全球太阳能发电市场展望2023_2027（英文版）--GSCVIP专享VIP免费

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Global Market

Outlook

For Solar Power

2023 - 2027

Supported by:

www.solarpowereurope.org

FOCUS ON SOUTHEAST ASIA

Steel

protected by

With its unique composition and

excellent protective performance,

Magnelis® is the leading

galvanised steel for long-lasting

solar mounting structures.

For racks, purlins or tubes, Magnelis®

steel (ZM310) oers an expected

lifetime of more than 30 years in C3

environments. This performance has

been certiﬁed by several independent

bodies.

For posts and columns, Magnelis® steel

(ZM620) can be used for foundations in

soil or concrete with a guarantee up to

25 years based upon a local soil analysis.

As a key product for reducing climate

impact for energy transition, Magnelis®

is available with XCarb® recycled and

renewably produced and leads to circa 70%

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Foreword

Welcome to the Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2023-2027.

Solar is on the fast track. In 2022, the world installed 239 GW of new solar, finally surpassing the TW-scale. That’s

45% more solar power capacity than the year before. The positive market developments in the first months of

2023 promise another solar boom year, expected to result in 341 GW of newly-added solar to the grid, by the

end of the year – equal to 43% growth.

This solar rush comes after more modest progress in preceding years, which were characterised by pandemic

triggered lockdowns, supply chain turbulence, and high product prices along the value chain. However, even in

trickier times, the solar industry demonstrated very strong resilience, with newly installed global capacities

increasing by 19% in 2020 and 18% in 2021.

The reasons for this spectacular performance are obvious. It comes down to the unmatched versatility of solar

– powering individual energy self-sufficiency and comparatively quick-deploying utility-scale projects at

competitive low cost. Despite solar’s levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) sliding upwards – for the first time –

due to supply chain issues and inflation, it remains profoundly cheaper to produce electricity from solar than

from new fossil fuel and nuclear power sources.

What changed for solar power in 2022 – and why we consider the year an inflection point – is the technology’s

newly discovered image by a growing number of policymakers. Solar power now enjoys widespread acceptance

as the key tool to achieve local energy security in the midterm. During the recent fossil fuel sparked energy

crisis, the International Energy Agency (IEA) used two reports to highlight solar’s critical role to reduce the

European Union’s dependence on Russian gas. The EU Solar Strategy of May 2022 even called solar the ‘kingpin’

of the continent’s effort to get off Russian gas. Such geostrategic considerations are applicable for other energy

importing countries as well. In other words, solar has now untangled what was previously considered a gordian

knot – the so-called energy trilemma of sustainability, affordability, and security of supply.

The annual Global Market Outlook for Solar Power is a project that comes to life with the support and in-depth

knowledge of the world’s major regional and local solar industry associations. These organisations are working

hard to improve the policy frameworks that are essential for solar power to thrive around the world. From these

organisations, this report contains in-depth features on the 26 countries that added at least 1 GW of solar in

2022. There are nine more GW-scale solar markets in 2022, compared to the 17 in 2021. The number of the

world’s serious solar markets will more than double to over 50 by 2025.

This edition has both a regional and a topical focus – this time on Southeast Asia and PPAs in emerging markets.

The idea was to highlight advances and challenges in countries that are often not on the global solar map. These

features have been created in cooperation between SolarPower Europe, the Global Solar Council (GSC), through

its member, the Asian Photovoltaic Industry Association (APVIA), and GET.invest.

With global supply chain issues largely overcome, and gigantic PV production capacities being built up, prices have

dropped significantly across the value chain in recent months and are expected to dip below pre-pandemic levels

soon. That will propel demand to the next level. In general, we are more confident than ever that solar will remain

on the fast track in the years to come. How fast will depend on the regulatory environment needed to enable that

growth – from simpler permitting and stronger grid capacities, to supported solar-storage hybrid solutions. Our

2023 High Scenario foresees 402 GW new solar this year and close to 800 GW in 2027. Having achieved over 1 TW

of total solar capacity in 2022, we now see the potential for an annual TW-scale market by 2030.

Enjoy reading our Global Market Outlook.

WALBURGA

HEMETSBERGER

CEO, SolarPower

Europe

MICHAEL SCHMELA

Executive Advisor

and Director of

Market Intelligence,

SolarPower Europe

THERESA CRUZCAPELLAN

Secretary-General, Asia PV

Industry Association (APVIA)

& Member of the Global

Solar Council

/148

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GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027Supportedby:www.solarpowereurope.orgFOCUSONSOUTHEASTASIASteelprotectedbyWithitsuniquecompositionandexcellentprotectiveperformance,Magnelis®istheleadinggalvanisedsteelforlong-lastingsolarmountingstructures.Forracks,purlinsortubes,Magnelis®steel(ZM310)offersanexpectedlifetimeofmorethan30yearsinC3environments.Thisperformancehasbeencertiﬁedbyseveralindependentbodies.Forpostsandcolumns,Magnelis®steel(ZM620)canbeusedforfoundationsinsoilorconcretewithaguaranteeupto25yearsbaseduponalocalsoilanalysis.Asakeyproductforreducingclimateimpactforenergytransition,Magnelis®isavailablewithXCarb®recycledandrenewablyproducedandleadstocirca70%CO2footprintreduction.AsyourinvestmentdeservesalonglifeThemountingsystemofthissolarﬁeldhasbeendesignedinMagnelis®andmanufacturedbyCWF.industry.arcelormittal.com/magnelis©KristofPoggel/CWFGmbH3ForewordWelcometotheGlobalMarketOutlookforSolarPower2023-2027.Solarisonthefasttrack.In2022,theworldinstalled239GWofnewsolar,finallysurpassingtheTW-scale.That’s45%moresolarpowercapacitythantheyearbefore.Thepositivemarketdevelopmentsinthefirstmonthsof2023promiseanothersolarboomyear,expectedtoresultin341GWofnewly-addedsolartothegrid,bytheendoftheyear–equalto43%growth.Thissolarrushcomesaftermoremodestprogressinprecedingyears,whichwerecharacterisedbypandemictriggeredlockdowns,supplychainturbulence,andhighproductpricesalongthevaluechain.However,evenintrickiertimes,thesolarindustrydemonstratedverystrongresilience,withnewlyinstalledglobalcapacitiesincreasingby19%in2020and18%in2021.Thereasonsforthisspectacularperformanceareobvious.Itcomesdowntotheunmatchedversatilityofsolar–poweringindividualenergyself-sufficiencyandcomparativelyquick-deployingutility-scaleprojectsatcompetitivelowcost.Despitesolar’slevelisedcostofelectricity(LCOE)slidingupwards–forthefirsttime–duetosupplychainissuesandinflation,itremainsprofoundlycheapertoproduceelectricityfromsolarthanfromnewfossilfuelandnuclearpowersources.Whatchangedforsolarpowerin2022–andwhyweconsidertheyearaninflectionpoint–isthetechnology’snewlydiscoveredimagebyagrowingnumberofpolicymakers.Solarpowernowenjoyswidespreadacceptanceasthekeytooltoachievelocalenergysecurityinthemidterm.Duringtherecentfossilfuelsparkedenergycrisis,theInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)usedtworeportstohighlightsolar’scriticalroletoreducetheEuropeanUnion’sdependenceonRussiangas.TheEUSolarStrategyofMay2022evencalledsolarthe‘kingpin’ofthecontinent’sefforttogetoffRussiangas.Suchgeostrategicconsiderationsareapplicableforotherenergyimportingcountriesaswell.Inotherwords,solarhasnowuntangledwhatwaspreviouslyconsideredagordianknot–theso-calledenergytrilemmaofsustainability,affordability,andsecurityofsupply.TheannualGlobalMarketOutlookforSolarPowerisaprojectthatcomestolifewiththesupportandin-depthknowledgeoftheworld’smajorregionalandlocalsolarindustryassociations.Theseorganisationsareworkinghardtoimprovethepolicyframeworksthatareessentialforsolarpowertothrivearoundtheworld.Fromtheseorganisations,thisreportcontainsin-depthfeaturesonthe26countriesthataddedatleast1GWofsolarin2022.ThereareninemoreGW-scalesolarmarketsin2022,comparedtothe17in2021.Thenumberoftheworld’sserioussolarmarketswillmorethandoubletoover50by2025.Thiseditionhasbotharegionalandatopicalfocus–thistimeonSoutheastAsiaandPPAsinemergingmarkets.Theideawastohighlightadvancesandchallengesincountriesthatareoftennotontheglobalsolarmap.ThesefeatureshavebeencreatedincooperationbetweenSolarPowerEurope,theGlobalSolarCouncil(GSC),throughitsmember,theAsianPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation(APVIA),andGET.invest.Withglobalsupplychainissueslargelyovercome,andgiganticPVproductioncapacitiesbeingbuiltup,priceshavedroppedsignificantlyacrossthevaluechaininrecentmonthsandareexpectedtodipbelowpre-pandemiclevelssoon.Thatwillpropeldemandtothenextlevel.Ingeneral,wearemoreconfidentthaneverthatsolarwillremainonthefasttrackintheyearstocome.Howfastwilldependontheregulatoryenvironmentneededtoenablethatgrowth–fromsimplerpermittingandstrongergridcapacities,tosupportedsolar-storagehybridsolutions.Our2023HighScenarioforesees402GWnewsolarthisyearandcloseto800GWin2027.Havingachievedover1TWoftotalsolarcapacityin2022,wenowseethepotentialforanannualTW-scalemarketby2030.EnjoyreadingourGlobalMarketOutlook.WALBURGAHEMETSBERGERCEO,SolarPowerEuropeMICHAELSCHMELAExecutiveAdvisorandDirectorofMarketIntelligence,SolarPowerEuropeTHERESACRUZ-CAPELLANSecretary-General,AsiaPVIndustryAssociation(APVIA)&MemberoftheGlobalSolarCouncilGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-20274ProjectLead:MichaelSchmela,SolarPowerEurope.Projectmanager:RaffaeleRossi,SolarPowerEurope.Marketintelligenceandinternalco-authors:MichaelSchmela,RaffaeleRossi,ChristopheLits,JonathanGorremans&AntonioArruebo,SolarPowerEurope.Externalco-authors::AsianPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation(APVIA);SteveBlume,SmartEnergyCouncil(SEC);LisaGrün,BundesverbandPhotovoltaicAustria(PVAustria);RodrigoLopesSauaia&RafaelFranciscoMarques,BrazilianPhotovoltaicSolarEnergyAssociation(ABSOLAR);DavidRau,ChileanSolarAssociation(ACESOL);ChinaPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation(CPIA);ThomasAarestrupJepsen,GreenPowerDenmark;FlemmingKristensen,DanishPVAssociation;MarieBuchet,SyndicatdesEnergiesRenouvelables(SER);AlexanderRohlf&ChristianMenke,BundesverbandSolarwirtschaft(BSW-Solar);SteliosPsomas,HellenicAssociationofPhotovoltaicCompanies(HELAPCO);ÁdámSzolnoki,HungarianPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation(MANAP);SubrahmanyamPulipaka,ShubhangParekh&AnimishaVerma,NationalSolarEnergyFederationofIndia(NSEFI);EitanParnass,GreenEnergyAssociationofIsrael(GEA-IL);MichelangeloLafronza,ANIERinnovabili;AlessandroScipioni&EdoardoStorti,ElettricitàFutura;FedericoBrucciani,ItaliaSolare;TakeakiMasukawa,JapanPhotovoltaicEnergyAssociation(JPEA);CarlaMedinaPerezgomez,MexicanAssociationofSolarEnergy(Asolmex);WijnandvanHooff,NoldJaeger&MarintheBos,HollandSolar;FaheemAshraf,WaqasMoosa&FaisalJamal,PakistanSolarAssociation(PSA);PaulinaWojciechowska,PolskieStowarzyszenieFotowoltaiki(PSF)&StanislawM.Pietruszko,PolskieTowarzystwoFotowoltaiki(PVPoland);DeWetTaljaard,SouthAfricanPVIndustryAssociation(SAPVIA);Woo-SikJung,KoreaPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation(KOPIA);JoséDonoso,UniónEspañolaFotovoltaica(UNEF);DavidStickelberger,Swissolar;ShuYuYang,Industry,ScienceandTechnologyInternationalStrategyCenter(ISTI)&IndustrialTechnicalResearchInstitute(ITRI)&DanielLee,TaiwanPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation(TPVIA);TurkishSolarEnergyAssociation(GÜNDER);GarethSimkins,SolarEnergyUK;SolarEnergyIndustriesAssociation(SEIA).Externalcontributors:CADER(AR),APSTE(BG),CanREA(CA),OIE(HR),SolárníAsociace(CZ),ISEA(IE),KREA(KE),LSEA(LT),ILR(LU),MPIA(MY),REIAoN(NA),Solenergiklyngen(NO),APREN(PT),RPIA(RO),SERIS(SG),SAPI(SK),ZSFV(SI),SvenskSolenergi(SE),EVNPECC3(VN).Textediting:BethanyMeban,ThérèseODonoghue,&LilyMurdoch,SolarPowerEurope.Supportedby:IntersolarEurope,GlobalSolarCouncil(GSC).Pleaseciteas:SolarPowerEurope(2023):GlobalMarketOutlookforSolarPower2023-2027.Formediauseandqueries:BethanyMeban,SolarPowerEurope,b.meban@solarpoweurope.org.Dateofpublication:June2023.ISBN:9789464669046.Thankstooursponsermembers:Design:OnehemisphereAB,Sweden.contact@onehemisphere.seFrontcoverimage:©RakchaiDuangdee/Shutterstock.comContact:info@solarpowereurope.org.Methodology:SolarPowerEurope’sfive-yearforecastconsistsofLow,MediumandHighScenarios.TheMediumscenarioanticipatesthemostlikelydevelopmentgiventhecurrentstateofplayofthemarket.TheLowScenarioforecastisbasedontheassumptionthatpolicymakershaltsolarsupportandotherissuesarise,includinginterestratehikesandseverefinancialcrisissituations.Conversely,theHighScenarioforecaststhebestoptimalcaseinwhichpolicysupport,financialconditionsandotherfactorsareenhanced.Segmentationisbasedonthefollowingsystemsize:Residential(<10kW);Commercial(<250kW);Industrial(<1000kW);Utility-scale(>1000kW,ground-mounted).SolarPowerEurope’smethodologyincludesonlygrid-connectedsystems.InstalledcapacityisalwaysexpressedinDC,unlessotherwisestated.AllfiguresarebasedonSolarPowerEurope’sbestknowledgeatthetimeofpublication.Disclaimer:ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbySolarPowerEurope.Itisbeingfurnishedtotherecipientsforgeneralinformationonly.Nothinginitshouldbeinterpretedasanofferorrecommendationofanyproducts,servicesorfinancialproducts.Thisreportdoesnotconstitutetechnical,investment,legal,taxoranyotheradvice.Recipientsshouldconsultwiththeirowntechnical,financial,legal,taxorotheradvisorsasneeded.Thisreportisbasedonsourcesbelievedtobeaccurate.However,SolarPowerEuropedoesnotwarranttheaccuracyorcompletenessofanyinformationcontainedinthisreport.SolarPowerEuropeassumesnoobligationtoupdateanyinformationcontainedherein.SolarPowerEuropewillnotbeheldliableforanydirectorindirectdamageincurredbytheuseoftheinformationprovidedandwillnotprovideanyindemnities.Unlessotherwisestated,thecopyrightandotherintellectualpropertyrightsofmarketintelligencedataandresourcesprovidedareownedbySolarPowerEurope.TableofcontentsForeword3Executivesummary61Globalsolarmarket8Update2000-202213Prospects2023-202726Segments2023-202737Conclusions392Focus:TheSoutheastAsianSolarMarket–byGSC423CorporatePPAsinemergingmarkets–SupportedbyGET.invest534GW-scalemarkets69Investment-gradeSolarDataandIntelligenceResearchbacked.IndustryProven.IntegrationReady.Relyonaccurateandvalidatedsolarresourcedataandintelligencetoengineer,昀nanceandmaximizereturnsfromyoursolarassets.Visitwww.solaranywhere.comtolearnhowyoucanleveragethepowerofSolarAnywhere®tooptimizeyoursolarassets.SolarAssetOperations&ManagementSolarProjectDevelopmentEnergyMarketParticipationReal-time,weather-adjustedPVproductionestimatesarecriticalforoptimizingsolarassetperformance.O&Mteamscanstreamlinetheirprocessesandreducecostsbyintegratingtheseinputsintotheirapplicationsusinganenterprise-classsolarAPI,whichfeatures:Takeadvantageofthereliability,accessibilityandaccuracyofferedbytheSolarAnywhereAPI.Getstartedat:www.solaranywhere.com/apiAchieveoperationalexcellencewithanenterprise-classsolarAPI•Highly-accurate,globallyavailablehistorical,real-timeandforecastdata•Rich,solar-speci昀cdataelementssuchasirradiance,albedo,snowdepth,particulate-matterdata,andmore•Abilitytoconductsite-speci昀cenergysimulationsusingopen-sourcemodelssuchaspvlib•Fully-documented,stable,modernAPIarchitecturethatisproventomeetrigorousenterpriserequirementsGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-20276Executivesummary2022willberememberedastheyearwhensolardeployment,drivenbysoaringenergyprices,supplychainstabilisation,andpost-pandemicrecoveryprograms,enteredanewgrowthdimension.In2022theworldconnected239GWofnewsolarcapacitytothegrid,markingyetanotherall-timerecordandregisteringanimpressive45%annualgrowthrate,thehighestsince2016.Asaconsequence,totalglobalinstalledsolarcapacitycrossedtheTerawattthresholdinearly2022andamountedtoalmost1.2TWbytheendoftheyear,witha25%increasecomparedto2021levels.Solar’sexpansionhasnomatchacrossotherpowergenerationtechnologies.SolarPVclaimedtwo-thirdsofallnewrenewablepowercapacityinstalledlastyear,andthehighestgrowthrateintermsofelectricitygenerationacrossanypowergenerationtechnology(24%).Atthesametime,however,solarstillonlymeets4.5%ofglobalelectricitydemand,whileover70%isprovidedbynon-renewablesources.In2022,significantsupplychaindisturbances,lingeringCOVID-19effects,andinflationarypressure,sparkedbythewarinUkraine,causedthefirstincreaseinsolar’slevelisedcostofelectricity(LCOE)inoveradecade.That,however,doesnotposeachallengetocostcompetitiveness;solarPVremainssignificantlycheaperthannewfossilfuelsandnuclear,andproductpricesalreadybegantodeclineinrecentmonthsandarelargelyexpectedtoreturntopre-crisislevelssoon.Recordinstallationsin2022weredrivenbyaremarkableperformanceinChina,theundisputedworld-leadingsolarmarket,withalmost100GWaddedinasingleyearandahuge72%annualgrowthrate.TheUSexperiencedaturbulentyearin2022,butkeptitsspotasthesecondlargestmarketdespitea6%annualdecreaseto21.9GW,whileIndia’sreboundcontinuedin2022,with17.4GWofnewinstalledcapacityanda23%growth.Closingthe2022top5countries,Brazildoubleditsinstallationratewith10.9GW,whileSpainbecamethelargestEuropeanmarketwith8.4GW.Attheregionallevel,China’sdominanceincreasedtheAsia-Pacificshareto60%,whileEuroperemainedstableat19%andtheAmericasdeclinedto17%.Intermsofinstalledsolarcapacitypercapita,Australiaremainsintheleadwithalmost1.2kW/capita,whiletheNetherlandsalsocrossedthekW/capitathreshold,comparedtoaglobalaverageofanestimated144W/capita.Allsolaranalystsareconfidentthat,followinganexceptional2022,thereisnoquestionthatstronggrowthwillcontinuein2023–thequestionisratherhowmuch.OurMediumScenarioanticipatesthat341GWofnewsolarcapacitywillbeinstalledworldwidein2023,equivalenttoa43%growththatbasicallyrepeatstheextraordinaryperformanceof2022.Withimprovedmarketconditions,however,installationscouldgoabove400GWalreadyin2023.Solardeploymentisexpectedtocontinueinthefollowingfouryears,with401GWaddedin2024anda617GWmarketreachedin2027.Thiswillbringtotaloperatingcapacitiesabove2TWinearly2025and3.5TWbytheendof2027.Thestrongexpansionof2022deliveredarecordnumberoflargely‘developed’solarmarkets.ThenumberofGW-scalesolarmarkets–countriesinstallingatleast1GW–jumpedfrom17in2021to26in2022.Weforecast32GW-scalemarketsin2023,39in2024,andatleast53in2025.Thisyear’sregionalfocusisonSoutheastAsia.WiththesupportoftheGlobalSolarCouncil(GSC),wehaveprovidedanin-depthanalysisofPVdeploymentintheregion,whichholdssignificantsolarpotential.Weexpecttheregionalmarkettogrowto3.8GWthisyear,up13%from2022,andexpandto13.3GWby2027underaMediumScenario.AnotherfeatureisoncorporatePPAsinemergingcountries,examiningthedriversandchallengescorporatesfaceinSub-SaharanAfricaandSouth-EastAsia.ThereareafewpromisinginitiativesforcorporatesolarPPAs,butinmostcountriespolicyframeworksneedtobeestablishedtotapthegiganticpotentialofbilateralsolarpowerpurchaseagreements.JANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECkWh/m²AverageIndividualyearsSOLARGISEVALUATEAnalyzethe昀nancialperformanceofyoursolarprojectTimeSeriesdataTypicalMeteorologicalYearSolargisTimeSeriesdata,bydefaultcomingin15-or10-minuteresolution,areusefulforanalyzingyear-to-yearvariability,seasonalorintradaypro昀les,andcalculatingenergyestimatesforP50,P90,orotherprobabilisticscenarios.OurTypicalMeteorologicalYear(TMY)dataaregeneratedfrommulti-yeartimeseriesdataandcancomeinP50,P90,orotherprobabilisticscenarios.TheyarefullycompatiblewithcommonlyusedPVsimulationsoftware.solargis.com/evaluateLowestuncertaintySolargishavebeenrecognizedbynumerousindependentvalidationstudiesastheleadingreliablesourceformodeledsolarandmeteorologicaldata.Thiswillmakeyouatrustedpartner.1-minutedataHigh-frequencydatabasedonourstochasticmodelsimprovetherepresentationofextremeweathersituationsandenergymodelingaccuracy,especiallywhenmodelinginverterclippinglosses,self-consumption,andnearshadinglosses.GlobalcoverageAlonghistoricalarchiveofsolarradiationdata(since1994forsomeregions)isavailableforlocationsbetween65Nand55Slatitudes.TheSolargisdatabasehasbeenvalidatedat230+publiclocationsglobally.Allsolarenergy-affectingparametersBesidessolarradiation,Solargisdatasetsalsoincludeparameterssuchasalbedo,temperature,wind,humidity,precipitationandmanymoretoobtainareliableestimateofalllossesinvolvedintheenergycalculationchain.SolargisEvaluatecompressesmorethan20yearsofexperienceandknowledgeintoasolutionthatwillhelpyou昀ndthebestcost/bene昀tsolution,optimizeyourtechnicaldesignsetups,andmitigatepotentialrisksofyoursolarproject.GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-20278Globalsolarmarket150MWHybridplant,ElAndévalo,Spain.©Iberdrola10IEA(2020):WorldEnergyOutlook2020.Solarpowercontinuedtodominatethenewlyaddedglobalpowergenerationcapacityin2022,claimingyetanotheryearatthetopspotamongrenewableenergysources.Outof362GWofnewrenewable(RES)capacityaddedlastyear,solarPVaccountedfor66%,connecting239GWtothegrid(seeFig.1).Solar’sshareofnewrenewablecapacityincreasedsubstantiallyfromthe56%contributedin2021.Thishighlightsthegrowingprominenceofsolarintheglobalenergytransition,installingabouttwotimesthecapacitythanallotherrenewabletechnologiescombined.FIGURE1NETRENEWABLEPOWERGENERATINGCAPACITYINSTALLEDIN2022OtherRE:8GW;2%Hydro:30GW;8%Biomass:8GW;2%2022Wind:78GW;22%Solar:239GW;66%362GWSOURCES:GWEC(2023),IRENA(2023).©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-20279Theoveralltrendforrenewablecapacityadditionshasbeenconsistentlyupwardinrecentyears,pushedbytheglobalenergycrisisandpolicysupport.Totalrenewablecapacityadditionsare56GWhigherthanlastyear,an18%increasefrom306GWin2021.ThesurgeofsolarPVin2022hasmorethancoveredthedecreaseinwindannualinstallations,droppingfrom95.3GWin2020,to93.6in2021,downto77.6GWin2022.However,itisimportanttokeepthesepositivedevelopmentsinperspective.Solarpowerstillcontributesaminorshareoftotalelectricitydemand,accountingforonly4.5%ofglobalpowerproductionin2022,increasingfrom3.7%inthepreviousyear(seeFig.2).Thoughstillrelativelysmall,weobserveacleargrowthacceleration–solar’sshareincreasedby0.8percentagepointsor22%in2022,comparedto0.5percentagepointsor16%in2021.Thisismuchfasterthanthegrowthofotherrenewablesources,whichcollectivelyprovidedaround25.4%oftheworld’spowergeneration,representingabout3%growthfromthe24.6%sharein2021.Non-renewablesourcesmaintainedtheirdominantpositionwitha70.1%share.Nevertheless,theirsharedecreasedby1.6percentagepointsin2022,andisatanall-timelow.FIGURE2SOLARANDRENEWABLEPOWERASASHAREOFGLOBALPOWER2017-20220102030405060708090100%202220172018201920202021OtherREpowerNon-REpowerSolarpower75.1%74.5%73.4%71.5%71.6%70.1%1.8%23.3%23.9%25.2%24.6%25.4%23.1%2.2%2.7%3.2%3.7%4.5%SOURCE:Ember(2023).©SOLARPOWEREUROPE20231Globalsolarmarket/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027103).Windisthesecondfastestgrowingtechnologywhenitcomestoglobalpowergeneration,witha16%growthrate.Inthemeantime,electricitygeneratedbycoal,thedirtiestsourceofpowergeneration,grewby1%,whilegas-poweredelectricitymarginallydeclined,andnuclearelectricitydecreasedby5%.Theimmensemarketpotentialofsolaranditscostleadershipindicatethatitwillcontinuetocapturealargersharethananyotherpowergenerationtechnologyandfurtherleadtheglobalenergytransition.Asthespearheadofthemovementtorenewables,solargenerated1,289TWhin2022,up24%fromthe1,040TWhitgeneratedin2021(seeFig.FIGURE3ELECTRICITYGENERATIONGROWTHRATEFROM2021TO2022,BYTECHNOLOGYNuclearGasBioenergyCoalHydroOtherrenewablesOtherfossilWindSolar%0-551015202524%16%12%5%2%1%1%-0.3%-5%SOURCE:Ember(2023).©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202711Solar’sexceptionalsuccesscanbeattributedtovariousfactors,butakeydriverisitssignificantcostreductionoverthepastdecade,propellingittobecomethegloballeaderintermsofcostcompetitiveness(Fig.4).However,thepasttwoyearshavewitnessedsignificantdisruptionsinglobalsupplychains,causingsignificantpriceincreases.LingeringeffectsfromtheCOVID-19pandemicandthelastlockdowninShanghaiin2022haveledtoincreasedshippingcosts,whilethewarinUkrainehassparkedinflationarypressureworldwide.Specificallyinthesolarindustry,thepriceofpolysiliconhadbeenonanupwardtrajectoryforthepasttwoyears,peakingataround38USD/kginDecember2022,comparedtojustbelow10USD/kginearly2021,accordingtoBloombergBNEF,whileotherproductpricesalongthevaluechainsoaredaswell.AllthishasresultedinthefirstincreaseinsolarPV’sLevelisedCostofElectricity(LCOE)afteradecadeofuninterrupteddecline,risingfrom36USD/MWhin2021to60USD/MWhin2023,thesharpestincreaseamongallpowertechnologies.1Despitethisincrease,solarpowerremainedsignificantlycheaperthananyfossilfuelsandnuclear,consideringtheoverallriseintechnologyprices.Whilesolarpowerhadbecomecheaperthanwindpowerin2021,therelationshiphasreversedin2023.However,withthesignificantincreaseinproductioncapacityandtheimprovementofglobalsupplychains,pricesforsolarproductshavedecreasedconsiderablyalongthevaluechain,fromsilicontomodulesinrecentmonths–andareanticipatedtoreachpre-crisislevelsthisyear.FIGURE4SOLARELECTRICITYGENERATIONCOSTINCOMPARISONWITHOTHERPOWERSOURCES2009-2023050100150200250300USD/MWh60507011718020092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212023CCGTSolarWindCoalNuclearSOURCE:Lazard(2023).HistoricalmeanunsubsidisedLCOEvalues(nominalterms,post-tax).©SOLARPOWEREUROPE20232Lazard(2023):2023LevelisedCostofEnergy.Availableathttps://www.lazard.com/research-insights/2023-levelized-cost-of-energyplus/1Globalsolarmarket-Update2000-2022GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202712Regardlessoftherecentsolarpowerpriceincrease,utility-scalesolarpowerremainsmoreaffordablethannewlyestablishedconventionalpowergenerationsources(Fig.5).Additionally,thecost-competitivenessofcombiningsolarpowerwithstorage,incomparisontousinggasturbinestomeetpeakdemand,isunquestionable.Thiscanbeseeninanincreasingnumberofcountriesworldwidesettinghybridrenewableauctions.Suchauctionsinvolvetheco-locationofdifferentrenewableenergysourcesalongsidebatterystorage,offeringaflexibleandversatilesolutiontomeetenergyrequirements.FIGURE5SOLARELECTRICITYGENERATIONCOSTINCOMPARISONWITHCONVENTIONALPOWERSOURCES2023050100150200250300LCOE(USD/MWh)ResidentialPVC&IPVUtility-scalePVCCGTCoalNuclearUtility-scalePV+storageGaspeakerSOURCE:Lazard(2023).Nominalterms,post-tax.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202713UPDATE2000-2022In2022,theworldgrid-connected239GWofnewsolarcapacity,markingasubstantialgrowthof45%comparedtothepreviousyear’sadditionof165GW(refertoFig.6).Thissurgeinsolarcapacitycanbeattributedtoacombinationoffactors,includingthestabilisationofsupplychainsastheworldrecoveredfromCOVID-19,newmanufacturingcapacitiescomingonline,andthemanypost-pandemiceconomicrecoveryprogramsimplementedworldwide.However,theundisputedmaindriverwastheglobalenergycrisisthatledtosoaringelectricityprices.Inresponsetothatchallenge,manyindividualsandentitiesturnedtosolarpowerasaviablesolutiontomeettheirenergyneeds.Thecombinationofthesepositivefactorsbroughtthebestyear-on-yeargrowthratesince2016,whentheglobalmarketwaswellbelow100GW.Inourpreviousedition,wehadprojectedaglobalsectorgrowthof229GWinourMediumScenario,expectinga36%year-on-yearincreaseinthemarket.Thisoptimisticoutlookwasbasedontheanticipationofsolar’sstrongperformancethroughouttheeconomicrecoveryandthefactthatmanyprojectsduetobecommissionedin2021weredelayedto2022asaconsequenceofCOVID-19.Theactualfigureof239GWisalittleabovelastyear’sprediction,indicatingthatourforecast,whichmighthavebeenconsideredbuoyantoneyearago,wasinfacttooconservative.Itisnoteworthy,however,thatthishigherinstallationcapacitywasintherangeoflastyear’sHighScenarioof271GW.China,theundisputedworld’slargestsolarmarket,enteredanewdimensionwithanannualmarketcloseto100GW–a72%growthratefromthe54.9GWinstalledin2021,whichwasalreadyanall-timehigh.Moreover,positivedynamicswereobservedinnumeroussolarmarketsacrosstheglobe,withnotableprogressseeninEurope,Brazil,andIndia.FIGURE6ANNUALSOLARPVINSTALLEDCAPACITY2000-20220GWEuropeAMERAPACChinaMEA2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202219%18%23945%50100150200250300©SOLARPOWEREUROPE20231Globalsolarmarket-Update2000-2022/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202714TOP10GlobalSolarMarketsThemajorityofthetop10solarmarketsin2022retainedtheirpositionsfromthepreviousyear,althoughthereweresignificantshiftsinrankingsandsomenewcomersduetovaryinggrowthdynamics(seeFig.7).Chinadoubled-downonitspositionasthemarketleaderin2022,installingmorethanfourtimesasmuchsolarPVcapacityasthesecond-largestmarket,theUnitedStates.China’sadditionsin2022actuallysurpassedthecombinedcapacityaddedbytheothertop9markets.TheChinesemarketcontinueditsstronggrowth-sincetheslowdownitexperiencedin2019with30GW-,withinstallationsbouncingbackto48.2GWin2020(60%annualgrowth),54.9GWin2021(14%),andastaggering94.7GW(72%)in2022.Whileinstallationsin2021wereslightlyabovetheprevious2017recordof52.8GW,2022marksadistinctnewgrowthphase.Solar’scompetitivenessinbothutility-scaleanddistributedsolarapplicationsandanincreasingawarenessfortheattractivenessofsolarpoweraredrivingdemandintheworld’ssecondlargesteconomy.TheChineserooftopsegment–drivenbothbyresidentialandC&I,hada54%marketsharein2022,continuingitsdominancefrom2021,whenitcontributed53%tonewlyinstalledcapacity.In2022,Chinaalsoreachedasignificantmilestonebysurpassingthe400GWmarkintotalsolarinstallations,despiteonlysurpassingthe300GWmarkbyasmallmarginoneyearearlier.TheUnitedStates’solarmarketexperiencedaturbulentyearin2022,butkeptitsspotasthesecondlargestmarket.Thecountryinstalled21.9GW,a6%annualdecreaseinayearmarkedbytheanticircumventioninvestigations,theUyghurForcedLaborProtectionAct(UFLPA),andthepassingofthehistoricalInflationReductionAct(IRA).Thislacklustreperformanceputtoahalttheuninterruptedgrowthexperiencedsince2017.Likeinthepreviousyears,themajorityofinstallationscamefromtheutility-scalesegment,accountingfor13.8GWor63%ofthetotal.However,thisisan18%dropfromthe16.8GWinstalledin2021,asthelarge-scalesegmentwasthemostimpactedbythedetainmentsofproductscausedbytheUSCustoms’WithholdReleaseOrder(WRO)andtheUFLPA.Onthecontrary,therooftopsegmentflewhighandgrew25%toreach8.1GW,drivenbyastrongresidentialdemand.FIGURE7TOP10SOLARPVMARKETS,2021-20220102030405060708090100GW20222021ChinaUnitedStatesAustraliaJapanGermanySpainNetherlandsIndiaPolandBrazil94.721.917.410.97.48.46.54.54.14.054.923.414.25.56.04.86.43.83.66.0©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202715India’sreboundcontinuedin2022–thedisappointing2018-2020developmentperiodseemstobehistory.Solardemandwasonaconstantdeclinefrom2017to2020,plummetingfrom11.5GWtoamere3.9GW.However,afterpostinganewinstallationrecordin2021,thecountryaddedanimpressive17.4GWofsolarcapacityin2022–beatingthe2021recordbyover3GW.Thisachievementsecuredthecountrythethirdpositionitgotbackin2021.Indiaexperienceda23%annualgrowthrate,apaththatisexpectedtocontinueasthecountrytargets500GWofnon-fossilfuelelectricitycapacityby2030anditscommitmenttoachievenet-zerocarbonemissionsby2070.Despitetheimpressiveprogress,Indiastillfaceschallengesinitssolarindustry.ThecountrywasheavilyhitbyCOVID-19andseveralprojectsremainsdelayedbecauseofsupplychainsdisruptions.Additionally,withtheintroductionoftheBasicCustomDutyin2022,imposinga40%dutyonimportedmodulesand25%oncells,manyprojectsarefacingfinancingchallenges.Moreover,therooftopmarketremainsunderdeveloped-only4.9GWwasaddedin2022presentinga28%shareofannualinstallations.Rooftopsolarwasresponsibleforacumulativecapacityofabout10GWbyendof2022,whichisfallingsignificantlyshortofthe40GWtargetforrooftopsolar,andconsideredthemainreasonwhyIndiamissedits100GWsolartargetbyalargemargin.Thecountryhadinstalledatotalofonly77GW.OvercomingthesechallengeswillbecrucialforIndiatofurtheraccelerateitssolaradoptionandachieveitsambitiousrenewableenergytargets.Aftermakingitsdebutinthetop10solarmarketsin2021atthe7thposition,Brazilhasnowenteredthetop5atthe4thposition–currentlythesolerepresentativefromLatinAmericainthetop10.Thecountryinstalled10.9GWofsolarcapacityin2022,basicallydoublingitspreviousrecordof5.5GWin2021.Themajorityoflastyear’sinstallations,around8GW,camefromdistributedsolarsystemswithacapacityofupto5MW.Untiltheendoflastyear,thesegmentenjoyedaveryattractivenet-meteringscheme,whoseruleshavechangedforprojectsbuiltfrom2023onwards,includingnewgrid-connectionfees.Thistriggeredarushofinstallationsin2022fromconsumerswishingtoaccessthemorebeneficialscheme.TheBraziliansolarsectoralsosawgrowthincentralisedsystems,totalling1.5GWandprimarilydrivenbyenergyauctionsforlarge-scalepowerplants,aswellasthedevelopmentofsomepowerpurchaseagreement(PPA)basedsystems.Brazil’simpressiveascentinthesolarmarkethighlightsthecountry’spotentialandgrowinginterestinrenewableenergy.Despitethechallengesposedbyitsinvestment-needingtransmissionsystem,Brazil’ssolarsectordemonstratedresilienceandgrowthinbothIllustrationof0.5MWoffshoresolarprojectoffthecoastofScheveningen,DutchNorthSea.©SolarDuck1Globalsolarmarket-Update2000-2022/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202716distributedandcentralisedsolarinstallations.Amarketcontractionisneverthelessexpectedintheshort-term,inlightofthelessfavourablenet-meteringrules.Spainmovedupbythreepositionsintherankingandisnowclosingthetop5,becomingtheleadingEuropeanmarketwithanewlyinstalledcapacityof8.4GWin2022.Thisrepresentsanotable76%increasefromthe4.8GWinstalledtheyearbefore.ThemainbulkofinstallationscontinuestobeitsrobustPPA-drivenutility-scalesegment,whichaccountedfor5.3GWofinstallationsin2022withoutrelyingonanyformofsubsidies,makingSpainoneofthelargestsubsidy-freesolarmarketsglobally.Thistrendisexpectedtopersistasthecountrystreamlinedenvironmentalpermitsforover25GWofsolarPVplantsinearly2023.However,asecondkeydriverbehindSpain’sprogressin2022wasthesignificantevolutionofitsself-consumptionrooftopmarket.In2022,therooftopsegmentachieved3GWofnewcapacity,doublingthemarketsizefromoneyeartotheother.Alongsidepolicyimprovements,risingelectricitypricesstemmingfromtheenergycrisishavebecomeastrongincentiveforhomeownersandbusinessestoadoptsolarpower.Thisfactormightbecomeevenmorerelevantin2024oncethepricecaponnaturalgasusedforpowergenerationends,whichisplannedforattheendof2023.However,energypricesontheEuropeanspotmarketshavedroppedsignificantlyinthespringof2023.Withinthetop5markets,significantdifferencesremain(seeFig8).Chinatookastrongleadin2016,andnoothermarketshavebeenclosetoplayinginitsleaguesince.Thegapbetweenthe#1marketandthe#3marketisfivefold,whilethedifferencebetweenthe#1and#5marketsexceedselevenfold.In2021,thedifferencebetweentop#1and#5wasonlyeightfold.ComingasthesecondEuropeanmarketinthisranking,Germanymaintainedits#6position,thesamespotitheldin2021.Thecountrywitnesseda23%growthingrid-connectedsolarcapacity,reaching7.4GWin2022comparedto6GWin2021.Germany’ssolarsectorismostlybasedonrooftopinstallations,whicharesupportedbyareliablefeed-inpremiumschemeandregulartendersforsystemslargerthan750kW–athresholdincreasedto1MWsinceJanuary2023.Householdsincreasinglyfindself-consumptionFIGURE8TOP5SOLARPVMARKETS2010-20220102030405060708090100GW2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022ChinaUnitedStatesIndiaBrazilSpain94.721.917.410.98.4©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202717solarPVsystemsattractive,veryoftencombiningtheirsolarinvestmentwithbatterystorage–afactoramplifiedbythepresenceofsomeofthehighestresidentialelectricityretailpricesinEurope.Ontheotherhand,theincreaseintendervolumesin2019hascontributedtothegrowthofground-mountedsolarcapacity,whichwasfurthersupportedbytheexpansionofPPAsystems.Theutility-scalesegmentgrewfrom2.2GWin2021to3GWin2022.TheGermangovernmenthasrecognisedthesignificanceofsolarpowerandsetambitioustargets,aimingforrenewablestoaccountfor80%ofthetotalpowergenerationby2030and100%by2035,andatargetof215GWofsolarPVcapacityby2030.TheflattertrajectoryofJapan’ssolarmarketimpacteditsranking,droppingfrom4thin2021to7thin2022.Thecountryinstalled6.5GWin2022,asimilarperformancetothe6.4GWconnectedin2021buta21%dropfromthe8.2GWin2020.Themajorityoftheinstalledcapacityin2022canbeattributedtofeed-intariff(FIT)andfeedinpremium(FIP)projectsthatreceivedapprovalafewyearsago.WiththeendoftheFITeraattheendof2022,themarkethasenteredatransitioningperiodthatisreflectedinstagnatinginstallationslevels,whilenewbusinessmodelsbasedonPPAsandthird-partyownershiparebeginningtogainmomentum.Poland,whichemergedasanewcomeronthetop10listlastyear,keepsgrowingandmoveduptwospotstorank8th.Thecountryinstalled4.5GWofsolarcapacityin2022,a20%growthcomparedtothepreviousyear.WhilethePolishmarkethasnowbeenintheradarofmostsolaranalystsforatleasttwoyears,itspositivedevelopmentexceededagainmostexpectations.ThegrowthofsolarinPolandhasbeenprimarilydrivenbysmallrooftopsystemsbelow50kW.Thissegmentbenefitedfromafavourablenet-meteringschemethatwasinplaceuntilMarch2022GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2021-20251Globalsolarmarket-Update2000-2022/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202718andhasbeensubstitutedbyanet-billingsystem.In2022,Poland’srooftopsegmentwasresponsiblefor78%oftheinstalledcapacity.Whilethefutureofthesmallrooftopmarketremainsuncertain,Polandisnowshiftingitsfocustowardsthelarge-scalesegment.ManycompaniesareeyeingsolarPVtosecuretheirenergysupplyviaPPAs.Unlikeitswindenergycounterpart,solarpowerinPolandfacesfewersignificantregulatorybarriersandhasthepotentialtomeetthecountry’senergyneedswithinarelativelyshorttimeframe.Still,theaginginfrastructureandtheamendmenttotheSpatialPlanningandDevelopmentActcouldposeachallengeforthelong-termdevelopmentoflarge-scalePVinthecountry.AkeyplayerontheEuropeanplaygroundfornowseveralyears,theNetherlandsmadeitsfirstentryonthetop10globalsceneatthe9thspotin2022.Thecountryinstalled4.1GWin2022,acceleratingitsupwardtrajectoryfromthe3.6GWinstalledin2021(+13%YoY),and3.5GWin2020(+2%YoY).Thegrowthintheresidentialsegmentplayedasignificantrole,contributing1.8GWor46%ofcapacityadditions,thankstotheattractivenet-meteringpolicythathasbeenconsistentlyinplace.Atthesametime,theC&Isegmentfacedchallengesfromtherisingtechnologyandlogisticscosts,resultinginaslightlossofmomentum–adding1.3GW,itssharedroppedby5percentagepointsto37%yearonyear.However,theDutchsolarmarketmaintainsagoodbalancebetweenitsvarioussegments,positioningitastheleadingEuropeancountryintermsofsolarcapacitypercapita.Consideringthelimitedavailablespaceforground-mountedinstallations,theindustryisexploringinnovativesolutionssuchason-andoff-shorefloatingsolar,andsolarcarports,alongwithincreasedlocalparticipationinrenewableenergyprojects,aimedatenhancingsocialacceptanceandintegration.Losingfiveplacesintheglobalranking,Australiaclosesthetop10markets.In2022theAustralianmarkettookastepbackwards,afteruninterruptedpositiveprogresssince2014.Thecountrydeployed4GWin2022,a34%decreasefromtherecord6GWinstalledin2021.Still,Australiaremainsthecountrywiththehighestsolarpowerpercapitaintheworld.ThechallengingbusinessconditionsresultingfromtheRussianinvasioninUkraineandcomponentpriceincreaseslimitedgrowthinthesectorasawhole.However,theelectionofagovernmentsupportiveofrenewableandclimateactioningeneralisexpectedtotranslateintoafavourableenvironmentforrenewableenergydeployment.Also,theimprovedPVcomponentpriceconditionsinrecentmonthshavealreadyresultedinanincreaseofsolarinstallationsincomparisontothefirstmonthsin2022.1.6MW,Bergen,Norway.©BayWar.e.GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202719Tosummarise,2022provedtobeanexceptionallystrongyearforsolarenergy,consideringthatseveralcountrieswerestillfacingCOVID-19relatedrestrictionsinthefirstmonthsofthatyear.Witha45%annualgrowth,newinstallationscomfortablypassedthe200GWmilestoneforthefirsttimeinhistory.Similarlytopreviousyears,growthwasprimarilydrivenbyChina,furthercementingitsglobalsolarleadership.Chinaalonewasresponsiblefor40%ofglobalannualinstallationsin2022,up7percentagepointsfromthe33%itprovidedin2021(seeFig.9).Mostoftheothertop10marketsdecreasedtheirglobalsharecomparedtothepreviousyear,whiletheportioninstalledinallremainingcountriesincreasedfrom22%to25%,emphasisingtheincreasingrecognitionofsolarpowerasacrucialsolutionincombatingclimatechange.ThisisalsoreflectedintherecordnumberofcountriesreachinganannualGW-size:in2022,26countriescrossedthethreshold,comparedto17theyearbefore.Detailsonthese26marketscanbefoundinChapter4wherenationalindustryassociationsactiveinthesolarsectorprovideanalysisontheirhomemarkets(seep.69).RegionalUpdateFollowingtherecord-breakingsolaryearinChina,theAsia-Pacific(APAC)regionincreaseditsglobalsolardominance,gaining3percentagepointsandreaching60%ofannualinstalledcapacityin2022.However,APACconsideredwithoutChinalostglobalmarketshare,droppingfrom24%to20%(seeFig.19).ThisreflectsthegiganticsizeofChina,whoseshareincreasedfrom33%to40%inasingleyear.Nevertheless,withtheadditionof144GWin2022,significantlysurpassingthe94.3GWinstalledin2021,ChinatogetherwiththeotherAsia-Pacificcountries,whichadded48.9GW,maintainthepositionasthelargestsolarmarketregionglobally.WhileChinaundisputedlycontinuedtodrivethewholeAPACsolarmarket,whenlookingattheotherkeyregionalplayersitisnotablethatthe3.2GWmarginalgrowthinIndiawasnotsufficienttocompensatefortheslowdowninAustraliaandSouthKorea,whosecombinedannualmarketdecreasedbyalmost4GW.ThedownwardtrendofAPACwithoutChinacontinues,afterthedeclinealreadyseenin2021,whenitssharedroppedfrom27%to24%duetothesubstantialdownturninFIGURE9TOP10COUNTRIESSOLARSHARE2022RestofWorld;25%Australia;2%Netherlands;2%Poland;2%Japan;3%Spain;3%Brazil;4%India;7%Germany;3%UnitedStates;9%China;40%239GW2022©SOLARPOWEREUROPE20231Globalsolarmarket-Update2000-2022/continuedtheVietnamesemarket,whichdropped10GWdownto2GWandresultedinthelossofitstop10position.WhileVietnamhasnotrecovered,thenumberofAsian-Pacificcountriesinthetoptenglobalplayershavedecreasedfrom5to4in2022,asSouthKoreawasreplacedbytheNetherlands.InEurope,thestrongperformanceofthesolarindustryledtoamajorincreaseinannualinstalledcapacity.Theregionwitnessedayear-on-yeargrowthof14.1GWor44%percentagepoints,afteritinstalledatotalof46.1GWin2022,contributingtoaglobalmarketshareof19%.ThisoutcomesetstheOldContinent,whichwastheglobalmarketleaderbetween2004and2012,againasthesecondlargestregioninannualsolarPVdeployment,surpassingtheAmericas.ThisresultishigherthantheMediumScenarioprojectionfromourpreviousGMO,whereweanticipatedthecontinentwouldadd39.1GW,whichis7GWlowerthantheactualresult.Over80%ofEuropeanmarketsinstalledmoresolarthantheyearbefore.Spainbecamethenewsolarchampionoftheregionwith8.4GWovertakingthesceptrefromGermany,whichgrewby1.4GWto7.4GW,butthatwasnotenoughtodefenditsEuropeanleadershiptitle.Poland(4.5GW),theNetherlands(4.0GW),andItaly(2.5GW)alsooutperformedtheirpreviousyear’sperformance.Europe’ssecondspotintheregionalranking,infact,isnotduetoanincreaseinitsrelativeshare,whichremainedstableat19%,butrathertoadecreaseintheAmericas’relativesharefrom20%to17%.Theregionhasnowdroppedtorank#3intermsofannualsolarcapacityadditions,standingat41.1GW–whichisstilla22%increasefromthe33.6GWinstalledthepreviousyear.WhiletheUSremainedtheleadingplayerintheregion,thedecreaseofitsannualmarketsizefrom23.4GWto21.9GWhassomewhatreduceditsregionalpredominancein2022.Theothertwo-digitGWsolarforceisnowcomingfromSouthAmerica–Brazildoubleditsannualinstalledcapacityfrom5.5GWin2021to10.9GWin2022.While,asinthepreviousyear,boththeUSandBrazilwerethemaindriversofsolargrowthintheregionin2022,Chilehasalsoconfirmeditsincreasinglyrelevantroleinthecontinent,growingfrom1.3GWto1.8GW.Conversely,Mexico,nowrankedfourthintheAmericas,continueditsdeclineduetounfavourablegovernmentpoliciesthatprioritisefossilfuelsoverrenewablesandthestate-ownedcompanyCFEoverothermarketplayers.FIGURE10ANNUALSOLARPVINSTALLEDCAPACITYSHARES2018-20220102030405060708090100%20222018201920202021EuropeAMERAPACChinaMEA3%3%6%2%3%40%43%26%35%33%20%27%31%27%24%17%16%18%19%20%19%11%20%17%19%©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202721Finally,in2022,theMiddleEastandAfrica(MEA)regionwitnessedremarkablesolargrowth,adding8.3GW,whichrepresentsa77%increasecomparedtothepreviousyear.Thisprogressisanewall-timehighfortheregion,breakingMEA’srecordof6.7GWin2019,whenmultiplelarge-scaleprojectswerecommissioned.ThoughnoMEAcountriesreachedtheGW-levelin2021,twomarketshaveachievedthisthresholdin2022.IsraelemergedasthelargestsolarmarketintheMiddleEast,reachingtheGWscaleforthefirsttimewithjustover1GWofnewlyinstalledcapacity,from935MWin2021.OntheAfricancontinent,SouthAfricaretaineditsleadingposition,installing1.3GWofsolarcapacityin2022andachievingtheGW-scaleasforecastedlastyear.TotalSolarInstallationsuntil2022Bytheendof2022,theglobalcumulativeinstalledcapacityofsolarPVsystemsexperienced25%growth,reaching1,177GWcomparedto938GWin2021,whenthesolarfleetgrewby21%(Fig.11).Thesolarpowercapacityhasmultiplied740timessincethebeginningofthemillennium,whenthegrid-connectedsolarerabeganwithGermany’sintroductionofthefeed-intarifflaw.Whencomparingthecapacityin2022withthesolarfleetatthestartofthepreviousdecade,theglobalon-gridPVcapacityhasgrown28timesfromthe41.4GWoperatingin2010.Majorsolarmarketdevelopmentmilestoneswere2008,whenthe10GWlevelwassurpassed,and2012,whenthe100GWwasreached.Itthentookuntil2018tocrackthe500GW,and4yearsuntilthemarketdoubledtotheTWlevelin2022.FIGURE11TOTALSOLARPVINSTALLEDCAPACITY2000-202202004006008001,0001,2001,400GWEuropeAMERAPACChinaMEA2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202226%22%21%1,177©SOLARPOWEREUROPE20231Globalsolarmarket-Update2000-2022/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202722TheAPACregion,ledbyChinaandIndia,demonstratedsustainedgrowthandmaintaineditspositionastheworld’ssolarpowerhouse.Byendof2022,theAPACregionincludingChinaaccountedfor59%ofglobalsolarpowergenerationcapacity,withatotalof692GW(seeFig.12).Withover400GWinstalled,Chinaaloneprovided58%ofAPAC’ssolarcapacity,whiletherestoftheregioncontrolstheremaining289GW.DespitethegrowthexperiencedinmostoftheEuropeansolarmarkets,theregion’sglobalmarketsharemarginallydecreasedby1percentagepointto21%.Unlikeforannualinstallations,whereitregainedthesecondrank,whenitcomestothetotaloperatingsolarfleet,EuropewasandremainedtheNo.2in2022.Therecord-additionof46.1GWevenallowedEuropetostrengthenitssecondpositionwithacumulativePVcapacityof252GW.TheAmericaskeptits#3regionalrankingin2022.Theregion’stotalinstalledPVcapacityofexactly200GWresultedinaglobalshareof17%,unchangedcomparedto2021.AlthoughtheMiddleEastandAfricaregionwitnessedsubstantialdemandgrowth,ithadnomajorimpactonitssolarpositioning.Theregion’scumulativesolarcapacitystoodat33.3GW,withitsglobalshareremainingat3%in2022.FIGURE12TOTALSOLARPVINSTALLEDCAPACITYSHARES2018-20220102030405060708090100%20212022201820192020EuropeAMERAPACChinaMEA2%3%3%3%3%34%32%33%33%34%25%26%26%26%25%15%16%16%17%17%24%24%22%22%21%©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202723Ananalysisofindividualcountries’operatingfleetsshowsoncemoreChina’sdominantpositioninthesolarworld.Thankstoitsoperationalfleetof403GW,Chinaaloneprovided34%oftheworld’ssolarcapacity,onepercentagepointmorethanin2021(Fig.13).DespitethesheervolumeofgloballydeployedsolarPVsystems,thecountrymaintainsaremarkableinfluenceonglobalsolardynamics.TheUnitedStatescomfortablymaintainedthesecondpositionwith141GW,howeveritssharedecreasedbyonepointto12%.Still,itremainstheonlycountrybesidesChinawithadouble-digitshareinglobalsolarpowergenerationcapacityandwithmorethan100GWinstalled.Japankeptthethirdpositionitheldin2021,butitsrelativesharedecreasedbyonepercentagepointto7%withafleetof84.1GW.Bycontrast,India’ssecondstrongyearinarowhelpedthecountrytosurpassGermanyandsecurethefourthpositionbytheendof2022.India’stotalPVinstallationreached77.6GWanditsglobalmarketshareslightlyincreasedfrom6%to7%.Germanydroppedbyonerankandclosesthetop5in2022withanunchanged6%shareanda68GWsolarfleet.Membersofthetop5grouparelongstanding,andareunlikelytochangeanytimesoon.Australia,rankingsixth,aspreviousyear,haslessthanhalfthetotalsolarPVcapacityofGermany.Amongthebottomhalfofthetop10,notablechangesincludeSpainclimbingtwostepstoreachtheseventhpositionwith27.4GW,overtakingbothItaly–8thwith24.6GW–andSouthKorea–9thwith24.3GW.Brazil,anewcomercompletingthislistandovertakingVietnam’s10thposition,reached24GWoftotalinstalledcapacity.FIGURE13TOP10SOLARPVMARKETSTOTALINSTALLEDSHARES2022RestofWorld;23%Australia;3%Brazil;2%Germany;6%SouthKorea;2%India;7%Japan;7%Italy;2%Spain;2%UnitedStates;12%China;34%1,177GW2022©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027241Globalsolarmarket-Update2000-2022/continuedSolarwattpercapita–theworldseemsdifferentLookingatinstalledPVcapacitiesfromaper-capitaperspective,onecanfindacompletelydifferentoutlookontheglobalsolarlandscape.Noneofthetopthreeglobalsolarmarkets,namelyChina,theUS,andIndia,featuresinthetop10listofinstalledcapacitypercapita(refertoFig.14).However,comparedtolastyear,weobservethatthemostprominentplayersintheglobalsolarmarket,moreandmorefigurealsointhelistofhighestinstalledsystemcapacitiesperinhabitant.In2021,amongthe10largestannualsolarmarkets,only4werealsopartofthetop10marketsintermsofinstalledW/capita–namelyAustralia,Germany,Japan,andSouthKorea.In2022,therearenow5playersthatfeatureinboththetop10ofannualmarkets,andthetop10ofinstalledwattpercapita:Australia,theNetherlands,Germany,JapanandSpain.Europeisnowthemostrepresentedcontinent,withthreeplayersappearinginbothrankings.Fewchangestookplaceinthetop5marketsintermsofinstalledcapacityperinhabitant.ThepodiumremainsthesamewithAustralia(1,191W/capita)leading,aheadofTheNetherlands(1,029W/capita)andGermany(815W/capita).TheNetherlandshasjoinedAustraliaintheexclusiveclubofcountriesthatreachedinstallationlevelofover1kWperinhabitantin2022.Bothcountriesareexpectedtoholdtheirpositionsasthepercapitasolarleaders.Onthefourthposition,Denmarkwith713W/capitaisclimbingitswayupfromthe7thpositionitheldin2021,relegatingJapanatthefifthpositionwith677W/capita.FIGURE14WORLDTOP10COUNTRIESSOLARCAPACITYPERCAPITA2022AustraliaBelgiumSpainLegendDenmarkJapanEstoniaGreeceNetherlandsGermany1st6th8th5th7th10th2nd1,191(1,048)Watt/capita667(585)Watt/capita572(400)Watt/capitaWatt/capitain2022677(621)Watt/capita713(424)Watt/capita601(404)Watt/capita531(397)Watt/capita1,029(801)Watt/capita815(727)Watt/capitaSwitzerland9th535(422)Watt/capita4th3rd(Watt/capita)in2021©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023Amongthelargestannualsolarmarkets,China,theUnitedStatesandIndiastandat283,417,and55W/capita,respectively.Theyholdposition26,17,and64intermsofcountrieswiththehighestinstalledcapacityperinhabitant,astrikingdifferencecomparedtotheirabsoluteinstallationlevels.In2022,anaverageof144W/capitawereinstalledacrosstheglobe,up23%fromthe117W/capitain2021(seeFig.18).At296W/capita,Europehasthehighestregionalaverage,followedbytheAmericas(187W/capita),APAC(154W/capita),andMEA(17W/capita).©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGURE15SOLARPVWATTPERCAPITABYREGION,2000-2022Wattpercapita05010015020025030035020002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022EuropeAMERAPACMEAGlobal29618715414417PROSPECTS2023-2027Forecast2023Attheonsetof2022,therewasoptimismonthedemandsidethatthehighprevailingpricesinthesolarsectorwoulddecrease.However,buyersofsolarproductshadtowaituntilthesecondhalfof2022towitnessastabilisationinsolarprices,withadownwardtrendslowlyappearingonlytowardsNovemberandDecember2022.Whilethepricesofsilicon,wafers,cells,andmodulesarestillhigherthanacoupleofyearsago,pricescamedownduringthefirstmonthsof2023,arelieffortheindustryafteranupwardtrendlastingalmost18months.Manyanalystsarenowexpectingpricestocontinuetodecreaseasnewproductioncapacitiesarecomingonline,mostlyconcentratedinChina.Additionally,thepredictionthatmanydeveloperswouldhavepostponedtheirprojectsto2023seemstohavecometrue.Thefirst2023quarterlynumbersofChinaaloneindicateanincreaseof155%comparedtothefirstquarterof2022.Onawiderperspective,theglobaleconomyisstillimpactedbyinflationandisgrapplingwiththeenduringrepercussionsoftheenergycrisis.TheEuroareaentered2023withinflationratesover8%,nowdownto7%asofApril2023.TheannualinflationrateintheUSalsofellto4.9%inApril2023,itslowestpointsincethe9.1%ofJune2022.ThesituationisChinaislesssevere,withinflationratesnowdowntobetween0-1%,from2.8%inSeptember2022.Inthiscontext,thesolarindustryisexpectedtowitnessremarkablegrowthin2023.AccordingtoourMediumScenario,newlyinstalledsolarcapacityisprojectedtoreach341GW,reflectingagrowthrateof43%comparedtothe239GWinstalledin2022(seeFig.16).OurMediumScenarioestimatemightappearslightlymoreconservativecomparedtorecentforecastsofothersolaranalysts.EndofMarch,S&PGlobal(formerlyIHSMarkit)revisedupwardsits2023forecastby30GWto360GW,whilePVInfolink’smarketupdate,alsoreleasedinMarch,expects351GWofinstalledcapacityinitsmostprobablyscenario.Initslatestsolarmarketforecast,BloombergNEFbecamealsomoreambitious,estimatinginstallationstorangebetween233and380GWwithamid-pointof344GW,upfrom316GWassumedinJanuary2023.Thereareindustryexpertswhobelievethemarketwillabsorbasmuchas400GW,whiletheIEA,whichjustpublisheditsRenewables2023report,isstandingoutontheotherside.TheIEAalsohailssolarastheleadingforceinrenewabledeployment,butitexpectsonly286GWofsolaradditionsin2023initsMaincase,andslightlyabove300GWinitsAcceleratedcase.However,thisisalsostronglyupfromits2022installationnumberof220GW,whichisalsomuchlowerthantheestimateofanyoneelse.1Globalsolarmarket-Prospects2023-2027/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202726©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGURE16WORLDANNUALSOLARPVMARKETSCENARIOS2023-20270GWHistoricaldataLowScenarioHighScenarioMediumScenario100200300400500600700800900202220232024202520262027201820192020202123943%15%15%16%17%341401462534617Inanycase,allanalysts’forecastsclearlyindicatethatsolardeploymentisproceedingatastrongpace.OurMediumScenarioanticipatesthattheveryhigh45%growthrateexperienced2022willbebasicallyrepeatedin2023.What’smore,itassumesthattheannualmarketwillbemorethan100GWlargerthanlastyear–suchsteeppaceofdeploymentwasoutsideanyone’sradaruntilveryrecently(seeourcomparisonwithpreviousforecastsonp.40).Modellingtheworstcasefor2023,ourLowScenarioanticipatesmarketgrowthof292GW,thatwouldbestillup22%from2022.Thislowerestimateisveryunlikelytoturnintorealitygiventhestrongdemandforsolarinthefirstmonthsoftheyeararoundtheworld.WhenwewrotethepreviousGMOedition,ShanghaiwasstillunderLockdown,buttodayanystrictCOVID-19restrictionsseeminconceivable,afterChinaendeditszero-COVIDpolicyinDecember2022thatwasfollowedbyamassiveinfectionwave.AnexpansionoftheRussianwaragainstUkrainetoothercountriesisapossibility,butabigspilloverseemsratherunlikelyinthenearfuture.MuchmorelikelyisamarketdevelopmentindirectionofourHighScenario,whichanticipatessolaradditionsofupto402GWthisyear–anumberthatishigherthantheupsidepotentialestimatedbyBNEFandS&P(bothataround380GW).Withenergysecuritystillhighontheagendaofmanycountries,andtherecord-highenergypricesfromlastyearstillonpolicymakers’mind,theycontinuetheirworkonimplementingmeasurestoeasedevelopment,installationandgrid-connectionofsolarsystemsaheadofthenextwinter.Andwithproductpricesfallingalongthevaluechainnowforseveralmonths–andnoendinsightwhenlookingattheindustry’sovercapacitiesthatareonlygrowing,thispricedevelopmenttrendwilltriggerdemand,andlikelybereflectedalreadyinthisyear’snumbers.BEFORETHEREISASOLARPANEL–THEREISWACKERCREATINGTOMORROW’SSOLUTIONS•LowCarbonFootprint•HighEfficiencyandDurability•MadeinEuropeandUSAWackerChemieAG,Hanns-Seidel-Platz4,81737Munich,Germany,www.wacker.com/contactFollowuson:www.wacker.com/solarRegionalmarketdevelopments2023ThemarketinAsia-Pacificwillcontinuetobedominatedbythetwolargestcountries,ChinaandIndia,representingacombined79%oftheregion’s2023installations.ThemarketinChinahasnowfinaliseditstransitionalphasefromfeed-intariffstoauctionsandnon-subsidisedsystems.Itshowedastonishingresiliencethroughoutthepandemicandreached48GWin2020,then54.9GWin2021,and2022markedagainarecordyearof94.7GW,a72%year-on-yeargrowthrate.ThiswassignificantlyhigherthantheglobalsolarPVmarketexpansionrate,whichstoodat45%in2022.Inourpreviousassessment,wehadestimatedtheChinesesolarmarkettogrowby59%in2022toreach87.2GW.Industryanalystswidelyagreethat2023willwitnessanewlevelofsolardemandinChina,beingpushedupwardbygrowingelectricityneeds,lowerPVproductprices,andpoliticaltargetsforrenewabledevelopment.OurMediumScenarioforChinaleansmoretowardstheoptimisticside,anticipating141GW,a49%YoYgrowthrate.Ourupbeatexpectationsstemfromthefactthatinthefirstquarterof2023Chinaconnectedarecord-breaking33.6GWAC(38.7GWDC)2ofPVcapacitytothegrid,a155%growthfromthesameperiodin2022.BytheendofApril2023,itinstalled48.3GWAC(55.5GWDC),accordingtoChina’sNationalEnergyAdministration.Projectionsfromvariousanalystsshowawiderange,butareallnorthof100GW.WhiletheChinaPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation(CPIA)expectsthemarkettobesomewherebetween95GWand120GW,TrendForceforecasts148GW.Theboomingsolarrooftopsector,whichwasevenbiggerthantheground-mountedsystemssegmentinthelasttwoyears,hasbecomeamajordriverofgrowthinChina’ssolarmarket,extendingbeyondresidentialareasandmakingitsmarkinthecommercialandindustrialsegment,whererisingpowerpriceshavebeenposingastrongincentiveforsolarinvestments.Chinahasahistoryofsurpassingitsrenewabletargets.ThesolarsectoroutperformedthedevelopmentgoalssetinthethreepreviousnationalFive-YearPlans(FYPs).Thecurrent14thFYPpublishedinJuly2022hassetanincreaseintherenewableshareintheelectricitymixfrom28.8%bytheendof2020to33%by2025.TheNationallyDeterminedContribution(NDC)isalsoverylikelytobereached5yearsearlier.TheNDCistargeting1,200GWofwindandsolarcapacityby2030,butthecountrycurrentlyhasalreadyaround810GWinstalled(380GWofwindand430GWofsolar).Thecountryalsohasprogrammesfordevelopingwindandsolarindesertregions,withatargetofinstalling450GWofwindandsolar.AsofMarch2023,97GWhavealreadybeengrid-connected,andconstructionofothersolarlocationsareprogressingsmoothly,accordingtoChinaGlobalTelevisionNetwork(CGTN).Theterminationofthecountry’s‘Zero-COVID’strategyhasalsocuttheoveralleconomysomeslack,withpositiverepercussionsonlarge-scalesolarprojects.IfChina’ssolarmarketachievestheprojected49%annualgrowthin2023,asoutlinedinourMediumScenario,itsglobalmarketsharewillriseto41%.UnderourHighScenario,themarketcouldgrowupto158GW.Thisambitiousprojectionwouldstemfromthegrid-connectionofmanyprojectsthatgotstackedinqueueduringthe2021-2022andabigboostthroughpricesformodulescollapsinginearlysummer.Followingthereboundexperiencedin2021withinstallationsof14.2GWanda265%growthrate,India’sprogressioncontinuedbutsloweddown,reaching17.4GWin2022.Weanticipatearelativelyslowergrowthyearin2023,withapproximately20GWofnewlyinstalledcapacity,representinga15%growthcomparedtothepreviousyear.Themarketkeepsexpanding,butitisimportanttoconsiderIndia’shistoricalsensitivitytoPVproductprices.Theimplementationofabasiccustomsdutyof25%onsolarcellsand40%onmodulesfromApril1st2022mayresultinprojectdelays.TherewerealsolittlemoduleimportsfromChinainthefirstmonthsoftheyear.Asaresult,ourLowScenarioassumesnogrowthinannualinstallations.Ontheotherhand,afterIndiafailedtomeetits100GWtargetbytheendof2022,thegovernmentisimplementingvariousmeasurestoreachitsambitiousgoalof280GWofsolarPVby2030.Accomplishingthistargetwouldrequiretheannualmarkettoexperiencerapidgrowth,averaging25GWperyearbetween2023and2030.ConsideringIndia’sgiganticsolarpotentialandthegovernmenteasingitsprotectivemeasuresforthemomenttobridgethegapuntillargevolumesofhome-madeproductswillbeavailable,ourHighScenarioprojectsanincreaseto27GWinstalledin2023.1Globalsolarmarket-Prospects2023-2027/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027282ChinasolarPVcapacityistypicallyexpressedinDCforrooftopsystemsandinACforutility-scalesystems.Forutility-scale,a1.15AC/DCconversionfactorhasbeenusedinouranalysis.DifferentdevelopmentsareexpectedacrossmostAsia-PacificGWmarketsin2023,withAustraliaprojectedtogrowby65%to6.5GW,Taiwancontinuingitspositivetrajectoryfrom2GWin2022to2.6GWin2023,andPakistan,whichjustcrossedtheGW-scaleforthefirsttimein2022,nowanticipatedtoreach1.3GWin2023.Aheavyweightintheregionfromthebeginningofthesolaron-gridera,Japanwasprojectedtoshrinkin2022butinfactmanagedtoremainstableat6.5GW.Asthecountrycontinuesitstransitionawayfromthefeed-intariffsperiodtowardmorediversebusinessmodels,themarketisexpectedtogrowonlymarginallyto6.7GWin2023.Onthecontrary,SouthKorea’spoliticalshifttowardsinflexiblenuclearandthereductionofitsrenewabletargetfrom30.2%to21.6%by2030hasnegativelyimpacteditssolarmarket.Thedownturnexperiencedin2022isexpectedtostay,withthemarketfurtherdroppingto2.4GWin2023,a17%annualreduction.TheAPACregionasawholewillcontinuetodominateglobaldemand,accountingfor60%oftotalinstallationsin2023(seeFig.17).However,whenconsideringonlytheinstallationsincountriesotherthanChina,theregion’sshareisprojectedtodeclineby2percentagepoints.Europe’smarketisprojectedtoexperiencesubstantialgrowthin2023.Itadded46.1GWin2022,aplusof14.1GWfrom2021,andisassumedtoadd62.4GWin2023,a35%annualincrease.However,duetoChina’sdominance,thecontinent’smarketsharewilllikelyshrinkalittleby1percentagepointto18%.TheEuropeanUnion(EU)isdrivingsolargrowththroughitsGreenDealandREPowerEUinitiativesandtheaimforcarbonneutralityby2050.TheinvasionofUkrainebyRussiahasmotivatedseveralEuropeancountriestoprioritiselow-costandversatilesolarpowerasanimportantmeanstoreducedependenceonRussiangasandimproveenergysecurity.WithintheEU-27,allbutonememberstate,Denmark,areprojectedtoinstallmoresolarcapacitythantheyearbefore.TheoutlooksforGermanyandSpainareparticularlyoptimistic–botharemodelledtogrid-connect11.8GWand11.4GW,respectively.Thestrongdeploymentinthefirstquarterof2023inGermanyprojectsamarketalmost3GWabovethegovernmenttarget,andsurpassingthe10GWannualinstallationlevelforthefirsttime.Despitethefactthatconditionsforthemajorresidentialsolar&storageincentiveprogrammehaveworsened,Italyisalsoassumedtobeontrackforfurthergrowth,from2.5GWin2022tojustabove4GWin2023.Over1GWwasdeployedin29FIGURE17EVOLUTIONOFGLOBALANNUALSOLARPVMARKETSHARESUNTIL20270100200300400500600700GW202720222023202420252026EuropeAMERAPACChinaMEA3%5%6%6%7%8%40%41%40%37%36%34%20%18%19%20%20%22%17%17%16%18%17%16%19%18%19%20%20%19%©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023thefirstquarter,backedbyinstallationsbelow20kW,whichadded647MW.C&Iinstallationsrepresentthesecondlargestsegment,whileutility-scalestillneedstofinditssweetspotforlargergrowth.OtherEuropeancountries,includingPoland,theNetherlands,France,Greece,Austria,Belgium,HungaryandSwedenarealsoanticipatedtocontributemeaningfullytothesolarmarketthisyear.Amongthenon-EUcountries,Türkiyeisbelievedtoinstall2.1GW,whiletheUnitedKingdom,reappearingontheGWmapin2022afterfiveyearsofabsence,isbackforgoodandisanticipatedtogrowto1.8GWin2023.Rooftop-drivenSwitzerlandclosesthepicturewithnewadditionsof1.2GWin2023.Overall,Europe’ssolarmarketispoisedforgrowth,drivenbylegislativeinitiatives,energytransitionplans,andthedesireforenergyindependencefromRussiangas.Despitefacingchallengessuchaspermits,gridcapacity,andskillsshortages,Europewillremainamajorplayerontheglobalsolarmapin2023andbeyond.TheAmericas’marketsharewillremainstableat17%in2023,allowingthecontinenttokeepitspositionasthethirdlargestregionforsolarinstallations,at58.5GW.ThemaindrivingforcebehindsolaradoptionintheAmericasistheUnitedStates,whichisexpectedtoholda60%sharein2023,upfrom53%in2022.ThepassingoftheInflationReductionAct(IRA)inAugust2022manifeststheBidenAdministration’sstrategytoturntheUSintoaglobalcleanenergypowerhouse.Therecentlegislationraisedtheinvestmenttaxcredit(ITC),whichservesastheprimaryinvestmentmechanismforsolarprojectsinthecountry,from26%to30%forbothcommercialandresidentialinitiativesandwillremainineffectuntiltheendof2032.Thatwillprovidethebasistoturnthesubstantialdevelopmentpipelineofutility-scaleprojectsintorealpowerplants,whiletherooftopsectorwillcontinuetothrive,evenifdiscussionaboutnetmeteringmodificationmightposechallenges.ThelegislationisalsoaimingtosparkanewchapterinsolarmanufacturingviabothsupportontheCapexandOpexside.FollowingtheIRAannouncementinAugust2022,largeinvestmentsinnewfactorieshavebeenannounced–fromdomesticcompaniesbutalsofromsolartechnologyleadersinEurope,Korea,andChina,amongothers.Furthermore,apreviouslysignificantsourceofuncertaintyforsolargrowthhasnowbecomelesscritical.Lastyear,theUSDepartmentofCommerce(DOC)’sinvestigationintothepotentialimpositionofanti-circumventiontariffsoncrystallinesiliconPVmodulesandcellsfromCambodia,Malaysia,Thailand,andVietnamputaquestionmarkonfuturePVdeploymentrates.However,inJune2022,President1Globalsolarmarket-Prospects2023-2027/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027307.5MW,Pfaffenweiler,Baden-Württemberg,Germany.©BayWar.e.Bidenintroducedatariffexemptionfortwoyearsonsolarmodulesmanufacturedinthesecountries.Thismeasureisaimedtosupportsolarinstallersuntilsubstantialdomesticmanufacturingcapacitiesarereadytosupportlocaldemand.WhilethetariffexemptionhasbeenrecentlyconfirmedbytheWhiteHouseandwillremaininplaceuntilJune2024,otherpolicyandtradeissuesarestillcausingheadachestosolardevelopersintheUS.TheimplementationofaWithholdReleaseOrder(WRO)inJune2021empowersUSCustomsandBorderProtectiontodetainsolarmoduleimportsfromChinabasedonforcedlabourallegations.Missingadministrationalprocedureshaveledtolargevolumesofsolarmodulesbeinglockedinwarehouses,whilemoduleimportsfromChineseleadingsuppliershavebeenreducedtoverysmallamountsascompaniesshyawayfromtheimportrisks.Despitetheseobstacles,theUnitedStatesareprobablytheworld’smostattractivelocationforsolarinvestmentstoday;theIRAisahistoricalpieceoflegislationinthecountry’scleanenergypolicy,supportingboththedownstreamandupstreamsolarsector,includingbalanceofsystemmanufacturers.OurMediumScenariopredicts60%growthinsolarcapacityto34.9GWthisyear,whileacknowledgingthedifficultiesfacedmostlybytheWRO,whichisaccountedforinourLowScenariowithaprojectedcapacityof27.9GW.InBrazil,thesecondmostimportantmarketintheAmericas,theoutlookforthisyearappearssomewhatlesspromisingthanlastyear.Brazilstillbenefitsfromanestablishedandrelativelyconsistentpowertenderschemeandthereisarapidlygrowingcorporatesolarmarketwithoutsubsidies.Nevertheless,startingfrom2023,modificationshavebeenmadetothetermsoftheverylucrativenet-meteringprogramforsystemsupto5MW.Thesechanges,whichencompassaprogressivefeeforusingthegridwhenelectricityisinjected,ledtorunforthemoneyin2022.Asaresult,aftergrowingby99%lastyear,theBrazilianmarketisnotforeseentogrowfurtherin2023-at10.6GW,however,itwilllikelystayatthepreviousyear’shighlevel,accountingfor18%oftheAmericancontinent.Onalesspositiveline,Mexico,anotherlong-standingGW-levelsolarmarketintheAmericas,thoughamuchlowerlevel,continuestoencounterchallengesinitspoliticalenvironmentforrenewableenergydeployment.Consequently,solarinstallationsinMexicoareexpectedtoslightlydeclineby8%to1.1GWin2023.Ontheotherhand,Chileisbecomingincreasinglyakeyplayerintheregion,withover1.8GWinstalledin2022andstronggrowthexpectationsof38%to2.5GWin2023.TheSouthAmericancountry,nowthethirdlargestintheregion,willaccountfor4%ofthemarketin2023.Thenationpossessesoneofthemostabundantsolarirradiationsglobally:itsnorthernregion,characterisedbyelevatedaltitude,frequentabsenceofclouds,andcomparativelylowlevelsofozoneandwatervapor,standsasoneoftheprimelocationsontheplanetforphotovoltaics.Nonetheless,thecountry’slackoftransmissionlinesposesachallengetosolardeploymentinthemid-run.Theincreaseininstallationsin2022didtranslateintoamarketsharegainforMiddleEastandAfrica(MEA),from2.8%to3.5%.Thesituationisexpectedtobesimilarthisyear.Withtheadditionof17.1GW,theregionwillexperienceanimpressivegrowthrateof106%,largelysurpassingtherecordlevelsachievedin2019.AccordingtoourMediumScenario,theMEAregionisprojectedtoexpandby1.5percentagepoints,reachingaglobalmarketshareof5%.ThisgrowthwillbeprimarilydrivenbytheUnitedArabEmirates(UAE)andSouthAfrica.WhilethelatterwasalreadyaGWmarketin2022withthedeploymentofseveralcorporateprocurementprojects,theUAEwasfocusedonbringingits2GWAlDhafraprojectonlinethisyear.ThelastpanelshavebeeninstalledinApril2023andtheprojectwillbecommissionedthisyear,aheadoftheupcomingCOP28eventinthecountry.AnewadditiononourGW-scaleradarin2022,Israelwillverylikelycontinueitsupwardtrendin2023.Numerouscountriesintheregion,allblessedwithveryfavourableirradiationconditions,areincreasinglyrecognisingthecostadvantages,businessandenergysecuritypotentialofsolarpower,leadingtoanupsurgeinsolaractivitiesthroughoutthearea.GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202731GlobalSolarMarketDevelopments2024to2027Themid-termglobaleconomicoutlookisuncertainandheavilydependentonextentofthefinancialsectorturmoil,thelevelofinflation,andtheunfoldingoftheconflictinUkraine.NotonlypredictstheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)initsAprilreleasedWorldEconomicOutlookaslowdowninglobalgrowthforthisyear,whichissupposedtodropfrom3.4%in2022to2.8%in2023,andinadvancedeconomiesfallfrom2.7%to1.3%,andpotentiallyevenbelow1%inthesameperiod;itoutlinesa“rockyrecovery”after3yearsofCOVID-19,projectingverylittlegrowthfor2024–upto3%inaverageworldwide,and0.1%pointsinadvancedeconomies.Whileglobalheadlineinflationisbelievedtofallfrom8.7%to7.0%asaresultoflowercommodityprices,theIMFseestheunderlyingcoreinflationtodeclineslower,andmostlyunlikelytoreturntotargetbefore2025.Despitetheseeconomicchallenges,andaswecanalreadyexperiencein2023,therewillbesignificantdemandforsolarPVpowerinthecomingyearsthankstostrongproductpricedecreasesandthemultiplebenefitsthetechnologyoffers.Astheclimateemergencyremainsontheradarofgovernments,againandagainremindedthroughclimatedisasterevents,energysecurityisafairlynewargumenttosupportthesolarcase.BothprioritieswerereflectedinthecommitmentoftheG7duringtheirsummitinApril2023inJapan,whenthegroupof7leadingindustrialnationsagreedtoaddcombinedsolarcapacityofmorethan1TWby2030,alongwith150GWoffshorewind.ComparedtothepreviousGMO,solarPVforecastsfortheyearsfrom2024onwardshavebeennotablyincreased.Themarketintheseyearsisexpectedtocontinueexpandinginthelowtwo-digitrange,aftertheextraordinaryboostthattookplacein2022and2023.Demandwillbesupportedbytheongoinggiganticexpansionofsolarproductioncapacitiesalongthewholevaluechain,withestablishedmanufacturersinvestingheavilyinadditionalcapacitiesandmanynewplayersenteringthemarket.Astheemphasisonlocalproductionhubshasgrowninlightofglobaltradefrictionsandtheincreasingrecognitionofsolarasacrucialtechnologyforenergyindependence,themajorityoftheleadingChinesecompanieshavealreadyannouncedtoexpandabroad.TheMediumScenarioprojectstheglobalsolarmarkettoreachthe400GWmilestonein2024.Thisrepresentsa17%growthratecomparedtothe341GWtobeaddedin2023.Between2024and2027,theworld’stopthreesolarmarkets,China,theUnitedStates,andIndia,willaccountfor51-57%ofglobalsolardemand,decliningfromthe58%projectedin2023.Eachofthesecountriesisexpectedtoinstallmorethan20GWin2024,withChinaleadingat161GW,followedbytheUSAat42.1GW,andIndiaat24.5GW.In2027,thesethreecountriesareforecastedtoreachacombinedinstallationcapacityof313GW,withChinabeingtheonlycountrysurpassingtheannualinstallationlevelof200GW,theUSexceeding60GW,andIndiaremainingslightlybelow40GW.Germanyistheonlyothercountrygloballyinstallingmorethan20GWin2026,closelyfollowedbySpainat18.1GW.TheChinesegovernment’ssolarstrategyforthemajorityoftheGMOforecastperioduntil2027isbasedonits14thFYP(2021-2025).ThisFive-YearPlanaimsfor50%growthinrenewableenergygeneration-from2.2trillionkWhin2020to3.3trillionkWhin2025,strivesfora2025renewableelectricityconsumptionshareof33%,upfrom28.8%in2020,andtargetsover50%ofChina’sincrementalelectricityandenergyconsumptiontobesourcedfromrenewablesbetween2021and2025.TheMediumScenarioanticipatesthattheChinesePVmarketwillgrowto170GWin2025,reach189GWin2026,andfurtherincreasedemandto211GWin2027.RegardlessoftheongoingdiscussionssurroundingimporttariffsandtheWRO,theUnitedStatesispoisedtocontinueitssolargrowthtrajectoryinthecomingyears.ThemomentumthattheIRAisbuildingforcleanenergyexpansionismassiveandtheprolongationoftheInvestmentTaxCredituntil2032willtransformthecountry’sfutureenergydevelopment.AccordingtoourMediumScenario,theUSisprojectedtogrowfrom42.1GWin2024to63.5GWin2027.Eveninourworst-casescenario,westillanticipateagrowthto41.3GWby2027,andupto85.7GWinthemostoptimisticcase.Indiafacedasetbackinmissingits100GW(AC)NationalTargetbytheendof2022.However,intheupcomingyears,Indiawillbefullyfocusedonmeetingits500GWofinstalledrenewablecapacity,outofwhich280GWarefromsolarpower.Wepredictthat1Globalsolarmarket-Prospects2023-2027/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202732GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202733Lessthanadecadesinceitsurpassedthe100GWmilestonein2012,theworld’stotaloperatingon-gridsolarcapacityhasexceeded1TWinearlyQ2/2022.AccordingtoourMediumScenario,itisprojectedtocomfortablycrossthe2TWlandmarkinearly2025(Fig.18).ThecurrentperiodofstrongpricesreductionforrawmaterialsandPVproductswillboostdemandforsolarpower.ConcernsaboutenergysecurityresultingfromtheRussianwaragainstUkrainewillfurtherexpeditetheglobalshifttowardssolarenergy.ThemilestonesforglobalinstalledPVgenerationcapacityoverthenextfiveyearsareprojectedasfollows:1.5TWin2023,1.9TWin2024,2.4TWin2025,2.9TWin2026,and3.5TWin2027.Underoptimalconditions,thePVfleetcouldpassthe2TWlevelalreadyin2024,andreachupto3.9TWby2027.UnderourMediumandHighScenarios,theglobaloperatingsolarPVfleetalmostdoublesevery3years.Thetop20marketswiththehighest5-yearinstallationpotentialonlyseesmallchangescomparedtothepreviousedition(seeFig.19).Thetopfourmarkets,namelyChina,theUS,India,andGermany,remaininthesameorder,whiletheabsoluteadditionsaresubstantiallyhigher.ItisnoteworthythatintheMediumScenario,thetop3countriesarestilltheonlyonesexpectedtoinstallover100GWeach.Chinaisleadingat873GW(+367GWcomparedto2022edition),followedbytheUSat252GW(+63Indiawilladd24.5GWin2024and28.4GWin2025andupto38.3GWin2027.Whiletheutility-scalesectorwillcontinuetobetheprimarydriverofsolargrowthinIndia,thereisanexpectationthatthedistributedsegment,whichplayedthekeyroleinfallingshortofthe2022target,willtransitionawayfromitsnichestatusinthemediumtolong-term.Lookingaheadfrom2024to2027,therewillbearedistributionofmarketsharesamongdifferentregions.Aftergainingsignificantmarketsharein2023reaching41%,Chinaisexpectedtoreverttoits2020levelwitha34%annualinstallationsharein2027.TheAmericaswillexperienceaslightdecline,droppingfrom17%in2023to16%in2027.Ontheotherhand,APACexcludingChina,MEA,andEuropeareallexpectedtogainsomemarketsharesinthe2023-2027period.TheAPACregionwillexperiencethelargestgain,growingfrom18%to22%,reflectingthedevelopmentofsolarinmanycountriesoutsideChina.TheMEAregionshallgain3percentagepointsfrom5%to8%drivenbymajorprojectsintheMiddleEastandSaudiArabia’scommitmenttoachievingits‘40GWby2030’target.Europe’sgrowthwillrelyontheEuropeanUnion’seffortstoenhanceits2030renewabletargetsandfurtherreducedependenceonRussianenergyimportsthroughtheREPowerEUplan.Europeisexpectedtoreacha19%shareofglobalsolar,byadding120GWin2027.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGURE18GLOBALTOTALSOLARPVMARKETSCENARIOS2023-202705001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500GWHistoricaldataLowScenarioHighScenarioMediumScenario202220232024202520262027201820192020202126%29%24%22%21%3,5322,3812,9151,1771,9191,518GW),andIndiaat145GW(+29GW).Thenumberofcountriesexpectedtoaddatleast20GWinthenextfiveyearsisthesameaslastyear:12,withItalypushingSouthKoreaoutofthelist.However,accordingtotheMediumScenario,allthetop20marketsareprojectedtoinstallatleast10GWeachfrom2023to2027.Anincreasefromlastyearwhenonly17marketswereanticipatedtoreachthat1Globalsolarmarket-Prospects2023-2027/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202734FIGURE19TOP20MARKETSSOLARPVADDITIONS2023-2027SaudiArabiaUKTürkiyeGreeceChileUAESouthKoreaTaiwanFranceNetherlandsItalyPolandJapanAustraliaBrazilSpainGermanyIndiaUSChinaGW02004006008001,0001,200HighScenarioMediumScenarioLowScenario1,008315190111915956453847283719221820181716188732521458874444039292825251716151414141312764179112746033313222232021111211101010109©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023threshold.Therangeofnewcapacityadditionsvarieswidelywithinthisgroup,from873GWinChinato12GWinSaudiArabia,whichisagainsignificantlyhigherthanthepreviousyear’sedition.Themembersofthetop20listareverysimilartolastyear’s,withonlyonenotablesubstitution:theUKiscomingbackatthe19thposition,replacingVietnam,whichstoodatthe16thpositionlastyear.Toenterthetop20marketprospects,capacityvolumesofatleastGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202735Country2022Totalcapacity(MW)By2027TotalcapacityMediumScenario(MW)2023-2027Newcapacity(MW)2023-2027Compoundannualgrowthrate(%)PoliticalsupportprospectsChina402,9451,275,725872,78026%UnitedStates140,773393,268252,49523%India77,548222,117144,56923%Germany67,964155,65187,68718%Spain27,406101,62174,21530%Brazil24,02368,02844,00523%Australia31,02471,20840,18418%Japan84,136122,97638,8408%Poland12,18940,81128,62227%Italy24,61053,03328,42317%Netherlands18,05142,97724,92619%France15,71040,40024,69021%Taiwan9,74926,27516,52622%SouthKorea24,28440,47616,19211%UAE3,68218,38514,70338%Chile6,51420,92114,40726%Greece5,52419,67114,14729%Türkiye9,52523,11113,58619%UnitedKingdom15,91228,88112,96913%SaudiArabia1,23613,27912,04361%FIGURE20TOPSOLARPVMARKETS’PROSPECTS12GWarenowrequired,comparedto8GWinthepreviousyear.IntheHighScenario,Chinaisexpectedtoinstall1,008GW,breakingthe1TWlevel.UndertheMediumScenario,Chinawillinstallmorecapacitythanthe16followingcountries,andmorethan3timeswhattheUnitedStatesisprojectedtoinstallinthe2023-2027period.Altogether,thetop20marketsareexpectedtogrid-connect1.8TWor83%ofthetotal,asubstantialincreasefromourGMO2022,whenweestimatedthegrouptoinstall1.2TWoverthecomingfiveyears(2022-2026),andthe0.9TWbetween2021-2025inourGMO2021.UndertheLowScenario,thetop20marketsareforecastedtoadd1.5TW,whileintheHighScenariotheynowsurpassthe2TWlevelwith2.2TWexpectedtobebroughtonlineby2027.Politiciansarefacingincreasingpressuretoaddresstheclimatecrisis,assevereweathereventsbecomemorefrequentandaffectlargerswathesofthepopulationworldwide.Underthisperspective,the1TWsolartargetbytheG7isapoliticalacknowledgmentoftheparamountrolethatsolarplaysinreducingglobalemissions.Solarenergyisbeingrecognisednotonlyforitspotentialtocombatclimatechange,butalsoforitsabilitytocreatelocaljobopportunitiesandensureenergysecurity.Withinthiscontext,ourweatherforecastforthetop20countriespredictsanincreasinglybrighterfuture,withonlythreecountriesfacingsomecloudsonthehorizon,andwithallbutoneexpectedtoexperiencedouble-digitannualgrowthrates(Fig.20).Whilethemajorityofthecountriesinthislistexpectscompoundannualgrowthrates(CAGRs)around20%orabove,aslastyear,thehighest5-yeargrowthrateisexpectedinSaudiArabia,withanimpressive61%CAGR.Whilethecountry’scurrentsolarcapacityisstillsmall,thecompletionofnumerousGW-scaleprojectswillbeaturnaroundpointandisexpectedtopavethewayforSaudiArabia’sambitiousgoalofreaching40GWby2030.Attheotherendofthespectrum,JapanstandsoutwitharelativelylowCAGRofonly8%,thesameaslastyear,makingittheonlycountryinthetop20withasingle-digitgrowthrate.Still,Japanisamaturesolarmarket,ranked5thgloballyintermsofinstalledcapacitypercapita,anditsgrowthprojectionsforthenextfiveyearsindicatetheadditionofapproximately39GWintheMediumScenario.TürkiyeandBrazilaretheonlytwocountrieswithuncertainprospects.InthecaseofTürkiye,althoughthegovernmentsupportssolardeploymentthroughauctionsandnet-meteringpolicies,theoverallfinancialsituationofthecountrycouldprovechallenging.Türkiyehasbeengrapplingwithveryhighinflationrates,whichcanmakeprojectfinancingdifficult.InBrazil,theintroductionofagridtarifffornet-meteringconditionsatthebeginningof2023has1Globalsolarmarket-Prospects2023-2027/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-20273650MWMargaritisolarfarm,Greece.©ABOWind/PanosKanesoulisloweredtheattractivenessofthisveryappealingscheme.WhileBrazilwitnessedasurgeinsolarinstallationsin2022thatisexpectedtocontinuein2023untilprojectsarecompleted,aslowerpaceofinstallationsisanticipatedfrom2024onwards.Despitethesechallenges,BrazilandTürkiyeareexpectingaCAGRof23%and19%respectivelyandshouldbringonlineover44GWand14GWeach.SouthKoreaistheonlycountryforwhichweforecastrealbadweatherconditionsforitssolarsector.Thecountry’sdecisiontoprioritisetheexpansionofitsnuclearcapacitytothedetrimentofrenewableshascomeattheexpenseofsolardeployment.SouthKoreahasreduceditsoverallrenewableenergytargetfrom30.2%to21.6%by2030.Asaresult,thecountryhasdroppedfromthe9thpositiontothe14thpositionintherankings.ItsCAGRhasdecreasedfrom17%to11%,andtheprojectedinstallationsforthenext5yearshavedecreasedfrom26.3GWto16.2GW.Overall,ourweatherforecastissunniercomparedtolastyear.Asasurprisetosome,theUnitedStateshadacloudyforecastbecauseofpotentialtariffsresultingfromtheanti-circumventioninvestigationsandtheWRO,whichmaterialisedintolowerinstallationsin2022.However,theforecastforthecountryisnowfullybrightaftertheintroductionoftheIRA,whichisexpectedtoturbochargerenewabledeploymentinthecountry.Italywasalsoundercloudslastyear,butthepositivelegislativeevolutionsregardingcommercialsystemsandthestrongdeploymentofthefirsthalfin2023isconfirmingourviewstowardtherenaissanceoftheItalianmarket–wenowassume28GWofnewinstallationsoverthecoming5years,comparedto13GWinthelastedition.Butastheconditionsoftheverygenerousincentiveforresidentialsystemshaveworsened,itremainstobeseenifthissunnypicturecanbemaintainednextyear.SEGMENTS2023–2027Boththerooftopandutility-scalesegmentsexperiencedstronggrowthin2022.Theenergycrisisplayeditsroleandthereactionfromcitizenswasimmediate:therooftopmarketincreasedby50%in2022,withinstallationsreaching118GW,from79GWtheyearbefore.Theincreasingadoptionofsolarbyresidentialandcommercialsectorsdemonstratesastronginteresttogenerateandself-consumeelectricityandreducedependenceonthegrid,therebymitigatingtheimpactofpowerpricefluctuationscausedprimarilybyfossilfuelsbutalsonuclear,asanagingfleetintheworld’sleadingatomicpowernationFranceresultedinmanyofthesepowerplantshadtobetakenoff-gridformaintenancein2022.Atthesametime,utility-scalesolarPVinstallationsgrewby41%toreach121GW,despitehighmodulepricesin2021and2022.Large-scalesystemsremainedthemaincontributortothetotalcapacity,butthesharesofutilityandrooftopsolarhavenotbeenthisclosetoeachinthreeyears;utility-scalecontributedto50.5%oftotalinstallationsandrooftopcontributedto49.5%.Thegrowthofutility-scalesolarcouldhavebeenhigherifitwerenotforthelingeringeffectsofCOVID-19onsupplychainsandtheincreaseinpricesofPVcomponents.Utility-scaledevelopersaremoresensitivetopricefluctuationsthanhouseholdsfortwomainreasons.First,theimpactofcomponentpriceincreasesismorepronouncedforlargerinstallationsduetotheirlargerscale,whichmuchbetterabsorbinstallationcost.Second,utility-scaleprojectsaretypicallydrivenbycommercialpurposesandfinancialgains,makingcostincreasessignificantlyaffecttheiroverallfinancialviability.Bycontrast,whileresidentialcustomersarealsoseekingfinancialbenefitsfromsolarinstallations,theydonotnecessarilyrelyontheirresidentialsystemstoestablishsucharobustbusinesscase.Ground-mountsystemshavetocompeteinauctionsandwholesalemarketsatcompletelydifferentpricelevels.Thegrowthoftherooftopsegmentvariedacrossdifferentcountries.Amongthetop20solarmarkets,onlyAustralia,SouthKorea,andJapaninstalledlessrooftopsthantheyearbefore.Australiaexperiencedthesharpestdecline,with2.3GWlessthan2021(-46%),SouthKoreainstalled1.1GWlessin2021(-33%)andJapan’srooftopsectordecreasedbylessthan0.5GW(-9%).Alltheotherlargestmarketsexperiencedstronggrowth.ThemostimpressiveprogresscouldbewitnessedinBrazil,whichaddedanadditional5.3GW.Thisgiant193%growthratefrom2021waspushedbytherushofinstallationsthatsoughttobenefitforthegenerousconditionsofthenet-meteringschemebeforetherulechangesin2023.TwoMediterraneancountries,ItalyandSpain,alsomadesignificantprogress.Theirrooftopmarketsincreasedby127%and105%respectively.Inbothcountries,theimprovementresultedfrompolicysupport,ontopoftheenergycrisisGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202737effect.InItaly,theSuperbonushaspushedresidentialinstallations,whileSpainhasbeenworkingonimprovingitsoverallframeworkforself-consumptionsincetheremovaloftheso-called‘SunTax’.Othernotablemarketsareimprovingwithannualgrowthratesover50%:Denmark,India,Austria,China,Greece,andSouthAfrica.Again,themajorinfluencerherewasChina,where51.1GW,representing54%ofits2022installationwererooftopsystems,up29.1GWfromits2021rooftopinstallationsinabsoluteterms.In2023,therooftopsegmentisexpectedtofurtherincreaseto159GW,a35%growthfrom2022.Inthefollowingyears,asenergypricesareexpectedtoreturntolowerlevels–adevelopmentwecouldalreadyseeinrecentmonths,weexpectaslightslowdowninthegrowthrateofrooftops,withannuallevelsrangingfrom13%to15%.Theannualinstalledrooftopcapacityisforecastedtoincreaseto183GWin2024,andupto268GWin2027inourMediumScenario,a126%growthfrom2022levels.Theintroductionofsolarmandatesinseveralcountries,however,couldprovideanewboosttotherooftopmarket,asdoestheelectrificationofheatingsector,withseveralcountriespushingheatpumpstodecarboniseheat.In2022,amongthetop20markets,onlyonecountrymanagedtodoubleitslarge-scaleinstallationsfromthepreviousyear:Italy.Thecountrystruggledin2021withlessthan100MWinstalledbutthesegmentexperiencedanimpressive+500%growthin2022toreach571MWofannualinstalledcapacity.Prospectsareverybrightasweareexpectingthissegmenttodoublein2023and2024aswell.Onthelowerend,theUnitedStates’sutility-scalesegmentexperienceda18%decreaseinannualinstallationsin2022,reflectingthedifferenttradeandsupplystrugglesthecountryisgoingthrough.Nevertheless,boostedbythesupportofferedbytheIRA,theUSlarge-scalesegmentisanticipatedtogrowstronglyandtoreach27.3GWin2023,from13.8GWin2022.Thegrowthisexpectedtocontinueandreach46.9GWin2027,remainingthesecondlargestutility-scalemarketintheworldafterChina.Acrosstheglobe,theutility-scalesegmentisforecastedtoreach182GWin2023,a51%growthrateasmodulepricesareabouttoreachnewrecordlevellowssoon.Theforecastfor2024estimatesutility-scaleinstallationstoreach218GW.Overthefollowingyearsuntil2027,theshareofutility-scale1Globalsolarmarket-Segments2023-2027/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202738FIGURE21SOLARPVROOFTOPANDUTILITY-SCALESEGMENTSSCENARIOS2023-2027005050100100150150200200250250300300350350400400GWGWHistoricalMediumScenario202620262027202720222022202320232024202420252025118121349268RooftopsolarUtility-scalesolar©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023installationsispredictedtograduallyincrease,representingalmost350GWgloballyandmakingupapproximately57%ofthetotalannualinstalledcapacity.Verylarge-scaleground-mountedpowerplants,especiallythoserelatedtogreenhydrogenproduction,arelikelytocontributetothistrendinthelatterhalfofthedecade.However,recentfactorssuchashighelectricitypricesandthewarinUkrainehaveledtoashiftinplans,withdistributedsolarseenasameanstoenhanceenergyindependence.TheEU-27region,inparticular,needsarapidresponsetocompensateforthereductioninRussiangasimports.Whileutility-scalesolarhasshownresilienceduringthepandemic,rooftopinstallationscanprovideamoreimmediatecontribution,especiallygiventhelongerinstallationtimeforutility-scaleprojects.That’swhytheIEAhadalreadyaskedina10-PointsPlantoreduceEUrelianceonRussiangasinMarch2022,thatrenewables,andinparticularrooftopsolar,areneededtobringdowngasusage,andsuggestedafinancialsupportprogrammeforPVrooftopinstallations.Althoughthefear-drivenrunonrooftopsolarseemsoverforthemomentassummerisabouttostart,theIEAhasalreadywarnedinarecentreportonhowtheEUcanavoidgasshortagesin2023that60GWofsolarwouldbeneeded–morethananticipatedinourMediumScenario–togetsafelythroughthenextwinter.Theyalsopointedatfast-trackingpermittingforrenewablepowerplantsandanincreaseofauctions.DistributedsolarisexpectedtoremainthemajorpillaroftheEU-27forthenexttwoyears.Additionally,residentialandcommercialpowerconsumersareevolvingintoprosumers,solarpanelsarebecomingintegralbuildingmaterials,andsmartcitiesareembracingsmall-scaledistributedsolarcombinedwithstorageanddigitalsolutions.Severalsub-nationalactorshavefollowedCalifornia’sexampleofmandatingsolarinstallationsinnew-buildhomes,andGermanyhasestablishedrooftopPVmandatesinvariousregions.Consequently,theforecastforrooftopsolardevelopmentisoptimistic,withtherooftopsegmentprojectedtomaintainastableshareofaround47%until2023.Inthelongerterm,startingfrom2024,rooftopsolarmayslightlydecreaseto43%aspermittingissuesforutility-scalewillhavebeenbettermanagedanditwillbenefitfromlowerproductpricesanditsincreasingcostadvantageoveritscentralisedfossilandnuclearpowergenerationpeers.However,eventhoughlarge-scalesolar’ssharewillincreaseto57%in2027,upfrom51%in2022,inabsolutetermstherooftopsolarmarketisexpectedtoexpandsignificantly,reaching268GWin2027from118GWin2022.CONCLUSIONSTheGMO2023reportpresentsanevenmoreoptimisticoutlookcomparedtotheGMO2022projections,whichwerepublishedduringatimeofmuchhigheruncertaintycausedbythebeginningoftheRussianwaragainstUkraineaswellassupplychaindisruptionsandhighproductpricesaffectingthesolarindustry.Similartothepreviousyear’sGlobalMarketOutlook,thegrowthratepredictedinthisyear’sreportislargercomparedtothepreviousedition’sprojections.For2023,weforeseeadeploymentratethatis33%higherthanwhatwepredictedintheGMO2022,reflectingtheimprovedsituationonproductavailabilityandPVprices.Theglobalenergycrisisin2022hasalsodramaticallyincreasedpolicymakers’awarenessaboutthenecessitytodeveloplocalrenewablepowergenerationcapacities,notonlyforclimatereasons,butalsoforenergysecurityandpricevolatilityreasons;andsolarhasbeenveryhighintherankingsbecauseofitsunmatchedversatility.OperatingsolarpowercapacityhasreachedtheTW-scalein2022,anditlookslikeitiswellonitswaytoanannualTWlevelby2030.Ourexpectationsfor2024havebeenfurtherincreasedby42%,reflectingourgrowingconfidenceinsupplyanddemandofthesector.Additionally,ourMediumScenariooutlookfor2025of432GWis47%higherandthe2026numberof534GWeven54%highercomparedtotheGMO2022report.Intermsofinstalledcapacityfor2023,thisedition’sforecastsurpassesthepreviousyear’s256GWprojectionby85GW,nowexpectingamarketof341GW.Lookingoneeditionbackward,themilestoneof300GWwasonlyanticipatedtobesurpassedin2025.Wenowbelievethatalreadyin2024the400GWannualinstallationmarkwillbereached.Toputnumbersintoperspective,justsixyearsagoin2017,thetotalinstalledglobalsolarpowergenerationcapacitywasatthislevel.GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202739Ourgrowingoptimismisrootedinsolar’snewpositionasakeyactoronthegeopoliticalenergymap.Solar’sversatilitysetsitselfapartfromotherpowergenerationsources,enablingitsdeploymentinvariousformssuchascentralisedutility-scalepowerplants,includinginnovativevariationslikeagri-PVandfloatingsolar;distributedcommercialandresidentialrooftops,aswellasquicklyadvancingapplicationsinthebuiltenvironmentlikebuilding-integratedsystems,plug-insolarsystems,carparksaswellasoff-gridsolutions,andmobilepowerapplications.Furthermore,whencombinedwithotherrenewablesandstorage,todayhybridsolarpowerplantscanprovide24/7power–andofferancillaryservicesinpowermarkets.Ifcombinedwithheatpumps,solarpoweralsoenableselectrificationanddecarbonisationoftheheatingandtransportsector,atthesameempoweringconsumersatthelocallevel,somethingnootherpowergenerationtechnologyiscapableof.Despitetemporaryproductpriceincreasesstemmingfromthesupplychainissueduringthepandemic,solarstillsurpassedfossilfuelsandnuclearenergyinunsubsidisedinvestmentcasesthroughout2022.Thiscostadvantageisexpectedtoimproveagainnowthatissuesinproductsupplyandlogisticshavebeenlargelyovercome.TheInternationalEnergyAgencyexpectsabout380billionUSDwillbeinvestedintosolarin2023,leavingbehindinvestmentinoilforthefirsttime.3Eachcrisisisunique,andalthoughtheCOVID-19pandemichasresultedinsetbacksinthebattleagainstclimatechange,therecentenergycrisishasyieldedtheoppositeoutcome.Thespotlighthaslargelyshiftedtowardsrenewableenergysources,andsolarasitsmainpillar,toreducedependenceonfossilfuels,themajoritywhichisownedbyafewcountries.Instead,solarpowerisfreelyaccessible,andthemeanstodothatcanbeevenmanufacturedlocallyifaregionoracountryreallywantsit–andinadditiontogloballeaderChina,theUSnowdoes,asthehistoricIRAlegislationshows,forexample.However,despitesolarpower’simpressivenearly50%growthratein2022,againsurpassingallotherpowergenerationtechnologies,itsshareintheglobalpoweroutputcurrentlystandsatonly4.5%.Itneedsmoreambitiousapproachesaroundtheworldtoharvestthegiganticpotentialofpowermuchfasterastime’srunningoutintheracetomeettheParisClimateAgreement.1Globalsolarmarket-Conclusions/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202740©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGURE22COMPARISONMEDIUMSCENARIOGMO2023VSPREVIOUSGMOEDITIONSGW2027202220232024202520261691802002661681842393142032252834622282564013475346172393410100200300400500600700GMO2021GMO2020GMO2019GMO2022GMO20233IEA(2023),WorldEnergyInvestment2023.PVSolutionsEf昀cientoperation&installationofallPVsystemsWhetheryouaredesigningPVsystemsontheroof,groundorevenonwater,wearethepartneratyourside:•Combinerboxesforconnection,protectionandcombinationofPVstrings•Monitoringandcommunicationofstringperformanceandcomponentstatus•Completeportfolioofinstallationaccessories•GlobalfootprintbutlocalisedproductionMoreinformationonourwebsite:www.weidmueller.com/pv-solutionsConvinceyourselffromourreferenceprojects:www.weidmueller.com/pv-referencesGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202742Focus:TheSoutheastAsiansolarmarket2Sandakan,Sabah,Malaysia.©BayWar.e.IntroductionTheSoutheastAsia3(SEA)regionhaswitnessedtremendousgrowthinrenewableenergydeployment,drivenbysupportivepolicies,increasedinvestments,andtechnologicaladvancements.Solarenergy,inparticular,hasemergedasakeyplayerintheregionalenergylandscape,withcountrieslikeVietnam,Malaysia,andthePhilippinesleadingthecharge.ItsgrowthhasbeendrivenbyinternationalcommitmentstoreducegreenhousegasemissionsundertheParisAgreementandfurtheracceleratedbyunpredictablefossilfuelpricesthataresusceptibletoexternalshocks.Moreover,governmentsinSEAofferedanextrapushbysettingambitiousrenewableenergytargets.AsshowninFigure23,theleadingSEAcountriesaimtosubstantiallyincreasetheshareofrenewablesintheirenergymixforthenextdecade.3TheSEAsiaregioncontains11countries:Brunei,Burma(Myanmar),Cambodia,Timor-Leste,Indonesia,Laos,Malaysia,thePhilippines,Singapore,ThailandandVietnam.FIGURE23RESSHARESAND2030RESTARGETSINLEADINGSEACOUNTRIES0510152025303540%VietnamIndonesiaMalaysiaPhilippinesThailand2030REStarget2020RESshare18%18%21%14%28%29%20%35%26%30%©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202743Asof2022,theoperatingsolarcapacityintheSEAregionwasestimatedtobenearly32GW,witha12%increaseoverthepreviousyear(Figure24).Alargebulkofthiscapacitywasinstalledinasingleyear,2020,whenveryfavourablepolicyconditionsskyrocketedcapacityadditionsintheregion’ssolarleader,Vietnam.SincetheabruptendofVietnam’sfeed-intariffregime,annualinstallationsintheregionhavedecreasedsignificantly,witha68%marketcontractionto4.2GWin2021.In2022,significantsolargrowthtookplaceinmostofthecountriesacrosstheregion,butthatwasnotenoughtomakeupfortheworsenedmarketconditionsinVietnam.Asaresult,afurther19%decreasewasobserved,bringingnewlyinstalledcapacityto3.4GW.Eventhoughthemarketshrunkoverthelasttwoyears,positivegrowthprospectscanbeseen,consideringthatnewcapacityiswelldistributedacrossdifferentcountriesandtheregionalmarketnolongerdependsononesinglecontributor.Therapidgrowthinsolarcapacitycanbeattributedtoseveralfactors,includingfavourablepolicyframeworks,attractivefinancialincentives,anddecliningtechnologycosts.Governmentshaveintroducedfeed-intariffs,taxincentives,andothersupportmechanismstoencourageinvestmentinsolarenergyprojects.Inaddition,thecostofsolartechnologyhasdeclinedsignificantly,makingsolarpowermorecompetitivecomparedtotraditionalenergysources.Furthermore,globaltrendssuchastheclimatecrisis,theCOVID-19pandemic,supplychainbottlenecks,andtradetensionshavehighlightedtheneedforamoreresilientandsustainableenergysystem,spurringcountriestoacceleratetheirrenewableenergydevelopment.Manygovernmentshaveannouncedstimuluspackagesandgreenrecoveryplansthatprioritiserenewableenergyinvestment,includingsolarenergy.Thishasfurthercontributedtothegrowthofsolarcapacityintheregion.AnothercontributingfactoristheincreasingdemandforelectricityintheSEAregion,drivenbyrapidurbanisation,industrialisation,andpopulationgrowth.Solarenergyhasemergedasaviablesolutiontomeetthisgrowingdemand,asitcanbedeployedrelativelyquicklyandhasminimalenvironmentalimpactscomparedtoconventionalenergysources.Asaresult,SEAcountrieshavebeguntointegratesolarpowerintotheirenergypoliciesandlong-termenergyplans.FIGURE24SOUTHEASTASIAANNUALANDCUMULATIVESOLARPVCAPACITY2017-202205101520253035GW202120222017201820192020Annual4.55.111.124.228.431.80.70.66.013.14.23.4Cumulative©SOLARPOWEREUROPE20232Focus:TheSoutheastAsiansolarmarket/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202744Lastly,theSEAregion’sabundantsolarresourceshavealsoplayedasignificantroleinthegrowthofsolarcapacity.DepictedinFigure25,theregionhasanaveragesolarirradianceofapproximately5kWh/m2/day,whichindicatestheimmensepotentialforharnessingsolarenergytomeetenergyneeds.Thispotential,coupledwiththedecliningcostsofsolartechnologyandsupportivegovernmentpolicies,hassetthestageforthecontinuedexpansionofsolarcapacity.Utility-Scale,Rooftop,andFloatingSolarUtility-scalesolarenergyhasbeentheprimarydriverofsolarcapacitygrowthintheSEAregion,withlarge-scalesolarfarmsbeingdevelopedincountriessuchasVietnam,Indonesia,andMalaysia.Theseprojects,oftensupportedbygovernmentincentivesandpublic-privatepartnerships,havecontributedtotherapidexpansionofsolarenergyintheregion.Large-scalesolarprojectsareusuallysupportedthroughauctionsinvolvingacompetitivebiddingprocesswherebywinningprojectsareofferedlong-termPPAcontracts.Inmorerecenttimes,corporatePPAsbetweenprivateoff-takersandrenewableenergyproducershavealsoemerged.InVietnam,supporttolarge-scalesolarhasnotbeenthroughauctions,butratherwithattractiveanduncappedfeed-intariffs,whichledtotherecordgrowthregisteredin2019and2020.Vietnam’sDauTiengSolarPowerPlant,withacapacityof420MW,isthelargestsolarpowerfacilityinSoutheastAsia.RooftopsolarenergyhasalsogainedmomentumintheSEAregion,drivenbytheincreasingdemandforclean,decentralisedenergysolutionsandthedecliningcostsofsolartechnology.CountriessuchasFIGURE25SOUTHEASTASIA'SGLOBALHORIZONTALIRRADIATIONSOURCE:Solargis2019.©SolargisGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202745Malaysia,Indonesia,Thailand,andSingaporehavenet-meteringschemesinplaceandotherincentivestopromoterooftopsolarinstallationsintheresidential,commercial,andindustrialsectors.InthePhilippines,thenet-meteringprogrammehassuccessfullyfacilitatedtheadoptionofrooftopsolarsystems,withover64.2MWofinstalledcapacity.Vietnam’s‘FiT2’feed-intariffregime,validbetweenMayandDecember2020,offeredveryattractiveratesforrooftopsystems,whichwerehigherthantheaverageretailelectricitytariff.Duringthislimitedamountoftime,morethan7GWofrooftopcapacitywasinstalledinthecountry.Inadditiontodirectsupportschemes,othertypesofsupporttorooftopsolarareavailableintheformoffiscalandfinancialincentives,typicallytargetingtheC&Isector.FloatingsolarinstallationshaveemergedasapromisingandinnovativesolutionintheSEAregion,particularlyincountrieswithlimitedlandavailabilityforlarge-scalesolarprojects.Floatingsolarsystemsarelocatedonbodiesofwater,freeingupvaluablelandresourcesandalsoofferingadditionalbenefitssuchasreducedwaterevaporationandimprovedpanelefficiencyduetothecoolingeffectofwater.CountrieslikeThailandandSingaporearealreadyseeingfloatingPVinstallationscomeonline.InthePhilippines,over2GWofinstalledcapacityissettobedevelopedinLagunaLake,SoutheastAsia’sthirdlargestlake,whileinIndonesiaa2.2GWfloatingsolarprojectlocatedinBatamisattheplanningphase.Tocompletethepicture,theintegrationofenergystoragesystems,suchasbatteryenergystorage,isbecomingincreasinglyimportantintheSEAsolarenergylandscape,asithelpstoaddressthevariablenatureofsolarpower.Severalutility-scalesolarprojectsintheregionareincorporatingenergystoragesolutionstooptimisetheirsolarenergyoutput.RegionalPVSupplyChainTrendsThePVvaluechainintheSEAregionhasexperiencedsignificantgrowthanddiversificationinrecentyearsandseveraltrendshaveemerged,continuingtoshapetheregionalPVsupplychainlandscape.TheSEAregionhaswitnessedtheriseofdomesticPVmanufacturingcapabilitiestomeetthegrowingdemandforsolar.CountriessuchasMalaysia,Thailand,andVietnamhaveemergedasimportantplayersintheglobalPVmanufacturingmarket,particularlyintheproductionofsolarcellsandmodules.InaglobalcellmarketdominatedbyChina(80%),SoutheastAsiaandSouthKoreaaccountfor18%oftheworldwideproductioncapacity,withtheremaining2%producedelsewhere.Thesecountrieshaveattractedinvestmentsfrombothlocalandglobalsolarcompanies,boostingtheirPVmanufacturingcapacityandcreatingjobsinthesector.ThePVsupplychainintheregionhasbecomemoreverticallyintegrated,ascompaniesseektooptimisetheiroperationsandreducecosts.Thisintegrationincludestheentirevaluechain,fromtheproductionofrawmaterialssuchaspolysilicon,tothemanufacturingofsolarcellsandmodules,andthedevelopmentofsolarprojects.Verticalintegrationallowscompaniestohavebettercontroloverthequality,cost,andsupplyoftheirproducts,enhancingtheircompetitivenessintheglobalsolarmarket.TheSEAPVsupplychainhasseenincreasedcollaborationandcooperationbetweencountriesintheregion,aswellasbetweenSEAcountriesandexternalpartners.Thiscollaborationhastakenvariousforms,includingjointventures,technologytransfers,andknowledgeexchangeprograms.Forinstance,theASEAN-Indiainitiativeaimstofacilitatetheexchangeofrenewableenergy,includingsolarpower,betweenSEAcountriesandIndia.TherehasbeenagrowingfocusonsustainabilityandenvironmentalconsiderationswithinthePVsupplychainintheSEAregion.CompaniesareincreasinglyadoptingmeasurestominimisetheenvironmentalimpactofPVmanufacturingprocesses,suchasreducingwaste,improvingenergyefficiency,andadoptingcirculareconomyprinciples.GovernmentsintheregionarealsoimplementingpoliciesandregulationstopromotesustainablePVsupplychainpractices,suchastheMalaysianSustainableEnergyDevelopmentAuthority’s(SEDA)guidelinesforsustainablesolarmanufacturing.Notably,theSEAsolarPVsupplychainhasbeeninfluencedbytheglobaltradedynamicsinthesolarmarket,particularlythetradetensionsbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStates.ThesetensionshaveledtoshiftsintheglobalsolarPVsupplychain,withsomecompaniesrelocatingtheirmanufacturingfacilitiestoSEAcountriestocircumventtradebarriers.In2022,theUnitedStatesgovernmentannouncedtheintentiontointroduceanti-circumventiontariffsontheimportofcellsandmodulesfromCambodia,Malaysia,ThailandandVietnam,asameasuretosupportitslocalmanufacturingindustry.However,thetariffswillonlyenterintoforceinJune2024,asrecentlyconfirmedbyPresidentBiden.Overall,theregionalPVsupplychainintheSEAregionhasevolvedrapidlyinresponsetothegrowingsolarenergymarket,withcountriesintheregionemergingasimportantplayersintheglobalsolarindustry.Thetrendsofdomesticmanufacturing,verticalintegration,regionalcollaboration,sustainability,andglobaltradedynamicswillcontinuetoshapetheSEAPVsupplychaininthecomingyears.KeyRegionalChallengesDespitethesignificantgrowthandpotentialofsolarenergyintheSEAregion,severalchallengesneedtobeaddressedtoensurethecontinuedexpansionandintegrationofsolarpowerintotheenergymix.Gridinfrastructure:Thelimitationsongridinfrastructureposeamajorchallengetolarge-scaledeployment.Manycountriesintheregionhaveaginggridinfrastructure,whichisnotdesignedtoaccommodatethevariableanddecentralisednatureofsolarpower.Thelackofgridcapacity,coupledwithinadequateinterconnectionsbetweencountries,canleadtogridinstabilityandthecurtailmentofsolarpowergeneration.Toenablefurthersolargrowth,theinterconnectioninfrastructureintheregionmustbestrengthened.AnASEANPowerGridblueprintillustratedinFigure26wasdevelopedbytheASEANCentreforEnergytobeginregionaldiscussionsandcross-borderelectricitytransactions.Thisproposedintegratedgridwouldallowhighlevelvariablerenewableenergytobeabsorbedbygrid.Financing:TheavailabilityoffinancingforsolarprojectsremainsachallengeinmanySEAcountries.Despitethedecliningcostsofsolartechnology,thehighinitialcapitalinvestmentrequiredforsolarprojectscanbeabarriertoentryformanyinvestors.AssolarisaCAPEX-intensivetechnology,costofcapitalplaysakeyroleindeterminingtheviabilityofinvestments.Toachievethebolddecarbonisationgoals,substantialfinancial2Focus:TheSoutheastAsiansolarmarket/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202746FIGURE26ASEANINTERCONNECTIONMASTERPLANSTUDYCentralThailandNorthernVietnamCentralVietnamSouthVietnamCentralLaosBruneiSabahSingaporeSarawakNortheastThailandSouthernLaosNorthernThailandCambodiaNorthernLaosSouthernThailandJavaKalimantanSumatraSouthPMalaysiaCentralPMalaysiaNorthPMalaysiaPhilippinesMyanmarEquivalentnodeforeachmembercountryExistingASEANinterconnectionNationaltransmissionlinePlanned/proposedinterconnection©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202747backingmustbeallocatedtoSEAnations.Forinstance,aconsiderableincreaseinrenewableenergyinvestmentsinIndonesiaisnecessary,risingfrom2billionUSD(1.9billionEUR)annuallytoapproximately10billionUSD(9.3billionEUR)peryeartoattainits2030target.Meanwhile,thePhilippinesrequiresatotalinvestmentof28billionUSD(26.1billionEUR)oversevenyearstoaccomplishitsplannedrenewableenergyexpansionby2030.Landavailability:Oneofthegrowingconcernsforthedevelopmentofutility-scalesolarprojectsintheSEAregion,particularlyindenselypopulatedcountriessuchasSingaporeandthePhilippines,islandavailability.Thecompetitionforlandamongvariousindustriesandtheneedtopreserveagriculturallandandnaturalhabitatscanlimitthespaceavailableforlarge-scalesolarinstallations.Thischallengehasledtotheexplorationofalternativesolutions,suchasfloatingsolarsystems,toovercomelandconstraints.Workforce:ThelackofskilledlabourandtechnicalexpertiseinthesolarsectorishinderingthegrowthoftheindustryintheSEAregion.Therapidexpansionofsolarcapacityrequiresaskilledworkforcetodesign,install,andmaintainsolarsystems.However,manycountriesintheregionfaceashortageofskilledlabourinthesolarsector,whichcanaffectthequalityandefficiencyofsolarprojects.PolicyandRegulatoryFramework:PolicyandregulatorychallengescanimpedethedevelopmentofsolarenergyintheSEAregion.Insomecases,thelackofclearandconsistentpolicyframeworks,aswellasbureaucratichurdles,cancreateuncertaintyforinvestorsandhinderthegrowthofthesolarmarket.Furthermore,theintegrationofsolarpowerintoexistingenergypoliciesandregulatoryframeworkscanbechallenging,particularlyincountrieswithheavilysubsidisedfossilfuelindustries.Anoverviewofcountry-specificpolicyandregulatorychallengesisprovidedinthefollowingsection.Inconclusion,addressingthesekeyregionalchallenges–gridinfrastructurelimitations,financingavailability,landconstraints,skilledlabourshortages,andpolicyandregulatorybarriers–willbecriticaltoensuringthecontinuedgrowthandsuccessofthesolarenergysectorintheSEAregion.Prospects2023-2027AftertwoyearsofmarketcontractionfollowingtheregulatorychangesintheVietnamesesolarmarket,newcapacityadditionsintheSEAregionareexpectedtorestarttheirupwardtrendstartingfrom2023.AssolarinvestmentconditionsimproveinthemajorityFIGURE27SOUTHEASTASIAANNUALSOLARPVMARKETSCENARIOS2023-20270GWHistoricaldataLowScenarioHighScenarioMediumScenario5101520252022202320242025202620273.432%59%28%28%13%2.55.76.621.9©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023ofSoutheastAsiancountries,themarketisexpectedtogrow13%to3.8GWthisyear.However,thereisstillalargedegreeofuncertaintyregardingthedirectionthemarketwilltake,sinceseveralcountriesareataturnaroundpointintheirsolarstories.AsmostSEAnationsarestillgearinguptheirsolarprogrammes–suchastheimpressiveGreenEnergyAuctions(GEA)auctionsinthePhilippines,withover9GWofsolarcapacitytobetendered–thequestionishowfastsolardeploymentwilltakeplaceacrosstheregion.InSolarPowerEurope’sHighScenario,severalcountriespasstheGWthresholdofannualadditionsalreadyin2023,bringingregionalinstallationsto5.7GW.Bycontrast,inaLowScenariocharacterisedbyslowuptakeandhurdledbyfinancialandotherchallenges,themarketcontractsfurtherto2.5GW.AnoverviewofthemarketdynamicsinthemostprominentSEAcountriesisprovidedinthefollowingsection.Startingfrom2024,ahighpaceofgrowthisexpectedacrosstheregion.Witha32%growth,annualinstallationsareforecastedtoreach5.1GW.Inthefollowingyears,theresultofsolarprogrammesbecomesmoreapparent,bringingtheregionalmarketto8.1GWin2025(+59%),10.4GWin2026(+28%),and13.3GWin2027underaMediumScenario.Ifkeychallengespersist,installationvolumesin2027couldremainaslowas6.6GW;however,themarketwouldgrowupto21.9GWunderaHighScenario.Top5SEAsolarmarketsSoutheastAsiahasexperiencedexponentialPVcapacityexpansioninthelastyears,drivenbyitslargestmarketsVietnam,Thailand,Malaysia,Philippines,andIndonesia.Together,thesecountrieshost95%oftheregion’soperatingPVcapacity(Figure28).Mostofthesecountrieshavesurpassed1GWofinstalledPVcapacity,whereasothermarketsintheregionlikeCambodia,Laos,MyanmarandSingaporeareexpectedtoreachthatlevelbynolaterthan2027,theendofourforecastingperiod.Anoverviewofthemostrelevantsolarmarketsintheregionisprovidedinthefollowingsection.VIETNAMVietnamhasexperiencedrapidgrowthinsolarenergyadoptioninrecentyears.By2023,thecountryisoneoftheleadingplayersintheSoutheastAsiansolarenergymarket.Vietnam’sinstalledsolarPVcapacityhasgrowndramaticallyinthelastfiveyears,reachingapproximately19GWby2022.Thesubstantialgrowth2Focus:TheSoutheastAsiansolarmarket/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202748FIGURE28SEACUMULATIVESOLARPVCAPACITY2022RestofSEA;5%Thailand;17%Indonesia;1%Philippines;6%Vietnam;61%Malaysia;10%31.8GW2022©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202749canbeattributedtosupportivegovernmentpolicies,attractivefeed-intariffs(FITs),andthecountry’sexcellentsolarresources.Vietnam’ssolarboomtookplacebetween2017and2020,drivenbytheintroductionofaveryattractiveFIT(atinitialrateof0.0935USD/kWh(0.087EUR/kWh),forprojectscompletedbefore30June2019.AsecondFITframeworkwassetfrom1July2019,with0.0709USD/kWh(0.066EUR/kWh)forsolarfarms,0.0769USD/kWh(0.072EUR/kWh)forfloatingsolarand0.0838USD/kWh(0.078EUR/kWh)forrooftopsolarpower,applicabletoprojectscompletedbyendof2020.AsaresultofthesetwoFITframeworks,PVcapacitygrewby16GWinthe2019-2020periodalone.Vietnamslowlybecamethevictimofitsownsuccess.TheshareofsolarpowerinVietnam’spowersystemamountedto24%in2020,amongstthehighesttheworld.Thelackofflexibilitysolutionstointegratelargesolargenerationputfurtherpressureonthegrid.Inrecentyears,themarketcontractedsignificantlyfollowingtheendofFITandrelevantregulatorychanges.Astheprospectofnewon-gridutility-scalesolarprojectseemsdimmed,manyplayersstartedincreasingtheiractivitiesinrooftopprojects.Thelengthynegotiationsoverthecountry’seighthPowerDevelopmentPlan(PDP8)createdapolicyvacuumthatlastedfromtheterminationofthesecondFITinDecember2020untilveryrecently.InMay2023,theVietnamesegovernmentannouncedthepublicationofPDP8,re-establishingregulatoryclarityforrenewableenergy,withdeploymenttargetsuntil2030andalong-termvisionofthecountry’spowersystemto2050.However,PDP8isamixedresultforsolar,withthefocusbeingonbehind-the-meterrooftopsolardeployment,andnonewgrid-connectedsolarparksareenvisioneduntilafter2030.Accordingtothenewplan,theonlysolarprojectsallowedtobeginoperationsandfeedelectricityintothegridaresometransitionalprojectsthatdidnotbeginoperationsintimeforthepreviousFITdeadline.ThisisonlyaportionoftheseveralgigawattsofprojectsthatdidnotmeettheFITdeadlineandhavenotbeenputinoperation–alltherestispendinguntil2030tolimitthestressonthegrid.PDP8outlinesthatnewsolarinstallationsby2030,includingbothgrid-connectedsolarfarmsandsolarforself-consumption,willamountto4.1GW.Theplanalsostatesthatself-consumptionsolarprojectsarepermittedatunlimitedcapacity,providedthattheydonotrequiregridupdates,andcomeatareasonableprice.Thestrategyaimstoensurethat,by2030,50%ofofficebuildingsandresidentialhouseswithrooftopsolardonotsellelectricitytothegridandonlyusepowerforself-consumption.Afterachallengingyearforsolarplayersin2022,thenewlyintroducedregulatoryframeworkwilleventuallybringclaritytothesector.However,severelimitationstonewsolarprojectsfeedingintotheelectricitynetwork,basedonconcernsofgridsaturation,willposeasignificantlimittosolardevelopmentinVietnam.Withthemarketexpectedtofullyrelyontheself-consumptionsegment,itisdifficulttoimaginethatnewsolaradditionswillrepeattherecordyearsin2019and2020,andshouldremainbeloworslightlyabovetheGWrangeinthenextfewyears.THAILANDThailandhasemergedasoneoftheleadingcountriesinSoutheastAsiaforsolarenergydevelopment,drivenbyitsabundantsolarresources,supportivegovernmentpolicies,andgrowingenergydemand.ThailandwasthefirstcountryintheregiontointroduceaFITschemein2007,whichwasrevisedandadjustedseveraltimesinthefollowingyears.In2013,anewFITschemewasadopted,providingdifferentratesdependingonsystemsize,ensuringcontinuedcapacityexpansionduringthedecade.Anticipatingadynamicmarketanddecreasingsolarprices,theEnergyRegulatoryCommissionofThailandlaunchedapilotprojectfocusingonself-consumptionforrooftopsolarinstallations.InMay2019,anet-meteringschemewasintroducedforresidentialrooftopsolarPVsystemswithanupperlimitsystemsizeof10kW.Underthisscheme,compensationisprovidedforexcesselectricitygeneratedoveraten-yearperiod,andagridconnectionfeeischargedtotheinvestor.Thegovernmentaimstoadd100MWofcapacityperyearfrom2019to2027throughthisinitiative.InOctober2022,thegovernmentintroducedanewFITschemeforrenewableenergy,inwhichutility-scalesolarandstorageareamongthetargetedtechnologies.Thiscameasasurprise,sincenomentionoftheschemewasmadeinthecountry’spowerdevelopmentplan.Withcapacityquotasbeingsetforeach2Focus:TheSoutheastAsiansolarmarket/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202750technologyeveryyear,theschemeisexpectedtobelargelyoversubscribed.Solarhasatotalallocatedcapacityof2.6GWbetween2024and2030.ThegovernmentiscurrentlyworkingonitsnewNationalEnergyPlan(NEP),aprogressivestrategyoutliningthecountry’senergysystemtrajectoryuntilthe2040s.Designedtoprovidepolicydirectionforbothgovernmentalagenciesandprivateenterprises,theNEP2022isexpectedtobeapprovedin2023.OneactionplanincludedinthiscomprehensiveplanisthePDP2018Revision1(2018-2037),whichaimstoraisethecountry’stotalgenerationcapacityfrom46GWto77GWby2037.TheforthcomingPDPisdesignedtocovertheperiodfrom2023to2037,supersedingtheexistingplanthatcommencedin2018andunderwentseveralrevisionstoalignwithevolvingenergypolicies.Thisnewpolicynecessitatesthatthecountryrestructuresitsenergymanagementtoreduceitsrelianceonfossilfuels.Undertheupdatedplan,Thailandaspirestoachievea50%renewableenergyshareinelectricitygenerationby2036.Asof2021,renewableenergyaccountedfor11%oftheenergymix.MALAYSIAMalaysiahasbeenactivelypromotingthegrowthofitssolarenergysectortodiversifyitsenergymixandreduceitsrelianceonfossilfuels.Malaysia’ssolarenergylandscapein2023ischaracterisedbyrapidgrowthfuelledbyambitiousrenewableenergytargets,supportivegovernmentpolicies,andsignificantinvestmentsfrombothinternationalanddomesticsources.Intermsofefficiencyandintensity,thecountryaimstoachieve52TWhofelectricitysavingsbetween2016and2025,comparedtoabusiness-as-usualscenario,resultinginan8%reductioninelectricitydemandgrowthbytheendoftheplan.TheintroductionoftheNationalRenewableEnergyPolicyandActionPlanin2011markedasignificantturningpointinMalaysia’ssolarPVdeployment.WithambitioustargetsforrenewableenergyandtheintroductionofasolarFITscheme,thecountry’sPVmarketstartedgainingtraction.ARenewableEnergyFundwasestablishedtofinancetheFITschemethrougha1%to1.6%contributionfromconsumers’electricitybills.Theprogramme,however,wasdiscontinuedin2017andsubstitutedwithanet-meteringscheme(NEM),which,notbeingfinanciallyattractiveatitsstart,resultedinaslowdownofsolargrowth.Inmorerecenttimes,thegovernmentintroducedNEM3.0,aprogramallocatinga500MWquotafrom2021to2023,whichhassupportedsolarexpansion.Themarketadded454MWsolarPVin2020,growingtonewinstallationsof712MWin2022,resultinginatotalinstalledcapacityof3.9GWbyendof2022.Toencouragefurthersolargrowth,thegovernmenthasrolledouttheCorporateGreenPowerProgram,alarge-scalesolarprogramthatallowsprivatesolarpowerproducerstodevelopandoperatesolarfarmsandsellthegreenpowervirtuallytocorporatecustomersviacontractsfordifference.Afirstcome,firstservebasisisrolledoutforan800MWACsubscriptionstartingfrom9May2023untiltheendoftheyear,oruntilitisfullysubscribed.TheMalaysianGovernmentlaunchedin2022itsNationalEnergyPolicy2022-2040,withtheobjectiveofenhancingmacroeconomicresilienceandenergysecurity,achievingsocialequitabilityandaffordability,andensuringenvironmentalsustainability.TheNEPisalivedocumentsubjecttoperiodicreviewseverythreeyearstoensurethatthetargetsareachievableandtokeepinlinewithinternationaldevelopmentintheenergytransitionspace.TheNEPincludesatargetofachieving31%renewableenergyinthecountry’selectricitygenerationmixby2025and40%by2035,comparedtothecurrent23%share.Accordingtothegovernmentplans,another1.2GWofcapacityisneededtoachievetheenergymixof31%REby2025,outofwhichsolarcovers1.1GW.However,accordingtoourestimates,themarketwillgrowtoatotalof6.4GWin2025.PHILIPPINESThePhilippinesoffersacompellinginvestmentopportunityforsolarenergydevelopment.Thisisduetoitsstrategiclocationneartheequator,whichprovidesamplesunlight,oneofthehighestelectricitytariffsglobally,andagovernmentcommitmenttotheParisAgreementinreducingcarbonemissions.Despitechallengesrelatedtothegridandregulatoryimplementationuncertainties,thePhilippinegovernmenthasenactedandcontinuestoadministerpolicyframeworksthataimtopromoteenergysecurity,equity,andsustainability.Asaresult,solarPVhasemergedasakeydriverinthecountry’senergytransition.ThePhilippinesisdeterminedtoadvanceGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2021-202551itsenergypoliciesandtargets,withanemphasisonexpandingaccess,enhancingefficiency,andpromotingrenewableenergysources.Intermsofaccess,thecountry’sgoalistoachievea100%householdelectrificationrateby2022.Regardingefficiencyandintensity,thePhilippinesaimstoreducetheenergygeneratedfromoilproducts,andelectricityconsumption,by2040by5%,comparedtoabusiness-as-usualscenario.ThePhilippinesalsoaimstoreacha10%penetrationrateforelectricvehiclesinroadtransportation,includingmotorcycles,cars,andjeepneys,by2040.Asforrenewables,thePhilippinesiscommittedtoincreasingtherenewableenergyshareinitspowergenerationmixto35%by2030and50%by2040,aswellasimplementinga5%biodieselblendinginitiativestartingin2022throughitsPhilippineEnergyPlan2020-2040.ThePhilippineEnergyPlan2020-2040supportsthecountry’slong-termvision(AmbisyonNatin2040),targetingacleanenergyfuturewithambitiousrenewableenergygoals.Withpeakdemandandelectricitysalesprojectedtoincreasefour-fold,thecountry’stotalinstalledcapacitymustreach95.7GWby2040.TheCleanEnergyScenariorequires92.3GWofgenerationcapacityadditions,withrenewablesaccountingfor80%.Solarenergydrivescapacitygrowthwithatargetinstallationcapacityof18.6GWby2030.ThePhilippineshasseensignificantgrowthovertheyearsinthedeploymentofsolarenergydrivenbythefactorssuchassupportivegovernmentpolicies,technologicaladvancements,andincreasinginvestmentsinthesector.In2016,thePhilippinesachievedasignificantmilestonewiththesolarPVcapacityincreasingto765MWfrom165MW,mainlyduetothedevelopmentoflarge-scalesolarfarms.Bytheendof2019,thecumulativesolarPVcapacityinthePhilippinesreachedapproximately1GW,withthegrowthdrivenbytheexpansionofbothutility-scaleandrooftopsolarprojects.ItisestimatedthatsolarPVtotalcapacityhasgrowntocloseto2GWbytheendof2022.AkeydriverforsolargrowthinthecountryistheRenewablePortfolioStandards(RPS)program,introducedin2017.Thisprogramrulestopromoterenewableenergydevelopment.TheRPS,coupledwithaRenewableEnergyMarket,setsaminimumREproportionforelectricitysales.TheannualrequirementoftheRPSisatleast1%annualincreaseinthecountry’srenewableenergyoutput.InordertorealisticallyachieveitsREStargets,however,thegovernmentdecidedtoincreasetheannualincreasefrom1%to2.52%startingin2023.Investmentruleshavealsobeenamendedtoallow100%foreigncapitalinRESprojects,whileonlyupto40%wasallowedbefore.Lastyear,theEnergyRegulatoryCommissionapprovedthedraftRulesforDistributedEnergyResources(DERs)topromoterenewableenergyandreducedependenceonfossilfuels.Therulesincludeguidelines,interconnectionstandards,andpricingmethods,amongotherprovisions.WiththeDERRules,consumerscansupplementtheirpowersupply,helpingtomitigatetheimpactofrisingfuelpricesonelectricityrates.AdoptedrulesallowDERend-usersusingrenewableenergytoexportupto30%oftheirexcesscapacityandreceivecompensation.LargesolarcapacityvolumesareexpectedtocomeonlineinthecomingyearsthroughtheGEAauctionschemestartedinJune2022,whenGEA-1awarded1.5GWofsolarprojects.Whileitisunclearwhetheralloftheawardedcapacitywillcomeonline,duetolimitedfinancialattractivenessandotherchallenges,thegovernmentismovingforwardwiththenextauctionroundsGEA-2,whereby7.6GWofsolarcapacityisplannedtobeauctionedinJune2023withprojectcompletionexpectedbetween2024and2026.Withanambitioussolartargetof18.6GWby2030andmassiveauctionvolumescurrentlyinthepipeline,Philippines’ssolarPVcapacityisexpectedtoraiseitsgrowthtrajectoryinthenextyears.Itisexpectedthatthecountrywillbecometheregionalmarketleaderbynolaterthan2025.INDONESIAIndonesia,theworld’slargestarchipelago,possessessignificantpotentialforsolarenergydevelopmentduetoitsequatoriallocation,providingabundantsunlightthroughouttheyear.Indonesiaiscommittedtoimplementingprogressiveenergypoliciesandtargets,focusedonexpandingaccess,enhancingefficiency,andpromotingrenewableenergy.Thecountryseekstoincreasetherenewableenergyshareto23%ofprimaryenergysupplyby2025,and31%by2050,andaccomplisha19.6%shareofrenewableenergyin2Focus:TheSoutheastAsiansolarmarket/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202752electricityproductionby2030.TheIndonesiangovernmenthasrecognisedthecriticalroleofrenewableenergyinthecountry’senergytransitionandhassettheseambitioustargetstoincreasetheshareofrenewableenergyinthepowergenerationmixandachieveanet-zerofuture.TheIndonesianregulatoryframeworkencouragesprivatecompaniestoestablishindependentmicrogridutilitiesinremoteareas,creatingopportunitiesinsectorslikesolar,biofuel,waste-to-energy,andelectricvehicles.Solarpower,specificallyrooftopsolarPVtechnology,hasthelargestpotentialcapacityofapproximately200GW.ThegrowthphaseofsolarPVdeploymentinIndonesiabeganin2011,drivenbytheintroductionoffeed-intariffs,net-meteringschemesandotherincentivestopromoterenewableenergydevelopment.Thesepolicies,however,haveresultedinlimitedsolaruptakeinthecountry.Despiteapopulationof274millionandthelargestGDPoftheregion,operatingsolarPVcapacityremainsbelowtheGWlevelatpresent.Addressingthissituation,newregulations,suchasPresidentialRegulation112/2022,havesetbenchmarkcostsforpowergenerationineachregion,pushingrenewableenergyprojectstocompeteeconomically.Thispresentsasignificantopportunitytoboosttherenewableenergysectorinthefollowingyears.However,therealisationofthispotentialhingesonstateelectricitycompanyPLNtoinitiateenergyprocurementprocesses,andrenewableenergydevelopershaveexpressedconcernsabouttheattractivenessofsuchprojects.Whilestillinthestartingphaseofitssolardeploymenttrajectory,itisanticipatedthatthesolarmarketinIndonesiawilltakeoffandreachsizeablevolumesinthecomingyears.Severalplayershaveannouncedprojectsthatwouldsignificantlyincreasethecountry’ssolarcapacity,includinga3.5GWprojectaimedatexportinggreenenergytoneighbouringSingapore.Assoonasthisandotherprojectscometocompletion,thecountrywillenteranewgrowthphase.AccordingtotheSolarPowerEuropeHighScenario,theannualGWlevelcouldbealreadyreachednextyear.However,asindicatedbyIRENA’sRenewableEnergyOutlookforASEAN,Indonesiaboastsalargepotentialforsolarenergygenerationintheregion,amountingto2,898GW.Authors:GlobalSolarCouncil(GSC)&AsianPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation(APVIA).©ENGIEGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202753CorporatePPAsinemergingmarkets39MW,ReunionIsland,France.©LeStudioEphemere1.IntroductionAsfossilfuelpricescontinuetoriseglobally,andtheenergytransitiongatherspace,businessesallovertheworldareincreasinglyfacedwithkeyquestionsabouthowtheysourceenergyandelectricityfortheiroperations.Corporatecleanenergyprocurementcanbeanattractivealternativetogrid-sourcedelectricityforseveralreasons-itcansecureareliable,stablesupplyofrenewableelectricityforacompanythatcanhelpitachieveitsdecarbonisationorsustainabilitygoals,anditcanalsobeanattractiveeconomicoptiongiventhecomparativelylowLevelisedCostofElectricity(LCOE)ofsolarPVtofossilfuels.AccordingtoS&PGlobal,in2022,theannualglobalcorporaterenewablepowerpurchaseagreement(PPA)marketstoodatover51GW,growingby60%year-on-year.Ofthistotal,25.5GWwereforsolarPV.Traditionally,thePPAmarkethasbeendominatedbyNorthAmerica.However,in2022forthefirsttimetheAsiaPacificemergedasthelargestregionforPPAs,with38%oftheglobalmarket,andtriplinginsizefrom2021.ThishighlightstheattractionandappetiteamongstcorporatesforsolarPPAs.OnacountryleveltheUSleadsgloballyinthisfield,SpainistheEuropeanfrontrunnerincorporatePPAs,andinAsia-Pacific,notablerenewablePPAmarketsareIndia,China,Bangladesh.WhilethefrontrunnersofglobalPPAmarketsarestillatanearlystate,therearealsosignificantopportunitieselsewhereintheworldforPPAgrowth.4Especially,thiscanbeseeninrapidlydevelopingregionssuchasSoutheastAsiaandSub-SaharanAfrica,wheregrowthinpopulation,GDP,andpowerdemandwillleadtoincreasingstrainonalreadystretchedelectricitygrids,potentiallyincentivisingbusinessestosecuretheirownsourcesofelectricitytosafeguardandexpandtheiroperations.WiththeSub-SaharanAfricanregionatthestartofitsjourneyintocorporatesourcing,thereiscomparativelylittleexperienceonhowtoattractinvestmentintoPPAs.SoutheastAsia,astepfurtheraheadinthedevelopmentofPPAmarkets,canalreadypointtoseverallessonslearnedasitsnationalmarketshaverecentlygrownsignificantly.ApplyingsomeoftheselessonsinSub-SaharanAfricacouldbethekeytounlockingfurtherPPAmarketgrowth,andthefullrealisationofAfrica’ssolarpotential.4Chauhan,A(2023),Globalcorporatecleanenergyprocurementcrosses50GWwithAsiaasthelargestregionin2022.2March,2023,https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/ci/research-analysis/global-corporate-clean-energy-procurement-crosses-50-gw.htmlThischapterissupportedbyGET.invest,aEuropeanprogrammethatmobilisesinvestmentinrenewableenergy,supportedbytheEuropeanUnion,Germany,Sweden,theNetherlands,andAustria.3CorporatePPAindevelopingcountries/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202754CorporatePPAbusinessmodelsThereareseveralPPAbusinessmodelsthatarealreadyusedworldwide.Theycanbedividedbroadlyintotwogroups,on-siteandoff-sitemodels.6On-sitePPAmodelsProvidedthereisadequateland,roofspace,orcarportsavailable,aC&Icustomermaytakethedecisiontomaximisetherenewableenergyresourcesintheirsurroundingsbyinstallingrenewableenergyassetsontheirland.Thisoffersthesignificantadvantageofinexpensiverenewableelectricity,andavoidsextracostsfortransmissionanddistributionthatarebundledintotariffsforelectricitysuppliedfromagrid.Withintheon-sitePPAgrouping,therearefourdistinctivetypesofarrangements:self-owned,leasing,on-sitePPA,andprivate-wirePPA.Underaself-ownedmodel,aC&Ientitywouldhavefullownershipovertherenewableenergyinstallation,andconsumetheelectricityitproduces(behind-the-metergeneration).Inessence,thisisnodifferenttoaresidentialrooftopinstallation(otherthaninsize),asthereisnoagreementconcludedbetweentwoparties,althoughitdoesconstituteaformofcorporatesourcingofRES.IftheupfrontCAPEXofarenewableenergyassetistoohigh,acompanymightchoosetoallowathirdpartytodevelop,andownanassetonitsproperty,payingaleasingfeeforuseoftheelectricitytheassetproduces.Thiscanbereferredtoeitherasaleasingoron-sitePPA.Finally,arenewableenergyinstallationcanbebuiltoff-siteandconnectedtothecorporateend-userviaa‘privatewire’,allowingforbehind-the-meterconsumption.However,managingsurpluselectricitymayrequireagridconnectionattheinstallation,orthepowerconsumersite,whichwouldalsobereflectedintheelectricitypriceofthePPA.5S&PGlobal(formerlyIHSMarkit),GlobalCorporateCleanEnergyProcurementMarketBriefing,June2022.https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/pdf/0822/Global-Corporate-Clean-Energy-Procurement-Market-Briefing-June-2022-final.pdf6RE-SourcePlatform(2020),IntroductiontoCorporateSourcingofRenewableElectricityinEurope,January2020,https://resource-platform.eu/wp-content/uploads/files/statements/RE-Source-introduction-to-corporate-sourcing.pdfFIGURE29CORPORATEPPASANNOUNCEDPERREGION,FROMQ12017TOQ1202250MW0501001502002503002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000NumberofdealsNorthAmericaEuropeAsiaPacificMiddleEastandAfricaQ1Q2Q3Q42017Q1Q2Q3Q42018Q1Q2Q3Q42019Q1Q2Q3Q42020Q1Q2Q3Q42021Q12022NumberofCEP©S&PGlobal(formerlyHISMarkit)GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202755Off-sitePPAsWhenspaceandrenewableenergysourcesarelimited,aC&Icustomermaydecidetomakeuseofrenewableresourcesfromaninstallationoff-site.Withthismodel,aC&Icustomercanpurchaselargervolumesofpowerthanwiththeon-sitemodel,asthereisnospaceconstraintontheasset.Withintheoff-sitePPAgrouping,therearetwodistinctivetypesofarrangements:physicalandfinancialPPAs.UnderaphysicalcorporatePPAmodel,athird-partyowns,operates,andmaintainstheinstallationoff-siteandsellstheelectricitygeneratedbytheassettothecorporateentity.Theassetisconnectedtotheconsumerviatheelectricitygrid.Autilitywillthentransporttheelectricitytotheoff-takerviatheelectricitygridinaprocesscalledwheeling.Theywillusuallychargeanadditionalfee,or‘sleevingfee’,forthetransmissionandbalancingoftheelectricityinjectedintothegridfromtheoffsiteinstallation.ThisfeeiscommonlyspecifiedinthePPA.Transmissionanddistributionfeesalsoneedtobepaid.Afinancial,FIGURE30ON-SITEPPAMODELSRenewableinstallation(Corporate-owned)EnergyserviceproviderCorpoprateConsumerPowersurplus+GOsWholesaleprice€Power(Residualdemand)GOsRetailprice€Renewableinstallation(Thirdparty-owned)LEASINGEnergyserviceproviderCorpoprateConsumerPowersurplus+GOsWholesaleprice€Power(Residualdemand)GOsRetailpriceLeasingFeePPAPricePPAPrice€€Renewableinstallation(Thirdparty-owned)ONSITEPPAEnergyserviceproviderCorpoprateConsumerPowersurplus+GOsWholesaleprice€Power(Residualdemand)GOsRetailprice€€Renewableinstallation(Thirdparty-owned)PRIVATE-WIREPPAEnergyserviceproviderCorpoprateConsumerPowersurplus+GOsWholesaleprice€Power(Residualdemand)GOsRetailprice€€©RE-SourcePlatform3CorporatePPAindevelopingcountries/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202756orvirtualPPAinvolvesafinancialcontractwithoutphysicaltransmissionofpowerbetweentheproducerandtheC&Iconsumer.TheelectricitypriceissetunderaContractforDifference(CfD)betweentheassetownerandanenergyserviceprovider,providingtheC&Iconsumerwithafinancialhedgeagainstlong-termelectricitypricefluctuation.Additionally,aseparatePPAissignedbytheinstallationownertosellthephysicalpowertothemarket.2.CorporatePPAsinSub-SaharanAfricaSub-SaharanAfricahasapersistentlackofelectricityaccess,partlyduetounderinvestmentinelectricityinfrastructure.Manyofitspubliclyownedutilitycompaniesareloss-makingandhaveonlylimitedresourcestomaintaincurrentgenerationassets,oftenmeaningthereisnomoneyforinvestmentintonewones.Thishasconsequentialeffectsonpowersupply,reliability,andaffordability.Partialliberalisationeffortshaveseenincreasedinvestmentsingenerationcapacity,butupgradesintransmissionanddistributionnetworkshavenotfollowedsuit,furtherconstrainingailingutilities’abilitytoeffectivelyintegratefuturegenerationprojectsintooutdatedelectricitygrids.Combinedwithpredictedrapidpopulationandeconomicgrowth,itisclearthatfundamentalchangeswillneedtotakeplaceintheelectricitysectorinordertokeepupwithpowerdemand.ThispresentsanenormousopportunityforthePPAmarkettobeadriverofthiseconomicgrowth,respondingtodemandwherethegridcannot.InthissectionwewillexploresomeofSub-SaharanAfrica’smostdynamicsolarmarkets–SouthAfrica,Angola,andGhana–andassessthepotentialforPPAsmovingforward.SOUTHAFRICATheSouthAfricanenergysectorisgovernedbytheDepartmentofMineralResourcesandEnergy,andelectricitytariffsareoverseenbytheNationalEnergyRegulatorofSouthAfrica(NERSA).Eskomisthenationalpublicutility.In2019,duetocriticaldebtlevels,theSouthAfricangovernmentannouncedplanstounbundleEskomintothreeseparateentitiesresponsibleforgeneration,transmission,anddistribution;theprocessisstillongoing.Duetoitseconomicsize,SouthAfricacanboastsignificantindustrialpresencewithinitsborders.ThisalsomakesitthemostdynamicPPAmarketinSub-SaharanAfrica.FIGURE31OFF-SITEPPAMODELSRenewableinstallation(Thirdparty-owned)EnergyserviceproviderCorpoprateConsumerPower+GOsPower(Residualdemand)Power+GOsSleevingFeePPAPricePPAfinancialsettlement€€Renewableinstallation(Thirdparty-owned)FINANCIALPPAEnergyserviceproviderCorpoprateConsumerWholesaleprice€Retailprice€€GOsWholesalemarketAggregator©RE-SourcePlatformGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202757PPAgrowthinSouthAfricahasbeenlargelydrivenbythevariouspowercrisesthatthecountryhasfacedsince2008,aresultofmaintenanceproblemsinEskom-ownedpowerplants,andalackofinvestmentintransmissionanddistributioninfrastructure.Thesehaveledtoadearthofpowergenerationcapacityand,since2016,loadsheddinghasbecomeincreasinglysevereinthecountry,leadingcorporateoff-takerstosearchforalternativemeansofsecuringtheirelectricitysupply.TheSouthAfricanPPAmarkethasadiverserangeofplayersinvolved,fromsmallC&Icustomerstolargeminingcompanies.Initially,in2017,deploymentofPPAswassupportedviaacancellationoftherequirementforalicensingfeeforprojectsunder1MWinsize.WhilethisdidnotimmediatelycatalyseaPPAgoldrush,steadygrowthwasrecorded.Forinstance,in2018,SOVENTIXdevelopeda998kWsolarsystemforSIEMENSheadquartersinSouthAfrica.Promptedbytheincreasingseverityofloadshedding,increasingnumbersofindustrialplayersenteredthePPAmarket,signinglargeragreements.In2020,theAfricanbranchofABInBev,signedaPPAwiththeSOLAGroup,asolarcompany,toprovide8.7MWofelectricityforsevenbreweries.Intheminingsectortherewasareported585MWprojectpipelinefromgoldandplatinummines,seekingtosecurepowerfortheiroperations.SteelcompanyArcelorMittalreleasedatenderfor150MWofsolarlaterin2020,asdidchemicalscompanySasol(for600MW).WheelingisallowedbyEskomundercertainconditionsandforafee.ThefirstsolarwheelingprojectwasdevelopedinNovember2021bytheSOLAGroup.The10MWprojectprovideselectricitytoalocalunitofAmazonthroughthenationalgrid.ThelatestamendmentoftheElectricityRegulationAct(ERA),inAugust2021,increasedtheexemptionthresholdforgenerationlicencesto100MW,tofurthereasetheenergycrisisinthecountry,beforeremovingthelicencethresholdentirelyinDecember2022.Afterthispolicydevelopment,inJanuary2023,SouthAfrica’sNationalEnergyCrisisCommitteerevealedthata9GWpipelineofunsubsidised,distributedgenerationprojects,acrossmorethan100siteswasunderdevelopment.Sofarin2023,over1.4GWofPVinstallationshavebeenregisteredwithNERSA,showingtheopportunityforPPAswithlargeindustrialplayers,madepossiblebecauseofthenationalenergycrisisandtheremovalofthegenerationlicencerequirement.Theseincludetwo100MWsolarplantsintheNorth-Westofthecountry,bytheSOLAGroup,tosupplyelectricitytoTronox’sfiveminingoperationsitesthroughwheelingagreements.InJune2022,VantageDataCentresentereda20-yearPPAwithSolarAfricatoprovide87MWofsolar-generatedelectricity.Municipalsupporthasthepotentialtobeakeydriverforthedeploymentofsmall-scalesolarPVinstallations,lessthan1MW,intheC&Isector.AccordingtotheStatusofSmall-ScaleEmbeddedGeneration(SSEG)inSouthAfricanMunicipalities2020report,registeredC&Isystemsaccountedfora1.3MW,AlrodeBrewery,ABInBev,Johannesburg,SouthAfrica.©SOLAGroup.totalcapacityof282MWinmunicipalitiesacrossthecountry,asofNovember2020.MunicipalitiespurchaseelectricityfromEskom,andresellittolocalcustomers.ManyhavespecifictariffsforC&Iusers,andpurchaseexcesselectricityinjectedintothegridbyC&Iusers.Tocombatincreasinglysevereloadshedding,CapeTownintroduceditsCashforPowerprogrammeinJanuary2023.ThisprogrammeenablesownersofPVrooftopsystemstoselltheirexcesselectricitytothemunicipalityforcash,ontopofanexistingcreditontheirmonthlyelectricitybills.ThroughtheCashforPowerprogramme,andthecreditscheme,commercialcustomerscanselltheirexcessgreenelectricitytothecityfor0.7387ZAR/kWh(0.036EUR/kWh),ontopofa0.25ZAR/kWh(0.012EUR/kWh)creditontheirelectricitybills.However,unlessalackofcapacityforaddressingSSEGapplicationsisaddressed,municipalsupportcouldturnintoabottleneckforPPAs.Currently,inCapeTown,itcantakebetweenfourtosixmonthsforanSSEGapplicationtobeapproved.Nevertheless,theeffectofthesetwomeasureshasseenapplicationsforrooftopsolarinstallationssoarsincethestartof2023,withthecityreceiving1,040applicationsinthefirsttwomonthsoftheyear,highlightingtheenormouspotentialforPPAsunderthisscheme.NewpolicydevelopmentsareexpectedtoincreasethegrowthoftheC&Imarket.InMarch2023,SouthAfricaintroducedanewrebateschemeforrooftopPVprojectsabove1MW.Businessescanreducetheirtaxableincomeby125%ofthecostofaninvestmentinrenewables.Thischangerepresentsamajorshiftfromthepreviousscheme,whichallowedbusinessestodeduct50%oftheirinvestmentinthefirstyear,30%inthesecond,and20%inthethird.However,themostimportantpolicydevelopmentforPPAshasbeentheremovalofthecapongenerationfacilitiesrequiringagenerationlicence.Thishasenabledlargescaleembeddedprojectstobedevelopedforminingandotherenergyintensiveindustries.Sincethestartof2022,397MWworthofembeddedsolarPVprojectshavebeenregisteredwithNERSA,themajorityofwhichhavebeenmines.ANGOLATheenergysectorinAngolaislargelystateowned,andisconsideredstrategicallyimportantundertheLawontheDelimitationofEconomicActivity(2021).TheMinistryofEnergyandWater(MINEA)isthecompetentMinistryfortheelectricitysectorinAngola,andisresponsibleforthelicensingofelectricityinstallations.TransmissioniscontrolledbyEmpresaRedeNacionaldeTransportedeElectricidade(RNT),distributionismanagedbyEmpresaNacionaldeDistribuiçãodeElectricidade(ENDE),andEmpresaPúblicadeProduçãodeElectricidade(PRODEL)isthegenerationutility;theyareallpubliclyowned.Theelectricitysectorpermitsprivatesectorparticipationbymeansofconcessioncontracts.Anindependentregulatorybody,theRegulatoryInstituteforElectricity3CorporatePPAindevelopingcountries/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202758Biopio(189MW)solarfarminAngola.©VerangolaGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202759andWaterServices(IRSEA),wasestablishedin2016,andtheEnergyProjectImplementationSupportUnit(EPISU)wascreatedin2018tosupportthedevelopmentofIPPprojects.SolarPVdeploymenthastypicallybeenlowinAngola,withinstalledcapacityreaching16MWin2021;thecountry’stargetofreaching200MWofsolarPVby2025appearedoverlyambitious.However,in2022,285MWofutility-scalesolarPVcameonline,catapultingthecountrytooneofthelargestAfricansolarmarketsforthatyearandsignallingitsentryasanimportantAfricansolarplayer.Duetotheearlydevelopmentstageofthemarket,PPAsareuncommon.Thereissomescopeforcorporateentitiestopurchaseelectricitydirectlyfromarenewableenergyinstallation,orfromarangeofsuppliers,iftheyhaveapprovaltodosofromIRSEA.TheagreementforaPPAwouldhavetobemadebetweenthecontractingparties.Angola’seconomyexperiencedanacceleratedgrowthin2022,estimatedat3.5%,showingthecountry’srecoveryfromits2016recessionisunderway.Angola’seconomyischaracterisedbyitsdependenceonextractionactivities,inparticularoil,naturalgas,diamond,phosphates,gold,andotherminerals.However,effortsareunderwaytodiversifywithafocusontheenergytransition,agricultureandindustry.In2018,theAngolangovernmentlaunchedtheProductionSupport,ExportDiversificationandImportSubstitutionProgram(PRODESI),tofosterprivatesector-ledeconomicdiversificationandcompetitiveness.UnderPRODESI,thetradeanddistributionsectorsandagricultureareexpectedtogrow,andplayabiggerroleintheeconomy.In2021,theupdateofthePrivateInvestmentLawliftedthe35%localcontentobligationforforeigninvestments.Additionally,Angola’sstructuralreformsformacroeconomicstabilisationhavecontributedtostrengtheningthebankingsector.Angola’senergysectorbenefitsfrominternationalsupport,includingtheG7PartnershipforGlobalInfrastructureandInvestment,theAfricanDevelopmentBank,USAID,andtheWorldBank.AngolaispartoftheSouthernAfricaPowerPool,andhasannouncedplanstointerconnectitsgridwithNamibia,andpotentiallywiththeDemocraticRepublicofCongo.Significantstepshavebeentakentodiversifytheenergymixunderthe“AngolaEnergy2025”strategy;in2020,thegovernmentapprovedtheconstructionbySunAfricaandMCAofsevensolarPVplantstotalling370MW.Twooftheseplantshavebeeninstalledin2022.MorePVprojectsareexpectedtobedevelopedbyEni,TotalEren,SunAfrica,MCA,Sonangol,andElsewedyElectricforaround1GW.Thesewereallawardedviaconcessions,withaPPAtobesignedbetweenthedevelopersandRNTforthesaleofelectricity.WhiletheseinitiativesindicatethattheAngolansolarmarkethasbecomequiteactiveinrecenttimes,onthecorporatePPAfrontthereisyettobesignificantmovement.C&IentitiesarecoveredasNon-integratedElectricitySystemsundertheGeneralElectricityLaw.Thatistosay,PPAsareallowedforself-consumptionandsupplytoisolatedprivatesystems.Systemsover100kWneedtoberegisteredandcanenteraPPAagreementwiththeregulatortoselltheirexcesselectricity.WhileelectricitytariffsarecurrentlylowerthanintherestofSub-SaharanAfricainAngola,thegovernmentisexpectedtomakeprogresstowardachievingcost-reflectivetariffsby2025.Growthinthenon-oileconomy,especiallyinagriculture,servicesandconstruction,isexpectedtoremainrobust.Governmentsupportforsolardeployment,positiveeconomicperspectives,andenhancedinvestmenttermsrepresentanopportunityforthesolarPPAmarkettogrow,especiallyon-siteandprivate-wirePPAs.Thesehavethepotentialtoprovidereliableandcost-effectiveelectricitytocompanies,aswellasmeettheirnet-zerotargets.GHANATheelectricitysectorinGhanaischaracterisedbyagapbetweenthetotalgeneratingcapacityandpeakdemand,highelectricitytariffs,highlevelsoftransmissionanddistributionlosses,andhighoccurrenceofgriddowntime.TheC&Isectoraccountsforaroundhalfofallelectricityconsumedinthecountry.In2004,theGovernmentofGhanaunbundledtheelectricitysector.Thestate-ownedVoltaRiverAuthority(VRA),theBuiPowerAuthority(BPA),andIPPsareresponsibleforelectricitygeneration.Electricitytransmissionismanagedbythestate-ownedGhanaGridCompany(GRIDCo).Electricitydistributionisgeographicallydivided,intheSouthitismanagedbytheElectricityCompanyofGhana(ECG),intheNorthbytheNorthernElectricityDistributionCompany(NEDCo),andbytheprivately-ownedEnclavePowerLtd(EPL)intheTemaFreeZoneEnclave.MostcorporatesourcinginGhanaisdonefollowingon-sitemodelsforsmall-scaleprojectsunder1MWformanufacturingfacilities.Updatesinregulationsarestillneededtoenableotherbusinessmodelstoflourish.PPAshavebeensignedbetweeninternationalmanufacturingcompaniesaswellasGhanaianentities.Manufacturingindustriesincludeplastic,PVC,bottling,cocoaandnutagro-processorcompanies.In2011,theGovernmentofGhanaintroducedtheRenewableEnergyAct,whereitestablishedtherequirementforalicenceforC&Iprojectsover1MW.Anet-meteringschemewasestablishedin2016andupdatedin2022.Otherincentivesincludetaxrebates,waiversofVATandimportdutiesonformaterialsandcomponents.Asof2019,thecountryhadaround7MWofC&Isolarcapacityinstalled,composedofindividualprojectcapacitiesoflessthan1MW.In2019,GhanareleaseditsRenewableEnergyMasterPlan,outlininganinvestmentplanuntil2030andsettingarenewableenergygenerationtargetof1,363MWby2030.TheMasterPlanalsoincludesthepromotionoflocalcontentandlocalparticipationintherenewableenergyindustryunderwhichforeigncompaniesapplyingforalicencearerequiredtohaveatleast15%localownership,and60%ofengineeringandprocurementactivitiesinvolvingGhanaiancompanies.ThePublicUtilityRegulatoryCommission(PURC)allowsforfinancialoff-sitePPAsunderawholesaleelectricitysupplylicencetoaC&Iconsumerclassifiedas“bulkcustomer,”withanaveragemonthlymaximumdemandexceeding500kWoverthreeconsecutivemonths,oraminimumannualenergyconsumptionof1GWh.Thiscategoryincludesmining,aluminium,andmanufacturingcompanies.Thesupplierpaysawheelingfeetothetransmissioncompany,openingthedoortooff-sitePPAmodels,andfurthermarketdiversificationintermsofoff-takers.Currently,fewcompaniesqualifyforawholesalelicence.However,despiteacurrentdecreaseinGDPgrowthrates(from5.4%in2021to1.6%in2023),theWorldBankpredictsareturntostrongeconomicgrowthby2024,suggestingthatpowerdemandwillincreaseinthenearfuture,expandingthepoolofaddressablecustomersforthewholesaleelectricitysupplylicence.OutlookforSub-SaharanAfricacorporatePPAmarketsSouthAfricarepresentsthemostmatureC&IsolarmarketinSub-SaharanAfrica.EnergyintensiveindustriesinthecountryrepresentakeyaddressablemarketforcorporatePPAs,especiallybecauseoftheongoingpowercrisis.TheremovalofthegenerationlicencerequirementthresholdinSouthAfricahasenabledthesetypesofcompaniestodeploysolarinstallationstosupporttheiroperations.Thissegmenthasasignificantgrowthpotentialduetothepresenceofseveralminingcompanies,suchasAngloAmericanPlatinumandSibanyeStillwater,withsignificantoperationsinthecountry.GhanaisthelargestproducerofgoldinAfrica,andextractsmanganese,bauxite,andmorerecentlylithium.PPAsareslowly3CorporatePPAindevelopingcountries/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202760705kWon-siteleasingPPAonplasticrecyclingcompany,Miniplast’sfactoryinAccra,Ghana.©Bilanol/ShutterstockGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202761developing,buthavesignificantgrowthpotential.Forinstance,in2018,NewmontMiningCorporationinstalleda120kWre-deployableNomadsolarPVtracker,fromCambridgeEnergyPartners,atitsAkyemgoldmine.TofurthersupportthegrowthofthesegmentinGhana,the“bulkcustomer”regulationwillhavetobeadaptedtoensuremorecompaniescanqualifyforthelicence.Angola’sdiamondandmineralsextractionoperationscanalsobenefitfromthedevelopmentofthePPAmarket.ManufacturingactivitiesalsohavethepotentialtoparticipateinthegrowthofthePPAmarket.RecentpolicydevelopmentsinSouthAfricawillcontributetothegrowthofthemarket.Whilethereareseveralexamplesofsmall-scalemanufacturingC&IcustomersinGhana,thissegmentisexpectedtocontinuetoexpandduetohighelectricitytariffs,andgrowingpowerdemand.Thegrowthoflargerscaleprojectsisrestrictedbylocalcontentrules,andhighinterestratesforloans.AsAngolaexpectstoachievecost-reflectivetariffsby2025,electricitypriceswillincreaseforC&Icustomers.PPAsofferreliable,high-qualitypower,availableatacompetitivecost,resultinginimprovedbusinessoperations,andcontributingtothediversificationoftheeconomyinasustainablemanner.ThegrowthofthePPAmarketinSub-SaharanAfricarequirespublicandprivateinvestments.Multilateralandbilateraldevelopmentfinanceinstitutions,aswellasinvestmentfunds,havetakenstepstounlockthesolarpotentialoftheregion.The100millionEURfundAFRIGREENDebtImpactFund,providesprojectfinanceandasset-basedfinancesolutionsforon-andoff-gridsolarenergyinstallationsforC&IconsumersinAfrica,withaparticularfocusonNigeria,IvoryCoast,Senegal,GhanaandCameroon.Elsewhere,EmpowerNewEnergy,asolarplatforminvestmentcompany,operatesafundof74millionUSD(68.4millionEUR)inequityfinanceforthedevelopmentof150MWofoff-gridandon-gridsolarC&IprojectsacrossAfricaby2025.Moreover,theEnergyandEnvironmentPartnershipTrustFund(EEPAfrica)providesearly-stagegrantandcatalyticfinancingtoinnovativecleanenergyprojects,technologies,andbusinessmodels,includingC&Icustomers,inacross16Africancountries.Itprovidesgrantsofupto500,000EUR,andloansupto1millionEUR,withaminimumco-financingrequirementof30%.Inadditiontofinancing,internationalpartners,suchastheGET.investprogramme,providesupporttoC&Icustomers,withthedevelopmentoffinanciallyviablesolarprojects.TheGET.investprogrammemobilisesinvestmentinrenewableenergyindevelopingcountries,andsupportsprojectdevelopersbylinkingthemwithfinanciers.With13%ofitsprojectsfocusedonC&I,theprogrammehashelped66projectsreachfinancialcloseforatotalinvestmentamountingto442millionEUR,anditcurrentlyhasapipelineofC&IprojectsinBurundi,Eswatini,andMozambique.InSouthAfrica,largecommercialbanksprovidefinancingforlarge-scaleprojects,andhavestartedofferingloansforsmallerprojects,under1MW.Absa,FirstNationalBank/RandMerchantBank(RMB),Investec,NedbankandStandardBank,providedebtandequityfinancing,hedgingandcorporatefinance.SomeEPCserviceprovidersalsoofferfinancingtoreduceupfrontcostsforC&Icustomers.However,loansarecharacterisedbyhighinterestratescomparedtointernationalstandards,thusdeterringinvestmentsinrenewableenergyprojects.Inothercountriesintheregion,veryfewcommercialbanksareactiveinfinancingsolarprojects.BarrierspersisttounleashingthefullpotentialofPPAsinSub-SaharanAfrica,includingalackofdedicatedfinancingandde-riskingtoolsfortheC&Imarket.Regulatorychallengesincludealackofnet-billingregulations,preventingcustomersfromsellingtheirexcesselectricity,andalackoftransparencysurroundinggridaccess,tariffsandwheelingregulations.Localownershiprequirements,andtheneedforawholesaleelectricitysupplylicencetosellelectricitytoabulkcustomer,islimitingthedeploymentoflarger-scalePVprojectsinGhana.Furthermore,thehighcostofcapitalacrosstheregionremainsakeychallengethatshouldbeaddressedthroughdedicatedfinancingschemes.TheSouthAfricansolarmarketisthemostmatureinSub-SaharanAfrica,withasuccessfulhistoryofutility-scaleandPPAdeployment.Therestoftheregionpresentsopportunitiesandahighpotentialforsolardeployment.Futuregrowthisexpectedaselectricitypricesanddemandincreases.DependenceonoilandhydroforelectricitygenerationrepresentsarisktoreliableelectricitysupplyinSub-SaharanAfrica;solardeploymentwillhelpcontributetothediversificationofenergymixesandreduceGHGemissionstoachieveclimatechangemitigationtargets.ThePPAmarketisdrivenbytheneedforreliableandcost-competitiveelectricitytopowertheC&Isector,aswellasbycompanies’decarbonisationobjectivesandgovernments’commitmentstoincreasetheshareofrenewablesintheirenergymix.3.CorporatePPAsinSoutheastAsiaTheAsia-Pacific(APAC)regionhoststheworld’slargestandfastestgrowingPPAmarket.Inlate2022,energyresearchcompanyWoodMackenzieforecasted7GWofPPAsfor2022inAPAC,over80%morethanin2021.NeartheendofQ1/2023,S&PGlobalreportedthatover50GWofPPAannouncementshadbeenmadein2022,withover19GWofthosecomingfromAPAC.Unsurprisingly,technologygiantssuchhasAmazon,Google,Microsoft,andMetaarethechiefdriversofcorporaterenewableenergysourcing.However,theincreaseinprojectedgrowthreportedbyWoodMackenziehighlightsthatcorporatebuyersarebecomingmorediverse,withmanufacturing,materialsandretailsegmentscarvingoutalargershareofthePPAmarket.Thisgrowthcanbeunderstoodastheresultofincreasingnumbersoffirmsannouncingambitiousdecarbonisationtargets,newregulationsandincentives,coupledwiththeincreasingpricesofpowersuppliedfromLNG,coalandoil,andtherelativeinexpensivenessofrenewableelectricity.Whilethereareseveralcountriesintheregionthatarealreadyadvancedintheirsolarjourney(e.g.China,Japan,SouthKorea,Australia,etc.),thisdoesnotmeanthattherearenotsignificantPPAopportunitiesinnewermarkets,particularlyintheSoutheastAsiaregion.Thailand,Malaysia,andthePhilippines,areallliberalisingtheirelectricitysectors,openingthedoorfordifferentroutestomarketforsolar,includingPPAs.Thissectionwillexploresomeofthemostexcitingdevelopmentsinthesemarkets,thedriversoftheirgrowth,andthebiggestplayerssigningcorporatePPAs.THAILANDThailand’selectricitysystemislargelystate-owned,withtheutility,theElectricityGeneratingAuthorityofThailand(EGAT),controllinggeneration,transmission,anddistributionactivities.DistributionactivitiesarealsoundertakenbytheMetropolitanElectricityAuthority(MEA),andtheProvincialElectricityAuthority(PEA).However,Thailandpermitsprivatelyownedrooftopsolarinstallationsundertwomodels:eithercorporateoff-takersowntheassetandusetheelectricitygeneratedforself-consumption;oracorporateoff-takerleasestheirrooftoasolardeveloperwhothensellsthemelectricityunderacorporatePPA.Initially,mostPPAgrowthcameaboutundertheself-ownedmodel,withcorporateoff-takersowningtheirowninstallations,andtheC&Irooftopsolarmarketgrowinginprominence.ThegrowthoftheC&Ioff-takermarketwasinitiallydrivenbyaFeed-in-Tariff(FIT)programmestartedin2013,whichtargeted200MWofrooftopsolaracrossC&Iandresidentialinstallations.Throughthis,100MWofcommercialscalerooftopsolarPPAswereawardedto193separatebidders.Sincethen,supportforC&Irooftopsolarhasbeenlukewarm.However,therisingpricesofEGAT,PEA,MEA-providedelectricity,andthedecreaseinpricesofsolarequipmenthavemeantthatrooftopC&Iinstallationshavemaintainedtheirappeal.3CorporatePPAindevelopingcountries/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202762SolarPVinstallationonthesiteofagro-industrialcompanyCargillinThailand.©CleantechSolarGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202763Forthetimebeing,mostcorporatesourcingisdonefollowingon-sitemodels.DuetothehighCAPEXrequiredatthestartofthelifecycleofasolarinstallation,andanascentdebtmarketforrenewables,leasingisacommonpracticeinThailand,withcompaniespayingafixedfeetoassetownersthatiscompetitiveincomparisontogrid-suppliedenergy.AsthePPAisbetweentwoprivateentities,itissubjecttogeneralcivillaw,meaningbothpartiesarefreetoshapetheagreementastheywish(freedomofcontract).Thisoffersincreasedflexibilityforbothbuyersandsuppliers,particularlywhenitcomestofinancingoftheconstruction,maintenance,andoperationofthesystem.TheThaiPPAmarkethasadiverserangeofplayersinvolved.FromEurope,TotalEnergiessignedanagreementwithalargefoodcompany,Betagro,in2020toprovide25MWofsolarrooftopsfortheir24facilitiesinthecountry.Thesearegovernedby20-yearPPAagreementsandconstituteoneofthelargestportfoliosinThailand.TheJapanesecompany,ShizenInternationalalsohasasubstantialportfolioofprojectsinThailandwhichdemonstratetherangeofcorporatebuyerspresentinthecountry.Frompackagingfirmstolargeindustrialconglomerates,suchasPanasonic,automotivefirms,andindustrialparks,Shizenhasa16MWportfolioofPPAsinoperationcurrently.OtherbigplayersincludetheThaicompanyConstantEnergy,whichsigned3PPAsforTataSteelGroupfactoriesinThailand,providing12MWacrossthefacilities.MALAYSIAMalaysia’selectricitysystemhasbeenonapathofgradualliberalisationsince1990,whentheNationalElectricityBoardwasprivatisedtoformTenagaNasionalBerhad(TNB),whichtodayremainsthesinglebuyerofelectricity,transmission,anddistributionsystemoperatorinthecountry.IPPswereeventuallyallowedtoparticipateinthegenerationmarketfrom1993.TheelectricitysectorisoverseenbySuruhanjayaTenaga,theregulatorybody.Malaysiaretainsanenormousamountofpotentialforrooftopsolar,andthegovernmentisnowtakingseveralencouragingstepstounleashthepotentialofanotherwisestagnantC&Imarket.FIGURE32OVERVIEWOFMALAYSIA’SCGPPPROGRAMME®SINGLEBUYERElectricityutilitycompany(EUC)CORPORATEGREENPOWERAGREEMENTSolarpowerproducer(SPP)Corporateconsumer(CC)E1,energysuppliedtoEUCbySPPbasedonNEDAGuidelinesP1,pricepayabletoSPPbasedonActualSMPP2,pricepayabletoEUCbasedonnormaltariffrate,TP3,settlementbasedonT&CinCGPAwithprice,CRenewableenergycertificate(REC),ifapplicableE2,energysuppliedbyEUCtoCC€REC€©SingleBuyer.ThegrowthoftheC&IsegmentinMalaysiastartedwiththeintroductionofaFITschemeundertheRenewableEnergyActof2011.ThisenabledC&IcustomerstogenerateandsellelectricitytoTNB.TheFITwasreplacedin2016byanet-meteringscheme,withlimitedsuccessduetounattractivereturns,particularlyforlargerC&Icustomers.Thispromptedanewnet-meteringschemetobeintroducedin2019toaddressthelackofengagementwithitspredecessorandthisofferedbetterreturnsforC&Icustomers.Whilstthisencouragedthedevelopmentofrooftopinstallations,withTNBasthesinglebuyer,PPAsareyettomakeaproperentranceintotheMalaysianmarket.However,thatlookssettochangewiththeMalaysiangovernment’snewCorporateGreenPowerProgramme(CGPP).TheCGPPwasintroducedin2022toencouragetheadoptionofgreenelectricityamongstcorporatecompaniesinMalaysia.TheCGPPoperatesusingafinancialorvirtualPPAmodel,meaningitstopsshortofbeingatrueconventionalagreementshownintheon-siteandoff-sitemodelsatthebeginningofthischapter.Underit,companieshaveaCorporateGreenPowerAgreement(CGPA)withsolardevelopers.Thesefunctionalongthesamelinesasacontractfordifference,establishingaCGPAprice.ThesolarpowerproducersellselectricitytoTNBatthesystemmarginalpriceandthecorporateconsumerwillprocureelectricityfromthepowergridatitspointofinterconnection.IfthetariffratepaidbythecorporateofftakerishigherthantheCGPAprice,theymustreimbursethesolarpowerproducerthedifference.Similarly,ifthesystemmarginalpricereceivedbythesolarpowerproducerishigherthantheCGPAprice,thesolarpowerproducermustrefundthedifference.ThecurrentfirstroundoftheCGPAstartedwithatotalof600MWtobeawarded.Thequotawasraisedto800MWinMarch,2023andalowerlimitof5MWwasimposedonCGPAs,alongwithanupperlimitof30MW.Thecurrentwindowisrunninguntil31December2023,oruntilall800MWhavebeenawarded.Successfulbidswillhaveuntil2025tohavetheirplantfullyoperational.ApplyingtotheCGPAschemerequiresadeveloperandacorporateofftakertoagreeaPPApriortoapplyingtothescheme.Itisnotaguaranteethat,Malaysia’sfirstforayintoPPAs,willbeasuccess.Thereareseveralelementsthatcouldlimitparticipationintheprogramme.Forexample,majorityforeignownershipofaprojectisnotpermitted(49%isthemaximum),andCGPAscanonlybesignedwithcompaniesineitherthemanufacturingortheserviceindustry,withacrediblefinancialpositionforthelastthreeyears.Particularlyinthecaseofeligibilityofcorporatecustomers,itisnotclearwhichsectorsareexcludedfromtheCGPP.PHILIPPINESThePhilippineselectricitysectorisuniqueinSoutheastAsiaduetheextentofitsliberalisation.Since2001,successivegovernmentshavemadeeffortstointroducecompetitionandchoiceover3CorporatePPAindevelopingcountries/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202764312kWon-sitesolarPVsysteminShahAlam,Malaysia.©ProgresstureEnergyGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202765electricityprovidersforendcustomers.TransmissioniscontrolledbytheNationalGridCorporationofthePhilippines(NGCP).Thedistributionsectorisdominatedbytheprivately-ownedutility,Meralco,butthereareover100otherprivatelyowneddistributionutilitiesactiveinthemarket.MarketliberalisationinthePhilippineshasbroughtsignificantbenefitstotheC&Isegmentthathavegivenlargerpowerconsumersthechoiceoverwhichelectricityproviderstheyuse.ThemaincatalystforgrowthoftheC&IsegmentandPPAsinthePhilippinescamewhenRetailCompetitionandOpenAccess(RCOA)wasintroducedintheElectricPowerIndustryReformActof2001.Thisallowedcompanieswithanaveragepeakdemandofatleast500kW,oranaveragebillingof950,000PHP(15,574EUR)overthepastyeartonegotiatewithapoolofretailelectricitysuppliers,whothentransactwithpowergenerationcompaniesonbehalfofthecorporateoff-taker.Inthissense,somethingakintoavirtualPPAmodeldeveloped.Thiswasfollowedin2008bytheRenewableEnergyLawwhichincludedtheGreenEnergyOptionProgramme(GEOP),allowingcompanieswithatleast100kWpeakdemandoranaveragemonthlybillingof190,000PHP(3,114EUR)tosourcerenewableenergyfromalicensedsupplier.Furthermore,theRenewableEnergyActalsomandatedacancellationofVATongenerationchargesforrenewableenergysources.Currently,theGEOPhas19registeredrenewableenergysuppliersandover230registeredcorporateend-users.TheC&ImarketwasfurtherbolsteredbyasolarPVFITprogrammewhichranfrom2012-2021,offeringaninitialpriceof9.68PHP/kWh(0.16EUR/kWh)foraninitial50MW.However,duetooversubscription,thiswasalteredto8.69PHP/kWh(0.14EUR/kWh)for500MW,despitethereductionoftheFIT,itwasstilloversubscribedby300MW.Furthermore,anet-meteringprogrammeforsystemsunder100kWalsoincentivisedcommercialsolarrooftopgrowth,particularlyunderself-ownedmodelsandprioritydispatchforRESsawthatthemaximumamountofrenewableelectricitycouldbeinjectedintothegrid.However,beyondpurelyself-ownedPPAsandtheGEOPsystem,therewasnospecificregulationsthatbroadenedthescopeofthePPAmarketuntil2022.Nevertheless,thisdidnotstopsteadygrowthintheC&Imarket,withNorthAmericanrenewableenergycompanyUGEInternationalcompletingnineprojects,totalling3MW,withcorporateoff-takers,includingretailmalls,foodcompanies,andcoldstoragefacilities.RetailmallsappearedtodrivetheC&Imarketinitially,withrealestateplayersRobinsonsLandCompanyinstalling12.5MWofsolaratopitsmallsaroundthecountry.Significantlylargerprojectsexisttoo,withthecementmakersHolcimsigninga29MWon-sitePPAwithBlueleafEnergyin2021.EuropeancompaniesarealsostartingtoseesuccessinthePhilippineswithTotalEnergiescurrentlydevelopinga13.8MWsystemforAsiaBreweryInc.atoneofitsmanufacturingfacilities.TheagreementwillseeTotalEnergiesbuild,own,andoperatethesystem,RobinsonsPlacePangasinan,,Philippines.©RobinsonsLandsellingallelectricityproducedtoAsiaBreweryInc.ENGIEisalsostartingtobecomeactiveinthemarket,signingMoUswithFilinvestandmedicalcompany,Marasenko,toexplorethedevelopmentofsolarPVinstallationsacrosstheirsitesinthecountry.InNovember2022,theElectricityRegulatoryCommissionpublishednewrulesfordistributedenergyresources(DERs)thatenhancedthelegislativeframeworkforPPAs.Undertherules,end-userscanenterintoeitheranon-site,oraleasingPPAofupto1MWinsize,where30%oftheelectricityproducedcanbeexportedtothegridandpurchasedbythedistributionutility.Combinedwitharemovalofthe40%ownershipcaponforeigninvestmentsincleanenergyprojects,andthedemandforinexpensiverenewableenergy,evidencedthroughtheGEOPprogramme,thesedevelopmentsarelikelytotriggerrapidgrowthinthePPAmarket.OutlookforSoutheastAsiancorporatePPAmarketsThereareseveralsignificantpolicydevelopmentsacrosstheregionthatarelikelytoboostPPAmarkets.Asever,thecommitmentofgovernmentstonationalenergytransitionsandthedevelopmentoftargetsforrenewableenergysendsaclearsignaltoinvestorsaboutthelong-termambitionofthemarket.Tothiseffect,Thailand’stargetof30%renewablesinthecountry’senergymixby2037and50%by2050isastepintherightdirection.Malaysiahassetitselftheambitioustargetofcarbonneutralityby2050,includinga31%renewableshareinnationalinstalledcapacityby2025,whichwillresultina45%reductioninGHGemissionsby2030comparedto2005levels.Similarly,thePhilippineshasoptedforatargetof35%renewablesinitspowergenerationmixby2030,and50%by2040.Whilsttargetsprovidealong-termoutlookforthesolarmarket,theimplementationoflarge,ground-mountedsolarprojectscanbecomplicatedbylandavailability,complexpermittingprocedures,andavailabilityofgridinterconnections.Forbusinessesfacingrisingpricesfromconventionalgenerationsources,PPAspresentanidealopportunitytogetaccesstoclean,low-costelectricity,boostingtheirowncorporatecarbonfootprintandcontributingtonationaltargets.GovernmentsinSoutheastAsiaseemtobelatchingontothisopportunity,creatingspecificsupportprogrammesforPPAs.Especially,thiscanbeseeninthePhilippines,wherethenewregulationsfordistributedenergyresourcesallowassetownerstofurthermonetisetheelectricityproducedbytheirinstallationbysellingupto30%ofittoadistributionutility.Similarly,Malaysia’sCGPPcanbeseenasthefirststepalongtheroadtofullimplementationoftheirThirdPartyAccessframework,akeypillarinpromotingalternativebusinessmodelssuchasPPAs.However,therearestillsomelimitingfactorstoPPAmarketdevelopmentintheregion.Forexample,participationinMalaysia’sCGPPprogrammerequiresMalaysianstobethemajorityshareholdersofarenewableenergyproject.Thailand’sEnergyRegulationCommitteealsopublisheddraftlawsattheendof2022thatwouldlimitforeignownershipto49%.Thisdraftlaw,ifunchanged,wouldalsobeappliedretroactivelymeaningforeignbusinessesinthemarketmayhavetorestructuretheirownershiptorequalifyforcommerciallicences.Limitinginvestorparticipationandcreatingmarketuncertaintybyintroducingregulatorychangesretroactivelywillalmostcertainlycausecurrentandwould-beinvestorsaliketoreconsidertheirpositioninthemarket.Inoppositiontothis,thePhilippineshasrecentlycancelledits40%maximumforeignownershiprule,makingclearsignalsthatitsmarketisopentoforeigninvestors.TheSoutheastAsianPPAmarketstandstobenefitfromambitiousnationalrenewableenergytargetsandtheincreasedliberalisationofelectricitysystemsacrosstheregion.Notonlywillthisopenmoreroutestomarketforsolar,butitwillprovidecorporateend-userswithgreaterchoiceonhowtosourcetheirelectricity.However,itremainstobeseenwhetherprogressismadebeyondthefirstfewtentativesteps,orwhetherlimitsonvolume,foreignownershipandinvestmentcouldultimatelyleadtoastagnationofthenascentPPAmarket.Whatisclearthough,isthatthedemandfromcorporatesforaccesstoaffordable,cleanelectricityispresentandunlikelytodisappearanytimesoon.3.RepeatingSoutheastAsiansuccessinSub-SaharanAfricaSub-SaharanAfricahasthenaturalresources,tobecomeaglobalsolarsuperpower.However,overthelasttwodecades,thecontinenthasonlyattractedaround2%ofallglobalrenewableenergyfunding.Thisdynamiccouldchangeiffurtherroutestomarketforsolar,suchasPPAs,canbeleveraged.Incontrast,SoutheastAsiansolarmarketgrowthhasbeendrivenin-partbyitsC&Iandrooftopsolarsegment,withseveraltypesofPPAmodelsemerging.Theseincludeon-siteleasinginThailandandthePhilippines,behind-the-meterconsumption,theintroductionofvirtualPPAschemesinMalaysia,andtheirpreviousdevelopmentinthePhilippines.Whethersomeofthe3CorporatePPAindevelopingcountries/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202766GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202767factorsforsuccessbehindtheSoutheastAsianmarketscanberepeatedinSub-SaharanAfrica,couldprovethekeytounlockingthepotentialofthePPAmarketsegmentintheregion.TheclearlinchpinsofthethreeSoutheastAsianmarkets’energytransitionplanshavebeenambitiousrenewablestargetsandaccompanyingstrategiestorealisethem.WhilstmostSub-SaharanAfricanmarketsalsohavenationaltargetsforrenewableenergydeployment,thereisasignificantfocusontheoff-gridandutility-scalesegments,withSouthAfricabeingtheexemption.Whilstthisrightlyreflectsnationalelectrificationprioritiesandincreasingpowerdemand,includingPPAsandthewiderC&Isegmentintheseplanswouldopennewroutestomarketforsolarandfurtherhelptheattainmentofthesetargets.Initiativessuchasnetmetering,FITschemes,monetisablerenewableenergycertificates,anddevelopingcontractsforthepurchaseofexcesselectricityfromdistributedsolarsystemsbythesinglebuyerwouldgoalongwaytoencouragingcorporateparticipationinrenewableenergygeneration,particularlythroughmoretraditionalon-sitePPAmodels.Thefocusonlargergrid-connected,ground-mountedsolarPVinstallationsinSub-SaharanAfrica,canlargelybeinterpretedastheresultofhavinglarge,state-ownedutilitiesastheonlylegalsinglebuyersfortheelectricityproduced.AcrossseveralmarketsinSub-SaharanAfrica,theunbundlingprocessoftheelectricitysystemisunderway.However,manyofthesehavestalledleavingmarketswithincomplete,orconfusingregulatoryframeworks.Incontrast,SoutheastAsiancountriesarefurtheraheadintheirmarketliberalisationprocessestotheextentthatgovernmentsareintroducingsupportschemestofurtherencourageprivatesectorparticipationinelectricitymarkets.TheseincludetheintroductionoftheregulationsfordistributedenergyresourcesinthePhilippinesandtheintroductionoftheCGPPforvirtualPPAsbytheMalaysiangovernment.InmarketssuchasMalaysiawithlargestate-ownedutilities,virtualPPAsseemtorepresentthefirststeptoopeningaPPAmarketandcouldbeusefulmodelforSub-SaharanAfricancountries.CountriesinSub-SaharanAfrica,suchasSouthAfrica,AngolaandGhana,haveanabundanceofsolarresource,andoftensignificantindustrialpresenceonthenationalterritory,particularlywhenitcomestominingandmanufacturing.However,stalledelectricitymarketliberalisationprogrammeshavemeantthatthePPApotentialisyettobefullyrealised.TakingtheexamplesofferedbySoutheastAsianmarketsincludingThailand,thePhilippinesandMalaysiacouldhelpthemchartacoursetowardsfurtherprivatesectorparticipationintheirelectricitymarkets.Accesstoinexpensive,reliableelectricitywouldalsoactasadrawtofurthercorporateentities,inturnboostingtheeconomy.TheseprocessesarealreadywellunderwayinSouthAfricaasaresultofrisingfossilfuelprices,instabilityofsupply,andthedecarbonisationtargetsofindustryplayers,andotherAfricanmarketsaresuretofollowsuit.Thequestionisnotif,butwhenthePPAboomwillhappen.MobilisingRenewableEnergyInvestmentsGET.investissupportedbyFundingDatabase100+ﬁnancinginstrumentsforrenewableenergyprojectsMarketInformationInsightsintoandhow-tobusinessguidesforvariousnationalrenewableenergymarketsProspectAfreedataandtransactionplatformtotracerenewableenergyprojectperformance,implementedincollaborationwiththeAccesstoEnergyInstitute(A2EI)FinanceAccessAdvisoryUnlockingﬁnanceforrenewableenergyprojectsthroughtheGET.investFinanceCatalystandFinanceReadinessSupportEvents&MatchmakingOpportunitiestoexchangeandconnectwithpotentialpartnersandinvestorsget-invest.eu@GET_investGET.investget-invest.eu/ﬁnance-catalystget-invest.eu/funding-databaseprospect.energyget-invest.eu/market-informationget-invest.eu/eventsGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202769GW-scalemarkets41.4MW,ReunionIsland,France.©AkuoIn2022,26countriesacrosstheworldinstalledmorethan1GWofnewsolarcapacity.Thisisasurgecomparedto2021,when17GW-scalesolarmarketswerecounted(seeFig.33).Lastyear’sGMOannounced21GWmarketsin2022,buttherealityturnedouttobebrighterthanourexpectations,asseveralnewcomersbecamepartofthisclub.While,contrarytoourpreviousforecast,solarmarketsintheUAEandCanadadidnotreachtheGWsize,afewcountriesoutsideofourradar–Austria,Hungary,Pakistan,Israel,Switzerland–crossedthisthresholdfortheveryfirsttime.Thisyear’slistalsoincludestheUnitedKingdomagain,whichreturnstothelistafteritslastappearancein2016,andevenMexico,whichdespitebeingaGWmarketin2021,wehadconservativeexpectationsfor.FIGURE33GW-SCALESOLARPVMARKETS2021-202320212022RestofWorld;8%Italy;1%France;1%Taiwan;1%Denmark;1%Greece;1%Chile;1%India;8%Türkiye;1%Brazil;5%SouthKorea;1%Poland;2%Spain;3%UnitedStates;10%China;42%26GWMarketsSouthAfrica;1%Austria;1%Japan;3%Germany;3%Netherlands;2%UnitedKingdom;1%Australia;2%Mexico;1%Hungary;0%Pakistan;0%Israel;0%Switzerland;0%2023RestofWorld;7%France;1%UAE;1%Taiwan;1%SouthKorea;1%Greece;1%Chile;1%India;6%Türkiye;1%Germany;4%Italy;1%Australia;2%Spain;4%UnitedStates;11%China;45%32GWMarketsUzbekistan;1%UnitedKingdom;1%Japan;2%Brazil;3%Poland;2%Austria;1%Netherlands;2%SouthAfrica;0%SaudiArabia;0%Pakistan;0%Belgium;0%Hungary;0%Switzerland;0%Israel;0%Canada;0%Sweden;0%Denmark;0%Mexico;0%UnitedStates;14%China;33%17GWMarketsRestofWorld;12%Netherlands;2%France;2%Vietnam;1%India;9%Türkiye;1%Japan;4%Poland;2%Brazil;3%Australia;4%Germany;4%Spain;3%SouthKorea;3%Taiwan;1%Mexico;1%Chile;1%©SOLARPOWEREUROPE20234GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202770Thehighernumberof26GW-scalemarketsdisplaysthestrongmomentumofsolar,asmorecountrieslooktolow-costandversatilesolartoshieldtheireconomiesfromelectricitypricevolatility,strengthentheirenergysovereignty,andcombatclimatechange.Ouroutlookforecaststhatthissustainedgrowthwillcontinue,reaching32GW-scalemarketsin2023,whensixmorecountrieswilljointhegroup–theUAE,Uzbekistan,SaudiArabia,Belgium,Canada,andSweden(seeFig33).In2024,weexpect40GW-scalemarkets,andatleast53GW-scalemarketsin2025–thesenumbershaveincreasedconsiderablyforeachyearcomparedtolastyear’sassessment.AsinpreviousGlobalMarketOutlooks,nationalsolarassociationsfrommarketsthathaveaddedmorethan1GWinthepreviousyearhavebeeninvitedtopresenttheirlocalexpertviewsontheirhomemarkets(whichsometimesdifferfromourestimatesthatarebasedonseveralsources).Manyoftheseassociations,likeSolarPowerEurope,aremembersoftheGlobalSolarCouncil(GSC),whichisalong-timesupporteroftheGlobalMarketOutlook.1.CHINAChinaPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation(CPIA)2.UNITEDSTATESTheSolarEnergyIndustriesAssociation(SEIA)3.INDIANationalSolarEnergyFederationofIndia(NSEFI)4.BRAZILBrazilianPhotovoltaicSolarEnergyAssociation(ABSOLAR)5.SPAINUniónEspañolaFotovoltaica(UNEF)6.GERMANYBundesverbandSolarwirtschaft(BSW-Solar)7.JAPANJapanPhotovoltaicEnergyAssociation(JPEA)8.POLANDPolskieStowarzyszenieFotowoltaiki(PSF)&PolskieTowarzystwoFotowoltaiki(PVPoland)9.THENETHERLANDSHollandSolar10.AUSTRALIASmartEnergyCouncil(SEC)11.SOUTHKOREAKoreaPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation(KOPIA)12.ITALYANIERinnovabili,ElettricitàFutura&ItaliaSolare13.FRANCESyndicatdesÉnergiesRenouvelables(SER)14.TAIWANTaiwanPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation(TPVIA)15.CHILEChileanSolarAssociation(ACESOL)16.DENMARKGreenPowerDenmark&DanishPVAssociation17.TÜRKIYETurkishSolarEnergyAssociation(GÜNDER)18.GREECEHellenicAssociationofPhotovoltaicCompanies(HELAPCO)19.SOUTHAFRICASouthAfricanPVIndustryAssociation(SAPVIA)20.AUSTRIABundesverbandPhotovoltaicAustria(PVAustria)21.UNITEDKINGDOMSolarEnergyUK(SEUK)22.MEXICOMexicanAssociationofSolarEnergy(ASOLMEX)23.HUNGARYHungarianPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation(MANAP)24.PAKISTANPakistanSolarAssociation(PSA)25.ISRAELGreenEnergyAssociationofIsrael(GEA-IL)26.SWITZERLANDSwissolarGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027711.ChinaOverviewofPVdevelopmentsIn2022,China’snewinstalledPVcapacityexceeded87.4GW7,anincreaseof59.3%year-on-year.Newsolarinstallationsreachedanewrecordhigh,becomingthelargestandfastestgrowingpowersourceintermsofnewinstallations.Fromtheamountofinstalledcapacity,wecanseethattherateofnewPVinstallationsinChinacontinuestoaccelerate.Bytheendof2022,thecumulativePVcapacityreached392.6GW,closetothe400GWmilestone,becomingthethirdlargestinstalledpowersource.In2022,PVannualpowergenerationreached425TWh,exceeding400TWhforthefirsttime,andaddedabout100TWhofnewpowergeneration.Thisaccountedfor30%ofallnewpowergeneration.Themanufacturingsectoralsocontinuedtogrowin2022.Bytheendoftheyear,China’spolysiliconproductionstoodatabout827,000tonnesup63.4%from2021;waferproductionreached357GW,anincreaseof57.5%;whilemoduleproductionreached288.7GW,up58.8%.Batteryproductiontotalled318GW,representinganincreaseof60.7%from2021.NationaltargetsforsolarPVInApril2023,theNationalEnergyAdministrationissuedthe“GuidanceonEnergyWorkin2023”,providingguidanceonthedeploymentofenergyworkinadditiontodevelopmenttargets.Thedocumenthighlightsa160GWtargetfortheannualinstalledcapacityofsolarandwindfor2023,withtheshareofelectricitygeneratedbysolarandwindpowerreaching15.3%ofthecountry’stotalelectricityconsumption.2023willalsobeakeyyearinChina’s14thFive-YearPlan.ThecountrywillconcentrateonconsolidatingtheadvantagesofthePVindustryandexpandingthesupplyofclean,low-carbonenergy.TherewillbeanoverallpushforChinatotransitiontolow-carbonenergy,bothatthelocalandnationallevel.DriversforsolargrowthTheStateCouncilissuedthe“ImplementationPlanonPromotingtheHighQualityDevelopmentofNewEnergyintheNewEra”toprovidepolicysupportfortheindustry.Theconstructionoflargesolarandwindcapacitiesindesertareaswillbringmoreopportunitiestopushtheaccelerationofsolar.Solarpowercanintegrateseamlesslywithvarioussectors,includingconstruction,transportation,andagriculture.Thesedualland-useprojectsallowfortheexplorationofnewPVapplications,furtherbroadeningsolardevelopment.Thecentralisedanddistributedsolarsegmentsarebothbecomingkeypillarstopromotethedevelopmentoftheindustry.Utility-scalevs.distributedandrooftopdevelopmentsIn2022,centralisedPVinstalledcapacityreached36.3GW,accountingfor41.5%ofallinstallations.ThedistributedPVannualinstalledcapacityhit51.1GW,providingtheremaining58.5%share.DistributedPVhasthusbecomethemaindriverbehindthecountry’snewlyinstalledPVcapacity.Theresidentialsegmentinstalled25.3GW,accountingfor49.4%ofinstallations,whiletheC&Isegmentadded25.9GW,accountingfor50.6%ofinstallations.Residentialinstallationsgrewby17.3%from2021.SOURCE:CPIA.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW1.1CHINAANNUALSOLARPVMARKET2018-2022,BYCPIA0102030405060708090100GWDistributedUtility-scale2019202020212022201851.129.815.512.221.036.325.632.717.923.37CapacityvaluesinthisarticlemaybehigherwhenexpressedinDCsincethereisnofixedAC/DCconversionrate.4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202772China’s2022PVmarketwaswell-balanced,andeachmarketsegment–centralised,C&I,andresidential–accountedforaboutone-thirdofthetotalmarket.ChallengesforthemarketTheparticipationofnewenergysourcesinelectricityspotmarkettrading,hascausedfluctuationsinelectricityprices.Unlikemediumandlong-termtrading,spotpowermarkettradingalteredthepreviousbusinessmodel.Additionally,differentprovinceshavedifferentrulesforspotpowertrading,makingitdifficulttopredictPVrevenues,whichisbecominganewchallenge.Inthefuture,underthespotmarketsystem,electricitypriceswillvarybecauseoftimeandspace.Therefore,PVenterprisesneedtobreakawayfromthefixed-priceprofitmodel,andexplorewaystoparticipateinspotmarkettradingofPVpowergeneration.Outlookfortheyears2023-3027NewinstalledcapacitynumberswillgrowrapidlyifPVpowergenerationcostscontinuetofall,andtheglobalgreenrecoverycontinues.In2022,China’sPVindustrymadesignificantprogressbothintermsofmanufacturingandinstallations.TheChinesePhotovoltaicIndustryAssociationexpectsChina’sinstalledPVcapacitytoreach95-120GWin2023.Eachindividualsegmentshouldalsohitnewrecords.Changescanbeexpectedin2023.Withthebalancingofsupplyanddemand,supplychainpriceswillgraduallyreturntoareasonablerange.Secondly,withthedevelopmentofPVtechnologies,productioncapacitywillexpand,andtheproportionofhigh-efficiencycelltechnologieswillincrease.PVcompanieswillhavetoconsidertwofactors.Firstly,industrycompetitionwillintensifyasmoremarketsdeveloptheirlocalPVmanufacturingsupplychains.Secondly,newenergysourceswillcontinuetoparticipateinpowermarkettransactions,andasaresult,companiesmayquestiontherevenuepotentialofPVpowerprojects.Author:ChinaPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation(CPIA).SOURCE:CPIA.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW1.2CHINAPVMARKETSCENARIOS2023-2030,BYCPIA8090100110120130140150GWLowscenarioHighscenario202420252027203020239595100110120120120125130140GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027732.UnitedStatesPoweringforward:ThechallengesandopportunitiesfacingtheUSsolarandstorageindustryin2023OverviewofPVdevelopmentsLastyearwasavolatileyearfortheUnitedStatessolarmarket.Importantfederalpolicychanges,liketheInflationReductionAct(IRA),catalysedawaveofnewsolarinvestmentsandputthesolarmarketinreachoftheambitiouscleanenergygoalssetbytheindustryandtheBidenAdministration.However,policy-drivensupplyconstraints,includingtheUSDepartmentofCommerce’sinvestigationintotariffcircumventionandequipmentdetainmentsbyUSCustomsandBorderProtection,havelimitedsolargrowth.Thishashadamajorimpactontheindustry.AccordingtotheSolarEnergyIndustriesAssociation’s(SEIA)SolarMarketInsightReport2022YearinReview,theUnitedStatesadded20.2GWofnewsolarcapacitylastyear,a16%decreasefrom2021.Thecommercial,community,andutility-scalesolarsegmentswereallaffectedbytradeuncertainty,leadingtoasteepdeclineininstallations.Thecommercialsolarsegmentinstalled1.4GW,6%lesscomparedto2021.Thecommunitysolarsegmentinstalled1GW,falling16%fromthepreviousyear.Installationsfortheutility-scalesegmentcameinat11.8GW,31%below2021levels,andthesegment’slowesttotalsince2019.Bycontrast,residentialsolarwaslessaffectedbysupplychainissuesand700,000homeownersinstallednearly6GWofsolarcapacityin2022,representinga40%increaseover2021.DriversforsolargrowthDespitethebroaderslowdowningrowth,solarremainedthedominantnewsourceofelectricitygenerationcapacityin2022,accountingfor50%ofallnewelectricity-generatingcapacityintheUnitedStates.Thiswasthefourthconsecutiveyearthatsolarwasthetoptechnologyfornewelectricitygeneration.FIGUREGW2.1UNITEDSTATESSOLARPVDEPLOYMENTFORECAST,BYSEIAInstalledCapcity(MWdc)010,00020,00030,00040,00050,000ResidentialCommercialUtilityCommunitySolar20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023e2024e2025e2026e2027eSOURCE:SEIA.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023Thesolarindustryhassetagoaltoreach30%ofUSelectricitygenerationby2030;presently,itisat5%.WoodMackenzieprojectsthatoverthenextdecade,theUS’ssolarcapacitywillgrowto700GWby2033,whichisfivetimeslargerthanitistoday.Thisgrowthisdueinlargeparttothelong-termpolicycertaintycreatedbytheIRA,includingtheten-yearextensionoftheinvestmenttaxcredit(ITC).TheInflationReductionActalsoincludednewincentivesfordomesticsolarmanufacturing.Sincethelaw’spassageinAugust2022,dozensofcompaniesthroughoutthesolarsupplychainhavemademorethan40domesticmanufacturingannouncementsvaluedatmorethan13billionUSD(12billionEUR).Georgia,SouthCarolina,andOhioarequicklybecominghubsforsolarmanufacturing.Communitiesinthesestatesarealreadybeginningtoseethepositiveeconomicimpacts.Today,thesolarindustryemploys255,000USworkers,supportsover10,000solarbusinesses,andisvaluedat35billionUSD(32billionEUR).Theindustry’smanufacturingbaseisexpanding,andconsumerdemandremainsstrong.ChallengesDespitestrongsolargrowthintheUnitedStates,tradepolicychallengescontinuetoinjectuncertaintyintothesolarmarket.TheUSDepartmentofCommerce’sdecisionontariffcircumventionisexpectedinAugust.ThisdecisioncouldthreatensupplychainsthatUSbusinessesrelyonandforcecompaniestopayretroactivedutiesonimportedsolarproducts.WhiletheUSsolarandstorageindustryisworkingtoshiftsupplychainsandbuildoutastrongerdomesticmanufacturingbase,theseongoingtradethreatscoulddelaydeployment.USpolicymakers’resolveinprovidingtransparentandrealistictimelineswillprovedecisiveinwhethertheUSwillachieveitsambitioussolardeploymentgoals.UnderminingtheIRAbyforcingcounterproductivetradepolicyisnottheanswer.Iflawmakersgetthisright,theUSsolarindustrywillbuildacleanenergyfuture,whilecreatingwell-payingjobs,andeconomicopportunitiesincommunitiesacrosstheUnitedStates.Author:TheSolarEnergyIndustriesAssociation(SEIA).4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202774FIGUREGW2.2USSOLARMARKETFORECASTSBEFOREANDAFTERTHEINFLATIONREDUCTIONACT0AnnualUSSolarInstallations(GWdc)Pre-IRAIRA2024202520262027202320221020304050251624283032282033384347SOURCE:SEIA/WoodMackenziePower&RenewablesU.S.SolarMarketInsight2022YearinReview.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027754GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027763.IndiaOverviewofPVdevelopments2022hasbeenaneventfulyearfortheIndiansolarindustry.Indiaaddedaround14GW8ofsolarcapacityin2022,makingittheyearwiththehighestannualcapacityaddition.AttheendofDecember2022,India’scumulativesolarinstallationsstoodat63.5GW,makingIndiatheworld’s5thlargestcountryintermsofinstalledsolarcapacity.Indiahasrevisedits2030solartargetto300GW,outofatotal500GWrenewableenergycapacity.Withthisrevision,Indiawillwitnessasolarcapacityadditionofaround20-30GWeveryyearfrom2023.India’snon-utilityscalesolaralsoexpandedin2022.WhileIndiaaddedaround1.6GWofrooftopsolar,India’scommercialandindustrialsectorsinstalledaround2.5GWofsolarthroughopenaccess,whichisa92%annualincreasefrom2021.Openaccesssolarrepresentscontractsbetweenasolarpowerproducerandconsumer,linkedviaaPowerPurchaseAgreement(PPA).TheIndiangovernmentalsointroducedsomeground-breakingreformswhichshouldaccelerateIndia’ssolarpowercapacityadditions.Segmentsprogressin2022Indiareviseditssolarcapacitytargetsin2014,aimingtoreach60GWofutility-scalesolarby2022.AsofDecember2022,thecountryhadatotalcapacityof53.8GWofutility-scalesolar,therebyachieving90%ofthesettarget.Currently,Indiahas17solarparksinthepipeline,representinganaggregatedcapacityof10GW.In2022about11.3GWofnewutility-scalesolarcapacitywasinstalled,a47%increasefrom2021.In2022,theIndiangovernmentalsoapprovedPhaseIIoftheGreenEnergyCorridor,whichwillfacilitatethegridintegrationandpowertransmissionofapproximately20GWofrenewableenergyprojectsinsevenStates.Powerevacuationreferstotransmissionofpowerfromageneratingplanttothegridforfurthertransmission.ThesevenchosenstatesareGujarat,HimachalPradesh,Karnataka,Kerala,Rajasthan,TamilNadu,andUttarPradesh.Thegoalistoadd10,750circuitkilometresofintra-statetransmissionlines,and27,500MVAsubstationsbyMarch2026.Intotal,thisisestimatedtocost12,031crorerupees(INR),equalto1.34billionEUR;theCentralFinanceAssistance(CFA)willcover33%oftheprojectcost.8AllvaluesinthisarticleareexpressedinAC.FIGUREGW3.1INDIACUMULATIVESOLARPVCAPACITY2008-2022,BYNSEFI0GWAC200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022311369361,6843,0023,7735,1299,00017,05225,21233,73137,46549,34763,50010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000SOURCE:NSEFI.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202777Indiareached8.8GWofcumulativeinstalledsolarrooftopcapacityattheendof2022.ThestateofGujaratledindeploymentwitha24%shareofthetotalsolarrooftopinstallations,followedbyMaharashtra(14%),andRajasthan(9%).In2022,over2GWofsolarrooftoptenderswereissued,representinga90%increase.In2022,India’sPrimeMinisterShriNarendraModilaunchedanation-wideDirectBenefitTransferscheme.Thisschemeallowsconsumerswhowanttoinstallresidentialrooftoptoreceivesubsidieswithin30daysafterDistributionCompany(Discom)officialshaveverifiedthesystem,andthesubmissionofrequireddocuments.Thescheme,developedbytheMinistryofNewandRenewableEnergy,allowsanyresidentialconsumerfromanypartofthecountrytoapplyforrooftopsolarwithoutwaitingforDiscomadministrativeprocesses.InJuly2022theIndiangovernmentimplementedGreenOpenAccessRulesintheC&Isegment,tofurtheracceleratethecountry’sambitiousrenewableenergyprogrammes,withtheobjectiveofensuringaccesstoaffordable,reliable,sustainableandgreenenergyforall.Throughthismeasure,thelimitforopenaccesstransactionswasreducedfrom1MWto100kW;appropriateprovisionshavealsobeencreatedforcross-subsidysurcharges,additionalsurcharges,andstandbycharges.Alltogether,thesemeasureswillhelpconsumersaccessgreenpowerataffordablerates.Throughtheserules,thegovernmentalsoappointedGridIndia(formerlyknownasPowerSystemOperationCorporation,POSOCO)astheCentralNodalAgencytosetupandoperateasinglewindowgreenenergyopenaccesssystemforrenewableenergy.Thispromptedtheindustrytoinstallaround2.5GWofsolaropenaccessin2022,a92%increasefromthe1.3GWinstalledin2021.Indiasetatargettoinstallatotalcapacityof4,886MWofsmallsolarpowerplantsco-locatedwithagriculture,undertheframeworkoftheKUSUMscheme.Theseinstallationsrangebetween500kWand2MW,andareinstalledonornearfarmlandslocatedwithina5kmradiusfromthesubstation.Asof2022,48.2MWofsolarcapacityhasbeeninstalledonornearagriculturefarmlands.LocalmanufacturingTheIndiangovernmentintroducedtheProductionLinkedIncentive(PLI)Schemein2021,withanoutlayof4,500croresrupees(503millionEUR),whichwilladdaround10GWoffullyintegratedsolarmanufacturingcapacitybyDecember2024.Thisschemereceivedaveryencouragingresponse,andwasoversubscribedin2021.Inordertoaccommodatetheincreasingdemandforsolarmodules,thegovernmenthasapprovedasecondtrancheofthescheme(PLIII)in2022.PLIIIhadatotalcostof19,500croresrupees(2.18billionEUR).ThegovernmentrolledoutthebidforthisPLIIIinNovember2022.AsofMarch2023,thegovernmenthasallocatedatotalcapacityof39.6GWofdomesticsolarPVmodulemanufacturingto11companies.©RadianceRenewablesChallengesCOVID-19induceddelaysandpriceescalation.ManyprojectswerebidbeforetheCOVID-19pandemic,buttheirimplementationwasdelayedduetodisruptionsinsupplychainscausedbythepandemic.TheintroductionoftheBasicCustomsDuty(BCD)onApril1,2022,whichimposesa40%dutyonimportedmodulesanda25%dutyonimportedcells,posedachallengefortheprojectsthatwerebidbeforetheannouncementofthedutyonMarch9,2021.Ultimately,projectsfaceanimmensefinancialburdenwiththesehightariffs.Thesolarindustryhasrequestedthegovernmenttoconsider‘grandfathering’thesespecificprojects(ofaround20GW),sothattheycanimportmodulesbasedonpre-BCDrates.Lackoftransmissioninfrastructure.Asthepaceofsolarinstallationsaccelerates,theavailabilityofcommensuratetransmissioninfrastructureisakeychallenge.Thereisasignificantmismatchinthetimelinesforsolarprojectcommissioning,andtransmissionlinecommissioning.ThisissueneedstoberectifiedandalignedforIndiatoachieveitsambitioussolartargets.OutlookToachievethe280GWgoalby2030,Indianeedstoaddapproximately20-30GWofsolarpowereveryyear,beginningfrom2023.InMarch2023,theIndiangovernmentannouncedabiddingtrajectoryforrenewableenergyprojects.TheMinistrywillissuebidsfor50GWofrenewableenergyprojectsannuallyforthefinancialyears2024-28.Moreover,Indiaisontracktobecomeoneofthelargestmanufacturinghubsforsolarproducts,duetotheimplementationofPLIIandPLIIIschemes.Thecountryisexpectedtobuild100GWofsolarmanufacturingcapacityby2027.4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202778SOURCE:NSEFI.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW3.2INDIA’SINCREASINGMANUFACTURINGBASE,BYNSEFIPolysiliconWafer+ingotCellModuleGW202420252026202720232022606021.47541.410040.240.2653.62673.624.824.82.538.21858.2020406080100GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202779AccordingtotheNationalSolarEnergyFederationofIndia(NSEFI),thereshouldbeasignificantincreaseinsolaradoptioninthecountry.Primarily,thiswillbedrivenbymarketforces;Indiaisexpectedtoaddatleast20GW,andpotentiallyupto35GW,ofsolarcapacityeveryyearstartingfrom2023.NSEFIpredictsthatIndiawillsurpassthe100GWofsolarinstalledcapacitybyearly2024,makingitoneofonlyfourcountriesintheworldtoachievethismilestone.Authors:SubrahmanyamPulipaka,CEO;ShubhangParekh,Manager-InternationalRelationsandNewProjects;andAnimishaVerma,NationalSolarEnergyFederationofIndia(NSEFI).SOURCE:NSEFI.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW3.3INDIACUMULATIVESOLARPVINSTALLATIONOUTLOOK,BYNSEFI0GWLowscenarioHighscenario202420252026202720238010212815518290125145180220501001502002504GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027804.BrazilOverviewTheadvancementofsolarisessentialtoBrazil’ssocial,economic,andenvironmentaldevelopment.SolarPVhelpsdiversifythecountry’selectricitysupply,reducespressureonlimitedwaterresources,andmitigatesincreasesinelectricityprices.SolaralsoacceleratesthesustainableenergytransitionofBrazil.In2022,BrazilcontinueditsstrongsolarPVgrowthintwomainmarketsegments:1.Distributedgeneration:small-andmedium-sizedsolarPVsystemsequaltoorbelow5MW,takingpartintheBraziliannationalnet-meteringprogram;and2.Centralisedgeneration:large-scalesolarPVpowerplantsover5MW,thatcommercialisetheirelectricitythroughregulatedmarketauctions,heldbytheFederalGovernment,orthroughbilateralpowerpurchaseagreements(PPAs)inthefreeelectricitymarket.BrazilisbecominganincreasinglyrelevantmarketinsolarPV.Lastyear,thecountryreached25,040MWoftotalinstalledsolarPVcapacityinoperation,surpassingonceagainallofficialgovernmentprojections.In2022,10,809MWwasinstalledintermsofannualcapacityadditions;thisincluded8,290MWindistributedgeneration,and2,519MWincentralisedgeneration.Asaresultofthisimpressivegrowth,in2022,Brazilisrankedasthe4thlargestsolarPVmarketintermsofaddedcapacity,and8thlargestintermsofcumulativecapacity.Thisgrowthhasnotgoneunnoticedbytheinternationalcommunity.Numerousforeignanddomesticentrepreneurs,financialinstitutions,andinvestorshaveestablishedorincreasedtheirpresenceinthecountry,contributingtothegrowthofthemarketandincreasingthetechnology’scompetitiveness.Oneofthekeydriversforsuccessin2022wasthecountry’schangeintheregulatoryenvironmentfordistributedrenewablegeneration.TheapprovalofthedistributedrenewablegenerationLawno.14,300/2022,broughtmorelegalcertainty,stability,andtransparencytothemarket.Yet,thenewrules,comingintoeffectinthebeginningof2023,changedthenet-meteringconditionstoincludeagradualfeefortheuseofthegridwhenelectricityisinjectedintoit.Sincethischangeonlyappliestonewsystemsrequestedfrom2023onwards,itcreatedarushofconsumersandinvestorswhosubmittednewprojectsbeforetheendoftheyear,tobenefitfromtheexistingnet-meteringrules.Asaresult,thedistributedgenerationmarketboomedtorecordnumbers.For2023andbeyond,solarPVdistributedgenerationisexpectedtoremainverycompetitiveduetothecombinationofrisingelectricitypricesandfallingsystemprices.FernandodeNoronhaArchipelago-PE,Brazil.©ABSOLARGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202781Brazilhasalsomadesignificantprogressinlarge-scalesolarPVpowerplants.Since2020,arecordpipelineofnewcentralisedgenerationprojectswasregisteredattheBrazilianElectricityRegulatoryAgency(ANEEL),mostlytargetingthefreeelectricitymarket.Morethan107GWoflarge-scalesolarpowerplantshavealreadybeengrantedbyANEEL,reflectingtheprivatesector’sstronginterestinacceleratingsolardealsinthecountry.SolarPVForecastTheBrazilianSolarPhotovoltaicEnergyAssociation(ABSOLAR)forecastsarobustmarketperformanceforsolarin2023,drivenbythehighcostofelectricity,andthebenefitsprovidedtoconsumers.Thesebenefitsareastrategicsolutiontoreduceelectricitycosts,andstrengthenthecountry’ssustainability.SolarPVisalreadythemostcompetitiveelectricitysourceinthecountry,andisbecomingincreasinglypopulartoalleconomicclasses,withapositivemultipliereffectinthesociety.AccordingtoABSOLARandbasedonofficialprojectionsfromtheBrazilianEnergyResearchOffice(EPE),solarPVmayreachbetween49,268MW(ConservativeScenario),and60,910MW(OptimisticScenario)ofcumulativeinstalledcapacityby2027.Fordistributedgeneration,theaccumulatedinstalledcapacityuntil2027mayreachbetween26,728MWand35,121MW.Forcentralisedgeneration,ABSOLARprojectsanaverageyearlycapacityadditionofbetween3,078MWand3,728MWuntil2027.Combiningbothdistributedandcentralisedgeneration,thetotalyearlyforecastisbetween4,846MWand7,174MWofsolarPVaddedcapacityonaveragebetween2023and2027.FIGUREGW4FORECASTOFSOLARPVCUMULATIVEINSTALLEDCAPACITYINBRAZIL,BYABSOLAR3035404550556065Installedcapacity(GW)2023202420252026202735.132.540.537.146.241.452.945.260.949.3SOURCE:ABSOLAR(2023)andofficialprojectionsfromEPE(2022).©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023DistributedSolarConservativeScenario(MW)20,72023,35925,27026,11826,728DistributedSolarOptimisticScenario(MW)23,38926,31528,91931,88035,121CentralisedSolarConservativeScenario(MW)11,78113,75716,14719,04022,540CentralisedSolarOptimisticScenario(MW)1178114,21117,24821,04425,789TotalConservativeScenario(MW)32,50137,11641,41745,15849,268TotalOptimisticScenario(MW)35,17040,52646,16752,92460,9104GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202782ChallengesandopportunitiesDespitethisverypositiveforecast,thefutureofsolarPVinBrazilisstillfacingchallenges.Oneofthemainbottlenecksisthelackoftransmissioninfrastructureincertainregions,whichhaslimitedthedevelopmentofnewlarge-scaleprojects.Distributedgenerationisfacingasimilarissue,withdifficultiesconnectingtothedistributiongrid.ABSOLARhasbeenworkingwiththeFederalGovernmentandtheregulatoryagencytofindsolutionsfortheseproblems.TofurtherunlocktheimmenseBraziliansolarpotential,itisessentialtostructuregoodpublicpolicies,programmesandincentives,atthefederal,state,andmunicipallevels.ConsideringthenewFederalGovernment’sfocusonsocialandenvironmentaldevelopments,ABSOLARisrecommendingtheuseofsolarPVinsocialprograms,suchasinlow-incomehousesthroughthe”MinhaCasaMinhaVida”programme,andsolarPVoff-gridsystemsthroughthe”LuzparaTodos”and”MaisLuzparaaAmazônia”programmes.Additionally,theassociationproposestheuseofthetechnologyinpublicbuildings,suchasschools,hospitals,healthcentres,policestations,libraries,museumsandparks,amongstothers.Withthesemeasures,theFederalGovernmentwouldalsoleadbyexample,strengtheningBrazil’sinternationalsustainabilityreputation.Regardinglargesolarpowerplants,ABSOLARproposesthattheFederalGovernmentprioritisesolarPVinelectricityauctions,sinceitisthemostcompetitiveelectricitysourceinthecountry,anditcanhelpreducetariffsforallBrazilians.ThegrowthofsolarPVstrengthensthecompetitivenessandsustainabilityofallBrazilianproductivesectorsandconsumers,whichareincreasinglyimportantfactorsforthecountry’seconomyandtoachieveitsenvironmentalcommitments.Inadditiontosolar,Brazilhasanimmenseuntappedpotentialinenergystorageandgreenhydrogen.AstudycarriedoutbytheconsultancyMcKinseyin2021indicatesthatgreenhydrogenalonemaybringmorethan200billionUSDinnewinvestmentstothecountryinthenext20years.Solarenergyholdsanimmensepotentialforallsectorsofsociety,andtheenvironment.Thesectorisreadytodoevenmoreandcollaboratetoadvancesocialprogrammesandenergytransitionpoliciesinthecountry.Consideringtheseimportantopportunitiesandchallenges,ABSOLARwillcontinuetodefendBrazil’ssolarPV,energystorageandgreenhydrogensectors,andwillcontinuetodevelopandimplementstrategicrecommendationstogeneratewidespreadsustainablegrowthinthecountry.Authors:Dr.RodrigoLopesSauaia,CEO;RafaelFranciscoMarques,TechnicalandRegulatorySpecialist;ABSOLAR.GeisseWinery.RioGrandedoSul-RS,Brazil.©ABSOLARGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027835.SpainThechallengestoourfutureSolarpowerisenteringamaturityphaseinSpain:witharound8.4GWofannualinstalledcapacityin2022,thecountryexperienceditsbestyeareverforsolarPVdeployment,becomingthelargestEuropeanPVmarketin2022.Since2020,over18GWhasbeeninstalled,leadingtoa156%increaseofthesolarPVoperatingfleetinthelast3years.Spain’sleadershipintherenewablePPAmarket,thedevelopmentofPVcapacityassignedinpreviousrenewableauctions,thegeostrategicchallengedrivenbytheRussianinvasionofUkrainerelatedtosecurityofsupply,andthegrowthofrooftopPV,arethemainfactorscontributingtotheacceleratingsolarmarket.However,thereisnoroomforcomplacency:bothpolicymakersandindustrywillhavetoactivelyprotectthecountry’sGW-sizeindustry.DriversofsolargrowthFollowingaprocessthatlastedseveralyears,theSpanishParliamentapprovedtheClimateChangeActinMay2021,fixingadualtargetforrenewablesin2030:a42%shareinfinalenergyconsumption,anda74%shareinelectricitygeneration.Thelawalsoincludesaclausetorevise(onlyupwards)thetargetsin2023.Inordertomeetthesetargets,theSpanishNationalClimateandEnergyPlan(NECP)currentlyforeseesasolarPVcapacityashighas39.2GWin2030.In2023,thisplanisbeingrevisedupwards,andnewobjectivesforsolarPVcapacitymayincrease,inarangefrom50to65GW.ThemaindriverforsolargrowthinSpainisitscompetitiveness,inbothground-mountedplantsandself-consumption.Forground-mountedplants,theeconomiccompetitivenessofthetechnology(favouredbyeconomiesofscale),theterrain,andsolarresourceavailabilityofover1,900-2,000kWh/kWpperyear,aswellastheregulatorystabilityofrecentyears,havefosteredasupportiveecosystemwhichhasattractedtheinterestofdifferentactors.Theseincludenationalutilities,Europeanutilities,companiesfromtheoil&gassector,independentpowerproducers(IPPs),solardevelopers,investmentfunds,etc.Asaresultofthisecosystem,aconsiderablenumberofdevelopersandIPPshavedeployedGW-sizeportfolioswhichhavebeensoldtonewcomersalsopursuingbrownfielddevelopment.Significantactivityinmergersandacquisitions(M&A)ismakingSpainoneofthelargestsectorsinEuropefortransactionsinrenewables.InadditiontoM&Aoperations,severalcompaniesareconsideringgoingpublic,highlightingthestrongpotentialofSpanishsolarcompanies.PPAshavebeenamainfactorinthisrecentdevelopment.Alllarge-scalesolarcapacitycommissionedduring2020(3.5GW),2021(4.3GW)and2022(5.3GW),hasbeendevelopedwithoutanytypeof©UNEF4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202784publicaidorregulatoryscheme,andallthroughPPAsormerchantprojects.ThestabilityofferedbyPowerPurchaseAgreementsisnowmorevaluablethanever.TherooftopPVmarketisdevelopingatanacceleratedpace.Aftertheremovalofthe‘SunTax’onself-consumptionin2018,thecurrentframeworkwasonlyachievedin2020,withtheintroductionofautomaticsurplusremuneration,pluscollectiveandthrough-the-networkfacilities.Bothcompaniesandtheend-consumermarkethavebeengraduallygainingpacesincethen.RooftopPVhadalreadybeenincreasingstronglyinpreviousyears(+551MWin2019,+715MWin2020).However,asubstantialgrowthlevelwasreachedin2021,whenthismarketsegmentgrew102%year-on-yearexceedingtheGW-levelwith1,444MWofannualinstalledcapacity.Thistrendcontinuedin2022,withanother108%increaseyear-on-year,reaching3,008MW.Thisspectaculargrowthwasespeciallystrongintheindustrialsegment,whichaccountedfor47%ofthetotal.Thehighelectricitypricesof2022,andthetaxincentivesofmanymunicipalities,encouragedmanyhouseholdsandbusinessesacrossthecountrytobecomeself-consumers.Onthepolicyside,themaindriverforthedevelopmentofthesectoristheRoadmapofSelf-Consumption,approvedinDecember2021.Thedocumentincludesmeasurestofosterthissegment,andestimatesthepotentialofself-consumptionin2030asbetween9and14GW.Furthermore,in2022,severalpolicieshavebeendevelopedtoimproveself-consumptiondeployment;inMarch2022,10%ofgridaccesshasbeenreservedforself-consumption,plusRoyalDecree18/2022hasimprovedthepermittingprocessforsmallself-consumptioninstallations.UnderSpain’sNationalRecoveryandResiliencePlan,rooftopPVisconsideredapriorityareainfacilitatingtheenergytransition.Infact,inMay2022,thegovernmenthasamendedRoyalDecree477/2021,doublingthe450millionEURallocatedtothesectorin2021.Asmentioned,themaindrivingforceforrooftopPVisthehighwholesaleelectricityprices,servingasawake-upcallforindustrialandcommercialplayers,aswellasforhouseholds.Allthesesegmentsarelookingatsolarasameanstodecreasetheirenergybillsthroughtheuseofaffordableandgreenself-consumedelectricity.Additionally,inresponsetoRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,theSpanishgovernmentintroducedasetofmeasuresinApril2022todecreasefossilfueldependencies,curbenergyprices,andspeedupthedeploymentofrenewables.Thepackageofmeasuresincludes,amongothers,aregulatoryframeworkforfloatingPV,acceleratedproceduresforPVparksbelow150MW,strengtheneddistributiongridcapacitytoabsorb7GWofself-consumptionsystems,andregulationsforthepipelinesofrenewablegases,includingrenewablehydrogen.FIGUREGW5.1SPAINSELF-CONSUMPTIONPVCAPACITYINSTALLEDIN2021-2022(MW)14.1MW;1%591.9MW;41%375.3MW;26%462.0MW;32%2021CommercialResidentialIndustrialOff-grid30.1MW;1%1,413.9MW;47%601.7MW;20%962.7MW;32%2022GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202785SOURCE:UNEF.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW5.2SPAINSOLARPVINSTALLEDCAPACITY2020-2022,BYUNEF05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000Installedcapacity(MW)Cumulativeself-consumptionCumulativeground-mountedplants2021202220201,8473,2906,29914,02818,22323,675Intermsofoutlook,expectationsarealsoverypositive.Intheground-mountedsegment,aspreviouslystated,thenewlyinstalledcapacityreached5.4GWin2022,inlinewithourpreviousforecasts,andcontinuedtorelyuponPPAs.Recently,alargenumberofnewprojectsobtainedtheirenvironmentalpermitsandarelikelytobeinstalledinthecurrentyear.Nevertheless,thedeploymentofnewpowergenerationformground-mountedplantswilldependonthedesignoftherenewableauctionsforeseenby2023,asinflationratesandpricesarerising.FortherooftopPVsegment,in2022,themarketgrewsignificantly,bymorethan100%againyear-on-year,andsurpassedthe3GWbarrier,mainlydriven,assaidbefore,bynationalrecoveryplanfundsandhighelectricityprices.ChallengesInrelationtoground-mountedplants,itisclearthatthehigherthevolumeofprojectsunderdevelopment,thelargertheburdenoncompanies,authorities,localcommunitiesandotherstakeholders.ThisgeneraleffectisincreasedbytheRoyalDecree-law23/2020,whichimposesstrictdeadlinesonplantsunderdevelopment:allprojectswithnetworkaccesspermitsinforcewhenthedecreewasapprovedhadtoobtaintheirenvironmentalauthorisationbefore25January2023.Thisdeadlineobligedcompaniestorapidlyadvancetheirpermittingprocedures,andputstrongpressureontheadministrativeauthorities,whichstruggledtoprocessthevolumeoffiles.Asaresult,around30GWofrenewabletechnologiesreceivedanenvironmentalauthorisationandarelikelytobedeployedwithinthenextthreeyears.Nevertheless,theprojectsarestillwaitingfortheiradministrativeandconstructionpermitsthatneedtobeobtainedbefore25July2023,otherwisetheprojectswillbedismissed;thesearekeymilestonesneededtofullydeploythepowerplants.In2022Spainheldtwoauctions(3rdand4thauctions).Whilethe3rdauctionwasasmallauctionthatawarded31MWatanaveragepriceof53.88EUR/MWh,the4thactionwaswhollyundersubscribedandendedemptyasthereservepricesetbythegovernment,at45.12EUR/MWh,waswellbelowthesector’sexpectationsataround60EUR/MWh.Intheupcomingauctionsexpectedin2023,auctiondesignneedstoimprovetoattractinterestfromdevelopers.Onthelocalcommunities’side,thesheervolumeofprojectsgoingthroughlocalpermitting(amountingto2-3timestheNECPtargets),isgeneratingaNIMBYeffect,i.e.a‘notinmybackyard’mentality.Certainlocalassociationsareopposingutility-scalerenewableplants,requiringasignificantcommunicationeffortfromcompaniesandUNEF,aboutthebenefitsofsolarpoweronlanduseandbiodiversity.ForrooftopPV,themainchallengeisthelengthofpermittingtimes(bothattheadministrativeandnetworklevel),duetodivergingprocessesacrossmunicipalities,andreducedpermitexemptionsfornetworkaccessforrooftopPV.Inaddition,delaysintheimplementationofthenationalrecoveryplans’supportprogrammesareslowingdownconsumersanddevelopers’decision-makingprocesses,whoarenowwaitingforthefundstobeavailableintheirregion.AnotherimportantchallengeforPVdevelopment,bothground-mountedplantsandrooftopPV,isthelackofaskilledlabourforcewhichisdrivinganincreaseinsalaries.Governmentprofessionaltrainingprogrammesmustadapttothosenewmarketdevelopments.Increasingelectricitypricesarealsodrivinginflationrates,whicharehavinganimpactonprojects’profitability.Furthermore,SpainmustaccelerateitsregulatoryframeworkrelatedtostorageincentivesasproposedbyUNEF.ConclusionsSpain’shighNECPtargets,andthesuccessofthenationalsolarpowermarketcallforexcellencefromallparties:companies,theadministration,andpolicymakers.Inotherwords,ourambitionhastoovercomeourchallengestomaintainthesupportivesolarecosystemthathasplacedSpaininthegroupoftheworld’stop10largestmarkets.Onthepolicyside,itiskeytoensureregulatorystability,andtoeliminateremainingbarriersbystreamliningadministrativeprocedures,andnetworkaccess,especiallyforsmallerPVplantsandself-consumptionprojects.Onthesectorside,companiesneedtorespondtothegrowingNIMBYeffect,andpresentprojectswiththehigheststandardsintermsofenvironmentalsustainability,positivesocialimpacts,andtransparency.Authors:JoséDonoso,DirectorGeneral,UniónEspañolaFotovoltaica(UNEF).4GW-scalemarkets/continuedInnovativesolutionsforPVmountingsystems130Installedinover130countries2727GWofinstalledcapacityworldwide1919yearsofsolarexperience•Easytoinstall,robustsystemsforalltypesofroofs•DigitaltoolsfromplanningthroughdocumentationConnectingStrengthk2-systems.comGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027876.GermanyPVinstallationsreachnewpeaksdespiteadversityOverviewofsolarPVdevelopmentsAccordingtothedatabaseoftheGermanFederalNetworkAgency(Bundesnetzagentur,BNetzA),atotalof2.74GWofsolarPVhasalreadybeenputintooperationinGermanyinthefirstquarterof2023,whileatotalof7.4GWofsolarPVhadbeenputintooperationin2022.9Oftheseprojects,over6.5GWbenefittedfromvariousschemeswithinthecountry’sRenewableEnergySourcesAct(EEG).DespitedisruptionstointernationalsupplychainsandhavingtodealwiththeramificationsofGermany’spartialdependenceonRussiangas,GermanyreachedthehighestpeaksinmonthlysolarPVadditionssince2012.Thepreviousyear’shighestmonthlyadditionof844MWinMarch2022hasbeenupstagedbytherecentadditionof1,096MWofsolarPVinMarch2023.Overall,thefirstquarterof2023showssteadysolarmarketgrowth,with40%moreinstalledcapacitythanthefirstquarterof2022,whichinturnshowed39%growthcomparedtothesameperiodin2021.ThistrendimpliesacontinuousgrowthpathforsolarPVinGermany.10Moreover,theGermancorporaterenewablePowerPurchasingAgreement(PPA)marketismaturing,withrooftopPPAadditionsin2022doublingto124MWcomparedtothepreviousyear,andground-mountedPPAadditionsincreasingfrom296MWin2020to640MWin2021,and742MWin2022.Furthermore,severalGWofmerchantsolarPVparksofover10MW,outsidetheRenewableEnergySourcesAct(EEG)scheme,areintheprojectpipeline.SolarPVtargetsanddriversofgrowthinGermanyWith70.3GWofsolarPVinoperationattheendofMarch2023,GermaninstalledcapacityremainsthehighestinEurope.Germanyseekstofulfilthecommitmentofitsgovernmentcoalitionformedattheendof2021toreach22GWofyearlyinstalledsolarPVby2026targetingatotalinstalledPVcapacityof215GWby2030.Theso-called‘EasterPackage’adoptedinJuly2022establishedtheseambitioustargetswithanaimtoreachcloseto400GWby2040.Inthecasethatthecurrentyearlygrowthtrendcontinues,theannualcapacityof9GWenvisagedbytheFederalMinistryforEconomicAffairsandClimateActionfor2023wouldindeedbereached,orevenexceeded.SinceJune2021,theClimateProtectionActhasalsosetabindingpathtoclimateneutralityin2045,whileinterimGHGemissionreductiontargetshavebeenraisedto65%by2030andto88%by2040.Accordingly,thetargetshareofrenewableenergieshasbeenraisedfrom65%to80%oftheelectricitydemandby2030,withfulldecarbonisationby2035.InJanuary2021,theformergovernmenthadalreadyintroducedanationalexpansiontotheEU-wideEmissionTradingSystem(EUETS)coveringheatingandtransportfuels.StartingwithaCO2priceof25EURpertonne,priceswillincreaseeachyearupto55EURpertonnein2025leadingtoanauctionsystemwhoselong-termCO2priceflooristargetedtostabiliseat60EUR.Theyear2022canjustifiablybeconsideredawatershedmomentintheGermanenergytransition.WithanewcoalitionandambitioustargetsinplacebutadditionalconstraintsarisingfromRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,thecommitmentofGermanpolicymakerstosupportsolarwastested.Thegovernmentcoalition’ssubsequentvowtoincreaseeffortstospeeduptheenergytransitionandtolowerRussiangasimportsdemonstrateditsdeterminationtostayitscourse.ThenewlycombinedFederalMinistryforEconomicAffairsandClimateAction(BMWK)consequentlyreactedtothegeopoliticalcrisiswithswiftamendmentstoGermany’sEEG2021regulationandanewEEG2023regulationpackage.Withsimilarcommitment,solarbusinessesacrosstheentirevaluechainovercamesupplychainhurdlestoinstallacapacityjustshyoftheall-timehighestannualvalueinGermany’ssolarhistory,providingconsumerswithresilientenergysolutionsthatsavedcitizenssignificantelectricitycosts.Meanwhile,afterhavingtheiroperationtimeextendedby4months,thelastthreenuclearplantsinGermanywereclosedinApril2023.ThiseventmarksGermany’sdetachmentfromnuclearfissiontechnology.9InlinewithrecommendationsbytheBNetzAandthelatestrevisionstotheirdatabase,solarPVadditionsarecomputedbasedonthedateofinitialoperation.Therefore,minordeviationsfrompreviouslycalculatedvaluesbasedonreportingdatesmayoccur.Thisincludestheaggregateadditionfortheyear2022,whichcanstillbesubjecttofurtherrevisionsandwouldhavebeenclosertopreviouspredictionswithroughly7.5GWaccordingtothepreviousmethodology.10ThiseffectisamplifiedbythefactthatnumerousPVinstallations(oratleastconnections)mayhavebeenpostponedfromDecember2022tothefollowingyeartobenefitfromhigherfeed-in-tariffsgrantedfrom01.01.23onwardsduetoadjustedEEG2023regulations.Thismakesextrapolationsofthefirstquartergrowthforaprojectionofannualcapacityadditionsdifficult.A33%increaseoverthe2022capacityadditionof7.4GWwouldyieldalmost10GW.4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202788SOURCE:EEG2023,BMWK.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW6GERMANYPVCAPACITYTARGETS2023-2035,BYBSW-SOLAR0510152025Annualcapacity,GW050100150200250300350Cumulativecapacity,GWAnnualcapacityAnnualtargetEEG2023Milestone20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035MediumScenario309913182288128172225TomeettheabovetargetsandfosterGermany’ssolarPVambitions,severalauxiliarymeasureswereadoptedoverthecourseof2022.AsofJuly2022,theEEG2023increasedtheexcesssolarpowerfeed-inforsmallrooftopsystemsto0.086EUR/kWh,andthefullfeed-intariffto0.134EUR/kWhwiththemonthlyFITdegressionmechanismfrozenuntil2024,afterwhichitwillrestartwithincreasesof1%at6-monthintervals.ThefullFITbonusisaimedatinvestorswhosepropertieshavelittleornoself-consumptionneedsandencouragesmaximumusageofavailableroofspace.Likewise,thefeed-intariffforground-mountedandotherPVsystemshasbeenincreasedto0.07EUR/kWhfromroughly0.04EUR/kWhandeligibilityhasbeenextendedtosystemsupto1MW.Moreover,therenewableenergysurcharge(‘EEGUmlage’)of0.037EUR/kWhhasbeenremovedasofJuly2022.ThismeansthatoperatorsofPVplantsnolongerhavetopaythissurchargeforself-consumedsolarpower.ItalsomeansthattheEEGremunerationforthedevelopmentofrenewableenergieswillbefinancedsolelybytheFederalEnergyandClimateFundandbyrevenuesfromtheETS.Laterin2022,solarPVsystemswithlessthan30kWwerealsograntedaVATexemption,atleastreducingtheadministrativeburdenforowners,andallowinginstallerstoremovetheVATcomponentfromtheirsalespitchesandinvoicesentirely.Smallsolarsystemsofupto600Wbenefitfromsimplifiedgridconnectionproceduresand‘balconysolar’becameaveritabletrendinGermanywithover250,000systemsand100MWinstalled,halfofwhichisaccountedforinthemarketregisteraccordingtoBMWKfigures.Furtherlegislativeamendmentsarepoisedtoincreasethethresholdto800Wandtoallowgridconnectionviasimpleelectricitysockets.Lastly,bottlenecksinthecertificationofsolarPVsystemsabove135kWcouldbealleviatedtosomedegreebymeansofatemporarycertificategrantingtentativegridaccessasrequestedbystakeholdersandassociations.Theattempttotaxwindfallprofitsthrougharevenuelevywasrestrictedtoalimitedtimewindowandnotappliedretroactivelyasoriginallyplanned.RevenuecapsneverthelesshavethepotentialtocurbtheprofitsthatarisefromfavourablemarketconditionsGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202789andthatinvestorsbankon.Theireventualimplementationthereforeirritatedinvestorswhoconsiderad-hocrevenuecapsasathreattoinvestmentsecurity.Inlightoftheineffectivenessoftheimplementedcapduetosinkingenergyprices,theBMWKhasconsequentlyannouncedtoletthemeasurefadeoutattheendofJune2023.Afteranin-depthconsultationprocesswithstakeholdersandassociationsoverseveralmonths,theBMWKreleaseditsdraftforanevenmorecomprehensivePhotovoltaicStrategyon5thMay2023.ThisstrategywillbecastintoregulationsandamendmentsmeanttofacilitatesolarPVdeployment,reducebureaucraticburdensandaccelerategridconnections,amongmanyotheraspects.Solartrends:Tenders,utility-scalesolarandstorageSinceJanuary2023,solarPVinstallationsbelow1MWhavebeenexemptedfrommandatoryparticipationintenders,liftingtheprevious750kWthreshold.Germanycurrentlyhastwotypesoflarge-scaleauctionswhosetendersarespecificallydesignedforsolarPVprojects.Thefirstsegmentrepresentsatechnology-specifictenderforground-mountedprojectsbetween1and20MW(in2023upto100MW),andthesecondoneisatenderforrooftopsystemsabove1MW.Besidesthis,thereisanauctionwithtworoundsofapproximately400MWforinnovativesystems.Withinthefirstsegmentforground-mountedprojects,threetenderstookplacein2022.ThefirstoneinMarch2022awardedavolumeof1,083MWatanaveragebiddingpriceof0.052EUR/kWhandexhaustedtheauctionedvolume,whereastheremainingtendersawarded696MWinJuneand609MWinNovember,withthelatterconcludingatanaveragebiddingpriceof0.058EUR/kWh.Inreactiontothesetworoundsbeingheavilyundersubscribedat62%of1,126MWand68%of890MW(duetothevolumeincreasesandmaximumbidsnotreflectingrisingsystempricesandfinancingcosts),stakeholdersandassociationspushedforhighermaximumbids.Thisinitiativeprovedsuccessful;raisingthemaximumbidfrom0.059EUR/kWhto0.074EUR/kWhimmediatelyledtoa50%oversubscribedauctioninMarch2023awarding1.952GWatanaveragebiddingpriceof0.071EUR/kWh.Likewise,therooftoptendersin2022wereseverelyundersubscribedbeforeanadjustmentofthemaximumbiddingpricefrom0.089EUR/kWhto0.113EUR/kWhledtoanalmostexhaustedtenderinFebruary2023.Thecombinedvolumeofthesetenderswillbeover6GWin2023,adjustedforforfeitedsuccessfulbidsandvolumesfrompastauctions,andwillincreaseto9GWby2027.FollowingtheEEGrevision,thesubsidiesforthedevelopmentofAgri-PVnowfallunderthelarge-scaleauctioninsteadoftheinnovationtenders.TheavailableareasforAgri-PVhavealsobeenincreased.21.1MW,BadLiebenwerda,Brandenburg,Germany.©BayWar.e.4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202790AccordingtoSolarPowerEurope’sEuropeanMarketOutlookforResidentialBatteryStorage2022–2026andthelatestBSW-Solarcalculations,GermanycontinuestobethekeyEuropeanmarketforhomebatteries.Whilein2021approximately140,000unitswithastoragecapacityofover1.3GWhhadbeeninstalled,2022sawtheinstallationof214,000unitswithatotalstoragecapacityof1.9GWhincreasinglyintandemwithPVsystems.ThelatestamendmentstotheEnergyIndustryActinJune2021includedtheremovalofdoublechargesandleviestobatterysystems,enablingbetterutilisationofbatteries’flexibilitypotentialintheenergysystem.Forthenext5years,GermanyisexpectedtoremainEurope’sbiggestmarketforresidentialbatteriesduetoaverystrongsolarmarketandhighretailpowerprices,combinedwithhighdemandforEVsandaquicklyincreasingnumberofsolarsystemsdroppingoutofthe20-yearlongFITscheme.ChallengesTheregulatoryinitiativesrelatedtotheEEG2021andEEG2023frameworkshaveliftedseveralbarrierstothedeploymentofsolarPVinGermany.Withthethresholdformandatoryauctionsnowraisedto1MW,theremovaloftheEEGsurchargeandincreasedFITrates,therooftopsegmentisontracktobeamajorcontributortothecountry’sambitiontobeclimateandenergyindependent.Afirstchallengeconcernstheproposaltolimitprofitmarginsthrougharevenuecap,asthishascreateduncertaintyinthemarketandisdisincentivisinginvestmentsatatimewhentheyaremostneeded.Secondly,identifyingsuitableareasandreceivingpermitstodeveloplargeutility-scalevolumesrepresentsapersistentchallenge.Thirdly,evenifAgri-PVisnowpartofthelarge-scaletenderscheme–insteadoftheinnovationtender–thebonusallocatedforAgri-PViscurrentlyinsufficient.Nonetheless,Germany’smajormarketsegmentsareonapromisinggrowthpath.Thisleadstoinstallersandothersolarbusinesseshiringadditionaltalent.Thereisaneedforextraworkforceinthesector.Additionally,establishingsufficientEuropeansolarmanufacturingcapacitiesacrosstheentirevaluechainisneededtoincreaseresilienceandguaranteethatlocalstakeholderspartakeinthewindfallgainsgeneratedinthepowersectorbytherapidgrowthofsolarPVdeploymentforeseenintheGermanmarket.Finally,gridcongestionisahurdlethatmustbeaddressed.Providingadditionalflexibilitythroughsmartdigitalsolutionsandstoragecanalleviategridexpansionpressure,whilethestimulationoftheC&IrooftopsegmentaswellascontinuedsupportfortheadoptionofPPAscomplementthis.Thegovernmentcoalitionhasdemonstrateditswillingnesstoreadjustregulationswhendeploymenttargetsareinjeopardy.ThePhotovoltaicStrategyannouncedinMayhasthepotentialtoacceleratethisdeploymentevenfurtherbyremovingobstructivelegacies.Withelectionscomingupin2025,aswellasresidentialandprocessheatingtakingmuchofthespotlightinthewakeofgassupplydisruptions,thepoliticalcapitalavailableforprogressivesolarPVpolicieshastobefullyactivatedwithinthecomingmonths.Thekeytocontinueddeploymentinlinewiththetargetof215GWby2030isthereforegettingallthepiecesofthepuzzletogetherquickly.Thisincludesincentivisinginvestorstobringsolarontounusedresidentialrooftops,establishsolarenergyastheleadingmeanstodecarboniseheatingandexhausttenderedcapacitiesforutility-scalesolarplantsaswellasC&Irooftops.Toinstall145GWoverthenext8years,thereareadditionalhurdlestobetackled.Theseincludesmoothingpermittingprocesses,educatingasufficientnumberofinstallers,electriciansandotherskilledworkersfortheenergytransition,aswellaskeepingthelocalacceptanceashighasitcurrentlyis.11Lastly,increasingtheresilienceofthesolarsupplychainincooperationwiththeEUanditsMemberStatescanthensafeguardtheenergytransitionagainstgeopoliticaluncertaintyandvolatility.Authors:AlexanderRohlf&ChristianMenke,BundesverbandSolarwirtschafte.V.(BSW-Solar).11ApprovalforrooftopsolarinGermanyiscurrentlyabove90%andsolarground-mountedsystemsenjoythehighestacceptanceoutofallutility-scalerenewableenergyapplicationsaccordingtorecentAriadneProjectsurveys(“SozialesNachhaltigkeitsbarometerderEnergie-undVerkehrswende2022”).GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027917.JapanOverviewofPVdevelopmentsHavingachievedrecordcapacityadditionof10.8GWin2015,theJapanesePVmarkethasbeenonadowntrendfollowingthereducedFITsupportforsolarPV.In2022,Japaninstalledaround6.5GWofnewsolarPVcapacity,roughlythesamecapacityasin2021.Thecumulativeinstalledcapacityattheendof2022reached84.9GW.EvenwiththereducedFITsupport,Japan’sPVmarketisexpectedtostarttrendingupwardagainfrom2023,duetothegrowthinresidentialandindustrialrooftopmarkets,andnewcorporaterenewablePowerPurchasingAgreement(PPA)models.Japan’semissionsreductiontargetof46–50%by2030willrequirealargeincreaseintheshareofrenewableenergy,inparticularsolarPV.Japanesesolarandrenewableenergytargets•Thegovernment’sPVtarget:Accordingtothe‘Long-termEnergySupplyandDemandOutlook’(EnergyOutlook)publishedbytheMinistryofEconomy,TradeandIndustry(METI)in2015,thecumulativeinstalledPVcapacitytargetfor2030was80GW.This‘old’targetwasincreasedbyMETItoaround147GW(118GWAC)initsmostambitiousscenariotomeetthenewcarbonreductiontargetofupto50%by2030.•RenewableEnergyTarget:InJuly2021,METIannouncednewplanstosignificantlyincreasetherenewablepartofitsenergygenerationmixto36-38%by2030,from20-22%before.•JapanPhotovoltaicEnergyAssociation’s(JPEA)vision(PVOUTLOOK2050):InJPEA’sPVOUTLOOK2050,releasedinMay2020,thecumulativeinstalledPVcapacitywasexpectedtobearound120GW(100GWAC)in2030.However,inaccordancewiththenewnationalGHGreductiontarget,JPEAhasrevisedthis120GWtargetupwardsto154GW(125GWAC)by2030.Thisnew,ambitioustarget–whichis7GWhigherthanMETI’sprojection–means,onaverage,thataround8.6GWsolarPVwillhavetobeinstalledeveryyearfrom2023until2030.DriversforsolargrowthinJapanTheFITschemehasbeenthestrongestdriverofsolargrowthinJapansinceitsintroductioninJuly2012.However,therelevanceofthisFITschemehasFIGUREGW7JAPANESESOLARPVMARKETSCENARIOS2023-2027(DC),BYJPEAGW024681012HistoricaldataJPEA'sPVOutlook2050202220232024202520262027201720162015201820192020202110.86.56.58.8©SOLARPOWEREUROPE20234GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202792decreased,andamoremarket-orientedFeedinPremium(FIP)hasbeenintroducedinApril2022.Insteadofsettingafixedfeed-intariffrate,theFIPschemeallocatesacertainamountofpremiuminadditiontothewholesaleelectricityprice.Thisway,theremunerationlevelisconnectedtothecurrentelectricityprices.ThenewFIT/FIPschemeisexpectedtobeanewdriverforsolardemand.Underthenewframework,largerprojectswillbesubjecttotheFIPremuneration,whiletheFITismaintainedforsmallersystems.The‘self-consumptionbusinessmodel’forcommercialandindustrialusersisgrowingrapidlyinJapan.On-site,self-consumptionPVsystemsarebecomingmoreattractivetobusinessusers,astheLCOEofPVpowergenerationisalreadycompetitivewiththeretailelectricitypricesofcommercialandindustrialusers.AnadditionaldrivertosolargrowthstemsfrompoliciessettingPVmandatesfornewbuildings.TheTokyoMetropolitanGovernment,andKawasakiCity,willmakeitmandatorytoinstallPVsystemsonnewbuildings,includingdetachedhouses,startingin2025.Ifsimilarinstallationmandatesspreadtomunicipalitiesacrossthecountry,thePVmarket,especiallyresidentialrooftop,willexpandsignificantly.Inadditiontotheneedsofrenewableenergyusers,thePPAmodelisbeginningtogaintractionintheJapanesePVmarket,drivenbygovernmentsubsidiesandrisingelectricityprices.Utility-scalevs.distributed&rooftopsolardevelopmentsIn2022,newresidentialPV(below10kW)capacityadditionstotalled1.0GW,upfrom0.8GWin2021.Weexpectthissegmenttogrowfurther,supportedbytheFITandvarioussubsidiesfornet-zeroenergyhouses(ZEH),batterysystems,etc.Beyond2025,municipalPVinstallationmandatesfornewbuildings,includingthosefromtheTokyoMetropolitanGovernmentandKawasakiCity,couldbeastrongdriverofresidentialrooftopmarketgrowth.DistributedsolarPVunder1MW,mostlyground-mounted,isonadownwardtrendsince2016,mainlyduetoreducedFITsupport.Thissegmentrequiresabusinesstransformation,forexample,fromasimpleground-mountedsystem,toaself-consumptionsystemintegratedwithrenewableenergyusers’and/orlocalcommunity’senergydemand.ThesegmentisalsoexpectedtogrowagainwiththegrowthofcorporatePPAsoutsidetheFITscheme.LargesolarPVsystemsof1MWandabove,includingutility-scalesystems,arealsotrendingdownwards.InadditiontotheFITtermination,powergridconstraintsandlandavailabilityhavealsocontributedtoreduceddemand.Thissegmentislikelytostartgrowingagaininthemediumterm,assoonastheseconstraintsareovercome,andwithimprovedcostcompetitiveness.FollowingtheintroductionoftheFIPregime,manyinvestorsanddevelopersarepreferringtowaitduetothesignificantuncertaintiesaboutfutureelectricityprices.Atthesametime,theyareturningmoreandmoretowardson-sitePPAs.Kawakami-2Mega-solarproject,31MW,installedatanaltitudeof1,600meters,Nagano,Japan.©VenaEnergyJapanGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202793Challenges•SmoothtransitionfromFITtoFIP:FIPswereintroducedin2022asamandatoryincentivemechanismforlarge-scalesolarPV(500kWandabovefrom2023),andoptionalfordistributedsolarPV(50kW–500kWfrom2023).OneofthebiggestchallengesfortheindustryandforpolicymakersisthesmoothtransitionfromFITstomoremarket-orientedFIPs.•Businessmodeltransformation:TheroleofFIT/FIPwillgraduallyshrinkinthecomingyears.WiththeemergenceofPPAtypebusinessmodels,thisdecadewillseethetransitiontowardsamarketgrowthwithlittlerelianceontheFIT/FIPregime.•Gridconstraints:LimitedgridcapacityandcurtailmentrisksaretheprimarycausesforthedownwardmarkettrendinJapan.METIhastakenseveralmitigationmeasurestomaximisegridcapacitywithexistingassets,suchasthe‘ConnectandManage’programmefortransmissionanddistributiongridlevels.Moreover,METIhasdevelopedthelong-termgridexpansionprogrammetoaccommodatelargeamountsofrenewableenergy.•Landavailability:Newbusinessmodelswithoutdedicatedlandspace(e.g.,on-siteself-consumptionmodels),andutilisationofunused/abandonedfarmlandareasolutiontothelimitedlandavailabilityproblem.Todate,conversionofunused/abandonedfarmlandtosolarfarmsisverylimitedasitrequiresstrictlegalprocedures,andthelocalauthorities’permission.Thegovernmentisnowtacklingthoseconstraintsbyreformingexistinglawsandregulations.•Costcompetitiveness:ThecostofsolarPVinJapanisstillsignificantlyhighercomparedtoaverageinternationallevels,mainlyduetoexpensiveconstructionandsoftcosts.ReducedCAPEX(mostlyconstructioncosts)andalongerPVlifespan(e.g.,from20-yearlifetoover30years)arekeygoalsfortheindustry.TheFITforagroundmountedPVsystembetween10and50kWwassetat10JPY/kWh(0.068EUR)and9.2JPY/kWh(0.062EUR),forsystemsfrom50kWto250kW.ThegovernmenttargetsasolarPVLCOEof7JPY/kWh(0.047EUR)by2028.Author:TakeakiMasukawa,SecretaryGeneral,JapanPhotovoltaicEnergyAssociation(JPEA).8.PolandOverviewofthesolarmarketAtthebeginningofJanuary2023,over22.7GWofrenewableenergywasinstalledinPoland,ofwhich12.4GWcamefromsolarPVinstallations.Thatisa55%year-on-yeargrowthfromtheendofJanuary2022,whentotalsolarcapacityamountedto8GW.Itisalsomorethan3timesmorePVthanthe4GWinstalledattheendofJanuary2021.SolarPVcovered6%ofthecountry’sfinaldemandforelectricityin2022.Approximately75%oftheinstalledcapacityisprovidedbymicro-installationsupto50kW.ThesuccessofsolarenergyinPolandismostlyduetothepopularityofhomeprosumerinstallations.AccordingtodatafromtheEnergyMarketAgency,bytheendofJanuary2023,Polandalreadyhadover1.2millionPVmicro-installations.Thehighpopularityofhomeinstallationsismainlytheresultofveryfavourablefinancialconditionsforprosumers,whichwereinforceuntiltheendofMarch2022.Specifically,thecountry’snet-meteringschemeallowedprosumerswithsystemsofupto10kWtofeed1kWhintothegrid,andreceive0.8kWhforfree.Forlargerinstallationsabove10kW,thisratiowas1to0.7.Moreover,prosumersdidnotpaythedistributionfeesforusingthegrid.Thelargegrowthinthenumberofmicro-installationsinPolandturnedouttobechallengingfordistributionnetworksandledtochangesinthepolicyframework.On1April2022,thenet-meteringschemewasreplacedbyanet-billingscheme,wherebytheamountofelectricityinjectedandretrievedfromthegridisbalancedinanhourlysettlementusingameteringsystem.Underthenewscheme,prosumersarerewardedforsurplusenergyfedintothegridatthewholesaleprice,andtheypayfortheconsumedenergyjustlikeotherelectricityconsumers.Afterthischange,thepopularityofmicro-installationssomewhatdecreased,althoughsolarPVremainsanattractiveinvestmentforhouseholdsconsideringcurrentelectricityprices.ApublicopinionsurveycarriedoutinMay2022andcommissionedbythePolishPhotovoltaicAssociation,showedthecontinuedhighpublicsupportforsolarenergy.Thesurveyhighlightedthatrenewableenergysources(RES)rankbestinallaspectswhencomparedtoanyotherenergysource.4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202794Amongrenewableenergysources,solarPVobtainsthebestresults,andisthetechnologythatPolishpeoplearethemostwillingtohaveintheirneighborhood(51%ofresponses).Nearly2in5respondentsalsothinkthattherequirementtoinstallPVsystemsonallnewbuildingsisaverygoodidea.PublicsolarPVtargetsThemostup-to-datedocumentdefiningtheRESgoalsisthePolishEnergyPolicy2040,thoughnotyetpublishedatthetimeofwritingthisarticle.Accordingtounofficialinformation,thedocumentmentionsthatthecapacityofrenewableenergysourceswillconstitute50%oftheinstalledpowercapacityalreadyin2025,then57%in2030,andreach68%in2040.Thelargestincreaseincapacityoccursinsolarpowerplants–tothelevelofapproximately27GWin2030,andasmuchas45GWin2040,whichwillbedrivenbytheincreasednumberofprosumersandsolarfarms.KeydriversforthesolarmarketInadditiontothefavourablelegalframework,theglobalenergycontextisprovidingaboosttosolardeployment.ThesignificantincreaseinenergypricesandthelackofrawmaterialsfollowingRussia’sinvasionofUkraineisdrivinglocalgovernmentsandenterprisestolooktowardenergyself-sufficiency,resultinginnewinvestmentsinphotovoltaics.Thecountryisalsoobservinganincreasinginterestinthedirectsaleofmarket-basedRESenergyintheformofcorporatePowerPurchaseAgreements(PPAs).Inthesmall-scalesegment,inadditiontothechangefromthepreviousnet-meteringframeworktothenewnet-billingscheme,thepopular“MojPrad”(MyElectricity)schemeisalsobeingrevised.Frommid-December2022untiltheendofMarch2023,thesubsidiestowardsresidentialsolarwereincreasedby50%from4,000PLN(869EUR)to6,000PLN(1,303EUR)persystem,whiletherebatesonbatteryinstallationsweremorethandoubledto16,000PLNSOURCE:PSEANDARE.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW8MONTHLYANDCUMULATIVESOLARPVINSTALLATIONINPOLAND2018-2023,BYPVPOLAND010020030040050060070080002468101214Newinstalledcapacity(MW)Totalinstalledcapacity(GW)NewinstalledcapacityTotalinstalledcapacityMay2018May2019May2020May2021May2022July2018July2019July2020July2021July2022Sep2018Sep2019Sep2020Sep2021Sep2022Nov2018Nov2019Nov2020Nov2021Nov2022Jan2019Jan2020Jan2021Jan2022Jan2023Mar2019Mar2020Mar2021Mar2022GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202795(3,475EUR).Eligibleinstallationsrangefrom2to10kWandgridconnectionisnecessary.Thewarisquotedasthemainreasonforprovidingadditionalfunding.Sincethebeginningoftheschemein2019,over1.7billionPLN(369millionEUR)havebeenallocatedtoover410,000projects.KeychallengesforthesolarmarketThebiggestbarrierisstillthelimitedcapacitytoconnectnewgenerationsources.Wherethegriddevelops,photovoltaicswillquicklyreplenishpowershortages.Thegridrequiresmodernisationnotonlyduetotheenergytransformation,butalsoduetoitsage–mostofitscomponentsareover25yearsold,andasignificantamountareover40yearsold.TheactlimitingelectricitypricesrecentlyadoptedbytheParliamentisveryrelevantforthePVsector–andtheentirePolishenergymarket.TheactimplementstheEuropeanCouncilRegulationNo.2022/1854,andaimstoprotectthemostvulnerableconsumersagainstuncontrolledpriceincreases.Itcontainsamechanismthatlimitsthemarketincomeofenergyproducersandenergycompaniestotheamountspecifiedinaseparateregulation.WhilephysicalPPAsareexempted,virtualPPAsarenegativelyaffectedbythecap.Thereductioninenergypricesisapplieduntiltheendof2023.Thegovernment’sworkonamendingtheSpatialPlanningandDevelopmentActisalsoworryingforthePVindustry,andRESingeneral.SomeofthelegalsolutionsproposedinthedraftwillblockfurtherdevelopmentofrenewableenergysourcesinPoland.Theproposedlegislationaimstomakeitmorechallenging,andprolongthetimeittakestoinvestinclassIVagriculturalland.Typically,thisreferstomedium-qualitylandthatisoftenunsuitableforagriculturalproduction.IntheendofMay2023,thedraftlawwasstillbeingdeliberatedinparliament.Prospectforthesolarmarket2023-2027Despitethesechallenges,weanticipatefurtherstabledevelopmentofsolarenergy.Theself-consumptionsegmentisexpectedtogrow,whereasforthedevelopmentoflarge-scalePVfarms,largeinvestmentsinpowergridswillbenecessary.Polandisalreadyexperiencingashortageinenergyproductioncapacity,andthistrendissettogrow.Againstthisbackground,PViscurrentlytheonlytechnologythatcandelivernewenergyproductioncapacitywithinashorttimeframe.Author:PaulinaWojciechowska,CommunicationOfficer,PolskieStowarzyszenieFotowoltaiki(PSF);StanislawM.Pietruszko,President,PolskieTowarzystwoFotowoltaiki(PVPoland).1MW,Walcz,Poland.©CORAB4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202796GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027979.Netherlands11GWprojectpipeline,thegametowards75%cleanelectricityin2030isonThemarketintheNetherlandsisstilldevelopingstrongly,withasolarPVcapacityadditionof3.9GWin2022.ThishasbroughtthetotalDutchPVfleetto18.2GW,includingsurprisinglyhighgrowthfromtheresidentialsector,whichadded1.8GWin2022.TheNetherlandsalsoholdsaprojectpipelineof11GWfromitsSustainableEnergyTransitionsubsidyscheme(SDE++)awardedprojects,withevensharesofcommercialrooftopandground-mountedprojects.ThemainchallengeintheNetherlandsistoensurethatalltheseprojectsinthepipelinearegoingtobebuilt.Currently,around65%ofproposedsolarprojectsreachcompletion,includingatimelygridconnection.Thispercentagewillmostprobablydecreaseinthecomingyearsmainlyduetotheincreaseinprojectcosts,suchasmaterial,labour,andfinancingcosts.Weexpectthatcommercialrooftopprojectswillfaceanexpectedcompletionpercentageofonly40%orlessinthecomingyears.Forground-mountedsolar,projectcompletionwillmostprobablyfallfrom90%toapotential80%.TheDutchgovernmenthasintroducedtheoptiontorevokepreviousSDE++bids(2019-2022)andtotakepartintheSDE++roundof2023.Thisyear’sroundaccountedforthenewfinancialconditionsfortheindustry(increasedmoduleprices,increasinginterestrates,etc.).Thisprovidestheopportunitytosavealargeportionofthe11GWpipelinethatwasatrisk.Duetonewcongestionmanagementtools,extragridcapacityandpeakshavingrequirements,anincreaseinsolarconnectioncapacitywasseeninsomeareasintheNetherlands.Clearly,netcapacityissuesarestillchallengingforproductionanddemandprojects.Despitethischallenge,itisexpectedthattheDutchsolarenergymarketwillcontinuetogrowin2023andsurpass4GW(seeFigureGW9).FIGUREGW9NETHERLANDSSOLARPVMARKETSCENARIOS2023-2026,BYHOLLANDSOLAR012345GWHistoricalresidentialHistorical(all)HistoricalcommercialHistoricalutility-scaleForecastresidentialForecastcommercialForecastutility-scale2022202320242025201520142026201620172018201920202021SOURCE:HollandSolar.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE20234GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202798Newsystem-sizerecordsin2022In2022,thebiggestmarketsegmentintheNetherlandswastheresidentialrooftopmarket,withashareof46%(approx.1.8GW)ofthetotalmarket.Thecommercialrooftopmarkethadashareof30%(approx.1.3GW)whilethemarketforground-mountedandfloatingsolarPVaccountedfor24%(approx.0.9GW).Theresidentialmarkethashadanimpressiveyear-on-yeargrowthof37%(from1.3GWto1.8GW)and10%pointsmarketshareincreaseduetothestrongincreaseinelectricityconsumerpricelevels.Thislevelisexpectedtobemaintainedin2023,andtostabiliseatalevelofabout2GWperyear.ResidentialandcommercialrooftopsolarisconsideredanimportantmarketsegmentfortheNetherlandsandisthemostfavourableoptionwhenitcomestopolicy,aswellaspublicopinion.In2022,thelargestprojectwithanewSDEsubsidygrantisa100%locallyownedsolarparkinHaarlemmermeer.Itsdesignandlocationweredevelopedinco-creationwithlocalcitizens.This136MWprojectisexpectedtobefinishedin2023.DutchpolicyandREStargetsTheNetherlandshasasignificantsolarpipelineofover11GW.Withthispipeline,andthesuccessfulcompletionofseveralwindprojects,thegovernmenthasbeenassuredthatthe2030NationalClimateAgreementtargetof35TWh/yearrenewableelectricityproductiononlandwillbemetintime.However,theDutchNationalClimateAgreementwasagreeduponin2019,anddoesnotyetconsiderthehighernationaltargets–being55%buttargeting60%–relatedtotheEUambitionof55%greenhousegasemissionsreductionby2030,ortheimpactoftheRussianinvasioninUkraine.Inaddition,thetargetdoesnotincludeforecastingfortheincreaseindemandforrenewableelectricityfromindustry,buildings,andmobility.Thegovernmentisnowdiscussingwhatthenewnationalambitionsforrenewableenergyproductiononlandshouldbe.Studiesshowthatdemandforgreenelectricitywillgrowby86TWhby2030,with10-20TWhtobeproducedonroofsandland.Therefore,itisforeseenthatthetenderschemeSDE++,orasuccessor,willstayopenforsolarandwindprojectsin2023-2025,andlaterintothisdecade.8.9MW,Armhoedesolarpark,builtonaformerlandfill.©TPSolarGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202799LocalparticipationhasamoreprominentroleinregionalenergystrategiesAsestablishedintheNationalClimateAgreement,therenewableenergysectorisstrivingfor50%localparticipationinrenewableenergyprojects.Anewsubsidyscheme,SCE(SubsidyCooperativeEnergyproduction2021),hasbeensuccessfullysupportingorganisedcitizensindevelopingcooperativeprojects,andwillcontinuetodosoadequately.Thiscooperativesector–1millionorganisedcitizenswithhundredsofprojects–accountsforstillasmall,butgrowingshareof1.5%ofthetotalinstalledcapacity.Othermethodsofparticipation–financialorotherwise–havebeendeployedaswellandwillbepublishedinanaddendumtotheCodeofConductofthesolarsector.Inthisway,HollandSolarintendstoensurealevel-playingfieldfordiscussionsbetweencommercialprojectdevelopersandlocalresidents.ReducingperceivedrisksoffireforrooftopsolarAssumedrisksoffirecausedbyrooftopsolarinstallations,sparkedbytheinsurancecompanies,havecausedthemarketforlarge-scalerooftopsolartoslowdown.InNovember2021,anindependentstudyinitiatedbytheDutchgovernmentprovedthatrisksoffirecausedbysolarPVinstallationsarelimited.Furthermore,thesectormetwiththenationalfirebrigade,insurancecompanies,andrepresentativesoftheinsulationindustrytocreateanewcodeofconductforlarge-scalesolarroofs.Thisnewcodeofconduct,togetherwithanewinspectioncertificationscheme,resultedinconsiderablyhigherinsurability.Itsatisfiesrequirementsfrominsurancecompanies,andensuresthatbuildingownerscanbeconfidenttheircommercialsolarinstallationsarefire-safe.DriversforsolargrowthThegrowthintheDutchresidentialsolarmarkethasbeendrivenlargelybynetmetering.Thereisnolimitationorchargefornetdelivery.AproposalsupportedbytheDutchsolarsectortograduallyphaseoutthenet-meteringscheme,witha9%decreaseeveryyearupuntil2031,isstillpendingavoteinthesenate,afterparliamentnarrowlysupporteditsadoptioninearly2023.Thisdegressivepathisbasedonaseven-yearpaybacktimefortheprosumer,assuming30%self-consumptionandoptimalsystemconditions.Nevertheless,evenwiththeproposedphaseoutthissegmentis,andwillremainanimportantdriverforcontinuousgrowthintheDutchsolarsector,especiallyinthecurrentcontextofhighelectricityprices.Thegrowthofthecommercialandutility-scalesolarPVmarketintheNetherlandshasbeendrivenentirelybytheSDE++tenderingscheme,wherebysolarenergyprojectscompetewithotherrenewableenergyprojectsandotherCO2reducingtechnologiessuchasCCS.Inthistenderingschemedifferentmaximumcapacitiesareawarded,dependingontechnology(wind,biomass,solar),size,andapplication(ground-mounted,rooftop,floating).TherankingintheschemeisbasedonEURperktCO2avoided.ThemaximumSDE++contributiondecreaseseveryyear,butforthe2023roundithasbeenincreasedbyabout17%.Thisincreasecanbeattributedtoworsenedfinanceconditionsandhighersystemcomponentprices.Inthe2022roundinJune,atotalof2.3GWsolarprojectsappliedforasubsidy;nearlyalloftheseprojectsareexpectedtobegrantedasubsidy.About1GWoftheseprojectsareground-mountedprojects,38MWarefloatingprojects,andtheother1.3GWarelargecommercialrooftopprojects.Thenextround,insummer2023,willhaveabudgetof8billionEUR.Unlikepreviousyears,itwillbeallowedtorevokeabidfromtheperiod2019-2022,andrebidin2023.Inthe2023round,abudgetof750millionEURwillbereservedforprojectsproducing“lowtemperatures,hightemperatures,andmolecules.”SolarstillneedstocompetewithCCSprojectsfortheremainingbudget,buthasabetterpositioninthetender.ChallengesThemainchallengesforthesolarenergysectorintheNetherlandsarethecurrentcostlevelsofprojectdevelopment,andsecuringatimelygridconnection.Becauseofthesereasons,thesectorexpectstofaceseriousdelays,andpossiblyahigherprojectnon-realisationinthecomingyears.Additionalreservecapacitywillbeputintogeneralusebythegridoperatorsin2023.Moreover,arecentlypublishedcongestionmanagementgridcodewillleadtoanincreaseinconnectioncapacityatthelocallevel.4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027100Forthefirsttime,gridoperatorsintheNetherlandshaverecognisedthesignificantgrowthofthesolarsector,andestimatethatbetween42-76GWofsolarcapacitywillbeinstalledby2030.Formerlegallimitationstocablepooling,whichcombinessolarandwindprojectsinco-locationwithbatteries,willlikelyberesolvedin2023.NewprojectsapplyingforSDEsubsidies(from2022onwards)havetocomplywithagridconnectionofmaximum50%ofthesystem’speakcapacitytobeeligibleforapplyingtoagridconnection,andtothesubsidyscheme.TheyearlylossiscompensatedinthesubsidylevelperkWh.Anotherchallengethesectorfacesistheavailabilityofland,especiallyforutility-scaleprojects,aswellassocialacceptancewhenitcomestousingagriculturallandforsolarenergyprojects.Sofar,itwasannouncedthatground-mountedprojectswillneedtoincludeamulti-usecomponenttoreceivepermitting,butthenatureofthatcomponentisstillunclear.Moreclarityonthisaspectshouldbegivenbytheendof2023.Anexampleofmulti-useground-mountedprojectsistheprojectArmhoede,developedbyTPSolar,aprojectdevelopedonaformerlandfill.Here,measuresarealsotakentoimprovethebiodiversityintheareaaroundthepark.TheDutchgovernmenthasshownagoodlevelofambitionregardingfightingclimatechange.Newactionsarebeingannouncedtosupportsolardevelopments,butarenotyetinplace.Examplesincludedeployingadditionalsupportforsolaron“unsuitable”rooftops,definingsolar-preparedbuildingstandards,andoutliningpossibleobligationsforsolarcarports.Increasinglyinthelastfewyears,solarcarportsarebeingdevelopedwithintheNetherlands.In2022,developerNovar,incooperationwiththeLowlandsFestivalorganisers,developedasolarcarportinBiddinghuizen,equivalenttothesizeof70footballfields.Recently,atthelocallevel,authoritieshavebeenencouragingrooftopownerstousetheirroofsfortheenergytransition.Lastly,themostimportantstepinthenearfuturewillbetocreateeffectivepoliciesontheelectrificationofindustry,mobility,andheating,whichshouldgohand-in-handwithcreatingalevelplayingfieldforflexiblegreenelectricityproduction.Thegameison.Authors:WijnandvanHooff,GeneralManager;NoldJaeger,ManagerPublicAffairs;andMarintheBos,CommunicationsOfficer,HollandSolar.37.7MW,SolarcarportinBiddinghuizen,theNetherlands.©NovarGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202710110.AustraliaOverviewofsolarPVdevelopmentsWhatadifferenceayearmakes!InMay2022,AustraliaelectedaLaborPartygovernmentthatactivelysupportssolarandrenewables–committinginitsfirst100daystohaving82%renewablessupplyingthecountry’selectricityby2030.TheyalsoincreasedtheIPCCcommitmenttoreduceemissionsby43%below2005levelsby2030throughalegislatedtarget.PVdeploymenthasbeenaffectedbythesupplychainimpactsoftheRussianinvasionofUkraine,andanincreaseinmodulepricesforthefirsttimesince2011.ForecastingtheAustralianPVmarketisprovingdifficultasalways!IntheGlobalMarketOutlook2022-2026,theSmartEnergyCouncilanticipatedanincreaseinrooftopsolar,bothresidentialandC&I,totakeplacein2022.Apossibleincreaseinlarge-scaleinstallationswasalsopredicted,contingentupontheformationofanewgovernment.The2022rooftopsectoradded2.7GWofnewcapacityincludingmorethan310,000households.Thetotalinstalledrooftopsolarcapacityisnowaround19GW,which,addedtotheutility-scalecapacity,constitutesatotaloperatingsolarPVfleetofjustunder30GW.Incontrast,large-scalesolardeploymentin2022wasabout850MW,a32%fallfromthe1,250MWcommissionedin2021.PVinstalledcapacityattheendof2022stoodataworldleading1,166Wperperson.Thefederalgovernment’sRenewableEnergyTargetremainstheprimarysupportforrooftopPVsystemsunder100kW.Thesimplepaybackperiodforthemostcommonsystemsize(nowabout9kW),isonaverage5yearsinmostlocations.No-interestloansforsolarPVandbatteriesarealsoavailableinanumberofjurisdictions.DriversforsolargrowthDuring2022,Australiahad35%ofresidentialrooftopsequippedwithsolarPV,representing3.5millionhomes;exporttariffshavebeenreducingasmid-dayoutputincreases.Manynetworksareenforcingexportlimits,andsomeareenforcingcrudesystemsizelimitsaspenetrationexceedscapacityofdistributionnetworks,whichneedtobemodernised.Increasesingasandcoalpriceshaveforcedfurtherrisesinretailprices,inadditiontorisesresultingfromthecontinuedunreliabilityofanagingcoalgenerationfleet,andhighernetworkcosts.Theslowerstartofsalesin2022followingCOVID-19wasfollowedbyarapidincreaseinthesecondhalfoftheyear.Theprogressivelyincreasingvalueofself-consumptionoverthelastfewyearswillcontinueinto2023.TherewasaslowerthanexpectedgrowthintheC&Isegmentin2022,increasingslightlyinthesecondhalfoftheyear.Risingenergycostsdroveupinterestfrombusinesses;thiswillalsolikelyresultinhigherdeploymentratesin2023.OneprincipalfactoristhesignificantincreaseingaspricesintheEasternStates.AustralianMinisterforEnergy,ChrisBowen(right)attheNewEnglandSolarFarm2022.©ACENRenewablesAustralia4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027102Australiaisinthetopthreeexportersoffossilgas.However,unlikeWesternAustralia,theEasthasnodomesticgasreservationpolicy.Thatmeansresidentialandcommercialconsumerspayglobalparityprices.Asdirectgovernmentinterventiontoimposeadomesticreservationpolicyseemsunlikely,thiswillincentiviseafastertransitiontoelectrification.ThiswillalsoleadtoaquickeruptakeofsolarPV,batteries,andheatpumpsforheatingandcooling,aswellasafasttransitionfromgastoelectricityappliancesforhotwaterandcooking.Alongsidetheincreaseinelectricityprices,electricvehicle(EV)salesinAustraliaarestilljust2%oftotalvehiclesales—againbecauseofthenationalgovernment’spolicyfailure;duetoalackoffuelefficiencystandards,thereisnoincentiveforOEMstoshiptoAustralia.ThereisahighcorrelationbetweenEVownersandPVinstallationthatwillbecomeanotherstrongdriverforuptakeinresidentialandC&IsystemsassoonasEVsalesgrow.ChallengesTheAustralia-Chinagovernmentalrelationshipimprovedin2022,anditisexpectedthatthisshouldstabilisePVsystemsupply.Australiaislookingtoexpanditssupplychainaccess,includingbyincreasingitsimportsfromIndia.ThenewgovernmentseemstobeemployingabetterapproachtoPVdeployment.However,westillfaceslowregulatoryinstitutionsthatarenotfitforpurpose,andasluggishpaceofreform.Therearestillmanybarrierstoconnectinglarge-scalesolarPV;asignificantcurtailingofsolariscausedbygridconstraints,whichneedupgradesforfastertransmission.ThegovernmenthasallocatedsignificantfundingforthisunderitsRewiringtheNationpolicyfrom1July2023.InJuly2022,theAustralianEnergyMarketOperator(AEMO)alsopublishedits2022IntegratedSystemPlan(ISP),whichidentifiestheneedformorethan10,000kmofnewtransmissionlines,and9timesthelarge-scalegenerationthecountrycurrentlyhas.OutlookThesecondhalfof2022,andthefirstquarterof2023,sawincreasedinstallationnumbersforrooftopsolar.Pricesofsystemsandcomponentshavelevelledoff,butworkforceconstraintsarenowaffectingbusinesscapabilityfordeploymentatallscales.Giventheincreasedenergypricesforconsumers,especiallygasprices,andthebuildingmomentumforelectrification,weexpectalikelyincreasetoover3GWofrooftopPVin2023.LargescalePVislikelytosignificantlyincreaseto4-4.5GWin2023,asforecastbytheCleanEnergyRegulator.Author:SteveBlume,President,SmartEnergyCouncil.Socialhousing,AllumeEnergy.©AllumeEnergyGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202710311.SouthKoreaOverviewofPVdevelopmentsTheSouthKoreansolarmarketgrewrapidlyundertheMoonJae-In’sgovernment,thankstovariouspoliciestoexpandrenewableenergy.Annualsolarinstallationshaveexpandedfrom1.3GWin2017,to4.7GWin2020.Thecumulativeinstalledcapacityalsoincreasedfrom5.8GWin2017,to22GWin2021.TherearethreepoliciesthatinfluencedtheexpansionofrenewableenergyduringtheMoonJae-Ingovernment.First,SouthKorea’sRenewableEnergy3020Plan(RE3020),announcedinOctober2017,wherethemaingoalistoincreaseSouthKorea’srenewableenergysharefromlessthan3%asof2017,to20%by2030.Second,theKoreanNewDeal,whichwasannouncedinJuly2020,isaplantoinvest160trillionKRW(110billionEUR)tofostergreeninfrastructure,lowcarbonanddistributedrenewableenergy,aswellasinnovationinthegreenindustry,andtostrengthenthecountry’sclimateaction.TheNewDealissplitintothreekeypoints:theDigitalNewDeal(58.2trillionKRW/43.5billionEUR),theGreenNewDeal(73.4trillionKRW/54.9billionEUR),andthestrongersafetynet(28.4trillionKRW/21.2billionEUR).Theseincludefinancialincentivestoaccelerateresearchanddevelopmentofnext-generationsolarcells,includingthroughlocalrenewableenergybusinesses,projects,andhigh-efficiencytandemsiliconperovskitecells.TheMoonJae-IngovernmentraisedthebudgetoftheKoreanDeal2.0in2021from160trillionKRWto220trillionKRW.Finally,the2030NationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs)undertheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange,increasedSouthKorea’sambitionforreducingitsgreenhousegasemissions.Thecountryraisedits2030targetfroma26.3%reductioncomparedtothe2018level,uptoa40%reductionfrom2018levels.However,annualsolarinstallationsin2022onlyreached3GW,a40%decreasecomparedto2020.Asthemarketshrinks,thedomesticsolarindustry,includingmodulemanufacturers,isalsoshrinkingoverall.LargecompaniessuchasHanwhaSolutionandHyundaiEnergySolutionarefacingcontinuousgrowthopportunitiesthroughexportstotheUSandEUmarkets,butsmallandmedium-sizedcompaniesareinadifficultsituation.SamaksanLake,Gangwon-do,SouthKorea.©I-SOLARENERGYThecurrentgovernment’senergypolicydirectionTheYoonSuk-Yeolgovernment’senergypolicydirectionisfocusedonexpandingnuclearpowerandadjustingrenewableenergy,whichhasnegativelyaffectedthesolarmarket.Moreover,corruptionallegationsbytheformerMoonJae-inadministrationregardingtheapprovalofsolarprojectsimpactedthereputationofthegreenenergysector.SinceOctober2022,theBoardofAuditandInspectionhasbeenconductingauditsonrenewableenergypolicyenforcementofficialsandrelatedagencies.TheFinancialSupervisoryCommissionhasalsoconductedaninvestigationintoallfinancialinstitutionsthatdealtwithrenewableenergyfinancing.Inaddition,therulingpartyformedanunprecedented“specialcommitteeonfindingoutthetruthaboutsolarcorruption”.TheenergypolicydirectionoftheYoonSuk-Yeoladministrationiscontainedinthe10thBasicPlanforLong-termElectricitySupplyandDemand.Theplancontainsdetailsoftheelectricpowersectorover15years,from2022to2036,andwasfinalisedinJanuary2023.Accordingtothebasicplan,theproportionofrenewableenergygenerationisexpectedtoincreasefrom7.5%in2022,to21.6%in2030,and30.6%in2036.Inparticular,solarpowerisexpectedtoincreasefrom25GWin2022,to44GWin2030,and65.7GWin2036.However,thisisasignificantstepbackfromthe2030renewableenergytargetof30.2%announcedintheNDCsubmittedtotheUnitedNationsinOctober2021.Accordingtothisnewplan,onlyabout2.9GWofsolarpowerwillbesuppliedonaverageyear-on-yearuntil2036.Inaddition,theYoonSuk-YeolgovernmentdrasticallyadjustedthemandatoryRenewablePortfolioStandards(RPS)supplyratio.RPSisasystemthatobligespowercompanieswithagenerationcapacityof500MWormoretosupplyacertainpercentageofelectricityfromnewandrenewablepowersources.Morethan90%ofthedomesticsolarinstalledcapacityfallsunderthatregime.Originally,thepowercompany’sobligationtosupplyrenewableenergywasexpandedto9%in2021,12.5%in2022,14.5%in2023,and25%in2026.However,thiswassignificantlyloweredto13%in2023,and15%in2026inthelastamendment.Thelackofgrid,whichhasbeenhinderingtheexpansionofrenewableenergysincethepreviousgovernment,andlocalgovernments’regulationsonthenecessarydistancebetweensolarinstallations,createdanevenmoredifficultenvironment.4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027104SOURCE:KOPIA.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW11.1PERCENTAGEOFRPSMANDATORYSUPPLYBYYEAR,BYKOPIAGW051015202530CurrenttargetAmendmenttarget202820292030+2023202420252026202714.517.020.525.013.013.514.015.017.019.022.525.0GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027105OutlookDuetothepolicyinfluenceoftheYoonSuk-Yeolgovernment,skepticismaboutthepossibilityofachievingthe2030NDCisincreasing,andcomplaintsfromtherenewableenergyindustryarealsogrowing.SamsungElectronicsandothercompaniesfromtheRE100group(30,asofApril2023),havedeclaredthattheyarefacingdifficultiesinachievingtheirgoals.TherearegrowingconcernsthatSouthKoreamayfallbehindintheacceleratingtrendofglobalindustrialandeconomiccarbonneutralisation.Asaresult,domesticsolarpowerisexpectedtoshrinkatleastuntilthefirsthalfof2024.Ifthereisnochangeinthegovernment’senergypolicy,itispredictedthattherenewableenergymarket,includingsolarpower,willbeinaweakphaseuntilthefirsthalfof2027,whentheYoonSeok-Yeoladministration’stermfinishes.Thesolarindustryismakingeffortsinthreemajorwaystoovercomedifficulties.Firstly,itisurgingthegovernmenttochangeitsenergypolicy.Industryisrequestingthegovernmenttoexpandrenewableenergy,andpromotecarbonneutrality,andproperlybelievein,andsupportrenewableenergylikesolarpower.Secondly,thedomesticsolarindustryisputtingmoreeffortintoexportingsolarproductssuchasmodules,anddiscoveringoverseaspowergenerationbusinesses.Thirdly,theindustryisconcentratingonPVonindustrialcomplexes.Industrialcomplexsolarpowerisfreefromvariouscivilcomplaints,systemshortages,andseparationdistanceordinances.AsofDecember2022,thereare1,274industrialcomplexesinSouthKorea.Morethan1.4%ofthecountry’slandisoccupiedbyindustrialcomplexes,andnewonesarecontinuouslybeingdeveloped.Consideringthecurrenttechnologylevelof1kW/8m²,theindustrialcomplexsegmenthasacapacityof35GW,andisestimatedtohaveatheoreticalpotentialof57GWby2030,whenthetechnologylevelisexpectedtoreach1kW/5m²(seeTableGW11.1).Consideringvariouscircumstances,itisexpectedthatabout40GWcanbesuppliedwithsolarpower,whichrepresentsabout70%oftheindustrialcomplex’spotential.Inparticular,theKoreaPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation(KOPIA)ismakingeffortstocreateaboominindustrial-levelsolarpowerundertheslogan“2023istheyearofindustrial-levelsolarpower.”©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW11.2SOUTHKOREAANNUALSOLARPVMARKETSCENARIOS2023-2027,BYKOPIAMW01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000HistoricaldataLowScenarioHighScenarioMediumScenario20222023202420252026202720182019202020213,0004,0005,0004,5003,5004GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027106ItishopedthattheseeffortswillreshapetheenergypolicyoftheYoonSuk-Yeolgovernmentinthenearfuture,andthattheRepublicofKoreawillcontributetothetransformationoftheglobalindustryandeconomy.Author:Woo-SikJung,VicePresidentofKoreaPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation.TABLEGW11.1INDUSTRIALCOMPLEXCONSTRUCTIONAREAANDPVSUPPLYPOTENTIALCOMPLEXTYPEMANAGEMENTAREA(1000M2)INDUSTRIALFACILITIESAREA(1000M2)BUILDINGAREA(1000M2)ROOFAREASUPPLYPOTENTIAL,CURRENTTECHNOLOGYLEVEL(MW)SUPPLYPOTENTIAL,EXPECTEDDIFFUSIONTECHNOLOGYLEVEL2030(MW)SUPPLYTARGET(MW)TOTALAREAAREATOBESOLDCountry487,247286,004257,223119,92414,990,523,984,816,789.36General549,717337,243268,062140,84017,60528,16819,717.6CityHighTech11,1674,9142,6901,056132211,2148Agriculture77,06058,47456,33724,5173,064,64,903,43,436.58Total1,125,191686,635584,312286,33735,792,157,267,440,091.38Note:Currenttechnologylevelin2023:1kW/8m²;Expecteddiffusiontechnologylevelin2030:1kW/5m²;Supplytarget:70%ofpotential.SOURCE:KoreaIndustrialComplexCorporation,reprocessingbyKOPIA.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202710712.ItalyOverviewofthesolarmarketTheItaliansolarmarkethadaslowgrowthbetween2014-2021,withonaverage500MWofcapacityinstalledperyear.Afteranimprovedperformancein2021,when936MWwasadded,attheendof2022Italyregisteredacumulativecapacityofover25GW,withatotalofover1.2millionPVsystems.Thisresultedin2.48GWofnewPVsystemsinstalledin2022.Thevastmajorityoftheseinstallationswereresidentialsystems(1.1GW),mostlybenefitingfromtheSuperbonus110%incentivescheme.InFigureGW12thedistributionofinstalledPVpowerplantsbysizeisdisplayed.PVsystemsbetween200kWand999kWmakeupmostofItaly’sinstalledsolarPVcapacity,with8.27GW(33%).TheregionswiththehighestinstalledcapacityareApulia,Lombardy,andEmilia-Romagna,whilethosewiththelowestinstalledcapacityareAostaValley,Liguria,andMolise.PublicsolarPVtargetsThecurrentnationalenergyandclimateplan(NECP)wasdraftedin2018,andsetsgoalsthatarenolongerrelevant,giventhecurrentenergyandclimatecrises,andthenewEU2030targetspresentedintheFitfor55andREPowerEUpackages.Toreachthe2030targets,thedeploymentofrenewablesmustbeplannedonalocalscale.Theso-called“BurdenSharing,”alreadystatedintheItalianLegislativeDecree199/2021(embodimentoftheREDIIDirectiveintheItalianlegislation),definesthedistributionofinstalledpowerbetweenregions,aswellasthesystemsrequiredformonitoringregionalcommitments.Italsooutlinesthestatisticalprocessingofthecollecteddata.TheItalianrenewablesenergyassociations,ANIERinnovabili,ElettricitàFutura,andItaliaSolareagreethatItalymustinstallatleast85GWofnewrenewablecapacityby2030toachieveitsREPowerEUtargets.TheyalsobelievethatItalymustinstall80GWhofnewlarge-scalestoragecapacitytoeffectivelyintegratenewpowerintothegrid.SolarPVrepresents58GWoutofthis85GWofnewrenewableenergysources.Thisscenariowillrequire320billionEURofoverallinvestmentsintheelectricitysectorandassociatedsupplychain.Itwillalsoleadto360billionEURofoveralleconomicbenefitsintermsofaddedvaluealongtheelectricitysectorsupplychain,andanincreaseindomesticspending.Thisdeploymentofsolarcapacity,togetherwiththeotherREStechnologiesneeded,willalsoleadtoareductionof270milliontonsofCO2eqemissions,andupto540,000newjobsby2030.SOURCE:Terna.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW12ITALYCUMULATEDSOLARPVCAPACITYSEGMENTATIONIN2022<12kW;20%1MW-10MW;16%12kW-20kW;5%20kW-200kW;20%>10MW;6%200kW-1MW;33%20224GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027108KeydriversandchallengesforthesolarmarketToreachthe58GWsolartarget,itisnecessarytoovercomesomekeyobstacles.Inparticular,permittingforlarge-scalesolarprojectsremainsacrucialchallenge.Theidentificationofsuitableareasforprojectconstructionshouldbesupportedbyregionalactors.ThepolicyframeworkforPPAsandself-consumptionmustalsobeimproved.Thefollowingactionsshouldbeurgentlyundertakentocultivatefurthersolargrowth:•FinalisethenewNECPandthe“OpportunitySharing”planningbetweentheregions;•Define‘go-toareas’forPVprojectdevelopment;•Continuesimplifyingtheauthorisationproceduresofnewplantsandrepoweringprojects;•ImplementamechanismwhichallowRESauctionsbasestobeadjustedaccordingtotheLCOEvalue;•FacilitatethetransferoftheenergyproducedfromPVandotherRESplantstoconsumers;•Implementsupportmeasuresforenergycommunitiesandself-consumption;•EncouragethedevelopmentofPPAs,especiallylong-termrenewableenergypurchasecontracts;•Increasesupportschemesforstoragesystemsinallmarketsegments;•Avoidregulatorydisruptionsorsuddenlawchangeswhichdestabilisethemarketoperators’plans;long-termplanningisneeded(seeMinisterialDecree“FER”1bis,MinisterialDecree“FER2;”taxdeductionsfortheresidentialsegment,taxcreditforbusinesses);•EnsureacorrectimplementationoftherevenuecapthatexcludesPPAs,includingcross-biddingzonePPAs,andthatitisnotretroactive;•FinalisethelegislationforthedevelopmentofAgri-PVsystems;•Reviewtheconnectionregulations(TICA)tospeedupprocesstiming;•StrengthentheEuropeanPVandBESStechnologicalsupplychainforimprovedenergyresilienceanddecreaseddependencyfromnon-EUcountries;•AcceleratethereformoftheelectricitymarketrulestoenableagreaterpenetrationofRES,storage,anddemand-sideresponse.Solarmarketprospects2023-2026By2026,Italyshouldinstallabout39GWofnewREScapacity,whichforPVspecificallymeansabout27GWby2026.Thisisequaltoanaverageannualgrowthabove6.5GWfortheperiod2023-2026.Consideringthatthemarketin2023willbarelyrampupto5GW,asignificantgrowthinannualadditionsisexpectedfor2024-2026.In2023,weareexpectinganotabledecreaseofresidentialinstallationsduetothephaseoutofthetaxrebateSuperbonus110%,whiletheC&Isegmentwillprobablyexperienceastrongincreaseduetothehighenergyprices.Author:MichelangeloLafronza,Secretary,ANIERinnovabili;AlessandroScipioniandEdoardoStorti,TechnicalAffairs,ElettricitàFutura;FedericoBrucciani,GeneralSecretary,ItaliaSolare.Savona,Italy.©BayWar.e.GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202710913.FranceThe3GWlevelwithinrangeOverviewofsolarPVdevelopmentsTheFrenchsolarfleetisenteringitsaccelerationphase.Withanadditional2,385MWconnectedin2022,theFrenchsolarfleetpassedthe16GWmilestoneattheendoftheyear.Electricityproductionfromsolarphotovoltaicsourcesamountedto19.1TWhin2022,up30%comparedto2021.Itrepresented4.2%ofFrenchelectricityconsumptionoverthisperiod.Thecapacityofprojectsinthepipelinehasgrownby46%sincethebeginningof2023,reaching16.9GW,including3.9GWofprojectsthatsecuredgridconnectionpermits.SOURCE:MTE.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW13.1FRANCESOLARPVMARKETINSTALLATIONSPERYEAR2012-2022,BYSER05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000MWQ1Q2Q3Q420122013201420152016201720182019202020212022378112199236189892621742207415734001402171721602122422452137675862412153144101251912323373356486209919422894109425172227433678605SOURCE:ENEDIS.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW13.2FRANCECUMULATIVESOLARPVGRIDCONNECTEDCAPACITYQ42022,BYSER<36kW;18%36-100kW;18%100-250kW;11%>250kW;53%4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027110SolarPVtargetsinFranceThe2015EnergyTransitionforaGreenGrowthlawsetambitiousgoalsfor2030,whichwerealsoconfirmedintheClimate&EnergyLawadoptedin2019.TheseobjectiveshavebeenimplementedforeachtechnologythroughtheMulti-AnnualEnergyProgramme(MAEP).Thisprogrammedefinescleartrajectoriesandvolumetricobjectivesforthecoming10years.TheMAEPobjectivefortheendof2023requiresanoperatingsolarPVfleetof20.1GW.InApril2023,thecompletionrateofthisobjectivestoodat81%.ArevisedversionofthefirstMAEP,adoptedinspring2020,confirmedthewillingnesstoacceleratethedevelopmentofaFrench‘solarpark’.Thenewtargetspresentedfor2028liebetween35.1GWand44GWincumulativecapacity.Thismeansbetween330and400km²ofground-mountedPVareawillbeinstalledinFrance,withbetween150and200km²ofrooftopinstallations.ThesetargetspositionsolarasoneofthemostimportantcontributorstotheFrenchenergytransition.Regardingthelong-termstrategy,inFebruary2022,FrenchPresidentEmmanuelMacronannouncedanobjectiveof120GWoftotalsolarinstallationsby2050.However,theMAEPtargetsfor2033willberevisedin2023andwillsetatrajectorythatcouldbemoreambitious.Itisalsoimportanttonotethat,initsrecentlypublishedreportwhichstudiedsixmainscenariostoreachcarbonneutrality,RTE,theFrenchtransmissionsystemoperator,predicts70to208GWofsolarcapacityinstallationsin2050.DriversforsolargrowthCallsfortendersarethemainfactorsforachievingsolargrowthtargets,with3.2GWscheduledeveryyear.Two-thirdsofthesetenderswillbeground-mountedinstallations.Theremainingthirdwillbeaccountedforbyrooftopinstallations.SinceAutumn2021,rooftopinstallationsbelow500kWareexemptedfromtenderingproceduresandeligibleforafeed-intariff(FIT),inlinewiththecurrentEUStateAidGuidelines.TheFITthresholdwasraisedSOURCE:SER.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW13.3MULTI-ANNUALENERGYPROGRAMMETARGETS05101520253035404550GWInstalledcapacityFirstMEAPtargetRevisedMEAPlowtargetRevisedMEAPhightarget20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820.14435.1GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027111from100kWto500kWattherequestoftheFrenchsolarPVsector.Thischangeismakingthingseasierforthemid-sizerooftopmarketsegment,whereprojectswerepreviouslylimitedbytenderingprocedures.Immediateresultsfromthislegislativechangehavebeenobservedonthemarket,asthenumberofinstallationslowerthan500kWcontinuestoincrease.Theself-consumptionmarket,forwhichadedicatedframeworkhasbeenputinplace,isalsogrowing.InQ4/2022,239,218installationswereself-consuming,representing1,134MW.ManyothermeasuresallowingforafasterdevelopmentofPVwererecentlyadopted.InFebruary2023,a“lawfortheaccelerationofrenewableenergy”wasenactedtosimplifyprocedures,andshortenthedeadlinesforrenewables.Thislawincludes,amongothermeasures,theempowermentoflocalauthoritiestocreatepreferred‘go-to’and‘no-goareas’forrenewableprojects.ItalsointroducesadefinitionofAgrisolarintheenergyandurbancodes;andfacilitatestheuseofartificialareas,orareasthatdonotpresentmajorenvironmentalchallenges.Inparticular,thiscanbeseenthroughtheinstallationofsolarPVsystemsalongmajorroadsandhighways,oncoastalwastelands,andonparkinglots.Anad-hocdecreewasalsopublishedattheendof2022tochangetheauthorisationregimeforground-mountedPVprojects.Now,onlyprojectsabove1MWrequireabuildingpermit.Smallerprojectsshouldgivepriordeclaration,butlengthypermittingcanbeavoided.Additionally,anewFITschemeshouldstartin2023forground-mountedprojectsunder1MWinstalledondegradedland,urbanisedortobeurbanisedareas,andprojectswithtrackers.Thecallsfortendershavebeenmodifiedin2022toincludeAgrisolarprojects,eitherintheformofAgri-PVcanopiesabovecrops,orground-mountedprojectsonagriculturallanduncultivatedformorethan5years,orlandthatishostinglivestock.Inaddition,a‘greenindustry’lawannouncedatthebeginningof2023bytheFrenchgovernment,shouldbediscussedoversummer.Oneofthelaw’sobjectiveswillbetofacilitatetheinstallationofsolargigafactoriesoverthenextfewyears.Aworkinggroupwasalsosetupin2022bytheNationalInstituteforSolarEnergy(INES),andtheproducerresponsibilityorganisation,Soren,todevelopacommonpreventionandEcodesignplanforthephotovoltaicsector,andshouldleadtothedefinitionofeco-modulationcriteriaforPVpanels.Eco-modulationinvolvespenalisingtheuseofenvironmentallyharmfulmaterials,andrewardingtheuseofenvironmentallyfriendlymaterials.15MW,Curbans,France.©Synapsun4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027112ChallengesReachingthenationaltargetof44GWby2028,comparedtothe16.3GWcurrentlyinstalled,wouldrequireaverageannualadditionsofmorethan5GW.Toachievethis,itwillbenecessarytoimplementregulatorychangesthatsupportthegrowthofallmarketsegments.Firstly,theparametersfor‘eligibleland’intendersforground-mountedprojectsshouldbewider.Giventhe2028MAEPtarget,andasthedistributionofmajorprojectsremainsstable,wecanexpectalmosttwo-thirdsofsolarpowertobeinstalledontheground.AssessinglanduseiscrucialtoincorporatetherealimpactofPVprojectsonsoils,andtofacilitatetheirdevelopment.Inaddition,innovativePVprojectswithespeciallylowlanduseimpact,suchasAgri-PVandfloatingsolar,shouldbeencouraged.Moreover,thedevelopmentofphotovoltaicprojectsistightlyregulated.Someadministrativeproceduresandarchitecturalplanningissuesmustbeclarified,andsimplifiedforallmarketsegments.Somelocalservicesmayhaveanambiguousanddebatableinterpretationoftheframeworkinplace.Thiscansometimesgobeyondcurrentregulation,suchasfiresafetyregulations.Additionally,administrativedeadlinesneedtobeshortened.ThepromotionofFrance’slowcarbonfootprintwithinitssolarPVindustryshouldalsoberecognised.Thecarboncriterioninthecallfortendersisseenasafundamentalpillarofanindustrialstrategywhichshouldgohand-in-handwiththemarketdevelopment.InlinewithwhatSERadvocated,thecarboncriterionisnowsetat550kgCO2e/kWinthenewcallfortenders’specificationswhichwerepublishedinSummer2021.ThiscriterionisnowrequiredtoapplytothenewFITforrooftopinstallations.ThankstotheworkofstrongR&Dcentres(INES,IPVF,etc.),theFrenchindustry’sinnovationcapacitiesandtechnologicalbreakthroughswillalsoimprovecompetitiveness.SERbelievesthatmanufacturersareinterestedinsettingupsolarwafer-to-moduleproductioncapacitiesinFrance.Finally,theshareofself-consumptioninFranceremainslowcomparedtotheotherPVsegments.Theattachmentrateofbatterieswithsolarisalsolow–theyarerarelyusedwithPVsystems.Thesupportmechanismsforself-consumptionprojectsmustbeadaptedtoenhancethevalueofallelectricityproduced,self-consumed,andinjectedintothegrid.Thiswouldguaranteethefinancialsecurityofprojects.Anotheralternativeistoencourageself-consumption,withoutpenalisingconsumerswhoarenotalwaysabletoconsumealloftheirproducedenergy.Author:MarieBuchet,HeadofSolarPower&SolarHeat,SyndicatdesEnergiesRenouvelables(SER).9MW,Cintegabelle,France.©AkuoGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202711314.TaiwanOverviewofPVdevelopmentsSolarPVinstallationsinTaiwanstartedincreasingsignificantlywiththeadoptionofafeed-in-tariff(FIT)systemin2010.TaiwanisastableGWmarket;2022markedtheyearthattheoperatingPVcapacityinthecountryreached9.7GW,withannualinstallationsof2.03GW.Totalrenewableenergycapacityamountedto14.1GWattheendoftheyear.In2022,solarenergygenerated10,675GWh,whichisacontributionof3.7%tooverallpowergeneration(Fig.GW14.1).TheTaiwanesegovernmenttargetstoincreasesolarPVcapacityto20GWby2025.Asimilargoalissetfor2030,wheretheaimistohaveatotalcapacityof31GW(seeFig.GW14.2).Taiwanhassetabroadergoaltoreach20%renewableenergygenerationby2025,withaspecifictargetof27GWofinstalledrenewableenergycapacity.Inadditiontosolar,Taiwanisalsoinvestinginotherrenewableenergysourcessuchaswind,hydro,andgeothermal.Taiwan’sgovernmenthasimplementedvariouspoliciesandincentivestosupportthegrowthoftherenewableenergysector,includingtheFITschemeSOURCE:BureauofEnergy,MinistryofEconomicAffairs.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW14.2TAIWANCUMULATIVESOLARPVINSTALLEDCAPACITYANDTARGETS2010-2030,BYTPVIAGW0HistoricalForecast9.714.017.120.031.020112010201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023e2024202520305101520253035SOURCE:BureauofEnergy,MinistryofEconomicAffairs.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW14.1TAIWANSOLARPVSHAREINELECTRICITYGENERATION2022,BYTPVIASolarPV;3.7%Others;96.3%andotherformsofsubsidies.Thegovernmentalsoplanstoinvestheavilyinenergystorageandgridinfrastructuretosupporttheintegrationofrenewableenergyintothegrid.BesidestheFITscheme,thegovernmenthassetupotherpoliciestopromotesolarPV.AfirstpriorityareaisthepromotionofrooftopPV,withthreemainobjectives:•Expandtheinventoryofagriculturalfacilityroofs,industrialroofs,publicroofs,privateroofs,etc.•Developapolicytomandatesolarinstallationonnewandrebuiltbuildings,meetingspecificconditions.•MakeaddingsolartoexistingbuildingseasierbyfixingtheregulatoryandeconomicobstaclesfacedbyrooftopPV.Inthisregard,thebiggestregulatoryobstacleisthelocalconstructionregulationandguidelines.MostPVinstallationsarerooftopsystemsthatarebuilttogetFITrevenues.However,alargevolumeofhousesarenotconsideredeligibleforsolarPVbecausetheyarenotregisteredonthegovernment’sdatabaseyet.Theyareclassifiedas‘illegal’buildings.ToexpandrooftopPVdeployment,wideningtheacceptancecriteriaisrequired.Someoftheeconomicobstaclesarehardtoovercomeaswell.LandlordsareaskinghighreturnsfromPVenergyservicecompanies(ESCO),whichisseriouslyjeopardisingtheirprofits.Asecondpriorityarearegardstheimprovementoflandvalueinuse.Centralandlocalgovernmentsareidentifyingmorelandsuitablefordualuse.Tohelpdevelopthis,TaiwanPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation(TPVIA)iscollectingsuccessfulcasesofsymbiosisbetweenfisheriesandelectricityproduction.Localgovernmentsarechiminginbypromotingmorepossibilitiesforthecompounduseofland.Basedonsuccessfuldemonstrations,therearealreadyafewcasesofagriculturalandelectricitysymbioticapplicationsdeveloped.Anotherkeysetofactionsistowardsthedevelopmentofpotentialland.Revitalisingunfitagriculturalland,aswellaspublicidleland,andpromotingfloatingsolarprojects,areactionsthatcanprovidenewopportunitiestothesector.Overall,Taiwan’srenewableenergysectorisshowingpromisinggrowthandprogresstowardsitsrenewableenergytargets.However,asrenewableenergytechnologieskeepevolvingandglobalenergymarketscontinuetoshift,itwillbeimportanttocontinuemonitoringandupdatingrenewableenergypoliciesandstrategiestoensurecontinuedgrowthandsustainabilityofthesector.PVcapacityhasgrownrapidlyinTaiwan,withcurrently10GWinstalledandagoaltoreach31GWbytheendofthedecade.Atpresent,solarPVprojectswithafocusonfisheryandelectricitysymbiosisarereceivingalotofattention.However,ground-mountedinstallationsaresettogrowaswell.Thegovernmentisidentifyingmoresuitablelocationsforground-mountedPVprojectssuchaslandwithtoxicwaste,terrainswithhighsaltconcentrations,andoldfishfarms.Meanwhile,theelectricitygridisundergoingkeyimprovements.Additionally,thegovernmentisencouragingthecombinationofPVandbatteryenergystoragesystemstoreducetheimpactonthegrid.Finally,theliberalisationofthedomesticelectricitymarketwillfurtherencouragethedeploymentofmoresubstationsandstorageintegration,whichwillenablemorePVcapacitydeployment.Authors:ShuYuYang,Industry,ScienceandTechnologyInternationalStrategyCenter(ISTI)&ITRI,DanielLee,TaiwanPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation(TPVIA).4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027114GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202711515.ChileSolarenergyhasundoubtedlyexperiencedremarkablegrowthinChileoverthelasttenyears.In2012,theinstalledcapacitywasonly2.9MW,whilein2022,itreachednearly7,000MW,representingnearly60%ofthenon-conventionalrenewableenergy(NCRE)installedand23%ofthecountry’stotalcapacity.Moreover,theCerroDominadorhybridConcentratedSolarPower(CSP)andPVplantwithatotalcapacityof210MWbeganoperationin2021,becomingthefirstCSPplantusingtowertechnologyinLatinAmerica.Asaresult,solarenergyproduced14.2TWhofelectricityin2022,accountingfor17%ofthetotalelectricityproduction.FigureGW15.1showstheevolutionofthetotalinstalledcapacityofsolarenergyoverthepastdecade,includingbothPVandCSPpowerplants,dividedintofourcategories:Utility-scale,over9MW;MediumSizeGeneration(MSG)upto9MWconnectedtothetransmissionsystem;MediumSizeDistributedGeneration(MSDG)upto9MWconnectedtothedistributionnetwork;androoftopsolar,upto300kWconnectedtothedistributionnetwork.Itcanbeobservedthatthedeploymentofsolartechnologyhasprimarilybeenledbyutility-scaleandMSDG.DespitesignificantmodificationstotheNet-billingActintroducedin2018,rooftopcapacitystilllagsbehind.Withonly170MWofrooftopfacilitiesinstalledin2022,itisdoubtfulthatthecountrywillmeetits500MWtargetby2026withoutsignificantchangestotheregulationoftheelectricitydistributionsegment.ChilehasageneraltargetforNCRE,sotherearenospecifictargetsforeachtechnology.However,in2021,thegovernmentsubmittedabilltoCongresstoincreasetheNCREnationaltargetfrom20%by2025,to60%by2030.TheinstallationofnewsolarcapacityinChileisdrivenbyseveralfactors,includingthecountry’splantodecommissionitsfleetofcoal-firedpowerplants,itscommitmenttoachievingcarbonneutralityby2050,andthecontinuousreductioninsolarcapitalexpenditure(CAPEX).Additionally,publictendersforsupplyingenergytoresidentialandcommercialcustomershavebecomecriticaltotheinstallationofnewsolarcapacity.SOURCE:ACESOL.NOTE:DataincludesbothPVandCSPcapacity.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW15.1CHILECUMULATIVESOLARCAPACITY2012-2022BYCATEGORY,BYACESOLMW0201220132014201520162017201820192020202120221,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000RooftopMSGUtility-scaleMSDGFigureGW15.2illustratestheinstalledsolarcapacitybyregion,arrangedfromnorthtosouth.Whilemostoftheutility-scaleprojectsarelocatedinthenorthernpartofthecountry,MSDGsareclosertothemajorcitiesinthecentralregion.However,theexpansionoftransmissioninfrastructurehasnotbeenasfastastherapidgrowthinsolarcapacity,resultinginsignificantincreasesintheamountofsolarenergycurtailed,andthenumberofepisodesofpricedecouplingbetweenthenorthernandcentralregionsinthelasttwoyears.ThiswillbeoneofthemainchallengesfacingsolarenergyinChileinthecomingyears.Chileiscommittedtoreducingitsdependenceonfossilfuels,andtransitioningtoa100%renewableenergymixassoonaspossible,withsolarenergyexpectedtocontinuetoplayavitalroleinthisprocess.However,toachievethisgoal,thecountrymustaddressthreesignificantchallenges:1)undertakeamajorreformofthewholesaleenergymarkettopromotetheefficientinstallationofrenewableenergytechnologiesandenergystorage;2)introducesignificantreformstotheprocessforexpandingtransmissioninfrastructure;3)embarkonasubstantialreformofthedistributionsectortounlockthecountry’spotentialfordecentralisedpowergenerationandrooftopinstallations.Consideringthatabout1,300MWofsolarprojectsarealreadyinthetestingphase,itisassumedthatChilewillbeabletoachieveupto2.5-3GWofnewlyinstalledsolarcapacityduring2023.Author:DavidRau,VicePresident,ChileanSolarAssociation(ACESOL)4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027116SOURCE:ACESOL©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW15.2GEOGRAPHICDISTRIBUTIONOFSOLARINSTALLEDCAPACITYINCHILE,BYACESOLMW0AricayParinacotaTarapacáAntofagastaAtacamaCoquimboValparaísoRMO’HigginsMauleÑubleBiobíoAraucaníaLosRíosLosLagosGral.CarlosIbáñezdelCampoMagallanesyAntárticaChilena5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000RooftopMSGUtility-scaleMSDGGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202711716.DenmarkOverviewofPVdevelopmentsIn2022,DenmarktookabigleapandenteredtheclubofGW-scalemarkets.Thiscrucialmilestonehasbeendrivenbyutility-scalesolar,whichcontinuedastronggrowthpathandmorethandoubledtheyearlyinstalledcapacity–allbasedonsubsidy-freeprojects.Besidesthelarge-scalesolarsegment,rooftopPVofallsizesalsodemonstratessignificantgrowthwithanicepotentialforcontinuedexpansioninthefuture.Theresidentialmarketpeakedin2012and,exceptforasmalldecreasein2013,hasonlyregainedmomentuminthelastthreeyears.Bythe1stquarterof2023,theaccumulatedutility-scalecapacityinDenmarkwas2.88GW12distributedover76parks,including1.56GWinstalledin2022.Also,theyearlyinstalledcapacityofallrooftopsegmentsmorethandoubledin2022with139MWadded,reachingatotalcapacityof3.97GW.From2021to2022,theresidential,commercial,andindustrialmarketsegmentshaveexperiencedveryhighgrowthrates,closeto290%,160%,and180%respectively.Thisislargelybecauseoftheoverallinterestinsupportingthegreentransition,andrealisationofenergyindependencethroughahighdegreeofself-consumption.DriversforsolargrowthGrowthintheresidentialrooftopandcommercialsegmenthassloweddownsignificantlyduringthepreviousmonths.Whilethefirstmonthof2023stilldemonstratedstronggrowthcomparedtotheyearbefore,customerinterestisnowsignificantlylower,mainlyduetolowerelectricitypricesandoverallconstrainedeconomicconditions.BasedoninformationcollectedfromallmajorsolardevelopersinDenmark,thestronggrowthintheutility-scalesectorisexpectedtocontinueoverthecomingyears.Thetotalpipelineofprojectsisverystrong,andtheDanishutility-scalemarketbenefitsfromwell-functioningandtransparentregulations,withrespecttoplanningpermissionandgridconnectionprocedures.Forthisreason,theexperienceddevelopershaveprovidedestimatesforeachofthecomingyears,onthenumberofprojectswhichmayreachready-to-buildstatus.13Accordingtothisanalysis,theDanishutility-scalemarkethaspotentialtosurpassthe2022recordlevelaftertwoyearsofmarketcontractionorstagnation.Althoughtheprocessesrequiredtodeveloputility-scaleprojectstoreachready-to-buildstatusiswellunderstoodandtocertainextentquitepredictable,itisbecomingincreasinglydifficulttopredictiftheseprojectswillpassthefinalinvestmentdecision.Thehighuncertaintycomesfromachangeintheoverallbusinessenvironmentinrelationtorealisationofsuchprojectsrelatedtoseveralfactors:•Thenewtariffschemeforgridconnectionofelectricityproduction,whichhasnowbeenimplementedasofJanuary1st2023,impliesthatallproducersmustpayaper-MWACgridconnectionchargebetween17,600EURand329,000EUR.Thisfeedependsontheconnectionvoltage(from10kVatDSOlevelto400kVatTSOlevel)andgeographiclocationoftheproject.Ifaprojectistobeinstalledinanareawherethegridcapacityisdominatedbyotherexistingelectricitygeneration,thegridconnectionfeeishigherthanforconsumptionsdominatedareas.•Theoverallcostsrelatedtovaluelosscompensationforneighboursandfinancialsupporttomunicipalitiesarequitehighandmaybecomeevenhigher.•Thefinancialconditionsinrelationtoinflationandinterestrateshavereducedinvestors’appetitefortheseprojects.•Theloweringoftheelectricitypriceandprojectedcannibalisationeffectwillhaveastrongnegativeimpactontheprofitabilityoftheprojects.Itisexpectedthattheelectricitypricesinthefuturewillsignificantlyreducethespotpriceofsolarformanyhoursduringtheyear.•Theoverallincreasedactivityintheelectricitysectorwillalsoincreasethecostandriskofdelaysinpreparingforgridconnection.12AllnumbersinthisarticleareexpressedinDC.AnACtoDCconversionfactorof1.1forallrooftopprojectsand1.25forutility-scaleprojectsisassumedforDenmark.13Toaddressthemarketuncertainty,theestimatedutility-scaledeploymentcapacityhasbeenreducedby10%and20%comparedtothereportedvaluefortheyears2024and2025-2026respectively.•Manyofthelargeprojectsfrom2025onwardsrelyontheassumptionthattherewillbeasharpincreaseinelectricityconsumption(e.g.functioningmarketforhydrogenandotherPower-to-Xtechnologiesattheendofthedecade).Politicalactiontosecureaspeedyframeworkandthedevelopmentofahydrogenpipelineisanecessarycondition.•Theoptimisticoutlookonmediumtolongterminstallation(from2025)alsoreliesonthedeliveryofotherpoliticalpromisessuchastherealisationofstateenergyparks,mandatorytargetsofinstalledcapacityformunicipalities,andotherannouncedchanges.Theextenttowhichtheseriskfactorsmaynegativelyimpactthepresentedoptimisticdeploymentforecastisdifficulttoassess.Becauseofthis,theoutlookmustbeconsideredasanupperlimittothedeployment.Oneofthekeydifferentiatorsbetweenthewell-functioningutility-scaleDanishmarketandothers,isthelessrestrictiveapproachtotemporaryuseofagriculturallandforsolarpurposes.TherequirementsandformalitiesingeneralarenotlessdemandingthaninotherEUsolarmarkets,buttheDanishmunicipalitiesandutilityprovidershaveareputationforefficiency,whichensuresafasterprocess.OutlookWith2022asthefirstyearsolarreachedtheGWscaleinDenmark,itisexpectedtocontinueduringthecomingyears,followingastrongdropininstallationsin2023.Theutility-scalesectorisexpectedtobethemaindriverofthegrowth,asitisforeseenthatthemarketwillreach1.4GWin2024,setanewall-timehighin2025with3.3GWandincreasefurtherto3.7GWby2027(asillustratedinFig.GW16).Theannualrooftopmarketisexpectedtostayalmostconstantfromaround141MWin2023,tocloseto153MWby2027.Authors:ThomasAarestrupJepsen,Director,VE-production,PAandCommunication,GreenPowerDenmark;FlemmingKristensen,ChairmanoftheBoard,DanishPVAssociation.4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027118SOURCE:GreenPowerDenmark&DanishPVAssociation.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW16DENMARKSOLARPVMARKET2023-2027,BYGREENPOWERDENMARK&DANISHPVASSOCIATIONGW02023202420252026202712345RooftopUtility-scale0.140.150.150.150.160.71.353.273.343.67GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202711917.TürkiyeOverviewofsolarPVdevelopmentAttheendofDecember2022,totalinstalledpowercapacityinTürkiyereached103,809MW,outofwhichPVplantsaccountedfor9,425MW.TheamountofsolarPVprojectsundercompletionareestimatedtobe1-1.5GW.Thiscapacitycanbeconsideredinadditiontotheinstalledcapacityin2022.Solarpowerinstalledcapacityincreasedby1,610MW,comparedtotheendof2021.Thereare11,427powergenerationplantsinTürkiyeandthenumberofunlicensedandlicensedsmallpowerproducers(SPPs)reached9,353(TEİAŞ,2022).WithsolarPVinstallationsexceeding9GWinlessthan10years,thePVpanelproductionmarkethasalsoexpanded.Therearemorethan30solarmodulemanufacturersinTürkiyewhichhaveatotalmoduleproductioncapacityofover12GWperyear.Newmodulemanufacturersareexpectedtoadd10GWofproductioncapacitybythesecondhalfof2023,bringingthetotalannualproductioncapacityto22GWperyear.Likewise,productioninthesub-industryformoduleframes,glasses,junctionboxes,andcellsisalsograduallydeveloping.Thenumberofcompaniesoperatinginthefieldofsolarenergyisestimatedtobearound1,000,includingsolarmodule,construction,cable,andinvertermanufacturers,operationandmaintenancecompanies,smartgrid,e-mobility,blockchainapplications,energymanagementandmonitoring,energystoragesolutions,energyefficiency,andconsultancyservices,etc.Therearemorethan250Engineering,Procurement,andConstruction(EPC)companiesactivelyworkinginTürkiye,excludingthesmallcompaniesprovidingserviceslocally.Asaconsequenceoftheseflourishingdevelopments,theTurkishsolarenergysectorcurrentlyemploysover50,000people.NationaltargetsforsolarPVTheshareofvariablerenewableenergysources,suchassolarandwind,intotalelectricitygenerationisexpectedtoincrease.ThisisconsideringTürkiye’scurrentflexibilityopportunities,andrenewableenergypotential.TheMinistryofEnergyandNaturalResources(ETKB)releasedtheNationalEnergyPlanofTürkiye,whichcoverstheperiodfrom2020to2035.Accordingtotheplan,theoverallinstalledcapacityofelectricitywillreach189.7GW,withsolar,wind,andnuclearpowerprojectedtoriseto52.9GW,29.6GW,and7.2GWrespectively(FigureGW17).74.3%ofthisinstalledcapacityincreaseshouldcomefromrenewableenergysources,mostnotablysolarandwindpower.Tomeettheneedforflexibility,SOURCE:GÜNDER.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW17CUMULATIVEINSTALLEDSOLARCAPACITYANDGROWTHSCENARIOSUNTIL2035,BYGÜNDERGW0202020252030203520406080100120140160180200SolidfuelsGasNuclearHydroWindSolarOther20.321.122.824.325.724.230.335.50.02.435.135.13133.04.87.28.813.132.952.96.717.95.15.13.44.518.129.695.9116.2149.1189.7batterycapacitywillreach7.5GW,electrolysercapacitywillreach5GW,anddemand-sideparticipationwillreach1.7GW,accordingtoETKB.DriversforsolargrowthTheallocationofnewcapacityforlandandrooftopsolarsystems,alongwiththeadoptionofhybridpowerplants,electricvehiclecharginginfrastructure,andstoragetechnologies,hasenhancedtheinstalledcapacityofsolar.Regardlessoftheamountofwindandsolarpowercapacitythatcanbeputintooperationintheupcomingperiod,itwillbeimportanttobeabletomanagethesupply-demandmargin,whichmaybereducedwhenthecapacityfactorsofwindandsolarpowerplantsarelow.Inthisframework,factorsthatcanprovideadditionalflexibilitytotheelectricitysystem,suchasbatterystorageandnewbase/flexiblecapacity,willbeassessedfromtheperspectiveofenergysupplysecurity,therequirementsoftheelectricitygrid,costs,thegrowthrateofelectricitydemand,statusofthegenerationportfolio,etc,andadditionalmeasureswillbetakenasneeded.Utility-scalevs.distributed&rooftopsolardevelopmentandplansThenumberofapplicationsintheC&IrooftopPVmarketexceeded2,000projectslastyear,andreachedanannuallyinstalledcapacityofover1,000MW.Accordingtotheresearchconductedbyindustrystakeholders,thereispotentialforatleast10GWtobeaddedinthecomingyears,specificallyforunlicensedinstallationsusedforself-consumptionpurposesforbusinesses,withsuitableroofssuchasfactories,hotels,andhospitals.ChallengesforthemarketOnFebruary6and20,2023,twomajorearthquakeshitTürkiye.Theywereunprecedentedinrecenthistoryintermsofmagnitudeandcoverage,causedmajordevastationinatotalof11provinces,andclaimedthelivesofmorethan48,000people.Overhalfamillionbuildingsweredamaged,andcommunicationandenergyinfrastructurewerehitaswell,leadingtosignificantfinanciallosses.Thereare45MWoflicensedPVsystems,924MWofwindpower,and224MWofbiomassandwasteheatplantsintheearthquakezone.Atotalof3.5TWhperyearofpowerwasgeneratedfromthesepowerplants,correspondingto7.5%ofthetotalsolar,wind,biomass,andwasteheatpowergenerationinTürkiye.Therefore,followingtheearthquake,itshouldbethemaingoaltobuildhabitable,eco-friendly,andsustainablesettlementsforall,andtoinstallwaterandsanitationutilitiesinsuchsettlements,basedontheprinciplesofenergyefficiency,andprotectionofwatersourcesandbiodiversity.Outlookfortheyears2023-2027Meetingnet-zeroemissiontargetsrequiresamajortransformationinallsectors,andasystemapproachthatisdifferentfromanypreviouspolicyagenda.Asalong-termpolicyproposal,everyone,especiallythelow-incomepopulation,shouldhaveaccesstoadequate,safe,inclusive,economicallyaffordable,sustainable,climate-resistant,andenergy-efficienthousing,withbasicinfrastructureservices.ManyR&Dprojectsarerealisedwithsupportfromthemainfundingagency,theScientificandTechnologicalResearchCouncilofTürkiye(TUBITAK).METU-GÜNAMisalsooneofthemostcomprehensivenationalresearchinfrastructures,combininganddevelopingtechnologiesindifferentdisciplinesincludingPVcellsandmodules.Additionally,theGÜNDERVocationalQualificationCentreistestingandfollowingcertificationactivitiesforemployment,aimedatpromotingthepropergrowthofthesolarindustry.Thecentrealsoestablishesminimumstandards,aswellasnationalandinternationalqualifications,includingforinstallations.Author:TurkishSolarEnergyAssociation-GÜNDER4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027120RooftopPVprojectforÇimtaşÇelik(ENKA),5.7MW,Bursa,Türkiye.©IstrichEnergyGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202712118.GreeceOverviewofsolarPVdevelopmentsTheGreeksolarPVmarkethasgainedtremendousmomentum,whichisexpectedtocontinueforthenextfewyears.In2022,1.362GWofnewPVprojectswereconnectedtothegrid,bringingthecumulativecapacityto5.5GW.ThiswasthebestperformanceeverfortheGreeksolarsector.Still,itlooksmodestifyoucompareitwiththeexpectedperformanceofthemarketin2023whichshouldbringonlinearound2GWofsolarcapacity.Onceagain,in2022,theannualmarketwasdominatedbymedium-sizeprojectsbetween10and1,000kW.However,theutility-scaleandresidentialself-consumptionsegmentsareexperiencingnoteworthygrowthforthefirsttime.ThebrightweatheracrossthecountryhelpedsolarPVtocontributetosome13.5%oftotalGreekelectricityproductionin2022,breakingyetanotherrecord.Thisoutshinedtheexpected10%shareofsolarinmeetinggrosselectricitydemand.SOURCE:HELAPCO.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW18.1GREECESOLARPVMARKETDEVELOPMENT2010-2022,BYHELAPCOMW01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000AnnualconnectedcapacityCumulativeconnectedcapacity20152016201720182019202020212022201020112012201320141,3625,488SOURCE:HELAPCO.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW18.2GREEKCUMULATIVEPVMARKETSEGMENTATION2022,BYHELAPCO>1MW;22%250-1,000kW;36%<10kW;7%10-250kW;35%4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027122Consideringcurrenttrends,Greeceisrevisingits2030nationalsolartarget:thenewdrafttargetis14.1GWbytheendofthedecade,almostdoublingtheonepreviouslyset.Themajorbottleneckremainstheavailabilityofgridcapacity.Mostofthemedium-voltagegridsarenowcongested,andsoon,thesameislikelytohappenwiththehighandultra-highvoltagegrids.ThegovernmentSOURCE:HELAPCO.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW18.3GREECECUMULATIVESOLARPVCAPACITYOUTLOOKACCORDINGTONEWNATIONALTARGETGW02468101214162027202820292030202220232024202520265.57.59.310.511.212.012.713.414.116MW,AthensInternationalAirport,Greece.©PlatonBaltas,EUDITIGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027123presentedaprioritylistforgridconnectioninAugust2022andthenagaininJanuary2023,raisingnumerouscomplaintsbyinterestedinvestors.Toaddressthesecomplaints,aroadmapforgridenforcementanddevelopmentforthecomingyearswasmade.However,theappetiteofinvestorstranscendsthisplan.Therealgoodnewscomesfromtheself-consumptionsegment.Forthefirsttime,annualinstallationsin2022exceededthe100MWmilestone(110.8MWwereconnectedin2022),and2023isexpectedtobeanotherrecordyearforself-consumptionsystems,withthemarketexpectedtotripleitssize.Regardingsupportschemes,some4.1GWofRESprojectswillbeauctionedinGreecebetween2023and2025,withPVexpectedtogetaround3GW.Additionally,corporatePPAsareexpectedtotakeoffsoon,andaGreenPoolschemetosupportPPAdeploymenthasbeenpresentedbytheGreekEnergyMinistryforEuropeanCommissionapproval.AnaggregatorwillbechosenundertheGreenPoolschemetorepresentcollectivelyRESproducerstoreducecostsarisingduetodifferencesbetweengenerationanddemandprofiles.Itisexpectedthattheaggregatorwillreceiveastatesubsidyofupto85%onanticipatedprofilecostswhichwouldnormallybeincurredbytheofftakers.In2022,theGreekParliamentalsopassedathoroughregulatoryframeworkforstorage.Large-scalestoragewillbeselectedthroughabiddingprocess,withatotaltenderedpowercapacityof1,000MWandatleast2GWhofstoragecapacity.Theallocationofthecontractstoselectedprojectsshouldtakeplacebeforetheendof2023,andstoragefacilitiesshouldbecompletedbytheendof2025.Asupportschemeforself-consumptionPVsystems(<10.8kW)coupledwithstorageintheresidentialandsmallagriculturalsectorscommencedinMay2023.Thisprogrammewillcoverthefullcostofbatteries,inanefforttofacilitatethedevelopmentofanewmarketsegment.Some30,000smallbatteries(<10.8kWh)areexpectedtobedeployedbymid-2024.Author:SteliosPsomas,PolicyAdvisor,HELAPCO.19.SouthAfricaOverviewofPVdevelopmentsRenewableenergydevelopmentinSouthAfricahasbeendominatedbypublicprocurementsincethelaunchoftheRenewableEnergyIndependentPowerProducerProcurementProgramme(REIPPPP)in2011.However,recentcoal-firedplantperformanceissuesatthenationalutility,ESKOM,coupledwithchangesinregulationhasshiftedthefocustotheprivatesector.SouthAfrica’selectricitygenerationmixisstilldominatedbycoal-firedgeneration,accountingfor80%ofthenationalelectricitygenerationin2022.However,11GWofcoalfiredcapacityisduefordecommissioningby2030accordingtothe2019IntegratedResourcePlan(IRP).Theperformanceoftheagingcoalfiredpowerstationshasdeterioratedoverthelast5years,resultinginagenerationsupplyshortfallrangingfrom1,000MWto8,000MWdaily,andinpowercutsfrom2to12hoursperday.Againstthisbackground,SouthAfrica’ssolarsectorhasgrowninimportanceandsizeinrecentyears.AfterreachingtheGWscaleforthefirsttimein2020,with1.3GWannuallyinstalled,theSouthAfricanmarketdidnotcrossthisthresholdin2021.Lastyear,in2022,theGW-scalewasreachedagainwithannualinstallationsinthesamerangeoftherecord-breaking2020levels.Asaresult,SouthAfricanowoperatesasolarfleetlargerthan6GW.NationalsolarPVtargetsSouthAfricannationalenergyprocurementisguidedbytheDepartmentofMineralResourcesandenergy(DMRE)throughtheIRP2019.ThecurrentversionoftheIRPisdueforreviewin2023andsetsoutanenergyprocurementroadmapuntil2030thatfavoursadiversifiedapproachofgenerationtechnologies.CurrentsolarPVtargetsare8,288MWor10.52%oftotalinstalledcapacityby2030.Atotalof4,348MWhasbeenprocuredtodateacross6biddingroundsofwhich2,213MWisalreadyoperational.4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027124DriversforsolargrowthTheelectricitygenerationshortfall,andtheensuingpowercuts,havebeentheprimarydriverforresidentialsolarPVandstorageinstallationsaswellasC&IsolarPVinstallationsoverthelastyear.Theshortfallhasalsonecessitatedachangeinregulationtoallowforprivatesectorparticipationinutilityscalegenerationprojects.ThiswaspreviouslyonlypossiblethroughpublicprocurementviatheREIPPPP.ThedemandincreasefromhouseholdsandbusinesseslookingtobecomemoreenergyresilientisaidedbythedecreasingcostsofsolarPVinstallationscoupledwithstoragesolutions.Typically,costsforresidentialsolarPVinstallationscoupledwithstorageareintherangeof2,000-2,300USD/kW(1,875-2,157EUR/kW),whiletypicalC&Irooftopsolarinstallationcostsrangebetween620-700USD/kW(581-656EUR/kW).ThecostofsolarPVthroughpublicprocurementhasfallenby88%since2011toanaverageof0.027USD/kWh(0.025EUR/kWh).TheuptakeofsolarPVsystemshasalsobeenacceleratedbytheavailabilityoffinancingforresidential,C&Iandutility-scaleprojects.InnovativefinancingsolutionshavebeendevelopedbytheSouthAfricanfinancialindustrythatcaterstotheuniquerequirementsofresidentialandC&Iprojects.However,financingsolutionsarestillheavilytiedtoindividualcreditscores.Ontheonehand,thisexcludeslargesegmentsoftheSouthAfricanmarketthatdonothaveaccesstocreditorhavealowcreditscore.Ontheotherhand,ithascreatedanopportunityforcompanieswithsolar-as-a-serviceandrent-to-buybusinessmodels.Privatesectorutility-scalegrowthThesectorofthemarketthathasseenthehighestgrowthratein2022isthelargeC&Isector(largerthan1MW)aswellastheprivateutility-scalesector.In2022thenationalenergyregulatorofSouthAfrica,NERSA,registeredover1.2GWofcapacityacross57projectslargerthan1MW,thelargestbeing100MW.SOURCE:SAPVIA..©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW19NERSAREGISTEREDCAPACITYINSOUTHAFRICA,BYSAPVIAMW0NorthernCapeFreeStateNorthWestProvinceLimpopoGautengKwaZulu-NatalWesternCapeMpumallangaKwazuluNatalEasternCape100200300400500600700800900846.1608497.7460192.924.518.715.84.24.2GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027125Thegrowthoflarge-scaleprojectshasbeendrivenbyamendmentstonationalregulationgoverningthesizeofprivatesectorprojectsthatareallowedtoconnecttothegrid.Inlate2021,theupperlimitwasincreasedfrom1MWto100MW,andthethresholdremovedcompletelyinDecember2022.Thishasresultedinmorethan1.4GWofprojectsbeingregisteredin2023todate,withthelargestbeinga283MWplant.Over2.1GWofprojects,representingover70%ofprojectslargerthan10MW,aredesignedforeitherwheeling,orforsellinggeneratedenergytoanenergytrader,oncethemarketmechanismsareputinplace.Wheelingisthepracticeoftransportingenergyacrosspubliclyownedtransmissionanddistributionnetworks.ItconcernstheenergysoldthroughabilateralPPAwithaprivateoff-takeraswell.ChallengesTheSouthAfricanPVmarketfaceschallengesrelatedtoskillshortagesandlongequipmentdelaysacrossallsectors.TheexponentialgrowthindemandforsolarPVacrossallsectorshasunfortunatelynotbeenmatchedbythetrainingofindividualstodesignandimplementtheprojects.Thisposesalimittothegrowthrateoftheindustry.Theintroductionofformalvocationaltrainingprogrammeshasbeenwelcomedbytheindustry.However,newtrainingserviceprovidersareexpectedtoestablishbothformalandinformaltrainingschemestomeetthedemandoftheindustry.Accordingtonationalimportdata,345millionUSD(324millionEUR)worthofsolarcells,modules,andpanelswereimportedin2022,and200millionUSD(188millionEUR)ofthesamegoodswerealreadyimportedinthefirstquarterof2023.However,theefficiencyofSouthAfrica’scontainerportshashadasignificantimpactontheprocurementofimportedequipment,adding3to6monthstoleadtimes.TheleadtimeshavebeenexacerbatedbytheglobalsupplychainissuespostCOVID-19.Thegrowthoftheutility-scalesectorisfacinglowavailablegridcapacityinhighyieldareas,especiallyintheNorthernCape,EasternCape,andtheWesternCape.TheestablishmentofanindependentTSOentityisexpectedtoenablethedeploymentofnewtransmissioninfrastructureinthemediumtolongterm.Unfortunately,utility-scaleprojects,bothpublicandprivate,willbelimitedtolowersolarpotentialareasintheFreeState,Northwest,andLimpopoprovinces,untilnewtransmissioninfrastructurecomesonline.40MWLindesolarfarm,NorthernCapeProvince,SouthAfrica.©Scatec4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027126Outlookfortheyears2023-2027TheenergylandscapeinSouthAfricawillbedominatedbythegenerationshortfallintheshortandmediumterm,thustheadditionofnewgenerationcapacityfromvarioussources,acquiredviapublicandprivateprocurementprogrammes,willbetheprimarydriverofthecountry’ssolarPVindustry.Theunbundlingofthestate-owned,vertically-integrated,utilityESKOMintothreeunits-namelygeneration,transmission,anddistribution-startedin2017andisprogressingsteadily.Whilethecreationofastate-ownedTSOissettobecompletedinthesecondhalfof2023,workswillcontinuetowardstheestablishmentofafullyliberalisedelectricitymarket.Finally,thedecarbonisationofsupplychainsinresponsetoNationallyDeterminedContribution(NDC)targetsorinternationaltraderequirements,suchastheEUCarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism(CBAM),willdrivefurtheruptakeofsolarPVinSouthAfrica.ThepotentialofgreenhydrogenproductioninhighsolarresourceareasisgainingtractionamongstlocalandinternationalprojectdevelopersandisexpectedtoplayasignificantroleintheSouthAfricanPVlandscapeinthemediumtolongterm.Author:DeWetTaljaard,TechnicalSpecialist:SolarEnergy,SouthAfricanPVIndustryAssociation(SAPVIA).6MW,HeinekenSedibengbrewery,Gauteng,SouthAfrica.©SOLAGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202712720.AustriaOverviewofPVdevelopmentsIn2022,Austriabrokethethresholdofmorethan1GWnewlyinstalledPVsystemsforthefirsttime.Thefinaldatawillonlybepublishedinmid-2023,butpreliminaryforecastsassumethatAustriareachedabout1,000-1,200MWofnewphotovoltaiccapacityin2022,whichisanincreaseof35-62%comparedtothepreviousyear.Alreadyin2021,thenewlyinstalledcapacitymorethandoubledcomparedto2020,withanincreaseof117%from341to740MW.Includingallrecentdata,atotalfleetofaround3.8-4.0GWofPVsystemsisnowinoperation.Withapopulationofapproximately9millionpeople,almost850,000householdsaresuppliedwithelectricityfromPVsystems.NationalTargetsforsolarPVAsacontributiontoachievetheParisAgreement’sgoals,andtheEuropeanUnion’sobjectivetocoveratleast32%ofitsoverallenergyconsumptionwithrenewableenergyby2030–anobjectivenowraisedto42.5%–Austriahasdefinedbindingnationalgoalsforitsenergytransition,throughtheRenewableEnergyExpansionAct(EAG)in2021.Primarily,theEAGincludesAustria’splantocover100%ofitstotalelectricityconsumptionwithrenewablesby2030,andsetsadirectiontobecomeclimate-neutralby2040.Inordertoachievethe2030target,theEAGspecificallymentionsthatrenewableelectricitygenerationmustbeincreasedby27TWhby2030,comparedto2020levels.11outof27TWhmustbegeneratedbyPV.Installing1millionAustriansolarrooftopsby2030willprovecrucialforthisexpansiontarget.SOURCE:PVAustria.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW20INSTALLEDPVCAPACITYINAUSTRIA,BYPVAUSTRIAMW02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800MW05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,0002010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022e20302040Annualnewlyinstalledcapacity2010-2021Annualnewlyinstalledcapacity2010-2022Requiredannualnewlyinstalledcapacity2030/2040Cumulativeinstalledcapacity951873636267859371,0961,2691,4551,7022,0432,7833,80013,00030,000DriversforsolargrowthThemajordriverinthepastyearwasRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,andtheresultingenergycrisis,whichcreatedhighelectricitypricesandattractivefeed-intariffs.However,thePVboominAustriaactuallystartedbefore2022.FallingsystempricesandpublicsubsidiesforPV,combinedwiththegrowingdesireofhouseholdsandcompaniesforenergyautonomy,hascausedahigherdemandfordecentralisedgenerationsystems.Inparticular,PVsubsidieswereconsiderablyincreasedbythegovernmentwiththepublicationoftheEAG,risingfromaround110millionEURin2021,to300millionEURin2022,andhavegrownfurtherto600millionEURfor2023.Inaddition,aspartoftheEAG,amarketpremiumforPVsystems(CfDscheme)hasbeencreatedwiththeaimofdeploying700MWperyear.Insummary,thecombinationofgovernmentalsupport,Russia’sinvasion,andtheenergycrisisresultedinarushforsubsidiesin2022.Utility-scalevs.distributedandrooftopsolardevelopmentsUnfortunately,noclearstatementcanbemadeaboutthedistributionofutility-scale,smallPVsystems,orrooftopsolardevelopmentsinAustria.Gridoperatorsdonotpublishdataregardingproportionsofcentralisedordecentralisedgeneration,orwhichcategories–rooftops,ground-mountedorAgri-PV–wereinstalled.However,therespectiveproportionofrooftopandground-mountedsystemsthatwillbenecessarytoreachtheAustrianexpansiontargetshasbeenassessed.InordertoachievethePVexpansionof11TWhby2030inAustria,ashareofapproximately46%rooftopPV,and54%ground-mountedPVwillberequired.ChallengesforthemarketThegreatestdrawbacksfortheongoingPVboominAustriaaretheslownationalpowergridexpansionand4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027128©PVAustriaGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027129thesevereworkershortage.ThecontinuingincreaseindemandforPVsystemsledtoademandfortrainedspecialistsintheindustry.Whiletherewerearound4,500full-timejobsintheAustrianPVindustryin2021,forecastsfor2030estimatethat30,000jobswillberequired.Regardingthegridexpansion,simplerconnectionproceduresareneededtoachievethespecifiednationaltargets,especiallyforsmallersystems.Significantdeliverybottlenecksforimportantsystemcomponents,resultingfromthecrisesofthelastfewyears,haveledtoare-examinationofmaterialavailability.In2021,theshareofAustrian-manufacturedmodulesinresidentialPVsystemswasonly14%.Today,mostPVsystemcomponentsareproducedby,anddeliveredfromAsiancountries.ThePVmanufacturingindustrymustbestrengthenedattheEuropeanlevelinthecomingyears.AustriawouldalsobenefitfromthisandofcoursewillmakeitscontributiontothereconstructionofthePVindustryintheEU.Anotherdomesticproblemisthedesignationofareasforfree-standingPVsystems.SinceAustriafollowsafederalstructure,thecompetencefor‘go-toareas’forPVsystems,lieswiththeindividualfederalstates.Sofar,only3outof9federalstateshaveprovided‘go-toareas.’OutlookByreachingthethresholdof1GWofnewlyinstalledPVsystemsin2022,Austriahasalreadyreacheditstargetfor2025.Duetopublicsubsidies,theEAG,andunbrokendemand,thePVboomisexpectedtocontinuein2023.ComplementarytotheEAG,anadditionallaw,theRenewableEnergyExpansionAccelerationAct(EABG),isscheduledtobepublishedin2023.Thislawwillaimtoassisttherenewableexpansionbysimplifyingadministrativeprocedures,especiallyforPVsystems.Author:LisaGrün,BundesverbandPhotovoltaicAustria(PVAustria).24.5MW,Grafenwörth,Austria.©BayWar.e.21.UnitedKingdomOverviewofPVdevelopmentsSolarEnergyUKestimatesthattheUKhasabout15.5GWofdeployedsolarPV,whereathirdisinstalledonrooftopsandtherestontheground.Capacitywillbewellabove17GWbytheendof2023.In2022,annualdeploymentreachedover1GWforthefirsttimesincesubsidieswerewithdrawnin2019.Accordingtogovernmentfigures,532MWofsolarinstallationsbelow50kWwereinstalled,althoughthesefiguresdonotincludeanyutility-scaleorlargecommercialrooftopprojects.AccordingtoSolarMedia,481MWofground-mountsolarassetswerebuiltin2022,andweestimatethatatleastanother300MWoflargeC&Irooftopprojectswerealsoinstalled.Thesefiguresareprovisional,butwehaveseenevenfastergrowthinthesub-50kWmarketin2023,whereafurther228MWhadbeendeployedacrosstheUKbytheendofMarch2023.Thepipelineforutility-scaleprojectsisnowsubstantial,withover10GWofsolarfarmshavingreceivedplanningpermissionandaconnectionagreement.Another10+GWarecurrentlyapplyingforpermissiontobebuilt.NationaltargetsforsolarPVTheUKwillhaveatleast70GWofsolarpowerinplaceby2035,accordingtothe2022EnergySecurityStrategy.ThiswasreinforcedbytheEnergySecurityPlaninMarch2023–partoftheso-called‘GreenDay’–whichspokeofthe“hugedeploymentpotentialforsolarpower”inthecountry,andthatrooftopsolar“remainsakeypriorityforthegovernment.”Itconfirmedplansforagovernment-industrytaskforcetosetouthowthegoalwillbemetandmilestonesalongtheway.Perhapsmoreimportantly,theplanputforwardbyRishiSunak’sgovernmentmarkedadefinitivedeparturefromtheoppositiontosolarfarmsexpressedbyLizTrussandhershort-livedCabinet.“Ground-mountedsolarisoneofthecheapestformsofelectricitygenerationandisreadilydeployableatscale.Thegovernmentseekslargescaleground-mountsolardeploymentacrosstheUK,lookingfordevelopmentmainlyonbrownfield,industrial,andlowandmedium-gradeagriculturalland,”itstated.4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027130SOURCE:MCS.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW21.1UKCERTIFIEDSUB-50KWSOLARPVINSTALLATIONS2009-2023Numberofsub-50kWPVinstallations020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000H109H110H111H112H113H114H115H116H117H118H119H120H121H122Jan-May23H209H210H211H212H213H214H215H216H217H218H219H220H221H222GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027131TheScottishGovernmentisalsoexpectedtosetitsowngoal.ItsDraftEnergyStrategyandJustTransitionPlan,releasedinJanuary2023,includedaproposed‘solarvision’,seekingto“maximisethecontributionsolarcanmaketoajust,inclusive,transitiontonetzero”.Whatthedeploymentambitionwillbeiscurrentlyunclear,thoughSolarEnergyUKhasaskedfor4-6GWby2030,upfromlessthan1GWnow.DriversforsolargrowthForrooftops,theenergypricecrisis,risingconsumerawareness,environmentalconsiderationsandthegoodvalueofsolarpanelshavecombinedtodeliveranunprecedentedmarketforsolartechnology.SolarEnergyUKexpectsthatgreatercapacitywillbedeliveredintheunder-50kWmarketin2023thaneverbefore,evenmorethanduringtheheightsofthefeed-intarifferaadecadeago.Thenumberofsuchinstallationslookslikelytoreach225,000in2023,upfrom136,000in2022.Therewereonly36,000in2020,theyearafterthesubsidywasabolished.TheintroductionoftheFutureHomesStandardin2025isexpectedtomeanthatnearlyallnewhomesinEnglandwillbebuiltwithsolarontheroof.Meanwhile,themostimportantinnovationintheground-mountsectoristheriseofverylargesolarfarms.ThelargestcurrentlyunderconstructionisatCleveHillinKent,at350MW.Severalmajorprojectsof500MWandabove,aredueforapprovalbythegovernmentinthecomingyears,thelargestbeingthe840MWBotleyWestdevelopment.ChallengesforthemarketTheUKwashitwithsupplychaindifficultiesin2022,largelyaconsequenceofCOVID-19lockdownsinChina,whichledtosomedelaysinmeetingcontractedinstallations.Themainchallengesnowarescalingupforrisingdemand,findingskilledinstallers,andprotractedwaitingtimesforgridconnections.Delayscanextendwellintothe2030s,presentingaseriousthreattotheviabilityofsomeprojects.Thedelayscangenerallybeattributedtochronicunderinvestmentinthetransmissionanddistributionnetworks,andregulatorycontrolsoninvestingtorectifytheproblem.Thenewtaskforcewillprioritiseaddressingtheseissues.Therearesimplynotenoughtrainedelectricians,aproblemthatthegovernment,regionaladministrationsandSolarEnergyUKhasrecognised.TheMayorofLondon’s‘SolarSkillsLondon’project,nowmanagedbystandardsbodyMCS,hasbeeninthevanguard,reachingouttoyoungpeopletojointhesolarindustry,andorganisingshortintroductorycourses.ThereisgovernmentinteresttointroducesimilarprojectsacrossEngland.1.9MW,TestwoodWaterSupplyWorkssolarfarm,PeelCommon,Hampshire,UK.©JamesHoare/LHWPartnershipOutlookfortheyears2023-3027Theoutlookforthecomingyearsisverypositive.Governmentsupportisguaranteed;ministersareawarethateverypanelinstalledmeansasecurerenergysystem.Thepublicarealsoonboard,withmultiplesurveysdemonstratingthepopularityofsolarpower.Althoughtherehavebeenincreasinglyvocalcampaignsopposingsomesolarfarms,thevastmajorityarestillreceivingplanningpermissionfromlocalcouncils,andenjoyingpublicandpoliticalsupport.Meanwhile,theoppositionLabourPartyhaspledgedtotreblecapacitywithinitsfirsttermifitwinsthenextgeneralelection,duenolaterthanJanuary2025.Thatannouncement,madeinOctober2022,wasadirectconsequenceofLizTruss’briefandunsuccessfulattempttobansolarfarms.Author:GarethSimkins,SeniorCommunicationsAdviser,SolarEnergyUK.4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027132Retrofittedhome,Croydon,UK.©GarethSimkinsSOURCE:SolarEnergyUK.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW21.2UKSOLARPVCAPACITYPROJECTIONSFOLLOWINGENERGYSECURITYPLAN,BYSEUKGW0203020352050102030405060708090100EnergySecurityStrategyambitionAfter'GreenDay'Before'GreenDay'21392863704290GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202713322.MexicoOverviewofPVdevelopmentsIn2022,theMexicansolarPVmarketinstalled1.18GW,a19.7%decreasecomparedtothe1.47GWaddedin2021,41.5%lessthanthe2.02GWaddedin2020,and43.8%lessthanthe2.1GWinstalledin2019.Totalcapacityoperatinginthecountryreached9.35GW,whichconstitutesa12.6%growthfrom2021.Thisisabout15timestheinstalledcapacityin2017.Outofthetotalinstalledcapacity,utility-scalePVrepresents72%(6.72GW),anddistributedsolarPV28%(2.61GW).Utility-scalePVadded580MWofcapacityin2022,significantlylessthantheprevious4years(1.1GWin2021,1.5GWin2020,1.77GWin2019,and1.71GWin2018).Incontrast,distributedsolarPVreachedanewrecordof596MW,25%morethan2021(476MW),16%morethan2020(516MW),andnotablyhigherthan2019and2018(335MWand236MWrespectively).Thisisthefirsttimeinthelast6years,whendistributedsolaradditionswerehigherthanutility-scaleinstallations.Lookingatthewholeelectricitysystem,utility-scalePVcapacityrepresents7.7%oftotalinstalledcapacity(87.7GW),while64%ofinstallationsbelongtofossil-fuelbasedtechnologies.Intermsofpowergeneration,fossil-fuelbasedtechnologiesprovided73.9%,anincreasecomparedto2021(71.4%).Meanwhile,solarPVshowedadeclineforthesecondyearinarow,contributingto4.9%ofpowergenerationin2022,comparedto5.3%in2021and5.7%in2020.RenewableenergyandsolarPVtargetsIn2015,theEnergyTransitionAct(LTE)establishedthetargetedshareofcleanenergyinelectricitygeneration:25%by2018,30%by2021,and35%by2024.BasedonMinistryofEnergydata,Mexicodidnotmeetitscleanenergytargetfor2021(reachingonly28.6%outof30%),andduetocurrentlegaluncertainty,itisnotexpectedtofulfilthe2024target.SOURCE:ASOLMEX.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW22MEXICOTOTALSOLARPVCAPACITY2012-2022,BYASOLMEX01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000MWDistributedsolarPVcapacityUtility-scalePVcapacity201320142015201620172018201920202021202220122,6116,719Inordertopromotethedevelopmentofrenewableenergyandreachcleanenergygoals,apolicyframeworkforCleanEnergyCertificates(CEC)wasestablished,aswellasasystemoflong-termenergyauctionsheldannuallybytheIndependentSystemOperator(ISO).However,regulatorychangescarriedoutoverthelast3yearshavesuspendedthesemechanisms.Atthetimetheywereheld,thelong-termenergyauctionssecurednearly4.66GWofutility-scalePVcapacity,fromwhichapproximately3.42GW(73%)startedoperatingbeforetheendof2022,andtheremaining1.24GWshouldbeinoperationbefore2024.AtCOP27inNovember2022,Mexicoannouncedanupdatednationallydeterminedcontribution(NDC)target,froma22%toa35%reductioningreenhousegasemissionsby2030.StudiesindicatethatMexicowouldneedtoaddatleast30GWofnewrenewableenergycapacity,mainlysolarPVandwind,toreachthisnewNDC.However,noadditionalplansornet-zerotargetshavebeenpublishedsince.ChallengesAfterthe2013EnergyReform,Mexicoreacheditsmaximumannualadditionsinutility-scalePVin2019(1.77GW),mainlybecauseoflong-termenergyauctioncontracts.In2022,additionswere580MW,68%lessthan2019duetotheregulatoryparalysistakingplacesince2020.ToreachitsnewNDC,Mexicowouldneedtoaddatleast20.2GWofutility-scalePVbetween2023and2030,withanaverageof2.5GWperyear.Thiswouldrequireclearmechanismsofpublicandprivateparticipationinthepowersector,whichguaranteesufficientinvestmentsandacceleratedexecutioncapacity.On20July2022,theUnitedStatesTradeRepresentativeannouncedthattheUnitedStateshadrequesteddisputesettlementconsultationswithMexicoundertheUnitedStates-Mexico-CanadaAgreement.TheUS,aswellasCanada,challengedamendmentstoMexico’sElectricityIndustryLawintroducedin2021,thatwouldprioritiseelectricityproducedbystate-ownedcompanyCFE.Atthetimeofwriting,thedisputesettlementpanelhasnotbeenrequestedyet.4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027134101MW,Lagunasolarpark,Matamoros,Coahuila,Mexico.©174PowerGlobalGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027135OutlookNearshoringoffersMexicoauniqueopportunitytoattractinvestmentsinthemanufacturingindustryfromtheUnitedStates.Thiswilleventuallyrequiremoresupplyofcleanenergy,anessentialpreconditionforcompanieswithnet-zerocommitments.Toaccelerateitsdecarbonisation,Mexiconeedstopromotetransparency,accountability,andindependenceoftheregulatoryauthorityandthesystemoperator,whichwillleadtounbiasedregulationandoperation.Mexicomustalsourgentlyincreasepublicandprivateinvestmentstomoderniseandexpandthegrid,anddefinetheroleofenergystoragetoaddflexibilityandreliabilitytothesystem.Author:CarlaMedinaPerezgomez,President,MexicanAssociationofSolarEnergy(Asolmex).36MW,Torreoncitossolarpark,Jiménez,Chihuahua,Mexico.©JaguarSolar23.HungaryEvenbestperformingyearsweresurpassedOverviewofsolarPVdevelopments2022setanewrecordforsolarPVinHungary,with1,102MWofannualinstalledcapacity,surpassingthecountry’salreadystrongperformancesince2019,with700MWto800MWdeployedyearly.Lastyear,Hungary’stotalinstalledcapacityexceeded4GW.Thecountry’snationaltargetwillreach6.5GWby2030,and12GWby2040.Basedonpasttrends,itislikelythatHungarywillsurpassits2030targetearlierthanexpected.Althoughgovernmentofficialshavementionedincreasingthe2030target,therehasbeennoofficialupdateonthissofar.TheHungarianmarketcanbedividedintotwosegments:systemsbelowandabove50kW.However,thereisnodetailedbreakdowncurrentlyavailabletodeterminethesizeofcommercialinstallations.Thesegmentbelow50kWhashadasteadilygrowingrooftopmarketforyears,reachingarecordof406MWin2021.In2022,therewas1,531MWofinstalledrooftopcapacity.Hungarystillhasanet-meteringscheme,inwhichproducedelectricitycanbedeductedfromconsumedelectricityonayearlybasis.WebelievethisisthemostfavourableschemeintheEU.DriversforsolargrowthRecord2021installationnumbersstemmedfromthefearofendingnetmeteringinthatyear.In2022,twodemandshocksledtosimilarinstallationlevels.Firstly,Hungaryhasaregulatedelectricitypricewhichisartificiallykeptlow,inspiteofthis,duetorecord-highenergyprices,thepricedoubledforresidentialconsumersinmid-2022.Inaddition,theregulatedpricewasremovedforSMEs.TheimpactoftheregulatedpricechangesgeneratedahugerushforsmallrooftopPVsystems.4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027136SOURCE:MANAP.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW23HUNGARYCUMULATIVESOLARPVCAPACITY2018-2022,BYMANAPMW05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,50020182019202020212022Above50kWUnder50kWTotal6681,4162,1262,9544,0563324797191,1251,5313369361,4071,8292,525GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027137Secondly,inOctober2022,thegovernmentannouncedafeed-inbanfornewrooftopinstallationsandlefta2-weekdeadlineforapplicationsforfeed-ingridconnections,whichparalysedthegridoperatorswork-flowwithanoverwhelmingamountofrequests.ItalsoledtoahugedemandforPVinstallers.Asaresult,2023isexpectedtobeanotherstrongyear,althoughinstallers’salespeoplearelosingtheirjobsasorderbooksarerunningoutsoon.Fortunately,thefeed-inbanissettobefullyremovedbytheendof2024,startinggraduallyinSeptember2023,whichcouldhelptoprovidesomereliefalreadyin2023.Installationsabove50kW,mainlyground-mountedsystems,jumpedto696MW,settinganewrecordinHungary.Thesesystemsnowtotal2,525MW.Thedynamicsareinteresting,asthelargestpartofthesesystemswerestillbuiltundertheoldfeed-intariffsystem(KÁT)thatendedin2016.AfterKÁT,Hungarystartedanewauction-basedContractforDifference(CfD)supportscheme,calledMETÁR,with5roundstotalling933MWofprojectssince2019.However,bytheendof2022,only60MWwereoperatingundertheMETÁRscheme.Themainreasonbehindthiswastherecord-highelectricitymarketprices.DeveloperswerereluctanttoentertheMETÁRscheme,andmanyalsoabandonedortemporarilysteppedoutoftheoldKÁTschemetosellelectricityontheHungarianElectricityExchange.PVpowerplantsarealsoseeinggoodopportunitiesinlonger-termPowerPurchaseAgreements(PPAs)withconsumers.However,apartfromafewmilestonecontracts,thishasnotyetbecomemainstream.Unfortunately,smallandmediumcommercialinstallationshavebeensidelinedduetogridconnectionproblems,despitehighdemand.ChallengesGridconnectionisthemainchallengeforPVdevelopmentinHungary.Whilethenationaltargetfor2030is6.5GW,theoperatingcapacityhasalreadyexceeded4GW,andtheHungariangridhasitslimits.SinceApril2021,ithasnotbeenpossibletoobtainanewgridconnectionforsystemsover50kW.TheHungarianTSOhasstatedthatisbecauseofconnectionrightsalreadyissued,andthegrowthofrooftopsystems,forwhichalreadymorethan5GWhavebeenreservedforthenext4years.AstheHungariangridloadaverages6GWandnobalancingcapacitiesweredevelopedinthepast10years,thegridwillverysoonbeatitslimits.AmoreregulatedandtransparentsystemforgridconnectionapplicationswassettobegininMay2022.Nevertheless,theoriginaldeadlineof31stJuly2022forresponsesbygridoperatorshasbeendelayedfourtimes;itisstillnotyetcompleted.10MW,Paks,Hungary.©VasváriTamás/MTIHowever,asmanygridcapacitieshavealreadybeenallocated,theutilitysegmentisexpectedtoremainstrongoverthenexttwoyears,possiblysurpassing600MWofnewcapacitieseachyear.Beyond2025,thesituationisdifficulttopredict,anddependsongridconnectionpossibilities.Inapositivescenario,newcapacitiescanremainabove500MW,butinanegativescenario,theymaydropbacktoafewhundredMW.Forrooftopsystems,the‘feed-inban’,andtheendofissuingnewnet-meteringschemesbytheendof2023,mayslowdownprogress.While2023islikelytobeagoodyearforrooftopsolarwith400MWinstalled,everythingdependsonthenewsystementeringintoeffectafternetmetering,commonlyknowninHungaryas“grossmetering.”Itwilldefinitelybelessbeneficialthanthecurrentscheme.Unfortunately,detailsabouthowitwilloperatearestillunknown.Inapositivescenario,newrooftopinstallationswillnotdeclinesharply,andtheycanremainat250-300MWlevels,butinanegativescenario,theymaydropbackto100-150MWlevels.Author:ÁdámSzolnoki,President,MANAP(HungarianPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation).24.PakistanOverviewofsolarPVdevelopmentsPakistanhasmadesignificantprogressinthedevelopmentofsolarenergyinrecentyears.AccordingtotheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA),thecountry’stotalinstalledsolarcapacityreached1GWbytheendof2021,upfrom655MWin2017.SolarcapacityinPakistanhasbeensteadilyincreasingovertheyears,andthegovernmentisnowaimingtoachieveevenmoreambitioustargets.ItisestimatedthatanotherGWofgrid-connectedsolarwasaddedin2022,breakingallpreviousrecordsandbringingtheannualmarkettoGW-scaleforthefirsttime.AccordingtothegovernmentalagencyAlternativeEnergyDevelopmentBoard(AEDB),anadditionalsolarandwindcapacityof14GWwillbeaddedinthenext10years.SolarhasahugepotentialinPakistan,consideringthatroughly25%ofthecountryisstillwithoutgridaccess.Withayoungpopulationofmorethan230millioncitizens,Pakistanislookingatsolarenergyasthekeysolutiontoitsenergyneeds.Thevibrantprivatesectorcantapintothispotential.Currently,installersareveryactiveindeployingsolarcapacitiesfortubewellsandvillageswithoutgridaccess.4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027138139kW,Universityofengineering&technologyLahore(KSK)campus,Pakistan.©PSAGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027139DriversforsolargrowthOnApril18th,2023,AEDBCEOShahJahanMirzaemphasisedPakistan’simmenserenewableenergypotential.“Pakistanhasanambitiousgoalofadding14,000MWofsolarandwindenergytothegridinthenext10years,”hesaid.Toachievethesetargets,thegovernmenthaslaunchedseveralinitiatives,includingthesettingupoftheAEDB,andtheNationalEnergyEfficiencyandConservationAuthority(NEECA).ThePakistanigovernmenthasalsointroducednetmeteringandotherpolicyinitiativestoencouragetheadoptionofsolarenergybyhouseholdsandbusinesses.Moreover,promotionofthedevelopmentoflarge-scalesolarprojectsiskey.OneoftheseprojectsistheQuaid-e-AzamSolarParkinBahawalpur,whichisoneofthelargestsolarparksintheworld,withacapacityof1GW.Thepotentialremainslargeinotherapplicationsaswell,withalmost1milliontubewellsandpumpsjustwaitingtobe‘solarised’.Pakistanhasexperiencedblackoutsforseveralyears,andsolarenergyisseentoimproveenergysecurity,andreducedependenceonfossilfuels.Solaraddressesalsotheongoingelectrificationtrend,ensuringthattheremaining25%ofthecountrygetsaccesstoregulargridpower.AnimportantdriverforrenewableenergyuptakeinPakistanstemsfromclimatechangeconcerns.WithPakistanbeingoneofthemostvulnerablecountriestotheimpactsofclimatechange,thereisagrowingawarenessoftheneedtoreducegreenhousegasemissions.Utilityscalevs.rooftopsolarsplitsandtheirprogressAccordingtoIRENAandindependentresearchers,utility-scaleinstallationsarebyfarthelargestsegmentwithintheinstalledsolarcapacityinPakistan,witha72%sharein2021(Fig.24).Thedominanceofutility-scalesolar,however,hasdecreasedcomparedtothepastyears,andisexpectedtobesignificantlyfurtherreducedinthefutureasconsumersadoptsolartomanageincreasingpricesofelectricityonthegrid.Intermsofgeographicaldistribution,mostoftheutility-scalesolarprojectsareintheprovincesofPunjabandSindh,whilerooftopsolarismoreprevalentintheurbanareasofPunjabandKhyberPakhtunkhwa.SOURCE:IRENA..©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW24PAKISTANSOLARPVANNUALSEGMENTATION2017-2021,BYPSA0102030405060708090100%20212017201820192020Utility-scaleRooftop28%1%3%6%14%72%99%97%94%86%ConclusionPakistanhasmadesignificantprogressintheadoptionofsolarenergyinthepastfewyears,withthecountryovershootingitspreviousinstallationtargets.Asaresult,thegovernmenthassetanambitioustargetofinstalling14GWofsolarandwindcapacityinthenext10yearsasofApril2023.Whiletherearestillchallengestoovercome,suchasfinancing,landacquisition,andgridintegration,thegrowthofsolarenergyinPakistanisexpectedtocontinueinthecomingyears.Thecountryhasthepotentialtobecomeaninternationalleaderintermsofsolarenergyadoptionandindoingso,willreapthebenefitsofincreasedenergysecurity,reducedemissions,andjobcreation.Authors:FaheemAshraf,WaqasMoosaandFaisalJamal,PakistanSolarAssociation(PSA).25.IsraelIsrael’sPVmarketsuccessfullycrossedthe1GWlandmarkofannualinstallationsin2022(1.03GW),allowingthecountrytoreachitstargetofgenerating10%ofitselectricityfromrenewablesources.Originally,thecountryaimedforthistargetfor2020.Altogether,Israelnowhasatotalof4,795MWofinstalledrenewableenergycapacity.In2021,thecountryupdateditsRESgoals,toreacha30%shareofitselectricitygeneratedfromrenewablesourcesby2030.The2030objectivetranslatestoabout12.5GWofsolarPVbeingaddedtothecurrent4.5GWinstalled,alongside10GWhofstorage.Asof2023,solarPVisresponsibleformostoftheRESgenerationinIsrael,whichhasnohydroelectricpower,limitedwaste-to-energy(40MW),threewindfarms(130MW),andtwoconcentratedsolarpowerplants(250MW).Furthermore,mostofIsrael’sPVgenerationcomesfromdual-useinstallations,suchasrooftopsandwaterreservoirs,responsiblefor60%ofPVgeneration.Theremaining40%areground-mountedPVplants,rangingfrom3MWtothelargestZeelim145MWsolarpark.Historically,Israelhasanimpressivesolarpowerheritage.Withhighsolarirradiance(1,650-1,750kWh/kWp),andwith1,900sunhoursperannum,solarwatercollectorscovermuchofIsrael’srooftops(94%ofhouseholds),andsavesome4%onannualnationalelectricityconsumption.Israelwasthefirstcountrytomakesolarpowercompulsoryunderbylawsintheearly1980srequiringallnewmulti-residentialbuildingtodeploysolarwaterheaters.TheTaborselectivesurface,usedinwatersolarcollectors,wasinventedinIsrael,andalsoenabledthefirstcommercialconcentratedsolarpower(CSP)system,byIsraelifirmLUZinCaliforniainthe1980s.TheBrightsourcetowertechnologyalsooriginatedinIsrael,bythesamefoundersofLUZ,responsiblefortheworld’s2ndlargestCSPsolarplant,theIvanpahsolarplantlocatedinCalifornia.Nevertheless,IsraelhasbeenverycautiouswhenitcomestosolarPVimplementation,inallowingthemarkettodevelopquickly.ThefirstPVschemeforrooftopsbelow50kWwasintroducedbyIsrael’s4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027140GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027141electricityauthorityPUAin2008,andwaslimitedtoasmallcapof50MW,whichlaterincreasedto150MW.Whilethesecapstargetedconsumers,in2010a300MWcapenableddeveloperstobenefitfromalicensingschemeforinstallationsofupto5MW.From2011to2018,thePUAPVschemeswerelimited,rangingbetween20-30MWofannualcapsforconsumers,withtheexceptionofa180MWCSPcapconvertedtoutility-scalePV.TheseyearsreflectIsrael’sconservativeapproachtowardssolarPVandrenewableenergyatlarge,nottosubsidisetheirelectricityproduction.Despiteitsenvironmentalbenefits,andthenegativeeffectsoffossilgeneration,thoseelementsthatwereneveraccountedforbyPUA.IsraelwaswaitingforPVtobecomeeconomicallyviableand,in2016,thefirstnet-meteringschemewasintroducedreflectinggridparity,andallowing380MWofsolarrooftopstobeinstalled.However,thesuccessfulschemedidnotlastlong.ThePUA,whichwastargetinga“freemarket”policy,cancelledthescheme,andlaunchedaseriesofauctionsforground-mountedprojectsconnectedtothehighvoltagegridin2019,asideauctionsfordual-usePVsystems(rooftopsandwaterreservoirs),utility-scale(“minimalsecurity”tariff),andPVplusstorage(with777MWcommissioned).Duringthisauctioningera,thegovernment’slandpolicystartedtochange.Pro-environmentactivistNGOs,withthesupportoftheMinistryofEnvironmentalProtection,managedtoblockmanyground-mountedsolarprojects.Asaresult,in2020,theNationalZoningCommitteerestrictedtheimplementationofground-mountedprojects.Thecurrentgovernmentistryingtochangethisdecision(re-approvedin2021)but,beingasmallcountry,theuseoflandisexpectedtoactasacentralbarriertoanyfutureground-mountedprojects.Intermsofrooftopsolar,agenerousfeed-intariff(FIT)schemewasapprovedin2018,andgrantedtariffsof0.45ILS/kWh(0.11EUR/kWh)over25yearsforPVsystemsbelow100kW.TheFITwaslaterenlargedtoPVsystemsupto200kW.Theschemewasverysuccessful,andaround2.4GWofapplicationsweresubmitted,outofwhich1.4GWwereinstalled.Theaimwastoreachthenational10%REStargetby2020,whichwasonlyachievedin2022asmentionedabove.TheauctionsandFITschemeallowedIsraeltojumpfrom5%RESin2019,to10%in2022.However,thegenerousFITschemewasreplacedin2021bya“gradualtariff”schemeforinstallationsupto630kW(lowvoltagelimit),butwithdecreasingtariffsSOURCE:GEA-IL.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW25ISRAELSOLARPVMARKET2018-2022,BYGEA-IL00.20.40.60.81.01.2GW202220182019202020211.03dependingonthesizeoftheproject.TheIsraelisolarindustryhascriticisedthisschemeforcuttingdownthegeneroustariffsof2019.In2022,thePUAmanagedtoperformits“freemarket”masterplan,whicheffectivelystartedinJanuary2023,andwillbeopentorenewableenergysourcesfromJanuary2024.Themasterplanintroducesnewelectricitydistributors,thatcanbuyfromRESproducersandselltoallocatedconsumersunderPPAs.ThePUAisnolongersettingaFIT,noradministeringauctionsforground-mountedplants–theendresultofalengthy20yearelectricitymarketreformprocess,whichwasonlymadepossiblebyreachingahistoricalcompromisewiththeIsraelElectricCorporationtradeunion.In2018,theIsraeliParliament,theKnesset–whichalsoownsa450kWsolarrooftop–approvedtheelectricitymarketreform,andpavedthewayfortheliberalisationofthemarketwithanindependentTSOandothernecessarymarketmechanisms.In2018,theoutlookappearedpositivefortheIsraelisolarindustry.However,thereisnowagrowinggridsaturation,blockingnewsolarinstallationsinseveralregionsbecauseof20yearsofgovernmentneglect.Untilthenewgriddevelopmentmasterplanreceivesministerialapproval,onlyresidentialinstallationsupto10kWcangetanautomaticapproval,whichgoesupto15kWinsomecities.Onthebrightside,thisgiganticobstacleforsolarintegrationisalsothemaindriverforstoragedeployment.Thegriddevelopmentmasterplanincludesthe10GWhtarget,reflectedinthecountry’s2030RESplan.Thegridsaturationisalsoanobstacleforthecommercialrooftopsegment.InApril2023,anewFITschemewasintroducedtargetingalreadyinstalledrooftopsthatcannowenlarge,addstorage,andusethesamegridconnectiontoexportstoredelectricityandreceiveanFIT.Thesuccessofthispioneeringschemeisstillunknownandwillbetestedin2023.ThelackoflandinIsraelhasalsocreatedanewmarketdriverforAgri-PV,whichispromotedbythegovernmentunderapilotscheme.Some140plotswerechosen,andthefirst8MWMaaleGilobasiteisunderconstruction.Israel’sstrengthininnovation,IT,agricultureandsolartechnologies,isexpectedtoplayamajorroleinAgri-PV;thisisapromisingtechnologywhichcouldacceleratethedomesticmarket.Moreover,financinginIsraelisavailablethroughlocalbanksandlocalinstitutionalinvestors.Author:EitanParnass,Director&Founder,GreenEnergyAssociationofIsrael(GEA-IL).4GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027142450kWontheIsraeliKnesset,Jerusalem,Israel.©IzhakHarari(KennestArchives)GlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-202714326.SwitzerlandThefirstGWmarketbasedexclusivelyonrooftopprojectsSwitzerland’ssolarPVmarketisalmostexclusivelybasedonrooftopprojects.Theseinstallationsarestandard,asground-mountedsystemsoutsidebuildingzonesareusuallynotapproved,andwithinbuildingzones,landistooexpensive.Consequently,theSwisssolarindustryhasspecialisedininstallingsolaronrooftopsandbuildingfacades.Localresearchinstitutesandmanufacturershavealsocontributedsignificantlytothedevelopmentofbuilding-integratedphotovoltaic(BIPV)products.Theintroductionofthecost-coveringfeed-intariffin2009triggeredtheinitialsolarPVboom,butitcametoahaltin2014duetothecappingofavailablefunds.In2018,withthenewEnergyAct,anewsupportregimewasintroduced,replacingthefeed-intariffwithaone-timeremunerationcoveringamaximumof30%oftheinvestmentcosts.Thisledtoannualmarketgrowthofover40%from2019,relativelyevenlydistributedacrossthedifferentrooftopsegments.In2022,anadditional1GWislikelytohavebeengrid-connectedforthefirsttimeinasingleyear,andanadditionofatleast1.2GWisexpectedfor2023.Thetotalinstalledcapacityattheendof2022wasaround4.6GW,whichsuppliesapproximately7%ofSwitzerland’sannualelectricitydemand.Therewasaround180,000installationsintotal;thelargestsofarhasbeenawarehouserooftopwith8.3MWcapacity.TargetsThecurrentEnergyActsetsaproductiontargetof11.4TWhofelectricityfromrenewableenergies(excludinghydropower)by2035.However,theparliamentiscurrentlydiscussingasignificantincreaseinthistargetto35TWh,withoutnamingtargetsforindividualtechnologies.ForsolarPV,thiswouldcorrespondtoanindicativelevelofabout30TWhby2035,aroundseventimesmorethantoday.Thiswillcomeintoforcein2025,SOURCE:Swissolar.©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2023FIGUREGW26ANNUALSOLARPVINSTALLATIONANDSCENARIOSINSWITZERLAND,2019-2026,BYSWISSOLAR0MWResidentialCommercialrooftopInfrastructureandground-mountedResidentialCommercialrooftopInfrastructureandground-mounted5001,0001,5002,0002,5002019202020212022LowLowLowLowLowHighHighHighHighHigh20232024202520264GW-scalemarkets/continuedGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027144providedthattheamendmenttothelawisacceptedintheexpectedreferendumthatisstilltobescheduled.DriversforsolargrowthEnergycostsandstreamlinedfinancingareakeydriverforsolargrowth.AsacrossEurope,inSwitzerland,highelectricitypricesandthefearofsupplyshortageswereadditionalmarketdriversin2022.Whiletheone-timeremunerationintroducedin2018hasprovedsuccessful,itispaidwithoutlengthyadministrativeprocedures,andafterashortperiod.Thishasgeneratedahighleveloftrustinthisfundinginstrument.Moreover,theinvestmentcanbedeductedfromtaxes.Morewidely,significantstepsinelectrificationinheatingandtransporthasalsosparkedsolardemand.Therapidconversionofmanyfossil-fuelheatingsystemstoheatpumps,triggeredbycantonalregulationsregardingheatingsystemreplacement,hasincreasedself-consumption.Thesameappliestoelectricmobilityandelectricvehicles,whichareexperiencingarapiduptake.InterestinglyinSwitzerland,wearealsoseeinghowframeworksforenergysharingcanboostsolaruptake.Formulti-familyhousesandcommercialbuildings,the“self-consumptionassociations”(ZEV)areimportant.Introducedin2018,thisinstrumentallowsthesaleofsolarelectricitywithinbuildings,andtootherbuildingsaslongasthepublicdistributiongridisnotused.Thiscansignificantlyincreaseself-consumption.AspartoftheaforementionedrevisionoftheEnergyAct,theintroductionof“localelectricityassociations”isplanned,whicharealsoallowedtousethedistributiongridatareducedtariff.MarketsegmentationSlightlyoverhalfoftheinstalledcapacityarePVsystemsonindustrial,commercial,officeandpublicbuildings;andagriculturalroofs.Around45%ofsolarPVsystemsareinstalledonresidentialbuildings,withthree-quartersofthembeingsingle-familyhomes.Installationsoninfrastructuressuchascarparksandroadroofs,noisebarriers,ordamwallshavebeenmarginallyrepresentedsofar.Althoughthepercentageofsolarfacadesystemsisstillsmall,itisalsogrowing.ChallengesTheSwisssolarindustryfacesamajorchallengeinfindingskilledworkers.OntheinitiativeofSwissolar,agovernment-endorsedvocationalapprenticeshipwillbeofferedfromsummer2024.Inaddition,furthertrainingcoursesareofferedforspecialisttrainees.Heuwinkelhousingestate,Allschwil,Switzerland.©SwissolarGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027145Anothermajorobstacleisthewidelyvaryingpurchasetariffsforsolarelectricityfedintothegrid,whichdiffersconsiderablyamongtheapproximately640distributiongridoperators.TherevisedEnergyActaimstointroduceamarket-based,uniformremuneration,withaguaranteedlowerlimit.Manyenergysuppliersarealsolimitingsolarexpansionbecausetheirlinecapacitiesareinsufficient.Thedemandforalimitonmaximumfeed-inisunderdiscussion.OutlookStartingin2023,severalnewsupportmechanismshavecomeintoeffect.Anewregulation(Art.71aoftheEnergyAct)allowsforsimplifiedapproval,andupto60%subsidiesforAlpineground-mountedsystemsproducingmorethan500kWh/kWduringtheWinter,andanannualproductionofatleast10GWh.ThislawwasintroducedduetoconcernsaboutWinterpowersuppliesfollowingthedecommissioningofnuclearpowerplants,whichcannotbereplacedwithnewones.However,itisuncertainhowmanyAlpinesolarprojectscanberealisedduetoinsufficientconnectionlinecapacities.Increasedsubsidiesarealsobeingpaidforsystemswithoutself-consumptionthroughauctionsforsystemslargerthan150kW.Theconstructionofagri-PVsystemshasbeenpermitted,butthesesystemsmustleadtoadditionalyieldsforagriculturalcrops,whichlimitstheirscopeofapplication.ThereisalsoaWinterbonusforallPVsystemsthathaveaminimum75degreestiltangle,creatinganadditionalincentiveforfacadesystems.Allofthesemeasuresareexpectedtoleadtosignificantmarketgrowth.Author:DavidStickelberger,HeadMarketandPolitics,Swissolar.2.2MWalpinesolarplantatMuttsee,Switzerland.©axpo50MWMargaritisolarfarm,Greece.©ABOWind/PanosKanesoulis©FluxSolarGlobalMarketOutlookForSolarPower2023-2027√√√√√√SolarPowerEurope-LeadingtheEnergyTransitionRond-PointRobertSchuman2-4,1040Brussels,BelgiumT+3227095520/F+3227253250info@solarpowereurope.org/www.solarpowereurope.orgISBNNUMBER9789464669046www.solarpowereurope.org

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