JobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomiesWHITEPAPERJANUARY2023IncollaborationwithAccentureContentsImages:GettyImages©2023WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.ForewordExecutivesummary1Identifyingthejobsoftomorrow2Quantifyingthejobsoftomorrow2.1Socialjobsunmetneedbyeconomyandsectorin20302.2Greenjobsunmetneedbyeconomyandsectorin20303MeetingtheneedforsocialandgreenjobsTechnicalappendixContributorsEndnotes345881420212324JobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies2ForewordInclusiveandsustainableeconomicgrowthisakeypolicytargetinbothadvancedandemergingeconomies,particularlyfollowingtheshockoftheCOVID-19pandemicandinresponsetothegrowingclimatecrisis.Jobsthatsupportmoresocialinclusionandgreaterenvironmentalsustainabilitywillbecriticaltorealizingsuchavisionforeconomicgrowthanddevelopment–aswillfindingthetalenttodeliverit.Attheheightofthepandemic,thevalueofsocial-sectorjobs–jobsthatsupportasociallyinclusiveeconomy–suchasteachers,caregiversandhealthcareworkersreceiveddeservedattention.Itisevidentthattheserolesarecrucialtobuildinginclusion,theefficientfunctioningofoursocietiesandembeddingsocialmobilityandresilience.Theywillfurtherriseinimportanceasdevelopedanddevelopingeconomiesalikenavigatebothgrowingandageingpopulationsandaspolicy-makerslooktostrengthensocialinfrastructure.Inparallel,thereisrisingpressuretoshifttowardsgreenereconomiesduetotheclimatecrisisandasincreasedgeopoliticaltensionsincentivizecountriestoseekgreaterenergyindependenceinthemediumtolongerterm.“Green”jobs–rolesthatsupportgreenereconomies,suchasenvironmentalengineersandtownplanners–arethereforealsorisinginimportanceanddemand.ThiswhitepapercontinuesourJobsofTomorrowseriesandseekstoquantifytheneedforsocialandgreenjobsin10countriesby2030inordertomeetinclusionandclimatetargets.Itisacalltoactionforgovernmentsandbusinessestoprioritizeinvestmentinthesejobs,thesystemsthatensureworkersreceivefairwagesandtheskillstothriveintheseroles.WearedeeplygratefultotheCentrefortheNewEconomyandSocietypartnersandconstituentsfortheirleadershipofthejobsagendaaswellasforthepartnershipoftheAccentureteam,whosemembersservedascorecollaboratorsonthisreport.TheinsightsfromthispaperwillserveasakeytoolfortheJobsConsortium,1aglobalcoalitionofministersandCEOsthatpromotesabetterfutureofworkthroughjobcreationandjobtransitions,aswellasforjobsaccelerators,country-levelpublic–privatecollaborationplatforms.SaadiaZahidi,ManagingDirector,WorldEconomicForumJobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomiesJanuary2023ChristieSmithGlobalLead,TalentandOrganization,AccentureJobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies3ExecutivesummaryTheworldcurrentlyfacesdifficultiessecuringhumancapital,enablingsocialmobilityandenhancingsocietalresilience–issuesthatarelikelytoincreasewithagrowingandageingglobalpopulation.Meanwhile,theclimatecrisisandgeopoliticaltensionsareacceleratingtheshifttowardsgreenereconomiesandgreaterenergyindependence.Providingasociallyinclusiveandenvironmentallysustainableeconomyisakeypolicygoalformanycountries.Thiswhitepaperexplorestherolesocialandgreenjobscanplayinaddressingthesetwinchallenges.Specifically,itseekstoquantifytheneedforsocialandgreenjobsin10countriesby2030tomeetinclusionandenvironmentalambitions.Socialjobs,definedaskeyoccupationswithinthreefoundationalsocialinstitutions–education,healthcareandcare–arecrucialforbuildinginclusionandenhancingsocialmobility.Greenjobs,definedasrolesthatrequirespecific“greenskills”toperformthem,arecrucialforenablingatransitiontoamoresustainableeconomy.Socialjobsrepresent11%ofthetotalworkforceinthe10countries.Tomeetinclusionandsocialmobilitygoals,thesecountrieswillneed64millionmoresocialjobs–anincreaseof37%.Keyfindingsbysector,occupationandcountryinclude:–Unmetneedisgreatestinthehealthcaresector,whichrequiresanadditional33millionjobs.However,theeducation(21million)andcare(10million)sectorsalsohavesignificantunmetneed.–Occupationswiththegreatestunmetneedarepersonalcareworkersinhealthservices(18million),childcareworkers,teacheraidesandearlychildhoodteachers(12million)andprimaryandsecondaryeducationteachers(9million).–Atthecountrylevel,SouthAfrica’sunmetneedisthegreatest–requiringseveraltimesmoresocialjobsthanitcurrentlyhas.BrazilandSpainhavethenextgreatestunmetneed,withincreasesof80–90%required.Thegreenworkforceismuchsmaller,representingjust1%oftotalemploymentinthe10countries.Tomeetenvironmentalobjectives,thesecountriesrequireover12million,or66%,moregreenjobs.Keyfindingsbysector,occupationandcountryinclude:–Theagriculturalandforestrysectorhasthegreatestunmetneed(11million),whiletheinfrastructure(480,000),government(160,000)andenergy(50,000)sectorsalsohavesignificantunmetneed.–Althoughagricultural,forestryandfisheryworkersformtheoccupationwiththegreatestunmetneed,environmentalconstructionroles(80,000)andenvironmental,civilandchemicalengineers(70,000)alsohavesignificantunmetneed.–SouthAfrica,China,theUnitedKingdomandBrazilhavethegreatestunmetneedforgreenjobs;however,allcountrieswillneedtoincreasetheirgreenworkforcetomeetenvironmentalobjectives.Byquantifyingtheunmetneedforsocialandgreenjobs,thiswhitepaperservesasacalltoactionforgovernmentandbusinessleadersaroundtheworld.Tocreatesociallyinclusiveandenvironmentallysustainablesocieties,leadersneedtofacilitategreaterjob-creationinvestmentsthatwouldfilltheunmetneedforsocialandgreenjobs.Thisrequiresamultistakeholderapproachinwhichbusinesses,governmentsandunionsarealignedonanewvisionforabetterfutureofworkthatisbuiltonlabourmarketforesight,focusesongoodjobcreation,andsupportsfairwagesanddynamicjobtransitions.JobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies4Identifyingthejobsoftomorrow1Knowingwheretherewillbeunmetneedforsocialandgreenjobsby2030willhelpaddresssocialandenvironmentalchallenges.AttheheightoftheCOVID-19pandemic,muchoftheworld’sattentionturnedtothevalueofpeopleinsocialjobssuchasteachers,caregiversandhealthcareworkers.Socialjobsarecrucialforsecuringhumancapital,2enablingsocialmobilityandenhancingsocietalresilience,andtheirimportancewillincreasewithagrowingandageingglobalpopulation.Inparallel,theclimatecrisisismakingthegreeneconomytransitionevermoreurgent,alongsidegeopoliticaltensionsthatarereinforcingtheneedtomovetowardsmoresustainableenergysources.Socialandgreenjobscanhelpcountriesimprovesocietalresilienceandaddressemissions-reductiontargets.However,thereiscurrentlyagapbetweenthesocialandgreenjobsinmosteconomiestodayandthenumberofsocialandgreenjobsthatcouldhelpcountriesachieveinclusionandemissions-reductionaspirationsin2030.Thisgapisreferredtoas“unmetneed”.Thisreportaimstoidentifythisunmetneedforsocialandgreenjobsin2030in10countries.Bycalculatingtheneed,itishopedthatbusinessesandgovernmentswillbegiventhesupporttomakeinvestmentdecisionsthatwillensurethelabourforceispreparedtodeliverthedesiredsocialandenvironmentaloutcomes.ThereportbuildsontheWorldEconomicForum’sJobsofTomorrow:TheTripleReturnsofSocialJobsintheEconomicRecovery.3ThatreporthighlightedhowinvestinginsocialsectorsintheUnitedStateswouldyieldincreasesinjobs,grossdomesticproduct(GDP)andsocialoutcomes.Thispaperextendstheanalysisbycalculatingtheunmetneedforbothsocialandgreenjobsandexpandingitgeographicallyto10majoreconomies:Australia,Brazil,China,Germany,India,Japan,SouthAfrica,Spain,theUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates.JobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies5Threefoundationalsocialinstitutions–education,healthcareandcare–formthekeybuildingblocksthatenablepeopletocreatehumancapital,participateinsocietyandgenerateeconomicprogress.These,inturn,generatesocioeconomicmobility,allowingpeopletoenhancetheireconomicoutcomeswithintheirlifetimeandacrossgenerations,asnotedintheWorldEconomicForum’sGlobalSocialMobilityIndex.4Asdemographicstransformgloballyandtheworld’spopulationagesandgrows,ensuringadequatesocialinfrastructurewillrequireexpandededucation,healthcareandcaresystems.Socialjobsarethusdefinedasthekeyoccupationswithinthesethreefoundationalsocialsectors.SocialjobsarecrucialforsecuringhumancapitalandenablinginclusiveeconomicgrowthInthe10countriesstudied,theserolescurrentlyemploy11%oftheworkforce.However,therearewell-documentedshortfallsinthetalentrequiredintheeducation,healthcareandcaresectors.Forexample,UNESCOhasprojectedashortfallof20millionteacherstoachieveSustainableDevelopmentGoal4,QualityEducation,5andtheWorldHealthOrganizationexpectsaglobalshortfallof15millionhealthworkersby2030.6Inaddition,despitewell-establishedconnectionsbetweeninvestmentincareandbettersocial,economicandlabour-marketoutcomes,caresystemshaveenduredlongstandingneglect.7Moreover,rolesinthesesectorstendtobeundervaluedandunderpaid,inmanycaseslackprofessionalcertificationsandinsomecaseslackformalization,reducingopportunitiesforworkersintheserolesandreducingtheirattractivenessdespitetheirvaluetosociety.Toquantifytheunmetneed,thisreportaimstodeterminethenumberofsocialjobsthatwouldhelpcountriesimprovetheirsocialmobilitylevelsby2030toreachthesamedegreeofsocialmobilityperformanceasasetofbenchmarkcountriesthathavehigh-performingeducation,healthcareandcareinstitutions.Thereportthencalculateshowmanyadditionalsocialjobseachcountrywouldneedtomatchthedensityofsocialjobsinthebenchmarkcountries.Forthisanalysis,Denmark,Norway,FinlandandSwedenarethebenchmarkcountries.TheseeconomiesarethetopfourrankedcountriesontheWorldEconomicForum’sGlobalSocialMobilityIndex.Socialjobsdensityiscalculatedrelativetotherelevantpopulation,e.g.teachersper1,000childrenornursesper1,000people.Inaddition,thetotalgrowthneededinthenumberofsocialjobshasbeenlimitedtorecognizecountryconstraintsbyfactoringinbothprojectedemploymentandworkingagepopulationin2030.UNESCOhasprojectedashortfallof20millionteacherstoachieveSustainableDevelopmentGoal4,QualityEducation,andtheWorldHealthOrganizationexpectsaglobalshortfallof15millionhealthworkersby2030.Thesocialjobsanalysedinthisreportincludethefollowing:PersonalcareworkersinhealthservicesOtherteachingprofessionalsChildcareworkers,teachers’aidesandearlychildhoodteachersUniversityandhighereducationteachersPrimaryandsecondaryeducationteachersProfessionalservicesmanagersNursingandmidwiferyprofessionalsandassociatesMedicaldoctorsOtherhealthprofessionalsandassociatesMedicalandpharmaceuticaltechniciansSocialworkandcounsellingprofessionalsandassociatesVocationaleducationteachersJobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies6Thegreenjobsanalysedinthisreportincludethefollowing:Agricultural,forestryandfisheryworkersandlabourersEnvironmentalprotectionprofessionalsForestryandagriculturalprofessionalsandadvisers,andlifesciencetechniciansTownandtrafficplannersProductionmanagersinagriculture,forestryandfisheriesEnvironmentalgovernmentregulatoryassociateprofessionalsRefuseworkersMiners,quarriersandminingmanagersEnvironmentalbuildingframeandrelatedtradesworkersPhysicalandearthscienceprofessionalsEnvironmental,civilandchemicalengineersLandscapearchitectsGreenjobsarecrucialforaneconomictransitionthatenablesenvironmentalsustainabilityTomeetthegoalsoftheParisAgreement–apledgetokeepglobaltemperaturerisesbelow2ºCandpursueeffortstolimitto1.5ºC8–alabourforcewithgreenskillswillbeessential.Thisreportappliesaskills-baseddefinitionofgreenjobs.Thismeansjobsthatrequirespecificgreenskillstobedonesuccessfullyaredefinedasgreenjobs,usingtheLightcastdatabaseofjobpostings9andskillslibrary10toidentifythosejobsthatrequiregreenskills.Someexamplesincludeskillsrelatedtoenvironmentandresourcemanagement,ecologyandcleanenergy.ThelistofgreenjobsbelowrepresentsoccupationswiththelargestproportionofpositionsrequiringspecificgreenskillsandincludesbespokeaggregationsandexclusionsfromtheInternationalStandardClassificationofOccupations’UnitGroups.Inthe10countriesstudied,theserolestodayemploy1%oftheworkforce.Ifclimatetargetsaretobemet,therewillneedtobeanincreaseintheseroles.Thenumberofworkerswithgreenskillshasbeenincreasing,withanalmost40%increaseingreentalentbetween2015and2021.11However,greenandgreeningjobscontinuetomakeuponlyabout10%ofjobpostingsonLinkedIn.Ascountriesrollouttheirclimatepledges,itisessentialthatthelabourforcecanimplementtheactionsassociatedwiththesepledgesthroughafacilitatedtransitiontowardsgreenjobs.Thisreportaimstodeterminethenumberofgreenjobsthatcouldhelpcountriesreducetheircarbonemissionsby2030.Itdoessobycalculatinghowmanyadditionalgreenjobseachcountrywouldneedtomatchthedensityofgreenjobsinasetofbenchmarkcountriesthatareperformingwellontheirenergytransition.Forthisanalysis,Sweden,NorwayandDenmarkarethebenchmarkcountries.TheseeconomiesarethetopthreerankedcountriesontheWorldEconomicForum’sEnergyTransitionIndex.12Inthiscase,densityreferstotheproportionofgreenjobswithinasectorandoccupation;e.g.thenumberofengineeringjobsrequiringgreenskillsper1,000peopleemployedinthetransportsector.Thetablesinthefollowingsectionsetout:thecurrentnumberofsocialandgreenjobsbycountry;howmanyoftheseroleseachcountryisexpectedtorequireby2030tomeetsocialmobilityandenergytransitionaspirations;andtheresultingunmetneedforeachrole.JobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies7Quantifyingthejobsoftomorrow2Thegreatestunmetneedbyeconomy.Socialjobsunmetneedbyeconomyandsectorin20302.1Australia13TABLE1Employment(in000s)CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredPersonalcareworkersinhealthservices220508288131%Childcareworkers,teachers’aidesandearlychildhoodteachers21338216980%Nursingandmidwiferyprofessionalsandassociates3784476818%Primaryandsecondaryeducationteachers417455379%Socialworkandcounsellingprofessionalsandassociates2152422713%Otherteachingprofessionals1461651913%Medicalandpharmaceuticaltechnicians46611533%Otherhealthprofessionalsandassociates342356144%Universityandhighereducationteachers9710699%Professionalservicesmanagers10110544%Medicaldoctors120120–0%Vocationaleducationteachers2424–0%Total2,3192,97165028%JobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies8BrazilChinaTABLE2TABLE3Employment(in000s)CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredPersonalcareworkersinhealthservices7403,3012,561346%Childcareworkers,teachers’aidesandearlychildhoodteachers1,6813,3881,707102%Nursingandmidwiferyprofessionalsandassociates1,5212,6741,15376%Primaryandsecondaryeducationteachers2,1113,2581,14654%Socialworkandcounsellingprofessionalsandassociates4771,059582122%Otherhealthprofessionalsandassociates1,5752,07149631%Universityandhighereducationteachers271646375139%Otherteachingprofessionals7721,08531341%Professionalservicesmanagers193480287149%Medicaldoctors52870918134%Medicalandpharmaceuticaltechnicians21838216375%Vocationaleducationteachers12722910280%Total10,21419,2829,06689%Employment(in000s)CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredPersonalcareworkersinhealthservices3,8058,8075,002131%Nursingandmidwiferyprofessionalsandassociates4,7447,2902,54654%Primaryandsecondaryeducationteachers6,9559,0152,05930%Childcareworkers,teachers’aidesandearlychildhoodteachers15,60716,5048976%Otherhealthprofessionalsandassociates4,7275,57384618%Professionalservicesmanagers6491,12147373%Medicaldoctors1,9102,38147125%Otherteachingprofessionals8,1238,5304085%Universityandhighereducationteachers2,3592,74138216%Medicalandpharmaceuticaltechnicians8771,20032337%Socialworkandcounsellingprofessionalsandassociates12,58212,8752942%Vocationaleducationteachers6,8777,0561793%Total69,21583,09313,88020%JobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies9GermanyIndiaTABLE4TABLE5Employment(in000s)CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredPersonalcareworkersinhealthservices4761,7001,223257%Nursingandmidwiferyprofessionalsandassociates1,4441,83639227%Childcareworkers,teachers’aidesandearlychildhoodteachers9351,19025527%Primaryandsecondaryeducationteachers1,0281,13110310%Professionalservicesmanagers981808284%Otherhealthprofessionalsandassociates1,2521,319675%Vocationaleducationteachers520558387%Otherteachingprofessionals731763324%Medicalandpharmaceuticaltechnicians1752073218%Socialworkandcounsellingprofessionalsandassociates2,2292,251221%Medicaldoctors39339410%Universityandhighereducationteachers302302–0%Total9,58311,8312,24723%Employment(in000s)CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredPersonalcareworkersinhealthservices2,3846,8094,425186%Primaryandsecondaryeducationteachers11,63514,9463,31128%Otherhealthprofessionalsandassociates3,9015,0151,11429%Nursingandmidwiferyprofessionalsandassociates4,8527,8783,02562%Otherteachingprofessionals3,4094,4451,03630%Childcareworkers,teachers’aidesandearlychildhoodteachers5,01610,2135,197104%Socialworkandcounsellingprofessionalsandassociates2,3353,5361,20151%Universityandhighereducationteachers1,7642,62085649%Medicaldoctors1,3822,01062845%Professionalservicesmanagers6681,349682102%Medicalandpharmaceuticaltechnicians8181,20538647%Vocationaleducationteachers27348921579%Total38,43760,51522,07657%JobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies10JapanSouthAfricaTABLE6TABLE7Employment(in000s)CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredPersonalcareworkersinhealthservices2,0902,64855827%Childcareworkers,teachers’aidesandearlychildhoodteachers142439297210%Nursingandmidwiferyprofessionalsandassociates1,3971,53313610%Otherhealthprofessionalsandassociates75085410314%Primaryandsecondaryeducationteachers9581,049919%Socialworkandcounsellingprofessionalsandassociates1,0901,144545%Professionalservicesmanagers1682104225%Otherteachingprofessionals540580407%Medicaldoctors2833213813%Universityandhighereducationteachers1902273720%Vocationaleducationteachers225128125%Medicalandpharmaceuticaltechnicians265278135%Total7,8959,3341,43718%Employment(in000s)CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredChildcareworkers,teachers’aidesandearlychildhoodteachers1451,7831,6391,131%Primaryandsecondaryeducationteachers3811,8051,424374%Nursingandmidwiferyprofessionalsandassociates193712519268%Otherteachingprofessionals58393335574%Universityandhighereducationteachers39329289735%Socialworkandcounsellingprofessionalsandassociates29305276945%Otherhealthprofessionalsandassociates27053426598%Personalcareworkersinhealthservices60291231387%Medicaldoctors6315995151%Medicalandpharmaceuticaltechnicians163922140%Professionalservicesmanagers–––0%Vocationaleducationteachers–––0%Total1,2546,3505,095406%11JobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenEmploymenttoEnableInclusiveandSustainableEconomiesby2030SpainUnitedKingdomTABLE8TABLE9Employment(in000s)CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredPersonalcareworkersinhealthservices5641,484920163%Childcareworkers,teachers’aidesandearlychildhoodteachers234685450192%Socialworkandcounsellingprofessionalsandassociates203443240118%Nursingandmidwiferyprofessionalsandassociates29853623880%Otherhealthprofessionalsandassociates27146519471%Professionalservicesmanagers44145101230%Otherteachingprofessionals2282997131%Vocationaleducationteachers5410955103%Medicalandpharmaceuticaltechnicians941444952%Universityandhighereducationteachers1281653829%Primaryandsecondaryeducationteachers599630325%Medicaldoctors24625594%Total2,9635,3602,39781%Employment(in000s)CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredPersonalcareworkersinhealthservices1,3121,91460246%Childcareworkers,teachers’aidesandearlychildhoodteachers7961,14634944%Primaryandsecondaryeducationteachers7671,01224532%Nursingandmidwiferyprofessionalsandassociates57971313423%Otherteachingprofessionals4585135412%Universityandhighereducationteachers2182523516%Otherhealthprofessionalsandassociates511533224%Professionalservicesmanagers25526273%Medicaldoctors31932562%Socialworkandcounsellingprofessionalsandassociates61161420%Medicalandpharmaceuticaltechnicians141141–0%Vocationaleducationteachers7676–0%Total6,0437,5011,45624%12JobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenEmploymenttoEnableInclusiveandSustainableEconomiesby2030UnitedStatesTABLE10Employment(in000s)CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredPersonalcareworkersinhealthservices5,0456,8771,83236%Childcareworkers,teachers’aidesandearlychildhoodteachers2,2553,7681,51467%Primaryandsecondaryeducationteachers2,9483,87092231%Nursingandmidwiferyprofessionalsandassociates3,9334,55762316%Socialworkandcounsellingprofessionalsandassociates1,8512,16831717%Medicaldoctors282599317112%Otherteachingprofessionals1,9972,1571618%Otherhealthprofessionalsandassociates4,1114,2421313%Professionalservicesmanagers1,2351,328937%Universityandhighereducationteachers1,3951,429352%Medicalandpharmaceuticaltechnicians1,1201,145252%Vocationaleducationteachers178178–0%Total26,35032,3185,97023%5101520253035HealthcareEducationCare021.3million9.8million33.1millionAggregateunmetneedforsocialjobsbysectorForall10studiedcountriesFIGURE1Source:WorldEconomicForumJobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies13Greenjobsunmetneedbyeconomyandsectorin20302.2AustraliaTABLE11CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredAgricultural,forestryandfisheryworkersandlabourers3,4007,7004,300127%Productionmanagersinagriculture,forestryandfisheries4,1005,9001,80044%Environmentalgovernmentregulatoryassociateprofessionals2,8004,3001,50052%Miners,quarriersandminingmanagers2,0003,1001,10057%Forestryandagriculturalprofessionalsandadvisers,andlifesciencetechnicians10,80011,6008008%Refuseworkers2,3002,70040019%Environmental,civilandchemicalengineers7,1007,3002003%Environmentalprotectionprofessionals7,0007,2002003%Physicalandearthscienceprofessionals2,3002,5002008%Environmentalbuildingframeandrelatedtradesworkers1,7001,8001008%Landscapearchitects2,7002,8001003%Townandtrafficplanners5,1005,100–1%Total51,20062,00010,80021%Thefiguresinthetablesbelowrefertothenumberofgreenjobs–thoserequiringspecificgreenskills–withineachoccupation.BrazilTABLE12CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredAgricultural,forestryandfisheryworkersandlabourers210,500486,300275,800131%Productionmanagersinagriculture,forestryandfisheries11,60024,40012,900111%Forestryandagriculturalprofessionalsandadvisers,andlifesciencetechnicians18,00025,2007,30041%Refuseworkers66,00072,2006,2009%Environmental,civilandchemicalengineers71,30077,4006,1009%Environmentalbuildingframeandrelatedtradesworkers41,70045,9004,20010%Environmentalprotectionprofessionals15,30015,6004002%Physicalandearthscienceprofessionals2,7003,10040014%Townandtrafficplanners1,4001,500–1%Landscapearchitects–––0%Environmentalgovernmentregulatoryassociateprofessionals2,8002,800–0%Miners,quarriersandminingmanagers1,3001,300–1%Total442,500755,700313,20071%JobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies14ChinaTABLE13CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredAgricultural,forestryandfisheryworkersandlabourers12,196,80021,764,1009,567,30078%Refuseworkers296,100407,600111,50038%Forestryandagriculturalprofessionalsandadvisers,andlifesciencetechnicians138,900224,20085,30061%Environmental,civilandchemicalengineers467,900490,50022,6005%Environmentalbuildingframeandrelatedtradesworkers63,90082,90019,10030%Productionmanagersinagriculture,forestryandfisheries9,90019,8009,900100%Physicalandearthscienceprofessionals66,70070,9004,2006%Miners,quarriersandminingmanagers14,60017,1002,50017%Environmentalgovernmentregulatoryassociateprofessionals27,70029,9002,2008%Landscapearchitects8,90010,7001,80020%Environmentalprotectionprofessionals59,90060,6007001%Townandtrafficplanners19,50020,2007003%Total13,370,90023,198,5009,827,60074%GermanyTABLE14CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredAgricultural,forestryandfisheryworkersandlabourers90014,50013,6001,598%Environmental,civilandchemicalengineers43,10055,60012,60029%Forestryandagriculturalprofessionalsandadvisers,andlifesciencetechnicians29,00036,7007,80027%Landscapearchitects9,90012,3002,40025%Environmentalgovernmentregulatoryassociateprofessionals33,90035,2001,3004%Refuseworkers7,8007,9002002%Environmentalprotectionprofessionals2,4002,400–0%Physicalandearthscienceprofessionals–100–36%Environmentalbuildingframeandrelatedtradesworkers15,60015,600–0%Townandtrafficplanners–––0%Productionmanagersinagriculture,forestryandfisheries–––0%Miners,quarriersandminingmanagers–––0%Total142,400180,30037,90027%JobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies15IndiaTABLE15CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredAgricultural,forestryandfisheryworkersandlabourers2,562,4003,887,9001,325,50052%Forestryandagriculturalprofessionalsandadvisers,andlifesciencetechnicians107,300281,100173,700162%Productionmanagersinagriculture,forestryandfisheries159,900268,900108,90068%Environmentalbuildingframeandrelatedtradesworkers125,700141,40015,70012%Refuseworkers38,10049,80011,80031%Environmental,civilandchemicalengineers149,700159,70010,0007%Environmentalprotectionprofessionals132,500137,6005,1004%Miners,quarriersandminingmanagers232,200235,5003,3001%Environmentalgovernmentregulatoryassociateprofessionals40,40042,7002,3006%Landscapearchitects6,3007,6001,40022%Townandtrafficplanners15,10016,3001,2008%Physicalandearthscienceprofessionals9,70010,3007007%Total3,579,3005,238,8001,659,50046%JapanTABLE16CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredRefuseworkers9,70023,90014,200147%Environmentalbuildingframeandrelatedtradesworkers23,90035,10011,20047%Environmental,civilandchemicalengineers58,80062,1003,3006%Agricultural,forestryandfisheryworkersandlabourers7,4009,2001,80025%Forestryandagriculturalprofessionalsandadvisers,andlifesciencetechnicians14,00015,5001,50011%Productionmanagersinagriculture,forestryandfisheries12,80013,8001,1008%Townandtrafficplanners11,20012,0008007%Physicalandearthscienceprofessionals4,2004,70060013%Miners,quarriersandminingmanagers2,7003,40060024%Environmentalprotectionprofessionals7,8008,1003003%Landscapearchitects6,0006,1001001%Environmentalgovernmentregulatoryassociateprofessionals200200–3%Total158,700194,10035,40022%JobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies16SouthAfricaTABLE17CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredAgricultural,forestryandfisheryworkersandlabourers13,200126,900113,700862%Environmentalbuildingframeandrelatedtradesworkers–14,50014,50085,471%Productionmanagersinagriculture,forestryandfisheries30012,30012,1004,335%Refuseworkers2,20011,1008,900404%Environmental,civilandchemicalengineers1,0004,9003,800364%Townandtrafficplanners1,1004,9003,800349%Forestryandagriculturalprofessionalsandadvisers,andlifesciencetechnicians4,4006,8002,50057%Miners,quarriersandminingmanagers3,4003,5001004%Environmentalprotectionprofessionals–––0%Physicalandearthscienceprofessionals–––0%Landscapearchitects–––0%Environmentalgovernmentregulatoryassociateprofessionals300300–6%Total25,800185,300159,500617%SpainTABLE18CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredAgricultural,forestryandfisheryworkersandlabourers18,50045,00026,500143%Environmentalbuildingframeandrelatedtradesworkers23,70030,7007,00029%Forestryandagriculturalprofessionalsandadvisers,andlifesciencetechnicians13,00016,3003,30025%Productionmanagersinagriculture,forestryandfisheries2,9006,0003,100106%Landscapearchitects8,6009,6001,00011%Physicalandearthscienceprofessionals1,6002,00050029%Refuseworkers15,70016,1004002%Environmental,civilandchemicalengineers13,70014,1003002%Environmentalprotectionprofessionals10,70011,1003003%Miners,quarriersandminingmanagers2,7002,9002008%Townandtrafficplanners40050010023%Environmentalgovernmentregulatoryassociateprofessionals–––0%Total111,700154,30042,60038%JobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies17UnitedKingdomTABLE19CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredEnvironmentalprotectionprofessionals15,40032,70017,300113%Environmental,civilandchemicalengineers3,00014,20011,300380%Agricultural,forestryandfisheryworkersandlabourers1,40012,40011,000789%Productionmanagersinagriculture,forestryandfisheries3,70010,8007,100190%Townandtrafficplanners2,2007,2005,000224%Environmentalgovernmentregulatoryassociateprofessionals14,00016,6002,50018%Forestryandagriculturalprofessionalsandadvisers,andlifesciencetechnicians9003,2002,300244%Physicalandearthscienceprofessionals2,6004,3001,80068%Miners,quarriersandminingmanagers6001,400800134%Refuseworkers26,30026,6003001%Environmentalbuildingframeandrelatedtradesworkers13,30013,300–0%Landscapearchitects–––0%Total83,400142,80059,40071%UnitedStatesTABLE20CurrentemploymentEmploymentneededby2030Unmetneed%changerequiredEnvironmentalbuildingframeandrelatedtradesworkers24,30031,2006,80028%Agricultural,forestryandfisheryworkersandlabourers16,30021,5005,20032%Forestryandagriculturalprofessionalsandadvisers,andlifesciencetechnicians54,60055,9001,3002%Miners,quarriersandminingmanagers3,3004,20090026%Environmental,civilandchemicalengineers106,000106,5006001%Environmentalprotectionprofessionals67,20067,8006001%Productionmanagersinagriculture,forestryandfisheries1,0001,60060056%Physicalandearthscienceprofessionals19,80020,3005003%Refuseworkers38,70038,9003001%Townandtrafficplanners11,80011,9001001%Environmentalgovernmentregulatoryassociateprofessionals40050010014%Landscapearchitects2,7002,700–1%Total346,100363,10017,0005%JobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies18100,000200,000300,000400,000500,00011million0Agricultureandforestry11millionInfrastructure483,000Governmentandpublicsector157,000Energy51,000Professionalservices29,000Retailandwholesaleconsumergoods25,000Education21,000UnmetneedforgreenjobsinselectedsectorsFIGURE2Source:WorldEconomicForumJobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies19Meetingtheneedforsocialandgreenjobs3Eachofthe10countriescoveredinthisreportneedsasignificantboostinthenumbersofsocialandgreenjobs.Doingsowilleffectivelyaddressashifttowardsgreatersocialmobilityandenableanenergytransition.Inequalityandsustainabilityareimportantissuesforpolicy-makers,businessleadersandpopulationsglobally.Thisprovidesanimpetusforadequateandtargetedinvestmentstoexpandthesocialandgreensectorsandassociatedjobs,supportedbypublicandprivatere-employmentpoliciesandjob-transitionsupport.Inaddition,suchpolicieswillneedtobeaccompaniedbytraining,upskillingandreskillinginitiativesaswellasinnovativesocial-protectionmeasurestosecurelivelihoods.Byquantifyingtheunmetneed,thisreportaimstoserveasacalltoactionforbusinessesandgovernmentstoinvestinsocial-sectorjobcreationandtraining,alongsidegreeningallsectors,investingingreen-skillsdevelopmentandhelpingprepareindustriesandtheworkforceforthedemandsandjobsoftomorrow.JobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies20TechnicalappendixThisreportintroducesaninnovativecalculationof“unmetneed”,definedasthegapbetweenthesocialandgreenjobsinmosteconomiestodayandthenumberofsocialandgreenjobsthatcouldhelpcountriesachieveinclusionandemissionsreductionaspirationsin2030.Themodelcomparescurrentbaselineemploymentin10countriesofanalysis(Australia,Brazil,China,Germany,India,Japan,SouthAfrica,Spain,UnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates)withthatofselectedbenchmarkeconomiesthatarethetopperformersintermsofsocialmobilityandenergytransition.Itthuscalculatestherelevantcurrentandtargetratiosofsocialjobs(overthenumberofservedpopulation)andgreenjobs(overtotalemployment,byindustry)andusesthemtodeterminetheneededemploymentofall10countriesby2030,takingintoconsiderationexpecteddemographicshifts.Countryconstraintsarethenappliedtoreflecttheavailablesupplyoflabourandcalculatethefinal“unmetneed”.Denmark,NorwayandSwedenhavebeenselectedasthebenchmarkeconomiestoestimateunmetneedingreenjobs,astheytoptherankingoftheWorldEconomicForumEnergyTransitionIndex2021.ThesamethreecountriestogetherwithFinlandwereusedasbenchmarkstoestimateunmetneedinsocialjobs,asthesefourrankedtopintheWorldEconomicForumGlobalSocialMobilityIndex2020.EstimatingunmetneedforsocialjobsAssessingbaselineemploymentSocialjobsaredefinedasthekeyoccupationswithinthreefoundationalsocialinstitutions–education,healthcareandcare.Dataforthe10countriesofanalysisandfourbenchmarkeconomieswassourcedfromnationalstatisticalofficesandconvertedintoUnitedNationsInternationalStandardIndustrialClassificationandInternationalStandardClassificationofOccupations(ISIC-ISCO).ToovercomethelackofpubliclyavailabledatainChinaandIndia,four-digitISCOoccupationdatawasestimatedusingthelatestavailableemploymentdatabyindustryandaggregatedgroupsofoccupationsfromnationalstatisticalofficesandtheInternationalLabourOrganization(ILO).IdentifyingtargetratiosInthecaseofsocialjobs,targetdensityratiosarecalculatedforallbenchmarkeconomiesforeachsocialoccupation,dividingthenumberofpeopleemployedineachoccupationbythepopulationbeingservedandtakingaweightedaverageacrossthecountries.EstimatingoverallunmetneedForthe10studycountries,UNpopulationprojectionswereusedtoforecastdensityratiosin2030,accountingforshiftsinthepopulationbeingservedbyeachsocialoccupation.Forallsocialoccupationsineachofthe10countries,thedifferencebetweentargetandforecasteddensityratioswasmultipliedbytheunderlyingservedpopulationtodeterminethenumberofprofessionalsindeficit.Incaseswhereforecasteddensityratioswerehigherthanthetargetdensityratios,theseprofessionswereconsiderednottohaveanyunmetneed.JobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies21EstimatingunmetneedforgreenjobsAssessingbaselineemploymentIdentifyinggreenjobsthroughintensityofgreenskillsrequiredattheoccupationlevelThisreportdefinesgreenjobsasoccupationsrequiringspecificgreenskills.UsingLightcast’sSkillsLibrary,whichconsistsofapproximately30,000uniqueskillsrequirementsacrossjobpostings,390wereidentifiedasgreenskills,representingrequiredexpertiseortalentimportanttoenablingenvironmentalsustainability.Thesegreenskillslargelyfallunderthefollowingcategories:sustainablefarming,greenarchitectureandbuilding,environmentalpolicyandanalysis,cleanenergy,energyefficiency,climatechange,natureconservation,ecologyandresourcemanagement.LightcastjobpostingsdataavailablefortheUnitedStatesoverthepast12yearswasusedtoassessthepercentageofroleswithgreenskillsbystandardoccupationandindustry.RoleswereconvertedtoISCOandISICclassificationfromUSStandardOccupationalClassification(SOC)andNorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem(NAICS)classifications.Bespokeaggregationsandexclusionswereappliedtobettercommunicategreenoccupations,withoccupationsthathavethehighestproportionofgreenjobsfeaturedinthereport.EstimatingbaselinegreenemploymentbycountryandindustryBaselinegreenemploymentfortheremainingcountriesinthesamplewasestimatedassumingaconstantrelationshipbetweenthegreenperformanceofindustriesbycountry(CO2emissionsperunitofvalue-add–obtainedfromOxfordEconomics)andtheirshareofgreenemployment.Thismeansthatindustrieswithmoregreenjobsareexpectedtohavebettergreenperformance.Aseriesofelasticitycoefficientsbetweeneachindustry’sshareofgreenjobsanditsperformance(i.e.CO2emissionsperunitofvalue-add)wascreatedusingUSdataontotalemployment,shareofgreenjobsandCO2emissionsbyindustry.Thedistributionofcountryoccupationalprofiles(sourcedfromnationalstatisticaloffices)wasusedtoestimatebaselinegreenemploymentbyoccupationandindustryfortheremainingninecountriesintheanalysisaswellasforthethreebenchmarkcountries(Denmark,NorwayandSweden).IdentifyingtargetratiosTheestimatedgreenemploymentlevelsinthesebenchmarkcountrieswereusedtocalculatethetargetratiosofgreenemploymentper1,000employeesineachindustry.EstimatingoverallneedThesetargetratioswerecomparedwiththecurrentratioofgreenemploymentper1,000employeesineachindustryandeachcountryofanalysistoextrapolatetheunmetneedforgreenjobs.Applyingcountry-levellabourmarketconstraintsTheunmetneedforsocialjobsineachcountrywascapped,whererelevant,byapplyingacountryconstraintthatconsistsofpeopleavailabletofulfiltheserolesin2030.The2030employmentforecastsfromOxfordEconomicswereusedtoassessthatnumber.Giventhesizeofunmetneedforgreenjobs,noconstraintswereapplied.Theworkforceneededtofulfilgreenjobswasdeductedfromtheavailablelaboursupplyandanadjustmentfactorwasappliedtosocialjobsbasedontheremainingprojectedunemploymentpopulationin2030.JobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies22ContributorsWorldEconomicForumAttilioDiBatistaHead,ActionInitiativesSamGraylingInsightsLead,Work,WagesandJobCreationElselotHasselaarHead,MissionforWork,WagesandJobCreationSaadiaZahidiManagingDirector,WorldEconomicForumAccentureRainerBinderGlobalHumanServicesIndustryLead,AccentureNathanDecetyConsultant,AccentureStrategyHernanEspinosaSeniorManager,AccentureStrategyAllisonHornGlobalTalentStrategyandDevelopmentLead,AccentureMaryKateMorleyRyanTalentandOrganization/HumanPotentialManagingDirector,AccentureChristineNananSeniorManager,AccentureStrategyRyanOakesGlobalHealthandPublicServiceLead,AccentureKathleenO’ReillyGlobalCommunicationsMediaandPracticesChair,AccentureMacarenaOrttSeniorAnalyst,AccentureResearchChristieSmithGlobalTalentandOrganization/HumanPotentialLead,AccentureNataliyaSysenkoManager,AccentureResearchLeilaYosefSeniorPrincipal,AccentureResearchAccentureextendsitsthankstomanyofitscolleaguesforprovidinginsightsandguidancethatassistedintheshapingofthisreport,includingSebastianBonals,MaraFinneganandNicholasWhittall.JobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies231.WorldEconomicForum,“TheJobsConsortium”:https://www.weforum.org/projects/the-jobs-consortium#:~:text=The%20Jobs%20Consortium%20is%20a,to%20prepare%20for%20the%20future.2.Foradefinitionofhumancapital,see:OECD,“WhatIsHumanCapital?”:https://www.oecd.org/economy/human-capital/.3.WorldEconomicForum,“JobsofTomorrow:TheTripleReturnsofSocialJobsintheEconomicRecovery”,2022:https://www.weforum.org/reports/jobs-of-tomorrow-2022/.4.WorldEconomicForum,“GlobalSocialMobilityIndex2020”,2020:https://www.weforum.org/reports/global-social-mobility-index-2020-why-economies-benefit-from-fixing-inequality/.5.UnitedNationsEducational,SocialandCulturalOrganization,“TheWorldNeedsAlmost69MillionNewTeacherstoReachthe2030EducationGoals”,2016:https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000246124/PDF/246124eng.pdf.multi.6.WorldHealthOrganization,“GlobalStrategyonHumanResourcesforHealth:Workforce2030”,2016:https://www.who.int/publications-detail-redirect/9789241511131.7.DeHenau,Jerome,“CostsandBenefitsofInvestinginTransformativeCarePolicyPackages:AMacrosimulationStudyin82Countries”,workingpaper,9March2022:http://www.ilo.org/global/publications/working-papers/WCMS_839252/lang--en/index.htm.8.UnitedNationsClimateChange,“TheParisAgreement”:https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement.9.Lightcast,“LightcastData”:https://www.datocms-assets.com/62658/1656098194-about-lightcast-data.pdf.10.Lightcast,“OpenSkillsTaxonomy”:https://skills.lightcast.io/.11.LinkedIn,“GlobalGreenSkillsReport2022”:https://economicgraph.linkedin.com/research/global-green-skills-report.12.WorldEconomicForum,“FosteringEffectiveEnergyTransition:2021Edition”,April2021:https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Fostering_Effective_Energy_Transition_2021.pdf.13.Whereunmetneedisblank,theeconomyhasatleastashighjobsdensityasthebenchmarkcountries.Duetorounding,figuresmaynotcalculateexactly.EndnotesJobsofTomorrow:SocialandGreenJobsforBuildingInclusiveandSustainableEconomies24WorldEconomicForum91–93routedelaCapiteCH-1223Cologny/GenevaSwitzerlandTel.:+41(0)228691212Fax:+41(0)227862744contact@weforum.orgwww.weforum.orgTheWorldEconomicForum,committedtoimprovingthestateoftheworld,istheInternationalOrganizationforPublic-PrivateCooperation.TheForumengagestheforemostpolitical,businessandotherleadersofsocietytoshapeglobal,regionalandindustryagendas.
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