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2023-07-03
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CGD NOTE | JUNE 2023

Decarbonizing the Maritime

Industry: An Opportunity to Further

Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition

Annika Seiler

The race is on to decarbonize the energy sector in Indonesia. In November 2022, the government

1

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







Ministry of







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









DECARBONIZING THE MARITIME INDUSTRY: AN OPPORTUNITY TO FURTHER 2

INDONESIA’S JUST ENERGY TRANSITION

Decarbonizing the shipping industry











IMO, 2020







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

DECARBONIZING THE MARITIME INDUSTRY: AN OPPORTUNITY TO FURTHER 3

INDONESIA’S JUST ENERGY TRANSITION

Opportunities and synergies for green shipping in

Indonesia

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





































2022The Maritime











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CGDNOTEJUNE2023DecarbonizingtheMaritimeIndustry:AnOpportunitytoFurtherIndonesia’sJustEnergyTransitionAnnikaSeilerTheraceisontodecarbonizetheenergysectorinIndonesia.InNovember2022,thegovernmentofIndonesiaandtheInternationalPartnersGroup(IPG)1launchedtheirJustEnergyTransitionPartnership(JETP).Aspartofthepartnership,Indonesiacommittedtoraisetheshareofrenewablesinitspowergenerationmixfromitscurrentlevelof19percentto34percentby2030.Thecountryalsocommittedtoachievinganearlypeakingofcarbonemissionsandadvancingitsnet-zeroemissioncommitmentbyadecadefrom2060to2050.InreturnforIndonesia’sincreasedpolicyambitions,theIPGinconjunctionwithleadingfinancialinstitutionspledgedtosupportthecountrywithaninitialamountof$20billion,halfofwhichwillcomefromtheprivatesector.(MinistryofFinanceofJapan,2022)Indonesia’sJETPhasreceivedconsiderableattentionasaleadingtestcaseforhowdonors,providersofofficialfinance,andtheprivatesectorcanpartnerwithlow-andmiddle-incomecountriestoreduceemissionswhilepromotingdevelopmentprogress.Sofar,mostofthefocusinIndonesia’sJETPhasbeenoneffortstoreducethesupplyofcarbon-intensivepowerbyrefinancingcoal-firedpowerplantstoretirethemearlyandreplacethemwithrenewables.Butthisstrategyalonemaynotdeliverthespeedandscaleofthetransitionrequiredasitreliesonlargeamountsofgrantandconcessionalfunding,whichmaybedifficulttosecure.Effortstoboostdemandforrenewable-basedenergydeservemoreattention.OnesucheffortisparticularlypromisingingeneratingsynergiesforIndonesia’slow-carbondevelopmentgoals.DECARBONIZINGTHEMARITIMEINDUSTRY:ANOPPORTUNITYTOFURTHER2INDONESIA’SJUSTENERGYTRANSITIONDecarbonizingtheshippingindustryFiveyearsafteradoptingitsinitialstrategyonreducinggreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsfromships,theInternationalMaritimeOrganization(IMO)isacceleratingitseffortstodecarbonizetheshippingsector,theworld’sseventh-largestcarbonemitter.Nextmonth,theIMOisexpectedtoadoptamoreambitiousstrategytocutcarbonemissionsfromthesector,whoseGHGemissionsareprojectedtoincreaseupto50percentby2050comparedto2018levelsifnewregulationsaren’tadopted(IMO,2020).IfIMOfullyalignsthenewstrategywiththe1.5°Cclimategoal,itcouldtriggermajorinvestmentsinalternativebunkerfuels(thefuelusedbymarinevessels)thatproduceverylow,andultimatelyzero,GHGemissionsduringtheirproduction,distribution,anduse.Itcouldalsopromptnewinvestmentsinzero-emissionvesselsthatcanoperateonsuchalternativefuels.Zero-andlow-emissionbunkerfuelsupplyinfrastructureinvestmentsaccountfornearly90percentoftheestimated$1.4to$1.9trillionneededtofullydecarbonizetheshippingindustryby2050(GMF,2021;UMAS,2020).Whileresearchanddevelopmentisongoing,studiesidentifiedgreenammoniaasthemostpromisingzero-emissionfueloptionforlargerships,followedbygreenhydrogen.2Comparedtootherpotentiallow-andzero-emissionbunkerfuels,greenammoniaisassessedtohavethelargestcostreductionpotentialovertimeandsuperiorstoragecharacteristicscomparedtogreenhydrogen.Itsscalabilitymakesitamorefavorablefuelcomparedtolow-emissionbiofuels,particularlysuitedforlong-distanceshippingroutes.Moreover,ammoniaasafertilizerisinternationallytradedandportsareexperiencedinhandlingandstoringit.Accordingly,annualdemandforgreenammoniaforshippingisprojectedtoincreasebyupto950millionmetrictonsby2050andrepresenta$5trillionmarket(McKinsey2023,WorldBank,2021,UMAS,2020).TheGlobalMaritimeForumestimatesthatbetween18and20exajouleofalternativezero-emissionfuelwouldberequiredtofullydecarbonizetheshippingsector(GMF,2021).Basedonthisprojection,weestimatethatby2030,between70GWand100GWofadditionalrenewablepowerandgreenhydrogen/ammoniaproductioncapacitywouldneedtobeinstalled,providedgreenammoniabecomesthepreferredalternativezero-emissionfuel;by2050,thatestimaterisestobetween800GWand1,200GW.Toachievefulldecarbonizationby2050andthenecessarylarge-scaledeploymentofalternativefuelsbetween2030and2040,rapidprogressmustbemadebetweennowand2030andatleast5percentoftheshippingfuelmixmustbemadeupoflow-orzero-emissionfuels(GMF,2021).DECARBONIZINGTHEMARITIMEINDUSTRY:ANOPPORTUNITYTOFURTHER3INDONESIA’SJUSTENERGYTRANSITIONOpportunitiesandsynergiesforgreenshippinginIndonesiaThemaritimeindustryisofstrategicimportanceforIndonesia,thelargestarchipelagiccountryintheworld.Indonesiaiscomposedofover17,000islandsandislocatedalongtwooftheworld’sbusiesttraderoutes:theStraitofMalacca,andtheSundaStrait.In2021,Indonesiaregisteredatrade-to-GDPratioof39.5percent;itsyear-on-yearmerchandisetradegrewbyabout40percentandaccountedfor91percentofIndonesia’stotaltrade.From2017-2021,Indonesia’smerchandiseexportsgrewby11.8percent,fasterthantheAsiaPacificregion’s9.6percentannualaveragegrowthduringthesameperiod(ESCAP,2023).Indonesia’scontainerthroughputin2021amountedto14,025,449TEU(twenty-footequivalentunit—ameasurementofcargocapacity).ThisislargerthanthatofFranceandtheUKcombined(UNCTADSTAT,2023).Indonesiahas11internationalcontainerports,97bunkeringports,and141oilterminals.Morethan900,000workersareengagedinbothinternationalanddomesticshipping(IMO,2023).Indonesia’sGHGemissionsfromshippingin2018areestimatedtorepresentabout3.7percentofglobaltotalshippingemissions,87percentofwhichareemittedbybulkcarriers,tankers,containerships,andsmallerindustrialships.(GMF,2022).Giventherapidtradeexpansion,Indonesia’sshareinglobalemissionisforecasttoincreaserapidlywithouttimelyintervention.ThisunderlinestheimportantroleIndonesiahasinsupportingshippingdecarbonizationinthedecadestocome.Atthesametime,thetransformationintheglobalbunkerfuelmarketandforeseeablenear-termdemandforzero-emissionbunkerfuelsdrivenbyfirst-movergreencorridor3projectsunderdevelopmentnearIndonesiaofferthecountryanexcellentopportunitytoleverageitsnationalcomparativeadvantages,positionitselfasamajorexporterduringtheperiodofgrowingdemandexpectedfrom2030onwards,andpreparefordecarbonizingitsnationalmaritimeactivity.TheportofSingapore,theworld’ssecond-largesttransshipmentport(UNCTAD,2022)andjust8nauticalmilesfromamajorIndonesianbunkeringhub,isattheheartofseveralfirst-movergreenshippingcorridorinitiatives.InAugust2022,SingaporelaunchedagreencorridorwithEurope’slargestportinRotterdam(TheMaritimeExecutive,2022).ItisalsoatthecenteroftheLlyod’sRegisterandpartners’SilkAlliancegreencorridor,linkingSoutheastAsiatoChina,theIndiansubcontinent,andtheArabianPeninsula,whichwaslaunchedearlierin2022(Llyod’sRegister,2022);andonelaunchedwiththeportsofLosAngelesandLongBeachinApril2023(TheMaritimeExecutive,2023).Finally,itisalsoatthecrossroadsofapotentialgreenshippingcorridorunderdevelopmentbytheQuadrilateralSecurityDialogue(QUAD)partners.Theviabilityoftheseprojectsdependsonasecureandreliablesupplyoflow-costzero-andlow-emissionbunkerfuels.Todate,theshortfallinproductioncapacityremainslarge.Forexample,theannouncedgreenhydrogenandgreenammoniaproductioncapacityalongtheEastAsia-EuropeDECARBONIZINGTHEMARITIMEINDUSTRY:ANOPPORTUNITYTOFURTHER4INDONESIA’SJUSTENERGYTRANSITIONcorridorislessthan10percentofwhatwouldberequiredby2030toachievefulldecarbonizationby2050.4Indonesiaiswellplacedtoseizetheopportunitiesfromthedecarbonizationofmaritimeshippingandunfoldsynergieswithitsambitiouseffortstowardajustenergytransition,asunderlinedbyseveralfactors.First,IndonesiaalreadyhasaclearvisiontoimprovemaritimeconnectivityanddevelopnecessaryinfrastructurethatisbeingcarriedoutthroughtheGlobalMaritimeFulcrum.Overthelastdecade,Indonesiamultiplieditsdiplomatictiesandsignedcooperationagreementswithkeypartners,includingAustralia,China,Japan,Singapore,andtheUnitedStatestodevelophumanandmarineresources,institutionalandmaritimegovernance,andmaritimeeconomyandinfrastructure(LalisangandCandra,2020).TheMinistryforMaritimeAffairsandInvestmentsisnotonlythemainimplementoroftheGlobalMaritimeFulcrumbutisalsotheleadnegotiatorforIndonesia’sJETPwiththeIPG.Theintersectionoftheserolesbringseffortsunderoneroof,creatingsynergiesforefficientpolicycoordinationtoaddresstechnical,financial,commercial,andpoliticalchallengesrelatedtothedecarbonizationoftheeconomythatideallyneedtobesolvedinparallelandatonce.Second,Indonesiaisendowedwithabundantrenewableresourcesandhasrecentlysignificantlyimprovedthebusinessecosystemforanaccelerateddeploymentoftheseresources.TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyestimatedthatIndonesia’ssolar,wind,andgeothermalresourcepotentialexceeds3,500gigawatts,ofwhichover99percentremainsundevelopedtodate(IRENA,2022).InSeptember2022,thecountrypromulgatedarevisedpricingregimeforrenewables,puttingthematparwithfossilfuel-basedresourcesandsignificantlyreducingin-countrydevelopmentrisks.Third,Indonesiacanleverageexistingpartnerships,includingtheJETPandthosebetweendomesticstate-ownedenterprisesandprivatesectorentitieswithinternationaldeveloperstoscaleuptheirlearningandproductioninfrastructureforalternativezeroandlow-emissionbunkerfuels.Forexample,in2022,Pertamina,thestate-ownedoilandnaturalgascorporation,signedagreementswithChevron&KeppelInfrastructuretodevelopageothermal-poweredgreenammoniaproductionplant,andonewithAramcotoexplorethepotentialforcarboncapture,utilization,andstoragetoproducelow-emissionammonia(AmmoniaEnergy,2023).Fourth,thecountryisalsoimprovingitssustainablefinancebusinessecosystemforanacceleratedgreentransition.InFebruary2023,thegovernmentlaunchedamandatory,intensity-basedemissionstradingschemecoveringcoal-firedpowerplantsthataccountfor81.4percentofthecountry’snationalpowergenerationcapacity(WorldBank,2023).DECARBONIZINGTHEMARITIMEINDUSTRY:ANOPPORTUNITYTOFURTHER5INDONESIA’SJUSTENERGYTRANSITIONIndonesiahasalsoexpandedaccesstogreenfinanceinrecentyears.Sovereigngreensukuks(Islamicbonds)arenowIndonesia’smainfinancinginstrumentforclimateactions,renewableenergy,sustainabletransportation,andclimatechangeresilienceprojects.AsofMarch2022,Indonesia’stotaloutstandinggreensukukandsustainablebondsreachedUS$7.1billion(ADB,2022).Thegrowthofitssustainablebondmarkethasbeensupportedbythegovernment’sstrongcommitmenttoimplementingASEAN’sSustainableCapitalMarketsRoadmap.Since2017,ithasadoptedgreen,social,andsustainability(GSS)andSustainableDevelopmentGoal(SDG)bondframeworksaswellastheASEANTaxonomyforSustainableFinance.ChallengestoandSolutionsforIndonesia’sMaritimeDecarbonizationForIndonesiatorealizethepotentialsynergieswiththedecarbonizationoftheinternationalshippingindustry,itwillneedtodevelopitszero-emissionbunkerfuelsupplychain,includingfuelproduction,transport,distribution,andstorage.Asbunkeringshiftstoportsthatcanprovidethemostcompetitivefuels,Indonesiamustaddressthecostgapbetweenthezero-emissionandtraditionalbunkerfuel,ranginginternationallybetween$10and$53pergigajoule(IEA,2023).Moreover,itwillneedtocatchupwithotherproviders,whoarefurtheradvancedonthelearningcurvefordevelopingtheirgreenhydrogenandgreenammoniasupplychains.Thegovernmentmustdrivearapidreductionofbothrenewablepowerandzero-emissionfuelgenerationcosts.Itmustalsodriveacceleratedin-countrylearning,technologyimprovements,andinnovationsthroughsupporttoresearch,development,anddemonstration(RD&D),anddeploymentofrenewable-poweredelectrolyzerstoproducezeroemissionfuels.Indonesiawillneedtoinvestinnewbunkeringinfrastructure,bunkeringvessels,andnewregulationsandgovernancesystems.Itmustalsoaddresschallengesintermsofashortageinskilledworkersandhumanresourcesalongthevaluechain.Todate,thereareover20hydrogenbunkeringinfrastructureprojectsandover10forammoniaworldwide(IEA,2022).Indonesianeedstoscaleupitslearninginthisarea.WhatcouldIndonesiadotoreapthebenefitsfromtheseattractivesynergies?Tomakethemostofthesesynergies,thegovernmentofIndonesiashould:▶Sendaclearsignalbycommittingtothedecarbonizationofshipping,updatingitsGlobalMaritimeFulcrumstrategy,andcomplementingitwitharoadmaptobecomeapreferredsupplierofalternative,zero-emissionbunkerfuel.DECARBONIZINGTHEMARITIMEINDUSTRY:ANOPPORTUNITYTOFURTHER6INDONESIA’SJUSTENERGYTRANSITION▶ExpanditsexistingJETPanditsmaritimediplomacytiestodevelopzero-emissionbunkerfuelinfrastructure.SincetheMinistryofMaritimeAffairsandInvestmentsisresponsibleforboththecoordinationoftheJETPandtheimplementationstrategyforIndonesia’sGlobalMaritimeFulcrum,theministryshouldtaketheleadandproactivelypushforgeneratingthesesynergies.▶Harnessdemandforzero-emissionbunkerfuelstosupportinvestmentsinthedecarbonizationofdomesticenergysystems.Policymakerscouldaimtocomplementthecountry’sJETPwithapartnershipfordecarbonizingshipping,andanincreaseinconcessionalandpublicfinance(i.e.,grants,loans)forRD&Dandpilotprojectsrelatedtozero-emissionshipping.▶Providefinancingsupportforintegratedrenewableandgreenammoniaproductiondemonstrationprojectsunderthecountry’sjustenergytransitionmechanismandsupportpublic-privatecollaborationonlarge-scalezero-emissiondemonstrationprojects.▶Leveragesynergiesandprepareconsistentjusttransitionframeworksfortheenergyandtheshippingindustryandpreparearoadmaptowardasustainablepathforthemaritimesectorentails.Thiswouldrequire,amongotherthings,strategiesforreskillingandupskillingstaffandunlockingwidersocialandresiliencebenefits.HowcanIndonesia’sinternationalpartnerscreateandsupportsynergiesforajustenergytransition?Indonesia’sinternationalJETPpartnersaresignatoriestotheClydebankDeclarationandsupportersofgreenshippingcorridors.Recognizingtheneedforcost-effectivenessandvalue-for-money,internationalpartnerscouldworktogetherwithIndonesiatoadvancethedecarbonizationoftheshippingsectorinparallelwiththecountry’sjustenergytransition.Potentialspecificsupportmeasuresincludethefollowing:▶IncentivizeinternationaltechnologyandinnovationcooperationwithIndonesianstate-ownedenterprisesandprivatesectorentitiestodevelopgreenhydrogenandgreenammoniasupply,andtoreduceelectrolysiscostsinIndonesia.▶Incentivizefirstmoversthroughconcessionalfundingandlong-termofftakeguaranteesforproducersofzero-emissionfuels.▶UsetheirinfluenceandconveningpowertoconnecttheJETPsforIndonesiaandVietnamwitheffortstodecarbonizeshipping;createanetworkofsuppliersbetweenthesetwocountries,andworkwithindustrystakeholderstoadvancethegreencorridors.www.cgdev.orgThisworkismadeavailableunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsAttribution-NonCommercial4.0license.ANNIKASEILERpolicyfellowattheCenterforGlobalDevelopmentonsecondmentfromtheAsianDevelopmentBank.Endnotes1TheIPGincludeG7countries,theEU,Denmark,andNorway.JapanandtheUnitedStatesarerepresentingtheIPGandleadinnegotiatingonbehalfoftheIPGwiththegovernmentofIndonesia,2“Green”hydrogenishydrogenproducedfromtheelectrolysisofwaterusingrenewableelectricity.“Green”ammoniaisproducedbycombining“green”hydrogenwithnitrogenfromtheatmosphereusinganestablishedandscalableprocesscalledtheHaber-Boschprocess.Whenpoweredbyrenewableelectricity,greenhydrogen,andgreenammoniadonotcreateanyGHGemissionsacrosstheirentirelifecycles,fromproductiontouse.3GreenshippingcorridorsareastrategypromotedbytheUnitedNationstoadvancethedecarbonizationoftheshippingindustry.Greenshippingcorridorsarespecificshippingrouteswherethetechnological,economic,andregulatoryfeasibilityoftheoperationofzero-emissionshipsiscatalyzedbyacombinationofpublicandprivateactions(GMF,2022).4TodecarbonizetheEastAsia-Europecontainerrouteby2050,progressby2030requiresatleastthedevelopmentof5GWofelectrolyzercapacitytodeliverzero-emissionbunkerfueltotheforecast50zero-emissionvesselsoperatingontheroutebythattime.Todate,only7%oftherequiredcapacityhavebeenannouncedtobeavailableby2030(GMF,2023).▶Facilitatelearningandexchangeofexperiences,partnerandprovidetechnicalassistanceforthedevelopmentandimplementationof(i)aninteroperable,transparent,andconsistentcertificationsystemforgreenhydrogenandgreenammonia,amust-haveifthecountryistoreapbenefitsfromthetrendtowardzero-emissionshipping;(ii)alternativefuelsafetyguidelines;and(iii)developmentofajusttransitionframeworkforIndonesia’sshippingindustry.▶Finally,internationalpartnerscouldprovideexpertiseinharmonizingtaxonomies,disclosure,andreportingstandardstofacilitatethegrowthofESGinvestingindecarbonizingthesector.ConclusionGlobally,thespeedandscaleofdecarbonizationofshippingdependsonanacceleratedandcost-efficientenergytransition.InIndonesia,theinverseisalsotrue.Demand-sideeffortscanacceleratethejustenergytransition.Bycouplingthetwoefforts,Indonesia,incooperationwithinternationalpartners,cantakeconcretestepstocatchthewaveofbunkerfuelmarkettransformationearlyandbenefitfromproductivitygainsandpositiveimpetusesforitssustainablegrowthandthecreationofdecentjobsintwosectorsofstrategicimportanceforthecountry.Thus,itcanalsoadvanceonmultipleSDGs,inadditiontoaddressingclimatechange.CouplingthetwoeffortswillallowprivatefinancialinstitutionsthatarepartoftheJETPtopotentiallydeploytheircapitalmorerapidly.

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