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www.chinastock.com.cn 󲣸󱕋󱞭 󲤮󳌼󲤲󰢚󰊾󰐷󱎻󳈭󰧪󲣸󱷘󰑀󳎇󲩚󰍅

[table_research]

󲖃󰬨󱕋󱞭 ● 󱉬󲣵󰋧󱸴󰯇

2023 7󰐿10 󰌜

[table_main]

󰬨󰝘󰒶

󰎦󰥋󳒙

󰉶󱢍󰋧󲲥󳊶󰑖

󱉬󲣵󰋧󱸴󰯇

󰃟󲂇 󱰫󰀸󲣻󱯞

󰕯󲛹󰷰

 󰋧󱸴󰯇󲲝󰕳󰉭󳐷󰥹󰼽󰀾󰌜2023 󰾰󰋦󱂾󰕳

󰾃󲬖󳏆󰻺󰧰󲲝󰬮󰂙󲼆󱢍󱊜󰉿󲴽󲲣

󱄺󳈷󲼆󳗊󱐥󳎄󲲝󰬼󰑣󰑣󲲥󰕳󰉭

 󲴈󰑖󰉶󱢍󰏍󳘅󳗈󰉶󱢍󱯻󰀪󱝅󱰫󲵖

󰧀󲵑󲶊󰉶󱢍󰍵󲆎󰍵󰋧󱸴󰯇󰦴󲲝󰉶󱢍

󰋧󱸴󰯇󲲝󳈵󰑀󰑒󲴅󰒜󲲥󳯻󲼈󰑖

 󳈷󲼆󰑣󱐏󱑂󰤋󲴡󰾰󰋦󰾃󰤋󲴡󱄺󳈷󲼆󳟈󱰔

2023 󳈷󲼆󱐥󰔾 400 󲲽󱂾󰑀󰑒 40%+2023 󰾰󰋦󱄺󳈷

󲼆󱐥󰔾 180 󲲽󱰫󰀸 37%󲵖󰋧󱄽󰦴󲲝󱞸󱕫󲼄

 PHEV/󰂙󱉬󱣘󳲇󲜚󲼃󱝂󰹝󲎈󳌥󳗏PHEV 󰐷󰍦󲜚󱰤󱽡

󰹝󲎈󱰐󰤋󰍅󰍵󰄇󳊶󲫂󰍵󲆎󲜚󲖜󱸴󰹝󲎈󱎻󲚸󰣬󰀣

󰂙󱉬󲼄󰉶󱢍󰃟󲴒󱉬󰖠󲣵󱏿󰉰󲖃󱯙󰑖󲴈

 󱉬󰦗󳊶󱖥󱸴󱡣󰐩󱯶󳖻󲣘 2023 /󱄺󰋧󱸴

󰯇󲲝󳈷󲼆󰑀󰑒󲳵 850-900 󲲽/1400 󲲽󰤋+27.1%/34.7%

󱉬󰦗󲗼󰑱󲼆󲳵 382Gwh/746Gwh󰤋+29.6%/44.1%󰋧󱸴

󰢜󲲝󲶊CNESA 󳖻󰪂 2023-2027  CARG 󲴈49.4%

 󱉬󰦗󱏿󰒇󰋐󱠕󱎴󰸤2023 󳈹󰏫󲬃󲜝󳈹󲩻󰯇

󱰐󱩞󲖘󱰤󰫝󰭯󲳸󱜲2022 󱉬󰦗󲴅󰒜󰑖󰒇󰋐

󰫝󱞱󳌫󳖻󲣘󲤜󲫂󲴏󱰤󰊫󰤒󱂾󱶑󰀙󲫂󲖃󲵇󰭇󲴒

󰻖󰑖󰑦󱸴󰃞󰑣󰋰󳒙󱎻󰥫󲴈󱠕󰳷󰷿󱸴

󰐷󱎻󱃦󱾹󰤒󱂾󰰈󰐷󲼄󱂾󲴒󲖃󰩎󰾃󰑖

 󱶑󰹝󰋧󰑦󰋧󰑱󲵾1󳇗󱉬󲅴󲵖󰑀󰑒󲴅󰒜󲛻

󰝘󲼆󰍅󰍵󰑣󲲥󲲝󱂾󱉟2󱸴󲼆󰐫󳠏

󰐫󱾱󰐫󰒸󱼫󱎻󱉬󰦗󰍦󳈹󱉬󰦗󱎻󱯿󰒸󳖻󲣘󱉬󰦗

2030 󱕋󰌭󱄺󰑀󰑒 400 󱳅󱎻󲛻󰝘

 󲩻󲣥󲖃󳞣󰉿󰍅󰍵󰀜󰑀󲩟󲩻󰯇󳒗󳈵

󰃞󰑣󱸴󳏻󱕋󱎻󳳐󱰞󱰤󰀸󳖽

󰃟󲂇󰌭󱯣󳈹󱸴󱇕󰨧󰒜󰂮󱷘󱜈󰋰󱯪

󱦪󲩔󰾰󱆕󱜈󲳵󱢀󲣥󰨟󲲠󳠏󱜈󰡚󰌱󲳵󳮆󲳀󱸴󰯇󱄗󰪮

󰮍󲘌󱸴󲪇󰒇󰋐󱜈󱜈󱷘󰕳󰓎󱳅󱢀

 󳘅󳎠󰄇󱙱󰉶󱢍󳖻󰑖󱎻󳘅󳎠󱉬󲲝󳈷󲼆󱸴󲗼󰑱󳖻󰑖󱎻󳘅

󳎠󰭯󰒇󰋐󰫟󲳾󱎻󳘅󳎠󰋧󰑦󲴒󳖻󰑖󱎻󳘅󳎠󱢀

󲼄󰷰󱏿󳖻󰪂

󱷘󱚟󱔸

󱷘󱚟󱜧

EPS

󲩻󲣻󱯞

2022A

2023E

2024E

2022A

2023E

2024E

300750

󰌭

6.99

10.75

14.7

32.7

21.3

15.6

󰃟󲂇

300014

󱯣󳈹󱸴

1.72

3.05

4.46

34.6

19.5

13.3

󰃟󲂇

603659

󱇕󰨧󰒜

1.54

2.04

2.66

25.4

19.2

14.7

󰃟󲂇

002812

󰂮󱷘

4.09

5.71

7.49

23.1

16.5

12.6

󰃟󲂇

󲩻󰋐󰒜󰯇

wind

󳈭󰧪󲣸󱕋󱞭󳎙󱷘󲵀󱉟

2023



󰐿

󰌜󰉭󱐏

󳛍󰓇

󰹭

86108092 7636

zhouran@chinastock.com.cn

󰓇󱎲󲣧󱱍󱔸S0130514020001

󱉬󲣵󰋧󱸴󰯇󰀾󰊧󲖟󱃧

-15%

-10%

-5%

10%

15%

23/1 23/2 23/3 23/4 23/5 23/6 23/7

电力及新能源设备

沪深300

󲩻󰋐󰒜󰯇

wind

󳈭󰧪󲣸󱕋󱞭󳎙

󱐯󱕋󱞭

󳈭󰧪󱉬󰋧󰹭󳍖󲖃󰷰󲣻

󱉬󰦗

󲖃

󰑣󳒙󳒙󱑂󲖃

_230615

󳈭󰧪󱉬󰋧󰹭󳍖󲖃󰬨

󱉬󰋧

󲖃

2022



&23

󱰠󱰊󲸟

󱃧󰒸󰨧󰒜

_230510

󳈭󰧪󱉬󰋧󰹭󱉬󰋧󲖃

󱉬󰦗󰬨



󱳛󳏻󲵇󳮶󳈹󱉬󱯿󰑦󰋧󰒇󰋐

󲵖

_230330

󳈭󰧪󱉬󰋧󰹭󳍖󲖃󰷰󲣻

󱉬󰋧󲖃

󰒶󲸟󱑂󲩻󰑱

_230327

󲖃󱕋󱞭/󱉬󲣵󰋧󱸴󰯇󲖃

󲤮󳌼󲤲󰢚󰊾󰐷󱎻󳈭󰧪󲣸󱷘󰑀󳎇󲩚󰍅

󱐥 

󳈹󱉬󰦗󱞱󳌫󳊶󰑖 .......................................................................................................................................... 2

󰋧󱸴󰯇󲲝󰕳󰉭󳐷󰥹󰼽󰀾󰌜 ............................................................................................................ 2

󳈷󲼆󰑣󱐏󱑂󰤋󲴡󰾰󰋦 ................................................................................................................................ 5

PHEV/󰂙󱉬󱣘󳲇󲜚󲼃󱝂󰹝󲎈󳌥󳗏 ........................................................................................................ 9

󱉬󰦗󳊶󱖥󱸴󱡣󰐩󱯶 ...................................................................................................... 16

󱉬󰦗󱏿󰒇󰋐󱠕󱎴󰸤 .......................................................................................................................... 22

󱶑󰹝󰋧󰑦󲫂 ................................................................................................................................................ 26

󳇗󱉬󲅴󲵖 .................................................................................................................................................. 26

󱉬󰦗󳈹󱉬󱯿 .................................................................................................................................. 31

󱰳󲴧󲩻󲣥 ........................................................................................................................................................ 43

󰃟󲂇󰔾󱎻 .................................................................................................................................................................... 45

󰌭.................................................................................................................................................................. 45

󱯣󳈹󱸴.................................................................................................................................................................. 46

󱇕󰨧󰒜 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 47

󰂮󱷘.................................................................................................................................................................. 48

󳘅󳎠󰄇󱙱 .................................................................................................................................................................... 49

󳍻 ............................................................................................................................................................................ 50

󲖃󱕋󱞭/󱉬󲣵󰋧󱸴󰯇󲖃

󲤮󳌼󲤲󰢚󰊾󰐷󱎻󳈭󰧪󲣸󱷘󰑀󳎇󲩚󰍅

󳈹󱉬󰦗󱞱󳌫󳊶󰑖

󰋧󱸴󰯇󲲝󰕳󰉭󳐷󰥹󰼽󰀾󰌜

2023 󰾰󰋦󱂾󰕳1󰐿6󰌜󰾰󰋦󲤺󰌎 Model 3Model Y 

󲲝󰡵󰕳Model 3 󳎄 2-3.6 󳎄 5.7%-13.5%Model Y 󳎄 2.9 -4.8

󳎄 9.6%-13.4%󰢛󰡘󲤺󰊫󰍦󱰞 2022 10 󰐿󱎻󰡘󲲝󱨲󳎄󳎄

󰐷󳎄󰕳󰋧

1󰾰󰋦󰕳

2020.10 2021.09.11 2022.3.10 2022.10.24 2023.05.2

Model3

后轮驱动

Model3

高性能版

ModelY

后轮驱动

ModelY

长续航版

ModelY

高性能版

2023

年

月

日特斯拉降价

󲩻󰋐󰒜󰯇󰾰󰋦󱲈󳈭󰧪󲣸󱕋󱞭󳎙

󰾰󰋦󰪮󰢜󳎄2023 1󰐿6󰌜󰌜󰑣󳔠󰳪󰢜󲤺

󰕳󱳅󰡞󰩩󳎄󰁡󳎄󰐷󳠏󲳵 23.1%󳈷󲼆

󲛸󰋈

󲖟1󰾰󰋦󰪮󰕳󲤺󰊫

󰌭󳌫

󰕳󳎄

󰌜󰑣

2023.01.06

9.7%-10.0%

󳔠

2023.01.06

8.5%-12.1%

󰳪

2023.01.06

1.9%-3.9%

󱳅

2023.01.13

6.4%-19.7%



2023.01.13

0.8%-16.9%

󰁡

2023.01.13

1.9%-23.1%

󰨌

2023.01.13

6.0%-16.9%

󰀶

2023.01.13

8.5%-17.7%

󲀨

2023.01.13

5.7%-13.5%

󲩻󰋐󰒜󰯇󰾰󰋦󱲈󳈭󰧪󲣸󱕋󱞭󳎙

󰂙󲼆󱢍󱊜󰉿󲴽󲲣󱄺󳈷󲼆󳗊2023 1󰐿󲩙󱉬󲤔󳑩󳎄

󰋧󲣙󰍦󱉖󲵖󱎻 2󱼡 2022 10 󰐿󲖃󳎄󱢍󱊜󰒜󰾰󰋦󱄺󳈷󲼆󱾹

󱾹󰈷22Q4/23Q1/23Q2 󱄺󳈷 405,278 󲲽/422,875 󲲽/466,140 󲲽   󰤋 󳊶

31%/36%/83% 23Q2 󳈷󲼆󰋧󳠏

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