.ENDNOTES1.U.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE),“EnergyEarthshotsInitiative,”DOE,accessedJune1,2023,https://www.energy.gov/policy/energy-earthshots-initiative.2.IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),“SixthAssessmentReportCycle,”IPCC,2021,https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/.3.“NetZeroFinancingRoadmap,”UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC),November2021,https://assets.bbhub.io/company/sites/63/2021/10/NZFRs-Key-Messages.pdf.4.HoyuChong,“FurtherEnergizingInnovation:AssessingtheFederalEnergyR&DBudgetforFY24andBeyond”(ITIF,2024),https://itif.org/events/2023/05/30/further-energizing-innovation-federal-energy-fy24/.5.“NetZeroby2050:ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySector,”InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),May2021,https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050.6.RobinGaster,RobertAtkinson,andEdwardRightor,“BeyondForce:ARealistPathwayThroughtheGreenTransition,”inreview,2023.7.DavidAdler,“InsideOperationWarpSpeed:ANewModelforIndustrialPolicy,AmericanAffairs,”AmericanAffairsJournal,2021,https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2021/05/inside-operation-warp-speed-a-new-model-for-industrial-policy/.8.mRNAstandsformessengerribonucleicacid(RNA),whichcarriesgeneticinformationusedtomakeaprotein.IntroductionofthemRNAallowscellstomakeasmallproteinpiecerepresentativeofavirus.Aspartofthetypicalimmuneresponse,thebodymakesantibodiestomarkanddestroythevirusprotein.Antibodiesremaintoprovideafuturedefensewhenpeopleencounterthevirus.9.“DARPAInnovationReport2016,”DefenseAdvancedResearchProjectsAgency(DARPA),July2016,https://www.darpa.mil/attachments/DARPA_Innovation_2016.pdf.INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATIONJULY2023PAGE1610.EnergyTechnologiesPerspectives,IEA,2020,https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2020.11.FransJohansson,TheMediciEffect:BreakthroughInsightsattheIntersectionofIdeas,ConceptsandCultures,HarvardBusinessSchool,2004.12.FransJohansson,“UncoveringNewPathstoInnovation:TheMediciEffect,”TTISIBlog,September19,2018,https://blog.ttisi.com/using-diversity-of-thought-to-create-meaningful-change-frans-johanssons-medici-effect.13.LeeS.Langston,"TheAdaptableGasTurbine"AmericanScientist(July2013)101(4):264.doi:10.1511/2013.103.26414.JohnGraci,“WhatYourMoonshotCanLearnfromtheApolloProgram,”HarvardBusinessReview,April4,2017,https://hbr.org/2017/04/what-your-moonshot-can-learn-from-the-apollo-program.15.DanGrossandBhavenSampat,“TheWorldWarIICrisisInnovationModel:WhatWasIt,andWhereDoesItApply?”(workingpaper,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch(NBER),June2022,)DOI10.3386/w27909.16.MattClancy,“ScienceasaMapofUnfamiliarTerrain,”NewThingsUndertheSun,September7,2021,https://www.newthingsunderthesun.com/pub/j8o78gfk/release/6.17.AdvancedResearchProjectsAgency-Energy(ARPA-E),“OurImpact,”ARPA-E,accessedJune1,2023,https://arpa-e.energy.gov/about/our-impact.18.FrankGannon,“Goal-orientedresearch,”EMBOReports.(December2003)4(12):1103.doi:10.1038/sj.embor.embor7400039.19.RichardJones,“Whosegoalsshoulddirectgoal-directedresearch?”SoftMachines,July7,2010,http://www.softmachines.org/wordpress/?p=878.20.FelixvanUrketal.,“Challenge-BasedResearchforaStrongerMoreSustainableEurope,”ECUIUniversity,2022,https://assets-global.website-files.com/562fb917aa38ca2e349b422e/62950553d7108b2c9295bd95_CBR%20paper.pdf.21.HeatherWhipps,“HowtheWealthyMediciFamilyChangedtheWorld,”LiveScience,May4,2008,https://www.livescience.com/4918-wealthy-medici-changed-world.html.22.WilliamB.Bonvillian(2022),“IndustrialInnovationPolicyintheUnitedStates,”AnnalsofScienceandTechnologyPolicy:Vol.6,No.4,315–411.DOI:10.1561/110.00000026.23.“NationalNetworkforManufacturingInnovation,”DepartmentofEnergy(DOE),accessedJune5,2023,https://www.energy.gov/eere/amo/national-network-manufacturing-innovation.24.GregSatell,“WeNeedtoAccelerateInnovation.Here’sHow:”Forbes,December18,2015,https://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsatell/2015/12/18/we-need-to-accelerate-innovation-heres-how/.25.JagjitSinghSraietal.,“DistributedManufacturing:scope,challenges,andopportunities,”InternationalJournalofProductionResearch(2016),54(23).6917–6935,https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2016.1192302.26.WilliamB.BonvillianandRichardVanAtta,“ARPA-EandARPA-E:ApplyingtheDARPAModeltoEnergyInnovation”(ITIFForum,February3,2012),https://www2.itif.org/2012-darpa-arpae-bonvillian-vanatta.pdf.27.WilliamBBonvillianandRichardVanAtta,“TheDARPAModelforTransformativeTechnologies:PerspectivesontheU.S.DefenseAdvancedResearchProjectsAgency,”Cambridge:OpenBookPublishers,2019,361–434,http://books.openedition.org/obp/12412.28.AnamRahman,“DARPA:ARoleModelforGovernmentInnovation,”ChallengeAdvisory,February2019,https://www.challenge.org/insights/darpa-a-role-model-for-government-innovation/.INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATIONJULY2023PAGE1729.JennyKudymowaandBruceTsai,“HowEffectivearePrizesatSpurringInnovation?”RethinkPriorities,2022,https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/how-effective-are-prizes-at-spurring-innovation.30.LucianoKay,“HowdoPrizesInduceInnovation?LearningfromtheGoogleLunarX-Prize,”Ph.D.Dissertation,GeorgiaInstituteofTechnology,2011,https://perma.cc/4V25-8N5Y.31.PeterDrucker,“InnovationandEntrepreneurship,”HarperandRow,1993.32.ElectrolyzersMarketbyTechnology…,”MarketsandMarketsReport,2023,https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/electrolyzers-market-23889518.html33.“HydrogenFuelCellGlobalMarketReport2022…,”BusinessWire,2022,https://ww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